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Nov 20, 2024
A Numbers Game | November 20, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | November 20, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:59
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:34
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it.
0:42
It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside, producer number nine, so much more than a producer.
0:47
Still to come this hour, Tim Murray, college football, Jason Weingartner, uh, Weingartner, Weingarten, pardon me, that happens every o- once every o- six months or so, uh, on ML- Weingarten... MLB Awards and more.
1:00
Uh, we'll get into that. Did you see this real quick, Alex Kane, by the way, from SportTrade's, uh, standing by here.
1:04
Did you see this thing about, uh, the NFL w- uh, or anybody who was talking about the Bengals-Cowboys Monday Night Football game in week, is it 13? Is it next week? Oh, there's a lot of weird NFL things going on.
1:17
Yes, I saw this.
1:19
Yeah, so the, uh, anybody who thought, "Yeah, let's, uh, flex out that Monday Night Football game," and yes, you are allowed, by the way, week 14 is the game in question between the, uh, Bengals and the Cowboys.
1:29
It's a Monday night game, and you are allowed to flex Monday night games. Remember, this actually happened last year.
1:34
I had forgotten that the Chiefs-Patriots in week 15 was replaced by the Eagles-Seahawks last year on Monday night. When did they start that? A couple years a- it can't be going on for that long, right?
1:44
It's the only, I think it's the only time a Monday night game has ever been flexed out. Oh, okay. All right. Usually, I mean, Sunday nights- Yeah... are flex out all the time.
1:50
Uh, but they were considering this, and they cannot flex out the Bengals- [laughs]... and the Cowboys, uh, on Monday night of week 14 because of The Simpsons.
2:00
ESPN and Disney have been planning a Simpsons alternate cast for the December 9th Monday Night Football game, and apparently it's standing in the way of the game being replaced.
2:08
For those asking, this is a quote, uh, for those asking, quote, "The Bengals-Cowboys Monday Night Football game is not eligible to be flexed out because of all the drawings, voiceovers, and other work that has been done for The Simpsons alt cast that will air that night," reports- Wow...
2:25
uh, Bengals beat writer Jay Morrison of benglestalk.com. I mean, Gil, when you got a hot new show on the scene like The Simpsons- Yeah... you gotta do everything to promote it, okay? [laughs] Yeah.
2:33
You gotta help get it out there. 'Cause people don't know about it, Kelly. They don't know about it.
2:36
[laughs] Um, yeah, I think this is, I think this might be a good lesson of we've gone too far with the, like, the Nickelodeon alt cast, which are cool, right? They're great.
2:46
Uh, wasn't there a Toy Story one or something where they were all, like- I don't know... animated? I don't know.
2:50
But this, this is the problem you run into, 'cause you gotta plan that stuff so far in advance, and all of a sudden you don't want that game anymore, and you've got an issue.
2:57
Bengals-Cowboys you shall have on Monday night. Um, I'll tell you what people do need to know about. They need to know about SportTrade. Their CEO, Alex Kane, joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
3:07
You can follow Alex on Twitter at, let me hope I get this, I hope I get this right, A_Kane47. I believe that's correct. A little AK-47 thing, Alex. Is that what we have in there? I think that's it. How you doing, man?
3:19
Doing very good. Good morning to you guys. Thanks so much for having me. Uh, thanks for coming on again. We're always, uh, appreciative when you do.
3:26
Let, let me just ask you a couple questions, and we'll get to the good stuff. First is, you know, we, we run these promos for SportTrade, uh, minus 104 lines instead of the typical minus 110.
3:35
Do you consider yourself, because New Jersey's where the, where you started as an exchange, do you consider yourself an exchange now or a low vig sportsbook at this point?
3:44
That is a brilliant question, and then lead into a much larger topic- Okay... um, which I'm so excited to talk about and, and, and introduce to your audience.
3:52
I think when we started, we had a, we had a customer experience that came across maybe a bit too financially for the normal sports bettor.
4:01
And so one of the amazing benefits of an exchange is that there are great prices, and there's already great liquidity.
4:07
So what we decided to do over the summer was said, like, "Look, let's pitch ourselves as a very simple, easy-to-use sportsbook that has great prices."
4:15
And the partnership with you guys, let me just tell you, it's been awesome.
4:18
I think I've said the same thing to Bill when I went to his, uh, birthday party there, um, at the Legacy Club, which was great, a couple months ago. That was awesome.
4:26
Um, it's been awesome, because we have customers coming in saying, "Wow, you guys have great prices. It's true. You have great liquidity."
4:33
It's part of the larger plan where we're trying to get players to see, okay, not just great prices, not just great liquidity, SportTrade is also an exchange.
4:42
It does also allow you to think about sports betting, I'm not kidding, in a totally different way.
4:48
And so we decided to kind of take the scenic route to get there, because we found there was such an opportunity to bring players onto the platform that may not have otherwise joined because they maybe heard things that they didn't understand.
5:00
So now when we say minus 104, minus 106, you come to the app, you get those things, you get great liquidity, you get instant bet acceptance, but there's so much more to just that.
5:10
So that's sort of the story behind the brand. All right. So Kelly and I are gonna ignore the fact that you said Bill Adee had a- I-... birthday party at the Legacy Club, 'cause we're a little offended.
5:19
Uh, we weren't, we have no idea that happened. Missed that invitation in the mail. Missed that one. [laughs] Wow. I, I, man, if he's watching this, he's gonna, like, call me out for it, but- [laughs]...
5:27
I, I actually wasn't even invited. Um, I think, like, Spanky or someone just told us to come sort of thing, and then I think I remember seeing Bill, his face when he saw us. He was like, "Ah, what are you doing here?"
5:38
[laughs] Sort of thing. Like, "Happy birthday, man." [laughs] So I, I wouldn't feel bad. I don't think I was invited either. Man, Spanky? Who, who else was there? What, what a, uh, A-list. Oh, yeah.
5:47
No wonder we weren't invited. We, we didn't get that invite. Uh, okay. So existing prices are great at SportTrade. We get that. Can you, um, but you can also place a bid to get an even better price though, right?
5:58
That is part of this. Yes, totally. So the pricing starts off as great, so if we look at- I don't know. Uh, let's look at the point spread for one of these games tonight. I'm gonna look at, uh, Knicks at Suns.
6:10
That should be a good game. Right now, the Suns plus five and a half is offered at minus 108, the Knicks minus five and a half is offered at minus 102. So there's your sort of 10 cent line.
6:19
Um, the limits on both of those things are at $5,000 each. So if you wanted to take Suns plus five and a half minus 108, 5,000, there you go. But, Sports Trade is an exchange, right?
6:29
So you can say, "I don't wanna pay minus 108, I wanna pay minus 106 for five grand," and now you're price improving the market.
6:37
And now it's very likely that if there wasn't someone interested in the Knicks, you know, on the other side of that bet, minus five and a half minus 102, you just improved that materially, and that's where the magic of the exchange happens.
6:50
If you start with great liquidity and great prices, now the more advanced players can be like, "Hmm, I wanna ask for a slightly better price."
6:57
And we're starting to see this, we're starting to see this at halftime of the Monday night game, halftime of the Sunday night game, just before sort of marquee games on Sunday night, Monday night, Thursday night.
7:07
And we actually have a Discord where we'll actually, if you do price improve the market and you put that bid out there, we're gonna broadcast it to all of our users in all of our states and say, "Hey, does anyone want the other side of this?"
7:18
So those are some of the advantages that you can get into that you will never get with a sports- Like you, can you imagine going to a sportsbook, walk up to the window and be like, "Nah, I'm not gonna pay minus 110.
7:27
I want plus 100." They would tell you to get lost. [laughs] With Sports Trade we say, "Great, come on in.
7:32
We think we can find somebody on the other side, and they're gonna get a better price, and you're gonna get a better price." Let's, let's try that after the show.
7:37
Let's walk up and see what they'll, what they'll say to us if we do that. "Hey, can I get a, uh, can I get minus 106 on this?" And then act- See what happens... acts like it's a garage sale and keep change.
7:44
"All right, I'll go up to minus 105." That's, that's our limit. "That's where I draw the line." [laughs] Um, the other thing that we sort of casually toss around, Alex, is, um, oh, you can trade in games.
7:55
And, you know, I think there's a lot of people who sort of throw it around and they're not exactly sure what that means, or at least new-ish bettors that listen to this show might not exactly know what that means.
8:04
Can you explain, uh, to us as, as if we're a two-year-old, as they said in the movie Philadelphia? Absolutely. Um, that's a great reference given where I'm standing right now. That's, uh, awesome.
8:15
Um, so I think since the last time I was on this show something huge has happened in the US. Everyone now, we were just talking about it off the air, everyone now is sort of kind of aware what Kalshi is.
8:26
In fact, I'm wearing their shirt. Everyone's sort of aware what Poly Market is. Those two are exchanges.
8:31
What makes them really unique, and Sports Trade has this as well, is it gives you the opportunity to view the prices as probability. When we talk about someone that's brand new listening to this show right now,
8:44
seeing minus 106, seeing plus 250, that might not be super clear to you. What Sports Trade allows you to do is it allows you to view the prices as probabilities alongside the American odds.
8:57
So let me give you another example. Let's go back to that same Suns, uh, Phoenix game and we're gonna look at the money line. Right now on the money line the S- the Phoenix Suns are offered at 35%.
9:07
We're just telling you 35% chance to win. We also tell you, like, "Hey, if you care about American odds and you wanna see what that is and you wanna shop on price, that's plus 182 odds."
9:17
Here's where the trading aspect comes in. If you're a newer sports bettor, or even if you're an advanced sports bettor, come to Sports Trade and put $1,000 on the Phoenix Suns at 35% odds.
9:27
That is not the same thing as betting at a sportsbook and waiting to the end, because every single second thereafter the prices are gonna change.
9:35
So if you put in and buy in at 35% odds, and then at halftime they're winning, they're beating the Knicks and maybe now they're 65% odds, you can cash out at that new probability. And so that's what we mean by trading.
9:48
And the most exciting thing about trading, particularly for folks that are newer to sports betting, you have the ability to sort of bypass American odds entirely if you want to and say, "You know what?
9:57
I never really understood what plus 182 means, but this makes so much more sense. I'll put $1,000 on the Suns money line at 35% chance to win.
10:06
They do good in the first half, they now have a 65% chance to win, and I'm gonna sell and my $1,000 is maybe worth 2,200 at that point. I put that back in my account and I move on with my day."
10:16
So that's what we mean by trading in sports. We now see Robinhood did this for the election, Kalshi made this very popular for the election, and now new event contracts.
10:25
Poly Market is something that, you know, I've heard mentioned on VSiN before it started to pick up more popularity, and what makes it so simple and easy for so many bettors is that the prices are just probabilities.
10:37
By the way, and forgive me that I- Okay... forgive me that I don't know the answer to this, did you guys get involved in the election, this past election, or no?
10:43
We would have loved to, um, but the, you know, it's under CFTC- Yeah... sort of rule. Yeah. So that's why it was literally you guys saw the, the Kalshi ads from New York to Orange County- Yes, we did... to Vegas.
10:55
Yeah, we sure did, all over the strip. All right, final question 'cause we gotta run here, Alex. Uh, you're live in New Jersey, Colorado, Iowa, Arizona, and Virginia. Is the plan to expand more?
11:06
Because I, I know how expensive it is from state to state, these licensing deals. Yep. We'd like to launch in another three, maybe four states next year. We haven't, can't announce anything just yet.
11:16
We're working those things, but listen, we wanna ch- take this version of sports betting mainstream. We wanna take it to more folks. And, uh, I'm just so happy that we're part- partnered with you guys.
11:27
This has been so legitimizing for our business. You know, sitting on the TV and watching this on YouTube TV and being able to see our promo code, our QR code, and trying it myself, like it's... Thank you.
11:37
Thank you guys so much. Thank you, Alex. We appreciate it, and, and we men- we went through a whole segment and until now without mentioning what a great head of, uh, red hair you have. Your sort of iconic- [laughs]...
11:47
thing that you have going for you. Thank you, Alex. Appreciate it, man. Good luck. Thank you, guys. Alex Kane, CEO of Sports Trade. Um, great guy. Oh, yeah. Super nice.
11:58
Was great on the panel that I, that I was pleased enough to do or was, was grateful to do on, uh, at Bet Bash- And-... with Billy Walters and Spanky. Yeah. And a great guy to having a birthday party obviously.
12:08
[laughs] And, and obviously we were not invited to a birthday party. Tim Murray's next. Some college football. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:22
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Oh, the VSiN Watch app. Look at it. Sexy, sleek, works so well, streamlined. Any other words I can come up with? Not right now.
12:34
Uh, makes it easy to watch, does the VSiN Watch app. Makes it easy to watch or listen to VSiN anywhere, any time on your phone or tablet. And for a limited time only, you can watch it for free.
12:42
Visit the Apple App or Google Play Store now to download the VSiN Watch app and get 24/7 access to our live audio and video stream, watch replays of your favorite VSiN shows, easily stream video to your smart TV, browse clips by sport, or use the search feature to find the specific VSiN expert insights you're interested in.
12:57
The VSiN Watch app, free to download for both Apple and Android users out now. [upbeat music] Kelly's giving me a hand signal. Um, before we get to Tim Murray, [laughs]
13:12
before we get to Tim Murray, can I just say, 'cause we just talked about how that Cincinnati-Dallas game can't be flexed out on Monday night. Did you hear the other big NFL sort of broadcast news? Yeah. Beyonce
13:24
doing halftime for one of the Christmas games. The Tex- Oh, is, is that why I was, I was, I was distracted by her yesterday in our post-show meeting? Oh, why, what do you mean? What did she do? I don't know.
13:34
She was, uh, uh, Beyonce was on. Oh, by the way, what is that commercial she does where she's in the laundromat? Sh- how is that commercial allowed? That is a distracting commercial. I'm okay with it.
13:42
Yeah, I'm okay, I'm okay with it too. I'm just saying, I have no idea how that's allowed. Anyway, Texans-Baltimore halftime, um, on Christmas Day. She is doing halftime of this.
13:52
Uh, Netflix announced on Sunday, "Your early Christmas wish has been granted," they say, uh, that's what a press release said, "as Beyonce will perform during Netflix's first ever NFL Christmas game day."
14:03
Um, Net- Netflix said details about her performance are under wraps, but teased that Bey, that's my word, is expected to feature some special guests who are featured on her recent Cowboy Carter album.
14:14
That'll be the third NFL halftime show for Beyonce, who previously performed at the Super Bowls in 2013 and 2016. She's doing it on, uh, on Christmas Day. Remember that Netflix, you were talking about this the other day.
14:25
Yeah. So we had the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson fight on Netflix and all the buffering issues.
14:29
Netflix is doing two, or excuse me, both of the NFL's Christmas Day games this year as part of their wider three-year deal with the league.
14:36
The Chiefs face the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first game at 1:00 Eastern, and then it's the Ravens-Texans game after that on Christmas Day, both on Netflix.
14:45
Okay, I'm, I'm, I'm rapidly Googling things 'cause I actually thought this is where you were going with the other NFL news story. Oh.
14:50
Because Netflix, uh, I think I caught after the fight, they had, they had sent a warning to the NFL about, hey, you, uh, or, or, or the NFL, sorry, had sent a warning to Netflix about- As they should...
15:01
you know, hey, get your stuff together. Um, and then I think I saw something come down this morning before the show of Netflix promises there's gonna be no issues. Okay. Which I don't really know- Oh, sure...
15:10
how they could promise something like that, but okay. Well, I think I speak for everybody, you better get it ready by halftime of game two. [laughs] Better get it together, 'cause that's, uh, yeah.
15:18
Man, that did not go well, Paul and Tyson, as we've discussed. No, not at all. Yeah. Uh, Tim Murray is here, ladies and gentlemen. You can follow him on Twitter @1TimMurray, uh, to talk college football with us.
15:29
We're always thrilled to have, uh, Tim with us, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
15:33
He's the host of the VSiN College Football Tailgate Show each and every Saturday, and of course, the VSiN College Football Betting Podcast, which grows and grows. How you doing, Tim? I'm great, Gil.
15:43
Uh, just trying to think about the last time our Washington football franchise was a double-digit favorite against the Cowboys. We, uh, we actually covered this on Monday. It is the fifth time, Tim.
15:56
I was, I was opening, I was wondering this openly. 1989, 1990, 1991, and 2000, the only other four times that we could come up with since the databases on, uh- Wow...
16:07
spreads existed where Washington is a double-digit favorite over the Dallas Cowboys. Soak in it. Enjoy. Love it. Love it. Yeah, man. Um, would you lay the points, though? Probably not.
16:19
[laughs] I, I don't think I am either. [laughs] I don't think I want any part of that. Um, okay. Uh, by the way, do you have an NFL play before we get to college football that you like better than, than that?
16:29
Um, I haven't gotten to the window on, uh, anything yet, but certainly the Chargers plus three in the Harbowl, uh, interests me there. Uh, older brother Jim getting the best of young- younger brother John, right?
16:42
He's older. Jim's older, right? Uh, John is older. I thought he was younger. Yeah, John is older. Yes. John is older. Okay. Yeah. So younger brother.
16:49
Um, I think Cleveland plus three and a half interests me a little bit on, uh, on Thursday. Um, so th- I would say those are early, uh, early on the chopping block there. Okay. Any reaction to, um,
17:01
college football brackets part three last night? Anything, uh, significant to you? Yeah, I think you could get a little, uh... There, I'll start with Georgia.
17:14
Um, uh, and, and no one's gonna be sorry for Georgia, but I don't understand what they're doing.
17:19
Um, look, Georgia's got wins over Texas on the road, who inexplicably still remains number three with zero wins over top 25 teams. Their best win is over, what, 6-4 Vanderbilt.
17:31
And Georgia went down and beat them by two touchdowns. Uh, yes, Georgia has losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, but they also have a win over number 11 Tennessee and have a win over number 17 Clemson.
17:44
So like I said, no one's gonna cry for Georgia. They're an absolute superpower, have been.
17:49
I'm not saying they're perfect this year, but I just, I don't fully know, you know, what the committee is, is, ki- how that's gonna play out.
17:57
And then secondly, Gil, I really believe it's setting up, like it or not, where if Indiana loses on Saturday and it's ugly, they're out. I, I think they're gonna drop like a rock.
18:09
And whether that's fair or not, I just look at the last two weeks. Georgia dropped nine spots losing to Ole Miss. BYU dropped eight spots losing to Kansas.
18:20
And to me, I think they're setting it up to potentially move Indiana down quite considerably if they were to lose... ugly to Ohio State. Whether that's right or wrong, that's just kinda my gut feel there.
18:33
And then lastly, I said it two weeks ago, this is shaping up to have Boise State get a bye. And what did we see last night?
18:40
Boise State had a bye, and I think Boise State really has an opportunity ahead of them, especially if Fresno State beats Colorado State on Saturday and they get a rematch against UNLV.
18:51
I think Boise State is in decent shape to get a bye, and then that number five seed, boy, you're talking about Ohio State's path right now, guys. Look at that.
19:00
Ohio State would play, in this current situation, would play against the Big 12 champion and then Boise State. Not too shabby to try to get to the semifinals. Yeah.
19:12
Boise State is poised to get a, uh, a bye it appears, and then the, the fifth conference, the fifth best conference champion, regardless of ranking, gets in the top 12, and that's where BYU- Right...
19:23
is currently at the very moment. I agree with what you're saying about Indiana.
19:26
It's why when, uh, Wes was on the other day, Wes Reynolds, I sorta said, "Are you braced for a, uh," you know, again, as you put it, Tim, whether it's right or wrong, "Are you braced for a shafting, uh, in, in this if, if Indiana loses big time?"
19:40
Uh, and I was mentioning earlier, Dr. Bob, who does, you know, who has models on all of these teams and is one of the great analysts of college football teams, he takes the opposite approach.
19:49
He believes that there is no way that Indiana should be knocked out of this regardless. Now, obviously, if it was a ridiculous blowout, maybe that's a different story.
19:57
But if it's, if it's your normal defeat, let's say, let's say it's a 10-point defeat, uh, that there's no way that they should be knocked out of it.
20:04
And his, his sort of thinking is because even though their competition is lesser, they are beating that competition by a margin that exceeds what a normal l- w- what a, you know, a, a very good team would do.
20:18
He, and he used an analogy, if the Yankees were playing Triple-A baseball teams and they were crushing them, would you think they're a lesser football team? So he was getting into it with folks on Twitter.
20:27
So it's gonna be fascinating, no question about it. Um, what did you end up with this weekend in terms of bets? Yeah, so I've got a couple, uh, in the hopper. I mentioned one already. Uh, I really like Fresno State.
20:37
They're the late night game. Uh, I think Colorado State, uh, is a bit of a paper tiger. They're undefeated in Mountain West play, uh, but I think this is the spot where rubber meets the road.
20:47
Uh, I laid a short money line price. If you wanna lay the three, I'm not opposed to that either.
20:52
Uh, I, I just think this is a spot where Fresno State, you know, interim head coach, I think they take care of business here. Uh, so I, I laid three. I laid, you know, the money line.
21:01
I think the official play I put into the, uh, the picks page was, was money line, uh, on this particular game.
21:07
Couple other ones that are interesting, and I'll give you more sexy match-ups as opposed to one of the more kind of obscure ones that I bet on. Um, you know, look, if we get back to three, I'll be in on Kansas again.
21:20
I was on Kansas last week, uh, against BYU. Um, you know, I was not overly impressed by Kansas, though, on Saturday night at BYU. And remember, this is a neutral site game. This isn't a true home game.
21:32
This is at Arrowhead. This isn't in Lawrence. Uh, just remembering if you're, you know, handicapping, uh, this particular game. So that was one that I'm, I'm waiting to see if I get the three.
21:43
I was able to grab a three early, so certainly wouldn't recommend it right now at the current price. Uh, I think Nebraska takes care of Wisconsin, uh, on, uh, on Saturday. I think that's, you know, it's a crazy stat.
21:54
How about this, Gil? Nebraska, who hasn't been to a bowl since 2016- Man... has lost eight straight games when trying to obtain [laughs] that sixth win. [laughs] Oh, man.
22:06
Um, so it's, uh, it's been pretty brutal for, uh, for the Badgers, uh, for the Cornhuskers, excuse me. Uh, and then lastly, I'll give you a w- a w- a wild one as we, uh, as we bid farewell.
22:16
Uh, Syracuse went out to Cal, won as a double-digit dog last week. Next week, Gil, in the Carrier Dome, or whatever they call their stadium these days- [laughs]... they get to not try to knock off Miami.
22:30
This week, they've gotta welcome in UConn, and it ain't a basketball game. It's a football game. UConn coming off a bye. Jim Mora Jr., I think, is a very good coach, at least in the collegiate ranks.
22:42
Give me the 10 and a half with UConn against Syracuse in a sleepy sandwich spot there up in, uh, upstate New York. Tim Murray, everybody. Carrier Dome. I believe it's still called the Carrier Dome, isn't it?
22:54
Giving me visions- It's got some other news. I don't know Yeah. Giving me visions of Pearl Washington and Eric Sanifer. Appreciate that. Thank you, Tim. I appreciate it very much, man. Of course, Gil. See you, man.
23:04
Tim Murray, everybody, once again, uh, host of VSiN College Football Tailgate Show, and of course, College Football Betting Podcast as well. Jason Weingarten on Major League Baseball Awards next.
23:14
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Looking for some action? Our friends at First Bet have you covered.
23:22
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23:33
Use promo code VSIN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200. Head to firstbet.com today. You know what JasonH11, uh, tweeted in, Kelly?
23:46
He said, uh, "Would you guys be interested in seeing some pictures I took at Bill 80's birthday party?" [laughs] Wait a minute. What? Grateful Lead, "I'm in a survivor down to two. He can take Kansas City.
23:59
I have Pitt, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Philly, and Baltimore available. Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Philly, and Baltimore available. Who to take in this tough week?
24:08
Does game theory suggest I should take Baltimore and hedge with the Chargers plus three?" Grateful Lead, I, uh, I will not dispense this information to you because, uh, I don't wanna be responsible if you lose.
24:20
Ah, it also goes back to what- Yeah... holiday questions, right? How do, how does your pool work around the holidays? Yeah. 'Cause isn't Baltimore... Are they on both or just one of them?
24:28
Well, they're involved in one of them. James Sott, "My early Christmas wish is for Netflix to not be buffering all game long and miss her concert." Yeah, man. Yeah. Samuel Stackis, "Hey, Gill, still alive in survivor."
24:38
Oh my God, with the survivor. "Big names I have left are Philly, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh. You've never been more wrong." You're correct. "Thinking about Houston, Tampa Bay, or Minnesota this week.
24:47
Mind giving a quick thought on survivor?" Uh, listen, I'm not the guy because I'm not in it. Uh, but good on you for still being in this. Um, I think Pittsburgh is... Y- you know how I feel.
24:57
I've never been more wrong, right? I think it's dicey. I think they probably win. I think Cleveland is way too trendy a pick this week. Um- Yeah, me too. Me too. Yeah...
25:05
but, but I wouldn't go cr- I, I wouldn't, like, leap to play them in survivor if you've gotten this far. Um, and again, it just gets, as Kelly was saying, it gets back to what are your rules?
25:13
I- if there is no Christmas or Thanksgiving stuff and Kansas City's available, I think you probably use Kansas City, but I don't know what he, the other person has left, or the people have left, so.
25:21
I, the one I b- I'm get- I'm guessing you and I differ on, the Bucs would scare me this week as well. I, I just, uh, with- w- without those wide receivers, I t- I, it, it's hard to trust that team. Yeah.
25:32
Uh, a bunch of people, Nick Coll, Jason Stark, Fred Courier, Norman Vegas, they're all telling me the Carrier Dome is now called the JMA Wireless Dome. My apologies that I was unaware of JMA Wireless.
25:41
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. We had, we had Carrier Dome up on the screen, so. Let's- That's obviously why Gill screwed up, okay? Let's switch that to JMA Wireless.
25:48
[laughs] Carrier Dome is like you could just hear, uh, Marv Albert being like, "Rebound, Schaffer." Yeah, that, uh, it's kinda depressing actually, that- Yeah... name change.
25:57
Syracuse basketball, so great back in the day. Okay, let's talk, uh, with Jason Weingarten, everybody. You can follow him on Twitter at Spreadapedia.
26:05
Comes to us courtesy of the Progressive guest line under a cloud of smoke somewhere in Southern Cali. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. Yeah.
26:13
Your th- your thoughts on Luis Hill of the Yankees and Paul Skeens of the Pirates winning the American League and National League Rookie of the Year awards respectively, sir. Little surprised that two pitchers won.
26:27
Uh, you know, Skeens obviously got me there. It wasn't, wasn't close in the voting.
26:31
Uh, I don't know, I see, uh, Dan Szymborski at, uh, at FanGraphs wrote his explanation for why he voted for Merrill, and thought it was reasonable, but the voters didn't see it that way.
26:43
So, um, you know, it is what it is. You take a loss every once in a while. You know, I, I kinda look and think I got lucky maybe earlier this year. I got that Nas Reed Most Improved Player, was it sixth man? Sixth man.
26:56
By like one, one vote. So losing here, it wasn't close. You know, I'll move on. It's, uh, it's unfortunate, but Skeens, Skeens was great. Um, not much, much else to say there.
27:08
Gill, or Hill, I think, uh, I think Colton Cowser has more to be upset about in not losing and how he was inexplicably left off two ballots is kinda weird to me.
27:19
Uh, the guy who voted for Mason Miller, the guy who put Cade Smith first, um, you know, I'm a little disappointed in those voters.
27:27
But overall, uh, you know, I'm really optimistic that Chris Sale isn't gonna, gonna get screwed tonight, and still gonna be a profitable future season this year.
27:37
And overall, I gotta say, um, year over year, I'm happy with my performance this year just in the sense that I made a lot of my bets early, I stuck to them, I didn't add any crazy positions and blow money later on.
27:51
Um, but yeah, I would've, would've liked to have got that Merrill one. It would've, would've been a nice one to get.
27:55
Yeah, we didn't mention, I, I, I alluded to this when, when we talked about the results the other day, but I didn't mention the Mason Miller and Cade Smith part. So Luis Hill ended up with 106 points.
28:04
Colton Cowser of the O's ended up with 101. They had 15 and 13 first place votes respectively.
28:10
Austin Wells, who was part of that trio that we thought was in this the whole way through, at least the betting market did, ended up with only 17 points, so 106, 101 to 17, and had zero first place votes.
28:25
Remember, it was 15, 13 Hill to Cowser. Mason Miller got a first place vote and Cade Smith got a first place vote. Mason Miller finished with 16 points, one point behind Austin Wells overall. Cade Smith finished with 12.
28:39
Um, a couple follow-up questions, then we'll get to your, uh, your awards thoughts, uh, that you're m- that you've made bets on here. One,
28:46
do you believe that MLB Network got the memo that they were telegraphing the pass on these awards, and that they picked Cal Ripken, a Baltimore Oriole of course famously for his entire career, to throw people off the scent?
29:01
In other words, to move the pendulum completely to the other side, and people are gonna think, "Oh, well it's definitely Colton Cowser who's about to win this."
29:08
And you even made the case that day, "Hey, Jackson Merrill was born in Baltimore. It's clearly gonna be those two guys." Do you think MLB Network did that on purpose?
29:17
I'd really like to know more about what went into that decision to pick Cal Ripken, because, you know, like we're, we're a week away from Thanksgiving.
29:25
I'm, I'm trying to order pies for Thanksgiving today, and we're, we're giving these awards out for baseball. No one cares about it at these, at this point. And what are we doing with Cal Ripken here?
29:35
I mean, yeah, I thought, I thought more so, uh, Colton Cowser was gonna win when they had Cal Ripken, but what is even the point of all of this, I wanna tell MLB.
29:43
And this all goes back to the point, I've said this multiple times this season, there's not been a new MLB fan created by any of these things that Major League Baseball does. Mm-hmm. You're right. You're right.
29:53
If Vixen, if Vixen cut baseball content to 1%, it wouldn't change anything. Baseball's just like horse racing. It has its diehards, it has its bettors.
30:03
But, like, i- if, if it wants to evolve, it needs to, to completely change how it does things, 'cause this is just stupid. You know?
30:11
I don't care if I win or lose, it's just this is almost Thanksgiving and we're talking about who's gonna win the MVP that we've known for two months.
30:17
Like- [laughs] I love, I love the Jason, the Jason pivot to, "This is stupid that we're even talking about it," which means I have one last question.
30:22
[laughs] Do you think Str- do you think Spencer Strider not winning had some effect on him going pitchers this time? Maybe. I mean, they gotta, you gotta win sometime, right?
30:31
I mean, pitchers have to win sometime or we're basically saying that they're completely irrelevant. And again, Paul Skeens, he, he pitched well. I'm not arguing that he didn't come up and play great.
30:40
It's just- He was spectacular. Come on, man... he was spectacular. Yeah. Just was on a last place team and none of the games mattered, but Yeah, it is what it is. I'm not, not upset about it. You gotta move on.
30:48
If, you know, it's something Bob, Dr. Bob said once, if you're upset you're losing these bets in the futures, whatever, you're betting too much money on them. Mm-hmm.
30:55
You know, there's more games today, there's a hundred more things to win money on and, you know? Okay. All right. I'm bet. We'll move on, Jason. [laughs] Um- I, I have a question. Oh.
31:04
[laughs] I have a question to move on to. Just keep going on, you know? No, no, no, no, no. I have a question. That's great, Jason. We have one more question. We're moving on. Yeah.
31:09
I, I, I believe, uh, other people probably had this, uh, bell ring in their ears too, when Jason brought up, where, where are we ordering pies from? Where, where, is there a go-to pie spot we're ordering from this year?
31:19
Porto's. Um, usually it's either Porto's or, uh, what's, uh, the, the pie, pie, what's the pie place? Pi- the Pie 'N Burger. [laughs] P- Pie N- Pie 'N Burger- Okay... in Pasadena.
31:29
But, but usually there's a line out the door. Um, it's like two hours to get a pie there, so I'm ordering from Porto's ahead of time this year. All right.
31:36
Well, Jason, you, you have to understand, you can't make a passion plea for Jackson Merrell 500 times and then say, "No one cares about this stuff anymore." I get your point that you, uh, you wanna move on from it.
31:45
So let's, let's get to football. What are- No, I just wish they'd do it earlier. Oh, we all do. You know, we could, we could have this by- We all do. Of course we do. Yeah. Yeah, it's ridiculous that it's this late.
31:53
Um, okay, football, what have you bet now? Awards mark. All right. So, uh, one of the games I'm interested in this weekend, moving, moving on to the football, is the UCLA-U- USC game.
32:04
Uh, I don't know if you saw the news yesterday, Lincoln Riley was giving an interview at, uh, at USC practice.
32:09
He was talking about there's, there's a little bit of a, a flu bug or something going around the, the USC team right now. It looks like he's got it, a lot of the players have it.
32:17
If you didn't notice, my voice is a little messed up. I am going through whatever's been, been hitting LA this last week.
32:23
So if, uh, if USC has what I have, uh, I'm, I'm a little concerned that they're, they're just not gonna be ready to play this weekend.
32:32
Uh, they said, you know, Lincoln Riley said they're, they're about a day out from recovering from the peak of this. Um, I don't know, I'm not an athlete, but, but I've, took me about a week to, to get over this.
32:42
So I'm a little concerned for SC this weekend, especially none of these guys can breathe out of their nose like me. Good, good luck, uh- [laughs]... playing football.
32:50
Jason is afflicted with [laughs] some horrible malady. I hope you feel better, Jason. My God. I'm fine. Okay. You know, it's- All right... and every year, end of baseball season, it's, always get, catches up.
33:01
Um, so that's your one play. What is, repeat what it is again. You're fading USC. Uh, UCLA, UCLA plus four and a half, then I'm looking at a couple things on, uh, on Sunday.
33:10
Uh, Cowboys, I think you, you could probably fade the Cowboys here. They're just, they're, they're entering loser mode the rest of the season. Um, and then you s- you said Kelly said he didn't wanna bet the Bucs.
33:21
I actually like the Bucs here this weekend. I think it's pretty clear the Giants are embracing the tank. Uh, you know, they're going straight to DeVito.
33:28
That's, that's signaling to me they're not attempting to win the rest of the season. So I'll actually, I'll be looking at the Bucs on Sunday. That, that looks like a, a nice play to me. Was gonna follow up on that.
33:38
Just, uh, saw on my phone, Mike Evans, uh, at practice today. Mike Evans at practice. So that helps too. Mike Evans at practice.
33:43
Clarify as we go out, what is your college football play again, Jason, just so I understand? UCLA plus four and a half with Rose Bowl on Sunday. Saturday. Okay. [upbeat music] Thank you, Jason, appreciate it.
33:56
See you later. Have a good week. Jason Weingarten, everybody. We'll come back, um, we'll wrap things up. It's the Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:02
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:18
Coming up at the top of the hour, Money Moves with Stormy Bonatony.
34:22
She's got Patrick Maher on with her today from noon to 2:00 Eastern, followed by Prop Points, John Hanson from 2:00 to 3:00, Make It Rain with Adam Schein from 3:00 to 4:00, coming up on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:35
Soup to nuts, Kelly. Soup to nuts. Soup to nuts. Show's loaded tomorrow. Soup to nuts. Show's, [laughs] show's loaded tomorrow. Soup to nuts. Uh, Kelly and I were wondering, uh, where the heck that expression came from.
34:45
What does it even mean? I have your answer. You ready? Oh, yeah, let's go.
34:49
Traditional American and British dinners where soup was usually the first course, and nuts, well, they were the grand finale, apparently back in the day. Oh, my, this is like Matt Brown's Halloween candy list. It's nuts.
35:00
Like, what, we had, we had nuts for dessert back in the day? Man. Here's a delicious peanut for you. Can I offer you some nuts for dessert? And then the, uh, the other one that got brought up.
35:11
[laughs] I, I, we were talking about, the, me and the crew before the show, the, uh, 10-foot pole, and then Matt Cox, I believe, dropped it on the air today. Like, I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole. Yes.
35:19
I'm like, "Where does that one come from?" Where, where does it come from? And as Brendan looked it up, I think it had- Yeah... has something to do with boats getting too close to the dock or something.
35:26
Oh, that makes sense. You gotta shove them away, yeah. That makes, that makes no sense whatsoever, but sure. Uh-huh. Uh, which brings us to our, uh, G Bank, best bets of the day. G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
35:37
Uh, I have the, uh, one bet so far in the NFL. The NFL bets getting a little more scarce here- Yeah, last two weeks... last couple weeks. Yeah. Ravens mine is two and a half, I bought it down to two and a half.
35:47
Uh, and then Norm Powell, as I talked about, uh, today, at 18 to 1 to win Most Improved Player, and that was one of those things again where I went in, I wanted to bet a certain amount of money.
35:55
They're like, "Sorry, we can only give you half." Then I did that, and I waited another two hours and they took it. [laughs] It's just so stupid. The, uh- Yeah...
36:03
I've decided, I mean, w- don't, don't get me wrong, it is the most, i- it is the award that I talk the most about every year, Most Improved Player.
36:12
Uh, uh, texting JVT during a break, uh, pretty sure we could, at this point this season, we could have already done, like, an hour plus long podcast each week just on Most Improved Player.
36:22
We've talked at least about a dozen guys. Yeah. What you got here? Uh, for me, yeah, two NFL ones from yesterday. Lions, Niners teaser. Niners not looking as great. You concerned about Brock Purdy at all?
36:31
That's a- Yeah, like, on the injury report. I, I'm, I'm concerned about that team period. Yeah. Yeah, that's a big game. A- and man, Niners just constantly dealing with these injuries.
36:40
Eagles, uh, that is from the lookahead, although we're down to two and a half now, I still, I like it still. Uh, Eagles two and a half, uh, against the Rams. And then one NBA bet for me tonight, Warriors.
36:51
JVT said he was gonna approach this one live, which completely understand. I'm actually a little surprised this number's going against me right now.
36:57
Warriors flat eight, uh, basically everywhere right now welcoming in, welcoming in a Atlanta team that has been on the road, a little extra rest for the Warriors. Steph going tonight. Um, like Golden State. Warriors.
37:10
Yeah. Dub show. I like it. Mm. Okay. Uh, we also had Matty Cox on here. He's on Merrimack plus 12 first half bet versus, uh, Sunge, copyright Chris Felica, the State University of New Jersey, that's Rutgers.
37:22
So he's got Merrimack plus 12 first half versus Rutgers. He's also got the Spar- and San Jose State plus 11 first half versus USC. How well does Kelly know college basketball betting?
37:33
It only took me an entire break and a half to find those numbers and punch them in. Is that why we lost you there for a while? I was curious. Maybe. [laughs] I was like, "What happened to Kelly?"
37:41
Uh, JBT was on, Jonathan Von Tilby. He's got the Magic and the Clippers under 207 tonight in the association. And then, uh, in college football he's got Air Force plus three and a half versus Nevada.
37:51
And then in the NFL, he is very pumped about his Colts catching seven and a hook versus the Lions. Tim Murray was on as well.
37:58
For his college football, he's on Fresno State laying the three versus Colorado State, and he's taking Yukon plus 10 and a half, uh, at the JMA Wireless Dome at Syracuse. I'm, yeah, I'm never calling it that.
38:11
Yeah, I'm not either after that.
38:13
Uh, and then, uh, Jason Weingart was here, and I asked him not once, not twice, but three times to clarify [laughs] his bet in the Rose Bowl this weekend, just 'cause I wanted to make sure I was, uh, hearing that he was going with his if they're as sick as me handicap, and he is.
38:27
He's, uh, he's fading USC. He's fading Lincoln Riley. He's taking, uh, US, he's taking UC- UCLA, yep... he's taking UCLA against USC at the Rose Bowl this weekend.
38:37
And then two he liked in the NFL, Bu- Bucs and Commanders. Bucs and Commanders- Yep... he liked as well, that's right. Fading the Cowboys, laying the wood 10 and a half against the Cowboys.
38:47
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38:50
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39:01
That's V-S-I-N.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Uh, before we got off air yesterday, Kelly, not before we got off air, but right after we get off air, everything happens.
39:12
By the way, Ron Flatter, the great Ron Flatter taught me this back when he was the adult supervision here at VSiN back in the day. [laughs] Um, we needed adult supervision, and Ron was our guy.
39:21
And he used to say to me, he goes- I don't know if we needed it, but Ron took that, he took that role very seriously. We, we, we did need it, and we loved, and we love Flatter.
39:29
But Flatter taught me, he's like, "Listen, there's a reason. You know how you say every time the news breaks right after your show, Gil?" He says in that Les Nessman voice. Mm-hmm. I said, "Why is that, Ron?"
39:37
He goes, "Because the news cycle begins at noon Eastern." And so right after the show yesterday, Joe Douglas fired. We literally walked out, we look up at the screen, Joe Douglas fired- Yep...
39:45
as the GM of the New York Jets. Um- That's, we, we actually had a great conversation about it [laughs] out there. We did. We did, because- Would've been great on air...
39:53
the, the instant reaction, right, seeing it on the screen for me was, "Oh, again," and I think probably everybody had the same reaction, is somebody getting blamed for some stuff that ain't their fault, generally speaking.
40:04
Mm-hmm. Now, if you say, "Oh, well, he's the reason that Aaron Rodgers ended up there," um, well, they drafted well, right?
40:10
The Breece Halls and the Garrett Wilsons of the world, um, you know, no one's, no one is, uh, you know, people have been fired for way less than that kind of perform- I mean, for way less than that kind of performance.
40:22
But Aaron Rodgers is the reason for all of this turmoil.
40:26
And Woody Johnson, like it was, Ken Beatrice was a, uh, sports talk radio host in Washington, DC when I was a kid on WMAL, and Ken Beatrice used to say, "Every good and bad organization begins at the top."
40:38
Uh, and that, by the way, applies to beyond sports franchises. Um, but what he used to say is the reason, you know, the reason the Skins were so good back then is Jack Kent Cook was their, was their owner.
40:47
The reason other teams aren't is because of who their owners are. Daniel Snyder for all, for a quarter of a century, that's the reason why Washington as a franchise sucked, because he was at the top.
40:57
Woody Johnson, not exactly running a tight ship over there in terms of, um, doling out blame left and right, and none of it apparently is his own fault. But he's the re- listen, ultimately it stops with him. Yep.
41:10
And the reason Aaron Rodgers is on that football team, and, um, the reason that the Jets are having all this problem is because then they kowtowed, right, to every whim of Aaron Rodgers. "I want all my guys."
41:22
Um, you know, bring in Lazard, bring in whomever.
41:25
You know, it's like, and so you have this albatross who unfortunately, I get it, four plays into the season last year ruptured his Achilles tendon, but again, he was at the time
41:36
39 years old, and now he's about, he's about to be 41. He is a shell of his former self. We saw shades of this in his last year at Green Bay. This was in many ways very predictable, um, for a guy like Aaron Rodgers.
41:50
I thought the rest of the team was far better, quite frankly. I thought the defense was gonna be great. Yeah, me too. It wasn't. Yeah. Um, so I raise my hand on that.
41:57
But that was the big sort of NFL transactional news yesterday, and the Jets who fired Saleh just was the last month, now after, after five games, after they were two and three, they fired Saleh.
42:08
Now they fire their GM, and, uh, team turmoil. I wanna use the phrase team turmoil, but that could apply to the Cowboys. That could apply to any number of teams.
42:17
Uh, the Bears with, uh, DJ Moore running off the field before last week's performance were a candidate as well.
42:22
So listen, I don't think the Jets are gonna, going back to our discussion earlier about w- fewest wins, I don't think it will be the Jets in the end.
42:30
Um, they are one of the candidates of course, because they're three and eight. Um, but the Jets still have, uh, Seattle, at Miami, at Jacksonville, Rams, at Buffalo, Miami at home.
42:42
So I think they probably win a game along the way. Four wins is gonna be too many to end up with fewest wins.
42:48
But what we do have in the NFL, when we were going through that category, I listed 10 teams that are still probably in the mix for the worst record. Mm-hmm. The bottom of this league has never been worse. Yeah.
43:02
And it's the, I used to say this about baseball, the chasm between the haves and the have-nots, it's getting wider and wider. The, the top of the NF- that might not apply to the NFL, because the top isn't quite as top.
43:12
But the bottom, oh man, sinking and sinking fast, and the Jets are right amongst that group. Yeah, and the only thing I'll add is the, uh, and all of that well said, that we can talk about fewest wins and everything.
43:24
You're right, Jets probably aren't gonna get there. By far the biggest train wreck in the NFL this year, though, I, in my opinion. I don't know. I don't know if by far. I mean, the Cowboys are up there too, right?
43:32
Oh, I, I think it's by far. You know the way I look at... Adam Chernoff said this like a- Based on, based on expectation, I think I would agree with you.
43:38
Yeah, I think Adam Chernoff said this on his pod about a month ago. I think he's, I think he put it absolutely perfectly, 'cause it's the way I've started to think about the Cowboys.
43:46
I am far more impressed now looking back at what they were able to do a year ago and what they finished with, with the talent on this roster, 'cause you see a couple of these guys go out, it's just not that good of a football team.
43:59
We've built it up for way too long that this Cowboys team is all that good. It's just, it's a few star s- uh, pieces, and they're lacking a whole lot else.
44:07
And I, w- the Jets thing is just, it, it's something we've almost never seen before it feels like. Every good and bad organization starts at the top.
44:14
Never, uh, never been a wiser word spoken about businesses, and, uh, I think it applies to all these teams. It applies to the Cowboys too, right? Until, I mean, this is the most obvious NFL thing.
44:24
Until there's a day where he'd be willing to relinquish GM duties- Yep... by the way, this just in, that day is never coming. Yep. The Cowboys have no chance. They have no chance. I agree. Agree. Um, yeah.
44:37
I know what it's like to have a, to have that as a life sentence, by the way.
44:42
Um, a miracle happened in Washington, so that life sentence doesn't exist, but yeah, that's a truism not only in football, but in all kinds of industries. Uh, we've done all we can do.
44:51
Money Moves with Stormy and Patrick Maher is next. Enjoy from VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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