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Oct 16, 2024
A Numbers Game | October 16, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | October 16, 2024 | Hour 2
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:34
Now we're number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Thanks for taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. That is Kelly Midland.
0:44
Still to come this hour, Tyler Shoemaker joins us. I like when Tyler comes on. Talk some WNBA championship series with us. Let's go Liberty. Uh, Liberty, Lynx. Tyler's got thoughts on that.
0:55
He's also got some college football thoughts as well. Jason Weingarten from Under A Cloud of Smoke as well. Uh, we will do some of that. A little golf a little later on. You wanna talk a little golf?
1:03
I got a few golf bets. A few golf bets. Uh-huh. And, uh, teaser's coming up momentarily. I just want to, uh... Well, I also wanna get Kelly's, uh, chiming in on, on NBA season wins.
1:11
I just wanna say this about the, uh, hear the Tom Brady news of the day. Seth, uh, Wickersham at ESPN reporting Tom, Tom Brady was approved for minority ownership of the, uh, of the Las Vegas Raiders.
1:22
And ESPN's Seth Wickersham reporting, which I feel is, and then everybody's sort of talking about this this morning like, "Oh my God, what's this gonna do to Tom Brady as a broadcaster?" And I just [laughs]
1:33
for- Oh, gosh... here's what, here's what- What? We're still being this critical over Tom Brady as a broadcaster? Here's, here's what Wickersham says.
1:39
"Brady will not be permitted in another team's facility," because of the ownership, right? Yeah. His stake in the Raiders. "He cannot witness team practices.
1:46
He cannot attend broadcast production meetings, either in person or virtually. He cannot publicly criticize game officials. He cannot publicly criticize other teams.
1:55
Brady will be subject to the NFL's gambling policy and he will also be the subject to the NFL's anti-tampering policy."
2:00
And I just wanna file this under this is the dumbest story of the day because did anybody w- has Tom Brady's brand, if there is a broadcasting brand, has his brand ever been killing other teams?
2:13
Like, w- is that what you're looking for from Tom Brady, like poignant criticism of other teams?
2:18
I mean, no, but as one of, if not the greatest quarterbacks of all time, I would like to hear him, uh, criticizing quarterback play and stuff. I- Well, no.
2:28
He will, he will absolutely tell you what players are suppo- what, what should have been done. Like, I don't think it rises to that level.
2:35
I don't think he's, he's unable to say, "Oh, what you were looking for here was the receiver was supposed to do this, the quarterback was supposed to do this. It was not an A+, p- a pass," right?
2:44
He, he can, he can say that. He just can't go after people, right? Then- Yeah, yeah. I just- And that's what you're looking for for Brady is that kind of commentary.
2:54
I hear what you're saying, and I know that they were... This was all being discussed when the, when the ownership deal was being struck.
3:00
Now that you've actually read through everything that he can't do though, it does feel a little ridiculous that he's broadcasting games. He signed a 10-year, $375 million deal with Fox to broadcast in 2022.
3:14
$375 million, and what people are pointing at is now by the minority ownership stake, he is essentially, he's got his $375 million and now has done something that, geniously in some people's opinions [laughs], has now prevented him from doing his job that will earn him $375 million.
3:31
Right. Yeah. Yes. Sorry. I mean, that's exactly that. Sorry. Can't criticize. I don't... I mean- I think it's a lot a- about nothing. I've never been a part of a game, game day broadcast team.
3:41
Just the idea though of him not being able to show up to a production meeting blows my mind. Like, that is... I, I mean, Gil sets those up every single day here. How, how could you possibly miss one of those?
3:53
Production meeting? Yeah. [laughs] I know. No, like seriously, for those game day ones- Yeah... like, those guys have to be a part of that. I have perfect attendance at ours. All right.
4:00
And- I want Ph- I want Felika's thoughts on this W- uh, when we have him on on Friday. It's Tom Brady. What are you... You're look- uh, you're not looking for him to go nuts on somebody.
4:09
That's not hi- that's not Tom Brady. I just want, like, in a non-Tony Romo kind of way, I want Tom Brady to tell me, "You know what?
4:17
Uh, all these other announcers are saying that that was just this great genius play by the quarterback." I want Tom Brady to be able to tell me, "That's an incorrect analysis.
4:26
The quarterback should have known pre-snap not to have even run that play."
4:30
Yeah, this is gonna be, this is gonna be, uh, i- if people are still criticizing his performance in the booth, this is gonna become a you gotta hold two thoughts in your head at the same time- Yeah...
4:39
situation with Tom Brady, where like you can't be killing the guy- No... if he actually has built-in limitations on what he can do. Uh, we're saying two different things, but yes. Yeah, right. Yeah, yeah. Okay.
4:49
I, I still think he's great. I think he's great at so far. I know a lot of people have f- didn't think he's, haven't thought he's that great so far, but I think he's been wonderful.
4:55
Um, okay, before we get to Caesars, NB- your favorite NBA season win totals real quick. Yeah. Um, I went, uh, highs and lows here. We talked about this one, uh, a while back, but Thunder, I'm in on the over.
5:07
This team, you add two, two, uh, players that finished top five in def- uh, defensive EPM, estimated plus minus, uh, last season with them b- bringing Caruso and Hardenstein over. I think that helps.
5:19
I- the perimeter defense that the Thunder are gonna be able to put on the court at any time is unlike anything we've seen in the NBA in a while, in my opinion.
5:28
And now you, uh, add some depth at the, with the bigs with Hardenstein. I think this team is going to be very, very good this year, the best team in the Western Conference to me. I played over fif- 56 and a half.
5:38
I played an alt over 59 and a half win, uh, wins at plus 205. I think there is a very good chance we are talking about a 60-plus win team here. Hornets, we already discussed. I'm with JVT on them as well.
5:49
I think that these pieces, as they continue to grow, we are going to see a very successful Hornets team, uh, in the Eastern Conference.
5:56
I don't know if they're gonna be flirting with a playoff spot, Gil, but I think they're gonna be in that play-in discussion, um, right there, as long as LaMelo Ball stay h- stays healthy. It's all that.
6:05
And then the Nets The Nets might not look terrible on paper right now when you look at their depth chart, but they've got, they are, they are the perfect example team, Gil, of, "Oh man, there's about four pieces on there that teams near the trade deadline will be very, very interested in acquiring to make a championship run."
6:23
So season might start off okay for them. I think it's gonna get real bad as they go into the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes here at the end of the season. Wow, so you are, you and JBT are aligned.
6:32
You love the Thunder even more than he does perhaps. Mm-hmm. Um, you're also over on the Hornets, and you went on the w- on the lowest line- That's right... season win total team, you went under. Yeah.
6:41
This is what I was getting at before. Yeah. Uh, you have under on the Nets at 19 and a half. Just by comparison, last year the Wizards ended up 15 and 67, and the Pistons ended up 14 and 68.
6:55
So it certainly wouldn't be unprecedented here in modern day, because there are bad teams. But, um, yeah, that's, like you almo- you have to be so bad- Oh... to be that bad.
7:04
I, I think they're, I think they're that bad, Gil. Yeah. I think they're gonna be that bad. And but it, it was, that's where I loved your question earlier.
7:10
'Cause usually I'm looking at those, you know, twen- high 20s to kinda mid-40 win totals. Right. Those are the first ones I look at.
7:17
And last year I was loaded up on a bunch of those alts, um, and, and did pretty well with them. This year just not as mu- not as much love, love for some of these win totals. Yeah.
7:27
I mean, and, and that's again, that's what happened in baseball where, you know, the last couple years people know we prefer Rangers and Padres, and that's right in the middle.
7:34
But it's the, the couple years before that, the, the chasm between the haves and the have-nots grow- grew so drama- grew so dramatically that you could actually, and I only lived on the fringes where I was over on the overs and under on the unders.
7:47
Yeah. Um, so. And, and what happens in the NBA and NFL, the draft matters that much, right? Yeah. Like Cooper Flagg out there this year, it is going to encourage some of these bad teams to be very bad.
7:56
Which brings us to teaser time in the NFL. It's teaser time. [rock music] There you go. There's our intro. Love Ryan doing that. [laughs] All right, so you, uh, we have a lot of Wongers.
8:08
Ryan's all over the place these days. Lot of Wong options here. Yeah, we do. Um, starting Thursday night, I'll just roll through these for you 'cause there are, there's a lot of options this week.
8:16
Saints catching two and a half, home against the Broncos, okay? Uh, Lions two and a half at the Vikings.
8:25
Bills, okay, the eight and a halves might be disappearing, but I wanted to put it down there 'cause there are, uh, uh, a couple shops still with eight and a half up, and this is, would be the, this is like teaser leg of the year number five for me, which I think would be like, or like one in four so far.
8:38
We're one and three so far at best. Uh, Commanders laying seven and a half home against Panthers. Chiefs catching one and a half at the Niners.
8:46
Steelers catching one and a half home against the Jets, and Cardinals catching two and a half home against the Chargers. Let me define this once again.
8:53
I shouldn't assume that everybody knows what we're talking about, 'cause there's always new listeners.
8:57
Um, but Stanford Wong, a pseudonym for John Ferguson, who lived in southern California, he wrote the, uh, the book, uh, on this, if you will, not just figuratively but literally as well, where he identified the, the most profitable, the most plus EV teaser legs betting the National Football League.
9:14
Home favorites of between seven and a half and eight and a half tease down through the seven and the three, and then home and road, uh, both, both favorites and dogs of between one and a half and two and a half tease up through the three and the seven.
9:27
Notice that we are not talking about road favorites of between seven and a half and eight and a half, just the home favorites of between seven and a half and eight and a half.
9:35
But yes, dogs or favorites between one and a half and two and a half teased up through the three to the seven. So three different options. These are all total dependent. The higher the total, the less those are plus EV.
9:47
Makes sense, right? The value of every point is that much less, so the lower the totals, the more that this manifests.
9:53
And obviously with the way that teams play two-point conversions now, there's a little bit of difference as well.
9:59
But for generally for our purposes, that's what we're talking about, the ability to go through the seven and the three, or the three and the seven in the opposite direction for three different legs.
10:09
This, that's why all of these qualify. Now for me, if you're, again, you're asking what are my two favorites here. Mm-hmm. I can tell you one for sure, and that's the Lions.
10:18
Teasing the Lions up through the three and the seven against the Vikings, I have the Lions straight, so it only follows that I would have the Lions in a teaser leg.
10:26
Based on my teaser performance this past season so far, or the, or this entirety of this season thus far, God help you Detroit Lions. [laughs] Um, with these teaser legs. But no, uh, the Lions for me are the one.
10:37
Uh, you've given me the ability to get through the three and the seven with them at the Vikings. I don't think home field matters, quite frankly. I will do that even without Aidan Hutchinson.
10:47
What I would pair it with is a little more difficult, um, but dare I say I would do so with either the Bills or the Commodores, he says cautiously. Yeah. I'm, I'm- I like the Bills. I will say the Commodores. Okay.
11:03
Which I think is completely understandable. Uh, they have been great. You expect that game to be a track meet. Uh, can the Commanders just basically win the game? Yeah. Um, I've got a Bills-Lions one already.
11:15
If I can add to that, I might. I will say I think the other leg that's pretty interesting to me, um, like you and I are on the Niners. I'm just gonna, I'm just gonna bring it up again, right?
11:26
I, I was just gonna say this. I, uh, I would, if you wanted to take the Chiefs, no problem. How, how could I possibly blame anybody for wanting to take Patrick Mahomes with over a touchdown?
11:35
But as someone who has the Niners, I'm not trying to thread that needle. No, me either. Me either. Yeah. Um, although I did think about it this morning, I'm not gonna lie. [laughs] Yeah.
11:44
Uh, when we were setting this up, I did think about it. The other team I'm interested in, Gil, I, it, this is an injury report one that I'm gonna have to monitor. Cardinals at home Monday night catching two and a half.
11:53
I just don't know if the Chargers can kinda blow them out. I don't want any part of Saints-Broncos, Steelers-Jets, or Cardinals-Chargers because any kind of outcome.
12:03
Like if you, if you came back to me and told me that the teams you would naturally tease on got blown out, I would not be shocked. Shoot. I just wouldn't be. I will come back with Jason Weingarten on the other side.
12:14
Baseball next.
12:16
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:33
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12:42
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12:56
Just wanna read a couple here because, uh, this one follows up on the JVT segment. Rockette Morton says, "Where can you find the Suns alternate win total of 55 plus wins at seven to one? I can't find it."
13:08
Um, the, the, the sort of quick answer is most books have alternate season win totals available now in the NBA, which is I guess the last few years- Yeah... it's been pretty rampant.
13:19
Um, but to your question, I, I guess what you're asking is, 'cause the Suns season win total is around 47, have you found one that got all the way to 55? Yeah. We should probably ask JVT about that.
13:29
So, so, like if you go- Yeah... I'm just gonna use DraftKings as an example, but most of the East Coast books have it set up this way.
13:34
You have, you have the win totals, the alt win totals, and then you have the index markets where it's team to win, you know, 20-plus games. There you go. 25-plus games, 30-plus games.
13:43
So you can go- That's what you're looking for... on, on DraftKings, if you go to wins, wins/playoffs. Go to win X-plus games. You can go to 55 plus. You'll find the Suns there right now at six to one.
13:53
You are, you are not to be blamed. Some of this is not as easy to find as other stuff. Oh, yeah, not at all. Uh, Primetime Cowboys_Cubs1, he says, "Yo, I'm sorry, but if Joe Ferguson," first of all, it's John Ferguson.
14:05
"If Joe Ferguson," he says, former Buffalo Bills quarterback [laughs] "can call his teaser theory Stanford Wong, I shall from here forward have you refer to my tweets as Berkeley Bingers. No meaning.
14:15
I just wanna be difficult and unique." [laughs] There you go, Primetime. Yeah, I like it. You got it. From now on it's Berkeley Bingers.
14:20
Um, real quick before we get to Jason, Jason Weingarten's standing by to talk some baseball with us. So last night I was talking about the, uh, the Guardians and the Yankees, and the Yankees win that game six to three.
14:29
The Guardians committed two errors that led directly to Yankees runs, right from the first inning, and it kind of, for those of us who had the bar, uh, who, for those of us who had Cleveland last night, it was sorta like it, it was a tone-setter and you're like, "Oh, we're toast.
14:41
This is not gonna go well."
14:42
But, uh, then later in the game I mentioned the Yankees committed two blunders on the base paths, which their announcer, John Sterling, uh, and [laughs] he was doing it, he goes, "That's the Yankees.
14:51
They're like drunks on the base paths," he said yesterday. But Parles, Jeffrey Parle, Grover Cleveland of Producers, um, Producers number five and eight, he texts me, he goes, "Man, what a tootblan." What?
15:03
T-O-O-T-B-L-A-N. When, I can't remember if he did it after Chisholm or after Rizzo got thrown out on, on the bases. Okay. And I'm like, a tootblan?
15:12
So I Googled it, 'cause I think I, that's no baseball term I've never heard of, right? So I Google it, tootblan. I would immediately think typo, too. No, acronym. I knew Parles knew what he was talking about.
15:23
Thrown out on the bases like a nincompoop. This is a thing, okay? Which- Who, who's used the word nincompoop in the past, like, 37 years? Well, apparently Cubs blogger Tony Jewell did in 2008.
15:36
He created that term, a tootblan, thrown out on the bases like a nim- like a nincompoop.
15:41
Which of course then took me down this rabbit hole while this game was dragging along of other baseball ridiculous acronyms that people use, one of which was NOBLE Tiger.
15:53
NOBLE Tiger, no outs, bases loaded, ending with team incapable of getting easy run. [laughs] And then my personal favorite, fart slam. [laughs] Fielder allows runner to score like a moron.
16:07
[laughs] Tootblan last night- Oh, all right... by the Yankees. Twice. Tootblans. Ladies and gentlemen, he's no tootblan.
16:13
It's Jason Weingarten from under a cloud of smoke, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, somewhere in southern Cali talking some baseball with us. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. How's it going? Very good.
16:22
Have you heard any of those terms before? I have. I've heard tootblan before. I mean, that's like a FanGraphs thing. Tootblan? Yeah. Yeah, I was unfamiliar. Jason seems very excited by it all.
16:33
Um- Official FanGraphs stat. [laughs] Yeah. Jason, who you got today? It's the Mets and the Dodgers. The, uh, the Dodgers are minus 115 favorite, it's, uh, favorites. It's Bueller against Severino, game three.
16:43
One of these teams try to take a two to one lead. I bet the Dodgers, probably not particularly spreads there. Uh, they were actually minus 102 overnight. The, the Mets were a slight favorite.
16:55
I think it was, like, minus 102, minus 108, and I was like, "All right. Sure, you can give me the Dodgers as a dog. I'll take it." Well, not as a dog, but you know. Yeah. Minus 102. Uh,
17:06
it's really weird, you know, sort of reading all the, all the media stuff with the Dodgers. Dodgers are so great and then they lose one game and the sky's falling again.
17:15
Um, I, I don't necessarily get the, the idea they had in game two to kind of punt, throw all their bad arms, but the five-game series now, I think Dodgers are still gonna end up in the World Series.
17:27
I think we get the Dodgers Yankees matchup that everybody wants to see. Yeah. You, so you, no concerns about Bueller today? I mean, sure, but he's, he's been pitching for the last couple weeks.
17:39
You know, regular season they, they were preparing him for this situation. He's not a bad pitcher. He's coming off Tommy John, maybe he's just not 100% yet, but Dodgers are confident to put him in the position.
17:51
They're not a stupid organization. They don't put players in positions where they can't succeed, especially in playoff games. So no, I'm not, I'm not particularly worried. Yeah.
17:59
You, you made it clear last time that you are not a Dodgers fan, but you respect the Dodgers.
18:02
And, and one of the things that I thought you, was interesting that you brought up off air, 'cause obviously the Dodgers tied this amazing post-season record, 33 straight innings without allowing a run in the post-season.
18:14
Again, that, uh, matched the 1966 Baltimore Orioles for that record. But you were saying that in and of itself is not the most impressive thing about it. What was? Do you remember what you said?
18:25
It was that the, the bullpen management in the Padres series, Dave Roberts didn't have his relievers face the same batter twice the entire series. Sounds unbelievable, but that was some, you know, A+ management there.
18:38
Was it twice or three times? No, twice. I don't think any- Twice. Wow... I don't think any position player faced the same Dodgers reliever twice the entire Padres series.
18:48
'Cause you can't, you know, you don't get extra looks at a guy if you do that, so it's, it's really beneficial.
18:54
Right, and you believe that that crime, crime in quotes, would be worse than letting, within the s- w- would, would be worse than letting a batter see that pitcher multiple times in the same game, you were saying?
19:07
Uh, no, the... Well, there's the three times through the order penalty that we talk about a lot. Mm-hmm.
19:11
You see a lot of relieve- or you see a lot of starting pitchers aren't going three times through the order, now you're getting twice through the order max, you know.
19:18
Um, but the reality is, if you have a reliever three times in a five-game series or three times seven-game series, seeing, seeing a reliever three times is probably worse than the thr- third time through the order penalty.
19:30
Yeah. I'd agree with that. Okay. Um, just because of the arsenal and their skill level and all that. Uh, okay, so let's, let's move on to these...
19:38
So you got the g- you got the Dodgers today, so I'm assuming, uh, you know, would you... Well, I shouldn't assume.
19:42
Would you play the Dodgers then on the adjusted series price that currently exists, which is right around- Would it be like -150 or something? -155-ish, yeah. It's a little shorter than the pregame line.
19:53
I mean, if, if like you have huge amounts of credit or something and you can play it and you wanna play it and get more Dodgers exposure, sure. If you're gonna run out and bet it, you know, at the window,
20:04
not necessarily. You know, depending on the size of your bankroll and how much you, you know, exposure you want to the Dodgers. But, um, I, I do think Dodgers are gonna win.
20:14
I don't think the series price should be shorter than it was in game one. Um, you know, I, I really do think Dodgers are the better team here.
20:22
I, I just can't wrap my head around why they punted game two like that, but, you know- Well, it-... they're a smart organization. Yeah.
20:28
It's, it's shorter for the only reason that instead of it being a best of seven, now it's a de facto best of five, right? So that's why it's incrementally shorter, uh, in a one-to-one series.
20:37
Um, what is your thoughts on the ALCS? Again, we don't have a matchup yet for tomorrow. Uh, we do, by the way, in the NL.
20:44
Let, let's get your thoughts first of all, since we're still on the Dodgers, let me get your thoughts on Yamamoto versus Quintana. I would imagine you think that's a big mismatch in favor of the Dodgers.
20:54
Yeah, I love Yamamoto. You know, they paid him $300 million. He's, he's an ace. It hasn't, hasn't been a perfect first season in MLB for him, but he's done well.
21:04
I think they know his strengths and his limitations, and they'll put him in a position to succeed in, uh, in game four.
21:11
It wouldn't surprise me if, you know, if, if Dodgers don't come back, uh, with two, two wins in the next three games, I'd be really surprised. Do the Guardians have any legit shot in your opinion? No.
21:23
Um, I mean, they're down 2-0. I've watched parts of, of the first two games. I don't see much there.
21:28
I'm just, like I told you last week, I, I think we're really fortunate that we at least got the Guardians in this situation because as good as the Tigers story has been, as good as the Royals story has been, those teams are completely overmatched in the playoffs, and nobody benefits from watching them, you know, take on the Yankees and get destroyed.
21:46
Yeah. This is, this is more of a touchy-feely question than anything quantifiable, but did, did the Guardians look like the stage was too big for them at Yankee Stadium to, to you at all? S- I don't know.
21:56
I mean, I think, I think you're seeing the limitations of the trying to, to get by with less approach in baseball and, you know, sometimes you take a good team against a, an expensive team and the, the team with the money is, is gonna win.
22:11
Why? 'Cause at the end of the day, they have superstars. They have Aaron Judge, they have Juan Soto, they have Gerrit Cole.
22:18
None of, you know, I guess Jose Ramirez kind of fits in there, but the, uh, the, the Guardians brought a knife to a gunfight sort of deal here. Yeah, and I, I, I don't, you know, I disagree with folks.
22:28
P- folks were mad at Steven Vogt last night for, for making the move.
22:31
Uh, Bibee only got through four outs in the whole game, and then they had to go to Cade Smith 'cause it was, they had to keep the score limited at that point, and they were able to limit it to three to nothing, eventually got it to three to two.
22:42
So I don't, I, I think he ha- he did what he had to do in the moment managerially, uh, wise, manager-wise, I should say, managing the game. Uh, let me just ask you this on the way out, 10-second answer.
22:52
Dodgers-Yankees then. Give me the final result of that series. How many games to how many games in favor of who? Uh, it's probably going six to seven. I think the Dodgers take it in the end.
23:02
They're still the best team in baseball. It's gonna be a, hopefully a great World Series. I'm already saving money for my tickets. There you go. Saving money for his tickets. Jason Weingarten. Thank you, Jason.
23:13
Appreciate it. Uh, we'll come back to- Good luck... Tyler Shoemaker on the WNBA and college football next right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:21
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circuit Gill Alexander, Kelly Fidlin in the hizzy.
23:39
Before we get to, uh, Tyler Shoemaker to talk WNBA and, uh, college football, just wanna read this one. Tim Lawson points this out to me, Tim Lawson from the, from Betters Life.
23:48
Uh, Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, which by the way, we will do some election betting coverage coming up here on the show here in the coming weeks.
23:55
Um, but also of course the, uh, founder from a, uh, sports betting, or not sports betting, but from a sports analytics standpoint of Lakota, among other things, uh, for Major League Baseball hardos, stat heads, nerd balls, whatever you wanna call them.
24:08
[laughs] Uh, Nate Silver chiming in, and he says, "Why are the DC sports franchises so weird? Wizards/Commanders/Nationals/Capitals, all of these brands are punching below their weight, except maybe the Caps."
24:22
He said, "If DC had cool sports teams, it would be a radically improved city. It's the worst sports town in America." Wow. Oh-ho. Yeah, man, you might be right. I hate to say it. Was that, was that a text to you?
24:33
Uh, well, no, this is, yeah, Tim Lawson texting me what Silver tweeted. Okay. Okay. Yeah, he tweeted this. Um- Listen, we could have this, this... That's a sports talk radio debate, who's the worst sports town?
24:44
Atlanta, I see you. Um, there's a lot that could raise their hand. DC has always been a skins- Miami. Yeah, DC has always been a skins town. It is not a sports town, right? It is not Boston. It is not Philly.
24:55
It is not New York. It's always been a football town for, for a professional sports town standpoint. Mm-hmm. Um, mostly culturally it's a basketball city.
25:05
Um, but from a, from a sta- from a fan standpoint, it's just a skins town. Um, it's never been more than that.
25:10
The Caps, yes, they won a cup and people went crazy, and there is a, you know, there is a, a sort of, you know, contained passion for that, but it's not really a sports town in the same way.
25:20
Are they the worst sports town? Might be. As far as, like, having four major sports represented- Yeah... and sucking across the board. Sorry, Commanders, I know you're good now. But I'm just saying.
25:31
Well, that's- Kind of. That's why I always bring up Miami, too. 'Cause it's the, okay, the Dolphins always bi- It's a big football town.
25:37
The Dolphins were big when Marino's around, but the problem is you go to a Dolphins game these days and if they're playing the Jets, half the stadium's full of Jets, uh, fans that are there.
25:45
Tip of the cap to Miami Heat, I think they're the best-run organization in South Florida, but it's [laughs] it's really s- it, it's really hard to compare, or easy to compare them and say that when you compare them to the Marlins and Panthers.
25:55
Yeah. And again, I don't want Caps fans coming after me saying, "Oh, we don't suck." I know you don't suck, but you get the idea of what I'm talking about. Just in terms of collective year-to-year success- Right...
26:04
for those four franchises, uh, it hasn't been good, um, since the Skins were winning three Super Bowls back in the day. Have I mentioned that on this show ever before?
26:13
[laughs] Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's a big pro- a big, uh, component of what we do at vsin.com. Big contributor across multi-sports, uh, including the WNBA and of course college football. He joins us now.
26:25
Tyler Shoemaker, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at tshoeindex. Love that. Going Miami Vice on us once again. He got orange with the, with the blazer on this time.
26:36
How you doing, Tyler? What's happening, man? I try to mix it up for you guys. You know, the, the Ohio State, uh, attire I had on last week obviously did not work out.
26:44
That game did not go as, as [laughs] planned, so I thought I'd mix it up a little bit with the orange today. By the way, what was your reaction to the end of that game?
26:50
Dan Lanning saying afterwards he, he did it intentionally, put 12 men on the field in the second to last play. And again, that's sort of a, something we've talked about on this show many times.
27:01
Not in that context, but in the sort of if a team is backed up on their goal line and it's the end of a half, you should just keep committing penalties because the clock goes down.
27:11
It's considered a live ball foul, so they don't restore the clock.
27:15
So Dan Lanning puts 12 defenders on the field in the second to last play, what ends up being the second to last play, preventing Ohio State from making a big play, in other words.
27:23
They're left with six seconds and then Will Howard has the, uh, you know, the, the, the late slide, if you will. Um, what did you think about that sequence at the end? That was, that was tough to watch.
27:34
I mean, you can't blame Dan Lanning for- No... just playing within the rules. I mean, he, he found- Free move... a loophole in the rule, he, he executed it. I thought it was, I thought it was very smart on his part.
27:44
Now, I would quibble with why that's, you know, part of the rules to begin with, and I, I think there's been some discussion this week about that, uh, with, with maybe changing that rule.
27:53
But, you know, it was part of the rules. He, he worked within, [laughs] within the rules, so, you know, you gotta tip your cap to him. That was a, a very smart situational play.
28:01
Uh, I definitely wonder why Ohio State did not try to stop the clock or move a little bit faster there on that, on that last drive. They still had a timeout left.
28:10
I know they were trying to save that for the potential game-winning field goal, but man, that was, that was tough to watch. It w- it was the, uh, w- And I'm with you on Dan Lanning.
28:17
I say that not in any way disparagingly. Good for him for, for sort of exploiting a loophole. I'm all about that for coaches.
28:24
Um, again, you wanna consider it a live ball foul, then that's what it is and you can't restore the clock. Um, okay, let me, let's, let's get to this week in college football.
28:32
Before we get to your picks, let's talk about the two more key match-ups, and let's start with Alabama and Tennessee. Your thoughts on this one.
28:41
This, uh, this game I think has lost a, a little bit of luster, obviously, from where it might have been three, four weeks ago. You know, Alabama was coming off the Georgia win.
28:50
Everybody's, you know, everybody's undefeated and, and feeling good about themselves, and then Tennessee lose, loses to Arkansas. Alabama has another close call with South Carolina.
28:59
Uh, you know, my numbers are, are right at the market here. I've got Alabama minus three. However, I do think I would lean Tennessee here if I had to make a play.
29:08
I'm not personally betting this one yet, uh, at, at the current number, but I think I would lean Tennessee here.
29:14
Um, you know, a lot of the, a lot of the formulas that I, that I look at actually have Tennessee favored here.
29:19
So, you know, and it is in, in Knoxville, so I, I think I would lean Tennessee, but man, th- this game, this game doesn't quite have as much juice as it, as it once did because these teams have, have not looked great here over the last couple of weeks.
29:31
Right. Though, even with a 12 team playoff, you get your second loss at this point in the season, then it, then it does become a little dicey in theory, one would, one would suspect.
29:40
Um, what about, what about, of course, the, the bigger one, Georgia and Texas? Yeah, this one I actually do have, have kind of stronger opinions on. I, I already bet Texas minus three and a half here.
29:50
My numbers are at six and a half.
29:52
I think, you know, basically you, you show me your power number on this game and I'll tell you how much weight you're putting on pre-season priors, because if you're looking at what's happened on the field primarily, uh, I mean, it's all Texas here.
30:04
There's nothing that Georgia's done on the field since, since week one against Clemson, uh, that, that indicates they should be within a touchdown of, of this Texas team. So I, I bet Texas minus three.
30:14
I really like the Longhorns here. You like the Longhorns, okay. Going with Texas. Uh, what else did you bet? Yeah, I like, uh, Memphis North Texas under, uh, 66 and a half.
30:25
Uh, th- this is obviously just a, a numbers play for me. I, my number's more, uh, around 63, and totals that are 64 and above so far in college football this year are going under at about a 64% clip.
30:39
So, you know, it's just hard for college teams to execute well enough over the course of a game to, to hit that mark consistently. So from a numbers standpoint, I r- I really like the under in that game.
30:49
And then I also like, uh, Iowa against Michigan State. I think Iowa Out- outside of the Ohio State game, they've, their offense has looked much better this year.
30:58
I mean, even, even in the loss to Iowa State, uh, where they lost on a 54-yard field goal as time expired, Iowa's looked really good this year, and Michigan State just has not.
31:08
And, you know, one thing that I think you have to factor into a handicap here, Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles is very turnover prone, particularly in the red zone.
31:16
So he kills a lot of Michigan State drives by, by coughing the ball up in the red zone, and Iowa has a very opportunistic defense.
31:23
So, you know, I think I might try to find some sort of special teams or defensive touchdown prop here for Iowa and, you know, sprinkle something on that. Okay. Well, let's go to the WNBA.
31:33
Now, again, this is one of these things that while football, obviously college and pro, go on during the weekend, generally speaking, and then, uh, we have the baseball post-season in October during the week, the WNBA sort of gets lost in this.
31:45
And a lot of the loss that I'm talking about is because ESPN has the WB- WNBA contract. They don't have a football package on Sunday, so they throw the WNBA, you know, a game in Sunday.
31:59
And so none of us, like the average American sports fan who's betting on other things, it's not even on our radar.
32:05
So again, the classic, the sort of unbelievable comeback by the Lynx in game one, take a one to nothing lead in this series.
32:11
Obviously referees were involved, uh, according to, uh, some people's perspective in that as well. Not according to, they obviously were involved in controversial ways.
32:19
But an unbelievable comeback by the Lynx, coming back from 15 points down, uh, with five minutes left in this game to win it in overtime. The Liberty though, none of us were watching, right?
32:31
On Sunday, the game I'm referring to, game two, they come back and even up the best of five championship series at one game a piece. This is the last year where it will be a best of five.
32:39
Starting next year, the championship will be best of seven. So now they waited till tonight to play game three. Uh, Liberty favored by three and a half on the road at the Target Center in Minnesota. Total 160.5.
32:53
What are you looking to do here? Yeah. My numbers are, are pretty in line with the market here. I've got Liberty minus 2.5 with a total of 160, so not a ton of value here.
33:04
I will say one thing that, that was interesting to me when I dug into this game is the Liberty haven't played in Minnesota since May.
33:13
All the, all the previous five match-ups between these two teams have been in New York.
33:17
So I think, I think the Minnesota fans will, will probably be going crazy to have, have the team at home playing against, you know, arguably the most talented team in the league in the Liberty, who I have power rated number one.
33:27
I think if I had to make a play on this game, again, my numbers are very tight with the market, but if I had to make a play, I think I would go with the home team here. I would pick the Lynx plus three and a half.
33:36
Uh, these teams, when you average out the scores, uh, of their match-ups over the course of this year, it's like Liberty has like a one point per game advantage.
33:43
So these teams are very evenly matched, uh, in, in terms of how they've matched up over the course of this year. I think I would take the three and a half with the home dog. All right. And remember, this is a 2-2-1.
33:52
First two games were in New York. These two, three and four, will be in Minnesota, and game five, if necessary, back in New York. The Liberty and the Lynx. Tyler, thank you so much. Appreciate it, man. Yes, sir.
34:03
Thank you. @TShoeIndex. That's the letter T, the shoe, what you wear on your foot, index- Let's go Liberty... on Twitter. Oh, you're all about it. Kelly Tilghman involved as well.
34:16
We'll come back, a little golf on the other side. Right here on The Numbers Game, Vegas, the sports betting network.
34:20
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
34:38
Coming up top of the hour after The Numbers Game, Money Moves with Stormy Bonixton. Stormy will be with our buddy Matt Brown today. How about that? Matt Brown in the hizzy.
34:48
Noon to 2:00 Eastern, Stormy and Matt on Money Moves, followed by John Hanson on Prop Points. And that will be, uh, that will lead into Make It Rain with Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00 PM Eastern.
34:59
Money Moves, Prop Points, Make It Rain, your VSIN schedule here at VSIN, the sports betting network, coming up at the top of the hour after this little program.
35:06
I don't have the exact record in front of me, but, uh, Hanson crushed it with props this past weekend. Did he? Did he really? Yeah. Oh, yeah, like big time. Hey, man, we're here to make money. That's right. Let's do it.
35:18
Yeah. Okay. Uh, speaking of that, we have, you know, I, I was mentioning earlier... By the way, Aslan Karatsev does, uh, push to a third set against Shevchenko here in the morning.
35:27
Uh, we'll get to our All the Best Bets on the show here momentarily. But it's a weird time of year for the tennis calendar. It is an equally odd time for the golf calendar. Yeah.
35:36
Yeah, this, uh, this tournament here in Las Vegas, so, um, I guess means a little bit, uh, more to us. I, I, I've never been to it.
35:42
There were plans a year ago, but, uh, we went out to this park and did this whole, uh, field goal kicking challenge thing, and then I tore a muscle in my calf retrieving a punt. You did? And, uh- You did...
35:52
I had to go, I had to go home instead of go to the golf course. Was it diagnosed as a tear in the end? Yeah. [laughs] Oh, my God. [laughs] Straight up tear. Oh, geez. Straight up tear.
36:01
[laughs] Anyway, so Strider's Children's Open here, uh, in Las Vegas. This is, uh, another birdie fest. We get into this fall swing, and this is where, this is...
36:12
You kind of rolled your eyes right there, uh, Gill, or something. I caught that, didn't I? Yeah, yeah. You m- you, you made a look. This one's about as bad as it gets. We're talking sixth easiest course on tour.
36:21
Uh- Do we flirt with 30 here? Um, we might. Oh, my God. We, like, I, I mean, it depends on, like, win- Yeah... The only time this course has ever played tough is when there's been wind out here, which you can get.
36:31
We can get in Vegas. Yeah. There's no doubt about that. Yeah, very true. And that makes this much tougher. Um, but you, you're talking massive fairways when we talk fairway with massive, huge greens.
36:42
Some of the, two of the, uh, some of the biggest that you'll see on tour all season long. I mean, 7,400 square feet is absolutely massive for greens. Um, so it's gonna be pretty easy to hit fairways and to hit greens.
36:53
So it becomes a putting contest, uh, a little bit at the end. We have seen different guys off the tee distance a, a little bit of a premium here.
37:01
But because of the fairways, uh, being so wide, we've also seen shorter hitters find success too. So you gotta be hot with your irons this week. You gotta get hot with the putter. That's who's gonna win it.
37:12
Um, usually in these events for me, it's just pick a few outrights. Don't get too crazy with a bunch of other bets because these scores can so rapidly change, um, on that final Sunday. You will hear...
37:22
A- around the green play here is difficult, but here's the thing, we always like to explain this stuff, Gill. If around the green play is difficult, that is something to note.
37:30
Uh, chipping is very difficult at this course. But if they're gonna go 20 under- You can't be missing greens too often to have to be playing around the green.
37:39
So it's not really something I factor in, uh, much of with what I'm looking at stat-wise. Um- Oh, Tom Kim going for the three-peat. To- [laughs] Tom Kim going for the three-peat. He is the short shot here.
37:49
Um, absolutely we, uh, he deserves to be, uh, to be that with how he's played this course over the past couple years. Also, just the best player in the field, um, right now.
37:58
I went a little bit further down the board, uh, for my plays this week, just three outrights for me. Eric Cole, 35-1. Been a b- a bit of a rollercoaster season for Cole.
38:08
Um, but the, you know, what he really struggles at, Gil, is the accuracy off the tee, and now you're talking wider fairways. Should help his game out there. Um, one of the more class players in the field like him here.
38:19
Uh, did finish T3 at this course a season ago. So Eric Cole on thir- uh, 35-1. My boy Cam Davis, going back to him at 36-1. I, I believe I played him last year here as well. He finished T7.
38:32
Long layoff for Cam, so don't, not exactly positive what we're gonna be getting with him, but he's, i- i- he's got the game to fit this course very well. So a 36-1 ended up being a play for me. And then I'm back on J.J.
38:45
Spaun. He was a withdrawal a couple weeks ago, which really sucked. I, uh, had him then. But then he played in the tournament last week, played pretty well in Utah, T25.
38:55
Rates out as kind of the best player for me this week, so 45-1. I've seen 50-1s out there, uh, this week on him. He is number one on approach his last 24 rounds played in this, uh, in this field.
39:06
He is number, uh, number four in opportunities gains, which are birdie attempts within 15 feet, and fourth in birdies or better, um, which is a, just a pure scoring stat, and that's what you're gonna have to do this week.
39:16
So J.J. Spaun, Cam Davis, Eric Cole, my three outrights for the Shriners Children's Open. Let's call long shots. Let's call long shots. I didn't really roll my eyes, did I? Really? No, no, no, you didn't roll your eyes.
39:27
No, okay. I, I thought I, I thought I saw out of the side of my eye, though, a face from Gil when I said birdie f- uh, birdie fest. I'm like, "Oh, God, one of those." Another one of those, yeah.
39:34
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, which brings us to our best bets courtesy of gbank right here on The Numbers Game. Always appreciate that we can, uh, review these each and every day on the show.
39:43
Uh, gbank, the official bank of VSiN. Let us begin. Should I begin with my tennis? Yeah, begin with your tennis, yeah.
39:49
Uh, Marton Fucsovics, who is, uh, playing in Antwerp, Belgium on indoor hards, going up against, uh, Felix Auger-Aliassime, or as Kelly asked me on the break, "What's, uh, Fucsovics's first name? Alejandro?"
40:02
I'm like, "Uh, no, it's not. It's Marton Alejandro." Did I, did I spell it all right? You spelled it correctly. Yeah. It's beautiful. Look at you. I did this with, like, 20 seconds left in the break, yeah.
40:10
Yeah, Fucsovics, again, I got at +197 last night on, uh, vsin.com/picks. Again, all hosts, all guests, all sports, all picks for subscribers at vsin.com/picks. So we still have Fucsovics to go today.
40:23
Uh, +190 from Belgium. Indoor hard courts. It's that time of year. Uh, how about Tyler Shoemaker, who was just on with us? He's on Texas in the big game against Georgia. Texas laying the three is where he got it.
40:36
Memphis and North Texas, uh, he's on the under in that game. 66.5 is where that is lined, and he's on Iowa, uh, Iowa laying six. At Michigan State. Against Michigan State, yes.
40:47
Okay, JBT came on to talk NBA season win totals with us. He had a bunch of them. Nuggets under 51.5 wins. Hornets over 29.5 wins. Warriors also went over. Love that. Over 43.5 wins, and he took the Suns at 55-plus wins.
41:03
Did we drown- downgrade from 7-1 to 6-1 here, or is that what- He had 7-1. It's 6-1 out there right now. Oh, 6-1 now. Okay, cool. Yeah. Um, and then, uh, I believe Kelly Bitlan also had some best bets, did he not?
41:13
Yeah, just to, just to recap golf real quick. Yeah. He, uh, you know, NBA betting guide, check it out, vsin.com. Uh, that's got kind of all my NBA plays in there for the season, as well as most of JBT's, I believe.
41:22
Uh, and just, you know, re- uh, real quick, Eric Cole, Cameron Davis, J.J. Spaun, outright bets for me this week at the Shriners Children's Open.
41:29
Oh, I was actually referring to your NBA season wins, but I guess we don't, we're, we're not including those. Yeah, yeah, Thunder, uh, that is Thunder over and, and Alt over 59.5, Hornets over 29.5, and Nets under 19.
41:41
Get the NBA betting guide if you want all the stuff- That's right... for the NBA. Um, again, that is, uh, available as well for subscribers.
41:47
Uh, gbank, best bets of the day always brought to you by gbank, the official bank of VSiN.
41:52
The gbank Visa Signature card, your best bet, delivering 1% cash back rewards on eligible gaming transactions and 2% cash back rewards on all other eligible purchases. For more information, head to vsin.com/gbank.
42:03
That's V-S-I-N.com/gbank. Subject credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Did you catch, uh, last night, uh, there was a, uh, rando college football game. Again, watching baseball. Mm-hmm.
42:16
And Wishnev is, you know, texting about all these random college football games on, 'cause he's in-gaming them all, and we were sort of laughing 'cause he's like, "Troy's backup is better than their, than their, you know, starter."
42:25
He's going through all this stuff. Um, but, uh, Stevie Fezzik, our buddy, who is kind enough to come on Football Fridays with us to talk NFL, you know what he's...
42:34
T- to the Twitter generation, he is more f- he's more famous for two things. One, that he's not a very nice person on Twitter. Um, and two, that he is the author of the, uh, Purdue -4500. Right.
42:47
Uh, famously the number one seed that lost to a 16 seed in, uh, the first round of the college, uh, or the NCAA tournament a couple years ago, and, uh, lost that to, I believe it was Fairleigh Dickinson was the, uh, was the culprit.
43:00
And the thing about Stevie that I, I don't know if I'm... I almost have to respect it. Despite that embarrassment, he still leans into this stuff, these heavy money lines. Oh, yeah, yeah. Right? So again, he, he...
43:14
I, on the one hand, I respect it, right? Uh, maybe it's just that he lacks the gene that would give him any shame in any of this, [laughs] I guess.
43:21
[laughs] Uh, I don't know what it is, but last night he had Louisiana Tech. Oh. Not quite, not quite as big, obviously, as the Purdue money line, but still a hefty money line nonetheless. I wanna say it was, like, -450.
43:32
I might be selling him short on that. South Alabama? No, Louisiana Tech was, uh, playing, uh, New Mexico State, I believe it was, last night. Oh, there was two games. Oh.
43:39
Oh, yeah, there was a, there was a, there was more than one game last night. [laughs] And, uh, Louisiana Tech ends up losing. It's not Troy South Alabama.
43:44
By the way, he ends up lo- uh, I don't know how he lost it, but he ends up losing it in overtime. Um- Oh, no... they had a chance to win it in regulation.
43:51
I believe the final field goal try was blocked, and, uh, New Mexico State ends up winning it in overtime. So Louisiana Tech, another big money line for, uh, Stevie, goes down by the wayside.
44:01
But now he will sit here and say this, right? This will make most of our listeners, the newer bettors, heads explode.
44:07
He believes when he's betting those lofty money lines, this is not for everybody, it's certainly not for, for new time bettors, I would say, for new bettors.
44:15
But he, from his mathematical actuarial standpoint, believes that those are plus EV bets. Right. And so that's why he keeps firing on them. And, uh, listen, I don't know why he needs to make them public, but- [laughs]
44:27
Yeah, I think that would be- He might wanna keep them to himself sometimes when they go down. Yeah. I mean, I, look, I think a lot of people would struggle psychologically getting past losses like that. Yeah.
44:34
But for someone like Steve, where- Wow... he sees value, he's gonna bet value, and it's- Yeah... just, it's a different, different extremes of where we're talking bettors are at.
44:42
So I, no surprise to me that Steve's g- he keeps going back to the well with those. [laughs] Yep. All right, remind everybody what are your WNBA positions again.
44:48
Well, I, I just bet the series price heavy after that game one loss. Okay. So let's go Liberty. Let's go Liberty. It's all about the Liberty. Way heavier than I thought I'd- Let's go Fucsovics.
44:57
Um, if you're a Mets fan, let's go Mets. I know it's been a while for you guys. Uh, we've done all we can do. Thanks for listening. Stormy is next with Matt Brown.
45:06
Money Moves right here at VS, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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