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Oct 1, 2024
A Numbers Game | October 1, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | October 1, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:32
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Harry, thank you the same, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside as well.
0:19
Still to come this hour, Paul Spohrer from FanGraphs, all of his, uh, takes and bets on the four Major League Baseball Wild Card series. What a great three days.
0:30
Quadruple headers in baseball, if necessary, by the way, for, uh, Thursday, but, uh, certainly a quadruple header today- quadruple headers today and tomorrow.
0:39
Uh, we'll get to Will Hill who's standing by here momentarily. We got tweets at Beating The Book. This is from, uh, Joe Abraham, 1010, "Great take on Rose in the Hall of Fame.
0:47
He is not in because he was the opposite of erudite and wouldn't kiss the ring. Screw the commissioners and the holier-than-thou baseball writers."
0:56
This is from 702SteveSports, "A person I know works in the memorabilia biz." That's the memorabilia biz. "He was at an event signing merch on Sunday with other members of the Big Red Machine the day before he passed.
1:06
Charlie hustled on and off the field. 100% agree the Hall of Fame is a joke without Rose, Bonds, Clemens, et cetera." Uh, Doug Boyle119444, "Agree with you 100% on Pete Rose and Bonds being in the Hall of Fame.
1:18
Shameful." Uh, this from, boop-a-doo, doop-a-doo, Brian Schaefer, "Gil, Bonds didn't take steroids? His neck went five times the size from the Pirates to the Giants. Stevie Wonder could see that."
1:29
Did I ever say he didn't take steroids, Brian? Why, why do you act like I said that? "But still, he has to hit the baseball, which he did well and should be in the Hall of Fame." Yes, this is my point.
1:38
The ball went off the bat of both Barry Bonds and Pete Rose, Barry Bonds to the tune of 762 homers and Pete Rose to the tune of 4,256 hits. It actually happened. Ball hit bat, those things happened. Uh, and then Htown88.
1:51
Oh, there you go, Htown88. [laughs] I knew A- I knew I'd get a tweet from Htown. Eduardo says, "Love to, Gil loves to bet against the Astros. When will you all learn? The Astros are inevitable."
2:02
Ah, a little cockiness from Houston. This is from, uh, let's see, from John Blum. He says, "Pure Plinko last night. Had both the over and the Titans and Pollard anytime touchdown in a parlay. Wow.
2:13
Stopped watching after the sta- after the safety figuring both were toast. Didn't realize I was gonna get some Fezzik luck box." You're 100% right about that.
2:21
Uh, Steven @brosek, uh, 1870 says, "When are you giving out your monthly most to win bets for the NFL, NBA, and NHL? NHL starts on the 4th."
2:30
Uh, by the way, the, uh, split on the Mets and the Braves yesterday means that the Tigers won the best record in September, had the Mets sweeped, uh, sweeped.
2:38
If they had swept, the Mets would've won September, so the Tigers, I don't know if the Tigers are aware of this, but they are September champs. I'm sure they're popping the champagne.
2:46
And then JasonH11 said, "I came on in the middle of the show and thought something happened to the band Phish." Samuel Sierra, "Sad we lose two sports icons on the same day. RIP."
2:56
I think he was making a joke about Roger and, uh, uh, Drew's two fish, but, but we did lose, but we did actually lose two sports icons on the same day. Very different men, for sure, in Dikembe and Pete Rose.
3:07
Uh, Will Hill joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line. You can follow him on Twitter @NotTheWillHill.
3:11
He's the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast and, of course, a regular on Chris Velika's Bear Bets podcast and the Beating The Book Mega Pod, which is a good little podcast that I'm aware of. How you doing, Will?
3:24
Gilly, what's going on? Appreciate you having me on.
3:26
Before we get to the picks, I did wanna point out that, uh, four and one last week on a Numbers Game, I appreciate you letting me use that record as a proxy for the Mega Pod.
3:34
I didn't even know you could do that, but- [laughs]... apparently you can, so that, that's very generous. That is not allowed.
3:40
Your Mega Pod record is your Mega Pod record, and what was that on the Mega Pod, Will, this week? Yeah, so, uh, fun day here.
3:47
[laughs] Uh, lot of playoff baseball, a lot to get to, and I will say qui- just quickly on Pete Rose, I wish he was in. He deserves to be in. He did kinda do this to himself. I mean, he agreed to lifetime bans.
3:56
He just kept lying and doubling down and lying again, so- Yes... it's a bummer. You wish he could've been alive to see it, but boy, he, he's got a, a, a lot to bla- you know, he, he can blame himself for a lot of this.
4:05
There is no question. There is no question that all of that is true. No one is arguing otherwise. He still should be in the Hall of Fame. I agree. Um, okay.
4:13
What, uh, let, let's get to your thoughts on today, 'cause I know you have another football bet that is pretty interesting to me. Um, but let's talk about the Wild Card Series and game ones.
4:24
I believe you're supposed to say games one, but that's awkward. What about the series themselves? Any plays? Oof. Have you recovered from yesterday yet? Ooh. I am still kind of beaming, glowing.
4:33
I mean, there's not that many days anymore, just as sports fans, where your phone is blowing up with texts about a baseball game, a regular-season baseball game. That was just so much fun.
4:42
We were all watching the same thing at the same time, and it was just such a special event, and I've talked about this before.
4:47
It, it wasn't a game 163, a tiebreaker, but it felt like that, and it just illustrates how stupid baseball is for getting rid of those because, I mean, you just don't get those days anymore. It was just so much fun.
4:57
Hopefully, that's a precursor for what's to come. Uh, my favorite bet in terms of the series, I think the Mets carry it over. I don't love the Brewers pitching.
5:05
The Central teams, both in the AL and the NL, never seem to carry it over to the postseason. I think the Mets, this is a house money season for them, and they've-- I, I watch them a lot.
5:14
They've had a lot of wins like they had yesterday. There's just, they have, personally, they've got a really good lineup. Can't imagine Diaz would be available today.
5:21
Remember, he pitched Sunday in a five-run game, then threw 40 pitches yesterday. Probably give him a breather.
5:26
Not that, you know, we're all dying [laughs] to see Diaz after yesterday and, you know, what he put us through. But, uh, I just think this, th- this Mets team has a really good lineup. You can get them at plus money.
5:34
Brewers have not really proven themselves in the playoffs.
5:36
You're gonna throw Peralta, and then they don't even know who they're gonna pitch in game two, so, uh, maybe they split the first two and this goes to a game three. Mets, for all of the wear and tear of
5:45
playing in Milwaukee last weekend, playing the doubleheader, they kinda kept their pitching intact with Severino Maniah Quintana. I mean, they could pretty much throw their guys.
5:53
They're, they're not too much worse for the wear here. So Mets at plus money is my favorite one. By the way, that, that, first of all, Maniah Quintana, like the fact that the, that these are- I know...
6:02
you know, if we went back in- And Severino... any amount in time, and Severino, but really Maniah Quintana.
6:06
If we went back any amount in time and we're like, "Yeah, this is g- I can't believe they kept their great pitching intact." We're like, "Great pitching?" I know.
6:12
Um, that thing with Edwin Diaz yesterday, uh, again, for those who missed it, s- three to nothing Braves in a game that decides, you know, the first game would decide who gets to the playoffs.
6:21
Uh, the, the Mets came back with six in the top of the eighth, as we talked about earlier.
6:25
But then Edwin Diaz comes in for two innings, and his failure to, to run to first base on a ball hit to his left, which is just automatic for pitchers, right? Fundamental baseball.
6:37
Which is not in a box score as an error, but is the biggest error of them all, 'cause that allowed the Braves to go back ahead seven to six before the, uh, Lindor two-run shot to seal the deal for the Mets in the ninth, or ended up sealing the deal in the ninth.
6:52
Yeah. Um, if that had stood, let's say Lindor doesn't hit that homer, and he, i- and that's how the Mets lose. I'm not sure if they win game two either, right? We'll never know.
7:04
And oh, my God, that would've been the most Mets thing ever in life. Instead, Diaz insists on going back into the game after the Lindor home run. He wasn't going to, but he's like, "No, no, no, I'm going in."
7:17
And he overruled the manager, and then he, uh, he got the job done in the ninth. But that, that could have been... I mean, you think about the little things in baseball, the little moments that change history.
7:26
You know, a la Rajai Davis in, in 2016 hitting the home run against the Mets, excuse me, against the, uh, Cubs, and then the, the rain delay happens and the Cubs are able to still win.
7:34
Anyway, there's all these little fulcrum moments- Sure... what could have been. So that was one yesterday.
7:39
Tony, uh, oh, 2004 ALCS in the great Red Sox comeback, I think it was game five, Tony Clark hits a double that score, w- gonna put the go-ahead run on the board for the Yankees, and he hops over the fence for a ground rule double.
7:49
They don't score, then eventually Boston wins it. Oh, yeah. So yeah, it's just, it's these little moments for baseball.
7:53
And Diaz really let that not covering first affect him, because you could tell his head was not in it. Oh. He was just peppering fast balls to Albies.
8:00
You knew that was not gonna end well because he just, he looked out of it. He really did. Man, that was just so much fun. And, and even in game two.
8:06
Game two, there was such a letdown from game one to game two, the Monday night games. It was just, that was such a great event that it was hard to, to top that.
8:13
The Mets were one swing away from really putting the squeeze on Atlanta, 'cause they're down one-nothing and then what? Fifth or sixth, two on, nobody out. That got very dicey for Atlanta.
8:22
I know in the box score it looks like a comfortable three-nothing win. Yeah. And it kinda was, but boy, there, there was a s- a chance for Alonso to put some damage into that game.
8:29
There was a chance for, I think it was Taylor up at the plate, where, you know, you and I were, were trying to get him to bunt over and, you know, win the game.
8:35
I know the Mets didn't care, so they didn't do that, but man, what, what a day of baseball. It was so great, and you're so right about that game too, too. It's like f- uh, for the, again, a cautionary tale.
8:43
I know that the bettors who were super confident, they would lay any amount of, you know, any number on the Braves to win that game too. By the way, then Sale gets scratched, and everyone's like, "Oh, no." Yes.
8:54
Um, it was still close, right? Like, don't, again, if this ever comes up in the future, a similar type situation, don't be that cocky about it. Don't be that confident. It's still baseball.
9:04
There's not enough roster positions for, for the Mets to completely tank a game. There's still gonna be r- Major League, you know, legit Major League players in that game.
9:12
So you got away with it, but just don't be that cocky about it in the future, would be my advice. Besides the Mets, any series bets? Stayed away from the rest of the series bets.
9:22
I mean, I, Fantool hung a 122 on the, on the Padres. I think that was with the belief that Sale was gonna pitch. And why people thought, like you, you really thought the Braves were gonna get cute and save Sale.
9:33
Like, these teams go to tr- uh, tr- uh, spring training in February, Valentine's Day. They, all you can do in the regular season is make the playoffs. Making the playoffs is everything.
9:41
They weren't gonna save Sale- No... for, for the, uh, playoffs. No. Uh, so that was crazy to me. I didn't expect him to be available, but obviously that, you know, that price is long gone.
9:49
Um, no, I played Scooball under four and a half hits today. I think Detroit is live in game one, and hey, it's a best of three. If you're live in game one, you're live for the series. That's right.
9:57
Um, so I, I do like Detroit today. Any futures in baseball beyond that? Pennant or World Series? No, I don't... I mean, it, it's the old, if you like something, you're better off with the mechanical parlay.
10:08
I do think I would not be surprised if we have a Subway Series. It's 30 to one. Ooh. You're not getting a ton of bang for your buck, but hey, we've talked about it all summer.
10:15
I mean, you, you can't laugh at anybody's pick- No... because these teams are all flawed. These teams are pretty close. It's gonna be, uh, it's gonna be a lot of fun.
10:22
I'm such a hypocrite too, because I'm against putting all these extra teams in. I liked it better when it was four in each league and the, the one game playoff and the wild card.
10:29
That being said, once it starts, man, this is just the best. So great. What a day. I love October. And, and this, today, tomorrow, perhaps Thursday, may be the best days of them all.
10:38
Uh, you have a football prop play or an awards play that you would like to share. Boy, this feels like deja vu. This time last year, I talked about Purdy at 22 to one to win MVP.
10:48
I think he's still in a range, I haven't looked at it this morning, I don't know, 16 to one, 18 to one.
10:52
If San Francisco is able to win their 11 or so games and be a one or two seed, uh, you can't use the argument against him that he's got all this help, 'cause McCaffrey is, who knows when he's gonna be back, if he's gonna be back.
11:03
Deebo's missed games. He'll probably miss more games. I, I think Purdy's just really good. He's on one of the better teams. I think Purdy's still, at that number, is undervalued. I absolutely love it.
11:12
I had a Purdy ticket last year. Of course, it all went to- Oh... went to flames against the Ravens, right? That one game just w- it went poof. Um, but I'm with you. Purdy, by the way, uh, 18 to one we're showing.
11:24
That's a good number. 18 to one. That is a good number. I like that. He's the, what is that? The sixth shortest shot on the board.
11:30
Obviously Patrick Mahomes at three to one, Josh Allen plus 350, and Lamar Jackson at seven to one, in single digits. Will @NotTheWillHill on Twitter as always. Thank you, sir. Enjoy the day. All right, appreciate it.
11:41
Thanks for having me. We will be texting back and forth in our group thread. What a, what a day of baseball nerdiness. Uh, we'll come back. Paul Sporer will join us. We'll also talk some fantasy on the other side.
11:58
BSN, the sports betting network Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. It's Gil Alexander.
12:06
Uh, we got tweets, @BeatingTheBook: Steel City USMC, Steel City Jarhead said, uh, "Unfortunately, Pete probably did more harm to his chances at Hall, at the Hall of Fame than he should have with his actions and speech while alive.
12:17
In death, he'll probably have a better chance to get in. He was a special man in every way. RIP." I, I don't deny any of that, uh, that he was his own worst enemy.
12:25
Doesn't, uh, affect my conclusion that we are stewards of a museum.
12:30
Put him in, put a plaque, say anything you want on the plaque about, uh, him being banned from baseball, his actions of not admitting it, um, anything you wanna write there.
12:40
But the, the arrogance of not allowing future generations to even know that player existed as a great ballplayer is just ridiculous. Uh, Edward LaFevre, noted Paula Badosa fan, he says, "Gil, great show as per usual.
12:51
Only thing missing is my favorite guest, Steve Fezzik. He is gold, Jerry." We'll get Fezzik on on Fridays. Fridays, uh, with Felika Fezzik and, uh, Dr. Bob to close every show.
13:00
Uh, Kyle Ribisell: "Personally, I think there is no Hall of Fame without Bonds and Rose.
13:05
That said, I believe Bonds understood the consequences before taking steroids and was willing to risk Hall of Fame to chase home run records."
13:11
The, the thing about all this also, which I didn't mention is, again, or maybe I did mention it, again, it's, it's everybody's got their own biases and prisms of what is worse than other things, right?
13:22
So, and, and within the steroid argument itself, you have guys who clearly took steroids with eyes, right?
13:29
Pudge Rodriguez ballooned into this mammoth guy, and then all of a sudden when he stopped taking them, he was like this, this straw, he was like the, uh, scarecrow of The Wizard of Oz. He's in the Hall of Fame.
13:38
Nobody says a word 'cause they like Pudge. But Bonds was not a good guy, so he's out, right? So there's all kinds of hypocrisies within the eras. What about guys before who were spitballing with their baseballs, right?
13:49
There's all kinds of cheating. So there's also that subjectivity that exists in this. SteelerJack50, uh, Jack Han- uh, Jack Hannon, he says, "My issue with Pete Rose is the hypocrisy of baseball." There you go.
14:00
"I think common sense would tell us that Ohtani was making those bets. For selfish reasons, I don't have a problem with MLB sweeping it under the rug. How about we give Pete the same courtesy?"
14:08
Well said, Jack Hannon, in my opinion. Um, so many of these tweets. Appreciate all of them, uh, on the show. Best listeners in the game. Let's talk some, uh, survivor.
14:18
Let's talk some fantasy with the greatest sports talk radio host there ever was. I will not argue with anybody on this. Uh, it is not up for debate.
14:25
It's the great Todd Wright, the former host of All Night with Todd Wright back at ESPN Radio in the day. It's Todd Wright now joining us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Todd? Good morning, Gil.
14:35
Good morning, Callie. Um, let me ask you, let's, let's, let's crescendo to Survivor. Let us start with fantasy. Uh, you still love your fantasy, and Rashee Rice's injury in Kansas City.
14:47
If you are an owner with Rashee Rice and you were not prepared for this, you are not rostered with a replacement, what do you do? Who do you pick up here? Right.
14:56
Well, nice caveat, because this is why fantasy teams have benches.
14:59
So you should have someone that was able to u- to plug and play, and then waivers is a second option for you to find someone to potentially put on the bench behind the person you're putting in the lineup.
15:13
If that's not the case, if that bench player is on a bye this week, 'cause there are four teams on a bye, you are looking for someone like Wicks from Green Bay, should be available.
15:25
Leggett from Carolina should be available. Thomas, Jacksonville may be available. Jennings still may be available. Someone played him, then might cut him.
15:36
Unhappy with just the three catches despite the good yardage, uh, last week with San Francisco.
15:42
And, uh, I even, a week ago, Gil, just to fortify my bench, picked up Mooney in Atlanta because clearly people are finally getting the hint that Kyle Pitts can't play this game.
15:54
So Kirk Cousins' second pass catcher, not out of the backfield, looks like Mooney behind Drake London in Atlanta. So those are all some options.
16:03
And of note, for those Kelce owners that were waiting for something to happen- Yeah... it happened because Rice seemed to be running the Kelce package, and without Rice out there, Kelce is back running the Kelce package.
16:18
Yeah, and you answered one of my other questions, which is, uh, there's a couple of them. One, is there a, is a Carolina receiver worthwhile with Andy Dalton now at, uh, quarterback?
16:27
Is there a viable Jaguars wide out even with their futility thus far this year? And you kinda did answer that already, correct?
16:35
Uh, and in addition to Leggett, I picked up and played Diontae Johnson last week, um, and used him, uh, because of Dalton making their offense suddenly, let's just call it capable, and Johnson being a playmaker.
16:50
Uh, when he was on the field in Pittsburgh, he was always a threat to score. I think he will be used.
16:55
It might only be a short-term option, Gil, but Diontae Johnson, when he's on the field, is capable of scoring touchdowns, and he, he, he's shown that ability already in just two weeks with Andy Dalton.
17:06
I'm curious about a couple things 'cause I don't, I don't play season-long fantasy anymore. I don't play any kind of fantasy. But I'm curious 'cause I remember these kinds of situations.
17:14
Did, did folks give up on, like, I'll, I'll use the Skins. Did, did folks who have Terry McLaurin give up on him? Did you see him getting cut from anybody's teams? Yes, they did.
17:26
Uh, in one of my leagues where I laid in wait and I went running back, running back early because I was picking at the end of the first round, so end of round one, start of round two, most people overvaluing, say, Breece Hall, overvaluing Bijan a bit, taking all these receivers.
17:43
So I had my choice, and I hammered Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. I did pass on Barkley. I have some remorse there.
17:51
And then all I did was draft pass catchers, and then in the eighth round, I said, "Here's where I gotta do it." Let's go Jayden Daniels and let's start him, and let's see what the kid can do, and it's been great.
18:00
Later in that round, McLaurin was drafted, and after two weeks, the owner in that league who drafted him dumped him.
18:07
So I picked him up before the breakout in week three, and suddenly, Gil, I have a Washington stack of Daniels and McLaurin- [laughs]... going each week, and it's wonderful. Let's go. How do you cut Terry McLaurin?
18:20
He's incomparable, Todd. He's incomparable. Uh, th- through four weeks, number one fantasy player is Alvin Kamara. Did you see this coming? No.
18:29
No, and if anyone did, please tweet at Gil, and, uh, Gil can let me know if I don't hear it live on the show.
18:35
Because, uh, Kamara was at that age, like Joe Mixon, where even the Matthew Berry's of the world reminded us, their fantasy production drops off, and it's even before the, the round number of 30 that we've heard all along for running backs, supposedly.
18:52
Um, so Kamara was at, I think he's 28, or right around 28. But maybe it's Kubiak, very good interior offensive line for the Saints, maybe just the philosophy, uh, to start the season.
19:06
But Gil, if you combine the first three running backs in most drafts in fantasy this year, McCaffrey, um, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and add up their numbers, Kamara's numbers are better than the top three drafted.
19:22
He almost matches them in total yardage. He has six touchdowns and a ridiculous 96 touches, 97 touches of the football.
19:30
Uh, last fantasy question 'cause I wanna get to Survivor, but, uh, I'm thinking out loud here with the McLaurin thing. Did anybody cut him? What about before the season? Well, before on drafts.
19:37
Because it was Sam Darnold starting for Minnesota, did Justin Jefferson drop in drafts? I'm just curious. Significantly.
19:45
I'm sure, I'm sure in some leagues he went in the top five, but in one of my leagues I took him seventh, and gladly did.
19:52
In a league I observed where I have a lot of friends, some media friends, he went 20th overall in a 14-team league. It didn't make sense to me from this standpoint, Gil.
20:03
If you looked at what Sam Darnold had for coaching and play calling in his time with the Jets and Carolina, it was brutal. Kyle Shanahan brought him in and said, "We're gonna be okay if Purdy goes down this year."
20:16
So he worked with Kyle Shanahan for a year. Then he goes with one of the best offensive minds and play callers in a head coach in Minnesota in Kevin O'Donnell, and we knew there was no guesswork once McCarthy went down.
20:28
So I said, look, this is still a very talented guy. He's with a very capable quarterback.
20:32
And at least at the time I thought, Gil, that Sam Darnold could have a comeback in 2024 with Minnesota, the way Baker Mayfield had a comeback with the right play calling and coaching in Tampa Bay in 2023.
20:44
So far, so good. So far, so good, for sure. All right, 90 seconds. Todd, by the way, is the host of the Todd Wright Fantasy Football Podcast, and the Todd Wright Survivor Podcast as well. Who you got this week, Todd?
20:58
For Survivor, it's right back at you, Gil, because two in the crosshairs for me this week, if you're doing game theory, would be Indy on the road as an anti-Jacksonville play, even though we're not sure about Indy's number one QB and we're not sure about Indy's number one running back, Jonathan Taylor.
21:15
That's also a big fantasy topic this week. And Washington. [laughs] I was one of those, Gil, who played Washington week one last year against Arizona and survived, just from a game theory standpoint.
21:28
But here, do we jump on Washington and push in in week five- Oh... uh, against a very bad Cleveland team? Are we buying in that early? Do you think Washington will be a top three Survivor play this week? I think it...
21:42
I don't know if it's top three, but it'll be up there. I, I, you know... You know how this is for me. I, I can't embrace it yet. Like, I'm so scarred in th- you know, what has it been?
21:51
Since 1991 that they've won a, uh, January of '92 since they won a Super Bowl, and they've only had blips since then. And I'm just, I can't embrace it yet. So for me it w- it would be Seattle this week, I think.
22:03
Um, I don't know if I'd- Even coming off the short week... even coming off the short week. Hosting the Giants, I think that's where I would go. Yeah. But that's just me being a Skins fan who just isn't- I know...
22:13
ready to embrace it, you know? I know. We, we listeners love that.
22:17
With what's going on with Washington and with Jayden Daniels and with them performing this way, and just what it means for you talking about them on the show adds just another layer of early season entertainment for us- [laughs]...
22:31
and I hope it continues. Thank you, Todd. That's very nice of you. Todd Wright, everybody. Thank you so much. I'll be listening to the, uh, Todd Wright Fantasy Football and Survivor Podcast. Thank you, sir.
22:40
Uh, the great Todd- Thank you... the great Todd Wright, everybody, kind enough to join us. Paul Spohn, Major League Baseball postseason begins today. That's next.
22:48
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game has a special offer. This week only you can score 40% off of our football season special when you use promo code ANG.
23:02
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23:43
Little news in, uh, college hoops. You see this? Gonzaga joining the Pac-12. Uh, end of an era in Spokane, Washington.
23:52
Gonzaga, which, uh, rose to prominence in college basketball in the late '90s and has been a staple at the top of college basketball, well, not the very tip-top, but in the top r- ranks of college basketball since then now for really a, a quarter of a century.
24:08
They are joining the Pac-12, so a huge boon to the Pac-12. And, uh- Uh, Gonzaga will now chase the, uh, their first elusive, uh, national championship as a member of the Pac-12.
24:19
That is a massive, uh, development in college sports. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the feedback.
24:27
Samuel Sierra, "What a power move by the Braves to start Kenny Powers in the second game yesterday." [laughs] I got a few of these. "No-hitter through three innings. Only one hit through four and seven Ks."
24:38
Uh, yeah, did look, uh, he did look like Kenny Powers, didn't he? Uh, Rick James, not that Rick James, but just a different Rick James, says, uh, "Nobody will ever play the sport as hard as Pete Rose.
24:46
Kids growing up are afraid to slide or even run out a pop-up. Hall of Fame, for sure." Yeah, I said that at the top when talking about him.
24:52
As much as he's known for all the numbers, really when you think of it, is, was there ever a better nickname than Charlie Hustle?
24:59
Uh, the, the head first slide, the running to first base on a walk, which drove some people crazy, but was just part of it.
25:05
Uh, by the way, if I could recommend a, uh, docuseries, there's a, there's a Pete Rose four-part docuseries. I wanna say it's on HBO Max. Super good. Uh, really interesting.
25:16
Uh, Chance Copperpot, "Could not agree more with your takes on Rose and Bonds and Bush. If Reggie Bush can get his Heisman back, why can't we restate Rose? It's disgusting he passed away before MLB does what was right."
25:29
Um, and Gaba, who was giving me the, uh, the instruction about, uh, juego versus partido in Spanish, he says, "Huge fan of the pod, both the Numbers Game and the Megapod." Thank you, sir. And, uh, let's see.
25:40
I don't even know this one. Should I, should I... Well, I don't wanna Ron Burgundy through that one as I look at some of this stuff. I don't wanna tread, uh, on, on some, uh, dangerous ground.
25:49
Uh, okay, uh, before we get to Paul Spohrer, here are my World Series matchups. Two have already gone by the wayside. With the Diamondbacks elimination, my big Royals-Diamondbacks 400 to 1 is done-zo.
26:00
So is my Guardians-Diamondbacks 66 to 1. Now, I've never done this before. I've never gone crazy
26:05
on World Series matchups, but I've been preaching this now for a few, a couple months at least, where I'm like, "This is the year. This is the year to take your shot," because it is the most wide open.
26:15
And I'm not being prisoner of the moment, I don't believe. It's the most wide open baseball postseason I can ever really remember, where there is no team without flaw. And so I've got six.
26:26
Uh, these were available at BetMGM. Good on BetMGM. These are not exact as I do not need one team to beat another in the World Series. I simply need for these teams to get to the World Series and face each other.
26:37
I have three that s- uh, that revolve around the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians have a first round bye. I got them against the Braves at 80 to 1, against the Padres at 35 to 1, and against the Phillies at 16 to 1.
26:47
You may notice that in the National League, the team that I have three different ways is the Padres.
26:52
I got them against the Guardians, as I just mentioned, 35 to 1, but also against the Tigers at 50 to 1 and the Orioles at 25 to 1, and there's also a, uh, Tigers-Braves in there in the middle as well at 125 to 1.
27:04
So no Yankees, no Dodgers. If any of that happens, then I'll lose them all, but I am prepared to do so in a year where I think it's wide open, and it's incumbent upon you to take a shot with this kind of stuff.
27:15
Um, so good on BetMGM for having it. Not every book has the matchups. Most have exactas, but not everyone has the matchups. So cannot wait for these games today. Got series bets, also have the World Series matchups.
27:26
Should be a fun October. And who better to talk baseball postseason with us than Paul Spohrer, @spohrer on Twitter. He works at FanGraphs. Name of the podcast is Sleeper and the Bust.
27:36
He joins us now via the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Paul? I'm doing well, Gil. Thanks for having me on. What a time of year. Is this the greatest day of the baseball? Would you say today?
27:46
What's better, today or opening day? Oh, today, I think. I mean, opening day is amazing. I, I do love the excitement of the beginning of a season and six-month grind.
27:55
They're pretty close, but the, uh, back to back to back to back playoff games is pretty, pretty electric.
28:01
So yeah, I'm pretty, I'm pretty dialed in for that, and I'm on my way to Houston right now for the Tigers game, so I'm doubly excited. Oh, wow. Are you in an airport right now? Is that why you're via phone?
28:12
No, I, I'm driving. You're driving. Oh, of course you are, 'cause you're in Austin. How long is that drive- That's right... from Austin to Houston? About three hours. Wow. Me and my sister are heading out. Good for you.
28:22
Um, okay, Paul Spohrer gonna be in the ballpark today. Uh, let's start there. Let's start with that series.
28:27
Your beloved Tigers, who just had an unbelievable run to the finish line to get into the playoffs, then they lose a couple to the White Sox, so they end up with a s- with a six seed, and they are taking on the Houston Astros.
28:39
The Astros, the third division winner, so no matter what the records of the wild card teams, the number three division winner always gets the three seed. It's the best of three. They're all in Houston.
28:49
Are you go- are you gonna go to all of them if they're all there? If, if all three are played? No, j- no, ju- just, just today. Just today, okay.
28:56
By the way, they're all, again, they're all in the home ballpark of the higher seed. Mm-hmm. Um, today, tomorrow, Thursday, if necessary. It's Skubal against Valdez. Uh, who you got today? Who do you have in this series?
29:09
Well, it is the Tigers' best chance, obviously, to get ahead with the ace, uh, Skubal. Best pitcher in baseball this year. Framber Valdez, I think, is also an ace. Really top-tier pitcher.
29:19
However, he does kind of have a career history in the playoff that isn't as sharp. He gets up to about a mid to high fours ERA with a 130 WHIP. Everything gets a bit tougher.
29:28
Um, his pitch to contact maybe doesn't work as well in the playoffs. So I like Tigers' opportunity today. This is the series, in my opinion.
29:37
Being a three-game set, obviously with the, the crazy baseball that they've been playing, I still wouldn't count them out if they lost, but this is it for the Tigers, in my opinion.
29:45
They have to win this first one and then try to find a way to steal one of the next two with their kind of mishmash pitching that they've been doing. You've got the best pitcher in baseball.
29:54
Now, the tough part is with them running Framber, it does neutralize some of their best bats. Parker Meadows, Riley Green, Kerry Carpenter, and Colt Keith are their four best hitters, and they're all lefties.
30:05
A couple of them might not even start. A.J. Hinch is not afraid of doing that to make sure that they get set up in verse righty situations late in games.
30:13
So don't be surprised if you don't s- if you see, like, an Ibáñez in there or a Justin Henry Malloy for a couple of those guys, 'cause that's what Hinch does So I do still think Houston wins the series.
30:24
Uh, I, I just, I gotta give my honest opinion there. Uh, I'm pulling very hard for the Tigers. I think they win today, and then lose two in a row unfortunately, and, and end the Cinderella run. Wow, interesting.
30:34
That's from a Tigers fan. Thinks they win today, then thinks they lose games two and three tomorrow and Thursday. Um, what the Tigers are doing, we have not made enough of this on this show.
30:42
Uh, there was, some years ago, uh, when I... This was somewhere back, not quite when I used to go to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, but a couple years after that when VSiN was first started.
30:52
Uh, w- I, I s- I mentioned this paper, right? These were all kinds of, like, grad students who were looking for jobs in sports, and they would write all these papers, and they...
30:59
And one of them, uh, always stuck with me, which is, and someone reminded me of this on Twitter, forgive me that I can't remember who, but it was, like, the optimal way to pitch.
31:06
Now, keep in mind, this is, like, you know, many years ago. The optimal way- Mm-hmm... to pitch was to actually have guys pitch, uh, w- you know, every pitcher pitch two innings. And, you know- Right...
31:17
mishmash a g- mishmash a baseball game. Now, obviously that had no sense of managing a 162 game schedule and that kind of thing.
31:24
But until we saw the Giants win three World Series at the beginning of last decade with, again, what were the most common, you know, players over those three World Series, they had the most relievers that stayed on the team for all three of those championships.
31:36
Then we saw the Royals, right? The Royals, through constraints of their salary, um, or their payroll, pardon me, that they had to, like, you know, th- rethink how they played baseball.
31:47
They were the first to admit, "Hey, if we had a big payroll, we would've done it the conventional way." But they had to figure- Right... out a different way to play baseball.
31:53
So it was the, the Herrera, Holland, or excuse me, Herrera, Davis, Holland, was that the order? Uh, that they lost- The, um, that trio, yep. Yeah, that trio that used, and they got them to win a World Series.
32:03
This Detroit thing is closer to that paper that I'm talking about, that research paper, than anything ever. They basically have two starters and are mishmashing the rest of this, right? E- e- exactly.
32:14
They've been playing what people have been calling Legion ball, uh, you know, American Legion ball, or playoff baseball literally for six weeks now. So to that end, you know, they're ready to go with all of this.
32:24
Everyone knows that their number's gonna get called. When it gets called, you gotta be ready. Tyler Holton, sometimes you're starting the game, the very next day you might be closing the game.
32:32
And so they've got the buy-in, and that's what you get with a young team, something that that Royals team had, too.
32:37
They brought in some veterans to kind of go with their run, Johnny Cueto, Whit Merrifield, but they also had a lot of young guys, and the buy-in is definitely easier on that front because they're just trying to get the playing time, right?
32:48
So I don't think they have anybody over 30 on the offense, and Kenta Maeda might be the only guy over 30 on the team as a whole. So they have the right setup, it's just a matter of are these guys still gonna hold up?
33:00
Is Brandt Hurter and Tyler Holton, are they still gonna be studs? Is Will Best gonna be good?
33:05
The problem with the b- Tigers' bullpen that I am a little bit on, is that it, it isn't a swing and miss bullpen the way that HDH one was for KC. So you're snuffing the ball out of play completely.
33:16
The Tigers don't do that quite as much, and that does worry me a little bit. All right. Paul's gonna stick with us for one more segment.
33:21
He's a Tigers fan, but he says he thinks the Tigers win game one and then they lose games two and three.
33:26
We'll get his thoughts on the, uh, four-five game in the American League, the Royals and the Orioles in that series, and then of course the two series in the NL, the Mets and the Brewers, the Braves and the Padres.
33:36
Paul Sporer coming back on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:52
Don't forget, top of the hour after a Numbers Game, Money Moves with Stormy Boni-Tony and Mike Somich today, Somo bombing for two hours with Stormy. Uh, good little combination there today.
34:04
Then after that, Prop Points with John Hanson from 2:00 to 3:00 PM Eastern, then Make It Rain with Adam Shine after that at 3:00 PM Eastern.
34:12
Uh, all that you can possibly handle sports betting-wise on a Num- uh, on, on VSiN rather, the sports betting network, coming up after a Numbers Game. Uh, we had tweets that beat in the post.
34:22
Just wanna read a couple here before we get back to Paulie. Jason McKinney, "Took your advice early and have a Padres Royals ticket at 200 to one." Good luck with that one.
34:30
And James Sod, "Are you adopting the Guardians this postseason like you did in April and May? Uh, World Series here we come." Yes, and as, uh, yes, actually, uh, Jim, um,
34:40
I am, and I have three World Series match-ups with the Guardians, and again, apologies to Adam Burke. I'm gonna borrow them for a little while. But he can, he can, we can both do it together. That's his team.
34:49
Uh, okay, let's rejoin Paul Sporer, who's on his way to Minute Maid to watch the Astros and the Tigers this morning. That is the, uh, the first of the ballgames, the first of the quartet of games.
34:59
Two American League games first, and then we go to the National League games, uh, because they're allowing the Mets to travel and then the Braves to travel even the furthest. Those are the two, uh, late games.
35:08
Um, Paul, I, o- one thing before we get to the other three series. You and I off air last week when we were texting when the Tigers were clinching spots,
35:17
I was bringing up the fact that we talk about, I talk about on this show, and I'm sure others do as well, I talk about NFL Coach of the Year, right? We talk about NBA Coach of the Year.
35:26
Manager of the Year markets actually exist, but for whatever reason, we don't talk about them. I wonder what AJ Hinch's number was on August 11th. Why is it that we don't bet this thing?
35:39
We should probably be talking about this more every year. Some narratives that pop up, and it's not always just, you know, the highest winning team.
35:48
So I definitely think there is a market to explore, um, and obviously Hinch wrote himself quite a case here down the stretch because his button pressing was a huge, huge part of the Tigers' run.
36:00
So, and not just my bias as a Tigers fan, I really do think he has a strong case for the Manager of the Year. Yeah, but, you know, there's a lot of teams that could claim it, right? The Royals, the- True...
36:09
Guardians, right? There's a, there's other teams. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Um, okay, let's get to the other series. Let's talk about the, uh, four-five in the American League, uh, next, which is the next chronologically today.
36:19
That's the Royals and the Orioles, where the Orioles are minus 175 series favorites. The Royals plus 150-ish on the comeback. Who do you like?
36:30
You know, I, I like, I like the Royals I think both in the series, uh, and, and I'm pretty intrigued in them today.
36:35
Obviously if you like somebody for the series in these three gamers, you almost certainly like them for game one. Yeah. Obviously outside of my, my Tigers concern there. Um, but yeah, like
36:45
I think that the Orioles are still kind of on their uphill incline, and obviously the Royals aren't some established team either. So this is really interesting.
36:53
I thought it would've been really, uh, interesting if the Orioles had faced more of a veteran team like this Houston ball club, for example, to show kind of the old and new. But instead they're facing another new team.
37:04
That said, I'm just not sure where they're getting their pitching from, uh, in Baltimore, outside of Corbin Burnes right now. Like, what's... Is Grayson in the rotation? Um, like who's starting game three? I guess Aslan.
37:15
That's not a bad one, two, three, but then where's the bullpen? I, I don't know how trustworthy that is. The biggest key in the playoff, like the single biggest key is home runs, right?
37:24
We've been seeing that the last few years. The team that hits the most home runs, they're, they're gonna have success because that's the quick strike scoring, and the Baltimore bullpen has some issues with that.
37:35
Now, maybe that will be mitigated by being in their park with the big wall over there, but you know, Stranthin and Dominguez is supposed to be the new closer, and his one issue is home runs.
37:45
And, you know, Yanier Cano doesn't necessarily miss bats. I worry.
37:49
I think this Kansas City team is gonna wipe off the stink of their ugly September and turn the page on that, and I really like the way they line up with their pitching. I think they have enough hitting.
37:59
Their bullpen is also a question, but I think they can take Baltimore down.
38:02
Yeah, and by the way, uh, for those who have been following the Royals, we had them in a, in a month during the season as our, as the MLB Most Wins market, uh, so we're real familiar with the Royals roster.
38:11
Vinny Pasquantino was added to the, uh, to the roster. He was. Okay.
38:16
Yeah, so he's gonna DH for them, which is a huge boon for an offense that is really good right there at two, three, four, and then maybe not so great after that, generally speaking. Right. But he's massive for them.
38:29
That is absolutely huge to get Vinny Pasquantino back, even if he's not necessarily 100%. You can draw a perfect line between their struggles and losing him. Yeah.
38:37
That doesn't necessarily mean that it was him, you know, correlation versus causation. But you cannot deny that he was a big piece out of their lineup at a time when they could ill afford it.
38:47
They're gonna need a Michael Massey, a Maikel Garcia, a Kyle Isbel, somebody like that to step up. It can't just be Witt and Pasquantino. They need some guys to step up for them.
38:56
Of course, Sal Perez is a, a, another stalwart there too. So they've got the pieces to do it, it's just a matter of stepping up, but I like this KC ball club to be, uh, frogging in Baltimore. Okay.
39:05
So you have the Royals advancing to take on the Yankees. Mm-hmm. And you've got the Astros advancing to take on the Guardians. Remember, these aren't- Yep... there are no reseedings here.
39:16
This is all in a bracket, so they stay static like that. Let's go to the National League. Um, the three-six between the Brewers and the Mets, this is the most tightly lined of all the wild card series, Paul.
39:27
The Brewers only minus 131 favorites. And I think that's understandable. I think people are still looking and wondering kind of where does the pitching come from. They've pieced their pitching together this year too.
39:39
You know, we talk about the Tigers running without a, uh, traditionally deep rotation. It's not like the, uh, the Brewers are necessarily doing that.
39:47
Freddy Peralta's up at the top, and then Tobias Myers, Colin Ray have really stepped up. Frankie Montas is kind of their X factor, though, a trade acquisition that kind of went under the radar.
39:55
Big arm, really liked him out in Oakland, but started struggling once he left Oakland for New York. The injuries struck.
40:01
Didn't show anything in Cincinnati that made me particularly excited about it, and then starts to click a bit with, uh, Milwaukee, because they do a lot of positive things there in terms of getting the best out of their pitchers.
40:11
It starts with William Contreras and then works with their defense as well. So they put their pitchers in the best positions to succeed. I do like this ball club h- here with the Brewers.
40:20
I think their offense is deep enough, even without Yelich, to take on this, uh, uh, Mets team here. I think the Mets are very much game. That's why it is a toss-up here.
40:29
But I think push come to shove, I'm gonna go with the Brewers, and I think they're gonna go ahead and take it in three. Okay. Brewers in three. Severino against Peralta in that one today.
40:38
And then it's the Padres and the Braves, which begins tonight. Uh, obviously the Braves with that, uh, win in game two of the double header yesterday against the Mets after the dramatic loss in game one.
40:48
So they, uh, they coast in. I shouldn't say coast. That game was kind of tight yesterday. Um- Right... al- although I said even though when it was one to nothing, it felt like it was 100 to nothing.
40:57
Uh, the Padres- It really did. Yeah. Padres are minus 180 in this series. They're minus 162 in the ballgame today, um, at Petco. What do you like?
41:08
Yeah, I'm, I'm all over the Padres there, so, um, you know, it could be another one of those like Cinderellas where the team that we're look- overlooking the most ends up making a run with Atlanta, but I'm just not sure I see it, especially if this Sale thing is real and not like, oh, he needs an extra day or even maybe some gamesmanship.
41:25
You know, I've, I've heard some chatter like, "Oh, maybe they sat him on purpose."
41:28
I, I don't know why you would do that with your life on the line, but maybe they were confident enough in Grant Holmes and Raylo that they were gonna just get that game, and now they're trying to play possum on San Diego, and they're gonna unveil Sale.
41:38
But i- if he's not good to go, I'm just not sure where it's coming from with them. I do like Sale, Morton, or s- excuse me, Sale, Fried, Raylo as a top three. That's pretty intriguing.
41:49
And Schwalbach, I didn't even mention him. So they've got some really good starting pitching, but they've been hemorrhaging, uh, players out of their lineup. I think the San Diego team is loaded.
41:58
They're, uh, they were awesome last year, and they had that terrible, uh, extra innings and one run records. We knew that the team, the team wasn't bad.
42:07
This year they're not that drastically different, and yet they play drastically different because their luck starts to break on the late and close games, and they play a bit better with that great bullpen that they got at the deadline.
42:18
I love this Padres team, and you're gonna hear me talk a lot about them as we go further into our, uh, uh, playoff guesses too.
42:23
Yeah, just to clarify again, uh, today it's Skubal versus Valdez in, in really the best pitching matchup of them all, uh, where the total- Right...
42:30
is flirting with six, right, in that ballgame between the Tigers and the Astros. Royals-Orioles is Reagan's against Burns. Uh, the Royals bullpen looking good of late, which is a bit of a development as well.
42:39
Then Mets-Brewers, as we mentioned, Severino-Peralta. We do not have a named Braves starter yet against Michael King, who is getting the ball for- Right... the, uh, San Diego Padres tonight.
42:48
Uh, okay, we got, uh, 60 seconds, Paul. Let's, let's put you on record here before the postseason. Who's meeting in the World Series? Who's playing? Who's winning it?
42:57
It's gonna be Padres-Yankees, and I got the Padres winning it.
43:00
I just think the, what they've done with that bullpen, with the acquisitions that they had, the starting pitching that they already had, the great star talent on offense that they have.
43:09
I mean, this is, um, I don't want to say a sleeping giant 'cause I don't think they're asleep, but I think this Padres team is excellent.
43:14
There are questions with the Yankees, but they are still a really deep and excellent team too. They can make a big run here. I think they get all the way to the finals there, uh, in the World Series against the Padres.
43:23
But in the end, the Padres win in six. And that would be a 1999 World Series revenge matchup. That's right. Yes. That's right. By the way, so many of these matchups would be a World Series revenge matchups as well.
43:35
There's a lot of those. All right, Padres over the Yankees. A lot of Padres love out there, Paul. Does that scare you that everybody seems to love them? No, they probably heard that I was on and wanted to get on board.
43:45
[laughs] I understand. That's what it was. They're like, "What did Spohrer have? Okay, Padres it is." Exactly. Exactly. I got them in thr- I got them in three World Series matchups.
43:51
The Yankees are not one of them, though, so I hope it's the Padres, but I hope it's not against the Yankees. Paul, thank you. That's fine by me. Enjoy the game tonight, or this afternoon, I should say. Thank you much.
44:01
Have a good day. Yeah. All right. Yeah. Paul, Paul Spohrer, everybody, on his way to watch his, uh, Tigers take on the Astros in game one.
44:08
Tigers-Astros, uh, begins the day at 2:30 Eastern, 11:30 Pacific, and then it's Royals-Orioles 90 minutes after that, Mets-Brewers 90 minutes after that, and then a little later on into the night, the Braves and the Padres.
44:21
Money Moves with Stormy and Mike Somich. That's Mike Somich, everybody. Next, right here on Vsi- the Sports Betting Network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
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