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Sep 10, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 10, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 10, 2026 | Hour 1
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44:50
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:11
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 189. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell. Hey. Football, football, football. That's right.
0:23
It's back, baby. This, uh, this becomes a whole different gig when football's happening. Sure does. You walk in with a little pep in your step. Told, told that to young Maxwell yesterday. Hmm.
0:32
The sh- the show writes itself. Very different once football season starts. Sure is. Uh, Niners-Rams tonight. We'll talk about the Seahawks and Patriots last night obviously at the top here.
0:42
Zach Cohen will join us, uh, see if he has any US Open semi plays today on the ladies' side, college football, NFL with him. Mike Rearden from Right Angle Sports, they got off the schneid last week.
0:53
Remember they lost on FSU week one with a live release here on the Numbers Game. Then last week, easy-peasy total over on the Indiana game. So, uh, there we go, Mike. Let's make a streak out of this. Is two a streak?
1:06
Well, I don't know. Two's on your way to a streak. Let's see what happens later. Uh, he will have a live release here on the show. Sure.
1:12
Remember, the pr- the process here is the Right Angle Sports process, which is you'll put...
1:17
They'll, they'll give you a rotation number, they'll tell you to put it in the bet slip, and then it's either gonna be a go or a cancel. We have not had a cancel yet this year. We have not had a cancel yet this year.
1:27
And, uh, we are gonna do this earlier in the segment so that we don't tell. We don't give a tell here. Mm-hmm. Okay.
1:35
And then a little later on, by the way, Unscripted with The Craftman Bill Krackenberg, but Bill is not here, so we're gonna do a little truncated version. I know, I know. Everybody relax.
1:43
He's not in town, so w- we will have Bill on the show, but it'll be just for a couple segments, and then how about Elihu Feustel on the show as a bit of a replacement for one of those segments?
1:53
Elihu Feustel, who for my money, sh- is, is the person not in the sports gambling hall of fame that should be. Hmm. Um, he was, uh- Oh, he's great... he was Simon Noble at Pinnacle back in the day.
2:08
He used to, uh, ghostwrite as Simon Noble, where I was reared on, uh, Pinnacle newsletters in the '90s. He was Justin Seven in the SBR forums for so many years.
2:17
He's an author of, of several books, uh, one of which I was reared on, Conquering Risk, back in the day. He was on last year or the year before, I can't remember.
2:24
I think it was last year- He was on last year with us, yep... with, with his new book. Uh, Elihu wants to talk NFL teasers. Love it. And when Elihu talks NFL teasers, it's not your average NFL teaser discussion. Mm-hmm.
2:34
It's gonna be to get out the pen... Oh, what, what do people do now? Pen, pencil and paper? People do that still? Sure. Get, get, yeah. Yeah, sure. Have a number two pencil and a r- and an eraser. With note cards.
2:44
That's right. Yeah. Find some note cards. It's gonna be good. Yeah, Elihu's, uh, I know I was texting with him yesterday, can't wait to have him on. I, I had to kind of apologize.
2:51
Not only did I miss, missed him at his Bet Bash panel, 'cause there were so many going on at the same time- Yes... it was just impossible to get to all of them, right?
2:58
But then I was rushing out one day from Bet Bash, and a old Bobby Geddes, who we love to death- We love him... grabbed me real quick to say, say hi, and I'm kind of doing, like, the half run out.
3:08
I didn't realize he was standing there talking to Elihu, and I kind of, like, put it together right when I was leaving. I was like, "That was definitely Elihu Feustel," and I just, like, kind of blew him off.
3:17
S- so I had to text him yesterday. I was like, [laughs] "Hey, by the way, sorry about that quick thing at Bet Bash." [laughs] And oh, no surprise, uh, Fezzik got into it with him on Twitter. Oh, shocker. Sure. Shocker.
3:25
Yeah. Let's ask him about that too. Well, well you know what? We might have multiple guests that want to address that today, 'cause I think Michael Rearden has something to say about that as well. Oh, really?
3:31
[laughs] Yeah, exactly. Oh, that's true. What's, what's wrong with him? I know, yeah, I know. Oh, my God. I'm supposed to say, "God love him" right there. [laughs] Right. Is what I'm supposed to say at the end.
3:40
Yeah, exactly. [laughs] I think.
3:41
By the way, Elihu, as I've mentioned before, also the greatest Elihu Feustel moment, him trying to explain to a, uh, a, a lady who was looking for business at 3:00 AM at the casino the odds of craps and how you- Oh, I have not heard this story...
3:54
and why you should, and why you should maximize odds- Fantastic... at the first Bet Bash here in, in Las Vegas. All right. Patriots m- uh, Patriots and the Seahawks last night. Seahawks win it by three.
4:04
That means it was either a loss for the three and a halves, the minus three and a halves. It was a push for the threes. If you bought it down to two and a half, good on you.
4:12
Um- God, it feels like, that was a push for me, Gil, and it feels like one of those lucky hits of the season is here already. Well, why? On Seattle? Yeah. I disagree immediately. Okay.
4:22
Because there's this little thing called a Super Bowl-winning quarterback that got knocked out five plays in. So everything else after that is a narrative that, that is second place. Oh, sure, sure, yeah.
4:34
And that's ev- that's everything. That's the whole game.
4:35
Like, I don't wanna hear anybody on, in the New England side say, "Oh, boy," 'cause Fezzik this morning, not to bring him up again already, but Fezzik- Like, there was no right side.
4:42
You know how we always do that right side thing? No, I don't, I didn't say there's a right side. I'm just saying Fezzik's sort of like, "Well, you should've gotten the best of the number when it was four."
4:50
And I was like, "The starting quarterback got knocked out five plays in." Right, yes. Everybody stop it. Yep. Um, s- first drive of the game, fifth play.
4:57
Darnold, Sam Darnold goes to the tent after the fifth play, or after that little short drive where Seattle had to punt. Um, lower leg injury was what it was stated first. Then it was, then it was changed to a hip injury.
5:10
And Kelly, you were saying they took him to the hospital last night for a CAT scan that revealed nothing. It's an MRI today. MRI today. Okay.
5:18
So still waiting on results, but no fracture in the hip for, uh, for him, so that's good for Darnold. That's good. Yeah. Sacked by Dre'Mon Jones, um, and that was the end of that. Would not return. Drew Lock in.
5:31
Uh, Seattle's third, excuse me, Seattle's second drive, they punt after Lock, uh, almost got picked by Gonzal- uh, by, uh, Christian Gonzalez. Could've been a pick six too.
5:41
New England, subsequent drive, third and two at the Seattle 36. Flea flicker, PI on Jobe, downfield, never looked back defending A.J. Brown. Next play made to Eli Rairdon. First q- first, uh, touchdown.
5:53
Bet for anybody who had Rairdon. Eli Rairdon from two out, seven and nothing Patriots, 9:11 left in the second quarter. And then Seattle on the subsequent drive, third and 22 at their own 33. Remember Lock to JSN for 21.
6:06
Then they were gonna do a s- a tuchus push, the old tush push on fourth and short, negated by an offside Hey, uh- Offensive offside Okay, our first time of the season that we get to talk about this, Gil.
6:18
Uh, I've usually been on the side of, man, yeah, they're missing a lot of these offsides on these tush push. I did not see that one. Oh, 75 was clearly- Really? Oh, yeah.
6:26
I mean, they didn't, like, show many replays of it. Like- They showed the overhead of it... they showed the overhead. Yeah. I, I didn't see it right away. I, on the first look, I didn't see it.
6:33
Anyway, it's 7 to nothing Patriots at the half. May was 10 of 12 for 66, uh, and a touchdown, five carries for 36 yards. Locke was 6 of 8 for 51. Not exactly an offensive show. Defenses- No... were looking good.
6:46
Third quarter- I, I thought May was, I thought May in the first half, though, was efficient and looked fine. He was fine. I thought Drew Locke was, was fine, but they weren't really play calling for him.
6:56
It, it w- I thought when they- It-... came out in the third quarter, great job- They finally had, they finally had a plan ready with Locke. Great job- Yes, okay... by Seattle offensive coordinator Brian Fleury.
7:04
Yeah, with you there. First time calling plays. I think he really, he started to, like, roll out Locke and that kind of thing. Third quarter begins. New England set up to punt, but not before A.J.
7:12
Brown gets rolled up on the high ankle. Mm-hmm. Uh, some people thought it was an Achilles pop. I'm not so sure about that. Looks like it's a high ankle sprain, they're saying.
7:20
Yeah, that's what we're hearing early today, high ankle sprain, but another guy that will be getting tests today. Another guy that will be getting tests. A.J.
7:26
Brown, um, three catches for 26 yards when all was said and done, before he got taken out of the game. Um, all right. Yeah, negative x-rays for a fracture on A.J. Brown. Will have a, he will also have an MRI today.
7:40
Ian Rapoport repeating that. Believed to be a high ankle sprain. New England, though, in punt formation, then roughing the punter on Chaz Surratt. Pats ball on the Seattle 37.
7:48
They have to settle for a Borrugala's 50-yard field goal. 10 to nothing Patriots with 11:49 left in the third quarter. Next time they had the ball, though, they were pinned at their own six, three and out.
7:57
The first three and out of the game for either team, by the way, it should be mentioned. Really? Yeah, that was a- Huh... it was very surprising at that time.
8:03
Seattle takes over at the New England 43, so they got great field position. Third and fourth at New England 37. Locke to Kupp for 24. Great catch. What a throw, too. Yeah. Three plays later, Locke to Kupp.
8:14
Would-be touchdown negated by an illegal shift. Don't forget about that also. Yep. Seattle had a touchdown negated. They had to settle for a Myers 30-yard field goal. 10 to 3 New England with 3:13 left in the third.
8:24
Then New England in the fourth quarter, and this is where the nightmare begins for the Patriots. Second and nine at the Seattle 45. May for Dobbs deep. Picked by Nehemiah Pritchett.
8:33
More on May or more on Dobbs mistiming a jump? What do you think? Hmm, Dobbs. I, I, I'm like, uh, Dobbs on all of these. Yeah, let's, let's get rid of the helmet, by the way. I know it's for safety, but come on.
8:43
After a 29-yard return, uh, Seatt- Seattle takes over at their own 33. They matriculate to fourth and one at the New England 45. Pass play. Locke to JSN. First down, gone. See ya. Can't catch him.
8:55
10:10, 11:28 left in the fourth. New England, after Dobbs was wide open and dropped a pass on second down. Oh, God. Third and four, [laughs] third and 14 at their own 22. May into traffic, picked by Julian Love.
9:08
Seattle at the New England 47. Wow, are they gonna win this? Are they gonna cover? They get to second and inches at the New England three. This is another one. Even with Drew Locke, they should be covering over and over.
9:19
But a delay call sets them back. They have to settle for a Myers 26-yard chip shot. 13 to s- to 10 Seattle with 5:51 left. Then New England fourth and two at their own 35 with 3:49 left.
9:31
Could you believe they went for this with all three timeouts left? Uh, yes. I was surprised. I was surprised as well. I was surprised they went for it. They went for it. May gets four yards on the ground.
9:40
Two plays later, first- Way too easy... way too easy. First and 10 at the Seattle 48. 3:02 left. Illegal man downfield, so Seattle elects to take that penalty, which I thought was questionable. Mm-hmm.
9:49
I thought they would go with second and 10, but it worked out for Seattle with great defense. So it's fourth and nine for New England at the Seattle 47 with two minutes left. They got all their timeouts.
9:59
At this point, they're like, they're, they're not thinking, they're not thinking field goal. They're thinking touchdown at this point. Mm-hmm. Uh, they gotta go for it.
10:06
Todd was saying, he was like, "I don't think they should go for it." I was like, "You absolutely have to go for it. Why, why punt it here?" I thought it was a little bit up in the air, but yeah. Yeah.
10:12
I, I would've gone for it here. I, this one- I would've gone for it, yep... I had no doubt they should go for. May to Hollins for 13. Now New England thinking- Way too easy... again, thinking touchdown, not field goal.
10:20
They get to first and 10 at the Seattle 21 with 38 seconds left. Two timeouts, but May is sacked by Derek Hall. They get back to third and five at the Seattle 16. May, ill-advised pass into the end zone.
10:32
I thought he was throwing it away. Yeah. Picked by Josh Joe. Ball game. Drake May, true colors shining through. Drake May, can we show that Opta stats?
10:42
Drake, Drake May finishes 23 of 33 for 178 yards, a touchdown, and three picks, all in the fourth quarter. Opta stats. They, they, they searched a little bit for this, but this is pretty amazing. Mm-hmm.
10:54
The Patriots are the only NFL team in the last 30 years to throw three-plus picks, take three-plus sacks, commit three-plus penalties, and score zero points in any single quarter of any single game. It's wild.
11:09
It's just pretty wild. It's just awful interceptions by Drake May, too. I mean, those were awful. The last two were awful.
11:14
A- a- like, I do, I do think it's, it's, it's a l- I mean, not to give him an excuse 'cause they were all bad, but the... Man, and then it's like he had a huge first half, but as soon as A.J.
11:23
Brown went out, it was like he looked like he had nobody to throw the ball to. [upbeat music] Drake May's last five games, from Warren Sharp, seven touchdowns, 11 turnovers.
11:33
That's seven picks and four fumbles lost, 24 sacks taken, 143 yards lost on the sacks, just 6.6 yards per attempt, 5.6 net yards per attempt.
11:41
By the way, it should be pointed out, those were the Seattle game last night and all four playoff games. Schedule, who you play, matters. Coming back on The Numbers Game.
11:51
[upbeat music]The Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The wait is finally over.
12:08
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12:37
Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, alongside We Get Tweets @BeatingTheBook. Uh, this is Carson the degenerate gambling dog.
12:48
Oh, he's talking about the, uh, the mega pod. He said, "Someone tell Fezzik Apollo Creed said, 'I won, but I didn't beat him.' He understood the difference, that he didn't feel like the champ.
12:56
Fezzik didn't understand what the scene was about, how a real champ needs to feel like the champ. Apollo needed to beat Rocky, not just win." Glad we settled that. Thank you, Carson.
13:04
Uh, David Mortellaro, "The pod needs, um, the pod needs..." Okay, it's a Todd thing. Yeah, okay. Uh, Marcus Phillips, "Listened to you yesterday," oh, he's talking to Will. "Why do you torture yourself with Arizona?
13:15
[laughs] Didn't you have enough last year with the Titans?" Okay. Uh, Rocco Salperto, "Woke up this morning to a pleasant surprise.
13:22
My Darnold yes to throw an interception wager at William Hill was refunded with the disclaimer, 'This bet is covered by injury protection.' Is this the norm at other Vegas books?
13:31
Did they pay out [laughs] on the no side?" Uh, no, it's not the norm. Not the norm at all. Bob- Man, good for you...
13:36
Bob Sacamano, "Last night's first half was a rough watch, almost like sitting starters all preseason leaves them rusty. Does last night's first half induce any first half under bets for the rest of week one?"
13:47
It's a pretty fair point. Oh, it's a, that, it's all I was thinking in the first half. I mean, it- These are two teams- Yeah... that did not play a lot of their starters for, for preseason, right?
13:56
So I, I think that matters a little bit, just going back through teams and who actually played, but still, it, it, I, that was what I thought.
14:03
At halftime I was like, "These teams do not look ready to play a football game." I'm looking at unders all the way through week one. This is not a new notion. It's not.
14:10
Ever, ever since they've gone to three preseason games- Yes... we have said this, in the short history, where it's just like there's something about going from four to three that jacked up preseason entirely.
14:19
Because at least with four, you knew you were getting a big effort in, in g- week three. Mm-hmm. We don't have that now. Te- teams play it, like the, sometimes they'll just punt on the entire preseason.
14:30
But yes, Kelly's right, you should really go team to team before you, uh, blanket unders in the first half.
14:35
Nick Kendhammer, "I booked my trip to sign up for Millions because you told me [laughs] we were in the clear of triple digits. Just kidding, we have done Stadium Swim for our opening weekend three of the last four years.
14:43
Skipped last year 'cause the Bears played week four." Yes, triple digits for a few more days in Las Vegas, and then we're clear. [laughs] It's supposed to be like 107 today. I know, man. God.
14:51
It's supposed to be brutal the next couple days. Todd's like, "Should we take a day off from tennis?" I'm like, "Yeah, probably." It was so nice last week, too. Oh, God.
14:57
It's so sad when we hit like 97 here, and we're like, "Oh, it's great, great." SquareBob2022, "Employer sent me to, uh, the Australian office. I was in my mid-20s, LA to Melbourne.
15:07
Got off the plane, took me to the Melbourne Tennis Center. I played for three hours. Just fine for the next 24 hours. It's the next three weeks that were terrible. No chance the 49ers have assimilated."
15:17
I had the same experience when I flew to Korea. I am- Zach, I'm-... so tired of this conversation. Me too. I cannot wait till we play this game. Me too.
15:24
But just to add on, Xavier82, I know, did you see what he sent us yesterday? No. Ed Fang. Ed Fang, uh- Oh, I, I saw that before. Yeah, dude- That was the, that was the sleep science person I was referring to. Oh, okay.
15:34
Yeah. But like the 17 days? N- now I've heard like completely altering things on this from supposed experts, so I'm just ready to play this game and see what the hell actually happens.
15:44
I'm just telling you, Niners are gonna be affected more when they come back too. Uh, Listener Lance, "What was the website you gave out during March Madness that maps out survivor?" Maps out survivor?
15:53
I don't remember that. Survivor pool, I think. Okay. Jim Shogren, "Best player in the game last night was Byron Murphy. Just bet him for Defensive Player of the Year at 100 to 1.
16:00
There are worse things to do with 20 bucks. Cheers." Justin D., this is from Lou Brown from Major League, the manager, "We won a game yesterday. If we win today, it's called two in a row."
16:08
[laughs] "If we win again tomorrow, it's called a winning streak. It has happened before." [laughs] I think the same logic, he says, would apply for Right Angle Sports. Yeah, well done.
16:14
And then, uh, oh, Tom99_66, he has a bone to pick with me. He says, "Love your show. Listen every day. But my one nitpick is you said the D-back didn't turn around. They don't have to do that in the NFL.
16:25
I do like your game recaps." Well, you're right. Technically, a defensive back does not legally have to look back at the ball for pass interference. That is correct, to go uncalled.
16:35
But failing to look back when he makes har- [laughs] when he makes contact makes it much harder to avoid the penalty. Mm, yeah. So both things are true, but I, uh, but I, I appreciate the, uh, the clarification on that.
16:46
Uh, Chris Heath, "All that for half a point. It's gonna be a long contest season." By the way, I believe I'm mathematically with the push, 'cause I, I did put in the, the, uh, Seahawks minus three last night in Millions.
16:56
I believe with that push I am mathematically eliminated from Circa Millions, I believe. Yes. There's a must-win situation. You're toast. Yeah, I'm done. No shot.
17:03
Um, and which brings me to, again, how many times- I was wondering, by-... how many times have I referred to him already on this show? I didn't text you. I didn't text you yesterday.
17:10
I was wondering if you were gonna put Millions in early. I did. 'Cause I knew you had the bets yesterday and today. I put it in early. Uh, and Fezzik would like to jump in on this point.
17:17
You, you talk about a guy who any edge, any, any incremental minute edge that he can sniff out, he says, "This is a subtle point, but if you entered Circa Millions, you have a clear overlay now if they get to 6,000 people.
17:31
The reason is that everyone who played the game last night pushed because they had the line Seattle minus three. So you have a clear edge on the first quarter prizes versus everyone who had a b- [laughs]
17:42
who had, who had a bet..." Uh, he's speaking, then he's, of course, it goes away 'cause he, he doesn't text. He actually voices it. Right, yeah, yeah.
17:47
"And everyone who started with the draw on the game is at the disadvantage for the year long as well." That's Steve Fezzik. That half yesterday, that half point puts us all at a dis- at disadvantage- Well...
18:01
not just for the quarter, but for the year. He's right. He's right. He is right. Tech- technically he's right. Technically he's right. That man looks for, that man can find any edge.
18:08
I mean, a little bit of an overreaction to one game, but he's right. Little bit, little bit. He's right. He's not wrong Cody Betts football, yes. Gilly's Game Recaps are back, and Chris of St.
18:16
Bart's, never too early, but any tennis futures you're thinking about? Oh, no, no. No. Like, what? No tennis futures. It's football now, man. [laughs] We'll get to, we have tennis picks later in the show.
18:23
Uh, like t- like, our, to win Grand Slams number next year? [laughs] Like that one? Well, real quick back to, uh, back to the game last night, 'cause I think there's other things.
18:31
One, I, I, listen, I don't mean to pile on Drake May, but I will say I, I might have in the Sportsbook last night. Mm. I might have immediately gone crazy on the last intercept.
18:40
By the way, Jobe getting his two toes in was incredible. Oh, I'd say, yeah. Um, I- These were bad decisions, but also some really good interceptions...
18:48
I might have screamed in that moment, "And people think you're as good as Jayden Daniels. Get the..." Right, I might have, I might have had that outburst.
18:55
[laughs] But I feel vindicated because Will Hill, who was not with me- Oh, man... texts- Yeah... in the group chat, apropos of nothing. He goes, "You see, that's the difference between May and someone like Daniels.
19:06
Daniels never does something like that," and he's right about that. But I just wanna get back to the thing.
19:11
I'm not trying to knock Drake May other than it just, it does get back to the point, if people wanna minimize schedule, they can do it at their own peril. Mm.
19:19
They had not only the easiest schedule in the NFL last year, the Patriots, it was historically easy. As soon as they...
19:25
Uh, now by the way, the, the Warren Sharp tweet that we read is a little misleading because it's convenient that he had the three picks last night, so it makes the, uh, the turnover part of that look worse than it is.
19:34
Sure. 'Cause Drake May actually played pretty well in those first few playoff games last year. Mm. And it got a little dicey as, as it went along into, into the championship game in the Super Bowl.
19:44
Um, but that stuff about his average yards per pass and the sacks and how much he took on those sacks, those bo- those bottom four things, 24 sacks taken, 143 yards lost on sacks, 6.6 yards per attempt, 5.6 net yards per attempt.
20:01
This just in, competition matters. Totally. And so it does feel like, it's, it's like, I'll take, you know, Mark Rypien, 1991.
20:08
Every long pass when he became a Super Bowl MVP, that entire season, you c- you couldn't have walked up to the receiver 40 yards downfield and placed it in his hands better. Guess what?
20:18
Due for a little regression in 1992 and beyond. Mm-hmm. Yeah. So is, is Drake May a bad at qu- bad at football? No. But, like, to think that he's going to be that guy, all I'm saying, is probably not the, not the jam.
20:31
I, I am still a believer, and especially when we're talking him and Jayden Daniels, these are young quarterbacks that I think will continue to get better. I'm still a believer, Gil, but I think it's well said.
20:39
Yeah, the, the, you can't, you can't say schedule doesn't matter, and what we've seen, seen him play better teams. It's, it's been a step up in competition.
20:47
This is, a couple other guys I wanna comment on, but, like, just overall, Gil,
20:53
fortunate for the Seahawks to come away with a win here, but you are, I mean, you could look at this from both sides and be like, "This was a brutal week one for both of these teams." For both teams.
21:03
You, you don't know how long Sam Darnold's gonna be out for if you're Seattle, right?
21:07
And if you're New England, you came into this season all excited about this revamped receiving corps, right, and the weapons that w- were going to a- be added for Drake May. Now you don't know about A.J. Brown- Yep...
21:19
and how long he might be out, and you can't be feeling great about Romeo Doubs after last night. No, you can't. No, you can't. Yeah, so I, I, shout out Brian Flores again.
21:27
I thought he called a great second half- I agree with you, yes... with Drew Lock under center. I wanna say Josh McDaniels, I got that right, right? Mc- McDonald, McDaniels, McDonalds? No, Mike McDonald. No, no, no.
21:37
Oh, Jesus. Josh McDaniels. Yes. The OC of New England. [laughs] I thought that when, when Darnold went down, New England had a chance to really capitalize on that, and at halftime I said to Todd- Agreed...
21:50
I go, "It's not like New England's running away with this." Mm-hmm. Seven to nothing. Mm-hmm. I thought he got nitty. Like, I thought, and maybe he was doing it on purpose.
21:58
He's like, "Well, if we just don't turn the ball over- Right, yeah... we'll coast to victory." But I think the- Gallo, two saves... conservatism of it g- really kinda torpedoed them also. You might be right.
22:08
I got a couple other bright spots on Seattle. Bright spites, br- bright spots on Seattle. I mean, JSN. What are we talking about? Oh my God. This guy's incredible. He is absolute- Eight for 122 and a touch...
22:17
you know it's going to him every time. It's not like this is a team that is full of weapons on the outside. This was the same story at the end of last year, and still eight catches, 122.
22:28
And how about, sorry, my apologies, Jadarian Price, 'cause apparently I've been saying your name wrong. Oh. Yeah, sorry about that. Give him more carries 'cause he looks like he's ready to go. Um,
22:39
Seattle without Darnold. Gonna tread water with Drew Lock. We don't know for how long it's gonna be. I, yeah, that's more of a conversation. I've believed in Lock in the past, but he has blown every opportunity.
22:52
Zach Cohen on the other side, tennis and football next. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. We were just saying off air, it's, football's the craziest thing.
23:09
Half hour, we haven't even touched on tonight's game. I, it's crazy, man. Because we've touched on it 5,000 times already. Sleep. We, breaking news. Play the- The Niners and Rams travel at different times...
23:20
play the game already. Have you, have you heard about this? Have you heard about it yet, Gil? Well, I'm, I'm as guilty as anybody, 'cause I talked about it at the beginning of August. Oh, yeah, I know.
23:28
But- So I was already sick of it then. Right, yeah. We get tweets. Beauty of the book. Oh, Mike, uh, Mike the thir- III, I don't know if I'm saying that right, if that's what you meant, Mike.
23:37
He says they were talking about Cleve Analytics site for the survivor, for the NCAA survivor site. Oh, yes, Cleve too. It was Cleve. Yeah, yeah.
23:43
Chris Todd, uh, he, he extends my Josh McDaniels comments before the break, and he says, "My fellow Cantonian Josh McDaniels called some bad plays for Drake last night with under two minutes left as well."
23:55
They should have, he said playing for overtime- Hmm... is what they should have done. Uh, Gordon Dye, "Doesn't Fezzik get his early edge when we see the no picks for these contests in week one?"
24:04
Oh, that's definitely an edge, for sure. Sure, that too, yeah. Scrabble Star, "Will Drew Lock evoke the ghost of Earl Morrall? Undefeated season, here we come, Seahawks." [laughs] Okay, easy, easy.
24:16
Mariners Geek: "If the Rams sleep the exact same windows for the next three days and then return from Australia, why would they have a problem?" I think that's the bet the Rams coaches are making.
24:24
Well, the sleep science people that Ed Fang, shout out to our buddy Ed Fang, interviewed, the sleep science lady. She probably... There's probably a title for that. I probably shouldn't call her the sleep science lady.
24:35
[laughs] Sorry. It's like Bill Nye the Science Guy. Hold, hold on. I, I will, I will get- Thank you... I will find it. I don't mean to disparage or disrespect, but what she was saying is, you can't actually...
24:45
She, by the way, she was pro-Rams, how was, how the Rams are doing. Yes, pro-Rams. Which I am as well. Um, but- Dr. Cathy Goldstein of the University of Michigan. Shocker. Michigan. What's, and what's her title though?
24:54
What is she, a sleep science expert? I'm just getting her full name, okay? Uh- Sorry... @, @cathygosleep. Let's see what's on her Twitter page. Okay.
25:01
She is- Anyway, the point, the point being, uh, Mariners Geek, that what she said is you can't really fake it because your circadian rhythm, right? Your, y- it doesn't, you can't really technically power through it.
25:16
But it is a better strategy when you go to Australia to do it that way. She said to go to England, it's actually not as good of a strategy.
25:26
I mean- But there's something about the extra time going to Australia where, like, the acclimation part is just bonk. Yeah. I was listening to her yesterday. Yeah. She's talking about for how many time zones, basically.
25:35
Yeah. You gotta add that many days. And I'm like, this is... It felt a little bit to me like, okay, doctors tell us some things sometimes just to be a little cautious. That's what it felt like, Liz.
25:45
I mean, she said, "When you go to Australia, if you're an athlete trying to perform at a high level, 17 days is what you need to actually truly acclimate there." Here we are talking about the travel again.
25:56
I'm talking about sleep. I'm talking about it again. [laughs] Zach's waiting for us, and I'm talking about sleep again. Z- Play the game. Zach Cohen joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
26:04
Uh, he, of course, can be found on Twitter at bettingonx. Part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. He's the host of Hardwood Handicappers.
26:11
Get your basketball fix as well, but he's here to talk football, both pro and college with us, and a little tennis perhaps, as we are now in the semifinals. Good morning, Zach, by the way. How are you? Good morning.
26:22
Uh- How you guys doing? We're doing well. We got two, uh, women's semis. I'm playing the over in both of these. I haven't even talked about it yet on the show. Uh, I'm playing the over.
26:29
I think the sides are lined pretty properly. What say you? Yeah, I think that the over's a good call. I mean, every one of the other matches has gone over on the women's side, so why not these?
26:39
I, I do think that Pegula to win a set would've been the play that I'd be going with. It's, like, -160-ish. I think that we have seen her kind of figure out how to play against Sabalenka.
26:49
The last three matches between them, Pegula has won two of them. In the one loss, it was close. She won a set. I don't see either player winning in straight sets here.
26:58
I feel like Pegula has a really good ability to, like, hit the ball deep and flat in the court and kind of rush Sabalenka a little bit, and I like her as a returner.
27:06
She does really good work getting depth on her returns, and it kind of takes away the plus one from Sabalenka. When I say plus one, I mean, like, a plus one winner on the forehand side.
27:14
So I think Pegula keeps this close and potentially wins, and I do like Coco against Rybakina. I think that Co- uh, Coco is just a different beast at the US Open.
27:25
Like, she was on the brink of defeat against Mirra Andreeva last match, but she just has this desire to win and this ability to win, you know, really difficult points.
27:34
And I think she's going to find a way against Rybakina, who did become number one in the world after having defeated Qinwen Zheng last match.
27:42
Don't know if that's going to kind of subliminally make her a little less motivated here, but it's always a possibility. And yeah, I think Gauff has just been playing the best tennis of anyone over the last month or so.
27:52
So I think that Gauff's available at a pretty reasonable price, and I do think that her returning will be huge in this match.
27:58
I don't ever remember a tournament where more players got to the brink of victory only to gak it over and over again.
28:05
It seems like there's been, like, almost, you know, somewhere between five to 10 of these in this tournament where there's a point away or two points away.
28:13
Uh, I believe Gauff staved off two match points, if I'm not mistaken, yesterday against Andreeva. Yep. By the way, yesterday I had two bets.
28:19
Lost the Gauff -3, 'cause Gauff lost the first set 6-2, so she only won by one collective game. And then I was well on my way, coasting in with Karen Khachanov, minus 2 and a half games against Alexander Bloks.
28:31
I did mention that Bloks was having physical trouble- Dude... in the previous match, and that, you know, this is w- part of the reason I was taking Khachanov.
28:39
I didn't want him to go two sets down and then a breakdown and then walk off the court. Like, bro, just finish it out. Finish it. Yeah. Like, uh, uh, Anastasia Potapova couldn't walk, she finished out, off her match.
28:52
You couldn't finish it u- Anyway. And that's why we love her. But no, that's the, uh- And that's the fifth face I forgot, I- The fifth face is the winning face. Right. I forgot to text you.
28:59
I, I was watching the warmups, and I'm sure a lot of people were. And you're like, "Uh, this guy's hurting here." Oh, yeah. And I know Gil pointed this out. I was like, "I'm in. I'm in." Yeah.
29:09
So I got to experience that fun- Oh, so much fun... that fun thing with you. It was great. So much fun. Yeah. Who, what, uh, last thing on this. Well, t- two things. One, who do you, what's your instinct?
29:16
Who's winning both of these, men's and women? I think it's gonna be Zverev, unfortunately. I, I just think that the draw opened up for him in a way that is almost unimaginable.
29:25
And, like, I know that Shelton is clearly, you know, a, a major riser is what they're calling him now. They're saying the same about Khachanov.
29:32
[laughs] But the h- the head-to-head between Zverev and Shelton has been insanely lopsided.
29:37
And just everything that Zverev does, like the boring style of play of just returning everything and pushing until your opponent misses a shot, that will work against Shelton. Shelton is still very wild.
29:47
I actually think, like, I, I guess I had a hot take on Twitter that everyone was kind of coming at me for. I didn't think that the Shelton, Alcaraz match was a high quality match. Oh. It was dramatic. Yes.
29:57
I just thought Alcaraz played one of the worst matches I've ever seen him play. There were about four different points, though, that were some of the more epic points you will ever see. Oh, of course. Yeah.
30:06
That, that was the, that was the other thing, by the way. Like, the, the, the, it was criminal that that match started when it started- Mm... and ended when it ended. The US Open has to do better.
30:15
I know I made this point the other day, but it has to be emphasized again. They, that is the worst thing that could've ever happened, that, that the biggest win of Ben Shelton's career, nobody saw, right?
30:26
And it was just I mean, uh, they g- th- that should never happen again. Let's just put it that way. We- Yeah, I heard, I heard McEnroe was like, "There's no solution for it." Like, you could- Yes, you... There is...
30:35
play a little bit earlier. You could start these a little bit earlier. You don't need to have the set start times for each session.
30:40
Just, like, play the matches as they go, and tell everyone to be there, otherwise you might miss the match. Also, there's another stadium. I'm sorry. Yep. There just is. That too. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
30:49
Uh- And guess what? Most people don't know the difference when they're watching on television. That's exactly right Or care. Uh, and then, uh, ladies' side, your instinct is who? I'll still say Coco.
30:58
I actually have some remaining futures th- Hey. I mean, I do for Shelton too. Good for you. I have Shelton 19 to one. I have Pegula, and I have Goff. I think Goff was plus 550. I forget exactly what Pegula was.
31:08
It was either 12 or 13 to one, I think. I'm getting Pegula and Tiafoe vibes, fellas. I'm rooting for Jesse. Let's go. I, I might be making- I want Pegula to win...
31:15
futures bets on both of them today, just to, uh, hopefully get one of 'em home over the weekend. Is, is it wrong of me if I root for Sasha Zverev against Ben Shelton? Is that wrong of me? [laughs] Is that anti-American?
31:25
I just kind of am. Yeah. Yeah. It's anti a lot of things. It is. [laughs] It's anti a lot of things. I take it back. You're right. It is anti a lot of things. Yeah. We'll leave everybody to, uh, to figure that out. Yeah.
31:36
Okay. Uh, college football, give us a play or two, if you would, this weekend. Yeah. I have, uh, Syracuse plus three and a... Oh, sorry, Cal plus three and a half against Syracuse.
31:45
I know that Syracuse just absolutely dominated their opponent in week one, but I had priors pretty much on this Cal team. I think they're going to be really good. I am not backing off them because of that loss to UCLA.
31:55
I think that UCLA is really underrated heading into this season.
31:59
So I look at Cal, and I see a team that's better defensively than Syracuse, has the better quarterback in JKS, and I'm honestly stunned that you're catching points with them.
32:07
It almost scares me that, you know, I like it this much. It never really feels like it ends well when it's this obvious to me, but I do think that Cal goes into Syracuse and probably wins outright.
32:17
I was actually thinking of adding some money line, but I don't like the price enough. It just doesn't seem to make sense compared to a three and a half, which is out there.
32:23
And also took Iowa State plus 14 and a half against Iowa. I just feel like that Iowa offense is still really bad offen- uh, in the passing game.
32:33
Like, they obviously can run, but I don't know that you can win a game against a solid defensive team by p- you know, two touchdowns without having an explosive passing game.
32:41
So I looked at Iowa State, and I saw some value. I think the people are really down on them heading into the season because Campbell left, but they hired a really good coach. They reloaded the roster.
32:51
I think they're good enough to keep this respectable, and I think the last eight games between these two have been decided by 10 or fewer. So 14 and a half is a lot in what should be a low-scoring game.
33:01
And I didn't put it here, but I do have ASU plus 14 and a half against Texas A&M. I feel like Elko has not really performed really well when favored in this range.
33:12
I think he's, like, 10 and a, uh, sorry, one and four against the spread as a favorite of 10 and a half to 21. And Kenny Dillingham has been spectacular with ASU when playing as a big underdog.
33:22
And I also like Cutter Bowley at quarterback. I think that he's crazy talented. Threw for six touchdowns last week, and comes from the SEC, where he faced a lot of good defense last year.
33:31
So facing A&M really shouldn't be anything new to him. Steering clear of Texas, Ohio State? I wanted to take Texas, and I decided to back off it. I think it's just going to be a really tough game to kind of decide.
33:43
Should be fun, that's for sure. NFL with Zach- Yep... on the other side. He's got some props. He's got a side. See if he has anything to say about travel in tonight's game. Who knows?
33:51
It's next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:11
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34:20
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34:30
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34:44
Tweets, beating the book, Jesse Welch. "Well, since the NFL's an absolute crapshoot to bet on, I'd just like to let everyone know that Bayern Munich host, uh, Bodo Glimt today at, uh, 3:00 PM Eastern.
34:54
This match should be as exciting as a Sweeney Novig commercial." Stop making up teams. I did, uh, I did check out that, uh, Sydney Sweeney Novig commercial. Yep. Thought skill, breakdown.
35:05
I'd like to add something to the conversation- Okay, sure... that maybe nobody else will. Yeah, yeah. I thought the, uh, the unsung hero of that commercial was the musical background, the musical track.
35:15
[laughs] Anderson.Paak's jam Come Down- Oh... which is one of the great tracks of the last 10 years. You know that one, Kelly. Yeah. No, no, no, no, and I've also- Don't I make it look easy?
35:26
Isn't it on another commercial? Don't I make it look good? What? Isn't it on another commercial? I actually did notice the music, and that was my thought, that, that I've heard this on another commercial before.
35:37
Maybe you have. I just wanna say the hidden secret to Anderson.Paak's Come Down is that he takes the Israeli national anthem- Really?... and takes the baseline from it, and then does his thing with it. Huh. Yep.
35:50
Interesting. There you go. Ah, it is. Anyway, but back to Sydney Sweeney. Well done by- Nice job by Sydney... well, and, and just Novig. Well done by Novig. Get yourself in the fight, right? Well, they gave her equity.
36:01
Th- no, I saw that. And they g- Saw, that i- that is absolutely worth bringing up... the story they went with was she researched the, the- Also, also, I saw this...
36:09
she researched prediction markets and called them, to which I immediately called J- Jake and Luke over at, at Profit X. I'm like, "She didn't call you?" [laughs] Um, okay. I think I read that. Yeah. Also, she was the
36:23
either creative director or helped plan the entire thing. Yeah, she helped. She helped plan it. So, I mean- Meaning let's put the basketball here. Right. [laughs] That kind of thing.
36:31
Exactly Although I will say this, I read an article this morning that said the commercial is not doing as well as you might think.
36:37
Within 12 hours of its upload on Wednesday, the YouTube video had only notched 72,000 views. On X, it was a typical three million.
36:47
Perhaps due to community guidelines, Novig did not post the provocative clip on Instagram or TikTok. Oh, that's interesting. There you go.
36:53
Novig probably doesn't care about that part, but how- however many people have signed up for accounts, that's what they're gonna care about. Yep.
36:59
Patrick Kelly, "Disappointed Gil and Kelly not talking more about the Australia time zone thing, [laughs] and buried the lead." I can't. I'm out. [laughs] "ANG started today at midnight Thursday, Friday Australian time."
37:08
That's a good point. And prime time Leon Sanders- This feels like a drinking game at this point...
37:11
prime time Leon Sanders, "Yo, did anyone else catch the close, the close-up of Vrabel and his facial expression when he heard the play call for the flea flicker?
37:18
It was epic timing by the TV producer, and Vrabel's little arched eyebrows indicated something interesting was coming. Peace." I did not. I did not notice that. Yeah, I did not notice. But a good, good catch by you.
37:26
Mm-hmm. Um, and Paul Nelson, great point. I'm sorry, one more. "Either the OC wasn't deciding what play to call or Locke wasn't calling the play fast enough.
37:32
Seattle was coming out of the huddle with under 10 seconds too many times. Coach Mike should have called a timeout when they were at the four. They won't nor- that won't work on the road."
37:40
You're absolutely right about that, and I think that has everything to do with him not getting the first team reps, and that was definitely- Yeah, I think so... I mean, listen, that, that delay of game call,
37:50
deep, you know, inside the five, that's the reason ultimately that Seattle didn't cover, as it turned out. Mm-hmm. These are, you know, I was talking with Chris during one of those breaks, so it's the, the, like,
38:01
bad break is a better, right? But it's an inexcusable play. You, you know what I mean? Like, we talk about, like, tipped passes and- Yeah... like, just things that can go wacky. Like, that's inexcusable.
38:10
The C- the Cooper Kupp touchdown gets called back. Yeah. Sorry, it's not a bad break with Seattle, it's a clearly, that's a clear penalty. Yep. Zach Cohen kind enough to join us for our second segment.
38:21
Zach, um, did you have anything in last night's game? And more importantly, do you have anything in tonight's game between the Niners and the Rams? I'm not sure if you're aware of this, it's in Melbourne, Australia.
38:30
Has that come up yet? Yeah. I, I had to write this game up for the website, and I just, like, kinda got all the time stuff out of the way at first, and I said both sides, both arguments, and was just like, "All right.
38:40
I'm not gonna talk about the time. I'm just gonna handicap this football game- [laughs]... because I am not an expert on sleep habits, and I don't wanna pretend to be.
38:46
But, yeah, I had the Patriots plus three and a half last night. Also had some money line. I had some Drake May to go over 225 and a half passing yards.
38:55
So ended up coming out in the negative even though I felt like I had the right read on the game. But it was fine. It was still fun.
39:01
You know, even losing in a football game is still watching a football game- That's right... on prime time, so. That's right. [laughs] But, yeah, for this game, I did take the points with the Niners.
39:10
I got four a little earlier in the week, and I feel pretty good about the three and a half too if you have to play that.
39:15
I do feel like San Francisco is being billed as a very injured team right now, but I still believe that the pass-catching group is going to be way better this game than we even saw last season.
39:27
I think that Mike Evans is gonna be great in San Francisco.
39:30
I know he looks a bit slow in videos that have come out, but this guy has been a touchdown machine his entire career, and he's really nothing like Purdy has had throughout his career.
39:39
And I do think that Kittle being back is big, even if he's used more as a decoy, and I like the other receiving options that they have.
39:45
So I guess I say all that to say that I think the 49ers are gonna be the one of the best offensive teams in the league. They were last year. I think they're going to be top five this year.
39:52
And I think the defense got a little bit better. I mean, you're gonna have Bosa back. You got the defensive tackle from the, the Cowboys, who I think is going to help this run defense really look better right away.
40:01
And I think the Rams are a little overrated in the market right now. Like, I do think that they're obviously a Super Bowl contender, but do I think that they should be as big of favorites as they are?
40:11
I don't think so, and I think that these are really tough games to decide with all of the top teams in the NFC West. I think that they're all very close to one another. I am with you on all that, Zach.
40:20
I will take umbrage with one point. Uh, speak for yourself on the sleep expert, because Kelly and I are massive sleep science experts at this point. Yeah. Yeah. Umbrage. Umbrage has been taken. We've taken umbrage.
40:31
[laughs] Give it to us.
40:32
Um, uh, quick just to update all the injury news, 'cause you might have missed this overnight as Zach was just pointing out, both George Kittle, uh, and Bosa are officially off the injury report completely for this game.
40:45
Yep. We'll see if there's any limited snaps or anything with either one. I'm still, like, amazed. George Kittle, Achilles, right? January, back in this game. We'll see that.
40:53
The one worth pointing out, though, they did have the defensive tackle Alfred Collins go down, uh, while they were in Australia practicing. He will be out for the season. Yeah.
41:03
Nine months is the appropriate amount of time for an Achilles. Right? We're on the sh- short edge of that. But yes, Kittle and Bosa, as we talked about yesterday, both were... Bosa was already in. Kittle was trending in.
41:12
And of course no, no, uh, Aaron Donald for the Los Angeles Rams. Okay. To Sunday. Yeah. A lot of Jets talk on this show, just sort of anecdotally. You are, uh, you're bucking that. You're going with the Titans. Yeah.
41:26
I'm a Jets fan. I know that, like, before the season starts, people like to be very positive about their teams and believe that there's actually some hope.
41:32
But I think that the offense is going to continue to struggle until there's a real quarterback in there.
41:37
I do think that Geno had some good years in this league, but he was outside the top 30 last year in PFF grade at the quarterback position, and that means he is an upgrade [laughs] over what they had last year, but he's still not a starting level performer.
41:49
And I do think that his turnovers will be an issue again. So I do have the Titans in this game. Took it at minus 120 on the money line. I also took Geno to throw a pick at minus 103.
42:00
He threw a pick in 11 of his 15 games last season. I think that that's going to continue.
42:04
And I just kinda look at this game and I see something that I see with, like, the Vikings, where I love the coaching staff for Tennessee.
42:10
I think the talent might not be all there right now, but I love Daboll as an offensive coordinator. I think Saleh's a great defensive coach.
42:17
I think that that is going to give them a huge edge over a Jets team that I think is as poorly coached as any team in the league.
42:23
Like, I think that Aaron Glenn had a miserable defense last year, and I think that he has a lot to do with it, and I don't really believe in Frank Reich turning the Jets offense around.
42:32
So having them on the road wouldn't make a lot of sense to me. I think that the Titans are a little bit more talented, way better coached, and have home field advantage, so I'll take Tennessee minus 120.
42:43
So you did take them on the money line rather than laying the minus one and a half. Tennessee minus 120. Yes. And then the Geno to throw a pick, uh, in that game at minus 103.
42:52
Uh, you have another prop, this is sort of random, but you go to the Colts. What do you, what do you like there? Yeah, I took Alec Pierce over 44 and a half receiving yards.
43:00
I would definitely agree it is random, but last year he averaged, like, 67 yards per game, and I think that with, you know, Michael Pittman Jr.
43:08
now in Pittsburgh, there's only going to be more targets to go around for Pierce.
43:11
I think the issue here is he is dealing with, like, an ankle and heel injury, and he is not considered to be 100% healthy right now, but it does sound like he's going to play.
43:20
And if he plays, you're going to see him targeted down the field quite a bit. So I thought it was a really low number. I didn't expect to be playing this.
43:27
But I do look at our, you know, OptAI player props, and if I see a huge edge, I'll go in and do my own homework on it, and sometimes I come out agreeing with them, and I did here.
43:36
I think that Pierce is going to have a pretty big game. I would expect 70-plus yards.
43:40
What would g- Before you go, remind us the, the most sort of outlying Zach Cohen NFL season-long opinion on a team to the good or to the bad. Would you, what would you say?
43:49
Yeah, I mean, I have the Niners to, to, to go over their win total. I think that they might end up in the Super Bowl.
43:55
I also have the Vikings to go over their win total and win the division, so that is a bit of a longer price. I think that that division is loaded, obviously.
44:02
But I do think there's a chance this thing with Kyler Murray really, really [laughs] helps them. Like, I'm not the biggest Murray fan in the world, but I think he's a huge upgrade over what they had last year.
44:11
It was a competitive team last year, too, and the offensive line was completely banged up. So I know a lot of people share this opinion on the network, but I do think Minnesota is going to be excellent.
44:20
I think the defense is going to be great, and the offense will be much improved. You are right about that. A lot of people loving, crushing on the Minnesota Vikings. Right here. Including that guy right there. Let's go.
44:30
Kelly Bidley. And the Jets. I believe Frank Reich can, uh, uh, cause an offensive resurgence in 2026 with Zach Thomas. [laughs] So there, Zach. Yeah. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it as always, man. Thanks, guys.
44:42
Zach Cohen, everybody. Love having Zach on. We'll come back. We'll look at the whole NFL slate. There are Circa Millions entries, and MO- MLB as well, stat leaders.
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