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Oct 2, 2024
A Numbers Game | October 2, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | October 2, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:34
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, too many ways to get us. I think I named them all though. Whichever way you do, we appreciate it.
0:20
It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin to my left, to your right. How you doing, Kelly? I'm doing well, except you got me fired up pre-show, uh, talking about Danny Green stories.
0:29
Danny Green with a great, uh, guest appearance on the VSiN Morning Line here this morning. And I, uh, I reminded you of a primetime action classic night where, uh, where MGM posted a bad prop on Danny Green.
0:41
Yeah, it was really bad. You being the exploiter that you are- [laughs]... correctly tried to exploit it. Uh, what was it, over something?
0:50
Oh, it was like- It was like, I think it was like 13 and a half points was his real line. They put, they forgot the one- They forgot the one... and it was like three and a half.
0:57
[laughs] And so he came, wait, and so there was a three-pointer, I remember the second half, that went halfway down and bounced up, and that, that would've been my first question to Danny Green.
1:07
I was, do you, I would've been like, "Do you remember this one time- [laughs]... you had this shot that went halfway down?" Yeah, Kel- Kelly lost on that. I was losing it. That was awesome. Oh, it was a rough night.
1:16
[laughs] That's great. Uh, anyway, Danny Green was on the, uh, the Money Line, the, uh, Morning Line this morning, so good on them for having him on. Uh, we have quite the show.
1:24
Mark Borcherdt to talk Major League Baseball postseason. What a quadruple header that was yesterday. We have another quadruple header today, baby. This is great.
1:33
Uh, if necessary, quadruple header tomorrow, but, you know, any facsimile of. We could have no games tomorrow. We could have four. We could have everything in between.
1:41
Then our NFL power rankings coming up, and, oh, I like this, Win Total Wednesdays, baby. Ooh. This is, because people are like, "Win Total Wednesdays?" Adjusted season win totals,
1:52
my favorite three that currently exist, and I kinda love them. I got two. I got two. I think I'm s- thinking the same lines as you, though. We- Oh, did, did we match on any? We didn't match on any. Okay. Great.
2:04
But I think, yours I saw I considered heavily, uh, all of them. Oh, thank you for doing so. Mm.
2:09
Uh, and then in, in hour number two, uh, not only Jason Weingarten, but Aaron Schatz, uh, FTN Chiefs analytics off- uh, chief analytics officer, not Chiefs analytics officer. He doesn't work for that team.
2:20
Chief analytics officer, CAO they call him, uh, the founder of Football Outsiders, now works at FTN, uh, the creator of DVOA.
2:27
He comes quarterly on the show during football season, and since we're through four games, you know, it's 17 now, so it's kinda, you can't really do it exact. Uh, but he'll come on to give us his quarterly report.
2:37
I'll talk to him about, uh, through the prism of DVOA, who's the best, who's the worst, what are, what units have st- stood out this far.
2:45
But he's also an awards bettor, uh, so we'll get his preliminary thoughts on that if he's thinking anything.
2:52
It's always the, we gotta see what we can pry out of him, 'cause he's an actual- An awards voter, what we watch- A- awards voter, pardon me. Uh, the one guy who did not vote for Lamar Jackson for MVP last year.
3:02
Yeah, and, and, and look, a- going back to our conversation last week- Yeah... fa- [laughs] I mean, we gotta ask about [laughs] Comeback Player of the Year- Gotta ask about-... now the voters are talking about it...
3:11
gotta ask about Comeback Player of the Year. And then, uh, also he had some preseason thoughts on this show that so far look pretty good. Yeah. We'll get to those as well, uh, with Aaron. Um, first of all-
3:21
Can I ask you a random question real quick? Sorry, I'm sorry. Win Total Wednesdays. Yes, sir. Of all the time you and I have been working together now- Yeah. What's that been, like eight, nine years now?
3:29
Uh, no, we're like s- six, solid six. Okay. Okay.
3:32
Uh, adjusted season win totals, I don't think since the legalization of sports betting and the expansion nationwide here in this country, I don't think there's a single market that I've seen you get more excited about- I love, I love...
3:43
than when we first started talking about them. Well, be- Does that still hold true today?
3:46
It still holds true because, again, and I don't wanna, if I've said this a, a hundred times, it's before pe- people listen to Betting Dork and Beating The Book on the podcast side and on the Numbers Game, early on in the Numbers Game, before the legalization, I used to refer to something as a stock market-like thing that I do off the grid- Right...
4:05
which is the best betting vehicle I've ever been involved with, which was a Lehman Brothers, this is l- well, it was a Wall Street thing that was the most heavily participated in thing that anything internally at Lehman Brothers, and I was, they were, I was fortunate enough that they included me in this, um, as others were from outside of Lehman Brothers.
4:23
But it was, it was adjusted season win totals, but with a buy price and a, and a sell price. And it was, the markets were made by actual, you know, Wall Street guys who knew what they were doing. Mm-hmm.
4:34
So it was really tough. So, and one year I would be the best, one year I'd be the worst. Like, it was really, it was college and pro, uh, different market maker for each s- some years.
4:43
But anyway, then when legalization happened, I'm like, "This is the greatest thing ever," because you could see the mistakes they made. Right.
4:49
Some people will remember the first year they did, the first week, they adjusted the Broncos- Yeah... three games up when they won a game they were supposed to win in week one, right? So there's all kinds.
4:57
Now, they're better at it now, uh, but I have three that I love coming up. I'll just, I'll never forget it, 'cause Gil's- Yeah... face, I feel like the first time- Oh...
5:03
I, like, brought it up, I'm like, "Hey, we have adjusted seas- " He's like, "Here in Vegas?" [laughs] "Like, we can bet these?" It's the greatest. So excited.
5:09
Uh, real quick, though, uh, Major League Baseball yesterday, uh, four games, went two and one on the picks, and therefore two and one in terms of advancing towards the series plays, 'cause those matched.
5:21
Uh, hit, yeah, first thing in the m- in the morning, hit Detroit as a dog with Tarik Skubal doing his thing.
5:27
Six innings strong, didn't give up a earned run on four hits, six K's against one walk, and then the Tigers did their signature mix and match the rest of the way. It got hairy at the end.
5:37
Uh, the Astros left the bases loaded in the ninth, down three to one, and, uh, Brisky got out of it. Jason Heyward with a, uh, on-the-screws rocket, but right at, uh, first base, and that was the end of that.
5:50
Tigers hold on, so we get that one. Uh, though it, it was quickly followed by the loss of the day. The Orioles lose to the Royals one to nothing. The Orioles completely waste a great Corbin Burn start.
6:05
Uh, Corbin Burn's eight innings of efficient pitching on 84 pitches in eight innings, gave up one earned run. That was all it took. Five hits, three, uh, five hits, three Ks, one walk.
6:16
Uh, Ragans was great for the Royals. He, uh, gave up no earned runs in six innings. Four hits is all he allowed. Eight Ks and, uh, did not issue any free passes.
6:26
But Burns, this was, you know, like you gotta take advantage of that if you're the Baltimore Orioles. And the one time in the sixth inning where Bobby Witt Jr.
6:35
came up, right, with a runner on second with two out, that's not the guy you want up there if you're the Orioles. And of course, Bobby Witt Jr. cashed in on it, and that was the only run that the Royals needed.
6:44
If you are a Baltimore Orioles fan, which I was my entire childhood, uh, growing up in DC where we didn't have a team during my childhood, too, uh, too young for the Senators, too old for the Nationals, uh, so we were all Orioles fans.
6:56
This is a franchise that has n- that has won two postseason games since the Robbie Alomar Orioles of the '90s, and that was the Jeffrey Maier 1996 team and then in 1997.
7:08
They've won two, two postseason games, and the only two were in 2012. So they haven't won a postseason game in over a decade, and this is a very frustrating team because they have the farm system.
7:19
They could have gone for it. They kind of got a free pass last year. People were like, "Oh, they did well. They don't have to do any better than they did." Got swept by the Rangers.
7:27
Uh, and then here they are in, I don't know, maybe they get swept out today, too. Uh, so we lose on the Orioles. Didn't have anything involved in the... I, I was, I didn't have a bet on the Mets.
7:35
Brewers, Mets, uh, absolutely looked great offensively. They cr- they double up the Brewers eight to four in that ballgame after trailing two to nothing, and then, uh, they got a, what was it?
7:45
A five run fifth for the Mets after they trailed four to three. Just a good performance by the Mets as they carry over their momentum.
7:53
I did hit the Padres, though, for the two to one, uh, two and one performance yesterday in the betting because, uh, the Padres behind Michael King, wow. Seven innings, scoreless ball, just gave up five hits.
8:04
12 Ks against zero walks. By the way, the Braves struck out 15 times in all. Oof. Jason Adam with the, uh, striking out of the side in the eighth to add to that. 15 Ks for the Braves.
8:16
Again, the travel for the Braves after the doubleheader with the Mets right to San Diego cross-country. Uh, that worked out nicely for the Padres, four to nothing.
8:23
So today, uh, and by the way, I have the, so I have those same teams in the series, this best of three wildcard series. I have the Padres, I have the, um, Tigers, and I have the Orioles.
8:36
So two and one on the way there so far. We'll see how it shakes out. Again, we could have four sweeps like we did last year today. We don't know. Um, only play I have today is the Tigers.
8:46
I do have the Tigers, uh, plus 157 with Holton on the mound going up against, uh, again, who's he going up against with the, uh, oh, I'm drawing, I'm drawing a blank now. Hold on. Uh, Tigers taking on the, uh,
9:00
the Astros, and it's gonna be Brown for the Astros. Hunter Brown. Yeah. So Holton is the play for me.
9:04
Plus 157 is too, too much of a number in my opinion, even though Holton's advanced stats not quite as good as his, uh, as his conventional stats, but his conventional stats are otherworldly, so still a good pitcher.
9:17
And plus 157 is way too, uh, good of a bang for the buck not to play that. So that's my play. That's the first of the games again today.
9:24
Uh, all right, uh, Davante Adams, real quick because we, I want to get to Borchardt. Davante Adams, uh, Raiders looking to trade him, and there's all kinds of speculation as to where, what would be the most...
9:35
We don't have, we looked for lines, what his next destination could be. Haven't seen a post yet. They don't, they don't exist. Yeah. Um, but here's the speculation in sports talk radio, right?
9:44
And y- we'll just do word as- we'll just do quick association. Uh, Kansas City Chiefs. Sure, sounds like a great plan. Yeah, great plan to trade him to a team in your division. [laughs] Yeah.
9:53
But this, this is like the overall Twitter reaction yesterday where I'm like, "I agree with everybody on Twitter." Your team would be better with Davante Adams on it. Yeah. [laughs] That's right. That's right.
10:02
Uh, Chiefs are in their division. Chiefs have won, uh, I don't know if you've heard this, but back-to-back Super Bowls. Probably don't want to trade him there.
10:07
Okay, so Matt Brown and I ha- and I had the quick conversation yesterday. Yeah. We're hearing the asking price starts with a second rounder, right?
10:13
Uh, the Chiefs, w- does that, are they even in consideration, or what does that asking price start with? It's gotta be way more. For the Chiefs, it might be more than every other team. Yeah, it has.
10:23
But I don't think the, I, the Raiders should not consider that. Yeah, I wouldn't either. By the way, Davante Adams is also on the wrong side of 30, and he may not be the guy we all remember him to be. Yep.
10:32
The Jets is the obvious choice with Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers loves himself some Tay, as he calls him. Mm-hmm.
10:38
Um, but do the Jets, like, does that knock Lazard out of the, the, the sort of wide, wide receiver room, if you will? Like, he, he's been good. Right. So I don't, does that improve you tremendously?
10:49
So th- this was, I, I think it's been talked about enough. I think that the connection between those two is so obvious that I would expect the Jets to be involved. Yep, me too. And they do have the cap room.
10:58
Cap room does come into play into this conversation a little bit, but they have the room to, to bring him in. That, well, Matt Brown and literally, I spoke for four minutes about this yesterday, but he brought that up.
11:08
He's like, "Is, is wide receiver really the problem for the New York Jets, though?" No. No, that's my, that's my point. It's not, yeah. That's my point, but Aaron Rodgers runs things, so he'll get his way. Right, yes.
11:16
That, that's- Even if it doesn't make sense. That's why I think there'll be a play. The Bills seems like a really good spot in terms of a need. Um, the Ravens, good spot in terms of a need. Yeah.
11:28
Bill Barnwell is making the case that it should be Washington.
11:31
My, my viewpoint on that is Washington is not a wide receiver away from winning the Super Bowl, and certainly not one on the wrong side of 30, because by the time they get there to that point that they could win a Super Bowl, he'll, he'll be even older.
11:44
So I don't know if I love that, even though Barnwell thinks that's the, uh, the perfect destination. Borchardt on baseball next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
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12:40
Gotta be 21 years or older to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Billin, this is a numbers game. Un juego de numeros. Hmm.
12:53
Muy bien. That guy yesterday wanted me to change from partido to, uh, juego, so I did. And when you first dropped it I did w- I did wonder why we were going with juego, but we got the whole explanation yesterday.
13:01
Well- Don't give me that look... again. [laughs] Spent time in Spain. They used to use partido for everything, but he explained to me. He goes, "It's more a match than a game." Ah. So he's right. So stick- Un juego...
13:13
to tennis? Un juego. Yeah, if I, if it's about tennis- Stay in your lane, Gil... it's un partido.
13:17
[laughs] By the way, these, these times for these matches in all over Asia, like, they happen, it's, it's the oddest thing from the Pacific Time Zone, 'cause usually I'll put out my plays at night, but it's not like Australia, where it's in the middle of the night, right?
13:30
Right. It's, it's just after I would put them out normally, so I have to, like, re- redo the timing on when I put these out, uh, 'cause it's very awkward otherwise. And then s- it's awkward just in general.
13:40
Alcaraz taking on Sinner- [laughs]... in the middle of the, you know, on a Tuesday, Wednesday. I was gonna say, I walked in this morning- Yeah... uh, it's, like, 5:45 and I look up- Great match...
13:48
at the big screen with the, uh, Alcaraz holding a huge gold, uh, cup- Yeah... or whatever, and I'm like, oh, okay. Yeah. Like, like Drew said yesterday, I just missed that one. What did he win, Wimbledon? No.
13:57
[laughs] No. Not quite. No. Not quite. Exactly. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book, always appreciate the, uh, feedback. This is from our guy, Buddhist Man.
14:04
He said, [laughs] "It's win total Wednesday," this is awesome. "Is win total Wednesday bumping Sean or No Sean to Friday?" [laughs] Now, what he means by that is, so we have this segment on Friday, are we sure?
14:14
There were pictures involved, yeah. [laughs] We have this, we have this segment on Friday called Are We Sure? Are we sure about things in the NFL and, or, or beyond.
14:21
And, uh, Kelly, I joke, uh, ke- keeps trying to, uh, cannibalize it with a segment in the middle of the week. What have we used so far? Uh, what have you come up with? Shot or No Shot. Shot or No Shot.
14:31
There was the one we forgot about the week before- Which was what?... which I'm blank, which I'm blanking on right now. Thing or Not a Thing, or what was that called? No, Thing or Not a Thing. Oh, God.
14:38
We'll have to look back. Yeah. But anyway, no, sure, so Buddhist Man says, "Sean or No Sean," meaning like great tribute to No Sean Moreno.
14:44
[laughs] Uh, this is from The Numb Guys said, uh, "Can you ask Aaron if Jayden Daniels is a play for MVP? Suppose he, uh, extrapolates his current numbers over the next 13 weeks." I will ask him.
14:54
I have a lot to ask Aaron. I gotta take down notes on what I gotta ask him, uh, coming up at the top of the hour. Um, this is from, uh, Brian Shaver.
15:03
"Gil, I believe the Orioles are the worst playoff team out of all of them. No starting pitching and a bad bullpen. Uh, a recipe for a short postseason." Man, I, I really mean this about this franchise.
15:12
I don't think I made enough of this. The thing about, like, you have a window in every sport, and in baseball, right, the Astros perfected the tank for a few years and then load up, and then Astros are, are a fixture.
15:26
They're like furniture in the postseason. You can't get them out of the room, right? They're always there. The Orioles did the same thing, and the Orioles endured so many bad years.
15:36
This was, the Orioles were a phenomenal franchise in the '70s and early '80s. '60s, '70s, and early '80s. There was something called the Orioles Way. Like, they were one of baseball's marquee franchises.
15:45
They won three World Series, uh, from 1966. They won in '66, '79, '83.
15:51
But s- but this, this current iteration of the Orioles, this generation, only know, only knew losing records, and then they built up this amazing farm system.
15:59
They tried to mimic what the Astros did, and last year they overperformed according to expectation. They got to the playoffs.
16:06
Again, they got swept by the Rangers and, and everybody kinda, like, let it go, and then the Rangers won it all, so it was, it was a, you were a, more easily swept under the, under the carpet on that.
16:14
But, like, they, you had to, at the trade deadline this year, you had to make a move. Like, unload some of those guys to try to win. Here's the object, Kelly. I need you to lean in.
16:24
The object here is to win a World Series. Oh, uh, uh, uh, uh. Yeah. No, I don't know if you know that. That's the object. [laughs] The object is not to, you know, just have this shiny thing that you don't want to let go.
16:35
I love having this great farm system year after year. No. Try to win w- try to win some. Now, they could come back, right? They could come back, win this series, and make some noise, but Brian Shaver might be right.
16:45
They may be done today. Uh, I'm gonna g- I'm gonna give them a shot for one reason, one reason only, Gil. Yeah. I'm gonna back up for this one a little bit. Okay. Mount Castle. Yeah.
16:54
Well, he got pinched in for it later yesterday. He was, he was not good yesterday, though. Uh, MX Square better. "So when does NL Rookie of the Year settle? Regular season over?
17:02
Do you think there's a chance we could have co-Rookies of the Year in the NL with, uh, Marilyn Skeens?" I think the votes are in as of yesterday, if I'm not mistaken, so it is a regular season award.
17:10
There is no, like, if, if Marilyn does anything now, the votes are in, uh, as far as I know. I'm pretty sure about that, that they g- that they went in yesterday. And we won't know, that's a great...
17:21
By the way, this is one of the toughest things to figure out is the MLB award schedule, because it often doesn't come out this early. Um, so again, that's the thing.
17:32
We know the 20, we, we, we didn't know the 2023 award schedule till much later, but it will go for, it will be after the World Series into November cl- it will only end close to Thanksgiving. It's wild.
17:46
So somewhere in that pocket. That's how long you have to wait to find out. Yeah, it is wild.
17:49
But I will promise you that the MLB Network will telegraph the pass that s- that night, because giving the award for National League Rookie of the Year, they'll be like, uh, "Matilda Skeens," right?
18:00
Like, [laughs] I'm just coming up with a name. Matilda. [laughs] I have no idea if that's his na- if that's his mom's name. I'm just coming, I say, I used to use Gertrude, right? Go ahead.
18:06
[laughs] It'll just be, like, so telegraphed that night, and they'll, they'll milk it for two hours. Um- Um, Mark gonna join us next segment. You wanna power through some, uh, power rankings here?
18:13
Let's do some NFL- Power rankings... power rankings. There we go. Okay. All right. Let's plug it in. Oh, there we go. Power it up. There we go. Blazers on top. Let's see if Mark gets, uh, set up here now.
18:22
Hang with us, Mark. Yeah. 105 WAVA. Does that station still exist in DC? That was way back in the day. Um- Was that a real one? Right. Yeah. Okay, okay.
18:31
I came back- I can't tell when we're making up ones or when I was playing around... no, no, I was trying to do a real one. Okay. But that was, DC101 last week was a real one, and the Bone- Right...
18:37
The Bone in San Francisco is a real one But I don't know if W- WABA was classic rock. Anyway, uh, did we say enough about Devonte before we got into this?
18:45
I feel like, I just wanna say from the Washington perspective again, do you get what I was saying? Like, I g- y- there were some...
18:51
Barnwell was trying to, Bill Barnwell at ESPN did a great piece on all the possible destinations that make sense for Bill Barnwell, and we went through a bunch that have wide receiver needs.
19:00
But he landed on Washington, it's an NFC team, the Raiders wouldn't mind, uh, sending him away out of conference. Uh, Washington has the cap room.
19:09
And what better way, you know, w- Jayden Daniels would immediately have, like, one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL.
19:15
By the way, Devonte would be wide receiver two, just in case y'all are wondering, 'cause the incomparable one is on the other side. Um, that's great, but you're, you're not winning a Super Bowl this year.
19:27
Uh, like, let's, let's not get that crazy. Too, too young. So- Yeah, too young. You need, you still need that draft capital. Yeah, so I don't- You're not worth it...
19:33
I'm like, I'm not really exci- I, I don't want that, right? Like, I, as, as a Washington fan, while that sounds great in the moment...
19:39
And he, Barnwell was trying to, to, to act like it was like a Houston Texans kind of thing. "Oh, you have your great quarterback, C.J. Stroud, last year you figured it out." Yeah. "Jayden Daniels, same thing."
19:47
I was like, "Nah, not this time." Nah. I agree. Um, and it was like, "And they got Diggs." Like, uh, yeah, but they got Diggs a year late after they got to the playoffs. Anyway, uh, N- NFL power rankings.
19:56
Uh, I got the Niners number one still. Um, and they got players back. Obviously everybody but CMC. Look, Christian McCaffrey, bilateral Achilles tendonitis. In both legs is what that means. What? Yeah, both legs. Man.
20:12
So, by the way, this is, this is also one of these weird media things. John Lynch said this on KNBR in San Francisco last week. Nobody picked up on it, and then this week it became, like, a firestorm of news.
20:21
It's like it's already out. C- can I pull a Gil real quick? I had knee tendonitis too. I was playing football in, uh, high school. Yeah. Between that and overall laziness, it ended my career.
20:30
Well, I never said it ended my career. [laughs] No, no, I know. Uh, see, and- Sorry, you talk, you talking about the Achilles. Okay. I'm talking tendonitis. See, you took it, you took it one step too far though.
20:37
[laughs] I still got the Chiefs at two, but the Chiefs is t- is tenuous at two. Yeah. Uh, that's, that's shaky. Even though, again, Mahomes is the, the sy- the NFL system hack to all of this. The Ravens remain at three.
20:50
This is why we do power rankings. Again, uh, everyone was down on the Ravens. I never wavered from them. I still think they're the third best team in football. I got the Lions at four. The Vikings are my five.
21:02
I can't wait to find out what Aaron Schatz's DVOA is on some of this stuff. Uh, the Texans remain at six for me. The Packers remain at seven, ev- even in defeat this past week.
21:12
I got the Seahawks at eight now after that Lions, af- after that loss to the Lions. Again, I feel better about them and a loss than I did with them three and 0, and I got the Mike McDonald Coach of the Year tickets.
21:21
Bills remain at nine, and the Jets fall to 10.
21:27
Th- this is where I love, uh, I love these weeks when we do power rankings, 'cause you see all the blue on Gil's graphic where it just means nothing's really moved a whole lot. Yeah, yeah.
21:35
And then we go to mine, where there's not much blue at all- [laughs]... because there's a whole lot of green and red happening with, with some movers here. Okay, I would- Yeah, you're starting to see things my way.
21:44
I, I'm gonna start at the top this time. Yeah. I went Niners up to one. Thank you. Chiefs to two, but I'm kinda like, I, should they go back further? Kinda like you said, Gil, I think time will tell on that.
21:54
I'm gonna leave them at two right now. Lions up to three. I do give them the slight edge over the Ravens. That was kinda, I was going back- But you moved them both up...
22:02
I was going back and forth on that, but moved them both up. Uh, well, I think for both those teams they've dropped back, [chuckles] moved up, dropped back, uh, the last couple weeks for me. So Lions three, Ravens four.
22:12
Bills I'm gonna hold onto at five. I also don't think they're gonna be very active after Davante Adams. I actually think what they've got working right now, uh, on the ground game, it suits them pretty well.
22:22
Texans up to one. Those top six teams pretty solid for me. Eagles down to seven. Some question marks, but I'll give them an excuse with all the injuries, uh, to the big time, uh, wide receivers out there.
22:32
Vikings up two spots to two. Seahawks stay at nine for me. Packers up into a top 10 at number 10. Eagles were my 11. Yeah, I, Jets were probably down to my 11 now. All right. I know I promised Mark Borchard last segment.
22:46
I lied. Now I will try to keep my promise. Mark Borchard on Major League Baseball next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. A numbers game has a special offer this week only.
22:58
You could score 40% off our football season special when you use promo code ANG. That's promo code ANG.
23:06
Sign up now and get full VSiN pro, uh, VSiN Pro access to everything we do from now through the Super Bowl, including daily best bets with a leaderboard showcasing the top pros and their impressive ROI, 19 hours of live programming, proven betting systems, exclusive betting splits updated every five minutes with DraftKings odds, see where the money's moving.
23:22
Save 40% off the football season special this week only when you sign up and use promo code ANG. As in A Numbers Game, Gil. Thank you. This offer expires October 7th, just five days away, so do not wait.
23:33
Go to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up now. That's V-S-I-N.com/S-U-B-S-C-R-I-B-E. See what I did there? Yeah. Yeah. I could spend, like, all segment just telling things.
23:45
And that, and that's A Numbers Game, Gil, not A-N-G-G, 'cause that's not the promo code. I- Did I say that? No, I said that. A Numbers Game, Gil. Oh, right. Comma Gil. Yeah, don't do that. Yeah, yeah. Comma. Just ANG.
23:56
Yeah, yeah, [laughs] yeah. Yeah, look at that. A-N-G-G will not work. [laughs] Just people typing- [laughs]... "Why doesn't this work?" Uh, we get tweets at Beat of the Book. Best listeners in the game.
24:03
Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback. Um, this is from, uh, this is really nice. This is about the Pete Rose segment yesterday. This is from, um, MeowSelf.
24:14
Uh, "The way Gil talks about the responsibility to curate culture and history," listen to this one, Kelly, "almost objectively could be applied to many discussions taking place in the world beyond baseball." Yep.
24:23
"Society does a bad job taking this responsibility seriously." It's a very, very nice tweet. And from Kevin as well on the Pete Rose segment yesterday, "A strikingly..." This is like a, uh, plaque in a museum, this one.
24:34
"A strikingly articulate and nuanced summary of Pete Rose and Bonds and the Hall. Stands out in a really good way amongst all the other takes. Kudos to you, Gil.
24:42
Put the betting talk aside, I think you have the best sports talk show going." How about that? Wow. What, what- Thank you, Kevin... what did we do to deserve that? My God, thank you so much.
24:52
This is also from, uh- Kevin, who was born in 1916. [laughs] Apparently so.
24:57
Uh, this is, by the way, this, uh, we say things, we don't know what's gonna get reaction on this show, and I was making the joke about, oh, don't forget, the MLB Network will absolutely telegraph the pass, whoever does win Rookie of the Year, by who they think they're cleverly having, you know, in, you know, give out the award.
25:12
Yeah. And it's always like, like, like, like Bryce Harper's mom. Oh, I guess Bryce Harper won this thing. Uh, so we had multiple people [laughs] sent out the gr- so they all, they all had the same idea on this.
25:23
This is from, uh, this is from Jason Stark. "Hey, Gil, it better be Livvy Dunn or MLB Network if it's Skeens."
25:30
Uh, Sam Ginsburg, "I heard Olivia Dunn is presenting N- N- NL Rookie of the Year," National League Rookie of the Year.
25:35
And then Brian M, everybody had the same joke, "MLB should get Olivia Dunn to give out National League Rookie of the Year, then have it be someone other than Skeens." He said, "Oh, a little curveball-" And I- "...
25:43
we wanted to throw in there"... I saw again yesterday, $4 million a year for her in NIL money. Four mil. By the way, that's Skeens' girlfriend. Ooh. Last we heard, um, that's Skeens' girlfriend. So, um,
25:56
and then Jimmy Lopez, "I just tried the promo code ANGG and it did not work." [laughs] Will un partido de numeros work if I try that? No, it will not. Um, and then, uh, let's see.
26:06
There's some others here that I wanna get to. Samuel Ciari says, "After a special ANG investigation, the idea is to win the World Series." Exactly right. Thank you all for all your tweets.
26:14
We'll read more coming up on the show. What are we doing this segment again? I always, I always forget. We've been leaving Mark Borchardt hanging on the line for- Oh, that's right. Mark Borchardt-...
26:21
roughly 12 minutes now... joining the show. 'Cause Mark Borchardt was supposed to be the last segment. [laughs] Now he's this segment. Mark Borchardt joins us from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert.
26:28
Uh, you can follow him, uh, on Twitter @basewinner, basewinner.com. He's got the Bet US Baseball Show, and of course, he comes to us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Mark, best time of year, isn't it?
26:39
Yeah, this is really cool. You know, as much as, as it's somewhat random because you got these three-game series, you can't beat the excitement. No. That's for sure, Gil. Can't. Did you do well yesterday?
26:50
Who did you have? You know, I, I had a pretty good start. I was really heavy on the Padres, which I, which I'm going to be again tonight, and probably throughout the playoffs.
26:59
Uh, but, uh, and then I got off to a decent start. I just had, that was the only s- real play that I had, and then I had the, the Mets series play and, uh, the Royals series play, which I thought- Nice... had value.
27:12
And the Mets is more the, more of a hedge 'cause I have the Brewers, um, in, to win that, uh, National League and the World Series, but I just, I don't think they're gonna get there, Gil.
27:22
You don't think who's, you don't think the Mets are gonna get there? The Brewers. The Brewers. I don't think the Brewers are gonna get there.
27:26
I, I think that, uh, uh, they've, they've really, you know, they're, the Brewers are kind of like that Air Supply song, ma- making love out of nothing at all.
27:35
[laughs] And, and they, and they really have, and I, I, um, m- maybe, maybe they, they have a little bit more than nothing, but like a mid, making love out of mid-level statistics.
27:44
And, uh, and that's what they've been doing. But, uh, you know, they, they beat the Mets in, in, in must-win games over the weekend that the Mets had. Uh, so maybe that they'll, they'll surprise some people.
27:54
But for today, uh, one of the plays that I have is, is the Mets' first five. I think it's, it's, it's pretty valuable at minus 104. I have it priced about minus 145, so, so that's one of my plays for the day.
28:06
And, and, uh, although, you know, y- uh, t- with these futures, when you have these big futures, you're almost, like, rooting against a play when you make this, uh, but, but you have to, I think, I think at some point you have to hedge when you have these bigger plays, Gil.
28:20
Yeah, um, by the way, uh, Mark quoted Air Supply earlier. Guys, can we, uh, re- restore his street cred for a second? Can we do that? Noted lyricist. Noted lyricist Mark Borchardt. I mean- I'm laid back.
28:29
Got my mind on my money- [laughs]... and my money on my mind. Thank you very much, Mark Borchardt, everybody. Well, I'm diverse.
28:34
You know, I, I can, and, and I did, I did a little bit of Ian Anderson, uh, Jethro Tull yesterday 'cause I thought Jethro Tull, or, uh, Ian Anderson was gonna be the starter [laughs] for the Braves. Wow.
28:43
So I, I'm, I'm diverse a- as far as that goes, Gil. [laughs] Jethro Tull reference, everybody. [laughs] For those, uh, 60 and over on the show. Uh, okay, uh, let me just ask you this. I, I am on the Tigers today.
28:55
Now, the Tigers are doing the old mix and match, right? Holton is starting, but this is, this is the most amazing thing about this baseball team.
29:03
Again, they have two real starters, and then it's just, it's a goulash model, as Todd Wishnev would say, right? They just are gonna patchwork things together. I talked a little bit about this with Spory yesterday.
29:14
It makes them a fascinating baseball team, uh, a la San Francisco Giants three World Series, uh, titles early last decade, a la Kansas City Royals, where they sort of worked from the back to the front when they won their World Series, uh, midway through the, uh, the last decade.
29:32
Um, and I just, you know, I, I think about those as sort of the precursors to what the Tigers are doing, because the Tigers are doing that on steroids.
29:40
But from a handicapping standpoint, it becomes a little more difficult, admittedly, to wrap your arms around. Would you s, would you say that as well? Um, I, yeah, I don't know.
29:51
I mean, I think that, I think, first of all, great allusion to the Ray J song, uh, 'cause they are hitting it from the front and from the back. But, uh, for, for me- [laughs]...
30:01
for me, I, I, I think it's a, it's a good play here. Um, you know, Reese Olson and Hunter Brown, I have real similar, and Reese Olson's gonna be the bulk guy, uh, that, that I have listed.
30:12
So, uh, yeah, I think Detroit's in a pretty good position.
30:15
I think if they lose, it's an interesting series 'cause if they lose today, I've got the, the, uh, the Astros, uh, Kikuchi versus a bulk guy, Casey Mize, uh, favored, like, severely.
30:26
Like, I'm almost, like, minus 300 on, on the, on the first five. I think, I think tomorrow's maybe Full game price for me is, is -224.
30:34
So I think it's now or never for the, for the, uh, uh, for the Tigers in this game, Gil. Well, the, the one yesterday was the one they had to have, right? They gotta win the Scoobel games.
30:45
Uh, my whole, you know, I have them in World Series match-ups, and my whole thing with them is it, it's just a, you know, you get Scoobel in one game of a best of three, you get Scoobel in two games of a best of five if it lasts that long.
30:56
So it's just kind of here's your, here's the s- the presumptive Cy Young Award winner in a large percentage of games in those opening two series.
31:04
Now, once you get to a championship series, then it gets dicey, but that's kind of the whole Tigers, um, sort of handicap. And so I, I do have them today 'cause I think that price.
31:12
By the way, it's, it's actually four cents better now, +161 I'm seeing on the Tigers going up against the Astros today. So again, your plays today are? You know, I'll make that a first five play, uh, the Tigers.
31:25
Oh, look at you. I'm gonna g- Okay... I'm gonna go, um, I'm gonna go first five Mets. Uh, I think that that should be pri- I, it's -104. I think it should be priced about -140.
31:34
And then this one, the Padres first five, and I also kind of like a, a, a little parlay here that pays pretty good.
31:41
If you go p- uh, P- Padres first five and then the under three and a half in the, in the same game, it, it pays +254. And I just think there's some numbers with Musgrove.
31:52
His, uh, his stuff plus numbers are, like, some of the, like, two of his last three starts have been in the s- in the top 10, uh, from the athletic stuff plus number that they put out there.
32:04
And so I think when he's come back, he's been pretty tremendous.
32:08
You look at his, uh, uh, four of his, four of his last five, uh, games base winner ERA under three, including, uh, two at, uh, in under 1.5, so 1.44 and a 1.01, uh, in, uh, two of his last starts.
32:24
And, and then against the Dodgers, he, he was, he was pretty decent, 3.64 base winner ERA in that one. So I just think we have such an edge in the starting pitching here.
32:33
Um, I mean, Max Fried is h- has, has the experience, but I just, he's just not scoring as high on the numbers, Gil, as, as from the advanced numbers perspective- Okay... uh, as the Padres.
32:44
Okay, so Padres first five, also the under in the first five in that game.
32:47
And then I don't wanna confuse people, 'cause we were talking Tigers, and I'm not sure if you meant the Tigers before or if you were referring back to your first bet. What's the other bet? No, no, I, I like the Tigers.
32:56
Okay. The first, first five Tigers should be a pick 'em, and whatever you're getting is probably better than a pick 'em on that first five. Okay, and your first bet was the Mets again. The Mets, yeah. Okay.
33:05
Full game or first five? I'm gonna play the first five there. First five and everything. I, I think that that's, that's a g- better, better to isolate it down like that. Okay. Who's in the World Series, Mark?
33:14
I think the P- I think Padres futures are looking really good. You saw King. Wow. Ooh. He pitched like a king. He pitched like a king last night.
33:22
And, uh, and then Musgrove, the, I, I s- I cited those stuff plus numbers, that they're, they're pretty amazing. And Dylan Cease, I mean, you know, okay. Yeah.
33:29
Show me the, show me the, the rotation that's better than that, Gil. Padres. He's all about it, with a Jethro Tull and a Ray J reference, both of them in one segment. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it. Gil, my pleasure.
33:40
Have a great time today. Mark Borchardt, base winner. Sexy Kenna. We'll come back. More football and baseball next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
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34:30
That's F-O-R-T-H-E-P-E-O-P-L-E.com/bestbets, or #LAW, #529 from your cell. This is a paid advertisement. Kelly, I always love the adjusted season win totals in the National Football League. Uh, today is no different.
34:45
I think you waited the proper amount of time before we sort of- Yep... revisited them. Um, I have three. You have two. Do you wanna do yours first, or should I do mine first?
34:52
Let's go with yours, but let's start with that conversation of the, uh, of the timing on these. Yes. I do think as much as we build the, these up, I think you brought up a good point.
35:00
I don't think they're really worth looking at doing too much with until we get about to this point in the season. Well, they are if they make a mistake, right?
35:06
Like, if they, if they adjust beyond what makes sense, like that Broncos example that I gave from, you know, the first year they had these legalized, where it's like, "Hey, your win total's eight and a half.
35:15
Oh, you won a game that you're favorite? It's 11 and a half." Right, yeah. Like, literally they did that. Yeah, yeah. Well, and we almost saw it this year, 'cause I know they're on your list.
35:22
This year we almost saw the opposite. The Steelers [laughs] started racking up wins, and they weren't really budging on them because we know about what their schedule's like down the stretch. Yeah.
35:30
Or what we thought their schedule was gonna be like down the stretch. All right. I'm gonna do, I'm gonna do this, and I don't usually do it like, oh, I like this one the best. Yeah. But I'm actually gonna rank these.
35:36
Okay. All right? The one that I like the third most is the under on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Mm. Jaguars under six and a half, -125. That's the price at DraftKings right now.
35:48
I don't know if you know this, Kelly, but the Jaguars are 0 and 4. Have you gotten that memo? 0 and 4 are the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yep, not good. Uh, so they gotta win seven games of the remaining 13 to beat me here.
36:00
They gotta go seven and six. Uh, and as I look at this schedule, are there winnable games? Yes, of course there are.
36:08
And, you know, of course, we always know the pitfalls of doing the whole, "Okay, that's a win, that's a loss, that's a win, that's a loss," 'cause it's the NFL for God's sakes. Yeah.
36:14
But you do have a general sense of, you know, again, they've gotta go seven and six. Here are just some of the games they have to play. They gotta play Green Bay. They gotta go at Philly.
36:23
They gotta play Minnesota at home. They gotta go at Detroit. Some of these, by the way, are go, are London as well. There's a London in there as well. But they got the Jets, right, as well. These are opponents.
36:33
Um, so there's a n- there's a lot of good opponents, and yes, there's a lot of beatable ones as well, but Do you trust this team to have a winning record the rest of the way? Look at that right there.
36:44
The Patriots game is the one in London, so they don't even get a home game out of that. The Patriots are pesky. The Bears are... So they have back-to-back in London, right?
36:52
It's Colts this week that are back-to-back in London against the Bears and the Patriots, which are de facto home games for the Jacksonville Jagwires. Hate that.
37:01
But then look, Packers, Eagles, Vikings, Lions, couple of those being on the road. Then at the very end there, you still got Texans and Jets, right? Yeah.
37:09
And do you, do you trust the Jaguars to win the games that they're supposed to win? I'll fade that. I don't think they're going seven and six the rest of the way, and that's what they'd have to do to beat me.
37:17
It's under six and a half on a team that I thought might win this division pre-flop. Yeah, this is the, the only way I could play anything Jaguars would be under. Yeah.
37:26
But I- I'm a little nervous, like the next few weeks, right, the next three weeks in particular, we're gonna know for sure what this team is really like after those three weeks.
37:35
'Cause maybe they pick up a couple wins here, maybe they're a little bit more competitive, or it's just, "Oh boy, Jacksonville might be the worst team in the NFL." The one I like the second best,
37:45
ladies and gentlemen, I'm still under on the Pittsburgh Steelers. I know they're three and one. I do. I am aware of this. They too have to go seven and six the rest of the way to beat me though here.
37:56
Um, keep in mind, if they go, if they go six and seven, Mike Tomlin still has his winning record. Um, I guess, what is that? Six and seven would get you nine and eight, right? Yeah.
38:07
So they could, they could technically be five, six, and one, and they would still not have a losing record. I... Yeah, the key is not losing season. Yeah. Yeah. But the adjusted win total is nine and a half.
38:15
Listen, I still have the eight, eight, eight and the seven and a half from pre-flop, uh, seven and a half being, uh, alt- Yeah, me too... season l- under. I, I, I still think those are in play.
38:23
But the under nine and a half I like, because look, again, they play, this week they play the Cowboys. Maybe you think they're gonna beat the Cowboys. I don't know.
38:32
Um, then they're at the Raiders, then they host the Jets, and host the Giants before they go to their bye week. Let's give them a six and two. Let's, let's say they go three and one. I wanna be, like, overly generous.
38:46
Okay. I'm gonna be overly generous. Let's say they go six and two into the bye. C- I'm gonna jump in real quick. Yeah. They did not make my list, Gil- Yeah...
38:53
because of what you're describing right now of, I think you would, you could be okay if you wanted to hold off on this bet. Well, that's a good call. You could be. You could be. But i-i-it's a good call.
39:04
They also could be five and three and miss the boat. Right [laughs]. Right, exactly. Right? They also could be five and three very easily.
39:09
This game this week might have a lot to do with it, and you could miss the boat on this. But let's just, again, you know, we said this is a gauntlet. Has the gauntlet changed that much? It's at the Commanders. I said it.
39:21
That's worse than it looked before, right? Yeah, right. That one got tougher. That one got tougher. Then it's home Ravens, at the Browns. It's still a division game. It's at the Bengals.
39:31
We all expect the Bengals to still, you know, be good by that point. Maybe not all of us, but some of us do. There is a home game against the Browns, but it's at Eagles. It's at Ravens. It's Chiefs on Christmas.
39:40
It's Bengals again. Um, you win in four of those last nine- Those last four weeks... if you go six and two. Look, I'm, I'm giving you the six and two. I'm being generous. Right. Yeah, yeah. Are you gonna go four...
39:53
Are you going to go four and five the... Excuse me. And yeah, are you gonna go four and five the rest of the way, even if I give you six and two? No. But if I give you five and three, then you gotta go five and four.
40:03
Forget about it. Yeah. So under nine and- Good call... under nine and a half for me on the Steelers. But the one I like the most, and I like those a lot, is the Dolphins under seven and a half.
40:14
The Dolphins, who for all intents and purposes should be winless.
40:17
But remember, they got that win against the Jaguars because of the, uh, that fumble by Etienne on the way into the end zone, followed by the 80-yarder to, uh, Tyreek, and it just changed that whole game around.
40:28
Um, and they ended up eking out the win. But Dolphins under seven and a half, so you gotta go seven and s- uh, excuse me, what is it? Seven and six the rest of the way if you're the Miami Dolphins.
40:39
Tua is out for another two games, so we know Tua's gone. Now, do I expect Huntley to be as bad as he was the other night? I really don't. But they got a game at New England this week.
40:50
Uh, they better win that if I'm gonna get beat. 'Cause if they lose that, oh boy, heading into the bye they'll be one and four. But let's give them that. Let's do the generous thing. All right?
40:59
I'm a g- a generosity kinda guy on these things. Two and three into the bye. All right. Look at the rest of the way then.
41:06
Then they've got a, a little bit of a softer one in the middle there, but it's still at Bills and at Rams, with pesky games against teams like the Cardinals and the Patriots. And this is, now this is when the, uh, uh...
41:18
Okay, by the way, this is when they get Tua back, right? Mm. In these situations. Then look at that last stretch, at the Packers, home Jets, at Texans, home Niners, at Browns, at Jets.
41:30
Uh, you telling me they're going, even if I gave you the win against the Patriots, a two and three, are you telling me they're winning s- they're winning half of the rest of those games?
41:39
Not the way they look now they're not, to get to, to get to the number they have to get to. I love the Dolphins under. Yeah, this was one that I heavily considered as well, uh, adding to my list, ended up leaving off.
41:50
I, I, I'm a lit- the only thing that scares me is we know how good they can look when Tua's there and at, when that offense is firing on all cylinders. But I mean, right now, there's not much faith in this team.
42:02
So I- They were still a bully when they were good. Correct. Yeah. That's true. This, this amazing team that we're remembering was still a bully.
42:09
If it was someone their own size that picked on them that was their own size, they, they, they wilted. Mm-hmm. So I love the under there. Yeah. Three others.
42:15
Those were, uh, almost everyone on your list is, were t- were ones that I considered. Uh, went with two myself for this. Uh, two different teams too. Cowboys under nine and a half.
42:25
Uh, and this one is, you know, a little bit of a, a little bit of still the pre-season priors we had on this team, Gil, fa- fading them a little bit.
42:33
But man, these defensive injuries are getting a little scary with the Lawrence, Lawrence hitting the IR, Micah Parsons, uh- Yeah, man... looks like he could be heading that way as well.
42:42
Um, we keep talking about, man, you're one CeeDee Lamb injury away from being who's on this offense that can do anything.
42:49
So I, when, when you're still posting a, a nine and a half win total on this, on this team, uh, that I think is looking, starting to look more and more mediocre as the weeks go on, uh, and as the injuries rack up, I've got major concerns for the Cowboys, uh, getting to a winning record.
43:05
You're talking about getting to 10 wins. I think that's gonna be pretty tough with what that schedule looks like down the stretch. Again, we talk about teams like Commanders and Giants, right?
43:13
A- and when you're talking NFC East games even, these teams have been better than what we thought they were gonna be before the season. So even those don't look nearly as easy on the way out for them.
43:22
Other team I played, Gil, uh, this is the biggest reaction in the market, right? It is Vikings up to 11 and a half on their w- on their win total. Ooh. I can only look under when we adjust a team that much.
43:32
As much as I like this Vikings team, I love what this coaching staff does, man, this is, I, well- 12, 12 and five is asking a lot... 12 and five is a lot. Yeah.
43:41
And regression you expect to set in at some point down the line here, and some of these t- some of these teams that I can look at on their schedule that I think are coin flippy games, you just expect some s- some things to start to go against Minnesota.
43:54
And, and guess what? The, my thoughts on the NFC North, nothing's really changed, uh, on the strength of it, except for the Vikings are a little bit better than I expected [laughs], right?
44:03
But they're still going to run into tough match-ups with the Lions and the Packers, in my opinion, down the stretch.
44:08
Adjusted season win totals, um, one of my favorite markets, not just 'cause I have history with it, but I do think that, um, they're not, books are not quite as good at pricing these or adjusting these as they are to something more static, um, that they can look at for months, obviously- Yeah...
44:27
before the season starts. That makes, that should be logical to everybody. We'll come back. Aaron Shotts, so many questions next on The Numbers Game.
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