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Oct 15, 2024
A Numbers Game | October 15, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | October 15, 2024 | Hour 1
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:36
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. I say it slowly today 'cause I wanna- Right... I wanna let it breathe. I want people to- Oh, yeah...
0:46
soak in all the ways you can get us. Uh, no matter how you get us, we appreciate it. It is a Numbers Game. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is a nine and one Q2 Millions Kelly Bidlin. Let's go. Let's go, baby.
0:59
Nine and one, ladies and gentlemen, with three weeks to go- Yeah... in a five-week quarter. What could possibly go wrong, Gil? Let me repeat that, nine and one. He's the man to beat. What's the prize for the quarter?
1:10
I don't even check. I, I did that stupid thing and actually looked up the standings this morning. Oh, why'd you do that? Not even close. Are you kidding? There's like, there's like 37 people that are 10 and 0.
1:19
Oh, is that right? Yeah. [laughs] I think that's what it was. Oh. [laughs] Oh, you're toast. You're never winning. What's the, what's the prize for a quarter in Millions? Does, is that- Uh, I don't know, like 150.
1:26
Something- Oh... 150K, something like that. It's, it's low six, low six figures. Are there really 37 10 and 0s? Yeah. Oh, that's too bad. I thought you had a shot. I didn't even know where to guess.
1:34
I was guessing- Yeah... in my head like 20, 15, 20, but- It's, but, but again, it's too early anyway, right? I'm just sort of saying it facetiously. It's- Oh, of course. Yeah...
1:43
a week from now, maybe one can start thinking about it. I won't get excited until I'm four weeks- Yeah... into it. Um, he does that by virtue of the Bills win over the Jets yesterday. We'll talk about that momentarily.
1:54
Uh, on the show today, Drew Dincic to talk NFL, week six, uh, in the rear view, week seven coming up, what he's bet already. Will Hill with all his plays.
2:03
Paul Sporer on the championship series in Major League Baseball, which are now in, uh, full swing, see what I did there, uh, with the Yankees up one-nothing on the Guardians, and now the Mets and the Dodgers knotted up at one game a piece.
2:16
Let's go Metropolitans and all you s- you Met-starved fans out there, um, who are looking to, uh, get back to the World Series for the first time since the year 2000. Um, and a little fantasy with Todd Wright.
2:30
How about that today? Sure. Todd Wright, the greatest radio host, greatest sports talk radio host there ever d- there ever was. All, all night with Todd Wright back at, uh, ESPN Radio back in the day.
2:38
He has his own fantasy podcast. By the way, Todd, who lives in Tampa, we gotta ask him about Hurricane Milton- Yeah... and how that went down for him. Uh, he's okay. He'll talk fantasy with us today.
2:48
Uh, about that game last night, the, the football game, that is, between the Bills and the Jets, I too had the Bills. Um, listen, guessing lines has done wonderful things.
2:58
People can say whatever they want, but that exercise works beautifully. Mm-hmm. You and I are a combined 17 and three this quarter, uh, doing it that way.
3:05
This game last night, if you missed it, let, let me just start by saying this. This became,
3:11
I, I don't wanna be prisoner of the moment, but of all officials-driven unwatchable games, meaning that it was a flag fest, this might have been the worst one I've ever seen. Yeah. Completely agree.
3:24
It might have been the worst just sort of intrusion on a football game. Not saying that, that some of it wasn't justified.
3:31
Um, but let's l- I wanna, wanna go back to the beginning of this game 'cause there were so many little things. First of all, the, the Jets are up three to nothing. Jets are up three to nothing.
3:40
The Bills go on this long drive, nine plays, 70 yards, where eight of the runs were for 61 of them.
3:45
It was Ty Johnson for 12, then it was Ray Davis out of Kentucky for three 14, six five, 15 and five, just up the gut, right?
3:54
This ent- the, the drive was so dominant and you figured, "Oh my God, the Bills are gonna do this all night," and then they kind of went away from it the rest of the night. Yeah. But anyway, Bills went up seven to three.
4:03
Uh, Jets came right back with a long drive of their own. Rodgers to Wilson from five out, and that made it nine to seven. And then did anybody, like, they didn't make a big enough deal about this.
4:14
Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. Did everybody just decide that extra point was good? Because that extra point looked completely off to me. [laughs] Yes. And they're like, "It's good." I'm like, "What?" Uh, yeah.
4:25
And it was not one of those optical illusion ones. Like, it was way off to me. Yeah, I, uh, I screwed up later in the game as I was trying to count up all the missed kicks, and I was, I- All right...
4:34
I had miscounted that one. This one they gave to Zuerlein. Yeah. So it's 10-seven Jets. I, uh, this is late first quarter. I'm like, "How is that good?"
4:41
Later, um, Buffalo on the strength of a, uh, Allen to Ray Davis 42-yard play, uh, they end up with a touchdown, um, at the end, Mack Hollins from eight out, 10 plays, 90 yards.
4:53
Oh, that was that end zone throw from Allen. That was ridiculous. That was amazing. Yeah. 13 to 10. They do miss the extra point. Uh, Bass could not make it. He was wide on this one.
5:03
So now the kicking woes, you're already like, "Okay, that was interesting. Like, that might have been two missed extra points." It's 13 to 10 Buffalo.
5:10
Um, later, Buffalo takes over at their own 20 with 2:49 left, same score, 2:49 left in the second quarter. They have a double dip opportunity up 13 to 10. They do in fact go 10 plays, 80 yards.
5:25
Allen to Knox from 12 out on a third and 11 at the Jets 12. It's 20 to 10 Buffalo with 20, 21 seconds left in the quarter, and then Rodgers does a Rodgers thing, his fourth career Hail Mary, [laughs]
5:38
it's ridiculous, to Lazard from 52 out. 20 to 17 Buffalo at the half, and you're like, "Uh, wow." Yeah. If you're a Buffalo backer, you're like, "Really? Did that just happen?"
5:49
E- especially s- I mean, like, i- instant takeaway. Like, you d- did you think that was a catch? You know, the way the guys ripped it out at the end, I was like, "Okay, well, obviously that didn't get caught."
5:58
Well, well, from our angle, it looked like there was a catch, and then there was a delay. There was, like, a beat before the ball appeared. So I did wonder, I was like, "Did he catch that?" And sure enough- Yeah...
6:08
the reverse angle showed that he did. Yeah. So 20 to 17. Buffalo then gets the ball. As we talked about, they, they would've had a double dip opportunity, but before the Hail Mary.
6:18
They get a Tyler Bass 47-yard field goal try. That is wide right, because apparently MetLife is now the worst place to ever kick a field goal. [laughs] Right, yeah. The wi- the wind was weird, right?
6:28
'Cause the pregame it was windy. They were talking about the wind. Which, what, but what cracked me up is it felt like half the time they showed these missed kicks, you know, the flags at the top were just dead. Yeah.
6:37
They weren't even moving. So you're like, "Is the, is there wind? Are they overcompensating for the wind? What's going on here?" Get Lombardi on the phone so he can violently disagree with me- [laughs]...
6:45
about the wind, about the wind direction. So anyway, it's still 20 to 17, 'cause, 'cause Bass misses that. Uh, that was set up by Allen to Samuel for 38, by the way, which is a great play by Josh Allen.
6:55
Then the Jets, um, the Jets three and out, but Epenesa ruled for a body weight call sacking Rogers, which is just criminal. I mean, they, they might as well have flags- Yep... on their, on their bodies at this point.
7:09
So that extended the drive. Of course, it leads to a Zuerlein field goal, 20 to 20. That was a 22-yard chip shot. Uh, and then after a Buffalo three and out, Zuerlein gets a, they get it back in field goal range.
7:19
Zuerlein 32-yard attempt, no good. Hits the left upright after a would-be touchdown was nullified by a hold. That hit the, uh, the outside of the upright and bounced wide. So we're- We hold...
7:31
this is the last minute of the third quarter, so it's still 20 to 20. Buffalo's ensuing drive, false start, illegal formation, unsportsmanlike, three and out. Then the Jets get a Zuerlein 43-yard field goal try.
7:42
That bangs off the left right again, this time on the, off the inside of it this time. That misses, so it's still 20 to 20.
7:49
Buffalo gets a chip shot Tyler Bass 22-yarder to make it 23 to 20 with 3:43 left, and an unsportsmanlike on the Jets ensues after that field goal.
7:59
But instead of the Bills mortar kicking this to actually force the Jets into bad field goal position, they stupidly just kick it into the end zone. I just don't understand why teams do that.
8:11
Like, you have the opportunity now with that penalty to do something with that. They don't. Um, Rogers then gets bailed out on what used to be a tuck rule, but is no longer. That rule went away in 2013.
8:23
But essentially, it looked like he fumbled. It looked like he had, uh, completed the throwing motion. Um, but by letter of the law, because the ba- because his arm was still going forward, even if the ball
8:35
j- is jarred loose and even if it goes backwards, it's still an incomplete pass. Which again, is kind of against the spirit of the game. Yeah, like it looks silly. Yes, yeah. It is just...
8:45
But anyway, Jets sort of get bailed out there again. Um, then a PI on an uncatchable pass, but there was an uncatchable pass that the Bills got the benefit of a PI on- Sure, yeah... earlier in the game.
8:57
Then offsetting penalties. Remember, when, in the final box score, what's listed as penalties are the, just the accepted penalties. Mm-hmm. These, then it was offsetting penalties. Then a hold.
9:06
Eventually, Rogers picked deep by Taron Johnson with 1:52 left in the fourth quarter. Uh, but the Jets had all three timeouts. But you knew, you kinda could predict this.
9:15
You knew that Josh Allen on a third down was gonna have a designed run and win this game for Buffalo, and that's exactly what happened. 23 to 20, the Buffalo Bills are your winners.
9:24
22 penalties total for 204 yards, 11 for 94 for Buffalo, 11 for 110 [laughs] for the Jets. And, uh, we'll have to ask Todd Wright about Ray Davis. But the Bills win, and I just sorta ask you, Kelly, uh, after that game,
9:39
did you learn anything new about either of these teams? And what I mean by that is the Bills to me were always- Mm-hmm... a Josh Allen-driven Superman team. Yep.
9:48
Still not a great football team around him, but he is Superman and can win a game for you on his own.
9:54
And then there's the Jets, who had every opportunity in the world, but their defense isn't nearly as good as we thought it would be. Yeah, I think the, I think the Bills are exactly what, what you and I expected.
10:06
Yes, the defense is suffering a little bit. Not great right now. Um, I thought, I, I, I thought Rogers looked pretty crisp.
10:13
I thought some of the offense looked a little bit better than it had, but it, it wasn't, wasn't enough, wasn't huge. Um, I do have some breaking news for you- What's that?...
10:21
that might help for the, uh, New York Jets here. It is done. Davante Adams to the New York Jets. Wow, just happened. Just coming across right now. Wow, there you go.
10:29
From Ian Rapoport, this will be a conditional fourth rounder to the Raiders that can become a second rounder based on his performance. So that's how they g- that's how they, uh, the, the Jets save face here.
10:41
They wanted a sec- [laughs] Yes, that's the win today, I guess. They... Oh, excuse me. Pardon me. That's how the, uh, Raiders save face. Pardon me. They wanted a second.
10:48
Um, they, they don't get a second by the letter, but within s- with, uh, if he hits thresholds, they will get themselves a second round draft pick.
10:56
So Davante Adams, the transaction that everybody knew was coming at some point, or everyone assumed was coming at some point, and now has happened. The Jets get their help on offense.
11:06
As I was saying before the game last night, it only seems like, uh, y- Aaron Rogers has chemistry with his former Packer teammate Allen Lazard. Mm-hmm.
11:16
Now the most chemistry that he ever had with any receiver in Davante Adams. Davante Adams goes to the Jets for a fourth, uh, but conditional. It could be a second round draft pick if Davante meets some thresholds.
11:27
So there you go, New York Jetropolitans. This is, uh- He got you some... all co- all coming down right now, Gil. We have, uh, conflicting reports. Schefter saying it's a third that can become a second.
11:36
The point is it can become a second, I guess. It can become a second. Okay. Little, uh, little war of, uh, Rapaport- [laughs] Yes... Rapaport versus Schefter. Versus Schefter, yeah. [laughs] Hope those two work it out.
11:45
Um, all right, there you go. So Jets, uh, while you're stewing on that loss last night, you got yourself Davante.
11:51
The two and four Jets, everybody in the AFC East now looking up at the Bills, who again, are not a great football team, but certainly have been the best in that division by far.
12:02
Maybe solely, not solely, but majority of the wise, through the strength of the great Josh Allen. Davante to the Jets.
12:09
We're coming back with Drew Dinsick next, his reaction, right here on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:26
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12:38
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12:40
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12:49
Remember to use promo code ANG, though- Like a numbers game... to get your first year of VSiN Pro access for only $199. Sign up today at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. It's Gill Alexander.
13:04
It's Kelly Bilin. I feel like you're mailing in those ANGs. [laughs] Oh, oh, man, I'm sorry. You used to be way more creative. [laughs] Now you're just like, "Like a numbers game."
13:13
[laughs] I haven't done it for a long time. Anyway. By the way, Mets fans, I apologize. Of course, you were in the World Series in 2015, losing to the Royals famously. My bad. I said 2000. Before that, it was 2000.
13:24
Mets trying to get back, nonetheless, for the first time in nine years. Knotted up with the Dodgers, uh, one game a piece now, um,
13:32
and the Mets get the prospect of having to face Walker Buehler in Game 3, and Walker Buehler has not been good, uh, ERA north of five. So Mets feeling good about themselves. Guardians gotta get off the, uh, schneid.
13:43
Game two, [clears throat] pardon me, we'll talk with Paul Spohrer about this later. Game two of the Yankees and the Guardians ALCS, Game number two tonight.
13:50
That's gonna be Gerrit Cole against Tanner Bi- uh, uh, Bybee rather, and I don't know. That price is, feels Yankees inflated to me. Yankees are north of a minus 170 favorite.
14:05
This has 2003 World Series vibes, where the Yankees were playing the Marlins, and every price was just way too high because they're the Yankees.
14:14
That was right after their dynasty years, but this is starting to feel like that again. And I get it. Uh, it was a wild pitch fest yesterday, but minus 170? Man, shop around.
14:25
Yeah, I'm seeing as high as minus 172, minus 160 out here at Circa. Yeah. Uh, keep betting it up. I'll take the Guardians if it gets, uh, if it gets any higher, I'll probably take the Guardians on that.
14:34
We'll talk to Spohrer about that. Maybe he feels differently a little later on. Let's talk some football. Drew Dincic joins us now, uh, @whale_capper.
14:41
He's the host of not one, but two podcasts, The Deep Dive with Andy Molator, Dincic Classic, and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge, which he does w- which he, which he does, pardon me, with Jake Croucher and his Australian accent.
14:53
Uh, it's Drew Dincic, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Drewski, how you doing, man? Oh, doing well. Great. Thank you for the baseball update. I didn't know we were still playing baseball. This is great.
15:01
[laughs] Yes. Uh, I, I'm just kidding. [laughs] This is- Uh, the Dodgers are, yeah, the Dodgers are hot, uh, around these parts, and, uh, it's, it's good when they win.
15:10
There's only two stabbings on 2nd Street in Long Beach. When they lose, it's- Heyo... there's more stabbings. So, uh- [laughs]... we want the Dodgers to, uh, we want the Dodgers to keep winning here, obviously.
15:19
Uh, so- And, and don't-... so much drama in the LBC. Oh. True. So much drama in the LBC. There you go. And don't worry, Drew, it's Tuesday, so we can all watch baseball now.
15:27
[laughs] We're all allowed to watch baseball now. I, by the way, Drew, for a second, I thought you were, like, completely sincere. You're like, "This is great. There's baseball?" There's baseball on?
15:34
[laughs] This is awesome. Uh, let's start with the news this morning that just broke.
15:38
Davante Adams to the Jets for, depending on who you believe, either a fourth or a third that, in either case, could, uh, ascend to a second-round pick. That way- Mm-hmm...
15:47
as I, as I put it last, last segment, that way the Raiders sort of save face on this. Mm-hmm. Uh, does this move the needle for the Jets for you? Well, it's a positive.
15:59
Uh, but I, I mean, is he gonna, is he gonna run block? Is, is he gonna play linebacker and, and do a better job of tackling? [laughs] Uh, is he, uh- He is not... is he, is he going to play...
16:09
Is he gonna step in for Terron Smith and play left tackle so that, uh, Aaron Rodgers' blind side is, has a little bit, little better protection? Um, no, he's, he's gonna kind of fill a little bit of a...
16:18
I mean, it's not a redundant role. He's gonna be a huge upgrade over what, you know, Mike Williams was providing for this team, which was a big gold- big old pile of nothing.
16:25
Um, and I think Adams obviously has elite chemistry with Rodgers that should be rekindled in a matter of weeks, I would assume. Um, I've...
16:33
You know, Rodgers and Gary Wilson have had a, a pretty budding, um, you know, a, a budding relationship themselves, I feel like, this season.
16:41
So, uh, hopefully, that doesn't get disrupted but, uh, you know, the, the, the issues with the, um, Jets are much deeper than just needing talent in the offensive side of the ball.
16:52
Um, I don't just begrudge the Jets of pulling the trigger on a, a deal here, especially if, if it was, uh, you know, at the hands of Joe Douglas.
17:00
Um, he's, he's not gonna be making that pick anyway, [laughs] so he might as well trade whatever he wants to, you know, try to accumulate talent to save, uh, save his job here.
17:08
So, um, it, uh, it's a mess in New York, obviously. Last night's loss was massively important for them making the playoffs and doing anything in the playoffs, in my opinion.
17:17
Because I don't see this Jets team as a team that is especially likely to be able to go on the road against elite competition and find ways to win. Um, their defense has enough cracks this year.
17:27
It's alm- it's almost like the last couple of years where the defense was asked to hold up the entire team on their backs broke them to a degree that they are, uh, they're just a little bit more susceptible to the good teams in the NFL this year.
17:41
Yeah. Uh, and I feel like you saw that on Monday Night Football against the Niners.
17:45
We kinda forgot about that when the Jets played a bunch of bad teams like the Patriots, and then against, uh, Josh Allen and the Bills, it was obvious again.
17:52
Like, yeah, I mean, like, this is a good defense, but it's not great. It's certainly not generational.
17:57
Um, and I think, uh, that's kind of where they need to be, considering some of the limitations with the offense, both scheme and personnel on the offensive line.
18:05
So, um, yeah, I think the The Jets are probably right now fighting for a sixth or seventh wildcard spot, at which point they're gonna have to go on the road and beat teams like the Bills, which, you know, where you, you can kind of point to the fluky stuff that went against you if you're a Jets fan last night, I guess.
18:22
Um, but at the end of the day, um, they were extremely lucky to be in that game. Yes. So, uh- Yeah, I mean, I- Yeah, I, I- I'm fa-... that, that was a clear beating, I thought... I'm fascinated by that reaction, right?
18:33
Like, you, a lot, a lot of Jets fans, a lot of Jets backers feel like they got the worst end of luck last night. I'm like, you had a Hail Mary. They probably gave you an extra point you didn't make.
18:42
You had that, you know, fumble that wasn't, right? Like, there were so many- Mm... things that you got away with, too. I get it, you clanked two, uh, two field goals. They missed a field goal, too. Yeah.
18:52
Um, so yeah, that's an interesting reaction.
18:54
And, and also, you know, beyond everything you're saying, which is 100% true, while everyone in the Aaron Rodgers Achilles thing, right, like, oh, he could have played last year, and then this year, like, the same people that said that are like, "Oh, the Achilles might hamper him this year."
19:08
No, none of that is true. He couldn't have played last year. The Achilles is not hampering this year. He's playing like a quarterback that is going to be 41 years old, right? [laughs] In December.
19:18
And in some ways, I feel like Tom Brady spoiled, not, not all of us, not just from a football viewing standpoint, but he tweaked in our brains what we think is possible, right? Yeah. Like, he's- No question. Yeah.
19:32
Yeah, and I mean, uh, that, he was also operating in a different time. Like, def- defense is just better now across the NFL. Like, it's more well-coordinated.
19:41
There's better, just better concepts, uh, I feel like, uh, as we kind of have evolved the game of football.
19:46
And, um, you know, the, the teams and the offenses that really stand out to you right now, like, they have, they have a, a functional running game.
19:56
Uh, and in some cases, it's so good so early in the game that it forces the opponent to adjust their defense in order to have any chance at, uh, kind of getting the other team off, you know, you know, getting the offense off the field, and that has opened up opportunities in the passing game.
20:11
This is very, very obvious when you watch Ravens, when you watch the Detroit Lions, and it absolutely kind of forces the opponents to, um, you know, kind of pivot on their plan A in terms of running defense and give them what was w- used to be sort of the way teams did consistently run defense.
20:29
Right. Yeah. Uh, with more base and more, oops, more base and more heavy personnel and more peop- more and more bodies in the box.
20:35
And, um, and so it's, if, if you are stuck like the Jets, where your running backs are getting half a yard before contact, um, you're in trouble. It doesn't matter how good Aaron Ro- Aaron Rodgers could- That's right...
20:49
be, he could be performing at a Tom Brady 41-year-old level, um, you know, if he had s- if he had just avoided tomatoes instead of taking ayahuasca. He could be doing the 20, the 41-year-old Tom Brady thing out there.
21:01
[laughs] And it wouldn't matter right now because the running game is absolutely useless. And in fact, Tom Brady's finality in Tampa Bay was with a completely useless running game, and that was an embarrassment.
21:14
They trickled into the playoffs at, what, eight and nine, I think? I believe so. And, uh, were just an absolute, you know, just absolutely drumped, you know, thumped by the, uh, the Cowboys at home in that one.
21:24
So, you know, I mean, it, it, uh, complementary football right now is relatively important.
21:29
And, you know, the offenses that are truly succeeding are able to, um, you know, are able to get things done on the ground early in games.
21:36
You know, you have good run blocking, you have good scheme, and then you have innovative play callers who are creating, you know, space for the, uh, you know, the weapons that you have in the passing game to then pivot and just absolutely, uh, you know, kind of put punishment on these teams.
21:51
And, you know, the, the good offenses, the top two offenses I would rate right now, um, uh, are, you know, just at, with personnel available would be Baltimore and Detroit.
21:59
And that, that fact that those two teams are capable of getting things done on the ground is, is a huge reason why.
22:05
And, you know, I'm assuming with Ch- when Christian McCaffrey comes back for the Niners, they're gonna be in that conversation as well.
22:11
I'm assuming as Green Bay continues to, you know, kind of find their feet, they're gonna be in that conversation with that O line playing out of their minds and Josh Jacobs looking like the guy from two years ago.
22:20
So, you know, it's, it's a, there's an elite group at the top, uh, that has, you know, kind of solid complementary football that I think you really have to pay attention to right now offensively.
22:29
Real quick, 'cause I wanna get to your week seven picks after this, but in 20 seconds, uh, i- if the Jets have their level, doesn't it feel like the Bills do, too?
22:36
Like, they're a division winner who's gonna make the playoffs, but, like, let's not get crazy kinda thing after that? Without question. Yeah, absolutely.
22:44
I mean, this is a team that you're gonna have really, really, really hard time going to the futures window and pressing button on, that Sean McDermott still makes some decisions that are head-scratching in game.
22:55
Uh, Josh Allen still has plays where it looks like he's, wants to do something crazy, Josh Allen-ity.
23:01
Uh, and I think, uh, the defense has taken a monumental step back in terms of just not having per- healthy personnel, and, uh, that's gonna, that's gonna ultimately, uh, doom them, I would assume.
23:11
Drew with his week seven picks on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:20
Back on the numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Skill Alexander. We got tweets at Beating The Book, Dgen Southern Gent.
23:29
Uh, Dgen Southern Gent has shown us a video of this, uh, first extra point from the Jets. This is, "My apologies for my poor directorial abilities, but this is the extra point in question.
23:38
Why did I record an extra point, you ask? Because he clearly didn't make this kick." I was so confused with this. I, I, I went to the restroom after this was kicked last night. Yeah. I came back.
23:47
I was like, "Well, why is the score wrong?" I was so confused at why the score was wrong. Then they just moved along like nothing happened. The numbers, guys. Davante Adams, most chemistry ever? Um, Donald Driver much?
24:00
I, I don't know. He, I don't, I, I think you're trying to say that Dev- that Aaron Rodgers had better chemistry with some other receiver than he did with Davante Adams.
24:07
Uh, he didn't have any b- any better chemistry with anybody else than he did with Davante Adams through his career. He had great chemistry with others too, but Davante was, those guys were, like, attached by a string.
24:16
Yeah, there was, like, uh, I mean, what, like- Yeah... four different wide receivers you could say this about with him? Yeah. With, uh, Davante. But, uh, yeah, I'm with you. Davante, I think, uh- Yeah...
24:23
well, maybe the most talented of them all, too. Uh, Sean Foxplays, "When are coaches gonna wise up on a Hail Mary plays, putting in your 6'4" wide receivers who can jump better than playing with the 6'0", 6'1" DBs?"
24:34
Jesse Welch, "I just noticed that, uh, VSiN is currently running a Sky Rizzy commercial during the break. I choose to believe that's happening because of all the pharmaceutical-related tweets we send y'all."
24:42
[laughs] Well, and guests. And guests. Larry, Larry Fresh, calling, uh, "Gil calling out Kelly for the A&G numbers game promo.
24:49
Maybe it's different because he's sitting on the wrong side, or maybe he just hasn't heard enough Bob Seger this morning." [laughs] "Long live Bar Canada."
24:56
Uh, there's definitely, there's definitely a change in our, our, our close, tight studio here from the open, vast, empty Bar Canada, where I could just scream things across the, uh, across the way. Do you miss it?
25:10
D- uh- Yeah, that's all you had to say. A little bit. A little bit. It's all... Eh, I don't know if I do. It will always be a piece of our life, Gil, okay? Yes. You gotta, you gotta cherish the moments, okay?
25:18
Well, we'll always have Bar Canada. That's right. And then, uh, Sports Balls Samuel Sierra says, "Crazy how this Adams trade went down in broad daylight." [laughs] That's, that's very true.
25:27
Nothing good ever goes down in broad daylight. Well done. Uh, Drew Dincic kind enough to, uh, hang with us for a second segment, as he always does. Very kind.
25:35
Uh, again, @whale_capper is where you can find him on Twitter. The Deep Dive podcast, must listen to.
25:41
Uh, NBC Sports', uh, Bet the Edge, which I don't get to listen to as much, I'm sure is also must listen to, and Jay adds a, a fascinating perspective to that as well. Um, but Deep Dive is a deep dive, man.
25:52
Can't beat the Deep Dive. Drew Dincic, everybody, from Long Beach, California, where, again, he's making Dodgers jokes, which I think are awesome. Uh- [laughs] Uh, so let's start with week seven. What do you like?
26:03
What have you bet? You'd think they're jokes, but there were two stabbings- I know... after the Dodgers game on 2nd Street, like a block from my house. [laughs] It was, uh, it's, it's weird there late at night.
26:12
Um, week, uh, this week looks tough, honestly. Um, my numbers are s- relatively tight, and I, you know, it's mostly just how are you accounting for some of the big injuries. Um, the...
26:24
I'm a little bit on the fence here about w- how to try to, uh, reflect the defensive injuries for guys like Hutchinson and, and, um, uh, Jonathan Allen for the Commanders, 'cause, like, we're seeing that at least temporarily if, you know, some of, you know, outside of quarterbacks, um, you know, the, uh, the backfill for at least a week or two has been pretty solid for edges, for D tackles, for running backs.
26:51
Um, you know, I think, I think in general, um, you know, I'm not ready to, you know, raise a sincere, um, you know, flag of concern for the Detroit defense, uh, until we can kind of get a little bit more information on, you know, what that looks like against an elite, uh, group, and I'm not sure I qualify Minnesota's offense as elite right now.
27:12
Um, surely Sam Darnold has had an outstanding start to the season. Surely, um, you know, the offensive line is, is quite solid there.
27:20
The skill positions led by, uh, Justin Jefferson, who's having a little bit of a, an off season so far, have... You know, they're, they're good, but I don't think this is a great team.
27:28
I would right now make, uh, Minnesota's offense 13th best in the NFL. Um, they obviously have an outstanding defense.
27:35
Um, but, uh, I think that kind of the balance that Detroit brings to this game in terms of, you know, run pass and, um, the fact that their offensive line is the best in football right now and is creating all of the time in the world for Jared Goff is pretty huge in this matchup.
27:49
Minnesota's still, uh, you know, relatively blitz happy under, uh, Brian Flores.
27:54
There's been some people who have really tried to kind of shape the narrative that he's evolving there and things are changing, but they're the second heaviest blitz team in the NFL right now behind D- uh, Denver.
28:03
So, uh, I think that Jared Goff has shown an ability to really, uh, thrive against that type of system.
28:10
Um, and with the pass blocking right now that Detroit has and just the level of effort you're seeing from that team, uh, I think they're, they're playing, uh, well enough to get a win on the road at Minnesota coming off the bye there.
28:21
So, uh, I'm taking, uh, Detroit on the money line at plus 122. Um, I'd make that game about a pick'em, so, uh, I like that down, you know, probably into the plus 10- to 110, 105 range I still show value, so. Yeah.
28:36
I, I- Uh, looking for, uh, some Lions here. I bet Detroit as well already. Yesterday on the show I bet the Patriots, I bet the Lions, and I bet the Niners. Um, the, let me just ask you about the- I like all those...
28:45
the Lions and Vikings one is interesting. Oh, you do like... I'm, I'm, I'm happy you do like them. That makes me feel better. The, the Lions, Vikings is interesting sort of entree to ask this question. Does home field
28:56
matter to you anymore in the NFL? Oh, man. I mean, I make it about, uh, a little under a point and a half right now. I just, like, on average that's what it works out to.
29:07
I treat home field as a, um, uh, an adjustment to win probability of 5%, uh, a little under 5%, about 4 1/2%. Um, that's as low as I've had it.
29:18
Um, there are certain games where teams are in just brutal situations, travel, um, and rest and just external factors where I will bump home field advantage up to closer to 8%, but, uh, that's about as high as I can really convince myself it ought to be.
29:34
Um, the, yeah, the, the kind of the factors that really drive home field advantage are starting to wane.
29:41
Um, their, you know, communication between the quarterback and the offensive line on the road has gotten better as teams recognize that that's important and they practice it.
29:50
Um, the officiating has tried to get more neutral even in spite of bringing fans back into stadiums and having influence of, uh, you know, of the crowd on the officials.
29:59
Um, and I think, uh, just in general teams being able to handle travel, um, and, you know, kind of more investment on the team side and, and kind of making sure players are recovered and comfortable and, and, uh, not impacted by the, uh, negatives of travel has, has really just made home field advantage pretty, uh, insignificant at this point.
30:19
So, um, yeah, I think, uh, ultimately it's, it's pretty small factor, and, uh, I don't mind putting, uh, getting down on, uh, road teams whatsoever. I think, uh- Yeah... um- A- Detroit at Minnesota is a good example.
30:30
Like, Minnesota presumably has, has outstanding home field advantage with the way that they can kind of really, really ramp up the, uh Um, you know, the, the decibels, uh, in that stadium.
30:42
But, um, you know, it's good to take, uh, the air out of that place.
30:45
Uh, a nice, uh, 12-play drive where, uh, you know, they are just road grading your D-line, and David Montgomery, uh, is getting five yards a carry and then, then scores a touchdown.
30:55
You know, that, that, uh, that has the tendency to, to really, uh, kind of put a little bit of cold water on a crowd.
31:00
So, um, yeah, I think there are certain teams and certain game states where I don't mind going against home, really even good home field advantage. Yeah, Green Bay was the other one I played yesterday, guessing lines.
31:09
I didn't want to, to, to leave one out. Mm-hmm. The, uh, last thing, I don't want to take you on a, on too much of another side, 'cause I wanna hear your other picks, but you mentioned Hutchinson and, and Jonathan Allen.
31:18
So Allen, you're taking away a great defensive player from a defense that already sucks, right? Yeah. So they're just going from sucky to suckity. [laughs] Right? I believe is the technical term.
31:28
With Hutchinson, what do you do with that? So Hutchinson to me, I g- So again, like, this is, this, this is a tough one, because, uh, Detroit was putting teams in a game state where Hutchinson could really thrive.
31:42
Uh, his numbers looked unbelievable so far this season, but largely because the first four, uh, games he went up against backup right tackle. So you know, I, I think he obviously matters. Oof. He obviously matters a lot.
31:52
But I also just, it doesn't really change my opinion to the point of thinking that the Lions can't win a coin flip type of game.
32:01
Um, uh, you know, the, uh, are the Lions gonna be able to successfully put away a team that they're eight points better than? If they're laying seven and a half, maybe not.
32:09
Like, that, that's k- kind of where pass rush in my mind is maybe a little bit more, um, you know, kind of critical in terms of making a bet.
32:16
Um, I would say though that the Lions' coverage has been much better, uh, you know, this season than I expected coming into the year. I give Brian Branch most of the credit for that.
32:26
Uh, you know, I think there's still so, you know, Carlton Davis has played fine, but not, like, especially great. Um, Terrence Arm, uh, Arnold is still a work in progress as a rookie.
32:35
But, uh, Branch has been phenomenal, and in general, the safeties are playing well for Detroit.
32:40
So their coverage has been better than expected, and so I downgrade their pass rush to just a little below leav- league average in the absence of Hutchinson.
32:47
Um, but again, for me, I make the, you know, the Detroit's a, a, you know, a top-rated offense in the NFL.
32:53
Um, and you know, you're going up against a defense in the Vikings here that loves to blitz, and Goff eats that alive. So, uh, happy to be involved with Lions- All right... at, at this, uh, this kind of price point.
33:02
If you would, could you rapid fire the other picks that you've made, or the other bets that you've made? Sure. Uh, agree with you on Patriots. I played the six. Uh, I don't get that at all. My fair is fi- 3.3.
33:13
Uh, so yeah, not even close. Yeah. Um, I played, uh, the San Francisco 49ers. Uh, I like the, I, you know, laid down, I actually sold out to two and a half there.
33:23
I thought about waiting later in the week, 'cause Kansas City always tends to take money and maybe get a little bit better price, but I don't think it's really gonna get that much better than it is right now, so 9ers for me.
33:32
Uh, and, uh, I like the New York Giants, uh, plus the three points. Ooh. Expecting neighbors to come back. Loving the matchup of the Giants' D line against an injured and a little bit overrated Eagles offensive line.
33:44
And, uh, just in general, nothing about what's going on with Sirianni and the Eagles right now screams, uh, I wanna be involved with betting them. So, uh, let's go Giants. Yeah, I guessed that it would be two and a half.
33:54
Kelly told me it was three and a half yesterday. They split the difference, it's at three now. I'm with you. Should never have been more than three, that's for sure. Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it, man.
34:02
Hey, best of luck to you guys. Drew Dintig, everybody, @whale_capper. Kelly and I take a look at some awards markets next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:18
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34:27
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34:34
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34:42
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34:53
Gotta be 21 years or older to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Billings. He's the nine and one guy.
35:04
We got tweets that beat the book. Uh, JasonH11, "The lack of Sigma Derby and Seeger is obviously affecting Kelly in a negative way. No emotion anymore. So sad. Hang in there, Kelly." You guys, keep tweeting it in.
35:15
[laughs] Keep tweeting. You talk it up, Gil. Just keep talking about it. Oh, man. Wait for how many emails we get about, from our bosses about, uh, Kelly screaming at the small studio. [laughs] This is very uncalled for.
35:27
Tweet from Bruce Dobegan, "Did Drew's suicidal fish do the deep dive?" [laughs] Let me repeat that. "Did Drew's suicidal fish do the deep dive?" This is very rude. It is rude.
35:38
His, his fish was, were very upset that Drew was out of town. They, uh, jumped out of the tank, two of them. Two of them. It was Joker and- I don't remember... Joker and, and- Another tennis player.
35:49
No, no, but it was J- Joker and Roger. Djokovic and Rog- Joker and Roger. They jumped out. Rafa's still okay. I forget. Drew- And, uh, Drew was very sad about it. And he had such a good line too.
35:58
He was like, "The, the second fish, it was the shortest version of Finding Nemo ever." [laughs] Hey-o. Eddie Molitor, always with the quips on the deep dive.
36:07
And then Brian M says, uh, Brian Moran- Moriannan says, "The next trades we'll see from the Jets, getting Tunnard and Jones from Minnesota- [laughs]... and Valdez, and Valdez-Scantling from Buffalo."
36:17
Yeah, as Aaron Rogers- Oh, man... tries to remake the old Packers, uh, in New York. That's the joke there anyway. All right, you wanna do, uh, some awards here? Yeah, let's do that. All right, let's take it.
36:27
Let's get a heat check on some of these NFL awards markets. Uh, I'll let you guide us through this.
36:31
I am, uh, I, I feel like I'm forgetting one or two, like, obnoxious receiver connections in Green Bay too, and a very up- and I'm very upset, uh, uh, with you about telling me about this, uh- Ravens-Commanders fan fight, uh- Oh, okay.
36:45
Let me just explain this. Yeah, yeah. So there's a video going around. Go ahead. Set, watch So, so after, so after the Ravens-Commodores game, uh, which the Ravens, I don't know if you heard this, they won 30 to 23.
36:53
[laughs] There's a, there's a Ravens- How is this not part of the, uh, guessing lines recap yesterday?
36:58
There's a Ravens fan who just decides to assault any Commodores fan, and he identifies them because they're wearing Commodores uniforms, right? He, like, WWE calls them over.
37:11
So, and, and, and he's screaming the whole time. He goes, "I don't lose." [laughs] Well, buddy, you lost, 'cause you're going to jail and you're gonna pay big money. I, I just don't understand what's happening.
37:20
And I was telling you, like, and I'm gonna sound 1,000 years old, I, but I mentioned this to Wishnev, um, when I... Growing up at RFK Stadium, best fans in the world, right?
37:28
And Wishnev, he could say Pittsburgh fans are the greatest.
37:30
But when there was a fight in the stadium when I was a kid, entire sections would stand and look over at the section in which this was happening because it was such a rarity. This is at RFK.
37:43
And Todd says, "I remember that happening in Pittsburgh, too. Entire sections would stand."
37:47
Now, you got some rando outside of a game thinking this is the most important thing in the world, and he needs to physically assault people. Like, what, what's going on here, man? I don't know.
37:56
It's gotten way worse, though. That, that's for sure. What, what, what's happening to this country? Anyway, let's stop. I, I'm trying to think.
38:02
I wa- I mean, the last Dolphins game I was at was probably, like, 15 years ago, so it's not like it was that recent. But, uh, yeah, you, you'd get fights that'd break out.
38:09
It was always, like, Dolphins fan versus Dolphins fan, of course. Like, they couldn't, like, somehow get in an argument with the, with the Jets fans that were overwhelming, uh, in the stadium.
38:17
Also, Drew brings it up, and he wasn't joking, right? The violence of, like, this Dodgers fan, Dodgers fans. Th- and this, we're talking baseball now. Yeah. We're talking baseball, right? They've just...
38:27
I mean, there was this, there was a Giants- Not football. Not football. Not football. We're talking baseball. [laughs] Right? There's a Giants fan who's paralyzed, right, from years ago- Oh, gee...
38:35
from being in, in, in the parking lot- Yeah... at Dodgers Stadium. That was terrible. Yeah. Like, I just, I just don't understand how we've gotten to this. Anyway, it's a whole 'nother subject.
38:41
Can we look at some awards markets? Not a game. Not a game. Practice. Not, not football. All right. Baseball. MVP, Patrick Mahomes, still your short shot, plus 360. Yeah. Uh, he's really good.
38:53
Josh Allen, uh, also really good. Y-sh- Plus 475. [laughs] Please, please give your commentary on all these guys. [laughs] Or Lamar Jackson, great runner, not quite as good as the top two guys, plus 550. [laughs] C.J.
39:03
Stroud maybe gonna win a Super Bowl this year, plus 650. Ladies and gentlemen- [laughs]... you, you cannot hear this kind of analysis anywhere else. [laughs] Jayden Daniels, your guy, 11 to 1 in MVP.
39:15
What, what are you currently making of the market, Gil? Um, I think it's, I think it's probably accurate. Um- Yeah... again, 50 human beings vote on this. MVP, they do one, two, three, four, five, if I'm not mistaken.
39:27
They rank them one, two, three, four, five.
39:29
And if, again, if you're to believe what Aaron Shots, Aaron Shots, our buddy from FTN, who's one of the 50, the way that he votes, he can't vouch for anybody else, but the way that he votes on this is, this is the quarterback award, and offensive player of the year is the depository for everybody else who's not a quarterback who performs the best.
39:47
So, um, do I think it's currently probably Patrick Mahomes? Yes, and I do think Josh Allen is 1A, and Lamar Jackson is probably 1B on this, if you- Yeah... and, and I think that's all true.
39:59
Do I think that the Jayden Daniels thing is interesting? Um, yes, because if he were to go crazy from here on out, he's already putting up ridiculous rookie numbers, right, that we've never seen before in some cases.
40:13
There is a scenario, but it's only a scenario, right? It's, it's only a, a specific path. It would have to be so unique compared to the others. I- I still have Bro... You know, I have the Brock Purdy bet at 15 to 1.
40:25
To me, that's still interesting because- Yeah, you, you and I both got involved- Yeah... with that, what, last week? Yeah. That was last week when we bet that. Or a couple weeks ago, yeah.
40:31
Yeah, I was gonna say, how you feeling about that now? I, I- There's so much football to be played I know, yeah. I, I know. I, I, I don't, I don't mind the bet. I, I think it's still around similar number.
40:40
I, that's what I'd recommend. Let, let's put it this way. There's nothing on this board that jumps off the screen for me. I think the Daniels and Darnold conversations are interesting, though, because I don't...
40:50
This feels so NBA-ish to me, but, like, I don't, I don't... I think Jayden Daniels would have to have a ridiculous season for him to m- win MVP. Yes. 'Cause they're just gonna rush to hand him Rookie of the Year.
40:59
Correct. Think it's good enough. And Darnold, it goes to, and we might be j- I might be jumping ahead on you guys back there, sorry, but, like, this is the Comeback Player of the Year conversation, right?
41:08
He does not, doesn't qualify for that award. He does not. So if you're looking to bet anything on Sam Darnold, just bet him on MVP. I'm not saying he's gonna win.
41:17
Well, I necessarily think it's a great bet, but I think Comeback Player of the Year is the worst bet you could make. Man, they got passionate there, that's for sure. Oh, I, I wasn't- Yeah... I wasn't yelling loud enough.
41:27
That's what he told me, Gil.
41:27
Well, well, the, uh, the, the, what Kelly means by the Darnold is not eligible, Darnold is, quote-unquote, "eligible," but he's not eligible by the language of the rule ch- of, of the award explanation change. Yes.
41:39
Right? Um, okay. What's the next market? Now, do I know for sure that, like, every voter understands that- Well, that's, so that's-... those sort of things? So that- No, I don't... that's the other question.
41:48
Do, are th- are the voters actually gonna adhere to that new language? Yeah. Some will, some might not. All right, next. O- Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels.
41:57
This is, by the way, the j- the fact that Jayden Daniels is now only minus 195 'cause Caleb had himself a game here, um, I still think that's low on Jayden Daniels.
42:07
Please, I hope Jayden and Caleb both stay healthy the rest of the way and they can, uh, they can have this- Yeah, this might be fun... you know, figured out on the field, but right now it's Jayden.
42:17
You- And this is the one where, where Aaron Shots would, again, using just Aaron Shots, he's the one voter we had on, who said this would be the one award that if we were giving it out now, he wouldn't even have to re- do any research or any tape viewing.
42:28
Yeah. It's Jayden's and that's it. So what was it all, three weeks ago, right, we were having the conversation of, you know, could a non-quarterback wi- win Rookie of the Year?
42:37
I think you, myself, Chris Fallica all said yes at the time. How do you feel about that now? 'Cause I think it is one of those two at the top. With Offensive Rookie of the Year? Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
42:46
Oh, no, I mean it's Jayden's. Uh, no. There's nothing. I, I, I mean, I know you're really high on him too. Yeah. For me, minus 195 is, like, back in betting range. Once he sort of- Ah, that's what I mean...
42:57
minus 200, yeah. It's low. It's low at minus 195. I agr- I mean, there's a long season to go. That's kinda why I just brought up the wide receiver thing. But I, I mean, the way he is- He does nothing wrong. Right. Right.
43:09
And, and I, I think last week was one of his most impressive games. Next. All right, Offensive Player of the Year.
43:14
Derrick Henry down to plus 160, Saquon plus 450, Justin Jefferson five to one, Ja'Marr Chase plus 950, and then we leap to 20 to one with CeeDee Lamb. This is interesting, 'cause Nico Collins was on track for this. Yeah.
43:29
And now with the injury, um, where is Nico? Is he even on there? I know, I was just looking for him. Where, I mean, where, he's not on the board even? 60 to one. 60 to one. Yep. Wow.
43:40
Um, that's more interesting than anything else to me right now. 60 to one for Nico Collins. He's not gonna be out forever. So that, I mean, Derrick Henry is, you know, justified. The man's ridiculous.
43:53
But right now, I would take a flyer on something long in this market. Yeah. By the way, Jaden Daniels 35 to one here as well. That's- Mm-hmm... add, add that to the mix. Mm-hmm.
44:03
The, um, yeah, I'm with, I think I, I think I'd either be looking top of the board here or long. Like, I think it's a good chance it's Henry or Barkley that wins this, but- Well, well, let's talk about this.
44:13
He, w- Aaron Schatz is one guy with one vote. Let's say the rest of the voters or, or n- or a majority of the voters don't adhere to his whole thing of, "Well, Offensive Player of the Year has to be a non-quarterback."
44:23
If that's the case, Josh Allen at 30 to one? Yeah, no, I, I like it. I like it. Because, because can Josh Allen have as good a year as he's having, and if he doesn't win MVP, go award-less? That would be kind of a crime.
44:36
I mean, I would freak out. And right now, is there, like, is, is Derrick Henry that sexy of an Offensive Player of the Year pick? I mean, he's, he's been cruising the last few weeks. Yeah. It's, it's not sexy though.
44:47
You're right. He's just doing his job. How's Puka Nacua doing in this? I, I missed- [laughs]... I missed that whole thing. Where is that guy? Uh, we'll get to more of this. We'll talk baseball on the other side.
44:56
Will Hill with all his bets next.
A Numbers Game
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