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Sep 10, 2025
A Numbers Game | September 10, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 10, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:11
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM Channel 158. However you're taking us in, we are grateful.
0:21
It is Gil Alexander and back, back in his chair, a triumphant return from an ailment- Triumphant... Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Kelly Bidlin. Thank you, Gil Alexander. It's great to be back. Uh- Let me guess, let me guess.
0:36
Syphilis. [laughs] Uh, no. [laughs] Oh, what was it? What, what, what was wrong with you? Uh, I don't know. I had a sinus infection, I guess is what we're going with, but, uh, just a high fever for a couple days.
0:47
It was really fun. Are we still contagious, or no? Yeah, I don't think so. Okay. Well, let's hope not. I don't, [laughs] I don't know. Let's- By the way, in your-... find out...
0:53
in your honor, paint inhalation has returned this morning. Ah, yeah. It was, I was like, "Man, what, are they playing this just for me?" And, uh- Just for you... Rob said, "No, it's been going on all week."
1:01
No, hasn't been this, it has not been this strong. Well, they're, they're like, they're like right behind us today. Yeah. Like, right behind us. It's not been this strong until today.
1:06
But thanks to you, Danny, Wyatt especially, uh, filling in the past couple days. Wyatt Tomchek was, was spectacular in, in your, uh, stead, as they say. He's got another segment coming up today.
1:17
Yeah, he- I, I didn't wanna blow out. Like, Danny and Wyatt playing this whole, like, survivor segment with him- [laughs]... and I'm like, "Dude, like, I don't wanna get in the way." Apparently Wyatt is an SEC survivor.
1:27
Who knew? So survivor for just SEC teams. Maybe we should have him come in and talk about it. Yeah. You know? I'm looking forward to it. Maybe we should. Uh, so Wy- now, we're not done with Wyatt yet.
1:36
By the way, maybe there's a wrestling survivor that he's in. I have no idea. Um, good to have you back though, man. Uh- It's good to be back...
1:40
as, as Patrick Snyder, uh, tweeted this morning on, on, uh, the old X, he says, uh, "Welcome back, Kelly. Does your tummy feel better?" My tummy was never a problem, actually. Yeah. It was never a problem.
1:49
Never a problem. Yeah. Well, glad to hear. Until, like, the past day where I just- You-... ate a ton... just last thing on it. You were so sick that you only watched 90 minutes of football this weekend.
1:58
I'm gonna go with, like, two hours on Sunday, and it was spread out. Like, I was just, like, in fever chills in bed- Oh my God... like, in and out of sleep.
2:05
I think I caught, like, six minutes at a time throughout the entire day on Sunday. Completely missed the end of the Bills-Ravens game. That, that's how we know you were leg- legit- Yeah... sick. Yeah.
2:13
That's all the football you watched. That was wild, yeah. And missed, and missed the end of that spectacular game, where you, and you had the Bills. I had the Bills, yeah. Wow. Re-watched it on Monday. It was great.
2:21
Yeah, great finish. [laughs] You watched, you, you watched [laughs] Monday. I like that as... I mean, come on, Josh Allen. Josh Allen, Gil. Josh Allen. Oh, don't make me go through it again.
2:30
What are we talking about here? Oh, you- There's a Greek god out there, for Christ's sake. [laughs] Oh, easy, buddy. Easy. Geez, come on, s- maybe crescendo, for God's sakes. Oh.
2:40
All right, on the show today, um, Will Whalen, Warren Wisniew, and Wederson. Oh, we almost got there. Greg Peterson was the last one. I want- I wanted the full W alliteration. I did this on purpose. You didn't- You-...
2:53
you didn't know that? Oh, that's what you did? No, no. Will Hill will join us here to talk, uh, all his sports bets, uh, momentarily, baseball, football. Greg Peterson, full day Major League slate.
3:03
He will have a bunch of Major League Baseball bets, uh, as is the case on every O- on every Wednesday, full slate, day, night.
3:09
And Greg being here, we love having Greg on a Wednesday as the, uh, boy, the playoff races just continue to heat up, though still no changes in any of the standings.
3:18
Every time you look up, it's still the same, but we'll see if that changes here.
3:21
We'll, we'll actually talk about the, uh, I wanna talk about tiebreakers here in the Major League Baseball playoff picture here momentarily. We'll also do, uh, Win Total Wednesdays.
3:28
Speaking of W's, got a lot of W's here. Win Total Wednesdays, uh, NFL Power rankings.
3:34
Uh, Nick Whalen, as I said, will join us, NFL player props, Warren Sharp a little later, and then Todd Wisniew to balance Warren Sharp out. Wisniew has some, some good topics.
3:42
By the way, we're doing the Mega Pot again on a Wednesday today. So week two, we're doing the Mega Pot after this with Chris Felica as our guest, Will Wisniew, and I.
3:50
Uh, but T- Todd will make an appearance here on a, on a Numbers Game, and he wants to talk about third quarter betting- Hmm... among other things. And then
3:57
I t- I sort of mentioned this yesterday, so I kind of have to, to, uh, what is it, to tie the bow on
4:03
this debate we had, uh, via text about, you know, the whole analytics thing where you go for, when you, when you cut a lead from 14 to eight, the proper thing is to go for two to cut it to six. That's one debate.
4:15
We started on this 10 to four to two debate Monday night with the Bears and the Vikings. Oh. And we, we are in complete opposite side.
4:22
Not me and W- Wisniew is the one in the middle, and I swayed him to my side, but Fezzik is on the other side of that. We'll get into all that.
4:28
Um, I wanna start with the Major League Baseball playoff picture, because, uh, again, last night the Giants beat the Diamondbacks in the National League. The Mets lose to the Phillies. Uh, the Reds also beat the Padres.
4:43
So it is getting super tight now in the National League, the American League even tighter. And so just wanted to, these are the playoff odds to make the playoffs and m- make misses right here.
4:54
Um, and I just wanna sort of explain for those who are considering bets, for those who have bets, just to sort of flesh out all you need to know with this. So this is, the, the teams at the top...
5:04
Well, no, it's not, not really at the top here. But let's, let's do the American League first, 'cause the American League is the easier one, right?
5:10
So the Mariners right now, uh, the Mariners have a, uh, a, a l- a small lead over the Rangers and the Guardians.
5:17
Specifically, they have a one-and-a-half-game lead over the Rangers and a two-and-a-half-game lead over the Guardians, okay?
5:24
That's the, that's the current standings for the third and final playoff position, or actually the sixth and final playoff position, the third and final wildcard position. Um, okay.
5:35
What you need to know is, first of all, remaining strength of schedule. The Mariners have the easiest remaining schedule of the three. By the way, the Mariners are also trying to win the, uh, the West as well.
5:46
They're only a, what are they, only a game behind the Astros now- Yeah... in the West. So this is just current this morning where this stands, right, where the Mariners have the third and final wildcard.
5:56
They have the easiest of the bunch. Guardians, and God, for God's sakes, I can't even believe I'm even talking about the Guardians on this.
6:03
Because the Guardians, listen, you're not even gonna be a part of this, remember. You're gonna go eight and 10 or worse the rest of the way, 'cause you're gonna go under your season win total.
6:10
I'm sick of you Sorry, just had a brief aside on the, on the Guardians. Uh, Rangers have the toughest of the remaining schedule. But here's what... And, and so Mariners are minus 550 to make the playoffs.
6:19
Remember, they have two ways to make it. They could also win the division or be a wildcard. That's why it's as high as it is.
6:27
The other reasons is it- it's as high as it is, is if this ends up in a tiebreaker for the wildcard, remember, there are no more games 163 or games 164.
6:41
Major League Baseball legislated this out of the sport couple years back, uh, few years back, I think it was. Maybe it was even two years. But it was in the last few years. And their- Two years...
6:51
their point in doing that, two years ago, their point in doing that was, "Hey, we don't want a division winner to have to wait."
6:59
Remember, r- se- uh, seeds one and two, or any division winner, um, in the previous format, they don't want the one and two seeds to have to wait extra days, right? You were good enough to be the one or two seeds.
7:11
You get the bye, but it would be unfair to those teams to wait extra days, and it just creates scheduling problems. So what did Major League Baseball do? They decided, "Hey, here's our way around it.
7:21
We're just gonna go to tiebreakers.
7:23
No more drama of game 163s," which sucks for fans because think how many just unbelievable moments had existed in those kinds of, you know, playoff win, uh, you know, win and get in, lose and you're out, uh, in your entire lifetime through the decades.
7:39
So again, Mariners are minus 550 'cause they have two ways of getting in, division or wildcard. Also because they have the easiest schedule of the bunch, and the, the real reason is they also win all the tiebreakers.
7:51
Uh, they've played the Rangers, remember, two division rivals. They've played them 13 times. Seattle won 10 of them. So Seattle wins tiebreakers against Texas, and they play Cleveland out of division total of six times.
8:04
They beat the Guardians four out of those six times. So Seattle wins all tiebreakers against these two teams. By the way, apologies to Royals fans and everybody else who's like, "What about us?"
8:12
Well, you're a little further back, so I didn't include you in this. Um, so Seattle wins all tiebreakers in the American League. Uh, and if there's a three-way tie, Seattle would win by having those advantages as well.
8:23
By the way, if it was a Texas-Cleveland tie, Texas has, is, is up on Cleveland three to nothing in the three games they've played. They still have three games left.
8:33
So Texas would just need to win one more of those to have the tiebreaker over Cleveland if Seattle wasn't involved. That's simple, actually. The National League is where it gets interesting.
8:42
The National League, again, this is for folks who are considering make-miss playoff bets for the teams involved. In the National League, the Mets losing yesterday.
8:50
Now, the Giants, the Giants who sold at the deadline, who are like, "Yeah, we're, we're putting on the rest of this season." Uh, no, we're not. Turned out they weren't. Giants two games back
9:04
f- and the Reds three games back. Of those three teams, the Giants have by far the easiest schedule, and that even includes seven games against the Dodgers.
9:14
But the rest of it, uh, aggregate, makes them have the, uh, 482 remaining strength of schedule, uh, opposing winning percentage, whereas the Mets and Reds have top 10 hardest remaining schedules.
9:26
Now, the Mets are minus 420 to make the playoffs. The Giants are plus 575. The Reds are plus 820.
9:34
Now, that's an interesting number because while the Giants are two games behind the Mets in the standings and the Reds are three games behind, really they are both three games behind, and the reason for that is the Mets win the tiebreaker against the Giants.
9:50
They beat the Giants four out of six times. Conversely, the Reds beat the Mets four out of six times, so they would win a tiebreaker with the Mets, right?
10:00
So that's why really de facto, both the Giants and Reds are three games back. In other words, the Giants would have to clear the Mets. That's why the two games in the standings is a little misleading.
10:10
Now, if it's a Giants-Reds tie, they split their season series of six, and then you know what it goes to, Kelly? It goes to the dumbest tiebreaker ever created in sports. No, I don't know.
10:21
There's a lot of dumb tiebreakers in sports, Sean. No, no, this one's dumb 'cause it makes no sense. It's intra, not inter, intra-division record. Remember intramural sports? Yeah. That means within.
10:33
That means it's the Giants' NL West record against the Reds' NL Central record. Sure, that shouldn't matter. [laughs] It's so dumb. The Giants currently 18 and 20 against NL West opponents.
10:47
The Reds slightly worse, 17 and 22 against NL Central opponents.
10:51
So right now, the Giants would own that tiebreaker, but the Giants have 14 games left in division, and the Reds have 13 games left in division, so we don't know what that's gonna come to. Here's the bottom line.
11:01
If it turns out to be a three-way tie, and let's say the Giants win the tiebreaker against the Reds, that way you will have a tiebreaker where nobody dominates the other, right?
11:10
Mets over Giants, Giants over Reds, Reds over Mets. In a three-way tie situation, the Giants would be the one eliminated because then you would go to what's the record between the three of them?
11:21
So the Giants basically have to clear everybody. But if it is a Reds-Met, and then it would go to Reds-Mets, and the Reds would get in because they beat the Mets four out of six times.
11:31
So what I'm saying here is if there is a bet, maybe the Reds plus 820 is a consideration despite the harder schedule.
11:40
I'm not betting it, just full disclosure, but that's how this shakes out and y- what you need to know tiebreaker-wise when considering these bets. Will Hill on the other side.
11:49
It's a numbers game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The NFL season officially underway, and the edge goes to those with the best data.
12:04
VSiN Pro delivers real-time draftKings to circuit betting splits, so you can see where the public and sharps are putting their money.
12:10
And in an email recapping all the daily best bets from our show hosts and guests, you'll get that as well. 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app.
12:17
Hell, add all of that, and exclusive pro tools at vsin.com, and you got everything you need to stay ahead all season. Sign up now for just $9.99 or save 50% with an annual subscription. Visit vsin.com/subscribe today.
12:29
That's vsin.com/subscribe. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Y'all are the best. Appreciate it. Uh, this is from, uh, let's start with this one.
12:38
This is from KB Sports Cards Who says, "I always appreciate hearing your survivor thought process, Gil. Super helpful. Thank you for sharing." Oh, yeah. Well, thank you, uh, KB Sports Cards.
12:47
By the way, I miss, I miss the old baseball card shop. I miss those. Um- Oh, they're so great to go into. There's one by my place.
12:52
I go into it every once in a while When I see one, uh, I have mo- I have time, I'm the happiest guy in the world. There i- Yeah...
12:56
there is one where, where I drop off my dry cleaning, and I would say one out of every three or four times I'm at dry cleaners, I'm like, "Let me go take 10 minutes to look in there." Yeah, yeah.
13:05
Um- And the guy totally knows I'm not buying anything. Like, I just, I just wanna look at stuff. Thank you for that, KB Sports Cards.
13:10
I, I, we went through a survivor deep dive, Wide and I, yesterday, and I gave the four teams of the biggest spreads that I'm not considering, and the four that I am. I'll retweet that, uh, again today on social.
13:20
Uh, Jesse Welch, "Jalen Carter has drifted out to 40 to one for Defensive Player of the Year. I know he'll be one game behind everyone else, but wasn't he one of the short shots preseason? Give me some of that."
13:30
Yeah, 12, 18, something like that, right? Yeah, Defensive Player of the Year's so hard with the usual suspects at the top though, right? With Miles Garrett doing big things on Sunday also. Mm-hmm.
13:40
Um, Fred Currier, "Glad you're back, Kelly. Huge." Vegas Valkis, "Best start to a numbers game ever. Let me guess, syphilis?" [laughs] Quoting me. Mikey P., "Welcome back, Kelly. Glad to hear you're feeling better.
13:50
Now let's talk about NFL Comeback Player of the Year." Too soon? Fired up. I'm fired up already. And K- But we'll, we'll hit that tomorrow or Friday. Here's a Twitter handle for you, Kenny Dillingham Sexual.
14:00
He says- Yeah... "How many Arietta-esque performances does King Cade Horton need before he's the runaway NL Rookie of the Year?
14:06
Another gem last night against Drake Baldwin and the Braves, who's now 0 and five against Hu- uh, Horton on the year."
14:11
By the way, Michael Montesano on his feet clapping to that tweet, 'cause he's got Horton at a nice, uh, Horton at a nice number. Uh, let's talk to Will Hill. Will joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
14:20
You can follow him on Twitter at not The Will Hill, that's two Es in The.
14:24
He is not only here with us and all over the network, recent host of course, but he has his own podcast called Shoulda Bet More, and is part of Chris Felica's Best Bets empire, or Bare Bets empire, I should say, over there at Fox Sports.
14:37
How you doing, Will? Gilly, Kelly, what's going on, guys? What's happening? Not a mucho. What's happening? Uh, did you go through, did you, uh, listen to that, uh, painstaking tiebreaker talk I just had with everybody?
14:49
I did, uh, and you know where I stand, and I've become a broken record on this. We were, we were texting about this last night. It just, it makes me so sad that we don't have tiebreaker games anymore, the Game 163.
14:58
I used to just root, when I didn't have a rooting interest in the teams, I would just root for it to align so these teams would be tied- Yes...
15:04
or these teams would be tied so we'd have something to watch on, like, a Monday afternoon- [laughs]... a Game 163. It's so true.
15:08
It was just so perfect because you play so many baseball games, it's just such a natural and dramatic way to conclude the tie. Where it's like, all right, one game, uh, winner takes all.
15:18
I remember, like, a Mariners-Angels game where the Mariners came from way back in '95, ended up beating my Yankees, which devastated me. Uh, yeah, there's a, a Twins-Tigers game that went to, like, 12 or 13 innings.
15:27
Like, it's just so dramatic and so much fun. And now that we settle on tiebreakers, it's so bad for the sport. But yes, I, I am looking forward to the last couple weeks here.
15:33
I believe you called it a crime against humanity that we don't have these 163s. I believe that was, you went that far, yeah.
15:39
Um- And that's an understatement [laughs] It's, [laughs] and it's an understatement, that's right. You couldn't fully express your feelings on it. Uh, where did you land?
15:46
Full day of baseball, a lot of playoff implications. Where did you land today? Uh, I played Boston on the money line.
15:52
They got this kid Tolle going, who we haven't seen much, but, uh, lefty, 99th percentile in extension on a, on Baseball Savant, really elite velocity. So his numbers haven't been great, but it's only eight innings.
16:04
I think the Red Sox will score runs in that ballpark, and I think, uh, this kid will pitch a decent game here. So minus a $1.30, $1.20-ish on, uh, on Profit X, if you wanna go that route. Uh, I played Boston.
16:14
I do think, uh, I know Mark Borcherd thinks the Yankees are gonna catch Toronto and be the one seed. That took a big hit last night- Yes, it did... because you're at the point of the season- Yep...
16:22
you can make up two or three games. You can say, "I just make up a game today. I make up a game next week."
16:27
You don't have that much time, you don't have that much wiggle room to go backwards, and the Yankees went backwards last night, and now they're down three. They don't have the tiebreaker.
16:33
I think if anyone's gonna catch Toronto, it would be Boston, because they have games head-to-head, uh, at least coming up. So I think T- Toronto's probably gonna win that division.
16:41
But I do like, uh, I, I do like Boston today, and I played, uh, Orioles-Pirates first three under two and a half. You gotta lay some juice. It's $1.50 or so, but it's Skenes against, uh, Wells.
16:53
Wells working ba- uh, working back from an injury, but he's pitched pretty well in the minors. Skenes, we know how good he is. So under two and a half first three in Orioles-Pirates, and Red Sox on the money line.
17:01
Are you aware of the historical implications of what happened to the Yankees last night, by the way?
17:05
Uh, Fernando Cruz and Mark Leiter Jr., they made franchise history, uh, by becoming the first two pitchers in history last night to each allow, or first two pitchers in Yankees history, to each allow four or more runs without recording an out in the same game, uh, losing 12 to two to the Tigers last night.
17:22
Uh, it all happened in the seventh inning, as you know, Cruz allowing five runs, Leiter Jr. allowing four.
17:28
Uh, it was just the second time in the last 75 years that any MLB team, any Major League Baseball team, had two such relievers. Unbelievable. That's what makes baseball so great.
17:40
I mean, you could watch so many games and still see things you've never seen or, uh, you know, y- y- you come across something like that. It's just remarkable.
17:46
And the Yankees bullpen, I know the guys have talent, and all the guys, they, they got at the deadline, and even Devin Williams, and it, just there, there's something about Boone and the bullpen and those guys that you just don't trust.
17:56
So they're gonna be fascinating here once the playoffs come around. All right. Let's go to football. Let's start in the NFL. What do you like week two?
18:01
Without giving away all your Megapod picks, what do you, what do you like? Yeah, I don't know how you are. I, I'm sure y- I have a feeling you probably know your three picks.
18:08
I don't know my three- I, I already made three-... uh, Megapod picks yet... but I don't love 'em. Let's put it that way. Yeah. I, I don't love the board here.
18:15
I, um, the one side I, I already played, and I'll, it'll probably be one of my picks, is Jacksonville plus the three and a half, just because I watched a lot of, uh, Cincy-Cleveland.
18:26
I had Cleveland in one of the, uh, I think in the millions. Uh, Cleveland sh- uh, as we all know, should have won that game. It's not just the yardage and the yards per play, all that stuff.
18:35
Judy and Fanning dropped a third and five and fourth and five on back-to-back plays. When they were driving, they left points on the board there. They left points on the board with the kicker.
18:43
Cincy's struggles early in the season are well-documented. Uh, I like getting the hook there. So I think Jacksonville Keeps it close. And, um, your Commanders against the Packers. H- how should I...
18:54
People get mad at me when I talk about, uh, the Packers angles of them getting the ball first. So I'll just say Washington in the third quarter getting a half a point might be a good bet. Mm.
19:02
I gave up Packers first first down minus 137 yesterday on my pod. It's up to minus 170, so that's probably out of range, but Packers probably going to start with the ball.
19:11
I think that secret is starting to get out a little bit. Uh, but there's other ways to play that first quarter props. Uh, I don't think it's completely, you know, priced in properly.
19:18
So Packers to do well early in the first quarter, Washington third quarter plus a half a point is, uh, is something that I think is worth a bet. And, uh, I'll give you a future, too.
19:27
I had a Jaxson Dart 22 to one Offensive Rookie of the Year, just because I think it's sooner rather than later that they're gonna announce he's the starter.
19:35
And once that happens, that price probably goes from 22 to 1 to, I don't know, 8, 8 to 1, 10 to 1 just 'cause he's a quarterback.
19:42
He's in, he's the New York Giants, so that market, I mean, we saw it with Daboll a few years ago. It was a close Coach of the Year race, and you know what? The New York market matters.
19:49
You're not gonna fly under the radar in New York with the Giants.
19:51
I think Dart just getting ahead of the number there with a guy who's probably gonna be the starting quarterback for the New York Giants soon at 20 to one, uh, 22 to 1 is not a bad way to approach it.
19:59
Yeah, the, uh, you know, it's, it's interesting with, uh, with Green Bay, first of all. Let's go back to that.
20:05
What you were saying with Green Bay is they are one of the rare teams now that elect to receive when they win the coin toss at the beginning of the game. Is that what- Yes. Yes. Yes.
20:15
Most teams defer now, but they're one of the rare ones that still receive. So in either case, wherever the coin lands, chances are Green Bay gets the ball first, Washington gets it second.
20:25
Um, by the way, also on your Jaguars pick, did you see, uh, Aaron Schatz's top five DVOA after week one? Take this for what it's worth, everybody, analytics after week one. Washington is your number one DVOA team.
20:38
Here's where it contextualizes a little bit. Indianapolis two, Green Bay three, Jacksonville, who you just picked, four, and then Denver five. Those are your top five DVOAs [laughs] after week one anyway.
20:49
That Washington number one, is that number one in the league or number one of all time? Uh, [laughs] that's a great- Number one in Gilmore... that's a great question. Just number one for week one.
20:58
[laughs] But it is a great question, 'cause they have the '91 Skins. I don't know if you know or if I've ever mentioned the '91 Skins on this show before. Uh, anything college football-wise?
21:07
Uh, yeah, I like Vandy plus the points against South Carolina. I think five and a half is, uh, is, is still the number.
21:12
Diego Pavia, uh, since joining Vandy, 10 games as a dog, eight and two against the spread, five outright wins. And even though it's early in the season, these teams have a common opponent.
21:21
Vandy just went to Virginia Tech and out-gained them by about 250 yards, won the second half 34 to nothing.
21:27
Uh, we all watched that Virginia Tech/South Carolina game Labor Day weekend on the Sunday, where Virginia Tech out-gained them, could have beat them, you know, punt return, dropped some passes, so.
21:36
And that was on a neutral field, so, uh, I like the idea of getting five and a half here.
21:40
I liked the South Carolina team last year, but they had three picks, uh, three players on their defense go in the top 49 of the draft. They lost five guys to the NFL. I don't think it's the same team.
21:49
Uh, Vandy and, uh, and Pavia have been good as a dog, so I think this is more of a field goal game. I like Vandy plus the points. Who you feeling for Heisman right now?
21:57
I know everybody in the Bay Area likes Beck and likes Miami. Uh, it, it's so early, but here, I, I wouldn't be betting the favorite, I'll put it that way. Yeah, uh, as a, as a broader strategy. Uh, all right. Yeah.
22:07
And biggest, and biggest thing that happened in week one real briefly that went completely counter to your preseason thought was? I didn't think J.J.
22:16
McCarthy was gonna be a Hall of Famer, which he's clearly going to be, so that would probably be number one. Oh, I stepped, I [laughs] stepped right into that punch. I dropped my left hand. Thank you. Thank you.
22:24
I, I just got crushed on the chin. Uh, thank you, Will, appreciate it as always. Will Hill on the Megapod later today, don't forget. @NotTheWillHill on Twitter. Should'a Bet More, the name of his podcast.
22:36
You ever check out his podcast, Shoulda Bet More? Oh, yes. I've even been on it once or twice. Once. [laughs] Once or twice. A Kelly Pimm appearance has happened. Not only am I a client, I actually own the company.
22:44
[laughs] Kelly Pimm coming back on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:16
You can also get free bets for referrals and contests. You're always getting extra value at playbracco.com. That's B-R-A-C-C-O, Bracco. You can say it that way. That's how you'll remember it. I like it.
23:28
Instead of Bracco, you'll be like, "Bracco," and then you'll remember it's B-R-A-C-C-O. See? Minus 103, minus 103. There you go. Nothing wrong with that ever. No, not at all. That's for show.
23:37
Uh, we get tweets at Betting the Book. Buddhist Man, "I'm more interested in hearing Kelly's survivor thoughts, not for the contest, but for his life in general after his prolonged illness." [laughs] Judd O'Connor.
23:48
Oh, man. Looking at some d- oh, this is interesting.
23:50
Judd O'Connor says, "Looking at some division exact parlays, NFC East and AFC East or NFC North, seems to have pretty robust numbers with the Giants, Dolphins, and Bears, seem to be the worst in their respective divisions.
24:01
Picking the order right at 52 to 1 seems to be a no-brainer." Let me explain what he's doing. So he essentially is, is doing a, apparently they let you parlay these at certain spots, right?
24:10
So he's taking the AFC East after one week, and he's saying, "Okay, that looks like it's gonna be Bills, Jets, Patriots, Dolphins," and he's parlaying it with both the NFC North, which after one week he's like, "Oh, that's gonna be Packers, Vikings, Lions, Bears."
24:25
Or the other one he did is he paired the, uh, the AFC East, Bills, Jets, Pats, Dolphins with NFC East, Eagles, Commanders, Cowboys, Giants, he figures, and he's getting big payouts on them. So that's his strategy.
24:37
You're looking at- Pretty interesting... exact order finishes and parlaying them together with divisions after one week of NFL football? Eh. I, I would be careful with that. Yeah.
24:46
I would be care- I don't, I don't know, I don't know how much you did. I'm just saying what he's doing. I'm sure you did some overreaction stuff, uh, yesterday and today. Um- Or yesterday and Monday...
24:51
I'm just reading the tweet. Just reading the tweet. I'd be careful with that one.
24:54
Dan Gro- Dan Groeschel I wish the Major Le- I wish Major League Baseball would use the tiebreakers to determine who gets home field for Game 163. There aren't many ph- phrases in sports more special than Game 163.
25:05
Totally with you, Dan.
25:06
Matthew Mayberry, "Since Scott Hansen almost had an orgasm [laughs] Sunday when he thought Myles Garrett had three sacks on three consecutive snaps, three sacks on three consecutive snaps, the Defensive Player of the Year is already over if you ask Scotty.
25:18
My God, calm down, bro." Uh, Matthew, that was, uh, that's hilarious because I, I mentioned when he first brought up Hawk Eye being used, I think it was the Broncos-Titans game, though don't hold me to that.
25:29
He was just... He's like, "Oh, this brand-new technology, it's just incredible." And then he had to, like, catch himself. He's like, "Uh, for football," because he, he remembered- [laughs] He's crazy...
25:37
tennis has been using it for 20 years. And again, it's like, hey dude, there's bodies on it and it's all, like, subjectively spotted to begin with, so Hawk Eye doesn't, is really the same thing. Uh, but you're right.
25:47
W- the, the [laughs] when, that sequence in the Bears-Bengals game, he thought for a second Garrett sacked Burrow on downs one, two, and three, only to be told in his ear it wasn't Garrett on third down.
25:58
[laughs] And he was like, "Oh, that's, that's not as fun." [laughs] Uh, picks- You, you and I were texting about that, like, the first night of preseason.
26:05
Like, the, uh, the NFL has done such a great job of making it seem like they completely invented this technology. Like, oh, tha- all praise and thank God the NFL's around that we- [laughs]... we finally have this, Gil.
26:16
Yeah. It wouldn't have been done- Thank God... if it wasn't for this league. Oh, I don't know of that being used ever. Completely revolutionized tennis for the last two decades. Pick 10. Of course, Will.
26:26
McCarthy will be going into the Hall of Fame with Daniels. In the same class, right Gil? Yeah, I think Will was being sarcastic.
26:32
[laughs] I think he was being humorous because Will is the v- Will was the first one we were texting the first three-quarters of that game. Will's like, "God, I, I was trying to will this guy to be good."
26:40
And then of course J.J. McCarthy engineers three, uh, fourth quarter touchdowns. Um, no. He ain't. He ain't no Jayden. Not yet, anyway. Uh, shall we do some NFL power rankings after week one? Let's do it.
26:51
After week one, yeah. NFL power rankings. Plug it in. No, we don't have that one? Okay. Maybe not. All right. Uh, just go to your r- go to your power rankings. All right. Power rankings. There we go.
27:02
[electronic music] Uh, live 1:05. Okay. Um, now make of it what you will. Do I hear birds chirping, by the way? Do I hear birds chirping outside? [laughs] I j- I feel like I just did hear that. Yeah.
27:16
[laughs] Well, that's interesting. Yeah, we got birds in the studio. Yeah, we have birds. Yesterday Drew had, uh, parrots outside of his house that chirped. Oh, that sounds about right. Yeah. Is he still in Hawaii?
27:23
No, he's at his house- Oh, okay... in the LBC. All right. I got the Ravens number one. I know they lost. I know they lost.
27:29
Uh, but the Ravens to me are the number one team in the National Football League, uh, based on everything we saw. Yes. Bills flourished. Josh Allen deserves all the credit in the world.
27:39
Um, but there was definitely a series of events that is unlikely to repeat itself with the Ravens. Do they have a problem in one-score games through the years? Sure they do. They're still my number one team.
27:48
By the way, speaking of DVOA and Aaron Schatz, uh, he has- Team sucks, bro. What's that? Team sucks. Rav- Ravens. Completely fell apart. Yeah, number one teams don't fall apart like that.
27:59
Of 0-1 teams in the history of DVOA, which now goes back I think all the way to 1979. [laughs] You ready for this? [laughs] About time. What are they, really high?
28:07
[laughs] They are the fourth best 0-1 team based on DVOA in the history- [laughs]... of DVOA. The least shocking of shocking DVOA stats of all time. Do you know who's one and two of the m- 0-1 historicals? Oh, God.
28:21
W- so Washington teams from the '90s. '99 Skins, '79 Skins. Um- Who's the third team? Now I feel like we're leaving out- Oh, I just, I just-... w- if we've mentioned all the others...
28:30
I just clicked it off on my computer. Yeah Oh, sorry. Sorry, third team. Third team. It's probably the Saints last year. Uh, that would be the 1991 LA Rams. Oh. Yeah, sure. Great team.
28:41
Yeah, that team actually finished three and 13, so they, they sucked not only week one, but they ended up sucking period. Whereas those Skins teams went 10 and six, I'll have you know.
28:49
We'll see where the Baltimore team is. Anyway, here are my power rankings. Ravens are one. Eagles, because they won the Super Bowl, I'm not gonna go crazy, uh, even though they could've or should've lost against Dallas.
28:58
They're number two. The Bills are three. The Buffalo Billiards and Josh Allen are three. Only issue, man, they got problems with that secondary still.
29:06
So we'll see, we'll see what happens with the Bills here moving forward, but they're number three. Packers are four after their win over the Lions. I think they deserve that spot.
29:14
Chiefs, I get it, they lost to the Chargers, but out of respect, out of just respect, Kelly, put respect on their name, they're number five. Commodores are number six.
29:24
Aaron Schatz is number one after D- after one week in, uh, DVOA. They're my, they're my number six. Uh, then the Chargers who beat the Chiefs are seven.
29:33
The Niners are eight, but I, listen, I'm aware the injuries are just, this is a tenuous position for them. I, we'll see. We'll see if they can get by the Saints.
29:42
I mean, it's a good sort of opponent to have with all these questionable things. Obviously Kittle's out. We'll see about Brock Purdy. Broncos are nine.
29:50
I don't, I don't think they played particularly well against the Titans, and I, and I thought the Titans, I thought Char- I thought, I thought Ward was better than, uh, Cam Ward, I almost said Charlie Ward.
30:00
I th- I thought Cam Ward was better than his stats suggest. But the Broncos defense is the Broncos defense, so because of that side of the ball they get number nine.
30:08
And then the Rams, who took a 14 to nine lead over the Texans early third quarter and managed to let that hold. The Rams are the team I have the least handle on. They're my number 10. I like it.
30:18
I'm, I'm, I'm, this is intriguing. Week one results of, of what we have the same and what we have different. So how about we have the same top five teams in a different order. Okay.
30:27
We have the exact same team- We have the, we have the same, we have a, we have a-... at six, nine, and 10. We have the top s- oh, wow. Okay.
30:33
Exact same teams at six, nine, and 10, and then seven and eight I have teams that you don't have in your top 10 at all. Oh, that's interesting. All right.
30:39
So your one through five in a different order than mine are- Well, the Buffalo Bills, number one.
30:44
Uh, th- yes, they've got problems in the secondary, but, um, that o- that offense and Josh Allen, gonna be a problem all season long. So I'm gonna b- I'm leaving them right there at number one.
30:52
Ravens, look, this is, DVOA stat was great. They have an awesome team. I, it's really hard to r- I think rank them belo- uh, maybe you could make an argument for three.
31:01
I don't really know how you could go much further than that. Uh, Ravens, two, and then Eagles, three. I, I w- I'll stick with those top three right now, and then the way you kinda emphasized, I don't...
31:11
How many, how many years are you g- you and I gonna sit here and do these weekly power rankings? And overreact on Chiefs regular sea- Yep, I did it...
31:17
season things, and then just sit back here at the end of the year and act like where do they really belong? So I'm with you. They're- I'm sticking them at four right now. Uh, I mean, I got NFC questions right now, right?
31:26
I, I got NFC questions. After the Eagles, how does this really stack up? I put Packers, uh, fifth, but I think when you and I both did NFC power rankings first, we had the Lions number two, right?
31:35
So one week of football, I'm not trying to overreact too much. Went Packers five, Commanders six, Lions to seven. Hmm. I don't think this is a dead team at all. I- I think it's one week. Let's give them a little time.
31:47
Bengals eight, same th- sort of thing. One week, it didn't look good. Um, but I... Joe Burrow, that offense, I've got trust to bounce back here. Nine for the Broncos then, 10 for the Rams.
31:57
I'm with you once you got down to nine, 10, though. It's, uh, there's a lot of teams you feel like you could make an argument to kind of put in those spots, but went Broncos nine, Rams 10.
32:06
So you had Lions and Bengals, and I had... Which were my two that I had? I had, um- You had Chargers seven, 49ers eight. There you go, Chargers, 49ers. Okay. Um, that's after one week.
32:18
And again, the, the task with all of them, I don't- The Chargers were very impressive, too. I just c- I couldn't get, they couldn't get into my top 10 yet. We talked about them all summer long. Yeah.
32:27
I've still got major questions. Listen, they beat the Chiefs, they deserve it.
32:30
Um, I, I just think, again, with all of this after week one, r- first of all, the reason there's gonna be some people out there, "Oh, why do you guys even do power rankings?"
32:37
It just gives us guardrails, I always say this every, you know, as often as I can, to not overreact- Mm-hmm... right, to a loss or a win, to, to just catapult a team way high or way low based on one result.
32:49
So we kind of use it as a guardrail, uh, week after week.
32:52
But the, the task overall, right, after week one is, you know, we, we call week two overreaction week, but really better stated, it's what is real and what wasn't, right?
33:04
And I don't know that any of us are th- are skilled enough to know, uh, with 100% certainty what was real and what wasn't, and that applies to a lot of teams, right?
33:14
Like, in some cases, it's going to end up being, "Oh, yeah, no, the Dolphins actually do suck," let's say. Right. Yeah. Right? Yeah, yeah. Or- I mean, I'll be the first to wave my...
33:22
or w- w- uh, raise my hand on that one, right? Like, Dolphins- I- I was trying to defend them all summer I'm just, I'm just using you as a- One game, they looked real bad I don't know if I believe it.
33:30
I'm just saying maybe that becomes the case, and maybe with the Lions, you're right. Maybe it's like, "Oh, the Lions are still the Lions of, of last year and the year before." We shall see.
33:38
Uh, Greg Peterson, baseball is full. He's got a bunch of picks next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
Hey, uh, Kelly Bidlin, we have a Average Joe weekly contest winner. Nice. Patrick. Who do we got? Patrick O'Connell. All right, Patrick.
34:03
This week's Average Joe contest winner, and because he's already had an Edge Boost account, his $500 prize doubled to $1,000. Bam.
34:10
That's why you gots to have an Edge Boost account, 'cause when you win the weekly, you win 1,000, not just 500 as Patrick did. Congratulations, Patrick O'Connell. He wasn't the only, uh, hot hand.
34:20
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34:27
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34:35
Enter any time this season at vsin.com/joe. Is that wrong? 7 and 0. Whoa. 7 and 0. On a week like that, we were talking about this yesterday, uh, Circa Millions, top five picks all lost.
34:49
Lost five mil- Was, didn't it extend to top six? F- nine out of the top 10- It's crazy... all losers. I went one and four in Millions. I went one and four to start out the season.
34:58
Guess we, as we- Survivor all got through, but- Uh, that was everybody's thing. Yeah, yeah. I, myself, I, I was like, I was 6 and 0 in Survivor, but everybody got through in Survivor. Mm-hmm. Only 3%,
35:07
after the Monday night game, only 3.02% eliminated in Survivor, by far the lowest ever week one tally in, uh, Circa Survivor. Uh, week two- I'm a little thrown for this week, though.
35:19
Uh, I'm sure we'll talk about it over the next couple days, but, uh, I leaned a little bit more into Arizona, uh, week one than I thought I was going to, and I think they've got a we- great week two option.
35:27
I was kinda planning on using the Niners this week. My options for it this week are between four teams: Baltimore, uh, Dallas, Arizona, and who was the fourth? Now I can't forget who.
35:40
I can't remember who the fourth one was, but there was a fourth. So those, those three and a, and a fourth. Uh, we got tweets to beat in the book. Brosek1870, "Would never miss work, Kelly. Hell yeah, Megapod today."
35:51
Oh, he says, "Matt Hubins would never w- miss work. Hell yeah, Megapods." [laughs] Hmm. Mm-hmm. It's factual. Um, Kevin @CloneBone, "I'm glad you addressed the birds.
35:59
I thought they're either pumping in birds like the PGA or I'm about to have a stroke. Get it? Stroke, PGA. I'm here all week. Tip your VSiN host," he says. Okay, well, Kelly's looking at me weird.
36:10
Ronnie Rojo- I was just hoping we heard something weird. Kelly would love to hear your thoughts on the, uh, on the Procore Napa, if you have any. Welcome back, sir. Glad you're feeling better.
36:18
Coming up later in the show. Oh, there you go. Jason Stark, "Here we go with the Aaron Schatz garbage rankings that always says this year's team is the best ever, yet they never win anything."
36:26
It's very, it's very Ravens skewed, that's for sure. Um, and Rhodes Nose, "Team sucks, bro. Lol. Kelly hat backwards Bidlin." What did you say that about? Ravens. Ravens. [laughs] Just, just you item one, item two.
36:38
[laughs] Greg Peterson joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line to talk Major League Baseball full day and night Major League schedule with all kinds of playoff implications, which Greg and I were talking about here on the break.
36:49
Uh, Greg, good morning to you, sir. Hey, hey, Gil. We've got ourselves day baseball, and you mentioned it, man. It has been wild the last few days in terms of football, baseball, and we're here for it, baby.
37:01
We're here for it. I said this to Jensen last week, I'll say it to you. The Padres just refuse to win this division, don't they? The NL West, just refuse. Gosh, it feels like there's so many teams out there as well.
37:11
Like, the New York Mets are refusing to win games right now. The Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros. Who wants the AL West? The AL East, it has been just miring in mediocrity, and now the Red Sox- [laughs]...
37:23
who are getting hot, they lose Roman Anthony. So I- Ah. That has been this entire picture. And for those that listen to my podcast, Baseball Betting Show, I've mentioned it for two months.
37:33
It feels like, and I'm gonna use the line of Denny Vietti from CBS Sports from last year, it's a mid-off all across baseball right now. All these teams are very, very mid here in the second half of the season.
37:44
The best teams have honestly been your teams like the Giants, the Rangers, who are not in the playoffs right now, but are actually winning games, and everyone else is just sort of treading water that's in the playoffs.
37:54
Way to bring in Gen Z, Gen Z with that one, Greg. A mid-off, Kelly- That's right. It's a mid-off. As oppos- Six-seven, baby. As opposed- Six-seven.
38:01
[laughs] As opposed to, I don't know how you put this, you kids put this, as opposed to a rizz off, right? It's a mid-off. Thanks very much, everybody. Uh, all right, Greg, you got a bunch of picks. You got seven.
38:10
I'm counting seven plays. Uh, let's start with the Brewers and the Rangers. Again, Rangers, huge implications. Brewers, kinda sitting tight at the number one seat in the NL. They're chilling.
38:21
But for the Rangers, this means a whole bunch. And thankfully, we've got ourselves day baseball, and I think that Freddy Peralta's due in for a regression for the Milwaukee Brewers.
38:30
He's giving 10 strikeouts per nine innings. That's been going up recently.
38:34
But, I mean, the fielding independent is more than a full point higher than the ERA, and this Rangers team, from out of nowhere since the beginning of the month of July, averaging over 4.8 runs per game.
38:44
They have no Marcus Semien. They've got no Corey Seager, but all of a sudden they've exploded. And for Merrill Kelly, since the Rangers picked him up, a sub 3 ERA.
38:53
I love the way that he's been rolling, and Texas frankly has been playing a little bit more pitcher friendly than we've seen in past years. But I do think that the Rangers are able to get to Freddy Peralta.
39:03
Brewers bullpen, which has been so good this year, dealing with a bunch of injuries. I think that the Texas Rangers bust through that earliest game.
39:10
I like the underdog here with the Rangers on the money line at home, and I do like that over of seven and a half, as I think that Freddy Peralta's now given up zero runs in his last five starts, overdue to have a little bit of something go against him.
39:22
All right, Rangers money line in this one, and the over. Two plays in one game from Greg. That's an early 2:35 PM Eastern, uh, first pitch for that one. Diamondbacks and Giants.
39:33
Uh, this is the one that everybody in the Bay is gonna be focused on.
39:35
I just talked about earlier how the Giants now two behind the Mets in the standings for the final wildcard position, really three because they lose all tiebreakers with the Mets.
39:45
Uh, but they look to sweep the Diamondbacks today. Do you think that will happen? I think so.
39:50
Carson Seymour began the season out of the bullpen for the Giants, coming off of start number two for him, and looked solid in that start against the Cardinals. One run given up in five innings.
40:00
And Eduardo Rodriguez has been better recently. One run allowed in his last two starts, but dismal 5.22 ERA this year. 1.4 home runs, 3.5 walks per nine innings.
40:09
And, I mean, Gil, I know you're a little bit of a San Francisco fan. Rafael Devers finally living up to what San Francisco- Yes... traded for. I mean, finally.
40:18
W- It took a long time, but all of a sudden this offense is catching a little bit of fire. William Thomas is looking a little bit better for the season. Yes.
40:25
Matt Chapman is actually hitting for a little bit of average right now. It's the Giants offense that is starting to turn things around. And as we know, pitcher-friendly ballpark, eight and a half.
40:33
I just can't advise an over with an eight and a half. If you could get ba- back down to a flat eight, I might be looking at it, but right now that Giants money line is right around about -115, -120.
40:43
I'm gonna trust in the young gun in Seymour, because I have no faith whatsoever in Eduardo Rodriguez and that bullpen. Let's go, Giants. Um, I'm with you on everything you said also.
40:51
Again, uh, gone at the deadline, Wade, uh, Yastrzemski to the Royals, Rogers to the Mets, Duvall to the Yankees. They can't hit a lick.
41:00
Devers isn't performing, and as you said, all of a sudden everybody's raking, starting with Devers. 382 runners in scoring position.
41:08
The runners in scoring position since August 23rd, 382 for the Giants, so huge and high leverage situations on offense. Uh, let's go to the Pirates and Orioles.
41:17
This doesn't have any playoff implications, but Paul Skeens is on the mound, so that's something. How are you playing this?
41:22
Absolutely, and with Paul Skeens, he's been able to make you a lot of money to the under, because he has been amazing this year with a 195 ERA, giving up just a half home run per nine innings.
41:31
I am barring something very, very extreme happening, him giving up, like, 10 runs in a start, he's gonna be able to win the Cy Young Award.
41:37
And he's backed up by an offense that is dead second last in terms of home runs on a per at bat basis and runs per game, with about 3.6 runs per contest.
41:46
Tyler Wells is making just his second start of the season for the Orioles, but last we saw him a few years ago when he was fully healthy, was a solid serviceable pitcher for the Orioles.
41:56
They've dealt with a lot of injuries as well, with the likes of Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg going on the injured list. So it's a diminished Orioles lineup.
42:03
This guy in Paul Skeens, uh, they really haven't limited his innings. I was waiting to see if the Pirates would do this. Yeah.
42:09
Maybe he starts tonight, but they are letting him go, so I like that under of seven and a half. If I absolutely have to play it, the Pirates on the money line.
42:17
I would not advise a run line here, because I just don't know if the Pirates can score enough to be able to cover that run line. You're absolutely right.
42:23
We thought, we thought a little after mid-season, we're like, "Oh, they're clearly limiting his innings," and then they reversed course. So Skeens, uh, yeah, going for the Pirates again, for the Buccos today.
42:32
Greg going under seven and a half runs in that one.
42:35
Uh, Nationals and Marlins, no playoff implications here, but, uh, after being the worst team [laughs] in the month of August, the Nationals so far leading September with a seven and one record. What are you playing here?
42:48
Yeah, but I think that the Nationals soon might be using the Rob Schneider line of, "Oh, no, we suck again."
42:52
[laughs] Because they've got Jake Irvin out there giving up 1.9 home runs per nine innings, and Eury Perez, you wanna talk about some home and road splits, 6.46 ERA on the road, with over 2.2 home runs allowed per nine innings.
43:05
At home, in over 33 innings, he's allowed zero home runs [laughs] and a 2.25 ERA. So I think that the Marlins are gonna be able to bust through here.
43:13
Perez has had a miserable run over his last five starts, but darn near all of those starts have come away from home. Him getting back to Miami I think is big.
43:22
It's a Marlins team that has been really not hitting ever since they've lost Kyle Sowers. But I think that Perez goes out there, gives you a nice start. I'm gonna take the plus money of the run line of the Marlins.
43:31
And if I had to play this total of eight and a half right now, I'd be looking under, because I think that Perez shuts down the Nationals, and I think that the Nationals cool down. All right, let's squeeze in two more.
43:39
We'll do 20 seconds on each. Astros and Blue Jays, both teams hanging on to division leads. Big comeback by the Jays last night. Yep, and with the Blue Jays, I was writing this up when it was -130 on the money line.
43:51
You're still getting it at a -140. Solid number. Jason Alexander, sub 3.25 ERA with the Astros, but that fielding independent is nearly a point higher.
43:59
Blue Jays have been leading the American League in runs per game at home, so like the Blue Jays on the money line. All right, lucky pick number seven, Rockies and Dodgers. We're gonna go with the under here.
44:09
Rockies are averaging 2.9 runs per game away from home. Dead last in terms of on-base percentage away from home, so give me the under, not so much that hefty run line/money line. Greg, you're awesome.
44:18
Appreciate it, man, as always. Always appreciate you. Thank you. Good luck with all the bets. Greg Peterson, everybody, @gunit_81 on Twitter. Love Greg with all his baseball plays.
44:29
Win Total Wednesdays in the National Football League next on the Numbers Game right here at VS, V Sports Betting Network.
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