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Sep 11, 2025
A Numbers Game | September 11, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 11, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. We appreciate you taking us in any one of those ways, maybe all of those ways.
0:22
Kelly's still waiting for somebody to try that. Yep. That hasn't happened yet. Oh, maybe they've tried, but they haven't recorded themself trying. That's what I need to see. And you- I need to see evidence...
0:29
that's right, and on top of it, you have to put a camera on yourself doing it. I'm not being... Exactly. I'm not gonna believe you. I don't wanna just believe you. That's Kelly Billet, everybody. It's Gil Alexander.
0:36
Uh, it is a Numbers Game. Uh, Crack still to come up. Bill Krackomberger. I should probably point that out to people instead of just saying Crack coming up.
0:44
[laughs] Bill Krackomberger coming up, uh- It's g- good to, good to refresh every once in a while, yeah... next, that's right, next hour. Uh, Kelly and I are gonna talk, uh, we're gonna do Are We Sure?
0:53
Zach Cohen's gonna join us, part of the Zach and Crack comedy duo. But first, well, let's hold off on Survivor one second and let me read these tweets. "Cancer-free from Stage IV NHL since May."
1:03
Uh, congratulations, by the way. He says, "I worked at, uh, ESPN in Bristol in 1991.
1:08
Every time Tom Jackson saw Joe Theismann, he'd mercilessly tease him by saying something like, 'Is that Jack Squirek standing behind you?' With a chest- [laughs] with a Cheshire cat grin and hearty laugh.
1:18
Joe was not laughing." I bet he wasn't. Judd O'Connor, "Sam Darnold could see dead people, ghosts. That's a hell of a thing to come back from in his career." Yeah. Bruce, Bruce Dobing, " '70s demographic here.
1:28
Get off my lawn." That's for you, Kelly. Primetime, "Cowboys_Cubs1, yo." Hey, man.
1:33
"I says in broad daylight, I says maybe these kids need another little pandemic so they can only watch replays of '70s NBA and MLB games, or maybe NFL games with no ticker or score bug. That'll learn 'em."
1:44
By the way, you know the score bug that we take for granted? That is incredible. That's incredible. Do you know that until, Todd went through this the other day, until like 1990-something it didn't exist.
1:57
Thought it was '80s, but yeah. It just... No, and I think it, I think it was, well, I think it was early '90s. Maybe it was the late '80s. Whatever, it's still ridiculously delayed, yeah.
2:02
Whatever it was, that it- Yeah... it took that long for somebody to be like, "Hey, I've got an idea." Especially with the, because they used to, they used to just do the flash, right?
2:09
They'd flash it, like every once in a while, and then take it down. Primetime also says, "You have the best line of the day." She says, "Y'all have soft trees in DC, that's what I'm hearing."
2:16
That was, that was my biggest takeaway. He said- Soft trees... he said, "Perfect delivery. I think he's feeling better." Yes. I am feeling better. He is feeling better.
2:21
Uh, James Fessler, "Another way to attack the Assistant Coach of the Year, uh, market is to find a team that can sneak into the playoffs because of a substantial upgrade to one side of the ball opposite the head coach's forte.
2:31
Example, Jets OC Tanner Engstrad, 50 to 1," that's Engstrand, "50 to 1, or Raiders offensive, uh, coordinator Chip Kelly at 18 to 1." I like the thought. Rick Ollier, "Hey, guys, just catching up on the show.
2:45
I was born in '86. Can you please catch me up on every game I missed between '55 and '85? Thanks in advance." [laughs] I agree, yes. Uh, same here. Well- Born in '86. Just catch me up on everything, Gil.
2:53
Since you ask, uh, there was this game in, uh, in 1982 where Mark Moseley put the ball in between the snowflakes to clinch a Redskins playoff berth. I'll tell you about that another time.
3:05
Uh- I heard there was a big hockey game one time in Upstate New York. Ah, it was a big one, 1980. Yeah? Yeah. Something happen there? You may know it as the Miracle on Ice. Yeah. That was a big one you missed.
3:15
Full, full play-by-play coming up for that one? No, not really. [laughs] We'll get Todd in here to do it, though. Uh, all right, Survivor- Kurt Russell did a great job. All right, Survi- [laughs] he did.
3:23
[laughs] As, uh, Herb Smith. Wasn't that the name of the coach? Ooh, I think you're right. Yeah. I think you got it. Uh, okay. You wanna do a, your spin on Survivor here? You wanna do it your way, or?
3:31
I thought you said you had a couple things you wanted to bring down. Break it down.
3:33
Oh, no, no, I mean, we, 'cause I did it earlier in the week when you weren't here, but I know you wanted to, I thought you said earlier you wanted to do a spin on it, but- Just wanna pick your thoughts. Yeah.
3:40
Yeah, I've got a couple. I've got a couple. So here's, uh, here's, basically what I did, you've got six up here. What I did is I came up with the, I said the eight biggest spreads at the time. Mm-hmm. Okay.
3:49
Which included San Francisco, right? Right. And I said, "Here are the four teams I'm not considering playing. Here are the four teams I am considering playing." The four that I wasn't was San Francisco, right?
3:57
Because there was the, you know, we didn't know what was gonna happen with- I'm a survivor. Thank you again. Beyonce, Kelly, and Michelle, very rude, just interrupting at all times. Kelly, I'll see you after the show.
4:07
They can interrupt whenever. Um, San Francisco, so that was out- Yeah...
4:10
because we didn't know what was going on with, with Purdy, and by the way, for those who missed it, Brock Purdy out two to five weeks with a form of turf toe, courtesy of Ian Rapoport earlier on the show. Um,
4:22
and there's other places to use the Niners, right? Week 12, home Carolina, week 13 at Cleveland, week 15, home Tennessee, week 17, home Chicago. So S- Niners were out.
4:32
The Vikings, I correctly guessed, uh, i- isn't it interesting how my guess on this game went away from me first and now came back to me and through me. Uh, Guessing Lines Monday, the Vikings-Atlanta game.
4:45
I can't believe this, that's where that opened. Wow.
4:46
I couldn't believe where this line was, and I'm like, "There's no chance I'm playing the Vikings as one of the biggest spreads, 'cause I don't think this spread should be anywhere close to what it is."
4:54
What is it, three-and-a-half now? Yeah. I g- yeah, I, I believe the Vikings should be a tick of a favorite after the Monday night game, but that's it. Ri- right. I think three-and-a-half's pretty, pretty right. Mm. Mm.
5:05
Should be three maybe, tops. Rams at Tennessee, I don't like that 'cause I think Tennessee's feistier than most people give them credit for, and you could use the Rams home New Orleans week nine, at Carolina week 13.
5:17
Um, by the way, with the Vikings, home Chicago week 11 might be the, the only real spot to play them. And- I'm with you on all these...
5:25
and then the Bills, to me, is the one you absolutely don't play, because they're six-and-a-half point favorites at the J- at the Jets.
5:31
I believe the, the, the Megapod question, one of the two final Megapod questions is, which of the, which of the big favorites do you believe is the most likely to lose outright?
5:39
Three of the four of us picked the Bills on this. I was one of them. Uh, and you can use the Bills any number of times coming, for like week three, home Miami. Week four, home New Orleans. Week eight at Carolina.
5:50
Week 16 at Cleveland. So there's plenty of other times to use them. Here are the four from which I will split my six Survivor entries,
5:58
and three of these four, Kelly, have Thanksgiving implications, and one has a Thanksgiving and a Christmas implication.
6:06
So the one that isn't Thanksgiving or Christmas, Arizona Cardinals And you pointed this out before last week. Arizona, home against Carolina, they're six-and-a-half point favorites this week.
6:16
The only other time that could be comparable, could be, and I don't even think is, week five, home Tennessee. So I do think- Mm-hmm... Arizona's absolutely one of the teams you have to choose from.
6:25
I think they're a good team to use in these first two weeks. Yep. Yep. All my Denver, Denver entries from last week will be on Arizona this week. Okay. I know that much. How many Denver entries did you have?
6:34
I w- I ha- I only went one, and I went two on Arizona. So you did two Arizona, one Denver. And, and my plan for Arizona was to go Niners this week. Well- So that's a little jammed up...
6:43
s- so that's interesting, too, because my six, I had a 4-1-1. I used Arizona on one of them last week. Uh, but I will use Arizona on maybe the other one, if you will.
6:54
Uh, and then the other three teams are the Ravens, the Cowboys, and the Lions. Now, the Ravens play Thanksgiving. If you're playing in Circa Survivor, that's obviously something you have to keep in mind.
7:03
But the Eagles host the Bears on Black Friday, the Friday right after Thanksgiving. We still calling it that, by the way? Um, the biggest shopping day of the year, the day after Thanksgiving.
7:13
That's part of the Thanksgiving quirk at Circa. So to me, I'm saving Philly for that and just praying for no significant injuries to the Eagles.
7:22
So I'm not dissuaded by Baltimore having to play, having to host Cincinnati on Thanksgiving. When you have them hosting Cleveland, here as a 12-point favorite.
7:32
By the way, other chances to use them, week eight versus Chicago, week nine at Miami. There are other options that week as well.
7:38
So the Ravens for me is an actual consideration, even though I know they'll be the most picked team here percentage-wise. Dallas plays both Thanksgiving and Christmas. They host Kansas City on Thanksgiving.
7:49
They're at Washington on Christmas. I'm not trying to use them in either of those two. And, you know, are there other spots to use them? By the way, they're six-point favorites here against the Giants this week.
8:00
They're at Chicago next week. They're at Carolina week six. They're home against Minnesota. Depending on how you feel about Minnesota, maybe I'm doing them a, uh, a disservice there by including them in that list.
8:11
So to me, Dallas is a real consideration. And finally, the Lions, right? Another one on guessing lines. I couldn't believe it was only four and a half when we were doing guessing lines.
8:18
Sure enough, it's higher than that. I got them at five earlier in the week. It's five and a half now favoring the Lions against the Bears. I'm still a little incredulous it's that low. Week four, they host the Browns.
8:29
Week 12, they host the Giants. Those are the other two spots you probably wanna use the Lions. Yeah. So for me, my six will be divvied up between these four, absolutely, and not the other four, absolutely.
8:41
I think I'm there with you. Yeah, this was just a note of s- some of the big favorites to consider this week. We kinda went through all these teams already. Um, I'm with you.
8:51
I, I don't think the C- I think the Cowboys I'm gonna stay away from, just, just from both still questions and, and opportunities to use them down the road if I have to, right? Thanksgiving. Uh,
9:02
the Lions and Ravens I'm getting closer, closer on. With those, with those entries that I had planned to use on the 49ers this week, I think I'm pivoting to those two teams.
9:12
A record low, again- It feels gross using the Ravens this early, though.
9:18
It does, but look, a, a record low 3.06% of the 18,718 entries in, uh, Circa Survivor, a record low in the six-year history of Survivor, a record low 3.06% knocked out in week one.
9:34
I think it's gonna be low again in week two. I do. Yeah. It's gonna be the opposite of last year, where the carnage happens later. Well, and especially if we see heavy numbers Baltimore-Buffalo, right?
9:44
Well, Baltimore is gonna be number one. They're the, they're the- I would expect a lot of Buffalo, too, but yeah, I, I think Baltimore's number one. Despite Thanksgiving, Baltimore's gonna be number one. Yeah. Yeah.
9:53
And I th- and I think we see a lot of Arizona. I do think because th- their future value d- really kind of only exists week five versus Tennessee, this is probably a better option.
10:03
So I think we will see a lot of Arizona, but I think we'll see a lot of Dallas and Detroit, too. Plus, plus the Super Jerk brought up last week, like, you, you use Kyler Murray while he's still healthy [laughs].
10:11
Like, this is... Right? You don't know where he's gonna be at halfway through the season.
10:15
You, you don't know where he's gonna be at halfway, and the, and the comfort of having Arizona in your rear view mirror, period- Yes, right... is a lot of comfort, 'cause do you ever trust them for real? No, not really.
10:25
And, and, and you and I are, I think, two of the guys that speak more highly of this team- Yes... than, uh, co- compared to a lot of people. Well, and just think about it, this game against the Saints.
10:33
That, was it a third down play, I believe it was, the third down play at the end of the game? Rattler hits Ja'Juan Johnson in the end zone, which would be two-point conversion pending for overtime. Mm-hmm.
10:44
But Budda Baker just knocks it out at the last second. And so Arizona staves off the Saints this past week. All right, you want, you want a taste of the Tim Lawson segment we're gonna do? Oh, yes, yes.
10:55
This will get more fun. This is, this is what I was getting at, yeah. This will get more fun down the line. I think this is a little too early in the year to do it.
11:01
Basically, is it, is it too cute, these small favorites, to play in Survivor, or is it good gamble? I- So the ones we have listed this week, all the non-big favorites, right?
11:10
And I'll stick by the five and a half as big favorites.
11:12
Bengals versus the Jags, uh, Dolphins hosting the Patriots, Steelers hosting the Seahawks, uh, Niners at the Saints, now down to three, Vikings hosting the Falcons, Texans hosting the Buccaneers.
11:23
I think it's all too cute. Yeah, me too. I mean, I th- If you had to play one game. I'm not even gonna say it out loud- It'd be the Steelers... 'cause I d- I wouldn't play any of them. It would be the Steelers.
11:31
It would be the Steelers. 'Cause I have a bet on the Steelers at minus two and a half. Yeah, and just, and, like, get the Steelers out of the way, right? But- Like, we're kinda like we're talking with the Cardinals.
11:37
But it's all way- Too cute... it's all way too adorable. Too adorable. [laughs] It's all way too adorable. Thanks, Timmy. I love the segment idea. It's gonna be a great hour.
11:44
Yeah, Tim Lawson, Megapod historian, doing such a great job also. Uh, we'll come back. Zach Cohen, his picks next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
We invite you to check out Sharp Plays' unmatched transparency, with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros. sharpplays.com. Check them out
12:15
We get tweets that beat the book. Always appreciate the feedback from everybody. David Chalifour, "Yo, Kelly, you feeling better? Yeah, let's talk comeback player of the year. Purple." Good tip.
12:23
[laughs] Hey, he said he was feeling better. Might as well get him angry. Yeah. I'm, I'ma be so mad about that all year. Kelly's getting very angry. Just don't know who... Like, who's betting that? Who's betting that?
12:32
Edward Perez @Boomerizzle, "Off topic, but I've secured my tickets to Indian Wells in March. First time for me. Got some stadium two-day passes, stadium one for some primetime night matches. I'm stoked."
12:42
Boomerizzle, you're doing it, you're doing it right, man. That's the way to do it. Daytime, uh, passes for, uh, the grounds, if you will, and then nighttime in the big stadium. Nothing like Indian Wells.
12:53
Coach Harry Ellis, "The Score Bug was started in 1994 by Fox when they got the NFL, when they wrested away, when they wrested the NFC away from CBS." Yeah, that's wild.
13:02
Joe Pita te- texting us some of this off to the side, too. 1994. Just crazy.
13:07
I, I remember it too because, like, before then you had to, you had to make sure you were present when they flashed up the scores every 10 minutes or whatever it was.
13:14
It's just so dumb 'cause it's like, it's like Hawkeye, right? It's like the technology existed. It's not like they, it's not like they were waiting for that part to come along. They just chose not to.
13:23
Y- y- even, like, and also if you attended games, right? Like, I remember, like, going to Skins games. Like, after the third quarter at RFK, the PA announcer would come on and go, "Scores from around the league." Yeah.
13:35
And we'd all be like, "Oh my God, are Cowboys losing?" [laughs] That's all we would care about. Fred Currier, "Herb Brooks was the coach," yes- Yeah, we were close... "of the USA hockey team." I'm so sorry.
13:43
What did we say? Smith? I said Smith. I'm so dumb. Ed M., "Catching Kelly up on three decades or so of history. When do we tell him about the moon landing?" Yeah, really.
13:52
I've heard it was fake, so f- I've heard it never happened. Bill Connolly. Oh, this is interesting from Bill Connolly. Not, not, uh, ESPN's Bill Connolly, but a Bill PQ.
13:59
He says, "Just listened to the Megapod and wanted to chime in that last season in Circa Week two Millions," he's talking, "the entire group went 37.2% on the week.
14:08
Not sure if that's the record low, but it was worse than this past week." Thank you, Bill, for that clarification, 'cause it was 40% week one of Circa Millions.
14:17
Yeah, week one it was the worst, but you, that's a good call, Bill, that week two last year was actually worse than this. Uh, Martin Bernstein @, @MetsDoodoo. Mm.
14:26
That's his Twitter handle, and they are, they're looking like that these last few weeks.
14:30
Uh, "When, uh, 9/11/2001 happened, there was a ticker on the bottom of the screen to give information on what was going on in this country, FAA airport closing, Amtrak closing, and other information during the horrible chaos on that day, and I think the ticker grew from there."
14:44
I didn't know that about tickers. Like, he's, he's talking about the crawl- Mm-hmm, yeah... on the bottom of the screen. Uh, by the way, uh, 24 years ago, 24 years ago now. No, well, excuse me. Pardon me. Yeah, 24.
14:57
So next year's 25. It's wild, man. A, a quarter-century since that horrible day, um, which we all remember so vividly. Uh, never forget, as they say. Manny Davison, "Come on, Gil. Herb Smith?
15:12
Get this old-timer his meds." Oh, now I'm an old timer 'cause I couldn't... Herb Brooks, yes, we know. Ace that Cardano, "Has a Cy Young winner ever been snubbed from the All-Star Game? #ringthebell."
15:22
He's talking about the, the Phillies. Uh, yeah. I, I don't know if a, I don't know if a Cy Young winner. I'd have to look that up. I'm sure it's happened. I'm sure it's happened. I'm sure it has, yeah.
15:32
Yeah, I don't think that that's that rare, actually, through history. Um, are you trying to suggest that Paul Skenes isn't gonna win the, uh, the Cy Young Award? Is that what you're trying to suggest?
15:40
'Cause he's winning it. Um, okay, you ready? Are- No, that's, that's what he's trying to say. So you gotta rever- Yes... you gotta reverse that. Has anybody- Yeah... been snubbed from the All-Star Game- Yeah...
15:49
that's gone on to win the Cy Young? Yeah. Are we sure? Let's do it. [upbeat music] You think you know what's going on in the sports betting world? Are you sure? I'm positive.
16:01
Gil and Kelly tackle the hard-hitting questions on another exciting edition of Are We Sure? Yes, indeed. Estamos seguros? Yo, Gil. Yeah? Are we sure Cal Raleigh can catch Aaron Judge win MVP?
16:17
Am I gonna have to say this again? Yeah. Oh. I'm, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait, wait. I think you keep saying it, yeah. [laughs] If Cal Raleigh gets to 60 home runs, right?
16:25
If Cal Raleigh gets to 60 home runs, and Aaron Judge ends up with 49, they're gonna give it to him. But if it's 59 to 51, let's say, just that stupidity alone, Aaron Judge is gonna get it.
16:38
That's my, that's always been my, my thinking on this. Right. Right? Is there a point, any point you can imagine getting in on this market? No. I mean, of, of all the things I wanna bet on, this isn't it.
16:48
If Raleigh gets to 60 in- It's 53 to 44 right now, by the way... if Raleigh gets to 60 in two weeks and it's even money, you in on Raleigh? Yes. Yeah. Yes.
17:01
Hey, Gil, are we sure the Clippers will get in some sort of trouble [laughs] over this Kawhi Leonard situation? Oh, yes we are. We are sure of this. By the way, Pablo Torre, standing ovation- Oh, man...
17:11
for the journalism, for Pablo Torre, or the podcast Pablo Torre Finds Out, uh, who has been on this show. We love Pablo here. Um- More Out This Morning... More Out This Morning, where he, uh, he, uh, documented now
17:25
money, uh, that, that, uh, a payment to Kawhi was late. Yeah. And then was quickly, uh- Kawhi's company... Kawhi's company. Kawhi's company. KL, KL2. That's right, yes.
17:35
Pardon me, KL2, was quickly the, the, the Clippers', uh, trough of money was quickly r- um, replenished by a minority owner, uh, who owns 1% of the Clippers. Which this is all, like, even this stuff I didn't know, right?
17:47
Yeah, Ballmer owns 99. Ballmer owns 99, and then his college roommate owns 1%. That's right. And guess what? Very conveniently, that guy made a $2 million payment to this company that, uh, then rerouted it to Kawhi.
17:58
And that company is called what again? Now let me look it up. That company, now, and the Clippers' stance now has changed to that company has, is de- has defrauded many people, including us perhaps.
18:11
So the Clippers are taking a new tack. Aspiration. Aspiration is this supposed, uh, company. Well, that was, that was kind of Ballmer's reaction when he went to ESPN. Yeah. That, that's the other part of this.
18:21
It's like the, it's the old school thinking of let me go, let me go talk to the media networks that matter, and not to the actual guy, the reporter who's reporting the story. Right. Right? Yeah.
18:31
And it's He's trying to sell it as, "Well, it was just a bad investment. Like, we, we, we got s- we got stooped, uh, or we got duped by a bad company. I, it was a bad investment."
18:42
And the problem is is, like, everybody respects Ballmer as a businessman. [laughs] Nobody thinks he would make an investment in that kind of company. I think they're, I think they're gonna get in trouble.
18:48
I think they are too. A- and this is after this morning. And by that I mean, by that I mean draft picks docked. Yeah. That's my hunch. I th- I think it could end up being worse than that.
19:00
I think it could end up being worse. Oh, I think it will be worse, but I think that'll be the headline. I mean, this, after this morning too, it's like, I don't, I don't know what all...
19:06
Like, I don't know that Pablo Torre's done. Like, he's- Nope... clearly holding some stuff back here- I-... to see how the Clippers are gonna react to this.
19:14
And at this point, like, Ballmer, you gotta start thinking about get- just coming out and getting ahead of this. Also, like ESPN referring to Pablo as a pod- eh, the podcaster Pablo Torre- Yeah...
19:23
is such a, like a casting shade kinda thing. It's like throwing shade on a guy who was always a great journalist- Mm-hmm... at your network, and you gave shows to. Remember when Bomani- But I think he's still doing it...
19:33
Bomani and Pablo did High Noon? Yeah, yeah. That was like a big deal for them. I liked that show. And like, podcaster Pablo Torre. I liked that show.
19:39
I think he's still filling in on PTI, 'cause I think those guys, those guys love him so much, I think he's their go-to when one of them's out. Yeah. Like, I've seen him on there in the past year or two.
19:47
Uh, Wilbon and Kornheiser signed a new three-year deal. Did you see that? I did see that. [laughs] Yeah, I did see that. [laughs] Oh, man. All right.
19:53
Are we sure, Gil, we are watching two Super Bowl contenders tonight in Green Bay? Uh, yes, I am sure. I am sure. These are two playoff teams, and you don't wanna play either in the playoffs, so yes. I agree.
20:06
I agree with that. Are, are we... [laughs] Thanks, Wyatt. Yeah, is this the Tomcheck-Alexander Bowl tonight? Wyatt Tom- You guys got anything on this? Come on. Oh, yeah. No, good, good question.
20:14
Uh, are we sure the Giants should be starting Russell Wilson this week? I'm not sure about that.
20:20
I r- we were talking about this earlier in the week, where it's like, you have a GM in Joe Schoen and a, and a coach in Brian Daboll trying to preserve their own jobs, and their, their North Star is, "We gotta win as many games to, to secure our jobs for as long as we can."
20:33
When in fact, if you're looking for the long-term benefit of the franchise, you probably wanna see the kid as early as possible. Mm-hmm.
20:39
And whether he's as good as Russell Wilson or not, we have n- a- as Russell Wilson this year in 2025, not the Russell Wilson prime version, that's a different story. But we don't know.
20:49
We don't know if he will be or not, but you gotta find out, and why not find out sooner than later? Yeah, I'm, I'm not sure either. It should- 'Cause are you going to the playoffs with Russell Wilson?
20:56
Uh, 'cause anybody who says yes to that, you know, I, I, small percentage of people probably. So but, like, that's, that's the messed up part of this. Yeah. Right? Like, as you're...
21:04
The coaching staffs and GMs, they have to think about, they have to think about ticket sales and stuff like that. Right.
21:10
And part of that is, like, still giving the fan base hope, and we can s- maybe sell them on Russell Wilson, but then when he plays bad and it turns that quickly, what do you do?
21:19
So- It also, it, it also hearkens back to this thing that Todd always tal- Todd Wishnev always talks about, which is, you know, when you see certain quarterbacks in college and you're like, "Was he ever good in college?"
21:27
Like, why, why do NFL p- Mm. Uh, Jaxson Dart was always g- I always loved- Mm... Jaxson Dart in college. Yeah. No, me too. Me too. Uh, uh, it's gonna be interesting to watch.
21:35
Um, all right, it's overreaction week, right, Gil? Bill's minus 700 to win the AFC East? Are we sure they should be that high after one week?
21:46
It's funny, 'cause to me, I feel like the Jets might be their biggest competition in that division. Yes, I think... Well, should it be minus 700? Maybe not, but the point remains that it's true.
21:56
Should they be a prohibitive favorite? Absolutely. Yeah. Absolutely. Price feels about right to me. Eh. Feels about right. I mean, it's- It is kinda pricey after week-... not gonna be much lower...
22:05
after week one and looking at a minus 700, though... yeah. Bills have a super easy schedule. They're gonna, they're gonna have the most wins this year in the regular season. I hope so. I think.
22:13
Um, are we sure the 49ers championship window has closed? It's a great question. I don't know if I'm 100% sure, but it's getting there. [upbeat music] They just, the injuries never stop. I know.
22:27
And now Brock Purdy out two to five weeks, it's feeling... If it's not closed, that window is just cracked open by the slightest sliver. I'm a Purdy guy too. Yeah.
22:38
I w- I would've said hell no if we asked this question three weeks ago. Yeah. But like you said, these injuries, man, they can't escape them. Kittle out for weeks. That's plural as well.
22:46
Zach Cohen more are we sure coming up. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. And crack. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:37
We got tweets that beat in the book. Always appreciate the... Actually, you know what? I, I don't really wanna, I don't even wanna go to the tweets, because I, uh, I have, uh, a lot of football here to get to with Zach.
23:46
Uh, Zach Cohen joins us now. Once again, new father having the, uh, time of his life with his little baby girl, courtesy of Progressive guest line. You can follow Zach on Twitter @bettingonx.
23:56
And, uh, he is the VSiN senior editor, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. Zach, how you doing, man? How's fatherhood? I'm good. Fatherhood's good.
24:05
Like I told you, the only real chaos in the house right now is 'cause the dog cut his foot, and it has been a nightmare to deal with. So somehow- [laughs]...
24:11
the, the baby's sleeping well, but we are still having an awful time here. How'd the dog cut his foot? We went to the groomers.
24:17
They were, they were cutting, you know, around his foot, and they said he jumped and, uh, just sliced it open. Uh-oh. He needed, he needed stitches. He needed the cone. Uh, the, the, the cone's finally off.
24:26
The stitches are finally off, but now he won't stop licking the paw. Sounds like a lawsuit to me. [laughs] Groomers, watch out. The cone. The cone is always tricky. The cone. Yeah. Uh, big dog or little dog, Zach?
24:36
I don't know, I don't know whether to think big dog or little- Pretty big. I mean, 60 pounds. Oh, okay. All right. All right Gets, gets along with your little girl okay? He's, he's taking it well? Yeah, he loves her.
24:44
Oh, good. Okay. Yeah. Um, so let's just get the t- the tennis, for those wondering, 'cause we have gotten a few tweets on this, is there tennis after the US Open? For me, it's yes, but not this week.
24:55
Um, the lines for Guadalajara, they only 500. First of all, the men are not even playing. The women have a 500 and a 250, the, the Guadalajara tournament.
25:03
Most of the lines don't come out 'til the morning when I'm on air, so I c- it, my schedule's usually when they're out at night, that's when I'm handicapping, or the previous day. Are you betting anything this week?
25:13
Have you been betting? Yeah, I have been betting. I haven't been doing very well.
25:17
I mean, I, I will be betting and, and, you know, I'll pick things up a little bit, especially with the write-ups on vsi.com once the Asian swing really starts. Yes.
25:24
I mean, there are some really big tournaments coming up.
25:26
It's, it's a really weird calendar, the tennis calendar, 'cause I mean, it feels like it should end after the US Open, but then you have a few 1,000 level events in, in a couple of weeks, and those are p- you know, tournaments that the players do take very seriously.
25:37
Seoul, Korea, Beijing, China. I will be, uh, r- anxiously handicapping those. And then of course the WTA finals and the ATP finals, uh, later this year. So, uh, it all comes to football. Let us start with, uh, the NFL.
25:50
What do you like week number two in the National Football League? I, I do have the Commanders tonight, uh, plus three and a half, and I have some player props in the game.
25:58
Uh, Deebo Samuel over four and a half, uh, receptions. Uh, Jayden Daniels over 14 and a half longest rush.
26:04
And really the handicap for me comes down to, I, I just think that, you know, Parsons is going to have a lot of trouble getting to Jayden Daniels.
26:11
I think that this Green Bay pass rush, this defensive line, it's very good, it's very talented, but that type of stuff goes out the window when you're talking about, you know, a mobile quarterback like Daniels, uh, especially when you add a Tunsil to the mix.
26:24
I think Washington is up for the challenge of blocking those guys, and I think Daniels is up for the challenge of escaping those guys.
26:29
And I do think we're gonna see a few plays where, you know, Daniels gets around the pressure and runs for a long, you know, a long run or two, and I do think that Deebo is just gonna be a big part of the game plan again.
26:39
I mean, last week, uh, seven receptions on 10 targets. I think this week we're gonna see a few more screen passes to him.
26:44
I think that Kingsbury is really good at kind of dialing up screens to beat blitzes, and I think we're gonna see some of that tonight. Uh, between you and Warren Sharp yesterday, a lot of Washington over props.
26:55
Uh, he had McLaurin over receiving yards. He had Austin Ekeler over two and a half catches, so you're going over Deebo catches. Um, and then also, uh, what was the one before you had Deebo? You had who?
27:06
Uh, longest rush for Daniels, over 14 and a half. There you go. Okay. So a lot of, uh, Washington over props. From your lips to God, as my mother used to say on all of this.
27:15
[laughs] I, I too am on Washington plus three and a half points, uh, from yesterday. Um, where else this weekend do you go?
27:23
Uh, my next biggest one is Broncos money line, uh, minus 120 against the Colts, and I was pretty much, you know, I would say higher on the Colts than a lot of other people were, but I still think, you know, this line is a major overreaction to what we saw in week one.
27:36
I just think Denver, last year that was a top five defensive team in the league.
27:40
Uh, all they did was add talent to that defense, so I really think things are going to get better on that side of the ball, and I don't really kind of doubt the Broncos offense, not with Sean Payton as the head coach.
27:51
So I really feel like what we saw last week against the Titans was a little bit of a fluke, and we do see that from time to time in week one.
27:57
And I think the Colts, I mean, I, I think it's a solid team, but Jones was dynamite last week and I don't see him doing that against Denver this week.
28:03
Were you part of the, of the, uh, the ATS millions carnage this past week? How did, how did your week go in week one? I had a pretty good week one. Good. I mean, I did not play anything in that Broncos or Colts game.
28:16
So I, I was not in the millions contest, but I'd had a pretty solid week one except for, of course, I had the Ravens Sunday night and that killed me. Yeah. Yeah. Stand in line, my friend. [laughs] So many of us did.
28:27
Um, I still can't get over that game. Still can't get over it. One more NFL before we do college? I haven't put it in yet.
28:33
I'm going to write the game up for vsi.com, uh, probably Sunday, but I have a slight lean on the Buccaneers on the money line right now, plus 125 against the Texans.
28:43
I just think that that Houston offensive line is terrible, and I think that the Texans wide receiver situation right now is a nightmare. So I, I kind of think that's a really good spot to be grabbing plus money odds.
28:52
I think Tampa Bay is a little bit better defensively this year, and I think that offense is great a- as always. So I, I think that you're getting a plus money price on the better team.
29:00
And I, I know Houston has a tough home field advantage, but I'm gonna need to see something from that team before, you know, I, I back them against a good opponent.
29:07
I thought last week, you know, the Rams should have beaten them by a little bit more. Yeah, I'm with you there, Zach. I, I think Bu- Bucs are a great teaser leg this week. Uh, take them up to eight and a half. Yeah.
29:15
That's how I played 'em. A- hey, Houston, I, I wanna like them, but those o- the, the offensive line's a real concern.
29:20
And, hey, like N- Nico couldn't get much going, but, like, he's not gonna get much going if that offensive line can't stop anybody. So a team I think could do st- some things this year, but gotta see it first.
29:30
A whole bunch of good games- And the Cowboys are a good teaser leg too, by the way. Cowboys, good teaser leg, yeah. Um, I like the Chiefs as a teaser leg too, hosting the, uh, the Eagles.
29:40
Get that through the three and the seven as well. You got the one and a half on that game? Yeah, there are a couple places. Wow. Yeah. Uh, college football, Zach. A lot of good games.
29:47
A&M, Notre Dame, Florida, LSU we talked about with, uh, with Tim Murray earlier. South Florida, Miami after South Florida's gone 2-0. Uh, Georgia, Tennessee. Uh, do you go to any of those games or somewhere else?
29:59
Yeah, so I have write-ups on five of the biggest match-ups of the week on the website right now, but the biggest play that I have is on Texas A&M, plus seven and a half, and I also sprinkled some plus 220 on the money line.
30:09
I think that that's a game that is really fascinating. Uh, Notre Dame is coming off a bye.
30:14
I think that defense is going to look a lot better than it did against Miami, but I still think it's a really tough spot to be laying a touchdown.
30:21
I mean, I, I know that it is six and a half, but you can find a seven and a half at a pretty reasonable price.
30:26
I just think Texas A&M has the better offense, the better quarterback, and I do think that the Aggies have, you know, an elite offensive line and an elite group of defensive backs.
30:34
I mean, that is huge, uh, especially when talking about the secondary going against a freshman in CJ Carr that I think had some moments where he looked mistake-prone against Miami.
30:42
So I think that this is gonna be a close game, that Texas A&M has a chance to win. I have mentioned it a few times, uh, in a Heisman article before the year, uh, in my week two recap last week.
30:53
I think Marcel Reed is very alive in the Heisman, uh, Trophy conversation, and he's out there at around 30 to 1.
30:58
Just an electric runner, has improved as a passer this year, and I do think Texas A&M's receivers, uh, compared to a year ago, it's night and day. They have some elite talent in that wide receiver room now.
31:08
You, you, uh, anticipated one of my questions. So Marcel Reed, 30 to 1 Heisman Trophy, Zach. Uh, taking a look, have you bet that yourself? I, I have it at a bigger number from before the year- Oh, okay...
31:18
but I would take it at 30 to one. Okay. Um, where else are we going in college football?
31:24
I also have, uh, USC minus 21 against Purdue, and there are some 20 and a halves out there now, so you can get a better number than I did.
31:32
But USC has been the most explosive team in the country in terms of EPA per play through two weeks. I think Purdue's in really bad shape in terms of just that roster.
31:41
Uh, I think that Odom needs a little bit more time to build it. And I do think USC this year, I mean, I think we kinda saw it last year, I think D'Anton Lynn is a really good defensive coordinator.
31:50
Now they finally have some talent for him to work with, and I think that the offensive line and the running backs have gotten a lot better.
31:56
So I think that that's a team that can play a little bit more physical than we have seen in the past, but they still kinda have that explosive passing game.
32:02
So I don't see Purdue slowing them down much, and I think that USC's gonna be able to stop Purdue. Okay. Uh, all of Zach's work, again, at vsyn.com.
32:10
Pro football, college football, tennis, whatever he's betting, he's got write-ups, uh, for all of it. And, and a new w- uh, weekly, uh, column you're doing, right Zach? The, the Weekend Wrap?
32:20
Yeah, I started doing it towards the end of last season. I'm doing it every week now. It's just kind of a recap of everything that we saw, uh, in the NFL and college football. I'm putting it out Monday afternoons.
32:30
Just kinda my weird takes on futures, and, you know, what I saw and what it, how it's shaping the way that I'm looking at the rest of the season. Oh, that's great.
32:37
Like, Weekend Wrap every, uh, every weekend, uh, during football season from Zach. Uh, before we go, we got 30 seconds. Uh, our tennis dating gossip columnist is also Zach Cohen. Who... What's, what's the latest now?
32:47
Who have we got? [laughs] Yeah, Carlos Alcaraz is dating, uh, Brooks Nader from a show that my wife loves called Love Thy Nader, which apparently is, like, the new Kardashians.
32:57
So- Everybody, everybody Google Brooks Nader at the same time... that's, uh, that's the big news. [laughs] Okay. Okay. [laughs] I don't know who this is, but- She, uh- Yeah...
33:04
the rumor started that she was dating Sinner, so I guess she just took the winner of that match. Oh, that she was supposed to be dating Sinner? Really? And then the rumor- And that was the rumor.
33:12
That people were saying- [laughs]... she was dating Sinner, and now she's dating Alcaraz. Alcaraz wins twice. Wow. Um- Or someone really whiffed on that report, yeah. Yeah.
33:21
Alcaraz was rumored to have been dating Raducanu, but that was never true. Uh, just 'cause they played mixed doubles. All right. Thank you, Zach.
33:27
Uh, not only on the, on the field, on the, uh, sporting event diamond or courts or whatever, but off the field as well. Yeah, well done. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it as always. Betting on X for Zach on Twitter.
33:38
Uh, more Are We Sure and Bill Krackomberger unscripted. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Don't forget to check out VSiN's betting splits. Oh, yeah. You down with the betting splits, Kelly? Mm-hmm. You all about it? Um- Down like a clown, bro. [laughs] VSiN- Charlie Brown. What, what are you saying?
34:08
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34:31
We get tweets of Beating The Book. Uh, this is, uh, Hotdogharriet talking about the, uh, Niners window question. He said, "The door is slammed shut," and this is from someone who rode them in 20, 21, 22, and 23.
34:43
Yeah, I would expect, uh, very split opinions on that question. Uh, I, I think I, I think I'm correct. It's, it's slightly, it's like a sliver of that window is open, but that's it now, man. Yeah. That's it.
34:55
I was talking about the rest of, the rest of the world. Y- You, you think people are gonna be that rational?
35:00
[laughs] Nicola- Think people are either gonna say that window's closed, or, "No, they got Brock Purdy, it's open for years." Are you suggesting that people are not rational? Yes.
35:07
Nicholas Griggs, "So Kelly agrees with you that the Titans and Cam Ward looked better than the box score. I thought he was too sick. He couldn't watch any NFL this weekend. Must have re-watched the game."
35:16
I re-watched condensed versions of everything. I do have a show to do talking the NFL. He responded and he said, "You're a professional. Don't miss anything."
35:24
Uh, Steve the Proxy, "Jake Arrieta, 2015, went on a post All-Star break run going 12 and one with a 0.75 ERA, went on to edge out Zack Greinke and his 19 and three record, 200 K's and 1.66 ERA.
35:37
Jake Arriety- uh, Jake Arrieta, not in the All-Star game that year." There you go. Thank you, Steve the Proxy. That was well-researched right there. Wow. It really was. Steve spent the whole, a couple segments doing it.
35:46
Thank you so much, Steve. Um, let's go to our best bets brought to you by G Bank, uh, the official bank of VSiN.
35:51
I added Jayden Daniels MVP 15 to one tonight, and that is, uh, not only a stray number here at Circa, 'cause he's kinda consensus-ish 10 to one- Mm-hmm... in most spots. Yeah.
36:01
Um, but I think if Jayden has a great performance stand alone prime time game tonight, that is going to sink. Yeah. Um- Good time to bet that... have I mentioned how good Jayden Daniels is on this show?
36:11
Have I ever mentioned that before? No, he's good. Not sure if that's ever come up. Yeah, I mean, it's brought up. It's been brought up. Uh, here are my plays.
36:16
By the way, I have the Commanders plus three and a half tonight minus 120. I have the Lions minus five, uh, against the, uh, the Chicago Bears on Sunday. That's the best of it so far, 'cause that's higher now.
36:31
Steelers minus two and a half I bought down from the three earlier. And I also have the Falcons, uh, plus four against the Vikings, and that is the best of it now also, 'cause that's down to three and a half.
36:44
Again, with guessing lines, and I said this on the mega pod yesterday, I wanna say this again. Monday's guessing lines is the most authentic reaction to stuff that just comes out.
36:53
I don't know what the lines are, and so what you'll hear from me is when I am incredulous about what I'm hearing the line is, it's the best sort of reaction. Hopefully you're playing the game yourself.
37:05
It's designed to be interactive. And with both the Bears and the Vikings and those lines, I couldn't believe what they were. I couldn't believe the Vikings were that big of a favorite.
37:13
I couldn't believe the Lions were that low of a favorite. And what's interesting about that, Kelly, and I mentioned this on the mega pod, is that the Vikings line came out the next day as five and a half. Right?
37:25
So it was away from me. Mm-hmm. And then you could hear people on, like, media saying, "Oh, yeah, mine, mine five and a half. That's what it ought to be." No, man, that's why guessing lines is the best, right?
37:34
Because it's the real, true, authentic reaction when you don't know what it is. Not, "Oh," confirmation bias of, "There it is." Mm-hmm. "Let me conform my thoughts to what it is on the paper."
37:46
So that's a, just a shout-out for guessing lines every Monday on the show. You, sir. Oh, that's how it works. [laughs] No, no, no, no, but you know what I mean. No, I know what you mean. Yeah.
37:55
I just liked how you were kinda looking at me the whole time like I needed- No, no, no, no. Yeah, Kelly, I don't know if you know this show we do on Mondays. We've been doing it for a few years.
38:01
[laughs] No, I just, I just think- No, I know what you mean... I just think that needs to be- It's good practice to make your, your own numbers of any kind to try to j- judge off of this stuff.
38:08
Yes, because there are always people, "Oh, I don't, uh, I don't necessarily..." You don't have to care what my guess is. Right. You should be doing it yourself. And it's also like that- Yeah...
38:16
you don't need full-blown I, I, you know, amazingly deep, detailed power rankings. No. But, like, m- but come up with your own number always gives you a good idea of how you're gonna go into the week betting-wise.
38:25
Um- Now, will, will it manifest at the end? I have no idea, but that's- Yeah... yeah. Um, sometimes you're gonna be really far off. Well, I mean, I mean, will it result in a ATS win is what I'm saying. Right. Who knows?
38:35
We'll find out. Uh, okay, for me so far this week, Jags, Bengals over 48 and a half.
38:39
Uh, and then a couple big favorites, Bills laying six and a half, Lions laying five and a half, and I am teasing up the Falcons and Bucs to 10 and a half and eight and a half. That's all I got so far. All you got so far.
38:51
Look at, look at that. Tim Murray, college football, he's on Miami. I think Tim got this lower, but it's at 17 and a half. I think he still said he would play it against South Florida. Um, South Florida trying to go 3-0.
39:04
What a start by them. Florida's catching seven and a half, um, against LSU. He is taking the Gators plus the points, Florida plus seven and a half.
39:15
And then, uh, his Fighting Irish, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, he's going over the total, over the total from Tim Murray. Uh, he's going over 49 and a half, the Irish versus the Aggies there.
39:26
Um, and then Zach Cohen, Commodores tonight plus three and a half, taking Washington plus the points, plus the hook, though, he's got it at.
39:31
And, and by the way, three and a halves are out there, just a little extra juice on the three and a half, both at DraftKings and FanDuel.
39:37
Uh, Commanders plus three and a half, and the Thursday night tilt against the Packers. What a great Thursday Night Football matchup tonight. He has two props.
39:45
He's on Deebo over four and a half receptions, laying -138 on that. He's on Jayden, longest rush over 14 and a half yards. Jayden Daniels, get it done.
39:56
Broncos, he's taking the Broncos versus the Colts on the money line, and -120 on Sunday. And then he, in that A&M Irish game, he's actually going with the Aggies plus the points and sprinkling on the money line.
40:07
Sprinkle me, man. Also taking the Trojans and laying a 21 in the USC game. I do think, I haven't decided yet, Gil, but I think I'm gonna be on that Bron- Broncos money line or the under in that game.
40:19
I just haven't decided, but I do, I, I agree with what Zach said, a little bit of an overreaction there. Little bit of an overreaction. Well, we'll see. And you know, again, that's, that's the big task.
40:29
The big task is what we saw in week one. Yep. Where does the Colts good and the Dolphins bad begin and end? Yep. And, and, and there's no way to know without some corroboration afterwards.
40:40
But, you know, Adam Burke does a great job of pointing this out also, which is with the NFL, right, unlike baseball, baseball's 162 games. Basketball's 82 games. Hockey 82, right?
40:51
You can overcome negative variance in your handicap because things will, if, if your handicap is good, they will manifest over a great period of time.
40:59
Pro football is 17 regular season games, and college football's even less. Mm-hmm. Right? Mm-hmm. It's just, it's tough. Everything's a small sample size in football, right? Yeah.
41:09
So it's like, it's just, it's, it's a little bit of a, uh, a trickier thing. Like, bringing it back to the Niners, right? Yeah. It's like, were, were the Niners a good football team last year, Gil?
41:18
Like, I don't, I have no idea. I have no idea because they were so injured- So banged up... and we thought they were so good the entire time. It took a whole season, and I still don't know. Yeah.
41:27
Uh, best bets always brought to you by gbank. Every show, every host, every guest, every sport on this network, uh, recapped at the end. gbank built with sports betters in mind.
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41:56
Apply now at visa.com/gbank. That's visa.com/gbank. Wanna thank everybody for, uh, another great response to, uh, Megapod week number two. Week one and week two, we did them on Wednesdays.
42:08
Uh, Steve A has the studio over there at the win today for Canelo and Alvarez, so I'm sure there's a crowd over there. You guys getting lunch or something after? No, um, but you know who's there? Sway is there.
42:17
Maybe I'll, maybe I'll go say hi to Sway early in the morning tomorrow. It's like at 5:00 in the morning. Bring, bring Steve Cohen with you. He really likes Steve. He, Sway likes Steve? He really likes Steve. All right.
42:26
Uh, but a big, big shout to everybody who listens to Megapod. It's on the Beating the Book feed. And once again, the Guessing Line show on Monday- Yeah, I'm glad you're doing this, yep...
42:34
is always on the Beating the Book feed. So y- you know, usually Monday show is on the ANG feed, but not during football season. Guessing Lines goes to the Beating the Book feed, as does the Megapod.
42:43
Chris Felica, The Bear, El Oso, the guest with Todd Wischnev, Will Hill, and myself on the Megapod this week.
42:50
With our week two best bets, teaser of the week, survivor, prop of the week, all of that, including tonight's game.
42:55
Nobody, nobody out there feel bad, but I, I do get Twitter assaulted every Monday, uh, during the football season. Oh. "Where's the podcast?"
43:02
Gonna shout out to Wyatt Tomchek because Wyatt Tomchek not only had to respond to multiple people on that on Twitter, but Wyatt Cho- Tomchek with a loving editing job on the podcast show today. Yeah.
43:13
That man sat here for hours and lovingly edited what was the Megapod because there might've been a hiss or two in there. Yeah. I wanna say the, uh, the look's coming along though, huh? The look of it.
43:25
We're gonna talk about the sound, but the look of it's coming along. The look, the look improves every week. Whoo. Got a little logo up there and everything. So yeah, we'll see where that's at in a few weeks.
43:32
Couple more are we sures before we get to crack? For sure. Let me just get back to them. Of course, I have to click out of this. It's gotta find them first. Yeah, okay, Gil, are we sure- Yeah...
43:41
the Steelers are a threat to win the AFC with that gunslinger Aaron Rodgers back there? Oh, I'm sure they're not. And I'm higher on the Steelers than most.
43:50
I think they can go over their season win total, but they're not winning the, they're not getting to the Super Bowl. Eh, me too. No. I think that's a rational response to that. No.
43:56
Uh, are we sure the Chargers should be co-favorites to win the AFC West? No. I know they beat the Chiefs, but let's give, let's put some respect on that name. I'm with you. Yeah.
44:04
A- and, and I think the Broncos are a little too far back there. Yeah. All right, one more, 'cause I think these are our other silly division odds right now.
44:09
Are we sure the Jaguars should be co-favs to win the AFC South? No, even though the division's not all that great, no, I don't think they should be. Yeah. Right. I think Houston, Houston deserves that respect.
44:18
It's only been one week, people. Come on. Come on now. Bill Krackomberger, unscripted on the other side. Whatever's on his mind. See if he's salty. See if we get the salty version. It's exclusive. VSiN.
44:30
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
