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Nov 6, 2024
A Numbers Game | November 6, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | November 6, 2024 | Hour 2
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:34
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Every day you tune us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:42
It's my little buddy, Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Kelly Bidley. Look at him. That guy- I gotta give a little wave- With the quarter- 'cause I'm the little buddy... quarter zip. Little wave. Quarter zip guy.
0:50
Uh, coming up this hour, uh, Aaron Schatz standing by, the creator of DVOA over at FTN Sports. He's also an awards bettor.
0:57
We'll s- pick his brain about that as well, 'cause we have some questions from, f- from, from some folks.
1:01
And then Jason Weingarten, who, uh, was very clear to let us know, uh, last week, or the week before I should say, he's like, "I'm betting on Kamala, but I don't want her to win." Remember that whole conversation?
1:12
[laughs] Yep. He's, like, making, making sure to tell us all this. By the way, I just wanna read one tweet before we get to Aaron.
1:16
This is from RoadKingKR, Road King Kevin Ryan, who says, "Gil, has anyone checked in on Fez?" So do you know what this is? [laughs] So this is, by the way- Oh, Fezzik... Fezzik, who's- I love him...
1:28
who comes on the show every Friday, back-to-back winner of the Hilton SuperContest, the only back-to-back winner, um, kind enough to do so, his sort of, h- he's known for a couple things.
1:37
One, okay in real life, horrible human being on Twitter, right? He made that Purdue bet, minus 4500, when they ended up losing, right, on the money line.
1:46
They ended up losing as a one seed to Fairleigh Dickinson, a 16 seed. Last night he almost had his Rembrandt of all Rembrandts. Do you see this bet he made with Doug Gazarian? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
1:56
So he had Kamala in the popular vote, but he had it plus seven and a half million, I believe.
2:04
So he had Kamala, who was heavily favored to win the popular vote, plus seven and a half million votes, so in his mind, there was no possible way he could ever lose this, and the bet was 28K to win $100.
2:17
To win 100 bucks. [laughs] She ends up losing by five million. I- he just barely got by. Oh, man. But that could've been, that could've been his, uh, quote-unquote, "Rembrandt," if you will. Great marketing, though.
2:29
He al- he always keeps himself in the betting news cycle, you know? Oh, is that what he's doing? [laughs] He always keeps himself in the betting news cycle. Let us talk some football.
2:36
Kelly and I were doing power rankings before, but let's get to someone who actually really digs into the numbers and knows his stuff. He's kind enough to come on this show every quarter.
2:44
He is a pioneer in football analytics. Uh, he's over at FTN now, the creator of DVOA. It's our buddy Aaron Schatz courtesy of Aggressive Guest Line. How you doing, Aaron? Hey, I'm alive.
2:55
[laughs] He is alive, and he is here with us.
2:58
Let me ask you this, 'cause we were just going through a one, two, three, and we were saying, all right, the top tier, we w- we might not be able to agree on one, two, three, but we said the top tier is in whatever order you want, the Chiefs, the Lions, and the Ravens.
3:11
Would y- w- are your numbers generally in agreement with that? Yeah. I mean, I would put it Lions, Ravens, Chiefs, but yeah, that's my top three. And is there a significant drop-off from one of those to another, though?
3:24
The Lions are hugely ahead. I mean, the Lions are just hugely, hugely ahead. They are the number five team in DVOA through eight games ever. Ever. Wow. So, ever. So- It's remarkable.
3:38
So- Uh, that being said, right, like, you know, no Hutchinson,
3:43
and the Chiefs added Hopkins, so the Chiefs are a little bit better than their past performance, and the Lions are probably a little bit worse, but right now the Lions are the best team in the league, and it's very clear.
3:51
All right. By the way, DVOA, for those who don't know, is a, is a granular look play-by-play in the NFL at, um, and comparing it to the league average result of each of those plays.
4:01
Aaron gets that granular all the way back to 1979, I believe it is now. Yes? Yeah. 1979, love that. Okay, so that's interesting. So your fifth best team of all time through eight weeks, uh, ever in DVOA.
4:15
Do you remember- Yeah... offhand, 'cause I remember the Ravens and the Niners were super historically good last year, too. Do you remember what they were as compared to this year's Lions last year at this time?
4:26
They were lower at this time. They got better as the year went along. Uh, last year's Ravens were, like, whatever, like, 17th or 18th of all time at, through, through eight games. And then they- Something like that...
4:39
and then they ended up top 10. Both of those teams, the Niners and the Ravens, ended up top 10- Yeah... as the season went on. Yeah, once we played 17, yep. Yeah. And then Patrick Mahomes lurked in the whole thing. Yeah.
4:48
By the way, I have to say this also, 'cause people, it, it's funny to me when people react to your, to your numbers. Uh, Patrick Mahomes exists. It doesn't mean the numbers are wrong in the end.
4:58
He's just a sort of hack for the game. And so- L- listen, and, and we don't know how much of a hack he is, right? Tom Brady was a hack- Yeah... until the years that he wasn't, and then he suddenly was again, right?
5:09
Like, 2005, the Patriots were not as good as the two previous years, and people thought when we got to the playoffs that Brady and Belichick were gonna win it anyway because no one could beat them because they were Brady and Belichick.
5:21
And then they didn't. Another good example is the 1990 49ers. The 1990 49ers had won two straight titles. They started 10 and 0. They didn't even make it to the Super Bowl that year.
5:34
Like, it's not guaranteed that Mahomes will win everything, but he does appear to raise his team better than the underlying them.
5:44
Nine- 99ers, the 1999ers still managed to beat the Skins in the playoffs, I believe, if I recall correctly. Yep, lost to the Giants in the NFC Championship Game. Yes, that is correct. Okay.
5:53
Beyond the Lions, Ravens, and Chiefs, then, how does DVOA rank the rest of the top 10? We've got the Vikings fourth. Hmm. And then surprisingly, the 49ers and Bills are tied for fifth
6:07
The 49ers, it's surprising because there, there's no adjustment in there for Christian McCaffrey coming back. That's based on how they've actually played at four and four. Uh, then the Commanders,
6:19
and then the Packers, Eagles, and Steelers. Let's talk about the Commanders for a second. Do you have any points of comparison with rookie quarterbacks being this high in DVOA through nine games? Yeah, this'll be...
6:33
I mean, this'll be one of the best rookie quarterback seasons I've ever measured. Not the best. Uh, from a total perspective, Daniels doesn't throw the ball as much as some past quarterbacks did.
6:45
And from a per play perspective, it's not gonna match '83 Dan Marino. No. But he's been phenomenal, and the Commanders' offense has been phenomenal.
6:54
Uh, their defense has been problematic, but they just went and got a really good cornerback. So, I mean, they got the- Mm-hmm... exact right piece that they needed. They sure did.
7:03
Dan Marino in '83, uh, was the year he threw 48 touchdown passes, if I'm not mistaken. No, it's the year before that when he started- Oh... half the year. Oh, that's right. Yeah. And was, was very good as a rookie.
7:13
And then the second year was the year he had the 48 touchdown passes. 48 touchdown passes in an era where it was, like, big to throw 30-something, right? Like- Yeah... uh, just unbelievable. Okay.
7:22
Uh, let's break it down into units. Is there anything historically good or bad offense or defense? Or is there anything historically bad overall that you're seeing with any team? Two things.
7:33
The first is the Ravens offense is one of the best offenses I've ever measured. Wow.
7:39
They are fantastic both running and passing, which is interesting because their pass defense and their special teams have really fallen off this year, but their offense has risen to make up for it. Interesting.
7:55
I'm bracing myself for the next one. Is this a bad one coming up? The Tennessee Titans special teams are the second-worst special teams in DVOA history.
8:04
[exhales] And we know that because w- our eyes can even tell us that, right? They, they had just so many gaffes.
8:10
Yeah, just this week alone, they allowed a 44 and 25-yard punt return and fumbled twice on their own returns.
8:20
And, and special teams is particularly interesting because no matter how many football games we watch as fans and/or as bettors, for whatever reason we don't process special teams the same way.
8:32
That's sort of the secret ingredient. Even though you, you don't weight it nearly as much as offense and defense, I understand. I wanna say you said four, three, one is how it goes?
8:40
Yeah, basically when you look at the range of possible numbers, it ends up being that offense is about four parts, defense three, and special teams one.
8:48
But it is, if you're thinking of betting the Titans, that's probably a thing that you, most bettors, I'm not gonna say all, all neglect this, but that's probably the missing piece.
8:58
Like, if you keep losing on the Titans, we have Wi- Will Hill on the Megapod, it's sort of become a joke where he wa- he bet the Titans a lot. That's probably what did him in most times.
9:07
And, and of course, Will Levis just throwing the ball up in the air, that too.
9:11
Yeah, I mean, their Ti- the, it's, the only worse special teams through nine games was the 2010 Chargers the year that they led the league in both yards gained and yards allowed, and their special teams were so bad that it kept them out of the playoffs.
9:24
Wow. Uh, who could forget the 2010 Chargers special teams? Uh, let me ask you this. From your pre-season predictions, what is the team or teams that have flummoxed you the most at this point in the season?
9:37
Obviously, there's still a lot of runway left, but halfway by and large through the season, what's the team to the good or to the bad that you have gotten the most incorrect?
9:45
I mean, remember after two weeks when my Saints and Patriots takes looked good? [laughs] Yes. That, that has not turned out. The Patriots defense has completely collapsed.
9:55
And the Saints, you know, they, they have played better than their record. They've had a couple of games. They outplayed the Panthers this week, but lost. Yeah.
10:04
Um, but also w- not, not having Carr and not having Shaquem and losing Olave, they've just had a lot of injuries. So the Saints have collapsed.
10:12
Uh, on the other side, I mean, I said one of the rookie quarterbacks was likely to be very good, and I didn't know who it was. And it turns out it's Jayden Daniels. So the Commanders are much better than I expected.
10:23
But I kinda knew one of those teams, between the Commanders, and the Bears, and the Patriots, and the Colts, one of those teams was gonna be much better than expected, and the Commanders are that team.
10:34
By the way, about those quarterbacks, is there w- Do you have a surprising assessment of, of any of those? Like, uh, do you have one of them rated way worse than the general consensus sees that kind of player?
10:46
No, I think people understand that Caleb Williams was not good through the first three weeks, and then was much better in the next three weeks, and then has been okay in the two weeks since then.
10:55
I don't think I have Williams lower. I think people understand that he's had some rookie issues, but Daniels has been the one who's much better, and that Maye and Nix and, and Williams have all had some rookie issues.
11:07
What, what have you gotten... W- what's the thing you've gotten the most right that you're most proud of? I mean, that I had Baltimore as my AFC Super Bowl team, and they've been fantastic.
11:18
Who is the team that we would be shocked to see you have projected to make the postseason at this point? Denver. Denver. Wow. Very confident, very quickly said. I mean, I, uh, I did, I did not expect that.
11:29
And it's all defense. I mean, their, Bo Nix is not... I, I, I'm, I'm trying to come to grips with the idea that Bo Nix is average.
11:35
[laughs] Like, even that is better than my priors, but, I mean, their defense has been very, very good. I said that on this past Monday. It was, uh, one of the first things I said on, uh, Guessing Lines.
11:44
I'm like, "Listen, Bo Nix has been a whole lot better than I ever thought he would be. And so let me just raise my hand and, uh, a- admit to that as well." So the Broncos, very interesting. We'll come back.
11:54
Uh, Aaron is kind enough to stick with us for two segments. Uh, he is also an awards voter.
12:00
Uh, and to the extent that we can have a conversation, we have some listeners who, uh, would like to ask some questions, and we will get to those. I have some as well.
12:07
Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA over at FTN Sports. You can follow him at ASchatzNFL on Twitter. Coming back right here on The Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network.
12:16
[upbeat music][upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back with the great Aaron Schatz right here on A Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Gil Alexander.
12:32
Again, you can follow Aaron @ASchatzNFL on Twitter. That's A-S-C-H-A-T-Z NFL for all of his, uh, stuff there at FTN Sports.
12:42
And Aaron, if, uh, folks want to get all that you do, is that the, the quickest way to get it all? Yeah, it's FTNFantasy.com/DVOA. That's my page.
12:53
And you should definitely check out everything we have at FTN Fantasy, because there's a lot of DFS optimizers that are really good, a lot of betting advice, stuff on multiple sports.
13:03
Like I only do NFL, but we have really good stuff on everything from golf to women's basketball that has really good records. Love it. Over at FTN Sports. By the way, you made the right choice going over there.
13:14
I think, I hope you feel that way, when you were debating- I do, I do-... you know... uh, feel like I'm very, I'm very comfortable where I ended up. I love it. Um, okay, let's talk awards.
13:23
Now, I know this gets a little awkward for you, so I wanna be sensitive to that, because you are one of- Well, the later in the season we get, the more awkward it is. Yeah.
13:29
So at this point, it's not really awkward at all. Okay. Oh. My mind can change over the next nine weeks. All right. Well, that, with that entree, carte blanche now to ask you some questions.
13:37
First of all, let's, I'll go to a listener question first, 'cause they wanted to ask about Offensive Player of the Year.
13:42
We actually had, uh, our buddy Will Hill on the show yesterday, and he was talking about, "Hey, you know, Joe Burrow," I know Offensive Player of the Year and I know how you view it, Aaron, that MVP is a quarterback thing, and that Offensive Player of the Year is sort of whatever non-quarterback is best.
13:56
And Derrick Henry reflected in the odds for Offensive Player of the Year, matches that at minus 145, then there's Saquon at plus 215.
14:03
You have a couple wide outs there with Justin Jefferson at five to one, and then Jamar at 20 to one before you see a quarterback like Lamar Jackson at 20 to one.
14:11
Um, he was talking about Joe Burrow yesterday, that, that there's a, you know, he's thrown a lot of touchdown passes quietly.
14:19
The Bengals, you know, if you look at who they have lost to at this point, not a whole bunch of shame in that. They could still make the playoffs. Um, what about Joe Burrow in this category?
14:32
I do wish that they would give us guidelines that clarified these awards, but I do believe that if you're gonna call it Most Valuable Player, that it has to be a quarterback.
14:45
If they changed the guidelines and said the player with the most value compared to the averages at his position, then that would change. But if you're talking about the most valuable players, those are quarterbacks.
14:57
If you're gonna give MVP to a quarterback, you have to have some kind of award for all the other offensive players, and so that's Offensive Player of the Year.
15:08
So until they did some, or unless they do some clarification of rules, I will vote for a non-quarterback for Offensive Player of the Year.
15:16
Do you have any sense of the other, I've asked you this before, but I'll ask it again. Do you have any sense of, of the other 49 voters? Have you done a straw poll?
15:24
Have you done a mental kind of notes thing if they feel the same way? To what degree? I think it's pretty clear that some of them do and some of them don't. Okay.
15:33
Some people still kind of sometimes use Offensive Player of the Year as a second-best quarterback award, which doesn't make sense to me. Or they vote for the same player for Offensive Player of the Year and MVP.
15:45
Some people do that, really? Which does make sense to me, but I wouldn't do it. Interesting. Interesting. Yeah. Um, okay.
15:50
So you, Aaron Schatz, if you were voting today, who's your MVP, who's your Offensive Player of the Year, given that? Ironically, to me, the MVP is very obvious. It's Lamar Jackson.
16:00
Lamar Jackson is way ahead of every other quarterback by my stats, like way ahead of every other quarterback. And Patrick Mahomes is where Lamar Jackson was last year.
16:12
The stats don't make him look like the most valuable player because of the help that he's getting from all of his teammates, in particular, the defense.
16:22
You, uh, I wasn't gonna bring this up myself, but since you used the word ironically, would you like to explain to the folks why you [laughs] used the word ironically?
16:29
For, for folks who don't know, last year Lamar Jackson had 49 MVP votes, and I was the only holdout. I voted for Josh Allen instead, and this year I would vote for Lamar Jackson. Okay.
16:41
Lamar Jackson is your MVP, and so your Offensive Player of the Year would be? Probably Derrick Henry, maybe Jahmyr Gibbs, maybe Justin Jefferson. I'm not sure, but probably Derrick Henry. Wow.
16:55
Guys, where does Jahmyr Gibbs fall on the, uh, on the Offensive Player of the Year? Jahmyr Gibbs is 40 to 1, okay, if you are to go with Aaron's instincts on this. Uh, let's go to s- let's go to some others here.
17:07
How about, um, well, d- this is always one we d- we don't really talk about Defensive Player of the Year that much, 'cause it usually comes down to two or three choices every year, but who's your guy this year?
17:17
Yeah, it's interesting this year because it's been going to edge rushers, but I think a couple of the best candidates this year are not edge rushers. Uh, I see Chris Jones and Dexter Lawrence are high.
17:27
They are really good candidates. Fred Warner I think is a good candidate. Patrick Surtain is a good candidate. Obviously T.J. Watt. I don't think there's anybody who's clearly pulled ahead in this race. Oh, you don't?
17:38
Okay. So you think that that's mispriced then? I would say that's a little mispriced, yeah.
17:43
I, I think that it's priced based on the idea that we keep picking edge rushers every year, so the best edge rusher might be your best bet. Yeah. Okay.
17:52
Um, Offensive Rookie of the Year, I won't ask you who, who you have there. No, that one's easy. Yeah, oh, that one's easy, but let me just ask you this.
17:59
Have we gotten to the point, I don't even wanna s- I don't even wanna voice these words, but I have to just for betting purposes.
18:05
If something were to happen to Jayden Daniels, let's say he got hurt and he wasn't able to play anymore, have we gotten to the point in the season,
18:14
a- and maybe the answer is not quite yet, but how, how soon would it be where we've gotten to the point in the season where only, like even an injury couldn't beat him in this?
18:22
Three or four more games because you don't know what Caleb Williams- No... like, if Caleb Williams or Bo Nix was to t- really turn it on in the second half while Jayden Daniels got hurt, then he wouldn't win it. Okay.
18:35
But if they played the same and he got hurt, he probably would. Defensive Rookie of the Year? Uh, I would go with Jared Verse from the Rams right now. Very quick answer. Okay. How about Coach of the Year?
18:49
Oh, I have no idea. No idea. That one's tough. I- for a while I was like, "It's gotta be O'Connell." I think you've gotta give some props to Quinn. Yeah. He's the short shop, by the way. Always Andy Reid.
19:01
Always Andy Reid, and I think also Matt LaFleur for making Malik Willis not only look passable, but look good. Well, you are, you are a smart guy who will remember the Malik Willis games.
19:17
Will, uh, the, will the average voter of those 50 even consider those two games or three games? I don't know, but the Packers are a good team overall, and LaFleur is a good team overall, and we like his aggressiveness.
19:27
Can we go- Tomlin would be another interesting one. Oh. Tomlin is always interesting because from an analytical perspective, he's a terrible choice. [laughs] Okay. But what Tomlin does- All right. Next...
19:36
is all the stuff that we can't measure, like locker room, like locker room management and player motivation. Yeah. Right? Tomlin is king of the intangible. King of the intangible. He sure is.
19:46
Can we go back to Andy Reid for a second? 'Cause I find this fascinating. Um, I don't know if you know this, but Patrick Mahomes is his quarterback. Do you think- Yes...
19:54
do you think there could be enough sentiment about a coach of the year v- you know, in a coach of the year vote where people finally toggle to, "You know what? We gotta give this guy this award"?
20:06
I mean, imagine they go 15 and 2. Yeah. Right? They lose, like, one game, and then they lose in week 18 when he sits the starters. I mean, there's gonna be some sentiment there. But let me drill down on that.
20:18
You s- you use 15 and two, and then he loses, so okay. So, and then, and then one of them is a, is a garbage game. Okay. I- Yeah.
20:26
I, I, I think it's really unlikely that the Chiefs go undefeated, but they could lose, like, one real game and then sit their starters in the last week.
20:36
And then, I mean, they, they'll be two or three games better than any other team. What if it's 13 and four though, same situation?
20:43
Well, w- if the Lions are also 13 and four, then you have to start thinking about Dan Campbell. Right.
20:48
So that, I guess that's what I'm getting at, which is for Andy Reid to be o- you know, to be honored with this, the bar is still, it's gotta be such a cartoon record, right? That's, I think that's what we're getting at.
20:59
Yeah. Belichick was always the same way. Yeah. Y- you know, it's tough when someone is, like, so accepted as the, one of the best coaches year after year to give them this award in one specific year, right?
21:10
It's not coach of five years. It's coach of the year.
21:14
Do you think people would have a problem, do you think the average, and I'm asking you to speculate obviously, but the person who is obviously knows, you know, if let's say Jayden Daniels ends up unanimous for goodness' sake for Offensive Rookie of the Year f- if all continues, do you think folks would have a problem also giving Coach of the Year to Dan Quinn?
21:29
Do you think that sentiment would exist? Oh, I think that's, there will definitely be some people consider that because think about how often Coach of the Year is team with the biggest turnaround and a new coach. Right.
21:39
Duh, it's Washington. But, but might there be some folks who are like, "I don't wanna give both..." It, it doesn't make sense to them to give- Sure... both of those. Yeah. I mean, I might be one of those- Oh...
21:49
folks who will ask- That's what I'm saying... whether that makes sense. Coach of the Year is a really hard one for me. Like, the last couple years there have just been a lot of really good candidates every year.
21:58
I'm smiling 'cause you know where we're ending this.
22:00
The new Comeback Player of the Year language, um, has, you know, again, if, if folks are adhering to the new Comeback Player of the Year language, Sam Darnold can't win it.
22:10
Let's say Sam Darnold, you know, ended with a flourish here. Who would be your vote right now? Uh, probably Joe Burrow or Kyler Murray. Joe Burrow or Kyler Murray.
22:21
And I'll go back to a question I asked you last time, but I just think it's interesting. Damar Hamlin would not enter your thinking. God, it's such a hard one. [laughs] But yeah, he was healthy last year and didn't play.
22:36
If you kinda go by the new guidelines, then you shouldn't really go with Damar Hamlin. But also, Murray and Burrow have been very good. Yes, they have.
22:45
Like, Murray and Burrow have been better quarterbacks than Hamlin has been a safety. [upbeat music] So that's where Burrow might end up, in that category for you. Aaron, it's always fascinating.
22:54
Uh, look forward to having you at the, uh, quarter poll later on, and maybe we'll get you on a mega pod as well if, uh, schedule permits. Yeah. We'll figure out a week definitely.
23:01
Aaron Schatz, everybody, @ASchatzNFL, FTN Sports, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Thank you, Aaron. Appreciate it. Always fascinating. You're welcome. We'll come back. Jason Weingarten on the election and more next.
23:12
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. If you're looking for some action, our friends at First Bet have you covered.
23:24
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23:37
Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200. Head to firstbet.com today. We get tweets that beat in a book. Just wanna read a couple here.
23:46
This is from the Jalen Warren Stan account, "I missed your power rankings. Where did you have the Steelers?" That would make sense for a Jalen Warren Stan account to ask that. I have them 12th.
23:56
Uh, and this is from, uh, [laughs] this is from Brian M, "Since he's the only person who would know the answer, can you ask, uh, Spreadapedia," Jason Weingarten, "if there's any place I can bet Nick Castellanos [laughs] to hit a home run tonight?"
24:07
Uh, with that said, Jason Weingarten joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, @spreadapedia.
24:14
A man who, uh, who told us last time we s- we spoke that he was betting Kamala, but he didn't want his bets to win. Is that accurate, Jason? That is correct.
24:24
I g- gotta say, it's, it's a weird position to, to be happy that, that you lost a little bit of money. Fortunately, I, I wasn't one of those people we've talked about before that ends up going overboard on elections.
24:39
Um, you know, so, so I lost, but it, it was, you know, just a regular day of losing and hope- you know, hopefully it evens out by the end of the week.
24:47
Uh, really, really can't say I'm that, that disappointed about losing, honestly. It's, you know, what's there to say? Uh, well, I have a question for you because I, I have been, oh, man.
24:58
If you, if you, if you have Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETFs, it's a good morning. Uh, that's one way to look at it. Let me just say this.
25:04
Uh, I said at the top, I would have lost a lot more had Bookmaker credit accounts had politics available. You have one of those too. You didn't see it either, right? I'm not losing my mind.
25:18
Yeah, I don't know what the, what the decision or who, who made decisions to offer what. Um, some of my credit accounts offered politics, some, some didn't. Um, I'm not just talking about Bookmaker, I mean in general.
25:31
Um, I got lucky 'cause I actually did wanna bet more on Harris, and I ran into a limit issue, and I asked, "You know, can I get more money on, on the States?"
25:40
And they actually said yes, and it, it just never, you know, went through. I never, you know, followed up on betting more on some of the states, and in the end it saved me money, and I'm, I'm pretty happy about that.
25:51
Me too. So, you know. Me too. A- that's what I was saying at the top of the show. The, the, the skins that I did bet it on are all severely limited ones, whereas Bookmaker would have allowed you to go crazy.
26:01
Yeah, I would've- Yeah... I would've fired a whole bunch of bullets I probably shouldn't have fired and I would've been sending a, a big old check to- Yeah...
26:09
Mr.- I don't, I don't think, uh, some of our friends were as fortunate, by the way, so I wonder how they're doing this morning. Um, okay. Uh, w- what about your Dodgers?
26:19
We never got a s- we never got a chance to talk about that, which ends up being just, you know, the Dodgers in five. We all hit on that. I had six to one on that.
26:28
Um, a series that honestly, the six to one, by the way, the biggest bet was the Dodgers on the series at minus 124. The six to one was just miraculous, right?
26:36
Freddie Freeman walk-off home run down to their, a walk-off grand slam down to their last out in game one, and then the complete meltdown of the Yankees in the fifth inning of game five.
26:46
Um, you made out on that series as well, yes? Yeah, did well series. I got some Freddie Freeman three to one MVP- Ooh, nice... after the first game.
26:56
Um, you know, he was even still plus money in the middle of the second game, so that was crazy.
27:03
Dodgers were just the better team, and you know, I, I, I mean, we can drill down on how and why and, but, but at the end of the day, the Dodgers, they set a record this year that I don't think is gonna be broken anytime soon.
27:15
And, and I'm actually pretty impressed at, at, they, the, the Dodgers team had over 2,000 innings on inj- on the injured list- Jeez... and still won the World Series. Still won the World Series.
27:26
The previous, the previous record was about 1,200 innings. I could look up exactly, but it was 1,200-something innings.
27:33
So they had 800 more innings of injuries and still won the World Series, were still the best team in baseball. Um, and they're coming back this next year. They're gonna have a healthy rotation. Uh, it, it's crazy.
27:46
They, they already made, by the way, one of the, uh, one of the most impactful hirings of the off-season that probably flew under the radar for most people.
27:54
Um, a guy I know they just hired as a senior quantitative analyst. So, um, you know, the, it never stops for the Dodgers.
28:01
I mean, they're, they're already hiring the, the best people they can hire after winning a World Series, and, um, I'm excited to see what they can do this year coming, you know, seems like they finally got the monkey off their back sorta.
28:12
Well, the, y- yeah, in a certain way, right? Because their other World Series was the pandemic year, the sh- the 60 game shortened pandemic year. So yeah, in that, in that respect they did.
28:21
I, I think the most interesting thing afterwards, and we'll leave the baseball at this 'cause I wanna get, you know, some other thoughts, but the, the Dodgers after the series, if you're to believe some of the reports, sort of led on that their whole thing was they noticed that you could beat the Yankees if you were aggressive on the base paths, that their fielders were always out of position, that if you press them, if you constantly made them have to make plays, that they faltered often.
28:48
And we saw that in its most dramatic fashion, obviously, in one inning.
28:52
But the, I mean, that is a fascinating little part that might have, you know, might just alone have been the difference between them winning it and not, and it really kind of was because there was a world where the Yankees were gonna l- be leading after five games, right?
29:05
Three to two.
29:06
Yeah, and you know, and what it comes down to for me, and I said this on a podcast I did before the World Series, but the Dodgers have something like 16 director level positions and five or six more senior director level positions that all do scouting and advanced analytics and quantitative an- analysis.
29:24
And you give all those guys a week to game plan or more than a week to game plan against an inferior team, and they're gonna find a ton of ways to beat you, and that's what the Dodgers did.
29:33
And you know, some of these articles highlighted like the outfield positioning and how the Yankees, you know, did all these little things poorly.
29:40
And at the end of the day, you know, it just showed why the Dodgers were able to win a World Series even with almost 2,000 innings on the injured list.
29:47
They just, they do all those little things, and they do all those little things at every level. They teach how to do those things, and they make their players better and bring players in, and they create better players.
29:57
It's, you know, it, it's very impressive. Like I said, I'm not a Dodgers fan, but I, I enjoy watching them build and develop what they're doing. It's- Come on, you're a Dodgers fan. You can admit it, Jason. Come on.
30:08
I live in, uh, I live in LA. I, I went to two games this year, I think. Two, three maybe. Okay. Three, yeah. Um, do you make any baseball bets for the next season? Do you, do you take any futures at this point or no?
30:20
It's, it's so early. I mean, what do you wanna, like, like who, who are you looking at here to beat the Dodgers next year? If anything, I'm gonna bet the Dodgers again.
30:28
Um, I don't necessarily wanna walk up, lock up four to one- Yeah... so early, but Look at all the pitching the Dodgers have coming back. They're gonna be in on Max Fried. Sasaki's probably coming over from Japan.
30:41
They bring back so many of these innings that were on the injured list all year. Four to one's probably a gift at this point. You know, it's- Geez... it's the, I don't know.
30:51
I, I, it's long time, but, but, you know, good end of the season. I'm happy. Sha- share with us some, some NFL awards bets or futures plays that you're thinking of making or have made. So I don't, I don't have a ton.
31:03
I bet Evan Williams on, uh, on the Defensive Rookie of the Year, and then he went out and hurt his hamstring, so, you know, that's probably the end of a, was he, like, a fifth round pick or, I think he was a fifth round pick.
31:14
Probably the end of the safety winning that, that award. Um, MVP, obviously the guy's up top, Alan Mahomes. Um, you know, that's interesting there.
31:24
You got a lot of stuff with the Commanders kinda interest me right now just 'cause of, of what Jayden Daniels is doing. I totally missed the boat on betting him for MVP. He's, he's somewhat live for that, you know?
31:37
It's, it's crazy to think, but, you know, you, you gotta think a couple more good games will put him in serious, uh, serious consideration there.
31:45
Um, a bet I did make this week, I bet on Colorado to win on, uh, on Saturday. We haven't talked a ton about Colorado, and it's, it's kinda interesting to me because I'm still very anti Deion Sanders.
31:58
But, you know, last year when we gave them so much crap for how poor they played, all of a sudden they, they're, they're having a successful season by any metric.
32:07
Even if I don't like the guy, like, you have to look at Colorado's season and say at this point it's, it's been a success.
32:13
Um, and seeing them as, as what I think's, you know, a relatively short favorite over Texas Tech this weekend, um, you know, I, I think they're gonna be competitive and I, I, I hate that I'm betting on, on somebody that I think is, is, you know, a pretender, but, you know, the Big, Big 12 isn't, isn't, you know, a defensive league.
32:33
So I, I think Colorado's, uh, in a good spot this weekend, especially coming off a bye. Yeah, they got, uh, they got rolled by Nebraska. They lost to Kansas State. They've won everything else.
32:41
Kelly was just talking about this yesterday on air, like, how come none of us, does anybody know that they're six and two? [laughs] You know? He had that same sort of reaction to it.
32:50
Um, but yeah, lis- listen, if you, uh, if you, uh, bet Kamala and didn't want those bets to win, then you have the same sort of conflict in a different way with Colorado.
32:58
You, you are betting them even though you don't like them yourself. That is why we separate the two, right? M- making money versus whatever your personal feelings are. Um, so nothing awards in the NFL besides those?
33:09
Nothing else? Not a ton. I mean, the thing with NFL awards is that these markets have so many eyeballs on them and so many people jumping on anything.
33:17
It's not like I could pull something out at 100 to 1 and say, "Oh, well-" Okay... "you know, here's something that got overlooked."
33:23
Um, you know, there, there's a lot more competition in these markets, and they tend to, they tend to be more, more competitive and, you know, I'll, I'll find something.
33:31
There's- Give, give me what- Just doesn't- Yeah, let me, let me finish with this 'cause we gotta run, but give me the, what the skins record has to be for Jayden Daniels to actually be, getting back to your MVP thought, to actually be considered for that beyond Offensive Rookie of the Year.
33:43
What do they have to do? Over, over 10 games at this point. I'd say probably 12, but, uh, you know, he's getting there. The, it, it's all just about wins and- It's doable... wins, he'll be there. It's doable.
33:54
Schedule's easy. Um, so there is a world where they do win 12 games. I'm betting on it. Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it. Welcome back. It was fun. Thank you. Always fun to talk to you. Thank you, buddy. Likewise.
34:05
Jason Weingart. That's Spreadapedia, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Kelly on golf next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:21
Coming up top of the hour after a numbers game, money moves with Stormy Boni. Tony Stormy with, uh, Patrick Maher today on the show. That's right. That is one good-looking show right there.
34:30
I'm on the show, too, so it's really good looking. Oh, just, okay. [laughs] What are you doing on the show? Talking NBA. Are you really? Yeah. Wow. Nice job. 9:30 Pacific. Kelly on the show as well. Kelly never leaves.
34:42
Are you gonna be on Prop Points after that? Maybe. Prop Points with John Hanson from 2:00 to 3:00. What about Make It Rain with Adam Shaw? I bet an NBA prop tonight, so yeah, baby. Okay. All right.
34:49
Kelly all day long with all those shows right here on, uh, VSiN, the sports betting network. I'll be like Isaiah Wrinkle. He's just been hanging out, hanging out back there all morning for no apparent reason.
34:57
[laughs] He's like, "Well, I'm here already." Oh, he's not working on the show. He's just hanging out? He's not working on the show. He's just, yeah, he's just, he's doing his supervising job, I guess.
35:04
Here I thought the whole time he was the one making this happen. Um, how about some best bets for the day? G-BAank presenting our best bets of the day. G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN. Uh, do I start, Your Honor?
35:15
Yeah, you're starting. Um, I have made three National Football League wagers, two of which, uh, I made during Guessing Lines. That is the Commanders, there, I said it, minus two and a half.
35:27
[laughs] Uh, hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers. Let's go, Jayden. Let's go, Marshawn Lattimore. I also took the Lions giving the three, uh, in their game against the, uh, the Texans. They're playing the Texans, right?
35:39
Not having a brain, uh, brain moment. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, Lions minus three on the road against the Texans, and then I did add the Cardinals. I added the Cardinals just because I just feel they're a better...
35:50
How, how about this for a Paul Carr-like analysis? You ready for this? [laughs] They're a better football team than the New York Jetropolitans.
35:57
They are, and I think the Cardinals have, you know, people have a opinion of them based on a really difficult schedule the first half of the year, and the Jets are just not that good at football.
36:07
And I get it, they won on the short week against the Texans. That was a bad spot for the Texans, again, without either of their wide outs. I love the Cardinals here. So I've got three going.
36:17
Um, probably my three mega pot picks Th- three big surprises for me of the past two weeks. You, you higher on the Texans than me in the power rankings [laughs] Yeah... and you higher on the Cardinals right now than me.
36:28
Although I'm, I feel like I'm pretty high on them, too, but I just can't, I can't trust them. And I, I can't- Oh, no. There's no trust... I can't tr- yeah, I can't.
36:35
Matt and I did kind of our scariest second half teams to bet on and bet against la-, uh, last week. They were my scariest second half team to bet on because you can't trust them. Like, that's the, that's the tough part.
36:45
Oh, yeah. They should be great. Oh, if this exercise was who do you trust? Yeah, right. Yeah. Yeah, no, they wouldn't have made that. Um, okay, for me in the NFL, Broncos catching nine and a half at the Chiefs.
36:55
Eagles laid the six on the opener. Falcons laid the three, uh, on the opener. I do have a couple NBA ones I guess I didn't punch in there. I as well laid the number with the Thunder tonight, like JVT did.
37:06
I also played Tatum over his, uh, point prop. Uh, it's, uh, it's Golden State Warriors and, uh, Boston tonight. Yes. Little, little Steve Kerr, uh, revenge for the Olympics. I, I don't, I...
37:16
Nobody is too good to get that out of their mind. Oh. Like Tatum is gonna y- uh, and Jaylen Brown's not playing in the game, too. I don't know. Jason Tatum- I'm, I'm having some fun...
37:25
Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown really handled that well, didn't they? Um, yeah, yeah. They probably did for about as well as you could in that s- in that circumstance. So that will be interesting to watch tonight.
37:34
I have Warriors 11. Did they not win, did they not win the gold in the end? I'm curious. They did. They did. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. So maybe they could handle it better? Maybe. We'll see how Tatum, uh- Yeah...
37:41
we'll see how, we'll see how many shots Tatum puts up in the first quarter tonight. 75. Yeah.
37:45
Um, so yeah, Thunder and Lakers for JVT tonight, Bills in the NFL, Georgia this weekend in college football, and then, uh, what we had? Jason, Jason was on Colorado, right?
37:54
Jason's on Colorado, laying the three and a half this weekend against Texas Tech. Uh, that's going on as well. Best bets brought to you by GBank, the official bank of VSiN.
38:02
The GBank Visa Signature card is your best bet, delivering 1% cashback rewards on eligible gaming transactions and 2% cashback rewards on all other eligible purchases. For more information, head to vsin.com/gbank.
38:13
That's V-S-I-N.com/gbank. Subject credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Um, I have a, uh, shout-out to give here and something about what w- you used to do during primetime action. You ready for this?
38:29
Shout-out to Todd Wishnev. Okay. Because in February, right, I was on vacation. This was after the Super Bowl. We had a whole conversation.
38:35
He called me, and he was talking about, um, the fact that these, uh, ETFs are, were, were starting to invest in Bitcoin. Now, neither Todd or I are, are a believer, like these... We're, we're not Bitcoin evangelists.
38:50
I, I remember you and I having a discussion- We talked about this... about this though, right at the time. Was it on-air? No, I think it was more off-air. Okay. Yeah, so it's- Maybe lightly on air...
38:56
w- we are not Bitcoin evangelists in any way, but what Todd was explaining to me, and Todd has a very big brain. He's a very smart guy.
39:02
Uh, there, uh, the exchange traded funds, they were, they started to invest in the position of Bitcoin, and once those financial institutions start doing that, what, what he was basically trying to tell me, he goes, "Listen, this is just supply and demand.
39:13
This is just math." Mm. There is a finite amount of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is probably too expensive for the mere mortal to get into, but through these ETFs you can sort of invest in them by proxy.
39:24
And so, uh, with the, uh, result of the election last night, we all knew this was gonna happen this morning, uh, those have soared. So it, it's a fascinating thing, so I just wanna give a shout-out to Todd Wishnev.
39:33
I never would've done it without him. Um, I'll, I'll get out of it at some point, too.
39:37
Again, I'm not a long-term guy in this, but, uh, it has been nothing but a wonderful investment for the reasons Todd has, Todd stated, and now obviously it gets a, uh, boost.
39:47
We'll see how short-term or long-term it is from yesterday's results. I'm, I'm trying to remember. I actually, I think you and I had a lengthy off-air discussion about it. Yeah.
39:54
I think we had Todd on to talk about it, though. Well, I did have Todd on to talk about it.
39:58
It was just because he deserves all the credit, but here's the, here's again why I tell the story is because Todd, when Todd gives advice and then doesn't do it himself, lock for success.
40:08
[laughs] Now- Oh, he didn't do it? [laughs] Yeah, no, of course not he didn't. Oh.
40:11
[laughs] Of course he didn't do it, which is why I knew it would be a success, 'cause he's, like, he's just, he is, like, one bajillion and oh on advice he gives that he doesn't back up with his own action. Oh, man.
40:21
Uh, the other thing was, uh, we talked about ETFs, and then in my brain I went to NFTs. Sure, yeah. Okay. On Primetime Action, it was me, Matt, and Kelly. Matt Brown, Kelly Billand, and myself.
40:31
And we used to have this great thing where when one of us was making bets, the other two kinda caught on, or if two of us were making bets during the show, the other one caught on.
40:39
It's just called great on-air chemistry. [laughs] Great on-air chemistry.
40:42
The other thing that was going on at that time, this was, like, three, four years ago, is that Matt and Kelly were meshugana with these NBA Top Shots. Yeah. Meshugana, technical term.
40:52
So I had to, like, solo it while you guys were waiting in line, by the way, line in quotes, for these [laughs] for these- Actual... for these videos. You can imagine the off-air conversations.
41:03
I'm like, "So let me get this straight. You're buying a video that I can just watch on YouTube?" And the both of you are like, "Oh, yeah," [laughs] "... but Gil, it's the original. It's number one or number two."
41:12
I'm like, "Ugh." This is where I felt like I was 1,000 years old talking to you guys. Yeah. I'm like, "What are you doing?" Anyway, one of yours ended up being how much about?
41:19
I was just having a discussion in the back with Isaiah Wrinkle and Rob- Yeah...
41:22
Moreno, and, uh, the, I did get, I still get these emails, right, from them, and they're like, "Hey, Top Shot, check out the new whatever today."
41:28
[laughs] And I'm like, I haven't logged into my account probably, like, two and a half, three years or something like that. Well, I just don't do it.
41:32
Matt Brown and I haven't discussed it in, in at least that long, right? Mm-hmm. So I'm yelling at Isaiah as I've yelled at him multiple times. I'm like, "Just take over my account. Sell whatever you can out of there.
41:42
Give me anything back." [laughs] Like, there's thousands of dollars sunk into this. Yeah. Like, give me anything back.
41:47
And then of course just the old, the old knife right to the heart, Rob goes, uh, searching around on my page and finds one of the cards, and what it tops, top sold at, it was a Cade Cunningham, a, well, I don't know if it was a Cade Cunningham rookie card, Rob.
42:01
Maybe, uh, he's not on comms. He's not gonna be able to answer. Rookie card. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Rookie card. Yeah. Rookie, rookie video. Yeah. Uh, sold for five grand. You missed out on all that? Missed out on all of it.
42:11
Goes for, like, 50 now. Like, cool. Cool. You really gotta be s- you really gotta be on top of this stuff. When, when, when- Like, Gil Alexander-...
42:17
when I say Matt and Kelly would spend Just an inordinate amount of time waiting for this stuff to go down. I'm not exaggerating. It is top, top three worst investments I've made- [laughs]...
42:28
in the past five years, that's for sure. And- I, I don't wanna say the worst, Gil, 'cause I feel like there's probably stuff I'm forgetting about. Uh, sure. You know what I mean? [laughs] I'm sure.
42:35
Um, all right, there is a golf tournament, it's called the WWT Championship, best known for? Matt Kuchar, uh, stiffing his caddie. Matt Kuchar- Yeah. [laughs]... stiffing his caddie.
42:46
Or at least that's how I told you during the break, and you're like, "Oh, yeah,"- Oh... "that one." I'm like, "What is this? Oh, I remember that." [laughs] What did he, what was the tip again that he gave him?
42:54
Oh, I don't remember. Some ridiculously low tip. Some- something ridiculously small. Yeah. Yeah, I don't even remember. All right. Uh, this is, uh, about as easy as it gets on the PGA Tour, folks.
43:02
Uh, 120 players in the field. Look, these are meaningful now. They have the fall swing set up.
43:07
Everybody's trying to play their way either into the full PGA Tour field for next season, or at least into those signature events and the majors. Uh, you got 120 here, though.
43:16
There's only three top 60 players in the field. Cameron Young, probably the biggest name you'll recognize out there. He's coming back, uh, to play in this after taking a couple months off.
43:24
We really haven't seen him since the FedEx Cup playoffs. Uh, Max Grazerman, who you might like for a reason, uh, or two, uh, he's, uh, the short shot here, 60-1. What are you, what are you trying to say? Yeah.
43:33
Uh, you know exactly what I'm trying to say. [laughs] Wait, what? 16-1, he's your short shot. He's been playing great in the fall. Doug Gim, who you've seen me burn many, many dollars on. Oh, you love Doug Gim.
43:42
He's been playing great this fall. Yeah. So some of the names just at the top of the board. This is, when I say easy, yes, it is a long course. Fi- uh, 15th longest on tour.
43:52
Greens over 8,000 square feet, which is absolutely massive- [laughs]... one of the biggest you will see on tour. How many square feet? 8,000 square feet. Now, I, I haven't even gotten to the worst one yet, Gil.
44:02
Uh, fairway width, average 60 yards. Oh. [laughs] What? Tough, tough PGA Tour courses are less than half of that. What wins this, 30 under? Uh, 27 under won last year- Yeah... so it's gonna be right around in that area.
44:14
So you gotta look, like you're talking about, you gotta look for scorers here. The guys that I ended up on, Mattie Schmid, um, he's been playing great this fall.
44:22
Wes was on this guy real early over in Europe, um, last year, year before. T3 at the Shriners, though, uh, fifth at the Black Desert Championship, T16 is Sanderson Farms.
44:31
He actually rated out as the top guy for me in the field this week. Bet him outright, bet Harry Hall outright.
44:36
Both those guys can putt, both long o- longer off the tee, and then I did bet Cameron Young ev- even though he never wins. Just a class player in this field. All right, if you win, don't stiff your caddie.
44:45
That's the lesson here. That's right. All right, uh, we've done all we can do. Stormy is next with Money Moves. She's got Patrick Maher on with her. Enjoy, from VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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