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Nov 22, 2024
A Numbers Game | November 22, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | November 22, 2024 | Hour 2
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:35
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. I appreciate it.
0:45
I'm very grateful as always that you allow us to be part of your mornings, Monday through Friday here, 10:00 to 12:00, uh, Eastern, 7:00 to 9:00 Pacific. Kelly on assignment today. He'll be back on Monday.
0:55
This is a Friday thing, becomes like he's on assignment. That's what we're, we're starting to do this. I gotta check in on that. Uh, still to come this hour, of course, it is a football Friday.
1:03
We have Chris Fallica standing by. Uh, we also have Steve Fezzik standing by, and of course Steve Fezzik will be in studio, and Dr. Bob to give his college football plays. Matter of fact, let's get it going.
1:13
Let's talk to Chris Fallica. He's known as The Bear. You can find him at Fox Sports now, Big Noon Saturday. They'll be at the, uh, Indiana-Ohio State game tomorrow.
1:21
And of course, he's got his podcast, The Bear Bets Pods, both college and pro football versions. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, Chris? Oh, not, not, not a heck of a lot.
1:30
I, I was curious, you know how, like, people always get the injuries early on, on player props, and they want, like, sportsbook refunds? Could I get a sportsbook refund for, for betting Campbell plus the 80 against UAB
1:41
last March- Oh... in, in the, uh, in the rigged game? Oh. [laughs] You gonna apply for that? Let me, let me see if we can, uh, work on that behind the scenes, [laughs] see if they'll give you your money back.
1:49
Yeah, I mean, it, it's hard for me. I know some people are like, "Oh, it's a serious subject. Why aren't you la- why aren't you laughing about it?"
1:54
I wonder, man, I wonder in this day and age, and this is not an original thought, because I'm sure there's lots of folks who wonder, but now this is... And it doesn't have to be players, right? It can be referees.
2:06
It can be whatever. Who knows how often this really is going on, right? Who knows? Now NIL will have some, some sort of ability to counter that a little bit, but not completely, right?
2:18
'Cause not everybody's getting deals. In fact, most aren't. So I don't know. Right. I don't know. It's an interesting subject. Let me just ask you this before we get to your college football plays.
2:25
Um, I just got this, I, I brought this up once on the show. You fly everywhere. You have when you were at ESPN. You do now at Fox with Big Noon Saturdays. Um, and I'm just curious. So I brought this up once.
2:37
My new, my new air travel pet peeve is this. I have a flight today. It's at 10:30 AM. Mm-hmm. Okay. Little qu- little bit of a quick turnaround.
2:47
So I'm almost like, in, in one respect, I'm like, "You know, a delay wouldn't be the worst thing in the world," right? So I get a text, I'm like, "Hey, they said it's delayed till 11:00." I'm like, "Okay, cool."
2:56
So now my brain goes in, goes into 11:00 AM mode- Mm-hmm. Yep... and I know how to plan how to get to the airport. Yep. But you know what they often do after that?
3:04
Then they'll send me a text at some point where I'm already, like, prepared to, like, lollygag for that extra half hour, and they'll be like, "Oh, remember how we told you it was a half hour delay?
3:12
Yeah, it's only gonna be a 10-minute delay now." And then you're like, "Whoa, now I'm late." Yeah, that- They cannot, they, they have to outlaw this. No.
3:19
No, I, I, I agree with like, if, if they repost a departure time a- a- and, and say you have new departure time's 11:00 AM, that's what it is, 'cause people are gonna do that, if, if they haven't left for the airport yet.
3:30
Or if they're in the airport and they're having- Right... having lunch or whatever, you, I, I'm, I'm, I'm on Team Gil there. Thank you. So you can't be...
3:37
If, if you're posting the, a new departure time, then, then you gotta go with that. I like when you're on Team Gil. Okay. Uh, before we get to college football, your bread and butter, NFL, anything?
3:47
I played the Raiders this week, and I absolutely hate myself for it.
3:52
But i- i- i- it's just a spot where, like, all the talk about Bo Nix now maybe being Rookie of the Year, and the Raiders fire and half their coaching staff, I, I don't know. It hits six, and I, I grabbed six.
4:04
It's not a, it's not a game I'm going to watch or wanna watch, but I, I, I think going, getting to s- I, I, I guess the one thing you can say is last time they played a home game, they lost by a touchdown to the Chiefs, so they at least, they, at least they played well at home in that game.
4:18
I, I don't... I, it's a bad, bad week in the NFL. It is. So that was the only thing- Yeah... that I even was like remotely close to, to liking. So yeah, Raiders plus six was a- Yeah, it's kind of-...
4:29
was kind of a gross home dog, I thought. Two things, I'm, I'm with you. One, your lighting has never looked better. You look fabulous- Really?... by the way, in that light. Okay. Thank you.
4:35
It's fantastic, whatever, whatever you're doing with the, uh, the natural light there. And then two- You can tell, you can tell Kelly on assignment the, uh, the, the Hilton Columbus. [laughs] What's that?
4:44
The Hilton Columbus? You can tell Kelly, who, Kelly who's on assignment the, the Hilton Downtown Columbus. Okay. He wants to know. He wants to know your ranking- Yes, I know he does... 'cause I know low-tier hotels.
4:52
That's right. I'm sorry, Hilton, didn't mean to call you low-tier there for a second. Um, but you're so right about the NFL this week.
4:57
And listen, I know l- we do, I do 10 hours every week, and obviously the network does more than that, and a massive percentage of what we do is the National Football League, as it should be, 'cause we're all in love with the NFL, right?
5:08
Everybody has an opinion on the NFL. Everybody's betting it.
5:11
But this week, man, we just did the megapod yesterday, Todd, Will, and I with, uh, Aaron Schatz from FTN, and this was a week where I, two of my bets were on last night's game, the side and the total.
5:21
[laughs] And the other one's on Monday. I hate everything on Sunday. I really do. Yeah. So like, it's, it's okay to fall that way. I don't know.
5:28
I'm gonna come up with five contest picks, by the way, 'cause I failed to put in the Cleveland one, uh, before the, uh, deadline yesterday. Um, okay. To college football. Yeah.
5:37
Before you get to your plays, one more thing. You are at the, the biggest game of the weekend. I am. Indiana and Ohio State, the biggest game in Indiana University football history. Your thoughts on this one?
5:50
I would, I, I would expect a kind of a low-scoring game, at least at the very onset. Um,
5:57
I think with Ohio State and the new offensive line that they have to implement now with McLaughlin getting hurt early in the week, that could kind of, uh, change the game plan a little, change continuity, maybe cause them to maybe Start a little bit slow.
6:08
I did play under 10 and a half, uh, in the first, first quarter. I played that yesterday at FanDuel. I, I don't know if it's still available or whether it's up at DK now.
6:16
I know we don't have, we don't have to specify things there, but that, that's what I had access to. I, I, I feel also that Indiana, how they were unable to move the ball against Michigan.
6:29
I felt much better about Indiana as a football team before I saw the Michigan game, because Michigan is, like, the most NFL-type body o- on the defensive side of the ball that they're gonna play, and they couldn't move the ball on Michigan at all.
6:41
I just wonder how much success they're gonna have moving the ball tomorrow against an Ohio State defense that's really playing very well lately. Uh, they've got it together. They've changed things up.
6:51
I, I would look at maybe under for the game. A good chance of, uh, of rain tomorrow as well, maybe a mixed precipitation at least early on. So, uh, number's coming down, too. It look...
7:01
It sounds like there's a lot of respected money and a lot of, lot, lot of sharp bets have driven this number down from, like, 13 down to, like, 11.
7:07
So it feel, it feels like there's a, a lot of, uh, people out there believing in the Hoosiers, but I like the under more than I do- Okay... Ohio State points. 53 and a half is where it is right now.
7:16
And by the way, when Dr. Bob comes a little later on the show, uh, comes on the show, he is going to, uh, talk about how much it annoys him- [laughs]...
7:24
that people who think Indiana loses big, they're out of this, um- Yeah... are ab- He, he believes they're being ridiculous. He thinks Indiana is a, his ratings, he'll talk about it, is a really good- Mm-hmm...
7:33
football team regardless of the schedule they have faced. Uh, okay, let's go to the SEC. You like a couple home dogs in the SEC, don't you? I do. I, I, I like Oklahoma getting, uh, 13 and a half against Alabama.
7:48
I'm pretty sure there are still some 13 and a half out there. Uh, look, Oklahoma has struggled mostly on offense this year, but Brent Venables is a still a proud coach, defensive-minded coach.
7:59
Uh, his job security is being questioned. Should he be the c- be the coach? Oklahoma is a proud Blue Blood program, and
8:07
we've seen Alabama struggle away from home this, at, at times moving the ball, with a loss to Tennessee and didn't look very good. They struggled against a really good SEC defensive front, uh, in South Carolina.
8:18
All this talk now about Alabama controlling its fate, uh, to get to the SEC championship game. Uh, I expect Oklahoma to play its best game of the year a- and at minimum, uh, keep this game very competitive.
8:29
I even played a little bit on the, uh, the money line on OU as well. And the other one in the SEC was? I did play Auburn on a plus to two and a half and on the money line a- against Texas A&M.
8:40
I think the Aggies are really gonna struggle moving the ball, uh, without L'Mond Brooks at running back. It's probably just gonna be a lot of Marcell Reed ex- attempting to be a, a one-man show.
8:50
Uh, I think A&M could get caught looking ahead here. This could be another lower-scoring type game.
8:55
Auburn's one of those teams that I think if you look at their record and you look at some of their underlying numbers, uh, they're a lot better than what their record indicates what they are.
9:04
So A&M, I think, going on the road with, with some offensive questions here, uh, I, I think Auburn has an excellent chance to win this game outright. All right. To the ACC.
9:13
You actually like a couple home favorites in the ACC. Yeah. And, and, and they're, and the games are kind of tied to what happened last week.
9:21
I laid 14 with Cal, uh, against Stanford, who pulled off a, a shocking, improbable upset coming back from double digits down, uh, against Louisville last week.
9:32
Uh, Cal losing as a double-digit favorite, uh, at home to Syracuse last week. That was another kind of, kind of a surprise result. I think Mendoza and that Cal offense, I think they get right. Stanford's not good.
9:43
It was a shock that they came back and won that game. I think Cal, uh, keeps the axe in Berkeley, and I lay the eight with Louisville against Pitt.
9:50
I don't know, uh, i- if their guy, Eli Holstein, is going to play for Pitt. Again, it's still kind of a, a muddled quarterback situation. And again, Pitt let one get away at Clump- against Clemson last week.
10:01
You wonder how they're gonna bounce back from that after a tough loss. And on the other side, you've got Louisville, who led by double digits in the fourth quarter against a bad Stanford n- team. Embarrassing loss.
10:12
I think they come out. I think this potentially could get ugly in, uh, in Louisville tomorrow. The Cal-Stanford thing, for, for those of us who have lived in the Bay Area, is so funny.
10:22
Like, f- first of all, it's, it's funny in any year because if you grow up on the East Coast and you know rivalries like Auburn-Alabama and, and Ohio State-Michigan, and then when you move to the Bay Area and people, like, for one week, they're like, "Oh, Cal-Stanford's the big game," and you're always like, "Come on, guys."
10:36
Now with Cal in the ACC, it's, like, even doubly ridiculous, wouldn't you say? Oh, yeah. How many...
10:42
Uh, uh, one of the things I sug- wrote in our little note this, this, this week that I, I send our show note and, uh, with story ideas and a plan, was, like, I, I'd love to go around to, like, ACC campuses and, like, ask random students, like, w- what, what, what, what's the Cal-Stanford rivalry called and what is the- [laughs] That's right...
10:56
trophy that they play for? And, like, yeah, s- I'm sure someone in Charlottesville, Virginia, would be all over that. Oh, I'm sure. I'm sure they're like, "Uh, I don't know. The Brain Bowl? What is it? I have no idea."
11:05
Yeah. Uh, okay. Any bonus plays? I- I'm s- Bo- Bonus plays, uh, I'm looking at TCU minus 11 and a half against Arizona. Um, I, I
11:16
think Arizona f- put together a complete game last week, but their defense has been terrible on the road. TCU's put together a pretty quiet, quietly good season since that turnover-filled loss to Houston.
11:25
So TCU is another one. And yeah, I know you were talking about, like, coach of the year and stuff with, uh, with, with Jason earlier. Yes, sir.
11:32
I w- I, I know the best price on Jonathan Gannon is gone, but if the rumors about Brock Purdy pulling himself out of practice are true, uh, then that's, that's a big hit for the Niners fans is to come back and win that division.
11:44
Uh, the Cardinals are already in the lead in that division. Arizona Cardinals win that division, uh, Jonathan Gannon has gotta get serious consideration. And I'm sorry, by the way.
11:53
I did not complete the trifecta of Jason Sail, uh, Sail starting at 50 to one, of Will Aaron Judge 15 to one, and Francisco Lindor should've been MVP at, uh- [laughs]... at 50 to one as well. So f- sorry, everybody.
12:06
Eh, sorry. For those who missed that, uh, Chris is lamenting that he wasn't able to complete the trifecta with Will and Jason with his Lindor MVP play. Thank you, Chris. Enjoy the games. Steve Fezzik next.
12:26
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Are you the type of player who's looking to get down $10,000 or more on an NFL line at the best price in the market?
12:37
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12:44
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12:52
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13:04
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. By the way, one follow-up to the, uh, Chris Felica segment.
13:12
Uh, one Ted Aroa McMillan from Arizona, gonna be a top 10 pick, we should point that out. But he brought up Brock Purdy of the Niners.
13:18
Brock Purdy, uh, yesterday, in terms of the, uh, p- the practice report, limited practice for the Niners. So we don't know if it's gonna be Purdy or Brandon Allen for the Niners. We shall see.
13:29
Uh, and now, ladies and gentlemen, uh, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton SuperContest, he's kind enough to, uh, join us here in studio.
13:35
And thank God for that, because on Twitter, he's an awful human being, but in person, well, he's, you know, he's palatable. It's Steve Fezzik, everybody. How you doing? Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde. Yeah.
13:44
[laughs] How does, how do you like that for an intro? He's palatable. Steve Fezzik. I, um, I, I prefer professional, but I- All right... you know what? I'm, I, I defer to you. It's your show.
13:54
You wanted to say something about the promo I just read, by the way. Oh, yeah. You know, the SportTrade, the minus 104, in a nutshell, they're, they're dumbing it down a little bit.
14:02
So on average, you're gonna be able to play at minus 104, but you can put up an offer and maybe only lay minus 102. So that's, I, I mean, it's the future. It's absolutely the future, and Nevada is fighting it.
14:15
They won't want the competition. But in all these other states, i- if you're living in Virginia or Colorado or Arizona, wherever they are, I hope they are in Colorado. [laughs] I know they're in Virginia and Arizona.
14:25
Yeah, you need a SportTrade. Look at the game last night. New Jersey, Colorado, Iowa, Arizona, Virginia. W- uh, the line's three and a half, right? Why lay minus 110 when you can lay minus 102? Yeah. You know?
14:35
It just makes so much sense. You wanna pay $10 for lunch, or do you wanna pay $2 for lunch? I like $2 better. Do you feel you are a better spokesperson than the CEO himself?
14:45
I think sometimes you're, you, to use your term, you're too close to the sun- Yeah... when you give examples. Yeah. Like, I would always give the examp- I would never, like, give an example where that's complicated.
14:53
I would like, "Hey, the line is painted. It's a Monday night football game, and the line is painted three and a half.
14:58
And now, instead of laying full vig minus 110, maybe there's some specials in town in Vegas where you can lay minus 108, and here you can lay minus 102 or minus 104. That's a good deal."
15:08
Yeah, you just, you just say it in the, in the, the words of a bettor. Um, so I understand that. Yes.
15:12
Uh, okay, the other thing we were talking about, obviously the, uh, that game last night between the Browns and the Steelers, top of mind. We were talking about that earlier.
15:19
One of the things, you never know what sort of resonates with listeners when I just sort of throw in something, and I just decided at one point, I was like, "Oh, let me, let me do a couple minutes on this point shaving thing," and you were completely, it, it completely resonated with you.
15:31
What I was referring to, for those who are just tuning in now, is yesterday it was just confirmed that the FBI, well, confirmed, the reports are, the FBI doesn't confirm it 'cause they don't comment on such things, but the, uh, the Temple ball player, Isiah Miller, or he was a Temple ball player last year, he then since transferred to Va Tech.
15:46
He never played a game for Virginia Tech 'cause apparently they were the last to know that this scandal happened last year, so they, uh, they let him go in October. Let him go, not the technical term.
15:55
Um, but it was a game in March. Again, um, some of us were at conference tournaments. I was at a, a WCC, a West Coast Conference game here in Vegas. Matt Holt from US Integrity happened to be in the stands.
16:06
Said hi to him earlier in the game. By the time the game was over, he was gone.
16:10
Not because Pepperdine sucked and it was a boring game, but he had business to tend to because that's when it first came down, because across the country, the, the behavior in a Temple-UAB game, the betting behavior was very off.
16:21
The line moved six points. UAB favored by two. By game time, it was by eight. I mean, that doesn't happen in a random late-season college basketball game.
16:30
They end up winning, UAB does, by [laughs] 22, and you said to yourself what from this? There is a whole lot more cheating going on than we would ever believe. That's your belief. And here's why. Yeah.
16:44
Every single scandal, and Mattie Holt does a great job with US Integrity, and I know Mattie well, and the policing has gotten so much better.
16:52
But every person that's getting pulled over for speeding is, like, driving their, their, their McCar- McLaren 118 miles an hour. Right. I mean, it's, like, literally world's dumbest criminals.
17:02
They're trying to get caught. Like, like, case in, case, "Here, let's have the line move six points," instead of being cool, you know, slowly spreading it.
17:11
Think about if, if you asked me, "Fezz, I need to get down 50,000, but you can't move the point spread. Could I do it?" Heck yeah, I could do it. In pieces. Nice and slow. E- easy pieces. Go for a little stroll. Yeah.
17:21
800 here, 700. Give, have some friends help me out. Slowly just, like, paper head accounts. No reason to, like, shake the market. And you know what? And you don't have to lose by 28 also. You know?
17:32
It's like you get, you gotta, you gotta little education, I'm sorry, to teach people how to cheat, but it's, like, in the color of money Tom Cruise, he's like, "The art of the dump is you, you aim just for the edge of the pocket, and sometimes the ball will go in, but more often than not it'll rattle in and out, the crowd'll go, 'Aw.'"
17:49
Mm-hmm. You know, it's so, when, when, when you miss a shot you make 98% of the time, then, like, obviously there's gonna be scrutiny. Yeah. The, the, the most interesting, I- By the way, I think you're right.
18:00
Uh, to, to what degree I have no idea, but, uh, it's certainly happening more than we know. And in tennis it happens- Oh... all the time because all it t- it takes is one person to fix it.
18:09
Well- And, and th- th- there's been so many scandals- Well, t- tennis- You can't count them... tennis, all the elements are there, right? Yes.
18:15
If you play in a 250 tournament or in a ITF tournament, you know, on, that's not on the main tour, it, again, there's no teammates obviously in tennis, right? So it's just you.
18:26
And just what you're describing, it's not, um, "Oh, look, I double faulted five times in a row." It's, you know, you and I were just talking about when you and me play tennis.
18:35
You know, uh, those guys are s- are skilled enough where they can just miss by an inch or two. Right. Or even less. Um, so, so it's, it's the perfect sport. And you don't have to always lose.
18:46
When you, when you throw a game- Right... you, you gotta say, "You know what? We're, I'm gonna lose 75% of the time, and if it j- just so happens my opponent can't make any shots, I'm going, 'Okay.'"
18:55
Or, or you know the spread, the spread in a tennis match. Yeah. You just don't get to the spread. Or even d- Or you do get to the sp- Every now and then you say, "You know what? I tried to lose- Yeah...
19:04
but this guy was so bad and I'm, and I can't make it so obvious. I'm just gonna have to eat this as a loss." Well, the, the economics of, you know, it's, that's the, that's the key part and parcel of all this, right?
19:14
So it's like, if you, if you're making hundreds of millions of dollars, you, you're not incentivized to do this. But if you're a, a college player who's not on NIL, right? Who doesn't have a deal. Mm-hmm.
19:24
If you are a tennis player who's playing on a lower tier, if you're not one of the top 50 tennis players in the world, by the way, the economics of tennis are really hard.
19:32
Like, if you're, you know, if you're 60th ranked, 'cause you're, you're s- you're buying, you know, you're, you're s- you're paying for your travel, you're paying for your physio, you're paying for your coach to travel with you, you're paying in some cases for your, your mental coach, right?
19:43
Like, so if you're on the ITF tour, of course, there's the incentive to do that.
19:47
The, the thing about the Tim Donaghy case, uh, Sean Patrick Griffin, who wrote the book, uh, Gaming the Game, who I did an interview with when my podcast was first fledgling, it was, it was 2011, and he came on.
19:57
We did, like, two hours on the Donaghy scandal. He's amazing. He's a friend to this day.
20:02
Um, but the most interesting detail of the Tim Donaghy NBA betting scandal was, of all things, or at least I found, found it to be the most interesting, Donaghy ended up largely fixing games by calling it by the letter of the law.
20:17
That's hilarious. So palming, right? Which never gets called in the NBA. He's like, "I'm sorry, whoop, that's a palm." And, and think about it- So he would do stuff like that... and if you wanted to g- g- Forget the NBA.
20:28
I know the limits are higher. But, like, like, just a college basketball game, you know, you, you, y- i- i- in, in, that, that's not even a p- a highly pub- You, you, not Duke, Arizona. Yeah.
20:37
But you go to NC Greensboro and just, you say, "You know what? We are gonna call fouls very liberally here." So any kind of contact, by the letter of the law, it's a foul, right? Yeah.
20:45
Both teams go into the bonus six minutes in. Wisniewski's texting, "They're both in the bonus. Get over the first half." [laughs] You know, but you already knew about that, so you are already playing.
20:53
Somebody c- One of the coaches complains, "T 'em up." Yeah. "No more free throws. More, but from both sides." It's so easy. It's unbiased. Neither team's gonna complain. They're like, "You know what?" Yeah.
21:00
It's like an umpire that has a strike zone that is, like, like, like, like, super, super small. It's, like, for both teams. It's fair. Yeah. It's n- no- no one's gonna b- have a problem with that. Yeah, for sure.
21:10
Um, all right. We will get to Steve's, one of the staples of his appearances here on The Numbers Game has been look aheads. We'll get to that in the next segment.
21:17
Uh, but as far as how your bets from last week to this week, are you ahead of the line movement on all these? Yeah, I got a summary here. So I got the Carolina Panthers plus 11 and a half.
21:28
So this is an int- a great example where right now I'm beating the number. It's 11. But I'm not beating it by enough.
21:35
So I'm getting what they would call closing line value, but closing line value is not sufficient to win because I have to not just beat the closing line but by enough for it to be profitable, and the market's line's 11.
21:45
So it's not a bad bet, but it's not a good bet. Similarly, we played the Eagles minus 2.5, but we laid them minus 120, and now the Eagles are at 2.85. I don't know if you know, I invented the decimal point spread.
21:57
I'm pretty familiar with it. I've, I brought that up before. That's right. You're right. But, but, but- Outlandish claims. That's right...
22:01
m- m- meaning there's more two and a halves than threes, but basically there's vig, you know, to associate with it.
22:06
So that's kind of, like, slightly better than market, but not enough to beat the close, to get the closing line value. But the totals was where we really did well. Titans, Texans played under 42 and a half.
22:15
It's down to 40. Okay. That's a good one. Of course, it was a good one to play the under on last night's game. Oh. How'd that work out? Oh, Jesus. And Baltimore, Chargers, this one's our golden ticket.
22:26
We got ov- over 47, and it's currently at 51. You agree with me that Mike Tomlin does not get enough guff for when he messes up, right? Well, you know, and, and, and I text all the time.
22:36
We've got the, you know, the politically incorrect text chain. I'm like, "Why is everyone giving Mike Tomlin a hard time for all these bad decisions? He makes one bad decision.
22:45
He doesn't have an analytics team that tells him what to do. Mike, y- you, you don't kick a field goal here. We- I'll t- I'll explain why later." [laughs] That's good.
22:51
And, and, or they can say, "Hey, this one's too close to call. Do whatever you want." That was ama- When he ran out the k- the field goal team at that point, I was like, "What are you doing?"
22:58
"Oh, we're gonna get the 58-yarder." Oh, yeah. It's like, we know that's not gonna be good. Yeah. Everyone knows it. By, a sharp fifth grader knows that's a mistake. Back a bu- Yeah, oh, it was so bad. Terrible. So bad.
23:08
Um, we'll come back. Steve's look ahead for week, look aheads, plural, for week 13 of the National Football League. That's on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:17
[upbeat music]The Sports Betting Network You ready to try something different? Not bad.
23:35
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23:44
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23:58
Uh, Steve Fezzik standing by. Let's read some tweets. We got tweets of Beating the Book. It's been a while since I read some, for God sakes. JC, @JC562076, "The Cal-Stanford rivalry is dead here.
24:08
Don't know why they promote so much [laughs] in the media." Ah, dude, it was funny even in the best of times to me. Mark Maynor, "Hey, uh, Gil, does, uh, Fezzik have a Blue Sky account?
24:18
And if he was off Twitter, would he be, [laughs] would he be nice both online and off?" Ooh. This is a great question. Are you familiar with Blue Sky? Y- yeah, I just heard about it.
24:26
So that's everyone who hates Elon Musk is trying to take a, take, take over and get a piece of the action, right? Yeah, the best line about Blue Sky is it's Twitter for empaths.
24:34
So, uh, my answer to you, I'll just answer in front of Steve, nah, he wouldn't be nice on there either, 'cause he, uh, not empath. Empath is not your thing. That's not your f- that's not your- I have empathy.
24:43
[laughs] Okay. Me too. Maybe y- [laughs] maybe you do. Uh, Kevin Ryan, "I completely agree with Fezzik that the, uh, Sport Trade CEO, when he was on the other day, was a bit confusing.
24:53
I have gambled my whole life, but I didn't really understand, uh, when he, what he was t- when he was talking about percentages. Dummy it down for us. I like that from Fezzik." Yes. You dummied it down for him.
25:01
Yeah, so the dummy down is that some people struggle with the American pricing, but we i- in, in the desert, we love American pricing. So when we say minus 160, that's clear to all of us.
25:10
But for somebody else, you know, the, the, when, when they wanna break it down to when a team... Like a minus 150 is a 60% chance of winning is a breakeven- Right... is where it was going. Yeah. Yeah.
25:19
Rhodes @rhodesknows, "I don't believe Matthew Holt works for US Integrity anymore." I don't know if he does or not, but he did at the time last year in March. He, he wor- That, that's his company. Yeah.
25:27
He doesn't, I mean, he, he doesn't work for him [laughs]. He is them. He, he is them. Yes [laughs].
25:32
Uh, NewYorkMess16, "My greatest oddity of tennis betting that can lead to the greatest, quote-unquote, fixing opportunity," oh yeah, this is great, "is that the dog can win outright, yet the favorite can still cover the spread."
25:43
Hmm. Yeah. That's a, it's a very, uh, it's a very true thing, right? If it's, uh, you know, 7-6, 1-6, 7-6. Yeah. Yeah. So when Gilly and I play, Gilly's a four-and-a-half point favorite.
25:53
We play to 21, and it's amazing how when it's 20 to 14, how I can win, like, the next two points. And then when it's 20 to 16, I'm suddenly facing Nadal in his prime. [laughs] Uh, thank you so much for that comparison.
26:04
Michael Baum, "I love listening to Fezzik. Definitely needs to hook up with Todd Wishnev for their own show. How do you think that would go?" A lot of interruptions. Oh my God.
26:14
F- uh, Todd on the Megapod, you, again, on Beating the Book Megapod, which I encourage everybody to listen to, he's trying to ask Aaron Schatz a question.
26:21
The preamble to the question is, like, 90 seconds, and he won't let Aaron answer it. A- and you know, the irony is when he goes on with a- an, an Aaron Schatz or a pioneer like Dr. Bob, and he is...
26:32
A- and Todd is, is just magical and so inventive and so smart, but, you know, research and development is not, like, his top priority.
26:40
[laughs] And I don't think he realizes how many hours are being crunched with this data that's in. He's like, "Nah, they, the, the Redskins weren't the best team of all time in 1993."
26:49
[laughs] Jason Stark, "Rough lo- uh, rough loss last night," he concedes, "but an admittedly difficult spot with, uh, Tomlin with only three days since Ravens game.
26:58
But I'll take Tomlin's occasional game management mistakes for his ability to get the most out of his players. Just look at what happened to guys like AB and Bell after they left."
27:05
Well, there's no doubt about that, Jason. Um, Antonio Brown and, uh, Le'Veon Bell, never heard from again, quote-unquote. Well, we heard from Antonio Brown- [laughs]... but not the way you wanted to.
27:15
Uh, okay, a couple things before we get to your look-aheads. One, and I'm glad you brought it up 'cause I would've forgotten. Oh, no, let me get to that second.
27:21
First, while Drew Dincic was on this week, he was talking about how he is not a true believer. I'm, I'm softening this a little bit. He's not a true believer in the Detroit Lions.
27:32
Meanwhile, um, most of us, um, most of us... By the way, is this true that Daniel Jones has been re- has been released, guys? Tell, tell me if that's true. Um,
27:42
um, he was talking about how he's not a true believer in the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, Aaron Schatz, just to use one person with power rankings, he's got his DVOA, granular, every single play at the NFL level since 1979.
27:57
Uh, Daniel Jones, by the way, it is confirmed, uh, released by the New York Giants per his request. Maybe he and McCarthy can, like, hang out- So-... at the Ponderosa- This is what I was talk-... some buffet...
28:06
this is what I was talking about earlier, man. You start, you start making me play safety in practice and, uh, yeah. Um, okay, so there's that.
28:12
Daniel Jones, uh, has moved on, and the New York Giants have moved on from him. Um, back to the Lions. Aaron Schatz, his historical DVOA numbers. Nine- uh, 2001 Patriots.
28:24
This is through two, through 10 games of an NFL season. Mm-hmm. 2007 Patriots, number one. 1991 Washington Redskins, number two. Those are also his two greatest teams of all time, reversed if you include the playoffs.
28:38
Not the Bears? 91 Skins, no. Oh. 91 Skins followed by the 2007 Patriots. His third best team through 10 games all time, all time being back to 1979, these 2024 Detroit Lions. Drew isn't completely convinced.
28:53
You texted me during Drew, and you said, during Drew's appearance, and you said what? Yeah, D- D- Detroit Lions are gonna win the Super Bowl. You're convinced?
29:00
Oh, well, uh, uh, I guess there's a 10% chance maybe they won't. [laughs] I- 90% chance. But, but no, they clearly are the, n- not just the best team, but by margin.
29:09
So I've got them a point and a half better than anyone else. And, you know, to be fair, you know, the, the Whale was in Central California. That's the breadbasket of America, right? Yes, it is. [laughs] That's right.
29:18
Thanks for listening. So when you think about it, that is not a good spot for the Whale to be inland like that. [laughs] So I think he was off because he was like- That's very true...
29:24
like, like if, like not by the ocean, like he normally... Like, you notice the Whale's always in Hawaii? Well, [laughs] Or on, or on the coast? Oh, Drew lives a, Drew Dincic lives a great life.
29:33
But no, d- d- I mean, I understand what his point was. Hey, they get a road game in Philly in January, who knows? I get that point.
29:39
Yeah, how are they gonna get a road game when they're gonna win 15 games and they're gonna be the number one seed? Yeah.
29:43
I mean, like, like they are, I know they got a couple difficult games, but the point is that, I mean, th- th- their over under I think is 13 and a half, and everybody, and, and, and Philly is, like, 12.
29:53
I mean, they're gonna- Yeah... they're very likely to get the number one seed. I'm with you. I've got them as my number one as well. Um, okay, the other thing
30:00
F1, we have to say this, because you were Captain I Hate These People last year. You h- and you were right, right? I live in the middle of the Strip.
30:09
It was pure hell, pure living hell, and it's a 10-year deal, so we're like, "Dear God, if this has to, if this happens every one of these 10 years, we're all screwed." You have to admit it was better this year.
30:19
I, it w- it's way better, but it's still a boondoggle. The construction companies are getting, are giving kickbacks to our commissioners.
30:24
It's the only thing that makes sense because you, you'll, you can ask Derek Stevens and Mike Palm. Yeah. I don't think they're making any more money- No... and they have all this inconvenience, all the...
30:31
If, if I ran for mayor and I said, "I'm gonna get rid of the F1," everyone who lived on the Strip or everyone who worked on the Strip would vote for me. I'd be the mayor. Yes, that's very true. A, a one-issue campaign.
30:42
Exactly right. Yeah. Because literally last year, when I was driving into the Strip, it was like the Fellowship of the Ring. Geek alert. Oh. Geek alert. I'm like, "How do I get to Gondor?
30:50
Oh, Moria, dare I risk the Balrog of the I-15? Ugh, that's the path I guess I gotta choose. Let the ring bearer decide." I have no idea what just happened the last 10, 15 seconds. I didn't r- understood none of that.
31:02
But you're right that, that the only casinos that benefit are the high-brand ones that, that are right online with F1, with Formula 1, which is the win- And even then, it's very nebulous because you've got three boondoggle days versus, like, like two months of, of unhappy customers.
31:17
That's true. That's true. Um, okay. It's a lot easier for me, though, I will say that. Uh, okay. I agree. Your lookaheads for week 13 in the National Football League. Let's go.
31:26
Thanksgiving Day, Miami Dolphins plus three and a half. You get this at reduced vig. These are all DraftKings. Minus 105, so D- Dolphins plus three and a half at Green Bay.
31:35
You know, I have Green Bay just the slightly better team. I can't even get to three on this game, so I gotta take the three and a half, gotta take the hook in a game Miami will need like blood.
31:43
Taking Miami plus three and a half against Green Bay next week. Yes. Okay. Pick- These are all go. These are all go. [laughs] That's right. These are not setups and go.
31:50
These, we, we are, we are betting the Miami Dolphins. Yes. Put it in your bet slip, and they're all goes. All right, uh, pick number two of three, I believe this is, right? Pick number two.
31:59
You know, I, and I don't even think you have a sense of urgency. I think you can bet this next week, but I, but the, I, I wanted to s- speak about it because I can ruin Gill's guessing line segment next week.
32:07
Don't r- don't remember this. No, you know what? I, it's funny. I don't remember any of them. Th- this one you will remember. Yeah. So Philly is at Baltimore. Philly plus three. It's a go.
32:16
And what a great spot for the Eagles. Power rating-wise, I only make the game right around two and a half, and I'm getting three, but the spot is great for Philly. Why? Not because it's great for Philly.
32:27
It's terrible for Baltimore. The Battle of the Harbaughs, Monday Night Football, big game. Now, a short week for Baltimore coming home. Philly, easy travel during the week for them to go from Philly to Baltimore.
32:39
We'll take Philly plus the three. Philly plus the three against Baltimore. Man, do I love Baltimore this Monday night in the Harbaugh Bowl. Give me John, minus the points, minus two and a half.
32:48
Um, and then number three, lookahead week 13. Yeah, Monday Night Football. Cleveland, we just saw those guys. We did. Um, and we saw their total against Pittsburgh was 36 and a half to 37. Mm.
32:58
And it soared over in a, in, in, like, a mega, like, sno- cyclone bowl. Now they're playing Denver with, uh, Bo Nix playing much better. We're going over the 40. So think about this.
33:08
We just saw Cleveland play Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a dead not under. That total opened 41 and a half, okay? Game still went u- over with, with, with the weather. Well, maybe there's gonna be a snowstorm in Denver.
33:18
Too early to tell. But if there isn't, 40 is way too low. In the National Football League, I tell you what, the days of seeing any totals in the 30s are, are, are dunzo without weather, so over the 40. It's really true.
33:29
It takes that to get... W- what was normal 20 years ago, would you say? Oh, back- We had tons of 30s. I'm gonna go, uh, you know, back in the... Back 30 years ago, like, I think the average total was, like, 38.
33:41
It used to be... Like, remember the defensive lineman could, like- Oh... pretend to punch- Oh, yeah, yeah... this, the, the offensive lineman. If they flinched- Yeah... then there would be a fl- a flag on the offense.
33:49
That's right. Remember... That's right. Remember those Ravens-Steelers games were, like, 34s all the time? Yeah, and every one of them, 16-13. Yeah. 19-16, final score. They go under. That's right.
33:59
Steve, always a pleasure, man. Your appearances are great. I, I- Appreciate it... I'm honored for you to have me on each- Oh... and every morning. Come on, man. Steve Fezzik, @FezzikSports if you're brave. @FezzikSports.
34:10
Shrapnel coming. Blue Sky coming. Blue Sky. Oh, no, please don't pollute Blue Sky. [laughs] Please don't do that. Uh, Dr. Bob- Blue Sky... the Pioneer is next.
34:19
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:36
Coming up top of the hour after a Numbers Game, Money Moves. Not with Stormy today, though. Scott Seidenberg in for Stormy.
34:42
He's gonna hang out with Jeff Schwartz, talk some, uh, NFL and college football with you from noon to 2:00 Eastern.
34:48
Then from 2:00 to 3:00, John Hanson with Prop Points, followed by Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00 with Make It Rain. That's coming up at VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:56
Uh, it's Gill Alexander, which, uh, brings us to our GBank Best Bets of the Day, and we have a bevy of them, a bevy of them. We're actually gonna even dip into yesterday, uh, 'cause some are still in play.
35:07
Here are mine, by the way. Let's start with mine. I'm on the Ravens on Monday night, Ravens minus two and a half. GBank, by the way, the official bank of VSiN, uh, bringing you all this.
35:15
I'm on the Ravens Monday night in the Harbaugh Bowl. I'm taking the Ravens minus two and a half against the Chargers.
35:20
I've got Norm Powell to win the Most Improved Player in the National Basketball Association at 18 to 1. I added a couple Super Bowl matchups this week.
35:26
Chiefs-Lions, 6 to 1, Ravens-Lions, 9 to 1, and I'm on the Colorado Buffaloes against Kansas, laying the two and a half here. I bought it to two and a half against Kansas. Paul Carr with his Premier League picks.
35:39
Bournemouth over one and a half goals, that's a team total, versus Brighton tomorrow. He's got the Tottenham double chance versus Man City. That's tomorrow. He's got that at plus 160. Shop around.
35:48
And then on Sunday, Ipswich Town over a half a goal in the first half for Ipswich versus Man U on Sunday. He's got that at plus 140.
35:57
Chris Fallica from FOX, uh, he is on Oklahoma getting the, uh, 13 and a half against Alabama. He's got Auburn as a dog as well at home at plus two and a half.
36:06
Then to the ACC, he's got Cal in the big game, laying 14 against Stanford. It's ridiculous. Now with Cal in the ACC, Louisville laying the eight as well.
36:16
Uh, and then he's got the Raiders, a sheepish play on the Raiders against the Broncos, taking the six on Sunday. Jason Weingarten stopped by.
36:23
He, uh, reiterated his UCLA play against USC, taking the points with the, uh, Bruins plus four and a half.
36:29
Then he's on the Buccaneers, laying the points Uh, against the Giants, against the Tommy DeVito-led Giants, laying four and a half this weekend.
36:36
He also took the Bucs on the money line, I missed that part, uh, at minus 285. And this, um... Oh, by the way, we have the Fezzik lookaheads.
36:44
Fezzik, who just gave us, uh, the Dolphins plus three and a half next week, the Eagles plus three, and he took the over 40 in the Browns-Broncos game. Those are week 13 plays, a trio of them from Fezzik.
36:55
This we wanted to close out the GBank Best Bets of the Day with. This is from yesterday.
36:59
Um, Phil Bobbit hit both of his practice bets yesterday, one of which was a four to one, so he picked up right where he left off, crushing F1 last year. Um, and tonight he's got some qualifying plays.
37:12
As far as the race itself, this is tomorrow, to win it all, he's got Charles Leclerc at three to one, top three, Carlos Sainz at minus 120, top six, Sergio Perez at two to one, top 10, Nico Hülkenberg at plus 125, Kevin Magnussen at plus 125.
37:27
Match-ups, he's got Leclerc over Lando Norris at plus 110, uh, Franco Colapinto over Liam Lawson at plus 125, and Valtteri Bottas over Lance Stroll at plus 150, and then props, safety car, no, plus 215.
37:41
Those are your GBank Best Bets of the Day. The GBank Visa Signature Card is your best bet, delivering 1% cash back rewards on eligible gaming transactions, 2% cash back rewards on all other eligible purchases.
37:51
For more information, head to visen.com/gbank. That's V-S-I-N.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply.
37:59
Skill Alexander, we always end our Football Fridays with the pioneer, one of the greats in handicapping sports, specifically college football. It's Dr. Bob, Dr. Bob Stoll, @drbobsports on Twitter, drbobsports.com.
38:11
He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Bob? Tired, Gill. Uh, [laughs] football and basketball overlapping is, uh, is, is, does not lead to a lot of sleep, I'll tell you that.
38:23
I understand that. I, I was telling people on air y- the other day that in the middle of the day, I wanna say this was Tuesday, uh, you call me.
38:30
You and I go way back, but we don't often talk on the phone, so when you call in the middle of the day, I'm like, "Oh, what's, what's Bob talking about?" And I said, "Hey, Bob. How you doing?"
38:36
And then without so much as a hello, for three and a half minutes you are going off on these people, uh, on Twitter, who believe that a, that Indiana losing here in dramatic fashion, let's call it, that's a very nebulous term, but big, let's say, to Ohio State, uh, they feel like Indiana should be bounced from all of this, and you were really upset about it.
38:56
And then before I could say more than five words, you were like, "Good talking to you, buddy," and you were out of there. Please, [laughs] please explain why this bothers you so much.
39:04
Well, well, the argument was, you know, well, if they lose by, you know, 10 to Ohio State, they shouldn't be in because their schedule's so weak. I'm like, yeah, well schedule's par...
39:12
I mean, they're beating these teams. Yeah, they face a, face a schedule that's half a point worse than an average FBS team, but they're beating those teams by 25 points a game.
39:20
There's only about nine or 10 teams in the nation that would outscore the same schedule by that many points. It's like saying...
39:28
It's like, and, and they're, they're, they're really a good team, and the, the fact that they played a weaker schedule does not take away from that.
39:33
It's like saying, you know, uh, what if the New York Yankees with, with Judge and all these guys, and Soto, uh, were sent to play a, a Triple-A schedule one season, and, and they dominated Triple-A.
39:43
People say, "Well, yeah, but they dominated Triple-A." They're still the Yankees. I mean, they're still a great team. And people say, "Well, they're a 12-point dog to Ohio State. I mean, what does that say about them?"
39:54
Well, Miami of Florida would be a 12-point underdog to Ohio State on the road, and no, and no one has problems with Miami of Florida being, being a top 12 team, e- even though they lost to Georgia Tech and their best win is, what, Florida or Louisville, com- teams that are combined 11 and 9.
40:10
You know, it, it, it, it, you know, the fact that they're a 12-point dog, any top 10, a, a top, a number 10 team in the nation would be a 12-point dog at Ohio State.
40:19
I just hope that they, you know, don't lose by 20 because they're minus two in fumbles or something random.
40:26
I think it'll be a competitive game, and if it is a competitive game, they've proven all year that they are a top 10 or 12 team.
40:33
I mean, Penn State, 10, their best win is USC, you know, and they lost to Ohio State, so what's the difference there?
40:39
[laughs] I mean, uh, it's just frustrating that people just will strength of schedule, strength of schedule's already accounted for when they're doing their evaluation, and now you're piling it on again as another reason not to have them in it just bothers me.
40:51
Real quick, what's the, what's the breaking point for you? Let's say a three-touchdown loss, but, like, legit three-touchdown loss. Does, would that move the needle?
40:58
Yeah, I mean, if they get, yeah, if they get out-gained by, you know, 200 yards or so, I still think they're in the discussion, even if they, even if they get blown out, but I get it.
41:07
I mean, if they lose by three touchdowns, and get out-gained by a couple hundred yards, and turnovers are even, then yeah, okay, maybe, maybe they don't get in.
41:15
But still, uh, Penn State hasn't beaten anybody better than USC- No... and Miami doesn't have a better resume either, so, you know- True that... I, it's, they, they should be in the discussion regardless. All right.
41:26
Let's get to your plays. Uh, Ohio State, uh, and Indiana is the marquee match-up this week, but Army, undefeated Army, taking on one-loss Notre Dame, and the Irish are two-touchdown favorites, 14-point favorites.
41:38
What do you got here? Well, well, I grabbed 16 and a half on Monday morning. I thought that was just a ridiculous line, so I helped drive that line down. It's down to 14 now. I still like Army.
41:48
I think the perception is, oh, they're gonna beat unbeaten Army just like they beat up on Navy four weeks ago, but Navy averaged 5.8 yards per play in that game. I mean, they, they moved the ball pretty well.
41:58
They fumbled it away five times. Pretty random for a Navy team that only lost two fumbles total in their other nine games combined.
42:05
So it was just kind of w- random that Navy was just moving the ball and then fumbling it away. Uh, Army has a better offense than Navy, and they should be able to move the ball.
42:15
You know, they've, they've averaged 7.2 yards a play in the eight games with Bryson Dally at quarterback, and they're half a yard per play better than Navy's offense after compensating for defensive pace.
42:24
And I think what, I think the value, and a lot of it here, and I don't think it's in the line, certainly wasn't in the opening line, is a team like, a team like, uh, Army, who runs the ball 87% of the time, makes Notre Dame's defense relatively weaker Now Notre Dame is 0.6 yards per rushing play better than average defensively, but they're 2.3 yards per pass play better than average.
42:47
But that doesn't really matter that much against a team that runs the ball 87% of the time.
42:52
So by running so much, you make, you make Notre Dame's defense 0.7 yards per play better than average, rather than 1.3 yards per play better than average, which they'd be against a normal offensive team.
43:03
That's about four and a half points of pure line value based just on the matchup, and I don't think that was in the line at all.
43:10
I just think, you know, and also Army's defense is better by almost a yard per, per play compensated than Navy's defense, and Notre Dame's offense is certainly not a juggernaut.
43:19
I mean, they're averaging six yards a play, which is good, but it's not great, and Army's defense is 0.4 yards per play better than average, and they just held, they faced one good offensive team all season, North Texas.
43:29
They just held North Texas to three points and 283 total yards, and North Texas' offense is just, just as good as Notre Dame's offense. So Army's got a better defense, a better offense, and the matchup really works here.
43:40
So I, uh, still like Army at plus 14 or more. If it w- okay, 14 or more. So 13 and a half, no play. I mean, you could... A small play. Yeah, I'd go ahead. Okay. Yeah. Okay. Small play. Yeah.
43:51
Uh, real quick, we have 60 seconds. A, uh, game between two middling ACC teams, North Carolina and BC. I like North Carolina minus two and a half.
44:01
Uh, Grayson James, the new quarterback for Boston College, played way better than expected against SMU last week. Yes, he did.
44:08
But, yeah, but he still only averaged, you know, uh, what, 5.7 yards per pass play this season against teams that allow 6.7 yards per pass play to an average quarter.
44:17
But he was horrible in his other start against Western Kentucky, and he only averaged 4.9 yards per pass play on 400 pass plays at FIU against weak competition.
44:26
Uh, and North Carolina's offense is a lot better with Jacoby Criswell at quarterback.
44:29
I just think it's an offensive mismatch with North Carolina much better than BC with James at quarterback, and even if James weren't the quarterback, North Carolina's offense would be much better, and the defenses are about the same.
44:39
So I think North Carolina minus three or less is a good play. All right, so North Carolina and, uh, Army, the two plays from Dr. Bob this weekend in college football. Thank you, Bob. Appreciate it as always, man.
44:52
All right, buddy. Dr. Bob. Talk to you next week. Everybody, talk to you next week. Dr. Bob @drbobsports on Twitter, and again, drbobsports.com for all of his stuff, uh, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
45:03
We've done all we can do. Money Moves is next. Scott Seidenberg and Jeff Schwartz. Enjoy from VSAN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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