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Oct 11, 2024
A Numbers Game | October 11, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | October 11, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside as well.
0:20
Um, this hour, Chris Fallica, The Bear from Fox Sports, Steve Fezzik, only back-to-back, uh, winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day, will join us to talk NFL, and Dr.
0:30
Bob, the pioneer, talking college football on a football Friday. It don't get no better than this, I believe the old, the old Old Milwaukee beer commercials used to say. First, we get tweets at Beating The Book.
0:40
Always appreciate the feedback. Judd O'Connor, "You can tell Mike McDonald is a new coach based on that time management at the end of the first half.
0:48
You wanna hammer in Walker, give yourself enough time to run it on the goal line." Um, I don't know if I, I don't know if I saw it that way at the end.
0:56
They got it to the two, there was s- eh, I mean, they got it down there as quickly as they could, I suppose. Um, but I don't know if that was a Mike McDonald issue, for me anyway. Maybe I saw it wrong.
1:06
Hoops by Hoots, "I was watching the WNBA game. There were three missed calls in regulation/OT that would have most certainly have been overturned with replay.
1:15
WNBA changed the rules this year that nothing under two minutes is auto-reviewed and must be challenged, but didn't give the teams any challenges."
1:23
Uh, of course, the big one was the, before the Breanna Stewart free throw attempts, uh, the ball actually went off her foot on the previous possession, and it went to a jump ball instead of giving the ball to the Lynx.
1:36
That was the biggest, uh, sort of one of the bunch. But, uh, yeah, that, that marred that game for sure. Oh, it's look, it's Bobby Knuckles, everybody.
1:43
"I think there's a segment there, uh, spite bets of the week, the bets you make a few drinks in and after the game has not gone your way. Open to sponsorships."
1:51
[laughs] Yes, that's very, that would be a very responsible segment of us. Um, Xavier82 says, uh, "Kelly Bidlin yells, 'Just give me my steak!'"
1:58
Talking about his, uh, steak experience last night with all the bells and whistles. Uh, this is from, uh, Rhodes, "14 to 1 Jaguars to come back for the South. They're really only chasing the Texans."
2:10
There are crazier bets, I will say that for sure. Uh, and then, uh, [laughs] a few about Jason. Uh, Shades of Mako, "Who rocks more chest hair out, Kelly or Jason?"
2:20
Uh, Kelly that one time more out, but Jason's is darker, so it's more unsettling. You know what I mean? Uh, JasonH11, "For some reason, I kept looking over my shoulder for the cops during that interview."
2:31
And Spence says, [laughs] "Jason looked like an extra from Boogie Nights in today's appearance." I always appreciate the feedback, uh, on all this. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is The Bear. He's at Fox Sports.
2:41
He has his own podcast called The Bear Bets Pods, which he does in college and pro football, and he has, uh, our buddy Will Hill on there as well, Sammy P, Jeff Schwartz, part of that podcast crew.
2:51
And of course, he's part of Big Noon Saturdays at Fox for college football. It's Christopher Fallica, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Chris?
3:00
Yeah, I've, I've, I've had better, better nights and, and better mornings. Uh-oh. I lost a lot ear- lost a lot of earning power last night with the, uh, Royals going down to the Yankees and then, uh, the WNBA game.
3:11
I got a lot of, uh, cross-sport futures that had the Liberty and the Aces, and then obviously they played in the semifinal. And then for the Liberty to give that game away the way they did last...
3:21
They were up 19 in the first half, and then like, then what, it was a 15-point lead late in the, uh, in the game. And to, and to lose that game i- is, is really, uh, disheartening for me. So, uh, hopefully, um,
3:34
hopefully we'll, uh, we'll, we'll bounce back this weekend in college football and- I was gonna say, today is a new day...
3:39
bounce back, and if Liberty can bounce back, maybe win one, uh, win one in Minnesota and win this thing in five. What did you- By the way, all, all I have heard from like for the previous segment- Yes...
3:47
was that Kelly had a $1,000 steak for dinner last night? Did he say a thousand? [laughs] I missed the $1,000 part.
3:54
Yeah, he just, he the, he went to this restaurant right at Fountain Bleu where it's not, they don't just give you a steak. There's like all these bells and whistles. There's like music, and it's loud, and you know.
4:03
Kelly's getting older, and he's, the, the music makes him crazy a little bit. He wants it turned down. I like it. Yeah. Uh, by the way, what did you have the Royals in? Did you have them in s- in the series?
4:11
I had the Roy- I had the Royals at 40 to 1 to win the AL. Oh, I see. Uh, four- at 49 to 1, and then I had them wheeled in World Series match-ups with the, with the teams, w- w- with everybody except, uh, w- with the, uh,
4:28
w- well, the, the, all the teams that are left, I should say. So- Oh, okay... the, the Ro- Royal- Royals-Padres World Series would've been a, a, a well into six-figure score for me. But, uh- The Royals-...
4:36
not gonna happen now... the, on paper, like I said, that w- that team was pretty, you know, like the starting pitching was good.
4:43
The lineup, at least the front part of the lineup, was really reliable until Bobby Witt- Yeah... went 2 for 17, right? Yep.
4:49
Um, and it just, and then the, the bullpen got good at the end of the season, but wasn't really that good all year. Um, so it just didn't work out.
4:56
They went out with a whimper and- Line lineup, lineup really, really great. Yeah, give the, give, give Cole the credit last night. He, he dealt last night. He's been, he's been great for the Yankees. Oh.
5:04
Gerrit Cole was fantastic, and the bullpen has been fantastic, and the Yank- Yankees on the cusp of a World Series. Gotta get by their, uh, championship series opponent, of course.
5:13
All right, uh, let us begin with college football, sir. What do you like best? Th- this was a, a really difficult week for me. There wasn't a ton that, uh, stuck out to me.
5:26
I did wind up taking Ohio State minus three, and the, the old favorite and under in both games. I have Ohio State minus three and under 54, uh, in, in the game at Austin.
5:38
Uh, the, the reports out there that, uh, Birch, O- Oregon's one of their b- better, if not their best defensive end, uh, their best pass rusher, uh, may be out, uh, which obviously would hinder their, uh, their ability to slow down Ohio State.
5:52
But, but I still think Ohio State with the running game going, uh, Chip Kelly primarily, like Jeremiah Smith has been the talk of the Ohio State offense, but they are still a run-based offense.
6:02
I still think you're gonna see A ton of Judkins, a ton of Henderson, and then obviously Will Howard will connect with Ibuka and Smith when he needs to. I still think the Oregon defense is pretty good.
6:14
So I think it's a lower scoring type game because I think the biggest edge in this game goes to the Ohio State defense versus the Oregon offense.
6:21
I think with Downs and the secondary of Ohio State, I think they're going to make life very, very miserable for Dylan Gabriel.
6:30
So I did lay the three with Ohio State, and I did take under 54 in that game at odds, and that was where I landed there. And then a lot of the other stuff has moved. I grabbed USC team total under 22.5.
6:47
This line's been weird, too. This line's been coming down quite a bit in this game where Penn State's now dropped, I think, to like a 3.5, 4.3.
6:55
But I don't trust Penn State to lay points in this game because I still have concerns about their offense and who knows about the health of Nick Singleton who didn't play last week.
7:04
But I think that USC offensive line is still really bad. I think the Penn State defensive front, I think they're seventh in the country in success rate on defense.
7:13
I think the Penn State defense will make life kind of tough. And look, this is an SC offense that struggled on the road in Michigan, that struggled even more so on the road last week at Minnesota.
7:22
I like the under here, an under 22.5 team total for USC. And I, excuse me. And I'm mad at myself I didn't get on it earlier in the week, but I did wind up taking Colorado on the money line against Kansas State.
7:37
Again, this number has come down quite a bit. It looks like it's one-way action on this game with the number I'm getting now certainly isn't as good as it was earlier in the week.
7:46
But just in looking at this matchup, I just came back to, A, how poor Kansas State's defense has been on the road. They've given up a ton of points at BYU.
7:58
I know a lot of them came in a flurry in like a cluster type situation. Tulane scored a bunch of points on them.
8:04
And now you're going against Colorado offense with two best offensive players in the conference, maybe two of the best offensive players in the country.
8:11
And the way Colorado's defense stood up to the UCF running game a couple of weeks back with Jefferson and their backs, it's kind of the same thing they're going to see from Kansas State.
8:22
Maybe the offensive line is a little bit better. But I think Colorado money line was a play as well for me. So I landed there. I wound up laying the points with Texas in this game, minus 14.
8:33
I think a lot of people are thinking rivalry game, eight of the last 10 times with a double-digit spread that the dog has covered or whatever it is. But I just don't see it with Oklahoma.
8:44
Like you're looking at an offense that is 117th in EPA, powerful, worst 13 plays at 20 yards, 26% on third down. All, basically all their wide receivers are hurt and not going to play.
8:57
This is a Texas defense that has been great this year. I know it was cliche for the SEC undefeated teams to lose last week, but I don't think it happens here.
9:06
I think Texas winds up winning this game, pulling away late in the second half. It gets an OU defense, I think, that'll play well. And then one little bit of, a word of warning for everybody out there. I like it.
9:17
And this maybe even applies to you a little bit. Everybody loves Pitt this week. Every, Cal, there's no way they're going to come back and bounce back after
9:28
blowing that game to Miami late in the wee hours of the morning Saturday. Pitt's minus three. The world is on Pitt. And the line hasn't budged. Like that would concern me.
9:38
Now, I'm not saying that means play Cal, but everyone who thinks they have tomorrow's newspaper and just assumes that Pitt's going to roll in this game, I'd be a little bit careful there. You're correct. I am on Pitt.
9:50
I have a follow-up question. Are you aware of who plays quarterback for Pitt? I'm just curious. Are you familiar with- Yes, I am. Okay. Leaflet poster child, Eli Holton. Just curious. Okay, a couple follow-up questions.
10:02
Give me the team in college football right now in your opinion.
10:04
I'm not talking about the Ohio States or the Alabamas, Georgias, Texases, or Oregons, but give me a team right below that that you think is most poised to make noise in a playoff that could actually advance.
10:19
I will say Texas A&M. Ooh. Because I think defensively, they're really good up front and their offense has kind of evolved. I mean, Wigman was out with the injury and the way he played last week against Missouri.
10:34
I mean, I know I didn't want to be present in the moment, but they were great last week against a Missouri team that we all kind of thought might have been a little bit overrated.
10:41
But A&M, because of the combination of what they have on defense and now if Wigman can play that way, I think they will be a dangerous team in the playoffs. I think they're going to get there with schedule.
10:50
If you had a vote for Heisman and the Heisman was being voted on right now, who would be your winner? Travis Hunter. I think he is the best player. Travis Hunter. I think he is the best player in the country.
10:59
What he's 130-something snaps a game, impact player on offense, impact player on defense. I think he is the best player in the country. Would you bet him at current odds? No. No.
11:11
And I say that because I have him bet early in the year at six to one. Okay. I wouldn't bet him at current odds. No. Brando, Felika bet on the way out in any sport? What do you got? Packers minus five Sunday.
11:25
I think the Cardinals are kind of this week in, week out type team.
11:29
I think last week's game in San Francisco was more about the Niners not having a kicker and the Cardinals just kind of being professionals and being like, "We gave up 40-something points the previous week, so we're going to win a man out this week and play better."
11:41
So I think Packers are pretty good. Packers minus five against the Cardinals. Thank you, sir. Chris Felika, everybody. You're welcome.
11:47
Coming back with Steve Fezzik right here on a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network. Game on VSiN, the sports betting network Looking for some action? Our friends at First Bet have you covered.
12:05
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12:18
Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200. Head to firstbet.com today. We get tweets that beat in the book. Just wanna read a couple here.
12:28
This is from, uh, from CranePool, who, uh, says, uh, "I was waiting for a wedding ceremony to begin in church. I took out my phone to make a bet. My wife said in horror, 'What are you doing?'
12:39
I told her, 'It's okay, I'm betting on Notre Dame.'" There you go. [laughs] Um, that is, by the way, that's a riff on, uh, what I was asking Jason about.
12:46
Jason is, uh, going to, uh, go to synagogue tonight, and I asked him if he was going to, uh, follow the Dodgers-Padres game. He said he would, he, he would if he could, but it's a, uh, it's a cell vortex.
12:56
And Ryan Hyatt, big hour coming up on, uh, ANG with, uh, Felika Fezzik and Dr. Bob. He said, "Question, will Dr. Bob work blue today, or is he saving that for his second set after midnight tonight?"
13:07
What he's referring to is that Dr. Bob, Felika did it once, and Dr. Bob has done it twice. They've cursed on air.
13:14
The only person in our Friday football, uh, hour number two not to curse is the only two-time champion, uh, back-to-back of the Hilton Super Contest. It's Steve Fezzik, everybody. He keeps it clean.
13:24
You know, the Reds announcer obviously ruined his career by getting caught on a hot mic. He did. And my best advice to someone, obviously, you don't wanna get c- caught on a hot mic, but just never say something...
13:35
Assume you're always on air, and then those bad habits or whatever inappropriate thoughts you may have will never pontificate themselves, right? Oh, interesting.
13:45
You were talking to me about this the other, you were texting about this the other day, and my response to you was I, I curse like a sailor all day long.
13:50
[laughs] But never once on the show, 'cause I'm able to com- compartmentalize the two things. By the way, base, I, I thought you might curse with base winner on the Dodgers on, on- He is...
13:57
an alternative bet, first five. Yes. I find his lack of faith in the Padres disturbing.
14:04
Well, he did say that he would be a proponent of the first five Dodgers, and then them to gack it with their bullpen and the Padres to actually win. That's a live wager. Let's, let's set our alarms.
14:15
Well, that's a live wager. It's also, though, as he has pointed out with the White Sox this year, right? The Chicago White Sox, who were historically bad. By the way, they ended up losing 121 games exactly, right?
14:25
Breaking the record of 120. Ooh, CranePool's amazing Mets- Yeah... like, are, feel bad. They, they... Are they not, are, are they gonna put... Do they pop champagne if those guys are still alive, like the Dolphins?
14:34
Like, "We don't have the record anymore," right? Oh, that's a good point. Yes. I, uh, yeah. Um, we have a, we have a listener who's a, who's an employee of the White Sox. I won't say his name, 'cause he won't wanna know.
14:43
But he, he ca- he comes by, and he just tells us about it. Um, can't be a, can't be a pleasant experience. For 162 games, to lose 121. That's almost impossible, by the way. You have to, everything has to go against you.
14:57
Or you have to play against the grade A of the Cincinnati Reds- I saw your tweet... and then they'd all lose. I saw your tweet earlier. 120, yes. [laughs] Um, yes, so we appreciate that you don't curse.
15:06
I also appreciate that you come in here every week, and, uh, we didn't really plan this, but what has become a staple of your segments is you give us a look-ahead line that you like to exploit, and today is no different.
15:16
Let's do it right now. Yeah. So we're gonna do the Right Angle Sports fantastic group. We're gonna do a setup, and then we're gonna go, all right? [laughs] Don't bet this until I say go.
15:26
And it's possible that- 'Cause this could be a ruse, this whole thing? It, it could be. It could be, could be, could be, 'cause obviously if anyone who hasn't followed Right Angle Sports, they, they, they say set up.
15:33
So in set up Kansas State, and they either say go, they say cancel- Yeah... or they say every now and then opposite, okay? Was that we used to do this on the show with Michael Craig from Right Angle Sports.
15:43
We never did opposite, though. It was either, it was either it's a bet or a cancel. Yes, but opposite's in play. Opposite can happen. Okay. Okay.
15:51
All right, so let's- So you could be wasting our time the next two minutes. We... Here we go. Yeah. Possibly. Okay. It could be a cancel. Week seven. Yeah. Sunday Night Football, New York Jets under new management.
16:03
Set up Jets, this is lines at DraftKings, set up Jets plus one at Pittsburgh. So set it up, Jets plus one at Pittsburgh. Set it up, and in three, two, one, opposite. Opposite.
16:17
We are betting the Steelers- [laughs] Oh, man... minus one. [laughs] Go to your sports book at DraftKings and lay the minus one. Who are the Jets? Think about what's going, the Jets have been going through.
16:28
They've just been on some other continent, all right? Some- somewhere on the flight back, their coach got fired, apparently.
16:36
Um, now they have an all-in game for the divisional lead on Monday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills, and then they gotta go to Pittsburgh Sunday, and that's when that hits the you know what.
16:47
Oh, my God, did that just happen? Go ahead. [laughs] After we did the whole thing, and this guy acted like he doesn't do this of- okay. Wow. Okay, continue. I'm sorry. This guy. I just, I just saw Airplane! the movie.
17:01
[laughs] This guy. And I'm thinking about... All right, there might not be a second segment if this continues. This, this foot- this Football Friday thing. Pittsburgh minus one is the bet. Week seven.
17:09
Not this week, week seven. Okay. Week seven at Acca Sharing that you got the Steelers, uh, and it is, by the way, they're still minus one, laying the point at- Or you can lay the minus 118 on the money line.
17:21
They're almost equivalent. The mi- Almost equivalent... I think the minus one is, like, decimal points better, minus 110. Okay.
17:27
Uh, minus one, minus 110, just slightly better than the minus 118 money line on the Steelers.
17:33
Um, by the way, just one correction, because I, I know you were saying it flippantly, but, uh, Robert Saleh did get back on the flight, right? [laughs] He did, he did make it to, back to the US.
17:43
He went to work all day Monday- Mm... as if to prepare for the Monday night game against the Jet, against the Bills, pardon me.
17:50
He came back into work Tuesday morning, got into his office, and that is when the owner, Woody Johnson, uh, went into his office and told him, uh, "You're done."
18:00
Apparently with a full SWAT team to escort him out [laughs] of the- They escorted him out of the building You know, I gotta say this is w- a, a huge mistake that companies make because they're worried about someone stealing the secret files or whatever and, you know, cleaning out their desk.
18:14
But, um, if someone's worked at your organization and given them the best, give them the digni- dignity- Yeah... to be able to walk out and say goodbye to coworkers.
18:23
And, uh, to be walked out by security, I just think it's a classless move, and many organizations and HR departments do that, but it's just wrong.
18:31
And the reason I say that is that for years and years my father was a top executive, and then the, the, the, ultimately it didn't work out, and they actually walked him out.
18:40
And, and- Has that ever happened to you before? It's never happened to me.
18:43
Uh, when I was in San Francisco, we were, we were owned, when I worked at KMEL, KMEL jams, 106 KMEL jams, by the way, uh, we were owned by a mom and pop, and this is when it deregulated, right? Mm-hmm.
18:53
In the, in the '90s. And so we were owned by, I wanna say AMFM, and then it went to Chancellor, and then it went to Clear Channel.
19:00
But so we were accumulating, not we, but the company that we were kept getting bought by, you know, inherently would have more and more stations under their umbrella.
19:08
And so at one point I went from KMEL to this other station, Kiss, and in, in, like within three months they knew, "Yeah, go, you should go back to KMEL." Uh-huh.
19:18
But they, but they told me at Kiss, "Yeah, you're done here." And I was like, "Is this where you walk me out of the building?" And they almost sheepishly were like, "No, you can walk out on your own."
19:28
But it was like that was the moment where they were going to, but I was like, "Are you real- Like, is this really g- " They're like, "No, you're-" And you felt better about- Well, they had enough-...
19:36
about the, the departure, right? It was different- I mean, a little better... 'cause they knew I was g- they probably knew I, they were gonna take me back at the, at, back at KMEL anyway.
19:43
But there was a moment there where I think they probably considered it. Mm-hmm. And then when I kinda called them on it, they were like, "You know, what are we doing here?" Like, "Yeah, just walk out on your own."
19:52
But you're right, there is a... I can, I can imagine, especially in the case of Robert Saleh, the, I mean, the d- you're right, it's a dignity thing, right?
20:00
Where it's like, really, let the, let the guy walk out on his own. Exactly. What is he gonna do, trash the place? Right. So yeah.
20:05
Um, but yeah, he actually went to work on Monday, and then Tuesday they're like, "Get out of here." [laughs] It's just really amazing.
20:12
Um, yeah, and that also brings up the point of if you, you know, what didn't you like about him after five weeks that you couldn't have decided before the season started? Clearly something- Yeah...
20:21
happened in London with the, apparently there's, the owner has lots of connections in London. Maybe there was a meeting that went bad with the, the boosters or [laughs] the like.
20:30
Well, there's all kinds of theories, right? From Aaron Rodgers to other things, which I won't get into here. But, um, anyway, the Jets are hardly the most team turmoil in the NFL.
20:39
It's the Cleveland Browns, I think who take that mantle. Yeah.
20:43
Um, in the Steve Fezzik Power Rankings, 'cause I know you have these things, what would be the most surprising thing to the average listener right now that you have versus sort of market conventional wisdom?
20:56
You know, it's a great question because, and I'm sorry I don't have the fellow there, but they aggregate, like, eight different people's power ratings, and Rufus, um, Massey, um, ratings are there, mine are there, and they said- Who, who does that?
21:07
Um, I th- I- You can't remember. I can't remember. Oh, okay. Yeah, but I retweeted it. Okay. So, so if, if people go to @FezzikSports and they'll, they'll look at my tweets. And so what's interesting is I am
21:17
n- shocker, as the great aggregator- You are the great aggregator... I, I mean, I'm, I listen to everybody, all right? And so I'm not on an island very often at all.
21:26
Like, like I don't, like, have, like, huge opinions, like, Kansas City's my number one team, um, then, then Detroit, Baltimore, uh, San Francisco. Actually, San Francisco will become number two after last night.
21:38
Then Minnesota, Buffalo, Philly.
21:40
I would say I'm higher in the Philly than, than right now than the market because, like, the thing about Philly, here's a case where both wide receivers are injured, Lane Johnson gets injured, they've been scuffling, coach has been called out, but they got all 11 guys healthy now on offense.
21:54
And the funny thing is now they're playing Cleveland. So my total square ball play of the week is I, like, oh, Philly's gonna kill them. I mean, let's do, I mean, like, let's tease Philly now before it goes to 10. Right.
22:03
And we can't tease through the long numbers.
22:06
So that would be, like, my number one bet is to get at some Eagles teasers w- with the Jaguars in London who, who've always played well in London or with the Jets on Monday Night Football.
22:14
Where do you have the, uh, three-time Super Bowl champion Washington Taco Holders? Where do you have that? Uh, Washington's my number 10 team right now. I like it. They're in the- There you go... into the top 10.
22:22
Yeah, for us too. It's the first time ever I've had them in the top 10. Washington's a fascinating team because I talk about, like, how much do I weigh priors, and Washington's anchor was just incorrect.
22:31
We didn't know- We didn't know... how good their quarterback was. We didn't know. Adjust fast. The man shows up for work at 4:00 AM, does his film, does his lifting. Like James- Tom Cruise in The Firm.
22:41
[laughs] Exactly like Tom Cruise in The Firm, Stevie. That's exactly right. More with Fezzik on the other side right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:41
Gil Alexander, uh, Fezzik, uh, standing by. Before that, though, tweets. We get 'em. Thank you s- uh, thank you to all of you for submitting, uh, your little comments. [laughs] This from, let's see, from Shades of Mako.
23:54
Shades of Mako. Didn't we just read a Shades of Mako? Well, we get two today, Shades of Mako. "From all the times that you've called out the cursing on ANG, it's actually gone right over my head.
24:02
I guess I curse too much to notice." SoCal Fantasy. Oh, this is a good question. I'm gonna save that for the last one. Hold on. Uh, Rhodes. What was the stat about rookie quarterbacks in England?
24:13
I believe they're 0 and 6, right? Is that- Yes. Yes. Yeah, yes. 0 and 6, yeah.
24:16
And, and the against the spread margin is tremendous, so it's not just a, like a case where they've lost by like [laughs] a couple points on a last second field goal.
24:24
I mean, it's like a touchdown a game that they've underperformed. I think that goes all the way back to Minshew failing in London.
24:30
And we have a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams this week in, in London, England, uh, to that point, against the Jag-wires. Um, but- Jaguars... yeah, Jaguars. Jaguars. Uh, let's see here.
24:41
Oh, uh, Bobby Knuckles says, "The Fezzik campaign runs hot with the subtle Darth Vader quote regarding Borchardt's lack of faith in the Padres. A+." Here's a question.
24:49
Chris Heath, he's seeing a minus one and a half on the Steelers on the look-ahead game that you were talking about, um, that was between the Steelers and the Jets. He's seeing a one and a half at BetOnline.
25:00
Is that not a bet? And then we have Kelly letting us know that at FanDuel it's a minus one and a half, and the money line is minus 118.
25:07
Now, you had previously told us that the minus one, minus 110, the minus one, minus 110, is slightly better than the minus 118. I assume it changes here? Yes.
25:17
So by the way, if you only have access to a minus one and a half, that's fine. You can lay it up to minus one and a half. However, the minus 118 is superior and somewhat obvious, because think about it, if you...
25:27
If someone, a sportsbook let you buy a half point at minus one half, minus 110, and you could go to minus one, minus 114, well, that's cheap, four cents, absolutely.
25:36
And then they said, "Hey, you can buy another half point for four cents more and get it minus a half, minus, uh, the 118." All right, I'll do that as well. Um, I probably wouldn't buy the next half point.
25:47
[laughs] On to the, this is the Joe Peta, you know, "They could tie. They could tie." They could tie. He's, he's... I- I mean, it's possible. Um, by the way, if, if this is confusing at all, warning, danger, math. Math.
25:57
Um, go over to Unabated, Captain Jack, Rufus Peabody.
26:01
These guys are awesome, and you could just punch in two bets, and they, they will spit out which one is indeed superior, all things being equal, based upon their database.
26:10
Um, JasonH11, "My virgin ears can't take all of this foul language. What the blank is wrong with you [laughs] guys?"
26:17
[laughs] Uh, and then, uh, Russell Ambrose says, "The last hour needs to c- needs to be called Blankin' Football Friday." [laughs] You're telling me.
26:24
Now, here's a question, and this is a good follow-up to, you were kind enough to come here during the preseason, and you had really strong thoughts about the new kickoff rule.
26:32
You were like, "The average field position, starting field position will be the 27-point-whatever yard line." You were, like, all about the point whatever.
26:39
Uh, SoCal Fantasy says, "Has there been enough data now to check the numbers on your preseason theory of offensive starting position with the new rules?" Yeah, so I was wrong. I was wrong, but I was right. Wow.
26:50
Ladies and gentlemen, can you rack that? As, as Rome used to say, "Rack that." Just have s- uh, Fezzik on a loop saying, "I was wrong." You need to adjust, all right?
26:58
And like, the over-under, like last night, the number of, of touchba- how many touchbacks are there gonna be? And it's three and a half. All right? Or no, I'm sorry. There's gonna be three and a half returns.
27:05
The, the touchbacks are favored. There was supposed to be, like, seven touchbacks. So what's going on? Why was Fezzik wrong?
27:11
What I said was that teams are gonna figure out that the optimal kickoff is that this ugly, corkscrewing, hard-to-catch ball that's gonna land right around the baseline, similar to when I'm playing Gilley at tennis, and he...
27:21
And I'm, I'm sneaking in, 'cause I'm slow, and I don't want him to drop shot me, and hits a ball that's, looks like it's gonna be in, but I can't be sure, and it might be out. And should I hit it?
27:29
And like, oh, crap, and it hits off the frame and dribbles sideways- [laughs]... and Gil wins 21 to eight. And it's very hard. They deal with the kickoff that's gonna be right around the goal line.
27:38
Now, what has happened is that famously a couple kickers have gotten hurt on returns. Yeah. And teams are like, "It's not worth it.
27:45
If the other team's gonna get it on around the 28 anyways, even with the perfect kick, let's just kick it out of the end zone, not get anyone hurt, and we'll give up the two yards."
27:53
Now, the smart teams are going ahead and doing the optimal kickoffs in close games at the very end of the game, and so we are seeing that occasion- on occasion. They'll fix this.
28:02
Next year, the rule will be it'll come out to the 35. Then they'll kick to the two-yard line, and then the average- Yes... field position will be the 28 and a half.
28:09
This is what I said all off-season to you, Steve, is that they ma- they make the touchback to the 35. That will change behavior. Uh, by the way, let's give a shout-out.
28:16
Uh, the guy who, uh, aggregates all the power rankings, Sam Hoppen. Yes. Sam Hoppen. Yeah, just a fantastic job- Yes... and he color codes them- He does...
28:25
on who, on who, and you can see who, like, who's on an island and like... And, and I think, and, and, and the Massey-Peabody ratings, um, like, they're on Easter Island.
28:34
[laughs] They're, they're, they're, I mean, they're by themselves in the Pacific Ocean compared to the other seven guys. Yes. Yeah, Sam Hoppen, H-O-P-P-E-N, for those- Thank you... who are interested in.
28:42
Uh, real quick before you get to your football thoughts, uh, your bet this week, you s- you wanted to mention something about weight loss? Is that what you wanted to mention? Yes. E- everybody's different. Yeah.
28:49
And I know you've been losing weight. Yes. You're looking good. Let me, let's start with you. Yes. What, how you doing it? I eat the same thing every day. The, the Wishnev. One...
28:57
That's exactly, it was inspired by Todd Wishnev. One bowl of Chipotle burrito bowl, double chicken. Nothing bad in there, right? Corn- Mm-hmm... mild salsa, maybe even a little sprinkle of cheese.
29:08
But that's it, on white rice. One bowl of that, and then two salads with Todd's low-cal wishbone salad dressing, which tastes great and is, like, 35 calories or whatever.
29:19
That's- You actually burn more calories digesting it than you absorb. And then every once in a while I'll play tennis, but my tennis partners are always hurt. Fezzik. I'm, I'm on the DL.
29:28
Curious, isn't it interesting how hurt I get when I start having bad results all of a sudden? Interesting. On the DL. But that's, that's how I do it.
29:34
So if, if I do the same thing every day like that and, and do it sensibly, then I will lose weight, and that's exactly what I'm doing. I have two methods.
29:41
I have the stop loss method where if I ever weigh myself and I'm, I see a number higher than 210- Yeah... I can't eat for 24 hours. Emergency partners meeting. [laughs] Food has been rescinded- Emer-...
29:53
until you get back below 210. I love that you have an emergency [laughs] partners meeting in your head.
29:57
The second thing would, and it seems more viable, if you hate diets and hate, like, having to do something every day, you only have to do this once a week. Once a week you'll lose 20 pounds. I guarantee it.
30:07
You need to skip lunch once a week and go work out instead. Oh, once a year you lose 20 pounds. Yes. Once a y- Once a y- you, you lose 20 pounds over the course of a year- Yeah... just doing this once.
30:16
And also, let me, if, if for those who haven't tried it When, if y- the first time you do this, come dinnertime, you will have the best tasting... You can do your Chipotle- Yeah... you can do Arby's.
30:27
That dinner's gonna taste as good as Michael's when you haven't eaten all day long and you've gone to the gym- So what do you-... for lunch... what do you, what do you do a- a- You don't eat lunch. You don't eat lunch.
30:35
And you go to the gym instead. So instead of consuming 800 calories, you burn 700. Yeah. So you basically are losing almost half a pound just in an hour and a half, basically.
30:44
Steve, Steve Fezzik, ladies and gentlemen, not only football, but life lessons, how to, uh, improve your health. I like that. All right, this week, you, you are doing something interesting this week.
30:53
Yeah, so I like three teasers. It's a good teaser week. So I love the Eagles. They're gonna close at 10, but they're still nine to nine and a half, so you can play them. You need to get a six-and-a-half-point teaser.
31:03
You need to get them down to minus two and a half. Yeah. And it's still available at some books. And I'll tease the Eagles, and I need dance partners with the Eagles. You need dance partners.
31:11
Eagles are g- Eagles are gonna be b- both teasers. I like the Jaguars.
31:14
I li- like the fact my power rating says the line's about right against the Bears, but the fact that they're so used to London, and I like the spot also.
31:21
So you're gon- the, the, the, the, they'll h- they got the routine down. And who wants to spend a week in London if they lose and they go to one of five and their season's donezo?
31:29
So I could argue this is like their game of the year. The Bears drunk and happy off, after clobbering, you know, the Red Rifle and company.
31:37
I could see them doing a little sightseeing, seeing Big Ben, going on the Eye or whatever it is, having some, some bangers. And I, s- so my handicap is I already like the Jaguars plus one and a half.
31:48
Let's tease them up with the Eagles. I'm also gonna tease the Eagles. Let's go to Monday night, must-win game for the divisional lead.
31:55
The Jets, um, should get the dead cat bounce after losing Sala, everyone all in, so we'll use the Jets in teasers also. Okay. But all anchored around the Eagles. I, the Eagles are my favorite.
32:06
What could possibly go wrong? What could possibly go wrong?
32:09
[laughs] Well, we had this discussion on the Megapod with Rufus yesterday, which is, again, we, we on the Megapod, we had a great year ye- last year with teasers, all three of us.
32:18
Um, we all suck this year, and it's because the long legs, particularly the favorite long legs, teasing from seven and a half and eight and a half down through the seven and three, and we know this by all the upsets, right?
32:29
A five-and-a-half-point dogs are great- They have a losing record... it's a- Not, not against the spread, straight up... straight up, right? Good luck winning, winning a teaser with two of these suckers.
32:37
So, yeah, so obviously your w- your wongers are all gonna lose. But you believe, 'cause I asked this of Dr.
32:42
Bob last week, and he cursed, he was so passionate about it, um, you believe this is all a short sample size, just outlier, this will all go back to normal. Absolutely. Yes.
32:53
And famously, like when, when we project like Survivor, by the way, I, I think my current projection is that we're gonna have one winner sometime between week 18 and 19. Oh, wow. Okay? Okay.
33:03
Um, but, like, I don't care that, that people are hitting below 50% with their Survivor picks. They're going to hit around 65% each and every week.
33:10
You know, that's, that, I mean, that, in a, in a year filled with parity, if there wasn't parity, it would be lower. Um, so the, the, the Survivor is tremendous, but I try not to overreact to small term data.
33:20
Look at scoring, was way down. Last week the average scoring was around 50 points. I think it's a buy sign. Oh, a bonus pick.
33:26
Let's play, um, the, the grand salami, Todd Wishnevyl like this one, over on the salami on Sunday, whatever it is, I haven't seen it up yet, scoring to be higher than expected on Sunday.
33:37
It was great until you took the shot at Wishnevyl. Other than that it was great. He said you suck at teasers. [laughs] Thank you, Steve Fezzik. Uh, Dr. Bob next on The Numbers Game.
33:45
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget at the top of the hour, Money Moves with Stormy Bonatony, of course, from noon to 2:00 Eastern.
34:01
Stormy will be with, uh, Jeff Schwartz today on the show. Jeff is always a staple on Fridays. Stormy and Jeff from noon to 2:00 on Money Moves, followed by Prop Points with John Hanson.
34:10
And then after Prop Points, Make It Rain with Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00 Eastern. Coming up on VSiN, the sports betting network, after a Numbers Game, Dr. Bob standing by. Before we get to Dr.
34:21
Bob, a review of our G Bank Best Bets of the Day from all of our guests. Uh, I will run through them. Mark Borcherd, base winner on the, uh, game tonight. He's got the Dolphins, uh, the Dolphins?
34:31
The Dodgers, pardon me, the Dodgers first five. That would really be something if the Dolphins won the first five. Dodgers first five against the Padres tonight in the decider, game five decider, in the, uh,
34:42
uh, DS between the Padres and the Dodgers tonight. Then he's got, uh, then Jason Weingarten came on. He gave the Dodgers full game on the money line, full game minus 134.
34:52
So, uh, two for the Dodgers, one first five and one money line. Then Felika came on. He's got a bunch of college football.
34:57
He's got Ohio State minus three against Oregon in the mark- in the marquee matchup of the weekend in college football. He's also got the under in that game, the under 54.
35:06
Uh, USC team total under 22 and a half in their game. Colorado, he's not a Colorado guy, but he took the Buffaloes on the money line.
35:14
He's also got Texas laying the two touchdowns, laying the 14 in the Red Rivel- Red River Rivalry, say that three times fast, against Oklahoma. So he's got Texas minus 14. And he threw in an NFL play.
35:24
He's got the Packers laying five this weekend as well. Then Steve Fezzik, just on with us moments ago, uh, took the Steelers in week seven, not this coming weekend, but in the lookahead.
35:35
He's got the Steelers minus one against the Jets at Acrisure and that in Pittsburgh. Then he's got the Eagles, uh, in all kinds of, uh, teasers with the Jaguars. He's got them with the Jets.
35:46
But again, do the six-and-a-half-point variety that gets the Eagles below the three to the two and a half. Those are your G Bank Best Bets of the Day.
35:53
Best Bets brought to you by G Bank, the official bank of VSiN, the G Bank Vis- uh, Visa, pardon me.
35:57
The G Bank Visa signature card, your best bet, delivering 1% cash back rewards on eligible gaming transactions and 2% cash back rewards on all other eligible purchases. For more information, head to vsin.com/gbank.
36:10
That's V-S-I-N.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply.
36:17
Ladies and gentlemen, he's always the anchorman The one that takes us home here on Football Fridays, he is the pioneer, even though he hates that term, of all things, uh, modeling, predictive modeling in sports betting.
36:28
It's the great Dr. Bob at DrBobSports, drbobsports.com. You may know him as Bob Stoll, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Bobby, how you doing? Doing all right, Gil. How are you guys? I'm doing very well.
36:39
Let's update the records. What do we got? Uh, 0 and 2 last week. 6-4-1 on the season, 112, 83 and 3, a solid 58% lifetime on your show. Wow. Man. Man, you've been coming on here a long time, haven't you?
36:55
112, 83 and 3 here on the show. From its inception, forever grateful for that. All right, you have a college play and you have a pro play. Let's begin with the college play.
37:05
Yeah, I, I, y- you probably know by now, I like, I think Washington is an underrated team, a very good team.
37:11
I gave them out a few weeks ago when they were at Rutgers, and of course, they out-gained Rutgers by over 200 yards and should have won that game. [laughs] Some fluky things happened, and they ended up losing by three.
37:20
I think on the show, I gave them out and they were plus two and a half.
37:23
By the time, uh, the, the show rolled around, I was lucky to grab plus three at the time, but the listeners did not get plus three, and that ended up being a loss. Um, but I'm back on Washington here against Iowa.
37:34
Um, Washington has outplayed every single opponent that they faced this year. They're underrated because I mentioned the fluky loss to, to Rutgers. They also lost to Washington State.
37:43
And those two losses, they outgained their opponents by a combined 287 total yards and 1.6 yards per play. So they, um, uh, they're playing like an undefeated top 10 team.
37:55
They're just not getting the respect, uh, you know, uh, uh, as being one.
37:59
They're outgaining their opponents by three yards per play, 7.2 yards per play on offense, 4.2 yards per play on defense, and it's not against a cupcake schedule. They played a decent schedule.
38:10
Um, aside from Rutgers and Washington State, they played Michigan and beat them. Uh, now you look at Iowa, they're known for their defense, and their defense has been good.
38:17
They've been a yard per play better than an average team when you compensate for who they faced. Washington defense is 1.2 yards per play better than average.
38:25
So Washington has a better defense and a much, much better offense. Iowa's slightly worse than average in compensated yards per play.
38:33
Husky's 1.5 yards per play better than an average offense, uh, when you factor in the defenses they faced, and they just beat a team very similar to Iowa last week.
38:42
They beat Michigan by 10, and I think they, uh, sh- they take down Iowa today. Uh, plus three minus 115 you could probably get right now at most books. Um, so I like, uh, I like Washington down to plus two. All right.
38:55
U- UDub plus the points, uh, plus three right now at Iowa at Kinnick Stadium. That is an early game tomorrow, noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific.
39:05
Before we go to the, to your NFL play, uh, because it's your alma mater, um, my condolences on Cal's loss to Miami- Uh-huh... after the targeting was not called in that game.
39:15
Um, is the Cal-Pitt line- Not on- Oh, go ahead. I'm sorry. Not only that- Yes... but on the winning touchdown, uh, uh, Miami had a lineman blocking in the end zone when the ball was thrown.
39:27
So there was an illegal lineman downfield on that play too, which- Mm-hmm... didn't, didn't get called. Yeah. I mean, just, just for, as I like to say, it's tipical. [laughs] Tipical. That's, [laughs] oh- Tipical...
39:40
that's great. Uh, is the Cal-Pitt line about where it should be according to your numbers this weekend? No, P- no, I, I, I just released, uh, right before we got on, I just released Pittsburgh as a play at minus three.
39:51
Okay. I like it. Uh, that might have gone up, that might have gone up slightly to minus, yeah, man, it's minus three and a half now.
39:56
Probably go back down to three, but Cal's in a really flat spot here, and Pitt's, Pitt's underrated still. Even though they're five and oh, they're still underrated. And I usually joke on the show.
40:05
I, I, uh, I imitate Urkel from "Family Matters." I go, "Did I do that?" In your case, you really did do that. That's why I went to minus three and a half. As Bob says, perhaps it will go back, though, to three.
40:15
But he's on Pitt at three. Okay. Um, NFL, what do you like? I like the Chargers this week. It's just the ma- I think the line is fine.
40:24
I mean, three, and they're favored by three, and that's minus 105, but, uh, but that's probably a fair line. I just think the matchup is so good for, for the Chargers here.
40:33
Uh, Denver's offense really relies on the run to set up a lot of what they do in the pass game. Um, but, um, the Chargers are the number one team in the league at minus 0.24 expected points added per rush allowed.
40:48
So they have the best run defense in the league, and if Denver is not able to run it, what they like to do is check down to running backs, which they do at the ninth highest, uh, you know, at a very high rate.
40:58
But the Chargers are best in the league at defending running backs in the pass game as well.
41:04
So this is not really a good matchup for the Broncos, who are ninth in the league in running success rate, but 29th in the league in drop back success rate.
41:12
So if they don't have a running game going and they can't throw it to the running backs, then they're gonna look, have to look downfield, um, but that's not necessarily a, a, a good situation either.
41:23
Uh, the Broncos have a third-string right tackle lining up against Khalil Mack. That's, that's likely to be a problem.
41:30
Um, and also, um, uh, Bo Nix has been worse against zone coverage relative, uh, to, um, to do against man coverage, and the Chargers, uh, play a ton of zone. 85% of the time they play zone, so that's not good for them.
41:45
Um, the Chargers on the o- on the other hand, both starting tackles back this week, and Justin Herbert ranks third in the league in, uh, his, his performance against the blitz relative to for his performance against the standard rush.
41:58
So he prefers when teams blitz him, and the Broncos blitz at the third highest rate in the league. So I think there's good matchups, uh, for, for, for the Chargers on both sides of the ball.
42:09
Uh, so even though I think three is probably fair if you ran the m- math, I think with the matchups, I think the Chargers should be favored by four and a half, and that's a good value when you're laying three All right, I close with this.
42:18
Okay, so UW in college football. He also threw in Pitt, by the way. We got a bonus. But UW is, uh, was the bet that he came on with, and, uh, the Los Angeles Chargers in the National Football League.
42:30
UW getting three, Chargers laying three.
42:32
Uh, before we go, minute left, I wanna ask you the same question I asked of our previous guest, which is, in the NFL, based on your numbers, who do you have most differently rated per sort of the conventional wisdom in the markets, either to the good or to the bad?
42:49
Oh. Now, that's a tough question. Um, I sa- I don't know. There, there hasn't really been a team that's stood out this year. Like, normally there always is one of those teams that kind of stands out.
43:03
Um, but this year there's nothing that comes off the top of my head as, oh, this team I'm betting on every week, or this team I'm betting against every week.
43:10
Uh, there's just not one of those teams this year as far as this... You know, not that anything is obvious. I think Cincinnati's still underrated. I think people are just really down on Cincinnati.
43:18
So maybe that, maybe Cincinnati would be my answer 'cause people are burying them and I still think they're a better than average team, so. Okay. Um, we'll see. Yeah.
43:26
Um, was there a team last year that, that was, like, way off that you remember, just off memory? Uh- And you kept betting either on them or against them? Well, sadly, we had a great season in the NFL last year.
43:38
[laughs] We were 50 and 27. We kept betting on New England. [laughs] Yeah. So that was, that was probably not so good, but we, we...
43:46
I think we were, like, one and three betting on New England, but 49 and 24 on all the other bets, so. Wow. Um, yeah.
43:52
That was probably the, uh, the team that bit us last year, was that the model kept, kept, uh, thinking New England was better than they were, and the defense was fine. We just should have bet, uh- Yeah...
44:01
the opponent's team under every week rather than relying on the New England offense to do anything. Okay. So that was probably the bump last year.
44:07
That'll be interesting to see if something develops like that, hopefully to the good, though, this year, uh, with your bets in the NFL. All right. Thank you, Bob. Appreciate it as always, man. All right. Have a good one.
44:17
Dr. Bob. Tip a Cal. I like that. Uh, talking about his alma mater, Cal, and their, uh, their woes, how things don't often work out for them on the football field. We've done all we can do.
44:27
Stormy is next with Jeff Schwartz on Money Moves. Enjoy from Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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