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Oct 2, 2025
A Numbers Game | October 2, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | October 2, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:45
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:11
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin alongside. Hey, how we doing?
0:23
Good morning, sir. Good morning. A, uh, a, uh, may, may, may I wish a, a fast, a, a quick Yom Kippur to those who, uh, who keep Yom Kippur today, for those who are, are involved in such a thing.
0:37
Uh, my father would be upset with me for being at work today, but hey, here we are. Citizen of the world before, uh, before the religion takes, takes precedence. That's right. You're, you're a man of the people.
0:46
That's what I am. So is Zach Cohen. [laughs] Was Zach called in advance? "Is Gil gonna be there? 'Cause if Gil's gonna be there, then I'll be there." [laughs] Za- Zach Cohen, the, the, the nicest dude on the planet.
0:55
Nicest, and I'm like- So great... "Just take the day off, man. It's a holiday. Like, it's okay. You don't need to come." "No, no, no, I wanna be there. I wanna be there." If I wasn't there, he wasn't gonna show.
1:02
He wasn't gonna- He wasn't gonna show. Yeah. [laughs] That's great. Zach, part of the Zach and Crack comedy duo. Today Zach will be here as well, uh, with his tennis plays from the Asian swing, men's and women's.
1:12
Um, also some NFL of course from Zach. And then Bill Krackomberger, the other side of that. Unscripted with the Crack man, hour number three today. Looking forward to that as always.
1:22
Always, I always get the text the night before. He's like, "We good for tomorrow? Just in case, just in case I forgot to tell him I was out of town or something." Yep, we're good. All right. There we go.
1:30
Crack's in there. Are we sure? Estamos seguros? A little later, Tim Murray on college football, our most smug weekly guest, I would say, Tim Murray. Oh, okay. Yeah, mm, on a weekly basis.
1:39
Jensen Lewis momentarily talking Major League Baseball playoffs, which, uh, you wanna begin there, you wanna begin with football? Sure. Uh, yes- Let's do baseball. Let's do baseball.
1:46
Yesterday, uh, and we'll talk with Jensen more about this, a quadruple header, all the game twos of the wildcard round, the best of three wildcard rounds. Uh, and they were [laughs]
1:57
i- I think the proper amount of games have gotten to, the proper amount of series have gotten to a game three.
2:01
I didn't wanna see a game three, uh, between the Reds and the Dodgers, uh, also because there's a football game tonight, just from a fan betting s- fan/betting standpoint.
2:10
Dodgers take care of it, uh, two to nothing against the, uh, two to nothing in terms of the series. They blow out the, uh, Reds once again, uh, eight to four.
2:20
But I should say the, the takeaway from the Dodgers once again is, and by the way, uh, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was great, six and two-thirds, zero earned runs, though the, uh, the Reds were spotted two runs early in this game.
2:32
Uh, four hits, nine K's against two walks on 113 pitches. He was great. So was Roki Sasaki, a perfect ninth, uh, with, uh, two strikeouts. That's the Dodgers formula. It's what's in between that's the problem.
2:46
Um, because once again in the eighth inning, this is two games in a row against the Reds. You know, you know how many total pitches the Dodgers threw in the eighth innings combined of these two games? Oh, geez. How many?
2:56
100 pitches. That's incredible. It is incredible. 100 pitches, five earned runs on four hits, seven walks issued in the two combined eighth innings- Yikes... against three K's.
3:09
This is, that's the bugaboo for the Dodgers, but they get the, they dispatch the Reds, and for their efforts now, they're gonna start a best of five against the Phillies on Saturday in Philly.
3:19
It's gonna be Shohei Ohtani against Christopher Sanchez. So that's where the Dodgers are headed. Uh, congratulations to all who, uh, who bet the chalk there.
3:26
The other three series though, we'll do them chronologically, 'cause all the game threes of the remaining series are today. A little bit of a staggered start.
3:32
The first one does not start at 1:00 PM Eastern like it has the last couple days. It will start at 3:00 PM Eastern in Cleveland at Progressive, where the Guardians knot it up against the Tigers.
3:42
It was a one to one game in the eighth where the Guardians exploded to kill all the under bettors for a, uh, for a five run eighth.
3:50
It was, uh, Brian Rocchio, uh, Brian Rocchio off of a Troy Melton with the solo shot to put the Guardians ahead, then a Kwan double, a Daniel Sheehan RBI double made it three to one.
4:00
Then after a Ramirez intentional walk, two batters later off Brent Herder, Bo Naylor three run Jimmy Jack, and the Guardians win it six to one.
4:07
Yeah, I was sitting in a meeting for all of like 20 minutes probably, and all that scoring happened. Yeah. It was like, "Oh, okay, cool." Yeah. "Guess we're onto game three." Right.
4:14
We're onto game three of those Tigers today. Yeah, so today it's Flaherty against, uh, Ciccone or C- Slade? Slade Ciccone. What a badass name. Why haven't we been talking about him all year?
4:25
[laughs] We should've been talking about him way more. 'Cause A- Slade Ciccone...'cause Americans call him like Ciccone or s- they botch the last name.
4:32
Anyway, Flaherty, th- this is, again, I, I sort of said this yesterday, which is of all the postseason series as a whole taken in Major League Baseball, beyond the Yankee starters and the Dodger starters with apolo- and, and Skubal and, and Crochet obviously, beyond that, with apologies to, like, the, uh, Pavettas of the world, it's about the worst group of starters in anything.
4:53
So today you have three game threes, and these are the match-ups. First, it starts with Flaherty and Ciccone. Flaherty's got a 4.64 ERA. His advanced stats are a little better than that.
5:03
Uh, 3.85 fielding independent, 3.69 xFIP. And the reason for the advanced stats being better is he has a really high strand rate, 80.9%. He has a really high, um, home run to fly ball rate, 15.5%.
5:17
But the, the K rate is good, 27 point, uh, 6%. Uh, walk rate's a little high, 8.7%. So Flaherty is kind of dicey, if you will. And Ciccone's, you know, 4.30 ERA. His K rate is not nearly as good. It's 20%.
5:32
The walk rate is better than Flaherty's at 5.9%. Anyway, what you have is a couple kind of meh starters- We're screwed... in a, w- what, the, are our Tigers bet? Yeah. No, we're not. Slade Ciccone, man.
5:43
[sighs] [laughs] That's Kelly's handicap. We're screwed. That's it. It's over. They shouldn't even play. They shouldn't even play the game. Shouldn't even play. Our Tigers pre-flop has bet on the series.
5:52
Th- they're gonna have to run out Skubal just to count, uh, counter this. So I didn't, I didn't have a bet in the Reds-Dodgers series, but I have three going today.
5:59
I have the Tigers series, I have the, um, Padres series price, and then I have the Yankees adjusted after game one. So by the way, Guardians a slight favorite in Game 3 today, minus 118, total at seven.
6:12
As far as the Padres and the Cubs, which is next chronologically today, Game 3, uh, back at Wrigley. Padres got off the schneid in the series yesterday. A, uh, a three to nothing win.
6:22
The big blast was a, uh, Manny Machado two-run shot in the fifth, uh, of this ball game. Put the Padres up three to nothing. That was the eventual final.
6:32
The real story of this game was Dylan Cease, Adrian Morejon, Mason Miller, and Robert Suárez pitching a combined four-hit shutout for the Padres.
6:40
11 K's against one walk, and Miller faced six batters, the first five of whom he K'd. That's why they got him. Wow. That's why they got him at the, uh, at the trade deadline.
6:52
By the way, he, uh, he tickled the, the strings to the balloon of 104 and a half miles per hour yesterday on a pitch. That's pretty fast. Yeah, it's pretty good.
7:01
He's the guy, remember last year, I don't know if you remember this, when he was pitch- it was at, last year or the year bef- w- well, last year when he was pitching for the A's, whatever is it now?
7:09
The years run into each other. It was last year, this year, or the year bef- I can't even remember. Uh, if there's one thing I remember well, Gil, it's pitchers from the A's, okay? [laughs] Yeah, I do.
7:15
But when he pitched, remember, to Judge, and he, and he wiped him o- and, and Judge, like, looked at him and was like... I w- I was saying it on air.
7:21
I was like, and Judge looked at Mason Miller and was like, "Who is this guy?" [laughs] Um, r- while he was getting K'd. So Game 3 today between the Padres and the Cubs, the decider. One of these teams is done-zo.
7:32
It's Yu Darvish against Jameson Taillon. Taillon is what he is, just like Flaherty and Schone- t- Tai- Taillon 3.68 ERA, but the advanced stats are about a run worse, maybe not quite a run worse.
7:45
But he's got a 4.66 fielding independent, 4.34 xFIP.
7:48
Again, for those, uh, u- uninitiated, those are nice because they're on the same kind of scale of the ERA, where you know instinctively from your baseball card stats and a lifetime of watching baseball, you kinda get what a, what a, you know, 2.00 ERA is elite, 3.00 is very good, 4.00 is very average, 5.00 you're not very good at baseball.
8:09
Mm-hmm. Th- and then the advanced stats kind of work on that same scale.
8:13
But the reason for his advanced stats being worse, Taillon's a very fortunate 232 batting average on balls in play, an 80.3% strand rate, 18.9% K rate, doesn't leave a whole bunch of margin for error. He is what he is.
8:26
Yu Darvish is the enigma in this one. By the way, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Right now we're showing Cubbies at minus 108 with a total at seven and a half. Yu Darvish, only 72 innings pitched this year.
8:39
He has a 5.38 ERA. That's not very good. The advanced stats are way better. Well, not the fielding independent, but the expected ERA is way better, couple runs better. Um, the xFIP is 4.15. Here's the deal with him.
8:54
He has a very low strand rate, so you would've expected that to be better. In other words, left on base, right? Only 65.8% strand rate, so a lot of guys on base have scored.
9:06
Really high home run to fly ball rate at 16.1%. To put it in just simple math terms, he's given up 1.7 homers per nine innings pitched, Darvish has this year. But in only 15 games started.
9:19
He only has three quality starts this year, Yu Darvish. So that's the thing. Which Darvish do you get today? Do you get the guy who in, and by the way, in those three quality starts, he was really good.
9:32
But in the other 12, again, meh. Lifetime K rate is 28.4%. This year, only 23%. That's really the biggest difference with Yu Darvish. And then Game 3 today, which again, if you missed it yesterday,
9:49
the Yankees get off the schneid. They were up two to nothing against the Red Sox. Red Sox tied 'em. They went up three to two.
9:56
Red Sox tied 'em, and then somehow in the seventh, how Nate Eaton didn't score on a Masataka Yoshida single I will never know.
10:04
I don't know if the third base coach held him up, and there was just enough of hesitation that he stopped on third. But the Red Sox really should've taken a lead there, but instead it remained tied.
10:13
Yankees got out of it. And then bottom eight, Jazz Chisholm scoring from first on an Austin Wells single, and that held up for the Yankees, even though, uh- That was awesome...
10:21
Judge catching the last out on the warning track. Four to three Yankees, and today it's K- listen, and this is just, this exemplifies what I'm talking about about the pitchers.
10:31
Connolly Early versus Cam Schlittler in a decider. Red Sox and Yankees legends, Gil. Who could forget, uh, [laughs] who could forget... What's your favorite moment in these two guys' pitching careers?
10:43
Nobody knew who these guys were in May. Um, Early, by the way, Con- Connolly Early of the Red Sox, he's the f- he will be the first pitcher to ever start a,
10:55
e- e- ever start a deciding postseason game within 30 days of his Major League Baseball debut. Yeah. That's how historic this is with Connor Early ear- Connolly Early today. No jitters, I'm sure.
11:06
Only 19 and a third innings pitched this year, only four starts, two good, two meh. Um, never more than five and a third, by the way. There's the Opta stats stat right there.
11:15
First pitcher ever to start a winner-take-all postseason game within 30 days of his Major League Baseball debut. So really small sample size.
11:21
I mean, the K rate has been great in that small sample size, but it's still a small, meaningless sample size. We'll see. And then Schlittler's been pretty good.
11:29
2.96 ERA, but the advanced stat's about a run worse than that. Um, 84.5% strand rate is the reason for that. But a good K rate at 27.6%. His bugaboo, a high walk rate.
11:41
So slight advantage there to the Yankees, and that is reflected in the betting line. Coming back, Jensen Lewis's thoughts on all next on A Numbers Game.
11:50
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:05
Right now you can check out the NFL and college football betting hubs for breakdowns of every game. Niners-Rams tonight, which we'll get to. Sam Houston versus New Mexico State picks and previews.
12:14
Steve Macafee's College Football Week 6 picks. And later today you can check out the Breeders' Futurity and American Pharoah Stakes picks. How about that? Futurity, Kelly. Futurity Futurity. American Pharaoh stakes.
12:27
Zach Cohen's Shanghai Masters Tennis Predictions, Bank of America Roval 400 preview. Right now you can sign up for as little as $9.99 to access all the Beason Pro articles.
12:35
Just head to beason.com/subscribe to sign up today. We get tweets at Beat of the Book. I just wanna, I just wanna mention this one. Norman Vegas, shout out to you, 'cause I mentioned it was Yom Kippur today. Mm-hmm.
12:46
Um, the Jewish day of atonement, Kelly. Mm-hmm. You know, it's a very efficient religion. One day we fast and, and repent for all of our sins from the previous 365 days.
12:56
Uh, Norman Vegas, the s- the sports betting tie into this, in addition to Todd Wishnev recounting the famous Yom Kippur massacre on the Megapod today. By the way, it didn't really happen. It's a, it's a betting story.
13:06
That's what he calls it. How much time do you have to leave for that every year? Oh, at least four or five days. [laughs] Poor Cleve TA's like, "Okay, I'll listen." Uh, Norm, it's such a great...
13:14
It's the best sports betting story, period, ever on the Megapod. Is that who you have on today? Cleve? Yeah, Cleve. Okay. Cleve TA- Nice... on the Megapod today. Very nice.
13:22
But Norman Vegas reminds us, he says, 60 years ago, 60, exactly 60, 1965, 60 years ago this week, Sandy Koufax would not pitch game one of the World Series for the Dodgers because it fell on Yom Kippur.
13:34
Don Drysdale started, lost game one, prompting him to tell manager Walter Alston, quote, "I guess you wish I was Jewish, too." [laughs] He, he got shelled. He had to be removed in the, by the third inning.
13:45
[laughs] Uh, Koufax went on to lose game two in Minnesota, so the Dodgers were down two to nothing, but then Koufax came back, won game five, won game seven, World Series MVP, and a man of principle. There's your story.
13:58
Jensen Lewis is a man of principle, too. Maybe not quite in the same way, but he joins us now, uh, k- kind enough to extend past the By the Books, uh, hour or three hours that he does with Dave Ross every morning.
14:09
He's joined us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line, not quite in Progressive field, but just outside of Progressive field somewhere in Ohio. How you doing, Jensen? I'm doing great, buddy.
14:18
Uh, right down the road here, and, uh, boy, uh, if, if we could ever get a night game for these, uh, winner take alls, uh, in the wildcard round, that'd be great.
14:26
I know, uh, Major League Baseball doesn't think too highly of us Midwesterners, but, uh, y- I think we're, I think we're for a dandy here for the first of three- [laughs]... winner take alls, my friend.
14:33
It's gonna be a lot of fun. Jensen, we're trying to gauge if you're serious about this. So we've got- Oh, he's angry. He's furious...
14:38
we've, we've gotten a lot of jokes about this of like, oh, the, the Guardians get the Houston Texans Saturday morning wildcard spot.
14:44
[laughs] You are legitimately mad about this, that you didn't get top billing over the Dodgers, Yankees, or Padres, Cubs? Come on. I, I would say no.
14:52
I, and I, again, in the Lewis Ross administration, we reach across the aisle. We're all about bipartisanship. I don't understand how we can't have...
15:00
You know, if you want the Guardians and the Tigers in the 1:00 on day one, can't we get a 3:00? You can flip, you know, the Cubs and the Padres to a noon central start.
15:09
Like, I don't think there's anything wrong with that. Just, just give us a little bit more a time for people. We got, we're the Rust Belt, man. We got people that actually have to go to work, have to do a job, man.
15:17
[laughs] You can't play hooky. So I'm just asking to help our Midwestern people that wanna try and make it to the game. You know, you take your kids out of school for a half day. It's all we're asking for, Rob.
15:28
Glad Rod Manfred's gonna be gone here in a couple of years. [laughs] You know, I'm gonna allow it. The, the Cubs, Padres- You're gonna allow it?... I'm gonna allow. But just don't touch the Yankees Red Sox, Jensen.
15:36
You know, come on. Yeah. That's fine. I think, I think Jensen feels that people who live by the beach do not work. I think that's what I got out of that. [laughs] I think that's what I got out of it.
15:44
All right, Cleveland, Cleveland and Detroit, game three. Speaking of your Guardians here, uh, game three, I was just talking about this in the last segment.
15:50
Flaherty against Chacón, uh, in a, you know, not what you'd really characterize as a, uh, a pitching matchup you would script for a deciding game, but that's where we are.
16:01
Guardian's a slight favorite, minus 118, total seven. I mean, the offense has just been so sparse. Does it wake up today? That's where I looked at some of the splits and, and tried to take my heart out of it, Gil.
16:13
Uh, seeing here on DraftKings, uh, right around 47% of the bets, 75% of the handle, uh, and, and feel that with, uh, you're gonna have a lot of guys on both sides that are potentially gonna pl- uh, gonna pitch three days in a row.
16:26
And I still cannot figure out why Stephen Vogt ran Ca- uh, uh, you know, Cade Smith back out there with a five-run lead. You clean up the eighth inning. That's what you needed to do.
16:36
But there's no reason why a big league reliever cannot get three outs before giving up five runs. Otherwise, you've no, you don't deserve to win that game anyway.
16:44
So that to me is focal point number one, 'cause if I wanted to extend one reliever on the Cleveland side, I would've wanted Cade Smith available for multiple innings today. Yes. I don't know if he can go longer than one.
16:56
And, and I think that is a huge, huge advantage knowing that Detroit has a, a rested Will Vest who can go two innings today. Finnegan didn't throw a lot of pitches yesterday, so I'm with you, Gil.
17:07
I do think both offenses wake up today. I'm just fascinated to see when AJ Hinch and Stephen Vogt pull the plug on their starters. I was looking at some of the outs recorded today for the, the scheduled starters.
17:18
I don't know if I've seen nine and a halves like this. I know Darvish is nine and a half. Taillon's got, like, 11 and a half. I mean, it, welcome to postseason baseball in 2025. Yeah, Cade Smith threw 31 pitches,
17:30
many of which were up five runs, right, yesterday? Yeah. So that was very curious.
17:35
Which brings me to the Padres and the Cubs, 'cause I think this is, you know, again, I, I sort of said earlier, it's like which, which Yu Darvish shows up in this ball game?
17:43
And then with that, uh, both Morejon and Miller threw a combined 60 pitches, one through 33, one through 27, I believe yesterday. Are they available in your opinion for the Padres today? Yeah, they'll be available.
17:58
And, and I'm anxious that the first guy out, you know, Jeremiah Estrada did not throw yesterday. And so from a length and a rest perspective, he's the obvious can give you multiple innings.
18:09
Does that mean he's the first guy out? I, I think it really depends on where you are in the lineup and the spot.
18:16
I- I, I, I think it's the Cubs is the side for me here, Gil, and, and I would not be surprised if we get offense from both sides here. So I do lean the over, uh, in this game.
18:26
Y- you would, you would believe that with where the Padres got, and this is why they made the moves a- at the deadline that AJ Preller did.
18:33
Uh, Mason Miller is reminding me of watching Andrew Miller in 2016 when he just was a knife through butter, uh, in that playoff run for the Cleveland Indians.
18:42
And if you remember, Gil, it was Terry Francona who made the move in game three of the division series, bringing Andrew Miller in at Fenway Park in the fifth inning that changed how bullpens were used in post-seasons from then to what we see now.
18:55
And that's why a lot of managers are not hesitating with the quick hook. Gone are the days of starters going five-plus here in elimination scenarios.
19:03
So if I were to err on the side of a more rested, resourceful bullpen, I think the Cubs have the advantage there. If you get four innings from Jameson Taillon today, Cubs are winning this game. Hmm.
19:14
Uh, it just feels like they, they have much more of an ability to extend some of their leverage guys than maybe what the Padres would with what you had from Maury Hall and Mason Miller yesterday.
19:25
It's so much about the bullpens. It really is. By the way, the g- Kansas City Royals going, you know, a back to front, um, you know, strategy back in the day with, uh, Herrera and, um, forgetting who it was.
19:36
Uh, was it Wilson? Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Yeah. Wade Davis. I... Wade Wilson. I'm thinking about Vikings quarterback. And Holland, right.
19:42
Herrera, Wilson, and Holland, um, also famously, uh, on their way to a World Series victory in the mid-2010s. Uh, l- I'm so glad to have you here 'cause I get to ask you a couple baseball questions.
19:52
One, f- uh, um, uh, w- was Eaton stopped for the Red Sox on the Yoshida single yesterday? Ugh. Um, was he stopped by the third base coach, or did he stop himself? I thought it was the coach, but maybe I'm wrong. Yeah.
20:06
Yeah. And, and, uh, gosh, you, you think about aggressiveness there, especially on the road, Gil, uh, y- you have to make the defense throw you out there. Yes. Like, that, that to me, uh, was an automatic...
20:17
Like, you'll, you'll take the 10% risk, uh, by, by sending the runner there. I mean, you have to make a perfect relay in that spot. So I'm with you.
20:25
Yeah, it was, that was a puzzling thing, uh, seeing Eaton held up there at third base. And then the other one was Davey Roberts in the, uh, Dodgers-Reds game pulled, uh, pulled one of his pitchers, uh, namely...
20:36
Oh, and I don't wanna forget. Shean, yeah. It was Shean. Yeah, he pulled Shean- Yeah... on a one-two count. When was the last time you saw that when it wasn't an injury involved? I don't know if I've seen that.
20:47
Uh, and, and, and again, that's, that's the uniqueness of, of where, you know, bullpen baseball is i- in the postseason.
20:54
So you, again, the other part of that though, Gil, is you have to have guys that you can bring in to do that.
21:00
I mean, we saw even yesterday in the Guardians game, right, Jonathan Rodriguez was announced as the pinch hitter.
21:07
Uh, then it's a right-handed reliever in Finnegan, and then Rodriguez doesn't even see a plate appearance 'cause they pinch hit Daniel Schneeman. So moves and countermoves for you- Yeah...
21:16
uh, you people out there that, that like The Hunger Games. Uh, that- [laughs]... that's kinda where we're at here with these bullpens right now. All right, Yankees-Red Sox today.
21:22
Yankees with Schlitter, a minus 162 favorite over Early. What do you got? I hate to do this to Kelly, but my contrarian dog of the day has to be the Red Sox.
21:33
Uh, I, I feel much better about the under here because I do think you're going to get more swing and miss than maybe people realize. Schlitter's really good. Uh, Yankees have won seven of the last eight starts he's made.
21:45
Uh, Connelly Early, uh, hasn't even gotten his full cup of, uh, Major League coffee yet with [laughs] what? 30 days of service time. But this dude is dynamic. So, uh, Alex Cora pulled Bello early yesterday.
21:55
Won't shock me if he does it again here. Without Whitlock to be able to go multiple innings though, fascinated to see what those middle and leverage innings look like.
22:03
But if I gotta play a side here, probably playing the Red Sox. All right, last thing. We w- have one divisional round established, the Dodgers and the Phillies, the 3-2 in the NL.
22:10
The Dodgers on the series price are a slight favorite. I'm seeing minus 119. Shohei and Sanchez in game one on Saturday. We're, we're showing minus 125 on screen. You think that's priced correctly? Probably.
22:24
And I guess the, the, the other part of it, guys, the off day in between game one and game two, so critical for the Dodgers' side to be able to extend their starters and be able to cherry pick where they wanna use their relievers as well.
22:36
Jensen, best time of year, man. Best time of year. So glad we could have you as a resource to, uh, talk about actual baseball decision-making on the diamond itself. Enjoy your day, man. You're off today. Likewise.
22:47
You're, you're done. [laughs] Jensen Lewis allowed to go home finally. Thanks for staying over. Coming back with football next. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:02
Kelly, what do people have against the first R in the word forward? Why do people say forward? Forward. I don't, I don't know. Now you're gonna have that in my head all day. Forward. Forward.
23:12
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23:20
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23:31
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23:43
Appreciate it.
23:44
Uh, this is from, uh, let's see here, Yeet Ninja, who says, "Kelly sounded like he was channeling Bill Paxton from Aliens when he started commiserating, 'Game over, man,' when referring to Detroit's pitching today."
23:55
[laughs] Bill Paxton. CPT John Prescott, MD, "Instead of a 2-2-1 divisional series, why not have all five games at the higher ranked team's field?" Wow, all five?
24:06
"Also, why not a 2-2-3 in the best of seven with the home team getting five out of the seven games at home? Better team should get a bigger advantage than one more game at home," he says. That's interesting.
24:16
It's an out of, out of the box thinking, one would say. Buddhist man Ready for it. Buddhist man waking up this morning.
24:22
Me patiently waiting for the annual retelling of the Yom Kippur massacre story later today on the Megapod. He's got Gad Williams be- on there.
24:29
Uh, Jason Stark, the adoption of ABS challenge system, the, uh, automatic balls and strikes c- challenge system, is a great first step, but it should just be used on every pitch and a speaker call out the result.
24:38
Correct me if I'm wrong, Gil, but that's what I recall happening in tennis. First it was a challenge system, then it just, uh, took over completely. No reason to have any human error in ball/strike calls.
24:47
Have the home plate umpire for fouls and plays at the plate, period. That is exactly how it started in tennis. It was a challenge system.
24:54
So are all the- In, in fact, Roger Federer had one go against him early on- [laughs] Right... in the early days. Remember you telling me. And he asked the ump, "Can we just turn this thing off?"
25:02
[laughs] So- So what's the setup gonna be for umpires next year? Have they, have they gotten into those details yet? I don't know if I have the details.
25:10
The only, the only detail that, like, raises an eyebrow is it can't come from the dugout. It has to be the pitcher, the catcher, or the batter- Right... which is an odd little quirk.
25:20
Uh, James N-T-E-I-J-89, he says, "I'd like to point out that Sporer said you didn't even have to s- try to see how the Reds could upset the Dodgers. LA the only team to win two to nothing. Go Dodgers." Yeah.
25:31
He, he, I don't think Sporer was, uh, alone in that, uh, opinion. We love Paulie, but that was a, a commonly held one. This is from, uh, A-S-N-F-0520.
25:40
"Early and Schlittler," today's m- [laughs] today's pitching matchup, "Early and Schlittler could easily be the Paulie Howard replacement for Lundy Law. Connolly's our guy. Go get 'em, Con."
25:49
[laughs] You know that commercial that Paulie does? [laughs] Yeah. Early and Schlittler.
25:53
Ben McGovern, "For those who that bet the Rams minus three and a half," that'd be me, "should we try to middle the game with a bet on San Francisco plus nine?"
26:01
We, we are, we are not gonna go another week this year with two NFL games, this one and the Ravens game, where the lines have moved this much. Like, it's unlikely to happen again- That is a good call, yeah...
26:12
for the entire, for the entire season. It's just amazing. You add up all those points, I mean, jeez, what, what are we talking, 10 and, like, six and a half? Yeah. Like, 16, 17 points combined? Whoo.
26:22
To answer your question, uh, I am not. I'm just riding with my minus three and a half. Um, Matthew Mayb- Yeah, you got the best of it. I don't, I don't know why there would be any reason to rush to that.
26:32
Matthew Mayberry, "The third base coach was waving him home, and Eaton had his head down and stopped. It was on Eaton, not the base coach." You know, I kept looking for that. I didn't see that. Hmm.
26:41
But, but I'll take your word for it. Big Kahuna, Yom Kippur story, "Sean Green not playing for the Dodgers and caught heat. Ironically, I ran into his parents in Vegas. Mom asked my opinion.
26:51
I stated, 'I think he should take the day off if that's what he believes.' She was pleased. The dad looks at me and says, 'Roll the dice.'" [laughs] That's Sean Green's parents- Roll the dice... firsthand story.
27:01
By the way, the, uh, Sandy Koufax one in 1965, the Dodgers owner, Walter O'Malley, uh, said, and I guess this is how they talked this way at that time, Kelly, he goes, quote, "I won't let Sandy pitch on Yom Kippur under any circumstances.
27:13
I can't let the boy do that to himself." And then the next breath, he was like, "Could you ask the Pope what he can do about rain?" [laughs] That's great. Um, all right, let's talk football tonight.
27:23
Speaking of the Rams and the Niners, the Rams up to a nine-point favorite, and of course, the headline here, no Brock Purdy, no Ricky Pearsall, uh, no Juwan Jennings. It's just a, it's a MASH unit.
27:38
By the way, uh, throw in for good measure if you'd like, no Jordan Watkins also at wide receiver. So the offense just decimated. I mean, they're gonna have...
27:45
It's a, it's a Mac Jones game, and Mac Jones from the skill position players is gonna have to rely on Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Juszczyk, the, uh, tight end tandem of Tonjes and Farrell, little Kendrick Bourne and Sky Moore from the outside.
27:58
Yeah. Is that a... DeMarcus Robinson. MVS maybe. Is he, is he available? I don't even know if he's available.
28:04
Um, so that's where the r- that's why this has gone up to nine more than any other reason, even though I, on guessing lines Monday, I thought minus three and a half was too low, and it was minus five and a half within a couple hours, and then we got all the news.
28:18
So this is the three and a half points since then, since the five and a half. Uh, just a couple things about this game.
28:24
One, I talked a little bit about this yesterday, Kelly, which is remember with, with trends, one of the reasons why we don't do a lot of them here on the show is because you'll find that people cite trends, and then as soon as the trends aren't really the narrative that folks want or aren't really, like, ooh, interesting content,
28:42
no one ever talks about them again. So remember, oh, Shanahan owns McVay. Eh, it's 10 to 6 after the Rams swept the Niners last year.
28:52
Um, not impressively, by the way, but they did sweep them, and the only time they've ever met in the playoffs, McVay won on the way to the Rams' Super Bowl title. So that's not a thing in my opinion.
29:03
I also caught a couple, uh, a couple yesterday about how, how bad he is as a big dog. And you're like, all right, well, like, that just usually- Shanahan? Yeah. Oh.
29:10
It just, like, means he's got bad teams usually, so yeah, it's tough. Well, it's a big, he's a big dog for a reason. Yeah. Um, the Rams have won. They, the, the Rams beat Houston at home.
29:20
They beat at, uh, they beat Tennessee on the road. They should have won at Philly but lost. They probably should have lost against the Colts but won. That's the Rams' season so far.
29:30
The Niners, if you want to do the autopsy, here's the real issue, and this is before the MASH unit injury report today. This is, so remember, Purdy played games one and four so far. Mac Jones played games two and three.
29:43
Uh, first game was the Purdy-led win at Seattle when he threw the ball to Tonjes in the, in the end zone, Tonjes in the end zone within the last two minutes of the game, and Tonjes somehow made the catch.
29:56
Looked like it was gonna get picked, and then subsequently, the Seahawks got the ball all the way to the Niners' nine-yard line down 17-13, and then Sam Darnold got sacked and fumbled, and that was the ballgame.
30:09
Game two with Mac Jones, they played, um, New Orleans at New Orleans. Remember how y'all s- a lot of y'all think about New Orleans.
30:20
They won that game 26 to 21, but remember, New Orleans had the ball with a chance to win it late. They got all the way to the Niners' 42-yard line And Rattler got sacked and fumbled, and that was the end of that game.
30:32
So another one-score win by the, uh, Niners, held on to by their defense. Game three, the Niners won 16 to 15 against the Cardinals on a at-the-gun kick by Pinheiro, at-the-gun, gun-winning, game-winning field goal.
30:48
And then this past week, they finally lose to the Jaguars, also a one-score game, but remember, that's the game that we've talked about all week. The Jaguars made no less than five mental errors.
30:57
They were like, "Here, take the newspaper," to the, to the, uh, 49ers. And the 49ers couldn't take it from them. And that was a, uh, Brock Purdy game.
31:04
By the way, I just want to say this from a macro perspective beyond this game between the Rams and the Niners. Do we kinda think the Niners screwed up here with Brock Purdy?
31:11
'Cause remember when I was talking about that game against the Jaguars last week, I was saying how if you watched it, Purdy airmailed at least five throws. So he... I don't think he can plant on that toe.
31:25
He's not playing today. But I feel like the Niners might have messed up. What do you mean screwed up, though? Like, it- Like-... rushed him back? Yes. Like, he should not have played at all.
31:32
Or, or like you shouldn't pay the guy. [laughs] No, no, no. I mean, he shouldn't have played. Okay. I don't think he was ready to play. So- Well, a- a- I mean, that, if, if that's the case- Yeah...
31:41
early in the season, that's a big mistake. Yeah, I, I feel like it is. Now, he... So what's the path for the Niners? If, if you're like, "Okay, but how do the Niners win or at the very least cover this game?"
31:53
It's probably Robert Saleh's defense, right? Mm-hmm. We just mentioned the two big fumbles at the end of the first two games. You can't count on that, but the Niners haven't let any team score more than 26 on them,
32:04
and they have not given up more than 325 yard, total yards in a game yet. So that's the path, right? A big defensive performance- Yeah...
32:13
that does produce a couple turnovers, and then somehow the, what's left of the offense does enough. That's a tough s- that's a tough script, right? No, I mean, that, that's it, though. Yeah. I mean, you nailed it.
32:26
It, it's, it's M- Heavy McCaffrey and, and somehow that's successful, right? And they're able to run the clock a little bit. Um, I don't think...
32:32
And I don't think the Rams are gonna be, like, that Rams defensive front is solid. Uh, they're gonna w- wanna get the running game going as well. I, I kinda lean to the under in this game. I could see that playing out.
32:42
E- even if the Ra- you know, even if the Rams do win, um, it would definitely be a lean to the under, and there's under money coming in right now. I've said this before, I'll say it again as far as survivor is concerned.
32:51
Again, I have six entries. Two, I believe, will be on the Rams. Think I'm us- I'm using one. I'm using one, Gil. One, o- one or two I got two left. Two left. Yeah, I'm using one. Yeah. I think this is...
33:01
And this is, again, the biggest thing with survivor. Uh, it's the case every year, but I feel like it's more pronounced this year in the short going than ever, which is any notion of scripting this long term.
33:14
Like, the Rams were not... Forget that they, before the season, you would never have looked at this game and thought- Right... "Oh, Rams." Two- But that's more of a Niners thing, right?
33:21
Two, two weeks ago you wouldn't have thought that. Last week you wouldn't have thought that, right? Y- Monday morning you wouldn't have thought that. Mm-hmm. When I, when I- Mm-hmm...
33:28
you know, when I made the three and a half bet. But now, I'm not really sure you should avoid it. I think it's almost like a, a have-to pick if you have multiple entries.
33:38
If you don't, if you have one, then I could see you going a different direction, which, uh, we got into earlier in the week. Uh, we'll come back. Tim Murray on college football.
33:45
All his thoughts next on a Numbers Game, at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:06
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34:15
You'll get AI-driven projections for quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs across the most popular prop categories compared directly to current DraftKings lines to highlight value.
34:24
Sort by player, game, or stat, and track how projections shift throughout the week with injury updates and team trends. VSiN Pro subscribers can see them now at vsin.com/props. That's V-S-I-N.com/props.
34:37
A little AI in your betting arsenal right there at vsin.com/props. We get tweets at Betting The Book, always appreciate it. This is from, uh, GV, New Jersey to New York.
34:47
He says, quote, "It's the best sports betting story ever," dot, dot, dot, "On the Megapod. Great catch there, Gil, accounting for many stories by Chrissy, your mishpocha, on guessing lines." Very true. Very true.
34:58
Think Chrissy's his own category of great stories, though. These guys catch everything. I didn't even notice- They catch everything... Gil do that earlier. Yep, I did.
35:05
Uh, 'cause Chrissy's, Chris is, are his own category from his perspective behind the desk, whereas Todd's is just the, from the bettor's perspective. Yes. Yes.
35:14
Ryan Thompson, "The ABS system next year," oh, thank you for the clarification here, Ryan, "The ABS system next year will be the same as it was in spring of '25 and what has been used in AAA the past few years.
35:23
If a pitch is challenged, the umpire will announce it, and they will play a graphic with the zone and pitch location on the scoreboard." There's your answer, Kelly. Oh, good. Thank God.
35:32
It always needs to be accompanied by a, a cool graphic with just like- Gotta have a graphic... just like the NFL preseason. Zoom in down onto the line.
35:39
Well, just like tennis with a gr- with a ball, like, you know, and they can, i- if it's really, really close, they have to zoom in more. How did the NFL try to copy that and make it worse? Like, they have the NFL money.
35:47
Well, it's- Why does it look so cheesy? I just, if Scott Hanson, if, if he once again, like, goes on this thing, "Oh, brand-new innovative technology," I'll lose my nu- [laughs]... lose my mind.
35:56
Mikey P, "Gil, I'm curious, let's say you had minus two and a half in pocket on the Rams. Would you consider a middle then since you're below the key number of three?"
36:04
I'd certainly consider it more, but you know, the notion of middle, this is what... We, we fill content with a lot of, you know, theoretical, but when you're in the moment betting, right, and you have a ticket,
36:17
a lot of people are middlers by nature Not 'cause I hate you. Um, a lot of people are sort of like, "No, I got the best of it. I'm just gonna roll with it."
36:24
So I don't n- you know, for me, I'm more of the latter than I am a middler by nature. But yes, to answer your question, if it's below the three, much more of a possibility. Mm-hmm. Are you a middler by nature?
36:33
You're Kelly- Middle and middler... at one time you were Kelly Middlin' Bilney. Yeah, but it was always live. That was always live bet. Yeah. Right? Yeah.
36:38
So it's, you might, whatever you got your pre-game bet, a- for me, right? This is pre-game bet. You've got the best of it. This is what it, this is what we talk about all the time.
36:45
What is, what's changed with your bet really? Yeah. You know, the only things that have changed is your bet looks a lot better than it did a few days ago.
36:51
So for me personally, it'd be sitting tight, and you don't know what could happen in the game. You don't. You don't. Right? Some, it, some happens in the game, Stafford goes down or something, fine.
36:58
Then you've got an opportunity to jump in and buy off your position or try to middle something. Nothing middling about this guy.
37:04
He is the host of, uh, not only VSIN Primetime, but the College Football Tailgate Show and the College Football Sports Betting podcast. Tim Murray joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
37:12
You can follow him on Twitter, @One, that's the number one, Tim Murray. Tim, good morning, sir. What's up, gentlemen? Yeah, a quick clarification on the, uh, I went to a couple AAA games this year.
37:23
This is actually a AAA hat. Ooh. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders in PA. It is, uh, the, the system, the replay system is incredible. It is exactly like tennis, Gil. It's very fast. It's very efficient.
37:37
The player just looks at challenge. They go up to the board. It takes max 20 seconds. It's, uh, very efficient, and I'm looking forward to it being in MLB this next year.
37:47
I always think about people like Earl Weaver, the famous Baltimore Orioles manager- [laughs]... who was famous for arguing with the umps and getting in umps' faces. He would lose his mind the opposite.
37:56
He'd be like, "What, uh, let me know if I need to get mad at somebody." [laughs] Like, he, this would drive him nuts 'cause he wouldn't be able to have that outlet.
38:03
Um, but this is all in the name of progress, and I'm glad we're, I'm glad we're moving along with it. Uh, college football, your bread and butter, Tim.
38:10
Because Kelly is an FSU graduate, I wanna start every college football segment with this this week. [laughs] Miami and FSU, what are your thoughts on this ballgame?
38:19
Yeah, I know that our good friend, uh, The Bear is riding with Miami. And, uh, my, my initial inclination always is to look at the dog and make a case for the dog. I have not bet this game.
38:30
I'll, I'll be up front right now. Uh, but it actually probably would be Miami or pass. Uh, I loved the spot last week for Virginia against Florida State.
38:39
I didn't know they'd win the game outright, obviously kind of a, a crazy finish there with the field storming and all of that.
38:44
But look, Florida State vastly improved from a year ago, but the way Miami continues to play from a defensive standpoint, how efficient they've been offensively, um, you know, this, I, I just, I find it hard to envision Florida State winning this game.
39:00
But that all being said, it's not a big spread. They're at home. Uh, they played exceptionally well there, when you think back to week one.
39:08
And unlike LSU, for example, whose week one win continues to lose luster every week over Clemson, the Florida State win certainly looks a lot better based off of what we saw from Alabama last week down between the hedges against Georgia.
39:24
But look, Miami, I think right now I would probably have them as the third-best team in college football, just, you know, based off of what we've seen.
39:34
I think you gotta give the edge to Ohio State and Oregon slightly over Miami, but uh, you know, I can't wait to watch this game.
39:41
I, I, I love the fact that this rivalry, which was so enormous during the '90s, we had the, you know, the missed field goals galore, uh, in, in closing seconds there.
39:50
So, uh, I think in a week that is l- maybe lacking a little bit of juice- Yeah... uh, this game is, is gonna be great.
39:57
And even though Florida State lost last week, I still think it still brings the same punch to the table. So, uh, can't wait to watch it.
40:04
And you know, uh, as you guys were just talking about live betting, certainly live betting is, uh, is a great angle to look at this one for me.
40:11
But, uh, it would probably be Miami or pass, but I have not bet this game yet. Kane's favored by four and a half on the road at The 'Doke, Kelly's, uh, old stomping grounds. W- real quick- Great...
40:20
before we get to your bets, Tim, uh, Alabama, Vanderbilt, I think I'm contractually obligated- Yep... uh, to ask you about this. Can Vandy do it two years in a row? Bama 10 and a half point home favorite.
40:32
Well, Diego Pavia thinks it's gonna be easy. Uh, as long as they do what they're supposed to do. I think the quote was, "If we do that, if we play our game, it won't be close." Wow.
40:42
That is what, uh, Van Wilder, AKA Diego Pavia said- [laughs]... uh, leading into this one. But, uh, look, this is, uh,
40:51
this is where we're at in 2025, and Vanderbilt last year, as you mentioned, pulled off the stunner of all stunners, beating number one Alabama as a 23-point underdog, and now they're at Bryant-Denny, and they're only a 10 and a half point underdog.
41:05
Think about the change we've had from one year to now, and Vanderbilt deserves a ton of credit for that.
41:11
It's not just they have Diego Pavia, who's, you know, 28 going on 40 as their quarterback, but they also have legit players. Like, their, their, their tight end Stowers is gonna be a high draft pick.
41:23
They have talent on this roster. Look, I think Alabama's gonna win this game.
41:29
And I, look, the way I attacked it, I'm not a big moneyline parlay guy, but I do think Alabama, if you wanna throw them in a moneyline parlay, I'd throw them in with Louisville, uh, this week.
41:38
I think Louisville at home against Virginia is a tricky spot for the Wahoos. But I, I, I have a hard time envisioning Alabama losing two years in a row to Vanderbilt. Look, this is a new world for Vanderbilt.
41:50
This is just the second time in school history that they are the College GameDay game. Uh, 2008 they were, uh, hosted College GameDay, and now they're back on it.
42:01
And for Alabama, this will be, I believe, their 61st time [laughs] on College GameDay. Geez. So this is a new world for Vanderbilt. Wow. But you gotta give them a cr- a lot of credit.
42:10
Clark Lea has done a phenomenal job at his alma mater. He's gotten the right pieces to come in. You know, when you take that Vanderbilt job, you're like, "All right, well- Good luck, buddy.
42:20
You'll probably be fired in three years, and then you'll get a payout and you'll go be a coordinator somewhere else. But he's done the James Franklin route, right?
42:27
James Franklin took Vanderbilt and catapulted it to Penn State. We'll see what Clark Lea ultimately does. But look, Alabama for me heading into the year was my national champion.
42:36
It took a big hit week one, obviously, but I think Alabama should take care of business. Vanderbilt, by the way, you look at some of the metrics, guys, they are an elite offense.
42:47
They, their numbers are through the roof right now, but 88th right now in strength of schedule versus Alabama coming in at number four. Alabama wins.
42:55
If I had to play it from a side standpoint, I still would lay it, and I think when we saw it get to nine-and-a-half, guys, that lasted very quickly as you saw folks come right in and whack that back up to 10-and-a-half.
43:07
So, I, I like Alabama here in this spot. Uh, and personally I'll be putting them on a Moneyline parlay with Louisville. All right. And the Tim Murray ATS Best Bet of the Week in college football is?
43:18
Uh, I'm gonna go Cincinnati. Uh, Cincinnati at home against Iowa State. We've seen the market move a, a little bit here in the Bearcats' favor.
43:26
I still think you w- you could either lay one or you could take a palatable Moneyline. Looks like minus 120s are, are readily available. Look, Iowa State has gotten off to a phenomenal start.
43:35
We all remember they opened up the season over in Dublin with that win over Kansas State. But now you're going on the road, and guys, they are down their top two cornerbacks.
43:45
And Brendan Sorsby for Cincinnati, look at some of his numbers. They are through the roof. And, you know, you think back to that week one loss for Cincinnati at Arrowhead, they kinda were self-inflicted wounds.
43:58
This offense is humming right now at Cincinnati. Uh, I would love to see Dante Corleone, uh, the, uh, the big defensive lineman for Cincinnati who's missed two games, play here on Saturday afternoon.
44:10
But I think the Bearcats take care of business here against Iowa State, a team that's a little bit banged up. And I think the Bearcats' offense is gonna be a bit too much for the Cyclones here on Saturday afternoon.
44:21
All right. Tim Murray, everybody. Be sure and College Football Tailgate Show, 9:00 AM Eastern Saturday. You do that solo, Tim? Is that you solo host? Yes, sir. Man.
44:29
And then the College Football, uh, Sports Betting Podcast, uh, Football Betting pod- uh, Podcast drops today, right? Yes, sir. Me and Matt Newmans, we're breaking down the card. All right. Timmy, thank you.
44:40
Appreciate it. Tim Murray, everybody. See you guys. Courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. More football next.
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