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Sep 11, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 11, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 11, 2024 | Hour 1
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Transcript
0:00
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1:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
1:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Everybody taking us in, we appreciate it.
1:17
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, where sports betting lives from Circa, the mothership right here in downtown Las Vegas. Uh, Kelly, good morning, sir. What is going on with the sky?
1:28
Well, [laughs] oh, you mean like the, uh, the sandstorm that's going on outside? Is that what that is? I have no idea. I have no idea. Did you notice there was a haze or something? Uh, uh, y- y- no, yes, I noticed.
1:36
Yes, I meant to text you about it. I, no, we did not talk about this pre-show [laughs] obviously. No.
1:41
The, uh, I meant to text you about it 'cause it's another great example of how terrible I am at checking any type of weather things here in Vegas. I did the same thing. I looked.
1:49
I was like, "Is this, is this real clouds or is this something?" It's something- But-... because it so, so sh- shows, pardon me, sunshine all day long. Okay. So it is a s- is it a sandstorm or a fire?
1:58
Uh, it's probably, it's probably wind just kicking up sand. Or wind moving- Or maybe it's fire. I don't know. This is so bad. That's your Doppler- When, when it-... radar forecast I mean, when it rains like- Sorry...
2:06
five days a year out here- Right. It's, it's like-... like, it's, you don't get in the habit of checking weather apps very often. At all, but there is a strange haze over the city. Yeah.
2:14
Um, did you watch the debate last night? Did you- I did. Yeah. I did watch most of it. Oh, did you really? I did watch most of it. I mean, it was pretty- If you- It was pretty lengthy. A lot of it was repeated, you know?
2:23
If, if you didn't like Kelly Bidlin on weather, now you get Kelly Bidlin- [laughs]... on politics. Um, you, you, I'm very proud of you for watching most of that. No, thank you. Thank you. Good for you. Yeah, yeah.
2:31
Well, your civic duty was performed. That's right. Well done. I, yeah, w- was it on TV too, and I went back and forth a lot? Yeah, because, you know, there's a lot of repe- uh, repetition of their points.
2:41
Oh, you f- Like, I get it... you find the candidates repetitious? Yes, I do. [laughs] Yes. I don't know if you've ever seen a debate before.
2:47
[laughs] Um, it was, it was interesting from a, uh, again, a betting line standpoint.
2:51
Again, we talk about the election here apolitically speaking, but I think, I think the biggest takeaway from it last night was that the moderator from ABC News, David Muir, was sort of the central figure- Yeah...
3:02
of this debate, and if you are a Trump supporter, the, the sort of most common reaction was, "Oh, he, he only challenged former President Trump.
3:12
He didn't challenge Vice President Harris at all," and so it was a, a skewed debate. That was the average Trump supporter reaction.
3:20
I think the, the person that w- is supporting Vice President Harris, their reaction, unlike the previous one between former President Trump and President Biden, where nothing was challenged by moderators on CNN- Yeah...
3:33
I think th- their position was, well, uh, you know, if Kelly Bidlin says to me, "Gil, uh, y- you're eating, uh, cats and dogs in a certain city," that a moderator should be allowed to sort of challenge that comment- To, uh, to clear up the facts...
3:47
and say, and say, "Local officials, just so everyone knows, have found that no pets have been harmed in the process."
3:51
So, so that was, that was an interesting reaction, that it was a much more, uh, sort of proactive response from the moderators, and as far as the betting lines are concerned, and we will talk about this, we're less than two months from now until the election, uh, before the debate at BetMGM Ontario, where apparently they're allowed to take, uh, bets on the American election north of the border, we love you, Game Plus, uh, it was minus 135 on Trump, plus 110 on Kamala Harris prior to the debate.
4:20
After the debate, it had gone f- to, uh, former President Trump minus 120, Vice President Harris minus 110, and this morning that has flipped to Vice President Harris being minus 120 and former President Trump being minus 110.
4:33
So for those who are interested in, in that kind of thing, that's where that is after the debate that Kelly Bidlin watched. How about you? That's right. Yeah, I mean, I think no surprise there on the odds move, right?
4:43
No, I don't think so. Yeah. How many debates have you watched in your young life? I mean, I'd like to think, well, I mean, well, well, you know, I don't appreciate this line- [laughs]... of questioning, okay?
4:51
So what, what do you mean? And, uh- Am I suggesting something?
4:53
[laughs] Yeah, I feel like you're suggesting something, and, uh, you know, if there was a random NBA regular season basketball game on last night- Yeah, no... would I, would it have- No, of course not...
5:01
would it have made the screen? Probably not, but, uh- If there, if there was a mech game last night It, you know what, Gil? I'd like to think that I watched most of all of them, okay? Okay.
5:10
But, but I'm v- I'm very truthful about last night. Like, come on. I know. As, as soon as I hear the, the, the same point brought up the fifth time, I'm like, "And mute TV two, and turn up volume TV one."
5:20
[laughs] What is the, what is the lowest level sporting event you would have watched over that? A matchin' game? Oh, yeah, for sure. For sure. I mean, CFL without a doubt I would- CFL you would watch over?
5:29
Oh, yeah, of course. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, that's just un-American right there. Give me a, give me a great, uh, Ottawa Red Blacks game. Uh, yeah, absolutely. For sure. Sure. Yeah.
5:35
A little Alouettes and the Argonauts, that kind of thing? Yeah, Alouettes, yeah. Okay. Um, you know, I got a, uh, a tweet yesterday from somebody who was talking about the Megapod.
5:43
By the way, beating the book Megapod, which tr- tremendous response and, and downloads the first one again.
5:49
I'm always humbled by the response to that show, and just, and in Guessing Lines as well, which airs here, and then we put it in podcast form. That's even, um, more awesome from everybody who listens.
6:00
They're loyal for 14 years now doing these.
6:02
Uh, Joe Peta, by the way, Joe Peta will be the guest on this week's Megapod, but someone, uh, I think correctly, I wanna say it was, uh- It was our buddy, uh, you know, um, Jordan, was it, was his name.
6:13
I always say, "Oh, is that your, uh, oh, is that your real name?" Anyway, he, he said, um, on Twitter, "Hey, could you, in the middle of the Megapod, could you r- run back the picks?" Hmm.
6:22
'Cause you guys go off on some- Yeah... tangents, and so it's, yeah, I might not get to them, and so I just need a recap. We like to do it on this show.
6:29
We, we remind ourselves, Kelly and I do, that once we do guessing lines and we give the picks, we don't often come back to our picks until Friday. Yeah. And we don't wanna do that.
6:39
Well, and I, I s- I think especially for you, right? 'Cause i- a lot of times I've made bets on Sunday- Yeah...
6:44
for, on, off of openers, and we're doing guessing lines, but I know it's, as [laughs] you're going through it, it's, "Oh, hey, that number's way off." I put them in right afterwards. It's probably gonna be a bet for me.
6:52
Yeah. So yeah, yeah. We usu- we'll usually try to do it on Tuesdays, but we're here on Wednesday doing it. Um, I feel like a complete square ball this week. Is that allowed?
6:59
[laughs] Hey, Kelly and the Square Bears hop on board, buddy. I feel completely like a square ball.
7:03
These, these are the plays that I have made, and this is all based on our sort of our guessing lines, uh, exercise, which again, the point is it's sort of an interactive thing.
7:11
You sh- you know, hopefully, you're doing your own guessing lines while we're doing it, and the point of that is to sort of extract value. But I ended up with four favorites, which I don't ever like that.
7:22
One of which is, and I wanted to get in, and, and one of them is worse, uh, uh, one, one of my plays is worse than what it's available at now.
7:28
But what I ended up with was, um, the four that I sent you, which was, I took Miami, right? 'Cause I thought Miami being under three, and they were what they were, one at the time.
7:39
Let me get s- I'm gonna get the exact lines that I bet 'cause I don't wanna, wanna make up, so I'm gonna call it right now. But it's, I think I got it one or one and a half. Um, let me make sure. Yes.
7:48
And so now it's two or two and a half on that. So, um, yeah, one and a half is where I got the Miami Dolphins against the Buffalo Bills. Again, that's Thursday night.
7:56
I didn't think there was any justification, um, for that being under three. I know there's a lot of people who said, "Of course it should be under three." Well, I don't see it that way.
8:04
Uh, Miami minus one and a half was where I got that at. It's about two consensus now. I got the Ravens at nine and a half at minus 115, 'cause I, I figured this is going to 10, so let me grab it before it gets to 10.
8:15
I think- Oh, I'm gonna pause you right there. Yes. Interesting thing going on in the market with this today. Yes. [laughs] It's, like, almost blanketed nine and a halves yesterday. We have 10s, but we also have nines.
8:27
[laughs] Where are the nines? There's, uh, Circus got nine, DraftKings got nine. Okay. There you go. Uh, we've got, let's see, a couple s- couple offshores with 10. Station's [laughs] got 10.
8:37
South Point's got nine and a half. So we're scattered throughout. I, I, I guess we should mention Lamar Jackson, but I don't really know that I'm reading into that at all. I'm not. Mispracticed on Monday. Yep.
8:48
The dude, i- i- if it's not in his actual contract, at this point, it's just gotta be an understanding between him and Harbaugh that he's, uh, he's gonna regularly take some practices off. Practice optional?
8:57
Yes, practice is optional. Um, so I got the Ravens at minus nine and a half 'cause I think they're gonna absolutely roll the Raiders.
9:03
This, this feels like one of those typical Ravens home games where they just beat up on somebody- Yeah... and win by 30. Anyway, that's what I'm going with. I completely agree.
9:12
I, I was s- I was a little stunned yesterday with Drew. Drew and I were oppo on everything. Yeah. I was a little stunned when he said he was on the Raiders. Yeah.
9:20
Um, now this is, this one I got at a worse number that currently exists. I got the Cowboys at minus six and a half. I thought that was gonna go to seven against the Saints.
9:30
Nope, it's six a lot of places now on the Cowboys. Uh, o- only a couple that I'm seeing out there. Oh, okay. Mainly six and a half. Okay. But- If, wow, that's a good point, though. If this goes,
9:40
I mean, if it's five and a half, I'm definitely on the Cowboys' side. At six, though, even I gotta think about that. I just, I don't know what we know. I don't...
9:47
Did we learn anything about the Saints against the Panthers? N- not, not at all.
9:49
I don't wanna not give them credit, but at the same time, I just think, you know, that's part of, if, if you step back and you think about, uh, what these two teams will, what these two football teams did.
9:58
By the way, there's a lot of, you know, listen, there's a lot of Deshaun Watson hate after his performance week one. I know there's off-the-field stuff that create hate as well. But as far as his performance- Hmm...
10:08
on the field, there's a lot of hate about that. But he did play the Dallas Cowboys- Yeah... defense, um, which is filled with, with players and filled with so much talent.
10:18
So, like, I don't, you know, for everything, I don't wanna overreact, and for me, the Cowboys are, are a way more talented team than the, than the Saints are.
10:25
So, like, like, let's just, I think both those teams, Saints and Cowboys, right? Did they probably get a bump by, you know, oddsmakers, a lot of bet- betters out there, just a lot of casual betters out there?
10:35
Yeah, they probably got a bump after week one, each of them, right? Saints absolutely dismantling the Panthers, and then the Cowboys going into Cleveland and picking up that win. But I think you kinda hit on it.
10:45
What is more sustainable? What do you actually trust in being more real in what you saw? And it's more to the Cowboys than the Saints to me. Yeah. So I, I don't, I don't disagree with that play at all.
10:53
The other one I grabbed, 'cause people, people are convinced I hate the Lions. Remember last year, I would never power rank- Yeah, yeah, yeah... the Lions above, like, eight or nine at the end? You hate them, yep.
11:01
Yeah, I hate the- [laughs] I hate the Lions. Here's who I hate according to people. I hate the Lions. I hate the Bills. I love this. Um, I got the Lions- Every tennis player not named Dega.
11:09
[laughs] Every tennis player not named Dega, hate them, too. That's right. I got the Lions minus seven against the Buccaneers.
11:16
I think, you know, Todd Wright, our buddy, um, who used to come on, uh, our show regularly, talk fantasy with us, Todd Wright, the greatest- Hmm...
11:23
sports radio, uh, host there ever was, in my opinion, when he did Up All Night with Todd Wright over at ESPN Radio. He said to me before that Lions-Rams game, Sunday night, he had mentioned this off-season.
11:33
He goes, he thinks the winner of that Lions-Rams game is going to host the NFC Championship against that same opponent. Interesting. Okay. And so the Lions end up winning this.
11:42
Um, we'll do our power rankings tomorrow, I believe. Um, we'll see. I think I, I think I have the Lions higher than ever before, Lions people who think I hate the Lions.
11:51
Uh, but I got them, uh, minus seven here against the Buccaneers, who similarly, uh, with the Saints, I don't know that we learned anything from one week.
11:59
Again, I'm fighting recency, I'm fighting the general consensus recency bias on this stuff.
12:04
Just because Baker Mayfield went 24 of 30 against the sieve of a Washington defense who was no account, no tackling, no covering, no nothing, no talent, uh, I don't think the Bucs are necessarily great.
12:16
Now, they may cover, and I may be wrong here, but as far as, uh, my f- my feelings on it right now, those four bets were made. Yeah, this is, uh- All favorites. I don't like that, though.
12:25
I'm kinda looking at the over in that game, even though it keeps, it keeps rising, so I sh- probably should've bet it already. You've got major, major Tampa Bay cluster injuries in that secondary. Yep.
12:34
So that is gonna be a big t- big-time advantage for Detroit. Like the Cowboys on turf, like the Lions on turf, like all that. Uh, we'll come back. Some baseball. Mark Borchardt, base winner on the other side.
12:45
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:01
With the NFL underway, hey, the NFL started? There's never been a better time to become a VSiN Pro subscriber.
13:06
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13:13
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13:25
Don't wait. Head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up and start betting smarter today. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, Numbers Game.
13:36
We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the, uh, the feedback. Um, Steven Brosek1870, "Let's have a good show today," he says, Kelly. Uh, "No Illini slander.
13:45
Didn't know I would have two mics and a Kelly Bidlin on my hit list by week three." [laughs] Well, uh, you know, uh, yeah, when it comes to Illini and me, better watch out.
13:53
Oh, you hate- It's always the team I go after... you hate the Illini, traditionally. [laughs] Traditionally. A tradition unlike any other from Kelly.
13:58
Uh, Sean Fox plays, "I feel you're missing something on the new kickoff rules. Instead of giving them the ball at the 35, why not just move the kicker back five yards?
14:06
Uh, should lead to less touchbacks and teams forced to not bring it out, and let's move college football overtime to the 35 as a priority at least." He's making all kinds of rule changes, Sean.
14:16
Did the, uh, did you see the, the, the kicks after the safeties i- in Seattle? 'Cause they are further back, I believe, and it was like, it was comical with that one.
14:25
[laughs] That was the weirdest half of football of the entire weekend. Yeah. [laughs] Oh, it was, boy, yeah. They were in jail the whole first half.
14:30
If you, yeah, if you're, you were on Seattle in Survivor, it was no fun. Yeah, that- Like, can anybody block? I wish I had been smart enough in the moment to have been like, "Okay, now just hit Seattle up."
14:40
I, I, I hear you- 'Cause, 'cause you can't have two halves like that...
14:42
but when you see offensive lines, though, struggle like that and get hurt like that is, it's scary, especially when you knew that was one of their major problems heading into the season. A couple more here.
14:51
This is Old Guy Get Off My Lawn. He says, "I love guessing lines back on, uh, the Beating The Book podcast.
14:55
After Gil gives his guess, I would really like to hear the opening line, the opening line, along with where the line is now. Heard it on some of the games, but not all of them. Thanks for the great show."
15:04
All right, Kelly, there's one in the suggestion box for you. Oh, we'll step it up next week. And then Loose Cannon- Actually, Brent is working on that for the graphics too, so you're, you're a- Loose Cannon...
15:12
you're, you're ahead on us. You're ahead on us. You ever see an old Sidney Poitier movie where he goes, "She's a loose cannon"? Uh, Loose Cannon says, "Darts is the cutoff.
15:20
I would watch darts over the debate, but I'm not watching table tennis over the debate." [laughs] Are we talk- we talking about, like, the, the- Yeah... the 16-year-old dart thrower- [laughs]...
15:27
who's, like, really, like, 34, but, like, did you see that guy? You've seen that guy, right? Great Americans, everybody listening. [laughs] That's great. We'll watch the debate.
15:34
See, the thing about darts is you could play darts while watching the debate. I see. This is the office that Lincoln and Washington once inhabited. [laughs] We're like, "I'll watch darts."
15:42
[laughs] Um, [laughs] let's talk some baseball. Special numbers game investigation reveals that the baseball season still continues even though football has started.
15:51
Mark Borchardt from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert at Basewinner, basewinner.com, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, Mark was happening. Oh, Gil, it's a t- you know, this is a tough day for me.
16:02
When, uh, when you handicap, uh, the first column in my chart is always the date, and it's a really tough... I, I don't know why this year's really a lot harder. 9/11 is just really... It's, I'm really struggling today.
16:14
Yeah.
16:14
And, uh, and it's, I, I think that, that, that for me, I, I think it's really telling, if you go, and I'm not gonna get too political, but if you go to the, to the Yahoo WHAT'S TRENDING, 9/11 is 10th, and, like, Tyreek Hill sixth.
16:27
It's like, "What? What's going on?" And I don't wanna be like the old guy on the lawn like you just said. Uh, some- I don't know. It's just, it's bothering me, so that's... It's really tough.
16:35
This is a, this b- this is a tough day for me, Gil. I, I feel your, I feel your emotion. 23 years since 9/11. That is hard to believe, and you're right, Mark.
16:46
I understand your sentiment that with the passage of time, um, you know, things get forgotten, and, and perhaps that shouldn't be. So, uh, your sentiment is appreciated. Um, no artful segue to this.
16:58
Um- Well, I think, I think one thing I can say is that to, to take it to baseball handicapping, is I, I do have value playing against the Mets and playing against the Yankees today, and I'm not gonna do, I'm not gonna make a play against the New York teams today.
17:10
Uh, I think there needs to be a sign of reverence, and, and, and that's, I guess, my special way of showing a sign of reverence to New York. Wow.
17:16
But, but, like, but, like, why can't we have the Mets versus the Yankees on 9/11? I know, I know it's hard for MLB to get standardized baseballs, but let's, let's, let's make that a tradition.
17:26
I, I would love to see that personally. Yeah, for real. You know, the, the- I'm all for that...
17:30
it's interesting, um, you know, the memories of post 9/11, um, you know, the, the game where, uh, former President Bush threw the pitch right down the middle was a Yankees game, but Mets fans remember it as, "It was actually us that had the first game afterwards."
17:46
And they, I, I know some Mets fans who are still rubbed wrong by that, but either way, it was, uh, it was absolutely, uh, indelible in our minds as, as part of the, uh, the days after, or I should say the couple weeks after, uh, the tragedy of 9/11.
17:58
So that, that, you know what, Mark? I mean, a, a hat tip to you for taking that approach.
18:03
I was gonna ask you about those Mets, uh, beyond today's game, which is the Mets lost last night, the Braves won, and that means they are both tied, the Braves and the Mets, for the final position in the National League playoff picture, the number three wildcard spot.
18:17
If I look at strength of schedule, and obviously we're on September 11th, so the schedule is, you know, 17 games left for each of these two teams.
18:25
But if I look at strength of schedule, the New York Mets, along with the Giants, but the New York Mets tied for the hardest remaining schedule, a 551 aggregate winning percentage of the remaining opponents.
18:37
They've got seven left against the Phillies. They got three left against the Brewers, and then three left against these very same Braves.
18:45
What is, what do your numbers tell you in terms of the, uh, the probabilities of the Braves versus the Mets getting that final wildcard position?
18:54
Well, I knew you were gonna ask me this question, um, and so I have it right, right, right in front of me. I've got the Braves at 59.3% and the Mets at 47.9.
19:03
But I think that when we were on the show last week, uh, I think it was last week, you had mentioned that, you know, are these teams gonna really play for, for everything?
19:11
And with the Phillies, you wonder, I mean, is that first seed worth maybe getting a guy injured? I, I don't know. I mean, that's a question that the front office of the Phillies has to answer.
19:20
But it will play a part whether they, you know, if they're gonna start Zach Wheeler or pitch Zach Wheeler for, you know, seven innings in a game or go, go to a guy, a rookie, and that's really gonna play a part in it.
19:31
And I think it played a part, Gil, in your handicap, uh, uh, for the Diamondbacks to have the best record this month, and I thought it was, I thought it was a really good approach and, and something that I think maybe would be, uh, the, something the market doesn't, doesn't consider, Gil.
19:44
Well, I appreciate that. Gi- give us the percentage again that your numbers say on the Braves and the Mets. Uh, Braves 59.3, uh, Mets 47.9, and this takes no subjectivity.
19:53
It's just all objectivity based on pitching ratings, uh, batting ratings, that s- that sort of thing, and it, it takes into all, all the games in the schedule.
20:00
But I thought what was really interesting with the Braves, Gil, is if you look at the xFIP in baseball, and this is something that we both love to look at- Mm-hmm... uh, they're the top team in baseball.
20:09
The number one in baseball, and yet they're still struggling to try to get into the playoffs. So I think that, I thought that that was a pretty interesting stat.
20:16
Seth Lugo, great outing against the, uh, the Yankees yesterday for the Royals. He's 16 and 8. His ERA is now sub-3. Still got no shot at winning AL Cy Young, right? It's Scoobles. I think it's Scooble. Yeah. Yeah.
20:30
I, I mean, you know what's interesting is Scoo- the, the strikeout race is so tight, uh, between Sale and Scooble, and we have a guy on the BetUS MLB Show, uh, Kenny McAndris, and he had 80 to 1 on Scooble.
20:43
And that, that thing probably won't get there, but at least it, it's, it, it's got a little bit of legs, Gil. So I wanted to shout out to, to him on, on the show and, and to really kind of point out that strikeout race.
20:53
I think that's, that's one of the mo- You know, Gil, this is like a, you know, I, I look at, at baseball like a book. It's, it's six chapters, right?
21:01
Each month's a chapter, and usually that sixth chapter's the most exciting chapter.
21:06
You got pennant races, you got seeds, you got all kinds of things going on in that sixth chapter, and this sixth chapter's gonna be boring.
21:13
I mean, [laughs] I hate to say it, but there's, there's really not a lot of suspense other than what we t- we, we just touched upon, uh, the Mets and, and, and the Braves, Gil.
21:21
Yeah, by the way, the Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker, which is tried and true over the years, he, he gets it almost right every time, it's reflected in the betting market.
21:29
He's got Sale and Scooble now respectively with huge leads in both the National League and the American League per his formula.
21:36
The only other thing I wanna note is that Paul Skenes has crept up all the way to the number three spot in the Cy Young race. Oh.
21:44
I don't say that pertaining to the Cy Young race, but I do wanna ask you real quick before you get to your picks about the, uh, National League Rookie of the Year race. Do you think it's over?
21:55
If you had a vote right now, who would you have, and then who, w- who would you bet at this point? Oh, it's, it's, it's Merrill for me. Okay. And I just, I guess I'm a traditionalist.
22:04
The guy shows up every day and he plays, and I think you'd have to be...
22:07
And, and you can look it up, the, the awards, uh, throughout the years, uh, last 30 years, I guess, if you will, and I think a lot of people share that sentiment, too.
22:15
The pitcher can win, but it's gotta be that much better, so if there's ever a debate, it goes, for me at least, to the, to the position player, Gil. All right. What you got today, Mark?
22:25
Well, it's a huge card, Gil, and I mentioned that I'm not playing, uh, against the Mets or the Yankees, and there's value on both those teams for those of you who want to do that.
22:34
Uh, but I have two parlays that are really good. I like Cleveland in maybe brain-dead parlay, uh, Cleveland minus 220 with Detroit minus 175. Uh, that pa- pays plus 128. And then I've got another parlay.
22:46
This is a bigger parlay. I've got Philly, Minnesota, the Padres plus a run and a half in a really low-scoring run environment. Three-teamer, uh, pays plus 216.
22:56
Philly, Minnesota, San Diego Padres full game plus one and a half. And then this is the straight game that I like today, the, the, the side play, if you will, uh, is Pavetta and the Red Sox, uh, versus Baltimore.
23:07
I've got this game priced minus 225. It's in the market at minus 138. You know, Pavetta, 34.4% strikeout percentage last 17 median.
23:17
That's in the 99th percentile, and if that's not enough, his stuff plus is in the 98th percentile.
23:22
So you got those two really good numbers going in with an offense that I think's comparable, uh, the, the Red Sox offense with the Orioles.
23:29
So that's my side play, and those are the two parlays that I'm gonna go with, uh, today, Gil. All right, Marky Mark, Funky Bunch not pictured.
23:35
Thank you, @basewinner, basewinner.com, and the BetUS podcast, which he does every single day as well. Thanks, man, appreciate it. Thank you, Gil. Coming back, Kelly and I on the NFL. Overreaction or not an overreaction?
23:48
That is next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game live from Circa, it's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. By the way, we never say our, uh, Twitter handles.
24:01
You notice that? No, we don't. We just throw 'em on the screen. Uh- Yeah, they're, they're always on there if you're watching them... I guess I say @bettingthebook when I read the tweets all the time. Yeah.
24:07
But, uh, Kelly Bidlin is at, uh, is strangely not @kellybidley. It's @kellybidlon. [laughs] Uh, he spells his name E-Y K-E-L-L-E-Y B-Y-D-L-O-N. Yeah, it was not that for a long time.
24:19
Do you remember the primetime action night when, when Matt- I do, and we gave you so much Matt specifically. Yeah, I was gonna say, Matt discovered it was free. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Um, and then was, was, was...
24:28
I don't think he was gonna leave that night until I, until I- Chased... grabbed the username, yeah. Well, because he has, uh, because he has the name Matt Brown- Yeah...
24:36
and there's roughly five bajillion Matt Browns, he couldn't believe that you wouldn't take advantage of having your own name. So he went, uh, uh, @mattbrownm2, right? Yeah. I know...
24:44
So from producing here for years, I know way too much about people's emails and Twitter handles, uh, at this network. His email, though, I can't remember, 'cause there's so, there's so many [laughs] letters going on it.
24:53
Oh, uh, speaking of Matteo Brown, uh, he will be on- He's on next, right? Yeah... he will be on with Stormy today. How about that? There we go. The band is back together. Yeah.
25:00
Hopefully she won't, uh, have him eating chips that will Put him near death. Do you remember that? Oh my gosh, yeah. Um, also I'm supposed to- What was, what was that segment called?
25:09
Bets or consequences, something like that, right? Bets or consequences, and apparently Matt had to eat one of these ch- Yeah... tortilla chips that is designed to, like, kill you.
25:17
Yeah, it was like, you know, the thing going around on the internet- Yeah... like two years ago- Right... with those chips that kill, like, I, yeah. Yeah. That had people dying basically. Matt almost perished. Yeah.
25:24
Like for real. He did. He almost died. I'm also supposed to hang out with Matt Brown today because there's a challenger tennis tournament in Vegas. You were telling me this. Where are they playing this at? At Darling.
25:33
So I'm gonna go bet low-level tennis. Nice. [laughs] That, it, tennis is one of the best sports- Oh, man... though to bet while you're there. I love it. Like, while you're in attendance. Ah, it's so good.
25:44
But you gotta, you can't heckle though, 'cause then they'll, the ump will get mad at you. I'm actually trying to think if there's another sport I like to bet more when I'm in attendance.
25:51
I think tennis might be number one. Really? Yeah, just live betting when you know the action's right in front of you. Kelly Billand watches the Bates, likes to bet live tennis. Um- Delray, Delray Beach Open? Oh, man.
26:02
Oh, Delray. So many days just lay, yeah, just ooh. Delray Beach Open. Uh- Few cocktails in me, just spread out. [laughs] So much room, middle of the day. No, you had a drink? No.
26:09
No, well, it's so great, Gil, 'cause you can walk to the bars, and then the beach, you know? It's a really great location. We do get tweets. Cowboys_Cubs1, "I'm sorry.
26:17
The level of hate in your first segment, uh, Kelly Bin Laden's hate for America, and Gil's hate for the Bills and Lions has me thinking you both need a hug. I love you mothers," he said.
26:25
[laughs] "Have a love-filled day." Um, Judd O'Connor, "Have you tell, have you two found yourself leaning a lot towards favorites this weekend?" Yeah. "I'm getting spook putting together my five." Yeah. Yeah.
26:33
If you just heard the first segment, I'm all about it. Uh, Numbers Guys points out that the Saints, after one week, are number one in DVOA. [laughs] There you go. Aaron Schatz's, uh, catchall stat over there.
26:44
Not catchall, but really granular play-by-play over there at FTN Sports. Um, and he says, "Greatest sports radio show of all time?" He says, "It's Game Time with Steve Zabin. Where you at and what you haulin'?"
26:55
I was supposed to do something with Zab this year, Fridays. Yeah, I remember you saying that. Going into football. Yeah. I don't know what happened to Zab. I gotta call Zab. Uh, RDW, uh, let's see.
27:04
"Both men's and women's US Open final had an average of only 1.8 million viewers. Brutal. I know it could be hotter, but they should move to August when there's no football that counts yet."
27:14
Well, that's the issue, is that the finals always occur, well, not, not the, uh, the women's final is on college football Saturday. But the men's final is always during the first day of the NFL [laughs] season, so.
27:24
Why don't they just, like, break- Yeah... why don't they just move it up a day? It's a tradition, man. [laughs] It's a tradition.
27:29
Yeah, but you, you could, I know we traditionally have the women's final on Saturday and the men's on Sunday. But if you just move the whole thing up a, a day, you- Yeah... you completely avoid that NFL thing.
27:38
Yeah, they're not gonna move it. Um, they make so much money in that tournament for sponsorships. Oh, yeah, I bet. It's like a half a billion dollars they net from the US Open. It's incredible.
27:47
Uh, and now for a segment, ladies and gentlemen, that, uh, strangely might cannibalize one of our Friday segments. We call it NFL Week Overreaction or Not an Overreaction, and here's our fancy intro. No? [laughs] No, no.
27:57
All right. Not, not at all. Is this, is this gonna cannibalize our, uh, Are We Sure We Know thing on Friday? Um- Conversations Kelly and I should have had- Maybe... before the show. Yeah, I don't know. May- maybe.
28:07
I don't know. I don't think so. Okay. Might, might, there might be some tie-ins. There might be some similarities, but yeah. Okay. All right.
28:13
I mean, yeah, I think you always gotta do the NFL Week 1 overreaction, especially on a Wednesday. You gotta wait a full two days, then talk, then talk about it. [laughs] How do you wanna do this?
28:21
You wanna throw them out? Um, I'm just gonna, yeah, I'm just gonna throw some things at you, okay? I wrote down a bunch of notes. Oh, okay.
28:24
It feels like, uh, it feels like are the general consensus coming away from week one. 49ers are the best team in the NFC. Overreaction, not an overreaction? Not an overreaction, because I thought that before the game.
28:35
I thought they were the best team in the NFC all off-season. Okay. Yeah, not an overreaction.
28:39
I feel, I feel like that is, and I would even include myself in the group of, I don't know, I had a bunch of teams kind of all, I had Eagles, Lions, uh, 49ers all right there.
28:47
I think I, even I fall in the group of yes, 49ers have now taken the lead. The Niners were better than the Lions and Eagles and whomever else before the game. They're still better than them. Okay.
28:56
Uh- Uh, the Panthers [laughs] are the worst team in the NFL again. Uh, it's hard to disagree with that, man. I know.
29:01
It's hard to say that's an overreaction, because again, we, and we went through this a number of times in the off-season. I won't again.
29:07
As bad as you thought Bryce Young's season was last year, it was more historically bad than you can even sort of, uh, gotten with your eyes. Like, when you went through the whole FTN preview- Right... about it.
29:17
It just, it, it was incredible. And he came out, the first pass was a pick, and then it went downhill from there. So I don't think that's an overreaction.
29:25
As bad as Washington's defense was, as bad as the Giants looked, it's not an overreaction. I think the statement is an overreaction, only because we'd n- not as many people were saying that before the season this year.
29:37
Okay. We were talking a lot about the Patriots and the Giants. Oh, okay. In that respect, you're right. Y- right. You know what I mean?
29:41
In that respect, you're right, 'cause the Patriots, we, Patriots we said more than the, we talked more about in that respect than the Panthers.
29:47
That, that's, that's the only, uh, I don't know if that makes sense, but I'm gonna go with the statement alone is kind of an overreaction. [laughs] Yeah. Is the, is the team actually the worst team in the NFL?
29:55
Yeah, quite possibly. I'm looking for a, a major overreaction. Right, okay. That wouldn't be one. Um, all right. The Browns offense will never work with Deshaun Watson under center.
30:02
See, I think that is a overreaction to make it that definitive. Because, and I don't know, if he has one more bad game, we are really in, in- Yeah, like at that point... in bad territory. Okay.
30:11
But I don't think after a game against the Cowboys defense you can say that.
30:15
And I, and I get it, the off the field things tend to, tend to s- then, and I don't know if people acknowledge this or not, but the p- I'm not even talking about that. No, no, no. Let me finish the statement.
30:24
I think that tends to seep into people's minds, 'cause people, justifiably or not, right, they w- they, they enjoy sort of hating on him at this point.
30:34
Um, you play one game against the Cowboys and you stink, I don't think you can jump to the conclusion that the Browns offense will never work with him. Yeah. Like, I think that's an overreaction. Okay.
30:42
But catch me one week from now. [laughs] I was gonna say. I was gonna, catch me seven days from now, and if he has another bad game, I'm gonna be like, "Oh, yeah, it's done." I was gonna say I agree. Yeah.
30:48
But the case against him is stacking up, uh, in that regard. That was another thing Drew said yesterday. He went immediately to, uh, to- Yeah, DTR...
30:55
to DTR, and, and he, he j- Yeah, you and I were talking about that after the show... he jumped over Jameis. I've never been so offended in my life. [laughs] I had to, like, double check.
31:02
I was like, "D- is DTR still on the roster? He must be." Yes, he is. And he is, he is the third stringer, Drew. Yes. Okay? Third stringer on that team. We will see Jameis Winston first. All right, moving on.
31:12
The Cowboys will threaten the Eagles for the NFC East title. That's not an overreaction at all.
31:17
I, I was more down on the Eagles in the off-season than most, and I conceded, I was like, and even being more down on the Eagles, they could still win the division.
31:25
But h- but the, the way you said it, the Cowboys will threaten the Eagles, that's not an overreaction at all. Of course they will. They could win it a- as well. Okay. Yeah.
31:33
The Patriots will go over their four-and-a-half win total. Ooh. That... Man, Aaron Schatz might have been right. Um, is that an overreaction? I think it's a bit of an overreaction. Okay. Yeah. I think it is, too.
31:48
I think it's a bit of an overreaction.
31:49
I think it is, too, although I, I, like I brought this up a couple times during the summer, and yes, I'm the guy with everything under on the Patriots in last winless and all of that stuff.
31:58
Yes, in fewest wins, yes, last winless lost already. But man, it sure feels like Jacoby Brissett's gonna matter in a positive way to them. Like, that is just a- A competent, credible quarterback...
32:08
he's gonna mess around and help them win one or two more games than they should. The year that he replaced Andrew Luck- Yeah... this is like one of these things that got lost in history. Absolutely.
32:18
The year that he replaced Andrew Luck, I think the Colts ended up 4 and s- and 12, I wanna say. They were ahead in almost every game in the fourth quarter, and people are like, "Oh, he sucks." Well, not exactly. Mm.
32:31
Yeah. Yeah, I hear you. Yeah. I hear you, man. Um, all right. Caleb Williams will not be the best rookie quarterback. Oh, that's not an overreaction at all. He will absolutely not be the best- [laughs]...
32:41
rookie quarterback. And again, I keep going back to the Merrill Hodge thing. We gotta replay that Merrill Hodge thing- Yeah... when he was on the show before the draft. He's like, "He's nothing special."
32:50
And you know, Todd Wishnev, our, our, who's on the Megapod- Uh, didn't Merrill also say that about, like every b- quarterback, though? That is incorrect. Okay. [laughs] Oh, wait, of all the rookies? Yeah. Yeah.
32:58
[laughs] Well, yeah, but w- Caleb was the one getting the hype, though. Yeah, no, he was.
33:01
But I don't think this is an overreaction because I think Jayden Daniels seems really comfortable running, and so just on the ground alone, Jayden Daniels is going to be better than Caleb Williams.
33:11
But one of the, you know, Wishnev said this about Caleb Williams, which I thought was great. He's like, "Think about it. At USC, what were his best plays?
33:17
He would just run around, run around, run around, avoid a, a sack, and then his five-star athletes would eventually get open over the opponent's four-stars." Mm-hmm. That's kind of his college career. So anyway.
33:28
Yeah, he took that one bad sack last week, too, trying to do that, right? Yeah. It was the pass rush is coming. Oh, let me just- Doesn't work in the NFL... let me just run around, run back. He lost like 18 yards.
33:35
'Cause you know what? Everybody in the NFL's a five-star. Right, exactly. Okay, all the Chargers needed was Jim Harbaugh, Gil. All right, easy. That's an overreaction. [laughs] They still have nobody on offense.
33:45
Let's, let's, let's not get crazy. You getting closer to them on Survivor this week? Uh, not quite. I can't do it. I can't do it. But, but just to follow up that- Can't do it... I will not be using the Chargers.
33:54
That Charger, that is- That's the only thing I've settled on... that Survivor clip got a lot of traction. In the case- I thought it was a good conversation... and we came to no conclusions. We came to no conclusions.
34:01
Yeah. Except I, I've, I've come to that conclusion. Okay, last one for you. The Jets are the same old Jets. [laughs] It's an overreaction. They played the Niners. You're allowed to lose to the Niners.
34:11
Now, that was their... Did they look terrible? Yes, but it's one game. Um, I still think the Jets are wildly talented, and I'll use the line I've used off-season.
34:18
If they get any modicum of performance from Aaron Rodgers, they're a playoff team and maybe can win the division. Man, they did not look good, though. [laughs] That's all I gotta say. They didn't look good.
34:28
But you know, Trent Williams is in there banging on you. Yeah. Uh, and the rook as well. I like that little segment. Yeah. It's good. We'll run, we'll run back in some form on Friday. It's good. Uh, we will come back.
34:38
Si Najjad joins us, talk a little golf and NFL. That's next right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:53
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35:35
Gil Alexander, Kelly Billings alongside here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You know what I didn't make enough of, by the way? What?
35:42
Mark Borchardt's heartfelt, "I will not bet against the Mets and the Yankees on 9/11," comment. Yeah, that was pretty, uh, yeah, I thought it was pretty, uh, it was pretty cool. Uh, Steve the Proxy tweets in.
35:51
He said, "As a native New Yorker that bleeds orange and blue, we don't get a lot of all-time moments. The Piazza walk-off in the first game back from 9/11 is one of the greatest Mets moments of this century.
36:01
It's easy to get emotional seeing it. Piazza's a Hall of Famer, and that's his best moment." Um, Derby Day Day, "Despite the start of football, baseball's still going strong.
36:10
Shout out to Spohrer going 6 and 0 on a numbers game yesterday." Did he go 6 and 0 yesterday? Yeah, I g- I, I guess so. [laughs] Did, did I miss that? Well, good on Spohrer. Okay. Yeah. Uh, Brandon Kyles.
36:21
Hey, thank you, Brandon Kyles. Our, uh, pre-flop Padres season win total, my favorite season win total of the entire year, uh, before the season started in Major League Baseball, was the Padres over.
36:31
I gave an impassioned speech at the time as to why, and the Padres win total cashes. Uh, now we got nine more wins to go for our second favorite on the Cubs over, uh, he points out as well. Thank you for that.
36:41
I re- I really wish I could back up this Paul Spohrer, uh, thing. I, I don't, I don't believe that for a second. I don't, [laughs] I do not believe he did that. Was that on VSiN plus plus plus where he went 6 and 0?
36:48
Pretty seriously, yeah. [laughs] Uh, Three Jack H3131, uh, "Was on a Zoom call for work and I heard you say tennis bets and I immediately muted the call. Thanks for getting us all through our work weeks."
36:57
Thank you, Three Jack. Uh, Kevin Ryan, "Gil, with the change in venue for a numbers game and the brilliant idea for you and Kelly to switch seats, the show can only now be described as exhilarating and electric."
37:07
[laughs] Oh, wow. Okay. All right. Well, thank you. Thank you very much. Well, take it. It's a week and a half in. I know Kelly's exhilarating and electric. [laughs] My God. I had high expectations, but that's, uh...
37:17
Wow. Also exhilarating, electric, Nia- uh, Sia Nejad, everybody, uh, from the Monumental Sports Network in the DMV. That's what the cool kids call DC, Maryland, and Virginia.
37:28
Uh, he's the host and analyst for the Monumental Sports Network. You can follow him on Twitter @sianejad. That's S-I-A N-E-J-A-D, joins us on the Progressive guest line and h- uh, now to talk golf and football.
37:38
How you doing, Sia? I'm exhilarated and excited. [laughs] I can't wait to talk, uh, football. We got golf. I'm filling out DFS lineups for both sports. There's a lot going on.
37:48
Baseball, as you guys just previously mentioned. It's a nice sports time. It is. It's the best. October to me is the best of them all. Um, but there's so many great sports times, but October still wins for me.
37:58
ProCore Championship, what did this used to be called? And this is the traditional post-golf season, if you will, uh, tournament, correct? Yeah. Y- a lot of people refer to this as the fall swing.
38:11
This is the beginning of it. It's the ProCore, but people may be familiar with the Fortinet Championship, which w- this was previously called. And then I think before that, maybe the Safeway Open.
38:19
Um, you know, listen, these are, these are lesser tournaments where you're not gonna see a lot of the huge names like Scottie Scheffler or Xander Schauffele, but there are some big-time players, some President's Cup players, including Sahith Theegala, Max Homa, Wyndham Clark.
38:32
Uh, so there's some names here, but, but what I love about these tournaments, Gil and Kelly, is that it lends itself to somebody further down the board winning or somebody further down the board cashing in a, in a top 20 or top 40 market, or potentially, a first-round leader cashing at long odds.
38:46
You mentioned Theegala. You're all over him in this tournament. Yeah. I mean, listen, he, he's been really good here before. He's probably the most talented guy.
38:54
I mean, I would probably put him and Wyndham Clark as the most talented guys in this field. He's a California kid, which is gonna help on a California course. Uh, and so he kinda checks all the boxes.
39:02
I hate taking a short shot.
39:04
He's one of, you know, five outrights that I like in this tournament, but he is the short shot that I like just because I think the talent gap is there, and especially when you consider the course history.
39:12
So Sahith Theegala's an outright I like. I like Luke Clanton, the amateur that is- Clanton? Uh, real, real... Yeah, Clanton. [laughs] He, he's been very impressive.
39:19
I like him at plus 2500, even though he's got a lack of, uh, experience here. Eric Cole is a guy that's a big-time birdie maker.
39:25
He can kinda crash and burn for you, but at 40-1, I'm willing to find out, because later in the season, Eric Cole started to get really hot.
39:32
And then a couple kinda random names, Mac Meisner at 50-1 and Patrick Fishburn 75-1. Those are some outrights for you. Patrick Fishburn. What did you scream? Clanton? Was that what you screamed?
39:40
Clanton, Florida St- A, it's the only thing Florida State's got to root for right now. Oh, okay. So, yeah. Not on that list, J.J. Spaun. I heard a lot of people loving J.J. Spaun here. Yeah, I like J.J. Spaun.
39:48
I think he's a good play. I think he's a safe play. I mean, I think I'd probably prefer to play him in the top 20 market. I don't think he's gonna close in a tournament with guys like Luke Clanton who are more talented.
39:58
Potentially Eric Cole I think is probably a better birdie maker, although Spaun actually rivals him there. But then you include Sahith Theegala, Wyndham Clark.
40:05
Um, I think Spaun is one of those guys that can finish seventh, and, and you're not surprised by it, but finishing first, uh, uh, it's not for me. Okay.
40:13
And it wouldn't be a, a, a Sia Nejad segment without first-round leaders bets. What do you got? Yeah, these are all morning tee times.
40:20
Uh, so a lot of this will mirror some of the outrights, but some of the outrights that I liked didn't have morning tee times, so you'll get a couple different names.
40:25
Sahith Theegala 30-1, Eric Cole at 60-1, Patrick Fishburn at 75-1, who by the way is the great nephew of Laurence Fishburne, Neil Shipley at plus 70, uh, plus 7500, 75-1, Chad Ramey 110-1.
40:37
I completely just lied about the Patrick Fishburne thing. I was just gonna say. [laughs] I'm like, "What?" [laughs] I was already, I was gonna hold it for like five seconds.
40:44
I was already like, "What's your favorite Laurence Fishburne movie now it doesn't matter?" I was gonna Google that immediately. Yeah. I was like, "How did I not know this? What a great drop by Sia." Uh, okay.
40:52
And anything else? Top 40 bet you said you had as well? Yeah, I like Mac Meisner quite a bit.
40:57
Again, the only reason he's not in the first-round leader market is 'cause he's an afternoon tee time, but I think Mac Meisner's one of those games you're gonna start hearing not just in the fall swing, but when we start up at the Century or early next year in January.
41:07
I think Mac Meisner's a really good play, in really good form, love the ball striking, can pop with the putter. Si- Sia just making stuff up about re- relationships or, or relatives. [laughs] Right. That kind of thing.
41:16
Uh- If I was his cameraman when he dropped that- Mac Meisner's not even a real player... oh man. [laughs] He's a g- He, he went to the great nephew, by the way, didn't he? Yeah, right. [laughs] Yeah.
41:23
Um, okay, let's talk NFL. Your, your, your thoughts on week one. Like, what was your biggest takeaway from week one? You know, it's interesting.
41:31
A little recency bias here 'cause it was the last game we saw, but The Jets look like a mess. Uh, and I'm a big Jets guy. I'd like them to win the AFC East. For the record, I still like them w- to win the AFC East.
41:41
They clearly missed Hassan Redick, but I think the Niners kinda reminded everybody that not only are they the most talented team, but that Kyle Shanahan's probably the best coach.
41:49
Again, I, I've said this before, Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay are the top two coaches in the league. I mean, Robert Saleh looked just so unbelievably confused.
41:56
They didn't know what to do on defense, and I think if this team stays relatively healthy at key positions, and now key positions include running back with CMC, but Jordan Mason certainly spelling him for at least a little bit, uh, this Niners team is reminding everybody that perhaps not the Detroit Lions, not the Green Bay Packers, not the Philadelphia Eagles should be the frontrunners here.
42:15
And I understand the Niners were already the frontrunners, but the trendy thing to do was to say, "Hey, this is not the 49ers' year. It's somebody else's." And in the NFC, I just don't think that's the case.
42:24
What did you land on for week two? So, so far I like the Colts. I mean, I'm just gonna fade Malik Willis. Uh, I don't really understand why this line is three. I mean, I, I'm, I'm taking the bait here.
42:34
It was three and a half, now it's toggled down to three. Maybe it kicks back up, but it looks like a lot of people have faith that Green Bay at home is gonna be that team. Like, I was on the Colts last week.
42:43
I, I actually had them money line, but I also had them plus three. They ended up covering the spread, and don't forget, this team was one unbelievable third down and 11 conversion b- between C.J.
42:53
Stroud and Nico Collins from getting the ball back and kicking a game-winning field goal.
42:57
Uh, Anthony Richardson missed a lot of throws, but what I like about this game in particular is that you got Malik Willis at the quarterback position, but this defensive line is so underrated.
43:05
And by the way, they got after C.J. Stroud. He had a good game 'cause he's a great quarterback, but Malik Willis is not.
43:10
And if this defensive line gets after Malik Willis, I don't think they're, he's gonna be able to run a Matt LaFleur offense smoothly at all.
43:16
I think Anthony Richardson is, is good enough with his legs and his arm to cover this spread. So I really like the Colts. Other ones I'm considering, uh, the Niners going into Minnesota and covering a six-point spread.
43:26
I kinda like that. I'm considering, get this- I'm considering taking Carolina, especially if this kicks up to seven- Yeah. Yeah... at home against the Chargers. [laughs] I haven't done it yet. I'm considering it.
43:37
'Cause let's be honest, and w- we said this, I mean, I said this on Guessing Lines when Kelly told me what the number was. I was like, "You gotta be kidding me, right?"
43:44
Like, the Chargers should not be this big of a favorite over anybody on the road, but yet, do you have the onions to take the Panthers plus the points, which is probably the right thing to do, right?
43:56
The right for the, uh- Yeah... you know, if you're- Mm-hmm... doing this by the book. I'm standing by my seven and a half number, though. Y- give me the seven and a half- Yeah... and I'll be in. Right. I'll be in.
44:04
But th- right, but if it gets to seven and a half, are you gonna be like, "Ah, I'm in 10 and a half"? No, no, no. [laughs] At seven and a half, I will stand by it with my hard-earned money. Oh, okay.
44:11
But not, not until then. Sorry, Sia. I li- I like Sia th- Good luck. [laughs] I think it's a good sign. I like, I like that you say you're considering it, but you haven't gotten there quite yet, is what you're saying.
44:19
Well, I mean, here's the thing. Kelly's right. The, the money right now looks to be on the, on the Carolina plus six-and-a-half, but we know how this goes.
44:25
As the days go by, people are like, "I just can't stay away from this." They're gonna take it at six and a half. It kicks up to seven.
44:31
Maybe you can take an alt line at seven and a half by the time of kickoff at, like, minus 120. So I mean, I think it's, it's safe to wait on that one, and if it, if it is seven and a half, I will go ahead and bet it.
44:39
All right, Sia. Always a pleasure, man. Thank you so much. Thanks, fellas. Talk to you soon. Sia, Sia Najad on the Progressive Guest Line, @sianajad. Again, Monumental Sports Network in the DMV.
44:50
Uh, I did, uh, this is malpractice at the beginning of the show. I did not, uh, I did not say who was going to be on at the beginning of the next hour. Yeah. Yeah, you were grilling me about debates. That's, I was.
44:59
I, I was so, I was, had debate fever is what I had. [laughs] Uh, Cleve TA is about to join us, uh, for not one, but two segments. One of the best, uh, Twitter follows on the NFL that there is.
45:10
Um, gonna ask him about stuff I've said this week that he finds, uh, ridiculous. Maybe he has found something ridiculous. Uh, as bout, uh, about as good of an NFL mind as there is, uh, cleveanalytics.com.
45:21
Cleve TA on Twitter. He will join us. Jason Weingarten as well. Oh, we got the Larceny Bourbon Smooth Bet of the Week a little later on. Cleve TA on the other side. Numbers Game. Peace and the Sports Betting Network.
45:32
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A Numbers Game
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