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Oct 4, 2024
A Numbers Game | October 4, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | October 4, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
There's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. The Numbers Game where sports betting lives. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin in the hizzy.
0:22
How you doing, man? I'm doing well. Yeah? You've got that intro down pat now. That, that's solid.
0:26
Oh, because you had the, you had given me notes on it, and what you said was is that I said, "Where sports betting lives," after your name- Yeah, yeah...
0:33
and it made it sound like sports betting lives inside of your body. That, that, that's right. I was trying to get T-shirts made- Oh... of just "Kelly Bidlin, where sports betting lives." That's right.
0:40
I take notes very well. Yeah. [laughs] Thank you. Uh, off to another flying start, everybody. [laughs] Uh, it's Friday. That means football Friday. Let's go. Yes. Although we did a little, uh, fliparoo.
0:50
Am I allowed to call it that?- Mm-hmm... technical term. Uh, Chris Felica, uh, he has apparently another job that he does. Yeah. It's so important. At Fox Sports. Yeah. Mm-hmm. A diva. Total diva.
1:00
Anyway, we had to move him up, and then, uh, Paul Carr in his stead. So the last hour will be Paul Carr on the global football, followed by Fezzik and Dr. Bob, and Felica will join us at this hour. That's right.
1:10
Which is very kind of him. A little football and football. To squeeze us in. Yes. I like that. Uh, Jason Weingarten will also join us as well. Um, and, uh, so much to get to here right off the top, though.
1:20
Uh, our NFL bets as well on the show, of course, on a football Friday, as we head into week five of the National Football League. But let us begin with baseball yesterday, and a dramatic deciding game three.
1:32
You love best of three series, don't you, Fezzik? Ooh-hoo. The only wildcard round that w- uh, wildcard series that went to a third and deciding game, and man, was this unbelievable.
1:42
The Brewers, on the strength of two solo shots, take two to nothing lead late. Um, and then it gets to the ninth.
1:50
They got the, uh, two solo shots, I believe, in the seventh inning, and then the, uh, it gets to the ninth, and up with runners on first and third steps the polar bear, Pete Alonso, and oppo jack.
2:02
And the Mets add an insurance run and win it four to two.
2:05
The Mets, in the span of four days, hit a dramatic ninth-inning home run in Atlanta to, uh, make the playoffs, to clinch a playoff berth, when Francisco Lindor jacked a, uh, two-run shot there in Atlanta on Monday against the Braves in the first game of the doubleheader.
2:21
And then just, well, actually, three days later in Milwaukee in the decider, they get it done with that Pete Alonso, uh, Pete Alonso shot. And the Mets, the cardiac kids, are headed to take on the Phillies.
2:35
Every one of the qu- uh, every one of the division series begins tomorrow, a quadruple header. Uh, I did add the Padres series to my Royals series bets.
2:44
Those are my only two series bets thus far, and I, I don't think I'm gonna jump in on the other two pre-flop here. What were you smiling at? What were you about to say? No, just that, that, the game, it was nuts.
2:53
It was incredible. Like, it w- it was nuts. Like, the, the, the, I mean, the Brewers home runs back to back first.
2:58
Like, I mean, I was, we, we were joking a little bit about it on the show yesterday, but every Mets fan that I know, like it's the- Oh...
3:06
like you're trying to hold back text messages, but you're like, "This is cl-" Like, "Oh, Brewers out of nowhere. Two guys I don't even know just, like, back to back home runs." I was living it through parlay.
3:15
Those poor guys. Oh, you mean, you mean Bowers and Frelich are not, uh- Right. Exactly. I, I, it was really nice of Milwaukee to pull two guys out of the stands- [laughs]... and let them participate in the game.
3:24
That was really nice. That was indeed. And I, I thought that's how the Mets were gonna go down, and then Alonso gets up there, and Gil, please answer me something, okay? Yes. Yes. That ball leaves his bat.
3:34
How- Knew it instantly... how did Pete Alonso knew, know it instantly? Because when I saw, I'm like, "I don't know if that's gonna get out."
3:41
Oh, I think everybody who watches a lot of baseball, knowing his power and the way that it- Okay... came off his bat, I think everybody kind of knew it was gone.
3:49
Yeah, I feel like I'm the only one thinking that today, but I was like, "He made it over by, like, five feet." I just wanna say this, 'cause we're moving, we'll move on to football here, and I have a tennis play as well.
3:56
Um, how is it, and I know I'm not the first to say that, but how can you not be romantic about baseball? Oh, it's awesome. I, uh, again, football is my first love. It's the one I loved innately, right?
4:07
Sounds like that line's from a movie. Is it from a movie? It might be a m- it is, it is probably from a movie. Moneyball. Moneyball. [laughs] Yeah.
4:12
A- as Bob Costas, I, I said this with crack yesterday, Bob Costas says, you know, "Football's a one-night stand. Baseball's a romance."
4:18
And I always sound corny when I talk about this, but I mi- like, when, when San Francisco and the Giants were winning those three World Series at the beginning of last decade, there is nothing like going to play a postseason baseball, uh, w- and then you walk through the city.
4:33
I mean, it just makes the city bet- It's incredible. So congratulations. I lived it through parlay yesterday. Was texting with Jeff Parles, a, uh, Mets fan. He is heading back to game three- Ooh...
4:42
in Queens for game three of the, uh, Mets-Philly series. And Paul Carr, who will join us to talk soccer, is a Royals fan. He will be attending game three in Kansas City in the Kansas City-Yankee series.
4:53
So all of our people are, are going with their fanhood and going to these games. Now, that happened yesterday, as did football, the American version of football.
5:03
Um, and this was one of these things, I asked you that question yesterday, "Okay, which are you gonna watch?" With Amazon,
5:09
there is no seamless way to toggle back and forth if you only have one TV, so I headed to the sportsbook. I was like- Yeah... "Let me, let me just watch both of these."
5:18
Uh, what did you end up having your eyes on more in that?
5:20
Well, I, I got the two TVs set up, which, you know, b- before, before, before anybody wants to tweet at me, not a flex, because, uh, bring a woman into your place, and then they're like, "Why do you have two TVs?"
5:30
Like, that's the, like- [laughs] Yeah, it's not a flex. But I had the two going. I'm with you. That is what makes the apps difficult, though. You can't, like, get out of the app, get back in real quick.
5:38
So I had them both going, but like I said on the show, my eyes just naturally gravitate towards football more, but I didn't miss a- like, I, like, I missed all, I may, uh, or I caught all the big moments of the baseball game.
5:49
They were incredible. I'm with you. I would still take that baseball finish over what we got in the NFL. All I got out of that is women come to your home. [laughs] That's all I got out of that.
5:58
Stopped listening after that. Um, it's a, a special Numbers Game investigation right before our eyes. Yeah, it's like, all right. Um- There's, like, three that have ever said that. Yeah. Uh, [laughs] okay.
6:08
You should have stopped. [laughs] You should have stopped before that sentence Um, I could not have been more wrong about this Thursday Night Football game. Uh, I went to the well one too many times.
6:16
I had been hitting the unders on these Thursday games. This almost went over in the first half- Yeah... and probably should have gone over in the first half. What a game. The Falcons beat the Buccaneers 36 to 30.
6:28
Can we just go over the last sequence of this? 'Cause this, I mean, it was just... I wanna get your thoughts on some of this. Uh, the score at this point... Well, let's go, let's go 6:42 left in the game.
6:39
Atlanta has a third and six at the Tampa Bay 36. It's tw- it's 30 to 27, Buccaneers. 30 to 27, Buccaneers, 6:42 left in the game, third and six for the Falcons at the Tampa Bay 36.
6:50
Mooney, Darnell Mooney just drops a would-be conversion from Kirk Cousins. After he had a huge game, is having a huge season. Having a, having a great game.
6:59
And then Koo, Younghoe Koo, gets his 54-yard field goal try blocked by Tavior Thomas, and it looks like Tampa Bay is in control, three-point lead with the ball. And then they matriculate, do the Bucs.
7:11
They get it to first and 10 at the Atlanta 32 with 2:55 to go. The Bucs are trying to seal the game, and then Bucky Irving gets stripped by Jessie Bates, and Caden Ellis recovers at the Atlanta 25.
7:23
So you're like, "Okay, wow, Atlanta from the dead." But then Atlanta, um, they go nowhere on first down with the run, then Cousins gets sacked.
7:32
They end up fourth and 15 at their own 20 with 1:52 left, all three of their timeouts. Let me ask you a question right here. Mm-hmm. They're down three, fourth and 15, own 20, 1:52 left.
7:42
Would you have punted there, or would you have gone for it? I would've punted probably. I was thinking about that. Uh, I don't, I don't think there's, I don't think it's clear-cut one way or the other. I'm with you.
7:53
But I- We didn't discuss this beforehand. I'm exactly with you. I, and you know me, I stay off Twitter. Yeah. Was this a, was this a hot topic on Tw- I, I don't know if it- 'Cause I think I would've punted...
8:00
it was a hot topic in our text because Wishnev adamantly was going after Raheem Morris, saying, "Oh my God, the only play here is to punt."
8:08
And my pushback on it was, I probably would've punted, but I don't think it was, like, the most egregious thing we've seen.
8:15
I, I, I also think I'd be stronger with my statement of they should've punted if I didn't see the rest of the game beforehand, right? Correct. Like, the offenses were moving at will. Correct.
8:24
It, it was a trade-off between, okay, we've been, we've been crushing them all day. It is fourth and 15, though, right? Mm-hmm. It's the 15 yards that makes it dicey.
8:32
But it's a trade between we get to go for it, um, so we have a shot, we give ourselves a shot at, at, uh, at a conversion, but then we'll probably have to get a touchdown if we're fortunate enough to get the stop, versus we'll probably have to get a field goal.
8:45
Right. So that's, that's the calculus right there. Anyway, they go for it. Cousins is picked by Lavonte David, and that feels like ballgame again, right? Tampa Bay's gonna win this now. It's over.
8:55
Tampa Bay gets the ball with 1:44 left, again, up three, this time at the Atlanta 28. And then the refs on second down miss a face mask- Oh, God... a clear face mask on the Falcons.
9:09
But they catch a holding penalty in the same time on the Bucs. Mm-hmm. So that's brutal for the Buccaneers. I know there's a lot of people who had the Falcons, who were like, "Oh, we should've won it." Eh,
9:19
could, there's a lot of things that happened in this game. Yeah, there was a lot here, yep. A lot of things happened. So that pushes the Bucs back. Second and long, by the way, Evans is open downfield.
9:27
Baker doesn't see him, or he just wants to be conservative. Either way, eventually results in a punt of all things. So Atlanta gets a reprieve. They take over at their own 20 with 1:14 left and no timeouts.
9:38
And five plays in, with 12 seconds left at the Tampa Bay 43, no timeouts left, Cousins to London for 14, which seemed like it was a little too long, but they get the spike in with one second left at the Tampa Bay 28.
9:51
What a, what execution by the Falcons and Kirk Cousins and all those players to get up there and just stop and, and ha- snap that ball with one second left. Uh-oh, what's that face? It's the play of the game.
10:02
It's the play of the game. I agree. Spiking the ball was a pl- was the play of the game. And it was not controversial. It was absolutely- Yeah... with a second left. Um- I've never seen it run that well...
10:11
and then instead of a 47-yard field goal attempt, Atlanta, it's a delay of game. They don't even pay attention to the play clock, they're so, like, pumped about their spike. Well, play of the game.
10:21
They celebrated way too hard afterwards. So now it's a 52-yard field goal, but Younghoe Koo with, again, uh, this is the underrated part about Younghoe Koo. He has the shortest windup. Yes, yes.
10:31
It's like two and a half steps or something. Bang, right through the middle. We're going to overtime 30 to 30. Uh, Baker Mayfield calls tails. Tails fails, ladies and gentlemen. It's heads. Atlanta wins the toss.
10:42
They matriculate. Fourth play, first and 10 at the Tampa Bay 45. Drake London is hurt on the previous play, so KhaDarel Hodge comes in. Cousins sneaks it in to Hodge just past Zyon McCollum, who's trying to pick it.
10:55
Hodge sprints to the house. Touchdown. Ballgame. 36-30 Falcons. What a football game. Who, and both of these teams won this game a couple times- Yeah... each.
11:06
Uh, Cousins 42 of 58 for a Falcons franchise record 509 yards, four touchdowns, one pick, on the night that Matt Ryan was celebrated in Atlanta. Mm-hmm. By the way, what's the equivalent of Matt Ryan getting celebrated?
11:20
Like, Philip Rivers getting celebrated in San Diego or Carson Palmer getting celebrated in Cincinnati? Oh, like Matt Ryan's b- bigger than that. Slightly. Like, slightly, yes. Yeah. London 12 for 154 and a touch.
11:33
Mooney nine for 105 and two touchdowns. 550 total yards for the Atlanta Falcons. What a game. It was great to see, great to see an offensive game, Gil, but oh boy, those defenses sucked. Yeah.
11:44
I couldn't have been more wrong about that one. I got a tennis play on the way and Paul Carr on the Premier League next on our Numbers Game at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back on a Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino [laughs] downtown Las Vegas. What did you say, there's Matt Ryan haters on Twitter? Yeah. [laughs] Love that. But like, dude did get to a Super Bowl, right?
12:11
He did, but, like, didn't you, when you saw that they were doing a huge halftime thing for him, wasn't there a little part of you that's like, "Okay"? And he's, he was, he was a fi- he's one of the all-time very goods.
12:24
Yeah That's what he is. Yeah. I'm just, I don't know. Not everybody can have a Peyton Manning and a Tom Brady. No, that's true. They can't.
12:31
But if you're not a fan of that team and you see that, there is a little part of you that's like, "Uh, okay." I, I mean, the, yeah, I can't, I can't lie to you. Yeah. Yes, of course, I was watching that.
12:40
There was a part of me that did that, but... Um, while baseball and football was going on yesterday, and by the way, can, can we just put that Alonso home run into context? Yeah. This is, I, I was shocked to see this.
12:52
This from, um, I believe it was from, uh, Opta stats who did this.
12:56
This is the first time in the history of baseball that any player has hit a go-ahead home run while trailing in the ninth inning or later of a winner-take-all post-season game. That's a lot of qualifiers there, right?
13:11
Little, a slight data mining, but that's an unbelievable thing because you think about all the great home runs in the history of baseball.
13:17
Joe Carter, uh, for the Toronto Blue Jays to win the, to win the World Series, not a winner-take-all game. Mm. Um, and I'm not even sure they were behind. It might have been tied.
13:28
Uh, Bobby Thomson's shot heard 'round the world was actually the third game of a three-game series, but it was considered an extension of the regular season.
13:36
So Pete Alonso, in the history of the sport, the first player to hit a go-ahead home run while trailing in the ninth or later of a winner-take-all post-season game. That's amazing.
13:46
That's pretty nuts, especially since this was always the situation that we all laid out for our, for ourselves as ch- uh, as kids- As children... when we were in the batting cage or whatever, right?
13:54
It, it was a, well, forget the batting cage. When you were by yourself- Right, exactly... just pantomiming stuff, right? And you're like, "3- Alexander had to play [laughs]... 3-2 pitch, two away for the Orioles."
14:04
Right, I was always in an Orioles uniform.
14:06
Uh, okay, and then, uh, the biggest news, but beyond football and baseball, I think we all can agree, Iga Swiatek, world number one, has parted with her coach of three years, Kelly.
14:14
Uh, Tomasz Wik- uh, Wiktorowski, who, uh, those of us who are Iga fans and watched, anybody who watches tennis knows him to be a staple there. Never saying a word, always stoic.
14:23
For three years, she won, um, four of her five Grand Slams, um, with, pardon me, is it three of four or four of five? I lose count. So many.
14:33
Anyway, all but one of her slams, uh, with him, and so that's a big deal in tennis. Here's the- Well, what's the, uh, what's the, the hot goss? What happened?
14:40
Uh, J-Rod, who is our, who is our crack reporter on the subject- Okay...
14:43
'cause he's a huge Iga stan, I believe the kids call it, uh, he said that it is probably mutual, that, uh, Tomasz wanted to just kinda go home after, you know, going on tour for this many years, and also that Iga had said at some point, after three years, she will want a foreign coach- Mm...
15:00
to sort of step it up even further. Well, she probably needs a coach that can help her out better on hard courts, right? [laughs] Don't even start with me. [laughs] Don't even start.
15:08
By the way, uh, so at Tennis, uh, they're all at vsan.com/picks, every host, every guest, every sport. I went one and two in tennis last night.
15:16
They were all dogs, um, but the one was Karolina Muchova as a plus 170-ish dog. So if you're gonna go one and two, that's how you wanna go, and you also want it because we have her at plus 750 to win Beijing. Oh.
15:30
So that's huge now as she heads to the semifinals there. Uh, Chris Fallica joins us, everybody, "The Bear" from Fox Sports and the Emperor of The Bear Bets podcast.
15:38
Of course, you can see him on big noon Saturdays, tomorrow on Fox for college football coverage. How you doing, Chris? I, I, I'm doing well.
15:45
I'm just try, I'm trying to g- figure out a way to get to Seattle on Sunday for Jim Zorn Day- [laughs]... where they, where they take on the Giants. That's right. That's exactly right.
15:54
[laughs] Ah, Jim Zorn Day should be fun. Um, okay, before we get to college football, which is of course your bread and butter- Mm-hmm... uh, let's go through some other stuff 'cause you, you're betting other sports.
16:04
First of all, you do have some soccer you wanted to share. Yeah, I, I got a couple of matches today. Uh, Serie A, Leeds, or I'm sorry, Serie A, Serie A's Napoli and, uh, Como. Como just r- recently promoted.
16:18
And Napoli had a terrible year last year after winning, uh, Serie A a couple of years ago. Uh, they, they seem to have gotten things right so far. So I, I like Napoli to win to nil, uh, i- in that one over Como.
16:30
And then, uh, in Championship League in, uh, in, uh, England, uh, Leeds-Sunderland under two and a half.
16:37
Leeds has had some difficulty, uh, scoring goals, uh, tremendously lately, uh, especially on the road against better competition. Sunderland right now are top of the table.
16:46
I think this will be a, uh, low-scoring, testy affair, so u- under two and a half, Leeds-Sunderland. I like a testy affair. What about the National Football League?
16:54
I figured I had to give a li- a little soccer right now, being that I'm taking Paul Car's spot. You are. A little flip. A little flip, John. Noted Liverpool hater, Paul Car.
17:01
[laughs] I- Does that mean we have to ask- I don't-... Paul about college football? I like guest on guest. Yes. Yeah, we do. I like guest on guest crimes. Uh- Does he, does he like KU this week plus three against ASU?
17:11
Yeah, we'll ask him. We'll find out. Yeah. Uh, how about the NFL? What do you have in the NFL? I, I, I d- I like s- the Niners in total over 27 and a half.
17:20
It's a, it's just a little bit higher, like 27 and a half, 28 and a half. But at 27 and a half you pay a little bit more, but you get the 28, uh, which is, is a, a positive for me.
17:30
Uh, the, the way the Niners offense has been going this year, even without Christian McCaffrey, and then losing George Kittle, and, and losing Samuel, and just, uh, having the guys that they've been missing, Jauan Jennings, all those guys stepping up.
17:43
Uh, Purdy's been the mainstay there. We saw the Cardinals defense, absolutely terrible, uh, last week getting blown out by the Commanders. Uh, week one against the Bills, they got exposed.
17:53
Uh, you would think professionals, uh, they'd want to be a, be a little bit more buttoned up this week.
17:58
But I think the way the Niners are playing right now, they got the short week, uh, coming up at C- against Seattle next week.
18:04
But I think the Niners put a, uh, a big number on the board maybe early, and then maybe pull back a little bit in the second half.
18:09
So that's why I don't wanna lay the seven and a half necessarily, but, but I think Niners team total over 27 and a half is pretty, pretty strong. Before you launch into all your college football plays- [laughs]...
18:17
just give me some context on Alabama-Georgia. Um, one of the great games in recent memory, one of the great games of all time. How do you, an expert in this, process it?
18:28
It was, it was one of the, the, the better games to... It, it turned into one of the better games i- in recent history- Right... for sure. I don't think anybody foresaw that coming, uh, in the first half.
18:37
But, um, my, my bigger picture takeaway from this is I think it's a great time to buy Georgia futures.
18:44
I, I've seen them as long as six and a half to one, and, and Will mentioned that at some point on Saturday night they got as long as, like, nine to one to win the national championship.
18:52
Because my, my grand takeaway is if you're Georgia, [clears throat] here's what it took for you to lose a game. You go on the road and play against a top five team.
19:01
You get a Heisman-level performance from Jalen Miller on the first half to take a 28-point lead.
19:06
After you played the worst half of football you've played in years with a total clunker from your Heisman candidate quarterback, Carson Beck. You're down 28, you come back, you take the lead,
19:18
and then it takes a mi- a miracle play by Ryan Williams and Jalen Miller to give them the lead back. And then, oh, by the way, Fama needs an interception in the end zone to hang on and win.
19:27
That's what it took for Georgia to lose a game. So if I'm a Georgia fan or a Georgia backer, you get... Yeah, losing sucked in that game.
19:34
You may not get to the SEC championship game potentially because of the tie breaks, the schedule, who knows? But they're gonna be in the playoff. And I, I think Georgia plus 650 is probably the, uh, the...
19:44
my biggest takeaway from that game. I, I, I, I bought more Georgia, uh, after that. I like that takeaway. Ryan Williams, iconic in that, in that touchdown. 17. Have you heard he's 17? Seven. I have not.
19:55
I have think, I think I've heard- [laughs]... Mike Tomlin has not had a losing season less than I've heard that. I've even heard it twice. Yeah. Uh- [laughs]... and, and you're right about Carson Beck.
20:03
Like, I mean, how many texts were being thrown around in the first half like, "This guy's a first round pick," and then he completely turned it around. It was awesome. All right, two minutes of mayhem.
20:11
Vomit them all out for us, Chris. [clears throat] All right. Let's, let's, let's, let's vomit them... Let's clear the throat first before we can get them all out. [clears throat] Clear my throat. Perfect.
20:19
Here, here we go. Clear my throat. I, I, I didn't wanna do my Mark Borchardt there. [laughs] I didn't wanna really scare anybody. But I'll, I'll, I'll just rip through the picks. Uh, Ohio State minus 18 against Iowa.
20:28
Uh, I get this number's come down I think from, like, 20 or so just because the Buckeyes have the game, uh, at Austin next week, the pen game of the year.
20:38
But, but Iowa, like, last three ranked teams they've played, they haven't scored. A- and I think this Ohio State defense will figure out it, it's still the Iowa offense that's primarily a r- a running r- offense.
20:49
Ohio State will get up. Iowa will not be equipped to come back. Uh, I lay the 18 with O- with Ohio State. Uh, I laid seven with Georgia Tech early in the week. It's nine, nine and a half now. I still like it.
21:01
Under 10, I would still play it. Uh, i- if you look at Duke, they're 5-0. They very easily could have lost at Northwestern in double overtime. A five-point win against UConn.
21:12
A, a miracle comeback last week against North Carolina. Eventually, things are gonna go the other way.
21:18
Tech was off last week against Louisville, where the box score really didn't, uh, do justice as to how close that game was. So I'd still lay anything under 10 w- with Georgia Tech against Duke. Uh, Minnesota plus nine.
21:31
I don't like this spot at all for USC. Uh, headed back to the, headed back east. You got Penn State at home, uh, next week. Lincoln Riley's teams have really struggled in the role, uh, of road favorite lately.
21:44
I mean, I brought this up before the Michigan game. In 2021, he's been a road favorite 14 times, or a favorite away from home 14 times. 3-11 against the number. So, like, they, they have not performed well.
21:55
Uh, the Gophers, I think, can do some things defensively to get pressure on Miller Moss. The li- the offensive line isn't great. Uh, you'll, you'll run the ball.
22:04
So it wouldn't surprise me at all if the, uh, uh, Minnesota keep this close. Row the boat Scott Uma. Uh, Indiana Northwestern under 42. They're, like, m- well, mostly 41 and a half out there, but 42s are available.
22:17
Gonna be very windy, uh, tomorrow in Chicago. Like, that whip, that wind is gonna whip in off of Lake Michigan, and if you've seen the image, I've been waiting for this all year.
22:25
So if you've seen the images of that stadium, it, it basically a practice field with no protection from the wind. Indiana is a p- a primarily pass-based offense.
22:35
I think that's gonna affect Curtis Rourke and that offense. Uh, I'm, I'm really curious to see what, where this goes, but, uh, I gotta put my money where my mouth was.
22:42
I said I've been waiting for this to be able to play, uh, an under all year, so I played under 42. Thank you, Chris. Yeah. Gotta run. Appreciate it, Chris. Gotta run. I'm sorry. NFL bets next.
22:51
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23:39
It's Gil Alexander, it is, uh, Kelly Bidlin alongside, and we get tweets. @BeatingTheBook, always appreciate it. Um, there's a bunch of Matt Ryan feedback on here. Should I go there?
23:49
I, I didn't think that was gonna be the spark, uh, today. [laughs] That was gonna be the spark topic. Uh, this is, let's see, Blue Hen Bill.
23:55
"The, the Ryan booing last night had to be 100% from the second half Super Bowl collapse orchestrated by Ryan.
24:01
I send Ryan a Christmas card yearly as I put my whole bankroll on the Pa- on the Patriots in the second half thinking my game bets were losers even though they ended up winning." Johnny Ringo, "Breaking news.
24:09
Starting October 11th, uh, A Numbers Game..." Oh, s- starting October 11th, pardon me. "A Numbers Game presents Fired Up Fridays with Kelly Bidlin and half a bottle of larceny- [laughs]... of Larceny Bourbon."
24:20
Is that 'cause I killed the other half, uh, on Thursday when we did the segment?
24:24
[laughs] dgensoutherngent, "Whether Matt Ryan belongs in the category of all-time great or all-time very good was perhaps the most debated topic in Atlanta sports talk radio"- Oh, wow- That's just- "...
24:32
for the better part of a decade." That's just a sad statement about Atlanta sports talk radio. Logic3227, "Atlanta celebrating Ryan is like the Cowboys celebrating Romo." Rick Ollier, "Having two TVs isn't a flex, Kelly.
24:45
What about your knowledge on falconry? Is that a big turn-on to the ladies?" [laughs] "Is that a big turn-on to the ladies? Asking for a friend." I don't think I've tried that one out yet.
24:54
[laughs] He, he added, "#Let'sRide." [laughs] Richard Palmer with a picture of those three. [laughs] Uh, let's see.
25:01
Uh, James, the J- the James Lloyd, "Asked my wife, uh, could I build a sports bar in our room over the garage. She said okay. Next day, a bar is built and five TVs are hanging." Boom. There we go. She's a unicorn.
25:10
She watches the game with me. That's a special lady right there. And Samuel Ciara says, "I hit Carol- uh, I hit Carolina Mahova +480, two to one sets exacta. Thank you, good sir." Wow. Nice. Good for you.
25:22
You have some Matt Ryan stats just to, just to make the Matt Ryan case? Uh, like I, I pulled up the just all-time leading passing yards, uh, list.
25:31
Oh, the, the, e- you check in on these things like once every couple years, and there are some, there are some names on here that just shock you.
25:37
Uh, Matt Ryan, just real quick, seventh all-time in the NFL in passing yards. Um, can I give you a quick quiz?
25:44
Do you think you could name the a- the leaders in pass, all ti- in career passing yards in the NF- that are currently in the NFL? Currently? Yeah. Let's, I'm gonna go, let's go top five. Let's see how many you can get.
25:55
Um- Sorry, I'm just springing this on you now... Well, Aaron Rogers' gotta be up there. Aaron Rogers is number one. Of, of the current quarterbacks, yes.
26:02
I'm just trying to think of, like, who are veteran quarterbacks around the league. Um, Mahomes is not, I'm guessing, or is he? No, he's not. Yeah, not, probably not. Um, Dak? He is 59. Is Dak up there?
26:14
Dak is ahead of Mahomes, which is a little surprising- Yeah... but not top five. Russell Wilson's gotta be up there. Russell Wilson is number four. Number four all-time or four active? Four, four on the active.
26:25
On the active. Yes. Uh, so who am I missing- So there are two-... two and three? There are two between- Go on... Rogers and Wilson. Kirk Cousins? No, he's right below Kirk Cousins. He's number five.
26:35
Um- I'm sorry, he's right below R- Russell Wilson... right below Wilson. Oh, Stafford, uh, obviously. Stafford is number two. Yeah, Stafford is number two, and then three is- This one's almost unfair. Oh, it's unfair?
26:45
Your Comeback Player of the Year. Oh, Flacco. [laughs] That is unfair. That's unfair. Okay. That was pretty good. By the way, 35th all-time, you said this to me off air. Yeah.
26:55
He- 35th all-time in passing yardage, Ryan Tannehill That's impossible to believe. Impossible to believe, right? Wow. Okay. Uh, couple more, couple more tweets here. This is from, uh, D Lu- oh, I'll read this one.
27:08
This is Steve Rodriguez. Uh, "Awesome stuff again," this i- oh, this is about Crack yesterday. Said, "Awesome stuff again on the show talking about learning forever.
27:16
As a former high school football, baseball coach and teacher in Nevada, it sure hits home to me.
27:20
One of my all-time famous quotes by John Wooden encapsul- uh, encapsulates this, 'Learn like you will live forever and live like you will die tomorrow.'
27:27
You guys are great, and thank you for all the pro tips, not only about beating the book, but on life as well." Thank you, Steve. Uh, Crack and I have a great time on this, on the second hour on, on Thursdays.
27:35
So much fun. And this is, uh, D Lu, bottom 10% on, uh, on OF. He says, uh, "Philosophical question: Can a Plinko ending be a bad beat since it's Pl- since its Plinko-ness means it's down to luck, not handicapping?"
27:47
No, I, I texted, I texted a buddy, uh, end of third quarter. The, I said, "The, the defense has been so bad, this is whoever has ball last." That's exactly what it was. Complete Plinko. Complete Plinko.
27:59
Um, oh, and then last thing, uh, teasers and parlays. It, it can't be said enough, but the second hour on Thursdays for A and G, one of the best parts of the week. Uh, Gil, Bill, you guys always knock it out of the park.
28:08
Thank you, teasers and parlays. Um, wanna give our, uh, NFL plays for the week? Yeah. Yes? No? Let's do it. Okay. Let's roll it.
28:16
Um, I ended up, remember on, on guessing lines, whenever I like too many, I'm always worried. I'm like, "Oh, no." Th- this is a rare week- "No, no"... where Gil has more NFL bets in the hopper than I do.
28:28
I'm like, "I like way too many of these." Um, I like the Vikings in London. Vikings two and a half point favorites. This is a Megapod pick as well.
28:36
Um, I just feel like they are a better football team than the New York Jets. I asked Zach Cohen yesterday on the show how he, how his handicapping brain sort of interprets trips to London.
28:47
Does it equal the playing field between teams? Do you not hold it into consideration? I don't. I don't think it really, uh, makes a difference. By the way, ATS numbers are pretty even between- Mm-hmm...
28:59
favorites and dogs. Uh, Vikings, two and a half point favorites. I took the Vikings. I think they're a better football team. I don't think the Jets deserve this kind of respect at this point.
29:07
I don't think I've seen anything that merits this at all from them. Yeah, we're a little oppo here. I, I had the Jets tied into a teaser from with the Bucs last night. I, I'm ki- I hear what you're saying, though.
29:17
I'm kind of banking on some regression from St- so at, at some point from Minnesota and the Jets to look a little bit, uh, a little bit better. We didn't really get a chance to talk about it yesterday, though.
29:26
I do think one of the few things that I still take some, uh, you, you know, take into account with these London games is, 'cause we heard it from Mike Pritchard on this show multiple times, we heard it from other past players, it is the getting over there early and acclimating.
29:39
Right. That's something that I still kind of, I, I still kind of believe in.
29:43
You know, even whether the numbers recently have shown that or not, I think one of the other ones about the game this week you're gonna hear a lot about just be careful is the weather's supposed to be [laughs] like e- like real bad, like rain and wind.
29:56
But, you know, it's the, it's the soccer stadiums. So you're not a full dome, but you're covered up until, like, the little field cutout up top, right? It's like SoFi. So you're kind of like- Yeah...
30:06
it w- kind, like, exactly. Yeah. Kind of like SoFi. Right. So you kind of don't really know how the wind's gonna, uh, react in that. Will there be crosswinds or? Right. I have no idea, or swirling winds?
30:15
Like, I don't know. Remember that debate I got with- [laughs]... with Lombardi on air? He was telling me about the, the direction the winds were going. Uh, Texans, pick 'em. I got 'em over the Bills.
30:25
I know Bills fans, um, I thought this was a little disrespectful to the Texans that it's, that they're not getting any points here. Give me the Texans. I know, now these next two are like Squareville.
30:34
Um, everybody talking about how, oh, the Commanders, this is an overreaction to the Commanders, and that the Browns' defense will be a step up, and I think they are a step up.
30:43
I agree with that, but it's an incremental step up. And, and listen, I, I will say this about the Browns That pick that Watson threw went right off Amari Cooper's chest.
30:52
We talked about this on the Megapod yesterday with Cleve, uh, Cleve TA. That holding call was phantom on Cleveland when they should've had the go-ahead touchdown, and they missed an extra point.
31:01
So- What was the, the fourth down conversion, too? Or, you know, what was it, where Watson threw that perfect pass, what was that, a couple weeks ago, and McMillan drops it right, right off his chest?
31:09
So the, Cleveland could... Yeah. The, the perception of Cleveland could be a lot better than it is. Um, but it's kinda tough to beat teams that you can't get off a field very often.
31:20
And until we see someone do that, uh, I'm going with the Commodores. Yep. Minus three on that. And then here's the one that is the squareville pick of the week. And I just keep getting square on these.
31:28
I'm taking the Packers on the road, minus three. I just think they're better. Mm-hmm. I think the Pa- I'm really high on the Packers.
31:34
I think they are a really good football team, and I know Stafford can work his magic a- and do things. I'm prepared to lose it, but I'm going with my instincts on guessing lines, and those are my four.
31:44
By the way, I have a fifth. I love the Saints plus the points on Monday night, but we'll talk about that, I guess, on Monday. Yes. I thought I slipped that one in there. No. No. Apparently not.
31:53
[laughs] Somehow it didn't make the screen. Yeah, it didn't make the screen somehow. Yeah, that's right. Um, yeah, the, uh, so Texans- Just, just because Kansas City doesn't blow out anybody. Yeah, the, yeah. Yeah.
32:02
I'm, so I'm waiting to see... I'm glad you brought, glad you brought that up anyways. I'm gonna, I'm, I know six has popped at some point.
32:08
I'm waiting to see if another one, uh, hits here before, so I, so I can jump on that six there. Other one I'm waiting for, Texans. We talked about on guessing lines. I like that side, too.
32:17
I'm waiting to see if a one and a half pops, and I can just tease that up. I think if, if you get that in a teaser position, I think that's an excellent spot. So agree with you on those.
32:26
I am on the Commanders, uh, as well. I think this has been very interesting, especially listening to, uh, Drew and Andy, um, on my way in this morning on their deep dive. I, I think it's a very good...
32:36
You and I have these conversations off-air a lot. I think this game is a great example of the, you know, some of the real sharp guys we expe- respect with their power ratings and stuff, like a Drew Dincic, right?
32:47
This is the kinda time in the season where we have, okay, the priors, how much are you pulling from your priors still, and how much have you needed to adjust from what you've seen four weeks in?
32:56
And even Drew admitted that he's downgraded the, the Browns more than any team in the NFL, and he's upgraded the Commanders more than any team in the NFL, and he still can't get to this number.
33:06
We, we had this talk on, on the Megapod yesterday with Cleve, and my response was, "I stick with my priors on some of these, like Baltimore over Buffalo- Yeah... on Sunday night, but on others you have to adjust."
33:17
Oh, I think, well, and I think the, and, and Drew and Andy brought this up, that the randomness of a rookie quarterback, I think that makes that a little bit, uh, uh, like, you have to account for that, right? Yeah.
33:26
So Commanders, and then I played the Bears. Speaking of q- square sides, I feel like that's a square side. I, Panthers are gonna come back to earth at some point.
33:33
Though there's been nothing random about Jayden Daniels thus far. Not even close. Nothing rando at all. We'll come back. Jason Weingarten will join us. Fezzik still to come, Dr. Bob.
33:41
It's a numbers game at VSIN, V Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSIN, the sports betting network. A numbers game, un juego
33:59
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34:06
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34:13
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34:20
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34:32
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bilin, it's the Numbers Game. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Uh, the show would be nothing without you.
34:42
I mean, something without you, but it would be really diminished- [laughs]... without you. It'd be different, yes. I don't wanna say it would be nothing without you. You get what I'm saying.
34:48
[laughs] I always appreciate the feedback, for goodness sake. By the way, nice DJ, uh, Cool reference you had earlier- Mm... when you said, "Let me clear my throat." Mm-hmm. I was, I was very proud of you. Thank you.
34:57
Thank you. Yeah, well done. Ryan Hyatt Media. Oh, this is about Crack yesterday, too. He said, "The last segment of a Numbers Game with Bill Krackomberger was some of the most honest, raw radio you'll ever hear.
35:07
Must listen. Great stuff, guys." I'll probably put out a clip on that today. Mm-hmm. Uh, this from T... Oh, this is Tony George. I know Tony George. T George Sports, he says, "This is the mecca.
35:16
This lineup today is the mecca of sports betting, bar none." Thank you, Tony. Appreciate that. Uh, this is from, uh, AK Parlay All Day.
35:25
Oh, uh, so I had asked a question because that, uh, the Plinko-ness to that game last night.
35:30
I had asked the question on Twitter, [clears throat] which was the, which was the, was the worst bad beat, um, on the whole, you know, this, in terms of the primetime games this week.
35:40
Was it that, or was it that wacky ending to the, uh, Titans and Dolphins game?
35:44
And so, uh, AK Parlay All Day decides to, uh, decided to go off that choice, and he says, "Mahomes rushing yards prop versus Atlanta was the Mount Rushmore bad beat.
35:53
To lose 13 yards rush on three consecutive plays was painful to watch. Had tickets on both, by the way." Mahomes, of course, has done this before. Did it in the Super Bowl.
36:00
Jason H11, uh, "Another great Megapod, by the way. Todd Wishnev almost insufferable when he's leading in the picks, but we wouldn't want it any other way." [laughs] "Yinzer is leading, and man, is he milking it."
36:11
That's great. [laughs] I've led for two years, and I haven't even, like, a fraction of the smack talk that that kid's doing. He's up of, for four weeks. Man, step it up. Big Stone Heart, "That was awesome."
36:21
[laughs] Quote, "The only thing I got out of that was you bring women home," unquote. [laughs] Uh, there is no end to the amusement that Kelly B- Bidlan gives me. None.
36:30
Uh, Edward Lefevre, "Oh, uh, Gil, I have Paula 25 to win Beijing. Vamos." When I was talking about our Mohova picks,
36:38
I, uh, I neglected to mention that I have, in the same way that we had Mohova, I gave this out the day before, I am on Paula Badosa as well. I gave it out at vsin.com/picks last night.
36:48
Uh, Paula Badosa taking on Coco Gauff, and I'm on Badosa tonight, minus 104 against the American, Cori Coco Gauff. Are you, you, you- So a tennis play as well... you and Zach still actively, uh, fading Coco?
37:01
I don't know what Zach's doing, but, uh, Coco's, Coco's improved a little bit this year- Okay... from where she was. Not quite back at last year's level, but, but Dosa's just having a great, fabulous- Bad Osa.
37:12
Oh, bad Osa is right, if you know what I mean. Jason Weingarten joins us from under a cloud of smoke in Southern Cali. You can follow him on Twitter at Spreadapedia. What's happening, Jason? Good morning. How's it going?
37:25
It's going very well. How great was that finish last night? Which one, the, the Falcons or the Mets? Well, I was, I was referring to the Mets when I'm talking to you. How was that one?
37:35
Uh, I actually, I missed the, uh, the ninth inning 'cause my bet yesterday was only an F5 bet, so- Oh... I, I turned it off. I, I had to get in the car and drive across town, so I missed it.
37:48
I can't, I can't believe it, actually. I'm, I'm 0 for 2 in missing dramatic finishes this week in baseball. What, which was the other one, the Lindor homer? Yeah, I missed, uh- Oh...
37:58
I missed the game one of the double header. I was out walking my dog, so what a, what a way to, to, to do that. [laughs] It seems like poor, poor scheduling on your part, I'm not gonna lie. Little bit.
38:12
I mean, I, I purposely went out and walked my dogs 'cause I was like, "This game's too stressful. I gotta, I gotta go take a walk." But- Yeah... yesterday was a little bit of poor scheduling on my part. All right.
38:21
So here's the deal. We got the, uh, the four division series all set up now. They all begin tomorrow.
38:27
Uh, the two National League ones, right, the Phillies and the Mets, the Dodgers and the Padres, those, those on paper are epic.
38:35
Uh, I also love the matchups, not quite as epic maybe, but interesting in their own right in the American League, Guardians and Tigers, Yankees and Royals. Have you made any series bets? Let's start there.
38:46
Yeah, I made one. Uh, uh, Guardians minus 130. You think the magic carpet ride is over for the Tigers? They just don't have the pitching. Uh, this is a five-game series, not a, not a best of three.
39:00
And I mean, the, the, the Tigers have been playing great the last couple months, but there's, there's only so much they're gonna be able to get out of Trey Skubal.
39:08
And you saw the way they managed him in the wild card game. He threw like 88 pitches.
39:14
Um, they're not gonna throw him on short rest most likely in a, a division series, and sooner or later you're just drawing dead with your pitching.
39:23
I think that happens to a lot of teams, and I, I like the rested Guardians here. I think it's a, a short price. I think it's gonna be a good series.
39:32
I think the little, probably, probably not MLB's favorite, that there's at least gonna be one, uh, AL Central team in the, uh, A- A- AL, ALCS, but, you know, that's baseball.
39:45
That's, that's the way the cookie crumbles this year. I, listen, I, no, I love the Guardians, loved them in March, April, loved them in May. I have World Series matchups with them.
39:54
I have a World Series matchup with Detroit still alive too, but I have more with the Guardians.
39:57
So I don't say this as a, as a Guardians hater, but I do find that the, 'cause, 'cause your sentiment here about this, the Tigers' magic carpet ride, my words, being over is, is pretty common.
40:10
And I'm, I'm a little s- I, I'm a little interested in that because, I don't know, Skubal gets to pitch in two games. This, you know, no one ever accused the Guardians of having a great starting rotation, right?
40:22
This is, this feels to me like it's Skubal and a, and a solid bullpen, obviously the biggest mix-match bullpen there is, obviously bullpen on steroids, versus a Guardians team that has a great bullpen.
40:34
Um, obviously I'll take the Guardians lineup over the, uh, over that of the Tigers. But I, I just, I feel like the, uh, the proclamations of the Tigers' death is a bit premature, I guess.
40:46
Well, not saying that it's their death.
40:47
I'm just saying that, you know, Skubal's gonna pitch 90 pitches maybe in game one, and then you're gonna have to, you know, rely on the rest of that bullpen and the rest of that pitching staff to, to win you the games you need to win, and I'm just not confident that, you know, playoff baseball, the, the Tigers are gonna be able to, to do that this week.
41:07
Did you play any game ones tomorrow? Yeah, I bet the Dodgers, uh, Yamamoto, if, if he's relatively healthy and he's been getting stretched out the last couple starts.
41:18
I think minus 125 with Yamamoto and Ohtani in the lineup is a pretty good deal versus Build and Cease for the Dodgers at home to, to start this series. Obviously that's the series I'm most interested in.
41:31
Um, I have not fired a Kansas City bet against the Dodgers, uh, excuse me, against the Yankees yet. But around plus 180, I'm pretty interested in the Royals here. I think they're gonna be competitive against the Yankees.
41:43
Um, you know, if you had the, you asked me which team I thought, the Royals or the Tigers, gonna be more competitive, I'd probably say the, the Royals, honestly. I took the Royals in the series price.
41:53
Are you referring to the series price or a game one price? Uh, game one. I- Okay... I have not done a series price. Uh, I might.
42:01
I'm actually working on an article for VSiN, you know, with futures and MVPs and all, all that kind of stuff for, for the post season, so hopefully that's out today, maybe tomorrow at the latest.
42:13
Let's tap into that for a second because I think it's always interesting how we try to get ahead, and you try to get ahead of a possible MVP. Um, famously you and I had Corey Seager MVP one regular season.
42:25
He didn't get the MVP during the regular season, and then he mocked us terribly- Mm... by winning it in both the championship series and the, the World Series. Who, who would you like to get ahead of here?
42:37
Well, you know, you're always gonna have the problem with, uh, Ohtani being, being a favorite in a market like this, and obviously, you know, the, the top guys on each team are Francisco Lindor and Aaron Judge.
42:51
You're, you're not gonna get a ton of value trying to find a number on them, even with eight teams left. So, uh, for me, I'm, I'm going a little deeper.
43:00
I'm looking for guys that, that we know are gonna be impact players. Obviously, um, I'm gonna be a little bit of a homer and bet it's Jackie Merrill MVP if the Padres can advance a little farther.
43:12
I have a couple, you know, more obscure names, bullpen arms, some, some random guys that I'll, I'll highlight in the article.
43:21
But y- you're obviously, you know, you're looking for guys in the middle of the lineup that are gonna get a lot of at bats and could change the game. So, you know, the, the formula d- the formula doesn't change much.
43:31
You're always looking for the guys who are gonna get the most at bats, essentially. And we're talking championship series or World Series or both here? Both. Um, more, more likely World Series for me.
43:42
Um, I, I've not, yeah, I haven't, I haven't even thought about the championship series yet.
43:47
So and mostly, mostly I was thinking taking, uh, some, some of these World Series futures markets when they put them up, you know- Yeah... the two of them. It's, it's, I agree.
43:56
It's, it's an interesting thing to play too because you wanna get, obviously none of us know if the team itself, the team of these players are going to advance, but the object is obviously to get ahead of it, so it should correlate with your, with your series handicaps and just get ahead of a hu- what will be a huge drop in price, right?
44:13
Uh, if that player does get there, and so that's a, uh, a great market to sort of play. We do this in the NFL playoffs as well. Mm. But in baseball it's, uh, equally fascinating. Thank you, Jason, appreciate it.
44:22
Have a great weekend. You too. Have a great weekend, guys. Talk to you later. Jason Weingarten at Spreadapedia, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. We'll come back Football Friday.
44:31
Football first with Paul Carr next right here on The Numbers Game.
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