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Nov 14, 2024
A Numbers Game | November 14, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | November 14, 2024 | Hour 1
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:36
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. So many ways to take us in. We just require one of them, whichever way you choose. We appreciate it.
0:47
Thanks for making us part of your morning each and every morning. It's Gil Alexander. It is producer number nine, so much more than a producer, the great Kelly Bidlin, live from Circa, freshly shorn.
0:57
Did you cut your hair? I did. I got a haircut yesterday, yes. You're looking good. Last time, Brian Ortega was stalking me at, uh, the barbershop, so, uh, we'll see, we'll see if maybe he got a haircut yesterday too.
1:07
Brian Ortega was? Yeah. We, we-- apparently, we get our hair cut at the same place- Yeah... but different barbers. Oh. And I was like, "Why don't you just... Why don't you use my barber?" Okay. Yeah.
1:16
Does the whole shop talk about Ortega? Like, "Wow, that guy's got a lot of opinions." No, it's one of those, it's like, well, you b- you, you went to Truman once, and it's like different- Oh... suites, right? Yes.
1:23
It's like private suites. That's right. Yeah. Sure did. Glad we got that out of the way. That's right. Cleared it up. Um, ladies and gentlemen, uh, it is Thursday. You know what that means. Crackman unscripted.
1:31
Bill Krackomberger will join us hour number two here on the show. Uh, this hour, a, uh, an eclectic bunch of things. Tim Murray will join us, talk college football.
1:40
Um, he's got some thoughts on Notre Dame and beyond, I'm sure, uh, Notre Dame being his squad. It's Zach & Crack, to be honest with you.
1:47
So it's Zach Cohen also, uh, talking football with us, pro college, perhaps some NBA as well. Maybe he leads with the NBA. Uh, we got our Larceny Bourbon Smooth Bet of the Week. That's coming up.
1:57
Uh, but I wanna do a couple things here also, uh, coming up. Uh, we, we had mentioned this earlier in the week.
2:02
Someone had suggested, or I don't know, somehow our conversation veered towards, "Hey, uh, let's do a, uh, a ranking of backup quarterbacks." So I, uh, I did that. I, I was wondering where you got this from. Oh, yeah.
2:12
I missed that. Oh, you were here. You were sitting right here when- Yeah, I know. It was, uh- Make sure- It was, it was a little rocky earlier in the week, yeah. Yeah, he can take the reser- he can hold the reservation.
2:21
He just... Wait, wait, you can take the reservation. You just can't hold the reservation. [laughs] No, we were talking about this, so I ranked the, uh, top 15 backup quarterbacks in the NFL, and can I tell you something?
2:28
I did this lovingly. Like, I went through all the numbers, career, recent, like, so there's a couple third stringers in the, in the top 15. Oh, as there should be. As there should be. Yeah, yeah, as there should be.
2:38
But as, as it turned out, I wasn't, like, gunning for it or anything, so we'll do that coming up. Um- I was dying laughing as I got, like, a, I got a text from you for, like, 45 minutes- [laughs]...
2:46
before I was gonna go to sleep probably. It was like, "You wanna rank backup quarterbacks tomorrow?" [laughs] I was like, "Go for it. I'll make... I'll comment on your list."
2:52
[laughs] Kelly, Kelly's one of these people, just to let you all know, Kelly's one of these people who he, he doesn't really say that he has a cutoff time at night, but he kind of establishes it passively.
3:01
So if you text Kelly after, I don't know, 7:20 PM, let's just say- [laughs]... you get no response whatsoever. I'm like, "I get it, Kelly. You're all powered."
3:09
I get a weird, I get a weird sleep schedule, man, 'cause, like, there's some NBA nights that keep me up way late, and then I take advantage of nights I can go to bed early. Yeah. I gotta wake up at 4 AM.
3:16
Anyway, someone's gotta keep the, uh, ship afloat, so, uh, we're gonna do backup quarterbacks coming up.
3:21
Uh, I also have the K- the Kliff Kingsbury slide, what I'm affectionately calling the Kliff Kingsbury slide, 'cause that came up this week, and I get it. Kliff Kingsbury no longer a head coach.
3:29
Most sh- most of this has to do with his time at Texas Tech and with the Arizona Cardinals as the head man, but the last two years as the, uh, senior offensive assistant, I believe his, uh, co- his, uh, title was, don't hold me to that, at USC, and then this year as an offensive coordinator.
3:43
We'll just go through it, 'cause it's one of the elements of tonight's Commanders-Eagles game, which, again, is the Eagles minus three and a half. This was a game that I, uh, guessed at three on Guessing Lines on Monday.
3:55
I think the half is, uh, mighty disrespectful. Uh, total's at 48 and a half, but you could absolutely make a case for both teams here, and I'd like to make that case for both teams. Shall we? Let's do it.
4:06
Um, first place on the line, of course, in the NFC East. Something's gotta give, Kelly Bidlin. Something's gotta give.
4:12
Uh, the case for Philly is probably the case you're gonna hear more often than not today, uh, no matter where you turn.
4:19
Winners of five games in a row by an average of, uh, 16.4 points per game, allowing fewer than 300 total net yards in each of those five wins.
4:30
Um, get into some of the numbers, 55.01% run play percentage, so they run the ball more than they pass, which ranks second in the NFL in the running game, averaging 176 yards per game.
4:42
And, uh, Philly also top two in rushing yards. That would make them top two in rushing yards. Rushing touchdowns per game, they're second as well. And oh, what do you know? The Commodores don't match up well with that.
4:53
Uh, Commies, uh, among the worst units in the NFL against the run, 4.8 yards per rush, 142.1 yards per game permitted, both 28th in the 32, uh, team National Football League.
5:05
And over the last three weeks, they've allowed over 500 total rushing yards to three kinda, you know, meh rushing outfits, some would say, in the Bears and the Giants and the Steelers.
5:17
Eh, Steelers I would, uh, I would beg to differ on that. Um, otherwise put, by the way, since week five, the Steelers rank sixth in... Oh, excuse me, though.
5:25
The C- the, uh, Commodores, they rank sixth in pass defense at Aaron Schatz's EPA over there at FTN, but against the run, 24th. So none of that matches up well when you look at those numbers.
5:38
Um, Eagles now rank seventh in defensive DVOA. After a rocky start to the year, since their week five bye, they, uh, have the best defense in the league by EPA per play and success rate.
5:50
Uh, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been great as, uh, difference makers in that defense. And, um- The Commodores have faced the fifth easiest schedule of opposing defenses this year as well.
6:02
Uh, Steelers are the only, the, the second above average pass defense by DVOA that they've faced all season.
6:07
Daniels, Jayden Daniels, has not been the same under pressure this year, ranking 31st out of 37 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted completion rate, 58%, whereas Philly ranks 10th in pass rush win rate this year.
6:19
So all of that points to the Philadelphia Eagles.
6:23
But I must say, there is a case for, uh, for Washington here, and one of them starts with, I don't know if y- you care about such things, but for, you know, recent history in the NFL, Philly has been a really good football team.
6:34
Obviously, they got to two Super Bowls, uh, winning one of them.
6:37
Washington has been, how can I put this, sucky at football until the arrival of Jayden Daniels, and yet in that history, it's weird with division rivalries. Philly has not exactly blown them off the football field.
6:49
Philly is 11 and eight straight up against Washington over the last five years. They just, for whatever reason, Washington gives them fits even when Washington is in the worst of times.
7:01
This year, um, Washington's defense was... The, the case for Washington is that last week against Pittsburgh, they actually didn't look that bad.
7:08
Uh, against the run, they gave up just 3.3 yards per rush, um, on the Steelers 43 rushing attempts.
7:16
That bodes well against the Eagles, um, as we said, who rely on the, on the running game, 55% of its offensive yards coming from the ground. Uh, Commanders' defense, second in the league. There we go.
7:26
I said it, Commanders.
7:27
Commanders' defense, second in the league in pressure rate at 40%, fourth best league-wide in pass rush win rate, and Hurts' passer rating and completion percentage crater from 114.5 and 79%, uh, when the pocket is clean, to 80.3 and 52% when he's pressured.
7:45
Now, we always talk when we do these Thursday, uh, games, we always talk about what is sustainable, what might regress to the mean. Defensively inside the red zone, we always like to focus on that.
7:55
Washington's defense has not been good in the red zone with a touchdown percentage of 70%. That means that teams score a touchdown 70% of the time when they are in the red zone against Washington's defense.
8:05
That ranks 30th in the NFL, third to last. Eagles, on the other hand, defensively, third in the NFL defensively in the red zone, 42.3%. Just 42.3% of opposing teams scoring touchdowns, uh, when they are in the red zone.
8:18
That is 10th. Um, oh, by the way, and 10th offensively, uh, the Eagles' offense is inside the red zone. So those things tend at some point to regress to the center.
8:27
So if you're, if you're thinking, if you're leaning Washington, that's not a horrible thing to think, "Okay, well, that might, that might shift just a little bit."
8:35
Uh, and then the other thing is, you know, while we talk about Philly's on this five-game winning streak, who have those five wins been against, Kelly?
8:41
They have been against Cleveland, the Giants, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, and Dallas without Dak. Yep.
8:48
Cincinnati being perhaps the best of those teams, and that was that weird game that was 17 to 17 more than halfway through the third quarter, and then the Eagles took over, turnover on downs, a pick, a fumble against the Bengals.
9:00
So there's a case for both as, as you can sort of make in, in any game if you tried hard enough, but this one I think is legit where there's a case for both.
9:08
And at three and a half, I don't have a play yet, but if I am playing it, no surprise maybe to some, but since I guessed three, it would be with Washington getting the hook. Yeah, no play for me either.
9:18
Um, I'm, I'm leaning kinda same thing as last Thursday, kinda leaning to a team total over on the Eagles, uh, is what I might go to. I don't know if I'm gonna end up playing anything though, Gil. This is...
9:27
What an amazing game tonight. I don't know that I can remember back-to-back weeks of Thursday Night Football games that I've been this excited for. Like- Cincinnati, Baltimore last week...
9:35
I mean, that was huge last week. Ended up being a- And lived up to the hype... and, and lived up to the hype, and I think this game tonight is gonna be incredible.
9:42
I, I, I think Washington's kind of already proven that they are a- at least for real to some degree. I think you've always described it best. What are realistic expectations? I, I...
9:51
Make it to the playoffs, and you might mess around and win a game. I'm, we're not m- sitting here saying they're way better than that, but I think they've proven they're that good.
9:58
So then you look over at Philly, and it's, you know, you brought up the last five games. What do you take away from the last five games? Is this team for real?
10:04
Is this back to what a lot of us thought they were preseason? Are you buying into this defensive improvement that we've seen so much? And I am, I, I think for, for the most part, Gil.
10:14
So I think this Philly team, I didn't, I mean, I didn't bet it on the opener. I was looking at Philly early. It was three on the opener. Uh, it opened up. It's moved to three and a half. I ended up betting at three.
10:23
I'm not gonna lay three and a half here. Um, but man, I, just a massive, massive game I can't wait to watch. And this is, I mean, this is asking a lot on Daniels, though, right?
10:31
R- rookie, short week, heading into the Linc at night. Like, this is one of, gonna be the toughest tests he's had this season. Uh, it will be. The kid is magic, though.
10:39
Skins plus 73 in point differential in the first half of games this season. They average 16.2 points per game in the first half. That's second in the NFL, so the Eagles would do well to sort of, uh, buck that trend.
10:51
As for the Kliff Kingsbury thing, 'cause it came up earlier this week, Kliff Kingsbury, the, uh, offensive coordinator of the Washington Commanders, um, the, look at this. This is the first seven games.
11:02
These are his head coaching stints at Texas Tech and the Cardinals, and then he was a senior offensive assistant at USC last year and the, uh, Washington offensive coordinator this year.
11:11
Look at that difference between the first seven games and then what follows. And when you do this year to year, the aggregate number on this is, you ready for this?
11:20
First seven games, Kelly, 56, 27 and 1, and then after that, 22 and 58. This is bonkers. I'm so glad you, you, you took the time to, to, to build all this up, 'cause we've talked about it. We've heard this, right?
11:34
We've heard- Yeah... this whole Kliff Kingsbury thing, but you see those numbers? It's unbelievable. It's unbelievable, and I don't really, like, what do you take away from this?
11:41
I don't, like, it's kinda undeniable that it's a thing to some degree. You know, Dr- Drew Dincic was on earlier this week, and he said, "You know, there are some whispers where maybe we've seen the best of him."
11:50
So I figured maybe I should, uh, maybe should unlock the Kingsbury numbers and, uh, throw that into the mix if you buy into such things. But that's, that is an amazing stat.
11:59
56, 27 and 1, first seven games dating all the way back, you know, a decade. Wow. 22 and 58 afterwards. Uh, we will talk with Zach Cohen on the other side. We got some backup quarterbacks to rank.
12:12
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12:30
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12:48
While we were sitting there, uh, talking about the Eagles and the, uh, Skins tonight, boy, the NBA had some things last night. Woo. LeBron with another triple double, um, as the Lakers got it done against the Grizzlies.
13:02
And, uh, bigger than that, Giannis had 59 in an overtime win for the Bucks. Yeah, ou- yeah, outscored, uh, outscored the Pistons in overtime by himself. Had 22 of the Bucks' first 24 points in the game.
13:16
And then Victor Wembanyama messed around and, uh, tickled the strings to 50 balloons. He had 50 last night, and what'd he end up with, 23 minutes? Was it 27 minutes, what was it? He was just unbelievable.
13:27
He had eight made three-pointers. Is that how little he played? Oh, yeah, he ba- It's like, it was an amazing scoring output. He had eight threes.
13:35
Eight threes, which I believe is the, uh, was the Spurs' record in a game, if I'm not mistaken. Sounds right. Yeah. Um, so just an unbelievable night in the NBA. MVP odds movement, checked this this morning. Yeah.
13:45
Uh, c- I, I maybe, maybe made a bet in the market. I, I did. I, I added Giannis. 35 to one. I, this is, this is monster.
13:52
It, this, it could end up as a disaster for the Bucks, and who knows what happens with Giannis here. But- [laughs]... 35 to one on a, uh, on a player like that, yeah, I'm in. Um, Victor Wembanyama, though. Mm-hmm.
14:02
150 to one yesterday, 50 to one now at DraftKings. That'll do it. I saw him at 40 to one at Caesars. Ah. So you couldn't resist the Giannis thing, you had to get in? Yeah, th- 35 to one.
14:13
That is way too long on that, that good of a player. Uh, by the way, Wembanyama, 50 in 32. He ended up with 32 minutes, pardon me on that. Yo- Oh, no, 18 at DraftKings. Good...
14:21
Jokic still the, uh, regular season MVP short shot at plus 225. Zach Cohen knows his, himself a little thing or two about the NBA. Zach Cohen joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line at Betting on X.
14:34
Again, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. Zach, what's happening, man? Not much.
14:39
I was rage-tweeting a little during that, uh, Pistons-Bucks game because they almost took away, uh, th- that Bucks game in, in regulation with a really bad call on Giannis to end the game, where Pistons went to the free throw line to win the game and, uh, Ron Holland missed both.
14:51
But then Giannis ended up, you know, racking up numbers in overtime. Holland missed both. Holland is a 92% free throw shooter, and he missed both. It's okay, fellas.
15:00
It's back-to-back nights of the Pistons involved in games where ball don't lie. Ball don't- [laughs] That was a clean block, and then you bricked two free throws. Yeah. That moment was too big for him. Yep.
15:09
It really was. I, I mean, uh, the night before I was going crazy over the Bama non-call on the jump ball. Ball don't lie. Pistons end up winning. Ball don't lie. Spoke all the time I didn't have.
15:19
Kelly Bilin, author of that quote. That's right. Nobody's ever said that ever. Nobody's ever said that before. [laughs] Uh, Zach, NBA tonight, what do you got?
15:26
Uh, there's only one game tonight, so I, I, it's ma- easy, easy to lock in on one. I have the Mavs minus eight and a half against the Jazz.
15:33
Uh, Utah's a team that I usually like betting at home, but there's just a really big difference between these teams o- on both ends of the floor.
15:39
The Mavs are a full 10 points per 100 possessions better on offense, seven points per 100 possessions better on defense. Uh, also Dallas just kind of, like, wins these games big generally over the last two years.
15:50
Uh, they're 6 and 0 against the spread when playing on the road against teams that average 100 and under or fewer. So if you can't score, you are going to have a hard time scoring against this Dallas team.
15:59
And then obviously you have to find a way to stop them on the other end. The Jazz do not really have the defense to do it. So I felt pretty comfortable laying the points in that situation I just mentioned.
16:08
The Mavs won by 14 points per game, so I do think they're gonna win pretty easily tonight. Yeah, only ball game in the NBA. Let's go to tennis real quick as we crescendo to pro and college football. ATP Finals fever.
16:18
Did you catch it yet? Uh, if you like, uh- Yeah, I've been betting it, uh, I've been betting it every day. It is a difficult tournament to bet.
16:23
You kind of have to find weird ways in, and I, I found the weirdest way in possible for, uh, Sinner versus Medvedev, where I took a, a little sprinkle on plus 152 for Sinner to finish with more aces than Medvedev, which is something he's done in three of the last five that matches they've played.
16:39
Uh, he has a higher ace rate percentage, uh, over the course of the year.
16:43
I, I think that the thinking in this one is that Medvedev needs the win really bad, and the only way he can really do it is if he hits bombs with his serve, because there's a huge talent mismatch between these two, which we've now seen over the last couple meetings.
16:54
But I, I just kind of think that Sinner can be trusted to hit his spots, especially, you know, he's now clinched his spot in the semifinals in group play. Uh, there's probably not gonna be a lot of pressure on him.
17:03
I just think it's gonna be really easy and breezy for him to just go out there and, you know, make s- you know, I don't know, make some serves, make, make Medvedev miss.
17:10
And you're being modest, too, because you had Fritz earlier this morning. I know it doesn't apply now. But you had Fritz minus two and a half games against, uh, Alex de Minaur.
17:17
Mino- uh, de Minaur wins the first set 7-5, so you're behind the eight ball, so to speak.
17:22
But then 6-4 in favor of Fritz in set number two, and I believe it's match point for him to win 6-3 in the third, so you're gonna get home, my friend. Well done. What could possibly go wrong? Yeah.
17:32
Luck of the draw sometimes with who serves first, right? [laughs] Yeah. Well done. Uh, okay. To the National Football League. Tonight, Eagles, Commanders.
17:39
What do you think about this one with the Eagles favored by three and a half? I really wanted to find a three for the Eagles, but at three and a half I ended up laying off. I do think the Eagles are gonna win the game.
17:50
I, I just kind of think that they're much better defensively. And I know that the Commanders are, you know, second in the league in EPA per play on offense.
17:56
But, you know, it's kind of cooled off a little for Jayden Daniels over the last few weeks. Meanwhile, the Eagles are kind of putting it on teams lately. I think that that offense is starting to look really good.
18:05
So I, I think at home I, I really like Philly to get the job done. But, you know, it'd probably be a different story when they do play in Washington in a couple of weeks. Yeah.
18:13
One of three marquee matchups, and we can't stress this enough, the NFL week 11, one of three marquee matchups, tonight's Philly-Washington game, then obviously Baltimore-Pittsburgh, and then the biggest of them all, one would say based on records, the Chiefs and the Bills, and you have an opinion on that as well.
18:29
Yeah, I really like the Bills in that game, and it's funny because it's gonna be a public game where the Chiefs are gonna be the popular bet.
18:35
But, you know, all the stats show that the Bills are a better team, and they're better on both sides of the ball. Uh, they have a great record, too.
18:41
I know it's, they're not undefeated, but I just think this is a really good spot to be laying a really short number with the Bills team that I think can, you know, move the ball a lot easier than the Chiefs can.
18:51
And I trust the, the Bills defensively to stop the Chiefs. I, I know how impressive it has been for Kansas City to come out on top of a lot of these weird close games.
18:59
That's kinda what they do, but I do think this has the potential to be one where you won't see anything weird happening late. I could see it being, you know, relatively comfortable for Buffalo.
19:08
By the way, w- if the Chiefs win this game, we haven't really gone down this, this sort of narrative, but if the Chiefs win this game, what is that...
19:15
L- like, we will all come in, and I'm just talking about us, but all of us, you know, network wide, mainstream media wide, for a w- we're going to get the, "Oh my God," like the Chiefs are completely unbeatable then kind of narrative.
19:27
And, uh, c- and conversely we'll also have, oh, the Bills still can't get over this hump. Like, I mean, that is really... Like, if the Chiefs win this, what will your opinion be of them at that point?
19:37
Let's say they win it in some way that's not some fluky kind of way, but at that point, going into or the home stretch of the season and then into the post-season, you just have to, you know, you have to caveat every comment we ever make about anyone with, "And then there's the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes," right?
19:54
Like, I mean, it's just that dominance will be in effect. Yeah, it kind of already feels that way, honestly. Like, I feel so dumb every time I bet against the Chiefs.
20:01
I mean, like last year in the Super Bowl I did end up taking Kansas City, like reluctantly. I'm like, "Ah, I think they're gonna lose, but I'm gonna take them anyway."
20:08
But I, I, I just feel like that anyway, so I, I, I don't know if it's gonna change. I'll always kind of trust like the numbers and the spots, but it is just really difficult to bet against them. Yeah.
20:18
And we've said it all year when we do our power rankings, so it's like, you know, again, Aaron Schatz had Baltimore and San Francisco as, as two of his top 10 greatest DVOA teams of all time last year, and in the end it comes down to 60-minute increments in January, and Patrick Mahomes puts on his cape.
20:32
That doesn't mean people's power rankings are wrong, it just means that Patrick Mahomes exists. Uh, Chiefs minus 400 to end up with the AFC number one seed. That's before this Chiefs-Bills clash on Sunday.
20:44
So you're about the Bills in that game. Let's go to college football. Uh, you have one play that you really like, and, uh, you, you hinted at what it was, and I love this. Go ahead. Yeah.
20:54
I'm, I'm going with BYU against Kansas. I, I'm taking it on the money line. I got it at minus 135. I don't wanna lay any points in that game if it is gonna be as weird as people think it's gonna be.
21:04
Everyone in the world is on Kansas. Everybody. Every sharp money's on Kansas. It's, it's a really interesting situation. We've had a lot of these with BYU this season.
21:11
Earlier in the year, you know, there was the UCF game where they were playing a bad UCF team, kind of laid it on them, too.
21:17
So I just really don't think that the sharps have a great read on BYU, and I know that people are gonna flood my comments when, when BYU ends up losing this game saying never to go against the sharps, but I just don't think this Kansas team is that good.
21:29
I know that what we've seen over the last, you know, three weeks has been a lot better. The offense has kind of picked up.
21:34
But BYU's really good defensively, uh, really good offensively, so I just think this is a team that is a little better on both sides of the ball.
21:41
I think they're gonna have a lot of success running the ball on the Jayhawks. And also it's just very, very difficult to win in Provo, and the, the atmosphere is going to be insane. This is the best BYU's ever been.
21:52
They're going to be, you know, right there in the College Football Playoff mix.
21:56
I, I just really have a hard time seeing why this is such a short spread, even with the Jayhawks picking up, you know, the win over Iowa State. Yeah, and, and listen, I, I, you know, I agree with what you're saying.
22:06
Everybody and their mother seems to have Kansas in this game, and the narrative is, oh, BYU has just pulled it out of their proverbial you know what's time and time again, especially this last week against Utah.
22:17
By the way, it was a hold. We have the Zapruder footage that shows us it was a hold. Yeah. Um, and they made the most of it, but I get it. I get what the handicapping, uh, angle is on that.
22:26
But that does not mean that it will manifest necessarily in this game, right? It doesn't mean that. Yeah. And so, um, you know, what could possibly go wrong when everybody's on one side, Zach?
22:37
So I kind of like your play here. Yeah. [laughs] Uh, J- And, and, uh, th- that, that's Utah's Super Bowl, like a BYU-Utah game where- Right... Utah's struggling.
22:44
Like, that's the game that they threw everything into, you know, new offensive coordinator, the QB played unbelievable, Brandon Rose. I, they just, they took the best punch from Utah and they still won the game.
22:53
Zach Cohen, everybody. Thank you, Zach, appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Half of the Zach & Crack team here on The Numbers Game on Thursday courtesy of Progressive Gas Light.
23:01
You can follow Zach at Betting on X, where he covers, uh, every sport you could possibly imagine. Does a great job. Uh, we'll come back, uh, we'll come back.
23:09
Not only backup quarterback rankings, but our Larson a smooth bet of the week. That's next right here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:21
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23:58
And I gotta say, uh, one of the big uses so far that I've noticed about the, uh, VSiN Watch app, you wanna see a segment from, uh, earlier in the week and you're like, "Where do I get it? How do I find it?"
24:08
VSiN Watch app, very easy to navigate and find. We get tweets at Beating the Book, always appreciate the, uh, feedback, best listeners. Lance Schaefer, Lance Schaefer chimes in.
24:17
We have a lot of Schaefer's, uh- Yeah, we do. Yeah... listening to the show. Yeah, it's a big, big last name for this show. Uh, Lance Schaefer was saying yesterday- Big last name... big last name for the show.
24:24
He was saying yesterday, he goes, "Gil, you already got the Hail Mary on the Bears." By the way, that's the Hail Miriam. Uh, "Salt in the wound every time you play that audio."
24:32
And I said to him, I go, "I don't push the buttons for, for the audio on you know who, the guy who plays quarterback for the Bears." I don't wanna say his name 'cause then it comes chiming over.
24:40
He goes, "But you're loving every second. I can't blame you." Anyway, he says, "Prediction: History repeats. Rogers follows Favre two years on the Jets, then he goes to the Vikings and makes a run at the Super Bowl."
24:50
That's Lance Shafer's p- [laughs] Prediction. All right. Okay. Sure. We'll see if that happens. You know, w- w- I mean, it is kinda interesting. I ha- I haven't thought about that.
24:58
I'm sure you haven't either, but- Nope... you, you could see, I guess, a quarterback window, I don't know, if McCarthy's not good or something. Packers fans lose their mind all over again.
25:07
JasonH11, "Stick to your guns, Beidolon. There's an etiquette to the cutoff time you can text someone on a work night. Homie needs his beauty sleep." Uh, y- you know, so, uh- [laughs]...
25:16
I, I kind of agree with this, but not really. He, anybody can text me whenever. If I don't respond to you, though, I'm probably asleep. Hmm, I don't know. You're homie in this, uh, in this narrative right here.
25:26
Homie needs his b- his beauty sleep. That's right. Uh, T Shell Doll, "Hey, Gill, if you have the Packers and Bills in your top six, don't you like that Super Bowl matchup at 49 to 1?"
25:34
I mean, kinda, but I just think the Lions are so good at this point.
25:38
Jason Stark, "Oh, so Gill is obviously gonna give us the Steelers their due here in the backup quarterbacks ranking because, uh, we have the best backup quarterback in the NFL," he says.
25:47
"Hell, you wanted him starting over the current undefeated starting quarterback, right?" Uh, I did, and, uh, so did Mike Tomlin because this is e- this is exact... Uh, Mike Tomlin did not, pardon me.
25:59
Uh, I did because I wanted the... I didn't think that the way to do it was to start, um, Wilson first, have Wilson fail, then you can never go back to him, right? So I thought that was the way to do it.
26:12
Um, I know Jason Stark. But by the way, Jason, Justin Fields is not the number one starting backup quarterback. Or not the number one backup quarterback in the rankings. Sorry to disappoint you. I, I'm just enjoying.
26:21
Jason, longtime listener, longtime tweeter. We love him so much. We love him.
26:25
I, I, I don't remember if I said on air or off air the other day, but I was like, "Now's the time to du- uh, to dunk on me and Gill for Steelers fans." Yeah. That's for sure. Do it before the gauntlet happens, Jason.
26:33
[laughs] Enjoy your time. 'Cause so far we've been dead wrong. And Jason, do me this favor. Don't do like the Bills fans and then scurry away when you start losing games.
26:40
[laughs] Uh, New Jersey, New York, "The graphic for the Kingsbury splits is very well done. Can we get a points per game breakdown for each of those two columns, first seven games versus after?" Stop slacking, Gill.
26:49
Sure, I'll, sure I'll get right on that. [laughs] Stop slacking, man. [laughs] Brian Schaefer, "Hey Gill, uh, Jared McCain on the Sixers for Rookie of the Year. Great value with Embiid and George sitting every game.
26:59
LOL McCain minutes will be there and he can score." Yeah, he's been great. Uh, b- been filling in a lot with Maxie out, 34, uh, last night for him, 23 on Tuesday against the Knicks, 27 against Charlotte on Sunday.
27:12
Uh, he's been awesome. Here's the bad news. He's plus 350. He's now the short shot in the market. Hmm, there you go.
27:16
Bobby Knuckles, "Line of the day from Gill about Wemby, quote, 'Messed around and tickled the strings to 50 balloons.' Uh, we used to say that at basketball camp.
27:25
Metr- Metropolitan, uh, Area Basketball Camp in DC, Military Road, St. John's." It is one of your, it's one of your go-to basketball- Yeah... sayings. Yeah. Ballon Cesto's in there too.
27:34
Sweens Machine, "Not that I want credit, love that it got legs though, but the reason Kelly doesn't remember my tweet about the backup quarterback rank- uh, backup quarterback rankings was because he had food poisoning," in quotes, "that day, or what some may have suspected, the brew flu.
27:48
Looking forward to the rankings." Is this, was this Friday? Uh, maybe it was. Yeah. Th- thank you. Thank you, Sweens Machine. Who was that? Thank you. Yes, you are. Sweens Machine. Thank you.
27:55
You have absolved Kelly of all wrongdoing. Appreciate it. Yeah. Keep your seats for me. I need someone to. And that brings us to our smooth bet of the week. Smooth bet of the week presented by Larceny Wheated Bourbon.
28:06
[upbeat music] Blockin' the win and seize tonight. Bardstown, Kentucky. 46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely. Well, Kelly, are we simpatico on this one? I think we are. I didn't bet it, but I love it.
28:20
I still love it. Steph Curry MVP. I added some 40 to 1 yesterday on this- Nice. Okay... in addition to my 50 to 1. And by the way, again, when you g- it depends when you go in. This is how meshugenah these books are now.
28:32
With the 50 to 1, I got some guy up in, uh, up in Risk who was like, "Oh, we can only give you a nickel, but, uh, don't try to bet any more here. We'll give the next guy some more."
28:41
And then at 40 to 1, I came during the day, and the guy upstairs was like, "Sure." Yeah, take whatever you want. "Give me that one. Yeah." Ugh. So it just is, uh, so dumb.
28:48
Uh, Steph Curry though, uh, for MVP, and the reason is obvious, uh, should be obvious to so many obviously 'cause the Warriors are off to a, uh, to a great start.
28:58
Um, and this is just, you know, who d- who doesn't love Warriors basketball? They're nine and two. But really specifically, who doesn't love Steph Curry?
29:07
Kelly, is there a more beloved athlete in any sport, in any of our major sports, is there a more universally beloved player than Steph Curry? That is a great question. Probably not. No. The answer is no, there is not.
29:21
That is my, that is my opinion on that.
29:23
And because of that, if Steph Curry continues to play lights out, um, and continues to have these amazing endings to games, puts up the numbers, and the Warriors end up as a top three seed, let's say, right now they're the second seed, uh, in the Western Conference, you don't think these voters will wanna vote for Steph Curry no matter what Jokic does?
29:44
Jokic four in five seasons, or let's give Steph one parting gift. Not that he's ready to part. Yep. But at 36 years old, that would be a lovely thing.
29:53
So Steph Curry, uh, at 50 to 1 and now at 40 to 1 is my Larceny smooth bet of the day. Yeah, he's, uh... I, I mean, look, you're talking about... Y- you, you bring up Jokic. Jokic has been awesome to begin the season.
30:03
I don't even think he's gonna be the real competition do- down the stretch for him. I just, I, I don't think the Nuggets are g- continue to rack up enough wins and be up near the top of the Western Conference.
30:12
Whereas Golden State, um, uh, look, we had JVT and a lot of guys in the off season were very high on this team. I had a little bit of hesitations with some of the role players, but man, they're all playing great.
30:22
And if it...
30:23
Like you said, the name and Steph Curry, how likable he is, this Warriors team and what they've done over the years, if they're near the top of the Western Conference standings at the e- end of the year, Steph Curry is going to be in this conversation.
30:35
So you get in now at a longer number, and if it plays out that way, you're sitting pretty.
30:40
Um, right now he's sixth and, uh, he's not even having that great of a statistical year r- uh, uh, for, for his standards, but- 23.9 points a game, 6.6 assists per game, and, uh, 4.8 boards.
30:51
Yeah, which ra- rates out for six in EPM. If you go over to Dunks and Threes, it's a good metric I like to follow for this. Measure, measure's basically player impact per 100 possessions.
30:58
He's onl- take away Embiid, he's only behind Jokic, SGA, Luka, Tatum, and Giannis, uh, which makes sense. So he's right in that mix already. And I- I don't even...
31:09
I- this is, what his stats are, what you just read, Gil, they're going to be better than that by the z- end of the season. So he g- continues to get better. This Warriors team continues to win. I love the bet at 35 to 1.
31:20
Well, thank you very much, Kelly Bidlin. Yeah. Thank you very much. Steph Curry, your Larceny Bourbon smooth bet of the week. Feeling lucky?
31:27
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31:32
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31:42
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31:52
Find a bottle near you at larcenybourbon.com. ANG brought to you by Larceny Bourbon, Bardstown, Kentucky. 46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely. Do we have time for the, uh, the backup quarterback rankings?
32:05
Sure. All right, we do.
32:06
Ladies and gentlemen, here they are, starting at number 15, where we put in a third-stringer, Josh Dobbs of the San Francisco 49ers, because Josh Dobbs has come in in a couple years for a couple different teams and won football games.
32:18
The stats won't back it up, but he gets an honorable mention at number 15. Number 14, Mac Jones. Mac Jones of the, uh, Jaguars, their second-string quarterback is at number 14. 84.9 career passer rating.
32:31
Drew Lock of the Giants is third, only as... Uh, excuse me, is 13th, only a 79.1 career passer rating. That's after, out, out of 158.3. 28 career touchdowns, 23 picks. C.J. Beathard is the other third-stringer.
32:44
He's actually the Jaguars' third-string quarterback. He ranks higher than Mac Jones, who's the second-string quarterback. Well, it, I would do the same thing. Yep. He's at number 12. And C.J.
32:52
Beathard has had a sneaky good career, uh, as, as recently as 2023, a 98.7 passer rating, and in 2020, the pandemic year, six touchdowns, no picks, and 105.7 passer rating.
33:04
Taylor Heinicke of the Chargers, 39 touchdowns, 28 career picks, with an 84.3 career passer rating. He's at number 11.
33:10
Malik Willis, because of recent work with the Packers, four games this year, three touchdowns, no picks, one rushing touchdown, a 130.3 passer rating, an 87.6 QBR. He comes in at 10th.
33:22
Marcus Mariota for career, uh, career accomplishments at number nine, 95 touchdowns, 55 career picks. Mitch Trubisky of the Bills at eight, 72 touchdowns, 48 picks, 13 touchdowns on the ground in his career.
33:35
He's at number eight. Tyrod Taylor, he's at seven. By the way, his superpower, never turning the ball over. 66 touchdowns, 29 picks, 19 on the ground in his career, and only one fumble lost.
33:48
Justin Fields of the Steelers is at six. His problem, though, is that he's fumbled 20 times. He's only lost two, but he has got to figure out how not to do that.
33:56
5-4-3-2-1, Brissett, Flacco, Jake Browning at three, Jimmy Garoppolo two, and Andy Dalton one. Well, I get- No, no surprises at the top. Those are your backup rankings. We'll come back up. Coming back, Tim Murray.
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That's 50% off at, and I'll spell it for you, O-M-A-H-A steaks.com, and an extra $30 off with promo code NUMBERS. Minimum purchase may apply. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, it's a Numbers Game live from Circa.
35:09
Uh, Tim Murray standing by to talk some college football with us. Before we get to that, though, I really feel like my backup quarterback rankings got short shrift. So let us continue with number seven.
35:17
Thank you very much. Those pesky commercials got in the way. Uh, Tyrod Taylor at seven. This, I don't think people think of Tyrod Taylor this high, but, uh, again, his superpower is he never turns the ball over.
35:28
Only problem with n- uh, you can't make him any higher than that 'cause he hasn't really done much lately in the last few years, right?
35:34
So 66 career touchdowns, 29 picks, 19 on the ground, only one fumble lost in his entire career.
35:39
Uh, Justin Fields would be higher than sixth, Steelers fans, except for the fact, again, that he has 20 fumbles, and he's only lost two of them. He has unbelievable fumble luck.
35:50
Quarterbacks usually recover their own fumbles, or their offensive linemen do, so I get it, it's always gonna be lower. But he's also taken 151 sacks in just 46 games, so that's...
36:01
He can't be higher than that at this point. Jacoby Brissett is fifth, Kelly. 84.4 career passer rating, 53 touchdowns, 24 picks career.
36:10
Joe Flacco, despite his sucking at football the last two weeks, he has won a Super Bowl, and if you had one game to win, maybe he's your guy here. He's fourth. 254 career touchdowns, 160 picks, over 45,000 yards passing.
36:25
Jake Browning of the Bengals, have we forgotten about how good he was last year? He gets a recency bias number three.
36:31
Uh, last year, in place of the, uh, injured Joe Burrow, 12 touchdowns, seven pick, three touchdowns, just shy of 2,000 yards in nine games. Had a 98.4 passer rating. That's, again, at a 158.3.
36:42
Jimmy G, 94 touches, 51 picks, a 97.6 passer rating. He's by far got the best long-term passer rating of all these guys. He's number two, but Andy Dalton gets number one.
36:54
253 touchdowns, 150 picks, just shy of 40,000 yards passing. He's your number one, and those, ladies and gentlemen, are your top 15 backup quarterback rankings.
37:03
I, I think maybe the biggest takeaway I have, which i- is shocking even to me, is Is that Malik Willis from the what we saw this year [laughs] deserves to be higher up? He gets, he gets 10, yeah, yeah.
37:14
I would, I, I, I can't imagine me ever saying that, uh, six months ago. Well, you know who's not in there? Trey Lance is not in there.
37:20
You know who I thought would be in there, but really the stats don't bear it out, is, uh, Secret Bagent Man from the Bears. Mm. Tyson Bagent.
37:28
Uh, Tim Murray joins us, ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He, of course, is the coast of, uh, co-host of VSIN Prime Time. You can follow him on Twitter at TimMurray1. How you doing, Tim?
37:39
I'm good, fellas. Always appreciate jumping on. All right, one Tim Murray. Pardon me. Wes Reynolds is one at the end. Tim Murray's- [laughs]... got the one at the beginning. How you doing, man? You good? I'm good, yeah.
37:49
Yeah. No, no complaints here, man. I'm ready to rock and roll. Fired up for week 12. Fired up for week 12. Um, you're talking college football, of course, not the- Of course... or are you talking NFL?
37:58
You- Well, NFL would be week 11, Gil. Always minus one for the NFL. That's right. With the guessing lines, I could never figure out which week it is. It's a whole thing. Um, what is your favorite play in the NFL?
38:07
Let's start there. What do you like best? In the NFL? Um, I, uh, I'm going to be the moron and go against the Kansas City Chiefs this week. Okay. Uh, I'm gonna take the Bills on the Moneyline and, uh,
38:21
and you gotta hold my nose here. Uh, I took the Broncos last week, not on the Moneyline, thankfully, so, uh, that was, uh, a relatively easy winner.
38:29
And, you know, look, I'm not gonna sit here and say, "Oh, the Chiefs are massive frauds, and they're not gonna win anything."
38:35
No, I mean, when you're got Patrick Mahomes, uh, it just, it, it feels like they've been asking for a loss, and I know 12, one and one, all time as an underdog, they already beat the Niners as an underdog.
38:46
But, uh, to me, on the road, kind of revenge spot, uh, I will be on the Bills this week. That is, uh, definitely gonna be one of the spots.
38:55
And then, um, you know, one thing I'm looking at, Gil, uh, tonight is, uh, Jayden Daniels, uh, from a rushing standpoint.
39:02
I'm not a big prop guy, but his rushing numbers, Mike Sando kind of put it, pointed it out in his column on Monday on The Athletic, which is if you look at the first five games versus the last five games for Jayden Daniels, they've really stopped a lot of design runs, a lot of scrambles.
39:20
Uh, market has adjusted to it, but I, I'm curious, uh, if we see Jayden, uh, kinda stay in the pocket yet again here tonight.
39:27
Short week, still kinda dealing with that rib injury, so, uh, haven't gotten to the window yet, but I think the way I'm planning on attacking tonight is maybe taking Jayden Daniels under his rushing yards.
39:38
Because the last handful of weeks, he really hasn't utilized his legs, uh, certainly as much as he did in the beginning part of the season. And that is a Washingtonian telling you that. That's right. And Tim Murray.
39:48
That's right. So, t- uh, Tim Murray, Zach Cohen, and myself all on the Bills. What could possibly go wrong? I can't think of anything. Um, you're Irish.
39:55
Can we just start there before we get to your picks in college football, Tim? Sure.
39:58
Uh, when they lost to Northern Illinois, so many people, and oh, I laughed, so many people were like, "Ah, this one loss Irish team, they're not getting in the 12-team playoff." People said this.
40:08
People with, with tons of conviction said this, and here they are sitting there with that one loss. They are firmly into this.
40:14
Do you feel, 'cause you are an Irish fan, for those who don't know this about Tim, he's a fan of the Irish. Um, do you feel like they are a team that once in could make some serious noise? Define serious noise, Gil.
40:28
Uh, win more than once. I think they can win once. I think that might be the ceiling, unless they get the Big 12 champion, which I don't think they will. Um, look, I, I think this team was built to make a deep run.
40:43
The issue is that they've taken hits as the year has gone on, and they haven't felt the loss of Benjamin Morrison, who will be a first-round pick.
40:54
Uh, he is their best and most talented player, their corner, uh, but he's done for the year, has a hip injury. And, you know, I feel like Notre Dame, uh, they lost their top two edge rushers as well during the season.
41:06
So they've been built, uh, and this is a credit to Marcus Freeman and the staff, they've been built to have depth and deal with these injuries.
41:14
However, once you're going through the college football playoff, not having some of your top-tier players is going to ding you for sure.
41:23
So look, I think this, this roster, uh, you know, Riley Leonard got off to a slow start. You're seeing what this offense can potentially be.
41:31
I don't really anticipate either of the next, uh, three opponents, Virginia, Army, USC, to beat Notre Dame.
41:40
Obviously, that would be a significant upset if you do think Notre Dame will lose one of those games, but I don't think they can make a serious run.
41:47
If they were fully healthy, Gil, I think the ceiling for this team personally was the semifinals. I never thought this was a roster capable of winning a national championship.
41:56
But, you know, looking at the vulnerabilities of so many teams across the country, Georgia, uh, Texas, et cetera, uh, you know, I think Notre Dame, if they were fully healthy and peaking, maybe you, you make a run deep.
42:08
But I think with the injuries, uh, that they've dealt with this year and, and the shortcomings of Riley Leonard through the air, I don't think they have elite wide receivers.
42:17
I think ultimately the ceiling for them is probably New Year's Day, uh, unless they are fortunate and get a, a, you know, a team from like the, the Big 12 or maybe even the ACC champion. All right.
42:29
Your favorite picks of the week in college football are? Uh, let's go, you know, we've seen this market move a lot, so you're, we're giving out a bad number.
42:38
Um, but I, I really like Kansas this week, and I know it's been a popular play- Hmm... amongst us in the gambling bubble.
42:44
Uh, it's kind of, you know, the old quote, "pros versus Joes," even though I'm certainly not a pro. I am as Joe as possible. But I just, this BYU thing is gonna end.
42:54
Uh, the, they are, you know, credit to Kalani Sitake and this program for getting to a 9 and 0 start to the season, but they've won two games now in the last month, uh, with less than 10 seconds to go.
43:07
And I think this is a Kansas team that you could argue is one of the most unlucky teams in college football this year. Believe they're 0 and 5 in one-score games. So it's two-and-a-half now.
43:19
I think we might get back to three once the public really starts coming in. So, you know, keep an eye out for that three, but I think Kansas wins this game outright late night on Saturday.
43:29
And then I'll give you one more, Gil. Uh, the Tennessee-Georgia game, I'm not gonna lay it with Georgia.
43:34
Uh, obviously we're waiting for news regarding Nico Iamaleava, the quarterback of Tennessee, but I think Tennessee's really gonna struggle to score here. So, uh, I did a T- Tennessee team total under.
43:47
Uh, 17 and a half is out there. Um, you know, you might get a little bit more, but, you know, as we're talking about 18, 19, nothing really key there. So I think 17 and a half, anything under that is fine with me.
43:58
I, I think this Tennessee team against Georgia, who's gonna be very, very angry for getting embarrassed last weekend against Ole Miss, and I think this Tennessee offense where Samson, their running back's a little bit dinged up.
44:10
Obviously we don't know yet about Nico, whether or not he's going to play. He's currently in concussion protocol. But even if Nico does play, I think Tennessee struggles to consistently score in this game, guys.
44:21
So Tennessee team total under, and then Kansas, uh, two and a half. Hopefully we get the three back, but I still think Kansas is worth a Moneyline look late night against BYU. Tim, part of the Kansas Brigade.
44:34
Everybody loves Kansas, except, except for Zach Cohen. We should point that out. Uh, Tim is also host of the College Football Tailgate, 10:00 AM Eastern on Saturdays. You having a great time with that, Timmy?
44:43
Always, man. Join me at 10:00 AM, folks. 10:00 AM Saturdays, College Tailgate with the host Tim Murray. Thank you, Tim. Appreciate it. Crack Man on the other side, Bill Krackenberger.
44:54
Unscripted, it's a numbers game at VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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