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Nov 1, 2024
A Numbers Game | November 1, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | November 1, 2024 | Hour 2
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. [upbeat rock music] Hour number two of a Numbers Game here on VSiN.
0:40
Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Do not worry, he will be back on Monday. You don't have to deal with me anymore, Kelly Biblin. I know everyone will be happy to see me- Thank God... out of the seat.
0:48
I know, everyone will be happy to see me out of the seat. Gil will be back in here, but appreciate you guys letting me in here over the last week. I'm interested to see if we have any,
0:58
if we have any competing picks here from, from Mike Semanch yesterday a- and our next guest, the, the bear Chris Felica joining us to talk not only the Breeders' Cup, but some college football as well.
1:10
Chris, how you doing, man? I, I, I'm, I'm doing well.
1:13
I'm sure we probably will have some, uh, competing thoughts, being that these races are super highly competitive, uh, super even with a bunch of really attractive looking prices.
1:24
So I have a feeling we're both gonna land on some, uh, some long shots that probably aren't the same in a, in a lot of these races. Which is fine. Yes, no, ab- absolutely.
1:32
We, we both, we both, we both can be right in a different race and both come out ahead if we, if we, uh, we have the right prices. So we have two races that you're looking at that are happening today. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
1:41
So if people want to go in and, and, and start getting their, their Breeders' Cup bettin' on today, Kelly- Let's go... you can do that. The Breeders' Cup- Sacker and Breeza... Juvenile Turf.
1:49
And so this is just a five furlong race. What are we looking at here in this one? Yeah, it, it's the first race today. I think it's at 2:30. I, I think it's like at 4:00 Eastern- Mm-hmm... I, I think is what it is.
2:02
I'd have to go back and look. But it's the, uh, it's the sixth race. And, and I really like the number two horse Asterius in here.
2:08
Uh, I think she's going to be r- uh, or he's gonna be right on the, on the lead or right near to it. I don't understand in looking at the form why he is f- nine to two and the three horse, Big Mojo, is four to one.
2:21
If you look a couple races back, uh, Big Mojo did beat Asterius, but Big Mojo was 25 to 1 in the race. So kind of dismissed. But since that race, uh, Asterius hasn't been beaten. Won, won his two races.
2:33
Uh, to get a little bit of a better price on Asterius today. And, uh, I, I think that was a little bit of a fluke. I, I don't know what to make of, uh, Ikoro Siege, uh, the Japanese horse who's the seven to two favorite.
2:44
I have a feeling that a lot of these Japanese horses are gonna be a little bit overvalued in the line just because of what we saw from Forever Young in the, in the Derby this year.
2:52
Chris, is it a g- what is, what kind of mindset do you have to change into when you're, when you're handicapping these sprints as compared to, like, your typical race that everyone is more accustomed to watching?
3:01
Is there a, a big, big difference i- in the handicapping process? Uh, there isn't a huge difference for me. Mm.
3:07
I, I always like, the first thing I always like to do with a race is try and figure whether, whether it's a five furlong, sprint, six furlong, a mile, class, like classic distance turf dirt, is to figure out the pace of the race.
3:19
Do I think the pace is gonna be moderate? Do I, do I think the pace is gonna be slow? Do I think it's gonna be, uh, very, very fast up front to set up from someone off the, uh, off the pace?
3:27
And then I try and decipher, like, the class level of a lot of these horses. A- a- and I think, uh, with how I see this race flowing out, uh, I think Asterius is gonna set a really, really nice trip in here.
3:38
Let's head to the dirt here, another race that's happening today, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. This'll go a mile and a 16th. Who do you like here? Yeah, this is a, a great Juvenile.
3:49
A lot of times in the Breeders' Cup, uh, you get a lot of horses that maybe kind of peak at two, and you can't really foresee them moving on to have a really good three-year-old season.
3:59
But this is a really good Juvenile. Uh, the number one, East Avenue, is favorite.
4:03
But, uh, if you look at number one, East Avenue, and you look at number four, Ferocious, the roles are kind of reversed today for, for these two horses.
4:12
In that race at Keeneland, Ferocious was the horse in on the rail a- and had to deal with everything. East Avenue had the cushy outside spot. Ferocious was favorite in that race. Now East Avenue is favorite in this race.
4:24
I, I just think the race here, uh, w- with East Avenue and the Baffert horse, uh, I, I think there are a lot of horses that probably are gonna be on the pace.
4:32
And East Avenue is gonna have to be special, I think, to win today. But I, I know, uh, some of the connections of Ferocious, and I know they are extremely confident.
4:40
He had, Ferocious won with one of the more impressive winners at the Saratoga Meet as a Juvenile this year, uh, to be favored in all three races, kinda come up, uh,
4:51
short in the, in, in the race at Keeneland last out, and now have an opportunity to turn the tables. I think Ferocious can do it.
4:56
And if there was one other horse I could play in here, uh, it would be the number five horse, Jonathan's, Jonathan's Way, who I think is a big-time horse as well.
5:04
But, uh, but I, I think East Avenue at a short price, as good as he looks on paper, is, uh, very, very susceptible to being beat today. Let's head to tomorrow. And again, all these are just massive purse races.
5:16
This one, $2 million purse as we head a mile and 3/80. The Breeders' Cup Philly and Mare Turf Race. Uh, th- this is a race where I don't know if Cinderella's Dream wants to get this distance. Uh, she looks good on paper.
5:30
Her trainer is fantastic. But, but I think there are a lot of opportunities in here, uh, to potentially get, uh, a price.
5:37
I look at the number 12 horse, Soprano, who is less than three to one at Keeneland, uh, in her last race. And now she's 20 to 1 on the morning line. Uh, the, the winner last time out, Freak.
5:48
Maybe Soprano isn't good enough, but at 20 to 1, I will absolutely use her in my exotics.
5:54
The horse I really like h- is the five horse, Diddy, who, uh, again, this horse was a beaten favorite last time out at Del Mar, was four to five. Uh, got beat by a horse that was double digit odds.
6:04
Uh, uh, Diddy has kinda gotten, uh, her footing- Over this Del Mar turf course right now. A- and I think coming back here at 12 to 1 now in a, a...
6:12
If you look at Didia's past performances, uh, there's been a couple of times where she's been a little bit dismissed on the tote board, and she has run huge.
6:20
Uh, I think her trainer has her spotted very well here with a nice, uh, a, a nice outside-ish type post, but not too far out. Should get a comfortable trip.
6:27
I think Didia has a really, really big, uh, chance to win this race, 12 to 1. Talking to Chris Felica, helping us out here, not only handicapping some horse races, but also we'll get to college football here in a bit.
6:38
But the big one, this one's gonna be on the big NBC seven million dollar purse here. And this one, these are a bunch of horses, Chris, that I think that people maybe not realize they've heard of before.
6:47
You got Forever Young in this field. You've got Derma Soma- Sotogante. You've got, um, Fierceness. You have Tapit Trice, Sierra Leone.
6:55
So these are some horses I think that people might not even realize that they're, they're, they're familiar with. Right, yeah.
7:00
'Cause Forever Young, a- after the, uh, Kentucky Derby, went back over to Japan and, and, and prepped and, and trained over there before coming back here. I, I will say this.
7:09
Before the Belmont Stakes, w- uh, a very good friend of mine, a very, very good handicapper and contest player said to me, uh, I think it was on Wednesday, he goes, "You need to go on the air on Fox this weekend.
7:21
You need to pick Dornick. I love Dornick in the Belmont." And what didn't I do? [laughs] I did not go on the air and pick Dornick. He at least gives even a, uh... As a price horse, and what did Dornick do?
7:30
Dornick won the Belmont at a massive price. He, uh, he sent me a note the other day saying, "I love Newgate in the Classic on Saturday." So he, uh, he has a pretty keen eye for picking these long shot horses.
7:42
Uh, you get Bob Baffert with a horse that is kind of, uh, won the second race off of a layoff, ran really well in the first race off the layoff, should probably improve. It's gonna be a massive price.
7:52
I will absolutely be using Newgate. I am against the favorite, City of Troy, here. I will... I actually laid, uh, minus 250 or so on the field against City of Troy. Uh, I, I think they're kind of just taking a shot here.
8:07
Uh, but City of Troy's stud field, you see, is already established as a great turf horse. I think they're trying to get a... If, if he wins on dirt, it is, his fee price go- price goes through the roof.
8:16
So I think they're taking a chance, kind of a no harm, no foul. If they run well, uh, great. If they don't, so what? If they win, it's even better. But I, I think you need to look at
8:26
the 11 horse, Sierra Leone, who, uh, this horse has been kind of beat up a little bit during the summer, has always seemed to have trouble, but you get Flavien Prat now on this horse at Del Mar.
8:36
The horse's speed figures actually have been going up steadily, uh, throughout the summer.
8:41
Uh, I, I think the way this race plays out, there c- should be a good bit of speed in here with Arthur's Ride and Fierceness and some other horses.
8:48
I, I think Sierra Leone has a great chance, and I would, I would've loved Forever Young in this race, but I worry about the draw with the rail a- and having some kickback and maybe kind of getting stuck in between horses and not being able to get a clear run.
9:02
He, I, I think Forever Young potentially could be the best horse in this race, even with the presence of City of Troy, but I just don't know if the trip is gonna work out for him tomorrow.
9:11
But, but I, I still will hesitantly use him, but, uh, I'm liking Sierra Leone for whatever reason more and more, uh, along with my buddy's horse, Newgate.
9:20
We'll have all of Chris's plays up over on vsi.com as well to make sure... I know it's a lot to take in if you're driving in your car. Yeah. But yes, this is, uh, this is great.
9:27
We'll have all of that up over at vsin.com. Let's get to the Fox New York Yanks game, uh, here, uh- Mm-hmm... Ohio State and Penn State, biggest game of the week.
9:36
As we sit right now, Chris, looking at about a three and about a 46 and a half on the total, what do you think about this one? I, I laid the three with Ohio State.
9:47
I, I think there's a little bit of an overreaction to what we saw last week, uh, in that close win against Nebraska.
9:52
You, you think back, college football is such a, an, um, a cyclical, emotional week by week where you're not gonna get the same performance from the same team twice.
10:01
Look, look, think back just, I guess it was September when they played, when, when Georgia went to Lexington and nearly lost to Kentucky, and I think Kentucky's won one game since then. They were terrible that night.
10:10
And what do you, what do you see a couple weeks ago? Georgia goes to Texas and plays a, a fantastic game and blows out a team that [laughs] was ranked number one in the country.
10:16
So, uh, yes, I do think the Ohio State offensive line is a little bit of in trouble, but, but I think we're gonna see a little bit of a different scheme, a little bit of a different game plan from Ohio State tomorrow.
10:26
I, I think you're probably gonna see more than one target, uh, from Jeremiah Smith in the second half, and I think you're gonna see a lot more Will Howard, uh, quarterback run to maybe elude the, get out of that pocket and get him on the move to kind of mask some of those offensive line problems.
10:40
And I think coinciding with that, the kind of the correlated play with Ohio State trying to eat up the clock a little bit, will be a Penn State team total of under 20 and a half.
10:48
I, I know, I know Drew Allar is, uh, likely going to play now, but, but I, I think Ohio State getting, uh, Lingem Branson back in the secondary, uh, the targeting call, that bad targeting call was reversed, so, uh, they're gonna be at full strength, I think, defensively and, and I would expect them to be in the, uh, the Penn State backfield, really limit the, the running game a- and force Drew Allar to, to beat them.
11:09
So, uh, I, I like Ohio State minus the three, and I did play the under 20 and a half Penn State team total. I'm j- I'm sure that's gonna go over really well tomorrow on the air here in Happy Valley.
11:17
[laughs] Let me tell you, I love whenever we get the 9:00 AM games out here on the, on the West Coast, man.
11:22
Wake up, get the biggest game going, ready to rock and roll, ready to, ready to kick the day in the, in the teeth. Absolutely. Chris, uh, what's the hotel chain this week, uh, in Happy Valley? How is it?
11:32
Uh, I, I, I'm not an expert, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Oh. There we go. There we go. There we go. He is Chris Felica. It, it ac- actually, it's, actually, it's r- it's very new- Oh...
11:42
and, uh, quite comfortable. A huge room. So, uh, yeah, I, I, I'm, I'm quite happy with the accommodations. It, it, uh- Oh, okay... definitely moving up the, uh, moving up the ranks of ho- hotel chains on the road.
11:53
You do... You sound like you are in a, a big room right there. Uh, yeah. Podcast production. I'm refreshed. Yeah. Absolutely. I'm not a handicap expert, but I am... but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express.
12:00
[laughs] Catch him on Fox Sports, the Bear Bets Podcast as well, @ChrisFelica on... Pr- appreciate the time and good luck. Take care, guys. Have a great weekend.
12:08
When we come back, let's continue on talking some NFL here in week number nine.
12:16
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. I bet you didn't think you were gonna get all that horse racing love in your life this week, but here it is.
12:33
You asked for it. Kelly Bidlin delivers. Goes out, gets two experts in the field of horse race betting. I don't, I don't know if any of their picks crossed over. I don't know, whatever. But you know what I can say?
12:45
Is you can go in now, and you can at least have a, a pool, and then do your own research. That's right. Um, I'm- I believe Somich, didn't he bring up East Avenue yesterday? That's the race today.
12:55
I di- I didn't have it written down- Sure... as one of his official bets, though, but y- I thought he had mentioned him yesterday. Sure. Um, so f- f- Sounds-... maybe watch back yesterday's show. Yeah.
13:05
Uh, but Felica and Somich might have been matching on that one, which is race nine today. And yes, I wrote down, we'll go over it later when we do our G Bank Best Bets. Mm.
13:12
But I wrote down, look, it's important the track, but this week it's just everything Del Mar, so you don't gotta worry about that.
13:18
But I got every race number for today, tomorrow, we'll hit them all at the end of the show. Look at that. And here's the thing. If you wanna find out what Somich bet, we have a betting guide for that. Woo!
13:26
Go on over to vsin.com/subscribe. Take advantage of our sports equinox special. We talked about that. Yes, we know it was on Monday. We've extended it until Sunday. Yes. Because we can do that.
13:35
It's our, it's our special. We can extend if we want to.
13:38
Uh, $120 for everything we do from now to May the 1st, including this Breeders' Cup betting guide, which, again, that starts today, so you might wanna go in and take advantage of this offer now. Yes.
13:50
Because, uh, the races do start a little bit later today. So it should be fun. And like we said, there's some horses in there. Kelly didn't think he was gonna know any of these horses.
13:57
I read off the names, you're like, "Oh, yeah, I remember losing money on that horse." At least like three or four of those. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. And, and at least half of them I lost money on. Yeah. Yeah, for sure.
14:03
I remember losing money on that horse. So there we go. All right, back into the NFL, and the Patriots and Titans game is a game in which, uh, you know, I, I... Does it matter who plays- It's gross...
14:16
quarterback for the Ti- I mean, I, I, I guess it does. I m- uh, does it to you? I mean, w- Didn't see any- Mason Rudolph and Will Levis to me mean nothing. Yeah, it's just- They might as well be the same human.
14:29
There's higher variance, I think, when Levis is involved. Other th- Oh, yeah, on the bad end. Yeah, on the...
14:35
But, you know, I, well, I want to say on the good end, too, but I guess he hasn't really exactly proven that yet in his [laughs] NFL career, so. There's a much lower floor with Levis is what you're saying. Yeah. Yeah.
14:44
Oh, I was gonna say higher ceiling, too, but I, I don't know that he's actually proven that yet, so I don't know- No... that I can say that. But yes, there is definitely a lower floor with Levis.
14:51
So this is three and a half in favor of the Titans at home over the Patriots, 38, 38 and a half. I mean, this, uh... Oh, boy. It doesn't look like we're gonna get Drake May.
15:02
We haven't seen- So that's what I was checking on. May will be a limited, will be limited in practice today. Yeah. But it, so there's steps to these concussion protocols.
15:11
Unless we know what steps these dudes are in, we don't really know what the- Yeah, so what is it, five steps or something? Yeah. Yeah, like- They gotta work their way through a practice week. Yeah.
15:18
Yeah, and so it's just like, you know, we don't really know. So, i- okay, how about this then?
15:22
Since we don't know who's playing quarterback for the Titans or the Patriots, does it change your view on this game, as we sit at three and a half,
15:30
if it were, if it were Jacoby Brissett versus Mason Rudolph, or if it was- Yeah... Jacoby Brissett versus Will Levis, or if it w- you know, does that- Okay, no, it actually does. Okay. 'Cause if there is...
15:40
If I knew I was getting Brissett/Rudolph, which is probably the most likely of what I'm getting this week- Mm-hmm... it under intrigues me a lot more. Mm-hmm.
15:47
If it was May and Levis, I think an over is far more interesting in this game. That is, that is exactly what I was thinking, though I don't think we're gonna get that scenario. I don't think we're getting that scenario.
15:55
'Cause the 38, and the reason you're [laughs] I think that's why the total is 38. [laughs] Yeah.
16:00
And, and the reason you're, you're saying that and people are going like, "Wait, wait, wait, you, you guys hate these teams," well, true, but there is a lot of turnover stuff going on- Right... with Will Levis.
16:09
There's at least a decent amount of turn- look, uh, I think Drake May's gonna be good, actually. I like what he's do- but he's also a gunslinger right now. Yeah, he is a gunslinger. Yep.
16:16
And, and that can turn into turnovers as well. For what it's worth, the Titans defense is not a p- complete pushover. Nope. The Patriots is probably a complete pushover, though.
16:25
With all the stuff that's going on, I mean, their injury report. The reason I'm not even, like, reading off any of the stuff of that, like, this is...
16:30
Drew Mayo just took over right where Bill Belichick left off, and, like, puts, like, 17 people on his injury report every week, you know, whether the guys are actually quest- Players are the best. Yeah.
16:38
Whether they're actually questionable or not, and so there's, there's no way to try to decipher what's going on with all of that.
16:43
But they do have some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, which leads me to believe that no matter who's playing quarterback, while Levis might throw it to the other team twice, I think he can probably get in the end zone twice as well.
16:52
Mm-hmm. Two or three times. And so the over would be the only way to play, but of course, I would need the, the right quarterback combo to make that happen.
16:59
I, I, e- even I guess one of them could, it would interest me, but I, this is... Matt, too many games on in the early window. I will happily not be watching this one. Yeah, you don't- Or very little of it, I should say.
17:10
Yeah, that's, this, this one's just not one that- What- whatever ends up on the red zone screen, which I don't think there's gonna be many red zone opportunities in this game. Here's the deal.
17:17
If you don't bet the Titans, and they win by 10, you're gonna be like, "Dude, why didn't I bet the Titans, of course?" You know? I mean, they're way better than the Patriots. And then you...
17:25
Or if you do bet the Titans, and then they lose outright, you're going, "Well, what in the hell was I doing betting the Titans?" Well, yes. You know?
17:29
So if you have a, if you have that feeling going on, you probably just leave it alone. Commanders and the Giants. This one is super interesting, because this one has...
17:38
We've seen some, some real movement here on this as well. People are starting to come in, so people are starting to like this Ti- uh, Commander squad. And we're up to four now. Kelly- I saw four and a half last night.
17:46
Yeah, yeah, in favor of this Commanders team. So all those three and a halves, um, people money continue to come in on Washington. 44, 44 and a half is our total. I played the over, um- Ooh... in this.
17:59
I played the over 44. And if you go in and look, this is a really good Washington offense that has been really efficient over the course of the season, but the defense has been equally as disappointing.
18:12
And then you look on the Giants side of things, we know that their defense isn't any good.
18:15
And I actually think that there is some success to be had Against the Commanders with this Giants team, with this Giants team fully healthy.
18:24
I mean, you gotta remember there was a couple games with Daniel Jones was without Malik Nabers. So y- y- yes, the overall stats don't, don't look good, but I think this... I don't think it's good.
18:34
I think this offense, though, if you, if you look at what they, what they probably can do against bad defenses, I think they can be a league average offense against bad defenses. Yeah, me too.
18:42
And with that, and with that, you know, is there... I- would it shock you at all if Washington played into the 30s in this game? Like, I don't think that that would be shocking.
18:49
And now we're asking for w- 17 points, 14 points out of, out of the Giants in order to get this thing over. And so I like that. And then I also like- Oh, okay... I also like Malik Nabers, um,
19:01
on his over 68 and a half receiving yards. He is going to get... I mean, with Daniel Jones' job basically under fire right now and everything that's going on with what may or may not be happening with Daniel.
19:13
I know they say he's safe. I know they say that. I, I don't know for sure either. It would not surprise me to see Nabers get 14, 15 targets in this game. Yeah, I wouldn't either. I mean, this is a...
19:23
Whether you wanna call it development or lack of other options, like, Daniel Jones is gonna keep forcing the ball to, uh, to him. Mm-hmm.
19:30
Like you said, even for Jones, kinda it makes sense to try to, try to save his job, too. This is, this is what I've been interested in the movement. I... I'll be honest though, this Washington team, it's...
19:40
I'm not really interested in betting them. They're this big of a favorite on the road with a rookie quarterback. But having said that, Matt, like, I don't know. You could keep moving this number.
19:48
I don't know how high it would have to get up to before I'd actually be interested in the Giants side. I think an interesting look from you on the total. I'd agree with you. Over is probably the only way I would look.
19:56
I just... I don't... This defense has been terrible outside of the co- you know, couple guys they got on the infa- uh, on the interior of the defensive line.
20:03
And DJ's gonna give us, uh, he's gonna give us a couple turnovers. Right. Like, like, Dan- Daniel Jones is gonna... He...
20:07
At least one, if not two, so we're gonna have a short field to work with with Washington as well, so, um- If anything, I got like...
20:13
I would go, instead of the side and laying this many points, just like Washington team total over- Yeah... is probably how I'd play it if you were interested in Washington, but yeah, nothing for me on this one.
20:21
The Saints and the Panthers. This is sitting at a touchdown in favor of the Saints. 43 and a half is our total here in this one. Saints on the road. As touchdown favorites, as currently constructed, seems
20:36
odd to me, off to me. I know Derek Carr is gonna be back for the Saints. I get that. I just look at this defense that has a ton of injuries.
20:46
I look on the offensive side and say, "Hey, Derek Carr had to sit out because of an oblique injury." Seems like that's a pretty important injury for a quarterback. I don't know, man. I can't get there, and I'm not...
20:58
I'm certainly never taking the points with the Panthers either. You can't. You can't right now. Bryce Young, by the way, will start for this Panthers team. But I- I'm not laying it with, with the Saints.
21:07
This is like, seems like a contest play for me in which I play the Panthers and, like, so I don't have to actually bet my own money on it. [laughs] You know? But, like, it's just kinda...
21:14
I, I go, I'm taking the stand in a contest as opposed to the money, which, like, there's no way the Saints should be a touchdown favorite on the road against anyone.
21:22
But at the same time, like, I'm not willing to go that. Yeah, the problem is we, we've gotten to the point with these Panthers games that this is...
21:27
That's basically the analysis every week for me, where I'm like, "I can't... I cannot bet my money on this Panthers team, yet I don't know that I can justify what this line is at right now." Yeah. Um,
21:37
the Saints, like, this is... I, I just gotta see it first again. Like, I gotta see this team looking good before I, before I get confident betting them again. Um, last week I tried to go with them against the Chargers.
21:47
Obviously, the quarterback situation was very different. That didn't end well. I think, though, if you were, if you were interested in betting the Saints this week, I'd be, I'd be adding alts. Like, and this is...
21:57
If they happen to look good and they cover a touchdown, they could be, they could win by two or three scores. That wouldn't shock me at all. Yeah, it's...
22:04
Looks like Jonathan Brooks is gonna be back for the Panthers this week.
22:07
He is, was a super highly touted running back, and the reason he didn't go a- any higher than he did was because he got injured, so he's been recovering from a, a, an injury since the beginning of the season, but- Hasn't played yet, right?
22:21
No, hasn't played. Yeah. So this would be making his season debut for this Panthers team. New Orleans, for what it's worth, their rush defense EPA allowed is 30th overall in the NFL.
22:30
Their rush defense success rate allowed is 27th overall in the NFL. And according to DVOA, their rush defense is 32nd out of 32.
22:39
Wouldn't surprise me to see a healthy dose here of Chuba Hubbard and Brooks in, in, in this one trying to just go and attack what is the worst part of this Saints defense. And so, I don't know, man. It seems...
22:53
Th- this could be an, this could be an ugly cover for the Panthers. Yeah, I was just... I know. I'll just, I'll just leave it at that. Also sounds like you, you might be talking yourself into an under play, too.
23:00
Could be something that could end up in the account before it's all said and done. Broncos and Ravens, Jags and Eagles, Bears and Cardinals when we come back.
23:07
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:23
Rolling along here talking NFL games on the number game here on Beast and Kelly. We buried the lead, though. You did not give your review of the, uh- Oh, yeah... Ghost, uh, the Ghost Reese's.
23:34
Uh, we can't- Is that what it was called? We can't call it, we can't call it white chocolate because apparently we'll get sued if we do that. [laughs] But it is, they said it is, is a white coating on it or something.
23:43
Enrobed in w- in, in white cream. There it is, yes. That's what it was, yes. In white.
23:47
And the, so revea- okay, let's, um, give the, the verbal, verbal review and then give a number on like a, on a one to 10 of where it, or where it falls. Well, it would not make my top five Halloween- Okay...
23:57
candy power rankings. Okay. Or the one thing that's really stayed with me since yesterday is what you said, it's just candy power rankings. Mm. Yeah. Like, you don't need to include the word- You don't... Halloween.
24:04
I mean, um, Roberto Moreno, who works here, gave us the what about candy corn, which that's about as close to, like, a Halloween candy as there actually is because it is when it really kinda, like, reeks its, like- Yeah, that's true...
24:16
ugly head out, but, like- It, it's a seasonal delight, too. Yeah. It's kinda like, it's kinda like a Christmas cookie, right? But I was gonna say, but it hangs around your Christmas.
24:23
Christmas cookies are not the best cookies. Yeah. Yeah. They're not the best cookies, but you have them around Christmas, right? And candy corn hangs around through Thanksgiving as well.
24:29
Like, it's a popular decoration on Thanks- Yeah... so it's, it- So I'm never gonna bash candy corn, but they're also never gonna be, like, a top item of mine. All right, we're back, back to the topic at hand here.
24:35
Our, our Ghost Reese- Yeah, it was, it was good. Um, you know what, though? I think it's the, uh, the white chocolate versus, uh, you know, milk chocolate. Like, I'd rather just give me the regular.
24:43
Give me, give me a- One to 10, where is this thing? Well, it's a Reese's. And so are we, are we on a Reese's scale one to 10, or are we on a candy scale one to 10?
24:50
Well, I, I mean, you know- 'Cause it's still over five if we're just on a candy scale one to 10 because it's Reese's. 'Cause it includes peanut butter. Exactly. Okay, so we're- Peanut butter and chocolate...
24:58
like, like a seven? We'll give it a seven? Yeah, we'll give it a seven. You're telling people they don't have to rush out and get it, but maybe try it.
25:03
Yeah, give it a t- I mean, like me, if you see a new Reese's product on the stands, you're trying it. You're going, yeah. So yeah, yeah, try it. Yeah. You're gonna, you're gonna do what you've gotta do.
25:10
You can see right here, Kelly's from yesterday, Butterfinger Reese. You see the, you, you kinda see the, the, uh, peanut butter theme there- That's right, Butterfinger and Reese's... at the top. Yeah. Yep.
25:18
There at the top. Right at the top. I think they make peanut butter Kit Kats now, too, don't they? Uh, yes, I believe so. I, I think, I think they do. And it's very- And if, and if they're not, they should be. Yes.
25:27
Not going to- And as we decided yesterday, the Kat is the, uh, is the little wafer part inside. Yeah. I, [laughs] I, I went and bought, um, far too much candy.
25:37
Oh, I was gonna say, do you, uh, do you do the same thing I do? I went and bought far too much candy. Ended up only having, like, five trick or treaters.
25:43
I was gonna say, you, you at least have some people show up at your place. You know, only had, like, five. So when I realized it was gonna be a slow night, that fourth and fifth person, "You're welcome." They, oh, yeah.
25:53
"You're, you're welcome." As they're like, they come up, and I'm just kinda like, [exhales loudly] [laughs] You know, just doing like this, just, you know, you're dumping it in there.
26:01
I believe- Kids looking at me like, "Hey, you're gonna fill up my whole thing." I'm like, "Isn't that the point?" Like, I mean, like, what's going on? I'm g- yeah, I'm gonna fill your thing up.
26:07
You don't have to go anywhere else. Go home. I had, uh, nobody show up this year. Last year it was two kids. The second kid got an entire bag. Yeah. It was an entire fun size. I'm like, "Here, please, take it." Yeah.
26:15
Like, "Just take this." Just take it. I don't need this at home anyway. All right, let's get back to the NFL Broncos and Ravens.
26:21
I did put a Broncos nine and a half ticket in my account yesterday on the news that Lamar Jackson did not practice for a second day in a row. Now, I fully expect him to have some sort of practice today.
26:33
And- Yeah, that line's already on the move. I, I fully expect him to have some sort of practice today, Kelly, and I also expect him to play this week.
26:39
But that didn't, that doesn't deter me at all from the position that I wanted to take, which is Lamar Jackson, where he is not allowed to be Lamar Jackson, is not Lamar Jackson, right?
26:51
And so if we're talking about a back and a knee thing, I mean, uh, uh, that, that was bad enough to have two DNPs in a row, he's going to play... Yeah, he gets the good stuff. I know. W- I, I can't...
27:01
One ti- one time in my life, man, I wanna get the good stuff- [laughs]... that they talk about that the NFL players get. Like, can, can I, like, beat your knee first with, like, a bat?
27:07
Like, like, I just first- Take a bat... like, I get, I, I get outta bed, and I've got that, like, creaky thing, and I just like, be like, "Can I get the good stuff this morning?"
27:13
And like, I just come in here, and next thing I'm doing back flips off the desk and thi- Yeah, like, I believe you could be, yeah... like, I just wanna try it one time in my life. But, uh, he's, and he'll probably play.
27:20
But how many design runs are we gonna get? Is he gonna be a little more, a little, a little more hesitant to take off than he would be?
27:27
Because we're talking about some injuries that were, again, bad enough to keep him out of practice for two days in a row.
27:32
Now we're getting up into that, like, close to double digit territory with a Broncos team that does have a very good defense.
27:38
And so I think that there is just a lot of dots to be connected here to me getting to, to taking the, the, the Broncos in this.
27:45
And so, you know, I know you're on the other side with, with the Ravens, but, um, I'm okay with backing a really, really good defense against what looks to be, at the very least, a compromised Lamar Jackson, and I guess outside chance he doesn't play, but I, I probably think he does.
28:00
Yeah, I have absolutely no idea what to make of the Lamar Jackson news, 'cause we've seen, we've only seen... I mean, we've seen so many confusing injury reports with him before in years past.
28:09
I'm not completely scared yet. Yet I'm also not sel- telling anybody, "Yes." I played the Ravens in a teaser on the opener. It's back in teaser range.
28:17
If I were you and hadn't bet it at home, though, I would not be betting this right now.
28:22
Uh, I would just be, yes, I could say I wait for Lamar news, but it's Lamar news, and then you're gonna have to try to beat the books to the move, um, if it, if it looks like he's gonna be a go and a full go.
28:32
But that's probably how I'd be approaching it at this point. Mm. It's, uh, it's just there's too much unknown right now with two significant, I mean, what?
28:39
The number three quarterback, I'm gonna guess, that matters the most to a, a point spread in the league? Oh, easily. Behind Mahomes and Josh Allen maybe. Yeah. Like, that's probably it.
28:48
So, um, I, uh, with, with, uh, so much up in the air, I don't really know how, how you could approach this game right now unless you're, unless, uh, unless you're in line with Matt, thinking it's Broncos t- getting too many points.
28:58
And look, I mean, at the end of the day, this is the number one pass defense in the NFL. They're a great defense.
29:02
Yeah, like this, the number one pass defense in the NFL, so it was gonna be a struggle anyway for Lamar through the air. And so now I thought they would be a little bit more, a little bit more ground heavy.
29:11
And if that can't be the case because of any injury situations, then I, I'll, I'll take the points. There's a lot of points there.
29:15
Yeah, just another, another injury note I just saw come down, a follow-up from a game from earlier. T. Higgins not at practice again this today. T. ain't gonna play. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's- Not looking good...
29:23
that's the, that's the full on he ain't gonna play. Like, you're- He missed all week. Yep. Miss- missed all week with a, with an injury that pops up late in the week last week and all.
29:33
It's probably, this is probably, like, donezo for the season for this, uh- Those, the, the ones that-... this Eagle team... these ones that happen in practice are tough, right? Mm-hmm. 'Cause you, you really don't know.
29:41
You didn't get to see it with your own eyes. You don't know how bad it might be, and then they get to just play it close to the vest, basically, throughout the, throughout the entirety of it.
29:49
Jags and the Eagles, right off the bat, this was one that I played one of those kind of, uh, alternate line parlays we talked about yesterday- Yep... on the program.
29:59
If you're just joining us today and didn't listen in, you don't always have to take the full six points, in my opinion, with a teaser. So we're really just trying to get through the seven, six, and three.
30:08
And so, you know, if you're sitting, if you're sitting seven and a half and you just wanna take it down to two and a half, you're only asking for five points from the book.
30:14
And if you do that, you can get a better price than some of the pre-batch teasers that are out there.
30:18
As Kelly said, he messed around with it, and actually, the pre-batch teaser number was better than some of the alt lines that he was looking at.
30:24
So again, it's always just good, plug it in and see what it looks like for you. Right. Yeah. And then, you know, uh, uh, sometimes you can even get, like, you know, even money plus money sometimes on, on these.
30:32
So just keep that in mind whenever you're going out and making these. But I'd put the Eagles in. I'm a Eagles believer, as everybody knows. Super high on them coming into the season.
30:39
They gave me reason to doubt, but it was a pretty complete performance last week by this team. And if you actually look into the stats, Kelly
30:46
They've been, they've been an upper 10 team in just about a l- in just about everything out there.
30:52
The only thing you really wish you'd see more out of them is a little bit pre- a little bit more pressure on the quarterback, but we did see that last week from them as well. I, um...
31:03
And then you just got this beat-up receiver room.
31:05
It does look like Brian Ja- Brian Thomas is gonna be able to play for Jacksonville, but I think, I mean, again, playing injured, how much is he going to be able to do out there? So. I don't...
31:12
That still shocks me, though. Yeah. Like, I thought- I know, what's the point? Season's lost. Why would you- Right. Yeah... why would you, yeah, put your first rounder out there injured? Makes no sense.
31:19
But, but aren't you, you're... W- w- what, we have questionable for him and Gabe Davis. It sure sounded a lot from what I was reading, like, uh, reading yesterday, that these guys are gonna go. Yeah.
31:28
And, and like you said, like you said, maybe they are hurt and they're gonna be playing through s- you know, playing through something that does affect their play a little bit.
31:34
But man, I, I guess I'm w- thinking Brian Thomas ain't that bad, because why would you be playing him otherwise? Yeah. Like, this is, he is too important to the future of your franchise.
31:44
Unless you are also coaching for your job, which we know that is 100% the case. Yeah, that's a good point. 100- Eh, that is a good point... 100% the case.
31:51
The much maligned pass defense for this Eagles squad from last year has been much, much better this year. I know it's been a little bit under the radar. Much, much better compared to where they were last year.
32:01
We're talking about 30th in the league in this statistic. Right. 29th in the league in this statistic. They're 14th overall pass offense, I mean, uh, pass defense EPA.
32:09
Their pass defense success rate's actually top 10 right now, so guys just aren't really, you know, getting on schedule against them in early downs and stuff.
32:16
And so this is the stuff that you're looking for when you're trying to make, you know, strides, and they go out, they draft a couple of guys. It, it...
32:21
They did very, very well, uh, you know, in my opinion, in what the Eagles have done. And so I think that they, I think that they win this game.
32:27
They could win this game handily, but I'll just go ahead and just take it down under the three, and that's how I played this one. Yeah, this is... I, I did the same thing. I, I involved them in teasers.
32:35
Um, Ea- Eagles would probably be a side, though, for me in circle millions. I, I think they could win big. I, with this offense looking better, uh, and more on track, and I think it does.
32:44
It, it, like you said, the secondary, the, uh, the defensive secondary hasn't been talked about as much because the f- the offense I feel like has been so much of the focus of all of us all season because we...
32:54
You know, I was with you, very high expectations for this team heading into the year.
32:57
Kinda had to readjust what my expectations were after, after, you know, five, six weeks, 'cause they did not look like the same team we thought they were gonna be.
33:04
But then you go look at the past three weeks and look what Hurts has done. He's looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. And this Jaguars defense, maybe this also flying under the radar a bit, Matt.
33:13
I don't know if people f- like, realize that they are the worst or one of the worst [laughs] defenses in the NFL, but they're right there. So I think you're going into Philly.
33:21
I expect Philly to put up some points in this one. Yeah. I, I really liked what I saw from them last week. And so with that, I think that this is the team to back.
33:30
And I actually think this is the team we're gonna be talking about in a couple of weeks that might actually be in the mix as far as, like, teams that we might think could actually- Yeah... win the Super Bowl.
33:38
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33:47
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34:00
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34:02
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:22
Last segment here on a Friday, running through these NFL games. Matt in for Gil. Kelly, we've got the Bears on the road at the Cardinals.
34:30
The Cardinals are currently favored by about a point and a half at most books out there. 44 and a half is our total. A lot of injury stuff here that's kind of affecting this one, which makes it a tough handicap.
34:43
Very tough. There's... Yeah, there's just all kinds of things. The variables, as they say, where I'm just kinda like, "Man, if I knew a little bit more, maybe I could have a, a good opinion on all of this."
34:54
But we got, like, offensive line stuff going on for the Bears. We got some defensive stuff going on for the Bears. It's just n- I don't know, man. These games...
35:03
Like, offensive line news, as you guys have been watching our content from way back. You know, we were talking about this, you know, five, six years ago here on the network.
35:10
I just weigh offensive line stuff way higher than I think most people do, and I think we see that last night. Nova... I mean, look at the Texans.
35:18
I mean, it's, you know, eight sacks, pressure on basically every other drop back and all that. It's just, it's... Now you're adding it's a rookie quarterback situation. Yeah.
35:25
I understand that the Ar- I understand Arizona doesn't get a ton of pressure on the quarterback to begin with, but, you know, if th- it is a bunch of, you know, if it's two of the five or three of the five that are gonna be new out there for a rookie QB, it's just...
35:37
I don't know. It's tough for me. So I can't, I can't really make a position on this one yet. I got nothing here either way.
35:41
If you listened to the show yesterday, scariest team to bet on in the second half for me, uh, and all year has just been the Arizona Cardinals. Mm. 'Cause it is...
35:47
I, I think you would naturally like to look at them or overs. You think this offense is gonna click and the defense is, uh, it, you know, get, gonna get scored on a fair amount.
35:55
But I, this game side total would a pre- pretty easy pass for me. Detroit Lions on the road at the Packers. So
36:05
I have kinda planted my flag here on this, uh, Lions, and then a rebet on the Lions now that this thing has gotten under a field goal for the Lions. 48, 48 and a half is our total.
36:16
The news for the Packers is that Jordan Love was back out at practice. If you read the beat r- writer reports, he didn't do much. Um,
36:24
I am of the mindset here, Kelly, and I understand Aidan Hutchinson isn't out there for this Lions team. But a Jordan Love that has to sit in the pocket- Yep...
36:38
and isn't able to kind of extend plays and use his legs and do the stuff that makes Jordan Love... I mean, I, I guess I, my problem is, is I watched that game last week.
36:48
And maybe had I not watched that game last week, it wouldn't be burnt into my brain what it looked like when he was trying to play last week, and all of the hobbling and all of the stuff, and to the point where he had to pull himself out.
36:59
I mean, I get it. Hutchinson isn't out there. They still blit the, blitz at the fifth highest rate in the NFL.
37:05
Like, they're gonna be bringing the heat on the Packers all game long and against Jordan Love and, and that, I guess, groin it is. Uh, it looked like it was a leg, by the way I get, but you know, groin, uh, with him.
37:17
I, I, I s- I just like the Lions, man. I, I do. And, and a compromised Jordan Love I will bet against with the team that I have as the second overall team in the NFL. Yeah, this is a...
37:27
This would be Lions or pass for me right now. I, I haven't bet anything yet. I want, I want clearer information on Jordan Love, which means I'm probably not gonna end up betting this game.
37:37
Or, uh, or I'll take the approach just to look in game. W- wait till this game kicks off. Who do I have at quarterback? Then I can try to play around with these Lions numbers a bit and get involved.
37:45
Uh, that's the only way I can look at it. I think what you were starting to say about Lamar Jackson with the Ravens a- and then kinda just said the same thing- Mm... about Love.
37:53
Love I'm more con- uh, more worried about that with because I think they are more willing to put Jordan Love in that position- Mm...
38:00
where he's gonna try, "Okay, you might be, might be hampered, might not be able to move around like he's used to," and he's still, they're still gonna try to force him to be a pocket passer, and I think that could lead to ugly results.
38:10
Whereas, like Lamar Jackson, I actually think that the... I think the Ravens are smart enough to know if that's, if, if that's what he has to be, like, it's almost not even worth playing the guy.
38:18
You might as well give him a week off, uh, and let him get, get back to that full athleticism. So I, I...
38:23
A long way of saying I think that he could very m- a very good chance Love goes this week, but is really hobbled by w- by his injuries.
38:30
Uh, also just looking at people that are worried about golf and outdoors and things like that, it's gonna be like 52, 53 degrees in Green Bay. So more of a Las Vegas. Got it.
38:39
So it's not, it's not like one of those deals where we're, like, freaking out because- Yeah... you know, he's playing in, in something that's gonna be really, really cold out there.
38:46
The other thing just, just real quick, it's like Detroit is, is... should be able, should, again, be able to move the chains and keep these chains moving against the Green Bay's defense.
38:57
And not Green Bay's defense is bad, but they allow you to kinda, like, cobble together these, you know, longer drives on them. They do that whole bend don't break thing.
39:06
But the problem is, is, like, the Lions, I think can, can actually break it. And so, again, under three, I'm willing to be wrong.
39:12
It's the team I've got number two overall in the NFL, and if we're getting it under three with a, against a compromised quarterback, I think it would be silly of me not to play it. Yeah, I hear you.
39:19
Like, just- And, and the line movement has been enticing to me all week 'cause I want, I want to bet, I want to bet- Yeah... two and a half on a bet, but, uh- Yeah... I stayed away from it. I got you.
39:27
Rams and the Seahawks, um, you know, again, we keep talking about these games that it's, it's a bummer that it's kinda, like, unbettable right now in my opinion in, in what we're doing.
39:35
But I mean, Puka Nacua and D- DK Metcalf are, like, two of the most important pieces in this game. We don't know what's going on with either one of these guys. You might know by this afternoon.
39:44
Like, we'll get practice reports and things like that, and you can see what the official, official designation is on these guys, Kelly. But it's sitting one, one and a half right now in favor of the Rams.
39:52
We've seen this kinda, like, go back to pick 'em, then back to one, then back to pick 'em. So, uh, e- even the market is kinda confused as to what to do here.
40:00
Uh, you, you know, I s- I saw what Seattle looked like without DK Metcalf, and I know that McDonald keeps saying that he thinks that he's gonna...
40:06
You know, he's optimistic that he's gonna be out there, and I, I keep reading all the stuff where he's saying like, "Yeah, you know, he could play even if he didn't, if he doesn't, uh, practice."
40:14
But it's a wide re- it's a wide receiver with a leg injury. Yeah. I mean, you know, wide receiver with a leg injury. What did we say, what did we see with Mike Evans two weeks ago?
40:22
Wide receiver with a leg injury who didn't practice, who went and played anyway, and then he played, you know, whatever it was, 12 snaps or whatever it was, 15 snaps, and then he was gone.
40:30
So I don't know, tough for me to get an opinion. Yeah, nothing for me here. I, I think a couple sharp guys I've, I've listened to on the Rams, but they were on the Rams early. I think that's why you're...
40:39
Uh, look, it's, you've brought up offensive line play early. I think Seattle's the, the best case example of this in the league this entire year. Mm.
40:44
They, they have looked good when they can play against teams that don't get much of a pass rush.
40:48
Rams right about down the middle, but pro- I, I lean to one of the better pass rush, uh, you know, at least probably a top 12, top 10 pass rush unit in the NFL. So I'm not messing around with that with Seattle.
40:58
Colts and the Vikings. This is off of the six, and most of the... well, a couple of the five and a halfs have been bought up as well. Five, five and a half in favor of the Vikings. 46 and a half is the total.
41:09
The big news here, of course, the Colts have benched Anthony Richardson, and they have gone with Joe Flacco. Kelly, I think Flacco does give them the best chance to win.
41:17
I think Flacco actually gives them the best chance to cover this game as well. If this was Anthony Richardson, I might come in and think that this could be a decent little spot here on the Vikings at home.
41:24
But with it being Flacco, I think this is probably one on Sunday night I'm just gonna sit back and watch. Yeah, me too. I... It was a bet for me with Richardson in, a, not a bet, uh, at current price with Flacco.
41:33
Just can't do it. And then on Monday night, Bucs and the Chiefs. This is just, the Chiefs just so obvious a teaser leg here. I, I mean, the Bucs, no receivers, all kinds of stuff going on with them.
41:44
Bucky Irving, by the way, not out, but not out of practice today. I've just seen coming through the Twitter machine here.
41:48
So even your guy that was kinda playing really good not gonna be out there, so, uh, this is, like, the most obvious of obvious teaser legs. Yeah, I haven't...
41:56
I, I guess I haven't found it at one of my shops to be in that eight and a half range. Eight and a half, uh, at Circa, eight and a half at DraftKings too, I believe. So if you are in a- Mm...
42:04
yeah, if you're in a DraftKings jurisdiction, you're getting minus 120 on those teasers, I'm with you per. It would absolutely be included in my teasers this week. All right, let's tee up these G Bank best bets.
42:12
This, uh, for me, like I said, I scooped up the nine and a half on the Broncos against the Ravens on the news that we might have a compromised Lamar Jackson. I don't think he's not going to play.
42:22
I think he will play, but I think, uh, you know, at the very least you have to assume that he's going to be compromised. I did take the two on the Browns as well. I think if we get a good Jameis game, w- Browns win.
42:31
If we get a bad Jameis game, the Browns lose. And so I'll go ahead and just assume that we see a little bit of what we got last week out of Jameis Winston.
42:38
And I played the Lions, played them a couple different times, couple different ways, and just kinda went over that game. Everyone knows where I stand there. Yep.
42:44
Uh, for me, uh, let's see, I do have a teaser [laughs] to close out- Yeah... I guess from last night. Texans side to push Eagles, [laughs] uh, Eagles to get me something on that one.
42:51
And then I've got Ravens Bengals teaser, Browns Eagles teaser, so just three, yeah, teasers in the account for me so far. Uh, moving on to guests we had on the show today, Paul Carr.
43:01
Nottingham Forest, whose mascot is whom, uh, Matt Brown? Yes, the Tricky Trees. The Tricky Trees plus 115 verse West Ham. That, uh, is tomorrow. Liverpool Brighton under three and a half.
43:12
Bournemouth double chance or the over, uh, uh, plus, uh, plus a half a goal. I thought I was gonna do that smoothly. I didn't. [laughs] Oh, man.
43:22
All right, Chris Felica today, uh, at Del Mar, race six, Asterius, nine to two. Uh, also today, race nine, East Avenue at, uh, five to two. There we go. Uh, and then race eight tomorrow, New Gate.
43:36
I wrote down the outright price. Be careful with it, though. Chris said he was gonna be mixing in, uh, New Gate in that one. And then I believe we have Mike Somisches as well from yesterday, if we wanna review those.
43:46
Race nine today, Jonathan's Way. Race five tomorrow, Brad Sell. And race eight, Forever Young, he will be going with i- tomorrow in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
43:57
These best bets are brought to you by GBank, the official bank of VSiN.
44:00
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44:11
That is V-S-I-N.com, the letter G-B-A-N-K, subject to credit approval, and terms and conditions do apply. Coming through right now, uh, Lamar Jackson has walked onto the practice field, they said.
44:26
So at the very least, he will be limited today because that's limit- He'll be limited. They qualified. [laughs] 'Cause that's a, that is a limited practice.
44:31
So I mean, at the very least, he will be limited today, and, uh, we'll get more notes on how this all plays out. It has been fun filling in for Gil, guys. Appreciate you guys having me here on the desk. Stay tuned.
44:43
Our very own Swiss Army knife, the wonderful and talented Stormy Bombshell coming up next here on Money Moves. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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