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Nov 26, 2024
A Numbers Game | November 26, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | November 26, 2024 | Hour 2
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:37
VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We appreciate, uh, you taking us in any which way of those. Uh, always appreciate it. Game Plus. Did I say Game Plus? I don't know if I did. I think you did. Maybe. Okay.
0:48
Um, this is Gil Alexander. That is Kelly Bidlin, everybody, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. You good? I'm good, man. How you doing? Yeah, I'm doing very well. Good. Thank you for asking.
0:57
Uh, still to come this hour, Peter Fewtchak, talk college football with him, and Jake Bensequin, one of the, uh, remaining circuit survivors, 54 entries left, each of which has an intrinsic value of $264,000 plus.
1:10
I can't wait to, well, I, I can't wait to talk to everybody, but, uh, I was wondering, have we gotten too far for Pete to even be able to tell us his Heisman thoughts? We- Oh... we maybe have. Come on, Pete.
1:20
I'm already mad at Pete and he's not even on here yet. [laughs] He, he didn't say that to me- Yeah... but I'm wondering. Yeah, no, we'll get it out of him. Watch. [laughs] He makes a promise he may not be able to keep.
1:30
No, I think we'll get it out of him. Maybe, come on, he, he, he'll do a generic answer. We, he's not held to it. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, he's, he's not, what he says- I think he can work his way around it, yeah...
1:38
yeah, what he says here, he's not, like, beholden to, um, at this point, but just get his thinking, his current thinking. We'll get into the Ashton Jeanty versus Travis Hunter stuff. We get tweets of beating the book.
1:47
Uh, this is from S- uh, Brosek1870. He says, "Oh, you're gonna have me drive over the border to make soccer bets today, huh?" Yes, the answer is yes. Paul Carr standing by to talk Champions League with us.
1:59
JC562076, "I feel like the Ravens went for two up seven because Jim must know his brother doesn't like going for two." Jim or John doesn't know his brother like going for two.
2:10
"When the Chargers were down 14 and scored, they didn't hesitate to go for two." Yep, yeah, they did. They only went for one at the end, or one earlier, didn't they? Yeah. Uh, as- I don't know.
2:22
I'm confused on that one too... um, it was a little confusing tweet. "As someone that had the Ravens minus six and a half live, I didn't mind." I didn't either, as someone who had the, uh, the Ravens pre-flop.
2:30
Um, Matthew Mayberry, "Don't you think if Oregon goes undefeated and beats Ohio State again in the Big 10 title, that Gabriel is still gonna be right there?" He might be. Again, these are, these are voters.
2:40
I just like the Ashton Jeanty case better. I, I think it's fascinating where we're at, just from, uh, it feels like NFL MVP, Heisman, right, has just become, it's quarterback, quarterback, quarterback.
2:51
Y- y- you're, you brought up the running backs being so, you know, it's been so long basically since we've seen consistent running backs considered. This ought to be the year.
3:00
This ought to be the year for voters to say to themselves, "Self, there is no quarterback that has done something so unbelievably good that we should take this year to not give it to a quarterback." Yeah.
3:13
See, I'm wondering how many, how many people have, I think are gonna go into the voting process, uh, thinking that way. How many are thinking, "Oh, he plays for Boise State.
3:22
Maybe it's not, you know, it's not Alabama," and then how many are thinking about that with H- Hunter too? Well- We haven't had a chance to give it to a two-way player in a while. Let's go do that...
3:31
but the thing about Jeanty is you do have a Heisman history, right? The histories of- Right...
3:34
the history of college football, the annals of college football, Kelly, are filled with a, a different time where running backs got this all the time. Mm-hmm. Right?
3:43
Here's your modern-day guy, and earlier in the season, I remember Falica was on here, he was like, "They're not gonna give it to a running back from a Mountain West team."
3:50
Okay, but week after week after week after week, he kept doing it, to the point now where the numbers are so ridiculously gaudy. Plus 750, okay. Sammy Does St.
4:00
Louis, "Good breakdown on Jeanty, just grabbed him at plus 650. Just moved to six to one." We're moving markets, baby. [laughs] There we go. That's what he said. Happy Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving to you too.
4:10
And then, uh, Eric Berg, "I'm a little behind on replay, but I think it's time to talk about the Big 12 getting no bids to the playoffs. Not one team deserves to get in.
4:18
I would rather see SMU, Indiana, Boise, and Tulane all get in." Um, obviously the, the champion gets in. He's talking about an at large, I believe, is what he's talking about there. So, um, it'll be interesting.
4:30
I'll talk to Fewtchak about that as well, because we do have, somebody's getting the shaft.
4:35
It could be a second Big 12 team, if you consider that getting the shaft, or it could be, right, like, uh, I don't know, an Indiana at the expense of, of a second Big 12. I don't know.
4:45
Uh, Shades of Mako, "Yo, totally agree on Heisman. Traveling right now, but I think I have Jeanty at nine to one and plus 750 from a few weeks back. Hope we're all right."
4:54
Uh, let's talk, uh, some Champions League with Paul Carr, ladies and gentlemen. You can follow him on Twitter @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R.
5:00
He works at True Media Networks, spreading the analytics gospel, and of course, uh, he is the host of the Expected Value podcast, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, man? What's happening?
5:11
I'm well, Gil. I got a quick story. One of your listeners talked about driving across the border to make bets. So- Yes... last week I was in, I was in St.
5:18
Louis last week for work, and staying a few blocks from the river, which is the border with Illinois. So, you know, I drove across the river in the morning to place a few bets for a couple days.
5:30
There's a casino right across the river, parking lot right there, and I was not the only person doing this. Yes.
5:36
[laughs] In this, in this parking lot, you see cars drive up with Missouri plates, sit next to you, guys, 'cause they're mostly dudes, let's be honest- [laughs]...
5:43
on their phones, looking down, doing their thing, there for, like, five minutes and leaving. So I'm there for, I don't know, 15, 20 minutes, and probably half a dozen other people doing this.
5:51
This is our- So they won't- This is- They won't have to for long. Yeah, this, they won't have to for long. That's exactly right. This is exactly how we are in Nevada with Arizona. Proof of concept for my food truck.
6:00
Kelly's food truck concept. I'm so lazy, man.
6:02
There is literally, you go to the [laughs] you go to the Hoover Dam, one of the finest engineering structures in, in all of Planet Earth, and, uh, yeah, they ask you as you drive in there, "Hey, you here to see the Hoover Dam?"
6:13
You're like, "Well, no, I'm here to make a bet." Uh, and you, uh- Going to Kelly's food truck. [laughs] Hoover Dam. Hoover Dam, Shmoover Dam, I'm here to make a bet.
6:20
And there's this little, it's like an indent into the- Yeah... into the cliff. And, and cars are all parked there, and everybody's making bets. Everybody's making bets there. [laughs] Mm-hmm.
6:29
We're running down for DFS or whatever, yep. Yeah. That's where Kelly's food truck should be. Kelly's food- We need that food truck in the St. Louis casino parking lot too. [laughs] I love that you're doing that, though.
6:38
All right, let's go to Champions League. Before we get to your specific, uh, plays here, uh, Champions League futures, is there a play? Um, I don't think so.
6:46
I mean, it's fun just to look at the market because City had been- Man City had been the heavy favorite, but they've lost five in a row.
6:52
And so now you've got, what, three, four, five teams that are all, like, 600 or shorter, more or less. I don't love any of them.
6:59
I mean, part of me wants to throw something on Real Madrid at plus 500 or better just because they're Real Madrid and have this Champions League devil's magic like they did last year, but they have a lot of injuries, and that's not very appealing.
7:10
City is a disaster. Liverpool is okay, but I think they're a little overrated right now. Barcelona, Arsenal, Bayern. If I had to pick one on this board right here, I would take Bayern at plus 900.
7:22
I think they might be the best or at least most reliable team that's out there right now. Um, so that, that's where I would look if I had to play one of those. Bayern Munich, Kelly. What league? Z- uh, Das Bundesliga.
7:33
There you go. Ah. Thank you very much. So it's all, that's the only reason I come into work, is just to hear that kind of stuff. All right. When Kelly's here.
7:39
Uh- I was thinking, oh, shocker, Paul Carr going with the German team. That's what I was thinking. [laughs] I walk into that one every single time. Every time.
7:46
It's not, it's not an international tournament without Paul Carr- [laughs]... picking a team from Germany, whether national or otherwise. Yeah, yeah. Uh, all right. Uh, Sporting versus Arsenal.
7:55
You have a team from Portugal and of course a team from the Premier League. What do you got here? I do. I like a draw here today at plus 250.
8:02
This is, I mean, the big question here is sort of how much is Arsenal going to try to win, which maybe sounds a little silly, but they've been kind of pretty disinterested in letting things happen in general in their road games so far in Champions League.
8:15
Uh, Sporting's pretty good. I mean, you saw them sneak onto that title odds graphic down at the bottom. They beat Man City fairly handily a few weeks ago.
8:23
Uh, so Arsenal is a little bit better, but Sporting is, again, are they the 10th best team in the world? Maybe right now. Uh, the big question about them is that their manager, Ruben Amorim, left for Manchester United.
8:34
So is that gonna affect things? I don't think so, but I think we've just got, you know, the better team on the road. Uh, and I think they'll try to keep it tight, Arsenal will.
8:43
So, you know, nil-nil, one-one, very much in play here. So I like a draw at plus 250. A draw at plus 250. I like that. That's today.
8:53
You're looking for some, uh, soccer action, a draw at plus 250 between Sporting and Arsenal. Let's go to tomorrow. Uh, this is, I love this, Kelly. Look at these teams.
9:01
[laughs] Uh, you have, uh, Girona from Spain and then Sturm Graz. Where do you think Sturm Graz is from, Kelly? Oh my gosh. Uh- [laughs] I have no idea. Somewhere Eastern European. What's, like, Germany's- Yeah, ish...
9:15
Germany's l- l- twin brother. Little- Austria. There you go. There you go. Really? That's where we're going with it? Austria. They're in the- Yeah, well done... they're in the Austrian Bundesliga. Oh.
9:22
Did you know there was another Bundesliga, Kelly? I did not. Yeah. I'm excited now. [laughs] Yeah, yeah.
9:28
So I wasn't really sure what, uh, you know, we have the Kelly Bidman rules of take the team you've heard of against the team you haven't. Yep. He's big on that.
9:34
I wasn't sure how that factored in if you haven't heard of either team. Well- Maybe it's, uh, take the one in- It's an under. I think it's an under play. It's an under.
9:40
[laughs] Maybe the league you've heard of, 'cause Girona's from La Liga, which is obviously a, a higher caliber league than the Austrian Bundesliga. Uh, Girona's kind of a mid-table team this year in La Liga.
9:52
They were pretty good last year. They're owned by the same people that own Manchester City, and some of that money has kind of trickled down. Uh, so that's kind of why they've had a bit of a rise the last few years.
10:01
Uh, they've been okay in, in Champions League, even though the results haven't gone their way. The Sturm Graz has been pretty terrible.
10:06
They've lost all four Champions League games, including at home to a couple teams that were worse than Girona. So I like Girona just to straight win this one at plus 105.
10:16
This, you know, now that I've explained it, this is sort of a take the better team on the road. Fairly straightforward.
10:21
You've got a, again, a top eight-ish La Liga team against an Austrian team that has been good in their league but bad in Champions League. So just taking the, the better team to win, getting slightly plus money.
10:32
All right. And then [laughs] also tomorrow, PSV, Kelly, against Shakhtar Donetsk. Oh, I got this one. Oh. Eindhoven, Netherlands. PSV Eindhoven? There you go. That's right. Shakhtar Donetsk, I have no idea. Turkey?
10:45
No, sir. Oh, yeah. In the ballpark. Go a little more north. They're, they're from Ukraine. Ukraine. Ah, of course. [laughs] Shakhtar.
10:53
So, so we'll, we'll take the team Kelly's heard of in PSV against the team they haven't. Um- There you go... I'll lay the goal and a half here, getting, uh, plus money. I got a plus 115, I believe.
11:02
Uh, PSV has been cooking in the Dutch league. They've outscored opponents 45 to nine in 13 games, and they won 12 of those 13. Uh, the Dutch league known for being a high-scoring environment.
11:12
But Shakhtar isn't, this is a bad Shakhtar team. This is not, this is not your grandpa's Shakhtar team, Kelly- [laughs]...
11:18
that, you know, could make a run to the quarterfinals like they did, uh, it was probably 10 years ago or so in Champions League. So this is not a good Shakhtar team. PSV is much better.
11:27
They, this is, they don't sit on one-goal leads either. Like, their best defense is a good offense. Like, we'll just score two more and go up three-nil instead of sitting on a one-nil lead.
11:36
So I, I think PSV at home just rolls over a much worse team. I'll lay the goal and a half, getting plus money. PSV, it's intolerance of other cultures and the Dutch. And the Dutch. Waiting for that.
11:46
[laughs] All right, uh, today, Sporting and Arsenal, the draw at plus 250 tomorrow. Uh, Girona win over Sturm Graz plus 105. Shop around for the best. And then PSV giving a goal and a half against Shakhtar Donetsk.
11:57
Paul, thank you as always. Appreciate it, man. You bet. Enjoy the midweek soccer. Midweek action, Thanksgiving week. Um, not Thanksgiving where these folks are playing, that's for sure. Uh, we'll come back.
12:08
Pete Fewnick College Football. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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13:12
Minimum purchase may apply. Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beat in the Book. Uh, Trip Tepper, he says, "The Big 12 champ isn't guaranteed a bid. It's top five conference champs." Yes, that you are correct, Trip.
13:23
By the letter, we should be accurate. You are c- [laughs] you are correct. By letter, Big 12 is, uh, not guaranteed a, a bid with their champion.
13:30
But you have four that get byes, and then the fifth conference champion that is the highest ranked beyond that, uh, gets in. So that is where we get to what we got to.
13:38
Shooter McGamblin, uh, "The Saquon Barkley discourse, the Saquon Barkley discourse is driving me insane. We saw Saquon on the Giants. They were not good.
13:48
A running back will not make a bad team good, but they can make a good team really good. By the way, Tracy Jr.'s averaging five yards a carry while making 12 million less than Saquon."
13:56
I hope you heard, uh, me talking about this yesterday, Shooter, 'cause I kind of said all of that.
14:01
Um, that Giants fans either way are probably, you know, the average Giants fan is still gonna be sort of melancholy about it and blue about it, as is their owner, obviously, John Mara.
14:10
He's on record as, as, uh, having said that preemptively. Um, but yes, the Giants would only be incrementally better with him most likely. Um, I agree with you on that. I talked about that yesterday.
14:22
And I also, uh, I have to say it again, you can kill the Giants for letting go of Saquon, but the real Giants issue was the fact that they committed the money to Daniel Jones. Mm-hmm.
14:33
And then every decision thereafter fell into place. So you can't really take the Saquon thing in a vacuum, and so that's, I think, what people are missing in the conversation.
14:41
The, the other part of this is if, uh, assuming we're coming fr- this is coming from a Giants fan, too, you, uh, you might have the same exact problem on your hands again, just not with a running back.
14:50
A, know you're talking about Tracy here, but a wide receiver in Malik Nabers. Right? I wa- but great young wide receivers, uh, don't make bad teams into great teams.
15:00
It's the same thing you're talking about here with running backs. Malik's handling it well, though, isn't he? Yeah, sure. [laughs] Yeah. See that post-game? I, part of it, I, part of it- I should talk to the coach...
15:09
part of what he said I completely agree with. Like, I, this is, we all wanna get excited about DeVito. There's a drop-off from Daniel Jones, whe- whether you like it or not. Not the quarterback's fault.
15:18
Yeah, he's, uh, he's not handling it well. Ladies and gentlemen, Peter Futak joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, @petefutak, F-U-T-A-K.
15:28
He is the emperor of collegefootballnews.com. Pete, always a pleasure to see you, man. How you doing? I'm fine. Let me, let me go back to what your first tweet here on the, the Big 12 champion.
15:37
I, I'm not sure what your discussion exactly was. But I, I will throw out a, a scenario that might not be all that crazy. Let's say Clemson gets annihilated by South Carolina.
15:46
Like, South Carolina is good, Clemson has a problem, and South Carolina just goes 38-14 on Clemson. Let's say Syracuse beats Miami. Clemson's in the ACC Championship, and let's say it beats SMU close.
16:01
Meanwhile, Tem- uh, Tulane annihilates Memphis, destroys Army in the AAC Championship. There's not a out...
16:08
There's an outside shot that in the final college football playoff rankings, a four-loss Clemson team, or a three-loss Clemson team could be ranked lower than Tulane in this.
16:19
And in that case, yeah, you would have a Power Four team that would be left out of this. Yep, it's possible. It is possible. Nothing is a guarantee. Um, absolutely right. We should be accurate about it.
16:29
Um- The Big 12, like my, my point being the Big 12 is pretty much a lock. Yes. It's pretty mu- Big 12 champion's gonna get in. Uh, the ACC champion's the one to worry about. That's right. It is, it is...
16:38
Uh, I'll say it again. I still think the Big 12 champ is getting in, but we should be accurate. It's not, it's not worded that way, right? It's a fifth- Exactly... fifth highest ranked conference champ that gets in.
16:48
I just wanna be clear about that. Yes. Um, okay, tomato, tomato, because what I wanna get to first is Ashton Jeanty, speaking of, of a, uh, Mountain West champion. Um, Heisman. You have a Heisman vote.
17:03
Let me ask you this. Travis Hunter is -800 to win the Heisman. First of all- Yeah... you agree that that number is out of whack, yes? Well, he- again, the problem with this is it's a popularity contest.
17:16
It's like he can't, like, go out there and actually, like, physically win it. People have to choose him. So it's trying to gauge the market. And the problem with Ashton Jeanty is who's seen him play?
17:28
I mean, uh, the Mountain West games just are kind of on at funky times. You hear about the, you hear about him. He's great when he plays. His numbers are out of this world.
17:37
Uh, but the, the problem is when you have, and I'm d- I'm not this guy usually, but when you have ESPN or Fox, whoever has the Colorado game, pumping up that Colorado thing all the time, it's right in your face.
17:50
It's a big PR machine 'cause Colorado's so popular. So as a Heisman voter, my problem with Travis Hunter is he's not their best player.
17:58
To completely to your point before, you were talking about does Saquon Barkley make a team? Does Malik Nabers make a team? Travis Hunter's good. I'm not, I...
18:07
The problem with this argument is, uh, I don't mean to be dogging anybody, Shedeur Sanders is that team. He's having a phenomenal year.
18:15
He is the best player on that team, and yet he's probably not even close to winning the Heisman, at least according to his own coach and father, compared to Travis Hunter.
18:23
So the Travis Hunter PR machine is kicking in big time, and there's just no one else out there who's really making a big statement right now Even Gent, who's been fantastic If you had a vote today. It's not today. Ugh.
18:38
The vote is not today. Yeah. You have a vote, but if the vote were today, you had to submit today, who do you think you're voting for? I don't know. I mean, I, I know it's a horrible answer.
18:48
Uh, but the problem is, for me, it's... I, I always, uh, really pretentiously say, "Who is the guy?" Who is the signature player of the college football season? A combination MVP, most outstanding player.
18:59
Who, who is the guy who's making the season the season?
19:01
Like, last year, a bigger argument could have been made for Jalen Milroe because what he did in his, in the win over Georgia, getting Alabama to the SEC championship, getting them to the college football playoff.
19:12
I mean, Jayden Daniels is obviously amazing numbers-wise, but Jalen Milroe is more important, so I... It was Daniels. But it was still, there was a ar- there, there was a case to be made there.
19:22
There's nobody out there right now who you can say, "Yeah, this is the MVP of the college football season." Uh, so right now, I, I mean, I, I guess Hunter's just been that good.
19:31
But again, I sh- to me, it's Shedeur Sanders, but it all depends on whether or not he gets Colorado to the Big 12 championship and the, uh, the college football playoff.
19:39
Pete, if, if, if my position is if Ashton Jeanty doesn't get it this year, we're never, ever giving it to a running back ever again.
19:47
And the only way we- Unless he's on a, I, I know you dug me for this, but unless he's on a Power Five team. Well, that's what I said earlier. If he's doing it for Alabama- That's what I said earlier... yeah.
19:54
Unless he's, unless h- some running back for Alabama has this unbelievable season, then you give it to him over Christian McCaffrey again, right? Which is also bunk. But that's the thing.
20:02
You ha- these, these biases are so East Coast to West Coast at that time. These biases are so, are so, like, entrenched that I'm just saying if, if Ashton Jeanty's season, we put it up.
20:13
It's, it's better than Derrick Henry's. I know he's not playing in as, in as big of a c- uh, conference with the same competition.
20:19
It's, it's the, you know, we were throwing up names of Barry Sanders, uh, earlier and Ricky Williams. Like, that's the list of, of what he's on.
20:27
I just feel like this has to be the year where Heisman voters say, "You know what? It's the one year we get to give it to a non-quarterback 'cause there's no quarterback that's doing something out of control spectacular.
20:38
So we have to give it to a non-quarterback. At least let's do it this year." And maybe Ashton Jeanty ought to be that guy. That's all I'm saying. Yeah. A- a- I'm not gonna argue against that.
20:46
I mean, he's g- the, the other problem is the Power Five snobbery of it, which, you know, again, I mean, to, to the MVP point, I, I would make the argument that Derrick Henry from an MVP standpoint way deserved it over McCaffrey.
20:58
So, like, there's- Well, I don't...
20:59
uh, there's, I mean, well, D- they won the national championship, and he got them to the SEC championship, but- And none of you, and none of you all watched any Stanford games that year. I'm, I'm, like, we- I did.
21:08
But I watched everyone... we forget about what it was like nine years ago. No, no, I mean he was- None of y'all watched him... no, but he, he was amazing.
21:13
I mean, McCaffrey was, you know, but again, it, it was Derrick Henry. You know, if you remember the, you know, name the quarterback on Alabama that year.
21:19
They didn't have a Tua or a, uh, you know, a superstar quarterback that year.
21:24
Uh, so anyway, but, um, yeah, the part of the thing is y- are you doing it against Utah State and San Diego State, or are you doing it against Georgia and, you know, Tennessee?
21:32
I mean, that's pretty much the, the debate here, and that's, again, it's a popularity contest. All right. So it- Pete... it's just whoever, you know, of course...
21:39
Pete, Pete, I hope you do the right thing and you vote for Jeanty. [laughs] Like- Uh, okay. Now let's move on real quick. Who's the team that's gonna get the shaft in the college football bracket in your opinion?
21:47
R- rapid fire here. Who's the team that'll be on it? Oh, rapid fire. ACC championship loser is probably gonna be the one.
21:52
I'm not, uh, uh, SMU, I'm not buying into this idea that the three-loss SEC team gets in quite yet.
21:58
I, this is the ACC championship loser's probably gonna be out, but you're gonna see a bunch of SEC people whining that their teams are not in, even though they have, uh, two or three losses.
22:06
Oh, the whining will absolutely be there. Okay. And then- And they deserve- not deserve. They, they should be out. I'm, I'm good with that. Yeah. Texas A&M have a chance to beat Texas outright this weekend?
22:15
I, I, I can't go against it. This has been my call since January, that Texas A&M wins this. Uh, then, then it gets really funky and fun with, uh, all the permutations and stuff, the SEC championships.
22:26
I assume Georgia's in no matter what, and then the Texas-Texas A&M winner. Uh, they're playing the Texas-Texas A&M winner. But yeah, absolutely. I'm not buying Texas. I don't, I... They're fast. They're good.
22:35
Uh, they've got a lot of athleticism. But I'm not buying Texas, it being this be-all, end-all. All right. If I- Not the team that has not really beaten anybody yet. Last thing.
22:42
If I came to you from the future after Saturday and I said to you, "Hey, there was one other major upset," not major, but you know, there was one other big upset in college football this weekend, it would be?
22:52
Syracuse over Miami. Uh, Syracuse has got it. Miami's always just kind of begging to get tagged. Uh, they come, they come up big late.
22:59
But in Syracuse, this might be one of those games where the Orange screw everything up. Peter Fewnick, everybody, @PFewnick. Thank you, Pete. There you go. Collegefootballnews.com is where you can check him out.
23:09
I don't think I swayed him. I don't think I did. Yeah. No. We'll come back. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:20
Back on our numbers game, live from Circa Resort and Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside. Just wanted to add this, uh, this is from Sam Block on Twitter.
23:30
He said, "The Giants let Saquon leave. The Titans let King Henry leave. The Raiders let Josh Jacobs leave. Those three teams combined seven and 26 this year. Those three running backs are a combined 25 and 9."
23:42
Yeah, it's wild. We talked about it a bit yesterday. Maybe, just maybe, elite running backs matter.
23:45
Well, as we said last segment, they do matter when they go to a good, you know, a team that can go to, from, from good to the next level. Mm-hmm.
23:52
But from bad to, you know, whatever would be the case if you're going to a really bad team, I think. Yep. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, I've been looking forward to this segment all day.
24:00
Uh, he is one of the folks who is still alive in Circus Survivor, the $14.266 million Circus Survivor contest, which started with 14,266 entries, every one of those at $1,000 a pop.
24:14
There are 54 entries left, uh, 46 of which are people with one entry. Four people have two entries left.
24:22
This gentleman is one of the ones that has had one entry le- not only does he have one entry, uh, left, but he has had this one and only one from the beginning. Uh, it's Jake Bensequin, everybody, back on the show.
24:33
He is a, uh, co-founder of Profit X as well. Joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Jake? Doing great, Gil. Great to be back.
24:41
Um, real quick for the folks before we get to the survivor talk, give us the 30-second Profit X elevator speech, if you would. Happy to. So, uh, Profit X is a peer-to-peer exchange.
24:51
Uh, what that means is you play against others, uh, rather than playing against the house. And what that means for you as the consumer is you get better odds on every single play that you are making.
25:00
Uh, we're seeing spreads around minus 102s rather than, uh, minus 110s, money lines minus 260, plus 255, rather than, you know, your minus 300, plus 250 that you're seeing across the board.
25:11
So the short and sweet pitch is you're getting better odds by playing against others. All right. In 40 states, by the way. 40- In 40 states... n- th- 39 or 40? 40, I believe it is. 40? 39 plus DC, depending- Plus DC...
25:22
on how you count it over there. There you go. Okay. Uh, all right. This is a tweet from you, Jake. We ran this earlier.
25:27
This is a tweet that you put out, I believe it was yesterday, where you're like, "Hey, look, I don't really have sports betters in my family. Uh, I'm in this thing. How do I, uh..."
25:34
This is, "Not one person in my family is a sports bettor. If you had Circus sports survivor entry available this Thanksgiving, would you sweat in silence or open Pandora's box by talking about the entry?
25:42
I've truly never been more conflicted. No one talks about this part of the sweat." Sweat in silence wins over open Pandora's box 64.2% to 35.8%. So is that what you're gonna do on Thanksgiving? Yeah, for sure.
25:55
[laughs] It's, uh, it's not worth opening it. Um, too many questions would be asked. We're gonna, we're gonna continue riding like we have been. Are you gonna be able to function- Yeah. [laughs]... around family?
26:04
Like, how's that gonna go?
26:06
Well, the huge benefit here is that I will most likely be on Kansas City, so I just get to watch, hopefully, carnage unfold on Thursday, uh, and then probably find myself some solitude on Black Friday without anyone around, but we'll see how it shakes out.
26:22
I haven't looked at any, uh, scheduling or planning or know what's going on on the Friday yet. So we're, uh, we're playing it by ear over here. Okay. Okay, so that's the way to go, Gil.
26:30
That's what we were discussing this tweet earlier, Jake, and I was like, "How he, how's he gonna make it through Thanksgiving trying to pretend?" But, no, he, he'll wait till Friday. That works. Okay. So that was...
26:39
Let, let's assume.
26:40
So the, th- for those who don't know, the Circus survivor quirk is, is that Thanksgiving, quote, unquote, which is the three games on Thursday, on Thanksgiving itself, and the fourth game on Friday, on Black Friday, are one week.
26:53
They s- they act as one week. Then Sunday and Monday acts as another week. 13A, 13B, if you will. So 13A, as everyone who entered this contest did, or if they're doing it right, they did, right? Pre-flop.
27:08
You had to really plan for this. Do you have both Detroit... Detroit and Kansas City are the big favorites Thursday and Friday. Do you have both of those teams available? I don't have Detroit. Okay.
27:19
I have Kansas City, Dallas, and Green Bay. So, uh, basically anyone but Detroit is, is where I can go. All right. So the Chiefs are the obvious one for you.
27:27
We, this is a list of, of from a team, from the team's perspective, the eight teams that are playing Thursday and Friday. Only 17 folks have the Lions available to them.
27:37
I would imagine all 17 of those people will play that, um, because there isn't a more natural place to play either the Lions or Chiefs. You're one of the 37 Chiefs folks. Okay.
27:49
So, you know, I'm gonna say this, the Chiefs should do this, but you know how the Chiefs play, right? They g- they play in these really close games.
27:56
What has been your closest call this season, Jake, before we get to this weekend? It's honestly been pretty sweat-free, um- [laughs] Oh, thank God... to be, to, to, to be quite honest. Um,
28:08
week one, Seattle versus Denver might have actually been the closest call, and that was a little bit of a blowout early on.
28:14
I believe Denver came back a little bit at the end, but I've been on the right side of fading Carolina when it's been getting blown out. Um, it's been...
28:23
The, the Titans took the lead early, I believe, a couple weeks ago. Um, I think that was the Lions game, and obviously we know what happened from there, but there's been a lot of first quarter sweats.
28:32
I don't know if the second halves have really been that sweaty. Um, I was nervous for the Fins last week, but another sweat-free [laughs] game. That's a... By the way, you realize that's amazing in and of itself, right?
28:42
Yeah. For sure. The fact that you've gotten this far without a sweat, 'cause usually everybody's story involves one miracle.
28:48
It's been, it's been more sweating the other things that have been going on around me than my actual own entry, which, you know, I'll take every day of the week. Okay. So let's say Kansas City gets it done.
28:59
Kansas City d- gets it done on Friday. Um, and they are a double-digit favorite against the Raiders, not that anything could g- you know, could go wrong there, Jake. But let's say they do.
29:09
They get through, and you get to week 13B, which is Sunday and Monday. Here's the rub, right? Because we have a Sunday, Monday where there is on- literally the biggest favorite. Imag- Drew was saying this earlier.
29:22
Imagine if you came to somebody [laughs] before the season, you're like, "Hey, hope you saved Buffalo for week 13B," 'cause they're the biggest favorite against San Francisco. They're a seven-point favorite.
29:31
Besides that spread, there are only three games that are above a four-point spread, and that's the Commanders six and a half... excuse me, five and a half point favorites against the, uh, the Titans.
29:43
That is the Pa- the Buccaneers, six-point favorites on the road at the Panthers. I would imagine everybody's used them. And then what's the other one? Oh, the four and a half. Houston, four and a half at Jacksonville.
29:53
So really there's only three games above four and a half. What are you going to do if you're fortunate at a, enough to get through Friday?
30:00
Yeah, I think real quick on Kansas City, it's about as bad as I could feel about a 13-point favorite- [laughs]... uh, to be, to, to be quite honest. Yeah. Um, I, I think I saw something that they're...
30:11
I don't remember what the, what the timeframe was, but they're, I think, 12 and 1 in their last 13, and they're, uh, 2 and 11 against the spread in that time, um, which is an absolutely remarkable stat because they just have not been covering as huge favorites.
30:25
Um, not that that obviously applies here, but, uh, I don't like when new QBs come into the picture. I hate that O'Connell's back. I would have very much obviously preferred Desmond Ritter. Um, but it is what it is.
30:37
Uh, going into the weekend- Um, I'm lucky enough to have Buffalo. Uh, I did not plan- Oh, wow. Okay... I did not plan on using them in this spot.
30:46
Uh, Buffalo I think is home versus New England, home versus the Jets in New England to end the year, and I think we all know the Jets aren't gonna look like anything below a seven-point favorite there.
30:55
Um, so there is some benefit to saving them towards the end of the season. Um, I don't like Tampa Bay. I think Carolina's finding some rhythm. I think Thielen was a big add back for Carolina last week.
31:07
Bryce Young suddenly looks like a maybe NFL quarterback, and Tampa Bay plays the Raiders at home and the Panthers at home down the stretch as well.
31:15
Um, so, uh, I, I think one thing, uh, that we didn't mention there is Denver, uh, is, I believe, five-and-a-half point favorites on Monday night. Ah, yes. Yes, they are... uh, ver- versus the Browns. Mm-hmm.
31:25
So that's another option. I wouldn't feel great about the Commanders after last week, especially with Ekeler and Brian Robinson going down. Um, it seems like Buffalo and, and the market are pricing Purdy out.
31:36
Uh, obviously, um, I'm, I'm praying for anything other than a game time decision, uh, but that's what it's looking like if I had to guess. But, uh, Buffalo or Denver is really, uh, I think the only two viable options.
31:48
Tampa Bay's gotta be saved, in my opinion. All right. So you think you're going Buffalo, though, if you get through Friday? Yeah, if I get through, as of right now- Okay... Buffalo seems, seems like the pick.
31:57
I believe they're off a bye too, which always makes me feel a little bit better. That, that is correct. Okay.
32:01
Now, I hesitate to do this because you should never look ahead in Survivor, but we're actually gonna look two games ahead, obviously, 13A and 13B. Okay. We're gonna go the rest of the way, five more weeks after that.
32:12
Actually, six, 'cause there's Christmas too, right? Uh-oh. Yeah. Forgot about that. Do you have it, quote, unquote, "mapped out," and more importantly than that, what do...
32:22
You've never been in this position before, I would assume. Certainly for, for po- uh, you know, a pool this big, you haven't. What is your sense right now about what your chop philosophy is?
32:33
Like, when do you think you, Jake Bensiquin, will be ready to talk about that? Yeah. I've al- I've always said after Thanksgiving. I feel like I've got to get through the Thanksgiving.
32:43
Uh, the, the, the wrinkle of Thanksgiving week is, you know, what makes Circus Survivor unique. Um, I think a lot of the other contests, uh,
32:51
you end up with a lot of different people winning, but the Christmas and the Thanksgiving here makes it, uh, makes it special. So I wanna get through this week. I wanna get through Friday at the very least.
33:00
Probably too quick of a turnaround to do anything for Sunday. Um, but, uh, as you know, friend of the program, Joe Pete, is best in the business at anything related to this. So- Yes...
33:09
uh, I'm sure we'll be having some conversations later this week, uh, early next week. Um, but, uh, I'm, I'm open to it. I've been looking at some equity swaps as well through, uh, Survivor Sweat, who's our proxy.
33:19
Nothing's shaken out, um, but I'm open to obviously de-risking this a little bit at this point, but gotta get through Thanksgiving.
33:26
Gotta get through Thanksgiving, gotta get through Sunday, and then let the de-risking, as you put it, the de-risking conversations begin.
33:32
Jake, I leave you with this, 'cause this has been a weird year because it felt like everybody was doing monetization things with their entries really early, and so, and then there, you know, with the, the wh- So it's a whole cottage industry, but you've done this the old-fashioned way.
33:47
One entry from the beginning, and it's all yours. I love it. Good luck, man. I appreciate it. I hope to see you guys in a few weeks. Yes, indeed. Jake Bensiquin from Prophet X.
33:57
You can follow him on Twitter at Jake Bensaqu, with a Q there. Uh, good luck to him, man. Be rooting for him. 54 left, each over $264,000.
34:08
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Take your betting to the next level by playing the ponies on First Bet from Del Mar and Gulfstream Park to the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
34:24
First Bet has you covered. Sign up at firstbet.com. That's the number one S-T bet.com. [clears throat] Pardon me. Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200.
34:35
Head to firstbet.com today. Uh, it is Thanksgiving week, Kelly. Uh, I don't know if you know that, special numbers game investigation. Um- Does, does reveal. Yeah, does reveal.
34:44
And, um, so we're doing a mega pod earlier this week, and we're doing it today, and we're doing it after Money Moves, which comes up after us, because Stormy is our guest on the mega pod today. Stormy Bonatoni.
34:58
Big time booking. All right. Stormy Bonatoni, who, uh, listen, her career is, I, I tell you, she needs a mega pod boost, I tell you. There's- [laughs] I, I told her. I said, "You, now you've hit the big time."
35:07
Uh, she's never met Todd before, so that should be fun. Um, so we're looking forward to that. That's, uh... So Stormy's doing a double header.
35:13
She's doing Money Moves here at the top of the hour, and then she's doing the mega pod after that.
35:17
Money Moves followed, of course, by John Hanson and prop points from 2:00 to 3:00 here at VSiN, and then Make It Rain, 3:00 to 4:00 with Adam Shine. That's coming up on the network. I like the, uh...
35:25
My, my favorite detail that people probably don't know about the mega pod recording is that Gil can pretty much decide whatever time he wants to do this, yet d- chooses to race out of here and get home as quickly as humanly possible to set up to record it.
35:42
Fair? Is that fair? I don't really know why you, uh, don't take your time. It was, it, when we used to do it at, remember when we were at the South Point, I used to have to, like, speed at 90 miles per hour to get to...
35:52
The D was where we recorded it before? Where did we record it before? I don't even remember now. I have no idea. Yeah, The D. So we would... Yeah. Oh, yeah. That's right. Yeah. Yeah. We did do that there for a while.
36:01
So this is nothing now. Yeah, that's nothing. Yeah. Well, it was just like, "Why don't you just make it 10 o'clock, and you can take your time?" That's [laughs] He's like, "No, I gotta go."
36:08
[laughs] You think, you think the answer is 'cause I'm tired of you, Kelly? Is that what you think the answer is? No, I don't know. I don't know what it is. Uh- So it's always intrigued me...
36:15
a few more tweets here at the end. ShadesofMako, "LOL. Pete's saying I'm not usually this guy getting swayed by the ESPN propaganda while he is very obviously exactly that guy."
36:23
[laughs] I still ho- hope he'll vote for Genty, he says. I don't think he gets swayed by the ESPN propaganda. I think Pete just, uh, uh, think, thinks exactly like that [laughs] on his own.
36:35
Shooter McGammon, "I did listen to the show yesterday. My tweet was not directed at you or the great Kelly Bilat. I just love when my tweets get read while I'm at work. Party on."
36:41
[laughs] And then, uh, Undervalued on G says, "I'm a bit concerned that the look-ahead plays from Fezzik invalidate your cocoon status for Mondays." It's a very valid question.
36:49
I've addressed this, uh, JSG, which is I, uh, I w- have my conversation with Fezzik, and I swear to you, I don't remember a thing about it afterwards I don't.
36:58
I ask the question and I'm just like, "Okay, there's the thing." [laughs] By the time we get to Monday and we've played a full slate of NFL games, it's not even a consideration.
37:06
And by the way, the point of doing it on Monday is because the Sunday games change perception with recency bias. So, uh, I hear your question, but, uh, believe me, I'm not thinking about it.
37:16
Gave us a, you know, didn't, didn't hamper me getting a winner on Baltimore. Last night is the one I like the most, and I am on Green Bay, uh, as my favorite play this week on Friday.
37:25
Speaking of which, our, uh, best bets of the day courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSIN. Here are mine. I am on the Packers, uh, on a f- on a Thursday. This is a Thursday game. Mm. Yeah.
37:35
Pardon me, Thursday night game. What'd I say, Friday? Thursday night is the Packers and the Dolphins. I'm on the Packers given the three. I think it's minus three.
37:42
Minus 125 is where I got it, to be honest with you, versus the Dolphins on Thursday night. Ashton Gentry to win the Heisman plus 750. We've talked about it a lot today. Hey, plus 750 is a play for me. Two to one?
37:54
I wouldn't have played it, but plus 750, 938 voters, this is the year to, to vote on a running back. This is the guy. If you're not, if you're not voting on him, why are we ever gonna consider a running back again?
38:03
Seriously, come on. What could he, what could he possibly do more than he's done? Kelly, you sir? Yeah, he can. It's just...
38:10
No, I think, I think it's interesting because you have, you have the rare super running back season combined with the rare two-way player season, which we just don't see.
38:20
And again, I love Travis Hunter, but it's, again, I'll use what I said at the beginning, it's more of a flex than anything. Yeah. It's more like, "Look at me, I play two ways." You're not playing two ways in the NFL.
38:29
I mean, at current, no. I, I'm surprised this has grown to this big of a separation right now, so I- Mine is 800 ain't right... yeah. I'm with you. Yeah. If I had to make one right now, I'd be on that side.
38:38
Uh, for me, uh, NFL this weekend, Bills laid five and a half early. Falcons on the money line, that one's still out there. I actually just added the Rams. Um, that was one I was considering.
38:49
Drew brought it up today, um, as we transition to Drew. Uh, [laughs] Bears plus 10 and a half. Dolphins, Packers under 47. He's on the Rams lane two and a half, Colts two and a half.
38:58
Uh, and then he is involved with the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. NBA Cup action going on tonight. Uh, nothing for me, uh, at least pre-flop here in the NBA. And then Paul Carr.
39:09
Paul Carr today, Sporting and Arsenal, the draw plus 250. You want draw soccer action, betting action? Plus 250 on Sporting and Arsenal today in the Champions League. Then tomorrow, Girona over Sturm Graz.
39:22
Italy over, uh, Austria, if you're looking at countries there, plus 105 on Girona. And then PSV, the Dutch, given a goal and a half versus Shakhtar Donetsk from, uh, Ukraine. Sturm Graz is a cool name, though.
39:36
Sturm Graz? Yeah. I think, uh, Sturm Graz once played on the Challenger Tour, if I'm not mistaken, in tennis. Oh, [laughs] really? No. Kidding. Totally kidding. [laughs] Totally kidding.
39:43
Uh, that's your, uh, those are your best bets of the day courtesy of gbank, of course, who provide us with our best bets, uh, each and every day here on the show, and on every show on the network, by the way.
39:52
The gbank vis- Visa Signature Card is your best bet, delivering 1% cashback rewards on eligible gaming transactions, 2% cashback rewards on all other eligible purchases. For more information, head to visa.com/gbank.
40:03
That's V-S-I-N.com/gbank. Subject credit approval, terms, and conditions apply. Uh, it is a Tuesday, Kelly. You know what that means? NBA Cup action, baby. Let's go. NBA Cup fever, baby.
40:17
Um, so we have some, we have a group that has already been clinched, right? Yeah, we do. The Golden State Warriors, despite the dubs, man, on a non-group night last night. You see this? The dubs blew another huge lead.
40:30
They had just blown a huge lead to the Spurs, but that one you could sort of give an excuse for. I was thinking it was the third game in four nights- Mm... maybe something like that.
40:37
Last night they were up 18 on the Brooklyn Nets, and they gagged it. And the, the Nets won it going away. It was one of those Dennis Schröder, uh, performances.
40:45
But the Warriors, back to the group games, back to the cup games, they're 3 and 0 in the cup. They already clinched Group C. You had them in that group, right? Had them. Yeah, yeah, had them.
40:55
That one's, uh, already cashed, got home. That was a nice win early. Um, I have a few group g- uh, group bets hanging in the balance. Hornets, that will be eliminated. They are, they are done.
41:05
Um, and then the two up for grabs, Celtics I added at plus 330, 330, uh, after they won or lost that opening game to the Hawks. Hawks. That's, that looking [laughs] that looking pretty good right now.
41:19
Uh, did you catch, uh, speaking of my, my pronunciation, did you catch, uh, Mil- Milt Rowe from, uh, [laughs] from Pete Buttigieg? No. Oh, how does, what'd he say? There was, there was, there was an emphasis at the end.
41:29
I always go- Milt Rowe... Milt Rowe. There was a Milt Rowe. Milt Rowe. It was Milt Rowe. Um, the one I'm excited about, though, Gil, Pistons, baby. 11 to 1, still live. Yeah, man. East Group B right now at the top.
41:41
Big game tonight, not involving them, the Bucks and Heat, though. Yes. Because if the Bucks win this, it's, it really, it's all gonna come down probably to next Tuesday when Detroit and Milwaukee finally play.
41:54
Uh, Detroit has Indiana on Friday, but the game doesn't even really matter for, for where they'll be at in the, in the cup. But Milwau- I'll, I'm back on the Heat fan. I'm a Heat fan tonight, Gil.
42:03
Rooting for that Heat clears things up, makes it a little easier for Detroit. You, you need that because even if, well, even if the Bucks lose that, you wanna talk, uh, you wanna talk Emirates NBA Cup tiebreakers?
42:14
Um, even if the Bucks lose that, but then the Bucks beat your Pistons, chances are the Bucks have a 20-point point differential advantage right now. Yeah. So- They're looking good. This is where- Yeah...
42:26
so, so the other thing that could g- you, you, I mean, you don't wanna wrap yourself up too much in it. What are these... I, I keep hearing too much, what are these teams thinking?
42:34
Uh, like, okay, yeah, there's motivation for some of these guys for the cash. It's not that big, though. Let's all pump the brakes a little bit. Oh, I disagree with you. Re- uh, oh, really? I disagree with you.
42:43
Yeah, 'cause I said this last year, too. Last year it was $500,000. So if you win the cup, every player on the team gets $500,000. Yeah. Okay, I get it that the, the stars are making exponentially more than that.
42:55
But dude, 10th dude on the b- you know, 10th guy on the roster Half a million dollars is still a half a million dollars The, okay, so the- And this is what, 547, 547,000 this year, I think it is? I think you're right.
43:07
That- Yeah... oh, yeah, that's not, I'm sorry, that's not the point I was exactly trying to make. Oh.
43:10
It's the, people are talking about it like these other teams are, like, eliminated from the playoffs or something, all right? Like, these are still regular season games.
43:18
There's not any incentive for these teams just because they're eliminated in group play- Correct... to be like, "Oh, well, we don't really care what goes on out there. Throw out the bench on the court."
43:26
I feel like that's how people talk about it, but yeah. Oh, okay. Yeah. Point differential's gonna be huge, but it's head-to-head first, right? Yes.
43:32
So if Detroit and Milwaukee meet and that's on the line, the, the head-to-head is all that's gonna matter. Milwaukee looking good, though, with that point differential to possibly grab the, you know, wildcard spot. Yeah.
43:42
Well, then isn't the, uh, then isn't tonight's Bucs-Heat game sort of, you're hoping for the Bucs to lose twice, then, down in the, in- I, I mean, yeah, you're right.
43:51
It's all gonna come down to next week It probably doesn't matter. Yeah, it probably doesn't matter regardless. Yeah. Yes. For your bet. Yeah. Uh, you have any other game plays today? I really don't.
43:58
Uh, you know, Drew was leaning Timberwolves. I was ki- or, or he played the Timberwolves. We talked to him quick off the air. I was leaning Houston in that game.
44:06
Never ended up doing anything with it, though, and I'm gonna stay away now hearing the hes on Minnesota. Uh, Milwaukee, I was, I was initially interested in. They've been playing better here recently.
44:15
But the Heat have been playing a little bit better. They've gotten Jimmy Butler back in, uh, back in the, uh, i- into the lineup here, so stay away there. Suns-Lakers is very fascinating tonight.
44:25
We're finally getting, yeah, I like, I know you like to make the jokes. A lot of the NBA stars are coming back, Gil. [laughs] Suns are finally gonna be healthy.
44:31
We're g- should get a full-strength- Your whole league is injured. That's right. We should get a full-strength Lake- Lakers-Suns game tonight.
44:37
My first consideration was Phoenix, but I think I'm staying away from that one, too. I love off-air before the show, I said, "Kelly, Dub's worst loss of the season to the Nets last night. There's no excuse for that."
44:46
And he goes, "What do they care? They're Group C champs." [laughs] Right, baby. They should put, they should put up a banner. [laughs] We've done all we can do. Stormy is next with Money Moves and Joy from Visa.
44:55
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