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Oct 10, 2025
A Numbers Game | October 10, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | October 10, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:43
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:11
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
That right there is my little buddy, Kelly Bilowit, everybody. Oh, here the, the, uh, computers begin. Are those the show begins? I was like, "What did my computer do?" Oh, wow. And it, it wasn't me. Yeah, it wasn't me.
0:29
Hey, uh, football Fridays, everybody. Football, yeah. Nothing... Well, I won't say nothing but football, 'cause we have baseball to talk about. We got other things to talk about.
0:38
Uh, not only do we have Steve Fezzik, everything that he, uh, wants to talk about in the world of sports betting, Chris Felica with multiple, and when I say multiple, at least five college football plays for the weekend.
0:48
But also Dr. Bob looking to keep his ridiculous college football season streak alive. Only one loss all year on the show. One. Six and one? Is that what the record is? Six and one, I think.
1:00
Or am I shorting- Seven and one? He- Or am I shorting him 'cause he did, did he do multiples one week or two? I think you might be shorting him. I think so. He'll tell us. I'm sure he'll know.
1:06
[laughs] I'm sure he'll- I'm sure he'll be the first to tell us. Oh, yeah.
1:08
[laughs] Uh, if you're in the state of Illinois, though, he's undefeated we were told, 'cause it was an Illinois game that he lost, and you can't bet in Illinois there, so undefeated there.
1:14
Um, Aaron Schatz is the bonus today. Uh, Aaron, the chief analytics officer at FTN Sports, always comes in on the quarterlies.
1:22
Because it's a 17-game season, that's a little, uh, it's a little tough to sort of manage precisely on the quarter, so he's here after week number five, heading into week number six.
1:31
And we'll, uh, we'll look at the league through the prism of DVOA, and something else he's, uh, he's started with, called, uh, now I, and I won't even get it, PGWE, post-game win expectancy. Ooh.
1:45
Looking back on games- All right... let's just take, we'll just take week five, since it's the most recent week.
1:50
Obviously it was Thursday Night Football last night, but, but week five, how many times a team that should have won did not in the National Football League based on, based on the box score, that kind of thing?
2:02
Arizona Cardinals. [laughs] That would be one of them. You are correct, sir. Nailed it. I'm done. Ah, boy, you didn't even need your own advanced stat for this one. Yep. I don't even need Aaron. Good job.
2:15
Good to know my computer's not updating this morning. That's awesome. Uh, here's the deal. So we also will, uh, we'll go through, uh, week six, uh, preview as well, review all of our bets.
2:24
Let us begin, and we'll, we'll talk baseball as well. Let us begin with that game in the National Football League, though, last night, uh, between the Giants and the, and the Eagles.
2:31
And let me just say this, um, the biggest takeaway, Giants, for those who missed it, Giants win this football game 34 to 17, and they win it in convincing fashion, as they say.
2:43
One point would've convinced me, Kelly, but you understand what I'm saying. A 17-point outright win by the New York Giants, who were seven-point dogs, seven and a half earlier in the week. And the Eagles, oh, boy. Yeah.
2:59
Oh, boy. Let me just say this, and I'll say this as a guy, again, who on guessing lines took the Giants plus seven and a half, right? Quick instinct, bang, there's my bet. And then all week, what did I say?
3:08
I was, I kept saying, "Can't wait to see how I lose this bet," right? Dude, g- great pick, right side.
3:13
Well, but this, I wanna say it from a perspective of a guy who had a winning bet, because when you say it as a, when you have a prospec- perspective of a guy who has a losing bet, everybody always trying to, "Oh, 'cause you lost a bet, but," you know, that, that story.
3:23
So I'll say this. We, we're meshugana betting on this stuff. We really are. And, uh, there was, there was so many people who made a great case, and I mean a really well-thought-out case.
3:34
And for God's sakes, we, I did yesterday, right? When we were going through the sh- or the game preview, of here's all the elements involved that might point you to an under. Mm-hmm. And the under, what was it, 40?
3:45
And the under was 40 and a half. Yeah, I was, I was on it. Yeah. Right? You were one of those on. I was on, yeah, under 41. Joe Peta gave a marvelous dissertation as to why the under was the place.
3:54
Like, this game was over in a minute. Mm-hmm. I mean, it was over so quickly. Um, for the, [laughs] for those who missed it, uh, Philadelphia, after the kickoff, was short of the landing zone to start.
4:05
Elliott, 42-yard field goal, three to nothing, Philly. That was their high point of the game. It was after an Olszewski 37-yard kickoff return, uh, Giants went six plays, 54 yards, dart to little Jordan Humphrey.
4:15
You gonna name your son Little Jordan when you, uh, when you have a child? In consideration. Okay. A big chunk on third and 12, uh, from their own 44. Three plays later, dart in from 19 on third and seven.
4:26
Seven to three, Giants, five minutes into the game. Philadelphia three and out. Giants, four plays, 66 yards. Dart to Wan'Dale Robinson from 35. Two plays later, or two plays after, they hooked up for 26. 13 to three.
4:37
They missed the extra point. All right, uh, Eagles do have their one big drive here, eight plays, 75 yards. Hurts flipped to Goedert from three out, 13 to 10. Now at that point you were thinking, "Okay,
4:51
my 10-point lead with seven and a half points, I see the world, the, the Earth is returning to its axis." Yeah, not so great. That was late first quarter, by the way. Giants three and out. Philadelphia,
5:02
13 plays, 74 yards, the last four on the Tuchus Push.
5:05
Okay, so this is the other little side element of this game that in case you missed it, so the Eagles take the lead here 17 to 13 with 6:56 left in the second quarter.
5:17
But the way that they did it was them basically, I, this is almost the final s- to me, this is the final
5:24
salvo of the, of the Tuchus Push, meaning that when this gets banned, people will look back at this sequence and say- Yeah... "Yeah, we can't have this anymore." And I'm not, I'm not saying if I'm an advocate or not.
5:35
All I'm saying is this is going to be cited as the example. Agreed. Right? It was third, it was third and one. I'll, I'll give you the exact. It was, it was third and one. Um, they didn't g- they didn't gain any yardage.
5:47
Third and one at the three. Fourth and inches then at the Giants three. They get the first down. That was the second straight Tuchus Push. They converted. First and goal at the one. That didn't get there.
5:57
That was the third in a row. Second and goal at the one. They get in the end zone, 17-13 And that is the end of that And which one were we clearly offsides on, the first one? Well, that was the thing.
6:10
So in other words, the latest... Remember, the people who wanna ban the tuchus push, it's, again, it's not aesthetically pleasing. Um, it causes injuries. There's no da- no data to support that.
6:22
And their latest thing, because those don't s- th- those haven't resonated yet for an, for a ban vote yet, is, oh, it's really hard to officiate. Mm-hmm.
6:30
And now with- That's stupid though, because- Now with the cameras, right, they are really seizing on when the right guard... The, the right guard does move early. Mm-hmm.
6:38
Does move early, but there's no way human beings can, as, as officials can s- can see that every time, if any time. And so that's gonna be the latest.
6:48
Well- When, when, by the way, I've always said the, the real argument against it is, well, defensive players can't push each other. Why should they be able to? So I, like- Yeah...
6:54
y- I, I think you've always made a great point with that. G- well, guess what? Some camera operator for Amazon Prime and a director caught that right away. Yep. So where's, where's replay assistance at?
7:04
This i- That's right... I actually think these are two different subjects. The, the false starts or, or offsides on the offense and whether the tush push should be banned or not are completely separate issues.
7:14
You have an officiating issue with a football play. Get that together. If you wanna ban this play from football, fine. I'm not gonna argue about it. But you know what? You know what, Gil?
7:23
It still comes down to, like, this is, it's the Eagles. It's only the Eagles that can do this well. Yeah. Like, I don't really feel bad for everybody else when that's still just the thing. Well, that's their argument.
7:32
Yes. That's that side of the argument, right? But y- each, your point, what have I said about all these kinds of things, right?
7:37
Replay assistant being maybe w- the greatest example of the NFL didn't tell us when it h- when it arrived. They didn't tell us what it covered, and then it just kind of was part of our lives. Right...
7:46
in the same way that Scott Hanson, you know, says, "Oh, the dynamic kickoff." W- well, we didn't know it was called that till you said that, Scott. Mm-hmm. And he said it a thousand times since then.
7:54
He still tries to push the dynamic kickoff, right? And, and I don't know. Maybe this is like, may- I m- mean, Gil, I'm not saying these people aren't extremely talented. Guess what?
8:01
Directors of national football games are very good at what they do. NFL, maybe you should hire some of these people if you're having s- uh, troubles with all the cameras and getting the right angles. 17-13 Eagles.
8:10
That was really their high point after the four consecutive tuchus pushes. Giants then go 16 plays, 67 yards. No play greater than nine yards. Scatabo in from 4:20 to 17.
8:21
Philly couldn't do anything in the last 1:19 of the, uh, first half 'cause they had no timeouts. And then third quarter, after a couple three and outs, Giants go 56 yards. Scatabo for 12 to the 1.
8:31
Then in on the next play, 27-17 Giants with 7:56 left in the third. Next time the Giants had the ball, first and 10 at the Philadelphia three, Dart was sacked by Patrick Johnson.
8:41
A hush came over the stadium 'cause Dart looked hurt. Mm-hmm. Had to go into the tent, though he did jog into the tent.
8:47
Russell Wilson comes in, and his second play, he throws the ball into the dirt [laughs] and the crowd cascading with boos. "Give us our guy back." Uh- Or Jameis at least. Come on. [laughs] No- Russell quit on you.
8:59
Literally no human is, is clamoring for Jameis- [laughs]... except for Kelly. Philly then matriculates, right? So then you're like, "Okay, well, it's... Listen, it's, you know, it's 27-17.
9:10
There's plenty of football to be played. Here comes Philly matriculating." But second and 10 at the Giants 15, Hurts throws it behind the receiver, picked by Cordale Flott. Returns it 68 yards.
9:20
Giants set up at the Philly 23. Uh, third and eight at the 21. PI in the end zone. Scatabo in from one. 34-17 with 9:41 left. And then Philly, what would turn out to be Philly's longest dr- uh, la- l- la...
9:32
uh, can't speak, last drive of the game, they do matriculate, but Hurts to A.J. Dillon for 11, lunging for extra yardage, punched out by Dave Belton, recovered by Drew Phillips.
9:42
And the Giants then take over with the la... It, it, it was 6:50 left, and the Eagles never see the ball again. That was one of those drives where, like, they moved 20 yards in five minutes. Yeah.
9:55
First down, set back, first down. It was just all... You j- Phil... This was a lackluster performance by the Philadelphia Eagles. And now it goes from, okay, you were four and one.
10:08
Your offense stunk, but you played a lot of good quarterbacks, so, you know, and your defense was still top 10 rated EPA per play. So you, you could spin it easily, right? Mm-hmm.
10:20
And, and, and I kind of did yesterday, too. Yeah, but you know, like the defense has been great against great competition. Now you're up against Jaxson Dart.
10:26
Even though your offense has kind of s- has sucked, your defense will be able to win this for you. Yep. And now it's like, oh, boy.
10:34
I mean, that took, that took all of, all of, what, 10 minutes of game time for you to be like, "Oh boy, the Eagles defense seems to be unraveling. And if this is the case-" Yeah... "this is a problem for this team."
10:43
And it never s- it never corrected itself. A- are the, are the Washington Commanders gonna win this division? I was gonna bring that up with you today. Is that a bet you're looking at? Because they are still dogs, right?
10:52
Yeah. Um- They're still plus money. Yeah. The... A- and hey, man, this is, look, I think world is crashing for Philadelphia today. I think that is completely deserved. Uh, A.J.
11:02
Brown after the game, uh, deflecting questions about whether he, whether the, he, he even met with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts this week. Oh, now that didn't happen. Did you catch that at all? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
11:10
Now that didn't happen. He's, "Not that I recall," Gil. That's what, that's what he kept saying. [laughs] Um, and then the vibes on the Giants side.
11:17
I mean, you always joke about, you know, find someone who loves Josh Allen as much as me, right? Yeah.
11:21
I mean, what's going on with, on that sideline, the, the love fest between head coach of the Giants and the quarterback and running back. This is, vibes are high in New York, man. Eagles minus 115 to win the NFC East.
11:33
Commanders plus 140. Cowboys plus 750. The New York Giants, 50 to 1. Coming back, wasn't good for Philly in baseball either. Yeah. Yeah. We gotta talk about that last sequence.
11:46
Coming back on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:03
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12:15
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12:27
That's 1S-T.com/V-S-I-N. Let's go, Alexander. That's, uh, Kelly Bidlin. I'm gonna Ron Burgundy through some tweets here in the early morning. Sure, go for it, Gil. In the early mornin'.
12:39
Um, Tronsky, "Literally my little buddy Little Jordan is not the only one clamoring for Jameis." Gills, "I, you stand corrected. Literally no one is clamoring for Russ." Well, I didn't say they were clamoring for Russ.
12:49
You know what? There's two great- there's two things here in this tweet. I, I would like to, I would like to replace little buddy with just Lil, Lil Kelly Bidlin. Lil Kelly Bidlin. Lil, yeah. Yeah. Lil, apostrophe.
13:01
Andrew at, uh, Dammit Andrew, he said, "Hey, Gil, I was at the kiosk deciding what I wanted to bet on for Thursday Night Football while listening to the pod.
13:08
Will chimed in and said he loved the under, so I probably bet the over. Never sweat, Will's picks are the best. Love the show."
13:14
Here's, here's the thing w- with Willie, though, you should know, like, the, it's also a testament to pre-flop NFL.
13:19
Like, it is not a representation of your, your betting acumen, 'cause then he'll go, he'll go in game and he's great. I mean, this is, yeah. It's just a thing. These are things, like, we don't like to bring it up.
13:31
Like, I was in on- No... the under pregame. Yeah. I also got in on the under live- Yeah... it got home, you know?
13:34
We, we, we don't do it o- we don't say it on the show 'cause then people are like, "Oh, you didn't have it on your shows." Right, right. You're acting like you're so sure you did.
13:40
Uh, Real Knicks, "Kelly's spot on with his point on the Tulkhus bush. The refs need to get it together first. That being said, he's also right that it's only Philly that can do it."
13:48
Well, you're making great points this morning. Nobody's ever made that point that only Philly can do it. [laughs] Good job by you.
13:52
"If my Dolphins tried it four times in a row, they'd lose three yards and Tua would be in intensive care." Oh, s- poor Tua. Poor Tua. It is, it is. I know, I, yes, I know I'm not the first person to say it. Yeah.
14:04
I, I'm s- I keep coming back to that, though, right? Like, it's, with all this, "Want to ban it," fine.
14:09
Like, show me that it works across the board, and this is gonna kill the NFL, and then absolutely, let's get rid of it. Jason Stark. Is Jason Stark the, the Steelers fan? Of course he is, Jason. Yeah, we know.
14:20
He said, "Oh, great, today we get to hear how the Ravens are the greatest team ever that has seven players, including their quarterback, injured through DVOA." No, I don't think you will. Yeah, yeah.
14:29
But you know what you will hear? The best three and two t- one of the best three and two teams ever, and one of the worst four and one teams ever.
14:36
I did, I did, uh, I did type up the, uh, the bottom of the, the top of DVOA for us for graphics. Oh, good. I will say, Jason, I was still a little, uh, shocked at how high the Ravens graded out on there.
14:48
Quoth the Ravens. Remember how clever Berman always was with that? Ryan Thompson. I thought he was. "Pushing an offensive player wasn't legal up until 2005.
14:57
NFL can always just go back to original rules regarding pushing a player with the ball." I'm with you, Ryan. That's my whole point. Fine, yeah. That should be their argument. It's very simple.
15:05
All this other stuff, they're just making up on the, "It's the, uh, it's the injuries. That's the ticket. Uh, it's the aesthetically unpleasing. Uh, it's the, it's the, you can't officiate it."
15:15
They're just coming up with stuff, right? That's the, that's the argument to make. Who, who's saying this? Like, a 1940s newsman? No, Jon Lovitz, Saturday Night Live, about 1986. [laughs] Oh, that was Lovitz. Okay.
15:24
Kevin Ryan, "Gil, the OC for the Eagles needs to be fired immediately. When the first two plays from their own 10 were Barkley runs up the middle and didn't convert on third and 12, I knew it was over.
15:33
Night and day with the energy between teams." Yeah, that too. The o- the other thing with, with Saquon also, and I know he's, he's also not getting the volume, but that stat that... Now, what's that stat?
15:45
Someone will be able to, to say it precisely. The one where someone gains a million yards the previous year, and then it falls off a cliff the next. Is... Can we start to quote that at some point in the year?
15:56
I, I mean, probably. Yeah. I, I don't... Last night was more obvious to me, though, than any other game the Eagles have played this year, and this is also a credit to the Giants' defensive front, right?
16:06
Like, that offensive line was getting pushed around- Yeah... all night long. But it was, it's a banged up offensive line. Mm-hmm.
16:12
Uh, Blue Hen Bill, "Roughest week in Philly sports since I had to live through the great 1964 pennant collapse as a 10-year-old. That scared me for life." Or s- I think he means scarred him for life, but he said scared.
16:22
Either way, we get the point. Speaking of that, uh, yesterday, Major League Baseball, so we had the, we had the doubleheader yesterday, and I guess catered to Phillies fans.
16:33
They played the, the afternoon game between the Phillies and the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine with all of the, uh, with all the shadows there. Yeah. Shadow Stevens. Ended, what, at halftime, right, of the football game?
16:45
Uh, it, yeah, it got to halftime I think. I think that's what I- I think it did get to halftime. It was right around there, if not. But what ends up happening, of course, for those who missed that, and this is...
16:54
First of all, let me just say this. The other game, the Cubs win. Let's just start with that real quick. Cubs win six to nothing against the Brewers.
17:00
So the answer to that question that I asked of Borchardt and Sporer earlier in the week, which is of the three teams that are down two to nothing, remember at the time the Tigers and the Mariners were one to one, but of the three teams that were down two to nothing, Cubbies, Phillies, Yankees, who is the most likely to get to a game five?
17:18
I said Yankees. Sporer said Phillies. And then remember Borchardt was like, "Well, it's really none of them, but I'll give you my numbers." And remember it was like 80%, 80%, 90%
17:29
likely that the favorites would, would not- Right... have to deal with a game five. The Cubbies incrementally were the lowest of those. But the answer's the Cubs.
17:37
The answer's the Cubs, and they do it, and they do it pretty, I mean, fairly easily yesterday. Um, three to nothing in the first. Added run in the sixth. Added a run in the seventh on a Kyle Tucker solo shot.
17:51
Added a run in the eighth on a Michael Busch solo shot. Six to nothing. Milwaukee tomorrow, uh, get, day after. Excuse me. Pardon me. Tomorrow, game five. Brewers number one seed. Uh-oh.
18:02
We gonna get Mizzy or Rowsky to start, or are they gonna bring him out of the pen? I would think they would start him. I checked out the Vsin newsletter, uh, this morning, and Greg Peterson thinks it's gonna be Miz.
18:14
Yeah. Miz to go. Nobody beats The Miz. Right now, that is, let's see, Brewers anywhere minus 125 to 132 I see out there.
18:23
All right, let's go back to the, the s- And seven and a half total, 'cause that'll be important for the next game we talk about. Let's get back to the matter at hand.
18:30
Philly and, th- th- the Phillies and the Dodgers yesterday, scoreless till the seventh. Glass now versus, um, Sanchez. Top seven, Castellanos one out RBI, double scores Kepler one to nothing.
18:44
Phillies, would that be enough? But the bottom of the seventh, runners at second and third for the Dodgers.
18:49
Rob Thompson intentionally walks Ohtani with runners on second and third, which I thought was the good move despite the fact that Ohtani was one for 17- Yeah... in this series. First base open, they put him there.
19:01
Bases loaded. Mookie induces a walk from Jo- uh, Joh- Johan Duran. One to one, and then Duran strikes out Tasker to end the threat. We go all the way to the 11th. Here it is Phillies fans, bottom 11, one to one.
19:15
Edmund one out single. Muncy two out single. Uh, Ha-Seong Kim, pinch runner, gets to third. So you have runners at first and third, two down. Orion, uh, Orion Kerkerian comes in for Jesús Luzardo.
19:30
Muncy goes to second on indifference. Kiké walks, so the bases are juiced now. Two down, bottom 11, one to one game. Andy Paez steps to the plate. Always remember Jason Weingarten. Dude, I was just gonna bring it up.
19:42
[laughs] Just gonna bring it up. First- Everyone, he, he loves himself some Andy Paez. First time I ever heard that name said, it was from Jason Weingarten. I'm like, "Did he just say Andy Paez?"
19:50
[laughs] And, and I had to say, it's spelled like pages, pronounced Paez. Paez, uh, what Vin Scully would call a nubber to the mound to Kerkerian. He, it kicks off his foot. He doesn't field it cleanly.
20:07
The f- by the way, the force is anywhere, right? You can go anywhere. Yeah. The bases are loaded. After it bounces off his foot, he f- he, after that fumble, in a panic he goes home.
20:18
It's an errant throw, doesn't come anywhere near Realmuto at home. Dodgers win two to one. Ugh.
20:25
Now here's the thing, and they win the game, they win the series, and as I, as I characterize it, and I'm sure many have, to me these are the best two teams in baseball, right? Phillies and Dodgers. So that is
20:36
boy oh boy leg up. But I'm just gonna, I, I'll say this. A lot is being made of the errant throw, right? A lot is, "Oh my God, he threw it away." That's, that's not the point to me, right?
20:46
'Cause after h- after it bounces off his foot, I'm not even sure that a perfect throw home gets the runner. I really don't k- I really don't know that as case.
20:55
Oh, I don't think it had a chan- I don't think it ever stood a chance. Right. The point is, and I don't know that people are making it a, people are like, "Oh boy, it was a," it was the brain fart of the panic- Yes...
21:06
of not going to first. Yes. 'Cause i- was Real Mu- uh, Real Muto even pointing that way? Real Muto was- He, I mean, he was going, "Go first." Real Muto is pointing to first base.
21:14
He's pointing at first base, and Andy Paez, by estimate, was about 50- Yes... feet away from first base. So if you have your head about you, you turn to first, y- you get the force, and you move on to the 12th.
21:26
No guarantee you're gonna win the game, but at least the game continues. But that, I, I just feel like everyone's, "Oh, what a terrible throw." Yeah, that's not the point. Yeah.
21:33
The point is, is that poor dude, any, and- I feel awful for him, man... poor dude. I, I mean, that- That-... that kind of moment, jeez...
21:39
you see that angle from the Dodgers dugout side where Kerkerian the pitcher is slumped over in despair. His, his head is bowed in despair, and the Dodgers are pouring out of the dugout past him.
21:53
It's one of, it's, it's a painting. It's brutal. It's brutal. It's a brutal, brutal image.
21:57
Um- A- and if you're someone like me who had a Do- like I have a Dodgers World Series ticket, thank you Adam Burke, uh, for that recommendation before the playoffs. Um, I mean, that felt massive, right?
22:06
Like feel for the, feel for the guy, be like, "I don't want this game to go to five," or "this series to go to five."
22:11
Like this, like you said, this is kind of where we said that whoever, whoever wins this we think is probably winning the World Series. They- Didn't want that to go to a fifth game. Here's the thing.
22:19
I have no idea what the Phillies were gonna do with pitching in game five, but that was a matter for another day. Right, right. [laughs] After what they, after what they, uh, put out there yesterday.
22:28
But the Dodgers move on. Dodgers play the winner of that Cubs-Brewers game five. And of course, the Blue Jays await the winner of tonight's [exhales] - Skubal on the mound...
22:39
Tigers-Mariners game five in Seattle with Skubal on the hill. We'll get to that on the other side, and Chris Fallica, all of his college football picks as well. It's a Numbers Game at Vsin, the sports betting network.
22:50
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on Vsin, the sports betting network. Don't forget, Vsin.com always there at your disposal.
23:05
NFL and college football betting hubs, Steve Macaden's NFL and college football best bets, Paulie Howard's week six kicker props. He's keeping with it. Is he still in Fuego? He was, he was hot to start the season.
23:16
I don't know. Let's check that out. It might be a thing for him. Yeah. Coming up today, ALDS game five previews, UFC Rio picks and predictions, and weekend college football matchup previews.
23:25
Don't forget, you sign up now for as little as 9.99, access all the Vsin Pro articles at Vsin.com/subscribe. We got tweets to beat of the book. Always appreciate it. Y'all are the best.
23:36
JasonH11, "I agree with Little Kelly. Jameis needs to be the backup. He needs the, he, uh, leads the pre-game pep talk. Players love him."
23:43
Montreal Max letting us know that, "Philly nightmare last night was not only the Eagles and the Phillies, but also the Flyers lost. City's first triple defeat in 40 years." Wow. I find that hard to believe. Me too.
23:57
IceColdGambler, "Hey Gilly, does Kelly get a dress code violation today for not wearing a collared shirt? Be careful, Kelly. Producer number 10 looking to take your spot." That's a good point.
24:05
The last part's a good point. I just followed Davin Jensen's lead in the morning It's casual Fridays Is that what it is? Yeah, yeah. Oh, okay. If I only had email. Oh, I do? Oh. Don't worry.
24:15
[laughs] I'm being, I'm being told I have email. It wasn't an email though. [laughs] Uh, prime time. Cowboys_Cubs1, yo. Hey, man. Lil' Kelly Bidley with incredible insights this AM.
24:24
"Philly's world is crashing down," quote, unquote. "Couldn't happen to a better city and the worst fans on Earth," he says.
24:29
At least the world turned those games off to watch the beloved Cubs dominate their suburban rival. He's very, uh, he's very biased. Judd O'Connor. But proudly so.
24:39
Judd O'Connor, "Every baseball play, if the ball comes to me, what do I do? Moment can't be too big to use your brain, even if it's the 11th against the Dodgers in the playoffs." Judd is right about that.
24:48
Every, every baseball play, you have to know the situation and know what, where you go. Yeah. So yeah. The, the biggest, the biggest problem with that ending is like I'm not sure...
24:58
Like you said it, he got so flustered right away when like the first thing went wrong, I just, I don't even know. I don't think he was thinking anything after that. Yeah. Let's talk some college football.
25:08
Chris Fallica joins us now from a mediocre hotel somewhere in this great land of ours- No... courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Oh, he didn't like that comment. Gorgeous. Not mediocre? What is it?
25:18
No, it, it's the f- the fine, uh, Illinois ho- Univer- University of Illinois hotel and conference center where I w- came from you, uh, two weeks ago. Oh.
25:29
Back in Champ- Did, did the, uh, the Indy- Indianapolis International Airport to Champaign drive in the middle of the night again last night for the second time in three weeks and, a- and here we are.
25:38
I, I did get the memo about wearing a collared shirt though, Kelly, so- Oh... I just wanted to do that- Man... to make you feel bad. For real, man. Pile it on. Good, good point. I'm glad you brought that up.
25:48
It's okay though. [laughs] It's a good look. The, the, the, the... I'm, I'm a big l- that's like a go-to travel, uh, apparel for me, the long sleeve T-shirt. It's a very comfortable, easy look. Yep. I agree. I agree.
26:01
Uh, one can assume you're there for Illinois and Ohio State. Do you have any thoughts on that game? I am. They... No, yeah, I, I, I have a hard time thinking Illinois is gonna be super competitive here.
26:12
Uh, if you look at their offensive line, they're one of the worst teams in the country in terms of protecting the q- the quarterback.
26:19
Uh, they give up a ton of plays on the ground, as well as big plays, uh, through the air.
26:25
A- a- and if you look at Illinois, uh, how they've done, uh, when they've been a big underdog lately, like you look the last four times they've been this big of an underdog, they scored 9, 7, 13 and 17 points.
26:37
So when they were in last year it was like 9 points at Oregon, 7 points at Penn State or something like that, so like i- it's been this Illinois team which won 10 games last year.
26:47
So I can't see it being super competitive. I think that Ohio State defense, uh, is really good. I, I think Ohio State will get out of here with a very comfortable win- All right... tomorrow. Don't...
26:57
Again, and do I wanna lay 14, 14 and a half?
27:00
Mm, hey, if you're in one of those picking pools, yeah, I would lay it, but I'm not running to the window with whatever your, uh, your stake is, your, your normal bet size is and, and looking to bet 14 and a half.
27:11
Yeah, not, not racing to lay the wood on that one. All right. Right. Let's talk about a couple more key match-ups.
27:15
Oregon and Indiana's fascinating also because there's the, there's the Heisman narrative thing happening underneath the game itself.
27:23
Do you believe that this might go a long way towards determining the ultimate Heisman winner? I, I do because... A- and certainly I think more so for, uh, for Dante Moore.
27:34
Because I think we talked a little bit about this last week, that, uh, I, I think either Indiana or, I mean, uh, Oregon or Miami are gonna wind up going 12 and 0, maybe both of them.
27:44
And, uh, the winner of, uh, maybe their conference championship game will be a quarterback 13 and 0 on a team that's gonna be number one or number two in the country, and I think ultimately it will come down to Dante Moore, uh, versus Carson Beck.
27:55
I like Oregon here quite a bit. Uh, Indiana has that Vandy feel from last week where a lot of people, oh, the plucky underdog, uh, Indiana. And then maybe, maybe Vandy should have covered, maybe they shouldn't have.
28:07
Who knows? But they ultimately didn't.
28:09
Um, you look at Indiana, what they've done on the road against really good teams, the college football playoff game last year at Notre Dame, the regular season game at Ohio State, they scored a total of 32 points, uh, three and a half yards a play.
28:25
They didn't score their first touchdown at Notre Dame until a minute and a half to go in the game. The score was 27-3.
28:31
Uh, they scored on their first scripted drive at Ohio State and then did nothing for the next 40 minutes, whatever, however long it was, and scored again when it was 31-7.
28:40
Uh, whatever the reason, uh, they've gone on the road and have not quite had the similar success that they've had at home.
28:46
E- even li- a couple of weeks back when they were at Iowa, it wa- they had 13 points on the board with two minutes to go, and it took that short pass and catch and run and broken tackle, uh, to get the ul- ultimate win at Kinnick.
28:56
So I think this is a great spot for Oregon. You, you know how Dan Lanning a- and that Oregon program loves to like play up the, the, the lack of respect. Oh, yeah.
29:05
Remember a couple weeks ago after the Penn State win, it's like, "Oh, is Oregon the best team in the country now? Wow, what a great win."
29:11
And now people are like, "Yeah, it wasn't really a great win, and Penn State lost to, to UCLA." Oregon stole Penn State's soul that night in State College. [laughs] They ripped their heart out.
29:22
If you think the same Penn State team that showed up last week in front of 3,000 people at the Rose Bowl was the same Penn State team that showed up for the White Out, I don't know what to tell you.
29:32
I, I, I li- I like Oregon here. I, I think they win by double digits. Yeah, no. The, the great thing about them is they don't kill themselves. They've allowed one sack and committed one turnover this year.
29:41
They don't do stupid things. Bad loses more often than good wins, and they don't do bad things. Say that again. Bad loses more often than good wins. So true. So true at every level. Um, I will say this though.
29:54
Again, just back to the, the initial question, which is if I- Indiana's a seven-point dog here.
29:58
If they somehow figure out a way to win this, we've always earmarked the Indiana losses as at Oregon and at Penn State, right? Mm.
30:05
So if they win this one, and, and hearing what you're saying about Penn State, obviously the UCLA game was the outlier, we're thinking not, not the opposite, all of a sudden then it changes the entire narrative on the Hoosiers though, doesn't it?
30:17
Correct. Okay, r- as of right now, there are no currently ranked teams remaining on, uh, on Indiana's schedule.
30:24
Maybe Penn State can work their way back into the ranking by then, but none of those other teams sure as hell are.
30:29
They got Michigan State and UCLA at home, uh, Wisconsin at home, and then the other road games are Purdue and Maryland.
30:34
So, uh, y- if you are a Fern- a, a Mendoza believer, um, a- and you think, uh, that Oregon, that Oregon is vulnerable here and the Hoosiers can go on the road and win, then it would be the appropriate time, uh, last chance to jump in on a Mendoza Heisman.
30:49
Just kinda like couple weeks ago was probably your best opportunity, best last chance on Dante Moore- Yeah... to get a, uh, a good number. Joe Pita holding onto a 150 to 1 ticket on Fernando Mendoza to win the Heisman.
31:00
Uh, all right, let's go to another marquee match-up, Alabama and Mizzou. The fighting Jeff Parlays of Mizzou. What do you got here? I think this is a great spot for Missouri.
31:10
I, I think if you look, couple weeks ago Alabama goes on the road, ends the nation's longest home winning streak.
31:17
Uh, last week they get an emotional win at home against Vandy, who they lost to last year as a 20-something point dog. Now you gotta go on the road to Missouri.
31:27
By the way, every o- every opponent Alabama has played this year has entered the game undefeated, which is kind of a, a, a cool little note. They got the dual-threat quarterback at in Probull.
31:37
They've got Hardy who is one of the best running backs in the country. They're rested. And they've got revenge. I, I know you're not necessarily a big trend or a situational guy, but it is interesting.
31:48
Like, I went back and looked because I'm like, "Oh, I totally forgot Alabama beat them 34-nothing last year." And it was a game that Brady Cook was hurt. The backup Drew Pine came in, threw, threw three picks.
31:58
And it was 34-nothing. And it were ranked versus ranked. And I'm like, I go, "I wonder what, like, if this has happened before." I went back and look. Last 25 years, you've had eight instances where a ranked team
32:11
allowed more than 30 points in a shutout loss but had revenge the f- on, on line, uh, the following year.
32:17
Five of those eight teams won outright, two lost by a field goal, and one wound up losing to the eventual national champion Alabama. So, like, this whole, like, revenge, reven- like, there's something to it.
32:29
Whether it, whether it manifests Saturday afternoon at, uh, in Como or not is another thing. But I think you look at the Alabama defense with the injuries that they've had.
32:38
A team that allowed 230 on the ground to Florida State. Team that allowed 230 on the ground, uh, i- in the win at Georgia and survived. I think they're a little vulnerable this week.
32:47
I th- I think Missouri's in a really good spot.
32:49
Uh, real quick before we'll, we'll get to the non-marquee match-up plays on the other side, as, as Chris is kind enough to join us for two segments these days, which we appreciate very much.
32:57
Do you agree with the sort of narrative that in whatever order Ohio State, Oregon, and Miami are the big three right now and everybody else is below that? I do. I, I, I do.
33:08
I, I think if you're, i- if your friends at Circa or maybe our Mishpucha Chrissy Andrews wants to hang a prop, uh, Ohio State, Oregon, and Miami versus the field, that'd be very, uh, willing to see what that number is.
33:20
I look, I, I think if you look at those three teams, they, they have a couple of things in common. They've got a quarterback that is capable of winning the game for them but doesn't have to.
33:29
And the way they are built both on the offensive and defensive lines, uh, they're just better than, than most teams in the country. They can just run the ball right, right down your throat if they need to.
33:38
They can bring a pass rush and say try and block it. Okay. And so far nobody's been able to block Baynor Mesidor. Chris Fallica, everybody. More on the other side.
33:46
His other plays next right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:04
Back on The Numbers Game. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin. Little Kelly Billin. Yeah. That's what we can call you from now on. I like that. That's a good double entendre because of your weight loss is what that is.
34:14
That's right. Inspired by Little Jordan Humphrey last night. Um, Fallica standing by for more college football plays. Also Dr. Bob coming up. Uh, Steve Fezzik and Aaron Shots. Football Friday.
34:26
Does it get better than this? Let's go. I do not believe that it does. Uh, we get tweets at Betty the Book. Y'all are the best. Seriously. I say it, but I mean it. Just wanna keep saying it. Bentley Roberts.
34:36
Oh, Bentley, this is such a great, this is such a great point. Uh, Bentley's at Hella 56, by the way. Like, Kelly is hella small now.
34:45
[laughs] One of the greatest mysteries in all of sport, Gil, is how an MLB pitcher- Quite hesitation there. [laughs] What's that? Quite hesitation there. Okay. [laughs] One... I was just trying to think what to say.
34:53
One of the greatest mysteries in all of sport, Gil, is how an MLB pitcher can throw 97 miles per hour on the black from 60 feet six inches, but you ask them to throw it to a base and they look like a third grader with their offhand.
35:04
It's unbelievable really. We were talking about that last night a little bit. It's just, it's the weirdest thing in the world. It's as old as time in baseball. Yeah. It really is.
35:12
I- it's like when the, it's like when the pro golfer looks like you out on the course too, right? Yeah. You're like, "How does that happen?" Right. That, yes. Uh, but, but throwing is so much more natural, right?
35:22
That's, yeah. That, that's like- That is true... Mike Rouse, "Can you ask Chris Fallica," oh, yes, we will ask him this, "about the athletic Heisman straw poll having Bane ahead of Beck?"
35:31
All right, let's, let's bookmark that. Let me read a couple more. Uh, Jamie Leyva, "I'm a u- I'm a huge Dodgers fan, and I felt horrible for the pitcher. All he had to do was throw to first.
35:40
I will take the win, but that poor kid. Also, excellent Vin Scully reference, Gil." Thank you. "Win for Vin. Have a fantastic day, gentlemen." Yeah, it was a little nuber is what it was.
35:48
String Fellow Hawk, "Nobody beats the Biz, Kelly?" Yes, no, maybe, so? You didn't get that reference? No. No. No, he didn't. Also bet, uh, best Giants win in I don't know how long. He's a Giants fan.
35:59
Uh, Rula pointing out the Mariners are 3 and 0 in games started by Skubal this year and, by the way, including earlier in this very series. Uh, we'll get to that coming up.
36:06
James NTU89, "Such a terrible way for the Phillies to go out. Dodgers win seems," and then he capitalizes the word, "unearned. Go Dodgers." See what he did there? Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
36:17
Irene points out to the, to the Hella 56 tweet earlier. He goes, "Well, pitching looks effortless because they're, they've practiced slowly over a long period making it seem effortless to us." Sweet Sita.
36:27
I'm telling you, Kirk Herbstreit is Thursday Night Football cooler. He always seems to be against the favorite. Just pay attention when the dog is losing.
36:33
And Bruce Dobbing going back the other way says, "I've probably watched bored MLB pitchers perform that throw it to first play a billion times over the decades.
36:40
At no point did I ever think that it would be a damn bit of good when it really mattered. Guess what? We all wasted our time those March mornings." He's talking about spring training. Oh, I was gonna say, yeah. Yeah.
36:47
If you, if you, if you ever get the opportunity, I'll put it that way, Gil, to cover spring training, at day one you're like- Yeah... oh my God. Like, I don't need the, what is it?
36:56
Fielding independent, uh, whatever that they're doing. [laughs] I like when you go with your- Pitching, fielding... with your hands. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Whatever that is. Yeah. And, like, nobody cares.
37:03
All the pitchers are there, and it's like, yeah, let me, like, jog up and grab this- Yeah... and throw it to first. [laughs] And finally DJ on Southern Gent.
37:10
"Gil, you know I love you, but gonna have to disagree with you about Jameis. The majority of the viewing audience last night was absolutely clamoring for him to come in. He's pure excitement."
37:17
Yeah, the Giants fans just wanted Dart back, though. But I hear you. Oh, this was a Biz Markie, uh, album. That's right. Nobody Beats the Biz. I should've known that one.
37:24
A play off the, uh, the Wiz Record Store Nobody Beats the Wiz- Right... motto. Nobody Beats the Biz. Nobody Beats the Biz. Nobody Beats the Wiz. There you go.
37:35
Uh, Chris Fallica, ladies and gentlemen, the Bear from Fox Sports. Uh, also the, uh, emperor of the BearBets Pod empire. You can follow those @BearBetsPod on Twitter.
37:45
Chris Fallica also part of the, uh, Big Noon kickoff show, of course, each and every Saturday morning on Fox Sports. Um, anything you wanna say postscript to your Yankees before we get back into college football?
37:56
No, I mean, I, I, we, we, we, we've shattered that all, all on text already. Okay. I- it's a team that they- [laughs] Okay... they, for all of w- what they've done, it, this little team with a, uh, a lot of heart.
38:07
I, I do wanna say, like, uh, with f- last night, I, I'm not making light of any potential concussion or anything, but w- was that, like, the, like, the most laughable, like, concussion protocol, like, ever?
38:17
They, they had everyone running in there. But d- Brian Daboll probably went in there and said, like, "Jackson, what's your name?" Oh, yeah. "Jackson. He's good to go." Yeah. "Put him, put him back in."
38:25
Where he stuck his head in the- Uh, like, clearly... stuck his head in the tent. Yeah, you're okay. Clear- clearly how that's supposed to work, right? Yeah. Yeah, the c- coach could pop his head in any time he wants.
38:34
Yeah. [laughs] Just to steal the line from Big Cat when on, on his power rankings on, on that he w- puts out on Monday, are the Giants frisky and fun? Like- They might be Yes... most excited.
38:44
Th- this has got like- Yeah... a four-year shelf life now for the Giants for the, and their fan base, regardless of how poorly or good, good it goes with, with Dart and Scatabo.
38:52
Like, they, they have, like, a legitimate, like, four-year window now where they won't care- That was a-... 'cause I love both these guys... that was a total Rigo drill at the end of that game with Scatabo, too.
39:01
Total John Riggins drill right there. Uh, all right, back to college football. Let's talk, uh, let's talk about a five and one football team that is a slight favorite. Iowa State, five and one.
39:11
This is, uh, tomorrow morning at Deion Sanders' Colorado team, and it's, uh, what are, the Buffaloes are two and a half point dogs here. I li- I, I... There might be some threes still out there as well.
39:24
Um, I like Colorado here. I was not expecting to come into the week liking Colorado, but the more and more I looked at, uh, went down and, and did r- did some reviews and looked at some numbers.
39:34
Like, Colorado very easy the last couple of weeks. Could have beaten BYU. They couldn't convert on third down. Last week, they were minus four in turnovers against TCU.
39:43
Uh, and now you get an Iowa State team who suffered the first loss of the season. And sometimes when you're kind of like an unexpected undefeated team, you get that first p- first loss. I think Dr.
39:53
Bob might have actually had a note on this, like, like, like, like, that first loss, it's a lot of times y- you maybe have a little bit of residual effect. Now you go on the road.
40:02
Uh, they've got a bunch of injuries in the secondary. You gave up, you know, eight yards of play to Cincinnati last week.
40:07
If Salter doesn't turn the ball over like he did last week, I, I think CU's got a really good chance to pull another upset. Okay, let's stay in the Big 12.
40:15
Not a five and one team, but a four and one team in TCU, also a slight favorite, even less of a favorite, one and a half point favorite at Kansas State. Y- yeah, I, I don't see TCU as a favorite here.
40:27
Uh, you went on the road a couple weeks back, lost to Arizona State. Last week, it was a r- very non-impressive win against Colorado, like I alluded to before.
40:36
The four turnovers and then got a late score to kind of get the, the ugly backdoor cover as a favorite, and you really shouldn't have covered the game. Uh, Kansas State did everything last week except win that game.
40:47
They blew a 14-point lead. Avery Johnson had his best, uh, game of the season. And, and, and if you go, you go s- four games now by a combined 13 points. So, like, the, the, we, we joke about the Plinko board.
40:59
Like, K State has been, like, the, on the wrong side of the Plinko chip all year long, haven't been able to win close games.
41:05
Remember a couple weeks ago, I loved them in a spot against UCF at home, and they absolutely blew the Knights out. I, I don't know if they're gonna blow TCU out, but I think everyone got excited week one.
41:15
Oh, wow, look at TCU with Hoover and that offense and what they did to North Carolina. Well, North Carolina stinks. And I, I think we need to kind of re- reassess our opinion of TCU.
41:26
Um, I, I, I think K State here is a super live slight, uh, home dog here to, uh, to win and maybe win by margin. Yeah. Well, just one correction. We, we take Plinko very seriously. We don't joke about it.
41:38
[laughs] It's a very serious thing. Correct. Yeah. Very true. Yeah. All right, to the, uh, to the Pack 2, if you will. Oregon State is winless. They're 0 and six. They're a three-point dog at home- Yeah... against Wake.
41:48
What do you got here? They, they are, and they really deserved a better fate, uh, the last couple of weeks. Appalachian State, uh, a couple of turnovers. Uh, the game against Houston, they wind up losing in overtime.
41:58
They very easily could have won, uh, one if not both of those games. Uh, and now you get a team coming cross-country, going the other way. Uh, upset win at Virginia Tech, now is a slight road favorite. I don't know.
42:11
You know, Malik Murphy, again, like, like Caden Salter, uh, he can make a lot of big plays. He can make you make some plays that go wow and make you play, make some plays that go wow.
42:20
Like, again, turnover machine but also big play potential. Uh- You hate to be like the, uh, just feels like Oregon State is due for a win because it's kind of a, kind of a remedial crutch type analogy.
42:32
But the way the Beavers have played the last couple of weeks, it feels like they're cycling towards, uh, putting together a complete game and getting everything figured out.
42:41
Uh, I like them here in, uh, in Score Valis as a, uh, a small home dog. Score Valis. I like that. All right. Let's get back to the, uh, the question from Mike Rouse on Twitter.
42:49
"Can you ask Chris about The Athletic Heisman straw poll-" Yeah... having Bain ahead of Beck? What's that all about? I...
42:55
The, the only thing I, I would say about that and I would worry about is, like, a lot of times, uh, the, the, the writers there, not all of them are Heisman voters.
43:05
They're just, like, media members covering teams and covering the sport. And look, I don't think anyone's gonna argue that Reuben Bain is the best player, uh, on the team.
43:16
But I just worry about coming down the stretch in the Heisman voting about quarterback... Remember last year.
43:23
With Hunter winning last year, are they really gonna go non-quarterback, non-running back another, uh, a second straight year? Yeah.
43:31
When you potentially would have a 13 and 0 Dante Moore or a 13 and 0 Carson Beck with a Miami team that wins the ACC for the first time.
43:40
I, I just, just think about the psychology of the voter and wondering if they'll really do that again. But we...
43:45
I me- I think we kicked around last week about Reuben Bain and his price potentially to be the number one pick in the NFL draft. Mm-hmm. With none of these quarterbacks really separating themselves.
43:54
If the Titans have the number one pick, uh, do they keep it and pick someone like Bain or someone else? Or does a team wanna come up and trade it?
44:01
So, like, if you're looking for a bet on Bain, uh, maybe that pick to be the number one pick in the draft might be a, uh, something you might wanna look at. Where is Reuben Bain on the Heisman list even?
44:11
Where, what is it, what is his number? I think he's like 19 to 1 or something like... Some- someone brought that up, uh, d- during the week as well on the BearBets pod and sent in a question.
44:18
I, I think he was around- 100-... 90 to 1 or whatever it was. 90 to 1. Yeah. Seen 120 at DraftKings. I, I'm scrolling, I'm scrolling. Or, or 120 to 1. Or 120. Hey, pizza money. I kept- Pizza money is, uh- Yeah...
44:29
a p- pitcher in Hollywood today. Yeah. If you're, if you're into a, uh, if you're into translating that straw poll into actual, there you go. There's a bet. Chris, thank you, man. Enjoy the weekend. You got it.
44:39
You guys do the same. Chris Fallica. We'll talk MLB and NFL next.
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