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Nov 11, 2025
A Numbers Game | November 11, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | November 11, 2025 | Hour 2
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45:50
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN.
0:10
V Sports Betting Network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander, that's Kelly Midlin.
0:18
Still to come, NFL power rankings, Tyler Shoemaker on college football. Um, so much to come, including Matt Cox on college basketball. Covering it all this morning. Already talked some hockey.
0:30
And of course, as always is the case, each and every Tuesday at this hour, Drew Dincic joins us, as is the case right now, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @whale_capper.
0:40
He's the co-host of not one, but two podcasts, The Deep Dive with Andy Molator, and of course, Bet The Edge, NBC Sports, which he does with Jake Croucher. How you doing, Drew? I'm good, man.
0:50
Uh, keep cranking, uh, a unit at a time out of the nice little hole I dug for myself in the NFL, so, uh, you know. Yeah. One, one, you know, brick by brick- Brick by brick...
1:01
getting out of that, uh, getting out of that well. Let me, let me work up to the NFL. Let me, let me talk about a couple things. Well, one, this should go real quick.
1:07
Do you have any interest in this ATP finals that's going on behind me? Any? The ATP finals are on? [laughs] Exactly. That's what I thought. Okay. [laughs] That's, that's, that was my- I thought-... reaction as well.
1:18
You thought what? I thought they started on Saturday. [laughs] You had no idea. When- That's right... when Sinner plays Alcaraz in the final. [laughs] The thing is, I did, I did bet.
1:28
Like, I had Rybakina in the finals against, uh, Sabalenka. I did bet some- Sure... WTA finals. I don't know if there's a match that's even bettable here, like all the way through, through NBA. This is the same location?
1:38
They just, they, they did the women and now they're onto the men? I don't know if it's the same location. No, the- Uh... the men's in, uh- Yeah... the men are in, um, [tsking] uh, Italy somewhere.
1:45
Um- Women were in Riyadh. Yeah, men are in, uh- Turin? Turin, that's right. So it's like a home game for Sinner. Turino if you're Italian. Turino. Um, okay, the other question is, let's go to the NBA.
1:57
Let's, let's be a little happier for you- Ca-... before we get back to the NFL. Oh, yeah. Did you win or lose on the NBA last night, Drew? 'Cause I had a couple go my way that I will remember for a couple months.
2:05
Wait, before you answer- I had two buzzer beaters that knocked me out of a sweep. Ooh. Oh. So- They knocked you out of a sweep, okay. So here's, here's what happened. [laughs] I did well. Yeah, yeah.
2:14
Yeah, okay, not feeling bad for you. Never mind, yeah. [laughs] Gentlemen, for those who don't know- [laughs]... here's what happened in the NBA last night. Bucks came from behind, won late on, on...
2:22
Cooper Flagg had a big night for the, uh- Yep... for the Mavs, but the Bucks come from behind to win that one. Lakers held off the Hornets' late charge for a cover.
2:29
Cade Cunningham, as you mentioned, Kelly, 46 points on 45 shots. Dennis Jenkins of the Pistons, game tying three to force OT. Pistons beat the Wizards 137 to 1f- uh, 35. KP the Cavs 140 to 138 in OT on a lob.
2:46
Magic beat the Blazers on a Desmond Bane walk-off three. And then Wembanyama with the crazy, uh, closing minutes with the, uh, the game tying three, then the go-ahead three with a flourish. It was insane.
2:56
And w- what is it? He became, like, the first person with that stat line last night that he had? I'm sure. Yeah. I'm sure we're gonna say that 18 more times- Every-... this season, but yeah... incredible.
3:03
Absolutely incredible. So which is the one you lost on, Drew? Yeah. The Association stole the show last night, no doubt. Uh, w- we, what were you watching, Monday Night Football? [laughs] That? I was.
3:12
You were watching that? Yes. Uh, you missed Wemby, uh, in Chicago? Man, that was an all-timer. Um, I lost on Portland- Me too... Magic. I had Portland money line. That one stung.
3:24
Uh, especially 'cause, you know, five seconds left you're like, "Oh, well, worst case we're going overtime," and then you're like, "Wait a minute, how did they lose?" [laughs] Yeah.
3:30
What ju- what just hap- in regulation did they lose? How did that happen? Um, it was a, it was a very sloppy ending for Portland. And Portland got me over the weekend too against Miami.
3:39
That was a double, uh, uh, took a, I've taken two bad losses on Blazers now, consecutive games, so maybe I need a timeout from betting Blazers.
3:48
Um, the, uh, other, uh, I had, uh, Washington money line in addition to the plus 11 and a half. Ugh.
3:57
And, um, that buzzer beater that sent that to overtime, and then ultimately, I mean, I, I guess thanks to the Wizards for at least covering the 11 and a half in overtime. You never know.
4:06
Um, but, uh, yeah, that was another absolutely wild game. I, I don't even, I, yeah, you, you covered, like, the highlights. Like, I ha- I have a lot of Lakers futures now, particularly with Pacific.
4:17
I needed them to, uh, you know, come out of that squabble against the Hornets victorious. They do. Um, I have a lot of Bucks futures. I was very happy that they did not bottle that game against the Mavericks.
4:28
Uh, RIP in peace to Nico, uh, Nico Harrison's GM career, but, um, you know, glad that, uh, glad the Bucks found a way past the, uh, the feisty Mavs. Um, I had
4:40
plus seven and a half I think with the Jazz that cliffhanger bet winning, so- Oh, me too. Yeah, we got home on that one. [laughs] That one was, that one was fun.
4:47
Uh, and then, yeah, Spurs winning, uh, was just flat out awesome for a million reasons. Um, Cavs losing was good for me for many reasons. By the way- So it was a good night overall...
4:56
the Wembanyama historical line, by the way, uh, first player in NBA history to record at least 35 points, he had 38, 10 rebounds, five assists, five blocks, and five three-pointers made in a single game. Mm-hmm.
5:10
Never happened before last night. Wow. Victor Wembanyama. I, I think it's like- Yeah... the Jameis Winston 30/30 season, though.
5:15
There're probably five more times during this show I'm gonna bring up that Cade Cunningham missed 31 shots last night. [laughs] It's, it's unbelievable. Cade Cunningham missed 31 shots.
5:24
Before, before I get to your, your plays here tonight, Drew, can I, can I just ask you guys a question? So the, the Clippers- Sure... I know it's early. I know it's early. Yeah. Oh, no, blow it up. Blow it up.
5:32
But they're three and seven. Here. Yeah. Is there a team, and I want you to, I, I, I'm not, I'm not poking fun here, but I do need to bring it up. Is there a team in any sport that experts in a sport
5:48
hype up year after year after year after year that constantly never c- that n- never, ever comes home? I- is there an equivalent in any sport? It just feels like it's, this is the, they are the kings of this category
6:03
Right now, yeah, I would say so...
6:04
shitty I mean, they're, like, um, they're so far from the sum of the parts if you just do pl- like NBA, NBA fairs, from what I can tell you now, are mostly just bottom-up player level, um, you know, correctly coming up with the right distribution for minutes and usage, um, and weighting it all.
6:25
You know, time weighting, time decay, you know, can g- correctly predicting what players are gonna be available. Um, you know, like that, that's kind of the, the way to handicap the NBA from what I can tell you.
6:35
I don't know that I have seen sort of a further eye test, like the team does not perform up to the sum of the parts than the Clippers this year s- especially.
6:44
Um, but, uh, you know, it may just be the, a matter of like a lag between, you know, they, they have an old team.
6:50
They have a lot of guys who are, you know, kind of their player rating is anchored to, you know, performances that are in their past that they really can't match anymore and, um, yeah, the, the Clippers should probably blow it up.
7:03
If they weren't playing in the middle of the night every night and no one was watching- That's right... they would be getting a lot more scrutiny. [laughs] Yes. That's for sure. Yes.
7:09
Um, because this, particularly some of the late game stuff with them has just been like, "What are we doing?" Like, what's going on here? Ty- Ty Lue looks like he's completely distracted.
7:18
He was one of the better coaches in the NBA at one point. He is doing a miserable job so far this season for some reason. And yeah, I mean, uh, Kawhi has taken a huge step backwards defensively.
7:29
Um, the kind of the concept of the team was a fail out of the gate.
7:33
Bringing in Bradley Beal like he was gonna be the key, uh, you know, kind of upgrade over Norm Powell for you at shooting guard was a wildly mistaken move.
7:42
Um, he is a h- you know, a c- a clear and obvious weak link, uh, for them now defensively. You can't really start him.
7:49
I don't think he wants to play off the bench, so you've created a, you know, y- you've brought a situation into the mix there that's a problem.
7:56
Um, yeah, and, and Kawhi might just be y- well past, uh, you know, the, uh, ability to be a championship performer and, you know, to your point about any sport, is there anyone who delivers less? I mean,
8:10
the most important player on the team as of this moment is James Harden, and that's kind of been his story for- Poster child, yeah... as long as he's been in the association.
8:20
So, um, yeah, I, I can't imagine that this thing turns around, and I don't even really know what they do to kind of accelerate a rebuild because they are asset poor for, uh, an eternity if you look down the, uh, uh, at, in, you know, what they've traded away from their future to have this team.
8:35
Uh, it is, uh, kind of, it's quietly flying under the radar as a more toxic situation even than what the Suns had last year, which I thought was gonna go down as all time. Yeah. Yeah.
8:45
A- and you know, that whole Kawhi thing still that, uh, yeah, I know it feels like forever ago 'cause we've had other news in the NBA, but, uh, yeah, yeah, that might still be an issue for them to deal with down the road too.
8:54
Yeah. What are you playing, uh- Yeah, they owe us some trees. Hmm. What are you playing tonight, Drew? Uh, I laid the points with two favorites, two chalky favorites tonight.
9:04
Uh, laid the Nuggets eight and a half, laid the Knicks nine and a half. Um, both of these teams right now are popping for me as clear top five. Um, I have the Denver Nuggets as the best offense in basketball.
9:20
There is a decent gap between them and the next best offense, which is the Cleveland Cavaliers. Uh, and I think in general, um, it's fair to rate the Nuggets as about a plus eight, eight and a half.
9:31
I would have them as plus 8.3. Um, and the Kings on the other hand, uh, I would put at about a minus 5.7 right now. Uh, I'm expecting that Aaron Gordon and, um, Jamal Murray are both goes.
9:44
Uh, I think Sabonis will go, but he is playing through some sort of rib thing right now that's not really helping him, uh, execute at the highest level and, and really the Kings overall are just not rostered well to, uh, defend the Denver.
9:57
I know last time out Kings covered, but, uh, it was a little fluky in my opinion, and I think they are going to get run out of the gym tonight by the Nuggets. So, uh, laid eight and a half there. My fare is closer to 11.
10:09
Uh, and then the Knicks handicap somewhat similar. Uh, f- top four d- offense for me right now, top 12 defense.
10:17
Uh, and just in general, pretty, um, pretty im- impressive, um, kind of step forward from them offensively with the change from Thibodeau to Mike Brown.
10:27
I know that there's a lot made of this and sort of those, particularly if you're watching Knicks games, you maybe are, uh, ready for a break from all the glowing Mike Brown coverage.
10:37
I, uh, I know I certainly don't love to listen to it and mute the game more often than I used to when I was listening to Knicks games. But, um, yeah, it's a, it's a, it's a dang good offense. Uh, they are, uh,
10:50
they're just a different, they're on a different level with Mitchell Robinson on the floor from what I can tell you. Uh, I expect he'll go tonight.
10:56
I know he's k- questionable with an ankle, but, um, he kind of elevates this team to clearly the best team in the Eastern Conference in my opinion.
11:05
Uh, so I don't know if that's gonna hold for the season and his fragility and availability, Mi- that Mitchell Robinson that has mattered so much to them, uh, that it's kinda, that's the first thing you gotta look up before you bet or handicap a Knicks game.
11:17
But, um, but that team's just awesome. All right, we'll come back. Drew will, uh, as always, kind enough to join us, uh, for a couple segments. We'll do NFL. His thoughts, week 10 in the rear view mirror now.
11:29
Week 11 plays, both sides and totals, and a look at my poor performance, Kelly, in our preseason VSiN NFL draft. All right. Injuries abound. [laughs] Oh, boy. These were unfortunate.
11:46
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[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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13:29
That's omahasteaks.com/vsin. Minimum purchase may apply. See site for details. We got tweets, @BeatingTheBook. Uh, always appreciate the, uh, feedback. "Best listeners in the game." This is, uh, let's see here.
13:42
Where, where did I leave off? Oh, Buddhist-- Oh, no, there's more. "Respect the process. Shout out to the defender on your crew. Respect." Oh, uh, talking about Chris Foster. That's right. There you go.
13:53
Shout out to Chris Foster indeed. Buddhist Man. Chris in the audio op he w- he's training, though, just walked through the studio, which made me wonder w- how many jobs is Dardel doing back there, or who's running audio?
14:04
And what's amazing is th-they walk through to go to the bathroom all the time, and we never notice. We never notice. Never notice. Never notice.
14:08
Budd-Buddhist Man, "After staring at the blurred vision of the Neon City Festival Las Vegas poster during the ad reads, I had to check who the edited out bands were." [laughs] We've all done it.
14:18
Who- There's been some dropouts, all right? Who, Bastank, Gym Class Heroes, Level Up, David Clutch, and one last entry listed after Quinn airs on Sunday. I'm guessing Foo Fighters.
14:27
Foo Fighters was supposed to be on that? I don't know. I don't know about that. So... Rich PSM, "It's clearly coaching in Green Bay and Miami.
14:32
See the energy level and results on the drive when Green Bay was down 10 to nothing. See Miami last week, but not even close week one versus Cleveland, et cetera. See New England ever come close to playing like that?"
14:43
Rich PSM with the old "See, see this?" sentence construction. You ever see that? You ever see that happen? Chris Heath, "I don't get the Ty Lue great coach talk. Didn't he get his start as a puppet coach?
14:56
I remember LeBron hanging his towel on his shoulder when he was head coach of the Cavs." Poor Ty Lue. Had LeBron hang the, the towel on his shoulder when he was head coach, and then of course
15:06
Allen Iverson walking over him- Yeah... in the finals. Bullet Godfrey, "Teams that are overhyped every year, Texas football preseason." Oh, that's a good one. Texas football, I, I would s- Oh, that is a good one...
15:15
I would say for years and years it was Oklahoma football too. They had that same kind of thing for a long time. Uh, Bob Charro, "Tush push, make the false start reviewable or part of a expedited review. Problem solved."
15:28
Bobby Gettys, "I'm telling you, Packers are complete frauds. Couldn't resist taking them to miss the playoffs at five to one a week ago.
15:33
Also, Josh Jacobs' fumble cost my g- uh, guillotine fantasy team to lose by 0.9 points. I really hate the Packers right now."
15:40
And KFlow, "As a, uh, tick OCD/anal retentive side, I took the, uh, PDF from Circa, dumped it into Excel, and calculated percentages. I have the larger favorites coming into week 11 in Circa Survivor as follows:
15:53
515 have New England remaining, 731 have Houston remaining, 7-711 have Baltimore remaining, 183," he says, "have Buffalo remaining, and 846 have Pittsburgh remaining." Thank you so much for that, KFlow.
16:06
See what he did there? Mm-hmm. He actually did the whole cross, cross-check on all that stuff, 'cause we don't have the updated yet. Judd O'Connor, "Ever see a grown man naked?" That's from Airplane.
16:16
Same sentence construction. You ever watch Airplane? Yeah, I've s- Leslie Nielsen. I haven't seen it in probably 20 years, but yeah. [laughs] Fantastic film.
16:23
Uh, by the way, real quick before we get back to Drew, I referred to this, the, uh, the VSiN preseason NFL draft. We all got together. It was during a Follow the Money. Like, eight of us got together.
16:31
We did a draft of, of- Like, beginning of August, end of July, something like that? Yeah, like season-long props. Oh, yeah.
16:37
And, uh, my whole strategery, right, was, uh, well, it didn't, it didn't start out this way, but based on where the picks fall, I ended up just going on, like, a full Bengals, uh, attack.
16:47
By the way, Adam Burke's tone on these things is just uncalled for and unnecessary. [laughs] It's very snarky. He had a couple l- good l- one-liners in there. So here are h- half of my picks. You ready for this? Yeah.
16:57
Joe Burrow over passing yards, Joe Burrow over passing touchdowns, Ja'Marr Chase most touchdowns, that's associated with it. Uh, Commanders, Jayden Daniels, anybody, over nine and a half wins.
17:08
Cardinals over eight and a half wins, Kyler Murray. So literally, like, half of mine are all injury lame. The ones that aren't injury lame, Vikings under nine and a half wins. Okay.
17:19
You still got some of your win totals alive. Yeah, Vikings under nine and a half wins. Lions to win the NFC North at plus 160. Okay. Uh, Falcons to win the NFC South, not so much.
17:28
Colts under six and a half wins, already done. And what was... Oh, Trey Hendrickson sack leader. Yeah, he's, he's missed a few games too. Anyway, that's my performance. Not so good.
17:40
Drew Dincic now joins us once again, uh, joining us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. @whale_capper is where you can find him. Uh, how did your week 10 go in the National Football League, sir?
17:51
[sighs] I think I was up a unit, and that's been the same story now for six weeks. [laughs] So, uh, again, clawing my way out of a well that I'd, uh, drilled in the first, uh, three weeks of the season.
18:06
So, um, yeah, overall I don't feel like I have an especially great read, uh, on the, uh, you know, what the outcomes will be. Um, my CLV is very, very strong every week, so I guess the market generally agrees with me.
18:19
Uh, I f- uh, I'm, I, uh- I've get- I'm getting a couple of, uh, bad breaks just with not really seeing some of the injury stuff coming. Like, who was it last week?
18:31
Um, like the entire Cardinals secondary being a surprise out on Friday last week caught me by surprise a little bit there.
18:37
I had a lot of under in that Seahawks game, uh, and basically had to take, you know, eat, eat, eat a, you know, eat a loss with, uh, uh, that under.
18:46
Um, but got a good amount of Seahawks, so you know, little bit of a, little bit of a, uh, kind of long story to say that, you know, I'm treading water. What'd you play this coming week, week 11? Let's see.
19:02
In the, uh, Madrid game, I don't know if you guys know this, but, uh, the Commanders- We do... and the Miami Dolphins will play the first NFL game in Spain. Really? Didn't know that. First Spain game.
19:12
You're welcome, Spain. Um- España. Yeah. I did get a good laugh at, uh, your boy Terry McLaurin. He's going, not gonna play. Just wanted to see Spain. [laughs] He just wanted to, just wanted to do some sightseeing.
19:24
He's like, "I heard Segovia is beautiful." Just wanted to catch a, just wanted to catch a bullfight, you know?
19:28
[laughs] Just wanted to, just wanted to drink a little Madeira at the, uh, at the bar that, uh, Ernest Hemingway used to hang out at, you know. What a- Just wanted to- What a lost season... take in the best of Madrid.
19:37
It's really ridiculous. [laughs] Yeah. Good for him. Also, if, uh, at, for our tennis hardo friends, uh, you know, be sure when you're handicapping a Madrid game, account for the altitude. [laughs] That's right.
19:48
The altitude is... [laughs] Al- also the elevation, Drew. Uh, that as well. The el- yep, the elevation. Yeah. The elevation, account for the elevation. Yeah. Uh, it does, it's not gonna matter in this game.
19:57
Uh, I do like the over in that one, though. Uh, I think, uh, these both, uh, I'm not trusting anything that we saw with the Miami Dolphins defense standing up against the Bills. Um, that was a fluky performance to me.
20:07
I think this unit is still very gettable. Uh, and I think Commanders, um, you know, their ability to run, particularly on this Dolphins defense, is gonna be, uh, what keeps them in this game.
20:17
Uh, I don't have an opinion on the spread one way or the other. I think this probably closes three. Uh, but over 47 and a half looks great to me in the, uh, early morning kickoff there.
20:27
Um, as we get into the main slate Sunday, I put t- I took a under, I sold down to under 44 even, uh, in Packers-Giants.
20:35
Um, I am, am very, uh, uh, in agreement with Bobby on Packers likely to miss the playoffs is, is a fun, uh, angle.
20:45
Uh, if you didn't already catch the news there, uh, key offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins suffered a broken bone yesterday, and he will miss the remainder of the season. So- Oof...
20:55
uh, a lot of that, uh, Jordan Love under pressure throwing up questionable passes that you saw yesterday against the Eagles, uh, probably carries forward, uh, as they take on some violent pass rushes these next couple of weeks.
21:07
So, under 44 between the Packers-Giants, uh, expecting Russell Wilson goes for the Giants there, and that the Giants score less than 10 points. The Carolina Panthers, I took three and a half with them at minus 112.
21:19
Um, happy to be against the Falcons, traveling home from Berlin, uh, with the quality of play you're getting right now from Michael Penix. Uh, definitely also think that this Falcons defense is being solved to a degree.
21:31
Uh, you can run on them, and, uh, they are sustaining a couple of key injuries to that secondary, which means passing on them may get easier as well. So, uh, like the Panthers catching three and a half there.
21:42
I took the Bears on the money line against the Vikings. Can't square this line at all.
21:46
I think these two teams are very, very similarly power rated, uh, and, uh, don't have a ton of home field advantage here for Minnesota. So, uh, took Bears money line at plus 145. Uh, I took the, uh, Buffalo Bills.
22:00
I'm the buy low here on Bills at minus five, minus 114. Uh, and I'm the buy low here on the Pittsburgh Steelers at minus four and a half, minus 110. Wow. Uh, we are oppo on Minnesota, Chicago.
22:11
If, if the Green Bay Packers are to miss the playoffs, who's making it? The Bears? Uh, there's very real, there's a very real world where the Niners steal a wild card spot.
22:24
The Rams and the Seahawks are both in, in my opinion. Um, the Bears and the Packers right now, I have about 0.1 wins separating them, projecting the rest of the schedule. Green Bay, I'm projecting nine and a half wins.
22:36
Uh, and Chicago, I'm projecting 9.9 wins, so actually expecting Chicago to finish ahead of Green Bay right now, uh, with a small margin.
22:45
Uh, and again, this is, you know, hot off the press kinda news while, you know, k- trying to backfill, uh, offensive line numbers for Green Bay in the absence of Jenkins, who matters.
22:55
So, um, right now I would project the, basically a toss-up between Seattle, Philly, and the Rams for your one seed in the NFC. Uh, and then there's a pretty decent gap, uh, where your next best team is the Lions.
23:10
Uh, and then another big gap, and you're at, uh, Tampa Bay, uh, and then the wild card chasers. So Green Bay, uh, there's a couple outs here for Green Bay not to make it, I think.
23:22
And, uh, you know, the fact that they banked that tie is also not helping them. Yeah. Uh, the tie, well, again, the only real win
23:30
against a good team, that very first game against Detroit, when Detroit had their, uh, two new coordinators for the first time. Mm-hmm. Every other win, not very impressive.
23:39
Washington, Cincinnati, Arizona, Pittsburgh, the tie with Dallas, and then the losses to Cleveland, Carolina, and then Philly last night. Drew, thank you as always, man. Appreciate it. All right, best of luck, guys.
23:50
Drew Dincic, everybody, @whale_capper. Deep dive, must podcast listen. Coming back with Jeff Erickson next. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:06
Back on A Numbers Game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Derek Stevens, Shangri-La in the desert. Skill Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Producer number nine, so much more than a producer.
24:16
We were just, uh, talking about the, uh, the ATP finals that was going on before us, and, and you- [laughs] I'm fat... I love s- your comment was great.
24:23
W- why does it matter almost if the women were playing in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia?
24:26
Which is its own set of problems to begin with, and then Elena Rybakina, who we did have for VSiN Pro subscribers at vsin.com/picks, at plus 147 to win the finals.
24:36
Um, she wo- she refused to shake the hands of the WTA commissioner because her brainwashing boyfriend, it's a whole thing. It's just a disaster. Yeah. The whole thing's a disaster. Yeah.
24:45
And then the men are playing in, in Italy. It might as well be the court in Riyadh 'cause- Well, they, they're doing the same lighting. Yeah, it's horrible. That's why I asked you and Drew that.
24:51
I was all confused- It's horrible... 'cause it's, it's the NBA cup lighting. It's let's light up the, the, the court- Yes... and all of the stands are dark. It's terrible.
24:59
And as I mentioned, you know, the, the WTA finals, at least there was a couple matches you could bet. This one, as Drew joked, [laughs] as Drew joked, it doesn't start till Alcaraz plays Sinner. There's nothing to bet.
25:11
It's just there's nothing truly bettable, at least not yet anyway. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, at this time every week, Jeff Erickson is kind enough to join us.
25:17
He is a founder of Rotowire, um, co-host of Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM 87, Rotowire senior editor. You can follow him on Twitter at Jeff with a J_Erickson.
25:28
He joins us now with that clever little Rotowire sign that he and, uh, Nick Whelan have care, uh, calculatingly or strategically positioned behind him. How you doing, Jeff? I'm doing well.
25:39
Uh, eager to talk about a upcoming good week here. Although, it's, it's funny.
25:43
I think we've got one amazing primetime game and two awful ones that we have to, uh, grit through on Thursday and Monday night to, to be able to pay for the Sunday night game for us, emotionally at least.
25:52
Well, we just, uh- Yeah. Yeah. If only there were two being played at the exact same time at about 4:00 Eastern that we could maybe flex into one of those, but no, no, no. No. We just had movement on- Yeah, exactly...
26:04
we just had movement on the Eagles you said? Well, we had, so L- Lions, Eagles got reposted this morning. Yeah. But man, it was lighting up like a Christmas tree right at the end.
26:11
And it ended Drew's segment of just, it is two and a half, we are out to two and a half on, on Philly, and there are circus at two and a half minus 120. Like, there's no way we see a three in this game, is there? Mm.
26:23
I mean on the Lions if we do. Mm, feeling like it. What, and what did you say off air, Jeff, about this? S- uh, stay away from it now because I wanna see what's h- going on with Lane Johnson. Oh. Yeah.
26:33
Uh, I know he came back- I agree...
26:33
into the game, but he was really ginger when he came back, and he's such a, the with and without numbers with him are so big for the Eagles that I really wanna watch that one, monitor that one carefully.
26:42
Uh, before I really, uh, so for now, for me, it's kind of a stay away.
26:46
I, I'm with Kelly though, that it seems like under two and a half seems right, but, uh, you know, obviously, if, if Lane Johnson's out, then I'm gonna be concerned. All right.
26:54
Let's, uh, let's get to one of the games we just mentioned, which is the Seahawks and the Rams, one of the marquee match-ups of the weekend. What a weekend of NFL, uh, football it is. You have some thoughts on this one.
27:05
Yeah. I, first of all, I'm excited about this game. This should be f- uh, we should be flexing already. Yes. We should ma- you know, flex this into Monday night. Flex it.
27:12
Put, uh, Dallas, Vegas on, like, Tuesday at 3:00 in the morning. I don't care, uh, whatever you wanna do with that game. But, uh, give us a primetime game for this one here. I, g- the good thing is we get it twice.
27:22
Uh, but I'm really excited about this game. Seattle is sneakily better on the road than they are at home, if that's, uh, if you can imagine that.
27:29
Uh, under Mike McDonald, I think they've lost once on the road in two years. Uh, I, I really love, uh, lot, a lot of the things he does to get this team ready.
27:36
So I like the, uh, Seattle plus two and a half side of this game. I really just, I'm excited to see this game. I think we have maybe two of the four elite teams in the league in this g- in this g- in this match-up here.
27:46
And Kelly, you know, I did the, uh, the, the, the summer training camp with you. Mm-hmm. And I was down on Seattle then. I was wrong. I gotta come out here and say I was wrong about Seattle.
27:56
My theory of the case was that the Seattle offensive line was patchwork. Wasn't very good last year. Put Geno under a ton of pressure, and Sam Darnold under pressure is a bad formula.
28:06
Seattle has the second-best quarterback sack rate in the NFL at 4%, just a little bit over 4%. Last year was at 8%. They've done an amazing job turning around that offensive line. Uh, it's been a while, Jeff.
28:17
You know I was right there with you. Currently, I'm just looking at my open NFL futures. I do have Seahawks to finish fourth in the NFC West at plus 120, and then the Seahawks six to one to win the NFC.
28:27
So yes, I've come around as well, Jeff, and was dead wrong on them. Well done. Good pivot. Good, [laughs] good pivot, yeah. Good pivot. Let's see. Um. One's definitely a loser. [laughs] Yes. Um, okay.
28:36
Let's talk about the Bears and the Vikings, which is not k- which is not one of the marquee match-ups, but is interesting nonetheless. Yeah, I think this is a fascinating game.
28:46
Uh, you know, it's a t- interesting perception here because two weeks ago, you know, we're, we're thrilled about what the Vikings were able to do coming off the bye, going into Detroit, beating, or coming, coming in on a short, uh, little extra, extra week Detroit coming off the bye.
28:59
Beating Detroit in Detroit and doing it because they dominated the line play. Turn around to, uh, you know, week 10 against the Ravens and all those mistakes that they made, all those turnovers that they committed there.
29:11
Uh, it, this was, you know, all the false starts that they had at home. Whew. It was a, it was a such a bizarre game. Eight of 'em. Uh, that now the perception of the Vikings is, oh, well, this is a mess of a team again.
29:21
And meanwhile, the Bears are in this era of good feelings. Two comeback victories, wild circumstances. I'm concerned that the Bears had to come back in the first place in both of these games.
29:30
Um, I, I'm really, really like the, like, uh, the Vikings on this one here. I, I, I think that there- Me too... this is a, what would we do if this, this game was played, you know, four weeks ago at the start?
29:41
You know, I think we'd be heavily on the Vikings. I'm gonna be on the Vikings on this one here. Me and you are simpatico on that one. I like the Vikings as well. I bet 'em at two and a half yesterday.
29:49
Um, let me ask you a fantasy question in the interim though. However, the, we'll, we'll just, I'll just pump the brakes on our, on our Vikings love for a second, but ask the fantasy question of- Sure... with J.J.
29:59
McCarthy, you know, being J.J. McCarthy-ish, which is to say we don't really know quite what we have in him. His play has been sort of, uh, how can I put this, janky, I believe is the, uh, correct, technical term. Sure.
30:11
[laughs] Um, what about Justin Jefferson, uh, fantasy owners? Should they be concerned? And I'll even say to this, if you watch that game, not only was it the eight false starts, not only was J.J.
30:20
McCarthy kinda janky, but there was a couple 50/50 balls in there where Justin Jefferson didn't come down with them either. So it w- Yeah... it was like he was a weird distracted as well. Yep.
30:31
Uh, it, it, you can't deny that. Uh, it was. H- Weird he and Jordan Addison were both highly inefficient in this game. Uh, and meanwhile, Jalen Naylor had himself a day. Go figure. Yeah.
30:42
Uh, I think this is just ebbs and flows of the league a little bit. And keep in mind, all the conclusions we're making about J.J. McCarthy are done after four starts in the NFL. Absolutely. Four. Yep.
30:50
Uh, and, and only two with both Jefferson and Addison together. One good, one not so good. Uh, I, I am concerned, without a doubt, fantasy-wise.
30:59
You know, he, he's not in that same tier that he was to start the season, but he's still at auto-start mode. He's still, like, I think he's a buy low. I don't think Jefferson's skills have changed at all.
31:11
I think it was, it was a, a bad week for the Vikings and for him, and definitely for McCarthy. Uh, I think it's get well against these Bears corners that are, are really truly dreadful.
31:20
Uh, I, I, I think that this is a game where they get right offensively. And totally with you on McCarthy.
31:24
We, we have no idea what we have in him, or just based on what we've seen so far, no conclusion can be made either to the good or to the bad. Uh, Carolina is taking on Atlanta.
31:34
Somehow Carolina's 5-5, and somehow Atlanta's 3-6. Uh, the total here is set...
31:40
And by the way, the Falcons are three-and-a-half point favorites [laughs] in this game, which is just amazing to me that it's only three and a half, but that's what they, that's, they are who they are.
31:49
Total's at 42 and a half. You have a thought on the total? Yeah, I like the under on this one here. I think the Falcons defense is actually legitimately decent.
31:57
Uh, I know Jonathan Taylor put them in the hurt cycle, but look at the pass rush they've been able to generate this year. This is not a Falcons team that we're n- normally accustomed to seeing.
32:06
I think this is just a, "Okay, you got crushed by Jonathan Taylor," sort of result that happened last week. Now, maybe coming back from Berlin, not having any extra rest on this is, is a factor.
32:15
But do you really think Bryce Young, who's Bryce Young, can exploit that? I, I, I don't. Maybe it's a, you know, it's Rico Dowdle all day long. I, but I, I think, you know, the, the word is out.
32:25
Just do- don't let Dowdle kill you, and you'll be okay against the Panthers. Yeah.
32:30
Uh, and even if the f- you know, we don't know what version of Michael Penix we're gonna get, and I think that's really the wild card here.
32:36
You know, we, we no longer can even say, "Oh, the Falcons, they're better at home," 'cause of the Miami game a couple weeks ago. We don't even have that to lean back on. But I, I, I think you, you have a...
32:45
If Drake London is healthy, that's good enough. I actually kinda like the Falcons side as well. Uh, but I, I really don't think Carolina's gonna put up more than 17 points in this game. Uh, I, I just don't.
32:56
Uh, and I think it could be, like, 13. I, I just, maybe I'm overreacting to just a horrific game against the Saints, but I, I'm, I'm just kinda done with Bryce Young. Yeah. I think we do know, unlike J.J.
33:07
McCarthy, who's only had four starts, I think we do know who Bryce Young is. I think we knew about him early. I think we definitely know about him now.
33:13
The one, Michael Penix for me is the one that I'm starting to learn about, and I don't really like what I'm learning, if you know what I mean. Like, I just, I, my com- Yeah...
33:20
my comment the other day was whatever the op- the opposite of pocket presence is, that's what he's got. That's my observation of him. Absolutely.
33:27
I mean, you saw it, uh, after the pits drop on the first drive, you saw Penix just not even see that rush coming from the blind side there. Yeah. Big turnover in that game. Uh, big sequence of events.
33:37
That pits drop was, you know, put that in a museum too. That was, that was awful. Uh, just really [laughs] truly awful. And, you know, he had some other throws.
33:43
He missed, uh, on Mooney a couple times, some really, really bad throws. Penix, he can make, you know, throw that laser. He'll tease you. He's got the arm strength, just doesn't have the discretion. That's right.
33:53
Definitely has the strength. Um, and I'll, I'll just end it with, by the way, I'm with you. I may end up with a bet on the Falcons. Certainly if it got to three, I would bet 'em immediately.
34:00
Uh, but I may bet 'em anyway at three and a half. A fantasy question related to this.
34:04
As great as Drake London has been, as great as Pitts is, as great as, uh, their skill position players are, obviously Bijan, Tyler Allgeier seems like the most reliable of all of them.
34:14
Is he a viable flex option in fantasy? He's, he's always our flex option. Every time you read a Waiver Wire article, there's Tyler Allgeier, 33% rostered in leagues.
34:23
You, he, he, he is the money in the banana stand of, of fantasy running backs. He's always there for you. He's always there as someone that you can kinda plug to. A quality player. They like him as a closer.
34:33
You can't count on him week to week, but you can count him on your bye weeks and injury weeks. Yeah, as a closer, as a goal line guy, just... And tremendous, not even as a goal line guy. Uh, thank you so much, Jeff.
34:42
Always a pleasure. You bet. Take care, guys. Jeff Erickson, everybody, @Jeff_Erickson. RotoWire co-founder. Coming back, our power rankings next on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
34:55
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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35:29
Access it all with a VSiN Pro subscription at vsin.com/subscribe. We got tweets of Betting the Book. Jim Campbell, "Most overhyped team every season?" We're talking about that.
35:38
Is there any team more overhyped than the Clippers are any season, any sport? He says the Toronto Maple Leafs. When was the last time they won the Cup? Uh, there are... We, we started to get these tweets. Yeah. Yeah.
35:49
1967, by the way, is the answer to that question. Maple Leafs. I mean, don't the Mets fall, fall into this discussion? Well, okay. L- let's qualify this.
36:00
No team that has had no history of success, of real success, that, quote-unquote, "experts" hype up on a yearl- like, in other words, the teams you're mentioning, the Mets- Yeah...
36:13
I mean, they've gotten to World Series in the last decade, like 10 years ago, right? Um, you know, the, the, the Leafs have certainly gotten deep in the NHL playoffs.
36:21
Have, easy to get into the playoffs, but they've, they've gotten, they've had their runs, right? The, the Clippers, what, what are we talking about with them every year?
36:29
But every year we're sold this thing, and it's like, "Okay. No. Stop
36:33
So I do think, I, I do think, and even Texas and Oklahoma in college football, they've had some successes, but it's just like people wanna canonize them back to their previous glory. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
36:42
The Texas one was a great call-out. Um, Jim Camel adds, "By the way, 70-plus miles into my 100 Veterans Day fundraiser." There you go, Jim. There you go, Jim. You're probably, that was 30 minutes ago.
36:53
He's probably done with it by now. Yeah. DurbinP24, "Does this bold coaching"... Oh, he's talking about Aaron Glenn.
36:58
So Aaron Glenn, I don't know if you all caught this, he has not named the starting quarterback for Thursday Night Football. This is like a, uh [laughs]... Keep it close to the vest.
37:05
This is like a very strategic thing from Aaron Glenn. [laughs] And Durbin- This is an advantage, Gil. DurbinP24 says, uh, "Does this bold coaching strategy concern you for Thursday night game?
37:14
Would you trust this guy to develop a rookie quarterback? Will we see 3XL May again on the Megapod?" Oh yeah, there's a... [laughs] Was that, was that you who sent that jersey, by the way? Who sent that jersey?
37:23
It worked, by the way. This is awesome. I'm on the, I'm on the Patriots this week, so. Um, JC562076. Real, real, real quick, though. Yeah. On the, on the Jets. Yes. There's not a decision to be made, right?
37:35
Like you, you... I mean, I'd hate, I hate to say this again, but like you gotta figure out what Justin Fields is, if anything, right? Speaking, speaking of a guy that we do know.
37:44
Like we were just talking about Jeff Erickson. Like, like, but, like- But, yeah... why not keep running him out there, right? But why not? 100, 100%. Trott Taylor is not the future of this team.
37:52
J- Not saying that Justin Fields is, but... You are correct. I agree. Yeah, Aaron Glenn, I don't think you're really sneaking that, that one by anybody here. What a strategic maneuver.
38:01
JC562076, "Always money in the banana stand." That is a crazy underrated reference. What was that reference from, by the way? I don't know if it w- we got one tweet.
38:09
I don't know if it was directly from Arrested Development, but yeah. Oh, yeah. Brian Thompson says, "I feel like the Arrested Development reference of there's always money in the banana stand went over your guys' heads."
38:16
It did mine. I'm gonna take a little heat here. Yeah. O- Overrated show. Ooh. I don't find it that funny. Here's what I would say about- It gets old quick. Here's what I would say about Arrested Development.
38:27
I think you're onto something with it. Yeah. Uh- The tone gets old to me quick... the, it was so, um, such a well-written, quick-acted, heady show. Agreed. Agree. Right?
38:43
That I can appreciate it for what it is, but it never made me wanna watch it more than for five minutes at a time. Thank you, Gil. You're welcome. Thank you, Gil Alexander. Yeah. That was perfectly said. Yeah.
38:54
I could make it through six episodes. I could laugh along the way, and then just be like, "Yeah, I'm, I'm good." Yeah. "I'm good." Can I tell you something else that I think is, uh, overrated?
39:01
And I, I feel bad saying this, because I met him once many years ago when he was just out of Howard University and I was a, a young pup in DC.
39:09
And I, and I love, and I, Gus was, was, we had a great interaction at the time. Gus Johnson. [sighs] Did you, did you hear his call on the Mendoza to, uh- Nope... Omar Cooper touchdown? Nope.
39:21
I just, and I've said this before on the air, I just feel like early in his play-by-play career, he was authentically awesome, right?
39:27
I, I harken back to Gus Johnson and Len Elmore doing the Gonzaga upset at the hands of UCLA when Adam Morrison was on the court crying, and it was like a sports broadcasting opera- Mm-hmm... between the two.
39:39
And Len Elmore fr- I believe was the first time anybody ever said, "Are you kidding me?" Right? And now every announcer says, "Are you kidding me?" When they're watching a football game.
39:48
Um, and then on, in football broadcast, Gus was phenomenal, and always the, the great finishes ended up ending in his lap.
39:54
I just feel like, and I've said this before, that he has, he's, he's almost read the press clippings and is now doing a caricature of himself. Yeah. Yeah. And so with this Men- I don't know if you saw it.
40:05
See, I li- I-... I like Gus, but I've always agreed with you on this point too. I, I just felt like on this one, so Mendoza throws it to Cooper.
40:11
Indiana keeps their undefe- undefeated season alive on an amazing play, and it was like, uh, I'm not gonna do it justice 'cause I can't get my voice to where he did, but he's like, "Mendoza in trouble. He's out."
40:23
Like there's a one, one comment that made no sense. He's like, "He's out." [laughs] There's a pause, and he's like, "Touchdown. Wow." [laughs] "Omar Cooper, unbelievable."
40:34
[laughs] I don't know who are you- Give him the Heisman Trophy now... I don't know who you're sounding like. [laughs] It's not Gus Johnson. Well, he couldn't even, it was just like, it was so distracting for the moment.
40:42
Anyway, I thought, speaking of overhype- Oh, man... I thought that, I thought that was distracting and not so awesome.
40:47
Did you see, before we get to, uh, power rankings, we, we almost buried the headline in terms of a betting thing last night. Do you know what I'm, you know where I'm going with this? No, I do not.
40:55
I actually have something to bring up on this. We had the American and National League rookies of the year announced last night. Oh, yes. Yeah. So Nick Kurtz wins it easily un- I wanna, I think unanimously even.
41:06
Was that, am I, am I mistaken about that? With, for the Oakland Athletics. I have to check that. Um, he wins it going away, and he of course was the prohibitive favorite all along to win this.
41:15
And then in the National League, we all thought, at least based on the betting market, right? Based on the betting market, I think Cade Horton got to about minus 260-ish at his peak.
41:28
We thought based on the betting market, Cade Horton was gonna walk away with the National League Rookie of the Year. Guess what?
41:34
Your friendly neighborhood reminder, your PSA, your public service announcement, that award markets may not reflect reality at all. And so here we have it that Cade Horton didn't even come close. Really?
41:47
Well, here's the thing. Uh, let me, let me qualify that. So, and Calci had this, right? The prediction markets always know. Yeah, I was just tracking it when, when Montasono was texting us.
41:57
Drake Baldwin, who ends up winning it, was at 99% about an hour and a half before- Yeah... the award was announced. Somebody knew something. Drake Bald was at 99%. And, and our guy, right, Horton, he was at 1%.
42:11
And the final, I, I, I missed the, uh, the final voting on this. One person didn't even have Cade Horton in his top five. Yikes. [laughs] So- And yes, Kurtz was unanimous. Kurtz was unanimous.
42:24
One person did not have Cade Horton even in their top five. But it, it's, uh, it ends up being Drake Baldwin.
42:32
So yeah, when we get to football awards, and when we talk about these awards, and we talk about these markets, just remember that's a handicap of human beings voting It has no bearing sometimes on actual reality. Mm-hmm.
42:43
Mm-hmm. Just a PSA. The, uh, the other one I wanna point out real quick, 'cause you brought this up a little bit yesterday with a couple games. Man, there were...
42:50
This was a wild week in the NFL of games getting steamed at close of certain sides, and, oh, man, almost every single one of them came through. Like, we talked about the Chargers/Steelers. That- Yep...
43:02
steam going heavy to the Chargers side late. Steam worked out. That worked out easily. Yeah. Uh, Philly getting love all week, right? That ends up coming through, not that it was, you know, an easy win or anything.
43:12
Seahawks, right? They started getting, uh, love early, early, and then late again in the week. Drew brought up s- uh, some of the Arizona injuries.
43:19
But that was kinda, kinda an oddity in the NFL that you don't always see every single week. By the way, uh, Jason Stark says, "It doesn't seem like the MLB Awards snuck up on us this year.
43:29
They have us so trained to think awards aren't until December." Yeah, they, they s- they solved that crime. They heard what we were saying. They did a good job. Yeah. Excellent work. They heard what we were saying.
43:37
Uh, time for our NFL power rankings. Plug it in. [electronic music] All right. My one, two, and three all stay the same. Seahawks, there's the birds. Seahawks blow out the, uh, Arizona Cardinals.
43:54
Rams blow out the Niners. Lions blow out the Skins. Seahawks, Rams, Lions. One, two, three, they remain the same. Colts go up to four after their win in Berlin over the Falcons. Eagles, after last night...
44:07
And listen, do you trust anybody in one game more than you do the Philadelphia Eagles? I don't know that you, you can. Defending Super Bowl champions. They're, they're up to five for me. They bounce back up.
44:17
Chiefs, um, sort of with the, with the drift, go up to six here on the, uh, on the bye week. Packers drop three spots. I, I already went through twice who they've beaten this year and who they've lost to.
44:32
Literally, you cannot put them higher than seven based on that resume. Bills drop to eight after the loss to the, uh, Dolphins. They l- they drop two spots. Patriots, you're in. You're number nine. Yeah. Same here.
44:45
Mazel tov, Patriots and Drake May. Who'd you bump out? Buccaneers. Just too many injuries. Oh, that's who we both bumped out, Bucs. Yeah. Who the Patriots beat, right? Yep.
44:52
And then the B- the Broncos, even though they beat the Raiders, they, they stay the same at 10. You, sir. Yeah. Uh, same 10 teams, 'cause I bumped out the Bucs as well.
45:00
I, I guess I pun- punished the Packers [laughs] even more. You're number 10 now, Green Bay. Yeah. That's right where you're at. Uh, Broncos at nine, same thinking there. Patriots go in. Dropped the Bills down to seven.
45:11
I left the Eagles at six. Um, Chiefs five. Colts go up to four. This was my week, I guess, to finally be like, "All right, you've been the most impressive team in the AFC. Let me actually, uh, put you up there."
45:22
[upbeat music] So they're number four. Lions three remains the same. Uh, Rams two, Seahawks one. All the same from last week. All right. There you go. [clears throat] Almost went Gus Johnson there.
45:32
Dude, this, this NFC's gonna be fun down the stretch, man. Fun is one word for it. Speaking of which, why don't we take a look at some Super Bowl match-ups,
45:41
see how wacky these numbers are, or non-wacky, on the other side. It's the Numbers Game right here at Betspretty Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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