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Nov 22, 2024
A Numbers Game | November 22, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | November 22, 2024 | Hour 1
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0:00
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0:27
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:37
This is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com Game, plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. How are you taking us in? We appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. My little buddy Kelly Bidlin on assignment today.
0:48
That's what we do. You know all those, uh, Numbers Game investigations we talk about? That's what he's doing. He's doing one of those today, so I'm sure he'll come back with some, uh, some great findings.
0:55
Uh, Kelly will be back on Monday. We got a football Friday in front of us. Uh, that includes, of course, the second hour, which is the Felika Fezzik Dr. Bob Trinity. That's coming up on the show.
1:07
We'll talk college football, pro football, college football, in that order, with Felika Fezzik and Dr. Bob. This hour, uh, Paul Carr on the Premier League. Jason Weingarten will, uh, stop by from under a cloud of smoke.
1:19
Uh, we'll do that as well. We'll have our Larsen a smooth bet of the week. Uh, we'll do that. We'll review all of our bets in the National Football League.
1:27
We must begin, though, with that game last night, meshugganah, between the Steelers and the Browns, and if you will indulge me, we have to go full autopsy on this because this game deserves that kind of treatment.
1:39
I don't think you-- I don't think there's any way to go through it without doing it that way. The Browns win it. Uh, Cleveland Browns twenty-four, Steelers nineteen.
1:47
Browns not only cover as three-and-a-half-point dogs, but they win on the money line. The game somehow goes over, which was just unbelievable.
1:55
I, uh, ended up, if you listened to the Megapod yesterday, the Beating the Book Megapod, Aaron Schatz was, uh, Todd Wishnev, Will Hill, and myself, uh, he was our guest yesterday. I double-dipped here.
2:05
I had Cleveland plus the points that got there, but I went under, under thirty-seven, and that un- unbelievably did not get there.
2:12
Twenty-four to nineteen, Mike Tomlin's streak of seasons without a losing season, uh, must wait at least another week, uh, probably more accurately, at least just a couple, uh, say, seventeen days till they get Cleveland again, let's say.
2:27
Uh, but this game started out, it, there's so many little nuanced things. I'm not sure I understood what I was watching half the time. I certainly didn't understand what Mike Tomlin was doing part of the time.
2:36
But it started out really weird. By the way, the first half, completely clean, right, in terms of the weather. It was just, you know, your normal pristine football game. Um, it was a terrible kickoff to start the game.
2:48
Cordarrelle Patterson bailed out the Browns by picking up the ball before it went out of bounds.
2:54
Um, and then, uh, after a Garrett sack, the first of his, uh, of his three in that first half and of the game, Boswell was forced to a fifty-eight-yard field goal. He missed that fifty-eight-yard field goal try.
3:05
Uh, no good. Cleveland then, after a three and out, then back to the kicking game, this time a punt, which went awry. Corey, uh, Bojorquez, Bohorquez twelve-yard punt.
3:15
That was bailed out, uh, by an unnecessary roughness call on the Steelers, uh, pushing a diff- pushing a guy out of bounds or still defending the guy out of bounds.
3:25
That is two kicks, so a kickoff and a punt in which Cleveland botched both of the kicks, but got bailed out of both of them. So it was sort of a portent of things to come, like, okay, this could be the Browns' night.
3:36
Pittsburgh ends up with a, uh, fourth and two on the ensuing drive at the Cleveland thirty-eight. Fields loses two yards, and it was a scoreless first quarter, and the under looked pretty cool.
3:45
Three to nothing, uh, Steelers at this point. Later in the second quarter, the Browns muffed a kickoff return at the one and were granted a touchback.
3:55
So this was the first thing that I was watching where I was like, "Is that the rule? I thought if the ball was touched in the field of play and somehow it kicks back, it's still a live ball."
4:05
No, they gave the Browns a touchback. That was the first odd refereeing thing of the night where I'm like, "I don't think I was aware of that."
4:12
Uh, fourth and one at the Pittsburgh fourteen on this drive that they were granted a touchback on. Chubb gets five. Two plays later, Chubb in from one.
4:20
Seven to three, Cleveland, with four minutes left in the second quarter. James was six of six for fifty on that drive.
4:26
And by the way, that's how the, uh, or the half would end, ten to three in favor of the Browns as the half ended on Garrett's, uh, third sack.
4:33
To the second half, ten to three, Browns, and this is where [chuckles] it just got, first of all, the weather just turned, and it beca- it started with, uh, visible snow, and by the end of this quarter, it was a full-on whiteout.
4:47
It was, it was unbelievable to watch.
4:49
By the way, if you grew up in, uh, in inclement weather or snowy areas of this country or areas of the country that could get snow in the wintertime, there was nothing more fun than playing football in the snow as a kid, tackle football in the snow, and the second most fun thing was watching football, either at the college or pro level in the snow, and this qualified for that.
5:08
So ten to three, uh, the Brownies heading into the third quarter. Pittsburgh third and ten at their own thirty-four. Wilson to Jefferson for thirty-five.
5:16
Three plays later in a whiteout, third and inches, Najee stuff for no gain.
5:19
Fourth and one, Tomlin acts like he's gonna kick a field goal down ten to three, and you're screaming at the TV like, "What are you thinking trying to kick this field goal in this weather?" He changes his mind.
5:30
Wilson to Freiermuth for nine. Still have to settle for a field goal after a snap almost sails over Wilson's head on a, on the subsequent second down. Boswell gets a twenty-eight-yard field goal in the snow.
5:38
Ten to six, Cleveland, with under two minutes left in the third quarter. Now, the Amazon broadcast decides to put in the virtual lines. How do we feel about this? Uh, I, uh, I'm of two minds.
5:50
One, I appreciate the help, uh, in terms of navigating the, uh, the, the yard markers and all of that and the goal line and everything that is involved in a football grid.
5:59
But part of me just wants to experience like the fans at the game do and have no idea what's happening whatsoever. But they decided to go with the, uh, with the virtual lines. Um, third and goal now.
6:11
Cleveland is up ten-six. Third and goal at the two. Uh, N- Njoku drops a pass, wide open pass in the end zone, wide open. Stefanski decides, "We're up four. We're gonna go for it here."
6:23
This is in the fourth quarter now, e- early fourth quarter. "We're gonna go for it." Winston barely avoids a sack. T.J. Watt is just doing his own thing, not trying to contain at all. He's running up the field.
6:33
Uh, Winston avoids it, gets in, 65-yard, 10-play drive. On the conversion, his communication device battery is dangling from his helmet after the tackle on the touchdown, uh, in his line of vision.
6:45
He's still able to, uh, overcome that, Njoku this time with an amazing catch in the end zone. So it's 18 to six Browns, 12:16 left in this game, and you're thinking, "Okay. Well, Browns, easy-peasy, no problem.
6:58
Under, probably no problem." Uh, yeah, none of that. None of that. Pittsburgh, seven-play, 69-yard drive. Four-19 is all it took.
7:06
Fields for 30, the big chunk, as our, our Justin Fields, uh, prediction yesterday came through with him getting a lot of run yesterday. Warren in from three. 18 to 12 Cleveland with 7:57 left in the fourth quarter.
7:17
Then Cleveland second and nine at their own 25. Winston sacked by Nick Herbig, fumbles. Deshaun Elliott recovers, and you're like, "Oh my God, Mike Tomlin, magic beans are happening again."
7:27
This is the luckiest team in, in professional football. Pittsburgh set up at Cleveland 27. Third play, Wilson to Austin from 23 out. 19-18 Steelers. Somehow they're leading this football game. Two-point try fails.
7:40
6:09 left. Pittsburgh up a point. Cleveland second and 12 at their own 36. Amazing pass from Jameis to Judy for 26, but three plays later, Winston overthrows the intended receiver, picked by Donte Jackson.
7:51
That is Jameis Winston's career in a nutshell. Great play followed very quickly by an awful play. And with 4:22 left, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the ball up one, but it's a three and out.
8:04
Third and four at their own 30. Fields incomplete deep for Pickens. Okay. Why are we putting in Fields to throw the ball deep? That's another one where you're like, "What are you doing, Tomlin?
8:13
What's hap- what's, what's, what are the Steelers doing as a, as a group here?" Uh, Corliss Waitman then punts it 15 yards for the Steelers.
8:22
So Cleveland now, it turns to Cleveland, advantage Cleveland, even though they're down a point on the scoreboard. With two timeouts left in the two-minute warning, they're set up at the Pittsburgh 45.
8:31
Jordan Akins drops a wide open second down pass where he had a prairie in front of him, uh, where he would've had a huge gain. Instead it gets to fourth and fourth at the Pittsburgh 38. Jameis to Judy for five.
8:43
Here is where the game truly goes just completely wacko. Three plays later... Follow me here. Help me out. I'm gonna try to help you out. You try to help me out. Three plays later, third and two at the Pittsburgh 24.
8:55
Again, it's 19-18 Steelers. Browns with the ball. They don't run. They decide to pass on third and two at the Pittsburgh 24 in the snow, and Jameis completely intentionally grounds the ball.
9:07
But, uh, number 55, one of Cleveland's offensive linemen, Ethan Pocic, tries catching it.
9:13
So instead of the intentional grounding and the loss of down, 15 yards the loss of down, it's a five-yard penalty w- without the loss of down.
9:20
So apparently an offensive lineman can completely bail you out of an intentional grounding by lunging for the ball? Offensive linemen, apparently you should do that every game.
9:29
I had no idea that was a, a thing, where you can downgrade from intentional grounding to illegal touching. Uh, illegal touching of the football.
9:37
So Tomlin decides at first to decline the penalty, then he changes his mind and he accepts it. That's another thing that I'm not quite sure I knew was possible. Wait a minute, I thought he declined it already.
9:49
Now you're allowing him to accept it. So he accepts it. Um, he calls timeout then for no reason, his second timeout for no reason. Wasted a timeout. Um, third and seven now after that whole ridiculous sequence.
10:04
Jameis to Judy for 15 untouched. Um, they called... Now this is the b- this... I don't know if I understand this to this moment. So it's Jameis to Judy for 15.
10:14
He is untouched, but apparently the, the officials blow the whistle that the play is dead, or he gave himself up or whatever, and Joey Porter Jr, realizing that he didn't touch Judy, tries to knock the ball out of his hands, and he gets called for delay of game, which is also a complete botch in the weather.
10:29
Nobody knows what's going on. Only Porter knew, "Hey, I didn't touch him. Let me go after the ball." He gets flagged for it. So there's that, too. So then Chubb goes for seven yards down to the two.
10:40
Remember, they're still down one point, and Tomlin inexplicably lets the clock run. What are you doing, Mike Tomlin? Wake up. For all his greatness, he was just out to lunch in this game.
10:51
So he doesn't use his last timeout. Then Chubb in from two. Touchdown Cleveland. 24-19 Browns with 57 seconds left. Two-point try fails. Pittsburgh from their own 36 with 50 seconds left with one timeout left.
11:03
They get it all the way to the Cleveland 35 with six seconds left with a Hail Mary, goes unanswered. Ballgame. The Browns win it 24 to 19.
11:11
The Browns a ridiculous one of 10 on third down, but four of four on fourth, minus two in turnovers. In fact, Opta stats, uh, put this game in context.
11:23
Forget all the, uh, the weather and the ridiculousness of the officials and Tomlin doing whatever he was thinking about at all the wrong times yesterday.
11:33
The Browns are the first team in NFL history to commit three-plus turnovers, have eight-plus penalties, convert no more than one third down, have under 25 minutes time of possession, and blow a 12-plus-point fourth quarter lead, and yet still win the game.
11:49
That was just unbelievable last night. Um, what does it mean from a betting perspective? Well, the Ravens become now the short shot or the, the slight favorite to win the AFC North real quick.
12:01
That could change, but as of this moment, that changed. Um, the Browns hurt themselves in terms of the number one pick in the draft with that victory. That as well. Steelers gonna be fine.
12:13
Still not at that season win total quite yet, though. Paul Carr next, Premier League.
12:18
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13:06
It's Gil Alexander, live from Circa Sports here in downtown Las Vegas. Uh, Kelly on assignment today. Uh, Kelly will be back on, uh, Monday. We get tweets at Betting The Book, always appreciate it. Big McAvoy.
13:19
Oh, BG McAvoy. Listen, we gotta, we gotta shout out our guy Phil Bobbitt yesterday. Phil Bobbitt from CBS Sportsline, uh, comes on to, uh, he did F1 for us last year.
13:28
I think he came on to do the Daytona 500 with us last year after that, 'cause people were like, "Oh my God, he was so good at the F1, let's get him back here." So he crushed F1 last year.
13:37
Uh, he comes on yesterday, and he had bets for the practice round yesterday, the practice, uh, qualifying tonight, and then the actual, uh, Las Vegas Grand Prix tomorrow night. Well, he picked up where he left off.
13:50
Yesterday a two and oh, a very nice, swift, clean two and oh, uh, one of which was a four-to-one play. Uh, he had, uh, who were the two? It was, uh, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell.
14:02
I think Russell was top three and Hamilton was top six, or was it vice versa? Either way, uh, he gets it done. BG McAvoy, great segment on F1 yesterday.
14:09
I parlayed the free practice top three and top six, got 850 to one, plus 850 to one, uh, in a big win. Thank you. Motor City Mike, "Big loud shout-out to Phil Bobbitt.
14:19
I took his two picks for last," uh, for, I don't know if for last week, but he's there. "I took his two picks and parlayed them into a lovely plus [chuckles] 850." Everybody's parlaying his stuff.
14:28
He didn't really recommend that, but good on y'all. "The plus 850 for tonight is long gone down to plus 280, but the guy he liked better is three to one. I'll bet both and see which cashes.
14:36
Also parlayed his Saturday picks, [chuckles] uh, $18 to win 5,000." Listen, you parlay people, stop it. Um, but I hear what you're saying.
14:45
Uh, Buddhist Man, "Tailed Phil Bobbitt," you can follow him at SpeedwaySteve2, by the way, "tailed his plays last year with great success."
14:53
Uh, then he said, "Came right back with him again this year, even sprinkled a parlay [chuckles] of the two individual practice plays for a little bonus." These parlays are not sanctioned, people.
15:02
Uh, LosVegas514, "Yo, what a beautiful sight to see football in the snow. There's nothing like playing football outside in the elements. Can we tell all the dome and turf lovers to scram? Sheesh."
15:12
The Better Life, Tim Lawson, "Looking forward to Paul Carr including Nottingham Forest in his three-pack today." Well, we're about to find out if, uh, if that's the case. Uh, let's see.
15:21
Vegas Regular, "I was torn on the going for two up 16 to six last night. See it both ways, but I guess it worked out." I didn't have a problem with that, um, because it is snow, right?
15:31
So the elements, the, the Browns definitely felt like the execution of any kind of kick was going to be problematic. So I, I had no problem with a two-point given, uh, the elements, uh, that's for sure.
15:43
Uh, let's talk some, uh, soccer. We'll get to more of your tweets in a bit. Uh, he comes to us from the heartland, from the middle of the country, Topeka, Kansas, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
15:52
You can follow him on Twitter, @PaulCarr, that's C-A-R-R.
15:55
He's at True Media Networks, spreading analytics throughout the, uh, North American professional sports community, and of course, the host of the Expected Value podcast. It's Paul Carr, everybody. How you doing, Paulie?
16:05
Hi, Gil. Always good to talk to you. I, I got a s- snow game story. You mentioned how it just captivates people. Oh, yeah.
16:12
Whenever there was a snow game while I was at ESPN, and you have the newsroom with all these pods, everyone's got a TV at their desk.
16:18
Like, on NFL Sunday and it's snowing in Green Bay, almost everyone would have that game on. Like, not Red Zone, not whatever, you know, their t- Like, that game would be on and just captivate people.
16:27
And- It's, it's awesome... and there was a, there was a US qualifier soccer against Costa Rica in March of tw- uh, 2013 in the snow, just a nutty game.
16:36
It was during the NCAA tournament, and that game was still on the majority of TVs. That's the kinda, it's just, it turns you into a kid, it's transfixing. I don't know, it's just great to watch. Did you...
16:47
I, I mentioned this, I was just recapping the game from last night, and at one point I, I talked about how Amazon decided at some point late in the third quarter, they were probably debating inside, like, "Well, if it gets too bad, do we do the virtual line stuff?"
17:00
Right. And so they decided to do it, which obviously helps, uh, Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit to look at the monitor and know what's going on. I think that's- Yep...
17:08
and maybe even more for the viewer, that's what they're doing it for. Yeah. Are you pro that or anti that? 'Cause I was, I was sort of of two minds. Yeah. Yeah, I am too.
17:16
It's, it's definitely helpful to watch and especially, like, last night I was doing some stuff and kind of half watching, it made it a whole lot easier.
17:23
But there is something about the magic of I have no idea what's going on, and you have to wait for the camera to, like, zoom out, like we used to have to do to see where everything is.
17:31
That is kind of a, a fun thing for a one-off. There, there is some fun in chaos. I mean, the, I was mentioning- Yeah... uh, stuff about the officiating last night too.
17:39
Al and Kirk, I, I sort of have to defend them a little bit because there was a lot of stuff that the, the next morning- Yeah... I mean, you pretty much figured out what happened.
17:47
But l- again, like, the delay of game on Joey Porter where, like, he, no one was touched down, I don't think they really got what was happening in that moment, and it wasn't properly conveyed.
17:56
Yeah, I think- But all of it has to do with the, you know, you're, you're trying to fight through your eyesight being, you know- Right... blurred the whole time, if you will.
18:04
Yeah, I mean, when they were kicking field goals and extra points, I had no idea where the ball was. [laughs] Al, Al said it too. He's like- He did... "I guess it went in." Yeah. [laughs] "The re- you know what?
18:12
The ref said it was good." There was that one- Yeah... where as soon as he kicked it, you're like, "I have no idea. I guess it's good." Yeah. Sure. Um- Yeah, and it messes up your production options too.
18:20
Just y- your- You just not gonna have as many good cameras for things like was that guy touched down, and yeah, everything gets a little bit out of whack. This was the, uh, nightmare scenario.
18:29
Remember when we had the one Super Bowl in New York? Am I remembering that correctly? We had one at the Meadowlands. It was cold. Mm-hmm. And this was the nightmare scenario. Mm-hmm. Right?
18:36
If a Super Bowl, this is why you have them in warm weather locations and in domes. Yeah. Because you don't want this kind of thing to settle a, uh- Right... an actual NFL title. Though that would be fun, wouldn't it?
18:47
Nah, maybe not for the title. That would be. We'd remember that one. We [laughs] we would absolutely remember that one. All right, uh, Premier League, first of all, how's the season going?
18:54
You moving the chains as per normal? Yeah, went two and one, uh, two weeks ago on last appearance. We're up three, 3.2 units I think for the year right now. It's Paul Carr, very quietly just moves the chains. All right.
19:04
Slow but steady. Slow but steady. All right, uh, by the way, uh, Tim Lawson, The Better Life, was, uh, trying to, like, anticipate one of your picks. He says, "He's gotta have a Nottingham Forest play."
19:13
You do not have- Right... a Nottingham Forest play. It was on my shortlist. Uh, I've, there's a good, decent chance I'll play Forest double chance at plus 215 or so at, at Arsenal, but it did not make my top three here.
19:23
It is not an official play. All right, let's get to- Sorry, Tim. Sorry, Timmy. Let's get to your official plays. You have two tomorrow. Yeah, we'll start with Bournemouth.
19:30
We're taking Bournemouth team total over 1.5 goals at minus 110 against Brighton.
19:35
This is a lot about Brighton's defense, which has not been very good, uh, giving up the fourth best shots in the league, the bottom half in expected goals allowed. Uh, they've got injuries.
19:44
One of their center backs probably won't play tomorrow. And Bournemouth has quietly been a very good, solid top half team so far. Uh, fifth most expected goals on the season.
19:53
They've scored at least two in 5 of 11 games, which is a little lower than you'd want, obviously, to take a minus 110, but against a not great defense, I think that bumps it up.
20:02
And they've had a couple others they easily could have scored two and just didn't finish. And they like to press.
20:06
They like to kind of give the defense trouble with their attackers, which I think will lead to goals for Bournemouth. So this is Bournemouth team total over one and a half at minus 110.
20:14
Team total for Bournemouth over one and a half goals versus Brighton, and then the old double chance. Man, so we've played three straight double chances against Man City on this show, and they've all hit.
20:25
So we're sticking with it. Let's go. Until it doesn't. Tottenham double chance, plus 160 at Man City on Saturday.
20:32
Obviously, as I've said, betting against Man City is not always the happiest experience, but City is just... I mean, we talked about Rodri, who's out. He's the linchpin in the midfield.
20:42
I mean, they've got almost a whole starting lineup of guys who are questionable at best for tomorrow with Phil Foden and Jack Grealish and Nathan Aké and Akanji and Nunes and Doku and Stones and Ruben Dias.
20:52
And you don't have to know who all these guys are to know that missing, you know, eight potential starters is not good. So City's defense hasn't been great.
21:00
Even with healthy players, they're giving up the best shots in the league. Tottenham, Tottenham might be the most up and down team in the league.
21:07
Sometimes they look like a top four team, and sometimes they look like a bottom half team. But I think the, the good side will come out here. They always seem to play well against Man City.
21:16
So Tottenham double chance, plus 160. That's the Tottenham win or draw. Win or draw. Again, I was just gonna ask, uh, Paul to define.
21:23
For the uninitiated, the double chance win or draw could be plus a half, uh, also at your sports book. All right, so Bournemouth over team total, one and a half goals on Saturday.
21:32
Also tomorrow, Tottenham double chance versus Man City, and then one on Sunday.
21:37
Sunday, we're going with Ipswich Town to score in the first half, essentially, over half a goal in the first half at plus 140 against Manchester United. Ipswich Town is newly promoted this season.
21:48
They've scored in six of 11 first halves, and all their numbers tilt toward the first half, better shots, more shots.
21:55
Uh, and they're just kind of worn down in the second half, which is not an unusual thing for a newly promoted team that may not have the depth, uh, of one of the bigger clubs.
22:04
Uh, they scored in the first half against Man City and Tottenham, played well against Liverpool. So they're not afraid of these bigger teams. Uh, for Manchester United, they have a new manager in Ruben Amorim.
22:14
This is his first game. He likes to play with three center backs, and United has struggled to find two healthy center backs this season that are in decent form. So I'm not sure how...
22:24
I, I'm just not convinced they'll adapt immediately to his schemes. So give me a first half goal for Ipswich Town at plus 140. All right, so over a half a goal first half for Ipswich Town, uh, versus Man U on Sunday.
22:36
Paul got it at plus 140. Always shop around for the price. So a little bit of everything. No, no- Yeah... game totals, which is usually- No totals... the staple. Yeah. No, no straight sides. Yeah.
22:45
Okay, all- Getting funky... all of this will be, again, a little funky. Um, all of this at vsan.com/picks for subscribers, every host, every guest, every sport at vsan.com/picks.
22:56
Last thing, uh, Paul, I need a one-word answer. Um, you're a Dolphins fan. Are they- Yes... are you hoping for the playoffs, or are you hoping to tank here? What are you hoping for? Hoping for the playoffs. Okay.
23:06
It's an honest answer. Gotta go five and two, probably. Probably so. Seven and a half point favorites against the Patriots on Sunday. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it, man. Have a good weekend. You too.
23:14
Moving the Chains with Paul Carr. We'll come back. Our Larsen is smooth Bet of the Week. That's next.
23:20
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Uh, you can go back months and find segments from your favorite shows. Really awesome. Check it out. Don't only check it out, download it now for free. Um, we get tweets at Beating The Book.
24:20
Oh, maybe we don't Yes, we do. We get tweets at Beating, [laughs] at Beating the Book. Uh, but I always appreciate the feedback from everybody. Brandon Kyles, "Great recap, Gil.
24:29
As a Steelers fan and backer, Cleveland's fourth-down conversions were excruciating. Waltman's 15-yard punt was anxiety-inducing, and Tomlin's late-game time management had me beating my head off the wall."
24:42
Uh, absolutely. Just a, a, Mike Tomlin is, might be a great motivator, but that was a, uh, the opposite of a Rembrandt last night, let's put it that way.
24:50
Rick Mockery, "Sounds like Kelly caught that F1 flu after last night's winners." Ah, he's on assignment. What are you talking about, Rick? He said I'm on assignment for those A&G investigations.
24:59
And then, uh, Mike Alvarez, we always like Mike Alvarez, says, "The Browns winning yesterday stopped a tweet storm from me on behalf of Mike Tomlin that would've been comparable to the snowstorm [laughs] in Cleveland yesterday.
25:09
Probably for the best, since Kelly isn't in today." So it's, uh, not as big bang for his buck, uh, on that one.
25:14
Uh, by the way, before we get to our, our Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week, I wanna mention there was a, uh, we like a good point-shaving thing.
25:20
I'm being, I'm joking obviously when I say that, but there, whenever there's a point-shaving thing that comes up in the news, we always like to mention it.
25:26
This was, I don't know if y'all remember this, but this was, this was in early March, earlier this year, right before conf- W- It was, it was, the conference tournaments in s- some conferences had started.
25:37
I was at the West Coast Conference tournament here at the Orleans watching Pepperdine play. Um, but some conferences were playing their last regular season games, talking about college basketball.
25:46
And, uh, one of those was Temple. And the reason I remember this so vividly is because at the Pepperdine game, I actually saw Matt Holt from US Integrity, and then by the end of the game he was gone.
25:56
And I never put two and two together, but this was the night where the very strange betting went on with that Temple game against UAB. Um, talking about Hassir Miller. He, uh, he was a Temple basketball player.
26:09
He later transferred to, uh, went in the transfer portal, went to VaTech. Never played a game for Virginia Tech. They got rid of him in October.
26:16
I don't know what Virginia Tech was thinking, uh, because they might've been the only ones that didn't know about this.
26:22
But what was happening was, uh, what we're referring to, there was a game between Temple and UAB in early March. Point spread was UAB minus two. It moved all the way to minus eight by early afternoon of that game.
26:33
Obviously, you all know, uh, six-point move in a rando game, not really usual. UAB ends up winning it 100 to 72 [laughs].
26:43
And Hassir Miller scored eight points in the game on three of nine shooting, and committed three turnovers.
26:49
Uh, Temple released a statement that day saying it was, you know, reviewing reports of suspicious betting patterns, blah, blah, blah. You know that story.
26:55
But what happened was, um, they noticed that the same people that were betting on this unusual move in this particular Temple game against UAB also happened to be the same people that were, that were making bets on other Temple games earlier in the season.
27:12
Uh, talking about total points scored in the first half, you know, random bets, different kinds of bets in all Temple games.
27:18
And so people started to, or at least the bookmakers and then those that are regulating the market, uh, who oversee such things, started to notice the pattern.
27:27
And when this game particularly moved six points, they were like, "Oh, okay, something's happening." Uh, Temple, you may remember this also. So they finish that regular season 12 and 19, right? They stink.
27:37
They go to the AAC tournament. So keep in mind now, they, they've seen a pattern of games where they think he's shaving. They see a pattern of games.
27:43
They go to the AAC tournament, and he goes crazy, Hassir Miller, [laughs] 20, 27.8 points a game in the tournament. They get all the way to the tournament finals, where UAB beats them again.
27:54
Uh, and anyway, this, this came up out of nowhere sort of yesterday, like, "Oh yeah, the investigation is for real." The FBI doesn't comment on such things, by the way, just to be, uh, perfectly accurate about it.
28:03
But, uh, this thing is moving forward, and it does not look good for Hassir Miller. And let's just say that this is different from that Jontay Porter thing in the NBA.
28:11
Remember, uh, the Raptors' Jontay Porter, who has, uh, who has been banned from the game, remember what he would do with his co-conspirators is he would just bounce out of a game.
28:21
Like, three minutes in, he'd be like, "Oh, my arm," and he would just leave the game, and so all of his unders, uh, would hit. But, uh, that is the latest in, uh, in point shaving, uh, in your sports betting world.
28:32
But that's no surprise to any of us who are in this. Uh, for some reason it was a surprise to people who reported on this i- yesterday, I guess because of the confirmation of the FBI investigation.
28:41
Which brings us to our Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah. Gotta love that music. Uh, Larceny, ladies and gentlemen, as always, the Smooth Bet of the Week presented by Larceny Wheated Bourbon.
28:56
Lock in a win and seize the night. Bardstown, Kentucky, 46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely. Uh, we went over this earlier in the week. I'll go over it again.
29:05
It's my, uh, bet on most improved player in the National Basketball Association. Uh, I took Norm Powell of the LA Clippers at 18 to 1.
29:14
Um, since then, by the way, right after I made the bet, ham- uh, Powell was like, "Oh, my hamstring hurts. I'm gonna be out two games." So second of those games is this weekend.
29:22
Um, that said though, here is my reasoning. If you look at the odds here for most improved player, let's just take it one by one. Let's start at the top here. Uh, Jalen Williams of the OKC Thunder, um, great ballplayer.
29:35
Um, but from 19.1 points a game last year to 21.8 right now, um, you know, you're gonna probably need a bigger stat boost than that. And again, you have to determine what are these voters gonna care about?
29:48
Are they gonna care about advanced metrics or more of the counting stats? And I would contend it's still more of a counting stats thing. So Jalen Williams does play for a good team.
29:56
I'm not sure how much most improved player associates with you having to play for a great team.
30:01
You certainly don't wanna play for a team that stinks, but the difference between a great team or a middling team I don't think has a huge impact on this award. Certainly hasn't in history.
30:09
So, you know, a two-point per, per game improvement for Jalen Williams. Next, he's, by the way, he's plus 425. Franz Wagner, this is our, uh, our chief competitor here. Fra- Franz Wagner of the, uh, Magic, plus 550.
30:22
Last night, Wagner, 37 points, including the game-winning three with two and a half seconds left over Cam Reddish of the Lakers. So that was, uh, that's good for anybody who has a Franz Wagner ticket.
30:35
He is at plus 550 now. He has shortened to plus 550 as the second shot. So I, I contend that the, you know, great performance last night, but again, it's from 19.7 points a game to 22.3. Okay.
30:48
Um, still not like a wow kind of improvement, even though I have nothing bad to say about him. Then you go, you know, Jalen Johnson, plus 650, good player, 16 points a game to 19.1.
30:59
I know there's other things besides points, but that's typically where things start.
31:05
Um, obviously he also has improved in rebounds and assists, 8.7 to 10.2, 3.6 to 5.3, so he's more of a triple-double contender is, uh, is Jalen, uh, Johnson. La- LaMelo Ball, y- this is not a Comeback from Injury award.
31:18
Played 36 games two years ago, 22 games last year. So, you know, by, by noting that it's Most Improved Player and not Comeback Player of the Year, I'm not too worried about LaMelo Ball. Uh, in the case of R.J.
31:31
Barrett, it's from 21.8 points a game to 23.8. Uh, in the case of Dyson Daniels, this is a big point improvement, but it's from 5.8 to 14.6 currently. Early season numbers I'm giving you, obviously.
31:45
Um, you usually don't come from oblivion to, "Hey, look, this guy's good." It's usually from good to great. Um, the other one candidate I sort of like to talk about, Cade Cunningham, great player.
31:56
Uh, by the way, hurt his hip last night. I hope he's okay. We'll see what's, what's going on with him. From 22.7 points a game to 23.5, which brings us to Norm Powell.
32:04
Norm Powell from 13.9 points a game last year to 23.3 currently, and is shooting f- I shortchanged him the other day, 48.7% from behind the arc. Do I expect it to stay at four eight- 48.7%? I do not.
32:22
I do not. But man, so far, give me that at 18 to one, and that is your Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week, courtesy of, uh, Larc- uh, Larceny Bourbon, of course. In order to have a nightcap, you need to have a night first.
32:36
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32:50
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32:59
Think wisely, drink wisely. Last thing, uh, no surprise, last night, Aaron Judge, MVP in the American League, Shohei Ohtani, MVP in the National League, both unanimous. Here is Will Hill on the show back in May talking.
33:12
I didn't bet it yet, but I think I'm going to. Aaron Judge, 16 to one to win MVP. Now, he had a bad April. Ooh. But he does have 10 home runs. The leader is Kyle Tucker with 13.
33:22
If you look at his track record, like the last couple years, in like 900 or so at bats, he's hit [chuckles] 99 home runs, which doesn't seem real.
33:30
If he could stay healthy and get somewhere near that pace, he can get probably in the 50s. And look, look, Soto's the favorite. Judge has had a bad start. There's so much time left.
33:40
I mean, look at a couple years ago, Harper was 30 to one in August. Robbie Ray was 150 to one at the All-Star break. Look at football. You know, Lamar was 15 to one a couple weeks ago.
33:48
The first month, I don't want to say doesn't matter, 'cause all the stats count the same, but there's plenty of time left. There's over 100 games.
33:54
Uh, if he gets in the 50s for a Yankees team that's gonna win, you know, maybe close to 100 games is, is, is in first place right now. I just think he was six to one to start the year.
34:03
At 16 to one, that's probably an overreaction. You're, you're getting a decent number there at 16 to one for a guy that could hit 50-something homers for a first-place Yankee. There you go, Will Hill.
34:11
Give him his flowers. Nailed it on May 15th on Aaron Judge. Jason Weingarten nailed Chris Sale. We'll talk to him on the other side. It's The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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35:20
It's Gil Alexander on The Numbers Game live from, uh, Circa Resort & Casino here in, uh, lovely downtown Las Vegas. Uh, Kelly will be back on, uh, Monday. We get tweets at Beating the Book.
35:29
Always appreciate the feedback. This is from The Numbers Guys. "Friendly reminder regarding F1. Tonight the play is Kevin Magnussen in qualification, um, without. Um, I got it at plus 850.
35:41
I believe it's down to plus 350 at DraftKings." Yeah, we should probably, uh, go through Phil Bobbitt's when we do, um, when we do the plays or our best bets of the day later on the show, uh, courtesy of GBang.
35:52
We should probably list, uh, Phil Bobbitt's remaining ones from yesterday. B- uh, this is from Derby Day Day. "With NFL lines looking a little sus, it's a nice weekend to nibble on football and F1.
36:03
Shout out to, uh, Phil Bobbitt again, s- sweeping his F1 practice picks. Hamilton, f- top six, Russell, top three yesterday." Uh, this is from, uh, Brosek1870.
36:14
"On the broadcast last night, s- they said it was downgraded from intentional grounding to the illegal touching by an offensive lineman because Jameis started his throwing motion before he was hit.
36:25
Brosek, that's not usually a reason to downgrade anything. Uh, there's a lot of intentional groundings where throwing motions are, uh, it precede a hit, but they still call it that. I don't, uh,
36:37
that was unbelievable, that play last night. Um, maybe you're right. Maybe that's what it was, but doesn't, doesn't really hold water to me.
36:44
Uh, Roger Jones, "Hi Gail, I think I heard on ANG one person say that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. Safe to say he's lucky he doesn't have to play the Browns on Thursdays more than once." That's true.
36:54
Uh, but they do get the Browns at home in, what is that, uh, 16 days. So that's the, uh, that's the time for them to win. Let me just say this. If they lose to Cincinnati this weekend, uh, excuse me, next weekend,
37:07
the Browns game becomes, like, a pretty big deal because after the Browns, oh boy, gauntlet in full effect. Cspackler, "Experience can become expertise and a skill.
37:16
I used to, uh, watch my DJ friends in studio on the local airwaves. I always marveled at all they kept track of and still sounded relaxed and into the topic. You are smooth." Thank you.
37:25
LarsonE is smooth, that's for sure. And, uh, JasonH11, "Do you have visual proof that Beidelon is on location? Dude's playing Sigma Derby rocking to, uh, Seeger, Dreaming of the Olden Days."
37:35
He might be doing that as well. That's true. We'll get, uh, someone over there, check him out, see if he's at the D. Uh, one other, uh, loose end from last night's game,
37:42
and I hope you enjoy the recap of it, 'cause it was just ridiculous last night. Um, that whole thing at the end, people were wondering about the Myles Garrett comment.
37:50
Um, uh, I don't know if you saw that when the post-game interview with the, uh, lovely Kaylee Hartung. She, uh, she was asking him about, uh, what was going on before the game. Apparently, there was a little beef.
38:00
Uh, Myles Garrett, the reigning defensive player of the year, uh, when the award was announced last year, apparently TJ Watt tweeted out, TJ Watt of the Steelers, "Nothing I'm not used to."
38:11
And obviously, uh, you know, is fr- showcasing his frustration with the decision. And, uh, Myles Garrett was asked before the game, "Hey, did you talk to TJ Watt at all?"
38:20
'Cause Myles Garrett was, you know, they, they were just trying to... I don't know if they were trying to make conflict or what it was. Myles Garrett said, "No, he didn't say nothing to me.
38:26
He's gonna have to apologize when I see him." And then after the game, Kaylee, uh, Hartung was talking to him, and, uh, they got into it and, and, with, with Myles, or Kaylee got into it with Myles about it.
38:35
And Myles Garrett said, uh, "I'm number one. I'm the guy."
38:39
So a little shout-out across the, uh, the bow, if you will, to, uh, to TJ Watt, letting him know he didn't appreciate the fact that he said that in the first place, didn't apologize, whatever.
38:47
A little drama between, uh, the two top candidates, perennially anyway, for defensive player of the year. TJ Watt remains the short shot for that award.
38:57
Uh, let's go under Cloud of Smoke in Southern Cali, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. It's Jason Weingarten, everybody, @spreadapedia. What's happening, Jason?
39:06
I imagine, take it you have some, uh, strong opinions on the game last night? Oh, dude. I, I thought for... I have a, I have a bunch of strong opinions. You had the Steelers, right? No, no, no.
39:14
I had the Browns plus the points, and I had the under, so I split. The under- Okay... I have no idea how the under didn't get there.
39:20
But, um, I just thought Mike Tomlin was horrific, and he doesn't get blasted ever for what was a series of, like, what are you doing? Uh, declining this, I'm accepting this. I'm just gonna let the clock run here.
39:34
Oh, now I'm gonna use a timeout. Before that actually, he used a timeout. So there's, like, a bunch of stuff he did where you're just like, he did not help his team out last night.
39:42
Um, you're allowed a bad game, you know, but, um, again, that's the thing with him. He's not a great in-game guy. You, what did you have last night? Uh, I had, I had some Steelers. Uh,
39:54
I was a little surprised, not, not so much with the game, but I was surprised that Mike Tomlin's still, like, four to one for, uh, Coach of the Year after this game, I would assume. You know... Yeah. That's a good point.
40:04
I assume that ship sailed. That's a very good point. He's still the number two person in that market, right? Four to one after that performance last night from him.
40:13
Um, yeah, I mean, look, they're still eight and three, right? They still have a great record. Um, if they were to go crazy from here on out, nobody would remember that as a big blemish.
40:22
Dan Campbell, by the way, two to one. Kevin O'Connell and Tomlin both at four to one, I should point out. Then Jim Harbaugh at plus 450. Jonathan Gannon sneaking up, plus 550. Um, there's everybody else.
40:35
Dan Quinn and Sean Payton the only two in, uh, the only two others in, uh, single digits. That's a lot, though. Seven different NFL coaches in single digits. In other words, nobody has any clue what's gonna happen. You?
40:49
I don't think I have much of a clue what's gonna happen. I do think Dan Campbell probably deserves to be the, the shortest odds right now. O'Connell, I don't know. Tomlin, not, not a huge fan of at that number.
41:01
I would think Jim Harbaugh's probably got a pretty good chance. People like him. Voters like the name. Sean Payton's got a chance, especially if they somehow make the playoffs with the Broncos.
41:12
I would assume that he'll, he'll absolutely be, you know, one of the top two or three vote-getters.
41:17
But if it was me right now, I'd probably have, uh, Campbell, Harbaugh, Gannon, and Payton on my, you know, my voting one, two, three and some, you know, some, some rank.
41:30
I, I don't know what, but pro- probably Harbaugh if I had to vote. Hey, uh, we ran a, uh, clip from May 15th last segment of Will Hill calling his shot on Aaron Judge for MVP. May 15th, it was 16 to one.
41:41
He was like, "I'm gonna, I'm gonna bet Aaron Judge at 16 to one." We couldn't find yours for Chris Sale, uh, for National League Cy Young. What did, what number did you have on, on Sale, and when did you bet it? 50.
41:53
Um, I might've, might've bet it around March 1st, possibly even the end of February. It was really early.
42:01
It was, like, one of the first bets I made, and it was mostly just throwing a dart and being like, "Well, it's Chris Sale. Um, if he's healthy, if he throws the innings- Mm-hmm...
42:10
he'll, he'll definitely have the opportunity to put up the numbers." And he, he did.
42:15
Uh, Will's, Will's Aaron Judge bet was really good, 'cause at that moment I was very convinced, uh, Juan Soto was the guy, especially on the Yankees, and that price drifted out on Judge and Uh, that, that was a great bet.
42:30
So, you know, m- m- many, many props to Will on that one. Yeah. It was Juan Soto, and then I remember we talked about José Ramírez at that moment as well. W- still, remember José Ramírez never got shorter than 25 to 1.
42:40
He was always out there, super tempting at that point in the season. Uh, both Judge and, and Ohtani last night for MVP. Uh, no surprise. Unanimous selections for, um, for MVP.
42:53
I think Bobby Witt was a unanimous second place in the American League also for, uh, second place in that, 'cause he had a ridiculously great season as well.
43:01
So i- it ends with, uh, no drama whatsoever, the awards season.
43:04
And once again, as we talked about the other day, maybe make it quicker, um, before the season, uh, or aft- right after the season ends, Major League Baseball.
43:12
Uh, what did you bet football, college or pro this weekend, Jason? Uh, UCLA plus four and a half, the rivalry game with SC this weekend. I think, uh, it's a good spot to get UCLA four and a half at home at the Rose Bowl.
43:25
Um, I bet on the Bucs this weekend. Bet some money line. I think I laid, it was like four and a half or something against the Giants.
43:34
Uh, what, what are the Giants doing demoting, uh, demoting Daniel Jones and then benching him like this publicly?
43:40
It's, o- obviously they're tanking, but I, I can't, I can't wrap my head around them coming out and competing the rest of the season. I think it's a good spot to play the Bucs this weekend.
43:50
Yeah, poor dude gave that, uh, he gave a little, uh, press conference yesterday where he read a written statement about how much he appreciated the organization. Like, I felt so bad for him.
44:00
Uh, demoted to third, QB three, actually really QB four if you wanna know the truth. But did you hear the reports, like they were having him play safety in practice as well? I don't, I don't feel bad for him.
44:10
He's getting paid a lot of money, and- Sure... he's played terribly. Sure. There's that. And you know, it's, it's obvious the team's gonna move on from him, so. Yeah. You know what I mean, though. Yeah.
44:19
Yeah, uh, uh- The, the safe- the safety part is where I would've been like, "Deuce is day bowl, you fake coach of the year." That's what I, that's what I would've said at that point.
44:26
Yeah, that, that was probably a little unnecessary to make him go out there- Yeah... and stand on the scout team. Yeah. All right, Jason, appreciate it. By the way, I, I just wanna clarify one thing.
44:34
I asked you the other day about the UCLA-USC game, and I asked you like not twice, but three times. I was like, "W- which are you ta- you're taking, you're taking, uh, um, which side are you ended up, did you end up on?"
44:44
UCLA, you said? UCLA. UCLA, right. And I was- Yeah... and I was saying, "Did you have any intel that USC was sick?" 'Cause you know, both of those schools are in LA. I was just saying with your, with your flu bug.
44:53
Oh yeah, no, USC is sick. They have- Okay... players that are sick. Lincoln, Lincoln Riley was sick. That's, that, that's part of the reason. Okay. Um, I appreciate it, Jason. Thank you so much, man. Pleasure.
45:05
Talk to you later. Have a good weekend. You too. Jason Weingarten, everybody, from under a cloud of smoke. Football Friday is next. Felika, Pheasant, Dr. Bob. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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