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Nov 29, 2024
A Numbers Game | November 29, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | November 29, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:58
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:35
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:43
This is Kelly Bidlan, otherwise known as Kelly Bidley. How you doing on a Friday? I'm doing great. How are you? Oh, man. Uh, there's no time for small talk. Let me just get the small talk out of the way.
0:54
We got Paul Carr coming up, Champions, or not Champions League, pardon me, Premier League a little later on here.
0:58
This hour, Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke with all his bets, and then our, our Football Fridays, Fezzik can't make it today, so, uh, we're gonna get some version of Felika and, uh, Dr. Bob- Yeah...
1:09
with Zach Cohen filling in for Fezzik. Yeah, maybe Felika, right? Maybe Felika. K- cue the, uh, Thanksgiving travel issues. That's, that's what we got. Yeah. It's, uh- Think, think Planes, Trains and Automobiles.
1:18
Right, yeah. Him and, uh, and then you after the show, which I'm very, I wish I could have a camera on you- Oh, bro... running through the airport. Uh, this show ends at what? 8:56? Yeah. Boarding is at 9:55.
1:29
The, uh, the pre-show conversation was, uh- Yeah... what football moves is Gil gonna have to bust out in the airport? [laughs] Has stiff arms and people, spin move. Y- you said the swim, right? Swim, swim move. The swim.
1:38
Do the swim move. Get out of my TSA. [laughs] Um, and we g- we have a NFL, uh, Are We Sure?
1:43
a little later on the show where we ask the question, are we sure about, uh, any number of things, and the Larsen is smooth the bet of the week. We'll do that as well. But we must begin with,
1:53
I've been doing, uh, guessing lines for over a decade. I have, obviously, as you have, watched football for your entire life. Mm-hmm.
2:02
I'm not sure there was ever a sequence of worse coaching malpractice than we saw in that Bears-Lions game yesterday.
2:09
Let's just get, uh, we don't usually give the guessing lines treatment to Thursday games, but we have to for this one. Uh, Lions win it somehow.
2:17
Uh, should've covered this going away in the first half, but they hang on for a 23-20 win over the Chicago Bears. Um, three to nothing, Detroit.
2:26
Detroit after a horrific challenge on the first play by Everflow on their subsequent drive. W- that will go away in history, right? Yeah.
2:33
That was like, at, at that point, if it had just ended the day for Everflow, she would've still been like, "That's the worst challenge I've ever seen," on a Jameson Williams catch versus was it a fumble?
2:42
It was so clearly everything we know about football, was so clearly an incomplete pass, but he challenged it anyway, uh, and failed. Uh, Detroit then, uh, to Aman St.
2:50
Brown after that for 29 two plays later, it's a 10 play 90 yard drive. Goff to Laporta. Uh, Laporta ended up being 10 to nothing, n- uh, after another Chicago three and out.
2:58
Detroit, after getting the ball first and goal at the three, had to settle for a Bates 36-yard field goal to make it 13 to nothing after another Chicago three and out.
3:07
Um, by the way, at this point, 214 to 11 in total yards in favor of the Lions at 13 to nothing. 15 to nothing in terms of first downs. It's incredible.
3:19
Um, after Chicago three and out, Bates, another field goal, 16 to nothing, uh, and th- at this point, 253 to 15 in total yards. 17 to nothing in first downs. Another Chicago three and out.
3:31
Detroit, two plays after a fourth and one conversion on a neutral zone infraction by the Bears, they have second and six at the Chicago 19 with 1:01 left in the first half. They're up 16 to nothing.
3:40
Goff to Gibbs for 13, hit by Tyrique Stevenson, ball spins out, recovered by Javon Dexter Sr. Ugh. And after that, by the way, Chicago got their first down of the game on a 14 yard pass to Kmet. So at the half,
3:54
279 to 53 in total yards, 18 to two in first downs. The Lions ran 47 offensive plays, which to this moment in the NFL season, is the most at any half by any team.
4:08
47 to 19, 22:54 to 7:06 time of possession, and yet only 16 to nothing Lions. Okay.
4:15
And for those of us who bet the Lions late yesterday, you know, yesterday morning, I immediately texted everybody, I'm like, "I don't like this score at all." Oh, God. I was, I was just gonna ask you.
4:22
As a, as a- I don't like this score at all. Okay, so as a football person, at halftime, I, I mean, everybody was thinking the same thing, right? Yeah. This score should be way bigger. Yep.
4:30
This should, this should be in blowout territory already. As my football mind, Gil, said, "There, there's really nothing to worry about though still if you're the Lions." I, I think we all had that tho- thought too.
4:41
But as gamblers- Yes... when you're laying, when you were laying what you were laying- Uh... I had an alt, I was laying 13 and a half, and I'm like, "Okay, this," then that's when you get angry about it, right? Uh.
4:49
'Cause you're like, "This should be way bi- way bigger lead." I was so numb when this turned, I'm just like, "You gotta, you gotta be kidding me." 'Cause when the second half did happen- Yep...
4:56
Bears immediately have an offense, they matriculate, they score.
4:59
Lions did respond with a touchdown, but the Bears responded with their own, missed the two-point conversion, so 23 to 13 then all of a sudden here, early fourth quarter.
5:09
Uh, the only other thing, uh, that we should mention before the final sequence is the Lions up 10 ended up having a Bates 45-yard field goal. That went wide left with 8:42 left in the game.
5:21
Bears are still down 10, but then Chicago, after like a clear delay of game penalty not being called, they get a first down three plays later to D.J. Moore from 31 out.
5:29
20 to 17 Lions with 5:36 left, and then Detroit gets the ball back. Usually, what the Lions do in these situations is easily matriculate the ball down the field. No, three and out. Three and out.
5:42
Montgomery runs into the line of scrimmage on third and short. And so the Bears get the ball back down 20 to 17, a millimeter from their own goal line with 3:31 left in this game. Eh, I'm sure we've seen it all, right?
5:57
[laughs] Oh, no. All right, so this is the sequence. They've got all three timeouts left, down three, 3:31 left at their own millimeter line, if you will. Uh, first play, they go to Keenan Allen.
6:10
He chucks the ball at the official. He's frustrated that no flag was thrown and that his helmet was ripped off. [laughs] So- I didn't really get that either.
6:16
[laughs] So- I was like, "Is there not really gonna be a flag here?" Uh- So already you're like, "Oh, here come the Bears." [laughs] Uh, but then Caleb on third and seven at their own four burns a timeout for no reason.
6:27
Mm-hmm. Because when you can save one and a half to two yards in that situation and burn a timeout, I mean, you gotta do it every time, right? Good God. Uh, so now they're down to two timeouts.
6:38
But they overcome both of those gaffes, both the Keenan Allen and the, and the timeout gaffes. They overcome with a hookup to DJ Moore for 25. The Bears then overcome a subsequent second and 15.
6:48
So at midfield, at the 50, at the two-minute warning, they've got the ball, two timeouts left. I text the group at that point, I go, "The Bears will manage to not win this." [laughs] It's just muscle memory, right?
7:00
Oh, man. S- I had no idea how, though. So new set of downs. They have second and 17. Nance calls a, uh, Caleb 13-yard run a six-yard pickup. Nance was not on his best game yesterday. No.
7:12
Two plays later, fourth and four at the Detroit 44 with 1:04 left, complete to DJ Moore, but called back on a commit pick. So it's fourth and 14 with 56 seconds left back in their own territory.
7:25
Caleb heaves it, and Kendall Villador is flagged for a PI on DJ Moore. Was it? Was it catchable? After a conference, which I was sure the f- the refs were gonna pick up the flag- Yeah, I thought so too...
7:37
they decide no, it stands. So first down Bears, 46 seconds left, two timeouts left still at the Detroit 25. They're easily in field goal range now to tie the game up, but they're thinking more.
7:48
With 46 seconds left, right, they're thinking touchdown. Mm-hmm. Down three. Moore wide open on a crosser. Caleb throws it at his feet. That's the next play. 43 seconds left.
7:59
Bears use their second timeout to prevent a delay of game. Okay, so they've got one timeout left. Next snap to Allen for 12, but illegal use of the hands penalty on Tevin Jenkins, so now 36 seconds left.
8:10
Second and 20 back at the 35. Still field goal rangy, although Cairo Santos has a problem with the trajectory, but still field goal rangy. It would be like a 52-yarder. Second and 20 back at the 35 with 36 seconds left.
8:22
Caleb takes a six-yard sack, and here is where the shenanigans begin. He takes a six-yard sack. His butt hits the ground at 33 seconds. Let's call it 32 seconds. They still have a timeout.
8:35
But now the, now it would be like a 58 or 59-yard field goal, so now it's not really field goal-ish. Maybe, but maybe not. So h- his butt hits the ground with 32. The Lions are celebrating the sack.
8:47
Caleb all of a sudden just starts to get his, fr- frantically getting his team in order, to the right, to the left. Uh, they're in order around the 15-second mark. Everybody's lined up with 15 seconds left in the game.
8:58
Again, they still have a timeout. The snap doesn't come till six seconds left.
9:03
So between the 15-second mark and the six-second mark, nine precious seconds where they have a timeout, they don't use it, not Caleb, not the sidelines, not nobody, no how. Not nobody.
9:15
Because, 'cause anybody on the field could call a timeout too, right, Gil? Yes. Like, [laughs] that is the o- I had to double-check that rule yesterday. Yes.
9:22
I'm like, you do have guys like Keenan Allen on the field that have been playing in this league- Yes... for a very long time. So you know what happens. They finally snap it. Nance and Roemer go, "Oh my God. Oh my God."
9:32
So then he throws it downfield. It's incomplete. Ball game. The clock runs out. What did we just watch? I think everybody had that same reaction. What, what just happened?
9:41
By the way, it was reminded to m- to m- e- I was reminded of that right at that moment, all 17 Detroit survivors in Cerca survived with that as well. Oh. Yeah. Yep.
9:49
Uh, and how, how rare is it for the network to actually run an autopsy on what just happened right after the game? CBS rolls it back- [laughs]... to the 33-second mark, and they show the sequence of events.
10:02
And by the way, uh, Matt Eberflus looked completely nonplussed about the whole situation. He was like, "Ah, that's too bad what just happened."
10:10
I, I just, to me, this is the most unbelievable thing that w- we've watched here in recent history. I might be forgetting something.
10:18
But I, if I'm blaming, right, and if I'm doing the Eberflus/Caleb Williams blame pie chart, I'm gonna go 80% on Eberflus, 20% on Caleb Williams. Oh, sure. Yeah, yeah. Um- If not more...
10:31
is this what Matt w- can we hear what Matt Eberflus- Yeah, yeah. Explain yourself, Matt Eberflus. Then we're there at, uh, second and 20, you know, take the sack right there.
10:40
And, um, you know, so we're at 36 seconds right there, and our hope was, 'cause it was third going into fourth, that we would rack, we rack that play, um, at 18 seconds, throw it inbounds, get into the field goal range, and then call a timeout.
10:53
And that- that's where it was, and that was our decision-making process on that.
10:57
Again, we were outside the field goal range, you know, so we needed to get, um, a few more yards in there, uh, as close as we can get, and then we're gonna call a timeout, and that's why we held that last timeout, um, at the end of the game.
11:08
How, in retrospect, how should you have handled the final sequence? Yeah, I li- I like what we did, uh, there. "I like what we did there." I, I like what we did there. Matt Eberflus, you seem like a very nice guy.
11:21
Uh, head coaching might not be your thing. Head coaching just might not be it. I, by the way, g- uh, we should save it for after the break- Oh, please do... 'cause we're about to run on the clock.
11:30
But, uh, the Caleb Williams thing, the word salad from Caleb Williams after the game, was equally, like, just stunning in its meaninglessness. I like what we did there. What?
11:43
The, Matt Eber- what i- I know a lot of people, there are some people who don't wanna blame Eberflus the most. Eberflus deserves the most, the most blame. You are the head coach. I don't care that you're a defensive guy.
11:52
You're the head coach. Mm-hmm. You must call the timeout. It's on you. You, you, have you not coached football before? By the way, it showed complete
12:02
es- it, it reflected that they never practiced this sequence in practice during the week, and they have to have a contingency plan. "Hey, if you get sacked, you then do this." Yeah.
12:11
They had no preparation, no discipline in any of this. More on this on the other side. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:25
Back on our numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander and, uh, Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
12:31
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer, and he was flaunting the so much more than a producer part yesterday with side and side, side of the week.
12:39
See, that's where the part, that's where the so much more of the producer doesn't make sense to me, 'cause that's just me being a producer. [laughs] Just trying to help you out, man. I appreciate it.
12:47
Oh, we get- No, thank you... we get tweets at Beating the Book, Charles in Connecticut at Hoop Homer. He says, "It doesn't feel like a Friday at all until I saw the 11:00 AM power hour with Zach filling in for Fez.
12:56
Shocker. He's looking for Black Friday deals, LOL, and I remembered, oh yeah, it's Friday. That's how I remembered to go to work." Dude, I texted you.
13:04
I, I was w- driving downtown this morning, and I'm like, "What is going on downtown? There's a billion cars." [laughs] Like, what is this traffic jam? Let me, like, Gil know so he can g- he can get here a little earlier.
13:14
And then I, uh, just drive right by it, and downtown's like wide open. Yeah, empty. I'm like, oh my God, all those cars are out there for the outlet malls. For the what?
13:22
For the, what, the outlet malls or whatever it is right here. Oh, the outlet malls. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Uh- It's 2024. [laughs] I haven't been in a mall in forever. [laughs] I know. It's so funny.
13:30
Intoxicated Savant, "Dumbo of the Week is already a runaway with Bears clock management. If a coach has a worse blunder than that, they should be fired before leaving the stadium."
13:39
By the way, Dumbo of the Week is a segment we do on the, uh, Beating the Book Megapod. I got about 10 of these, where it's like Eberflus can't be beat. Can't be beat.
13:46
Um, Andrew Ren talking about the fact that they're, uh, that they're flexing games in week 17, or there might be a bunch of p- potential flexes, and if it has any impact on survivor.
13:55
They're, they're all, they're all playing those games still, though. Yeah. So fl- flex doesn't matter in that case.
14:01
Uh, The Better Life Tim Lawson, "Cut to a shot of Gil pulling a Saquon reverse hurdle as he gets to his gate today at the airport." [laughs] I was, uh, laughing coming back from break to that one, Tim.
14:09
You're right, I forgot. Of all the moves I mentioned, I forgot about that one. [laughs] I would, I would pay good money to see that one.
14:15
Greg in Boise, Idaho, he says, "It's 27 degrees and I'm on the way to the game, and although Gentty is banged up, it's not gonna be easy to bring him down this morning.
14:23
10:00 AM football feels like six, f- feels like 6:00 AM work." You don't wanna tackle that guy in 27 degrees. Gentty and Travis Hunter both playing concurrently this morning in college football.
14:32
Las Vegas 514, "Yo, hope you enjoyed your holiday. Not a raisin in sight at my place. Tell Kelly I'm gonna try corn next year. Let's go."
14:39
Chris Hartman, "Gents, something epic is gonna have to happen to dethrone the leader in the clubhouse, Matt Eberflus, for Megapod Bozo of the Week."
14:46
[laughs] Mark Decard, "His attempt to defend his decision," talking about Eberflus, "is more of a fireable offense than the decision itself in my opinion." I, I agree.
14:54
Like, it's so, it's one thing to insult us with your football play already, but then to try to back it up, it's just- It's, it's unbelievable.
15:01
We were told, Elliot, uh, who produces, uh, uh, Lombardi before this, told us that so far Eberflus going to his normal day after Bears duties at that point.
15:13
Um, but I just wanna say this, I'm gonna say this again, a- and 100%.
15:16
Look, it sh- it cl- it sh- clearly showed that they never practice these situations when they're at actual practice during the week, and before every play in those late game situations, you have to have the play, the next play pre-thought of, right?
15:31
Yeah, yeah. And communicated. "Hey, in the event that we get, you know, the object should be we'll get a f- we'll get some yards, then we'll kick the field goal.
15:38
In the event that you get a sack," which is what happened, dot, dot, dot, "here's what we do." But he is ultimately, you just gotta just call the timeout. What are you doing?
15:48
So I j- I just wanna say this because earlier I said, "What's your pie chart?" Mm. I believe it's 80% Eberflus. He deserves most of the blame. You're, you're the head coach.
15:57
But I just wanna say that Caleb Williams to me is not absolved of all responsibility here either. Sure. Uh, and here's what Caleb Williams had to say. I just wanna read this transci- script.
16:08
This is, this is unbelievable. So on if the seven seconds that they took to snap the ball after being set was because he was changing the play, by the way, it's more like nine seconds.
16:16
Caleb Williams said, "Yeah, I ended up changing the play because with the play we had, 13 seconds, any play you have with 13 secons- uh, 13 seconds with no, well, you had a timeout, but with that situation, 13 seconds, make a call and try to get it snapped and take the shot."
16:33
Huh? What? Here's the other one.
16:36
On what he believes would've been the ideal set of decisions in the final seconds with regard to clock management, quote, "I mean," [laughs] by the way, I love what it starts with, "I mean, I mean, we could take a timeout.
16:46
We've got the guys on the field. Uh, they're a big man team, and we..." A big man team, by the way.
16:52
"They're a big man team, and we took a shot," meaning the coverage, "and we took a shot, and with that, you live with it, the right decision.
16:57
Everybody can, as we always say, and y'all don't know, but as we always say, you can always hold that clicker and press pause or slow-mo, but the right decision is if we hit that play, if I hit that play to Rome, it would be a different conversation in here.
17:11
So the right play isn't always, you can't always make the right play. You've gotta make a decision and go with it." Say what now? Huh? So what he was basically saying is, as fans- Is he just saying the-...
17:23
we can stop it, and we can rewind it, and we can do an autopsy like this, and it's easy for us to do that, but what's actually happening on the field isn't as easy as we're making it out to be.
17:33
Yeah, he's, he's trying to say the, what, the hindsight's 20/20 thing, right? But nah, man, like this is- So I just wanna say this about Caleb Williams. Listen, you've played football all your life too, right?
17:45
You've played football as a kid. You played it at a high level, Gonzaga High School in DC, and then of course at USC you won the Heisman Trophy. Let me just put it this way, Kelly.
17:55
If at, and we go months, we talk for months about who's gonna get drafted and who's gonna get drafted first. Mm-hmm.
18:03
If this were the re- if a NFL team asked him, and this by the way ought to be what NFL teams do heading up into a draft, if this is the situation late in a football game, what do you do here?
18:17
C- If this was Caleb Williams' answer to this question, this word salad of this, that, the other, all this- Not only would you not draft him first, you wouldn't draft him at all.
18:27
Have you learned anything about football either? Like, I don't think he's completely absolved. I absolutely give Eberflus most of the blame, but Caleb Williams is not absolved of it either.
18:35
I, yeah, I need a piece on that pie chart, too, to say it all fair to you.
18:38
A piece on the pie chart for the rest of the coaching staff, too, because I don't, for, if, if I'm a head coach in the NFL, I would like to have assistant coaches that care enough about the team that they should be screaming in my ear- Oh...
18:52
until I fire them or listen to them about whether I should take the timeout. Absolutely. I mean, there's no way that everybody on that coaching staff was in lockstep of like, "Oh, yeah, this is the right thing to do.
19:03
We are totally doing the right thing right now." I don't believe that for a second. And like I said, Eberflus couldn't have been bothered at the end of that game.
19:09
His expression after that game, he's a, uh, tough one, tough one. Anyway, Lions get by. Let me just ask you this. Do you feel any differently about the Lions after that game? Weird game, no.
19:21
I, I mean, I just think they, I, I, I mean, I think it started in the first half of like it was, "Oh, man, all right, this is what we thought it was gonna be. We're running all over these clowns. We are so much better.
19:32
Like, let's start making Thanksgiving plans already." Who, and- Mm-hmm... then it's second half, uh-oh, this is getting a little tighter. Uh-oh, it's getting a little tight.
19:38
I just, no, I don't really take away anything, uh, from that. I think it was just a bad game- I think you're probably right... not really predictive of what's, what's to come. I think you're probably right.
19:46
Um, Giants and Cowboys. Cowboys win. I have nothing to say, and I don't think we should spend any time on it. I really don't. The j- Cowboys won. Eh. Okay, great. You, uh, you feeling anything?
19:55
Actually, I'll save it for our reshare. Never mind. You're gonna save it for what? Did you see Micah Parsons' comments after the game, how he- Oh, yeah. That, that I would like to talk about.
20:01
Like- Micah Parsons after the game is, "We're gonna make a run." [laughs] "I feel like we're gonna make a run." [laughs] Okay. Uh, Cowboys win their fifth. Oh, man. Sure. Yeah, make a run.
20:11
What, what, is he, is he working for ESPN now or something? I have no idea.
20:13
Like, you know that they're, it's like, oh, good, we got three more weeks to talk about the Cowboys now 'cause Micah Parsons thinks they got a shot. Can I also say this about Thanksgiving football?
20:21
It used to be that we just did the turducken thing on CBS with John Madden. Oh. And I get it now- Yeah... that they're, they're tributing John Madden across the league.
20:28
I find the whole players eating the turducken thing after the turkey legs after these games the most contrived bit of day-long hilarity going in sports.
20:38
Uh, uh, the- Do you enjoy, do we, do they, the networks think we enjoy it that much? Uh, good question.
20:44
The other part of it is like do you really think you'd be that h- like you'd be hungry immediately for- No, of course not... a big old greasy turkey leg right after- Of course not...
20:50
you've played three hours of football? By the way, uh, Josh- Joshua Jacobs was just pounding down the mac and cheese after their game. I didn't see that. Speaking of which.
20:58
I'm also trying to figure out how do you get six legs on a turducken? That's what I was trying to figure out. Did you see that one? There was like six legs. I'm like, how, how does that work?
21:05
They're al- those were six legs, right? 'Cause it's, the, it, they manage to somehow do it that way. It's like the turkey, like- Yeah... do you eat all the bird's legs? That's correct. Yeah, it's always six.
21:13
Um, everybody knows that, Kelly. [laughs] Uh, Green Bay beats Miami in the nightcap, and this again, this is why we do guessing lines on Monday. Um, the first reaction is often the best.
21:23
Last week, remember the game I liked was Baltimore beating and covering the spread against the Chargers on Monday night. This week it was the Packers beating and covering the spread against the Dolphins.
21:32
Both get home, and the Dolphins do, excuse me, the, uh, Packers do it with a very, very dominant first half.
21:40
Um, and then they kind of also, you know, uh, Dolphins got back in the game to the point where there was one moment where you're like, are the Dolphins really gonna make this interesting?
21:49
And then they had the, uh, sequence where it was second and goal at the one. A-chan got stuffed, third and goal incomplete, then fourth and goal, Tua got sacked, and that was kind of the end of that.
21:57
The, uh, the, uh, Packers were leading 27 to 11 at the time. They end up winning 30 to 17. But again, they, they dominated the first half.
22:06
They led, uh, 24 to three at halftime, and it was a 213 to 121 total yards advantage. Let me just say this.
22:14
The number one bit of handicapping, uh, you know, that was stated not just on this show but on every show that you heard was the Dolphins have trouble in the cold. Tua has trouble in the cold.
22:23
If you don't believe me that that actually manifested, here's Dolphins linebacker Jordon Brooks with his thoughts. Okay, maybe not. Or not.
22:34
Anyway, Jordon Brooks, the Dolphins linebacker, he thought it was because we're soft in the cold. So I mean- He said it... he said it, not me. He said it.
22:42
I mean, do you believe that the handicap ended up being that simple, that the Dolphins had that much trouble in the cold? Um- I kinda think it was part of it. I really do.
22:50
It was, it was a big part of it, at least early, right? At least early. Well, at least early. They missed 30 tackles, didn't they? Something like that.
22:59
Yes, it was a, yes, [laughs] I saw 20-something, but yeah, it, it was up there. Uh, according to Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins missed 20 tackles- Hmm... which directly led to 132 additional yards for the Packers. Soft.
23:12
I'm good. Coming back. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Are you the type of player who's looking to get down $10,000 or more on an NFL line at the best price in the market?
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23:51
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Skill Alexander, we got tweets at Beating The Book. Best listeners of the game you are.
24:00
Grayson Rossi @GWildcats, "When Eberflus isn't coaching next season, on the Megapod instead of Dumbo of the Week, you should call it the Eberflus of the Week."
24:07
[laughs] He's had to have won the award more than anyone this season. [laughs] It's, uh, Anthony Lynn is kind of like on a Mount Rushmore of this, but Eberflus has really sort of taken over.
24:16
Cspackler @Expert, he says, "Keep it up, Gil. An NFL, uh, coaching position is in your future. We'll be sorry to see you go. How do you feel about living in Chicago?" Uh, I'm, I'm good. Thanks.
24:26
John- I love Chicago, but, but a lot of snow I love Chicago in the summer. [laughs] I l- I love Chicago too, but yeah, it's a little too cold for me.
24:36
John Balducci, "Listening 30,000 feet up on the way to a family vacation in Aruba." Hey, enjoy. Oh, man. His son and I enjoying a little Gil and Kelly. Hope you had a good Thanksgiving. Man, have a great time in Aruba.
24:47
Here, let me just give you a couple tips about Aruba, if you will.
24:50
Uh, it's beautiful, but, uh, they have the, uh, second largest desalination plant on planet Earth, so if you get a drop of ocean water in your eye, you'll spend about five minutes rubbing it out in some places.
24:59
Okay, okay. Uh, and then two, a lot of wind. Uh, I will also, uh, I will also add to that that the, uh, I did some very, some, some scuba diving with sharks that definitely would not be legal in the United States.
25:11
Oh, really? It was a great time. Yeah, yeah. But, uh, well, you gotta get that fear of d- you know, just your life being in complete danger for that real excitement, yeah. [laughs] I'm, I'm good with that.
25:20
The, uh, the wind thing is so, uh, the, their national tree or their iconic tree is the bone fini tree, which is like a slanted tree. That's how windy it is. But it's lovely. It is lovely. Aruba's awesome.
25:29
It is a great time. Yeah, you have a great time. Uh, Pat Moran, "Gil, Caleb's word salad." Uh, this is what I love about listeners, 'cause everybody has a different opinion.
25:35
Uh, Pat Moran, "Gil, Caleb's word salad is because he's clearly trying to think of something to say that wouldn't throw his incompetent coaching staff under the bus. This is 99.9% on Eberflus."
25:47
Eh, I'm gonna respectfully disagree. I think it's a little lower than that. "Respect the process. Gil sp- Gil spitting absolute facts about Caleb Williams. Did you hear Goff's response? LOL.
25:57
He was even shocked it ended that way. Respect."
25:59
Um, so I mean, like again, there's differing opinions going around, but I'm just saying here I am p- pretty firm in my opinion that it is mostly Eberflus, and that the buck stops with him, period.
26:10
But Caleb is not absolved, is not absolved. Like, you have to have some sense of the game as well.
26:17
And by the way, I know part of it is he's supposed to only do what he's supposed to do, and he's thinking of other things. Still, still, you play football all your life.
26:24
And again, if this was the draft process and he had given that answer afterwards, you'd never draft him, let alone first. Um, this would be a great time for that sounder from, uh, Merrill Hodge, but I guess not.
26:35
[laughs] Um, [laughs] I r- I banned it. I got award of the guys. All right, come on. I banned it, and now I want it back. Yeah, exactly. Whatever, I want it back. Yeah.
26:41
Uh, by the way, uh, and last thing before we get to Paul Carr here and some Premier League picks, I was mentioning before the break, going back to the Dolphins and the Packers, could it be that the very simple handicap that everybody, including ourselves, were talking about before this game is the Dolphins going to Green Bay in the cold, what could possibly happen?
26:59
And we cited all those stats about below 40 degrees at kickoff. The Dolphins had lost 11 in a row. Tua as a pro was 0 and 4, and his QBR was 21.
27:09
Tua's stats were great last night, by the way, but, you know, for those who doubt that that was as simple a handicap as, uh, that, that came to manifest in the end, well, Dolphins linebacker Jordon Brooks had this to say about it.
27:23
Uh, I feel like we let the elements control the way that we played. Uh, as a group, I thought we were soft. Um, simple as that. I thought we were soft today.
27:36
Well, if you didn't get that, he said he c- he, "We let the elements control how we played today"- Yep... is what Jordon Brooks said. That's a Miami Dolphin himself saying that.
27:43
Uh, noted Miami Dolphins fan Paul Carr joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, @PaulCarr.
27:49
He's here to, uh, talk Premier League, but we gotta get his, uh, thoughts, of course, on the Dolphins. He is the, uh, host of the Expected Value podcast and of course works at True Media Networks as well.
27:58
What do you have to say for yourself, Paulie? I'll say this. My dad grew up in Miami, which is why I'm a Dolphins fan, so he lived there the first, you know, 20-some odd years of his life. Moved up to Kansas.
28:10
40 years later, he still didn't handle the cold very well. [laughs] Your dad. Again- Yeah... this is just, you know, handicapped, whatever. These are guys who didn't necessarily grow up there.
28:20
A lot of them grew up in the cold. But there's, there is something, I don't know if it's a one or 2% or more than that- Yeah... but there is something to,
28:27
we live in this perfect place, especially this time of year when Miami is perfect weather from, like now through March or something. Gorgeous, yes. And you go somewhere that's s- 50 degrees colder and miserable.
28:37
So there is something. I, again, I don't know how to quantify it, but there is something. I've seen it firsthand. I would agree with that assessment.
28:44
I don't know how to quantify it, but Miami, the Miami might, Miami at this time of year might be my favorite place on Earth. Uh, it w- and, and we always- You don't wanna leave it... we always talk about preseason.
28:52
I think the Dolphins is one of the most difficult schedules to build because you have to balance the away teams going to Miami early- Mm...
29:00
in the season when it's so hot versus how often you're gonna send the Dolphins up into the s- up into the snow. Yeah. Yep. Well, absolutely.
29:08
Um- It, it's always been the trade-off where it seems like the Dolphins, back in the, the '90s, they would host the Bills in September and make- Right...
29:14
the Bills wear their dark blues and melt, and the Bills would then host the Dolphins in December, and that would go as expected as well.
29:20
So it's, it's the eternal balance where you just gotta trade off one good environment for a bad one as a Dolphins fan. Yeah, that never, that late game in Buffalo never seemed to work out well- [laughs]...
29:29
for the Dolphins. No, no. No. We'll just redo divisions. AFC Northeast, um- There you go... Do- by the way, Dolphins done? They're not making the playoffs? You, or are you still harboring hope here?
29:39
I mean, there's a glimmer. They gotta run the table pretty much. Um, I feel a little better now than two, three weeks ago when Houston looked better and San Francisco looked better.
29:47
But, I mean, even if they were significant favorites in all five games, which they won't be, I mean, you just gotta win all five, and the probability's not great, especially going on the road to Houston, and I guess the Niners will be better in a few weeks.
29:58
But, so there's a glimmer. But, you know, last year they were in a little bit of a similar spot, and they blew a game against Tennessee around now on a Thursday night. There's just no margin for error.
30:07
Yeah, the 5-7 Dolphins, 5-7 Dolphins, home Jets, at Texans, home Niners, at Browns, at Jets. Not the worst. Not the worst schedule. Not the worst. It's not awful. Yeah. But, but yeah. To, to the Premier League, sir.
30:19
First of all, before, can, will you take a listener question from, uh, from Tim Lawson at The Better Life first? Uh, all right. All right, I'm ready. His question i- [laughs]
30:26
His question is this: "If Paul doesn't pick something in the Man U-Everton match, I'd still love to hear his thoughts on this line if there's time." I do not have a pick in that match. I'm pulling up the line right now.
30:37
And see United at minus 180. That's, that's a little steep for me. The... I tell you,
30:45
anytime you get a draw above plus 300 and it's a plus 330, it's kind of tempting to me, but I don't really have much faith in this Everton team either.
30:51
They're, they've kind of been playing below where I think they should be all season. So this is probably gonna be a stay-away game for me. Okay. Um, and then what about Man City? Did I see this right? Oh, man.
31:02
What i- what is this? They, they haven't won in six games here, six matches?
31:06
They've lost fi- they had lost five in a row before the midweek Champions League game, and they were up 3-nil on Feyenoord with 15 minutes left, and it ended up as a 3-3 draw. Oh, man.
31:16
And, and Feyenoord's a decent Dutch team, but again, they're a decent Dutch team, not one of the two, three best teams in the world. Um, City's just in kind of a free fall. I mean- Whew...
31:27
I would maybe kind of compare them to the 49ers this year in the sense that just there's been some injuries, which is a major factor. Like Rodri is the central midfielder for Man City.
31:38
He just won Ballon d'Or as the best player in the world. He's out for the year, uh, and they haven't been able to replace him. Uh, Kevin De Bruyne has been out. He's one of the more creative players on the team.
31:49
And they're just not as deep as they used to be. Guys are getting older. It's, it's kind of a wheels falling off season.
31:57
And I say all that, they're still in second place in the Premier League, but eight points back of Liverpool right now. W- Paul, when, when would you guess, I mean, the last time...
32:03
We're looking on the three-way line, I know y- you have a play in this game, but two, plus 235 on Man City. When's the last time you'd be able to get over two to one on Man City in any game? I, I can't imagine.
32:15
Um, and they're also the third title favorite now. They're, and Liverpool's, like, minus 120 or something, and Arsenal's a little bit better than City.
32:22
I was trying to do some research on the last time City was the third favorite. I, I didn't find it. It might have been a brief spell at some point a couple years ago when they had a down start.
32:30
But it's wild just seeing these numbers next to Man City's name. Are you on Liverpool Sunday versus Man City? I am. As tempting as plus 200 north of that is on Man City, I still have to go with Liverpool.
32:41
I'm not, I'm not betting on City until I see something. And they haven't shown anything for over a month. Uh, Liverpool should have Trent Alexander-Arnold back.
32:47
City, on top of having Rodri out, has, uh, their, probably his two top replacements may not play in John Stones and Mateo Kovačić.
32:54
So, I mean, if City comes out and gets a result out of this game, good on them, but I will stick with Liverpool at plus 110 until I see something out of Man City. All right.
33:03
That's on Sunday, but you have two tomorrow as well. Yep. Brentford first-half win against Leicester City, plus 115. Brentford has the most first-half goals in the league.
33:11
Leicester is tied for the fewest and conceded a lot. Uh, Brentford's just come out firing. They're the team that scored all those early goals we talked about earlier in the season. And I have Nottingham Forest.
33:21
I think Tim asked about this last week. We'll take Forest, uh, to win against Ipswich at home, minus 140.
33:27
Uh, Forest has lost a couple in a row, but to Arsenal and Newcastle, and they've void, uh, worse teams at home for most of the season, especially Ipswich relegation threatened, so I'll take Forest to win at minus 140.
33:37
Okay. Uh, Brentford first-half win versus Leicester City tomorrow. Nottingham Forest to win versus Ipswich Town. Always shop around for the, uh, the prices on these. And then Sunday, Liverpool to beat Man City.
33:51
Wants to see something from Man City before he, uh, stops the fade. Those are your three-pack from, uh, Paul Carr. Moving the chains every week here on The Numbers Game. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. Thank you.
34:00
Have a good weekend. You too. Great story about his dad. 40 years later, still wasn't ac- [laughs] still wasn't acclimated. Jason Weingarten and your Larceny smooth bet of the week next.
34:08
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game. Un partido de numeros. Live from Circa. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin.
34:25
Um, you were saying off air you can't, uh, you can't stand these Peyton Manning commercials? Yeah, I'm not liking those. Not liking those. I kind of dig them. Peyton Manning where he's in the debating one. Really?
34:34
All right. So the P- Peyt- the Pey- Peyton Manning [laughs]- Yeah... that's tough to say. [laughs] Peyton. I know, it's the whole point of the j- the whole commercial. Right.
34:41
The Peyton Manning one was funny the first, like, two times. Now I'm sick of it, and the debating Manning one is just awful. I quite enjoy them. I, the one that I- It makes me sad though, 'cause it's like Will Ferrell.
34:50
Like, Peyton Manning commercials used to be hilarious to me. I think he's a funny guy. I think the Will Ferrell ones are terrible, and I, and I think we can stop running the, uh, what the world needs now guy singing.
35:01
Oh, yeah. They run that one f- far too much. The one that gets stuck in my head all the time is the blue jeans one. Like, I don't even know what, the blue jeans song or whatever, and it's, like, a Levi's commercial.
35:10
Oh, I don't know that one. No. You w- you would if I played it for you. Okay. Um, well, let me just read this one tweet- Yeah... 'cause, again, this goes back to the Everfloos thing again. This is from MattMay11.
35:20
"I'm 50/50 on who's at fault," he says. "Everfloos, I think, is protecting Caleb at the press conference." Remember we had a tweet earlier that said Caleb was protecting the coaching staff.
35:29
Matt's opinion is Everfloos was protecting, uh, Caleb at the press conference. Everfloos said he had the play racked, so they should have snapped that ball well before they did. Ball has to be snapped sooner.
35:38
That's why I contend there's blame to go around, but I would still put more on Everfloos. But Caleb is, again, not absolved. Which brings us to our Larceny smooth bet of the week. Larceny Bourbon, everybody.
35:51
Uh, with our smooth bet of the week every week, presented by Larceny Wheated Bourbon. Lock in a win and seize tonight. Bardstown, Kentucky. 46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely.
36:02
Kelly, uh, we harken back to a bet I made earlier in the week. Ashton Gentry plus 750 to win the Heisman Trophy. A little over an hour from now, Ashton Gentry will suit up for Boise State.
36:12
Uh, the presumptive favorite, not the presumptive favorite, the presumptive winner, I should say, but the absolute favorite for the Heisman Trophy right now, Travis Hunter, who's about minus 750, minus 800-ish.
36:22
Uh, he will suit up for the Colorado Buffaloes here at the same time, a little over an hour from now. But I made the case earlier this week, and I stick by it.
36:29
I, I grabbed Gentry at plus 750, because I believe that this is the year, because no quarterback has stood out in a way where there's an obvious quarterback to win the Heisman.
36:39
Not Cam Ward, not Dylan Gabriel, not anybody who has put themselves so far above the fray that they should absolutely win this.
36:47
So you have a year where you can actually, you know, legitimately give it to a non-quarterback. Voters, 938 of them, Heisman voters, should take the opportunity to give it to a non-quarterback.
36:57
And so at the top of the Heisman, uh, market, you do see two non-quarterbacks.
37:01
Travis Hunter, who plays both ways for the University of Colorado, and Ashton Gentry, who is rewriting the record book for running backs at Boise State, but rewriting him nationally.
37:12
Um- Travis Hunter right now minus 800, Ashton Jeanty six to one currently. I still like it at that number for the Heisman.
37:18
Here's the deal, and I, I threw these up earlier in the week when talking about these, um, um, you know, buttressing my point about Ashton Jeanty.
37:24
Um, running backs, this is from CFB Talk Daily, running backs in college football history with 2,000 rushing yards and 25 rushing touchdowns in 11 games. Barry Sanders, Ricky Williams, Ashton Jeanty.
37:36
Yeah, that's a pretty good list. His, his 2,062 rushing yards through 11 games, the most in college football since LaDainian Tomlinson did it in 2000. That was via Reddit.
37:43
Um, if you want some other ways to sort of couch Ashton Jeanty's season, uh, here might be another one.
37:50
This is from, uh, DraftKings, Ashton Jeanty's 2024 season looking a bit familiar, comparing it to 2015 and Derrick Henry's Heisman year in 2015. Ashton Jeanty, 11 games played, Derrick Henry 13.
38:01
Ashton Jeanty with 2,062 yards, Derrick Henry with 1,986. Uh, Jeanty leading in touchdowns. Jeanty leading in yards per carry big time, 7.5 to 5.9, and yards per game, 187.5 to 152.8. Again, I get it.
38:15
Derrick Henry played in the SEC for Alabama against competition that Ashton Jeanty did not.
38:20
By the way, someone on Twitter yesterday pointed out, "Hey, Ashton Jeanty probably doesn't have as good of a line either as Derrick J- as Derrick Henry did." Um- Yeah, great point...
38:29
this is from FFB Fanatics, Football Fanatics, "If Ashton Jeanty doesn't win the Heisman over Travis Hunter, it just solidifies this is turning into a popularity contest and not the best player in college football award."
38:38
Because if you look at those categories that are listed there, Ashton Jeanty, right, we're talking rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, yards from scrimmage, rushing touchdowns, touchdowns from scrimmage, total touchdowns, total points, Boise State total offense.
38:51
He's first in almost all of those. Travis Hunter is awesome. Don't get me wrong. It's amazing to play both sides of the ball, right? But it's what I referred to as a flex earlier in the week.
39:03
It's not like that translates to the pros. He's not gonna play both sides in the pros. He's probably gonna play corner. So I don't wanna hear that argument either.
39:10
It's this cool thing which absolutely he's a fantastic player. I bet on Colorado a lot. I love Travis Hunter. Great kid. So is Ashton Jeanty.
39:19
I'm not taking anything away from him, but I'm talking about a bet, and if you're giving me plus 750, which is what it was earlier this week, and now it's six to one, and I'd still bet it at that.
39:28
I think this is the year where we get enough of those 938 voters to say, "Wow, those numbers are sick."
39:36
And my point is if you don't give it to Ashton Jeanty here, you should never, ever consider giving it to another running back again, which I get magically if some running back plays for Alabama and has a great season, they'll rediscover running backs.
39:50
But Ashton Jeanty should not be punished in any way for some perceived, "Oh, he plays in the Mountain West." I don't wanna hear it. Ashton Jeanty ought to be your Heisman Trophy winner.
39:59
What do you have to say for yourself, Kelly? What do you think? You like that, uh, logic? I like it, man. Uh, the number, I love it. I absolutely love it. I know you- It's all about the number, right?
40:06
I know y- it is all about the number. I know you got plus 750, uh, earlier in the week. I, I would agree with you, six to one still feels a little too long. Feeling lucky?
40:13
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40:29
Find a bottle near you at larcenybourbon.com. ANG brought to you by Larceny Bourbon. Bardstown, Kentucky, 46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely. Let's find out what Jason Weingarten has to say about that.
40:40
He joins us from Under a Cloud of Smoke at Spreadapedia, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Jason? Good morning, Gil. Ha- happy post-Thanksgiving, Black Friday to you guys.
40:50
Uh, that was a nice, nice little, uh, conversation that- What do you- Or mo- monologue for you. [laughs] What do, what do you think? You're not buying it? No, I totally agree with you. I mean, Travis Hunter's great.
41:03
Like, I watch a lot of Colorado games. I've seen him play quite, quite a bit, but to say he's the Heisman on a, a mediocre team because he plays wide receiver and he's a very good cornerback, but
41:17
can't, can't get my vote if I was one of those 930 voters. I'd be on Team, uh, Ashton Jeanty. Yeah, Boise State appears to be controlling their own destiny here. Um, after Tulane's loss yesterday, that helps as well.
41:29
And, uh, Colorado does not control their own destiny to get to the college football playoff, so it's, uh, it's gonna be fascinating here. Did you bet anything NFL Week 13 this weekend? Uh, not a ton of NFL.
41:40
I did bet the, uh, Colorado game today actually, though. Okay. What do you got? I, I bet, uh, Oklahoma State plus 16 and a half.
41:47
I think that's a lot of points for, uh, for a team that couldn't hang with Kansas last week.
41:52
And, you know, I, I've, like I've said, I think, I think based on what the perception of Deion Sanders was at the beginning of the season, the fact that they've competed so well is probably an accomplishment for Colorado, but I, I still don't see this as a playoff team.
42:07
I don't see them as a good team. They, they just happen to be a team that's won more games than expected this year according to me. I mean, it's a great season, right?
42:17
No, no doubt about it, it's a great season, and good on Deion and good on those kids. Um, but they're... Listen, the Big 12 is still a mess.
42:24
The Big 12, nine teams, nine, still have a scenario where they could get to the Big 12 championship game. It's re- it's unbelievable. Uh, now four have head and shoulders above the other five.
42:36
The, you know, there's five of them that need all kinds of ridiculous scenarios. Um, but four of those teams are, uh, are above the fray, and Colorado's one of them, but Colorado still needs help too, right?
42:49
Uh, right now, so, you know, Arizona State obviously is in the driver's seat. Um, BYU needs help as well. So it's, uh- But I think- Yeah...
42:58
especially in terms of your Heisman bet you were just talking about, one, one bad game today from Colorado should sink Travis Hunter, you know, theoretically, or it should at least shift those odds. Oh, for sure.
43:11
So- I mean, I, I think-... I'm hoping, I'm hoping for a, a game, you know, I'm hoping for a, a poor game from Colorado today, personally.
43:18
Yeah, Jeanty's a little banged up, but this is a, a defense that he's playing where he, on a good day, if he's fully healthy, he could drop 200, 250 on them. So we'll see what happens with him.
43:27
I mean, at some point, the numbers become so gaudy, how do you ignore them? Um- Absolutely. Any- I mean, it's, and it's, it's a, it...
43:34
Like I, I, I very much enjoyed listening to you explain it because I completely agree with you. Oh, I appreciate it. Thank you very much. Anything else besides, uh, the early game here?
43:44
Uh, well, you were asking about NFL. I bet, I bet the Chargers minus one. I'm waiting a little bit longer to bet the Seahawks. Like I said, I think you can bet against the depth every week from here on out.
43:55
There's, there's no excuses left for them. Um, you know, if I can get it down to one, I'm, I'm probably gonna bet it. Um, and then, then the Rams game, I'm, I'm looking at the Rams Saints.
44:05
I think the Saints get a little higher as two and a half pop in. I'll probably be on the Saints. I watched the Rams last weekend, and I was just so unimpressed with their line play.
44:16
I think the, the, the defects they have on their offensive line is not something they're gonna be able to fix before the season is over.
44:23
So, um, wouldn't be surprising if they kinda fade from this pace as the m- the month of December goes on. Yeah. But yeah, I got, I got the Saints. Yeah. Yeah, they can't block anybody right now.
44:34
Jason, sorry about the abbrev- abbreviated appearance today, man, but thank you. My pleasure. Uh, go Jeanty, and, uh, go Saints this weekend. I like it. Go Jeanty.
44:44
I didn't know Jason was on the, uh, the bandwagon, but thank you very much. Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke at Spreadapedia, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
44:51
Chris Felica on the other side, all of his college plays today and tomorrow. That's next on the Numbers Game at Vista.
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