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Oct 10, 2025
A Numbers Game | October 10, 2025 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | October 10, 2025 | Hour 3
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44:48
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Transcript
0:02
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour number three on the Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM Channel 158, on a football Friday, right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN.
0:22
Uh, Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin behind the glass because in his seat, it's time for Fezzik Fridays. Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge.
0:35
It's time for Fezzik Fridays. You edge finder, you. What's happening, man? Steve Fezzik- Edge finder... Steve Fezzik, everybody. Steve Fezzik, a proper introduction.
0:45
The only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. Hello, everyone. Hello, Todd Wisniew. How is everyone? Oh, you wanna start there?
0:50
[laughs] All right, so earlier in the week, Todd Wisniew was on, and, uh, he was talking about, uh, the, the benefits, I'll say that in quotes, the benefits of parlays that one Steve Fezzik doesn't really acknowledge.
1:06
Is that a proper characterization? Yes. All right, you have what to say about that? Well, Todd correctly mentioned that one of my biggest criticism of parlays, you don't get the best number.
1:15
You don't- You only, you only get the best number for all the legs. All the legs. Yeah. Right. Yeah.
1:18
So, like, if one leg you could lay -105, another leg -108, now you're laying -105 or maybe -112 on the other leg, and that's, you know, a, a negative.
1:28
But one thing I see everybody do that in my opinion is wrong, is they love... Once they go one and oh, they're like, "Now we got options." [laughs] 'Cause we're risking 100 to win 260, all right?
1:38
And now I hate to, I hate to tell everyone this, but, but and, and no one thinks this way, all right? No. Once that first game goes final and you win, you didn't risk $100, 'cause that first leg won.
1:50
So you now have $191, because we're gonna turn this into the mechanical parlay. So that's how you should think about it, is say, "I've basically now risked $191- Mm-hmm...
2:01
to win the 172 or whatever it is on the second leg." So- It's similar to when we do the survivor update every week. We say, "Oh, now the intrinsic value of this entry is blank." Exactly. Yeah.
2:10
You cannot say, "I have $1,000 survivor entry." Right. No, you have a $4,084, whatever it is. That's right. It's the exact same thing. That is what you're, you're, you're buying into that this way.
2:20
The, the decision not to sell it to someone else basically means you're purchasing it for $4,084 or whatever it is, um, to move forward, and the, the, the, the fallacy, if you do a two-teamer and say, "Well, I risked 100, and now I can just, you know, willy-no, willy-nilly, you know, um, risk 150 back, and either way I make this huge profit," well, yeah, because you won the first leg.
2:40
So it's just, um, it's not accurate. And think about this. You liked team B on the second part of your leg, right? And so now why do you wanna bet on team C who's playing team B after team A has already won?
2:54
It doesn't make any sense. So now you've, you've, you've reversed direction, uh, in terms of what you like. So- Do you think most people think that way with their parlays? 'Cause I don't.
3:01
I think, uh, okay, and I'd alluded to this the other day with Todd.
3:04
I think most people, and I actually think the, the secret benefit to those folks who like doing these parlays that doesn't get acknowledged enough, and I mentioned this with Todd, was it...
3:15
Let's say they have a four or five team parlay. Mm-hmm. Let's, let's say they're dunking off a four or five team parlay one day, and they, they hit the first leg and then they hit the second leg.
3:24
I don't think most people do stuff.
3:27
I think they just let it ride, and I think that because it remains alive, I know this is against your sort of, your, your kind of brain, but I, but I think because it remains alive, it prevents them from making other dumb bets that they otherwise would've if that parlay had lost already.
3:44
Hmm. There's like an unquantifiable, um, whatever, whatever the opposite of an opportunity cost is, right? Mm-hmm. It's the, it's an unquantifiable thing that we never acknowledge with some of these folks.
3:56
That's interesting. I hadn't thought about that. [laughs] You're like, "Hmm, interesting." I, I do know if, I mean, if it's a big parlay- Yeah...
4:01
most people do hedge the last leg, and then I would say, "Well, if you're gonna hedge- Yes... the seventh leg, why didn't you just bet a 16 parlay? [laughs] Why did you pay the vig on the seventh leg," right?
4:09
That's right. That's right. Yes.
4:10
But that, that's, again, that's, that's why you're so interesting, because you think of it that way, and I don't think most people do, which is good to have you to sort of try to rejigger the thinking process.
4:19
'Cause you, 'cause you're saying, "Oh, yeah, you know, so why didn't you just do a six?" Whereas most people say, "No, no, no, uh, I like it, but now I must preserve cash."
4:29
Yeah, and it, and I, it makes sense if you're only partially hedging. You say, "I wanna get something back," you know, you make some small hed- But when they hedge it the whole way- Right...
4:37
they're just lock- They say, "I'm gonna lock in this huge profit." Yeah. It's like, no, you're locking in a loss. Yeah. You, you've won the 16 parlay. It's paid 50 to 1.
4:45
Uh, a, b- That's what the ticket's worth, and now you're, you're, you're paying some vig on that seventh leg. Yep. I, I appreciate that.
4:51
I knew you, I, we s- I wasn't gonna start there, but I knew you would have something to say about that, and so you brought up Todd. There we go. Purple Todd. Pur- [laughs] Purple Todd. Thank you, Wpzy Capital.
5:00
Thank you, JaCoBellas, for that purple image- [laughs]... of, uh, of Todd. That w- By the way, you know he made one for all of us, but that was the one that really stuck, the purple, the purple one. Oh, is that right?
5:08
Purple Todd, yeah. Okay. Um, okay. You have, uh, you have much to talk about. Let us begin with, uh, we can go in a different direction here. Let's just, let's start with some plays. How about that?
5:17
Let's start with the pl- some plays you have in college football. Yeah, let's go college. Well, like the doctor, I like Washington tonight, so.
5:23
Now, now you like it because Bob likes it, or you simul- or you independently liked it? Both. Okay. [laughs] Okay. I'm the great aggregator. S- Sorry to ask.
5:33
So if they're, i- the, the, the universe, everyone is aligning, everyone's looking through their telescopes, and their telescopes are not pointing to Jupiter, they're pointing at Washington.
5:42
Funny how you had the same bet there, there, Stevie. So, uh, there are many people that like Washington. What's, what's curious, the line isn't budging, you know? The line's been sitting at like 10.4.
5:52
Oh, b- little, little bit You know, blowing 10 and a half. Oh, wait. 11 and a half. What's this? What's this? [laughs] Yes.
5:57
[laughs] There's been an update while I was at Starbucks- I could do, I could do your whole act for you. What's this?... this morning getting my free coffee. So our Blue Horseshoe loves Washington. Yeah.
6:05
Ver- you know, very good. Um, I like also tonight South Florida-North Texas, another game that hasn't been getting...
6:11
I like under 67, you know, and this is hard, because this is an aggregation play, and the people I, that I respect make this total, like, right around 60.
6:20
And I've watched every North Texas game all year long [laughs] and they got this great quarterback and he just chucks the ball all over the place.
6:26
And South Florida, I watched them play, and they play so fast, but that's why. The total is 67, so, um, when my guys make a total of six points less- Yeah... plus, I'm gonna play it every time.
6:36
When, when you s- you, you said, you say there, "People I respect." I'm sure there's somebody out there listening to me like, "I wonder what it takes for Steve Fezzik to respect."
6:45
What, what would you answer to that question? Pretty much they send me who they like on Monday, and then on Thursday, all the, all the lines have moved in their favor.
6:55
Everyone is coming in and playing what they're playing later in the week. So, so more CLV-focused than- CLV... results-oriented. Oh, completely, because, you know, the one thing about the results thing, all right?
7:06
And Don Schlesinger wrote a great book, Blackjack Attack. Actually, it's not so great, because it's kind of, like, long-winded, but he has a great simulation.
7:13
He shows all these four different dudes playing blackjack and their disparate results, and one player's up 50,000, one player's down 30,000, just wild swings.
7:22
And they're like, "Well, Charlie's messing up and this is what he's doing wrong," "But Bob is doing everything right, you know, in terms of his card counting- Ah... and his bet sizing," and then- Come on, Charlie.
7:31
And then they s- he says at the end, "Just kidding. It's a computer simulation. Everybody played perfect." Yeah. It's just the variance.
7:36
People think, "Oh, I have 100 plays, you know, that's, that, you know, or 500 plays." You need, you could have 5,000 plays. It's not near... Go flip a coin 500 times. You'd be amazed how tails could dominate- Yeah...
7:48
even over, like, that's, that large a sample.
7:50
I, I ask because I f- I thought you would answer that way, and it is the age-old sports betting conversation which, you know, I, I've said it many times, I was reared, if you will, on, on the old Pinnacle newsletter, which was written by Simon Noble, but was really ghostwritten by Elihu Feustel- Mm-hmm...
8:08
our, our buddy, who should be in every sports gambling hall of fame, by the way. Um, but hi- that was how, you know, that was where I first y- learned about, oh, yeah, if you... The, the rate at which you get CLV, right?
8:19
So, so bookmakers will, will gauge your future success or the, or the likelihood of your future success or your future failure on the rate at which you get CLV, closing line value.
8:32
It is not, right, if, if, i- so in other words, if I go 15 and O and Stevie goes eight and seven, but Stevie's CLV is spectacularly better than mine, let's say I'm, uh, the guy get the worst of all of it, they won't look at my 15 and O and say, "Oh, that guy's good.
8:46
He's s- " They'll actually look at your eight and seven and figure you're a better bettor. Now, I've said this to some of the old-school bookmakers in town, right?
8:52
And they say to me, "Ah, I just wanna know who wins," right? They just, to, to them it's the proof is in the pudding. Well, they can go back 20 year, 10 year. I mean, for guys, you know, they can have enormous- Yeah...
9:04
you know, sample sizes. But I, I would argue they're wrong. Um, a- and most, most of m- most of the, the MIT grads or the University of Chicago grads actually study this and model it and everything.
9:16
They would say it just requires such a smaller sample size. And, and you know what?
9:20
The, a lot of the, the sharpest books would say these old-school dinos are wrong, because they'll kick people out after playing 10 plays.
9:26
They go three and seven, and they're like, "Oh, you got two points o- CLV on all 10 of those plays. We don't need that business." Hey, be careful with CLV. CLV does not mean you win. That's correct. All right?
9:36
People, the, and, and this is, this is really a subtle point people don't understand. I bet a game in football. I bet minus 110, all right? Line goes up to minus 115. I have CLV. You don't have enough CLV is the problem.
9:49
Mm-hmm. Because if you lay minus 110 and the game closes at minus 115 and the other guys are minus 105, basically what the no vig number is is the team you bet is minus 105 and their opponent is plus 105.
10:00
If there was a sportsbook with no vigorish, that's what the line would be, but you laid minus 110. So you actually have minus five cents in value even though you have five cents in CLV.
10:11
So you need a 10 cents in CLV just to break even. That's how difficult it is to win playing minus 110.
10:19
How about, how about when you have the Rams at minus three and a half and they close at minus nine and you still lose? How about that scenario? Yeah. [laughs] And, and magnifies it.
10:26
When you think about the money line- Speaking, speaking on behalf of myself... you, you basically have, like, minus 180, minus 175, and it closes, like, minus 300. And still lose. Ouch. Uh, all right, it broke your flow.
10:37
So you ha- you're on UW, you're on Washington, you have the under in the, uh, South Florida-North Texas game under 67, and then tomorrow you have a couple plays.
10:44
Yeah, so I'm, I'm Boise minus 16 against New Mexico, so, uh, you know, that's, um... Again, the line hasn't moved at all, but a lot of times it just takes one big betting group, right- Yeah...
10:55
to suddenly say, "Let's go," and, and they move on it. And, um, always dangerous going to Hawaii, but Utah State's not just better. They're way better than Hawaii, and so Utah State is, uh, minus one.
11:07
Uh, if you can get to minus 115, that's slightly better, so I'm on Utah State as well. All right. Uh, Stevie's sticking with us.
11:12
By the way, you can follow Steve on Twitter at FezzikSports, but God help you if you do, 'cause, uh, there, there is an angry, ornery man, uh, who, who writes those tweets @FezzikSports, not like this nice guy right here, who's very
11:26
schizophrenic, this guy. Get agitated. Bipolar. Um, Stevie has, uh, other b- sports betting things to talk about.
11:32
He also has a restaurant review, which I did not expect, but apparently he went and ate somewhere last night, and the man is transformed. Gotta talk about that on the other side.
11:40
Steve Fezzik right here on The Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:43
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:06
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12:14
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12:25
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12:38
Uh, Trip Tapper said the same thing about, uh- Daniel Jones. The Daniel Jones comp to him is Jim Plunkett. Plunkett, number one overall pick, 1971, by the New England Patriots.
12:48
His stints with the Patriots and Niners were plagued by injury and average play. He signed with the Raiders in '78, won two Super Bowls with the Raiders in '80 and '83. Yeah, don't remind me of the '83 one.
12:58
David Chalifour, "Yo, nobody beats the Wiz, not even Sofr King, because he's so freaking good." [laughs] That's great. Steve Fezzik, do you have an answer to that question?
13:06
Like, what is the, who is the Danny Dimes comp historically who objectively stunk at football for like five years and then showed up and it was just awesome all of a sudden? I'll have to think about that. All right.
13:17
Yeah. Okay. Plunkett, Gannon. We have a couple, uh, D- Sam Darn- Oh... Sam Darnold. Gannon's good. Sam Dar- I thought Gannon was a great one for- Yeah, yeah... my buddy, Resa, yeah.
13:25
Um, Sam Darnold is the most recent sort of example, but not quite like Danny Dimes, but, but similar. Um, okay, I have a question for you. Uh, well, first of all, let's do the restaurant review.
13:35
What, l- what, let's pay off that tease. What's the restaurant you went to last night for the first time? Went to Aria. Yes. Jean-Georges. Oh, I love Jean-Georges. Steakhouse. What a phenomenal experience.
13:45
I mean, I just, I couldn't get over, like it, like Vegas is getting slammed, greedy Vegas, gouging people, not worth it, you know. And I've been to many of these, uh, stuffy, overpriced steakhouses and the like, and, and
13:58
the experience was just tremendous there, um, from d- the, the time you walk in to the being greeted by the staff, the ambiance, not stuffy at all, fun, classy. Yes. Um, met some clients there, and had the filet.
14:14
It was one of the best steaks I ever had. The hearts of palm salad was great. Um, good steak in Vegas is gonna run you 100 bucks, but it was less than $100, so I, I didn't feel like I was being gouged at all.
14:24
I'm like, "Why is i- why isn't everybody coming here?" You know? 'Cause it's probably a little more expensive than the average person wants to pay. That's, that's probably the answer to that.
14:33
But I agree with everything else you said, which is it is, I- you know, car- it's, it's right to the right, if you're looking at the restaurant, it's right to the right of Carbone.
14:42
So Carbone is, you know, veal parm, spicy rigi- rigatoni bocce, all that stuff. But Jean-Georges, I, I probably watched 15 NBA playoff games there- Mm-hmm... this, this past year.
14:52
You just sit at the bar, you get the, the filet is, it's always good. You always get a great steak there, cooked exactly how you want it. But what they are really known for is the short ribs.
15:02
That's, if you're a short ribs fan, that's their thing. And, and my pet peeve at so many of these fancy, fancy places is the bread is average. Yes. And they have, like, the hot, piping, you know- Oh...
15:11
great bread, you know, on top of it, and it's like they, they, they've just got it right at every level, so. Best bread in town at a steakhouse, Bavette's, Park MGM. Really? Best bread. Okay. Oh, so good.
15:22
It's the, the, it's so gluten-y. Oh my God, it's great. All right. Hey, by the way, some deals are coming.
15:27
I, I noticed as I was walking through the Strip, I was seeing, like even steakhouses, this was a, a steakhouse at the, um, um, at the Horseshoe. All right?
15:35
And they had, um, p- the prime rib on the menu is like $120 [laughs] and then it's like, "All you can eat prime rib, $49." I think, "I think I'll go for the- [laughs]... the 49."
15:43
They have, like, $7 shrimp cocktails and sundaes and stuff. So Vegas is recognizes they've been gouging people, and I see more and more deals popping up. Yeah. I'm not gonna go there, but I, I hear you.
15:55
All right, uh, Survivor this week. Let's talk about this. I, I hate when you phrase things like this, man, 'cause I always wanna push back on this. You go, "Survivor, why Green Bay is a slam dunk this week."
16:06
Oh, don't ever say that. Have you watched this league? Nothing's a slam dunk. You have to play Green Bay because they're gonna win the game 90% of the time.
16:15
Now, if 80% of the other competitors are gonna take Green Bay, then you don't have to take Green Bay. Thank you. That's what I'm getting at. That's the real key. Yes.
16:23
That, that, that when everybody zigs, then it's really clever to zag.
16:27
So this is what I was saying earlier in the week is if you knew, which you don't, by the way, 'cause you only know the percentage who've taken them after the deadline, but if you k- let's take, let's take Grandissimo, 'cause there's only 16 entries left.
16:40
Yes. Right? 16 different people. That's where that really comes into play. So if I knew that of the other 15 guys, 13 or more were gonna take Green Bay- You gotta go against...
16:49
I'll go, I'll just stay off and pick something else. Exactly. Find a different path.
16:53
Would you stay, or in that case, would you stay off it, or would you take Cincinnati to, to, to get the kill shot and win all that money? Oh, no, I, well, i- i- if all- 'Cause that's how you really should play it...
17:03
if all 15 took it- Yes... I would, I, I, I would go and with the kill shot. Yes, if all 15, yes, that's- But if only 14 of the 15 of them- Then no... there's one other guy, then no. That's fair.
17:10
Because obviously, since he's only gonna win 10% of the time. That's fair, that's fair. All right? But if it was all 15, you have to do it. Yes, because then I'd have a 90% chance of, of, of, of, of, of winning. Right.
17:20
You know, the unlike, in the unlikely case. By the way, if there was a tie, does it, is it chop there, or does everybody- Yeah... move on? No, it's a chop. Chop. Yeah. It's a chop. It's a chop. Um- Yeah...
17:29
but everyone, all week long, there's nothing but Survivor podcasts, and do you think those podcasters are gonna come on and say, "Take Green Bay?" [laughs] It's like a no-brainer. Yeah.
17:38
They're all gonna find, like, clever ways. A- and I u- I use the example, it's like those, remember when we studied the early explorers and they're trying to go around the world? Mm-hmm.
17:45
And they're always trying to go through that Northwest Passage- [laughs]... and they're, like, going through, like, Hudson Bay, and it's like there's ice everywhere- They're iced in [laughs] Yeah.
17:52
They're just not even- For three years... they're not even getting close. Yeah. I think that was, uh, Shackelford down in the Antarctic [laughs] Oh, I'm sorry... I think that's where.
17:58
These guys had to eat seals for two years. All of them survived, by the way. I thought there was some Arctic ice in, in situations as well. Oh, there were up north too. Yeah.
18:05
But those guy, those, but those guys didn't survive. [laughs] Oh, they, they didn't live to tell about it. That's right. Yeah. Um, but, um, yeah, so I, what percentage do you think will take Green Bay?
18:14
I'll say two-thirds only. Oh, I think, I think it's less. Less than two-thirds. I do. So, so you cannot play Green Bay. Yeah, I think it's gonna be a re- I mean, you cannot avoid Green Bay.
18:23
I think it's gonna be, in, in, we're talking about Survivor classic now. Yes. The, the bigger pool with 4,646 entries left. I'm gonna say 50%. Yes.
18:32
And given that's the case, just, um, survive and advance, and remember, your, your little $4,000 entry [laughs] is gonna be worth 5,200 probably. You know, it might be worth less, might be worth more.
18:42
If Green Bay wins, let's say it's 5,000, and you're like, "Oh, now I'm betting Green Bay basically minus 400." Yeah. That's a pretty cheap price. No matter what, it will be the most selected-...
18:52
pick of any week thus far this year. Yes. That's for sure. Uh, okay, this is also an interesting one, and I, and I wanna, you know, I wanna know h- is this really true?
19:03
'Cause we say it a lot, and then I don't think we take a beat to sort of ponder it afterwards. You say November is a much easier month to win in than September is. Now, the, the logic, of course, is very simple, right?
19:16
The reason is that once college basketball and the NBA and NHL now kick in, the bookmakers, you know, just overloaded, and good bets stay out there for much longer period of time.
19:26
Now, and I, I, I, I would, I would agree that they stay out there for a much longer period of time.
19:30
You say sportsbooks have limited bandwidth and just over, and just overloads them to have lines up on so many different sports. Now, I will agree with you with college basketball, right? There's 310 D1 teams, right?
19:44
So there's no way that every one of those lines can be good. Yes. It's just too many games. Mm-hmm. But are we exac- so let's take that off the board. Are we exaggerating it besides, then?
19:57
Like, does, does, does the presence of the NBA and the NHL really affect, say, the N- NB- NFL? Like, in other words, these books are sophisticated, too, in their own respects. Mm-hmm.
20:07
Like, they have people making lines for all this stuff, or at least monitoring lines if they're not making them, right? Do they? Do all these books really do all that? Not all. Yeah. Not all. You're right. Not all.
20:17
But- I think they've got one guy- Yeah... I mean, I, I was down at Pinnacle, right? You know how- Yeah... you know, you, uh, Pinnacle, like the- Pinnacle does... paragon, the pinnacle of all sportsbooks. That's right.
20:25
You know they monitored all this information? Henry's staring at the screens like, "Whoa, whoa, whoa, what's going on with the Wisconsin-Green Bay game?"
20:32
[laughs] I mean, literally, he's just looking for, like, like- Yeah... Grande just went to minus four. He's not even, I mean, they're not surfing the internet. They're not looking at B writers.
20:40
They're, they're, they're- Well-... looking for movement from other books... I guess, I guess what I'm getting at is what's the saturation point? Mm. Like, I, I think we, we may exaggerate just how low it is.
20:49
But there's no question that the college ba- Yes...
20:51
when you have 100 games, and my pet peeve on Saturday, "Oh, just go a- g- you know, just go ahead and b- a- a- and bet Utah State," and it's like it's on page six of the j- how, how about- You want rotation numbers...
21:01
give me a rotation number. [laughs] And, and then books have moved away from it. Just drives me crazy.
21:05
But, like, the poster child of why I'm right about this is that there w- there was one year, and I'm, uh, that there was a Atlantic 10 game, like a Duquesne game, that the total should've been 140, and the game before it, the total was 128.
21:18
And the first sportsbook to put up the total copied wrong, so they put up, like, one, it was, like, 124, all right? And literally every, like, 15 minutes, that total went up by a point.
21:28
[laughs] It just slowly kept moving. People just banging it. People just banging the over- Yeah...
21:33
and it's like, but, but, like, if all these sportsbooks really were making all their numbers, someone would say, "Well, this is, these idi- these idiots are putting up 125.
21:41
W- w- w- and, and, and we make it 141, so we'll, we'll put up a, we'll put up a 130, and we'll just let them, you know, bet as much- Well... a- as, as much as they want." Clearly they're not all making their numbers.
21:50
Yes. But, right, but you would think, edit, you would think, he says, not skeptically, right? They would be able to have someone at least monitoring the situation at all times.
22:00
I, I just, I just wanted to make the point that while I agree with you on college basketball, and maybe even c- it even strikes me that college football, it's tough to, right?
22:10
Like, okay, they've got used to that in September. Do the other sports really affect it that much? I don't know. Well, like, dude, let me give an example. Yeah.
22:17
So this morning, and, and we're not even into, you know, uh, college basketball yet. Yeah. So, um, I liked Phoenix 'cause I saw, I'm, I'm not up on the injury situation, but Phoenix was laying four against the Aces.
22:28
Yeah. And now they're the underdog. And there should be, in the NBA, when you go to a g- a, a, a Game 4 and you're down 3-0, oftentimes there's, you know, the, the Charles Barkley, "Pack your, your golf bags.
22:38
Get ready to go," but I'm not so sure the gals are gonna feel the same way. But now Phoenix was catching plus three, and it got bet down to two, and I'm still able to get plus three. Easy-peasy. Just stroll- That-...
22:46
on into a book in LA... that Aces money line was staring at me all day. Didn't bet it. Mm-hmm. Just staring at me. Look, we're here. Big money. Coming back, more Fezzik on the other side. Numbers Game. Peace.
22:56
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. As the season settles in, the NFL market gets sharper. Finding edges isn't easy, but that's where VSiN Pro comes in.
23:11
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23:20
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23:37
Don't wait, this offer expires on Sunday. Lock in 40% off today with promo code ANG at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Skill Alexander, uh, Steve Fezzik is here, ladies and gentlemen.
23:51
Uh, always does our Football Fridays, kind enough to join us for not one, not two, but three segments on the show. You know what I never asked you?
23:57
I never asked you, like, do you have stuff you wanna plug that, that people can find you beyond here?
24:01
If, if someone's listening to you and discovering you on this show, where else can they find you in the, uh, sports betting universe? Well, just, there's people pretending to be me. So- There's that...
24:10
so the only legitimate @FezzikSports on Twitter, and I only sell my picks pregame.com. So if there's someone else selling you picks @SteveFezzik, dot, you know, Meggopoly [laughs] that is not me. Yeah.
24:22
So don't, don't buy picks from him. Fezzik Sports, again, I, I joke with Steve, but, but Stevie is a horrible human being on Twitter.
24:28
He's an awful human being, but in real life he's a little more mellow, so we appreciate that. You getting better on Twitter, or are you still awful? I- Yeah... I've been slipping. That's what I thought. Yeah.
24:37
That's what I thought. Uh, Numbers Guys say, "Hey, Gil, uh, Steve, we're s- regarding sitting at the bar, I've been to Carbone once, but best food maybe ever and outstanding service while sitting at the bar.
24:45
Looking forward to checking out Jean-Georges next time in Vegas." There you go. Uh, say hello to Darren at the bar at Jean-Georges. Tell him I sent you. Tell him Stevie sent you.
24:52
By the way, never pay for a drink in Vegas. No, I just did because someone paid for it. Yeah. But, but as far as- You know what?
24:59
One of my favorite things to get a free drink is I, I, I'll go into, like, a, a high limit room, and I'll, I'll [laughs] sit down at, like, a $200 table, which I do play at, at times, some blackjack, and I'll wait, say, "Oh, I'm gonna wait for the shuffle," [laughs] and then I'll order an old-fashioned with Woodford.
25:12
What? My drink comes along before the shuffle point, you know, and then I'm like, "Oh, wife needs me at home. Thank you." Ah, wow, Kelly making bets here during the show.
25:20
He's pointing out some numbers for me I'm, I'm startled by in the Coach of the Year market as well. Um, all these things fluctuate on a week-to-week basis.
25:27
So, uh, again, those numbers we talked about with Aaron Schatz, always shop around for all of those numbers.
25:32
Love the Aaron Schatz stuff, where he's like, like, people wanna look at the, at, at the win-loss record, and it's irrelevant. You know, it's like, "Hey, the Rams beat the 49ers." I don't care what the scoreboard said.
25:44
Yeah. I don't care that you're not allowed to be in Survivor anymore. Bro. The, the Rams won that game. This is, this is the thing. Why did I say earlier a week ago?
25:51
The, the dumbest people in the world are the Survivor chirpers, right?
25:56
Like, "Oh, yeah, I'm sorry, you, you were smart enough to know that the guy would flip the ball before he crossed the goal line and that the interception would turn into a touchdown. You, you were smart enough to...
26:04
Okay, you're, you're so much better at this than I am," right? The reason that that is so good, what, what Aaron is doing, is because the NFL more than any other sport, this is the case, right? Mm-hmm.
26:13
Where the wrong team wins all the t- six times last week. What are we doing? And I think some of the success stuff, I, like, the, the, the, the... You know what these, be careful.
26:23
Be careful out there with these new kid- these young kids- Yeah... that suddenly are, like, so much better with what they do- Mm-hmm... than the old guys that are, have made a living for 30 years, right?
26:32
And they got their EPA and their success rates, and, like, their quote. You know, think about success rates, right? If I complete a five-yard pass on first down, that's a successful play.
26:41
If I complete a 60-yard pass, that's a successful play. Do you think they should count the same? I'm just saying that there's, you, but, like, like, Barry Sanders would have a lot of unsuccessful runs.
26:51
He's still a very good running back. All right, what is this la, what is this mishigas you got here, Stevie? Uh, mishigas, by the way. Uh, you are, the, I'll read it how you put it because otherwise I won't get it.
27:02
He goes, "Those specializing in the NFL, those specializing in the NFL betting sides and totals who are betting under 10,000 a game are doing it all wrong." What the- Stop betting the NFL. What the heck?
27:16
If you're an average person and you're betting, like, 100 to $300 and you're winning on sides and totals, you would be printing money playing in Atlantic 10 basketball.
27:27
So if you love the NFL and you're s- i- if you're able to be profitable in minus 110 playing sides and totals in the NFL, you, I got great news.
27:35
Because you are gonna make so much money playing more beatable sports like tennis, like golf, um, ah, that, that, that book 2020 Sports Betting: How to Make Money like the author, uh, Logan Fields. Logan Fields.
27:47
Half of his, um, bets were golf advantage plays. And, like, the just, the edges are just so much higher when it comes to that. Now, if you're playing in the NFL and you're playing player props, that's fine.
27:57
That's absolutely, you know, a more niche-y type of market. But these sides and totals es- especially with all these betting exchanges, right before the game kicks off, you can play either side minus 102, all right?
28:08
So will there be good bets at minus 110 when you could play them minus 102? Probably not, because the liquidity is so enormous.
28:15
So if you're able to beat it, God bless you, you are, like, one of the most skilled bettors in the world, and you're, you're, you're basically playing at a poker table with, like, the best poker players in the world.
28:26
If you can win at that game, you should be able to fi- you know, imagine how much you're gonna win playing against people that aren't good at poker. Yeah.
28:32
And now you realize, I hope you do, that most people don't have $10,000 to bet on a game, but your point is, is that unless you're doing it on a large scale, like, if you, if you're good at the NFL, you should absolutely be doing it at a large scale, or don't do it at all.
28:45
Y- yeah, because it, it's just so hard- Yeah... to beat the NFL.
28:49
So if you love the NFL, you know, you know, a- and, or you're just doing it for recreation, that's great, but if you're really serious about winning money, you should be, um, and you're only betting, like, 100 to 500 a game, I would find a different sport, a different niche to really focus on.
29:03
What, like, even baseball, like, you could focus on Nerfy Yerfy, you could focus on Grant Salame- Oh, can we talk-... runs, hits, errors, things like that. Can we talk about Nerfy Yerfy today? Sure.
29:11
All right, so we have Tarik Skubal on the hill against the Mariners today. He's good. George K- [laughs] is good. Good analysis. Uh, George Kirby going for the, uh, for the Mariners.
29:21
Tigers are pl- are minus 128 in game five in Seattle tonight. Um, and so people like to bet these yes, no, yes or no runs, or a run will be scored in the first inning, yes or no.
29:33
Now, when you have an ace like Skubal on the hill, the yes price will be bigger and bigger plus money, right? If it was two aces against each other, that becomes even bigger and bigger.
29:44
Now, this, this market wasn't nearly as good as it once was, but here we have a plus 170 on the yes. What's the no price on this? Uh, minus 200. Minus 200. You betting this? No. You're not?
30:00
No, but it, it's the highest I've ever seen on a Nerfy. I've never seen an em- Oh... a no at above minus 200, right? Well, I will tell you that in terms of yeses- Mm-hmm...
30:10
there used to be plus 170s back in the day once in a while. Hmm. But it, but it never really, plus 150 was where it kind of topped out. There might have been a plus 170. Uh, there were, there were a few plus 170s.
30:23
It, it, it's happened before, but it's, it doesn't get much higher than this. Let's put it that way. Um, I think I might take a little- That right? Yeah. I think I might take a little stab at that.
30:33
You know, you know, it's interesting because you like Detroit in this game. Plus 175, it's circum being told. Oh, okay. Yeah.
30:38
You, you like Detroit, and so, you know, one alternative way to get at Detroit if you don't wanna g- b- like, first five, I'm sure they're, like, minus 140, something like that.
30:46
One thing I like to do is I like to bet the road team in cases like this to win the race to, like, three runs- Yes... and four runs. Mm-hmm. Because if Seattle wins the game, it might be no action.
30:57
It could easily be a 2 to 1 Seattle win or a 3 to 2.
30:59
Like, if you, if you w- if you bet race to four runs, it's, it, it, you have a nice little buffer that as long as Skubal pitches great- You're probably gonna win, or worst case, if Detroit can't hit, which they can't, you're gonna push because no one's gonna get to four runs.
31:15
I love books that have all these offerings, right? Not every book does, but I love the ones that are. We, we, we have played the, uh, first three lines and- Oh... all year long. Oftentimes you, you- Yeah...
31:25
the first five steams. Yep. And so the first five goes up to, like, minus 150, but what's this? You can still get a- What's this? [laughs] You can get a first three minus 128. That's a beautiful thing. Yes.
31:36
And it's, so it's, it's one time or one and change through the order. Same concept. Yeah. You, you, you believe your starter has- Yeah... the advantage more often than not. Yes.
31:44
But, but there is, you know, there's, it erodes, the starter's performance erodes every time through the lineup, so that is the most pristine, clean way to do it, is to- And I l- I love me, like, if I like first five under three and a half, I love me first three under two and a half.
31:58
If I can get a two and a half, because it takes a crooked number to beat me, and you know those crooked numbers are a lot more common in inning five than in inning two. Last two things.
32:07
Uh, one, back to the football thing, back to the NFL specifically.
32:10
So we're talking about it, it's like, you know, it's, it's, again, six games last week, the wrong team ended up winning, um, based on what Aaron was talking about.
32:18
Do you think you could ever get to a point, Steve, where, where you just wouldn't ever bet a sport? We'll, we'll use the NFL as the prime example, but do you think you could ever, do, could you ever envision
32:30
you getting to a point where like you just, you're like, "I'm not betting this sport anymore. I just can't do it anymore"? Hmm. I, yes, and here's why.
32:36
Because there are some, like team totals, I used to play team totals all the time in the NFL, and the team totals were minus 110 in each direction, and now a lot of books are charging minus 115 and minus 118, and Gil, it's just too much.
32:48
I can't win, you know, into that kind of vig. So that's an example of something that I used to bet a lot into, and it is so rare that I ever bet a team total anymore because of that, of the market number.
32:58
Right, but I'm talking about a sport entirely. Hmm. The NBA. The NBA. I, I have really, really, I don't like the NBA, and I used to beat it, and I s- there's stuff that works in the playoffs. Yeah.
33:08
I just don't enjoy it, and I d- haven't done well. And my friend Jared's like, "Steve, what are you doing? Stop betting the NBA," and I, I, I finally took up on it.
33:16
The w- the winner of the NBA bracket challenge at VSiN, Steve Fezzik, saying this. True. Different story, but you get the idea. All right, last thing. You ready for this?
33:23
As we go out, Todd Wisniewski made the outlandish remark earlier in the week that you, Steve Fezzik, look younger than I do. Do you agree with Todd Wisniewski? I think you look younger than Todd.
33:36
One of us is coloring his hair. I'll let you guess who it is. Wow. I've got Salt-N-Pepa going right now. Oh, there you go. That'll do it. Right? I mean, look at all this gray hair out here.
33:44
Oh, Stevie, Stevie, gotta- See? That shows this must be real... gotta get it coloring, man. What are you doing? Steve Fezzik. Thank you, Steve. Appreciate it as always. Thank you.
33:50
We'll recap all the best bets next on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:09
Numbers Game live from Circa Resort and Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. Gil Alexander, back in his chair, Kelly Bidley, everybody. Hey, y'all. Producer number nine. So much more than a producer.
34:20
So on his way out, Steve Fezzik, shots fired. He says, "What are we doing with that chess match?" What, what are the odds he's giving you? I'm getting 100 to 1, man. 100 to one.
34:29
I mean, this is totally Kevin from The Office. Like, are, are you kidding me? I will try to, like, if Greg Peterson wants to run a race and I get 100 to 1 odds, I'll still try.
34:37
Anytime somebody gives you- [laughs] So wait a minute. So are we gonna do this on the air? I, I don't, that's what I brought up. I said, "Let's do it r- right now next week."
34:45
I'm totally allotting a maximum of one segment for this, 'cause I think he will take you down. This will be the, the, no, we'll do the, the cameras are set up perfect. Steve can, this will be part of the challenge.
34:55
Right. Steve has gotta do his normal segment- Oh, wait a minute... and we'll put the board right here- Oh, he-... and I'll just sit off to the side He's not gonna agree to that.
35:02
You mean, I'm doing my normal interview with him- Yeah... and then you just mosey on in and you guys play chess while he's doing the interview so he's distracted?
35:10
By the way, so we were just, y- yeah, yeah, he'd be distracted. Yeah, yeah. Oh, you're already gaming the game. What are you, Matt Brown all of a sudden? You already coming up with stipulations.
35:16
Trying to game, trying to game the game. [laughs] The, uh, the other one I'm trying to decide, Gil, is like, do I do a fake-out game at first with him?
35:22
Like, like, we were just, we were just negotiating time on the clock. Oh. Like, should I just make like three aggressive moves and like clock him real quick, and then like- And then the real one is the next game?
35:31
Yeah, the real one's the next game. Like, just go checkmate- So, so tank-... like on move five when it's not even close... tank the first game, and then play the real one after it. Yeah, yeah.
35:38
Y- y- Kinda wanna get in his head a little bit, you know? He's, he's not agreeing to any of this.
35:41
He's gonna be like- I th- I thought we were never gonna discuss it again until he just brought it up- Well, no, he wants to-... on his way out... he totally wants to play. Totally wants to play.
35:47
For 100 to 1, he wants to play. Yeah. Uh, let's recap all the best bets of the day, courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
35:54
Uh, I still got my, uh, after the Giants win yesterday at plus seven and a half, pshew, wish I'd taken the money line after that. Uh, Colts minus five and a half on Sunday.
36:02
Mike McDonald, Coach of the Year at nine to one, and man, is that the worst of the number now on Mike McDonald. I can get him for double or more. Dude, I'm so confused about that.
36:11
I, I thought we had the wrong graphic when, uh, when Aaron Schatz was on and we threw those up. Well, I mean- Market's moving...
36:16
if, if the, if the Seahawks lose, the Seahawks would fall to three and three, so that wouldn't be a good thing, so I get it in that respect. Yep. On the other hand, if you're four and two with that, with that outfit,
36:27
should he really be 18 to 1 or worse? I added. I'm also on the Tigers tonight. Tarik Skubal, minus 117 is the number I got on the Tigers and Skubal against the Mariners. Wow. Game five, the decider at Seattle tonight.
36:43
Skubal minus 117. Skubal, who, uh, famously lost game two to these Mariners, O and three lifetime against the Mariners, but minus 117, too good for me to pass up. What do you got?
36:54
Man, that has really been, like, all Seattle money, huh? All Seattle money. Wow. Um, all right, I got some Friday fun baseball. Let's go.
37:01
Tigers-Mariners over eight and a half at plus 290, and then we're going yes o- yes on the first run. So am I. First inning. I have- Plus 175... I, I have not added it yet, but I will be there too.
37:10
Plus, I saw plus 155, plus 150 to plus 155 at most of the national shops. We got a couple here in town that are plus 175 on the Year fee. Wow. Uh, NFL for the week for me, Cowboys-Panthers over 48 and a half.
37:22
Steelers, minus four and a half. Patriots, minus two and a half. Bucs, a couple different types, up to two and a half. Lions plus one and a half. Seahawks-Lions six-point teaser. Lions-Seahawks-Rams six-point teaser.
37:36
Uh, as you and Steve were discussing, a lot of CLV. Can't wait to get the, uh, go to the store and get something for that.
37:41
Dude, I can't tell you how many times during that Giants game, namely, like, when the Eagles took their 17 to 13 lead, I'm like, "Yep, I'm gonna lose this one s- you know, in horrific fashion as well." It's wild, dude.
37:51
Yeah. It's wild. Um, and then I added a McDonald just now. 23 to one to win Coach of the Year. That's right here at Circa behind us. Brought this up yesterday, but I did play the Steelers to win the North.
38:01
This is definitely set up and bet in a way, Gil, that I plan on likely coming back with a Ravens bet here in a couple weeks.
38:09
Um, you've got the Steelers with the Browns and the Bengals over the next two weeks, but, uh, r- Ravens face the Rams this week and then are on bye.
38:16
So I'm planning on hopefully, hoping to get a nice number on the Ravens and come back. And then brought these up yesterday as well, but Hor- Hornets over 27 and a half wins, Hornets 30 plus wins at plus 130.
38:27
When you made the Michael McDonald bet, did you make it on your app or did you run down to the- App. I was gonna say. Kelly, like, if you look at the background, Kelly just sprinting down to the book.
38:35
I mi- I might have taken a, uh, three-minute stroll- [laughs]... uh, during the second Fezzik segment. Stevie Fezzik has, uh, South Florida-North Texas under 67. Is that game tonight? I believe that's tonight. Yep.
38:45
Uh, then he's on UDub. He got 10- Great number... minus 10 versus Rutgers. It's 11 and a half now. The great aggregator. "Hey, uh, Steve, did you, uh, do that independently of Dr. Rob or did you do that on your own?"
38:55
He goes, "Uh," [laughs] "Both." [laughs] Uh, tomorrow he's on Boise State.
39:03
Broncos minus 16 versus New Mexico, and he's laying, uh, he's laying the wood with Boise State, but he's taking the money line with Utah State over Hawaii. Utah State minus 115 on the money line.
39:13
Chris Felica came strong today with five college football plays. Oregon laying the seven versus Indiana, one of the big marquee match-ups of the weekend. Oregon minus seven versus Indiana.
39:23
He really likes the Ducks there. Kansas State plus one and a half against four and one TCU. Colorado plus three versus five and one Iowa State. Taking the dogs, the short dogs, in both of those.
39:34
And then he's taking the winless Oregon State Beavers plus three versus Wake. How about that? And then, uh, the other marquee match-up play he had, Mizzou, Missouri, "The Harvard of Boone County," says Ben Wilson.
39:47
Missouri plus three versus Bama. Aaron Schatz, in addition to all of his DVOA and awards talk, he managed to slip in a couple bets this week.
39:55
Cowboys minus three at the Panthers, and the Washington Commodores, three time Super Bowl champions, minus four and a half versus the Bears. It's funny how I don't- Those Monday-nighters are gonna be fun. Oh, yeah, man.
40:06
A lot of Washington, pro and, and college. And then Do- the great Dr. Bob, who's eight and one on the year ATS on the show in college football, looking to go nine and one.
40:14
He is on UDub laying the f- 11 against Rutgers, uh, in the revenge spot after the illegal participation game last year, which Bob has totally purged from his system. Totally over it. Yeah. Uh, he's taking UDub.
40:27
But he's not doing it just because of that. He's doing it based on his numbers, based on his math model. He doesn't, uh, react emotionally. It's all brought to you by GBank, the official bank of VSiN.
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41:04
Kelly Bidlea, you were not on the Megapod this week, but, uh, I'm gonna ask you the, uh, final two questions of the Megapod and get your answers to these two questions, okay? Uh, all right. Are you down to do this?
41:13
Always. I was gonna say, you have to say yes. Um- You're like, "Nah, I'm good." Nah, I'm good. I'd rather not. Ooh, uh, real quick, a couple injury updates for NFL. I just saw this one pop up.
41:22
Ja'Marr Chase with an illness, questionable. And then, uh, Kyler Murray is expect- will practice today. So that makes a little bit more sense. Yeah.
41:32
After he came back in that game and then he was missed the last two days with that same foot injury. Don't remind me. All right, fire away. What do you got?
41:38
He got, he got hit in the face with a football and his leg got hurt. Right. [laughs] And he didn't go after the ball. Watching that replay, man.
41:44
[sighs] Uh, we already have the answer to this question, or at least one of the answers, which is, which of the big favorites is the most li- likely to lose outright?
41:51
And the correct answer would've already been the Philadelphia Eagles. Yes. But let's throw that game to the side since it's done. Of the remaining big favorites, who is the most likely to lose outright?
42:02
Denver, seven and a half point favorites, um, I'm just talking about outright now. Mm-hmm. Though in London Town at Tottenham's, uh, Hotspur Stadium against the Jetropolitans.
42:11
Colts, seven-point favorites hosting the Cardinals. Uh, let's see here. Should I add Pittsburgh to this list? Pittsburgh, six-point favorites in some spots, hosting the Browns. Um, maybe I tipped the scales there.
42:25
Rams, seven and a half point favorites on the road against the Ravens. And of course, the Packers, the big one, 14-point favorites hosting the Cincinnati Bungles.
42:34
Which of the big favorites that remain is the most likely to lose outright in your opinion? The Indianapolis Colts. Ooh. Indianapolis Colts. Wouldn't it just be like the Cardinals to do that to us? Yes, it would.
42:46
It would very much be those, so yeah. I will hate your franchise so much if you do that. Uh, I said, you know what I said? I said the Packers.
42:55
I could, I just, I envision a scenario where Joe Flacco was like, "Oh, I've got great receivers. Let me get them the ball." Yeah. I was having the conversation yesterday with someone.
43:05
I still think it's weird and I still think it's weird that we, we haven't heard much of this talk this week of just why are we rush- I don't get the rush of Flacco. Like, I get the, that you need a quarterback.
43:14
We must get him in the ballgame. Right, right. Like, we, we need to trade for him and he needs to play immediately. How are you feeling if you're Jake Browning right now? You're like, "Oh, boy."
43:21
Like I'm not seeing a football field for a while. Yeah, this was- Actually just angry. I mean, this, this, I feel like I can connect to Jake Browning very well. I feel like I can put myself in his shoes. Huh.
43:30
I had the greatest job on the planet, Gil. I was backing up Joe Burrow. There was no expectations of me.
43:36
I was fine running out to practice every day and get my paycheck, and now I've gotta be exposed by actually playing in real NFL games. Who are you backing up here? Uh, uh, poor, uh, Browning.
43:46
No, I'm saying well, who, but who are you backing up here that you relate to him so much? Joe Burrow. No, no, no. No, but- Browning, Browning No, no- I can put myself in his shoes.
43:53
No, I know, but who are you backing up here that you relate so much with? Oh, no, no, nobody. Nobody. [laughs] I'm just saying I could- I was gonna ask that... I, I feel like I would've felt that way if I was Browning.
44:02
Okay. I was gonna ask that five different ways. I had a great job. Why was I shoved into this? No, no, Kelly, what I mean is, all right, last question.
44:07
You have to bet with- Or be like, if you were out for three weeks and I had to do this by myself. I had a great role over here. No, no. Now it got a lot tougher. [laughs] I got a lot tougher.
44:14
There's a lot more eyeballs on it. Just don't throw interceptions. You'll be fine. Uh, last question. You ha- we live in a bizarro world. You had to bet every single game in the NFL schedule on its side- Yep...
44:23
but you get one free pass. What's the game you want no part of? That would be the Los Angeles Chargers at the Miami Dolphins. Yeah. That's a good one. That's a very good one. Last stand for the Miami Dolphins.
44:34
I, I said Commanders, Commodores. I, I think that line is right where it should be. I don't know what I want. Yeah, no, it's, it's up there for me, too. We've done all we can do. John Hanson awaits.
44:43
Prop Points next from VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
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A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
