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Nov 25, 2025
A Numbers Game | November 25, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | November 25, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
46:44
1×
Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
0:16
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:29
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:47
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, Let's Go Places.
0:59
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. It's radio's Gil Alexander, everybody.
1:19
That right there is television's Kelly Bidlin. Brings the pretty each and every day to the show. Hey, YouTube TV. [laughs] Still- And vsin.com... still to come, Jeff Erickson. Uh, Drew Dincic standing by.
1:29
We'll do our NFL power rankings. We'll do a little make miss playoffs. So much to get to. Um, real quick, we get tweets of Beating the Book. Mile High David talking about the Thanksgiving, American versus Canadian.
1:39
He said, "In Texas, do they call it hold 'em?" See what he did there? Mm-hmm. I did. We could do this for all kinds of things. [laughs] We really could. This could go on all day.
1:49
Didn't this start with the Chinese restaurants? I think it did, where, where Ame- where sort of geocentric Americans are like, "Do they call it Chinese restaurant?" [laughs] Like Chinese food? Yeah.
2:01
[laughs] Yes, exactly. Uh, Primetime, Cowboys_Cubs1. Yo. Hey, man. "Just wanted to wish you kids a happy New Year." Thank you. You too, Primetime. "Any DVOA all-time rankings updates?"
2:11
[laughs] He said, "Specifically, the best 5-5-1 teams of all time." [laughs] I do not have that. I'll look into it, though, I promise. Uh, I made one up yesterday.
2:21
He said, "Asking for an entire country peace and love in broad daylight." [laughs] You too, buddy. You too. I made one up yesterday. Yeah.
2:27
Of the Ra- the Ravens, the worst team to have a five-game winning streak [laughs] in DVOA history. Oh, dude. Is there anything about that team that... We'll get into that when we do make miss playoffs, 'cause I...
2:38
You know how we're all assuming Baltimore's gonna win this division? I am not so sure, people. By the way, we've- I'm not so sure...
2:44
we've officially hit the time too of the survivor year too, where I, I was just outside.
2:48
I'm just thinking to myself, the, the few guys that are screaming at their radio or TV, like, "All I have left is the Dolphins or the Jaguars." [laughs] "What do you want me to do?" Uh, Brian M chimes in on that.
2:58
He says, "In a traditional survivor pool, my famous last words, I'm trusting Tua." And KFlow, KFlorenz1, who provided all those stats, he says, "I appreciate the shout-out.
3:07
I'll, I'll, uh, have the numbers following the Baltimore-Cincinnati game Thursday night with a 13B, uh, with either the, uh, Eagles-Bears on Friday, then again after Black Friday." Thank you, KFlow.
3:18
Really appreciate all the numbers. What's left in survivor. And Chris Heath, "Did anyone run to the window to back the obligatory first half under in the early college hoops games?"
3:25
Oh, I'm sure the, I'm sure the guys are on the, uh, the early window unders in these college hoops games for show. Plus, we're gonna talk to Matty Cox a little later on as well about college basketball.
3:35
First, though, Drew Dincic, ladies and gentlemen. Whale_Capper is where you can find him on Twitter.
3:40
The co-host of not one, but two podcasts, The Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet The Edge, which he does with Jay Croucher, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
3:48
Drew, from his lair in the LBC, Long Beach, California. Drew, happy Thanksgiving to you, sir. Do you and... What do you do for Thanksgiving? What is your Thanksgiving plans this year?
3:59
Well, f- uh, we can get into that, but first of all, I have to thank you for the, uh, for ha- Happy Thanksgiving to you guys. Happy Thanksgiving to the listeners- Thank you... of A Numbers Game.
4:07
I hope everybody has a wonderful holiday planned. Uh, the, uh... And you reminded me, um, [laughs] Thanksgiving bonus, the neutral court first half unders in these college tournaments.
4:18
Like, uh, you know, just this easiest money you'll make all season. Um, but in seriousness, uh, the, um, uh, Thanksgiving at my household will, uh, will be over in Catalina. Ooh. Uh, taking the, uh- This-...
4:31
taking the Catalina Express, uh, just across the channel from Long Beach to Avalon, uh, and, uh, staying over in Hamilton Cove.
4:38
So I'll be over, uh, on island time, uh, from Wednesday through Saturday, and then coming home on Sunday. So, uh, it's gonna be pretty fun. Probably take a, take a boat ride. Do a couple golf cour- cart rides.
4:51
Uh, do some hiking. Do some free diving. I knew that was gonna be brought up. Uh, at a marine park at a casino. I knew you was gonna bring it up. This kid. And, uh, yeah, taking my paddleboard over.
4:58
I'll probably do, do some paddleboarding. And, um, yeah, soaking in the hot tub. You know, all the good stuff. You can nev- Drew Dincic can never be accused of not living life to the fullest. Yeah. Amen.
5:10
Uh, it's just good for you, man. What a, what a joyous Thanksgiving that sounds like. Maybe- Just a little free diving. Little free diving. Fresh caught seafood. You know, nothing new.
5:18
[laughs] Nothing special for a Thursday that Dincic rolls out. Hey, I found abalone out there last time. It was, uh... I, I didn't, I didn't take it. Uh, but, uh, yeah, there's abalones out there. Back, they're back.
5:28
All right. Well, before you go on your Thanksgiving trip, we're glad to have you here. I wanna ask you some NBA and some NFL questions. One, one with the NBA before we get to your picks here.
5:37
Um, Detroit Pistons win their 13th game in a row. That's not bad. Uh, they are 15 and 2 on the season. For all the talk about OKC, there's the Pistons, uh, lurking.
5:48
The difference, however, though, is besides being a, [laughs] you know, having the roster of OKC, the collective record. You know what the collective record of the Pistons' opponents is on this 13-game winning streak?
6:00
80 and 138 That is, uh, that is not good. Not good at basketball, those teams. Um, what do you make of the Pistons? Do you, do you buy them as a- Where do you think they end up seeded when the playoffs come around?
6:14
Uh, I think first. First? Okay. Wow. Oh, in the East. In the East. That's what I mean. I didn't expect that answer. Would you have gone with that answer? Mm, no. No. That's a- I would not have.
6:26
That's a ch- Well, who's better than them in the East? Well, I don't know. I'm just saying. I- [laughs] Kelly? Who do you... Put Kelly on the spot. N- n- no. Right. Who's, who's better than the Pistons?
6:33
I think right now I'd go with Pistons. Y- the question was one seed at the end of the year? At the end of the regular season. I still believe C- I believe Cavs or Knicks end up in that position.
6:41
I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna be that boring guy, Drew. Make the case for the Pistons, Drew- Wow... if you would. Well, uh, first of all, they don't take away the wins- They don't... in October and November. They don't.
6:49
They count [laughs] in the final standings. Banked, yes. Uh, they are banked, as they say. [laughs] Uh, Pistons second-best defense in basketball, and it's not close.
7:00
It's, uh, it's pretty impressive to me how well they are, um, well they are p- playing defensively. Um, I would, you know, uh, the gap between them and the, uh, uh, and the Thunder is obviously, it, it's a chasm.
7:12
Um, but, uh, really, really impressed with, uh, the way that their team defense is playing overall.
7:17
And, uh, and in particular impressed with the s- you know, the singular point of attack defense you're getting from Ausar Thompson.
7:25
Um, assuming he stays healthy throughout the season, I think he's gonna be in the DPOY race personally. Um, the, uh, the Pistons right now offensively I f- I thought they were gonna need a couple more pieces.
7:37
Uh, you know, it felt like they didn't really put all, uh, everything that they needed around Cade Cunningham in terms of shooting. But they've had enormous growth from, uh, Jalen Duren as an offensive player.
7:48
Um, on top of the fact that, uh, you know, some of the role players on this team kinda coming out of nowhere are, they look legit to me.
7:54
Like, they're passing the s- the, uh, kind of the advance, um, advanced, uh, you know, stats test beyond just the eye test here. So, uh, Pistons run eight deep. Uh, and, uh, they maybe even make a move.
8:08
Like, this is a pretty good landing spot for someone like, I don't know, Lauri Markkanen- Yeah... uh, who can come in and be just an immediate upgrade, uh, at the, uh, power forward position for them.
8:19
So, um, yeah, I, I kinda think it's a pretty well-constructed team. Uh, I like the vision.
8:25
Uh, and, uh, because it's like, it's not just fueled by weak schedule, albeit it has been very weak, um, they're doing the thing that kind of s- does stand out as far as, like, when you are a very good team.
8:39
They've been at the wrong end of, uh, fatigue disadvantage four times so far this season already, like significant disadvantage, and they've won all of those games.
8:48
Like, they're, they're finding ways to get wins by, on nights when they are, you know, resting half of, you know, resting some of their starters and, and, uh, and still, um, you know, able, able to, uh, to get it done.
9:01
I think the fact that they have Jaden Ivey as effectively as a, uh, you know, kind of a trade piece to bring in another player is, is of interest. Um, and, uh, yeah, I think, I think they're gonna make a move.
9:11
And, uh, you're gonna look at them at the end of the day like last year's Cavs where they're gonna be the standalone one seed. Wow, I'm glad I asked. Yeah, me too. I did not, I did not expect that answer.
9:20
Well, a- and I think the, the Ivey piece is huge, right, Drew? 'Cause I think it depends- Sure... on how you f- I, I mean, I, I like Iv- Ivey. I'm high on him. I think you're right, he could be a trade piece.
9:28
But w- at worst case he's added offense where I think that would still be the number one concern, right? I mean, who, who gets the ball when Cade's not r- handling things? Who's gonna take that big shot?
9:38
Jaden Ivey is probably the guy. That's, I mean, Gil, that's what's so interesting with OKC and Detroit is that you've got weapons that they haven't even showed yet with Jalen Williams and Jaden Ivey.
9:47
By the way, to win the East, just to be, uh, thorough, Cavaliers are plus 225, Knicks plus 450, and then the Pistons at plus 650. Of course, that's not the question I asked about number one seed.
9:57
That is to get through the Eastern Conference playoffs and to represent the conference in the NBA finals. So that's where the Pistons, uh, slide in or slot in in that conversation.
10:08
Uh, only three games in the NBA tonight, Drew. What do you have? Uh, I got Lakers, I got Magic. Um, I know it's tough to bet these, uh, Emirates Cup games because they do mean more.
10:22
[laughs] Um, but, uh, I think in general the Lakers are kind of the team that I'm the most enthralled with right- Actually, I take it back.
10:29
Now, I th- I, I, I think I've bet almost every Lakers game this year, and I've bet almost every Rockets game this year.
10:35
For some reason the market and I are just completely at odds with those teams being, like, legitimately excellent. Um, and so it's out to six and a half. I guess I, I didn't realize the market had moved that much.
10:47
It's up to six and a half already? Oh, foosh. Yeah, moved in the small. Uh, okay. Well, [laughs] I made it at a better number. [laughs] I think, uh- Not, not so much anymore. Uh- Yeah...
10:56
I think six and a half actually is getting a little tight. Um, I just wanna kinda say f- about the Lakers the, um, uh, here's, here's a better bet. Don't bet six and a half. [laughs] It's maybe moved a little too much.
11:08
Uh, the, um, uh, there is a big, big price on Austin Reaves Most Improved Player that I cannot square. Mm. The Most Improved Player rubric is usually, um, given to first time All-Star.
11:26
And the way that Austin Reaves is playing right now is very much on a path to make the All-Star team.
11:32
Uh, if you look at, uh, all in one stat, like estimated plus minus, uh, Austin Reaves currently is a top 10 in the NBA offensive creator, uh, which is absolutely amazing. He's a plus four. Uh, Luka Dončić is a plus six.
11:49
They are the best one-two punch going right now in terms of, uh, you know, a Batman and Robin in the NBA. And, uh, and yeah, I just, I don't see that there's any obvious weakness here with this Lakers offense.
12:03
Um, I think that the integration of LeBron coming off of the sciatica, uh, absence, he's p- he's found a perfect home, uh, with those two guys on the floor.
12:14
Uh, and I know that they just lost DeAndre Ayton for, uh, a little bit of time and, and their defense could get real weird and terrible.
12:21
Uh, it still is, uh, such a dynamic offense that I don't think they're gonna have any issues finding ways to get crunch time, uh, buckets and, uh, and win close games, uh, through this next portion of their season.
12:32
So even though they have outperformed expectations to this point, outperformed their numbers in terms of win-loss, um, I don't think that, uh, I don't think that the, uh, regression is coming anytime soon for the Lakers.
12:44
Um, the- Okay... Rockets and Lakers to me I think, you know, very much in line to finish again two, three. Com- Coming back with- Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
12:55
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
13:00
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks, built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
13:13
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
13:19
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
13:29
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
13:36
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
13:45
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Oh, look at that burger right there.
14:03
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14:09
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14:20
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14:35
See site for details. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Uh, this is from, this is from Brian Schaefer31, "Best commercial on VSiN. I just heard it yesterday. Gil Alexander doing the Omaha Steaks. What a great job.
14:50
He was sizzling." Oh, that's the, uh, the, the recorded one? I haven't even heard that back. Thank you, Brian. I think he just recorded it on Friday or something, right? Was I, was I getting into it?
14:58
Was I, like, was I sounding like I was eating one while I was doing it? Nick G, "McCaffrey is averaging 3.7 yards per carry," I believe he's saying. Oh, I saw this last night.
15:08
How many touchdowns is he gonna have to score to overcome that in the voters' eyes?
15:12
Yeah, but as Drew and Boise pointed out yesterday to us, with McCaffrey, this was before last night's game, where again, he filled up the box score both rushing and receiving.
15:23
He's at, yeah, on the, on the pace right now, he's at current pace, he'll set the season receiving yardage mark, surpassing Marshall Faulk for running backs. That's the greatest show on turf.
15:35
Has a chance at the receiving touchdown record for the position, nine shared by Faulk and Jerick McKinnon.
15:40
And also, going into last night, he led the league in scrimmage yards, tied for second in total touchdowns, the only player with at least 700 rushing and 700 receiving yards, and has exceeded 100 scrimmage yards nine times.
15:51
Make that 10 after last night. So yeah, there's all that too. I, I was admittedly surprised to see that stat about the yards per carry. Yeah. But yeah, like, the, what he's doing in the receiving game is ridiculous.
16:05
Del Mind the Gap Radio, "Happy Thanksgiving crew of a numbers game behind the glass too, y'all." He said, "As a Dolphins fan, beware, typical letdown after a week off. Looking forward to 2026. Kelly looking good."
16:15
Thanks, man. Yeah, you are. And then Lockman @SBO_Picks, "That was the best Thanksgiving of all time in terms of me winning that day. 2021 Lions cover against the Bears, beginning of the Dan Campbell era.
16:25
Raiders beat the Cowboys and Deshaun Jackson looked like the Eagles," uh, DJ, what'd he say? DJ here, "And the Bills, uh, covered when they were actually good." Ah, Thanksgiving memories from years gone by.
16:36
Uh, Drew Dinsick kind enough to join us for a second segment here, as he does always on the show, uh, each and every Tuesday, @whale_cappers where you can find him, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, of course.
16:46
Um, so just to clarify, Austin Reeves, just picking up where we left off. Austin Reeves is 40 to 1, most improved player.
16:52
I, I actually did it, what I thought was a good deep dive on this the other day, and I only went five deep on it, right? The Avdias and the Gideys of the world, um, Duran and all those guys at the top.
17:03
Rollins was in there as well. But I didn't get to Austin Reeves. So 40 to 1. You're, you said, Kelly, you're gonna make that bet again? I think I'm making that bet today. As well. I, I've been looking for
17:13
the, I, kinda as we talked about last week, it's not a market I've bet into yet. Yeah. It, it, it's one of my more successful ones.
17:20
I was kinda lo- waiting and look, looking for the right guy, and I think Drew Dinsick might've just put it, pointed me in the right direction. Yeah.
17:25
I got all the way to Jalen Johnson and then I quit after the first five there. You see Austin Reeves there, eighth at 40 to 1. Uh, the counter you'll hear, a- and Drew, fe- please f- uh, feel free to jump in, follow up.
17:38
I mean, it's gonna be LeBron's back, Austin Reeves isn't gonna have the ball as much. That, that's gonna be the basic counter you're gonna hear.
17:43
But already the stat improvement that he's put up just with the counting stats, it's pretty incredible for a 40 to 1. Okay, so Drew, your, your Lakers at current price you don't love as much.
17:54
What was the other play tonight though? Uh, Orlando Magic for me. Uh- Orlando Magic. Okay... really, uh, uh, tough, tough to say this considering our history, but, uh, Magic are better without Paolo. [laughs] I'm sorry.
18:11
[laughs] Oh, man. I'm sorry. It is- And by history- It is-... if you know, you know [laughs] kinda thing. [laughs] Yes. It is. It's tough, man.
18:22
I've been a Magic supporter for quite a while, since they made the very correct decision to take Paolo first overall so many years ago. Um- [laughs] That's right... but, uh, [laughs]
18:31
but whoo-wee, uh, that, uh, that offense just flows so much better, uh, with, uh, you know, with the current, uh, players available. And maybe some of it is just Suggs being back matters a ton, uh, for them.
18:44
But, uh, yeah, the Magic should be, uh, more like five-point favorites in my opinion, so still plenty of room to, uh...
18:51
Still, it's, they've flipped favorite, still plenty of room there, uh, on, uh- Uh, on the side for Orlando. Okay. We transition to the NFL. Kelly, uh, said something off air, though. This is, uh, not our nor- Oh...
19:02
not our normal thing that we do. But what did you have, Jon? I, I'm gonna have Drew repeat a trivia question to you- Okay... that he threw at Andy Molitor on the Deep Dive podcast yesterday.
19:11
It blew my mind while, while I was at the gym. All right, Drew. What was the question?
19:15
Yeah, so, uh, you know, we, uh, we had a big conversation last week about, uh, whether or not Myles Garrett would break the all-time sack record this year.
19:25
Uh, that was a prop that was widely available in the plus money range before he played Geno Smith and the Raiders, which did not square.
19:33
Um, and I think is now reopened in the -400 range after he got 3 of the 10 sacks for the Browns on Sunday.
19:40
Um, and you look at the pace for sacks, he is clearly on pace to set the single-season record for sacks, and he is currently leading the NFL in tackles for loss with 26. 26 tackles for loss.
19:53
And I looked at that body number, and I thought, "Man, that must be also on pace to set a single-season record for tackles for loss." It is not on... He is not on pace to break the record.
20:05
Do you know who the, has the record and h- by how much he currently holds it? Oh, I love stuff like this. I do not. I have no guesses. And in the interest of time- Curre-... who, who is it?
20:13
Current record holder, uh, J.J. Watt, 2012. He had 39 tackles for loss in a 16-game season. [laughs] It's not even close. It's amazing. It's unreal, and you know why it's not even close?
20:28
It's 'cause he holds the record over himself. [laughs] He, he currently has second and third place all time with 29. He has a 10 tackle for loss advantage over the next best performer, which was himself.
20:43
A decent chance that Myles Garrett steals second place, but, uh, I do not see him getting to 39 this year. I think if we had five guesses, we could've come up with J.J. Watt, but I would not have known the number.
20:52
I would not have known 39. Him holding the top three- Yeah... spots is more impressive to me- It is incredible... than the 39, actually. Absolutely. That's amazing. All right, to, to week 13 in the NFL.
21:05
We got your Thanksgiving games. We got a Friday game. We got, uh, your normal weekend fare as well. What did you land on? Uh, we'll stick with the, the Texans.
21:13
Uh, I do not agree that the margin between Indianapolis and Houston warrants a five-point spread here. Um, I took the points with Houston, expecting C.J.
21:26
Stroud will return, expecting that, uh, this Texans offensive line has actually been playing, uh, substantially better. Um, and, uh, I would, I mean, you know, there was no... [laughs] They had nowhere to go but up.
21:39
Um, but, uh, in general, I think, uh, Texans match up really, really nicely defensively with the Colts. Uh, and this is gonna be a game decided by a field goal either way.
21:49
So took the five plus, uh, I had, uh, a plus five minus 111 in pocket for the Texans. No real discernible difference for me between five and four and a half here. Uh, they both look like winning plays in my opinion.
22:03
Okay. Is that the only one, or you have some totals as well on the other side? Oh, no, I got a bunch. All right. Let's hear them. Uh, just, uh, the, uh, uh, the Thursday games are fraught with injuries.
22:15
Uh, the injury reports yesterday made my head spin trying to handicap any of these sides. Hmm. Um, I saw the Packers move coming.
22:24
Didn't get the three at full stake, so not gonna say the Packers, uh, unless it gets back to a f- a, a flat three.
22:31
Uh, the Chiefs look interesting to me at three, but I need, uh, that price to come down a little bit more. It's -118 right now. I would take three minus 110. The total in the Chiefs-Cowboys game is nonsense high to me.
22:44
52 is a good bet to the under at -104. I think there is a humongous s- game state here where the Chiefs win, uh, and take, you know, just evaporate time off the clock in the second half of this one.
22:57
Uh, and, uh, this lands comfortably under 52.
23:01
I think there's also a world where both offensive lines having meaningful injuries coming into this game, and skill position players dealing with injuries on a short week, that this is just not the, uh, uh, the back and forth shootout type of game that a 52 would imply.
23:15
So, uh, favorite total of the week is, uh, under 52 in the, uh, in the matinee, I guess. Um, steering clear of Bengals-Ravens. I know we got confirmation that it'll be Burrow.
23:27
I thought this might move the Ravens down to six and a half, at which point I was gonna play Ravens, but- It'll get there... uh, still stuck at seven. It'll get there So I'm gonna pass. Yeah.
23:35
Uh, you think we'll get six and a half? I do. I do. Okay. See you on the board. Uh, I may revisit that, though.
23:40
Although, like, a bunch of other key Ra- like, really just backing the Ravens at this point is not supporting their offense, which is putrid.
23:46
It's supporting their defense, which is very good, um, and supporting, like, that there will be rust, uh, with Joe Burrow, who's coming off such a lengthy injury and playing without T. Higgins.
23:55
Um, but, uh, I'm, I'm ultimately probably not gonna have action in that game, 'cause so many important Ravens defensive players are missing practice as well. Uh, I took Bears plus seven.
24:04
I took, I laid it with the Dolphins and the Seahawks, uh, and I bet the Jets money line. So those are the three stinky ones for me. They are the three stinky ones. Um, all right. It's all fun, though. All football.
24:15
Uh, I like that under, that Chiefs-Cowboys game. I like your, uh, your reasoning there. Drew, happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. Um, if you can adopt me, uh, that'd be great also. [laughs] For real.
24:26
It's fa- I want Will Hill's family to adopt me for all the food they have. I'd like you just for the adventure. That'd be great. Yeah, looking at 72 and sunny out on the island this week, boys. Ah. This guy.
24:38
It'll be fun. Drew Davis. Hey, best of, best, yeah, best of luck this week. Happy holidays. You too. Coming back with Jeff Erickson on week 13 of the NFL next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
24:48
[upbeat rock music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The VSiN Average Joe Contest from Edge Boost is all about the weekly prizes.
25:04
Each week you make seven picks, NFL or college, and the highest score that week cashes $500. Already have an Edge Boost account? That prize doubles to $1,000.
25:13
And while you're chasing weekly wins, you'll also be in the mix for big quarterly prizes like airfare and hotel at Circa Las Vegas, plus an in-studio spot on a VSiN show of your choice, I believe. It's free to play.
25:24
Enter any time this season at vsin.com/joe. Uh, we get tweets. I just wanna read this one, 'cause, 'cause it was Brian Schafer was talking about my Omaha Steaks ad. Mike Boreali, uh, chimes in.
25:35
He says, "Gil, can't wait to try that air-chilled chicken from Omaha Steaks. I normally chill my chicken with carbon monoxide. Not good. Air, who knew?" I just read the copy, man. Air-chilled. It's actually really good.
25:47
It's really good. It's really good. But I'm actually very eagerly awaiting our, our... Did you get back to Mike Sennet? You hadn't... Did you get back to him? Oh, no, I did not. You gotta email him.
25:56
We, we're getting deliveries from, from Omaha Steaks, man. Oh, I think I'm all about it. That stocked my freezer for, like, months. It's great. [laughs] I gotta get back to Mike Sennet on email.
26:05
If I could only find my email. Oh, it's on my computer. Yeah. Oh, that's right. All right. Real quick, before we get to Jeff Erickson, and maybe we'll have Jeff chime in on this.
26:12
I know we're talking about every other sport under the sun today, uh, college basketball, college football coming up as well. Um, but there was a couple baseball trades, one yesterday, one today.
26:20
Yesterday, man for man, uh, Marcus Semien going from the Rangers to the Mets in return for Brandon Nimmo, which I thought was a pretty interesting trade because Semien is 36 years old, um, was a great player, but, you know, you know, still a serviceable player, but he's 36.
26:40
The Mets really must love defense to make that trade, uh, or really want a defensive improvement, and we'll see what Jeff has to say about that. That's pretty interesting. Nimmo, a lifelong Met.
26:48
And then, uh, Jeff Passan just reporting now the Boston Red Sox are acquiring right-hander Sonny Gray in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals.
26:57
Sources telling ESPN Red Sox get the veteran who said he would waive his no-trade clause to leave. First on the news was Jon Heyman.
27:03
By the way, Sonny Gray, you know, who's played for multiple teams, started out with the Athletics, most recently with the Cardinals, as we just mentioned, uh, still really good in terms of his advanced stats.
27:14
He had a 3.39 fielding independent last year, a 3.07 xFIP, um, with a K rate of 26.7%. I mean, still really solid numbers.
27:25
We bring in Jeff Erickson, who's here to talk week 13 NFL with us, but as a fantasy guy, as one of the co-founders of Rotowire, man, this man knows his fantasy sports, uh, each and every way, baseball being sort of the bread and butter.
27:38
How you doing, Jeff? Happy Thanksgiving, first of all, and what do you think about either of these two trades?
27:43
Uh, you know, it, it's interesting with the Cardinals because you have a new front office taking over, and their first move is to, to trade off again with Sonny Gray their nominal ace.
27:52
But this is a team I think that's gonna go kinda strip it down a little bit there. Uh, if you look at the MO of, uh, previous, uh, transactions with, uh, the GM there, uh, it, it...
28:01
They like to kinda build anew, and they're gonna build up that farm system. They're gonna try to do the new Cardinal way, if you will, and I think they have a hardline owner, too.
28:09
Looking ahead to, uh, next offseason's labor wars, it- there's been a lot of chirping about a salary cap this offseason. We know what's gonna happen next offseason.
28:16
So this is yet another, you know, another commitment they're taking away. Sonny Gray out, you know, I think he out-pitched his ERA that, like you alluded to, the FIP.
28:24
Uh, a lot, lot of the, uh, expected numbers suggest that he was a little unlucky last year. However, it's kinda two years of semi-decline for him as well. Yeah. Expensive player, 25 million a year.
28:33
So, uh, he waived his no-trade clause. Boston obviously is gonna try to go for it a little bit more. They have to try to figure out how to, uh, build up that rotation.
28:41
This might take them out of the Tarik Skubal hunt, such as- I was just-... if there is such a thing... thinking about that. I was just thinking about that. Does this mean they won't go after Skubal? Yeah.
28:50
And, and they might see... They might just say that they, they, they knocked on that door and found the answer not to their liking and moved on, is, is, is one of the approaches that I see with this one here. Yeah.
29:00
I still love the idea of the, the best lefty one-two combination ever. Skubal and Crochet would be the most awesome thing ever. Yeah. We'll see.
29:08
Um, and then Semien and, and, and, uh, Nimmo, you have any thought about that trade at all? You know, I, I, I think the Mets, uh, you know, you know, have made an emphasis, point of emphasis on run prevention.
29:18
Run prevention- Yeah... I think was the theme going into the off-season here. Semien is a far better defensive second baseman than, than they've had over there, but I'm a little worried about this one, Gil.
29:27
I, I, I look at, uh, what Semien has done the last two years offensively, and there's been steady decline. He's a 35-year-old second baseman. Not too many of those guys age particularly well.
29:37
Ryne Sandberg is basically your, your canonical example of a good-hitting older second baseman, and it... Usually that position drops off quite a bit. Semien's already shown that.
29:46
He's got plantar fasciitis, uh, so we'll watch that coming off-season, uh, in, into the spri- into the spring a little bit there. But Nimmo's actually got a longer commitment financially too.
29:57
This might give David Stearns a little bit more flexibility to go attack the, the starting pitching market. Yeah. I was, I was unkind by one year. You are correct.
30:04
Marcus Semien, 35 years old, not 36, as I mentioned earlier. Uh, to the NFL, Drew was just on. Drew Dincic, [clears throat] whale capper, was just on, and he mentioned he really loves the Chiefs-Cowboys under 52.
30:18
You do as well. I do. Uh, well, this is, this is a reflection of where the two teams are right now. Uh, the Cowboys, their front, their front seven's markedly better.
30:29
Uh, the Quinton Williams trade has done what it's accomplished in ter- terms of the front four. They've implu- improved their linebacking corps as well, and I, I don't think the Chiefs offense is fixed.
30:38
On the flip side, I think Spags is getting things together a little bit on the Chiefs defense as well. Uh, you saw what they were able to do against Jonathan Taylor.
30:45
They, you know, they really limited success on those early down runs. They got, they got the big stuff, uh, uh, on, in overtime on Taylor on third and one.
30:54
They're doing a lot of things right, and, and, you know, th- this is always a defense that seems like it starts to hit their stride later in the season. I think we're there, there.
31:02
You, you know, they're now short turnaround for this week for the offenses makes it really tough. The one fly in the ointment is that Dak is, is d- is, is, uh, dealing right now.
31:11
And if but for a couple CD Lamb drops, that could have put up a bigger number last week against the Eagles. That's the one thing that scares me, but 52 seems like a high number. My number was set at 50.
31:20
Before we move off Thanksgiving, one fantasy question from Thanksgiving Day. Um, Joe Burrow, obviously, s- all signs point to him starting for the Bengals this week. That's, uh, the operating assumption.
31:31
In fantasy, is he an automatic start for owners? No, it's not automatic 'cause it's his first game back. No Tee Higgins in this one. I think it depends on your alternatives.
31:41
I, I think it depends what you did in the interim. If you've been holding onto him this whole time,
31:46
you might have, i- i- you might have like, you might have stumbled upon Matthew Stafford, who was available early on in the season.
31:52
If you have Stafford, you're gonna play Stafford, I, I, I think, especially in the first game back. Uh,
31:57
in most cases, though, I, I'm gonna probably end up, I'm doing my rankings, uh, this afternoon, and I'll probably put Burrow around 10 or so, uh, 10 to 12. They, the Bengals have a pretty bad history on prime time games.
32:09
I know last year the shootout was like, they had a shootout against the Ravens on a, on a Thursday night game. It wasn't Thanksgiving, but, uh, they always seem to play Baltimore in prime time at night.
32:18
It's, it's o- it's one of the, you know, it's one of those things. It's always at Baltimore with that prime time game. They, this is four years in a row for that. Hmm. Uh, often they have laid an egg.
32:26
Last year at least they o- the offense showed up. Uh, I, I think he's probably gonna be a start. Say I, I have a leaguer where I'm starting two quarterbacks and I have a Tua versus Burrow decision.
32:36
I'll go Burrow in that case. But, you know, I, I, I think he's around 10 or 12 for me. I like that turn of a phrase, by the way. "Often they have laid an egg." [laughs] It's very true about the Ravens.
32:45
Often they have laid an egg- Yes... in this situation. Uh, okay, let's go to Sunday, Monday. Let's go back to your picks. Let's go back to some, uh, some totals.
32:53
Uh, speaking of quarterback uncertainty, Denver and Washington, I, uh, I'm gonna read between the lines. It feels like no Jayden this week. I know we don't know that- Yes... for sure, but that's what it feels like.
33:05
That total between the Broncos and Commanders is 43 and a half. Which way you going here? I'm going on the under on this one here. Uh, I don't know if we're gonna see Patrick Surtain.
33:15
I think that's one of the uncertain things. We probably won't have a good idea on that one till Thursday or Friday due to his pectoral injury. Same thing with Alex Singleton.
33:22
Uh, but both coming off the bye week, so you know, you get that. Both teams are coming off the bye week, so you do have a little bit of that added rest, which is nice.
33:29
Uh, but I, I look at what this Denver defense is probably gonna do to that Washington offensive line. I don't think Washington's gonna be able to run the ball all that effectively.
33:37
I, I, I kinda like the under in this one here. And I also just have a distrust of Bo Nix. I, I know he played pretty well, especially in the second half against the Chiefs. Do it again. Uh, I, I, you know- [laughs]...
33:46
I think this is, this could be a, I think it could be a Denver win, like, tw- you know, 22-13 sort of feel for me. I, I like the under in this one. All right, Raiders, Chargers.
33:56
Chargers are gonna be a very popular survivor pick, uh, for those in the circle who get through Thanksgiving. Um, nine and a half point favorites, now the Chargers are. Nine and a half, though.
34:06
You are going to hold your nose and take the points with the Raiders? Am I saying this correctly? I am. Uh, and it is a hold your nose, uh, situation here. Changing the offensive coordinators this week.
34:17
Maybe they change things a little bit more to P, uh, P, uh, Pete Carroll's likings in terms of how to run the offense. Patrick Graham's actually dialed up a pretty decent defense with some pretty mediocre parts.
34:27
But the good news for them is they're facing a Chargers team that, I, you know, I don't think they went in the o- you know, during their bye week and went out and signed, uh, you know, Anthony Mun- prime, prime Anthony Munoz or anything like that.
34:38
They have two, you know, they don't have an offensive tackle, uh, worth, uh, talking about. They have really, uh, poor protection rates for, you know, for Justin Herbert.
34:47
I think, uh, we'll see a game that's kinda in the muck. I think the Chargers pull away and win at the end, but I, I'll, I'll take the nine and a half. All right. You gave us a couple unders.
34:54
If you could choose one over, where, which way would you go, which game? Gonna go Jacksonville, Tennessee on this one. I like what I'm seeing out of Cam Ward.
35:01
I, I like that they're having more designed runs, more scrambles for him. Uh, he's getting out of the pocket and making some plays. Uh, the game's coming to him.
35:09
He, he, he, the parts he has to work with are pretty poor, but you saw some things against Seattle, pretty good darn defense, uh, in the second half last week there, where he was really starting to move the ball.
35:17
They converted a couple fourth downs. I like what I'm seeing out of him. Let's take the over in this game. Over 42.
35:22
Jeff Erickson, Jeff underscore Erickson, that's Jeff with a J, by the way, on Twitter, courtesy of Progressive Gas Line. Jeff, happy Thanksgiving to you, man. Uh, to you and yours. Enjoy. Right back at you. Thanks, Gil.
35:33
Thanks, Kelly. Jeff Erickson, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Gas Line. Uh, we got college basketball to get to with Matty Cox, college football with Tyler Shoemaker.
35:41
But first, Kelly and I take a stab at NFL power rankings. Next on A Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
36:04
Back on A Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, Downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidlin. Oh, look, we have different, is that different, uh, fonts down there on the screen for this segment?
36:16
Yeah, it is, yes. Oh. How'd that happen? [laughs] Interesting. Huh, things- We, we, we did make a slight graphic changes... things like that. There we go. Bang. [laughs] There's the old one.
36:23
[laughs] What's going on there? Um- We've had some graphics being updated... okay. I like it. It's kinda cool.
36:29
Um, Dgen_SouthernGent tweets, and this was earlier when we were talking about the, uh, Niners and the Panthers yesterday, and it was talking about Ryan Fitzgerald's 57-yard field goal try, and then it... What did I say?
36:38
It landed in Redwood City, which is the Bay Area geography that somebody c- uh, checked in with Milpitas.
36:44
Dgen_SouthernGent said, "I believe he almost kicked it to the cats, or as Bay Area natives affectionately and correctly call it, Los Ga- Oh my God. Somewhere out there... Los Gatos.
36:52
Or as, or as Bay Area natives r- uh, pronounce it, I should say, Dgen_SouthernGent, uh, D- Dgen_SouthernGent, Los Gatos.
37:00
Uh, he says, "If he kicked it hella hard, though, [laughs] he might have even kicked it to the bathrooms, or as native, uh, Modestans say, or know it, Los Banos." Yes.
37:11
It's a very, this is a very specific Bay Area geography right here Is, is he still referring to my feral cats in the stadium? No. No, no, no. Okay These are just, these are just Bay Area towns.
37:20
They were joking about what Ryan Fitzgerald's field goal try was so bad- Yeah, yeah, yeah... it landed in wherever. I think it almost hit Dinzik in the head. No.
37:25
By the way, that, that's the other thing about all these places in, uh, the Bay Area. They mispronounce everything, right? And it's become entrenched. And this is how people know if you're from the Bay or not, right?
37:35
We always talk about San Francisco. Yeah. Don't say Frisco. Don't say San Fran. You're immediately called that you're not from here. Yeah. Right? So Los Gatos, Los Gatos.
37:44
But here, here, I'm just gonna give you a little test real quick. Ready? So is that, you say Los Gatos? That's how they say it. That's how they say it. It's like- That is fascinating. Okay. Okay I don't know that one.
37:52
Well, here's another Spanish word. V-A-L-L-E-J-O. Uh. How would you pronounce that? Viejo? [laughs] Okay. It's, it's Vallejo in Spanish, but in the Bay Area it's pronounced Vallejo.
38:07
And if you don't say it that way, they know you're not from here. Vallejo, right? Wow, okay. There's a street in San Francisco, G-O-U-G-H. How do you pronounce that? G-O-U-G-H? Yes. I have no idea. Just give it a stab.
38:20
Gouja. [laughs] Gough. And if you don't say Gough, you're not from here. Really? There's so many of these in the Bay Area. It's very specific. End with an A? Uh, no. A or H? No, there's no A. G-O-U-G-H. H. I misheard.
38:32
Sorry. Yeah. Gough. [laughs] Well, I was on like gouja. What the heck? Anyway, anyway, there's tons of those in the Bay Area. No, I did not know that. It's fascinating. Oh, everything is mispronounced.
38:40
And they, it's clear who's from there or not based on your mispronunciation. By the way, C-O-N-C-O-R-D. Concord. Oh, you would think, right? Concord. Concord. Yeah, that, that one I know.
38:51
And if you don't say Concord, you're not from there. That one I know. Yeah. Whole bunch of them. That is, that is- We could do this for an hour. Yeah, we really could... seriously.
38:59
Uh, but in the meantime, NFL power rankings. Plug it in. [machine whirring] Live 105. All right. All right. Birds. They finally admitted to the birds, right? Finally admitted. Yeah.
39:16
R- Rob, Rob also edited a new version of that too without the birds. Oh, wow. So the birds could stop distracting us. No, I, I like the birds. Okay. All right. Gil likes the birds. Let's keep the birds.
39:24
Let's keep the birds. Uh, I have a new number one. Not much of a change at the top, but I did flip one and two. Rams go to one, Seahawks go to two.
39:31
Seahawks got a win against the Titans, but the Rams just crushed the Bucs. I know Baker Mayfield didn't play for a half. Baker Mayfield again with the low-grade sprain to his non-throwing shoulder.
39:42
We'll see if he plays for the Bucs, um, as a brief parenthetical aside. But Rams are number one for me now, Kelly. Seahawks are two. Eagles remain three despite coughing up the 21 to nothing lead against the Cowboys.
39:54
Lions remain four after outlasting the Giants. Packers move up to w- to five. Chiefs, Chiefs are the team that bounce up and down, up and down, up and down- Yeah... every week for me.
40:05
I had a lot of movement in these middle teams too. They, they never leave the top 10. They never really get to the promised land. They're six. Colts down seven after their loss to the Chiefs, or down two rather, 2-7.
40:17
Uh, Bill's down one after the loss of the Texans, eight. Broncos are down one from not even playing football. And then, uh, the Patriots remain 10. And again, Patriots fans who, who think I hate the Patriots,
40:29
I can't raise them any higher because of their schedule. And just as point of comparison, Patriots fan Aaron Schatz going into this past week had them 17th- Yeah... in DVOA. So, uh, easy with the incoming.
40:44
But anyway, that's my top 10. At, and to, to answer your, your question that you ended our power ranking segment with last week, Kelly, there is no,
40:52
no temptation for me to have any team that is not in the top 10 crack into it yet. Isn't that fascinating? Uh- So I'm the same 10 again too, and I feel the exact same way.
41:05
'Cause I, I do, I, like I, I thought about that more, and maybe you did too 'cause you just brought it up, I thought about that more this week.
41:13
Like, you know, how long am I [laughs] gonna ignore the Chicago Bears being eight and three? Well, w- w- How long am I gonna ignore the 49ers? Well, let, let's, so, so I just mentioned the Patriots are 17th in DVOA.
41:24
This was going in, I didn't see the updated for this week. Mm-hmm. But going into this past week, the teams in between, so n- nine of his 10 are exactly nine of our 10, right?
41:36
And we just mentioned we have the Patriots in our top 10. He has the Patriots 17th. So who are his 10th through 16th that are in between? Does that make sense? Mm-hmm.
41:44
So who are the, who are the teams before he gets to what is our 10th, the Patriots? Who are his teams? His teams were the Texans, Ravens, Niners, Bucs, Steelers, Jaguars, and Chargers. By the way, the Bears- Jaguars...
42:00
did you bring them up? Wow. The Bears, did you bring them up? 22nd. 25th headed into last week. [laughs] Headed into last week. God. I'm sorry, go ahead.
42:09
I just, I believe I saw that they were at number four on Stephen A.'s, uh, top five- Stop it... just, uh, for comparison. Well, here comes the tough part of that schedule for the Bears, so we'll see. Yeah, exactly.
42:18
That, that's where it's like the schedule has to be brought up. Like it has- Yeah. And, and what's to come. I'm not saying the Bears are definitely bad. They can, they can prove me wrong.
42:26
They could easily prove me wrong. All right. Rams, Seahawks, I made the flip last week. They stay the same, one, two. And this is where, this is where I'm, I'm with you, Gil.
42:35
There's a lot of movement in the middle pack here. I'm mainly just disappointed at all these teams. I'm disappointed at all of you. [laughs] Especially the NFC teams, 'cause we brought this up yesterday.
42:45
Come into my office. I moved the Lions back up. I dropped the, the Eagles down. I moved the Packers back up. But you know what it is at the end of the day, Gil? Lions, Eagles, Packers, you should all be better than this.
42:56
I shouldn't be having my doubts and moving you around as much as- It's very true... much as I have. It's very true.
43:01
The Rams and Seahawks have so clearly separated themselves into their own tier, uh, um, uh, amongst these NFL, uh, NFC teams, and it's just these other three, I expect more. They're just disappointed. I'm not angry.
43:13
I'm just disappointed. Uh, Colts-... accomplishments, I'm gonna leave them at four, Gil. And then, yes, the Chiefs that I decided to punish very harshly last week, [laughs] I think I dropped them down to nine.
43:24
I'm moving them back up to five. Yeah, Chiefs, I, I can't really quit you either. So they're up to five. Eagles up, down to six. I have no idea what's going on with that football team. I have, I have no idea.
43:35
I, like, this is... What was that first half, and then what is that they end up losing that game to the Cowboys? It's wild, um, how inconsistent they've been just basically all year. Patriots at seven,
43:46
Packers eight, is what, how I st- uh, ordered things here at the end. Broncos nine, and Buffalo Bills all the way down to 10. Can't drop them out, but they're still 10 for me.
43:56
Hey, your, your love affair is coming to a- You're higher on the Bills than I am, Gil. You're crazy. Where do I have them, at eight? What did I have them, at eight? I think it was like eight or s- yeah. Yeah.
44:03
It stuck out to me. Seven or eight, something like that. No, not that high. I think eight. Yeah, eight. Two spots ahead of you. But they're, they're flimsy also, right? All those, I mean, the Bills are flimsy to me.
44:15
But all, eh, your disappointment is correct in all this. Yeah. I agree. That's sort of the headline of all this. Eagles, what are you? Which, which, which version are you? Lions, what's going on?
44:27
I thought you were as good as last year, but I guess you're not. And you had injuries last year, too, so I don't wanna use that as an excuse, right? Packers I just simply do not trust. Me either.
44:36
I mean- And the roster's disgustingly- Yeah... good. It's so good. And the Colts, did, did you peak already? I know. The one I should have asked, should have asked Drew. Texans are not completely out.
44:50
If you're a Texans believer this week like he is- He s- he seems to be very high on them, yes... you'll find seven or eight to one for them to win the division.
44:57
I trust them more than the Jaguars to get this, get that home if the Colts don't win it. Yeah.
45:01
I'm, I'm looking more forward than this power, I'm looking more forward to our make miss playoff things, 'cause I think there's a couple discussions to have in that, that we have sort of
45:09
taken for granted that I'm not sure we should. Um, who- Who's number 11 for you? I have the Niners at 11. I think I do, too. Yeah. Niners at 11. Trying to think, who else did we leave?
45:23
Bear- Bears, Bears, I don't, they're not 12 for me. Chris Heath on Twitter, or as Mac Dre would refer to it as the Valley Joe, talking about Vallejo. That's great. Yeah, Valley Joe.
45:33
This is also like Fremont is Freakmont. They got a whole bunch of stuff like that. San Francisco's the city. I don't know if you know that, and Oakland's the town. Gotta know these things, Kellen.
45:40
I d- no, that one I believe I did know. I, I've heard it before. Because I, because of the jerseys, 'cause of the jerseys for the Warriors- Yeah... you know that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Choosing- That's right...
45:47
choosing line value says, uh, The Real Cabezas, he says, "Gil, ask Kelly how to pronounce..." [laughs] You're gonna get me in trouble with one of these. Yeah.
45:54
Uh, "Ask Kelly how to pronounce M-A-R-T-I-N-E-Z," and I'm not from the Bay Area, but I know how to pronounce it. What, what was it? M-A-R-T-I-N-E-Z. Mar- Martinez. No, that one's actually Martinez.
46:08
[laughs] That's, that's- That one's normal. And Mark J. Wilson, I don't know what this is in reference to, but it has something to do with the Giants when we talked about the Giants.
46:15
Don't forget Russ had a healthy Malik Nabers and put those numbers up. Who does, who does Jameis have? Um, Wan- Wandale Robinson, Jalen, uh, Hyatt who can't run the right routes.
46:27
I don't know what that was in reference to, but he's- Me either... making, making a stand for Jameis over Russ sort of randomly. I did catch, did catch this earlier. Wandale Robinson, ninth in the NFL in receiving yards.
46:36
Jeez. Coming back, college hoops with Matty Cox next on The Numbers Game right here at Visa. [upbeat music]
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