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Nov 26, 2024
A Numbers Game | November 26, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | November 26, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:59
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers told the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:35
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It is Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bendlin, everybody, live from Circa.
0:47
How you doing, man? I'm doing well. We almost just, uh, had to hit the, the dump button the quickest in the, uh, in the history of VSiN. Oh, 'cause you were saying some stuff?
0:54
[laughs] Yeah, that, that show, that show really sneaks up on you, Gil, you know? [laughs] Gets in the way of your conversation that you're having. It really does, yeah.
1:01
Well, I'm glad you cleaned up your potty mouth before the show started. Yeah, I know. Sorry. I apologize. Jeez. Uh, good show. Drew Dinsick will join us, uh, pretty soon here, about 15 minutes away.
1:10
Drew Dinsick from, uh, both the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast from NBC Sports.
1:14
We'll talk NFL, week 12 gone by, week 13, all of his bets, uh, moving forward, including of course, uh, Thanksgiving and Black Friday games, which is, uh, it's that kind of week.
1:24
Didn't you love this week when you were in school when you were a kid, and it was, like, did you have half days on Wednesdays? Oh my God, yeah, so yes. It was the- I was having this discussion yesterday with someone.
1:33
None, none of these kids go to school anymore. That, that's what I'm learning. Like, like, I believe out here in Nevada the kids have, have the whole week off. Is that right? Yeah, the whole week. Oh, these kids.
1:43
And then it's like two- They're so soft... and then it's two weeks for, from Christmas through New Year's. Ugh. And then a week for spring break. That's what I told them yesterday.
1:50
I said, "I think I had a half day on Wednesday, and then Thursday, Friday off." Listen, I don't wanna sound like I'm 1,000 years old to start the show, but I'm 1,000 years old when it comes to this.
1:59
Yeah, no, it was a great week. The half day on Wednesday was fantastic. Football on F- on Thursday, of course we only had two games. Now they got three, they got the fourth on, uh, Friday.
2:07
So we'll talk to Drew about all that. Uh, we have Paul Carr talking Champions League coming up on the show. Futak is joining us, Pete Futak. I wanna get to the bottom of two things. You ready for this? Yeah.
2:17
Well, three things. One, who's the team that's getting the shaft in the college football playoff? That's a standard weekly question. We gotta ask him that again. How does he feel about it now?
2:24
Will one-loss Indiana get there, uh, or will they not? Will they, will some other team get, uh, screwed at the end? Uh, will, uh, we gotta talk Heisman.
2:36
Let me, let me talk Heisman first segment, too, 'cause I made a bet yesterday. We'll get to that. And in the Big- I'm involved... and in the Big 12, who's winning this thing?
2:43
You know how many Big 12 teams can still get to the Big 12 championship? How many? Nine. Are you serious? Four are in the driver's seat.
2:50
Well, two really, but four, um, are ahead of the field, but there's five others that, given a scenario, given a specific scenario, could still get there.
2:57
So are we like, are we definitely having tiebreakers come into play? Not definitely.
3:01
Well, I mean, there's, uh, there's tiebreakers that will come into play, but they could get more convoluted if thr- if at least three of the four top teams get- Right...
3:11
l- lose, which is unlikely, by the way, 'cause everybody's a big favorite among those four except for, uh, Iowa State. It's only a three-point favorite against, uh, Kansas State. Anyway, we'll get into him with that.
3:19
And then maybe, I don't know, I love everybody on the show, but Jake Benzaquen is joining us. Phew. Jake is one of the, in case you missed this yesterday, so there's 54 remaining Circa Survivor entries.
3:30
Each entry, uh, has the intrinsic value currently of $264,000 plus. Is that good going into Thanksgiving? It's pretty good. Yeah, it's not bad. Uh, only four people have two entries. Nobody has more than two entries.
3:43
Only four people have two, which means 46 people have one entry to their name, and four others have two to their name. Jake is one of the ones with one. Uh, he is also the co-founder of ProphetX.
3:53
We had him on a few weeks ago, so we are not a jinx. We've established that.
3:57
And, uh, I think Jake actually put out a poll yesterday on his Twitter, "Hey, uh, if you were in my position, would you talk about this stuff, or would you kind of sweat it in silence?"
4:05
And sweat it in silence won- [laughs]... and he's still coming on the show, so he doesn't care about his poll results when we get to that. I don't know. You said that to me.
4:12
I- [laughs] I think I'd, I'd have to cancel Thanksgiving. Like, literally, at this point- Oh, yeah... I would need to be in a bunker by myself, like- Here it is, here it is right here. Yeah.
4:20
Jake, Jake, "Not one person in my family is a sports b- is a sports bettor.
4:23
If you had Circa Sports Survivor entry available this Thanksgiving," like he does, "would you sweat in silence or open Pandora's box by talking about the entry? I've truly never been more conflicted.
4:32
No one talks about this part of the sweat." Sweat in silence won 64.2% to 35.8%, and he's still coming on, baby. But, but, but this is, I, or maybe I read it wrong. Sweat in silence around your family, right?
4:43
Like, this is go through Thanksgiving like you don't have anything- Yeah... massive on the line, right? Well, I g- I guess that's what it mean, but, means, but what I took it to mean is a- Well, let's clarify...
4:52
general silence of, yeah, like, but you're not gonna talk about it on Thanksgiving. Like, don't come on a national radio show- [laughs]... and talk about it, right?
4:58
But Jake, [laughs] Jake is coming on anyway, so we look forward to that. I just can't imagine, like, preparing Thanksgiving and someone has a crit- a critique over your potato peeling or something. Like, I'd lose it.
5:08
I'd l- absolutely lose it. Oh, yeah. Good for him. Good for everybody who's still in this, in what was the most carnage-filled Survivor ever through the first five weeks.
5:16
Of course, we start tonight, or today, pardon me, don't even know where I am, uh, with the game last night between the Ravens and the Chargers. I mentioned yesterday, Kelly, I was on the, uh, Ravens big. It worked out.
5:27
Yeah. Worked out for me. Uh, this was the only game I loved on guessing lines, not this Monday, but last Monday as well. Mm-hmm. Uh, I, I had guessed Ravens by four.
5:35
It was two, and you said it was moving towards three at that time. It ended up settling at two and a half all week. Ravens get it done 30 to 23.
5:43
That last touchdown by the Chargers ends up being cosmetic, uh, from 30-16 to 30 to 23. But make no mistake, the Chargers did lead this game early. They led it 10 to nothing. Um,
5:55
and then the R- the Ravens just sort of dominated from that point forward. But let me just f- key in on one thing, 'cause we don't usually give these the guessing lines treatment, uh, for the Monday night games.
6:04
But the one thing I do wanna focus in on, for, well, a couple things. I'll get to the thing I wanna focus in on momentarily. But just generally speaking- This doesn't change my thinking about the Ravens one iota.
6:13
It doesn't change my thinking about the Chargers one iota. Uh, the Ravens still to me are the, you know, I have them power ranked second in the NFL behind the Lions.
6:21
I've had them that way for pretty much the entire season almost. Um, at least they've been top three the entire season. And the Chargers, look, the Chargers are basically the Commodores of the N- of the AFC, right?
6:35
They're the commanders of the AFC. And what I mean by that is, here are the Chargers' wins this year, and this is part of the handicap. They've beaten the Raiders, the Panthers, the Broncos.
6:44
Okay, I'll give them the Broncos game, right? Yeah. The Saints, the Browns, the Titans, and the Bengals. Those are their wins. Their losses? Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Arizona, and Baltimore.
6:54
So, you know, it kind of, as cleanly as, as probably possible, just falls on who are you playing with the Chargers?
7:02
In the same way that it does with the, with the Commanders, with the exception obviously of losing to Dallas this week. Basically, they beat all the bad teams, and they just fall short against all the good teams.
7:11
And so, uh, Commodores, by the way, seven and five. The, the Chargers are seven and four, uh, in the AFC, and right now still inside the playoff picture.
7:19
But I don't know that it changed anything for you either, did it, with either of these two teams? No, not at all.
7:23
I, I, this is, I, [laughs] I mean, we are very far into the season for me to feel like I don't, still don't have a strong grasp on what this Chargers team is.
7:32
And like you said, I don't think that got cleared up at all last night. I, I, they showed enough fight that I think it helps back up a little bit of what their, what their record is and what they've done.
7:42
Um, like you said, they were fi- they were feisty at least early in this game.
7:45
But, uh, yeah, uh, then the Ravens, uh, the Ravens and that offense wakes up in the second half, and it looks, when it is rolling, it looks good. It looks like the best thing in the NFL.
7:54
Yeah, and look, they, uh, I think what else, you know, what are the other two betting implications of this? I think the Ravens solidify themselves.
8:01
I know the Steelers got to be the favorite in the AFC North for a minute. Uh, they always had the gauntlet in front of them. That gauntlet still remains.
8:08
The Ravens were always, to me, the, uh, the team that ought to be the favorite. They are once again the favorite in the AFC North, uh, are the Ravens. Um, it's no indictment of the Steelers.
8:18
It's just kind of the real pecking order. I think people lost their minds a little bit about the Steelers.
8:22
And then when it comes to MVP, which we discussed yesterday, where after Saquon's amazing 255-yard rushing day, over 300 yards from scrimmage, there were some folks, uh, obviously not some folks, but the market moved on Saquon, not only to a prohibitive favorite for Offensive Player of the Year, which he should be, but it also moved him to the third shortest shot on the MVP board, just behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
8:43
Lamar Jackson last night, 16 of 22 for 177, two touchdowns, no picks. On the season, 27 touchdowns and three picks. It's incredible. I don't know how you don't give him this at this point. Okay. I really don't.
8:57
So I have, I mean, I have not gotten involved. Have we bet, w- did you bet Purdy, when did you, did you bet Purdy earlier in the year? Never bet Purdy this year. Okay, okay. No.
9:06
So I bet him early in the, earlier in the year, and then I had Anthony [laughs] Richardson preseason. I, I think, uh, I'm gonna be getting involved with Lamar at, at, at some point here.
9:15
'Cause you're right, it's, uh, the numbers are absurd. I, it just feels like we're gonna be having the same Nikola Jokic conversation with him of just we don't wanna give him three at this point.
9:26
Well, but Jokic was three in a row, which had historical impact. By the way, now that you asked me the Purdy question, I'm sort of thinking about it. I'm like, "Did I bet Purdy this year?"
9:32
[laughs] I can't even remember anymore. Maybe I did. Um, no, the, the Jokic com- the Jokic conversation was three in a row, right? Right. Because it was Wilt, Larry Bird, and Bill Russell. Do I have those three right?
9:43
Were the only three guys to ever have three in a row. Pretty sure you are correct. Um, and so it was this thing of do we wanna put Jokic in that rare air?
9:50
And so this isn't quite the same thing, but 27 touchdowns and three picks, that's not to mention all of his rushing, right, as well. Uh, and I get it. Josh Allen's great.
10:00
If you take him off the Bills, what are the Bills? So I'm with you on that, too. You can make a case. I'm not saying you can't. He's awesome. He's awesome. I mean, it's me. Gil, it's me sitting here saying- Yeah...
10:09
I would give it to Lamar Jackson over Josh Allen right now. Yeah. And you, uh, uh, there's no bigger Josh Allen fan than me.
10:13
But, but I think the Aaron Schatz thing about MVP gonna, is gonna go to a quarterback and Saquon's gonna get or so- or some non-quarterback will get the, uh, Offensive Player of the Year.
10:21
I think I lean towards that thinking. Um, the other, the p- the point I did wanna make about this game last night beyond that is I'm just so tired of the anti-analytics crowd that I have to point this out.
10:32
Last night, the Ravens were three of three on fourth down. The Chargers were two of two on fourth down.
10:37
Now, the reason I bring it up, because not every fourth down is a analytics go, but the anti-analytic community always, when it doesn't work, always blames analytics, right?
10:45
So last night, 10 to 7, with seven 48, w- w- with, uh, what is it? 10 to 7 with two minutes left in the half, the Ravens have fourth and inches at their own 16, and they get it. They go for it, and they get it.
10:58
And that leads to a touchdown drive a few, you know, several plays later to put them up 14 to 10 at that point.
11:04
Uh, not to mention that they got two consecutive fourth down conversions later in the game on a touchdown drive. Chargers got a fourth down, uh, conversion earlier than a fourth down on the, uh, garbage drive late.
11:14
But my point is, is that the anti-analytics community, you won't hear a peep out of them today about these, right? 'Cause they have set up the conversation that only when they don't work do they get to talk about it.
11:25
Yeah. Right? So it's like, it's great to set up a, a, a debate or an argument, quote unquote, where you're going to find yourself right 100% of the time because you, you, you analyze the results, right?
11:37
And by the way, their counter might be like, "Yeah, well, Gil, the Ravens have Derrick Henry." They didn't run Derrick Henry on the fourth and inches from their own 16. That was Mark Andrews.
11:45
So it gave you plenty of opportunity to have your retroactive analysis of that kind of thing.
11:50
So to the anti-analytics community, that game, that outcome of that game doesn't happen unless the Ravens do what they did yesterday. Oh, probably. And, uh, man, I was, I was uncomfortable with some of it.
12:02
[laughs] It was very aggressive by John Harbaugh. I'm just, I just, somebody has to point that out. Yeah, yeah. That they, they don't say anything- Nothing, no... when this goes, when th- when it works out this way.
12:10
But oh, chirpy when it doesn't. Drew Dincic on the other side. It's a numbers game at Vsiz, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Want to bet smarter?
12:26
Start with smarter insights from expert breakdowns of the week's biggest match-ups to deep dives into betting strategies and trends. VSiN delivers the kind of actionable content that gives you the edge.
12:35
Right now you can check out articles like, check this out, Kelly, "Greg Peterson's College Basketball Best Bets." That alone should take you to vsin.com.
12:43
Yeah, Adam Burke's Week 14 College Football Rankings Projection, uh, we get another iteration of that tonight, and then Toledo-Akron Match and Preview.
12:51
Later today you can check out Zach Cohen's NBA Best Bets, Steve Makinen's NBA Analytics Report, and Jonathan Davis' Top NHL Player Props.
12:58
You get access to everything we do, including these exclusive articles for only $60 until May 1st, 2025 with our Black Friday special. Head over to vsin.com/subscribe today. Uh, we get tweets at Betting The Books.
13:10
Wanna read a couple here. This is, uh, from Russ Hardin, "We were the same way back in the day, half a day on Wednesday Thanksgiving week. Then was there a better day in your 20s than Wednesday night at the bars?
13:19
Used to be one of my favorite days of the year." Well, that makes one of us, Russ. Oh, yeah, it is- I know about that... still one of the best. Yeah, in your 20s for sure.
13:26
That's when you catch up with everybody from, like, high school, college. What's with, what's with Wednesdays though? Why Wednesdays? Like, 'cause everybody's in town, like all... Right?
13:32
If you're at home for Thanksgiving, everybody's back home, so you catch up with some people from high school. Hmm, okay.
13:37
Dgen Southern Gent, "While perusing this week's NFL slate, I noticed a crazy scheduling quirk with Carolina.
13:42
Panthers don't play a road game in November, and between November 3rd and December 29th they play one road game. I feel like that's a scheduling advantage no one is talking about."
13:52
I'll tell you another one, Dgen Southern Gent, is, uh, the Eagles don't have to jump on a plane anymore the rest of the regular season. Oh, that's nice. I think their only two road games are Baltimore or Washington.
14:05
I don't know, I don't know what these NFL players do on short trips like that, but I'm thinking it's not a tr- it's not a plane from Philly. That's a great question. Anyway, they don't have to is the point.
14:14
I mean, so there's no big travel for the Eagles the rest of the way. Show me the luxury bus setup. That's what I wanna see. You're right. Hmm. Uh, Jack Cannon. I'm a, I'm a Ron Burgundy through this.
14:23
Jack Cannon, "Could this be the worst wager ever? Last week Dave Portnoy, Barstool, bet 100,000 on Alabama to win the national championship, pay off 1.1 million.
14:31
After Saturday's loss, he essentially lost 100K on games that won't be played." Yeah, I don't, I don't know if he notices 100K though. Does he? Yeah, I don't think so. I'm not sure. Yeah. Made headlines.
14:39
Um, he- We just talked about it... let's bring Drew in here. It's like news.
14:41
[laughs] Drew, Drew Dincic joins us, uh, f- uh, Whale Capper, Whale_Capper on Twitter, and of course, uh, the co-host of both the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast from NBC Sports, joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
14:52
Drew, before we get to your, uh, wisdom, Kelly, uh, used to work in, uh, South Florida. Uh, explain what you did in South Florida. What was your- Oh, we, we did a, uh...
15:00
I- I did a afternoon radio show on ESPN West Palm there, and then we also, I was the executive producer for the local sports department for, uh, WPTV News Channel 5.
15:10
So you might have seen a high school highlight of Lamar Jackson going around last night. Here's a play. The old Boynton Beach Bricks. Jackson sprinting around the pocket. What to do? Recognize the voice at all, Kelly?
15:20
Oh, now you can talk, Kelly. [laughs] Oh, there we go. Throw on the brakes. There he goes. [laughs] Well, Stu Sanbury's shooting it. He's been on the network before. Emerson Lotzia was calling it.
15:29
We've had him on the show before. Oh, that was Emerson. He was anchoring- Oh, okay... yeah, that night. So yeah. Wow. The old Boynton Breaks from Lamar Jackson. Um, every y- can you...
15:37
Would you have imagined he would've been this good? Uh, at that time just if, if everybody remembers his early college days, it was, okay, he's special on a football field. Yeah. Can he play quarterback though?
15:48
I mean, we covered him in high school. He was overthrowing wide receivers by 20 yards. It was, it, it was a problem in high school. People were still doubting him at Louisville- Yep... for God sakes. Uh- Yeah...
15:55
and of course the NFL draft doubted him- Yep... when he went 32nd. Drew is, uh, here. Yeah. Drew, uh, that game last night, I'll ask you what we talked about.
16:03
Change your opinion at all on either team, the Ravens or the Chargers? A little bit on the Chargers.
16:08
Or not changed opinion, but sort of crystallized my opinion of that defense I think, which is they're completely capable of snuffing out, um, the, uh, the lesser quarterbacks and the lesser offenses- Mm-hmm, mm-hmm...
16:22
[laughs] in the NFL. And then when they come up against a, a dynamic two-headed attack it gets a little bit different.
16:27
Um, certainly the fact that they, uh, they were not fully healthy did not help them, but, uh, you know, that, this is now two in a row where they've gone up against the elite top five quarterbacks in the NFL and, uh, given up 30 points.
16:38
So, uh, I think, I think we got our answer on exactly how to view the Chargers' defense. Chargers offense is exactly who we thought they were.
16:48
Um, good offensive line, but young, and make, you know, still prone to making some back-breaking mistakes us- you know, via, via penalty mostly. Um, good quarterback, but not elite.
16:59
Uh, and pass catchers that are wildly suspect. And uh, I think if there was not, um, you know, a healthy amount of, uh, um,
17:09
you know, handsiness from the [laughs], uh, secondary from the Ravens, uh, I'm not even sure it was this close.
17:14
So, uh, it, uh, yeah, I mean, the Chargers are kind of, they, like, are the quintessential AFC wild card team where, you know, uh, best of luck against the elites in the playoffs, guys. Yeah.
17:25
I th- I think most people think that. I wanna rewind on one thing you said in there though, and I agree with you. Like, Quentin Johnston, three drops last night. Oh, gosh. Three. I mean, brutal.
17:34
One, o- one of them that basically ended the game for the Chargers. Yep. Yeah. Um- Yeah... you said something about Justin Herbert in there that I don't wanna let slide. You said, "Good quarterback, not elite."
17:43
You believe that? Yeah, I think you can squarely...
17:45
Like, you know, if, if you w- if y- there are a lot of people who kind of go out of their way to kind of make a case that he should be concluded in the same breaths of the, you know, the, the Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrows of the world, and I think it's pretty clear he's on the next tier.
18:00
And that's not bad. [laughs] I mean, a much better place to be in than, oh, I don't know, the Giants. [laughs] You know?
18:05
Like, there's plenty of other franchises who would take not elite quarterback play [laughs] if it looked like Justin Herbert.
18:12
Um, but that said, uh, you know, I think I, I'm t- I, I, I guess the next time he goes toe-to-toe with, uh, you know, one of the top guys and really outperforms them, I'll let you know Yeah, I, I don't know.
18:23
I mean, w- we did our quarterback rankings early in the season. Bef- maybe even before the season started This was a conversation we had preseason... and this was a conversation. Yeah.
18:31
And I put him at eighth, and my c- There you go... and my comment- Put it in pen. [laughs] I, I, I should've put it in pen. But my comment was, right, he's eighth.
18:40
My comment was he's about a year away, I said this exactly, about a year away from this dropping more.
18:47
And what I meant by that was there was a lot of games when he had, you know, Ekeler and Allen and Williams, and I know, you know, maybe th- maybe that hasn't aged well for any of those three guys.
18:58
But I think it's a better outfit than he has around him now in terms of skill position players. Um, he, he was, he got them, I- my comment was he got them to a lot of close finishes, and it was a lot of it was him.
19:11
But when they got to those last drives, he was often poor on those last drives, and you can't have that happen over and over again before you start to say, "Okay, this is kind of who he is." Now, I will say this.
19:23
I said he was a year away from, from dropping from that. I actually think better of him now than I did then. Like, I think, like, last night, I can't blame any of that on Justin Herbert.
19:32
Justin Herbert, what I thought was pretty awesome last night, and I think he's been pretty awesome most of the year. So I do think that w- would you, would you allow this?
19:41
That even if he is the next tier, the potential for elite is i- is right there. Like, he does have all the, all the tools.
19:50
I guess if, yeah, but at this point with what you're paying him and the way that they've elected to kind of build the roster, I don't know that you're ever gonna see him with the, the, the tools that would take him- Maybe...
20:00
to that level. Maybe. Um, and I think, I guess kind of my, I, and I get what your point was about preseason, and I felt the same way. Like, going in, rating him at the, in, in the 6 to 10 range, like, that was correct.
20:12
Everybody who was kind of putting him eighth, like, you were right. Yeah. Yeah.
20:16
Um, but there was a trap door, and the trap door was largely because I think in his ear- you know, early part of his career, he was propped up by the kind of tail end of a great Keenan Allen career, and, you know, that, and it made, maybe made him look a little bit better than he was early.
20:31
Um, and then even more than that, a lot of the stuff that he, uh, was using to kind of really kind of the eye-popping stuff, the wow, how did that happen? It was, you know, it was s- not sustainable.
20:43
You know, it was long third down conversions. It was C.J. Stroud-esque, honestly. Um, and, uh, w- that hasn't really gone away.
20:51
[laughs] That's just kind of, you know, you, you looked at the numbers, you looked at the data, and you're like, I mean, it's good, but, like,
20:58
we had never seen a quarterback sustain these types of rates on these, you know, third and, third and forevers. If, if he does it, I guess that's who he is, and he's good.
21:06
But, you know, there, there was a, a sincere belief that, um, that could just come to an end. And, uh, if he's not getting those long, you know, third down conversions and all, then what is he?
21:17
Um, because he's not a guy that's necessarily capable of crossing the street, uh, uh, you know, 30 times to get to the end zone. Um, and I, I think we've kind of answered that he is still a, a volatile proposition.
21:28
Like, he is capable of delivering an absolute dime on fourth and nine, you know, when the game is, you know, a- already kind of out of reach. But at the same time, like, you know, when you need him to, um, I don't know.
21:40
He made a great pass to Quinton Johnson, and Quinton Johnson- Yeah...
21:43
didn't catch it, and that would've, that would've, that would've potentially been the game-tying drive for the, uh, Chargers, and then they give up the big 51-yard touchdown.
21:51
So, you know, a lot of this is a little bit of kind of results-based, uh, bias, I suppose.
21:55
But, um, it just, it can't be an accident that every time he goes up against a Mahomes, an Allen, a, you know, a Jackson, a Burrow, you know, I mean, he beat Burrow, but, you know, that was mostly [laughs] I feel like about the Bengals defense in the end.
22:08
Like, a, a pretty spectacular run to cap it for the, uh, Chargers on their 10th opportunity to win that game. Um, but, uh, you know, it, it, it's more fragile.
22:17
Whereas with Mahomes, you know, even if they're having a bad day, if they have the ball last, you kind of assume he's gonna win. He, he just never catches the criticism, right?
22:25
Like, what you said, Gil, is almost, uh, I agree with. I think this year I almost look at him higher than I have before. I do. I do.
22:32
But it's for all these quarterbacks that catch so much heat, a- a- and he's never one of them when he's never accomplished anything in the playoffs. A- and I, I just agree.
22:41
I think we need to start thinking about him a little bit differently. We should have a couple years ago. Whereas, uh, whereas Tua, they were drafted back to back, right? Tua, who is wildly accurate. Mm.
22:51
It's, it's the opposite of what you're saying. I'm not saying he's as good as Justin Herbert, but what I'm saying is any criticism that can possibly be thrust on him is thrust on him. Yes. Mm-hmm. Right, there is that.
23:00
Uh, I do think Justin Herbert, uh, is a lot more elusive in the pocket this year, has a little more- True... run to him, so I like that as well. All of Drew's week 13 picks in the NFL on the other side.
23:09
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23:52
I might be there too, Gil. Tooley. I might be there. Tooley, Burke, Seidenberg, poker. Like it. Are you gonna do it? Yeah. Yeah. I might, I might be there Sunday night. Kelly Biddy- I might be there...
24:02
Kelly Biddle likes himself a little poker. Oh, he used to play a ton of poker, yeah. Mm. He used to play a ton. Kelly, Kelly Biddle likes himself a little blackjack, a little poker. What else you playing these days?
24:10
Mm, I mean, not nearly as much poker these days. You play, you play video poker as well though? Yeah, video poker, blackjack, yeah. Oh, you're that kind of guy.
24:17
Those are, th- those are more, like, recreational I have a cocktail in my hand j- uh, gambling though. [laughs] Always with a cocktail. We got tweets beating book.
24:24
Michael Burns, "Wednesday before Thanksgiving is, uh, AKA Skanksgiving," he says. [laughs] "If you know, you know." [laughs] Best listeners in the game, everybody.
24:35
Best listeners in the game Yeah, I wasn't gonna go that far last segment, but yeah. [laughs] I don't know if you can also, you can also say that and then write, "If you know, you know," right?
24:43
[laughs] If you know, you know. Roger Jones tweets it. Remember Roger Jones was the guy yesterday who was like, "Hey Gil, you watched that Steve McNair thing over the weekend, didn't you?" Oh, oh- Right?
24:51
Without even asking me. Well, he creeped me out a little bit 'cause I did watch the Steve McNair, the Air McNair documentary Yeah. What's he got today? What, did he see a gas station or something yesterday?
25:00
So he tweets in, he, he tweets in, he goes, "Kelly, need your advice here.
25:02
Should I lean into the stalker vibe, uh, with, as of yesterday and say, uh, that, 'Gil, I checked your account, and yes, you had a Purdy ticket?'" [laughs] That's, uh, uh- [laughs] This is from One- Oh, man...
25:11
this is from One Loss From Retirement. I'm gonna have to heavily edit One Loss From Retirement's tweet.
25:16
Uh, he says, "I knir- I know Drew isn't," insert, "crapping on Herbert 'cause Johnston can't catch and a blank guy named Ladd is his number one target.
25:26
Let's give the guy another year under Harbaugh to get some pass catchers." Um, well- Let's g- let's keep giving him another year, Gil. [laughs] Let's just keep giving him another year.
25:34
And- This guy, by the time he's 38, he's gonna be great. Watch out And Rich PSM, "I'm not for, uh, for or against analytics. I'm for considering who you are and who you're playing.
25:42
You can't give equal weight to a call versus Kansas City and versus the Giants, and that's not even a slight difference." Rich, I'm right with you. I'm with you, but that's not my point.
25:50
My point is, is that the anti-alynic, uh, uh, anti-analytics folks are completely results oriented. They love to chirp about it when first of all, they don't...
25:59
First of all, the anti-analytics community has no clue what is analytics based and what isn't. That's the first layer. Mm. Right? So they just catchall with analytics, and here's their catchall.
26:08
When something doesn't work that's out of their construct of how you play football, then they go nuts, but when it does work, right, 14 to eight, down to six on the twos, uh, going for fourth and short three times last, uh, yesterday for the Ravens, you don't hear a peep.
26:25
Not a peep. That's the point. Um, ladies and gentlemen, back for another segment as he always is, Drew Dincic @whale_capper courtesy of the Progressive guest line. All right, Drewsky.
26:35
[laughs] By the way, I'm j- I'm shocked that people who aren't intellectually, uh, honest are, uh, are, are, are confirming their priors only- Yeah. [laughs]... uh, with their platforms.
26:45
This is, I'm, this is very surprising. [laughs] I knew, I knew you'd see it my way. [laughs] Um, all right, let's get to week 13, which obviously starts...
26:53
Let's, let's start with, well, let's, before we even get to Sunday, let's start with Thanksgiving and Friday- Yeah... as a, as a quartet of games.
27:00
And obviously from a fan's perspective, these are not, uh, let's just say the, the most sexy games of all of them, but there are spreads, and so there is betting. Do you like any of these?
27:09
[sighs] Standalone game is a standalone game. Yes it is. Uh, I got, I got a couple, uh, I got a couple plays. Uh, I think that 10 and a, I up, I've up- I've capitulated a lot about my Lions number.
27:21
I've upgraded their defense to being top 10 despite not really understanding how they're getting away with this. Um, and I still can't get to 10 and a half for this game against the Bears.
27:30
My number is 8.9, uh, so 10 and a half for me in pocket with the early game there. Um, and I think, uh, the total also is quite high. Uh, 48 and a half is, is screaming high. Uh, I make this more like 44 and a half.
27:45
Uh, so probably gonna end up with a little bit of under in pocket as well. I'm not sure exactly how to take that on.
27:50
But, you know, you got a Bears team that played, uh, their divisional opponents quite, quite, um, close twice last year with a worse team as far as I can tell you, so, uh, I think that should be a competitive, uh, opener.
28:01
Uh, and then, uh, nothing in Dallas-Giants, although the fact that this Dallas team could be more than a field goal favorite against anyone kind of s- Mm... baffles me.
28:11
Um, the, uh, the night cap, uh, is the fun one obviously. Um, I played some under here, largely because I think that the threes are not gonna show for, uh, for the Packers.
28:22
It looked with a little bit of early market momentum for the Dolphins yesterday morning. I was kind of dreaming of getting a, a flat three. Didn't ever show up, so, uh, just, uh, gave up and played the under there.
28:34
Uh, I think the, uh, the real feel six degree temperatures at Lambeau Field's gonna have a little bit of an impact on offensive efficiency in this one.
28:41
Um, you know, this is, uh, w- whenever you look at the, uh, the weather and you see six degree, you know what I think of, Gil? Mm. It s- sounds like Dolphin weather to me.
28:49
[laughs] That's exactly- Um [laughs] That was exactly my handicap yesterday, Drew. Yeah. And I did, I did bet the Packers minus three. That was exactly the biggest thing for me.
28:58
[laughs] I was like, "Hmm, Tom Coughlin's cheeks." I get it, he doesn't b- he wasn't the coach of the Dolphins, but Tom Coughlin's cheeks is the first thing I think of- [laughs]...
29:04
and then I think about the Dolphins in cold weather. Yeah, yeah. See- Are you guys saying Tua can't play well in the cold? Mm. Have, have we talked about this before? [laughs] We have not specifically.
29:14
He has, he has had okay games in the cold, but he has also had games where he was non-functional, most notably last year's- Yeah... uh, playoff game against the Chiefs.
29:22
Now, granted, that was, like, probably real feel minus 26, but, uh, still it was, uh, it does not, did not cover himself in glory.
29:29
And y- you know, it just, like, people, there are h- there are ways to handicap where you are just flat out numbers based and you are beating the market, and that's fine.
29:38
But the qualitative layer of stuff like a team from Miami going to play in six degrees matters. It does. It does. [laughs] I will go to a- It does...
29:45
a qualitative, a qualitative layer, like the Giants were just told by their coach that they're quitting on the season because they're starting [laughs] Tommy DeVito. Kind of matters. That matters.
29:54
Like, it impacts effort. It does. Yeah. You're putting your body on the line. Like, you know, you, there's, there's real risks to your l- health and long, you know, your longevity on this earth.
30:03
And if you're not [laughs] going out there to win, it changes your, your, uh, your, your interest in playing hard.
30:10
So, um, you know, there's, there's, uh, there are funny things that matter a lot this time of year when it comes to NFL betting, and, uh, I, I think, um, uh, in general, under 47 is the, the fun angle to attack there.
30:21
And I g- I guess I'll just mention, as much as, you know, it's fun to knock on the Dolphins and Tua for an offense is really kind of the focus of that part of the handicap there, the d- the Dolphins defense is playing really, really well right now.
30:32
Um, they have come completely out of the clouds and, uh, are kind of surpassing my wildest expectations of what to expect right now. Uh, eighth right now in EPA per play allowed, uh, when you remove turnovers.
30:44
I, I, I did not see that coming. Um, and, uh, they're relatively healthy, so, uh, I think they can keep the, uh, a little bit of a lid on the scoring there, which helps, helps me into this 47.
30:54
Anything Raiders Chiefs, 13-point spread on Friday? I would take your money that you want to bet on that game, and I would bet, uh, I'd bet a little Pat Mahomes MVP. Ooh. Pat Mahomes MVP- Yes...
31:04
is, uh, is, that's the Bl- that's the Black Friday special, uh, Gil. Um- That's the Black Friday special... 12 to one. Yeah. If you wanna tell me that there is not a dead similar... I know, and I get it.
31:16
Like, it, it, I'm not pattern betting here. I'm not trying to just relive history. But Pat Mahomes is, is literally walking in the footsteps of Lamar Jackson's MVP from last season.
31:26
His defense carried him to a bunch of early season wins when his numbers really didn't support anywhere close to an MVP candidacy, and now he's putting together better performances while the defense is slipping a little bit.
31:36
And I think the message is pretty clear from that Carolina game. Like, the Chiefs offense needs to go out and score 30 if they're gonna continue to win games. The rest of their schedule is very, very soft.
31:45
Uh, they have a number of teams that are not playing for anything, and a number of teams where they have a huge advantage in standalone games.
31:53
And if you're winning your Christmas, your standalone Christmas Saturday, and your standalone Christmas Day game against the likes of the Texans and the, the, uh, Steelers, teams that I think we all agree have enormous questions right now.
32:06
Like, you know, beat those, you know, beat those teams, get to 16 wins, and I think there is a realistic chance that all the other quarterbacks will have accrued losses to good teams or just have off days.
32:17
And if Mahomes is playing clean football, you know, uh, this, this is conditional on him continuing to throw touchdowns, you know, have, you know- But-...
32:24
sort of these three, three zero type of games, I think he's real to coming into that, um, that, that, uh, that award market.
32:29
Let me step in, 'cause we have to do this rapid fire, 'cause I wanna get some of your Sunday thoughts. But- Mm...
32:33
but the r- the real quick retort to that is w- I'm, I'm not even gonna get into the other players' candidacies. Lamar with 27 touchdowns and three picks. Sure. Not gonna get into that. He, he deserves it, but- Yeah...
32:42
he's, he's also gonna have a tough time getting... He, he's, he's not gonna, he, he doesn't have a clean path into the playoffs.
32:48
If the Chiefs go 15 and two, is it more likely, in your opinion, that Mahomes gets MVP or that Andy Reid gets Coach of the Year? And will it- Mahomes MVP. Really? Okay. Absolutely.
32:59
I think Dan Campbell is got the, he's got the trump card over Andy Reid in every which way, and most l- notably, he's had an arc. Andy Reid has already won the award.
33:08
Like, there are a lot of things that I think kind of point to Reid's pretty mu- Ah... Reid needed 17 and oh. I think, I think it's, I think it's over for him. Favorite play on Sunday or Monday, sir, is?
33:18
I don't have a ton. I bet the Rams at two and a half, and I bet the Colts at three. Uh, everything Sunday and Monday looks pretty darn tight to me. Cleveland on Monday is actually a fun bet as well.
33:28
I, I make that well under three. Yeah, we're gonna talk Survivor with Jake Bensequin coming up. He's one of the, uh, 54 r- rema- he has one of the 54 remaining entries.
33:36
And I'm right with you, 'cause there's the Thanksgiving- Ooh... there's the Thursday, Friday portion of this week. God.
33:40
He's gotta get through that, which I'm, I'm sure, I'm not sure, I shouldn't say, I think he has set up. I would assume he has set up.
33:47
But when it comes to Sunday, Monday, which is, what, 13B if you will, when it comes to Circus Survivor, God help everybody. Absolutely, uh, agree with what you're saying. Always interesting, Drew. I appreciate it, man.
33:59
Hey, best of luck to you guys. You too. Drew Dincic, everybody, @whale_capper. Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast. We'll come back, a little Heisman talk next.
34:07
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35:00
[clears throat] Jesse Welch, "I said this to, uh, Will Hill earlier, so I'm recycling here, but I'm fairly confident that Will Levis is the second coming of Jameis Winston in Tampa." There you go. That's a take.
35:12
I, I mean, yeah, he, he has very, very much Jameis vibes. Why do you think I liked him when he was coming out? [laughs] Absolutely. It's gunslinger vibes, right? Il- Let it fly.
35:20
Il-advised Billy Levis will then hit some big play. It's exactly what you're talking about with Jameis, right? And then you're like, "Oh my God, he's good. Oh, there it is." Well, we've talked about it.
35:28
I'll, I'll take it a step fur- We, you and I were talking about it off the air yesterday.
35:31
It's gotten to the point where I think we're g- just gonna keep bouncing back and forth with Levis and Anthony Richardson, where one week you're like, "This kid's got some skills. Watch out. He could get good here."
35:41
And then the next week you're like, "Oh, never mind. He's back to, uh, throwing two interceptions and doing nothing." [laughs] I n- I need Levis to throw more INTs.
35:49
That's still, still the future I've been the most excited about from the preseason to now. He finally got back in the lineup, but I've got him, like, 24 to one to have the most interceptions.
35:58
Shout out to Dustin Sweetolson. Uh, Ja- Found that here, sir... JasonH11, uh, there's a rock history, uh, tweet from someone. "In your opinion, what's the best Bob Seger song?"
36:06
And he said, "Well, you two are the experts from our time at The D." [laughs] I'm gonna go with that slow jam we've got tonight. Yeah, you, you, you always brought that up. Ah, it's the jam.
36:15
But they never played that at The D. They n- nah. No. Yeah. Daytime Degenerate, "Hey Gil, we also saw the Ravens go for two up seven." Oh, yes, good point. Oh, yeah, yeah.
36:23
Uh, so it's 17 to 16 Ravens third quarter, 17 to 16. This is the drive where they, they converted two fourth downs, right? Fourth and inches at their own 39, right?
36:35
Everybody's focused on the own 16 one, which we were earlier. But fourth and inches from their own 39, Henry for 27.
36:43
Then later, and Joe Buck even said, "Well, if you went for fourth down on your, uh, fourth and inches at your third, at your own 39, you gotta go for it here at your, at the, uh, Chargers' 25."
36:50
They did again, Henry for two, and then five plays later it was Lamar to Mark Andrews from six out.
36:55
Remember, that was the touchdown where the ref was trying e- everything he could to say it wasn't a touchdown when he had two feet and a booty cheek on the- What, what were with these, these refs this weekend?
37:04
I have no idea. Anyway. A.J. Brown first and that one. Like, what? Anyway, it was, it, so that made it 23 to 16, so they're up seven, and they decided to go for two.
37:15
On our little text, me, Will, Falica, Todd, and Fezzik, we were divided on this. Uh, Falica hated that they went for two there. Me and Will didn't have a problem with it. [laughs] You know what's, you know what's funny?
37:28
I was, I was more uncomfortable with some of the fourth down decisions earlier. I would not, I would've, I would've just kicked the extra point, but I didn't ha- I didn't have a huge problem with it.
37:37
I didn't have a huge problem with it. I, a, a situation like that where you get a chance to basically shut the door completely on the Chargers, I don't, I don't have a problem go, uh, going for the kill.
37:45
As Will pointed, Will said it this way. He goes, "You're really making a decision. Do you wanna... 'Cause if you go up eight, then you might have to just defend a two-point conversion."
37:55
So you're, you're basically deciding, do you wanna be on offense on a two-point conversion, or do you wanna be on defense? That's a good way of putting it. It's, it's an interesting way of putting it. Yeah. Yeah.
38:02
I didn't have a problem with it because if you get it, now they didn't, by the way. It bounced off Zay's hands. Um, but I'd never, I, I had the Ravens and I didn't have a problem with it. So yeah.
38:11
Um, okay, let's talk a little college football for a second. We're gonna have Pete Fewnick on later, but I made a bet yesterday, uh, Mr. Bidlin. Yeah, you did. Mr. Bidley. Um, made a Heisman bet.
38:21
So, uh, can we show the Heisman market? It is out of control here.
38:25
Now, unlike the NFL awards, where there are 50 votes, 50, that's it, for all of the NFL awards, the Heisman Trophy, uh, award is on the, on the sort of backs of thousand voters, feels like.
38:40
Um, there are- Is that a real-... there are hundreds. There are hundreds upon hundreds. I think it is, even is a thousand. Thought it was like 1,300 or something. I think it's 1,300 voters, something like that.
38:48
Travis Hunter is minus 800, uh, the two-way star for the Colorado Buffaloes. Travis Hunter, who I had a bet on last year, by the way, so part of this is I hate myself, uh, Travis Hunter is minus 800. 928. 928.
39:01
Currently, yes. Like we said, not 1,300. [laughs] 928. We were just a little off. Well, I hope it changes every year. I, I mean, I used to know a guy that hadn't covered college football in decades that still had a vote.
39:13
Well, okay, Fewnick is coming up. Fewnick has a vote. Falica does not. Falica does not have a vote. Okay. So, uh, Travis Hunter is minus 800.
39:21
Now, with awards betting in every sport through the years, what do we always say? We always say, "Hey, uh, this might not actually be a reflection of reality," right?
39:30
Betting markets, when it comes to awards, may not be a reflection of actual realities 'cause we're handicapping voters.
39:36
We have no idea what these guys are thinking, except for when I ask Fewnick later or when Aaron Schatz comes on- [laughs]... I ask him directly. Then we have an idea, at least for one voter. Um, Ashton Genty is plus 650.
39:46
Everybody now is double digits, uh, or longer besides those two guys. Cam Ward is 14 to one, Cam Ward from Miami. Dillon Gabriel of Oregon has fallen all the way back to 50 to one.
39:57
And beyond that, it's all triple digits to one. So it's a t- it is, it feels like at this point it is Hunter versus Genty. Cam Ward can't win this? He can because it's award voters and we don't know.
40:10
But here's my thinking. My thinking is this: Travis Hunter in no world should be minus 800. Yeah. I'm not saying he's not gonna win it, but I'm saying in no world should he be minus 800. I get it. He's amazing.
40:23
I bet on Colorado a lot. I love Travis Hunter. Uh, apparently he's a great kid also. So is Ashton Genty. Um, and you, you, you love what his future is, but let me just say this about two-way players.
40:36
Two-way players is largely a flex. Mm. Right? In other words, it's not like he's going to be a regular two-way player in the NFL. It's this cool college thing that happens, and I'm not taking anything away from it.
40:50
I'm just saying it is what it is. It doesn't mean that you're the best wide receiver in the country. It doesn't mean you're the best cornerback in the country. And by the way, you're not the best at either.
41:00
You're really good at both, but you're not the best. Uh, a few tweets if you will. Uh, this is from Football Fanatics.
41:05
"If Ashton Genty doesn't win Heisman over Travis Hunter, it just solidifies that it is turning into a popularity contest and not the best player in college football award."
41:13
Now, this graphic is gonna be small to some, but basically Ashton Genty, uh, Ashton Genty at Boise State attempts yards, yards per attempt from scrimmage, touchdowns, um, it's cut off here, but there's also, um, other touchdowns from scrimmage.
41:26
I think there is total touchdowns, points, total offense. Uh, anyway, there's a number of offensive categories that are cut off here. He's first in almost every one of them, right?
41:35
And then if you go back to the other one, you'll see that, uh, Travis Henry on, on some other categories, he's really good, but, you know- Absolutely...
41:42
there's nothing, there's nothing that, that makes him number one, even close to number one in anything. Now, I get it, you're in two sides of the football, so that should, you know, it's a Shohei thing, right?
41:51
Yeah, yeah. It's a Shohei thing. But if Shohei Ohtani hit, you know, 25 homers and, and had a 4.00 ERA, would he still win MVP in baseball? We've talked about this. Maybe, maybe not. Um, let's go to the other one here.
42:05
This is another tweet. This is from, uh, DraftKings. "Ashton Genty's 2024 season looking a bit familiar."
42:10
This is comparin- comparing Ashton Genty's 2024 to Derrick Henry's 2015 Heisman year, which I like to refer to as, "Hey, uh, Derrick Henry, could you give Christian McCaffrey...
42:20
I know you're holding Christian McCaffrey's Heisman for him. Where is it in your house?" [laughs] Yeah, for real, right? There was such East Coast bias back then- Yeah... it's unbelievable.
42:28
Um, but anyway, you see that it, it's, you know, in 11 games, 2,062 yards for Genty. In 13, 1,986 for Alabama. I get it. Alabama's playing in the SEC against the greatest teams every week. I know.
42:41
Um, Ashton Jeanty, 7.5 yards per carry. Is that good? 187 and a half yards per game. Both of those considerably better than Henry. I get it, the competition not as good, but still.
42:51
And then this last one I just wanna show you just to drive the point home a little further, and we'll get into this with Futac later. I have no idea who Futac's leaning towards. Uh, this is from CFB Talk Daily.
43:01
"Running backs in college football history with 2,000 rushing yards and 25 rushing touchdowns in 11 games. Barry Sanders, Ricky Williams, Ashton Jeanty. That's your list.
43:11
His 2,062 rushing yards through 11 games are the most in college football since LaDainian Tomlinson did so in 2000." That's via Reddit.
43:18
So I say all of this to say, look, do I know that Ashton Jeanty's gonna win the Heisman? I do not.
43:24
But yesterday I got him at plus 750 because my feeling is, and obviously, uh, those tweets aside for a second, but those tweets matter, uh, the contents of them, um,
43:34
I feel like if you don't give Ashton Jeanty the Heisman Trophy this year, you are basically saying, and I get it, he plays in the Mountain West and not the SEC or the Big Ten, but if we can just have a little bit of context.
43:48
If you don't give a guy with these stats, these historical stats, the Heisman, you are probably never giving another running back the Heisman Trophy ever again. And I mean that.
43:59
Unle- again, I'm sure if some Bama, uh, running back were to do something o- otherworldly, okay, maybe there's an exception to that. But you get the general idea.
44:08
If you don't give it to Ashton Jeanty this year, then when will you ever give this to anybody who is a running back?
44:16
And Travis Hunter, while that's an awesome thing to be on both sides of the football, you have a, uh, Colorado team that may not get to the college football, uh, playoff, probably won't get there.
44:26
Boise State, uh, most likely, it's not a lock that they will, um, but most likely at this point will. I don't know. 938 voters? I'd be willing to take a shot at plus 750, and so that's why I bet it. Plus 750.
44:40
It's a fun race here. It's a fun race. I, I don't, I, I don't mind the bet at all. I, I'm, I'm with you. Minus 800 feels steep. Yeah, I mean, if he was two to one, I wouldn't have bet. Right. But plus 750? Sure.
44:52
Absolutely. Uh, we'll come back and we'll talk Champions League with Paul Carr next.
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