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Oct 2, 2024
A Numbers Game | October 2, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | October 2, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, alongside as well.
0:23
Still to come this hour, uh, we will talk with Jason Weingarten on baseball, get into, uh, more of the MLB postseason as all the game twos, or the games two, however you're supposed to say that, uh, happened today, another quarter- another, uh, quadruple header.
0:36
What a great, what a great week of sports this is.
0:40
Maybe my favorite with, uh, baseball postseason and such volume of baseball postseason during the week, and then of course, uh, football, college and pro, on the weekend.
0:49
Uh, but always a pleasure to have this gentleman on and thrilled to have him on. He, he's kind enough to come on sort of every quarter.
0:55
I know 17 games now makes it a little janky, uh, but, but roughly every quarter of the NFL season. He also does a couple mega pods a year, one in the, uh, regular season for sure if we can't get him for the postseason.
1:05
It is the creator of DVOA. He was the founder of Football Outsiders and now is the chief analytics officer. That is the title he's going by at FTN. It's Aaron Schatz, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
1:17
How you doing, Aaron? I am good, man. It's been an interesting season, but I'm enjoying it. It, it has been. It's been great. I wanna get into all of it.
1:24
Uh, first thing I wanna say, 'cause I texted you the other night, I'm watching Sunday Night Football and, uh, was it Sunday Night Football, I believe it was? Yes. Yes.
1:31
And, uh, Cris Collinsworth, uh, references, obviously 'cause Baltimore was playing, he references the fact that Lamar Jackson wa- was just one vote shy of a unanimous MVP, and the way he worded it sounded like he was about to say your name, but then [laughs] he came out with the other person that you voted for, which was Josh Allen.
1:50
Did you think for a moment he was gonna say your name? I thought it was possible. I was like, "Oh look, they're talking about me." [laughs] And I thought it was possible that he was gonna say something about,
2:00
you know, the guy who voted for Josh Allen was an analytics guy or something. Yeah. You know? Just to sort of specify what kind of guy voted for Jo- Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson.
2:11
I got a couple of, you know, notes about that game, certainly from people who don't understand how years work, right? I mean, the, you know, the vote on MVP for 2023 was based on 2023, not 2024.
2:24
[laughs] And obviously Josh Allen did not look good on Sunday night. That's right. It's [laughs] it's a different year, everybody.
2:29
That's interesting that you got a couple notes about that, people trying to corroborate, uh, things or, or, or actually refute things.
2:36
Uh, let's start with you came on in July, I believe it was, or, or early August, one of, one of the other, you were in the off season.
2:42
And through the FTN Almanac that you, or the FTN Football Preview, you had some stuff to say on the show.
2:49
And I remember you came strong with a bunch of stuff, and I'm curious how you feel about a couple of these things through four games or how it projects moving forward.
2:56
Let's start with the fact that you came on here and you said, "Hey, New Orleans isn't as bad as people think," and you even thought that they had value in the division market.
3:05
How do you feel about that through four games? Yeah, I feel pretty good about that. New Orleans has been better actually than even I expected, certainly.
3:14
Uh, this weekend was not good for the idea of them winning the division, because they lost by one point in a game with a lot of fluky stuff like the muffed punt recovered for a touchdown.
3:24
And Tampa Bay won, and Tampa Bay looks stronger than expected.
3:28
But I do think that Atlanta has been a little bit of a disappointment to the people that were really high on them, and I still think that New Orleans has played like the best team in the division. In fact,
3:39
I mean, this is a little tweak because even with opponent adjustments, the opponent adjustments for Carolina are not strong enough for the first two games 'cause Bryce Young was so bad.
3:49
But right now, New Orleans is the fourth best two and two team in DVOA history. Wow. Didn't we have a- Balt- I think, I thought we flashed up another graphic of yours where someone was even higher than them through four.
4:03
Baltimore. Okay. Baltimore is the second best two and two team in DVOA history. So both Baltimore and New Orleans have played much better than their two and two records.
4:13
And I think people realize that about Baltimore, especially after the win over Buffalo, but not necessarily realize that about New Orleans. Makes sense. All right. That's interesting.
4:23
Best, two, two of the four best two and two teams- Yeah, when I first put out this table-... in DVOA history...
4:29
New Orleans is missing 'cause when I first put this table online, which is where you got it from, I was missing New Orleans from it. But New Orleans actually slots in fourth ahead of the 2005 Seahawk. Interesting. Okay.
4:40
So another thing you came on here and said... Well, first of all, just referencing Atlanta, I think you came on before they acquired Judon and Simmons. Yes.
4:48
So at the time you're like, "It's the worst defense in the league," but then they made those acquisitions.
4:52
One other thing that sticks out, uh, you said New Eng- 'cause everybody thought, including myself, New England, New England was gonna be god awful. They have won football games here, though.
5:02
Yeah, they won, and they came close to beating Seattle as well. They've been terrible the last two weeks, but I think being terrible against San Francisco, even with San Francisco's injuries, is not, like, a shock.
5:15
Um, they're having a lot of injuries. D- Dugger is out now. Juwan Bentley is out. Uh, David Andrews, the center, now looks like he's out for the season, and their offensive line is horrific.
5:25
I still think the Patriots are more of a 5 and 12 bad than a 2 and 15 bad. Okay. Right? I think they're gonna be competitive against teams like Miami without Tua, and Tennessee, and Jacksonville,
5:40
and I think that they're gonna end up winning five or six games. But with all the injuries that they have, that, that may not be right. Yeah, I made it sound like they won two games. They are one and three.
5:48
And, and I remember before the season you were like, "They could win seven," but now with all the injuries, talking about 5 and 12 team. Here- Right. And it was seven before the Judon trade. It was six...
5:57
I, I had six and a half after the Judon trade. Now it's, you know- Yeah... I'm hoping for five. Here was the last thing. I lied. One more thing from the preseason.
6:04
You also said, 'cause I remember this very clearly Uh, you said Chicago and Indianapolis, Chicago and Indianapolis may be expecting too much from their young quarterbacks right away. That might be your best call so far
6:19
Yeah. Well, what I said was, "You have to expect a rookie quarterback to be bad," and I put Anthony Richardson in that group because he's had hardly played.
6:29
I said, "It's probable that one of them will be good, but we have no idea which one." And guess what? Mm-hmm One of them is good.
6:39
[laughs] It's not the one I would've expected it to be, to be perfectly honest, not because I have anything against Jayden Daniels, but because I was very skeptical of Kliff Kingsbury as the offensive coordinator.
6:50
That's right. But there's no ba-... I mean, Jayden Daniels has been absolutely phenomenal, and Chicago and, uh, Denver have disappointed, and Indianapolis only hasn't disappointed because they got a game and a flack.
7:05
All right. We talked about the t- the two two-and-two teams that are sort of historical. You go all the way back to 1979 now with this? Yep. Okay. Um, what a, what an amazing project that this has gotten you all.
7:16
But you actually got play-by-play all the way back to 1979. It's amazing. We'll have 1978 next off-season, yeah. Wow. I thought we hit a wall. You, you found a new sort of way to get these?
7:27
There's a couple of games we can't find from 1978. There's a week one game where because the Pope was in America, the game was preempted- [laughs]... and therefore, like, no one has it on video.
7:39
Uh, we may be able to go before 1978, but we can definitely do '78. Did we used to preempt NFL games for the Pope being in America? Wow. Yeah, something like that. May- I- you know, maybe not in Chicago and St.
7:51
Louis, but in other markets- Right... and no one in Chicago and St. Louis seems to have taped it, so. All right. Well, let's go to your entire DVOA rankings through week four in the National Football League.
8:01
Who's your best? Who's at the top? Number one right now is the 4 and 0 Minnesota Vikings. I've got my Minnesota little people right here. [laughs] Look at that. There you go. What, what year is that from?
8:14
They're ready for the, they're ready for the season. Minnesota's defense has been number one this year, really good. Uh, okay. Minnesota followed by the Ravens. The Saints are third. Wow. Yeah. Yeah.
8:26
Now, again, like I said, even though I added opponent adjustments this week, the fact is Carolina was so much worse in the first two weeks than the second two weeks that it's r- you're sort of, like, overrating the Chargers and the Saints because they played the Bryce Young Panthers, but the Saints have been really good.
8:43
I'm looking at the rest of this top 10. Seahawks four, Lions five, Bills six, Niners seven. Of course, they had some injuries in some games. Steelers eight, Chiefs nine, Packers 10.
8:52
Let's talk about the Steelers for a second. That's, uh, that's all defense there?
8:57
Yeah, that's one of, uh, the things I was wrong about in the preseason, is that we had the Steelers' defense regressing towards the mean, and the Steelers' defense has in fact been really good.
9:07
And Justin Fields has been all right, which is much better than I would've expected given his first three years.
9:13
He's, he's looks like a real live NFL starting quarterback, not a good one, but an average one, which is much better than he had been in the past.
9:21
Now, obviously these are reflections of what's happened already in the first four games. Is it your sense that this is something that will s- that will be sustainable for the Pittsburgh Steelers?
9:33
I mean, I, I still feel like we have more knowledge about Justin Fields from three years than we do from four games, and I do feel like he's gonna come back to earth a little bit.
9:43
But, um, you know, I think it's likely that the defense being good... You know, the defense has been good every year, so I think it's probable that I was wrong about the regression and their defense is still good.
9:54
Who's at the very bottom of your list here, Aaron? Uh, the last place team right now is the Cleveland Browns. [exhales] Wow. And, uh, Miami is 31st- Yeah...
10:05
which is a shock, but their defense has been bad and their offense has been terrible except for week one. And Tua was bad, and then Tua got hurt, and it's been terrible- Yeah... really awful since then.
10:18
And then Jacksonville is 30th, New England 29th, and Carolina 28th. The Cleveland thing is fascinating to me 'cause, again, I'm, I'm down on...
10:28
I mean, I, I've said a couple times this week, I think Miami might end up being the worst team. Um, but Cleveland, I mean, is that just a, a full comprehensive fail? Or what, what's the, what's the part?
10:39
Is it Deshaun Watson starts that explanation, I guess? Oh, absolutely. It starts with Deshaun, the fact that at this point we... Deshaun Watson is never gonna be the guy that he was.
10:50
Uh, but also they've had, uh, i- injuries on the offensive line, and their defense, which was supposed to be among the best in the league, has been very average, which I think we'll regret.
11:04
I think that between the talent they have on defense, even though Myles Garrett is dealing with some injuries, and the fact that Jim Schwartz is good, I think their defense will return to being at least a top 10 defense.
11:16
But their offense is such a black hole that it's not gonna matter. All right. Uh, Aaron is kind enough to stick around for, for a couple segments with us every time when we do the quarterlies. Uh, this is no different.
11:26
He is an awards voter as well, and there's only 50 guys, 50 guys and girls who vote on these things. There's only 50 votes for NFL awards. Um, different ranking systems for each.
11:38
We'll see if we can prize some thoughts out of Aaron on that.
11:41
Uh, and then, uh, look into if there's a unit or two that has, uh, stood out, uh, all granular from the perspective of DVOA, his proprietary stat, coming back on A Numbers Game.
11:50
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12:08
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12:17
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12:29
Go to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up now. There's V- uh, that is V-S-I-N.com/subscribe, vsin.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, uh, Aaron Schatz kind enough to, uh, hang with us for a second segment.
12:41
He again is the Chiefs an- uh, the chief, pardon me, the chief analytics officer at FTN, the creator of DVOA, again, which looks at football, the NFL, on a play-by-play level, every single play, uh, all the way back to 1979 and going back further in history.
12:58
Uh, we should point out again, the '91 Washington Redskins and the 2007 Patriots, depending on how you look at it, with postseason or without, the greatest teams of all time.
13:07
Um, Aaron comes to us once again courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Before I forget, Aaron, where can people access all your stuff the best? Sure. FTNFantasy.com is the site. We do a lot more than fantasy though.
13:20
We do DFS optimizers. We do betting suggestions. We have DVOA. My site is FTNFantasy.com/DVOA.
13:29
You'll find all the content there by me, Brian Knowles, Alex Bickle, Scott Spratt, et cetera, that's DVOA related, and then you can expand from there to all the other stuff that we have at FTN.
13:40
All right, last que- last few questions about, uh, DVOA, and then I wanna get to award stuff. Where do the Washington Commandos fall on your list?
13:48
Yeah, so the Commanders are surprising because we don't have them number one on offense. I actually wrote about this a little bit yesterday. Reasons why EPA stats have them as like a legendary almost- Yes...
14:01
offense, and we have them second behind Baltimore, like still really good. But, um, you know, there's a few things. For example, they've recovered all of their own fumbles.
14:11
The only interception that Daniels threw had no return, so these things mean more in EPA than they do in DVOA. Uh, they're 30th on defense. So if you look at drive stats, they're kind of amazing.
14:23
Washington has more than eight yards per drive, more than any other offense. And they have allowed more than six yards per drive more than any other defense. Oh, man. It's an amazingly one-sided team. [laughs] Oh, man.
14:38
Uh, which feels like they're the most over team to, for bettors. They feel like a, just a natural over team in a way that we've never seen through four games. A good offense and a terrible defense.
14:48
Especially because the rest of the league is down this year. Washington is like, "Here are the points." Yeah, both ways. Uh, we did get one question about that.
14:56
But, oh, but before I do this, before we get to the awards, is there a unit then you just alluded to Baltimore having the best offense.
15:02
Is there a specific unit, offense, defense, special teams, which is like an outlier through four weeks?
15:08
I mean, the Vikings defense is, uh, historically pretty good, uh, after, uh, four weeks, and I think the surprising is of the Chargers and Broncos defense as being really top five- Ooh... which is surprising for both.
15:21
Okay. Uh, okay, you are a, you are an awards voter in the National Football League. These are Associated Press, uh, Awards, and you are one of the 50 who votes on these things.
15:31
We have a question from the numbers guys via Twitter, who says, "Can you ask Aaron if Jayden Daniels is a play for MVP? Suppose he extrapolates his current numbers over the next 13 weeks."
15:42
Well, if you, if you say it that way. Yeah. Yeah, if, if he continues on this pace, he'll absolutely be among the top five quarterbacks, which means he absolutely is in the discussion for MVP.
15:53
I think the two things I think, I, you know, I'm not thinking about who I'm gonna vote for at this point, but I think the two things that stand out from early in the seasons is that Daniels is a real candidate, and that Brock Purdy stands out more than he has even in the past, because he's done what he's doing this year despite not getting yards after the catch the way he has in the past, and despite having the injuries that he's been dealing with among other p- members of his offense that he hasn't dealt with in the past, that Purdy looks more real, I think, than he did last year.
16:25
Ladies and gentlemen, that feels like no matter what we say from this point forward, that's gonna be the biggest nugget betting-wise with Aaron here today.
16:32
That is, again, Will Hill was on the show talking about Purdy for MVP also. Uh, I was a huge Purdy guy last year. I had a ticket on him. Obviously, that blew up in flames with the Ravens game.
16:41
But Brock Purdy looks better this year. Like that game, the game they lost to the Rams, he looked spectacular in defeat. Uh, Brock Purdy right now is still at 16 to 1 over at DraftKings for MVP.
16:54
Now, let me just say this. Let me, let me get this clarified too because we're gonna have m- many people asking about this. You're a voter. You know how this goes down.
17:01
MVP is, unless somebody does something ridiculous at another position, is, is generally a quarterback award, right? And- Unless they change the, the, the name of it, yeah...
17:13
and Offensive Player of the Year is the depository for anybody else who's not a quarterback on offense? That's how I vote, yes. That's how you vote. Okay.
17:22
Um, what about Comeback Player of the Year, which obviously you, you were kind enough to come on when you were on, uh, I think it was Super Bowl week, where you told us, "Hey, this language is going to change for Comeback Player of the Year," and it did right after that.
17:35
Um, could Damar Hamlin be considered for that this year given the new language? Uh, that's an interesting question because he came back last year.
17:49
The actual comeback from the injury was last year, but this year he's playing. So I think no, because the comeback from the injury was last year. He would've been considered last year. But- I don't know.
18:02
It's an interesting question because he barely played last year. Right, and, and- Like he played, but he barely played... but the language is, "Has to have missed games because of," dot, dot, dot, right?
18:13
He has the ultimate- Yeah, the darnold... Uh, I'm sorry, but those darnolds are from people who don't understand the new- Oh, the-... the new, uh Let's throw that up again on the screen.
18:22
This is what Aaron's referring to. What he's referring to is for Comeback Player of the Year right now, Aaron Rodgers is the short shot at plus 140. Sam Darnold is right behind him at plus 250.
18:31
So you're saying no chance for a guy like Darnold? I- if, if we all follow what the AP told us to follow, then Darnold is not-- Darnold is the old way, the like, "Oh, here's a most improved player."
18:44
Darnold wasn't injured like Rodgers and Burrow and Kyler Murray and Dobbins and Cousins and so many of the players on this list were injured. Like Darnold is just coming back from being with the Jets, uh, you know?
18:57
[laughs] How we like to say it on this show is Aaron is, uh, he's just coming back from sucking. That's how we usually say it in sort of a flippant way. But that is, that, there's, there's wisdom in that, right?
19:07
So that is no longer-- So that, that's the thing. The NBA has their award is called Most Improved. This is not that anyway, and there should be no bad interpretation of that. Yeah.
19:19
We've been told this year that it should be based on a player who comes back from an injury or some other, you know, off-field issue or something like that.
19:29
It's not for a most improved player who just happened to be bad at his previous stop. And by the way, Darnold wasn't bad at his last two stops. He wasn't bad in San Francisco. He wasn't bad in Carolina.
19:40
He was bad years ago in the Jets. Okay, let's, and I know, and let me just caveat, I know this is only four games. You haven't even thought about awards.
19:49
Um, but I'm just gonna sort of just, uh, like, you know, pry a little bit on this and just try to get into your brain.
19:55
If the, if it was now through a, you know, roughly a quarter, just shy of a quarter of the NFL season, and we're thinking about Offensive Player of the Year, what does your instinct tell you? That who, who would that be?
20:07
Oh, golly. I don't know. Ca- Kamara? Kamara, maybe? Saquon? No, Kamara takes a huge hit from opponent adjustments. Oh, okay. Um, S- Saquon may- Who's been the top receiver this year? Nico Collins? Nico Collins, yeah.
20:24
Y- you know, I mean, you know, maybe I'll be a, a goofball and vote for Trent Williams if somebody needs to vote for, you know- Oh... having one of the great over 35 seasons of all time right there. Okay. Trent Williams.
20:36
Let's talk about that. You just, you just said that would be you being a goofball. Would there be enough goofballs in the group of 50 to make something like that actually happen? I doubt it. Yeah. Yeah.
20:50
'Cause we, we had one of our favorite guests who's coming up, Jason Weingarten, for a whole year. Who was the, who was the lineman on the Giants who, who, who had cancer and came back?
20:58
And for a whole year he was like, "Oh, N- oh, Gates." Was it Nick Gates? Was that his name? Yeah. Brock for Comeback Player of the Year. Yeah. Yes. He was like going crazy about that.
21:05
Actually Comeback Player of the Year. And we're like, yeah, we're like, "No, Jason, there's not gonna be enough people." Um, okay. Same, same question for Defensive Player of the Year.
21:11
Like, who has stood out through four weeks to you? Oh, I honestly don't. Don't know. Okay. No.
21:16
I've seen some stats about Patrick Surtain, but I haven't had a chance to run my own stats about Patrick Surtain to feel like I would do him. Fred Warner, uh, I think has stood out. Um,
21:28
I, you know, it's, I ha- really haven't been thinking about this stuff very- Okay. All right. Just gonna, we only have 60 seconds, so I'm just gonna, I'm just gonna push one last time, though.
21:36
I mean, there's one that's obvious, which is Jayden Daniels, right? Jayden, Jay- Jayden Daniels for [clears throat] Offensive Rookie of the Year is, is, is the obvious one. If we voted today- Yeah...
21:45
I would have to do a ton of research on every award, but- But one. You wouldn't even have to worry about that one. That's right. No, that's not true. Uh, Assistant Coach of the Year would go to Brian Flores.
21:55
Who would be the Coach of the Year to you? [sighs] I would lean O'Connell, but I don't know. There's, there's multiple good ones. Yeah. Coordinator of the Year, though, Flores is running away with right now.
22:09
So much more football to be played, but, but nice of you to sort of just, uh, indulge us on that [clears throat] because we are bettors after all, and so we're curious, uh, what one of the minds of, uh, one of the voters is, and yours is always a generous one, Aaron, and we always appreciate it.
22:24
@AShots_NFL on Twitter? It's just AShotsNFL, no underscore. No underscore. AShotsNFL, S-C-H-A-T-Z. Uh, and again, FTN. Check out all his stuff at, uh, on his Twitter. And again, the, uh, the website again, Aaron, is?
22:41
Is ftnfantasy.com. And, uh, so yeah, Shanah Tovah to you, my friend. Happy New Year, sir. Thank you, Aaron. Jason Weingarten on the other side. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:24
It's Gil Alexander live from the Circa Resort & Casino here in lovely, beautiful downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. Uh, always, uh, appreciate the feedback. We get tweets at BeatingTheBook. Best listeners in the game.
23:35
This is from, uh, Ad Kadakia. Hope I'm saying that right. Aaron Kodak. Uh, "It's been 30 minutes and I'm still cracking up at the Ray J reference. LOL." [laughs] We have more Ray J tweets than anything.
23:46
Uh, Bets by Berg, "Are we just gonna pass over that Ray J reference?" I did re- I did refer to it at the end of the segment. Uh, I said, "Jethrotell and Ray J, how amazing this guy is."
23:55
But, uh, the specifics of his Ray J reference, I, I did not. You're right, I didn't, I didn't mention anything about that. This is from Jason Stark.
24:02
"I think DVOA is a prisoner of the moment with these best ever in the last two years, whether it be the San Francisco-Baltimore last year and how these, uh, two and two teams are doing now.
24:11
I think it shows the flaws in DVOA's accuracy." I'm gonna disagree. I don't think it shows flaws. I think all it's doing is letting you know, right?
24:20
Uh, letting you know what has taken place Per the granular, granular level. Uh, I don't think the San Francisco and Baltimore thing was wrong last year.
24:29
I just think you have in Patrick Mahomes this, again, NFL hack that can... And I don't mean hack that he's bad, I mean he can hack the entire system, he's that good, right? So it doesn't take away from the DVOA rankings.
24:42
What I tried to do here today, specifically in the award market, is, all right, what about these first four weeks can you project forward? Hey, it- it's interesting that New Orleans is two and two.
24:50
Do you feel good about that moving forward? Uh, New England did win a football game in the first four, but how do you feel about them now? And he says, "Oh, well, they have injuries. They'll get to five, not to seven."
24:59
So it's a tool like any other, but I don't think it's a prisoner of the moment. I think it's as good a reflection of what has taken place, uh, that there is.
25:07
It's just our job to sort of as betters then see what is signal and what is noise moving forward. This is from, uh, RB Tref.
25:15
"My mild Wisconsin accent won't let me say anything but Jag-wires and Bangles, [laughs] even Bengals, even if I really focus, but I was shocked to hear that you can say Commanders now so accurately.
25:26
Never heard it before. Usually have to choke it out to say it. LOL." It's been a long time. I'm trying. I, I... It's really hard for me. It's really hard, I'm not gonna lie.
25:34
Table Max, "Gotta love hearing support for Detroit's pitcher pitcher woo woo approach for today's game. #repdetroit." That's clever. Pitcher pitcher woo woo. It's exactly what it is. That's their approach.
25:45
This is from Rich Ang for Pro Pick. He says, "Great take Gil on Pete Rose. I first met Pete during my years as the PR director at Turfway Park, saw him daily in the fall, winter, and spring during downtime from MLB.
25:57
Nobody loved baseball more than Pete. He was his own worst enemy for sure, but it hurt Pete to not be in the Hall of Fame."
26:03
I thought one of the more interesting tweets we got, and forgive me for not remembering exactly who said this yesterday, but he's like, you know, part of the...
26:10
He felt that part of it was Major League Baseball and, and writers knew, well, Major League Baseball for instituting the ban and, and keeping it all these years, even though Pete was his worst enemy, they knew that it hurt Pete so much and that's part of why they kept it going.
26:25
Which is, if that's the case, man, that's awful.
26:27
Um, and then, uh, one more here from 702 s- uh, Steve Sports, who says, "Instead of the Washington football team going for Adams, Davante Adams in a trade, what if they pull off a similar trade they did with Montez Sweat to the Bears last season that helped vastly improve Chicago's defense, so maybe Max Crosby is the correct Raider to go after?
26:46
#playoffs." I don't think Max Crosby wants out of Las Vegas. I think Max Crosby wields more power here in Las Vegas with his franchise than anybody. I don't think he wants to go anywhere.
26:56
He might even have more power than the coach himself based on some of his, uh, off-season thoughts that sort of manifested. Uh, let's go to Jason Weingarten, everybody.
27:06
He's waiting patiently courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at Spreadapedia. He joins us now from a, from under a cloud of smoke, as they say in, uh, Southern California.
27:17
And by they, I mean me. Jason, how you doing, man? Pretty good. How's it going? Good. By the way, have I asked you about Spreadapedia database? I asked you about this once. Does it still exist anywhere? No.
27:26
It, uh, doesn't exist anywhere anymore. Doesn't exist anywhere. Okay. There's your update, everybody, on the Spreadapedia ba- uh, database. Uh, okay. How'd you do yesterday in Major League Baseball, the quartet of games?
27:37
Good. Uh, I had the, uh, I had the, the Tigers in the morning, and I thought that was probably the best game. Uh, pretty light rest of the day. I did bet on the Braves. I don't know what I was thinking there.
27:51
So, uh, gave a little bit of a bet late. The first innings went two and two. Uh, all in all, can't really complain. Are you betting every yes, there will be a run in the first inning today, most likely?
28:02
Ha- haven't decided. Uh, price-wise, it's probably, probably gonna be good to bet, good again. Uh, doesn't mean I, I feel like doing it. I'm, I'm not sure, but yeah, I'll, I'll probably end up doing it. What did you...
28:16
[laughs] I'm, I'm gonna guess you will. I would like to bet on you betting all four of them. [laughs] Um, what, uh, what did you end up betting-wise other than that today? I bet the under in the first game.
28:27
I got seven and a half. Uh, you can get it minus 120 now. It's still good. Uh, it's the Astros Tigers game. And then I got the Padres. Padres minus 112 in the late game.
28:39
I think they're gonna end the Braves' season tonight.
28:42
Uh, you know, give, give Braves credit for playing to the end and clinching on the last day, but the, the Padres really absolutely did the correct thing forcing the Braves to play the double header on Monday and losing on Sunday.
28:58
And it's kind of funny to me to think, like, all year, you know, you, you spend all year handicapping baseball and trying to find all these edges, and then one of the biggest edges comes on literally the last day of the season where you just bet against the, the Padres 'cause they essentially have to lose to force the Braves to play and, you know, now we're in this situation.
29:18
Hopefully can make another bet here and, and, you know, win on the Padres. But that was just a crazy situation on Sunday. I really...
29:25
You know, you don't get those very often, and it was cool to capitalize on something like that. Yeah, it was crazy on Sunday. It was even crazier on Monday, right?
29:32
With the Braves Mets double header where the Mets won in dramatic fashion, and then could just basically hack away in game two like they were double parked outside. You know, even the- I think- Yeah, go ahead...
29:42
I think Monday was, was a super important lesson in not hedging too much when, when you're, you know, worrying about a final event. 'Cause, you know, the Chris Sale thing and everything,
29:53
I, I could've ruined my day, week, month, everything by, by betting way too much on, on the Braves to win that first game or live betting. Um, that, that, that, uh, that was a crazy outcome, but great game.
30:06
I, I- Let's ex-... I actually went and walked my dogs when, uh, the score was six-three and came back- Wow... and I missed the Lindor home run. I walked in the door, I saw eight-seven, I said, "Wow, what did I miss?"
30:16
Yeah, let's explain to people what, what you're talking about, 'cause I think there is a betting sort of lesson in this. So you had Chris Sale most strikeouts for the entire season.
30:23
You needed Sale to get, was it three or four more? Three to tie, four to win, I believe Three to tie, four to win. And remember, the situation was that the Braves were going to play game one, um, hoping...
30:37
Now, we didn't know about back spasms at the time, right? But, uh, the theory- No, but- Yeah... but don't forget, I said on the show one or two times ago, I thought he was hurt, you know? And then they were- Yeah...
30:47
sort of playing it, slow playing it, and that's pretty much exactly what happened.
30:51
And right afterwards Sale said, "I've had back spasms since the last start," and that was the velocity drop we saw on the, you know, the, the, the downtail on his peripherals and everything.
31:01
And, uh, you know, here we are. So, uh- I don't know... I, I was prepared for this. I'm, I'm, I was not shocked, this, so to s- so to speak.
31:10
Yeah, but, uh, the, what you were pointing out though was that you might have played the Braves in game one to win as a sort of, i- knowing that if, if they won the first game he wouldn't go at all.
31:22
Let's say he was completely healthy, that he wouldn't have gone in game two. For all we knew, he was.
31:27
Um, but you decided not to do that, and that was a good move 'cause you could have doubly ruined your, your situation, so. I did. Yeah. I, I did for, I did for, like, 2,000 bucks.
31:36
I mean, I coulda, I coulda done it for 15 or 20, and yeah, it would've just been a very, very poor start to the week. And, uh, you know, those, those, those, those are, uh, not, not fun to, to, to do.
31:48
So I'm, I'm glad I avoided that this time. Okay. So the, z- so you only, only played the Padres in terms of a side today? Oh, uh, Padres and the under in the first game. Padres and the under in the first game.
32:00
Um, I don't know that I asked you this. I asked this of Borchardt and I asked this of Spohrer, and their answers are interesting. So, uh, Borchardt sort of punted on who's meeting in the World Series. He said the Padres.
32:10
Uh, excuse me, Borchardt did today. Spohrer, uh, ultimately in the end, I think he said p- he, he said the, his Tigers are not gonna get...
32:17
He said yesterday, "The Tigers are gonna win," this was yesterday, "they're gonna win game one, then they're gonna get beaten by the Astros."
32:23
And he th- he thought it would be the Padres versus I believe the Yankees, he said. Who do you believe ends up in the World Series in what is the most open baseball postseason I can ever remember?
32:35
I don't think it's gonna be one of these wildcard teams. I think it's gonna be from the, the Dodgers/Yankees sort of pool. Um, maybe, uh, the Guardians. That sound crazy?
32:48
You know, like- No, I have them, I have them in a few matchups. Yeah So, you know, like you said, it's wide open. I wanna see what the Guardians could do.
32:55
But at the end of the day, you look at a team like the Yankees, Judge, Soto, middle of the lineup, I still think they're gonna be the team to beat in the AL. Um, NL, I don't know.
33:05
Dodgers, everyone, everyone's worried about their pitching. Uh, I guess I'm gonna go with Borchardt and say Padres. They, uh, they looked good all year. Let's see, see if they can, uh, keep it going a little longer.
33:17
Last question. Tomorrow, how many games are we gonna have? Zero, one, two, three, or four? I wanna say one or two. Um, you know, it wouldn't surprise me if the Mets get it done tonight, too.
33:30
Uh, it's, it's been a long season playing back to backs and, you know, if some of these teams have been playing all Sunday and Monday, it's, uh, it's gonna add up. But I do think the Mets can get it done. All right.
33:40
Jason Weingarten right here. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it. Kelly and I coming back. Thank you. Thanks. We'll get Kelly back here on a Numbers Game next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
Don't forget, coming up at the top of the hour after a Numbers Game, Money Moves with Stormy Bonatony. Stormy got in today Matt Brown. Do you know who Matt Brown is? Yeah.
34:06
He's, like, creep hanging outside the window right now. Who's, like, hovering over your shoulder? Yeah. [laughs] What a creep. Total creep. Stormy and Matt. Should be a great two hours on Money Moves.
34:14
Then after that, Prop Points with John Hanson for an hour, and then Make It Rain with Adam Shine. Your VSiN schedule coming up after a Numbers Game right here. VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:25
Uh, we got tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Again, best listeners in the game. This is from, uh, 3jackh3131. "Take a poll.
34:33
How many loyal listeners caught the on air muffled snort/chuckle after Borchardt dropped the [laughs] hit it from the front and back comment? What's next on the show, Side To Side by Ariana Grande?
34:44
Are the request lines open?" You wanna peel the ba- peel back the curtain even more on that? [laughs] I, I don't know how many times I've been concerned about Gil losing it on air. I was concerned. I almost lost it.
34:54
I had to do the full turn away, not even the, like, so we couldn't catch, like- [laughs]... we couldn't make eye contact 'cause I was about to lose it. It's only funny 'cause it's Borchardt. Yes.
35:03
It's the last guy you would expect to do [laughs] or say anything like that. Uh, and, and the fact that he even knows who Ray J is, right? I know. [laughs] Uh, Jamie Leyva, or it could be Jaime Leyva. Jaime Leyva.
35:13
Uh, "Did basewinner just say what I think he said, dropping the X-rated Ray J reference? How does the sneaky freaky brother feel about this?" [laughs] I think he's referring to me. Uh, "Inject this show into my veins."
35:23
Oh, man. "Have a great day, gentlemen." You as well, Mr. Budley. [laughs] Uh, and then this is from, I wanna get this right. I don't wanna attri- I wanna attribute it to the right person here.
35:34
This is from That Guy Expert, who says, uh, "I meet with my head coach and analytics staff for two hours every morning on this show between 8:00 to 10:00 mountain time. I'm ready to take on the books. Thanks, staff."
35:47
Thank you, uh, expert, on that. And Manny Davis said, one more. I'm sorry, I lied. "I appreciate how transparent Aaron was about how he votes.
35:54
It's talked about all the time how MVP is a quarterback award, and that confirms that is how voters view it as well." Yeah, those are the nuggets that I think are great with Aaron. Mm-hmm. Let's not fool ourselves.
36:05
MVP's a quarterback award. Offensive player of the year is sort of this repository for every other offensive player who's not a quarterback who performs the best.
36:13
Any time we try to talk ourselves out of that, remember, the only times are gonna be if somebody does something ridiculous Who's not a quarterback who could somehow become an MVP, but otherwise, that's how it is.
36:26
The other thing, I thought that Brock Purdy comment was very telling. Well, yeah. That and, I mean, and then we've been wondering about it, Comeback Player of the Year, right? Yeah.
36:33
It was, it was the, the confirmation on Sam Darnold, like, don- well, don't- It's not, no, don't vote on him... don't burn your money away. But you know what?
36:41
He didn't seem like he fully knew what to do with DeMar Hamlin either. Well, I s- I think I sort of sparked that, and he was like, "Oh, that's a good question." Yeah. "I hadn't thought about that."
36:50
I mean, he was lean- Yeah... he, he was leaning to what I said on air last week. Not that I agree with this- Yeah...
36:55
but if you're going by the letter of the law now, it, I don't know that it fully carries over to this season. Are you ready for the Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week? You bet I am.
37:03
Ladies and gentlemen, it's the Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week, presented by Larceny Wheated Bourbon. Lock in a win and seize tonight. Bardstown, Kentucky, 46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely.
37:17
Kelly can drink wisely. I'm not sure if he can think wisely while he's drinking wisely. It's a tough thing. Wow. Yeah. Yeah, that's fair. Maybe you came with Larceny. That's fair. Sometimes.
37:26
Sorry, I didn't mean to disparage you. I think you can do both. [laughs] That was a- [laughs]... that's a fair comment A fair comment. Just a fair comment. Just call 'em like I sees 'em. Yeah.
37:33
Uh, all right, the Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week, I had this as part of my World Series matchups. I got it at 50 to 1 after one day, and I have six remaining, but, and remember, I went crazy on these.
37:43
But the one I like the best, um, and certainly after we- after day one it looks good, um, the Padres and the Tigers was a 50 to 1. It is now 30 to 1. Still, you know, pretty good.
37:56
Again, if you believe that the, the whole Tigers theory again is you get Skubal for one game out of a best of th- in a best of three. You get him for two in a best of five. And by the way, you do get him for two.
38:07
You would get him for game two and game five if necessary, because the schedule sort of plays out. It, it's lengthy enough where he'll be on super-duper good rest on, on both of those.
38:18
Um, so that's the, that's the play on the Tigers. Again, it's a mix and match pitching situation.
38:22
Besides Skubal, they really only have one starter, and the rest of it, like today is just, it's complete patchwork, and that's how they've done as great as they've done.
38:31
Um, and yesterday was a, you know, a great example of that.
38:34
Skubal went six innings, then you had Will Vest, Tyler Holton, who's getting, who's gonna be the opener today, Jason Foley, and then Bo Briski getting that final out against Jason Heyward in dramatic, uh, fashion.
38:44
That, uh, everybody's heart skipped a beat into Detroit and those of us who have the Tigers. So the Tigers-Padres, those are all of mine that are still up.
38:50
But the Tigers-Padres one is 30 to 1, and I feel the same way about the Padres that, that everybody else does.
38:56
The way I would talk about the Padres is they are, along with probably the Phillies, I would say, if you're looking for the most balanced teams in baseball that are still out there, I would say it's the Phillies and the Padres.
39:08
What I mean by that is great lineup. You know, the, the acquisition of Urías at the top of that order was just so awesome. Um, Urías is the sort of modern-day version of Tony Gwynn.
39:20
I'm not saying he's as good as Tony Gwynn, but you get the idea. They're familiar with that kind of player at the top of the lineup. They've got power.
39:26
Um, obviously, the bullpen was a strength of theirs, you know, going in, but they, they shored it up in the off season.
39:32
Michael, uh, and the starters, Michael King, uh, as, as Will Hill would say, former Yankee great Michael King, who came over in the, uh, in the Soto trade, where Michael King was like, "We got the best of this.
39:43
Like, I can't believe the Yankees gave up all this talent." Part of that talent was himself.
39:46
Yesterday, he went seven strong, didn't give up an earned run, five hits, 12 Ks against no walks as the Braves struck out a total of 15 times.
39:54
But then Jason Adam came in and struck out three, uh, struck out the side after that.
39:59
The thing with the Padres on offense, by the way, the, the, the reinforcements in the bullpen, Jason Adam, as I mentioned, Tanner Scott as well, it's just super balanced starting pitching, relievers, and the lineup.
40:10
You could say that about the Phillies. I'm not sure that any other team is strong in all three. I know the Royals had a good September when it came to their bullpen, but generally they're not.
40:20
Um, the real superpower of the Padres, when I bet the Royals for most wins in July, um, their superpower was that they don't strike out. There's one team better at not striking out than the Royals, and that's the Padres.
40:33
The Padres strikeout rate, offensively we're talking now, the lowest in Major League Baseball, 17.6%. So you make contact, good things eventually are gonna happen.
40:43
And so the Padres and the Tigers, my World Series matchup, of the six, I, uh, I'd love it if any of the other five won, too. But of the six, that's the one with current odds that I like the most.
40:51
Yeah, and obviously odds have moved on this- Yeah... from where you had it.
40:55
But it, I mean, keep in mind, for people out there maybe considering betting this, if both these teams advance, this gets a whole lot shorter right away, right? Yes.
41:03
One more win by each of these teams, you're going way shorter than 30 to 1. That's why I want, went crazy before the postseason started, but getting as many of them as I, as I could get.
41:11
Um, Padres-Tigers, 30 to 1 current price, even though I got it a little better than that, is your Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week.
41:18
And if you're feeling lucky, put your money in Larceny Wheated Bourbon where your mouth is.
41:22
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41:32
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41:40
ANG is brought to you by Larceny Bourbon, Bardstown, Kentucky, 46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely. And Kelly's, uh, only comment about this, uh, off air was, "When do I get to drink some of this stuff?"
41:52
That's a- So were you told- Such a tease. We have to have, we have the display bottle here. I need a, I need a sipping bottle.
41:57
See, the, again, the strategy is you drink an imperceptible amount of it every week, and then slow- they won't notice, right?
42:04
It's like the office space thing where they're like, uh, skimming off like, like fractions of pennies.
42:08
Just skim off fractions of the, uh, bottle, and then only like four weeks in will they be like, "Hey, is somebody drinking the bourbon?"
42:14
Yeah, well it's c- it's called, it's called drinking your parents' liquor cabinet when you're, uh, when they're out of town and you're in high school, okay? You just fill it up with a little bit of water.
42:21
You know, you just drink it down, then you fill it up with a little bit of water, and that level never changes.
42:25
Then you don't gotta worry about it Did you have some, uh, do you have some golf you wanted to talk about here? I do have, I do have a few golf bets- Yeah... this week at the, uh, wonderful Sanderson Farms Championship.
42:33
New long shots pod up, uh, right now. Uh- Let's go long shots...
42:36
two for one, we talked about the Alfred Dunhill Links, or, uh, or Wes intelligently talked about the Alfred Dunhill Links, and Matt and I made stupid jokes, uh, off to the side.
42:45
And then Sanderson Farms Championship, PGA Tour over in Mississippi this week. Um, we are into the fall swing. This is important for some of these golfers on the new schedule. You will only see me betting these lightly.
42:55
Most of these are straight-up birdie fests, and that's what we get, uh, out there this week. If you are looking for statistical profiles, uh, distance off the tee's gonna be big here.
43:05
Uh, they are a little bit narrow fairways. We're playing sh- uh, less than 30 yards on average.
43:09
Uh, so premium on accuracy and distance off the tee is what I really looked at, but then you need guys that can score, uh, on this course.
43:16
It helped me, Gil Alexander, that Keith Mitchell was the short shot, uh, at this event because I could e- uh, it, it made it easier to skip by him. I, I, I need a break from Keith. Keith and I- [laughs]
43:26
You do, you do need a break... start- the, the relationship at the beginning of the year was awesome. Yeah. Cashing top 20s. Yeah. The summer it was a little bit rougher.
43:32
We need a break, just a couple months at least, uh, till we get to January. So just three bets for me this week. J.J. Spaun, I, I think he's one of the more, uh, one of the class players in this event, period.
43:41
Recent results, T26 at the ProCore, T3 at the Wyndham, um, T9 going back to the 3M, so he does have some, uh, form here the past couple months. Johnny Vegas just picked up his first win, uh, over the summer, 35 to 1.
43:53
I think he's got a good profile here. And then Charlie Hoffman, coming back, um, from an illness here, uh, this past season, has been starting to pick it up here lately. Perfect kind of fit, game fit for this course.
44:06
Long off the tee, great on approach, can get hot with the birdies. So three, uh, outrights for me this week. All right. Tomorrow, Zach and Crack, Zach Cohen, of course, on, uh, football, maybe some tennis.
44:17
Crack, unscripted. And Kelly will tell his Wanda Sykes story. He and Matt Brown were out, uh, out and about the other night, and, uh, they happened upon the comedienne Wanda Sykes. Comedienne/actress.
44:28
It's not that long of a story, but yeah. [laughs] You're still telling it. Tomorrow on The Numbers Game. Story and Matt are next on Money Moves. Enjoy.
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