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Oct 22, 2024
A Numbers Game | October 22, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | October 22, 2024 | Hour 1
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Transcript
0:00
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0:25
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:34
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midlin live from Circa.
0:45
Two hours of Bronny talk today, Kelly. Can't wait. [laughs] Let's go. That's right. Let's- Very excited... that's what everybody else is talking about, Gil. Yeah. [laughs] We're gonna make certain people listen.
0:53
[laughs] That's what we're gonna do. Uh, on the show today, it is packed.
0:56
Uh, Drew Didsick will, uh, join us, not only talk NFL with us, but because it is the, uh, the morning of the NBA season commencing, uh, Drew will give us all his season longs, all his thoughts in the NBA, 'cause he is a big-time NBA bettor as well.
1:09
We'll talk World Series preview. I have some thoughts. Paul Spohrer has some thoughts as well. We'll get to that.
1:14
You will, uh, chime in on the NBA, 'cause you really haven't had a chance to do so b- you know, fully- Yeah... on this show. Yeah, run through all my futures and everything. Yeah. Yep, day one, I'm excited.
1:22
And then, uh, Wilson Hilson with all of his, uh, World Series bets and thoughts otherwise, and bets in other sports. I have a feeling he's all about the Yankees. That's my guess. [laughs] You have a feeling?
1:32
That's my guess. [laughs] But I'm, I could be wrong about that. I don't know. It's funny reading all the previews of the, of, of, you know, baseball stuff.
1:40
There is a, I, I feel like there is a Yankee skew, at least to the ones that I read anecdotally. I was just gonna ask that. Yeah. 'Cause I, I brought it up yesterday.
1:47
It felt like we were getting that a little bit from Mark last week. It'll be interesting- Yeah...
1:51
uh, to see what he has to say tomorrow, and then, uh, yeah, yeah, we'll, we'll, we'll see, we'll see what these guys got to say. We'll see what they have to say.
1:58
Uh, football last night, uh, doubleheader, and let me just say this right off the top. Can I be a 1,000-year-old man r- to start the show? I can't take the streaming anymore. I can't do it anymore. Yeah.
2:08
'Cause there is, there is no, I don't know what platform you have, but on most platforms, right? I think I'm confident in saying that, and then we find this on Thursday nights, right?
2:17
When there's a football game on Thursday night on Amazon and when there's, like, a baseball postseason game is when it has manifested this month.
2:23
But last night was a great example of it just being football versus football. There is no seamless way to toggle back and forth- No... in the same way that you can from a network to a network, right?
2:33
And so last night, I, did you, how much of that Chargers-Arizona game did you end up watching? How many total plays? I had the, I h- I, I have the, the multi-TV setup, right? So, so, so you had it okay.
2:44
So I was going, yeah, I had it up. I had it. Okay. But, but I understand. For the mere mortals that- That is the problem with streaming, yes...
2:49
that don't have multi-TV viewing and who, like, don't have access to a sportsbook, like, I could walk up the hill, go to the sportsbook, but I'm wondering what the average number of plays, 'cause I think the way that that Chargers-Arizona game was going last night, I wonder if there was a lot of people who just punted on it till after the Ravens- Yeah...
3:03
Bucs was over. Oh, I'm, I'm sure you're right. I also d- I also feel like ESPN didn't do as good of a job promoting it as they usually do. I think that's true too. Because I got a lot of texts.
3:12
People like, "Where is this game?" People, "Where is this g- yeah, where is this game at?" Yes. Yes, 'cause it wasn't, it wasn't network, it wasn't Amazon, it wasn't ca- it was, it was ESPN+.
3:20
I thought, and I think I only heard about it over the weekend somehow. I was like, "Oh, that's interesting." I would agree with that. I, I don't have much to say about that game, uh, 17-15, Arizona wins.
3:28
Were you on Arizona in this? Yes. Yes. Yeah. Um, 17-15 in a game that was a Cameron Dicker, uh, field goal fest.
3:35
By the way, can we say beyond Justin, are, are we ready to pass the torch from Justin Tucker [laughs] to Cameron Dicker? [laughs] He does not miss.
3:43
I don't know if you're gonna, I don't think you're gonna get any pushback from me, Gil. He has never missed a kick inside of 50. It's incredible. And he's, like, missed six field goals in his entire career.
3:51
It's unbelievable. Yeah, he's automatic these days. Um, I don't have much to say about that game. It's about what I expected, but I will say, I, I think the Baltimore-Tampa Bay game is, is good to go over a little bit.
4:01
Again, it was one of these games, we had a few of these this week, where one team spotted the other team 10 points. We saw that in the Tennessee-Buffalo game. Um, Buffalo then scored every point after that.
4:12
We saw that in the New England-Jacksonville-London game, even though New England did get a garbage touchdown. Essentially, they were spotted 10, and then Jacksonville rolled them.
4:19
That was kind of what happened last night. Uh, Baltimore spotted Tampa Bay 10 points, and then it was the Baltimore Ravens fest. Six play, 70-yard drive, Lamar to Andrews from nine out, made it 10-7.
4:30
Um, then the next time Tampa Bay got the ball after that, the ensuing drive, second and goal from the three, this is where it, uh, this is where it really changed, Mayfield picked by Marlon Humphrey in the end zone.
4:41
Remember, three plays before that, Mayfield had, uh, Mike Evans open in the end zone. He dropped it, and as he's dropping it, or maybe he dropped it because of, he re-aggravated his hamstring.
4:53
So that was the big turn of events in this game, 'cause it looked like Tampa Bay was unstoppable at that point, and then all of a sudden, they were completely stopped with that sort of, uh, hamstring pull, followed by the, uh, the interception kiniela, if you will.
5:05
Yeah, yeah. Yeah, no, it, I mean, it really felt, I, I mean, I thought we were gonna be in for a great high-scoring back-and-forth game.
5:12
Like, it was, I mean, this, this Bucs offense has been so impressive so far this season, and then just injuries, man. Yeah.
5:20
Uh, Baltimore did come back then with the ball after the pick, um, that, you know, the, the refs tried to nullify.
5:25
Well, they did nullify a, uh, a Lamar would-be rushing touchdown on a phantom hold that just didn't exist. Two plays later, didn't matter. Lamar to Bateman, um, s- uh, Lamar, pardon me.
5:36
It was a, it was a rushing touchdown, um, ultimately, but Lamar to, oh, no, Lamar to Justice from 18 was what actually happened after the, uh, the rush was nullified.
5:45
That was two plays after Lamar hit Bateman for 59, 14 to 10. Then Baker picked by Humphrey again on the ensuing drive. It was, it was bad Baker at that point. Yeah. Right? So, oh, we're getting the bad Baker version.
5:56
Baltimore would, uh, lead it 17 to 10 at the half after they had a flag fest at the end of the half. All right. Um, let's fast-forward, 20 to 10, McLaughlin doinks a 55-yarder. Baltimore then takes the short field.
6:07
Four plays, 55 yards in 57 seconds. Lamar to Bateman for a huge gain again for 49 to make it 27 to 10.
6:14
Then the next time Baltimore gets the ball, Henry for 81 sets up Lamar to Andrews, four-yard score on fourth and three at the Tampa Bay. So 34 to 10 late third quarter.
6:23
It would be 41 to 18 with six and a half minutes left. There's a reason why I continue with this, and that's wh- and that's because of this. So at 41 to 18 with 6:32 left, Tampa drives, they score to cut it to 41-24.
6:38
With 3:46 left, they go for two, it fails. Now, Tampa does the I do declare, and it works. So they get the ball back, and I guess they're thinking at this point, um, "We still have a shot." Yeah.
6:52
So they score to cut it to 10, Baker to White untouched from 23 out. 41-31, and then a Baltimore three and out.
7:02
So the backdoor betting, if you have, if you have Baltimore at this point given the points, you are like, "I cannot believe the backdoor of this game is over." [laughs] I had to change back over.
7:10
Like, how is this possible? Yeah. [laughs] How is this possible? And apparently, Tampa Bay held out hope that they could win this some- I mean, I guess they...
7:18
It kept, events kept happening that, that made them think, "Well, I mean, we're still in this kind of." Yep. And the penalty that they pay, the price that they paid for this is that Chris Godwin gets hurt in the process.
7:32
Broke a, a dislocated ankle on a pass pattern. Awful. And that's the end of his season. Like, he had to get air casted and carted out of there. And so now you have the, the Mike Evans hamstring re-aggravation.
7:48
If you ever had a hamstring injury, that could be forever, right? You just, it's a, a really pesky injury. You have no idea when you'll be able to recover from that. And now Chris Godwin done for the year.
7:56
You lose your two starting wide outs in the process. The second of which, Godwin, one might justifiably argue was kind of pointless. Now, maybe they still thought they were in the game. I don't know.
8:08
You can't say it's pointless, but it sure had- Yeah... it sure rang hollow, let's put it that way. And you, in defeat, you may have cost yourself your season, and I don't think I'm exaggerating. No, not at all.
8:20
I, I, I, I think their season's over. You, you lose two guys like that, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, they're, they're too good.
8:25
This offense is so, is based around so much of what they're able to do outside with, uh, with Baker Mayfield and those two guys. Uh, d- like you said, we don't know when Evans is, is gonna be back.
8:34
We don't know what the extent of that is. Godwin looks like he will be all season. These are guys that, uh, these guys are so easy to root for too, man. Like how- Oh, yeah...
8:42
I mean, the wide receivers in Seattle and Tampa and what they've been able to do through a multitude of quarterbacks and stuff, it's so hard.
8:49
I don't know if you caught like him getting carted off, and you, you could make out him wording like, "Back to work," just turns to the trainer and said, "Back to work."
8:56
Like- It, it's unbelievable to have that attitude in that moment... to have that attitude in that moment, yeah. It's incredible. I agree with you. Um, well, you know, beyond that, so what does it mean?
9:03
It means that Tampa Bay now, um- In the, and yo, sorry. I don't, I don't know. I, I know that's gonna be a big conversation today about whether he should've been out there or not.
9:12
I, I think it's easy to say afterward he shouldn't have been. I'm not, I'm not gonna be that guy. I, I would- I wa- I wasn't saying it afterwards... yeah I was saying it in the moment. I'm like, "This is bad."
9:20
That's, I, I think I- Yeah... if a coach doing e- e- either, going either way there, I would've been okay with. I, I know it's, it's, it's, it's easy that it looks bad now, but I, I don't know.
9:30
Well, regardless of how you feel about that, the loss puts Buccaneers now in a tie at the top of the NFC South, a division which you're gonna have to win most likely to get in the playoffs.
9:40
There will probably be no wild card from the NFC South. So both teams are four and three. Remember, the Falcons somehow beat the Bucs the first time they played- Yeah...
9:49
in a game they probably shouldn't have, or a game the Bucs probably should've won.
9:53
Now the Bucs tied with the Falcons, and they have the prospect of game two this coming week, uh, between the two clubs, and this becomes a massive game.
10:02
Because if the Bucs lose this, they also, they also are now lose a head-to-head tiebreaker in that division and will in effect, although they'll only be one game behind in the standings, in effect they'll be down two.
10:12
Both of those clubs with a, uh, nine point, nine and a half, pardon me, nine and a half season win total right now, but you see the, uh, the Bucs division odds much different, plus 150, Falcons minus 165.
10:22
Uh, it's also interesting with that Arizona win yesterday. Uh, if you go to the NFC West, Arizona, uh, and the Niners both one game behind the Seahawks. Seahawks four and three, Cardinals and Niners both three and four.
10:36
Rams, by the way, two and four. That division also a logjam, and the, not only with the d- with the Cardinals' win having implications, but now the Niners confirming Brandon Aiyuk with a tear of the ACL and the MCL.
10:48
Deebo's in the hospital with pneumonia. Uh, CMC they think, this is the, this is the company line right now. Yeah. The company line is that Christian McCaffrey will be back after the bye.
11:01
Which I, you can't tru- the problem, you can't trust anything the Niners say right now about McCaffrey, right? No.
11:05
I mean, the c- the company line [laughs] has been he's coming back, he's coming back, he's coming back, and it just keeps getting pushed back of when he's actually coming back.
11:13
Yeah, and then supposedly Drake Greenlaw sometime after that, I suppose. Uh, if you're wondering, okay, when's the bye, um, the bye will take place- Well, and you've even, you've even got what, Jennings-...
11:23
the week after this week. Yeah. So you're saying McCaffrey will be back not, uh, this Sunday, not the following Sunday, but the one after that they're saying.
11:29
And then it's, I mean, what, Jennings, Kittle, like it's- Uh-oh... it's a MASH unit right now. Yeah. It's incredible. Yeah. So those are two divisions that, uh, I don't think any of us expected to be where they are.
11:39
Well, maybe in the NFC South we did. We just didn't know that the Buccaneers would go from... I mean, I had them at the bottom of my top 10 power rankings.
11:46
Now both the Niners and Buccaneers, it's hard to really make the case that they can stay where they were, uh, moving forward.
11:54
[laughs] Interesting, uh, circumstances in the NFC West, uh, last night, and then of course in the NFC South in the game prior, too.
12:01
Drew Dincic with all his thoughts on the week gone by, all his bets in the NFL coming up, and his NBA season longs. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:22
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12:54
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13:04
Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. CB Moore, "Listening to Guessing Lines, and sometimes I wish it was podcast only because on that Bills line," um... Oh, it wasn't podcast only.
13:15
"Because on that Bills line, when Kelly told you minus three, I can just hear in your silence- [laughs]... blank you. No way, LOL." Yeah, it was kind of like that. Eh. Uh, Brian M., oh, I see, you wanted it not to be.
13:26
We showed the video yesterday. Brian, Brian- It, it was the, uh, it was the... I don't re- I can't remember. It's been a while since we've had one where your, your guess was as far off- Oh...
13:34
and then I came back over the top with, "Yeah, I bet it already. I bet the other side already." [laughs] I came back over the top. Brian M., "Nothing big going on in sports.
13:41
Probably need the segment with, uh, Drew to be an ANG special investigation into what kind of whale Drew identifies as. Being an avid fish keeper and a whale doesn't add up, unless he's keeping dinner as pets."
13:51
Oh, we'll get to that with Drew coming up.
13:52
Uh, Jesse Welch, "Not trying to pump up DraftKings or anything, but you can live stream all the national NFL games on the SportsBook app, and it's way closer to live than any other media form I've ever watched."
14:03
How about that? There, there are, I believe, multiple books doing that, which is kind of cool. I don't... I, I can't imagine sitting there watching on, watching on my phone like that. Yeah. But yeah.
14:14
[laughs] I hear you, though. Um, Drew Dincic, speaking of the man, @whale_capper. Uh, he's the host of not one, but two podcasts, The Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher.
14:24
He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line from the LBC. How you doing, Drew? I'm doing tremendously well. Uh, and yeah, I take g- uh, first of all, fish are, uh, friends, not food.
14:37
Uh, but, uh, I take exception to the idea that, uh, there's nothing going on in sports. Uh, the NBA starts today, guys. Yes. [laughs] This is a pretty big day.
14:46
Uh, there is a lot, uh, to cover, and I'm very excited to be on with you guys to hit the, uh, um, you know, to hit all the bases here. Yes. Um, actually, I'm ready to turn the page, uh, frankly.
14:56
Uh, [laughs] it's been an up and down season for me, uh, if I'm being honest, uh, in the NFL. Uh, and I finally... Uh, but I was treading water.
15:04
I was just, you know, poking out a, a small advantage every week, and then, um, uh, week seven was, uh, just an absolute blood bath. So, um- Ooh...
15:13
yeah, gave back all my winnings on the season, lost some season-long stuff that had some hope, uh, and now I'm, uh, I'm ready to, to turn the page to basketball. Well, well, well, before we do that, sorry.
15:22
[laughs] [laughs] What were the, what were the season longs that you have, uh, pronounced dead? Uh, well, I had, like, uh, superlative stuff for Chris Godwin, uh, season-long overs for him.
15:34
I'm assuming he's probably not playing any more football this year. He's done. Um- Yeah... Chris, uh, uh, uh, Mike Evans, uh, as well. Uh, and then, um, uh, Brandon Aiyuk. Uh, yeah. Oh my God.
15:45
There's just, like, a number of guys- Yeah... that, uh, I had, uh, season-long positives for that all went down. Uh, and, uh, yeah, I mean, uh, [laughs] and I keep p- dumping money into the DPOI market against T.J.
15:57
Watt, and even though he does very little on a given day, his Steelers continue to win, and he continues to shorten in price for the best defensive player of the year.
16:05
So now I'm about just ready to throw my hands up in that market as well, so. Yeah, no, every, every, all the player stuff has gone a little bit sideways for me.
16:12
I think if the votes were held today for MVP and DPOI and OPOI, I don't think I would have a single one come home. Uh, I would guess that right now you're looking at a Lamar Jackson, T.J.
16:24
Watt, Derrick Henry, um, and, uh, and then, uh, yeah, Jayden Daniels. Actually- I do, I have some Jayden Daniels... yeah, we got some. So that, that one I think would come home. We all got some Jayden Daniels.
16:35
Um, didn't you also... Your call on Nico Collins for OPOI- Gosh... was great, too, right? You had him, like, 66 to 1 or something?
16:42
Yeah, we had a little birdie tell us that that was a more serious injury than they let on, though, so I got off- Yeah... all that. Yeah. Um, okay, I know we got basketball to get to.
16:51
By the way, I love how Drew says, uh, "We can touch all the bases." The bases are the one thing he does not talk about- [laughs]... the actual bases. But he's around the bases.
17:00
Um- I don't know, I might go down there on, uh, on Friday. Oh, really? This is like a... This is big, man. It is huge. Like, this is- Yeah... crazy.
17:06
A- and I, I kind of knew Dodgers Yankees had history, but, uh, not as much as, uh, as it, it turns out they do. Like, my goodness, this is- Oh, yeah... this is incredible. It is the- Yeah...
17:16
it is the single most common World Series match-up- Yes... there has ever been. Amazing. I believe it's the 13th- [laughs] Yeah... if I'm not mistaken. Um- Absolutely ridiculous. Yeah, so- Yeah...
17:25
and the last one was 1981- Mm-hmm... where it was a, it was a broken-up, half-and-half strike season, which the Dodgers won that one. Um, Dodgers won that one.
17:37
Yankees won in '77 and '78, and then I wanna say before that it was probably Brooklyn and the Dodgers. Maybe I missed one somewhere in the middle. There was a couple. Yeah.
17:45
There w- I think there was one in '59, I wanna say- Okay. All right... uh, when the Yankees might have been playing at, like, the Coliseum. Okay. Uh, or no, the, the Dodgers- Dodgers... were playing at the Coliseum.
17:54
Yeah. And I, I, I want, I think the, I think, I think the Dodgers won that one 4-3, but- Oh, yeah, and it's, and by the way-... that, that's, that's from memory... there's five MVPs on the field. Yeah.
18:03
There's a sixth one who's on IR. I mean, you couldn't ask for... If you're the networks, you could not ask for a better match-up than this. Um, but we'll get to...
18:10
I know, Drew, so, so Drew may go to this game, which good for you. Let me, let me just wrap up the football stuff before we get to the NBA, 'cause I know you're, uh, fiending to do that.
18:17
What, did you bet anything in week eight moving forward? Uh, only bet I have in the queue so far for week eight is Rams plus three.
18:27
Uh, expecting Cu- Cooper Kupp back, uh, and expecting a lot of the same in terms of, um, the passing offense having some success against this Brian Flores blitz-heavy defense, uh, in the same way that Goff really knows how to handle that well.
18:42
Uh, Stafford and, uh, McVay are, uh, extremely solid at, uh, kind of taking advantage of, uh, a very aggressive defense that B- Brian Flores trots out there.
18:53
And on a short week and a quick turnaround and travel spot is pretty bad for, uh, Minnesota, honestly. Um, this, uh, sets up well in my opinion for the Rams to cover the number and potentially get the win.
19:04
I don't think the Rams are out of it in the NFC, um, but, uh, this game obviously, uh, if it results in a loss, would, uh, change my opinion. Yeah. That might be, uh, that might be a wrap at that point.
19:15
All right, let's go to the NBA. The NBA season special numbers game investigation reveals that the NBA season begins tonight. [laughs] Um, let us, let's, uh, let's wait for the individuals for the end here.
19:25
Let's start with team thoughts. Your Boston Celtics, you famously have, uh, have cashed in on them in the past year, in the recent past. What is the extent to which you are willing to bet them this year?
19:36
Uh, well, I mean, just for the record, um, I'd make them five wins clear of the next best team. Uh, not just the next best team in the East, but the next, next best team, period.
19:48
Uh, I would have my number two power rated team would be the Knicks. Uh, and I think just in general, the Eastern Conference to me is pretty blah, pretty boring.
19:57
Um, it is very, very clearly stratified in my opinion, as far as who's the best, who's the second, who's third, fourth, fifth, who's sixth, seventh, eighth, who's ninth, 10th, and then who's not going to be in the mix for the play-in.
20:10
Um, I, the only kind of real discrepancy I see in terms of market pricing for the Eastern Conference is, um, I have the 10th seed as the Detroit Pistons.
20:24
Uh, whereas, uh, you know, there seems to be some expectation that the Bulls are gonna make it back into the play-in for the millionth year in a row.
20:31
Um, I think the Bulls fl- slide out, I think the Pistons step in, and, uh, I have, um, Pistons exceeding their win total by almost six wins, and I have the Pistons to make the play-in at plus 350 in pocket, so- Ooh...
20:45
uh, I am, uh, I'm all about Detroit basketball in the Eastern Conference this year. [laughs] Detroit basketball. So Pistons to make the play-in tournament, and who didn't love the play-in tournament this, uh, past year?
20:55
L- Los Angeles Lakers, play-in champs- That's right... by the way. Never forget. I'm sure they... Did they put that banner up, by the way? Did they? I think they did. They hung the Commissioner's Cup banner, right?
21:03
I think they did. [laughs] I think they did. [laughs] All right. So Pistons to make the play-in tournament. Did you say- Well, you know the, you guys know the Clippers moved out of the crypt, so- Yes...
21:10
they had to kind of put, uh, you know, all the Clippers banners that left- That's right... they had to- They gotta fill those... they had to [laughs] Yeah... they had to put something there. [laughs] So much space.
21:18
So much empty room now. [laughs] So much space. Uh, by the way, just for giggles, stratify that for the Celtics one, and then just go down- Sure... the top eight. Sure, yes. Uh, so Celtics, or Celtics one with a bullet.
21:29
Uh, Knicks two with a bullet. Uh, Philly, Cleveland, Milwaukee are clustered three, four, five.
21:35
Uh, it really kind of comes down to health of Paul George to whether Philly is the three seed or the five seed in my opinion. Uh, people are way high on Cleveland.
21:42
I think basically the win totals are priced correctly for all of those teams, however. Uh, Indianapolis, uh, or Indiana Pacers, uh, I would have sixth. Orlando and Miami I have seven, eight.
21:53
There's pretty tight cluster between those teams as well. Um, I do think Orlando has the potential to be the best defense in basketball. That, uh, that roster is absolutely stacked with outstanding defensive personnel.
22:05
Um, and uh, kind of intrigued to see exactly how good they are over the balance of the season. But, uh, that said, uh, they are still a long shot to really take a huge step forward offensively, unless Mr.
22:16
Franz Wagner, my, uh, my hope for most improved player this year.
22:20
Uh, if he comes through, uh, and has a better year shooting this year, and maybe he really needs to be more aggressive shooting period, uh, then I could see the Orlando Magic taking a step forward.
22:30
But right now I'm, have them as the seven. Miami is your eight, Atlanta as the nine, Detroit as the 10, and then Chicago, Toronto, Charlotte, Brooklyn, and very, very much Washington are your lottery teams. All right.
22:42
Um, we'll get to one final, uh, future. We'll get, we'll, we'll find out what, again, that the Celtics, what, is Eastern Conference, to win Eastern Conference? That's your Celtics bet? Yeah.
22:50
I, I have as much of that as I would get, could get matched without having to- Okay... uh, without having to post up. [laughs] All right. Not to win it all- It's gonna be a while-... but to win-... till we cash that-...
23:00
to win the Eastern Conference... but I, uh- Yeah... my, my fair price for that, it starts with a minus. Okay. Uh, so I think Celtics- Ooh... to win the East is the best bet on the board in the futures world. Okay.
23:08
One more team future, and then beyond Franz, uh, Franz Wagner for most improved, his other individual awards. That's next. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:56
Obviously talking about the World Series when it comes to the ML, uh, to the Major League Baseball postseason, and, uh, I was wrong.
24:02
Not the 13th time the Yankees and Dodgers have played in the World Series, but the 12th time. 12th, yep. God, they're terrible. Yeah, jeez. Be better. I exaggerated. Um- Starting in 1941. Yeah.
24:14
Uh, 1955, the Dodgers win, I believe, was the big one for the, uh, Brooklyn franchise. Um, that was the, uh- Yeah, you only got three Dodgers wins in there. Yeah, mm-hmm Yeah, but the most recent They're due...
24:25
is the Dodgers from 18-- 1981. Uh, we get tweets at Betting the Book. Uh, Torch D, "I'm look- I'm sure looking like a savant taking Bucs minus three on the lookahead.
24:32
In addition to guessing lines, can we have a guessing Monday night injuries?" Yeah. That was a perfect example- Yeah... of that. Uh, that's why you be careful with those or don't bet them at all.
24:41
I am so glad I didn't bet that Bucs lookahead- [laughs]... at this point. Yes.
24:46
JasonH11, "The Niners are such a MASH unit that they just called up Radar, Klinger, uh, Klingon, Klinger, and Father Mulcahy to the practice squad."
24:53
That's, uh, I think those are MASH characters from the, uh, sitcom MASH. Oh, thank you, Gil. I think that's what those are. See, this is how this works. I explain Ne- uh, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles to him.
25:03
[laughs] He explains MASH to me. Okay? MASH was even before me, man. [laughs] I just barely knew that one. Uh, Matthew Mayberry, "They have, uh, NBA season-long specials on DraftKings.
25:10
Anthony Edwards to have 10 assists in any game this year is only minus 130. How in the hell is that not free money?" He says. Kelly's looking at me like, "No." Yeah. I, yeah, yeah. Yeah.
25:20
[laughs] Jack Cannon, SteelersJack50, "Two things I learned last weekend," he said. "Tom- uh, Mike Tomlin is smarter than me, and if the home team throws enough debris on the field, the call will be overturned."
25:30
Have you ever seen that in that, uh, in the Texas-Georgia game? God, what a bad look. Have you ever seen a, a PI flag picked up? Uh- They're like, "Ah, yeah" I mean, yeah, but not after all of that. Yeah.
25:43
No, I, I can't think of one offhand. Uh, Jason McKinney, "I'm hearing that CMC may not ever return to football and Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season." One of those things is true.
25:52
DJun, uh, DDe, uh, DGen Southern Gent, pardon me, "Cameron Dicker being perfect inside 50 all-time is a massive indictment," this is such a great point, "is a massive indictment of Brandon Staley's fourth down decision-making."
26:05
Great point, DGen. Yeah. Uh, much more importantly, though, are Bronny and LeBron a great all-time father-son NBA duo? [laughs] Or the greatest all-time father-son NBA duo? Please stop. I can't get into it.
26:15
Uh, let's see. Uh, all right, we'll get to some others coming up. Drew Dintzer kind enough to join us for a second segment. Again, uh, @whale_capper, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
26:24
Uh, so let's run through the ones you've given so far. Celtics to win the East, Drew. Uh, the Pistons to make the play-in tournament. Going out on a limb there. [laughs] You're going out on a limb.
26:33
Uh, but it's, uh, like you said, it's value's value, right? The biggest edge on the board, and it's not close- Okay... in my opinion. So there you go. [laughs] Uh, what price did you get on that, by the way?
26:42
Uh, I think it rounded out to, like, plus 155 or something like that. Okay. Um- All right... I'd have to, I'd have to do all the math, but, uh, that's kind of in the ballpark.
26:50
That's- My, my fare on that is minus money, by the way. I think it's better than 50/50 chance that, uh, the Celtics, uh, are your Eastern Conference champions for a second straight season. And Andy pushed back at me.
27:00
He's like, "Well, like, ha, uh, what if ha- something happens to Tatum?"
27:04
And I literally re-simmed my season assuming Tatum plays zero minutes for the Celtics, and I still have them as the second-best team in the East after the Celtics. Oh, man. [laughs] Wow. That's great. Okay.
27:13
Um, Grizzlies to make the playoffs plus 220. Explain, sir. Ooh, okay. So the Western Conference is kind of funny, um, because it's good compared to the East.
27:24
[laughs] The East has a very clear stratification of good and bad. The West is not really.
27:30
Um, the middle class of the West is all, like, kind of fine margins between the second-best team and the 10th-best team, which is wild. And, uh, right now, I make the Grizzlies the 11th-best team.
27:43
And if there's sort of a theme across the way that I project the season, and, um, and this kind of goes back to my process where I ba- I basically just took fantasy rankings, which, um, not fantasy rankings, but fantasy projections for minutes, uh, across all sort of the major sites and, and s- and averaged them, uh, actually weighted averaged them to come up with, uh, expected minutes projections for all the players, combined that with my player ratings to get team ratings, um, carried that through to, you know, season wins.
28:10
So when I did that on the first crack, it basically popped that, uh, you know, all of the Western Conference teams with, like, these legacy stars, uh, who are old and are kind of, you know, people are f- it's fun to bet against these type of players, the LeBrons of the world, the KDs of the world.
28:25
You know, these guys are old news. Um, all of those type of teams, uh, popped as value [laughs] in the wins market.
28:31
And then all of the teams that have, like, young, up-and-coming, you know, talent like the OKCs, the Minnesotas, the Memphises, the Po- the, you know, the, they were all popping as, uh, as, uh, you know, over bet.
28:43
And so I was, "Okay, well, maybe I gotta go look at my minutes projections again. Maybe there's gonna be more, um, you know, more load management that I'm just not accounting for with these fantasy minute projections."
28:54
And so I, you know, I kind of adjusted things down, gave, took games away for some of the older players, and still have a meaningful edge on the Warriors and the Suns, uh, to be, you know, much better than market expects in the Western Conference.
29:07
And then on the flip side, uh, I'm cool on Men- Memphis. Uh, Memphis right now is a pretty fragile team as far as I can tell you. Uh, I don't really love the way this roster is composed right now.
29:16
Um, you got a chance to see a lot of the depth last year as they were broadly injured across the, uh, front line, and, uh, the depth is not good.
29:25
Uh, and they kind of have already gotten themselves into a little bit of an injury s- situation here, where they don't really have, uh, a ton of talent in the f- in the front court.
29:35
And, uh, Ja Morant is, in my opinion at least, an injury waiting to happen with his style of play and the fact that he now has this recurring, uh, you know, hand-wrist injury.
29:43
So I am kind of, uh, buyer beware on this Grizzlies team. J- And it's not as much as I don't like the players, I don't like the way they're put together.
29:51
It's more of a just they look fragile to me, and the West is crowded. Uh, somebody's gotta fall out of the mix, and Memphis for me is, is the first team out.
30:00
Uh, Pelicans are also, uh, cool, uh, for me, and that's mostly just because I don't like the way the roster is constructed right now. I don't think it's a finished product.
30:07
I expect that they're gonna end up making some more moves.
30:10
But, uh, you have two really, really questionable defensive pieces in Zion and De- Dejounte Murray, who are gonna be on the court for a lot of clutch time, which means you're gonna need better defensive players around them.
30:20
And outside of Herb Jones, they don't really have that right now, so- I'm not exactly sure what the Pelicans are, but right now I project them to get 10th in the West.
30:28
Um, people are way, way, way high on the Spurs in my opinion, and I get it that Wemby is the next great player in the NBA, and he may be in the MVP discussion this year at points.
30:38
But, uh, for me, the rest of that team is absolute hot garbage, and I will be blown away if the Spurs are able to sustain winning basketball with the way that that roster is put together. So, um, I
30:50
am basically just kind of banking on this being the last hurrah type of season for the Kevin Durants and the LeBron Jameses and the Steph Currys of the world, and I think, uh, those teams, uh, kind of are the teams that really pop as value for me when I look at the, uh, wins totals.
31:05
All right, let me, uh, let me clarify. Grizzlies to miss the playoffs. I think I misspoken- Miss... said make. Uh, Grizzlies- Miss... to miss the playoffs at plus 220 in the Western Conference.
31:13
And now w- let's give it a minute on all of these. You, you mentioned Franz Wagner of the Orlando Magic to win Most Improved. Give me a little capsule on that.
31:21
Okay, so Franz Wagner is probably the most important offensive player for a young, burgeoning Magic team.
31:28
Uh, and he had an off season last year shooting, which really kind of dragged down his, uh, just his overall offensive output.
31:34
A, an up, an up year shooting the three is gonna help launch him from 19 points a game to, say, 24. Uh, and if the Magic are, are...
31:41
If he is playing that well, the Magic are winning games because their defense is just unim- un- unimpregnable.
31:47
Uh, and I think that, uh, that he'll make his first All-Star team, and he'll be your, uh, your market leader, uh, come February. So Franz Wagner is, is a really fun, important player to watch. Okay.
31:57
Uh, and then, uh, yeah, to piggyback on, uh, the Suns, like, I, I'm, so I'm projecting the Suns to be in the 50 win range, which is not, a 52 win range, which is not like, you know, it's not like write home about it.
32:10
Um, oh, I'm sorry. I was looking at Philly, not, not Phoenix. Philly, uh, Phoenix I have in the, uh, 55 win range.
32:15
Uh, so I'm almost seven wins over their win total, and I was th- thinking hard like, "Well, how do you attack this?" There's not really alt win totals to, to bet into for me, uh, for NBA wins.
32:25
So, uh, I went to the futures market. I played a little KD MVP 90 to 1. Um, I played some Grayson Allen to win Sixth Man of the Year.
32:34
People maybe don't know, he was a starter last year for the Suns, and he is gonna come off the bench this year for them.
32:39
Now, he is dealing with an Achilles injury right now, so maybe now is not the best time to bet this.
32:43
But, um, people are sleeping on, uh, how, you know, his stats could take a step forward if he is the first guy off the bench and he's going up against, uh, bench mobs.
32:52
Uh, and in j- just in general, I would expect he closes, uh, for the Suns. So he kind of fits the perfect archetype for Sixth Man of the Year.
33:00
And, uh, I don't know if you guys know this, but, uh, Mike Budenholzer, he's back. Coach Bud. He is coaching- Yeah... the Suns. Um, he has perennially gotten the best out of teams like this.
33:11
Uh, his first year in Milwaukee took them to 60 wins. Uh, I would m- say that that's probably the ceiling for the Suns.
33:19
Um, but, uh, you know, certainly the Suns getting a top two seed in the West I feel like is a possibility. Again, like two through, uh, about, wait, it's two through nine for me are only separated by a few wins.
33:33
Uh, so you only need a little bit to go right f- to, to really secure that two seed.
33:37
And if it is the Suns, then believe me, Mike Budenholzer will be definitely at the top of a lot of voting ballots for Coach of the Year. [upbeat music] All right, Grayson Allen, Sixth Man of the Year.
33:46
Coach Bud, Mike Budenholzer. Mike Budenholzer, uh, to win Coach of the Year with the Suns. Franz Wagner, Most Improved with the Magic. Pistons to make the Play-In Tournament, plus 350.
33:55
Grizzlies to miss the playoffs at plus 220. And the Celtics, as he steps out on a limb, but says there's the most value on this, Celtics to win the East. Drew, thank you so much, man. Appreciate it.
34:04
Best of luck to you guys. Enjoy the season. Drew Dinsick, pumped for the NBA, that's for sure. We'll come back, World Series next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:20
Back on the numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell, and I know you're gonna have a chance to, uh, talk about your NBA plays, uh, later in the show. Yeah.
34:30
Any reaction to Drew's? Yeah, I, I like a lot of them. Uh, Pistons, so I played, uh, a little bit different just, j- just going with some awards markets with Cade Cunningham.
34:40
Like, I played Most Improved, but like I, yeah, I kinda got a couple tweets about that Central, uh, Central Division. I do like the Pistons a little bit over their win total.
34:48
Make the Play-In, I don't know if I'll go that far, but I do think the East gets weak as you get to the back end. It's much like we saw a year ago. So I think you could make a case for some of these teams.
34:58
Um, you know, I have an over on the Hornets. I know JVT, uh, Zach, and I are all kind of excited about them. They're a team I, I think I could make a case for there as well.
35:05
I agree with him what he's, w- w- uh, with what he's talking about with the Grizzlies. West is just crowded. They, it's crowded.
35:11
There's some teams that are gonna miss out or a team or two that's gonna miss out that everybody's expecting, uh, to be up there.
35:17
Jo- Ja Morant ha- to his point, Ja Morant has to have a MVP-like season, I think, for that Grizzlies team to really be near the top of the, top of the Western Conference.
35:26
That's not to say he can't do that, but, um, the way he plays and the, the rest of that roster is just not very deep.
35:32
The Pelicans I was kind of chuckling at, 'cause I don't know if you, uh, know this, Gil, but they didn't fully, uh, go along with my planned redesigns of the team of just, you know, lose, lose a bunch of these pieces, build around Zion.
35:43
But they're trying in the sense that they're not gonna go with a center at all, uh, this year to start. So- Hmm... they're gonna have a starting lineup of very small guys around, uh, Zion Williamson.
35:54
We'll have to see, uh, how that works out. Uh, I like, I really like the Grayson Allen Sixth Man of the Year call.
36:00
I do think that, that of all the Suns bets I've heard, I think that's maybe my favorite because of everything that we expected out of Phoenix last year, he's really the only guy who did his job.
36:09
Like, he came in there and shot 46% from three, played in almost every single game.
36:13
So like Drew's talking about him likely coming off the bench now, I would wait till we know for sure he's fully healthy, but I think that is a bet I'll get involved in, and then we were talking off the air.
36:23
[laughs] Bud, Bud's a popular play for Coach of the Year, and I get it, I get it. Uh, JVT and Drew both have the Suns very high in the West, which, um, I can't get fully to that point on them, but I understand it.
36:35
Um, and then the, I forget the one, the last one he had. But yeah, that was, uh- No... uh, a lot of the ones I gr- oh, no, the Franz Wagner. That was one. I bet it a year ago.
36:44
There's always this trick in betting, right, where you bet these awards and you bet them like a year early. You can't really get back on board again. So I, I think that's where I'm at with Franz, but I understand.
36:53
And Drew was telling us that his, uh, podcast partner, Andy Malatore, they were talking on their, on their podcast about, uh, are there any NBA rule changes this year?
36:59
And Andy immediately quipped, "Yeah, I, I hear you're allowed to take your s- your, get your son into the league this year." [laughs] Yes. That's allowed. Um- It is gonna be crazy tonight.
37:07
The Gr- the Griffies are in t- in attendance. Ken Griffey Jr. and Sr. will be going to this game. So the, so the kid has to play a little basically? I like, I feel like that he has to play. Yeah.
37:16
They're, if, if Ken and Ken Jr. are showing up. I mean, like, don't you have to do a LeBron Bronny, like, pick and roll, like, just to, just to do it? Oh, God. Um-
37:26
Since, by the way, since we're talking about NBA awards, real quick because of the game last night, Lamar Jackson, 158.1 his passer rating.
37:34
I believe that was just shy of a 158.3 perfect passer rating, if I'm not mistaken. Just an unbelievable performance- Yeah... uh, by Lamar yesterday. Uh, 17 of 22 for 281, five touchdowns, no picks, nine carries for 52.
37:49
He did lose a fumble. Um- Did, did you see his- Just ridiculous... did you see the stat on his the all-time list of guys with most games with five pass touch- uh, uh, five passing touchdowns and zero INTs?
38:02
Five passing- Yeah... not rushing. Yeah. Okay? Uh, it's Tom Brady and Drew Brees with eight each, okay? And then it is Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Lamar Jackson all with five. Wow.
38:14
And the total number of starts it took to get there, only 84 Lamar. Everybody else is 200-something. How many people would've lost that bet? I, r- yeah. Yeah.
38:23
Um, as he tries to get his, he's not trying 'cause he couldn't care less about this, but it would be his third MVP award if he does win it this year. And with that performance last night, he has become the short shot.
38:35
Plus 225, he, uh, is shorter than Patrick Mahomes, who's plus 475, Josh Allen five to one, Jared Goff also in single digits at plus 850. Everybody else 13 to 1 or longer.
38:47
That's probably the correct pecking order right now, I think. I think. I don't know if, I think- I mean, Lamar sh-... I think we're, I think we're getting things twisted with Patrick Mahomes.
38:57
I don't understand how he can be this short right now. He has more interceptions than touchdowns. I know the team's undefeated. Right. Well- But like, it's, I think it's a reversal of everything we said preseason.
39:06
Everything we said before the season was, and Andy Reid had no chance of winning Coach of the Year because he has a Patrick Mahomes, right? I'll go reverse on that now.
39:15
This team is 5-0 and the defense is playing lights out. I think Andy Reid's actually more live for Coach of the Year than Mahomes is for MVP right now.
39:23
Uh, there's some other interesting, uh, so, so J- But I think Josh Allen, I mean, come on. He's got zero INTs. Uh, Lamar Jackson also went to 23 and one straight up against NFC teams last night.
39:34
Which is just, that's another one of those ridiculous stats. [laughs] That's incredible. Like what, like I don't even know if it makes, like, does it make sense? Like I, let me go check out every one of those games.
39:42
That was the, uh, the NFL draft revenge game last night. Remember when Baker got drafted first in 2018- Oh, yeah... and, uh, Lamar 32nd last in the first round by, via trade, by the way, by the Baltimore Ravens.
39:55
Um, there's other ones. Jayden Daniels week to week, right? So Offensive Rookie of the Year, that didn't really change much. Yeah, it didn't. Um, because of the uncertainty about Jayden Daniels.
40:04
He's correctly the favorite. Um, Caleb is lurking somewhere, uh, there. It, it should shorten a little bit, right? Jayden is minus 145. Caleb is plus 115. It is a mano a mano race at this point.
40:16
Nobody else really in the mix per the market. Um, how about, uh, Comeback Player of the Year? You wanna do Comeback Player of the Year real quick? Yeah, I do think it's, I think it's interesting.
40:25
I mean, look, if you had any interest of getting in on Caleb Williams at any point, like now is the time, right? Like they're gonna play- They haven't played anybody, man. No, I know, but like they're gonna play- Yeah...
40:34
the Commanders this weekend. You miss out on that head-to-head matchup, m- you know, most likely. Um- Oh...
40:40
but I, in one week, a- as long as, if Caleb Williams picks up a win and has a decent game, like these, these, and Jayden Daniels doesn't play, these odds are different next week.
40:49
Uh, Kirk Cousins three to one for Comeback Player of the Year. JK Dobbins, wow, that's rando, plus 330. [laughs] Joe Burrows four to one, Aaron Rodgers and DeMar both plus 550. Look at that, DeMar Hamlin is plus 550.
41:03
Remember I asked that- Yeah... question of Aaron Schatz, is this a possibility? He was like, "Oh, that's an interesting question." Yeah, it's still an interesting question. I, I could- I have no answers. I can't bet it.
41:12
I c- I have no answers here. I can't bet it because all we're left with- Yeah... is asking about whether he qualifies or not, right? And that's- Sam Darnold's 16 to one. Sam Darnold back to 6.
41:22
So they reposted and Sam Darnold is still getting bet. Oh. I heard a lot of love for Nick Chubb too before this past week, but now he's back in the lineup, so a lot, I know a lot of people who bet Nick Chubb.
41:31
He's 15 to one. Um- Like Jameis is up there. Why is Jameis up there? [laughs] Because you never know what's about to happen, Kelly. And lastly, we have one more that we wanna look at here. This market kills me, man.
41:41
What do we have here? We have, uh, one more market in the NFL? Yes, no? Uh, Offensive Player of the Year. Offensive Player of the Year. You wanna hit that? Derek Henry's down to even money now.
41:47
Yeah, well, after that last night. He didn't even, he, he had four carries for 23 yards in the first half. Yeah. He wasn't even part of the game plan, and then they're like, "Okay, Derek, we have a big lead.
41:55
You wanna, uh, you wanna seal this for us? How about 15 for 169 when all is said and done?" 11 for 146 in the second half alone.
42:04
Yeah, I think, I think it was one of my are we sure questions last week, but the, I think this market is Henry or Barkley already. Like I, I like- It's Henry or Barkley... I know it's early, but- I think so too...
42:13
I think one of those two. Whoever stays healthy is probably winning [laughs] that award. Um, Derek Henry, even money. Saquan, as, uh, Scott Hansen called him, three to one in this market.
42:24
Uh, real quick 'cause I'm gonna get Paul Spore's thoughts on the World Series, uh, coming up, and I'm curious to hear what he, uh, has to say about the, uh, Dodgers and the Yankees, which begins on Friday at Chavez Ravine.
42:33
So you have games one and two Friday, Saturday.
42:35
Skip Sunday, then you would do Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, I believe it is, for the games, uh, and Wednesday obviously if necessary, game five at, uh, Yankee Stadium, and then day off back to Chavez Ravine for what would be Friday and Saturday of next week as well.
42:50
Did I get that right? Okay. But, uh, Fr- Friday- Rockies... Monday, Wednesday, you had that right. For game five's Wednesday. Um, I'm sorry. No, I'm screwing up. I'm going the other way here. Friday, Saturday- Yeah...
43:02
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday. That's what- Game six Friday... that, that's what I said. Okay. So I got that right. Yeah, you're right. So- You're right... uh, so it could get into November if, if this goes long.
43:11
Um, I already bet the Dodgers at minus 124 in the series. I see it's like minus 135 right now.
43:18
I actually think, now remember, if they had, if the, both of the championship series had been wrapped up in five games, this would've started sooner. This would've started tonight.
43:26
But because the Mets and the Dodgers went to six, it reverts back to its original schedule time beginning on Friday. Why do I focus on that schedule? I really believe, Kelly, that the time off here helps the Dodgers.
43:38
The reason I believe that is the Yankees have gotten some, not that the Dodgers haven't, but in the case of the Yankees, they've gotten some very outlying performances in this postseason that just were nowhere to be found in the regular season.
43:50
I get it, the Tommy Edmonds of the world for the Dodgers, same sort of thing, but the Dodgers have so many ways to beat you offensively that I don't care if it was short rest or long rest, they're, they're not as, they're not as, uh, sort of, uh, impactful in terms of, uh, g- they, they won't get impacted with whatever rest.
44:06
But with the Yankees, I get the feeling there will be some reversion here.
44:10
The, uh, Gleyber Tor- the Gleyber Torreses and the Anthony Volpes of the world who have been getting on base, I don't know, you rest and you sort of have time off and you come back, I think you kind of revert to your regular season performance.
44:22
Um, does Giancarlo Stanton stay in this hot mode, or does he revert- Yeah... back to sort of his normal self? I just think the Yankees are more susceptible to that kind of thing.
44:31
I think the Yankees, I think if the Yankees are to win, they've gotta get to that Dodgers starting pitching early so that then they can start to face relievers over and over.
44:40
But then again, if they don't, again, the Dodgers have so many of them, um, that I just think it's the margin of error for the d- for the Yankees is so slim to me. I've got the Dodgers in five.
44:52
Jason Weingarten, who wants you to know he's not a Dodgers fan, has the Dodgers [laughs] in a sweep. We'll get Spore's thoughts coming up later on the show. Coming back on The Numbers Game.
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