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Nov 7, 2024
A Numbers Game | November 7, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | November 7, 2024 | Hour 1
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:35
This is Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:44
It is Kelly Bidlin right here on the Numbers Game live from Circa. How you doing this morning, sir? Doing well, man. How you doing? I'm, uh, I'm good. We're, we're totally not rushed setting up for this show.
0:54
[laughs] We, we don't, we don't get enough time to bond pre-show anymore, you know? No, no, it's a little, it's like the, um- It's like a whole three minutes less... a pit crew thing. It is, yes.
1:01
[laughs] NASCAR- The- The NASCAR pit crew. [laughs] Which is how radio is normally done, but we were so used to the D, like having all day to do whatever we want to. We got spoiled, yeah.
1:08
Well, we're headed back to the D, everybody. No, we're not, sorry. Just joking. Uh, on the show today, Crack, Zach and Crack, each and every Thursday on the show.
1:16
Zach Cohen, VSiN senior editor, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together, quite frankly. He's got all his plays. I don't know if he's betting any tennis.
1:24
We'll find that out, but he certainly is betting football and the NBA as well. Uh, we will get to Zach, and then Crack Unscripted. Uh, there is nothing like it.
1:32
Bill Krackomberger, whatever he, is on his mind coming up hour number two on the show, and we'll do our, uh, Larceny Bourbon Smooth Bet of the Week coming up as well.
1:41
Do we, uh, do we match on the, uh, Smooth Bet of the Week? No, we don't. It, it, it's just yours, but I- Oh, okay... but I, I agree with your play. How about that? Oh. All right. That's all right.
1:49
[laughs] So we'll talk through it, yeah. Uh, by the way, speaking of the NBA, which we did momentar- uh, moments ago when we were talking about Zach coming up. Mm-hmm.
1:55
Um, did you race to, uh, get all your Zachary Risacher Rookie of the Year tickets yesterday after he dropped 33 on the Haw- on the, uh, for the Hawks in a victory yesterday? A, a winning bet for me on the Hawks.
2:06
That was on a screen for the entirety, uh, the entire game, Gil. I didn't realize till the very end of the game [laughs] that he had hit 30 points. I was like, I was like, "I feel like he's been active, but, uh, what?
2:16
30?" It was one of those things that came across the crawl at the bottom of the screen, and I'm like, "Wait, what? Did I miss, like, when I was gone, did he w- is he a thing?" No. No. It just started yesterday.
2:25
No, just started yesterday. Um- Also, if you had asked me like preseason is this guy gonna score 30 points [laughs] in a game at all this year, I'd probably be like, "Nah, probably not." Yeah.
2:34
Uh, meanwhile, the, uh, the, I was gonna say the Bullets guy, the Wizards guy, uh, Alex Sarr, Alexander Sarr, his field goal percentage is horrific. Have you looked at this over the course of the season so far? Yeah.
2:46
I don't think it matters, though. I lo- I lo- love the opportunities if you're betting on Rookie of the Year. Hey, I'm, I'm, I'm g- I'm going from a complete betting perspective, right? Yeah. As, as we do. Yeah.
2:56
Um- Yeah, developmental-wise, meh, maybe a little bit more questionable. But yeah, he's, he's getting a lot of shots up, getting a lot of minutes. I, I do like him Rookie of the Year right now.
3:05
Um, if I had to make a single bet, that's probably where I'd go.
3:07
Also, uh, s- s- so making the joke about Risacher and the overreaction, even though he is, he is the short shot to win Rookie of the Year, but, uh, do you see the kid for, uh, Creighton?
3:16
I say kid, he's like, he's played at Creighton for seven years it feels like. Uh, Ryan Kochbrenner, who, uh, ended up with 49 yesterday. Yeah, that was wild. 49 on 20 of 22 shooting. Um, he's 7'1".
3:28
They were playing UT Rio Grande, I believe, Rio Grande Valley. Not like they were playing the 84 Hoyas, Kelly. You know what I'm talking about? Mm-hmm. What do you know about the 84 Hoyas, by the way?
3:36
Anyway, 49 for, uh, for him, so that was interesting in basketball. Um, tonight, Thursday Night Football. Enough of that baloncesto. Uh, you have a play on this game, Bengals and Ravens? You know what? I do. I do. Oh.
3:48
It f- it feels like the, the- I might too. Let's see if I can, uh, what are you gonna do?
3:52
Feels like the squarest, most boring thing ever, but this Ravens offense is so high-powered, and this Bengals defense can't stop anything. I'd play team total over on the Ravens. Team total over on the Ravens.
4:03
Yeah, 29 and a half, uh, is where I got it at yesterday. Um, I don't, I just sat and stared at this all week. I think if I, if I had to play a side, Gil, I'd probably take the points with Cincinnati.
4:14
Massive game tonight, though, for [laughs] if you're someone- Oh... like me and my friend at the desk here, who maybe, uh, got a division ticket on the Bengals, uh, roughly, what, seven months ago or something like that.
4:24
That was our first bet by far this season. First bet. Yeah. Yeah, first NFL bet.
4:27
I mean, this game, it's a must-win game for Cincinnati, and if they do win it, they're, they are lurking right there for the, for the division. They are lurking. That's as, that's as, we can give them that.
4:37
They're lurkers. Um, by the way, we went over yesterday AFC make miss playoffs considering that, and we're gonna go over NFC here come, uh, coming up momentarily.
4:46
Uh, this game tonight, uh, always with Thursday Night Football, I lean heavily on the great work of Sean Korner over there at, uh, Action Network. We gotta get him on the show, by the way. Mm. Yeah, that's great.
4:54
And I always say by saying this, like I'm not familiar with him, uh, beyond this, beyond Thursdays. Maybe he does great work also beyond Thursdays, but at least on Thursdays.
5:01
Um, one of the, one of the things he points out, and this is, this has been a theme, we have done really well on Thursday Night Football talking about the sustainability of things, right?
5:11
A lot of sports handicapping is trying to identify what is, uh, sustainable, what is unsustainable, or as the kids call it today, what is signal and what is noise.
5:20
Um, Lamar Jackson, 20 touchdowns, two picks this year, by the way, in nine games, but he's got a little hitch in his giddy up still. He is not on the injury report.
5:28
You wonder, though, because last week, what did he have? Three rushes, uh, three carries for four yards. Mm.
5:34
So you wonder if that's going to be part of the Ravens' whole calculus tonight or if, or if they still sort of, uh, you know, pull back the reins on that.
5:43
Tee Higgins likely gone for the Bengals tonight, um, so there's that as well. Um, but w- w- I was talking about the sustainability, unsustainability, and, and Korner does a great job of this.
5:53
Um, both teams currently, what's the total here? 52 and a half. And this total has gone nothing but up. Yeah, 52 and a half, that, that'll be on the low end from what you're gonna find out there. Yeah.
6:03
I saw a 53 and a half this morning. I- I- the 53 is about consensus right now. Yeah. We're showing 52 and a half on the screen, so this has to do with the total.
6:10
So both teams currently rank high in red zone touchdown percentage. Now, what does that mean again? We've talked about this on Thursday Night Football multiple times this year. Uh, just give you an example, right?
6:21
That the Saints, do you think of the Saints as a good offense? They're a top five red zone touchdown percentage team.
6:27
Um, the Packers and Niners on the other hand, which most people think of as good offenses when they're all fully, you know, fully healthy, they rank in the bottom five for red zone touchdown percentage.
6:37
So all of that stuff tends to regress, right? Because it's not, your red zone touchdown percentage is not a a- it's not a true reflection of how good or bad you are.
6:45
Sometimes you can go full seasons and under or over perform on that.
6:48
But typically when you're handicapping, it's sort of your job to figure out, oh, they've been getting the best of it, oh, they've been getting the worst of it.
6:56
So in this case, with the B- with the, uh, Bengals and the Ravens, both of these teams, um, rank very high in red zone touchdown percentage. So they've been getting the best of it.
7:06
The Bengals, for instance, the last, uh, the three weeks before this game against the Raiders where they dropped 41 points, but remember the 41-7, was it 41-24 final, I believe it was?
7:16
Um, that wasn't over, but there was a pick six, and then the Bengals were set up, I think it was twice in the Raiders' red zone on turnovers.
7:24
The three games before that, the Bengals went 17, 21 and 17 in terms of their team totals against the Giants, the Browns and the Eagles. So throw that in the mix.
7:35
Also, that Bengals offensive lineman Orlando Brown could be ruled out tonight. He is, uh, you talk about the Orlando Brown and the Tee Higgins impacts. Higgins, uh, got the quad injury. He's probably out.
7:47
Um, Burrow's production takes a hit without him, goes, uh, 8.0 yards per drop back when Higgins is on the field. Just 5.5 yards per attempt without him.
7:58
Um, and remember when Higgins is on there, it tends to really help Ja'Marr Chase. Without Higgins, Ja'Marr gets the double coverage, um, sort of treatment.
8:07
Uh, when they played the Ravens last time, it was both Chase and Higgins. Just to give you an example, Chase went, uh, 10 for 193 and two touches. Um, and, uh, Higgins was nine for 83 and two touchdowns.
8:18
You take Higgins out, that changes that tremendously as well.
8:22
Um, as far as Orlando Brown is concerned, the Bengals also, um, take a big hit without him in the lineup as well when it comes to, uh, when it comes to rushing yards.
8:33
Chase Brown, who has really taken over in the backfield, they average, uh, let me see when we get the yards on this, 4.5 yards per rush with Brown, with Orlando Brown, that is, right? 3.8 without him. Okay.
8:47
So there's that as well. So I'm just, uh, I'm putting all this into the mix to sort of support the under here, right?
8:53
You have the absence of Higgins, you have the absence of Brown, which hurts the, uh, the Ravens stats both in the passing and the running game. Uh, when you go to the other side of the ball, right?
9:01
Um, and again, big shout out to Sean Korner on this. This is, you know, Derrick Henry time, right? One would assume because the Bengals are ranked 23rd in rush DVOA, Aaron Schatz's stat.
9:12
We had Aaron on the show yesterday talking NFL. Um, so the only thing about that though is the Bengals are actually really good about initiating contact early.
9:22
They've allowed the fourth fewest yards before contact, the fourth lowest explosive run rate.
9:28
So that perhaps could contain to some degree, to a degree enough for the under to hit, um, because you're, you're containing Derrick Henry in that, in that sense, even though overall you're not very good against the run.
9:41
So there's that sort of muting of it, if you will. Um, Ravens will be without Isaiah Likely, throw that in as well.
9:49
Um, and though they a- acquired D'Onta Johnson, he's only gonna be in his second game, so you wonder, he really didn't get really that much of an impact in his first.
9:57
It's probably too much to expect him to go nuts and have a big impact in, uh, in game number two. On a short week. On a short week. Yep. Exactly. So all of that stuff, right?
10:08
Seems to lend to the under, and again, right now it's 53. The strategery here though, Kelly, right? Mm-hmm. I may use that. The strategy here would be to wait. I don't think there's any rush if you, if the...
10:19
As people keep putting money in on the over in this game, the strategy for me as a, as someone who would want to bet the under, is to wait as, you know, as patiently as you need to.
10:28
'Cause I think this is only going to go up between now and game time. I could be wrong about that, but that's the instinct.
10:33
Yeah, what's the, what, what's the usual we see with primetime games, especially Thursday, right? Favorites and, favorites and overs, and that can't be said enough probably.
10:40
So yeah, I, I think if you are looking at the under, no reason to rush to bet it right now.
10:44
Yeah, and the other thing is, w- since Zach Moss has gone out of the lineup, Chase Brown has, has made the Bengals running game that much better as well. That also lends to the churning of the clock.
10:53
So again, I'm not touching the side here. I, I think on guessing lines, I guessed six or six and a half. Yeah, you were right on. Um, so I was right on that, and that's what it is.
11:02
I don't really see any value there, but, uh, if it's anything for me tonight, it's the under, and I'm sort of talking myself into it. Massive game. I, I can't wait to watch this. Yeah.
11:10
Feels like we got a great slate of primetime games this week. Feels like it's been a little while since we've had that. Um, but yeah, this is hu-- I mean, MVP race, this is huge for tonight as well.
11:19
Like, I mean, Lamar, you talked about the rushing stats. All the, all the Joe Burrow stuff we talked about this week, potentially w- who is it? Will Hill that said maybe Offensive Player of the Year. Yep, yep.
11:27
Uh, Aaron Schatz said maybe Comeback Player of the Year, so we'll see. Uh, he's got a lot of touchdown passes, but this would be a game on center stage, right? Mm-hmm.
11:35
Stand alone game where everybody's, uh, you know, you'd hope the voters would be watching everything. Right. But you don't know.
11:41
I mean, this has a big impact and, and they are human beings after all who could be influenced by something like this. So, uh, that's my thought. An under, if anything. And I'll do the Megapod after this.
11:52
Todd Wishnev, Will Hill and I will do the Megapod. Mike Pritchard is our guest. Oh, nice. And we'll find out if that is one of my three picks of the week.
12:00
I may Half game, no, a little game and a half behind Todd on the year Todd's the leader right now? He was way up. Whoa. Yeah, I've, I've cut the lead significantly. He's not beating me. That kid's not beating me.
12:13
Uh, we'll come back. NFC make miss playoffs next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. With so many sports in action, there's no better time to put the VSiN experts to work for you.
12:29
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12:36
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12:47
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12:59
Not doing the lean in thing today anymore. You notice that? Well, I, now you're gonna get it in your head, though. No. Don't bring it up. I'm much more upright today. You know what I think it is?
13:06
This is totally not important anyway. The, it, it, how loud it is in my ears. If it's louder in my ears, I'm like, "Oh." Ah, you know what? There's something to that. Well- There is something to that...
13:15
well, that's- 'Cause when you do, like, podcasts with people on remote, that's, that's a thing. Oh, yeah. We gotta work on that, by the way. Megapod coming up. Mike Pritchard. Pump, Mike Pritchard on the show today.
13:25
Miss Pritch. Yeah, we gotta get him back on the show, too. Pri- Pritch, please. Pritch, please. [laughs] That segment never really caught on, did it?
13:31
Never really, no, it kind of, just kind of died before it ever got off the ground. [laughs] We were like, "We got this great idea. It's gonna be Pritch, please. It's gonna be so fun," and we never really... Yeah. Yeah.
13:39
Yeah. We'll try it. All right, yesterday we did, uh, AFC make or miss, NFL make the play- make or miss the playoffs in that market, and we, we thought there was a couple pretty good bets in there. Yeah.
13:51
Um, I did not, full disclosure, I did not make any of those bets. Me neither. So today, uh, equal time, 'cause that's what you do, uh, during political season- [laughs] Good call... um, NFC playoff picture.
14:02
Now, Kelly, I did a, uh, I did a deep dive on this. Now, here's the thing about, you know, filling content for hours every day, is that you're gonna go through markets where you're like, "Oh my God, I can't believe this.
14:13
These bets are so good." Yep.
14:16
And then inevitably you're gonna run into some, which just out of the, in the sense of being thorough about stuff, you wanna cover it, 'cause you did the AFC, for instance, yesterday, but it doesn't often lead, sometimes it doesn't lead to a bet.
14:28
Sometimes the best bets are the bets not made. Mm-hmm. A wise man once said that. So I went up and down this for the NFC, and, you know, we did the exercise with the AFC.
14:36
First of all, I think the way you start is by saying, you know, in the AFC, I ask this on guessing lines just sort of off the cuff, which is, "Okay, here are these five teams that you think will make it.
14:44
Who are the, who's gonna fill the sixth and seventh positions? And if I give you the Chargers as one of them, who do you think will make the seventh?" The NFC seems a lot clearer than that. Yeah.
14:55
And so that's the starting point, and so that inherently makes this a little more difficult to find a bet. Because the Lions are seven and one. The Lions might be the best team in all of football.
15:04
They're going to the playoffs. Uh, the Commodores, they're probably going, man. Their schedule's easy.
15:09
I say it like this 'cause I'm a lifelong Washington fan, [laughs] so I can't, like, I, I can't believe I'm embracing this, but they're probably going, and the, and the lines reflect it, right?
15:18
Minus 10,000 for the Lions to make it. Minus 750 for Washington. The Vikings are minus 475. I think these are so appropriately priced, by the way, as well, and even the, because even though they're six and two.
15:31
So I tried, in looking for a bet here, I was like, "Okay, if you're not bullish on the Vikings," let's say you're bearish on the Vikings, and you're like, "Okay, let me look at their schedule. What's, like, the worst?
15:41
How's, what's the worst they can do?" Let's say they win only three more games. They still bank six, so they're gonna go nine and eight at the worst, probably, right? Barring just a spate of injuries.
15:52
So the Vikings, uh, yes, is minus 475, and then the Eagles, uh, even higher than that, right, minus 900.
15:59
The Falcons, who look like they're in the driver's seat, not look like, they are in the driver's seat in the, uh, NFC South. They're minus 1,200. They're a prohibitive favorite to make it. Okay.
16:09
And now you get to these other teams. The Packers are six and three, and they're minus 240. I just happen to think the Packers are really good at football. I don't think they're missing the playoffs.
16:18
And then the question then becomes, "Okay, so who's the seventh?" Yeah.
16:22
And the Niners lurk, and it's reflected in the numbers because the make playoffs, if you go down that list, you see that one of those things is not like the other.
16:30
The Niners, despite being four and four, are minus 160 to make it. So I don't really think...
16:38
I, I mean, I think those are your seven NFC playoff teams, but if you forced yourself, Kelly, if you forced yourself to say, "Okay, great, Mr. Man, I get it.
16:46
You think those are the seven," but, but if I came to you from the future and I said, "Guess what? Those aren't the seven," where's the bet? And so I think for me, nine and eight at minimum is gonna happen in the NFC.
16:59
I don't think there's any losing teams that are getting in. Yeah. There's too many good teams. What would be the team to replace that, you know, what's the team on the outside looking in?
17:09
What's, what's the team that I'm, I think right now is on the inside looking out, if you will, based on my prediction?
17:14
And the only thing I could possibly come up with, and I'm not betting it, because I don't believe it in my heart, but if you're forcing me to come up with a bet, it would probably be the Cardinals in and the Niners out.
17:26
Yeah. And so then I got excited. I'm like, "Let me look at those numbers," right? Eh, those aren't even fun.
17:32
'Cause the Niners out is only plus 135, only in quotes, and the Cardinals in is only plus 115, so I think this is remarkably well-priced.
17:41
It's kind of funny you say it, 'cause b- my, my initial reaction to what's going through this was Rams in, 49ers out, but I do think it, it's, it's in that area that you have to think about it because it, okay, we're division, division and wildcard, right?
17:55
If you're talking about the Vikings making it, the Vikings making it along with the Eagles and Commanders, okay, that's two wildcard spots that are taken up already, right?
18:02
So we're talking about who's gonna win the South, who's gonna win the West.
18:05
Well, it looks like the Falcons are gonna cruise to the South, and then it really becomes, okay, maybe one wildcard spot, and who's gonna win the NFC West?
18:13
So I, I, I do think, I, I think it is probably the most likely that i- if we're talk- we're only talking one NFC West team, so you really just gotta pick who's gonna win that division
18:23
And then it gets to, okay, let's say I'm one of these bettors who has the stomach to lay a big number. I think the Bears miss at minus 650 is actually- Yeah... is actually kind of appropriate.
18:35
You m- that might represent a little value. Sorry, Bears fans. Um, but I'm not betting that at minus 650.
18:41
The other one I looked at, because we talked about these yesterday when we were doing our power rankings, I was like, all right, what did Kelly and I, when we were doing our top 15, what did we also agree on?
18:50
We agreed on that both the, both of us said the Seahawks were not in the top 50. Mm-hmm.
18:54
And so then I looked at the Seahawks, because I'm like, okay, six to one to make, minus 900 to miss, that's gotta be mispriced, right? And then you look at the Seahawks who are four and five.
19:05
Remember, we're at the point now where it's like, okay, um, the runway is still there, but it's getting shorter real quick.
19:13
Um, I'm sure there was like a Yogi Berra messed up phrase in there that I was about to make, but it, it's just, it's getting late early- Yeah... as Yogi Berra would say.
19:21
Um, and so, you know, look at the, the, if we can go back to that schedule, guys, the Seahawks, they have the bye here, right? But at four and five, you're like, okay, could they get in? Could they get in?
19:31
They got eight games left. Well, they got at the Niners and home Cardinals, then at Jets and at Cardinals, home Packers, home Vikings, at Bears, at Rams. They're not going to the playoffs, man. Yeah, probably not.
19:43
I got a preseason ticket for them to make it. [laughs] And what I worry about- That's a good troll... we had, w- my Seahawks exposure is on Mike McDonald to win Coach of the Year. Yeah.
19:51
And I don't think that's happening- Don't think it's happening... if they don't make the playoffs. Who's your Coach of the Year, by the way? We talked with this, I talked to Aaron Schatz about it yesterday.
19:58
He was, he was very noncommittal on Coach of the Year. That's a great question, 'cause I think, I think a lot of us, and I'll, I'll, I'll, I don't wanna speak for others, I'll speak for myself. How about that?
20:07
[laughs] Kevin O'Connell was kind of the shoo-in, right, for, for a large part of the early part of the season. So I don't know. I think, I do think that's opened up.
20:14
I mean, Dan Quinn, I, I, I think if season ended today, you gotta go Quinn. I think that was maybe different a few weeks ago, but season ended today, I'm going with Dan Quinn.
20:22
See, but then you remember my qu- my follow-up to Aaron was, "Okay, but Jayden Daniels is absolutely winning Offensive Rookie- Yep... of the Year if the season were to end now.
20:30
Do you think there are voters that would not want to give that award to, to both awards to Washington, in other words?" No, I think, so this is where- He said there, he said there would be some- Okay...
20:41
that, that would have that opinion. I think that's, I think if you get a, have an MVP player, that is far more likely to, to knock off the Coach of the Year consideration.
20:50
I think Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year could both be won by the same team. Yeah, except for this Rookie of the Year, right, if it continues, would be a top five MVP candidate also. Yes. And he should be.
21:00
And he should be. 100% he should be.
21:02
I think the, I think the one that's really interesting, Matt and I were talking a bit about it last week, I, the odds reflect it, so I'm not gonna say there's still, like, a ton of value here.
21:09
I just think the way we talked about Mahomes and the Chiefs with the MVP and Coach of the Year market has completely flipped from the preseason.
21:17
I brought this up with Aaron yesterday, about Andy Reid you're talking about? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. 'Cause I, I mean, how, how many s- Yeah...
21:21
off-seasons have we said Andy Reid won't be considered for this award because he has Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, but you have to consider him this year with h- the w- the accounting stats that Patrick Mahomes has and how good this defense is playing, Andy Reid has to be considered in this market this year.
21:34
But for those who missed it yesterday, we got into that as well, and he's like, "Yeah, if they go 15 and two, and the, and the second loss is in a meaningless game, it's his."
21:45
But then I'm like, "Okay, 15 and two is kinda cheating, right? What if it's 13 and four?" Let's say the Chiefs go 13 to four, which would mean they would only go five and four down the stretch. Right. Right?
21:55
And one of those, let's say one of those is meaningless to use his. Then is it his? And he's kinda like, "Not really." So- Such a high bar [laughs]... there's, there's still a ridiculous bar for Andy Reid.
22:03
Yeah, it really is. The other one he brought up is Mike Tomlin. I mean, M- Mike Tomlin- Yeah... is probably at nine to one right now, to me, looks like the best value there.
22:11
You, you could make a lot of arguments in this market. I mean, Jim Harbaugh, like, I mean, who saw that coming really from the Chargers team? I mean, great, we all know Jim Harbaugh's a great coach.
22:19
I didn't expect this team to l- I don't even know how good they look. That's how good they are, Gil. I don't even know how good they are. Was it U- Youmans? I believe- They keep making me lose bets.
22:26
I believe Youmans was the one before the season who said he likes the Chargers over. Yeah. I believe you are correct. And a lot of it had to do with schedule, and that has manifested for sure.
22:33
Uh, Aaron Schatz did admit, not to keep bringing him up, but he did admit from yesterday, for those who missed it, Tomlin, you know, he's an analytics guy. He's an analytics pi- pioneer when it comes to the NFL.
22:43
You can't measure Tomlin. You can't. Yeah.
22:46
So, you know, if he's talking about maybe he's voting for Tomlin at this point, you know, it's hard mid-season to, to pin anybody down, but that was one of, uh, that was on his shortlist. Mm-hmm.
22:56
Um- Yeah, I think mid-season, though, this is where these, the, these short shots become more clear, right? So anyway, I don't have a bet in NFC Make Miss, but
23:04
a wi- a, a worthy exercise to go through, a, a, uh, a valuable exercise to, uh, determine that there are no bets nonetheless. Zach Cohen with bets on the other side.
23:14
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24:03
Just- DC, DC and Maryland looking over with jealousy. That's right. Should I, should I sum up our, uh, our Coach of the Year conversation on the break? Pl- yes, you could. [laughs] Please do that.
24:11
Gil, there's a 90, in my opinion- [laughs]... 95% chance, uh, that it's either Dan Quinn, Kevin O'Connell, Andy Reid, Jim Harbaugh, or Mike To- Tomlin. Just can't narrow it down further than that.
24:21
[laughs] Excellent job stepping out on a limb. Well done. But that, that reflects- 10 weeks easy... that's a good reflection of what it is. Yeah, it really, I think it- No idea...
24:28
I think it's very wide open right now between those guys. Uh, as for our discussion on, uh, NFC Make M- uh, Make or Miss, uh, BG McAvoy on Twitter, we get tweets.
24:37
BG McAvoy says, "After this week, Tampa has an easy schedule," he said. Tampa. Tampa's an easy schedule.
24:42
By the way, Trip Tepper chimes in, "In the NFC playoff odds, can I pitch you guys on the Buccaneers, yes, to make the playoffs?
24:49
They have a very soft schedule after this week, so half a unit now, half a unit if they lose to the Niners." How about that? I just think it's, I think those wide receiver injuries are massive for that team. I do too.
25:01
I, I kind of wrote them off after Godwin and Evans both got hurt. Evans'll be back here at some point, but is it enough? I don't know that it is.
25:08
And again, just going back to what we were talking about, I think they're, I think you have to believe in them winning the NFC South.
25:13
So you gotta have a, you've, you've gotta be fading the Falcons a bit too, and I just don't know that I'm there yet. Um, yeah, what was their number on the yes, by the way? Do you know? Or did you see that offhand?
25:23
I can't remember what it was, but yes. I'll grab it. A couple votes for yes from, uh, from Twitter.
25:28
Um, and then, uh, Mark Maynor @easterly1, "Hey Gil, don't mean to rain on your taco holders, but is Tomlin versus a rookie quarterback the start of the Kingsbury second half of the season effect, or is Daniels immune to the Kingsbury Effect?"
25:41
What, uh, Mark is referring to, and Mark, thank you for the, uh, kind, uh, kind note. By the way, I should say this again, um, hundreds of, of just the nicest notes about my mom. I'm get, I will get back to all of them.
25:52
I'm doing some every day, but there's hundreds of them, but Mark Maynor was one of them.
25:55
But here, he, what he's referring to with the Kingsbury Effect, uh, Kliff Kingsbury at Texas Tech, um, everywhere he's been, like even going all the way back to college, there's these amazing starts.
26:07
The Arizona Cardinals, same thing, right? He's had a, he has a history of amazing starts to a season and then just absolute meltdowns. The team, the team just crashes as you go down the stretch.
26:18
So Mark is basically saying, what's gonna win out, right? Jayden Daniels awesomeness, or does the Kingsbury Effect kick in this week- Yeah, catch up... against the magic beans of Mike Tomlin? It's a great question.
26:29
I can't wait to find out. That's gonna be a great game. Yeah. Uh, plus 210 on the Bucs tonight. Plus 210 on the Bucs. So even that, so that's the thing. That's what I was getting at. Yeah.
26:36
So you guys might be right, but, but plus 210 is not enough to make me wanna make that bet. It's not nearly sexy enough. Yeah, if that was like four to one, sure. Maybe. Yeah. Yeah. I love Baker Mayfield this year.
26:47
I love him. That market is terrible. It's so priced correctly. It really is. Yeah. It's awful. Sorry about that, guys. Uh, Zach Cohen joins us now, ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
26:56
You can follow him @bettingonx on the Twitter machine, as, uh, VSiN senior editor, a part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. Zach, how you doing, man? I'm doing well. Can I ask you guys a question?
27:08
Please. What do you guys think about Jonathan Gannon or Sean McVay for Coach of the Year? Uh, 'cause I kind of think [laughs] both those teams have a shot at the NFC West. Who brought up Gannon the other day?
27:17
Somebody brought up Gannon. No, they're in my other 5%, Zach. Yeah. [laughs] I said 95%, okay? He's got them on the list too, Zach. [laughs] He's like a quarter of the league deep on these. Um, Sean McVay, I don't know.
27:29
Do you feel like Sean McVay would, would actually get enough votes? I'm not sure he would, even though, uh, he's great obviously, um, and they've had a lot of injuries themselves.
27:38
Uh, a lot, you know, what's the threshold? You have to ask yourself what's the threshold on all these? So the Rams and, and Cardinals, it's make playoffs. I, I don't even think it's that.
27:45
I think it's probably win division. Win division? Yeah. Yeah. I think it's win division- Oh, okay... for one of those guys. Yeah. That's, maybe that's true. Yeah. Yeah.
27:52
Well, if you win the division, right, you beat out the Niners, then you really... So that's the angle there. It's not bad, actually. Yeah. Yeah. Um, thank you, Zach. Thanks for coming. Um- [laughs] Thanks for coming.
28:02
Yeah. You're welcome. He's done enough already. You would, now, you would get better odds on those guys than those teams to win the division, so- Well, uh, as- That's why. Yep...
28:10
yeah, I don't wanna speak for Zach, but that's why, right? So that's the, because they could possibly eke out the division, there's the obvious path. 'Cause that would be a- Yep... tough case to beat, you know? Mm-hmm.
28:22
Unless the Lions go 15 and 2, right, or something like that, you know? I didn't even have Campbell in my five, i- in the five guys. I love how Zach brings it up and then we're, like, batting it around.
28:32
[laughs] Sorry about that, Zach. Apologize. [laughs] Um, let me ask you this. Before you g- before you give us more football and basketball thoughts, tennis.
28:40
I just wanna bring this up 'cause you and I are tennis hardos, and it's the WTA finals this week. And I'm just curious, are you betting any of this? Because I am not. I, I have been betting it. Yeah.
28:54
I actually, before the tournament, I took Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng to win. Uh, they were both in the same group.
29:00
I just had read that the conditions were insanely fast, and once I saw that, I kind of ruled out Iga and Coco as contenders, although Coco has looked great.
29:08
Uh, but I do think that Sabalenka or Zheng's gonna get the job done, and, uh, we're entering the semifinals soon.
29:13
So I, I do really like Sabalenka after what we've seen, and I am looking forward to betting the ATP finals next week, which will be, you know, Novak Djokovic-less, but, uh, still a pretty good list. Let me rephrase that.
29:24
Are you betting it match to match, though? Not at this point. Um, I wa- I was betting the ones that counted. I don't like it as we get later- Oh, yeah... in the round robin play. You don't really know what's going on.
29:35
And, you know, today we had Kasatkina playing for Pegula, and it becomes a mess. Yeah, it, it becomes a real mess. Kasatkina k- went in for the injured Jessie Pegula. Uh, she's gonna be fine, Kelly. Don't worry. Good.
29:45
She's, she's, she's got a, she's got a bit of cash that she can fall back on. All right. I mean... Um, but Ig- Iga rolls her, right? Iga rolls, uh, Kasatkina. Yep.
29:53
And then let me just ask you also, and then, yeah, you're right. Like, yesterday Rybakina beat Sabalenka in a match that didn't matter for either of them, right? Yeah.
30:01
Rybakina's out, Sabalenka's in, so it's a whole thing. And then the only other question I have is this: Was this not supposed to be outdoor hard court, Zach, and is now indoor? Am I missing something? I'm not sure.
30:13
I just, I just know that that's, they were saying that the speeds of the courts were, like, insane in practice. I'm not sure where it was supposed to be.
30:20
I know that they're probably a little bit happier to be playing indoor hard court than last year when they were playing, like, uneven surfaces in Cancun or whatever it was. Yes.
30:28
But it, it's a really weird situation, and there's no fans in the stands either, so- None... it's a real mess of- None...
30:34
the last year t- It's literally, for those who don't know, I probably should have said this, it's the eight best... They're, they're trying to keep interest after the Slams, right? Yeah. So they put these finals.
30:42
It's the eight biggest p- the eight b- highest point totalers, you know, from the whole season, just like golf.
30:48
And so you have the eight best female tennis players in the world in this, in this group stage, and then they go into a bracket thing, and there's, like Zach said, there's, like, three people there[laughs]
30:59
It's so bad What did we spot- Yeah... on Monday? I asked you why they were playing in the Hoosiers gym. Like, that's what it looks like. It's- Every, every one of these gyms... it's dark.
31:06
It's like, I mean, the eight f- eight human beings, eight, eight female human beings that are best at this activity, and nobody's there. It's all... Anyway. Yeah. Um, so you do have the futures on it. Okay.
31:15
Uh, good luck to you on those. Uh, let's go to- Thank you... uh, the NBA. Uh, anything today on, of course, a short Thursday schedule?
31:24
Yeah, um, so I'm playing the Blazers reluctantly [laughs] at plus four against the Spurs. I don't really think that Portland's a good team. Actually, one of my least favorite teams to watch in the league.
31:33
But the Spurs are playing the second night of a back to back. Uh, this is gonna be their sixth game since October 30th.
31:39
They've just played a lot of basketball on top of the fact that they're dealing with, you know, the situation with Gregg Popovich, which can't be easy.
31:44
You know, they're saying he has a serious health condition, so they're not, you know, without their head coach right now. And the Blazers have had two days of rest since pl- uh, beating the Pelicans on Monday.
31:55
Uh, they have been a team that has been solid under, uh, you know, with rest under Chauncey Billups, 19 and 14 against the spread when playing with two or more days rest.
32:02
I just think this is gonna be a bit of a close game.
32:04
Uh, the Spurs have been really, really bad offensively this season, uh, 27th in the league in adjusted offensive rating, and the Blazers have been a, a little better than expected defensively, 18th in the league.
32:16
So I think the Spurs are gonna have a hard time scoring, and I think this will be a game that comes down to the final possession or so. Okay. Uh, your favorite NFL weekend.
32:24
Do you have anything tonight, first of all, and then, uh, the rest of the week? You know, it's, th- this is probably my favorite bet of the week tonight is I, I like the over 52 and a half in this- Ooh...
32:33
Bengals Ravens game. I, I think that these two defenses just can't be trusted to get stops, and I know that the Ravens obviously are unbelievable offensively, possibly the best team in the league.
32:42
So the Bengals are gonna have their work cut out for them in stopping them. That's kind of why I ended up laying off the plus six even though I do like Cincinnati a little bit tonight.
32:51
But I just think this is gonna be a game where the teams go back and forth. We saw it happen already when they played in Cincinnati a couple weeks ago.
32:57
I don't think it's gonna get, you know, too different from what we saw last time. Burrow has kind of quietly had a- an amazing season for as bad as the Bengals have been. Sure has.
33:05
He's up there in, you know, pretty much every single metric.
33:08
Uh, I was really tempted to take him to win MVP a few weeks ago, and I didn't, but they ended up losing that game to the Eagles, which he probably would've needed to win in order to even be in that conversation.
33:16
Real quick, anything college you like best? Uh, college was really tough for me this week.
33:22
I, I did end up playing Utah against BYU, which is, uh, i- it's tough for me because I had Utah to win this, you know, the Big 12 this year, and has just been a complete loss season with Cameron Rising getting injured.
33:34
You know, they fired their offensive coordinator, Andy Ludwig. Uh, i- it's been a really ugly year in terms of that offense, but they have had a bye week to kind of figure things out and tr- try to get that thing going.
33:44
And defensively, I just think that they're gonna have a lot of success against BYU's offense, which I still don't m- really believe in. All right. Don't look now. All right. I lo- I love that for that sports phrase.
33:53
Don't look now, which means look. The Warriors are a phoenix rising from the ashes. Just wanna point that out. Oh, good. Oh, boy. [laughs] Could they be doing this again? Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it.
34:03
Thanks for the Jonathan Gannon and Sean- Thanks, guys... McVay note as well. Zach Cohen, everybody, betting on X. See you, guys. Crack coming up. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:18
Back on our numbers game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. This is Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Chris Patrick, a lot of, lot of Bucs love here.
34:30
He said, "I have never been a Baker Mayfield fan, but I feel like this season he is one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL." I love it. I, I'm gonna, I'm gonna... I'll, I'll add to this tweet.
34:41
I've never been a B- a big Baker Mayfield fan. I love him this year. He's maybe my favorite quarterback to watch this year. I loved Baker Mayfield in college as so many did. Obviously, he won the Heisman.
34:50
I thought, "You wouldn't want this guy on your team?" He ends up being the number one pick in the draft. He's, uh, you know, that Cleveland Browns Hard Knocks. He's a little prickly. Yeah. He's not for everybody.
34:59
Um, I don't know about top five, but I understand your point. He's got some, like, Tony Romo vibes going right now of this, like, "I'm gonna ma- get it done no matter what. It's not gonna be pretty."
35:09
Like, his, like, four-yard rushes where they're like, it, it seems like 120% effort in. Yeah. Gotta love him. Uh, let's see. Teasers and parlays, let's go. Zach and Crack Thursdays.
35:20
John Balducci, "Shh, don't tell anyone. The Washington Capitals are solid." [laughs] I won't. I'll make sure to keep that quiet. Kelly doesn't know a thing about it. Oh, I saw it. No, I saw on SportsCenter last night.
35:30
We're, we're actually gonna start having the Gretzky-Ovechkin talk. Oh, yeah, he's i- Like, it's, he's there.
35:36
Well, uh, the thing is, based on his goal production the last couple seasons, you didn't really think it was gonna be this year. It's probably next year. But now people are thinking maybe it is this year.
35:48
He's, like, what, 30 shy, something like that? I think is what I saw last night. Eight, 861st goal last night. Yeah. He's only 30-some shy, yeah. Great eight. Let's go, Ovi.
36:00
Um- Is, is that the most amount of hockey that me and you have ever talked? Oh, no. When the Caps won the Stanley Cup, I was all about it. [laughs] Me and you together.
36:07
That was- By the way, don't tell anyone else, the Vegas Golden Knights are really good too here at the top of the year, I believe as well. Um, this is from James Sade.
36:13
"I actually did a little today on Krygychova because of what you guys just said. She has something to play for while Coco does not. Hoping she loses, though. I want Iga in the semis."
36:22
And then Brian Moranian, uh, Morianan. Pardon me, Brian. Brian Morianan, "Just tossing this out there. Would the WTA finals be better suited for a country with more female rights/equality to draw fans to the event?"
36:35
Uh, that's a, it's been a big matter of controversy, by the way, Brian. Um, my answer would be yes.
36:40
Uh, Daria Kasatkina, who, uh, we mentioned was an alternate for Jessie Pegula playing Iga this morning, getting stomped by Iga, she was all anti playing in Saudi Arabia, and then apparently she's, she's not that anti anymore.
36:51
I mean, it gets, it gets tough with the money, right?
36:53
'Cause, uh, you know, if WTA, you can make enough money to kinda fund a bunch of the other events throughout the year with doing something like this, you, you understand why Uh, but- But yeah. But y- but yes, Brian.
37:05
[laughs] Which brings us to our Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week, presented by Larceny Wheated Bourbon. Lock in a win and seize the night. Bardstown, Kentucky, 46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely.
37:20
All right, Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week. You and I have matched on this for many, uh, weeks. The Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week is the Washington Commodores. Let's get it done. Uh, I have this at minus two and a half.
37:33
That's in my account at minus two and a half. Minus three consensus right now, is that what we're looking at? Uh, there, there's still some two and a halfs out there, yeah.
37:39
There's some two and a halfs out there for the, uh, taco holders. I refuse to call them the Commandeers. Well, you know what, the other word. [laughs] You said it yesterday, though. I did say it yesterday.
37:46
You said it yesterday. I'm trying. Trying. Um, here's the thing. Uh, w- great point made by Mark Maynard just moments ago off Twitter, who was talking about, okay, Kliff Kingsbury has this history, right?
37:56
Where his, the teams that he coaches, and I get it, he's the offensive coordinator.
37:59
Teams that he coaches, uh, do very, very well as a head coach, when he was a head coach, early first half of the season, and then they all seem to taper off.
38:06
He has many years of evidence to support this, both at the college and the professional level.
38:11
Um, I will say this, though, behind the scenes, what folks are saying in DC about Kliff Kingsbury, because, you know, if you read the FTN football preview, they were murdering Kliff Kingsbury in that magazine. Yep.
38:22
Um, the word is in DC that Kliff Kingsbury came in way more collaborative than Eric Bieniemy was, and that they instantly took a liking to him.
38:32
Now obviously, if you draft the right guy at number two, which they did, that helps a whole bunch, and so maybe it's an unfair comparison.
38:38
But that was the, that was the interesting buzz about Kingsbury from inside the locker room in DC. I...
38:44
Listen, I think it's a fair question to ask, okay, you know, I think the fairer question is this, beyond the Kingsbury effect, or whatever, you know, however you wanna quantify that, which is almost impossible to do so, uh, as a, as his, his being the offensive coordinator.
38:57
But the things that you talk about regressing, we were talking earlier about what is sustainable, what is not sustainable. Washington has been historic in the first nine weeks of this season.
39:07
42.5 yards per drive on offense, which True Media Sports tells us is the most average yards per drive through the first nine weeks of any NFL season by any team ever. Not by a rookie quarterback, by any team ever.
39:22
There's that. Is that sustainable? Uh, the fact that the Skins only have three turnovers through the first nine weeks, that is an all-timer through the first nine weeks of an NFL season.
39:33
Not for a rookie quarterback, for any team, just three turnovers. Only two of those are picks, by the way, from Jayden Daniels. So there is a fair question to ask, is that stuff sustainable?
39:43
And I will be the first to say the, the turnover stuff is obviously not, one would think, over time. The question just comes down to this game. My guess was Washington minus four when we did this on Guessing Lines.
39:55
Uh, I am surpri- I was surprised that it was lower than three, and as, as, ooh, as long as it was below three, that was a play for me.
40:01
The other thing is, I mentioned this on Guessing Lines, Washington has punted the football 19 times this season. It's incredible. Incredible. Trez Way has been on the field 19 times. That's it.
40:12
It's barely over one punt per half of football. So the Steelers task is to, you know, turn back all of that stuff.
40:20
And on defense, while it has become very fashionable, by the way, I don't know if Marshon Lattimore is going in this game. Yeah, loo- it looks like- Might not play... yeah, it looks like maybe not.
40:28
The, the newly acquired Marshon Lattimore, four-time Pro Bowler, previously with the Saints, that the, uh, that Washington traded for this week. So that might not be the case.
40:36
But I will say this about g- uh, their defense. It was very fashionable for us to say early in the year, "Oh, their defense is horrible." It's not horrible. It's not good, but it's not as bad as we made it out to be.
40:47
So in this case, do I think that Russell Wilson and the Steelers and Mike Tomlin's magic beans, uh, could, could, you know, will win this football game, will cover this football game? I don't.
40:58
Would I be totally shocked if they did? Of course not, 'cause it's Mike Tomlin and his magic beans, and Russell Wilson throwing the ball high up in the air and somehow it landing in George Pickens' pocket.
41:06
Um, so the- The moon ball. The moon ball. Um, so yeah, I mean, would I be the most shocked person in the world? I will not.
41:12
But as long as this is under three, the Washington Commodores are my Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week. Yeah, like, and not, not one that, that I'm on with you.
41:20
I think both of these teams are, are really scary to get in front of, but it, just where the number's at, that would be the look for me, absolutely. L- would lean the Commander's way. Feeling lucky?
41:29
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41:39
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41:48
Enjoy smoother sips, no matter the spread, and seize the night with Larceny Bourbon. Find a bottle near you at larcenybourbon.com. ANG is brought to you by Larceny Bourbon, Bardstown, Kentucky. 46% alcohol by volume.
41:59
Think wisely, drink wisely. Couple things I wanted to, uh, clean up, not clean up, but just follow up on from the last segment. One, the Warriors beat the Celtics last night in Boston. Man, they look good.
42:10
And I know there was no Jaylen Brown. Um, but however, the Warriors are now seven and one. Do I have that correct? Yep. Okay. The Warriors have already... Remember last year I did the whole- 5 and 0 on the road...
42:23
remember I did the whole thing last year when Klay, you know, if that was Klay Thompson's last game with the Golden State Warriors, and it was, right? He plays in Dallas.
42:30
Um, that they needed, you know, we needed to pour out a 40 for what was this unbelievable dynasty of basketball, um, that probably should have won two more championships than they did, right?
42:43
Should have been five championships. Um, was there... No, excuse me, should have been six championships. Instead, it was four. Um, and they were the most beautiful thing in sports.
42:51
Remember when they came back to win that last one. They had come back after the KD thing, and they had bottomed out, right? It was sort of by design.
43:00
They knew they were gonna bottom out after the injuries to Klay and to KD, and KD going away, and then they rose from the ashes and won it again. That is extremely rare in sports. Oh, very, yes. You just don't see that.
43:11
Could they be do- I don't wanna go crazy here, but could they be doing this a second time? Uh, Gil, I've got more confidence in them doing it this time around than I did that last time. I mean, th- w- this has to...
43:24
Like, people have to recognize, if this happens, it's already unprecedented what they did, but are you kidding me? It's crazy.
43:31
I mean, W- Wiggins has gotta get back to the consistent level of Wiggins being good, uh, that he was during those championship runs.
43:38
They need that, but if you continue to get development and quality games out of Kuminga, Moody, I mean, these were the guys that I'll, I had all the questions about in the off-season. It was, I wasn't willing...
43:48
Like, uh, JVT was very bullish on this team. Yes, he was. Yes, he was. And good for him, he, he's looking very right so far. Mm-hmm.
43:53
And my only hesitation was we're putting a lot of pressure on these youngsters to really fill those big-time shoes, but man, so far, so good in Golden State. Kuminga seems to be okay with the benching. Yep.
44:03
Everybody seems to have a good attitude. Buddy Hield has been spectacular in the early going. That one I'm not shocked by. You're not shocked by that? Nah. Buddy Hield, I think he's- Yeah...
44:10
a perfect fit for this team, right? I mean, you lose Klay Thompson, you l- need three-point help. Um, you get one of the best three-point shooters in the league. He's fitting right in.
44:17
The other thing- Six rebound yesterday, though, wow. Yeah. The other thing I don't- Buddy Hield hitting the glass... and kind of the clinching three yesterday. Yeah. So, so m- more or less.
44:24
The other thing I don't wanna, uh, let go, uh, I liked the under in the first segment in this Thursday Night Football game, when we talked earlier on the show. Zach likes the over.
44:33
And I'm on Ravens team total over, so I'm kinda- Oh... between you guys. Oppo, oppo alert. So sorry to confuse, but we each made a case for it. Yep. That's how the cookie crumbles sometimes. We'll come back.
44:46
Bill Krackenberger in studio, unscripted. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
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A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
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