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Oct 3, 2025
A Numbers Game | October 3, 2025 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | October 3, 2025 | Hour 3
00:00
44:49
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSIN.
0:09
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's the Numbers Game. Gil Alexander. Kelly's behind the glass.
0:21
Always appreciate y'all's feedback. Uh, just wanna read a couple here before we get to, uh, Stevie Fezzik. "3 Jack, age 3131. Gil, I'm trying to find Finkelstein on DraftKings, [laughs] but to no avail.
0:31
Was McVay wearing capri pants last night? He wasn't fully dressed and his team wasn't fully ready. Rams money line cost me, but 49ers deserved to win after that gutty performance by Mack." They really did.
0:40
I mean, he was, he was phenomenal. Uh, they deserved to win because of Mack, they did not deserve to win because of Kyle Shanahan running the ball three, three times into the line at his own one, in my opinion.
0:50
Scotty C, "Thank you, Gil, for asking that question of Dr. Bob. I love it, loved the answer, too. Great stuff."
0:56
Yeah, it's always, uh, it's always good to, uh, occasionally circle back and, uh, get Bob's advice for people.
1:03
'Cause there's a lot of people who listen and you don't know what stage of betting they're in, but some people wanna dive into it in a more mathematical sense, and Bob is your guy.
1:10
But that's a great guide for anybody just starting. At the very least, track what you're betting, figure out why you're winning and why you're losing. Um, that's great advice for all.
1:21
Uh, speaking of great advice, time for Fezzik Fridays. Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays.
1:33
With the great Steve Fezzik, only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day, who came with a, uh, the local sports section from the, from the local newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
1:43
Good morning, Steve. How are you? I delivered that from Jackpot's Coffee Shop. I did not pay for it. You did not pay for it? No. [laughs] You stole it.
1:50
What, uh, to what extent do you read local newspaper sports sections these days? Y- I never do, and you know what's interesting, apparently no one else does either, because it's a shell of, of its former self.
2:01
It used to be on Friday, like I'm really old, so like 20 years ago, you know, you'd have all these handicapping challenges and articles, and on Monday they'd have all the box scores from the NFL, you know, all in one place, and I'd go to, again, and, the Egg & I, and I would just go through and pore through all the box scores.
2:18
Different world now. What was the last time, what was the last year that you had a local newspaper delivered to your front stoop? Like three years ago. Yeah. You had a newspaper up until three years ago? Yeah.
2:29
I liked, I liked it, but it just became so much work. It's like, you know, when you get lazy and old and you're like, "Ugh"? Oh.
2:33
You get the to-do, to-do list: get paper, and g- uh, shower, you know, [laughs] eat breakfast, you know. [laughs] Too many things to do. Too many things to do.
2:42
[laughs] Uh, tell, before we dive into your p- your plays and all your thoughts, don't make us too f- uh, feel too bad about last night, um, what are you doing after the show today? You have to go to Resorts World?
2:51
Yes, and I'm dreading it. So I get something in, in, by email. What's this? What's, what's this? Apparently, good news, I've got money in Resorts World. Who knew? Oh, good. All right?
3:02
And so it's about to go into an abandonment fund, which I don't know if it goes to the Nevada government or something. If I don't go in and claim my dollars, it doesn't automatically get mailed to me.
3:11
Well, for how long have you abandoned it? I don't know, couple years. Okay. But I would think they would just send me a check, right?
3:17
If I, if like I had a bank that I was dormant in, they would just send me a check to my address. Why does it get, go to Nevada? It's a great question. You know? I hope you ask them that question.
3:26
I, I'm, but, but the reason I, I, I dread going there is I love the old Stardust, you know? And it was just... And here it's th- so they put in Resorts World right at the site of the Stardust, and the nostalgia.
3:36
So many people wanna go back and relive that, and they took their sportsbook and they put it in the back of the barbecue. Like, like you people are so, like so unimportant. And, and think about this.
3:46
The back of the barbecue. That's exactly what they did. Think about this. Yeah. If these dummies who, they're, you shoot a cannon in there, don't hit nothing, you know, no customers.
3:54
If they had just had the vision to do what Derek did- Yes... with Circus Swim and, and, and have a tribute to sports and, and, and, and sports books and the old Stardust line, they would've been so successful.
4:07
Right, but that's the difference between corporations and a guy like Derek, right? Derek, Derek lives the sports thing. He loves sports so much. He loves Survivor, he loves all this stuff. This is all from him, right?
4:18
Yes. A corporation doesn't do that. Remember when Derek had the idea of, uh, of Stadium Swim? Remember our buddy Todd Wisniew, right? And, and by the way, I wasn't too far behind him.
4:26
It was like, are people really gonna come to a pool in the middle of July and watch, like, an Astros-Mariners game? And the answer was yes, apparently. Well, there's- But, but it was hard to envision for most.
4:40
That's not the only game that's going on- [laughs] Yes... at, at Stadium Swim. True. But like, I mean, for someone who spent as much time as I did at the Hard Rock growing up here- Yes... right, I couldn't...
4:52
Like, that was my pool, right? So the notion that there would be enough sports fans to make that happen was kind of different for me as well, as big of a sports fan I was.
5:01
I was like, "Yeah, but are there enough people like me to wanna do that?" And apparently the answer is absolutely.
5:06
And, and having a unique experience, and that's why, like I love the Wynn because they have several unique experiences. Bellagio with the fountains and with the conservatory, and like these- Oh, wax about the Wynn.
5:16
I- What do you, what do you love more about it? Uh, you know, by c- I'm already like Resorts World, where am I gonna park? How am I gonna get in? [laughs] It's a hassle. And like I think about Mr.
5:25
Wynn, and like it's so obvious the way he builds his parking garages. Like it's so easy to get in and out. I don't have to park in the subterranean basement, you know? That's right. And I'm, boom, I'm right in.
5:35
I get my three hours free parking. I walk in and there's just, like immediately greeted with, um, all kinds of fly, little Easter egg nice things like a little carousel with the horses going around or the like.
5:48
If you just walk around the property, and so many neat things to do like going to Delilah's- Oh...
5:53
and the like or the pas- the, the, the, the, the Pastels Down or Up, whatever they call the escalator with the Lake of Dreams area. And I'm like, "Boy, did Mr. Wynn just did it so right."
6:02
And these other dummies just did it so wrong, and then they're like, "Why are we all getting fired?" I,
6:08
I, maybe because you could have just copied how to, h- you know, how, how to build a parking garage, and you couldn't even copy it. Um, as you know, I am blessed to do the, uh, Beating the Book Megapod from The Win now.
6:19
Mm-hmm. From the SiriusXM studios at The Win every week, and I walk in there, and it is just, you just feel different. You just do. And Jeremiah Crow, John Goulet, they're running the studio over there. It is pristine.
6:34
It is just, everything about it is first class from the st- beyond the studio obviously as well. The entire hotel just feels that way. Yeah, and by contrast, like, I was just across the street at, at, at the Gold Nugget.
6:45
I was gonna play a little blackjack, and they're like, "Well, you- A little different. Little different... you need a player's card. You need an ID." And it's like, "No, I'm just gonna play for, like, 10 minutes."
6:51
"Oh, well, then you're not allowed to play." Because I'm, like, not 21? What, what is going on with Nevada? [laughs] Uh, all right, let's give the people some picks. Let's start there.
7:00
College football from Stevie Fezzik, beginning with Florida State, Miami. What do you got here? Yeah, so I think this could be a really close game.
7:08
I mean, how many times do we have to see, like, this Miami Florida team, like, underperform when they, w- when everyone starts talking about their being one of the best teams in the country.
7:17
So, um, I really think, uh, this could be a field goal game either way. I will take the value with Florida State.
7:22
I will say this about Miami, and no one else, I, I haven't heard anyone else say this, you know, Miami and Oregon are really good this year. Does that mean that D'Eon Gabriel and, and, and Cam Ward can't play? Oh.
7:33
You know, or they don't matter? Oh, look at you. I have not heard one person say that, but it doesn't look like Miami Florida's having any trouble. You're big on transitive properties of stuff like that, I've noticed.
7:43
Yes. Both, like, from a week to week in college football, I notice you do that as well, let alone year to year, which you just described. Um, so Florida State plus, you, you're still taking plus the four, in other words?
7:54
You need four or more, yes. Okay. Uh, Cincinnati, we, uh, well, let's, let's go, since we have this up on the screen. L- what about tonight, Colorado State and San Diego State, you have a, a play on this game.
8:03
Yeah, well, and when I s- say I have a play, I'm the great- He's the great aggregator. I, I make my own NFL power ratings. I make all my numbers, all right? Mm-hmm.
8:11
But in, when in college football, there aren't enough hours in the day, so I listen to, you know, Dr. Bob, I listen to The Bear, I listen to everybody. I put it all together.
8:19
When there's consensus, and there is on San Diego State, and I did watch San Diego State just murder Cal.
8:24
So I did watch that game, and I don't know why San Diego State's power rating was so low to start the year, but they are not just better, but way better than a Colorado State team that struggled against Northern Colorado.
8:35
Um, minus six is cheap. All right, there's a little Friday Night Football. So there's no baseball tonight. There's no NFL tonight. There you go, college football from Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego.
8:45
Um, Cincinnati tomorrow, first half still available for folks? Yeah, we're gonna do first half minus 125. So I like the Bearcats in the game. You could certainly just bet the Bearcats to win the game.
8:56
However, um, doing stuff with the game and looking into it, I expect Cincinnati, it's a good s- some good situations that they should jump on Iowa State early, and so we're gonna go first half Cincy minus 125.
9:08
All right, this is one of my, uh, one of my favorite Steve Fezzik rants. Has to do with, uh, a mili- with service academy football and too cool for school bettors. What do you, what do you mean by that?
9:20
It's because obviously Army-Navy has gone under for, like, 111 straight years. I believe that's the stat. Like- I'll check on that. Yes, yes. But I believe that's it. And every year- Yeah...
9:29
there's the too cool for school people. It's like, "Whoa." [laughs] "I'm, I ran the numbers, and I, I make this total nine points higher," and there's just been an over-adjustment being made. Yeah. All right.
9:41
Here's the deal. That's true. Just, I know Air Force's defense is god-awful, irrelevant, and here's why. All right? I'm, I'm a chess player, all right? The option is like a, I don't wanna curse, a crappy chess opening.
9:54
Well done. A ridiculously stupid chess opening that you shouldn't be playing, but you surprise someone with it, and they don't see it. You play a gambit, and you can get the edge because they don't know the book moves.
10:04
They don't know the responsibilities. They don't know how to handle it. But it's a crappy opening. And so playing the option against a team that knows how to defend it is, you're doomed.
10:15
You cannot move the ball, even if you have better personnel, and that's what happens when these academies play each other.
10:21
I, I assure you Air Force is gonna be able to slow down Navy if Navy runs the option, no matter, even though Air Force has no defense at all. So we're gonna go under the 52. Under.
10:30
Bit of a contrarian play, in other words, to this. Yeah, because of, b- because it opened 49. Yeah.
10:34
And, and, and all the math geeks had just poured in yards per play and EPA and everything else, gonna say, "Well, this total should be 55." No, it should be 44. Who are, who are you going after? [laughs] Math geeks. Um.
10:44
Fair enough. By, by the way, you said you're a chess player. Who was that guy that used to beat you in chess, though, every time? Um, he didn't beat me every time. Oh, sorry.
10:51
Um, uh, Mark, Mark Palmer beat me every time from Fairmount West. Not Mark Palmer. But, but, but, but not Mark Palmer. No. But, but David Glick was a master. David Glick.
10:58
And he was like, yeah, and he's, like, a, a 2400 international master, but I, I was a state runner-up in the state of Ohio in high school. Wow. And, and he, and, and we played in, in, in the state tournament. I drew him.
11:09
We tied. Wow. But he pounded everyone else, and I wasn't good enough to beat everyone else, so I drew some other games. What would you say was, like, the key to your chess prowess?
11:17
You just could see the board steps ahead of others? I was, I, yeah, I was a romantic chess player. I would point my pieces at my opponent's king and checkmate him.
11:25
What, everyone else was all positional and, like, like, new age wave, like, like, like, just be very m- just maneuver, be very careful, and I was old school. Wow. I could calculate.
11:34
I could out-calculate my opponents in a tactical melee, even if I was worse, and find a way to win. A tactical melee. Not a tactical Donnybrook. [laughs] But a tactical melee.
11:44
More with Steve Fezzik, more of his plays and his thoughts on Thursday Night Football. Oh, boy. Next on A Numbers Game.
11:51
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12:08
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12:23
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12:31
For more information, go to first.com, that's 1ST.com/VSiN. That's 1ST.com/V-S-I-N. What was that Commodore song, Just Be Close To You? Everything in life has a value. Didn't really have much value at all.
12:46
That's an old thing and I can't get it into my head. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, so while we were talking chess with Steve Fezzik, Steve was the, uh, state runner-up in chess in the state of Ohio. And- High school.
12:55
High school... uh, high school. Yep. High, pardon me, high school division. Still impressive. And so Kelly in my ear in the break says, uh, "Would still- would Steve give me 10 to 1 odds in a m- in a chess match?"
13:05
And you sort of almost chuckled, if I dare say, and you were like, "I'll give him 100 to 1." 100 to one? Sure. It's like me playing Todd at tennis. [laughs] Wow. We have to set this up. 100 to one. Sure.
13:19
Kelly Hiddl- the wit of Kelly Hiddlin versus the robotic actuarial brain of Steve Fezzik. All right, uh, to the National Football League.
13:30
You do have a, you have one, uh, before we get to the Survivor talk and last night, uh, you have one prop that you like in the Patriots game? Yeah, got this from, um, Will Hill. Okay.
13:39
And I really like it, so aggregation, baby. Aggregation. Um, we're gonna go Drake May.
13:43
I just bet this, um, across the street here, over 28 and a half rush yards against Buffalo, and it's all about the Bills have been just giving up gobs and gobs of yards to quarterbacks.
13:54
Now, okay, Lamar goes off against you, that's, that happens. You know- Mm-hmm... Fields gets 50 plus. That's what Fields does, right?
14:01
But, you know, when Spencer Rattler goes for 50 against you, here's a defense that is not scheming to stop a running quarterback. It's true.
14:09
And you look at the Patriots as a significant underdog, and I could see the, the game script being such that they're throwing a lot, thus Drake May, even if they don't script the running plays for him, which they don't, he's gonna scramble plenty of times and we should- all we really need is one big gain and he'll wind up going over the, uh, 28 and a half.
14:28
Steve Fezzik firing on a prop in the Patriots-Bills game. Over on Drake May's rushing yards. All right, to Thursday Night Football last night, um, I raised my hand.
14:37
I was one of these folks who had a couple of my Survivor entries on the Los Angeles Rams. You admit, before you make us all feel all bad about this, you admit in advance
14:46
that you would've taken the Rams had what not happened? Had life not gotten in the way. So I'm scrambling, right? Yeah.
14:53
I bet the Rams, like, minus 175, and I got some Rams, like, minus three and a half, and I got, and they, I think I s- took some minus 210, you know, because it just keeps going up, up, up, up, up all week long.
15:04
And I'm like, "I got, I gotta get me some niner," 'cause I'm overloaded here. Always play back. If there's a big line move, I have a, I have a philosophy, APB, always play back.
15:12
Now, Brad Powers, like, has tracked this, and he's like, he shows, like, "Hey, if you got in front of the line move, you know, you cash 57%, but if you fade the line move, you cash, like, 52% back," but that's fading it at the market number, and you can always, like, it peaked at nine, comes back at eight, and I just got so busy betting props, and the game kicked off, and I just fa- frankly, I forgot, "Oh, this would probably be a good, good S- Survivor select," so I got lucky.
15:36
I got blissfully lucky. Um, but I will say Survivor, you know what? Survivor is not all that it's cracked up to be, and the reason being- [snorts]...
15:46
is that in poker tour- I know it's super exciting, and you always have the chip lead if you're alive. You're always tied for first, so to speak, but only, like, um, y- your, your a thousand to one shot to make the money.
15:58
Yeah. So think about that.
16:00
If you played a poker tournament, and, like, there's 10,000 dudes playing poker and you gotta make the final table to get paid anything, that is a very, very, uh, slim win rate that, uh, you're gonna live, if you're gonna, you only have one Survivor, you're gonna live 1,000 years to cash it once?
16:14
Ouch. Yeah, but you, uh, you don't e- I don't think you have the Survivor fever that the rest of us have. There i- there is, everything you're saying is true mathematically, right?
16:23
But there's just something about Survivor. Because with Circa Millions, most people who enter something like Circa Millions, most people really don't feel, again, this is feel, feel like they have a shot at winning it.
16:37
In Survivor, you are lulled into thinking, "Yeah, I could actually do this," right? Yes. It's just, it's 20, it's a 20-team money line parlay. And, and people- What could go wrong?
16:50
And people get so mad at me because, like, one team is a seven-point favorite and maybe the money line's, like, minus, the no vig money line's, like, minus 300, plus 300.
16:59
So I'm like, "Well, that team has a 75% chance to win." Maybe it's 77, maybe it's 73 and a half, but it's pretty darn close to 75 versus if you have a 10-point favorite, maybe they're, like, minus 420, plus 420.
17:12
They have an 82% chance, and, and so everyone's like, "Well, I w- I think this, this seven-point favorite has a better chance of winning than the 10-point favorite," and I'm like, "No, they don't."
17:20
It's like the, the numbers are never that far off. Mm-hmm. And, like, people lose their minds. They're like, they get so angry. They're like, a- and, and like, hey, I'm the, I'm, I'm not, I'm not arrogant.
17:29
I'm the guy that says, "You know, the market's smarter than me. You know, trust the market," and, and then people are like, "Well, what about last night?" Well, you know what?
17:36
When, when the Rams are minus 380, plus 380, they're still gonna lose. You know, things are gonna happen. They're gonna fumble on the goal line. Guy's gonna get hit in the head and get the ball punched out.
17:44
Things happen. Things happen.
17:46
Uh, and what's, okay, this is where you get into the sort of Steve Fezzik, again, robot brain stuff, but the, uh, the intrinsic value of every entry heading into last night was a little over $1,500.
17:59
And so you view it through that lens, don't you? Yes. So I've got three entries, and now I'm starting to get a little excited. So now, now, now it's worth, it was worth 4,500.
18:07
Now they're worth, like, 6,500 or whatever it, the bump up will be because we'll lose people from the Rams. Mm-hmm. And so the bigger the equity I have in it, the more attention I'm gonna pay to- Right...
18:18
to what I do, obviously. But you, but you were saying, like, you- How, how people should look at it is through that lens, and that, and that what they dunked off yesterday was actually that. But you have to understand,
18:29
people don't, most people don't think of things that way, right? Most- They think, they think it's worth 18 million potentially. They look at the, at the payout- Correct... at the end. Yes.
18:38
Well, and also, and also there's a, and y- you're 100% right in what you're saying, but there's also a, the way that the brain shifts on some of these stuff. So most people, I'll, I'll try to speak for most people.
18:47
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. C- you, you'll correct me. But it's, we, we have our bets, right? There's futures bets, there's the day-to-day bets, then there's these contests. Mm-hmm. The two don't really meet in the same...
19:01
The way that most people compartmentalize, those two things don't meet, the, the bets versus the contest plays. See, and that's where I'm gonna disagree with that because- No, no, no.
19:10
I'm, I'm not saying, I'm not saying you're wrong. Mm-hmm. I'm just saying that's how most people, I think, compartmentalize it.
19:15
Right, and where my robotic brain says, "When I play a survivor pick, my c- pick's worth 1,500. Okay, maybe it's worth 1,400.
19:21
Maybe it's worth 1,600," depends on if you have a better path, it's worth a little bit more, a little bit less if you got a bad path.
19:27
But it's like, if I took the Rams, and I had one entry, I basically took my $1,500- Mm... said, "I'd like the Rams on the money line." Right. All right?
19:35
And then if the Rams get through, and we lose some people, then it'll be worth, like, $2,000. So in that case, I'm basically betting the Rams minus 300 on the money line.
19:43
That's why I'm so adamant about too cool for school.
19:46
When you play a two-point favorite or a three-point favorite, and you may get a little bit of a better path, but you're basically risking 1,500 to win 500 on a three-point favorite. It's- It's a-...
19:56
ludicrous- That's a great way-...
19:57
to think that could possibly be good investment because, yes, your entry is probably worth 5% more than the person, person that has the better, the, the, the worst path, but it's not worth 50% more.
20:08
See, I think that's a great way of putting it.
20:10
That, I think, resonated with people, what you, the way that you just couch it that way because, yes, in those terms, then you realize if anybody who's betting these small favorites, which would, on a money line bet, only bring you back so little, right?
20:23
It's just, um, that makes a lot of sense.
20:26
But I do think, I, you know, that's a great way of putting, but I do think that most people, I'll speak for myself, it's just like this is something you allocated money for weeks, well, maybe later it'll be months ago, right?
20:40
When you lose it, you don't, it's not the money lost because that money was long ago- Mm... out of your bank, right? Right. It's just what could have been. And so it, it's really this weird thing that our brain does.
20:54
You're much more, and this is, I give you all the credit in the world, the fact that you're able to maintain your head about you and know this is just a math equa- this is just a math problem like anything else is in betting.
21:04
But I do think most people are like, "Yeah, no, it's a different, it's a totally different matter." Um, it's the heartache comes from the what could have been, not what has been lost.
21:13
Yeah, and, and the lesson to be learned, and, um, th- th- that would say, and the same thing, like, if you have a big parlay, right? Yeah. You should always calculate what's my equity, okay?
21:21
So if you have a, like, a 10-team parlay that's gonna pay 100,000, and it's eight-deep, okay? Basically say, "All right, it's worth 25,000."
21:29
Essentially, I've made an implicit bet of 25 grand on the ninth leg of the parlay, and then I can say, you know, "How do I, do I wanna hedge that? Is it, i- is it, am I uncomfortable?
21:38
Is it life-changing money based upon my current bankroll?" That's the way to look at it. Yeah. Um, what was the thing you were saying about, like, how you can tell a pro bettor from a non-pro bettor?
21:48
What was your big thing? Oh, uh, b- I feel very strongly about it, and everyone's gonna lose their mind. They're gonna Boulder- I'm Boulder morning. You, you get very excited here.
21:55
They're, oh, my gosh, they're gonna get so angry. So I, I tell, I, I tell in my eyes that they're just not doing this correctly as well. Oh, I know what you're gonna say, yeah. It's 20 minutes before the game starts.
22:05
They're getting their beer. They're, they got their seat. You know, they're at Stadium Swim, or they're at, at the Wynn beautiful sportsbook boutique, kicking back, ready.
22:13
They got their, their wager in, and the truth is, is, like, no, that's, like, that five minutes before a game starts on Su- a Thursday night, Sunday night, Monday night.
22:22
That is, like, the time where you gotta be like a quarterback.
22:24
You gotta be reading, like, what the, what, what the defense is giving you because now, all over the place, you're seeing rogue lines pop up, team totals pop up, prop bets moving too much because it, like, maybe it backs someone in the back where a pitch just over-bet something, and you get great, great rogue numbers.
22:40
How the heck can you just be sitting back, drinking your Stroh's beer or your Old Milwaukee instead of, like- [laughs]...
22:45
being focused to win- It's- From one beer lover to another, Stroh's It's why we, it's why we will never see you doing media right before a kickoff. Exactly. Coming back, Steve Fezzik. Fezzik Fridays on The Numbers Game.
22:55
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23:10
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23:21
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23:33
Don't wait. Lock in 40% off today with promo code ANG at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, we get tweets at Beating the Book.
23:44
Mariners Geek, "Gil, is it just me, or is Al Michaels losing a step? He seems confused a few times, and Herbie bailed him out gracefully." Here's the thing.
23:53
Her- and by the way, Kirk Herbstreit does bail him out gracefully, and that, he should be commended for that time and time again.
23:58
But, uh, you are not gonna get me to say a bad thing about Al Michaels because Al is, is Al in his 80s? Maybe not, maybe late 70s. I'm not sure. He's doing play-by-play for the Cincinnati Reds in 1970.
24:09
Yeah, and, and Al will have done more in this business than all of us combined, and, and he is just a, he, he's just been awesome in everything he's done.
24:18
And, and, you know, you have to give grace to, to folks who get older as well. Um- Even I have a day or two in here. [laughs] Ryan Hyatt- I tell you, Brent Musburger's, he's a, uh, vampire.
24:29
He's, he doesn't, he hasn't slept at all 80, am I being told? 80 years old. Ryan Hyatt, Tactical M'lay, one of my favorite early '80s punk bands, thanks to, uh, Fezzik for the mention. [laughs] No idea.
24:40
No, I think he's joking. Charles- Charles, Charles in Connecticut, "I was third in my under, uh, what is it? Under 13 Connecticut chess competition way back in the '80s. My best friend was second, my cousin was first."
24:52
Just a little insi- a little insight into my geeky childhood Bobby Fischer craze, 1972, the Cold War, a miracle on ice. Forget that, it's when Fischer beat the, beat Spassky and the Russians.
25:02
That's what, where it was really at. Who is considered the greatest chess master of them all? I think the current dude, the w- current world champion is the greatest, yeah. Who's that? Magnus Carlsen. Really?
25:11
Yeah, he's 20- More than, more than Kasparov and- Oh, C- Carlsen's, like, rated 2900. Kasparov I think was, like, 2750. Oh. It's not even cl- not even close. Everybody knows that, Steve.
25:20
And he's got better theory on top of it, you know? Ugh, duh. So like, yeah. 2900, what is that rating out of? Uh, 2900. [laughs] Wow.
25:30
He's like- What kind of robot do you have to be to have, like, a perfect, perfect score in chess like that? I think if we play, if I played him a million times, he'd beat me a million.
25:38
He wouldn't, I wouldn't get one draw. Wow. Like, it's like that, it's not even, it's... It's incredible. Yeah.
25:44
Steve, I'd like to, uh, share with everybody, uh, we did this on our group chat, me, you, uh, Todd Wishnev, Will Hill, Chris Fallica.
25:51
We're on a group, group chat, and we, we probably send roughly five billion texts a day to each other, or as, uh- Clutter... or as Deborah Song, a fashion stylist, says, "Are you talking with your girlfriends again?"
26:02
[laughs] Um, I did recently, I did a top 10 list of, of the Stevie hate rankings. I can't really do the top 10 list, but I can do a top five. [laughs] Okay.
26:14
[laughs] 'Cause if I did the top 10, uh, you may not enjoy getting some of these out here. All right. Here's your top 10, here's your top five. Ready? Sure. Uh,
26:23
athletes, number five, athletes celebrating achievements on the field that you deem not worthy of celebration. Oh, I did my- This drives you crazy... job. I got a first, I got first down. You know, it's just...
26:34
Give me a break. Celebrate after you win the game. Let the kids have some fun. Number four, corporations that require a supervisor to sign off on a 25% discount on pot stickers.
26:45
So Caesars is giving a 25% discount to locals, but you need manager approval- [laughs]... on this. It's like, oh, w- we can't trust the employees to be able to check someone's ID.
26:54
We need, we need to get upper management involved. Uh, number three, F1 and anyone complicit with it ruining Las Vegas. You know, I, I- You, you have to do a mea culpa on this, don't you?
27:05
Or at least a, a backtrack I, I am convinced that there is massive corruption and between the construction companies of Las Vegas and Jim Gibbons and the, um, the Las Vegas Convention, um, whatever they're called, um, because no one wants F1.
27:21
Nobody. Nobody who works on the strip wants F1. Nobody. No one who stays on the strip wants F1- Nobody...
27:26
other than F1 phantoms only for two or three days, and they, the local businesses don't want it because they lose tons of business for a month and a half of construction when they first did it, four months of construction.
27:34
It is a, a, just a boondoggle for the construction companies and corruption, and I'm, I'm convinced of this. It's like, like, I could become mayor. Why don't you? One promise. One, one poli- one policy candidate.
27:46
One candidate, I will cancel the F1 and- Yeah... everyone will vote for me. I'll vote for you. You got my vote, Steve Fezzik. What party will you run for? Never mind, don't answer that.
27:55
Number two, poor kickoff and kickoff/punt return strategy. Oh, this is your thing. So the, the, what happens is that, like, on punting, the, the, the punter's job is to kick it into the end zone. Yes.
28:06
The kick returner's job is to, like,
28:10
thwar- thwart the punter and field the punt on the two-yard line before it bounces out of the end zone, and the kick return coverage people, their job is to knock the ball th- into the end [laughs] zone.
28:19
It's, like, the opposite across the board. [laughs] But, but no, in all seriousness- Pff... back in the summer- Yeah... the rules came, and, and like, Gil- I'm a geek. So Gilly and I are on the treadmill.
28:26
Gil doesn't like to talk on the treadmill.
28:28
I like to talk, and I'm like, "Here's what people should do, that no one can move on the kickoff, so that you should kick the utmost ugly corkscrew knuckle ball, um, that's hard to catch- Rams did it, though...
28:38
and land it around the 10." Yeah. All right? Mm-hmm. And so, and people, "Oh, Steve, he thinks he's smarter than these NFL coaches and these billion-dollar com..."
28:46
No, I'm smarter than a sixth grader, 'cause a sharp eighth grader knows that's what to do. So guess what happens? Shocker, all these dumbos are doing it completely wrong. It's like a double mistake.
28:56
One team kicks it one yard deep in the end zone. The other team's like, "Well, you screwed up, but I'll still have my kick returner run it out of the end zone. I'll start on the 21 instead of the 35."
29:04
But the sh- there's two sharp, you know, um, NFL teams, Carolina Panthers of all people. They k- they kick these phenomenal knuckleballs.
29:11
They beat Atlanta just because of the kickoffs, that the, Atlanta g- had no idea what to do, and the Rams do a really good job at it as well, and both those teams are averaging six yards better on their opponent's position to start the game than the, than the rest of the league.
29:25
Yeah. And everyone will copy, but f- for, for whatever reason, no, no one was in charge of this. You know, they had all summer to figure it out, and they didn't.
29:33
And that's just number two, and he threw his glasses down on the table. That's how angry he gets about it. It's really true.
29:37
We talk a little bit on the Megapod, on the Beginning the Book Megapod about, uh, when, when did the cardinal rule on punt returns of plant your feet on the 10, and everything that goes over your head, you just let it go over your head.
29:50
When did that get erased? When...
29:53
What happened is that the special teams people want a guy that can run a 4340, put a f- guy that runs a 4540 with a really high football IQ and that always catches the ball because, like, the kids that are, like, have the best ath- athleticism- Yeah...
30:07
like, it's, there's a lot going on and, and they just, it, you have to have a high IQ, you know, uh, football IQ guy returning kicks. But then the, the new kickoff rules are m- are m- you're...
30:19
I mean, look, last night's game, for all the things that the Rams did wrong, you could argue, you could argue that the ultimate reason they lost was that Cardi was short of the landing zone, and the Niners got the ball to 40.
30:31
They were able to kick a field goal, and that was that, right? Yeah. And where you contrast that, like, with Pittsburgh, they put Caleb Johnson, a rookie, out there. Right. Doesn't even know the rules.
30:38
Doesn't even know the rules. So the ball against Seattle, the ball is, like, knuckling and bounces past him. It goes in the end zone. It's like, "Ah- Must be dead, I hope. I don't know.
30:46
I don't really know the rules, but I'm a rookie. We just wind Stevie up on the- Yeah... weekends when stuff happens. Hey, look, Steve- Touchdown, Seattle.
30:51
Hey, look, Steve, a, a punt was returned from the two, a fair catch at the two. [laughs] Todd said he saw a fair catch in the end zone- [laughs]... this past weekend in college football. Ah.
30:59
And by the way, there is one thing he hates more. Number one, uh, Stevie hate rankings, uh, Starbucks food, of course. [laughs] I- if Starbucks just- Have you ever brought that up before?
31:08
If Starbuck- They have, uh, their, their menu items far worse than, like, Dunkin' Donuts or Burger King, all right? [laughs] And they charge four times more.
31:15
If they just had one go-to freshly made item, I, I would like, like a honey wheat croissant. Yeah. But, you know, just one, have one really good item.
31:24
Now, like The Golden Gate used to do this, the 99 cent shrimp cocktail. They had one good item. You knew what they stood for, yeah.
31:31
And, and it would bring people in, like, l- l- l- like, have a loss leader and, and don't make any money.
31:37
A- and now all of a sudden, people can get their coffee, and they can get one item that they feel really good about.
31:41
Meanwhile, Starbucks stores shuttering all, well, not across the nation, but there's, like, 400 stores that they just closed down. An, an $8- Yeah... two-ounce cake pop is available at Starbucks on the strip.
31:50
Last thing, I asked this of Dr. Bob, I wanna ask it of you.
31:54
If someone is listening to you, beyond the hate ranking stuff, but as a handicapper, they're like, "I like, I like what this guy is, uh, talking about," what would you, what would gi- what would be your first bit of advice to someone who's like, "I wanna be more like him"?
32:06
What's the, what's the something that they could just hang their hat on as something they should always keep in mind if they're starting betting that they should do that will set them apart from the rest?
32:15
Yeah, that's a great question. I would pick one team or one prop to really focus on and know more about that than any other team. So example- One team or one league or conference?
32:25
Um, the more you can b- b- like, like NFL Carolina Panthers, what they're doing with the kickoffs. Okay.
32:30
Like, imagine what you could do with prop bets w- when you, when you recognize, "Oh, I'm just following Carolina, and they know how to kick off, and my opponents don't."
32:38
So think about, like, if they, i- i- i- like, like, if they were playing in the Super Bowl, [laughs] that's not gonna happen.
32:43
But, like, they, they always have a prop, you know, which team is going to e- you know, have the longer kickoff return and things like that.
32:49
And obviously Carolina doesn't give up long kick returns because of the way they kick off, just the nuances. Um, like some people have focused, like, on in baseball, like, on the murphy, yurphy. Yeah.
32:58
But the problem with that is it's a very h- difficult to beat prop, whereas there's other props, like, runs, hits, errors everyone just ignores in baseball. That's an imminently more beatable prop.
33:09
So, like, if, if that's the only thing you bet in baseball, you're going to beat it because you'll be better at it than the odds maker. Specialization is what- Yes... you're looking for.
33:18
Specialization, whether it's on a specific team, a specific prop, in some cases, a specific outlying sport as well. And, and a conference, it's much better to follow the Mountain West- Right...
33:28
or to follow the MAC than to follow the Big Ten because everyone knows how good, you know, uh, Oregon and Iowa and Illinois are. Yes. Steve Fezzik, everybody, a star of Fezzik Fridays.
33:39
You can follow him on Twitter at your own peril, tread lightly, @FezzikSports, where he's, you know, a little more ornery. Thank you, Steve, appreciate it. Off to Re- Resorts World to get my abandoned money.
33:50
[laughs] Enjoy. Good luck with that. Kelly's back in the chair next right here on The Numbers Game. We'll recap everything.
33:55
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. You like how, how mad I got Steve?
34:12
Throws his glasses down on the console. Oh, it was great. [laughs] It's just, if you, if you ever had any interest in getting him mad, just be like, "What do you think about special teams this year?"
34:20
And he'll just get, he'll just wind up. Uh, he was, he was all about that two summers ago. Yeah. But now it really, like, every single... We, we'll do it just to mess with him.
34:29
We'll be like, "Stevie, somebody just, just somebody just fair caught a ball at the three." So he gets, get- [laughs] Oh, he starts from the beginning again. "Hey, what do you think about Starbucks food?
34:37
I was curious if you've ever chimed in [laughs] on that before," that kind of thing. The k- the kickoff thing is awesome. Like, I would, if I was a kicker in this league right now, I'd be obsessed.
34:44
Like, I would be out- He-... on the practice field every day trying this stuff Steve is right. He's been right about the kickoff thing, though. Mm-hmm. Yeah, he has been.
34:50
That has determined so many, well, our brain doesn't process it this way, but it, those, those kickoffs and the results on them have gone a long way towards determining so many games this year.
35:02
Last night was another one. Like, Card, short of the, short of the landing zone. What was the game on this past week? Short of the landing zone also that determined- Yeah, I feel like there was a couple of them.
35:10
There was, there were so many of these. It's like, and Carty, by the way, was considered the best of all the kickoff guys, right? He corkscrewed them.
35:17
It was hard for the opponent to- But, like, that's what's great, right? Yeah. It is the risk. Yes. Right? Like, the perfect corkscrew- Yeah... or are you gonna land a little short? I kinda like it.
35:26
They really, they really hit on it. Yeah. They have, they have finally stumbled on a great combination of rules- I like it... I think. Yeah. 'Cause, again, touchback, 35, short of the landing zone, 40.
35:39
You know, all this stuff is great. Bounces in the landing zone, then you get 20, right? You know, there's different w- uh, it's all good. It's all good.
35:47
I didn't, uh, you know, I didn't finish second in, in my state for chess or anything like that, but- Oh, were you offended by the 100 to one? No, no, not at, not at all. Oh.
35:54
But I, I just thought it was like Kevin from The Office, where I'm like, "You're giving me 100 to one odds." I'm like, "I ain't that bad of a chess player." If anybody gives you 10,000 to one odds. Yeah, lots of time.
36:04
Uh, let's re- let's recap all the best bets. I have the Chiefs minus three on Monday Night Football against the Jag wires. Uh, that is, uh, from Guessing Lines on Monday.
36:16
I also have the Saints minus two against the Giants, and I, Kelly, have decided that the Ravens just move too much. Ravens plus two. Um, yeah. I just, and listen, again,
36:30
they're decimated, I get it, but weakness on weakness helps the Ravens' defensive weakness get mitigated, and Cooper Rush is not as bad as you think he is.
36:38
That's my working premise for the Ravens catching the two now against the Houstons Texan- a Houston Texans team that is terrible on offense. Terrible. What you got? Terrible. Terrible Let's see.
36:49
I've got, I've got a bunch all over the place. I am tailing Zach on Justin Fields over 186 and a half passing yards. He came on the show yesterday and gave that out. I thought that was pretty good.
36:58
I think the Jets will be able to move the ball pretty easily against the, uh, Cowboys. Um, AJ Brown, anytime touchdown. We talked about this earlier in the week. I grabbed that at plus 189.
37:08
Feed the, uh, squeaky wheel, uh, AJ Bro- although AJ Brown had a little bit of an apology. I don't know if you caught that yesterday. He did a little walk back. Yeah, a little walk back. Little walk back.
37:16
We'll see if that comes into play. I doubt it, though. Eventually he still gets the throw- uh, ball thrown at him a lot. Seahawks laid two and a half on the opener. I did bet the under in that game as well.
37:26
Ended up getting on that yesterday, and then also from opens, Lions and Bills tees down. There you go. Well done. Oh, wait, I got another sheet. You got more. Awards.
37:36
Uh, Mike McDonald, 10 to 1 to win Coach of the Year, I bet yesterday. No. And then Bobby Portis, 30 to 1 to win Sixth Man of the Year- Wow. Where'd that come from?... in the NBA.
37:44
Uh, just finishing up some NBA bets, uh, Gil. NBA betting guide coming out next week. By the way, we, are we still doing the thing where we're like no one remembers Bobby Portis punching that guy in the face?
37:54
Uh, I mean, I don't know that nobody remembers it. Well, he seems to, he seems to get a, uh, a free pass for it all these years later. Okay. Yeah. I, I think Draymond Green does, too, and that was a lot- Oh...
38:05
that was a lot less time ago. I, I don't think he does. I think people can't stand Draymond. Like, I think a lot of people can't stand Draymond. I, I think that they are- But Bobby Portis, everybody loves.
38:15
Oh, I think you're crazy, man. I think- Really?... I think it's a crazy call. I think Draymond is, is maybe the one of the mo- he's maybe, he's one of the more polarizing players in the NBA. Either you love or hate him.
38:25
And if you love him- Who, who loves him besides Warriors fans? Warriors fans. Oh, we love him. Yeah, but- Warriors fans and like basketball people But everybody else hates him, right?
38:32
Yeah, but, I mean, I think basketball people like Draymond Green. Hmm. Okay. They like to forget that fact that Jordan Poole just got punched in the face. [laughs] Oh, I don't, I don't excuse Draymond.
38:41
Believe me, I don't. Paul Carr's best bets today, Bournemouth Fulham under two and a half goals. Arsenal to win, uh, win to nil. Pardon me, Arsenal win to nil against West Ham. Irons, Chelsea, Liverpool draw plus 285.
38:54
Look at Paulie going crazy with the draw, plus 285, and then Chris Felica just vomiting out college football plays today. Is that what he did? Vomiting? Is that a technical term? Yeah.
39:03
Alabama minus 10 and a half versus Vanderbilt. That was fun last year, Vandy. Watch this. That's what Chris thinks happened. He's also laying the wood with Texas A&M minus 14 and a half against Mississippi State.
39:13
Purdue catching nine and a half versus the Illini. Nebraska laying 11 and a half versus the Spartans. Cincinnati laying one and a half versus Iowa State. Chris is going full game on that. Florida team total under.
39:24
Doesn't know how's, how they're gonna score 19 and a half against Texas, and then UCLA adjusted season win total under one and a half wins. Oh my God. Ab- Oh, I bet that, too. I forgot, I forgot I bet that- You did?...
39:38
when you brought that up. Minus 250 at MGM. It's a little bit short. I don't see how they're getting two wins. You look at that schedule- It's, well, it's a-... that's who it is.
39:44
Doctor- I know it's minus 250, but that's a fun bet to have for the rest of the season. And then the Dr. Bob Play of the Week, brought to you by no one. Kansas State plus six versus Baylor. There you go.
39:56
Bob with a thorough reasoning. Uh, and then Stevie Fezzik in studio. Uh, the great aggregator. San Diego State minus six versus Colorado State. That is tonight. Cincinnati, he's going with the first half play.
40:09
Moneyline versus Iowa State. Air Force Navy under 52. Your FSU Seminoles plus the points versus Miami.
40:18
And then in the, uh, National Football League, Drake May, 29 and a half, uh, he's taking the over on 29 and a half Drake May's rushing yards for the Patriots against the Buffalo Billiards- Yeah, checks out...
40:29
this weekend. Checks out for you? Yeah. That tracks. That tracks. Shop around, though. I, I, I, I saw a couple, a few different numbers. I think I saw 25 and a half out there on that prop.
40:38
Uh, it's all brought to you by G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN. G-Bank built with sports betters in mind.
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41:04
Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. That's vsin.com/gbank. Have we gotten over the game last night? I haven't. No, not at all. Not at all. No, not at all. The, um- Nope...
41:16
and like looking at bets for this weekend and stuff, too, like, there, there's nothing I bet big. Well, what it does to my survivor brain is it terrifies me now, right? Because it's like, okay,
41:25
I really expected the Rams to get through, and now Arizona and New Eng- and Arizona and Buffalo, who I'm considering playing with my remaining entries, my remaining four, I feel like both are so shaky.
41:40
Arizona just by nature of the fact that they're, how can I put this, Arizona. And then, uh, Buffalo, I don't, Buffalo is, uh, I don't know. But there really isn't for me another alternative sort of...
41:54
I know you mi- you're going with the Colts. I'm going with the Colts. That might be the smartest play right now. Going with the Col- I mean, I'm, I'm, I'm the same thing. I'm a little scared of- Yeah...
42:03
the Raiders offense and w- you know, at least the capability they have there. But I was s- I was sitting over here smiling when you're talking about the Cardinals, 'cause I had a conversation with a friend the other day.
42:11
Might as well have been the same thing that we had talked about last week when I ended up betting the Titans. Mm-hmm. He's like, he's going crazy.
42:17
"How can the Cardinals be laying eight and a half points against, uh, against, you know, anybody?" Blah, blah, blah. And I'm like, "Yeah, you d- dude, your turn. Your turn. I can't back up that play. [laughs] I can't."
42:24
He's like, "Dave was on the Titans." Oh, that's right. Last week was your Titans week. Yeah, it was my Titans turn. That's right. After your turn, yeah, everybody's gotta live through it once, I think.
42:31
Cleve did the whole, uh, Titans mea culpa on the Megapod yesterday. He was like, "You know how I came on the air on, on Numbers Game before the season started- Oh, yeah...
42:39
and said that I felt like the Titans- Forgot about that... were wildly underrated, and I took, he took the season win total over." He's like, "Yeah, my bad. I messed that one up."
42:46
Um- You know what I was randomly thinking about today? Uh, after Paul's segment 'Cause he, he has a draw. We haven't talked about this in a while.
42:53
You know how we, like, Steve will hop on, or we have a lot of sharp guests that come on here, uh, through the summer, and it's, "Hey, if you bet every under on every player, you know, every player prop in the NFL, you're probably gonna squeak out a few bucks 'cause of injuries," right?
43:04
Tracks, makes sense. Soccer draws- Oh, yeah... like- Totally... I haven't talked about this in years. Totally. There's no part of me that believes i- believes if I just bet every single one- This is-...
43:14
over the course of a season. You know what I chalk that up to? That was pandemic betting for me. Yeah. I was like, "Oh- Yeah... let me just bet a bunch of draws here." Gotta bet some.
43:22
It's just, like, there's no way- Yeah... that, that you're [laughs] you're telling me long-term you didn't, because of the amount of money that comes in on the sides, that number's gotta get inflated. Right.
43:31
And it's gotta be value on it. By the way, do we have Paul Carr in the, in the GBank recap? Did we? I don't even remember. Yeah, we did. We did? Okay. Yeah, you cruised through it. I did.
43:38
I- Here's a special graphic, though. I literally just said it two minutes ago, and I forgot completely. Uh, Bournemouth Fulham under two and a half. That is today, by the way. That's today. That's today.
43:47
Arsenal win to nil is tomorrow, as is Chelsea Liverpool draw. Yeah, I did. You're right. I did. Of course I did. Um, so I think in the end it's Arizona, some divvying up of Arizona and Buffalo for me.
43:59
But to the early tweeter's point, at some point here now moving forward, if I am lucky enough to get through this week with however many, let's just say it's one, but anywhere between one to four,
44:13
at some point here now moving forward, I am not going to be playing the, the most popular picks on the board. But we'll do our survivor segment. I'll go through them, and then we'll go through all that strategy.
44:23
That, uh, segment's still obviously, uh, perhaps our most well-received of the entire week. Prop Points is next with Jon Hansen. I don't know if you know this, Kelly, but, uh, Bill Ade wrote this in his newsletter.
44:34
Jon Hansen eight and O on props last night. Swept the board. There we go. Eight and O. He'll be talking about that next. Money Moves with JBT, and Stormy after that, Mitch and Paul after that.
44:45
It's VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy.
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