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Sep 10, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 10, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | September 10, 2026 | Hour 3
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45:52
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Transcript
0:00
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0:29
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:40
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 189. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin- Heyo...
0:51
live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. I wanna get to crack, but I just wanna read these, uh, one, these, uh, couple of these. Mike D. Mike D. "I'm Mike D and I guess respect.
1:01
Your cash and your jewelry is what I expect." He said, "Do you think you need to wait until after the week two games to see who traveled better?" Quote, unquote.
1:09
"You know, if San Francisco or LA fails to show up in week two, it will be blamed on the travel from week one. Just a thought." Mike, I actually- Yeah... made this, made this comment myself,
1:18
which is I do think the Niners will be more affected when they come back. Now, they play the Dolphins, right? So it's not about winning or losing, but perhaps the spread i- is an issue. Mm-hmm.
1:27
I actually do think that's a thing. I think their s- their approach will affect them more when they come back. But again- It's g- it's gonna be interesting. You get Dolphins and then the Rams get the Giants. Yeah.
1:36
So, you know, it's only two strong teams, but could spread come into play? For sure. We're getting sucked into more travel talk. And- Yeah...
1:43
Ken RC Bourne 65, uh, 65 says, uh, "I should have added the first line of a ticket to take the [laughs] number one tweet of the day title away. Ha. Happy New Year, Gil." You too, Todd.
1:51
And Montreal Max, "This Melbourne start threw me off tonight as 8:30 PM Eastern is 10:30 AM in Melbourne, but in January for tennis it always starts at 7:00 PM Eastern, which is 11:00 AM in Melbourne, so two extra hours shorter now for the difference, but most importantly now it's time for unscripted."
2:05
Exactly. Unscripted with the Crack Man Bill Krackenberger. Let's go. [upbeat music] Not in studio though, Kelly.
2:23
Kelly on desk with me because- That's right... 'cause Bill is somewhere on the East Coast, I believe. What's up, Bill? Hey.
2:30
Yeah, uh, imagine, uh, you have to leave the, quote, unquote, sports betting capital of the world, Las Vegas, to go bet sports for opening weekend. And, uh, that's exactly what I had to do.
2:41
Once the West Gate closed, I said, "You know, uh, West Gate is not allowing, um, you know, bets from their... I... Now it's a Caesars brand," so they took away a big out from me for my NFL props.
2:52
I said, "Let me go take some, uh, do some traveling and see what I can get on these Wednesday, Thursday night games and, uh, in general, just to see." And, uh, I, I have been pleasantly surprised.
3:02
I thought I was going to be doing this in, in, in... at some time throughout the season. But as you could see, uh, from my pile- Oh, wow... of, uh, of tickets here first day. You can tell. Yeah, this is, uh...
3:14
Yeah, they're, they're, uh, they're g- they're, they're taking some props over here on some bets. And I've been all around. Matter of fact, I just, uh... I, I, I, I named some casinos here.
3:23
I'm gonna give you guys some of the, some of the names though.
3:26
Um, Wind Creek, Valley Forge, Parks, Rivers, Hollywood, Mount Airy, Mohegan Sun, Resorts World, all within a couple hour drive of each other and, um, just wanted to see how much money I can get down on some of these NFL player props, and I've been pleasantly surprised so far.
3:42
Um, I, I love it up here, by the way. It's, it's, it's God's country. I'm up in the Poconos right now. I'm gonna be going to a, a great spot for dinner, and then I'm actually catching a flight right back.
3:53
But, um, there's a place called The Refinery up here in, in Pittston. Supposed to be great. But anyway, yeah, so I was really surprised, uh, so far. It's only week one. Who knows?
4:03
I, even if you lose, you go back week two and they could say, "Hey, we can't give you that on props no more," so we'll see what that's like. Uh, it's like b- You ever see the, the movie My Blue Heaven with Steve Martin?
4:13
You guys see that? Mm-mm. I have not. Mm-hmm. Yeah. When he's in the witness protection. He's in the witness protection program. Up here, it's like God's country. Everyone's so friendly, so nice.
4:24
Uh, it, it, it's just a, it's a different part of the, of the country that I absolutely love. Um, y- it's porch swings and there's American flags everywhere. People are friendly. People are nice.
4:37
Uh, you know, my, my neighbors... My, my neighbor, my, my buddy's neighbor, who I'm, I'm staying at his house, his neighbors were on a porch swing last night and these two little, the two little girls waving.
4:46
Just a simple wave, and they waved to my friend who was in the car in front of me. We took separate cars. We went to different casinos, and, uh, we met for dinner. And the girls waved and, and I didn't know what to do.
4:57
Imagine? [laughs] Imagine I am so, so part of this culture- Yeah... now of be careful who you wave to and you know, you know... They're, they're, they're innocent children and innocent fam... Like, what is wrong with me?
5:08
[laughs] I even, I even called my wife and said, "Do you believe- You know what, though? I-... I'm in or I'm, I'm over in- I always say that I love San Francisco, right?
5:14
But I always said that, I always said this about San Francisco. Yeah. No one talks to each other in the elevator. Mm-hmm. No one says hi on the street, right? Yeah. No, none of that. Yeah.
5:21
And if you go to, if you go to New York, the... what I am quickly reminded of in New York, which I love, not everybody loves this, but if you...
5:29
I, I remember the first day I was like, "Oh, I'm gonna wait for this order that I just, that I just had here c- carry out."
5:34
And I'm just standing there, and of course, like, two people at the bar who d- who don't know you from anything are like, "Hey, uh, you go to..." Because I had something on my T-shirt.
5:40
They're like, "You go to that tennis tournament?" And it, it's just full conversation. [laughs] That will never happen in San Francisco, right? So it is, there is cultural- Wow...
5:47
differences that are really stark, for sure, around this great nation of ours. Well, well you can keep San Fran. How's that sound? I'll, uh, I'll stick to New York. Wow. But I, I'm not in New York.
5:56
Sorry, Gil, I'm not j- [laughs] I'm not saying it to you in general. I'm- Yeah... I'm more saying to the people that don't, aren't- Yeah... uh, conversing in the bar over your shirt. I'm being funny.
6:05
Or my attempt at being funny. But no- Even my dad, my dad grew up on the Ohio River, and that little town he grew up with, you know, and people, everyone passes by in their cars, and they all wave and say hi.
6:16
And it's just, it's so different to where lots of places like San Francisco, even Las Vegas, it's just different. You know? You don't really know your neighbors and stuff.
6:25
And I'm not saying which way is right or wrong, but I, I'm an old-school throwback guy. I love, I love the old-school towns. Like, um, in s- breakfast this morning. Break- I, I did a v- did a video.
6:35
I didn't put it up yet. Breakfast this morning, are you kidding me? For two people was $28. I was like, "This is impossible." Yeah. Wow. Like, it's $8 for... It's eight bucks for an omelet.
6:45
Like, that doesn't happen in Vega- Vegas, it's, it's double that. It... Something happened in the last five years that omelets are $20 in Vegas, really. I mean, it's, it's crazy. So, so wait a minute. Uh, serious- So-...
6:54
serious question then, Bill. Um, serious question.
6:56
So if you love that part of the country for all the reasons you're stating, and you were just telling us you can get so much more money down, I think you were telling us off-air- Yeah...
7:05
like, combined, like, you would have to go to the, like, multiple books- Yes... in Vegas to equate- Yes... or to come close to equating with what you're getting down over there, do you ever think to yourself- Yeah...
7:14
"Why am I in Vegas? Should I move over there?" Do you ever think that to yourself? Well, I'll tell you, tell you, Gil.
7:20
I, uh, I, I am, I am going to be out of the, out of the area there for half the year, so, um, it, it's, it's something that definitely, uh...
7:29
I, I, I actually was buying a house down, down an area that doesn't even have gambling, a state that doesn't have gambling, uh, for my wife and her family.
7:37
But it's, uh, it's worth it to be up here for football season, even though I'm probably not going to be. But it's worth it for me, I think, as long as I get the limits that I've been getting at all these combined places.
7:50
I did a lot of work the last couple days. If I can get that every single weekend, it's worth it for me taking a flight here just for... and, and getting back for my...
7:58
You know, I, I have some weekend commitments in Vegas, of course. But, um, yeah, it's, it's, it's interesting because of what has happened in Las Vegas. You can't get...
8:07
Now, listen, for the average person that's betting 50, 100 bucks, absolutely no problem, enjoy Vegas. I, and I have places that take props. Um, right there, Circa, they're great to me. They're fantastic.
8:19
Uh, they, they take good limits on props. I have, um, a couple other spots that'll take some props, but those other spots can... I could be here for them. I could be here for the BetMGMs and, and, and, and stuff.
8:31
So, um, it's a very, a very, very good question that I didn't ask myself until last night, 'cause I didn't know what I was going to be able to get down on some of these NFL player props.
8:42
Uh, much, much more than I can get down in Nevada. Uh, in just two stops here, I got down one and a half times what I can get in the whole city of, of, of Las Vegas.
8:52
Would you, uh- And I, and by the way, I have five stops. Yeah. So. I know you're gonna hate me for what I'm about to ask. Would you care to share any of those props? That's okay. Or are you, uh, would you rather not?
9:02
Um, do you know what? I, I, I'm not done yet. I'm going back out- Okay... after the show today. I'm gonna film my podcast, going back out, and, uh, running back to some of the casinos and, and, uh, yeah.
9:12
A- and listen, like, last week you see Randy give out... Was it South Dakota State- Yes... or North Dakota State? South Dakota State. Whoever played Northwestern.
9:18
South Dakota State, and, uh, I told Randy, I said, "This is a thankless business. Are you sure you want me to give these out? Are you sure you want..."
9:25
[laughs] Sure enough, we'd taken 13 and a half, and then of course I bet it again, plus 14 and a half by, by game time.
9:31
And they're winning the whole game until the end of the game, lining up for a field goal to make it a six-point game. You can guess what happens. A minute left. Yeah. They missed the chip shot.
9:40
They're trying to run the clock out, Northwestern, and break for 80 yards, and they called Randy every name in the book- Unbelievable... on a couple different things, you know? Unbelievable. Yeah. So- Yeah...
9:50
please, please, please, Randy, I, I... He's coming on my podcast today. Randy, you don't have to, don't feel committed to giving out- [laughs]... anything, uh, at all. Yeah, I mean, it's nice to give out stuff.
10:00
I hear people going after- It's nice to try to help people. You know? You imagine people going after Randy McKay- Yeah... of all people. Randy's like, "Hey, you know, sometimes- Yeah... they win and sometimes they lose."
10:07
Salt of the- I was tracking that game too... salt of the earth. That, that's the way he talks. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
10:12
U- up here, up here in the country, I say that's, that's the way he talks, 'cause Randy has that real little bit of a drawl. Nice, calm, real even-keeled guy. I've never seen Randy really upset.
10:23
I, I've never seen him upset. So up here, too, they, the way they talk about, like, my, my friend has a little bit of an accent here. I said, I said, "Wow, I never heard you..."
10:31
He says, instead of saying the go, "I'm gonna do the wash," "I'm gonna do the wash." The wash, yeah. Like, they put an R- Yeah... on their language. It's like Brooklyn.
10:37
You go to certain parts of Brook- Brooklyn, and they don't say toilet right. You know what they say? Turlit. [laughs] With an R. A big R in there. Yeah. Yeah. And, um, but yeah, I was, I was saying that.
10:46
But that's what Randy, though, Randy, uh, you know, this guy, this guy goes ice fishing during the winter, during the, the, the week.
10:54
And then at, at, on the weekend, though, he's killing sports books, but he's ice fishing, and I love that. I love, I mean- Bill, how much- Uh, anyways... if I, if I had, if I could ask you, what is your total- Mm-hmm...
11:04
I, I don't know if you even know the answer to this, but if you had to guess your total outlay, well, you know- Yeah...
11:10
when you get to the wins, losses after the weekend is done, but your total outlay of dollars for week one in the NFL, what's your best guess? It, it's, uh, it's a lot. It's a lot. Put it this way.
11:23
I'll tell you something I wasn't gonna [laughs]... You asked, I gotta be honest here on air. [laughs] So I, I, I said to, I said to my buddy, I said, "Dave, do you guys have any, a certain bank around here?"
11:32
And he said, "I think we have one, but it's about 17 miles away." 'Cause I didn't even look on the phone, and I said, "Look, look on the phone," and there is one about, it's about 10 miles away.
11:40
So I, I actually was going to the bank to get money, and, uh, yeah, you have to order money if you're order- [laughs] Yeah.
11:47
If you're ordering more than 10,000, if you're getting more than 10, and if they have the 10, you have to get there in the morning. I was like, "What?"
11:55
And I actually, uh, uh, found that out for somebody else, but yeah, so- I love the ones, I love the ones that- I actually ran out of money yesterday... I love the ones that question you. Like, I, I mean- Oh, yeah...
12:03
you know, you're like, "I'm sorry- Yeah... is this my money or are you my mother? I forgot which..." Yeah. Yeah. Um, more with- Yeah, yeah, yeah... more with Crack.
12:08
I didn't think it was gonna be this good, to answer your question, though. And, and, and you're right, I had to go get more money, Gil. Correct.
12:14
More with Crack on the other side, and then Elihu Feustel will join us for some teaser talk. It's a numbers game at VSAN, the Sports Betting Network.
12:27
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:37
Don't forget about the Sharp Plays unmatched transparency, with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. Scan the QR code on your screen for more.
12:47
Why don't ya? sharpplays.com, check 'em out. Tawates, Beating the Book, "Dr. Van Nostrand," Seinfeld reference, "Can't wait to hear Crack.
12:55
At least I know he won't, [laughs] he won't say the freaking words," he didn't say freaking, "circadian rhythm out of his mouth. Am I gambling, or am I retaking high school biology?"
13:05
[laughs] Next thing will be, [laughs] next thing will be we rename the contest to Circadia Survivor. Good day, boys. You too, Dr. Van Nostrand. Yeah. Good day.
13:12
Monty Spires, "Gil, this is way off subject, but why can't we get any talk on NASCAR?" You know what, Monty Spires? I used to do a dedicated NASCAR segment every week. Um, you know, it's for, it's for the NASCAR bettors.
13:23
You know what? If there's enough of a groundswell, we'll have NASCAR on. Maybe Phil- We, we hit, we hit the big ones with Phil Bobbit. We do. Maybe Phil Bobbit will join us, uh, more often.
13:32
Rocky B., "Paul Revere by the Beastie Boys. Gilly, I totally quoted that verse with you word for word, LOL." Who could forget?
13:38
And Montreal Max, "Good thing Billy didn't wear one of the shirts we both wear a lot, or he would've blended into that love seat he's on with the two stripes, LOL."
13:46
It's like he's wearing a r- it's like he's l- sitting on a referee [snorts] over there. Uh, let's see. This is, uh, Joe's Big Picks, "Good morning. Thanks to you and Kelly for making me laugh every day.
13:55
Listening to your show, and walked into my living room, and CNBC is on, and the CEO of Fanatics is being interviewed, and under his name, it's talking about parlays, and all he's doing is yelling, 'Go, go, go.'"
14:06
Yeah, I'm sure. Crazy. Oh, God, I'm sure he is. I'm sure he is. I'm sure he is yelling that. Bobby Gettys, "Oops, sorry, Kelly, for distracting you from, uh, talking to Elihu. My bad." [laughs] That was your bad, Bobby.
14:16
[laughs] Uh, he said, "My room was next to Elihu at Circa for Bet Bash. He probably wouldn't remember me, but the few times I've talked to him, he's always been super nice and acts like we've been friends for years.
14:24
Great guy, and hides his genius by just being one of the dudes." He is, yep. "Can't wait for this teaser segment." Yeah, he's great. And this one, uh, on the day before the 9/11 25-year mark- That's crazy...
14:36
which I cannot believe, Tony Hernandez says, "Gentlemen, when Crack mentioned the folks waving flags, it reminded me of when I was in the fire service.
14:43
After 9/11, it was amazing how people reacted whenever we drove the fire engine through town. Everyone was waving and giving us a thumbs up.
14:51
With the 9/11 date approaching after 25 years, I felt it was worth mentioning I was never more proud of my profession. Basically, people are good, and it was demonstrated in the days and weeks after that fateful day."
15:02
Well, well said, Tony. Yep. Amen. Um, and I cannot believe, I real- I cannot believe it's been 25 years from that day. Bill Krackomber joining us once again from the East Coast.
15:13
You can follow him on Twitter at billkrackman. That's billkrackman with a K. Wise Cracks is the name of his podcast as well. Is it Wise Cracks? I always get that. Yeah, Wise Cracks, of course- That's it...
15:23
the name of his podcast, yeah. Yep. Which he does live from Circa Resort Casino, right behind us here. That's right. Yeah, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Billy?
15:29
Once again, you wanted to say something about Nifty, did you? Oh, no, I said, "Did you hear?" Uh, you know, he's okay now, but he had to get rushed to the hospital- What?...
15:37
uh, because he had to pay for his own meal Tues- Oh. [laughs] Tuesday night he had to pay for his own meal, so. [laughs] Yeah, he's all right. He is. He's all right. He's gonna stay. I found out. I heard he's okay. Yeah.
15:44
[laughs] But yeah, no, he, he's, he's okay. [laughs] Um, uh, what I was saying u- up here, so I was talking about this game yesterday. Mm-hmm. So this game landed on three. Every...
15:54
If you lose that game, if you're a l- if you didn't bet the money line, of course, New England, but if you lost that game, shame on you. Don't call yourself a gambler, not even a professional gambler.
16:07
There were threes and three and a halves yesterday. Um, early in the day, my friend that, right downstairs, took a three and a half on the game. There was minus three, minus 0.5, a minus 10.
16:19
Uh, you, at, at worst, you should have pushed this game, so shame on you. He bet Penn National? I think it, Penn- if, if Penn National's an app here, I think he bet Penn National plus the three and a half.
16:30
I seen Hard Rock last night. I seen Rivers. There was a pl- couple places, uh, with three and a half, but there was three and a half up until yesterday. It w- actually went down to three.
16:38
So shame on you if you lose that game. Uh, but yet, even though my friend took the three and a half, I shouldn't embarrass him. He's right downstairs. Yeah, exa- you know, I- He bet a parlay- He goes Fezzik-...
16:48
because he can't help himself... Fezzik sa- Fezzik said the same thing- Yeah...
16:51
this morning, but it's like, yeah, but the starting quarterback got hurt five plays in, so I mean, I understand what you're saying by a numbers perspective, but- Oh, well, the result's the result, though. Yeah.
16:58
The result is the result, right. Yeah. Bec- but the, 'cause the starting quarterback got hurt is kind of... Yeah, you're right. The result is the result. We're only talking about the result of the game, though. Yeah.
17:05
That's all. Sure. Yeah. Yeah. Just said it landed on three. That's it. Yeah. Um, but you know, but I, I understand. Yeah, the, the starting quarterback went down, sure. Um, A.J. Brown went down too.
17:14
I mean, there's, there's... You can, you could talk about so many different things and... But yeah, so he, he likes Dave Portnoy, so he bet something he heard on Barstool. He said, uh, uh, um, um, over Drake May.
17:26
I was like, "Oh, good, good job on the three and a half," and he's like, "No, I lost." I was like, "Wait a minute. Timeout. You were rooting for the Patriots the whole game. What do you mean you lost?"
17:33
He goes, "Yeah, Drake May didn't go over." So I was like, "You're betting parlays?" Like, he knows better, you know? But that's what everyone does, though. He loves the parlays. I, I, I get it, you know? Yep.
17:42
You know, and then I watched, I watched something, uh, on, on a site that he was playing. It wasn't Penn National. It was a big, big site. It was DraftKings. I'll just tell you what it was. It was DraftKings.
17:51
So he, he... I watched something on DraftKings, and I just realized how much the public has just no chance. He's, now he's playing this bonus thing he had on blackjack, and I watched him playing.
18:05
You would sell your soul to the devil to be the house for a couple weeks on DraftKings. I mean, I cannot... I've never... Uh, do I think the games are legit? Yeah, because it was a live dealer, which I told him.
18:18
I said, "You're better off playing the live dealer games than the automated ones, if you're playing." Totally. So I sat there with him for 45 minutes and watched.
18:25
I cannot believe people don't do a simple Google search on basic strategy. This was a $10 ga- or was it 10? I think it was $10 to... I know for a, for a fact it was up to 10,000.
18:37
There are $10 to $10,000 playing live blackjack on the site- And the strategy that was being used by people, half the table were so bad.
18:48
I'm talking about, like, they didn't know if, they, they're hitting, like, 14 versus five they're hitting. Now, that wasn't one or a one-off or anything, that was multiple people. I said, "Listen to them."
18:59
I said, "Listen to me, change the game. Get to, go to another live table. I wanna see something else." It happened again. Five people are at the table, three of them had no clue what they were doing.
19:10
They're hitting soft 19. I actually videotaped, I wanted to videotape a hand. They're hitting ace-eight, soft 19, uh, they're doubling soft 19. I, I seen such crazy things last night. Sure. And it's every night.
19:23
Like, they have no chan- the public has no chance against these, against the casinos playing these iGaming. I've talked about it for weeks on my own podcast, I'm gonna talk about it again after this show.
19:34
I, I just felt, I, I couldn't believe, I guess because w- like you say, Gil, we're so close to the sun by living in Las Vegas, we know basic strategy blackjack.
19:45
Um, I would think that it's so easy just to Google basic strategy. I can't believe how bad the players are online. And by the way, these aren't people with, sitting down with $20.
19:56
These are p- p- people sitting down with 500, $1,000, don't even know that you have to, you know, uh, 12 verse two, that, that, that's a difficult strategy for a lot of people. But I, I'm not saying that.
20:07
I'm saying hands like ace-five I seen someone stay on. I said, "What? What do, what do you mean they sta-?" That guy stayed on ace-five versus a five.
20:15
I, this- These are not, these are not people in a cas- It was so many different- Yeah, these are not people in a casino in Vegas. No. These are online players. No. They have no excuse. They're home. Yeah.
20:22
Yeah, online players- Online- Real money... yeah. Real money. Yeah, which Bill, yeah, as you know, I mean, they're- Yeah...
20:26
sitting at a computer which means, yeah, y- y- we, we, I mean, basic strategy cards that you'd have back in the day, whatever, you can Google that and put it up right next to you on the screen.
20:34
You could be playing on one side- That's [laughs]... and have the card telling you exactly what to do- That's right... every hand on the other screen. That's true. And but plus, I, I, Bill, I know what- Wow...
20:42
the main point, Bill, not even just the players, right?
20:45
Every, you know the online casinos, that every little house rule that they can put in their favor goes in their favor instead of what you might find at a live table out here in a casino.
20:57
This was a three to two blackjack, which was good. Three to two, um, i- i- it's, they're dealing out of a shoe, a live shoe. It's an eight-deck shoe. Let's call it, it's not 2%, but let's call it a 2% game.
21:08
A 2% blackjack game, people are playing to five, six, 8%. That's how bad- Yeah... people were playing on there. And it was across three different tables. I didn't know that goes on.
21:20
I didn't know the players were that bad on these sites. These, this is just a way for these c- this is why iGaming, I talk about it in New Jersey, made more money in July than the brick-and-mortar casinos.
21:30
People are doing it from home where they can't be, you know, shunned or embarrassed or told, you know, a different strategy.
21:37
I don't care if someone doesn't play right as far as, uh, not taking a card, taking a card when they get mad, you get, you can't get mad at your hand 'cause it can help you just as much as it can hurt you.
21:46
But I'm talking about just for their own good playing. I did not know it was at that level that bad. I could imagine all the sites are getting those people that are just...
21:55
I, I'm not trying to make fun of people, I'm just trying to help people by use basic strategy. I'll really give you help. Don't play. Don't even play.
22:02
There's no edge unless you're, you know, unless you have a bonus or some kind of a, uh, you know, you're, you're put- you're sending money in. Um, Elihu, he'll tell, tell you the same things.
22:10
I mean, I don't know what area he lives, but you just don't play. Don't play if you're, if you're, if you're, uh, in one of those jurisdictions, because it's closet gambling. It's hard to stop once you're down money.
22:20
You can lose everything easily. So I, I like to talk about responsible gambling on every platform. And, uh, that was, this was just spontaneous. I noticed it last night. I didn't realize how bad the players were.
22:31
I don't mean to be going off on this, but, uh, it's m- just life lessons. Guys, you have to have more than one out. That game landed 13.10, you should not be losing.
22:39
You should only be winning if you're betting the underdog there. So, um, I seen minus $1.60 money lines, I seen minus $1.95 money line. So, uh, you should definitely have more, if you're serious.
22:50
Now, when I say serious, 100 bucks. If you bet $100 on a game, shame on you if you, uh, lost that game on either side, didn't push it worse. Bill Krackenberger, everybody.
22:59
Bill, uh, we gotta run, but we appreciate the time as always. We'll see you here in studio next week. Yes, sir. Bill- Thank you, guys. Bill Kra- Appreciate it.
23:08
Bill Krackenberger, everybody, @BillKrackman with a K on Twitter. Wise Crack is the name of his podcast, which he does, uh- Eat 'em up, Billy...
23:14
I think, I think Randy McKay is on there every week, I believe, if I'm not mistaken- Awesome... dur- during football season. At least often, that's right. Yeah, at least often. Elihu Feustel on teasers.
23:23
You don't wanna miss this. Next on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:37
Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin.
23:42
Our next guest, I personally owe a big debt of gratitude to, to, and really so many that, uh, have been sports, have been betting on sports for so many years do.
23:52
He was, uh, among o- other things, first of all, he's an author. Uh, his book, Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas, uh, and Wall Street, was one that I had on my shelf many years ago and often consulted.
24:02
His latest book is called Beyond the Odds: Efficient Market Theory and Tools of Warfare, uh, for the Modern Sports Bettor.
24:09
But, uh, more notably for those of us, uh, who have bet, he was a moderator at SBR under the name Justin7, helped so many people so willingly for so many years.
24:19
And of course, was the ghostwriter for the Simon Noble newsletter at Pinnacle back in the day, which I loved and I just inhaled back in the '90s.
24:27
Ladies and gentlemen, if there is a sports gambling or a sports betting hall of fame, he should be in it. It's Elihu Feustel. [laughs] How you doing, Elihu? I'm good. You're very generous. It's all true, man.
24:39
It's all true. Listen, I don't wanna, I, the, you're, you're very humble. Let us dive into what you wanna talk about, 'cause you reached out. You wanna talk about teasers. You were kind enough to come on last year.
24:47
We talked about push rates. What is it that you want to impart? And I'll just leave it to you, and if you could, just sort of speak to us like we're all two years old Okay.
24:59
Teasers are one of the easiest ways to make money, even as the prices on them get worse. So the first thing you're gonna think about when you're betting a teaser is, "How can I get the best price?"
25:10
If you're gonna go shopping for gas, you're not gonna pick the most expensive place. You're gonna look for what is the cheapest place I can buy gas. And buying teasers, betting teasers, is no different than buying gas.
25:22
So what I did is I showed the... If you look on the right side, I show how often you have to win each leg of a teaser to break even.
25:30
So for example, if you're betting at DraftKings, if you're betting a two-teamer at -135, you have to win almost 76%. That's hard. But their four-teamers at +240 are a lot easier to win, and it's a lot cheaper, 73.6.
25:48
There are a lot of retail books, paper heads, where you'll see, uh, similar prices. Two-teamers at 120, three-teamers at 150. Again, you're at that 73.6 spot. Uh, there's a few places that have three-teamers at +160.
26:03
Uh, BetWar is a paper head. I think Bet365 has these also. So if you're able to bet into Bet365, that is, uh, their three-teamers are the cheapest gas, the cheapest teasers in the world.
26:16
So this tells you how often you need to win each leg. Um, if you follow the right play selection, you can win above those on...
26:24
You can beat all these teasers, but you're gonna make the most money when you get the best prices.
26:28
Let me just inter- So basic strategy on teasers has changed over the years because of, you know, last year we talked about how games are more competitive, and, uh, because of that you have a lot more close games.
26:41
So there, the old school of a long teaser was you'd bet favorites of eight and a half to seven and a half, and dogs of one and a half to two da- two and a half.
26:51
But now that s- since the extra point rules have changed, you have smoother distribution, more competitive games, you can bet, you can tease teams of nine and a half to seven and a half point favorites, and those legs are gonna cover about 77.8%.
27:05
And that's my best guess. It could be higher, it could be lower. But what you'll see is that 77.8 is higher than basically every other teaser price out there. So the other thing to look at are the small dogs.
27:16
Again, the old long teasers, plus one and a half to plus two and a half. Not as good, but still pretty good. And they're gonna hit about 76, a little over 76%. Again, all of these are gonna, long term you're gonna win.
27:29
So if you're betting these, you know, if you're... I would probably stick to about 1% of your money on a, a teaser. So if you have, uh, if you're betting with 1,000 bucks, be conservative.
27:41
Just go 10 bucks on these, and, uh, win slowly over time. And now let's... Can you pull up the other thing? Yeah. I'm gonna actually show you how to use this chart in real life- Let's do that...
27:52
uh, with some plays this week. All right. A- and L, just to recap while those guys are pulling it up, the, the, at the top, that was the dogs teasing up is a sl- is a slightly worse than the favorites teasing down?
28:04
Did I hear that correctly? That's correct. Okay. Yes, that's correct. Interesting. So using these plays, there's, uh, six, uh, six basic strategy or, you know, pretty basic.
28:17
So we like the Jags, Jags eight and a half to two and a half. Everyone understands that. Same with Jets, again crossing the three and the seven.
28:24
Now what we have new that we didn't have, uh, 14 years ago, is a, a nine and a half point favorite.
28:30
You have the Chargers, you're teasing it from nine and a half to three and a half, and you look like a moron when you do that until you take their money. [laughs] Okay?
28:37
You're gonna win a little bit more than half of these teasers, you know, the two-teamers. But, you know, if you can make a great play and look like a chump, that's the best thing in the world to do.
28:49
Uh, Packers plus one and a half to seven and a half. Now, some books might be offering only plus one. If it's plus one, uh, you don't tease a six-point teaser with it.
28:58
If you're gonna tease a team that's plus one, it's okay, but you need to tease it a full six and a half points. You don't wanna pay for a six and a half t- point teaser unless you're getting something out of it extra.
29:09
So if you're gonna have to tease a six and a half point teaser with the Giants, I would also tease it with the Chargers, where you're picking up half of the three.
29:16
So that w- the Chargers would be the s- the next best lo- good tease on six and a half. Um, last one are Broncos plus two and a half to eight and a half.
29:25
Now, one thing we did that's a little unusual, normally you don't tease a three-point dog. Hmm. So we're teasing the Giants from plus three to plus nine, but that's 'cause it's not really a th- a straight plus three.
29:36
If you look at the, the prices offshore right now, there's some two and a halves. Ah, it's moving to three. So, but there are two and a halves and threes.
29:44
And actually earlier this morning it was a little closer to two and a half, and so th- that's actually marginal now. But if you have a game that is where half the books are plus two and a half
29:55
minus, you know, even money, and some of them are plus three minus 120, you can tease that at plus two and a half or plus three. That, that becomes a good play.
30:03
But if the market moves all the way to minus three, uh, or mostly three, and it looks like that is... Between the time I sent you this and the m- the market has moved against me a little bit.
30:15
So I w- I actually, I don't think I would bet the Giants plus three right now. Let me, let me step in here. And then the Dolphins, you look at... Sorry? Yeah, let me, let me just ask a question.
30:23
Well, you finish your Dolphins and then I'll ask a question here. Go ahead. Yeah. Now, Dolphins are just a plain pla- plus three. Uh, f- a fairly even plus three.
30:30
In fact, a, a little more on the side of, you know, three minus 115. So Dolphins are a clear pass.
30:37
You don't normally tease plus three unless you're, if you end up getting it at a two-teamer at 110, you could tease three-point dogs. But those are very scarce now. So the- So you had, uh... Go ahead.
30:49
Yeah, and so the, the, it... For me, just the practical, 'cause, uh, then thank you for relating this to week one specific examples.
30:57
But, you know, we just got a tweet, but randomly before the segment, Lawrence Carter, um, appears that MGM Nevada is not offering teasers on the NFL. So, like, just you can't even find them there.
31:07
This is the real issue with these, right? Like, these are, as the years go on, these are becoming less and less available. What, what does the landscape look like to you generally? Well, you're right.
31:17
It's, they're beginning- they're scarce. I had the same problem. I sent money to MGM just to bet teasers, and, like, no teasers. Uh, but the other option you have, you have two other options.
31:27
You have paper heads, which are, you know, black market bookies. You know, it's a whole nother economy. The other thing you can try, which I've dabbled with, is going to Calci and putting in an offer.
31:40
So you make- you do a synthetic teaser. You do an alternate spread for two teams as a combo, and you do the price you're willing to offer and see if anyone matches it.
31:48
And I've seen some things that are not quite as good as I would see with, uh, the green prices I showed you, but you can still- there are still people who are going to try to take these.
32:00
So again, broadly, the, the main takeaway here, what I'm getting also, is just the...
32:04
So the- this notion of long teasers that we have, and again, long teasers, even, even the best long teaser legs, the, the three that we traditionally talk about, one-and-a-half point dogs, two-and-a-half point dogs, either home or, home or road, uh, f- home favorites of seven-and-a-half, between seven-and-a-half and eight-and-a-half.
32:21
Even those were total sensitive. But what I am gleaning here even beyond- Right... uh, there's some, some stuff you're not- Yes...
32:28
you're not giving us, which is that our, our teaser minds should be expanded, that what we thought to be true in the past no longer is. Is that fair? Uh, y- yeah, yes. But I have a question for you.
32:42
Did you say they were t- totals sensitive? Teasers back in the day? Yes. S- t- Yeah... the long legs. Yes. So I disagree with that. Oh, okay.
32:50
I actually broke it down on high totals and low totals, and they perform about the same. Interesting. Hmm. So if a total's 55, you play it the same as if a total's 36. Okay.
33:01
Yeah, that's interesting 'cause we've had this conversation- We've had this conversation... over the past couple years of- Yeah...
33:05
hey, the old stand for long rules, we kind of did throw out a little bit because we d- the totals have gone up, so we thought that didn't matter- Yeah... as much. Yeah.
33:13
Interesting to hear doesn't matter basically at all. Huh. Now, now- And intuitively, it makes sense that you should throw out high totals. If it's a high total- Right...
33:22
points should be worth less, but it doesn't change the outcome like you think it would. So the data rejects my intuition, and we go with the data.
33:30
Now, Elihu, before you go, 'cause we only have 30 seconds here, but to the, to the people out there who think, "Uh, this can't be true," right?
33:38
There are other experts on sports betting who are like, "Ah, this, n- none of this w-" What would you say to them? And we, we know one or two personally, but what would you say to them? Don't believe me.
33:47
Get the data and look at it yourself. Don't believe him. Get the data, look at it yourself. Elihu Feustel, everybody. By the way, you can follow him on Twitter at D_Feustel. That's F-E-U-S-T-E-L.
33:58
Again, uh, his latest book, um, which is, uh, you know, available everywhere, is, uh, is entitled Beyond the Odds: Efficient Market Theory and Tools of Warfare for the Modern Sports Bettor. Elihu Feustel.
34:13
Elihu, always a pleasure, man. Thank you so much. Thank you. There it is. There's the picture of the, uh, book cover as well. He was kind enough to- Great stuff... come on with that- As always... last year.
34:22
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35:41
Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, we have some, uh, news to share. Breaking news. What do you got? Oh boy, we do. We have new...
35:51
I l- I love news that's sort of news, that's, like- Right... not news, but news. Breaking in quotes. R- r- exactly. Okay. Yeah. So Sam Darnold updates.
35:59
First from Adam Schefter, this about f- 20 minutes ago at this point. "Darnold underwent MRI on his hip this morning that team doctors are still reviewing to determine how much time he will miss.
36:10
It is ex- it is expected to be some, but for now the team believes it, as one source described, quote, 'dodged a bullet.'" Hmm. Okay. Okay.
36:19
From Ian Rapoport that just came down 10 minutes ago: "Sam Darnold expected to miss week two, but should be back," quote, "sooner than later."
36:28
That sounds like, that sounds like Rapoport, just "I gotta, I gotta, I gotta say something." I don't, I don't know. I actually thought Schefter's was worse, but okay. Like- No, I think-... the sometime...
36:36
Schefter's at least gives us, uh, an idea that it's gonna be multiple games. Well, at least Rapoport tells us for sure week two. Yeah, but that's obvious- [laughs]... based on Schefter's. These guys are ridiculous.
36:46
Right? Right. Uh, and- We- Well, real quick- Yeah, yeah... and then Josh Jacobs. Yeah. Again, not a lawyer here. Ask Sean Najat. I don't know where we're at with the legal process with J- Josh Jacobs.
36:55
Pleads no contest to misdemeanor battery criminal charges to property today. It's the entire update I have for you. I have no idea what that means for upcoming games. We got tweets. Reading the book.
37:05
Enright: "Randy ain't bothered by nothing. Love him." Talking about Randy McKay. It's true. He's probably not bothered at all. Patrick Kelly: Uh, "Always an incredible hour with Crackman. Thank you.
37:16
Where on the Ohio River was he?" I grew up on the Ohio River. Oh, I probably should've asked him that Auburnist, "Just curious, but will Crack be able to keep getting those limits or will they eventually back him off?"
37:26
Well, Auburnist, he even said himself- Yeah... even if he loses, he may not continue to get those limits. Like, there kind of is no rhyme or reason sometimes for this stuff. Mm-hmm.
37:35
J- so week to week is basically what it is. J&J Watering Hole, "Bill," oh, he's talking about Billy. "How much, if you had to," oh, he's, he's quoting me. He says, "Bill, how much if you had to guess?"
37:45
His answer: "It's a lot." The answer without answering. Get 'em, Bill. Stringfellow Hawk, uh, "I picture Crackman riding all over the state of Pennsylvania in a rental Kia. That's so bleeping awesome."
37:56
Uh, there's the Lawrence Carter tweet once again. "Appears that MGM Nevada is not offering teasers on NFL." This is, this is how quickly this situation develops.
38:03
LHU contacted me earlier in the week all jazzed up about talking about teasers, and then literally from yesterday to today, teasers disappeared in some spots. Took 'em off the board. Yeah, that's incredible.
38:15
Civil Pink, "I have learned the hard way about online blackjack. Unfortunately, you need to play at least $25 tables. It weeds out the riffraff." Brad Bowers, "Australia, it's spring break, no school." My bad.
38:27
Oh, all the kids get to go. Good. That's, there, there, you cracked the code. Thank you, Brad Bowers. Uh, Coom Betts, "I was in South Point last week. I saw a guy hitting hard 18, 19, and 20 at a table." Come on. 20.
38:43
[laughs] What is that- That's a good one... Austin Powers? I like to live dangerously. Uh, [laughs] Blue Sky and Sunshine, "Can you help Crack better understand sentence structure and using the word scene?"
38:54
Hey, look, man, that's part of his charm. That's right. Part of his charm, man. Come on. Del Mind the Gap Radio, "While covering spreads for 30 years, I don't think I've ever seen Miami -61, total 65 versus Florida A&M.
39:07
Crazy line." That is crazy. A -61 spread and a 65 total. Uh, yeah. I am staring at, I'm trying to find the most absurd on my board. Uh, 50, bo- the worst one I can find is 60.
39:23
Miami laying 60, total 65 and a half still. Yeah. It's crazy. It's crazy. Uh, Giuse- Go Rattlers. Giuseppe Betta, "So crazy LHU Feustel is on a Numbers Game today.
39:32
I've spent a lot of hours on teaser research after his appearance last year." Mm-hmm. "Excited to find out if I'm on the right track with all the findings." Well, good on you for doing your own stuff too with it.
39:41
Yeah, absolutely. Uh, I- I'm glad you just said that... Ice Goon, "One day we took Grandma to a Vegas casino and played blackjack. She had a 14. Dealer had a five showing. Told her to stay.
39:51
Grandma said she had to take a card since she was losing. She wouldn't listen and took a card, a 10. Busted. Everyone stayed. Dealer p- dealer popped a five for 20, killing the table." Yep.
40:03
Gordon Die, "Gil, you can still move the line at MGM any way you want, which is better in most cases than a straight teaser. Just do it under spreads link." Yeah, but they did remove the, remove the entire teaser part.
40:14
D Pack 48, "So you actually can parlay all lines up to an extra 11 points and as many teams as you want to get plus odds, and you can use hooks or varying numbers to get over key numbers on individual games on MGM, which might be better than a standard long or a long teaser."
40:30
Okay, g- glad that got tweeted- Good, good. Yeah... and worth pointing out. Yes. Um, I know Zach Cohen does a lot of, uh, manipulating on MGM with those kind of things, uh, manipulating sides.
40:39
I also hope if, as you talk, you brought up doing your own research. I think two big things that we took away from, when was Joe Pete on, last week with us? Mm, can't remember. Good stuff.
40:48
Joe Pete talking about manufacturing the closing line value using prediction markets- Yep... and then LHU just talking about how you can kind of manufacture your own teaser sites too. This is kind of all the same thing.
40:59
Yeah. Little, little, uh, more, more time- Complicated... spent on the prediction markets. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah.
41:04
Old Guy Get Off My Lawn, "Could you please post a clip of the teaser segment to Twitter so those of us listening on iHeart can see the numbers you were speaking about?" It's a good call. Will do.
41:12
Uh, Jim Shogren, "Great teaser info. I miss the early '80s where two team six-point teasers were even money." Damn, yeah, those days are long gone. And Fred Courier, "Thanks for an awesome Thursday. See you both soon."
41:20
Well, I'll tell you what, Fred Courier, uh, it was an awesome Thursday.
41:23
It's gonna be an awesome Friday because tomorrow not only is it Fezzik Friday, so with Steve Fezzik, who got way too many mentions on this show today, by the way, for my taste. My bad.
41:31
Uh, Chris Falica, the Bear, with all of his plays from Fox Sports, but the return, the triumphant return of Dr. Bob talking NFL with us tomorrow on the show. Expect a little more applause from you, Calipendous.
41:45
Uh, s- I was just making notes somewhere about that. I was trying to be dramatic. Uh, and I was thinking about- No...
41:49
how we could have a dramatic Bob Returns open, but I don't think Rob's gonna be able to turn that around in 24 hours. The pioneer. Something I should've thought of a week ago. He prefers legend.
41:57
It's good to have, uh, it'll be good to have Bob back on, for sure. He's like, "You know, Gil, I said that one time and you just won't lo- you just won't let go of it." I'm like, "Yeah, 'cause it was an epic moment."
42:04
My prediction is he comes in very bubbly, in a sunshiny mood as he always is. He, he called me and did, like literally he's like, "Hey, call me back." [laughs] "It's gotta..." So I called him back. I said, "Hey, Bob."
42:17
He launched into 10 minutes on the Kansas City Chiefs before I could even get- Right, right. [laughs] Oh, it's incredible. He was so excited about it. So I, maybe I'll ask him- Oh, man...
42:24
to do the Chiefs thing, but he wanna, uh, he's gonna give a pick- All right... for sure tomorrow on the show. Uh, okay. Can't wait. Tennis plays today. Again, two women's semis tonight at the US Open.
42:35
Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff over 22 and a half games. Jessie Pegula, Aryna Sabalenka over 22. Simple, straightforward, there you go. Let's go, Jessie. Let's go. I'd love to see her win a major.
42:49
L- someone worth nine-point-whatever billion dollars to win a tennis major. Uh, 11-point-something. Don't short her. My, my bad. Don't short the Pegulas. My bad.
42:58
Uh, by the way, we didn't update the September wins in baseball. It does not look good all of a sudden. The Red Sox and Blue Jays refuse to beat the teams they're supposed to. Red Sox lose to the Angels again.
43:07
Blue Jays lose to the Athletics again last night. So this is not looking good all of a sudden, where we were trending great, and now the Red Sox and Blue Jays are both two wins behind the leader or the leaders.
43:18
I think it's a leader, right? The, the, uh, Dodgers' sole possession of the lead. Uh, Red Sox 28 to one, most wins in September. Blue Jays plus 23, 25 most wins S- S- in September. They gotta get off the schneid there.
43:30
And then NFL season longs, Caleb Williams passing yards, 20 to one. Passing yards leader, I should say, 20 to one. Nick Bonito, Defensive Player of the Year, 14 to one. And Niners in action tonight.
43:39
Uh, I have them over nine and a half wins on the season. As far as tonight, uh, Niners plus three and a half. Didn't get the best of it.
43:45
It's four now, but Niners plus three and a half in Melbourne, Australia, where it is not a school night. Over 100,000 are supposed to be there on Friday morning. Can't wait. Can't wait to watch it.
43:55
Uh, I do have one bet tonight, but I am avoiding side and total, and I don't imagine... Oh, I, I, uh, never gonna count anything out live, but I, I have a feeling I'm sitting on the sidelines for this one.
44:04
I'm t- I'm tailing Nick Whalen, though. Tailing Whalen. That should definitely be a segment. Midland Building, Taylor Whalen. Yeah, Taylor Whalen. I'm tailing Whalen, Christian McCaffrey over four and a half receptions.
44:14
I do like that one with the, uh, banged up receiving corps for the Niners. And then week one bets real quick. Bucs/Bengals under 51 and a half. Jags/Jets teaser already for me. Jags/Texans teaser.
44:24
Kyler Murray 25 plus rushing yards. Tailing Matt Brown on that. Cowboys laying two and a half. Broncos plus three 120. Nice job. Kelly building all over the place. Zachary Cohen on the show earlier today.
44:36
Zach Cohen on the show earlier today. 49ers plus four tonight in Melbourne. Titans, money line versus the Jets.
44:44
Speaking of the Jets, he's got Geno Smith to throw a pick at minus 103, and then the Colts, Alec Pierce over 44 and a half receiving yards from, uh, Zachary Cohen.
44:54
Uh, he also had a couple college football, or a few college football. He added a third. Cal plus three and a half, Iowa State plus 14 and a half, and Arizona State was the late add at plus 14 and a half.
45:04
Zach firing, uh, every which way on college football as well. Uh, do I have anybody else with picks today? I'm not sure if we do. No, that's it. That's it. Yeah. It's all right. That's it. I was gonna say. That's it.
45:12
Could've helped you out there. That's all right. You just leave me hanging. You're- You, you were very chatty with Elle Hu. That's one of your favorite guests ever. I, s- I, w- I love whenever we have Elle Hu on. Yeah.
45:22
Oh, you know I love betting teasers, and it's- Yeah... usually we're having teaser conversations with him, and most, most of the conversations around teasers these days have just turned into you can't bet them.
45:31
You've been priced out of it by books, or the books are taking them down. That dude has had more influence on me than anybody. Seriously. Yep. Sports betting perspective.
45:39
And all out of the kindness of his heart, writing newsletters and- Mm-hmm... moderating forums. Give us your head patch. Amazing. Amazing guy. We've done all we can do. Prop Points is next with John Hanson. Enjoy.
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