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Oct 25, 2024
A Numbers Game | October 25, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | October 25, 2024 | Hour 1
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Transcript
0:00
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0:25
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you. That's good Friday morning to you.
0:37
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com/gameplus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. I already take an assume we appreciate it. We really do.
0:45
I don't say that just, uh, just sort of mechanically every morning. That's right. We do. We're grateful. It's Gil Alexander, that's Kelly Bidlin, everybody, live from Circa. It's a numbers game. How you doing, man?
0:55
Doing well. How about you? You know. Um, how about that game last night? We'll get to that momentarily. I wanna talk about the ending of that game.
1:02
Today, though, uh, Paul Sporer will join us, last sort of look at the World Series before it begins, the World Serious. Uh, Paul Carr on the Premier League, not to mention our number two, of course.
1:15
Well, we do a little Are We Sure as well, a little, uh, Friday tradition. Are We Sure, a Joe Peta-inspired segment. He was the one that first said, "You know what you guys should do?
1:23
You guys, every Friday should be like, 'Are we sure about this stuff in the NFL?'" [laughs] That's true. So we're gonna do that.
1:27
Uh, but then, uh, Friday football, uh, really kicks in in earnest, hour number two, Chris Fallica, Steve Fezzik, Dr. Bob. Does it get better than that? I don't think so.
1:35
You remember the old, old Milwaukee beer commercial? It don't get no better than this. I remember, uh, good old Milwaukee. Haven't had one of those in a while. [laughs] I hear that.
1:43
I'm not a beer guy, but I hear that's a fine beer beverage. It is. I- Yeah... well, one of my favorite choices in college, Gil. Yeah, old Milwaukee. Uh, so we'll do that as well. And Steve Fezzik among, uh, so c- Dr.
1:53
Bob on college football, Chris Fallica, college football and beyond. Steve Fezzik wants to talk about all things, you know, NFL, week eight, week nine. He'll have a look-ahead bet or two or three.
2:04
I'm not sure what he wants to do in the end. Um, and you know what he else, what else he wants to do? Uh, his top five dining experiences in Vegas. That's right. Notice he didn't say top five restaurants.
2:17
He said top five dining experiences. Oh, I noticed. Yeah. So, so I'm really expecting a, uh, a great breakdown of the full experience for each place. Oh, I'll hold him to it. Yeah, yeah.
2:27
I'll be like, "I need more experience for this list." 'Cause the answer can't just be, "This, this dish is great at this spot." Right, 'cause I saw a couple on the list.
2:33
I'm like, "Well, that's, the, the food is good, but not great," and he's the one, that's why it's experience. So we'll get into that with him. Uh, that game last night, Minnesota and the Rams, the Rams win it 30 to 20.
2:45
Um, so all those folks who loved the Rams, uh, they end up being corroborated in a game that traded touchdowns early to make it 14-14. You thought there was gonna be a million points scored. Yeah.
2:55
And then the flags came, and you and I were talking a little bit about this this morning, which is, what do you really say, be- besides the ending of this game, which we'll get to, what do you really say about this game?
3:08
And you, you responded, "Yeah, I was wondering why, like, in the second quarter I lost interest," kind of thing. Mm.
3:13
And we determined it was because of the stagnant nature of the game starting to- I felt like there was 900 flags in that second. Yeah.
3:18
After, like, like you said, after a great first quarter where you're like, "Why didn't I bet the over, A?" [laughs] Like, it looks like this is gonna sail over. Right.
3:25
Me, neither one of these defenses could stop the other one. Uh, and then man, it just got bogged down it felt like in the second quarter, and yes, I had NBA on too, so it was easy to distract me. Yeah.
3:35
[laughs] But, like, that, I, it just felt like that was the rest of the game. It kind of killed it until really the end then for me. In the end, 15 accepted penalties, 15 accepted penalties.
3:45
It was a bit of a, uh, mano a mano receiver, uh, duel between Justin Jefferson, who ended up, uh, eight for 115, and he got to those eight for 115 really early. Yeah.
3:56
Um, and then didn't get anything after that, and then the return of the great Puka Nacua. God, was he awesome. How good is he at football? So good.
4:04
Seven for 106, not just that, but he's, you know, available as a, uh, as a guy who can, uh, carry the football as well, great blocker. Uh, made a great block on a fourth down conversion in this game.
4:14
I wanna get to the end, though, because obviously Rams folks get the money, but as far as the total is concerned, [laughs]
4:20
uh, it's t- it's 28 to 20 Rams at the two-minute warning, and the Vikings have no timeouts left, right?
4:29
So you run a play, you stay in bounds, and what, the Vikings at best, if you don't get the first down, the Vikings at best get the football down one score- Yep... with, you know, 115-ish left. Instead, Cooper Kupp,
4:45
he goes out of bounds. Yeah. Like, his foot goes out of bounds. They push him out, and so the Vikings are given at least 30 seconds, if not 40 seconds more in this football game.
4:55
What are your thoughts on just that play effort sort of thing with Kupp? 'Cause I don't, uh, to me, I guess it's just more of a it, it happened. I don't, I don't- It happened, but that's, that's a cardinal sin, man.
5:06
That could've been the difference between a win and a loss right there. But he's go- he's going for the first down, too, right?
5:10
So that, that's where it got a little, uh, that's where it got a little difficult to me where it's just not the, "Dude, you gotta do everything you can to stay in bounds," 'cause I understand if you pick up the first, then you're in good position to, to put this thing away.
5:22
Right. Well, that's true. It was third and 12. He got nine of them- Right, yeah... before stepping out of bounds. Yeah, that's a, that's a valid point, but still. [laughs] But still, but still, because, like- Yeah...
5:30
when it happens, you're like, "Oh, boy." Pero todavía. [laughs] I believe is what the Spanish folks, uh, would, would say. So then, so the Vikings do get the ball back, but they get it with 146 left.
5:39
Again, down, it's 28-20. Now down one score, so they could still theoretically tie this football game, force overtime. Uh, the total was, depending on where you got it, right? Either what? 48 and a half or maybe 48.
5:56
Maybe you were on a push- Yeah... regardless, right? We did see some under money come in late. Yeah. So that was like 46 and a half close to DraftKings, I think. Oh, wow. I didn't even see that. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
6:05
I didn't even see that. So the, well, the 46 and a halves, those were already over. Anything up to 48. Right. It was 48 at that moment. Uh, but a lot of people, this was still in the balance on the total. Mm-hmm.
6:15
And so, uh, the Vikings do end up getting the ball at the five-yard line, but again, with much more time than they anticipated having, didn't matter.
6:22
On second down and 10 at the five, Sam Darnold sacked by Byron Young in the end zone. Safety, all the unders go to die, and the overs are winners. All the pushes go to die.
6:35
Except for there's one little thing on that play. It was Sam Darnold, uh, was blatantly face masked. Yep. Blatantly so. Yep. [laughs] And, uh, it went uncalled.
6:46
Now, if you're a Vikings backer in this game, and Will Hill is a Vikings fan, and he was saying this all night, I think he's right. The Vikings didn't get a favorable whistle generally speaking through the night. Mm.
6:56
Like, there was a few third downs in the first half where the, the, they just kept bailing out the Rams with flags. Oh, it was incredible. Yeah. What, what did they get, four, four first downs?
7:04
At least it was four, I think. I remember three at a minimum. Okay. Yes. But it just kept happening on third down. So now this one was the most blatant of them all. It shouldn't have resulted in a safety.
7:12
It should have resulted in a 15-yard penalty. The Vikings would have matriculated that much further down the football field.
7:17
Obviously, they'd still be in their own territory, but they would still be in the ballgame down eight.
7:21
Instead, it goes unflagged, and it's Katie bar the door, because then they did that whole thing where you have to, like, declare that...
7:28
Remember that Miami-Tennessee thing, where Miami had to do this, and Tennessee ended up with the ball at the 10-yard line on a penalty? Right, right. Yeah, yeah. It was that weird situation.
7:35
Anyway, that was the ballgame, 'cause the no onside kick was, uh, was accomplished. But the, the official explanation
7:42
from the, uh, I wanna say it was from the referee, maybe it wasn't the referee, but one of the officials, whoever was doing the, uh, the official explanation after the game said, uh, that he personally was behind the quarterback, that the sack occurred on the other side of him, so he couldn't see the face mask.
7:58
In other words, Darnold was facing the other direction. And he said the umpire had two players in between him and the actual face mask, so he was blocked.
8:07
He was, uh, obstructed from seeing it, so therefore, no face mask was called. And anyway, that's how all your unders and pushes went to die.
8:13
Yeah, you're gonna see a lot of replays this morning of a, uh, a great camera shot from behind the end zone that shows the referee exactly where he is, with what seems to be a very clear line of sight- Ah... to the play.
8:23
So- So that-... I'm a little confused about the actual- That explanation is, is, should be disputed, is what you're saying. Uh, yeah, yeah. Here's, here's the other thing that I think needs to be brought up with this.
8:31
Well, first of all, when did the whole notion of replay assist happen? Were we informed that this thing was gonna blossom? Right.
8:38
Like, how many games are we watching now we're like, "Oh, replay assist, we don't have to look at it. Replay assist said it is a..." Replay assist doesn't cover this.
8:45
So it's, it's also a little bit of mishegoss, because it's like, okay, well, why? If you have this thing, and you clearly see this, why doesn't it cover that?
8:54
Well, 'cause we have to put, I guess, the parameter at some point. Like, I don't know. I'm like, I'm kind of tired after years and years of, like, com- like, of something like this happens, right? Yeah.
9:03
And then we're always like, "What's the point of replay?" 'Cause it do- it, it- That's right... we just, we just have to keep bringing it up, 'cause if you're gonna miss something as obvious as this- Correct...
9:11
what's the overall point of the entire thing? Couldn't agree more. If you're going to have the, if you have the technology, sound like a $6 million- If you have the technology [laughs]... $6 million man.
9:21
We have the technology. No, I mean, i- if you have it- But-... use it. Use it to the full extent of the technology. Right. Right? But, like, no, D- dude, to the point you're making too, the, i- it's different, fine.
9:31
The whole NFL review system we've li- we've lived under for years now, fine. That's one thing. But if you wanna go with these assisted calls that we're getting, then where's the assistance?
9:41
Anybody who has a TV at home sees that's, uh, sees that's a face mask. Yeah. Well, what do we... I'm with you. What, what is the- And I say this as a neutral observer.
9:48
I was not involved, but I'm just saying- Me either... putting my, putting my f- you know, feet in other people's shoes, or what is it? Putting yourself in other people's shoes.
9:55
Um, yeah, I could see how that would be frustrating. It'd be weird if you only put your feet in other- Yeah, no, I-... people's shoes... I couldn't get, come up with the expression.
10:02
[laughs] Uh, by the way, I, uh, just sort of, uh, these are my NFL bets. Can we start with those? Yeah, yeah.
10:07
'Cause I, uh, I ended up, you know, I gotta come up with s- with five millions plays, and I bet all my millions plays in the end. It wasn't very easy coming up with four and five, let's just say that.
10:18
Uh, the first one that I made this week was Seattle plus three, uh, just because that was the guessing lines one, where I'm just like, I, I don't understand why Buffalo's a full three-point favorite, and I get it.
10:26
There's no D.K. Metcalf. But I have faith in Mike McDonald to, uh, dream something up here, where I just don't...
10:33
Again, I, if Buffalo was a one and a half point favorite or even two and a half, anything below three, okay, maybe you can convince me. But the three, the full three, really? I don't know.
10:42
Um, I ended up- I, I think D.K.'s still got a chance, too. Still, and still has a chance. That's right. He's not officially out.
10:48
Okay, doubtful on the injury report is what I'm seeing, but I thought I heard language yesterday from McDonald that they were okay playing him even if he doesn't practice this week, as long as he's feeling okay by s- uh, Saturday.
10:58
By the way, just a note on injury reports. Do you miss the probable designation, or do you have no missing of that at all? Remember how that went away a few years ago? Oh, yeah.
11:05
I have no idea what, what exists and what doesn't these days between- I think doubtful and questionable... NBA and NFL and everything- Yeah... you know? Remember they got rid of probable. Yeah. Used to be probable.
11:13
Uh, I ended up with taking the Saints plus seven and a half. That's in millions, and I took that, uh, also in real life, because it's not really a, a backing of the Saints.
11:22
It's how are the Chargers seven and a half point favorites against anybody? I, I'm with you on that one. I didn't bet it, but- They've won-... it, it very m- very well might end up as a millions play for me...
11:31
they've won one game since, like, September 15th, I believe. I'll take the seven and a half, and again, [laughs] I don't wanna watch it, but I just wanna find out what the final score is at the end.
11:41
Is, is it seven and a half in millions? I didn't even look at the millions, so- It is seven and a half in millions, yes. It is seven and a half in millions. Interesting. I ended up with the Bengals.
11:48
If you go up and down the Bengals' schedule, um, the losses are not shameful at all, and I get it. They are, you are what your record is.
11:57
But, uh, two and a half against the Eagles, I ended up laying it with the Cincinnati Bengals, believing that they are actually the better football team and getting less than three here ultimately.
12:06
I was convinced to play this. Um, we'll get to the other two in a bit. We'll take a soccer break. Well, actually, we'll do the last two coming up on the other side, and then soccer with Paul Carr next.
12:22
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa, Gil Alexander, Kelly Tilghman alongside. Can I read some tweets? Is that, is that allowed this early? Go for it.
12:32
Uh, Steve Fezzik, "Let's go, big Friday," he said. He's very excited. Oh man, there's like tons of tweets. Steve's got a lot of things to talk about. Uh, he does. I hope, I hope we can get Dr. Bob in.
12:43
And he keeps editing and rehashing and then, like, revamping what he wants to talk about. Yeah, Steve, you're done. Steve- I've had to resend in your graphics three times... Steve, we're doing, we're doing a show.
12:51
[laughs] It's over. Whatever you got, we'll do it. Uh, this is, uh, let's see here. This is, uh, Joe Lateri, "You have any strong plays on the ATP today?" I do not on the men's, uh, tennis tour.
13:03
Uh, Uncle Bush, "I can hear- Is this the final right now? I don't- The Swiss? I don't know if it's the final. Or is it sem- uh, I'm not sure Oh, quarters, quarters. Uh, yeah, it's not the final.
13:12
Uh, Uncle Bush, "I can hear Todd Wishner rant on the next pod now with his announcer bit. Darn- [laughs] Darnold drops back in the end zone, there's a face mask that almost decapitates Darnold."
13:21
[laughs] Todd does this bit where he loses his breath. Uh, but the refs decide to, uh, screw Todd, that's a safety. There goes the under, because the refs and Hashem Haybe, uh, Hashem Haybe. Yes, that's right.
13:29
Todd is al- Todd has this bit on the Megapod where he hears one of our picks, and I never see it coming, and then he acts like, "Wait a minute," and he does an announcer giving the final play that ends up messing, you know, making my pick a loser.
13:41
Well, that's what happened to him. He had the under in this game. Oh, no. Yeah, so there you go, Uncle Bush. Well done. Karma. Uh, Master of Puppets, "Thoughts on the World Series?
13:48
I think if you like the Yankees, a Cole ticket for MVP should be an option, 33 to 1. And if he wins two or all three of his starts and New York wins the series, 1000%," Master of Puppets said, "he will win MVP."
13:58
I'd say it's a little less than 1000%, but I hear what you're saying. "Thoughts? Pitching game one, four, and seven makes this a nice ticket."
14:04
There's always the one, four, seven scenario, 100%, and that exists with any team and their ace that would go hypothetically one, four, seven.
14:12
And so yes, if you are a Yankees, if you believe in the Yankees and you believe it's a long series, absolutely, uh, that's a way to go. This is from, uh, Roger Jones.
14:21
"Morning Gil, just had a question maybe for Fezzik or his ilk." Yeah, oh, he's got an ilk, all right.
14:26
Uh, "When the Rams scored to go up 27 to 20 pending the extra point, is there any rise in win expectations by going for two?" Oh, I got a lot of these last night.
14:34
Let's- we'll ask Fezzik, because I got, like, three or four people last night who when the Rams went up 27-20, they wanted them to go for two to go up 29-20. Okay.
14:43
Wishner was chiming in, chiming in and saying he didn't agree with that, but I'm curious what Fezzik would say.
14:47
I did wonder about it when they scored, but I pretty quickly, when they went to kick the extra point, I was like, "Yeah, okay." Yeah. Um, couple more of these.
14:55
Ryan Hyatt, "Had a solid breakfast and I'm now ready to take an informative and entertaining ride with Gil and Kelly on The Numbers Game." Let's go.
15:01
Well, we hope we're inform, inform, you know, insightful and entertaining. Uh, Todd Hoyer, "Was it intentional to have the Will Ferrell PayPal commercial on the Megapod this week? If so- [laughs]...
15:11
master class in meta marketing." I wish I was that clever that I, uh, that I do bits on The Numbers Game and then the ad comes on the, uh, the Megapod. No, that's just coincidence. Yeah. But that's cool to know.
15:21
I didn't hear that. Uh, and then Brandon Kyles, "Old Milwaukee was about as good at going down as it was c- [laughs]... coming up the next morning." I'm totally Ron Burgundy-ing through all these, by the way.
15:29
That's right, Brandon. Good beer, Pahlon beer. Uh, let's see.
15:33
Nevad Azer, "Hey Gil, in regards to the election, if they call the victor the night of, like it has been for the majority of my lifetime," uh, he says, "Trump wins.
15:41
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina now need days/weeks to count the mail-in votes?" Question mark. "The longer the result lingers, the more its legitimacy is question."
15:49
Oh, well, we're getting political with that one. Um, it's, I'll just say this, feels tight to me.
15:55
And the thing about the electoral college, again, and I just wanna stress this one, one political thing is, if the electoral college, the way that it is, is such that you could have the closest thing in the world, or if it all tips in favor of one candidate, it could actually be a blowout on the swing states, right?
16:12
If it tips all to, to the former President Trump, Trump could win in a blowout. If it tips to Vice President Harris, it could be Harris in a blowout too.
16:19
So there, it's such a wide disparate possibility of outcomes, and that's what makes it a, a strange puzzle, unlike anything that we do in sports betting.
16:27
Trip Tepper, "I hereby declare to a numbers game, can we start refra- reframing an eight-point deficit as a two-score game? The two-point play is a second scoring play that's required to tie the game.
16:38
The two-point conversion is still a coin flip and isn't automatic." I'm behind that, Trip Tepper. I'm with him. Why? Be- well, because of what he just said. I understand what he's saying.
16:47
It's a, the reason they say a one-score game is to keep your interest, because it is a- Sure... one-score game. But two things have to happen, so I get what he's saying.
16:56
Yeah, but, like, you said the same, the same thing about the extra point. Yeah, that's, that's true.
17:02
Now you could, now you could say the same thing about the extra point because the percentage chance of it going through is similar. It didn't used to be that way. You're right, that's a, it's a valid point.
17:12
Yeah, and I think regardless, even if it was still the old- Kelly Tilghman, everybody, with a very valid point. [laughs] Paul Carr has been waiting patiently, uh, patiently. He's courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
17:21
He wants to talk some, uh, soccer with us. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter @paulcarr. He works at True Media Networks, spreading analytics throughout North American sports.
17:29
Uh, and he's also the host of the Expected Value podcast. How you doing, Paul? I'm good. I have, I have a few numbers for your go for two up seven thing. Please.
17:37
Uh, this is a f- a few years ago, I think it was Mike Lopez ran the numbers on it, and it was basically, you got about five percentage points of win probability by going for two.
17:47
It was roughly, it depended on the time left on the clock. That was a decent factor. That was a big factor, yes.
17:52
It was roughly, yeah, like, it was like 84% to 89%, and 87% to 92, 93% with less time on the clock So, you know, that's something. There's obviously a lot of other factors- [laughs]...
18:03
you know, how good is your defense, how good's the other team offense- That's right... that sort of thing.
18:07
Because you do, you know, if you don't get it, you open yourself up to giving up a two-point conversion and losing. So that's all factored in. Yeah, yeah.
18:13
But those are all the, the things you gotta kinda add into the percentages there. That's right.
18:17
If you believe your extra point has a better possibility, or if you believe the opposing team's extra point has a be- a better success rate than a two-point conversion would- Right...
18:27
then you probably don't go to make it seven to nine, because you don't- Right... you don't, you wanna, you wanna put that burden on them, in other words. Yeah. You know? And it's a little- Yeah...
18:35
it's slightly more advantageous now than it was before they moved the extra point back, just because the kicking it is not as automatic as it used to be. It's interesting.
18:44
Uh, yeah, so slight advantage, but enough that you can kinda argue either way depending on other factors in the game. And they are arguing either way, believe me, on, on, uh, Twitter. By the way, uh- Really?...
18:53
you mentioned Michael Lopez. Yeah. Uh, stats by Lopez. I- Yep... w- the, for true numbers game listeners through the years, the most prominent stats by Lopez stat that I always throw out is, do you know? Oh, gosh.
19:05
It was, it, was it the win and cover? No, it- It's, uh, it's the how many games to, like a best of seven- Oh. Yes... in baseball would take 86 games to even out or whatever. [laughs] You just throw out 86 game.
19:15
No, yeah, that's right.
19:16
That a, uh, that a best of seven, uh, for, for baseball and hockey, for the favorites to manifest, for the favorites to get through, as compared to basketball, because basketball best of seven, that for the, for the, uh, for the same rate of favorites to get through in hockey you'd have to play a best of 51.
19:34
That's how random hockey is. And to, and in baseball you'd have to play a best of 75. Yeah. Which is kind of a mind-blowing stat. Yeah, yeah. But that's- I'd love to see it- Yeah...
19:43
in soccer, 'cause it's gotta be like best out of 101 or something. [laughs] I bet. Best out, yeah. That low-scoring environment. Uh, okay. Premier League. Um, by the way- Yeah... how did the Champions League games go?
19:53
Eh, didn't go so well. Not so well. I feel like I got one handicap right, and just entered into finish Young Boys and then Bayern Barcelona went very differently than I expected after an early goal. I see.
20:02
Okay, well let's- The Kelly, the Kelly Bidlin trend did not work. Yeah. P- Paul Carr started it. It di- didn't work. Yeah. The Young Boys showed up. Ca- can't go against Young Boys. Yep. Let's move on from that.
20:12
[laughs] Let's. Uh, you have a, you have a three-pack of Premier League [laughs] picks. What do you got? Uh, I'm gonna start today. We got afternoon soccer here, uh, depending on where you're living. Nice.
20:21
Uh, I'm taking Nottingham Forest to win at Leicester City today. Forest is in eighth place, which looks funny in the table, but it's really not a fluke. They're ninth in expected goal difference.
20:31
They've only allowed five goals total in eight games, and they give up very low-quality shots. So that's obviously good from a defensive standpoint. Uh, Leicester's in 14th, but they haven't really been that good.
20:41
They're probably the second or third worst team in the league, depending on what kind of metrics you wanna look at. The worst shot difference at minus nine per game. Uh, Forest is just kinda, they're humming along.
20:50
Chris Wood has five goals for them, fourth most in the league. They know how to find him up top. I feel like this should be a lot closer to even money. This may not be pretty.
20:57
Forest likes to grind out a one-nil win, but I think they can go to Leicester and get one, especially given a plus 140 price you can get. All right. Nottingham Forest plus 140. Shop around as always.
21:07
And then two tomorrow. Yeah, we'll start with Brentford. This is, uh, this is a little juicy. It's minus 145 to beat Ipswich Town.
21:13
And Brentford's in 13th place, and their underlying numbers don't look great either, 14th in expected goal difference and such. But they have had a brutal schedule.
21:21
They've already played at Liverpool, at City, at Tottenham, and at Man United. So the numbers are a bit skewed in that regard.
21:27
They've won three of the four home games all fairly easily against worse teams, which is what they have here in Ipswich Town, which is a newly promoted team.
21:35
So I think Brentford should just handle stuff at home pretty easily. Two-nil type of win, something in that vein for Brentford. Uh, it's minus 145, so it's juicy, but you're playing a, a much worse team at home.
21:45
I like Brentford here. All right. And- My records show, Gil, this is the third match, uh, since Premier League started that Paul Carr has played a Brentford game. Oh, good research. Brentford has...
21:56
They, they, actually, I keep going back to the well. They weren't that kind to me last year. Uh, they vastly underperformed their expected numbers, their underlying numbers and such.
22:05
But I'm continuing to beat my head against the wall, so here we are. And Everton Fulham over two and a half goals for the official Paul Carr segment? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, over two and a half, minus 115 tomorrow.
22:15
Everton has holes at the back, injuries and such. Raul Jimenez is on fire for Fulham, scored on four of his last five overall. Uh, and Everton tends to have possessions.
22:24
Well, I mean, lots of possessions, meaning it's an open game back and forth, and Fulham will think they can win this, so I expect this one to be open in that vein. Feels a lot like a two-one game one way or the other.
22:33
I don't know which way it's gonna go, but I think we get goals in this one. All right. All of that will be, uh, reprinted at vsin.com/picks for subscribers.
22:40
Real quick before you go, the big one, I know you don't have an official play on this- Okay... but Arsenal Liverpool, what are your thoughts? Man, I'm gonna end up playing Liverpool around plus 190, to be honest.
22:50
Arsenal's got a lot of injuries. Saliba, Odegaard, Saka all look like they're not gonna play, so I like Liverpool on the road here. Who did Dallin have yesterday? He, he played the under. He played the under.
22:58
He liked the under. He's an Arsenal fan. Yeah. He played the under. Tell, tell Felika I'm taking Liverpool to get off my back. [laughs] Should have passed that on. Hopefully he'll, uh, show up a little later on.
23:07
Thank you, Paul. All right. Appreciate it. You bet. Have a good weekend. Paul Carr, everybody, @paulcarr on Twitter. Uh, let's talk some baseball. Paul Spohrer next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:55
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Just a few tweets here. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Uh, this is from Chris Hartman. Chris Hartman, who, uh...
24:09
Oh, did I? Oh, wait. Hold on. Chris Hartman says, "Gil, where do we stand on the Matt Brown golfing field goal challenge? Weather seems ideal in Vegas." What's the Matt Brown golfing field goal challenge?
24:19
I, I have no idea. Oh, no. Is there something new? [laughs] I'm like, did, did we talk about this on a show one day- Uh... and I forgot about it? Uh, let's see. I thought you were gonna remind me.
24:27
Uh, JasonH11, another great Megapod, by the way. It's the Beating the Book Megapod. Uh, Chris Falica was the guest this week.
24:33
He said, "Is that the first time in history that you didn't yell at Wishnev for interrupting you? Good job, Todd, and Matt." Puts a little ginzer thing at the end. The, the under got home? Yeah, the under got home.
24:42
He did. He was pretty good. Wow. Pretty good yesterday. Pretty good.
24:45
Broad Street Hustle Podcast, there's a shout-out for your podcast, tweets in, "I would call an eight-point lead a one possession game as opposed to a one score game." Okay. Okay. See, I can get, I can get down with that.
24:54
I like what you did there. Yeah, yeah. I can get down with that. Primetime Cowboys_Cubs1, "Yo." [laughs] He didn't, he didn't- Cracks me, cracks me up every time... he didn't do an I'm sorry, though.
25:03
[laughs] He just did a yo. Oh, I think he, I think he switches. He goes with one or the other. He goes, "I do declare," in a Foghorn Leghorn voice, "my independence from future declarations." Yeah.
25:13
Um, yeah, it's getting much. And it, it never, it... I shouldn't say it never works, 'cause it did work the other day. Um, what game was that where it worked? It worked in, in that game. I don't remember. Yeah, yeah.
25:22
Standard one. And then, uh, let's see. Jerry Robertson says, "We need Jason's World Series MVP observations. Remember Soler at 30/1."
25:30
Uh, yes, I do remember Ho- uh, Jorge Soler at 30/1 cashing with the Braves, I believe it was. But the... We tried getting an MVP thought from him when he was on the other day, but he said, "Oh, it'll be in the article.
25:42
So check it out at vsin.com." Oh, yeah, he did say that. That's right. He did say that. So I don't know if it's up yet, but Jason will have that at vsin.com. You know what, Gil? I bet it's a Dodger. I bet it's a Dodger.
25:53
[laughs] Oh, and by the way, uh, Jack Larkin from Sport Trade just tweeted and he said, "Sport Trade is now live in the Virginia Commonwealth as of yesterday." Nice. There we go. Thank you.
26:04
That's a, that's a live update on Sport Trade, now live in Virginia. Uh, so we appreciate that as well.
26:11
Paul Spore joins us, ladies and gentlemen, uh, courtesy of the Progressive guest line from his home in lovely Austin, Texas. Uh, where he was... Did you see that?
26:19
He's just gazing out the window at the beautiful sunshine. He's got the, uh, the alternate San Diego Padres hat on. What's the, what's the sweatshirt? Just a light blue, Carolina blue- Yeah... kind of thing?
26:28
Yeah, just, uh, for, for, for an influencer. Yeah. For, for- He, he sold it. I mean, they, they s- For an influencer... they sold it. Uh, yeah. Wait, what?
26:37
I wanna- I would kind of want more details than that He doesn't, he doesn't wanna promote the influencer. Yeah, yeah. No, no, I do. I got no problem with it. A YouTuber who sold it. His name is Ludwig.
26:46
Um, and yeah, that's... I just didn't think it'd be relevant to your audience. I didn't think it- Oh, it's so relevant... oh, I'm, I'm s- They were waiting to hear who the influencer was. You made me.
26:55
[laughs] What YouTube gamer influencer is this, Paul? That's right. He is a gamer. That's fine.
27:00
Paul, we just have an image of you, like, late at night, destroying some 12-year-old kid in Asia in, like, some baseball video game. Gil. Yes? That's just, that's old, though.
27:09
I go to bed now, like, before midnight consistently. Oh, okay. And I have a s- senior geriatric dog who wakes my ass up at 4:30 in the morning every day. [laughs] I understand.
27:20
Uh, 'cause for some reason, that's what her poop schedule's on now. [laughs] I, I, I, I can't be pwning noobs on video games late at night anymore. Pwning noobs.
27:28
[laughs] That's, uh- He just doesn't have time for it anymore, Gil. Better not have time for it. Well, Paul, I hope you stay up for the World Series tonight. I will. I will make it up for that.
27:36
I j- I was just taking a nap. That's why your, your producers had to, had to- Yeah... call me on my phone, 'cause I fell asleep. Oh, so here's what happened. They called Paul. First of all, Paul was a little late.
27:43
They called Paul, and then they, they lost Paul. Correct. So I think Paul actually has a little narcolepsy, too. Like, he fell asleep after they, they called him. I just nodded out, yeah. Yeah. Uh, okay. Oh, man.
27:52
Let's, let's just go through, 'cause you were on earlier. Mm-hmm. But I just wanna refresh everybody what your stance is on this in general, and then if you've, if you've come to any other, like, sort of side bets here.
28:03
Okay. So, uh, the prices haven't really moved, and what I was looking at when we talked on, we talked on Tuesday, right? Whereas I'm leaning Dodgers, but there is a price where I get in on the Yankees.
28:17
So it is the classic shop around. I still... I, I, I've kind of strengthened my resolve in the Dodgers, though.
28:23
I just think they have more ways to win, and I think their creativity with their bullpen, I think we talked about how, how well they avoided letting their best guys face the best, um, Mets multiple times because of the, the kind of r- seeing them over and over effect.
28:39
We talked about three times through the lineup in an individual game, but we're now seeing some, uh, in-series situations where if you're facing a reliever three or four times, you're getting that same sort of effect.
28:50
And like I said, I think the Dodgers do a much better job preventing that. I'm with you.
28:56
Like, I, uh, I think even before you were on this, this week, I had the same, same similar, you know, similar kind of the argument, which is the, the Yankees' path is much more narrow to me. Right, right.
29:08
And that path is get to those three starters, whether it's Buehler or, uh, Yamamoto or, uh, Flaherty, get to them early enough that you get to see those relievers early and often.
29:20
And then as the series progresses, you'll be able to have success against that, and then come... And then in addition to that, you've got to have all the good versions of your offense.
29:30
So in other words, Stanton's got to stay hot. Judge has got to become hot again. Uh, and then the, the real thing is the, the Volpes and the, uh, the Torreses of the world. Getting on base has been such- Right...
29:41
a big thing for them in the postseason. So you have to have that kind of stuff happen. Whereas the Dodgers, I'm with you.
29:45
If a couple play- uh, players, you know, if, if, uh, if Kike or Tauscher or any of these guys don't have a good series or if, you know, if one of the big stars doesn't have a big series, that's okay.
29:56
We got 13 more great players right behind them to make up for it.
29:59
Right, and notice, like, how at least, you know, you and I specifically were kind of unbothered by the fact that Freeman, uh, could be a complete- That's right... zero factor in this.
30:08
And, like, that, that barely registers because of their depth.
30:12
And again, it's, it's just so many more ways to win here for the Dodgers, and that's why I keep w- winding up back toward them, uh, because the Yankee number hasn't gotten high enough for me.
30:22
Any, uh, MVP thoughts from you? Um, like I said, uh, I think I said this on Tuesday too, I'm always down to go off the board a little bit. I know you had highlighted the Mookie one.
30:32
That's probably the best favorite that I like. I really love Teoscar. Uh, he's the kind of guy who can pop off for three, four homers in a series. That's a way to get it.
30:41
Uh, you mentioned Gleyber and Volpe and how instrumental they've been. That's another avenue.
30:45
If you are on the Yankees, I think you go with a non-Judge, Soto, Stanton, uh, situation there, because again, going with the favorites, I, I just don't think it's necessarily worth it.
30:54
It, it's not something that, uh, superstars overwhelmingly win. It's who's gonna get the opportunity. So whenever I'm playing the, the MVP board, I'm definitely going on the second side of it. Okay.
31:04
Uh, I, for the record, am on Mookie at nine to one. I'm on, uh, Teoscar at 24 to one, so you can get Teoscar probably at a better number than I got him at. Uh, how- That's my favorite one... how about- Is Teo. Oh, Teo.
31:15
Really? Okay. Yeah. How about anything like most homers, uh, most runs, most stolen bases, anything like that, or a correct like or an exact outcome, Dodgers four to one, Dodgers four to two, anything like that?
31:29
I think if you are gonna play a, a home run situation, again, I would probably double down.
31:34
If I am on the Yankees side, which again, I lean, uh, Dodgers here, but if I'm on the Yankees side, I think I would double down on a homer situation because that's probably the best way for them to win, is to out-slug.
31:45
So I maybe would take two avenues there, and then maybe have the chance, like, okay, if the Yankees don't win but still out-slug, you can maybe split your bets there.
31:52
But I think that's where I would be going with the home runs. Because again, I, I know I just keep reiterating it, but the Dodgers have so many multiple ways to win.
31:59
I think they can do the string the hits together thing. I think they can do the power thing. I think they can do the pitching shutdown thing. I don't think the Yankees have all the dynamic ways to win.
32:07
I think it's mostly just the big power, and so that's why if I were gonna go home run avenue, I would probably go with the Yankees on that.
32:15
Let me ask you this before, I, well, probably should ask you this after the World Series, but just in case we, uh, we all go our separate ways, uh- Okay... quickly after the World Series,
32:23
h- we don't, you know, if you're looking at the year 2025, w- uh, you're not looking at the numbers. You're more a fantasy guy than a betting guy. But with that, without- Mm-hmm...
32:32
seeing the numbers, what's the team under the radar that you feel might have underperformed in 2024 that you're like, "Okay, there could be value on this team as, you know, World Series winner, pennant winner, division winner, make the playoffs," whatever it is?
32:48
I think the first team I'm gonna look at to see where their numbers at is Baltimore. Is the market gonna overreact to another disappointing season, right? We ha- we have to be honest.
32:56
It is a disappointment that they were out again quickly, but I still really believe in this team, and I am i- intrigued to see where the new ownership goes.
33:03
Do they open up the purse strings and allow them to kind of construct that rotation?
33:07
Because they're really at, I don't wanna say they're at the final step, that's probably overstating it, but they're close in terms of putting the big pieces together.
33:16
You can't guarantee a win no matter what you do in free agency, trade market, et cetera. The players still have to play.
33:21
But in terms of the team construction, bringing back Burns, getting another ace either via, via trade or another, uh, signing, and then getting Grayson Rodriguez back and the rest of their pitching, that's, that's how close they are, I think, is just getting two big pitchers.
33:34
Re-signing Burns and bringing in another one. If the ownership opens up the pocketbooks, the new ownership that they just got, I think they are a great opportunity to win the World Series next year, Baltimore. Yeah.
33:45
We got into this with Rufus Peabody, big Baltimore Orioles fan, that during a mega pod we like strayed for 15 minutes, 'cause he's like this Orioles fan who's like, "I just want hope."
33:53
He was okay with them not trading prospects for like someone that could incrementally advance them, and so we got into it about that. Paul, enjoy game one tonight. Thanks, Gil. Paul S- Take care...
34:03
Paul Spohrer, everybody, @spohrer on the old Twitter machine. Rest of my best bets in the NFL, Kelly's as well, next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:20
Hey, Kelly, did you know the, uh, sports equinox is upon us? Equinox. With all four major sports in action, and there's no better time of year to be a sports bettor.
34:28
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34:51
Don't miss this limited time offer. Visit vsin.com/subscribe to sign up now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. College basketball betting guide's out, uh- Yes, as of two days ago...
35:03
did, did we get a tweet, uh, yesterday, I think i- in hour two, I think it was in the back, about NBA live betting strategies? Yes, we did. We did, right? We did.
35:10
There's an article in the NBA, uh, betting guide for you on that. Do, do that move again. [laughs] That's outstanding. [laughs] Did you write that article? I did write that article. That's right, yes. Nice.
35:19
Don't you do that every year? I do, yes. All right. Uh, it's just me and you talking. Nobody's listening. Do you just copy and paste it or do you, uh- It was slightly updated from a year ago... well, slightly updated.
35:26
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Just curious. Sorry. No, that's awesome. Conversations we should have off air. Yeah. Sorry about that. Uh, by the way, before I was rudely interrupted, I was giving all my NFL picks.
35:34
It would be hilarious, though, if there was like bad examples in there of like players from wrong teams or something. Like, "Well, Carl Anthony Towns, when he's shooting this percentage [laughs] in Minnesota."
35:43
That's right. Hey, wait a minute. [laughs] I don't think these guys updated this. You're a tw- yeah, if you're like 2019 players and teams. [laughs] Uh, so let me just start from the top here.
35:52
Seahawks plus three, that was guessing lines. I just, again, don't, I don't, I don't know that Buffalo should be a three-point favorite on the road even without, uh, even with the Seahawks perhaps not having DK Metcalf.
36:03
I'm on the Saints plus seven and a half. Again, the Chargers have won one game since September 15th. I don't believe they should be more than seven-point favorites against anyone. Mm-hmm.
36:15
Um, and so, you know, I'll, I'll take the Saints plus seven and a hook, thank you. Uh, Bengals minus two and a half. This is a bit of transitive property as well.
36:23
If you look at the Bengals' win-loss record this year, their losses have not been shameful at all.
36:29
Um, now I know they haven't like lit the place on fire in their wins either, but if you, if you view it from the loss standpoint This is probably a better, uh, the, their record maybe would be better just based on schedule, right?
36:41
If they hadn't, uh, had to face three really tough football teams. But a home game against the Eagles and they're less than three, uh, I'll take that. Bengals minus two and a half. Uh, and then I went with the Broncos.
36:54
Now you're not gonna, you're not gonna make money longterm in the NFL laying nine and a half points. Yeah. Uh, at Circa Millions, this is nine and a half. Jeez.
37:02
Uh, and I, uh, I bought this down to nine and a half in real life as well. Broncos nine and a half point favorites against the Panthers. The Panthers are starting Bryce Young.
37:10
Andy Dalton hurt himself in that, uh, car crash that he, uh, endured this week. So- Yeah, that was weird... my thing is this with Bryce Young.
37:18
Listen, could he have improved holding, holding the proverbial clipboard the last three weeks, four weeks? Uh, maybe. Maybe. But I'll, I'll bet against that.
37:29
And if the, you know, if the knock is, well, the Broncos offense isn't exactly, uh, the greatest thing ever in the world either, they're not the, they're not exactly the '91 Skins- Mm-hmm...
37:37
Kelly, just to use one example of greatness. Um, yeah, but if the Broncos can muster up 21 points,
37:47
if they can, if they can muster up 21 to 23 points, are you telling me that the, uh, that the, that the Panthers are able to score, let's say, 14? Like if, if in other words- No, I'm not sure that could happen, yes.
37:59
Yeah... that's what I mean. So I, I'll take the Broncos minus the, the points here, because I just don't know if the Panthers can score 14, it's a feat for them, right?
38:09
So by the way, that might be the case for the Panthers team total under. And, and you might still be safe. I, I don't want any part of this game. Yeah. But I, I, if I had to pick one side, it would be the Broncos too.
38:18
Broncos defense against Bryce Young, I'll take my chances. And then finally, I know it's a 49ers play, uh, but the 49ers giving up four points, and I get it. Uh, there's no Brandon Aiyuk, done for the season.
38:30
We still won't see Christian McCaffrey. We still won't see Dre Greenlaw. Um,
38:36
Brock Purdy did not look good last week against the Chiefs, but it's giving four points against the Dallas Cowboys, who are a absolute nightmare right now internally as well.
38:46
Did you see that, uh, tweet with all the, uh... First of all, there was the Jerry Jones threatening to fire those local radio guys thing. Yeah.
38:53
Then there was that tweet from former players who are so happy to be on other teams because they said like, tours of, of the Cowboys training facility is such a distraction, so they're dealing with that sort of publicly as well.
39:06
It just, they still, the Cowboys still have, they still haven't fixed their running game. Like you're only giving- What running game? [laughs] That's what I mean. You're only giving four points. I'll take the 49ers.
39:16
Those are my five plays this week. Yeah, that was very, uh, bizarre, just hitting on that story again. Like CeeDee Lamb and like Dak Prescott had to comment on it, and I'm like, "What?" Yeah. This is so weird.
39:24
I, at the end of the day though, the Cowboys are just different. Oh. Right? Like the Cowboys are just a different franchise.
39:29
If you're gonna play there, like you're gonna, you're gonna work there, like it's different being at the Dallas Cowboys. And I'm leaving out the part where Jerry Jones went publicly after Mike McCarthy this week.
39:38
Oh gosh, that was awkward. Yeah, I'm, I'm with you. At th- at first that, this game I had no interest in. I'm getting closer to betting San Francisco.
39:46
I, I, it is, I think with Parsons looking like he's not gonna be r- uh, be there for c- uh, Dallas, um, and like you said, it's been a disaster inside, uh, that building. So I might be there with you.
39:56
As far as bets that I have made, I haven't added anything since opening lines. Um, we talked a lot about these on Monday. Buccaneers, I've got a terrible number on them 'cause I'm laying two and a half, Gil.
40:06
Not catching two and a half, laying two and a half. Ooh. Those are the mistakes that happen when you make a bet before Monday Night Football and two star wide receivers go out.
40:14
Uh, so I've got that crappy ticket in my pocket. Texans five and a half, this has come down as well. Um, I still like this. Colts coming into town, you can get four and a half, uh, five on this game.
40:23
I think this is a better spot for the Texans, uh, to rebound at home. Um, and then I do have the Bears, uh, on the opener catching a point. Ooh, you got the best of that one. Yeah.
40:33
And then, uh, well, you know, I guess I could still wildly swing this weekend if, if your boy Jayden does play. He could. Um, and then Bills, me and you oppo on this one. Bills I am laying three with.
40:42
And I, I have not added anything all week, which has kinda shocked me. The Jayden Daniels thing is a little interesting, right? 'Cause it's still listed as un- they're, they're guarding the, the injury very closely.
40:53
I'm gonna s- Uncertain is still the word... I'm gonna say like a 9% chance he plays. Nine? Nine. You did the numbers, 9%? Yeah, I'm gonna go nine. Yeah. I'm gonna go 12%. How about that?
41:02
I don't think it's, I don't think it's that bad. I don't think it's something you need to worry about long term. No. But it's also- Like I said, I, well, say, say pretty sure... like if you're the Commanders- Yeah...
41:10
I know this is a cool record that you started with. What's the rush though? No. There is no rush. There's no rush. And a, and a lot of people were nice 'cause they're like, "Oh my God, are you okay? Oh, and he got hurt."
41:18
And I'm like, I choose to view this, I'll repeat what I said on Guessing Lines.
41:21
I choose to view this injury as, again, the parallel to RG III's spectacular 2012 season with the Skins where he ended up spraining his knee against the Ravens and then blew out his knee in the playoffs against the Seahawks.
41:32
If this is the, the injury part for Jayden Daniels, let this be the worst thing that ever happens to him. Right. I choose to view it that way. I choose to- No, totally... I choose to view it as a positive spin.
41:42
Uh, which brings us to Are We Sure? You ready? Week number, we don't have any intro for Are We Sure, do we? No, we don't. We might have to work on that. Estamos seguros.
41:48
[laughs] That, that, that's what we should just play. [laughs] That's, somebody should be saying that. Somebody translate it. [laughs] Week 8. [laughs] All right. I'm gonna start with the Commanders one then.
41:57
Are we sure the Commanders can't win without Jayden Daniels? Can't win? Yes. Can't win a game or can't win, can't win meaning get to the playoffs? He's a smart guy, left it open-ended for a reason.
42:09
Oh, I see what you did. [laughs] Uh, no. I wanted to see where you went with it. [laughs] We, I am sure that they cannot win with any consistency with Marcus Mariota as their quarterback.
42:19
I am sure that they cannot win consistently with him. Okay. Okay. Yeah, like I think, I think a lot of people are like, "Oh my God, Marcus-" Like a game maybe... a game maybe. Yeah.
42:26
And especially if you're playing the Panthers like they were last ye- last week, sure. But Marcus Mariota's not scaring anybody. So no, they, I, I am pretty sure they can't win without Jayden.
42:36
Okay, a team you're picking on this week, uh, this worked out well. Are we sure the Chargers should be minus 125 favorites to make the playoffs? No. I know people love Jim Harbaugh, and I get it.
42:47
He's a great coach, no matter what level he's coached at. Um- But it felt like it got out of control in the preseason, and now we're in week eight and it's out of control still.
42:55
But I'm just saying, if you look at the NFL, if you look at the AFC standings, um, they're, they're still a four and three football team, right?
43:02
That's s- you know, if the playoffs were to begin now, it would be a log jam to get in, as, as good as their record is.
43:10
You're telling me over the next, yeah, what is that, uh, you know, 11 football games that they should be only minus 125 to make the playoffs? Three and three. No way. I'm not sure they should be minus 125 at all.
43:21
Three and three. Pardon me, I gave them a game. Yeah, that might be- Yeah... that might even be a bet for me, although I, I don't- The, which of the no on that. Yeah, the no. Yeah, yeah.
43:28
Like, I was looking at these numbers yesterday prepping for this. I'm like, "Well, really? Minus 125?" I'll include another team, though.
43:33
You bet, you bet on this team this week, should the Bengals be exactly minus 125 to make the playoffs. Makes a lot more sense than the Chargers being minus 125. Yeah. I feel the same.
43:43
The Bengals, again, if you l- I know there's only one way to look at it that's not definitive, but if you look at the, at the Bengals' performance thus far this year, their losses, especially that Washington loss, have aged very nicely.
43:55
Yeah, you're right. Um, okay, are we sure people should not be betting Sam Darnold to win Comeback Player of the Year? After last night, I'm surer. Surer. Sound like a Roger Federer thing. Surer. I just can't.
44:10
This is hurting my soul, Gil. Every time I pull up these odds, he's still getting shorter and shorter and shorter. But you're, you're asking me are we s- s- phrase it again how you did?
44:19
Are we sure people should not be betting Sam Darnold to win Comeback Player of the Year? Well, I'm not sure that it's a blanket 100%, because I'm not sure the voters will adhere to the new language.
44:32
So I can't be 100% sure about that, but I don't think he's gonna win it, if that's what you're asking me. I'm sure people shouldn't be betting it. You're sure they should not.
44:39
If he wins it, then the whole system's screwed up. It's not, it's not the bettors. [laughs] Zamir Hamlin plus 550. I'm just saying. I don't even know if he plays. [laughs] I, I don't know. Ah, football Fridays begin.
44:54
Palika, Fezick, Dr. Bob next on a Numbers Game with Beason. The Sports Betting Network.
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
