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Nov 8, 2024
A Numbers Game | November 8, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | November 8, 2024 | Hour 2
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45:07
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Transcript
0:00
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0:27
The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:35
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. I don't care how you're taking us in, I just appreciate it's one of those four ways. Thank you so much.
0:46
Uh, thank you for making us part of your morning. Each and every morning, Monday through Friday, right here on a Numbers Game. Uh, Gil Alexander. Kelly is out today, in case, uh, everyone's like, "Where's Kelly?"
0:55
Uh, ate something bad, not feeling well, not here. Eh, that's the story. Uh, allegedly. You have to say allegedly after that. Uh, Kelly hopefully will be back on, uh, Monday.
1:03
This is, uh, the hour you've been waiting for. Uh, not to, uh, minimize any other hour, but it is Falica, Fezzik, and Dr. Bob coming up here talking, uh, pro and college football. Fezzik will be in studio.
1:13
Chris Falica standing by. First, we r- uh, we read some tweets. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Uh, great feedback. A Joe Named Jim chimed back in.
1:20
He says, "Give me a bit to put together the, uh, Numbers Game tournament. Segment versus segment is more likely as there are only t- uh, 10 total hours in a week.
1:29
I also don't wanna be a prisoner of the moment in creating this with a recency bias to football and wanna remember as many segments as possible." Thank you, A Joe Named Jim.
1:37
That is a very thoughtful approach to this exercise. Thank you very much. I appreciate it. Oh, you know what I love on Twitter? I love a little mea culpa. This is, uh, ADJ Rocks LA.
1:48
He was the guy, I don't know if you remember, the, the morning after the election, I read a tweet where a guy said, uh, "Eat it on this, jerk." [laughs] He was very careful to say eat it on this specifically.
2:01
He was v- he was nice enough to say don't eat it on everything. Well, he tweets in this morning, which I thought was very nice of him. He said, "I'm sorry for my previous political comment.
2:08
I understand the cashing bets concept. Just got too excited in the moment. Now let's cash some great tennis bets." There's the spirit, ADJ Rocks LA.
2:17
Uh, thank you for also just, you know, specifying what I should eat it on, though. I thought that was nice. But thank you for the, uh, for the comeback there, the, uh, mea culpa.
2:25
Judd O'Connor, "Have to wonder if Kelly hit another first-round leader, but since it was a five-way tie, [clears throat] he drank away his sorrows."
2:33
Ice Cold Gambler, uh, "I wonder if Kelly ate that m- uh, what Kelly ate must have been the, uh, he, he must have eaten from the pizza vending machine that crack man found."
2:43
I don't remember the pizza vending machine story. Was it, did he find a vending machine with slices of pizza in it? Oh, my God. Maybe it was that. Joe C714, "What do you mean, Gil?
2:54
Who doesn't want more random texts asking for donations?" Oh, this referred to my comment about I think everybody's, everybody's happy that the election is over.
3:01
The number of texts and phone calls I received on the run-up to this election is in the hundreds. I'm not kidding. Maybe got to a thousand. It was insane. Good Friend Chillionaire, "No way Kelly could be replaced.
3:15
He has the most pronounced arm swing in the walking game." Exactly. Can't find that, uh, pronunc- pronounced arm swing everywhere.
3:22
Sweens Machine, "Gil, you and Kelly should do a power rankings assuming the starting quarterback goes down for each team." Oh, this is a great idea. "Might be entertaining. P.S.
3:30
Anyone who says they're having a tough week after what you've been through is comical." Well, it's not a competition, but thank you for that. Um, I like the backup quarterback power rankings. That's a good one, actually.
3:40
Um, and then, uh, Murphy Jim says, uh, "Gil, uh, love all the Ravens-Bengals breakdown earlier. The in-game betting was a gift. Had the Ravens money line going in during the game.
3:48
I got Ravens plus 340 and the Bengals plus two and a half and over 51. Bengals going for two was, [laughs] was correct. Always do what your opponent doesn't want you to do." I'm with you. I, I liked it in the moment.
4:00
Steve Fezzik will have a different opinion coming up, but I, uh, I liked it in the morn- uh, I liked it in the moment, and it worked out for you, that's for sure. And Jason H11, "Great mega-pod, very entertaining.
4:09
Glad you're back, Gil. Once again, condolences." Thank you very much. Chris Falica, ladies and gentlemen. He is the Bear. He is at Fox Sports. He oversees the Bear Bets podcast empire.
4:18
He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, and you can see him on big noon Saturdays as well for college football over at Fox. How you doing, Chris? I'm, I'm doing okay.
4:26
[clears throat] I got three things for you- Okay... in response to the tweeters. Sure. Uh, number one, uh, the backup quarterback rankings, absolutely one of the things, [clears throat]
4:35
excuse me, uh, that we would do back when I was on College GameDay and we would cover the, uh, the national championship game, is we would always make sure that we had, uh, when we show warmups, the backup quarterback and who they were.
4:49
That way, "Hey, something goes wrong tonight, uh, th- this is who's gonna come in." And sure enough, one year, the year, uh, Colt McCoy got hurt against- Yeah... Alabama and Derrick Gilbert came in, uh, there we were.
4:58
So we would always make sure to let people know before the game who the backup quarterbacks were. So, uh, totally agree with that.
5:05
Uh, number two, it's amazing, like, the whole texting, tweeting of other, the, uh, the asking for donations. Like, like, you can slide over on the iPhone and hit delete. Do you wish to delete and report this junk?
5:17
Yes, that's what I did with every single one, but they still seem to, like, come up in- Oh... every, and, and you'd get more. It was almost like a- It's incredible... a trigger that you get more.
5:26
And then number three, I totally agree with Will. You did not give him nearly enough credit- [laughs]... for Aaron Judge's 2023. Total, total oversight by me, I know. Total oversight.
5:36
By the way, after all these years, do we ever get an explanation on Colt McCoy's arm? It was like weak arm. What was it for that game? Yeah, yeah, uh, yeah, dead, dead arm or something. Dead arm. Yeah. I, I don't know.
5:45
I don't know what the hell happened. Jeez. Like, you just, just, just ask a Texas fan. They would've beat Alabama if Colt was in the game. Oh, 100%, they would've. I joke with Mark Inger about that all the time.
5:53
Of course. And Mark, and Mark gets so wound up about it. It's hysterical. I mean, I will say this. I remember as a bettor, I remember the people who had Alabama chirping about it after the game.
6:02
I'm like, "Dude, you can't chirp about it. The, the, like, the National Player of the Year got hurt, got dead arm. Like, you can't, like- Yeah... take your, take your win humbly." Um, let's start with college football.
6:11
Do you have anything with Alabama-LSU? This is a line that, uh, is now Bama by three, and I, I think the lookahead was about half that, right? About one and a half here. Yeah. I, I, I don't, I don't love it.
6:22
I mean, I, I would I didn't play anything involving this game. If I did, it would probably involve looking at maybe an Alabama team total over or something like Jay- uh, Jalen Milroe, uh, rushing prop or something over.
6:34
You, you just look at what Marcel, what Marcel Reed did to the LSU defense, uh, a couple of weeks back and I, I think Milroe obviously can do that i- in a similar fashion, uh, w- with, with the big play offense that they have.
6:45
But I, I did not play this game, uh, at all. I actually have an Alabama under nine and a half season wins at plus money, uh, filed away somewhere. So, uh, if LSU were to win, I'd be, I'd be k- uh, cashing that bet.
6:58
And then the other, the other, uh, great fa- uh, file away down the road is, like you say Alabama loses, they went out, they're nine and three- Yes, this is what I was gonna get at...
7:06
they, it, it m- maybe Georgia's number one or number two in the country. Like, they're, they're the ultimate, like, trial balloon for the 12-team playoff.
7:13
A, a, a nine and three Alabama that's got the best one in the country over, over, uh, Alabama if indeed, or, uh, Georgia rather if they're indeed number one. So, uh, we- we'll, we'll see what happens.
7:22
But, uh, I would expect a little bit of a higher scoring game here, especially from the, uh, the Alabama standpoint. Ah, nobody's gonna be upset if a nine and three Alabama gets into the 12-team playoff. [laughs] Nobody.
7:31
Not at all. No. Per- perfectly reasoned mind. Absolutely. I, I can't imagine there won't be hours devoted to that that week. [laughs] Um, all right. What did, what did you land on in college football?
7:42
Uh, I landed on Kansas plus three against Iowa State, and I took Jayhawks a little bit on the Moneyline as well.
7:49
A, a lot of times when you get these teams that have a, like, a magical, special season and they're undefeated and they suffer their first loss, it, it's kind of a gut punch and it takes a little bit to kind of recover.
7:59
Maybe they put, you put a little bit of doubt in your mind about, uh, you know, are we really this good? A- a- and you don't necessarily play your best the next week.
8:08
Now, I know Iowa State's gonna travel to Arrowhead and there'll be a ton of people there.
8:11
But if you look at Kansas this year, the record isn't necessarily great, but they have been in so many close games and just on the wrong end of things. Uh, Jalen Daniels has actually played a little bit better.
8:23
Actually, it's a lot better these last three games as of late.
8:26
But KU is not gonna win the Big 12, but they're gonna have a massive say in who does win it if they get Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado in the next three weeks.
8:35
So, uh, the, the Jayhawks are certainly the team to, to watch and see how their performance p- well, plays out over the next couple of weeks.
8:42
Uh, I played, I played under 55 in Georgia, Ole Miss, and that number's actually gone against me a little bit. Uh, I see some 56es out there, so go for that.
8:53
Uh, Henry Parrish, the Ole Miss running back, is not gonna play. I've heard Trey Harris, a reaggre- the Ole, Ole Miss wide receiver has re-aggravated his hamstring. He probably isn't gonna play.
9:02
I, I think the Georgia o- uh, offensive coaches and just coaching staff in general think that they can run the ball on Ole Miss, that they don't think Ole Miss has really played anybody at all.
9:12
So I, I can see a lot of long time-consuming potential drives, uh, from Georgia and maybe they just don't want Carson Beck to go on the road and, a- and turn the ball over a bunch to give Ole Miss a chance here.
9:23
So I played, I played under 55 here with, uh, with, with Georgia/Ole Miss. Like I said, you can get a, uh, a better number on that as well.
9:32
I like the three and a half with Colorado here and, uh, where I, where I'm gonna be- Ooh... as well. Yeah, I, I just don't think...
9:37
You look at Texas Tech's, uh, defensive numbers, they don't get after the quarterback at all, uh, in terms of sacks or pressures. They give up a ton of yards, uh, through the air.
9:47
And if you're just gonna allow Shedeur Sanders to sit back there a- a- and take his pick at, at Warren, Hunter, and the other wide receivers that they have, it's potentially gonna be a long day.
9:57
Uh, if you look at, uh, Texas Tech here in Lubbock, like 51 to Abilene Christian, 41 to Cincinnati, 59 to Baylor. Uh, like the, the defense is just not good, so I laid the, uh, the three and a half.
10:08
I played team total, uh, over 32 and a half as well. And then the, another game. Look, I, I had a good week last week and all these numbers are going against me now. Like- Hmm...
10:17
I laid, I laid 11 with TCU against Oklahoma State, and now that number has d- actually gone down to 10.
10:24
Oklahoma State is one of, I think the second-worst, uh, pass defense in the country in terms of yards allowed per completion, and I think that's a great recipe for Hoover and that TCU offense to get going.
10:35
Off loss at Baylor last week, but TCU has played better. Oklahoma State has not won a Big 12 Conference game and, a- a- and I think they basically are playing out the string here.
10:44
So I think TCU will bounce back and get a big win over the Cowboys. I like it. Uh, couple f- couple follow-ups. One, the r- uh, you'll tell me if I'm wrong.
10:52
The Georgia/Ole Miss under, you put that out really early this week, right? Like you w- you jumped on that one, if I recall. Yeah. Yeah. I did. Okay.
11:01
Uh, and then, uh, Mike Pritchard was kind enough to be on the Megapod yesterday, the Beating the Book Megapod, and I asked him about his buddy, Deion Sanders.
11:07
And I- I'll paraphrase, I, I don't wanna misquote, uh, Mike, but he was like, I, I was like, "So you think Deion is bouncing when Shedeur and Travis Hunter are bouncing?"
11:16
And he goes, "No, he'll stay one more year just 'cause he knows everybody's [laughs] gonna say that." [laughs] Do you agree with that? I would agree with that. Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I think so, too.
11:23
I, th- th- that's kind of a... Especially, especially if they, if they go on to, uh, be 10 and two and maybe play in the Big, the Big 12 Championship game.
11:30
Which, by the way, I, I think if you can get them at plus 350 around- Yeah, man...
11:34
I think right now to win the Big 12, that's a, that's a hell of a bet because I, I think the BYU, they played with fire a, a lot this year. They certainly have a chance to lose the game.
11:42
And like I said, I think Iowa State has a really good chance to lose this week, and they still have to play Kansas State.
11:47
So I, I think there's a really good chance that if the Colorado can get out of Lubbock here tomorrow with a win, uh, they're gonna wind up playing in the Big 12 title game. 10 seconds, your favorite NFL play is?
11:57
Arizona Cardinals. I don't know why we're doing this again with the Jets. Me too. Cardinals on the Moneyline at plus a point and a half.
12:02
I don't know if it's my favorite, but it's one of my three favorites, that's for sure. I'm with you. Chris, thank you. Appreciate it, man. You got it, bud. Have a great weekend. Chris Fallica, @ChrisFallica on Twitter.
12:11
F-A-L-L-I-C-A over there at Fox. We'll come back. Steve Fezzik in studio. Math warning next.
12:18
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12:32
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12:41
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12:55
Uh, this is from Indiana Jet. Indiana Jet was one of the, uh, four choppers last year in Survivor.
13:01
Uh, he, uh, has made me aware of this, uh, tweet from, uh, Danny Hafetz, who says, "A serious flaw in the analytical arguments to go for two late in games might be that these two-point conversions are refereed closer to a Hail Mary than a normal play."
13:15
We'll get, [laughs] we'll get into that momentarily with Fez. Um, Charles in Connecticut, "This is what happens when you don't tell Kelly the sushi spot, Gill, and he's forced to opt for gas station sushi instead.
13:24
Hope you feel better soon, Kelly." Kelly actually went to the sushi spot with me, and he still doesn't know the name of the sushi spot. So that, that wasn't it.
13:32
Uh, JC says, "Backup quarterback power ratings would be fantastic." And, uh, Roger Jones, about the pizza vending machine, says, "Gill, there, there is pizza vending machines in operation at some hotels."
13:41
He says, "I can't remember if I saw it at the Linq or Flamingo, but it's similar to the cake vending machine." Uh, yeah, uh, um, Jason, Ice Cold Gambler, just showed me them. Unbelievable.
13:51
And then finally, LosVegas514, "Yo, do you know the speed of the Bionic Woman, Summer Somers, or even the Bionic Dog, Max? I'm sure Ja'Marr Chase is much slower."
14:01
Well, I did, uh, once again, well, what, what that has to do with this, I sort of, uh, compared Ja'Marr Chase's, just to give context. That's what we do on this show. We just give context.
14:08
Ja'Marr Chase, on his first long touchdown, uh, topped out over 20 miles per hour. And just by point of comparison, Steve Austin, the Six Million Dollar Man, he was 60 miles per hour.
14:17
So, you know, he's got a ways to go on that. Um, but he isn't bionic. Ladies and gentlemen, he's the only back-to-back winner of the Super Contest.
14:24
He, uh, is kind enough to join us each and every Friday in studio, and man, do we have a lot to talk about. It's Steve Fezzik, @FezzikSports on Twitter. How are you, sir?
14:32
Shocker, not everyone agrees with me [laughs] on Twitter. No. Okay, wait, let's start. Before we get to the two-point conversion, you had a bet with Doug Kazerian- Yes... on the election. Correct me if I'm wrong.
14:43
The bet was you had popular vote. You had, you were so sure Kamala was gonna get the popular vote, but then you, you not only had Kamala to win it, you had Kamala plus seven and a half million votes, and you- No, no. Oh.
14:56
Plus 7%. Plus 7%, oh. On the popular vote. Oh. So the context here is that Doug was directionally right in his handicap. He says, "The polls can't be trusted. I think that Trump can win the popular vote." Great handicap.
15:11
But he took it too far, and he says, "In fact, I'm betting 28 to one Trump wins the popular vote by more than 7%." At, at that point my head exploded.
15:20
[laughs] Because it's a black swan event of like, it's like predicting, A, there'll be... It's like saying there's gonna be a major earthquake on the West Coast and it's gonna exceed 11 and a half. All right?
15:30
It's, it's fine if you wanna bet it's gonna exceed eight, but asking for an 11-and-a-half earthquake, it's just not gonna happen. And so I famously said, "28 to one?
15:38
I'll give you 280 to one," which I did, and I won easily, despite what Twitter might say. What, but what percentage did he end up winning the popular vote by? Right around 3%. Oh, so easy. Which was...
15:48
Well, but the, the, the reason I say it was so easy is I would argue that's already, like, it was like things couldn't have gone any worse for Harris than what, what, uh, what happened.
15:56
It was already a black swan event, and it still didn't even sniff, you know, four- Yeah... and a half percent. Yeah. And I had, and I had plus 7%. 20, 28,000-plus to win $100. Yep. Still owes me that hundred.
16:09
How, how are you asking him for it? In what denominations? I already have. You- I already, I already have. [laughs] 10 tens? I, I texted him right after the, uh- Uh-huh...
16:16
Cali, Cali results came out You know you're slightly meshugana making these bets, right? I don't, but it's not fair because I don't know what meshugana is. Okay, well.
16:22
[laughs] So, uh, yeah, yeah, to, to never forget, Purdue money line, 40, 80,000. [laughs] Yeah, I, I know. You can ask, you can ask Jeff Benson.
16:30
He'll be the first to confirm Fez got creamed on that bet, and he's up big on his net, even including that one. Listen, I didn't call you full-blown meshugana. I called you slightly meshugana.
16:40
It's not- I'm gonna look up that word. I don't think that's a real word. I'm gonna try that at Scrabble. It's, uh, Yiddish. It's a real word. Okay. Mm. Let's talk about the two-point conversion last night.
16:46
We had a, uh, a spirited exchange last night about this. Um, again, for those who, uh, missed the details, Bengals get to 35-34, uh, with over 30 seconds left on the clock.
16:58
At the previous play, Chase Brown ran out of bounds. So then when the five-yard touchdown pass to, uh, Ja'Marr Chase happened to put the Bengals within one at 35 to 34, there was over 30 seconds left.
17:08
And you, Steve Fezzik, believe the Bengals should have done what? They should have kicked. All right? And I'm a guy that believes in aggression, but this is ex- an exception to the rule.
17:18
And it, it, it's, it's not that close. So it, the right call was to kick the extra point. Explain to us, and warning, there could be math. Yeah, danger, w- math. Let me simplify the math.
17:28
Let's say there was two seconds left. Of course you go for two. So if you're the underdog, and, and we're just gonna assume you make the two-point conversion around 50%, excellent point.
17:37
Maybe it's 48.8% because they don't throw flags. It's close to 50/50. All right, so clearly if you're a six-point underdog like the Bengals were, going into overtime you'd be an underdog.
17:49
Obviously it would change depending on who wins the coin flip, but you're, you're, before the coin flip, you're gonna be an underdog. Why? If you're gonna be an underdog, end it there 50/50.
17:56
But here's where it gets messy, when there's some time left on the clock. So in this case, 38 seconds. So because of that, there's, there's two paths that Baltimore can win the game.
18:07
If you go for two, all right, you can stop the Bengals. Half the time you win the game, basically. I know they can get the onside kick, but it's very unlikely.
18:15
And the second path for Baltimore, Cincinnati succeeds, well, now Baltimore can go balls to the wall. All right? Ultra-aggressive.
18:21
And I would make the case that they'll score a field goal with 38 seconds about a third of the time. Okay, so let's, here's the math. So the probability the Bengals win is They need the two-point conversion.
18:33
That's a half. 50%. Times two-thirds, because they need the, to stop Baltimore. So one half times two-thirds, boom, that's a one-third chance of winning. All right?
18:43
Now, they, there is another path for the Bengals to get the onside kick. So instead of 33%, it's probably around 35% that the Bengals win. So that's, I don't think anyone can argue with that math.
18:53
It's pretty cry- crystal clear. Now, here's the hard part. All right, let's say they kick the extra point. All right?
18:58
No guarantee they make it, but if they do make it, I would say it's pretty clear- Extra points, like, like 93%. Yeah, I th- yeah, I, it, it, but I, I think it's higher, like nine- call it 95, but whatever.
19:09
But if, um, what, what... If, if I bet the Bengals on the money line, if I had to e- estimate at that point, okay, they score, they're down one, they kick in the extra point, how often are they gonna win?
19:20
I think it, 40% feels about right to me. All right? Now, I know this is a little touchy-feely, but I don't think anyone would say that it's higher than, like, 45%.
19:28
I don't think anyone would go down to, "Well, no, it's only 35%," because pre-flop, before the game kicked off, the Bengals only had, like, a 33% chance to win. Clearly, it's gotta be higher than that.
19:40
They've, I mean, the game's tied and there's 35 seconds left. You, you've, the, you're probably going to overtime, and here's the c- thing people lose their minds.
19:47
People are like, "Well, you just said Baltimore has a one-third chance to, to score." No, I said they have a one-third chance to score if they're down one. It's way less when, if the game's tied.
19:56
Example, at the end of the first half- Because they will not be as motivated to matriculate... happened at, at the end of the first half. Yeah. Baltimore, 30 seconds left. They had the ball.
20:03
Three-yard pass to Mark Andrews and we headed to halftime. You, you are m- uh, another way to put that is you are much more likely if you're down a point to throw a ball 20 yards downfield into double coverage- Yes...
20:14
because you have to. Exactly. Okay, couple follow-ups to this. Uh, the Tampa Bay game couple weeks ago. Was it a couple weeks? I can't even remember now. One week ago. One week ago. No, it was Monday night.
20:25
[laughs] Mon- Monday night. These are concurrent games. [laughs] I can't even keep track. Right. [laughs] Yeah. Back to back. Monday, so were you in favor of them going for two in that situation? Absolutely. Here's why.
20:36
Yeah. Everything changes- Against the Chiefs, yeah... everything changes with 20, there's 27 seconds left, all right? So now- 11 seconds fewer... and that, and that makes all the difference in the world.
20:45
It kind of intuitively makes sense. Unless you're the Buffalo Bills and you play ultra prevent and you don't mortar kick, you know, in the famous playoff game- Famous championship game...
20:53
where they gave up the, the- Yeah... the score with, like, 17 seconds left. Like, 30 seconds is enough time, it's, it's a viable, you know, you throw three out patterns, you kick a field goal.
21:03
Once it goes below 30, it's kind of very difficult to score, even if, even if you're absolutely m- you know, fully focused to score. Whereas once you give a team 40 seconds, 38 seconds, it's much easier.
21:15
And in the Tampa situation, they would've been a much bigger underdog in overtime because they were an e- they were an eight-and-a-half point underdog instead of a six-point underdog.
21:24
All right, back to last night's game. And you're absolutely right, it was literally, like, days ago. Uh- [laughs]...
21:28
back to last night's game and, and just in general, would you allow, Steve Fezzik, would, w- is there a possibility that your certainty on your percentages and your numbers, um, uh, that perhaps you're a little too confident about your numbers and that because it's football and there's so many moving parts, after all, this is not, this is not baseball where we can measure it more precisely.
21:51
"Oh, it's a 264 ab- hitter against a pitcher who has great reverse splits and, and, and allows this batting average," right?
21:59
There's too many moving parts in football that your percentages are great in theory, and maybe, just like you said with Kazarian and the election bet, that directionally, to use your word, directionally you're right.
22:10
But your certitude is a little maybe off-putting. Very well said. So I'm not confident that my numbers are right to the nearest 1%, okay, when I'm estimating all these probabilities. They could be off by, like, 1 or 2%.
22:23
But I'm extremely confident that the conclusions are correct. Because there's enough, it's like, it's like a poll, you know, margin of error.
22:30
It's like a th- like, there's a 3% margin of error in all this, and there's enough margin of error here where I'm very confident if all, if, if you threw it into a Monte Carlo simulation and spun it around 10,000 times and ran the games, Tampa should've gone for it and Cincinnati should not have.
22:45
Hm. It's interesting.
22:47
I, I always talk about betting truth serum, and I felt like in the moment as a viewer of football who has watched, you know, a bajillion games like all of us have, that both teams should have gone for two.
22:58
But I understand what you're saying. And to be fair- Yeah... I believe I did text in both these games, "Tampa should go for it" You did. "And Cincy should kick." You did.
23:06
So, and of course, that's stupid because it's all random on any one trial. Steve- But it was correct... Steve Fezzik, six look-ahead plays and one for this week next. [upbeat music] This is VSiN,
23:18
the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. If you're looking for some action, our friends at First Bet have you covered.
23:36
Sign up today to unlock exclusive promotions, plus watch and wager on hundreds of exciting horse races every day from across the country and around the world. Sign up at firstbet.com. That's the number 1 S-T bet.com.
23:49
Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200. Head to firstbet.com today. Gil Alexander, Numbers Game. Steve Fezzik alongside, kind enough to, uh, join us.
24:02
By the way, Kelly Bidlin, for those who missed it, uh, a little bit of, uh, I think he ate something bad, so he's not with us today. By the way- I saw a guy late last night at the South Point gambling.
24:10
It, uh, I, I was far away. It looked like him. It was like, he looked very drunk. I don't know. [laughs] I don't know. It looked very suspiciously like Kelly. [laughs] By the way, Fred Currier tweets in.
24:18
He goes, "Awesome show, Gil. Kelly's in time out." I don't know what that means. [laughs] He thinks I put him in time out. Um, by the way, I just read a, a horse racing promo. Do you ever bet horses?
24:28
I kn- I don't know you to bet horses at all. Yeah, I'm, I'm in trouble on this show because I was...
24:32
I, I, I, I said that if you're gonna follow someone who gives out horse racing picks, it's fun, you know, go ahead and do it, right? It's recreational. Oh, you did say this.
24:40
But you're probably not gonna win, and here's why. It's like, y- the more of us that bet it, then we're gonna get worse odds. [laughs] We don't get to lock in our odds.
24:47
So I love betting, like, Triple Crown horse matchups- Yeah... when it's like a sports betting where I can lock in my, uh, my bet on Giacomo regardless of what the odds do after I make the bet.
24:57
It occurs to me that you're always making friends, Steve Fezzik. Always. So, so we... 'Cause we have... Uh, see, I, I'm not gonna... I don't wanna get down this rabbit hole, but we have a couple handicappers.
25:06
Mike Somich is a, is a- Excellent... great horse handicapper. He's tremendous, it's just the vig is so high. Okay.
25:10
Well- The, the, the, like, like, I have no doubt that he would win if he could just play against reasonable vig. Yeah. Makes sense. Okay.
25:18
Um, let's get your one pick from this week, week 10, out of the way, and then we'll get to your lookaheads, which you, off-air you said, "We've been doing great on it."
25:25
And then what I love the most is [laughs] that you commented off-air, you said, "Better than Weingarten," which is a direct shot at Jason saying he's the most successful guest in, i- in The Numbers Game history. Ever.
25:37
Ever. Ever. You don't like that, do you? You're very offended by that. Well, I... It may well be. He's done very well. Okay. Yes. What's your pick this week? What do you like this week?
25:44
I, I like the Rams, Monday Night Football. Uh, easy handicap. So I have the Rams rated as the superior team against Miami. I, I know, not a big home field advantage, uh, for, but Miami has to f- fly across the country.
25:57
I also like the fact, if it's a close game, huge coaching advantage, and that should be the most significant in a very close game.
26:04
And I always like these West Coast teams with the late start times because of the body clock and the like, and the game gets decided in the fourth quarter, it's 10:00 PM or later Eastern Time, and all of those would put me on the Rams.
26:17
So I'm on the Rams minus the one. You know, when you said, when you said huge coaching advantage, my, my knee-jerk, my instinct was to say, "Really? You think that?" But you know what? I can't argue with that anymore.
26:26
That, that first game with Tyler Huntley just completely turned me on Mike McDaniel. It's not the capri pants. I know Todd likes to go in on the capri pants, but it's, it was such a bad coaching display.
26:37
Wants to be a rock star. [laughs] All right. Now, you've gone absolutely nuts here in terms of the lookaheads. You have how many plays for week 11? Six. So I'm, I'm not protecting my lead.
26:49
Why can I have so many more plays for week 11 than week 10? 'Cause these are virgin lines. They really haven't been bet into. Virgin lines. Yeah, so they're not hammered in place by big syndicates and big members.
26:58
Okay, e- enough, enough with the bet into, hammered in place. [laughs] Okay. Enough. Stop it. Okay. Six, six- I don't know what he's talking about. Yeah, sure you don't. Six next week. All right.
27:08
What do you, what do you like here? Let's start out with the sides. Green Bay minus two and a half, minus 120 at Chicago. Power rating-wise, I make it minus three, but you know what?
27:17
Green Bay always wins in Chicago, and I think there's a little bit of a mutiny going on with the Bears. You look at that schedule- Oh, my God... if they don't win this week, they might not win another game.
27:26
Oh, I, I s- I said that earlier. We were doing adjusted season win totals. I went under on Chicago, and I said the same thing. If they lose- Fully endorse that.
27:32
Co-sign the under seven and a half for the Bears Oh, if they, if they lose this week, forget about it. Yeah, y- I mean, how often in your life have you seen wide receivers running off the field in a middle of a play?
27:45
I had Pritchard, uh, Mike Pritchard was on, uh, the Megapod yesterday, and I was asking him about this as a former wide receiver who played, who actually played the game, and he's like, he said, he goes, "These kids are so entitled."
27:55
[laughs] He said it. He's like, he's, "Cam, I've never seen anything like this before." Right, and, and, and even, you know, stay close to the sideline.
28:01
Don't, don't go five yards away, because at least you can keep your defender on you, you know? Even though you're not allowed to catch the ball first. Yes. Okay, so the first one was Green Bay? Yes. Okay.
28:10
Uh, second one, Baltimore minus three, lay a dollar 15 at Pittsburgh. Um, I make it north of three. I wanna get in front of it. You know, we could have a good conversation.
28:20
I think Detroit's better than Baltimore, but I have Baltimore as the, the second-best team in the NFL, and now they got 10 days to prepare against a slightly overrated Pittsburgh team.
28:28
You are, uh, in line with Aaron Schatz, who said he has Detroit as number one, and he says by margin.
28:34
And Detroit through, what have they played, eight games I believe, through eight games, better than Baltimore and San Francisco through eight games last year, and he ended up with Baltimore and San Francisco when all was said and done- Hmm...
28:44
as two of his top 10 teams of all time. So there you go. Okay, next. Uh, number three, Atlanta Falcons. I know I'm playing chalk, but you know what? The time to play chalk, it makes sense. Earlier against, you know...
28:57
Uh, oftentimes the oddsmakers, they wanna be sharp. They're like, "Oh, you know, I'm not gonna inflate these lines." Well, they wind up under-inflating them, and you get bargains. So Atlanta, minus a dollar 10 at Denver.
29:07
I just have Atlanta a, a good two and a half to three points better than Denver.
29:11
So if I can get them, you know, at that price, these are all DraftKings, I just, uh, took the prices at DraftKings, absolutely I'm gonna play the Falcons. All right, next.
29:19
Number four, Buffalo plus one versus Kansas City. This is as easy a bet to make as ever. What am I doing going against Mahomes? Um, uh, Kansas City is so good when they're a dog.
29:30
Well, they won't be a dog in this game, because think, just a little while ago, Buffalo and San Fran are comparable teams, and they were cutting in line to bet the 49ers minus two hosting the Chiefs. Cutting in line.
29:43
Cutting in line. Don't cut in line. Go to the front of the class line and play Buffalo plus one before they become the favorite hosting KC. Wow, okay.
29:52
By the way, if you, if you do the Steve Fezzik pie of bets, what percentage is the lookaheads versus week of? Ooh, that's a great question. Um,
30:02
I would say two-thirds lookaheads, one-third the week of, but then once the games start, I start live betting- Live betting... and then, then it gets- Well, what, so-... go crazy... add that in.
30:10
So what does it end up being, do you think? Oh, I, I, I, I make literally 100 live bets during, during a weekend. Oh, so live bets way more than the others. Yeah, live, live, live bets are absolutely where it's at.
30:18
Do you really make that many? Yeah. I don't know that I knew that about you. Yeah, I'm, that, there's a reason- All right... I never am willing to come on to, like, any media, um, you know, during a Sunday- Yeah...
30:27
because I'm just so- Oh... so busy with... Including prop bets on players. I mean, there's so much you can play. I'm with you too, obviously, but not hundreds. My goodness. Okay. More. Let's do two total.
30:36
So I love this handicap, um, but I'm biased because it's my handicap. Cincy against the Chargers over 45. So now every Charger game has gone under this year. Guess what?
30:49
Every Charger game this year has been against a team that is what I would call a dead-not-under team, a Denver, a Las Vegas, a Pittsburgh, teams like that with good defenses and no offense.
31:02
So because of that, all their stats are skewed towards Chargers have a really good defense, Chargers average offense, and the truth is it's more close to the middle than you would think.
31:12
And the Bengals are a dead-not-over team. Don't know if you saw the game last night. I did. Quite a bit of offense, so over 45. Yes. Um, okay, you said you had two totals. What was the other one?
31:21
Second total, Indy-Jets over 43. I'm gonna make the case here that the Jets are a team that the perception was, um, we don't know about Rogers and the offense, but we love that defense.
31:34
Now, offense has gotten more weapons. Offense is trending upwards. Defense is trending downwards. It's time to play Jet games to go over. All right. We will...
31:44
By the way, if you missed any of these, uh, these will all be available for subscribers at vsin.com/picks. Every host, every guest, all their picks, every sport at vsin.com/picks.
31:54
We will also review them here at the end of the show, including Stevie's. Uh, every guest on the show today, because between Velika and Fezzik, we have a whole bunch. We got Dr. Bob coming up as well.
32:03
I'll put mine in there as well, and the G Bank plays of the day. Uh, before we go, we have a couple- I think Dr. Bob may have one more on this show. I- With Spreadepedia... Dr.
32:11
Bob is probably, if we're really talking about it, he's probably the winningest guest on this show. I think we, I think we need to have a recount- [laughs]... is what we need here.
32:19
Well, the, the beauty of that, though, is that Jason w- this was never a subject, right? And Jason made it one. Jason wanted people to know that it was him. You know, it's certainly possible.
32:30
I, I think Jason- 'Cause he, if you had it-... hit, hit 80 to one or something... That's what I mean. Yeah. If you add the futures numbers. So he's probably, yeah, probably. Yes. If you count those... Ah, all right.
32:37
It could be Jason. That's absolutely right. Yes. Before you go, 'cause we only have a minute here left, uh, what is, you do your power rankings, do you have...
32:44
What, what is the most outlying, based on conventional wisdom, what is the most off-market opinion you have, either to the good or the bad, on a team?
32:52
Yeah, so I have, I've been high on the Eagles, and by the way, my, my power ratings on X @FezzikSports, there's a fellow named Sam Hoppen that aggregates all the power ratings. Yes.
33:01
And I've been higher on the Eagles because everyone says Sirianni's a dummy and does everything wrong, and they just refuse to believe the Eagles are a top five team. So I've been high on the Eagles.
33:10
I'm down on Tampa Bay. I think without the wide receivers, I have them two points worse than an average team, and everyone else pretty much has them right in the middle. So, um, those are the- That's interesting...
33:22
two teams I'm on an island with. Okay, 'cause w- when we did the, uh, you know, the NFC playoff make miss, we had a few tweeters who were like, a few, few listeners who tweeted in, "What about the Bucs?"
33:31
You don't see it that way, without the wideouts. Oh, no chance. Well, when I say no chance- Yeah... no, no, no real path to, uh, to, to getting there. And the Eagles thing, i- I mean, both things could be true.
33:41
Sirianni could be- [laughs]... subpar, and they could still be good, right? I think it's a- And I'm on, I'm on an island when you're...
33:46
I don't care you're up 16-nothing and you can turn a two-score into a three-score game. It's the first half. My expectation going for two from the one is one point, two points. Kicking, it's a little under one point.
33:56
I think he actually did the right thing. I, I- I did, I did too. I did too. And pe- and he got thrown under the bus because- Yeah... they didn't get it. And it, a- and every...
34:03
And there's so many Dumbo coaches that don't go for two there, and they get free passes.
34:07
I'm so tired of the results-oriented quarterbacking, I mean, uh, armchair quarterbacking after that 'cause they didn't get it for people to say that, but it was the right...
34:14
If, if you're at the one-yard line, you go for it. Absolutely. Bob's coming on. Get ready to bet. Dr. Bob's coming on. Get ready to go. Get ready. Thank you, Steve. Appreciate it. Coming back next.
34:22
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget, top of the hour after our numbers game, Money Moves with Patrick Maher and Jeff Schwartz coming up here on the show.
34:39
Uh, stormy off today. Patrick and Jeff from 9:00 to 2:00 Eastern, then from 2:00 to 3:00, John Hanson on Prop Points. And I should let you know, as Fezzik was, uh, leaving the studio, he was like, "Who's that prop guy?
34:50
He's really good." That's John Hanson, 2:00 to 3:00 PM Eastern, followed by Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00. Make it rain. Coming up on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:59
Uh, time to review all of our, uh, best bets of the day, courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN, and we have a bevy. Am I allowed to use the word bevy? I think I just did. Um, we'll start mine...
35:11
Let's start with mine. Sure. Here are mine. Uh, these are my three football plays that I've made.
35:14
I've got to come up with two more for, uh, Circa Millions, but I've already bet the Cardinals, uh, laying the point against the New York Jetropolitans. I just do not think the Jets are good.
35:24
I think the Jets are the most overrated team in the market week by week, and I think the Cardinals might be one of the more underrated ones.
35:31
Cardinals minus one is a play for me, already in the account, as is the Lions laying three on the road against the Texans. I know that's three and a half now. Com- Commanders, you can still get at two and a half.
35:42
Commodores, two and a half point favorites at home against the Steelers. What a great barometer that game is going to be for Jayden Daniels and the young Commandears.
35:52
Paul Carr had three soccer picks, two tomorrow in the Premier League. Brighton double chance, plus 105 versus Man City. Liverpool, Aston Villa under three and a half goals.
36:01
And then on Sunday, he's got Nottingham Forest at plus 180, always shop around for these numbers, versus Newcastle. So Paul Carr, who's coming off a 3-0 Premier League week and a 2-1 Champions midweek pl- uh, record.
36:15
Chris Velika had a trio of plays as well. He also likes the Cardinals in the NFL.
36:20
He actually took them on the money line at plus 110, and in college football, he's got Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes laying three and a half. What was the other one, guys? I just missed there.
36:28
I think it was the under in the Georgia-Ole Miss game, if I'm not mistaken. And then, uh, Steve Fezzik with seven. Count them, seven. I love when people say that. Count them Seven bets. Uh, this week he is on the Rams.
36:42
Monday night, he's got the Rams laying the point against the Dolphins.
36:45
Then look aheads to next week, Packers laying two and a half, Ravens laying three, Falcons on the money line, the Bills plus one versus the Chiefs, and then he's got two overs, over in the Bengals-Chargers game, over 45, and Colts-Jets over 43.
37:01
So, uh, I think that definitely qualifies as a bevy of picks courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSiN.
37:08
The gbank Visa Signature Card, your best bet, delivering 1% cashback rewards on eligible gaming transactions, 2% cashback rewards on all other eligible purchases. For more information, head to vsin.com/gbank.
37:19
That's V-S-I-N.com/gbank. Subject credit approval, terms, and conditions apply.
37:26
Speaking of records of guests here on The Numbers Game, this gentleman might very well be the winningest bet in VSiN guest, or VSiN The Numbers Game guest history.
37:35
He was, uh, 2-0 two weeks ago when I was, uh, last on the air with him. Now 10-6-1 this season on the show. 116-85-3 all time on this show, courtesy of the progressive guest line. It is the great Dr.
37:49
Bob @DrBobSports on Twitter, drbobsports.com, a pioneer in this racket of ours. How you doing, Bob? I'm doing good. We missed you last week. Sorry about your mother, buddy. Thank you, man. I really appreciate it.
38:02
Very, very kind, uh, messages you left me. I thank you. Um, let's begin with the Holy War, BYU and Utah. What do you got here? It's just another one of those games this time of year, it's, it's reality versus prior.
38:18
Prior is how good a team was supposed to be before the season, and Utah was a top-ranked team, you know, top 10 or whatever, and BYU was supposed to be near the bottom of the Big 12.
38:28
That is not reality, and if this were based on reality, this line would be seven. I mean, it's just- Wow... it, it, it's just a, it's just sort of a silly, silly number.
38:37
Um, y- Utah would, like I said, would've been a huge favorite with Cam Rising at quarterback before the season. Rising is obviously out.
38:45
Uh, not only is Utah not very good offensively, but their defense isn't quite as good as expected either. Uh, Utah's offense, we'll start with that, 19 points per game in seven games against FBS teams.
38:59
Um, they're a lot- averaging only 5.2 yards per play, which is less than the s- 5.6 yards per play that the teams they faced would allow to an average FBS offense.
39:08
And here's the thing I don't think is in the line right now, is the offense lost number two wide receiver Money Parks, who's out for the season. And normally like, oh, the guy's averaging 7.6 yards per target.
39:20
Well, that's okay. That's mediocre for a wide receiver, but they don't have anybody.
39:24
Oh, they have Dorian Singer, who averages 7.7 yards on 66 targets this year, and they have their star tight end, Brandon Keithy, who has 8.6 yards per target on 48 targets.
39:34
And then they had Parks, 7.6 yards per target on 38 targets. They have no one else. So now they just have Singer and Keithy, who can be double teamed.
39:41
The other receivers on the team that are getting targets with Parks out have combined for 74 receiving yards on 19 targets this season. They tried to get those guys the ball against Houston after Parks went out.
39:54
They had eight targets in that game for a total of 11 yards. Now, they tried a lot of those passes to Parks are short passes, and they tried to get Mika Bernard, the running back, into the pass game last time.
40:05
Bernard had eight targets against Houston, but, uh, and, and he's only had 27 all year, so they're obviously trying to get him those short passes that Parks used to get.
40:12
But Bernard's only averaged 3.7 yards per target for the season against FBS teams, and he only had 24 yards on the eight targets he had against Houston. So they do not have anybody other than Singer and Keithy.
40:23
They can double team Singer. Obviously, they're gonna double team Keithy 'cause he's their, their main weapon on offense. There's no one else they can throw to.
40:31
Parks normally wouldn't be worth that much on a normal team with depth at wide receiver, but he's worth a couple points in, in this match because they have no one else that can take his, his place.
40:41
Um, BYU's defense is great. They're only allowing 4.7 yards per pass play on the season. So I don't see how Utah's gonna get their, their pass game going. They're gonna try to run it.
40:50
Their offe- their running game is mediocre. BYU's got a better than average run defense. It's just one of those line like, isn't that like UCF? UCF was on a four-game losing streak and was favored by three over BYU.
41:01
Where's the respect? I mean, BYU [chuckles] is unbeaten. They beat SMU on the road. They beat Kansas State by 29 points.
41:09
Utah's best win was with Rising at quarterback against Baylor, and that was before Baylor switched quarterbacks and became a better team.
41:15
Their other wins are in Southern Utah, Utah State, and by only three points against Oklahoma State, who's terrible.
41:21
They've now lost four straight games since beating Oklahoma State, and that's where against Arizona, Arizona State, TCU, Houston. If they can't beat those teams, how are they supposed to stay within three points of BYU?
41:31
It's just so disrespectful. BYU's the much better team than Utah. It's a, it's a mismatch with their defense against Utah's offense, and U- BYU's offense is slightly better rated than Utah's defense.
41:44
So I'm, I'm laying the three. I mean, it's just, to me, it's the prior should not be involved in this game, and that's what's bringing this line down.
41:51
So I mean, if, if it were, if the teams were, had the names switched, then Utah, if Utah were the team that BYU is, they'd be favored by more than a touchdown in this game [chuckles].
42:00
So BYU should be favored by more than a touchdown as far as I'm concerned, so I'll lay the three. Wow, I love the conviction on that. It's disrespectful to Jake Retzlaff and the leaflet itself, Bob, you know what I mean?
42:09
Sure is. Yes. Okay. Um, we do have football tonight. Do you have a play in some Friday night football? Yeah, I bet the under in the Memphis Rice game. I released it yesterday at 52 and a half.
42:20
It's still hanging at 51, which is a key number. Some 50 and a half, but I think that's gonna inch up back to 51.
42:27
Memphis has a reputation of being a good offensive team because they have been a pretty good offensive team in recent years with, with Seth Hennigan at quarterback, and they're scoring 34 points a game and averaging 6.2 yards per play.
42:38
But they have faced a horrible Plate of defensive teams.
42:42
So the 6.2 yards per play they've averaged, the opponents they face would give up 6.5 yards per play to an average FBS offense, and Memphis has only played one team that's even close to average defensively, and that's Florida State, who's a little bit, who's better than average defensively, and they managed only 4.7 yards per play and 20 points in that game.
43:02
Rice has a surprisingly good defense that no one seems to know about. They just beat Navy, and Rice's defense has only given up 5.2 yards per play to FBS teams this season.
43:13
Those teams would average 5.7 against an average defense. So Rice has a good defense, and, um, I, I just don't see...
43:20
The only teams that have been able to average more than 5.5 yards per play against Rice were Houston back in week three, and they had a couple big plays in that game, and then Army's option, which Army's option is, is, is averaging 5.5 yards per play against everybody.
43:32
Um, I just don't think Memphis is gonna get to five yards per play, and then Rice's offense isn't very good, and Memphis has a solid defense.
43:38
I mean, they're giving up 5.5 yards per play despite the fact they gave up 10.1 yards per play to Navy's option. Obviously, they don't know how to defend the option, but they defend everybody else pretty well.
43:48
Um, so I, I, I think it's gonna be a low-scoring game. Um, both defenses have the advantage in this game, and the total's only a few point, a couple points lower than the national average of 53 points per game.
43:58
So it just screams under to me. So under 51 or more would be your best bet, and then maybe a half-unit play if you're only getting 50.5 or 50. All right. That's on the, uh, Rice-Memphis under tonight.
44:09
And then, uh, back to the BYU game 'cause we have 30 seconds, Bob. Real quick, you had trem- you have tremendous conviction.
44:15
I know you don't necessarily keep track of this, uh, the actual line versus where you have it on, but this has to rank pretty high for you this year in terms of that difference, right?
44:25
Well, yeah, I mean, it's, it, it's a combination of model value, what my model says, and then, and then there's c- and the true line is in between what the model says and what the line is, but in this case, I think you've got true line value with Money Parks being out 'cause that's two points that is, that is not in the line.
44:43
Gotcha. So I think it's, it's, it's a higher rated play than normal. Let's put it that way. Let's put it that way. All right. Bob, appreciate it as always, man. Thank you so much. All right, buddy. The great Dr.
44:53
Bob, @drbobsports on Twitter. Once again, drbobsports.com for all of his stuff. We've done all we can do. Money Moves is next. Patrick is in the host chair. Enjoy from VSIN, the Sports Betting Network.
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