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Sep 11, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026 | Hour 1
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45:27
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Good Friday morning to you. This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 189. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell- Yeah...
0:30
on this football Friday. Yes. Uh, it's Fezzik Fridays. You know that. Steve Fezzik on the show later, everything on his mind, and he does have tons on his mind, both betting and casino-wise.
0:42
Actually, it's more of a, more of a betting-focused one. I think the casino stuff is- Yeah, more sports... maybe back burner today. Uh, prior to Steve Fezzik, we'll do this backwards. Prior to Steve Fezzik, Dr.
0:52
Bob, his triumphant return to the show today, talking NFL with us. Remember, he has retired from college football and college basketball, but Bob will be here to talk about the NFL, a specific game.
1:05
Not sure what that game is yet, um, but we will steer him, and he will just, we'll just roll the ball out on the court really, and then he will do his thing.
1:12
Chris Fallica, The Bear, before that, talking college football bets, all of his NFL thoughts as well, every bet he's got in the holster. Chris Fallica will join us.
1:21
Paul Carr on the Prem, and, uh, as they say, so much more. So much more. You never, you never wanna underrate- Hey... so much more. Deep thoughts with the, about the Miami Dolphins with Paul Carr. Oh, yeah.
1:33
We can do that as well. Big time game this weekend. Uh, let us begin with the Niners and the Rams from Australia. Well, clearly we can now say with the trap... No, let me stop. It's, we don't know anything still.
1:46
But ladies and gentlemen, the San Francisco 49ers beat the, uh, beat the Los Angeles Rams 27 to seven in a game that was, uh, unremarkable [laughs] Yeah... in every [laughs] Yeah... in every possible way.
1:59
This is one-way traffic really. Um, well, we'll start at the top where first play from scrimmage for the Rams, Freddy, Fred Warner knocks the ball down. You're like, "Well, he's back." He's, yeah, he's still good.
2:09
He's back. Um, Niners, first time they had the ball after that because it was a, it was a, uh, three and out for the Rams to start the game.
2:17
First three third down conversions were to Mike Evans, their new acquisition from this off-season.
2:22
14 play, 65, uh, yard drive, but they had to settle for an Eddie Pinero 20-yard chip shot with 6:15 left in the third quarter. Were you surprised they kicked the field goal there? Uh, a little bit actually. I was too.
2:33
Yeah. A little bit. I, I don't know. I, I f- I, I felt like we were gonna be talking about it either way. Yeah. But I was a little surprised, yeah. It didn't drive me crazy, but I was a little surprised. Right, yeah.
2:42
Three to nothing Niners. Um, couple times later when the Rams had the ball, second play, second and two at the Niners 49, Stafford to Puka for 39, breaking tackles. Two plays later, Kyren in from five, Kyren Williams.
2:55
7-3 Rams three seconds into the second quarter, and maybe you were like, "Hey, look, it's the Rams." Yeah. The hype train. Hey, Gil, both teams- Um-... started off a little slow.
3:03
The Rams more s- you know, slower than the Niners, but, eh, this is now a score that we all expected. Here's where, here's where it got a little ugly. San Francisco first and 10 at the Rams 46.
3:10
Bur- uh, Purdy, bad pass picked by Quentin Lake, and Matthew Stafford said, "Hold my beer." Third and 11 at the Niners 36, Stafford picked by Renardo Green. Not a good pass either. Mm-mm. 7-3 they trail.
3:22
Niners then go on a nine play, 86-yard drive that took 4:07 off the clock. Purdy deep to DeMarcus Robinson for 30, nine out. [laughs] 10-7 Niners, a lead they would not relinquish. 4:28 left in the second quarter.
3:34
Um, Stafford was almost picked by Jack Jones later in the half, but that's how the, that's what the score would be at halftime. Purdy was 17 of 25 for 141 at the, uh, at the break.
3:43
Stafford, four completed forward passes- Oof... out of 11 attempts for 65 yards. The big one to Puka was really the majority of it. Uh, 208 to 137 in total yards in favor of the Niners.
3:55
Niners come out first thing second half. Deebo returns the opening kickoff almost to midfield. Niners then go seven plays, 51 yards, took 3:57 off the clock. Purdy to Evans from two out.
4:06
That's what you expect from Mike Evans, sort of a, a 50/50 ball. Mm-hmm. Concentrate. He grabs it. 17-7 Niners, 11:03 left in the third quarter.
4:15
Uh, and then here's where the game sort of goes from competitive to, "Oh, uh, this might just be a Niners roll." Yeah. Rams from their own 27, they get to fourth and inches at the doorstep.
4:25
By the way, Puka on third down just stopped shy of the goal line, correctly, by the way, by the, I think correctly ruled by the officials. Mm-hmm. And then fourth and inches at the doorstep,
4:36
it looked live like Stafford was completely in on the sneak. Mm-hmm. But the offi- officials were like, "No, he wasn't." And I was like, "What?" Replay showed he wasn't, not even close.
4:47
Uh, stopped by Osa Odighiz- uh, Odighizuwa, and San Francisco took over at their own one-yard line.
4:53
Now, if I had given you odds before the season, and by before the season, I mean 24 hours ago- Right, yeah, yeah [laughs]...
5:01
before the Rams season, and if I had said to you, "Hey, the Rams," you know the Rams of Aaron, Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett.
5:07
I get Aaron Donald didn't play last night, but these Rams with OJ McDuffie, that they would give up a 99-yard drive this entire season, what would you have made the odds on that? Oh, man, that's a great call.
5:19
Well- I mean, it would have to be for, for the yes to hit, I mean, major plus money, but I, I don't, I have no idea the, how often that happens to a team.
5:27
Well, they didn't get through three quarters, 'cause the Rams went 11 plays and 99 yards. Well, actually, it was in, bled, bled into the fourth quarter. Mm. 11 plays, 99 yards, 5:44, Purdy to Deebo from 15 out.
5:38
Uh, it's a better play than he made all season long it feels like in Washington last year. Dude, seriously. Uh, 24-7. I'm probably shortchanging him a little bit from his, uh, Skins, his, his great Skins era.
5:48
24-7 Niners, 12:57 left. Rams then second and two at their own 39. Stafford to Higbee for five. He fumbles. Keon White recovers. Niners really can't go anywhere with it, but they kick a Pinero 56-yard field goal.
6:00
Bangs it in. 27-7, 9:43 left. Then Rams turnover on downs when on fourth and five at the Niners 49, incomplete intended for Tutu after missing a wide open Devante two plays earlier from Stafford.
6:11
Pinero would doink a 52-yard field goal, and the Rams down 27-7. I'm curious about this end of game. With 3:29 left, they're down 20. From their own 42, they have all their timeouts, they put Stetson Bennett in.
6:25
Were you a little surprised they just ran out the clock? Oh, totally. Especially that they're inside the 20 at one point. No, it, it's, it's, it's the NFL. Every game is so massive. I was, I was pretty floored.
6:38
So I, I actually... And by the way, that's your final score- But, but like-... 27-7. Purdy 25 of 34 for 205. Niners led in total yards, 379 to 290, and Stafford ends up 15 of 25 for 155.
6:49
Puka got almost half of that with 74. Yeah, I just, I, I mean, Gil, it's just the, it... You're watching that game and you know everything's gone wrong for the Rams.
6:58
It's just, I think that was, him coming in the game was even more of a tell of, oh, maybe this is even worse, like, on the sidelines and, you know, what, what's, what's going on with this team than we're even seeing.
7:08
Well, I threw that out in the group chat last night. I'm like, "Is anybody else surprised by how this, how the Rams just sort of were like, 'Yeah, we're good'"? I, I was. And, and didn't score.
7:16
And Fezzik, who will be on later, he chimed in, um, at his own leisure, by the way. He chi- he chimed in, "Maybe we're all missing the point that the Rams just didn't care at all about this game."
7:27
I, I mean, like, and that's, that, I think that's the, that would be the other take, right? But the, y- how do you have that approach in the National Football League? Like, that, it is, it, every game is worth so much.
7:37
Every win is worth so much, and I... You know, we've had this conversation- A division game against- Yes... one of your two big division rivals. Yes.
7:44
I mean, like, and this is different from a conversation we've had, like, all summer about the Dodgers, right? Of like, they just wanna get it. They're not necessarily chasing the best record, they just wanna get it.
7:53
Sure, the Rams are thinking that way, too, but it's really e- it's really easy- You can't do that in the NFL... for things to go wrong real quick in the NFL. Also, by the way, that's your home game against the Niners.
8:02
Yep. It should be pointed out. Um, so th- I thought that was interesting, but that's a cousin, what Fezzik said, but that's a cousin of what I was kinda saying all off season, right, with the travel.
8:11
I know we can pil- finally put the travel to bed here. Mm. By the way, hey, earlier teams to arrive, Europe and, uh, Australia- Still looking good... goes to 18 and 9 against the spread. That's crazy.
8:22
Um, but it's kind of a cousin of what I was saying all off season, which is, where I believe it will affect the Niners is on the way back. Mm-hmm.
8:31
Now, I know they get the Dolphins, so maybe we won't see it in terms of win-loss, but maybe whatever the spread ends up being, we will see it. That, that was always my hunch. I said it a number of times.
8:41
The impli- the, the insinuation of that or the, the, also the, the tangent to that is therefore, the Rams will not be affected as much the way they played it on the way back. Right.
8:50
And maybe the Rams, who again, did the whole test run where they sent personnel, "Hey, why don't you guys fly to Melbourne and back?" [laughs] By the way, L. Duncan, you can pronounce it Melbourne.
8:59
You don't have to say Melbourne, by the way. Um, nice, nice outfit, though. Uh, maybe the Rams the whole time were just like, "Yeah, whatever happens here happens." But, but I'm with you.
9:10
I, if, if that is in fact the case, that's awfully casual. It's just pretty shocking to me. Awfully casual. A- and then, well, I guess the other... I mean, okay, but the takeaways from this game, Myles Garrett, right?
9:20
One of the worst games he's ever played, period. Well, he even said, he even said after the game, uh, quote, "The worst version of myself that I've put out there." Yeah. Saying his knee was not 100% healthy. Um-
9:32
What was it, w- It should also be mentioned Trent Williams was on the other side of the line of scrimmage. You, I am so glad you just said that, 'cause we, the, some of these guys we just don't give enough credit.
9:40
I mean, that is one of, if not the best offensive tackles in football, and it's... Hey, that, that, that was a Hall of Fame battle you got to watch last night. Yeah. He's also a giant. Yeah, he is.
9:48
You know, it's, I mean, a, a h- a, a huge giant. But was it one tackle and zero pressures? I mean, these were, like, I mean, shocking stats from Myles Garrett.
9:55
And I guess where I was going with that, Gil, is if, like, you were really punting on this game and his knee was really hurting, why did you bring Myles Garrett? Right. Might would've left him at home, too.
10:03
It's very true. Uh, the other thing w- interesting that, that, uh, Kaylaon Black got a, got most of the carries for the Niners in the first half.
10:11
It felt like a bit, a little bit of, "Hey, just so you guys know, we're gonna load manage C- Mm-hmm... uh, CMC this year- Agreed... a little bit.
10:18
Even though I know he was, he was playing down the stretch, but there was a little bit of that that was interesting, I thought. Um- The box score itself, I think, is fascinating to go through.
10:25
If you're, you know, if you're a better or a fantasy player, I mean, I, the... Like, Evans, Evans looked solid. Like, I don't, I'm sure- Oh my God, yeah... I'm sure you had your questions.
10:34
In fa- I had my questions- Yeah... over Evans and Deebo and concerns about them of how are they gonna look. Mike Evans, i- if he looks like that every game, he's gonna be a major addition for this offense.
10:43
And Deebo, like, I thought he was washed last year. This- I don't know if he was washed, but definitely in training camp, those videos we saw, he was like- I would've said he was washed.
10:50
I didn't think you were gonna get anything out of that guy this year. Um- We'll see how long it lasts. Congratulations to all had the Niners. Yeah. As, as I did on this one. This was, this was easy peasy.
10:59
Yeah, well done. If they, if they were only all this easy, as we like to say. Um, Niners win at 27-7. And I feel like, Kelly, I should... These were the two games I had the most conviction on all week. Mm-hmm.
11:09
Seattle, at the time it was laying three and a half, right? By game time it was, it was three- Mm-hmm... consensus. Um, I feel like I should be 2 and 0 as opposed to 1-0 and 1 in millions and 1 and 1 in the mega pod.
11:24
Again, with the, with the Seahawks. Lost their starting quarterback five plays in. Uh, New England touchdown set up by a PI on a woefully underthrown pass by May.
11:33
Roughing the punter led to a Pats field goal that made it 10 to nothing. Touchdown negated for the Seahawks on an illegal shift. Delay of game when they had second and one at the New England three.
11:42
With under six minutes left, had to settle for a field goal. I mean, on and on till the break of dawn as to why Seattle should have probably covered that. But we'll take the Niners win. It is the NFL. It's Plinko.
11:52
We know how this goes. Congratulations to all. That was a pretty dominant performance. Coming back on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
12:00
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12:44
Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We got tweets from Australia. Ooh. Tenalach. Uh, "Many camps in Australia are obviously the formula for winning. 49ers plus 3 1/2 Gilly Cash.
12:59
The umpires didn't need to mimic our weird goal confirmation, though. Back to watching games 4:00 AM onwards. Love your show, guys." Yeah, that's when they watch the NFL, middle of the night, dead of the night.
13:07
Thank you, Tenalach, for listening. Mm-hmm. We always appreciate it. Yeah. Fake Follower, "You were correct, 27-7. Point made. I've traveled to Australia from New York, and it's coming back that kills you.
13:16
Fade LA next week against my Giants," unquote. I don't know about that. I think it's gonna affect the Niners a little more, but again, Niners have to play the Dolphins, so we might not see it in the win loss column.
13:25
And PAW has chimed in. He says, "Looking way too much into week one in the NFL again. Season begins week four, if not five." Okay, PAW, that's right. Football banned for the next three, four weeks. Yeah. That's it.
13:38
Totally. We're just not gonna talk about it- Wait, is this, is this point-... 'cause you don't want us to... of just, like, we kinda really, it takes four weeks before we really know what's going on?
13:44
I don't know what his point is. I think that's probably it. Which that I kind of agree with. We al- we, it, look, it's fun. Yeah.
13:50
It's a fun game and, and it happens to us betting it every year, right, of the week one overreactions, week two overrea- Oh. What's really, what's an overreaction and what's happening?
14:00
That, there's no question about that, but what are, what are we supposed to do, not talk about these games? Oh, I'm, yeah, I'm not talking about that. Yeah, okay.
14:05
Um- Then you got some of the guys, too, who drag their feet adjusting power ratings, not naming any names or anything. [laughs] Sometimes you're like, there's overreaction.
14:12
There's like, you, you gotta react to this somehow, man. Yes. Me screaming at Rufus four or five years ago. [laughs] "Tampa Bay sucks." There's that. Um, so it's a little injury update. So everybody- Yeah...
14:22
who had Dejon Stribling for, uh, Offensive Rookie of the Year, oh boy. Yeah. Oh, seriously. It's, it's not an Achilles, so let's just get that off the table, but they're, what, running tests today to find out what it is.
14:33
Yeah, it sounds like they're, so they ruled out Achilles there. Achilles intact. It sounds like the other tests are gonna take place back in the U- US. Uh, from the previous game, A.J. Brown, high ankle sprain.
14:44
That is, uh, expected to sideline him for at least four weeks. Let me do what you just did with the last one. Uh, you can tear up my A.J. Brown Offensive Player of the Year ticket. Yeah.
14:52
That one's toast, so- Thank you... sorry if you tailed me on that one. And here's the, here's the weirdest one of them all. Tom Pelissero reporting about Sam Darnold.
15:01
Sam Darnold believed to have suffered, quote, "unusual muscle strain in the hip area." IR is not currently under consideration.
15:10
Yeah, this is some weird reporting around this one, Gil, 'cause- Hey, Kelly, what happened to you? I don't have an unusual strain. I, I, me, too. W- what, the past two days we've had an unusual- Uh-huh...
15:19
and then the trim, right? The meniscus trim for Brock Bowers. Meniscus trim. I've never heard these ever before. Eh, just take a little off the top. We only talk NFL every single year.
15:27
I've never once heard these words used- [laughs]... ever for, for an injury.
15:30
These things hap- by the way, when I was a kid, and people of a certain age will remember this, you know what was a common injury, specifically for running backs also? Something they used to call hip pointers. Yeah.
15:39
We, no- What happened to hip pointers? Nobody ever has hip pointers anymore. What are those now? I don't know. What are those called? I feel like even stingers are going away. I don't- Nobody gets a stinger anymore.
15:46
Wilbur Montgomery of the Eagles just got himself a hip pointer. Unfortunate for the Eagles. Great call. Yeah. [laughs] Surprise, probably what Sam Darnold has, we just, like, call it different things now.
15:55
Yeah, maybe it was j- maybe it was an unusual strain is all it was.
15:59
I, I, it's just weird because they're using, the reporters are using that type of wording, but then they're also, seemingly it's, like, positive news out of Seattle, where they're like, "This could've been way worse."
16:11
So I don't really know what to make of that, but we're not gonna see him for a week.
16:13
The other thing I'd like to talk about has nothing to do with pro football, but while we were watching the Rams and Niners, which was the opposite of a classic yesterday, for sure, were you a little, by the way, were you a little thrown off by how [laughs] it's like we knew it was Friday morning Melbourne time the whole time.
16:28
Dude, I, I know where we're going with this. But then it was so bright. It was like- It was so bright, yes. [laughs]... it was like a college football Saturday morning.
16:33
And I was, I was like, "Well, this is a little weird." Do they not make clouds in Australia? It's crazy. The best tweet I got yesterday, I'm sorry I can't remember who did it, 'cause I wanna give him credit.
16:42
Uh, but the best tweet was somebody q- quoted where he goes, he goes, "You think the Jonas Brothers traveled early?" [laughs] That's great. That's great. That's a great quote.
16:51
Um- All, all the foul ground looks funny, too. Oh, so much foul ground. Yeah, the foul territory, but, like, I don't, you know, like, kind of like we were saying, which w- we should have expected that, I guess.
16:59
100,000 seat stadium. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Right, it's gotta be a lot of foul ground. Well, and not designed for a football field, right? Yeah.
17:05
Okay, so the other one was the University of Miami was playing football on the other screen against FAMU. Hey, volume up at Fontainebleau. More important game.
17:13
[laughs] So at the Fontainebleau, apparently what happens, at, at Fontainebleau, pardon me, what happens there is, oh, we have decided, we have figured out... Now, we haven't figured out.
17:21
We actually know this to be true. I, p- pretty much I know this to be true, yes. You, so sportsbook usually operate the ga- you know, the marquee NFL game- Mm-hmm... will always get center stage.
17:32
They also operate under the other principle when there's not an NFL game, the thing that's most bet will often get a, a screen. But at the Fontainebleau, what you're saying is they will even override an NFL game.
17:42
Hey, look, they, the, I did s- I sent you that video. Yeah. It was at the very beginning. They did eventually switch- Oh, okay... to the NFL audio.
17:48
But I was, I was sitting there, 'cause I brought this up during the draft. Do you remember that? My dad's head exploding that they wouldn't put the draft audio on. That, that Biddler was not happy.
17:55
He said, "W- why are all these hockey playoff games on and I can't get the NFL draft?" He was losing his mind.
18:00
Uh, and I love the Fontainebleau, but it is, it's just comical, 'cause it's a bit smaller boutique kinda like sportsbook, and it's kinda more old school.
18:07
Like, you come with serious cash and you want your game on, you're good. They'll, they'll put it on for you. So it took probably, it was probably, like, 15 minutes, Gil.
18:16
But I s- I sent you that video and I was like, I'm, like, counting the minutes. I'm like, "How long? How long?" Like, they gotta flip NFL audio on, right? Finally they went there. Well, so University of Miami,
18:27
um- Close game They had 856 yards of offense How many? That can't possibly be true what you just said. 856 yards of offense in a 77 to seven beat down of Florida A&M. They also had 42 first downs.
18:45
Now, here's the thing. We're, you know, we're live betting all this stuff, right? Yeah. And so at some poi- I'm just curious. By the way, there are betting lessons to be learned.
18:53
I think Fezzik might wanna talk about this as well. There are betting lessons to be learned in all of this. But, like, Mario Cristobal, what, what is enough? [laughs] What, can we, can we...
19:05
Like, at what point did we decide that- Eh... like, running up the score was okay? And I know this generation's like, "I mean, like, if you hate it so much, stop us." Like, come on, man.
19:15
These kids are just getting brutalized. I know you had your fourth string out there, and I know you were tr- [laughs] But I'm just saying, he's passing the ball into the end zone- Yeah...
19:24
up 70 to seven and up 77 to seven. Like, it's ridiculous. Anyway, uh, one of us might have had a, uh, in-game under. That's why maybe I'm whining as well. Mm.
19:33
Because the in-game under got eclipsed by the, the final couple touchdowns. Um, actually, the last touchdown itself could've gotten there.
19:40
But I'm just saying, like, that, there's a betting lesson in there that apparently no one cares about being kind at the end of football games anymore. So I wonder, Gill, and I, and I, and I'm with...
19:51
I didn't have a single bet in the game, so I'm gonna side- Yeah... with you here, okay? Yeah. 'Cause I don't really care, but you're right. Nobody seems to, uh, nobody seems to operate that way anymore, but the...
19:58
You know, what, the only way you can kinda get up for some of these match-ups like this one last night is the old line of like, "Hey, these kids have played each other in high school," right?
20:07
A bunch of these kids, right?
20:08
So I mean, I know it's a little bit different era with all the transfers and the portal and stuff, but still, you got a lot of kids from South Florida that end up at these schools in very different levels.
20:18
So you expect FAMU to come in with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. Okay, they get blown out. And you do... I, my mind turns the other way, like, at a certain point.
20:25
"Okay, so these kids played against each other in high school. Like, why are we running up the score on them," you know?
20:30
Like, it's- And they did knock the game down from 15 minutes in the fourth quarter to 10 minutes in the fourth quarter as well. Which is, what, the third time we've seen that now this season? I believe so, yeah.
20:37
I believe so. Just something, yeah, something to keep in mind. I should probably check. Maybe I didn't lose that. Maybe I, maybe I thought I lost it, but I, but I didn't. Um, nope, I lost it. [laughs] I did.
20:47
I had the u- Is he, uh- I had the under 78 and a half, by the way. It should be pointed out. Oh, man. I- God, Miami covers, it should be pointed out, the, uh, 61, 60 point spread, 60 and a half, somewhere in there. Yeah.
20:57
Yeah. Pretty easily. Yeah, I know the- As it turns out... I know the answer to this question, but my God, you t- you talk about the betting streaks and how, like, when you just get on them and they seem like they go bad.
21:07
Do you ever feel like a house rule ever goes in your favor? [laughs] Like, I, I, I'll let you know the first time where I'll be like, "Wow, I got lucky because of this house rule."
21:16
It happens, but it's certainly seldom it feels like. Um, okay, so Miami, by the way, eight to one to win the national championship. Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas, and Georgia still shorter.
21:25
Big showdown, of course, between Ohio State and Texas. Uh, tomorrow we'll get Chris Fallica's thoughts on that and all of his college football plays here coming up on the show. Real quick September wins update.
21:35
I know we had a very short slate of, uh, MLB games because we got Paul Carr coming up on the other side. I wanna squeeze this in. There's only five games in Major League Baseball. Right now, uh, it's pretty much a scrum.
21:46
The Dodgers, uh, are amongst the group with seven wins. Dodgers have seven too. It's actually only two teams with seven wins, Dodgers and Pirates. Pirates. Did you have that? The Buccos are like, "We're not done.
21:57
We can still make the playoffs." Uh, they're both seven and two. By the way, a flirtation with a no-no yesterday for a little bit. Dodgers, Pirates both seven and two.
22:04
Then it's the Yankees and Mets at six and two, the Athletics and Brewers at six and three. Our Red Sox and our Blue Jays stuck on five right now. Five wins, two wins back. You really can't say early stages of September.
22:20
I mean, we're moving- Yeah... up to the midway point because remember, it's a truncated month, so that's it. About, you know, somewhere around 16, 17 games left in the season for these teams. That's it. Come on.
22:31
Still time. Come on, Blue Jays. But you're right. Every, every one of these, every one of these games now is huge. Can't, you, you can't lose to the Angels, Red Sox, and you can't lose to the Athletics, Blue Jays. Mm.
22:39
And yet you did. Pirates. Seven and two. I think twice, right, in both cases. That's not good. Yeah, Pirates seven and two. I thought the Pirates were donezo. Yeah, seriously. Late run. Here they come.
22:51
They are eight to one, by the way, to win September, if you're interested in that. Dodgers minus 105, which was mar, our third choice.
22:59
Paul Carr on the prim, three pack of picks next on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:13
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidlin. Hey. Later on the show, we go through every single NFL, not every single, remaining NFL game this week.
23:23
Bum, bum, bum. Week number one in the National Football League. My millions is in. One O and one start. Dude. My survivor's not in yet.
23:32
I know people are gonna, some people are gonna get sick of us talking Survivor 'cause we love it so much. Ugh. But we are, it's week one. It's week one, Gill.
23:39
I have changed my mind probably 15 times in the past three days of what I'm doing with my entries. Obsession. Yeah.
23:46
Uh, real quick, and I do mean real quick, as unremarkable as, uh, as the football game was last night, tennis, uh, we split our overs. Got the over in the Elena Rybakina win over Coco Gauff.
23:58
Rybakina coming from one set down. Rybakina advances to the women's final at the US Open to take on Aryna Sabalenka, who would not let us get the over in the Sabalenka-Pegula match yesterday because
24:10
it was 5-5 in the first. We're trending beautifully, and then all of a sudden Aryna Sabalenka just went- Yeah... pulverize on Pegula. She was awesome. Too awesome for our over. Mm.
24:24
Uh, she made quick work of Pegula after that, wins it in straight sets. Uh, we do not get that one, so we s- we split on that. We lose the, the s- the pennies on juice there.
24:33
Um, no plays for me probably anymore in this tournament. It's the men's semis today. I think both guys are properly favored. Ben Shelton big favorite over Frances Tiafoe. Yep. Even though I'm rooting for Tiafoe.
24:45
And then Sasha Zverev big favorite over Karen Khachanov Sasha Zverev and Ben Shelton look like they're on a collision course here for the men's final. No plays for me today in this.
24:54
Here at Circa, Zverev -435, steeper most other places. You've got Shelton -285. That'll be a fun one to watch, though, today. And then, [clears throat] in the women's finals, Sabalenka -145, Rybakina +125.
25:08
Which I think is also properly priced. Yeah.
25:10
I looked ahead to that, I'm like, that's exact- I was hoping Sabalenka was gonna be a much bigger favorite, and then I would've been on Rybakina, but that's about where it should be. Yeah, gotcha. I, I agree.
25:19
She was impressive at the end of that last one. Sabalenka trying to go back to back to back with US Opens. Ooh. Yeah. Sitting on four majors. Rybakina's sitting on two majors, titles that is, right now.
25:30
Uh, we got tweets to be in the book, but let me just read a couple before Paul. Andrew Dessler. Andrew Dressler, pardon me. "Evans and Debo still looking slow? Keep up the great work, gentlemen."
25:39
Yeah, no, they're not looking slow after last night. Well, you know, what they, Evans did exactly what you would expect from Mike Evans, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
25:44
I don't think either one of us watched that game and were like, "Oh my God, they're so fast." That's not really their strength, right?
25:49
I, I would also, I would also describe it as I had questions about Mike Evans coming into the season. Yeah. Not really concerns. Debo, I had major concerns about.
25:57
JasonH11, "I get a hip pointer every morning I get out of bed." [laughs] You know what? I looked up hip pointer, 'cause I was curious. A term invented in 1967.
26:06
A deep bruise or contusion to the upper ridge of the pelvic bone, known as the iliac crest or the nearby hip area.
26:14
But again, used commonly only in sports journalism, usually from a hard blow from a helmet near sports equipment.
26:20
I don't hear anybody using that term anymore, so maybe, I don't know if that's what Sam Darnold has or not.
26:24
And then, uh, Shrek McPhee, "I turned off the NFL debacle right in time to hear the crowd audibly gasp as Coco was saving a second match point. What was that? Watching it live, you knew she was gonna gag it.
26:33
I thought the crowd was on her side." Well, they were on her side, but Elena Rybakina's steely. I mean, when she won Wimbledon, you didn't even see it on her, like, no expression on her face. Mm-hmm.
26:42
She, uh, she can fight her way through anything. Uh, let's talk some soccer. Paul Carr joins us. Paul, as excited for the beginning of his Miami Dolphins season as he is for the Prem being in full effect.
26:52
He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, @PaulCarr. He comes to us from the heartland. How you doing, man? Miami Dolphins, the whole city of the Premier League.
27:04
I can just hope that the Dolphins can get off to an inexplicable hot start like Hull City has. Uh, what are you hoping for against the Raiders? What are you, what are, were you really hoping for?
27:13
Realistically, what are you thinking is the bar here? I mean, obviously you wanna win. You, s- then you just kinda trickle down from there. You wanna be competitive.
27:23
You don't wanna get blown out by Kirk Cousins and the Raiders and no Brock Bowers. Uh, mostly just, like, wanna see a team. You know, they lost a lot of players. The offensive line has some promise, but is young.
27:35
The wide receivers, who knows? I think I'm starting a wide receiver, so I need to get out there. Mm-hmm. I, I'd would just like to see this look like a coherent team, which is maybe a pretty low bar.
27:45
Raiders favored by three. It's like, it is like, it's like the whole season for the Dolphins. [laughs] Like, either, like, you win this game or you might as well just start tanking and right after it, boy.
27:53
[laughs] Uh, okay. Yeah, that's pretty much it. How'd we do in the Champions League this week, by the way? Two and one this week. There we go. We, yeah, cashed two of 'em.
28:00
PSG got it done, and Napoli-Arsenal was under very easily, so yeah. Paul Carr moving the chains. There we go. What he does. All right, to the Prem.
28:10
Um, let's, before we get to your three picks, give me any macro thoughts here in the very early going. What have we learned? Oh, well, um, I'm not sure. Uh, the teams at the top are the teams at the top.
28:21
I mean, your top four is Man City, Arsenal, Hull City, Chelsea. Obviously we don't expect Hull City to stay there. They're still, like, minus 200 to be relegated.
28:28
But that Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea trio is the consensus three best teams, I think, for most people. Give or take a Manchester United. And, but Arsenal still looks like the best team.
28:38
They have clearly the best defense, as we'll get to. Uh, City and Chelsea have potential, just unsure if they can hold up over the course of the season.
28:45
So top three, getting into those top three spots, and Hull City, I mean, that's kind of the story of the league so far, that they're in third place- [laughs]...
28:52
and have a loss and haven't got a, given up a goal, but I still think that's fluky. Yeah, Paul, by the way, two and one in the Champions League.
28:57
Also, two and one in the Prem when he came and gave his three-pack of picks for the Prem a week ago.
29:02
Uh, and we were joking at one point, if you just keep fading Hull City and you still get a two and one every week, um- Yeah... that, that, that's- Very glad,
29:11
last week I went with the under in the Hull City, Aston Villa game, which is good, 'cause I was gonna fade 'em and take Villa, and it ended up being another nil-nil game that Hull really should've lost.
29:19
So the under hit, and I would've been beating my head against the wall again had Villa not won that and I'd taken them. Okay, let's get to the picks, which include a Hull City game. What do you got? Yeah.
29:30
The weekly, yeah, how do we fade Hull City this week? Uh, this week we're gonna do both teams to score no in Chelsea and Hull City.
29:36
So essentially, with Chelsea at home, you're kind of betting Hull's not gonna score a goal with the backdoor of maybe Chelsea doesn't too.
29:43
Uh, so I mentioned, Hull hasn't conceded a goal yet, but, and they've only, and they've scored three goals themselves. But they've taken the fewest shots in the league. They have the fewest expected goals at 2.3.
29:53
They're really middle of the pack defensively with the underlying numbers.
29:56
So we're at three games where there's obvios- obviously some opponent differences in play, but the numbers are starting to be the numbers at this point. So again, Hull is not a top five team.
30:07
I don't think they're a top half team. Look at those relegation odds, minus 200 or so. Uh, Chelsea shouldn't have a problem scoring here.
30:14
And while they haven't been great defense, I just don't think Hull has generated enough, uh, consistently. Again, less than an expected goal per game. So minus 110 on both teams to score no is my play here. All right.
30:25
Um, and then Liverpool and Fulham, you have a total. We're going over three and a half here, plus 115. Uh, Fulham's averaging about four expected goals per game total in their matches.
30:36
The last two have both been three to two games, losing to Chelsea, uh, and Palace. Their defense has been pretty leaky all season.
30:44
Uh, they- Will push forward to chase a goal, which is generally a good thing, but it also opens you up at the back. Uh, Liverpool's been pretty open too.
30:52
They haven't had quite the attack, uh, that they've had the last couple years yet with Mo Salah gone and company, but the defense and midfield also has not quite been coherent either, so they're giving up stuff on the other end.
31:02
They've scored twice in both of their games. They've conceded twice in two of the three others. Uh, so I think we're gonna have goals here one way or the other, so over three and a half at plus 115 for me. Okay.
31:13
And then speaking of Arsenal, which we, you alluded to earlier, Arsenal win to nil. Kind of just wanna play this every week. Not really, but kind of.
31:23
[laughs] Uh, yeah, so Arsenal win to nil against Sunderland at plus 115. Uh, I guess some books will have this listed as a win to nil or win to zero.
31:30
Some books you can build a parlay of Arsenal win and both teams to score no, but you should be able to get about the same price either way.
31:37
Uh, they've won to nil in four of five games in all competitions so far this season, and running a little bit hot, but they've conceded one goal and only two and a half or so expected goals total in those five games.
31:48
And, and we have a track record. They, this is what they've done for the past two, three seasons. They've been the best defensive team in the world.
31:54
They don't give up a lot of opportunities, and they don't give up very good opportunities, which is obviously a good combination from a defensive perspective.
32:00
Uh, Sunderland, three goals in their three games so far, but they played a couple of the worst defenses in the league, we think, in Fulham and Ipswich, so it's not that impresses, impressive that they put up those three goals and four expected goals.
32:12
So yeah, kind of simple here. Arsenal, much better team. Best defense in the world. Win to nil at Sunderland. All right, Chelsea, Hull City, both teams to score, no, no, minus 110.
32:23
Liverpool, Fulham over three and a half goals, plus 115. Arsenal win to nil, plus 115. Obviously looking for the 3-0 sweep, but we'll settle for the 2-1, the Paul Carr moving the chains- Mm-hmm... common, uh, outcome.
32:35
Real quick last minute here. Uh, it is 25 years since 9/11, which is just so- Yeah... mind-boggling for those of- Yeah... us who, who remember it to just process that it's been a s- a quarter of a century.
32:47
Were you at ESPN- Mm-hmm... yet at that point, or was that- No. No, you weren't there yet, right? I was a senior in college, and I still remember. My roommate came tearing down the stairs.
32:56
Like, I'd just gotten up, and he's like, "Do you know what's happened?" I had no clue what was going on, and we just kinda like sat there and stared at the TV for a huge chunk of the day. Yeah. Yeah, it was a weird one.
33:05
As- Obviously... as so many did. What, what, uh, in your time at ESPN, what was the sto- I mean, nothing as big as 9/11, but what was, what is the- Oh... w- give us a glance into a sports, uh, broadcast. Yeah.
33:16
What, what goes on? The thing I remember most, like, not sports-related news was Sandy Hook, 'cause that's like an hour from Connecticut.
33:24
Um, it was kind of the end of a show, and we, there was nothing we could really do, you know?
33:29
It wasn't like national news, but it just started trickling back in and, you know, we had, like, researchers who lived there and stuff like that, and that was a, that was a tough one to process. Yeah.
33:38
N- n- nothing like 9/11, though, in terms of- No, no... just the, the broad scope of- Correct... of, of obviously affecting every human being in this country 'cause we just could not process what was happening.
33:50
Sandy Hook was its own calamity, of course. Yeah. In a different realm. Paul Carr, uh- Mm-hmm... with his three-pack of plays in the Premier League. Paul, thank you. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Have a good weekend.
34:00
Paul Carr, everybody. NFL next on The Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:17
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34:51
Hey, Danny Higgins, producer number 10, has chimed in on Twitter. Who? Danny Higgins. Danny. He says- Oh, I remember that guy...
34:58
Danny Higgins, who, uh, who, uh, is acting as the voice of f- football God here, he says, "Can't help it when the other team plays poorly, especially after you've emptied the bench. If you want kindness, wrong sport.
35:09
Lol." Quote Jimmy Johnson, as Miami head coach, "I can only coach one team. I wanted them to play as well as they possibly could play. We only know one way to play the game, and that's with intensity," unquote. Danny.
35:20
Danny. [laughs] It's a montage of me saying Danny. Well done, fellas. Well done. That's great. Hey, that's your former, uh, that's your former s- starting quarterback for the Copenhagen Towers? That's right.
35:34
I don't think I'm getting his name, uh, the team name right. Spoken like a Gen Z-er or whatever he is. Bobdimus Prime, "It just dawned on me. Did Crack Man say yesterday that his buddy takes betting advice from Barstool?
35:45
Sir, would you like this Porsche or that unicycle and red ball nose? Really? The unicycle? That man needs an intervention." Yeah, I, I thought he, I saw him throw that in. Uh, Evan Klein, "My wife's birthday is on 9/11.
35:56
Talk about a buzzkill." Ashed. Yeah. I'm sure that comes up, uh, as the thing now. Chris Heath, "3% of my survivor pool is eliminated so far. What about Circas? And I hope we get some million strategy from Fez.
36:09
My proxy's deadline is 11:00 PM Friday, 6:00 PM week one."
36:13
Um, we don't know the Circa numbers yet because they don't come out till after the deadline, so we have no idea how many people got knocked out of survivor with these two games.
36:24
I would assume it's not that much, but who knows? Um, the real interest will be how many people failed to submit. Well, well, I'd agree with you except for they're doing that, that buy-back thing, right?
36:35
They're doing the buy-back thing, so a lot of people, you're right, a lot of people could have just gone- Yeah... ahead and gave it a shot knowing that they could buy back.
36:42
Impossible for us to guess the number of- Nope... of entries that would've done that, but yeah. Grant, betting X factors. Miami running it up. Do teams start to pump their Heisman hopeful starts in games like this?
36:52
Seems like end of year they flash up nomination stats to compare. Yeah, but they did take out Malachi, Tony, and, and Mensah, Darian Mensah at some point too, right? They don't think they'd play the fourth quarter.
37:02
But yes, I mean, w- those stats tend to wash, right? They tend to... We, we don't tend to, uh, question them in the wash, I should say, at the end of the year. Oh, you got all that against Florida A&M?
37:13
That kind of thing. Tony Hernandez, "Gentlemen, thanks for reminding us of the 25th," he says, "anniversary of 9/11." I, I, it's a weird word to use for this. "Please remember all who perished on that fateful day.
37:23
I want to extend my sincere thoughts and prayers to the 343 firefighters who went in while all were trying to get out. May they never be forgotten." And well- Mm... well said, Tony, and he's so right about- Amen...
37:35
I know Tony is a f- I believe Tony said he was a former firefighter, I believe, the other day.
37:39
Um, it really was one of the common things that was stated afterwards, which is while everybody was running away, those guys were running in. And you will never...
37:49
Mere mortals like ourselves will never be able to comprehend that kind of heroism. They're just doing their job, as they would say, but it was just a, an unbelievable, so many
37:58
unbelievable stories from the biggest tragedy this country has ever, has ever seen. Certainly in our lifetime. Uh, okay, no artful way to segue, but it is week one in the National Football League. Two games behind us.
38:10
Full Sunday slate besides the Monday-nighter. Only one Monday night game this week, this time, right? Boo. We used, we used to have double headers. Boo. Apparently not anymore. Not this week anyway.
38:19
Um, okay, let's do these one by one, shall we? Wait, are th- were we not doing that for the whole season? What? I, me and you have not talked about this really, the Monday night thing.
38:28
I liked, I liked the one-hour staggered start one too. I did. I, I enjoyed them both. And I feel like, I feel like they're not gonna do that anymore. Well, what, why? What's the reason for that?
38:37
Well, remember, remember they were doing it where they did it that way, and then they did the- Mm-hmm... separate them by, like, a full three and a half hours or whatever? Yeah.
38:45
I liked the, I liked the, uh, one starting halfway through though. You got, like, halftime and then you got the other game starting. Oh, no, I understand. I'm just talking about them in general.
38:52
Uh, they said the NFL got rid of Monday night football double headers because the league realized the overlapping or back-to-back game format forced fans to choose between competing match-ups rather than enjoying a single showcase.
39:03
What are you talking about? We have to choose between match-ups on Sundays.
39:06
I mean, it also sound like, it sounds like a smart business strategy, but, like, why would you, why would you give it to us in the first place then?
39:13
NFL Executive VP of Media Distribution, Hans Schroeder, admitted that the league, quote, "Collectively struggled and realized fans felt like they were conflicted to choose between those games."
39:25
I don't- I guess, I guess they feel Monday night is more sacred than Sunday day in that respect. Yeah, I guess. I guess. All right, let's start with the early window. Tampa Bay at Cincinnati.
39:35
Bengals favored by three and a half. Total 50 and a half. Any play? I do. Uh, two improved defenses I think coming into this game. No Mike Evans on the Buccaneers side. I am on the under with Mr. Drew Dincic here.
39:47
51 and a half is where I played it at. Honestly, week one, I think from what we've seen so far, Gil, I think, I think unders would be the...
39:55
If you're asking me totals this week, it's under or pass I think on every single game from what we've seen the past couple nights at least. Uh, I have no play. No play whatsoever. I want no part of this game.
40:05
That one in Cincinnati, again, Bengals favored by three and a half. No millions play for you either? Uh, no. No millions play, no survivor play. Yeah. Nothing. From a side, I've got no interest in this. This is- No...
40:15
one of my, w- with your, the classic Megapod questions, w- one of the sides I have no- No interest in playing... interest in whatsoever. I do have a millions play on this one. Saints are at the Lions.
40:25
Lions favored by a touchdown. I am not in the Tyler Shuck camp. Really inaccurate downfield. I feel like the Lions can cover this game.
40:34
Lions going from the best point differential of any last place team ever in the National Football League. Actually, I think it was the first since, like, 2003, so I shouldn't say- Hm... ever.
40:45
I think there wasn't another team this century that, that had that distinction, uh, to a really easy schedule this year, and it starts with this one. I think the Lions cover, and I got it in millions. 50 is the total.
40:56
Any play for you? I got nothing here. This is... Man, side and total will be a pass for me. Again, total feels a little high. I think it would lean under. I, I'm with you on Tyler Shuck.
41:07
He's gonna continue to have to show me more for me to really buy into the Saints, uh, the Saints team, Gil. But, yeah, just one, one note.
41:13
Just interesting to me that this, this was seven and a half, but settled in at seven pretty quick. We've just been stuck on this. Stuck on seven. Flats that really has not moved here in the past couple weeks.
41:24
I feel like I'm seeing the ball well after two games, Kelly. Hey, good start. I'm taking the Lions minus seven. Good start, man. All right, now here we've, we've gotten a lot of different opinions on this. Mostly Jets
41:32
love. I mean, it's a- And we did have a, we did have some Titans love from Zach yesterday. Mm-hmm. Titans are favored by one and a half at home against the Jetropolitans.
41:39
Yeah, I know, uh, I know Dave and Jensen were talking. A- it's actually funny for how, how bad of a, a game this is how much talk it's gotten, right? Yes. I, not even just on our show. Right.
41:47
But other shows I've heard a bunch of it too. I know Dave and Jensen were split on this one.
41:51
I think, I, I think what you saw out of the pre-season with these teams, and you gotta be careful with how much you take away from the pre-season, but I will not get that game out of my mind where the Titans started everybody against the backups on Seattle, going in.
42:04
Seattle just destroyed them. I'm not gonna be able to get that out of my mind, and Chino Smith actually looked pretty [laughs] good in the pre-season. So I do like the Jets here.
42:11
It will be a millions play for me, Gil, on the Jets side. I love it as a teaser leg. Hm. Love it as a teaser leg. I agree with you there. Had, uh, my teaser leg on the Megapod was, uh, Jets and... What was my other?
42:25
Jags? Jets and... No. No, I didn't do Jets and Jags. Axons? Jets, Jets and Lions. I know it's not- Lions, okay... I know it's not a long play, but I, I did that. I paired it with the Lions. Ravens at Colts.
42:35
Ravens are favored by three and a half on the road here at Lucas Oil Stadium. I got nothing here on anything. Total's 48.
42:42
Yeah, I think this is, I think this is just gonna end up being a pass, uh, uh, by me, but man, Colts catching three and a half, week one at home. Like, this is not a bad team.
42:51
I, I, I'm, I'm struggling a little bit with this number. Yeah. But I don't think I'm gonna get there. Me too. I don't want no part of it. Also- It, it might be a millions play for it.
42:58
It, it could end up being a millions. If I, the, uh, like, you know, the fifth one we're always scrambling for. Yeah I haven't gone through all of them yet.
43:04
If, if, if I need one more, it might be the Colts My five millions plays became very clear when I made them. Very clear. Uh, and here's w- here's another one of them.
43:12
I, on, in millions, I have the Steelers minus three and a half against the Falcons. It's four and a half now on the Tua news. Did you hear what happened yesterday? Just, just crazy. Just crazy.
43:22
Uh, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered an oblique injury in practice yesterday. Uh, listed as a limited participant according to the team's official injury report.
43:31
Sources telling Ian Rapoport at NFL Network that Tagovailoa is considered day-to-day. Remember, Tua named the starter almost as a de facto starter.
43:42
Kevin Stefanski didn't want to start him if he had an alternative, 'cause he wasn't doing anything in training camp or in these preseason games. Steelers up to four and a half now. I- It's a millions play already...
43:52
K- Keith, this, this is where I'm at. Probably millions play for me. I mean, what, what's... I don't even know what you... What's better? A banged up...
43:58
If you're taking the Steelers' side, would you rather face a banged up Tua trying to play through this game, or a what? Cooper Rush, Jack Strand.
44:07
Like, it, man, this is not looking good for Atlanta, and that was terrible n- news yesterday. Let's sc- squeeze one more in here. Also, early- I think I'm back on Pittsburgh, though.
44:16
Like, but maybe survivor and definitely millions. Maybe survivor. I already have it in millions. Yeah, okay. Uh, Bears at Panthers. Bears three-point road favorites. I want no part of this game.
44:25
This was my answer to which game do you want no part of. The one over I'm slightly interested in, and lean to the Bears. I have not bet it, though. I think Bears team total over is probably a good look.
44:37
Haven't bet it, though. I've been s- I've been saying this for three weeks, and I haven't bet it. All right, we'll do more games later.
44:41
But first, Christopher Falica, the Bear, El Oso from Fox Sports, all his plays, college football and beyond. It's a numbers game at Vsain, V Sports Betting Network.
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