Transcript 0:00 [upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. So, I'm one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. 0:17 Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, of course, SiriusXM channel 189. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. What we got coming up? 0:28 You wanna know? Velika, Dr. Bob, and Fezzik. How about that? Bam. Bam. That for your Friday. Bam, bam. That's right. Fezzik's got a lot on his mind. He does. 0:38 A- a- and I'm back after, after being, uh, left out for a few weeks. I'm back on the essay text exchange, so I got the full Fezzik essay this morning. Oh, okay. Yeah. Read the entire thing. Yes, you are. 0:50 Uh, we get tweets via the book, Steve the Proxy. "As a native New Yorker, I remember everything about 9/11, where I was, how I found out. Similar to Paul Carr, TV all day, horrific day. 0:58 Oddly, I have clients appointments today at 9 and 11 today. I have clients flying in today. I'll ne- I'd never feel comfortable flying on 9/11," he says. I was in San Francisco. 1:09 I used to run to the Golden Gate Bridge every day. The chaos was such that my sister-in-law at the time called frantically begging me not to run to the Golden Gate Bridge 'cause we just had no idea what was happening. 1:23 Yeah. It's crazy, man. We didn't know if like every, you know, American- Mm-hmm... not monument, but like- No, we were-... you know, iconic place would be a target. 1:31 Yeah, we were talking about it t- uh, with Paul during the break. It's just the, in those hours, it's like everything was on high alert. You didn't know. You didn't know. 1:38 I, I j- I was in Spanish class in ninth grade, tenth grade, when- whatever it was. And all, all I know is a teacher, y- you know, it's... We were talking with Paul. 1:46 Early days, you don't have the same communication going on, right? But the like word, word had spread around the school. A teacher like refused to put on the television, like didn't think it was real. Really? 1:56 Like took way too long like for us- Yeah... finally to get it on TV. Uh, Tom Stefan, "I remember Bob Trumpy explaining Dan Pastorini would play despite a rib injury by wearing a flak jacket. 2:05 Earl Campbell probable with a hip pointer." [laughs] That's right. 2:09 Uh, Jim Shogren, "Quarterbacks that did not play at all in the preseason are now 3 and 16 against the spread in the first half of game one, uh, game ones recently, including Stafford last night. Cheers." 2:19 That was the, uh, Scott Seidenberger, uh, stat that we were g- that we were told about yesterday. I think that's a pretty good one. Yeah. 2:25 Uh, ladies and gentlemen, our next guest I am just told, 'cause I thought I knew everything about him, but I have just learned that he was once an X Games producer. You may know him better as The Bear. 2:34 It's Chris Velika from Fox Sports joining us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Which X Games? It was not San Francisco you said. 2:41 No, it was X Games, uh, San Diego during the summer, and then Crested Butte that, that winter. So it would've been, uh, summer of '98, I believe, and winter of '99. 2:54 Yeah, myself, I was, uh, Chris Fowler's personal researcher assistant, helped him write some stuff. 3:00 And we had, we had some, we had some fun in San Diego with, uh, with, with Rat Salt and Biker Sherlock and Fabiola Da Silva and c- a- all those events. Wow. 3:10 It was a great concert at, uh- I don't even know what he said... Florida put on by- I, I love this story. Yeah... a great concert put on. 3:16 I, I'm not sure if it was Rat Salt's house or a place he was renting, but Stabbing Westward put on a private concert there. It was great. It was so much fun. It was an awesome 10 days or however long I was out there. 3:28 I, I wedged- That's awesome... the San Francisco part in there just to, to remind folks, or just to, I don't know if I brought this up, I spent an entire day with Eminem at the San Francisco X Games. 3:37 And by sp- saying s- Really? Yeah, and by s- I didn't know this one either. [laughs] Oh, no, no. One of the X Games stories on this show. I had no idea. 3:43 And, and, and by saying spent the entire day, he may have said 10 words. Were you working? Yes, with Cameo. But it- Wow... but Eminem was hanging out with us on the Embarcadero during the X Games. 3:54 I mean, him saying 10 words I'm not shocked about, but- Yeah, no, he was like, he was like the, you know the one where Musburger had him- Right, right, right. [laughs]... 3:59 and they were, Brent had him in the st- in the thing, and he was just deer in headlights? That was kind of him the whole day. Oh, man. Uh, slight of build, that kid. Mm. Um, whatever happened to him, by the way? 4:07 Did he turn out okay? Uh, Chris Velika, uh, let's talk, first of all, before we even get to Ohio State, Texas, the rest of the slate- N- no, I'm, I'm g- no, you, you don't even... I'm gonna cut you off right now. 4:17 Well, you know where I'm going, right? Because you and Kelly, you and Kelly need to be put in your place. Whoa. You do understand- No. [laughs] Whoa... that Miami last night- No. [laughs]... 4:25 they emptied the bench, like- I know. I said it... in the a- in, in the entire second half. There were walk-ons and true freshmen playing i- in the entire fourth quarter. 4:35 Like, like th- it was, those kids deserve to play. I didn't say- They're like, a- and- Why, why are we calling passing plays, Chris? Why are we doing that? Because you've got backup... Th- those kids deserve to play. 4:47 Those quarterbacks don't need, deserve to just go in there and hand the ball off. You've got, I mean, w- w- the, the true freshman quarterback. You've got Nickel in there as well, who may need to play as well. Hm. 4:57 They, like, look, they've got a couple of injuries as well on defensive, uh, backfields. It was good to see those guys get in there. 5:03 But y- you d- if you're practicing hard, you deserve to go out and execute the playbook- Yeah... a- a- and not just go, go through the motions. You don't care about those F- F- FA, uh, those Florida- Fam U... 5:13 Florida A&M kids, do you, at all? By the way, it was- I do... 5:15 it was very strange on the, on the- Apparently, clearly the Fam U coach who called timeout with 14 seconds left in the game, uh, cared for some reason, wh- wh- which was interesting to, to do. 5:25 It was interesting that we had simultaneous screens where Miami had no compunction running up 856 yards and 42 first downs against, at Florida A&M. 5:33 And yeah, and then we had Sean McVay and Stetson Bennett, who apparently didn't need to say anything about it. [laughs] Right. Yeah. Just sort of just piddle off the field. 5:40 Like, it was just like, what am I watching on both of these? Anyway. Yeah. Um. I liked Fezz's take, by the way, in the text thread this morning. That, that there's a non-zero chance that that happened. 5:48 That the Rams just- I think it's-... didn't care in the end... they could say, "Yeah, sc- screw it. We're not gonna ruin the rest of our season. We're gonna go out." Because you're, you're, w- I think you, you said it. 5:58 When I came back from Australia After spending a month over there- Yes... I was done for like 10 days. So may- maybe the Rams just said, "Screw it. We're gonna go there. 6:08 Just whatever happens, happens, and we're gonna come back, but we're gonna be able to acclimate back to our body clock quicker than, than the Niners." 6:16 Now look, I don't know if I can get behind the Niners against some of the... against the Dolphins, or the Dolphins rather behind the Niners, or the Giants against the Rams. But yeah, I, 6:24 I feel, I feel good about the, uh, the, the Rams unders and the Stafford unders, and maybe the Rams could be one in four after five games. That wor- that worked out, worked out well last night. 6:33 Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm with you on the way back. Uh, like I said, never been to Australia, but Korea was... It took two weeks, two weeks to get back to the proper, uh, sleep pattern. Wow. 6:42 So we'll see how it goes for the, uh, for the Niners moving forward. I for- I forgot, I forgot Chris has that crazy... Yeah, what was it? One in four in the first five weeks, Chris? Yeah. Yeah. 6:51 I mean, the, the, the Rams will be one in four after their first five games. That bum future. La- last night was kind of a- Yeah, that's right. What was your number on that again? 14 to one. 7:02 You imagine, Rams being one in four. All right, n- ladies and gentlemen, Chris Fallica, never, never a prouder Miami alum. It's, uh, national championships- Oh, yeah. Real, real proud of my alma mater... 7:10 and we're running it up on Florida A&M. He's... Both are equal. He's proud about both of them. I wish he and Danny Higgins would work on their sportsmanship, you know? That's... I really wish they would. 7:17 That, that's really what it's about. But, but I- You and I are just better sports- We the only decent, classy people. We're gentlemen. We're just gentlemen. We're gentlemen. That's what we are. All right. 7:23 Ohio State [laughs] This is ridiculous. Ohio State and Texas, let's start there. What you got? I... Just play the money line I, I think with Texas. Just take, take 24-23 out of the equation or whatever it might be. 7:38 I kind of think back to a couple of years ago. Remember when Texas played Alabama in Austin? It was a really close game, and it was a controversial play in the end zone. 7:47 And then the following year, Texas went to Tuscaloosa and, and won relatively comfortably. I, I, I feels a lot like that game. 7:56 And I think the team last year that went to Columbus is nowhere near as good, certainly in the skill positions that, that, uh, Texas is this year with Coleman and a healthy Wingo. Arch now has a year under his belt. 8:10 And at Ohio State, I just can't get the vision of their tackles serving as turnstiles the final two games that they played last year against Indiana- Hmm... and Miami. 8:23 I, I, I just wonder if they'll be up to blocking and containing Biles and Simmons, and the, and the pressure that, uh, Will Muschamp's Texas defense is going to put against them. Uh, I think Texas is better. 8:35 I know Sark has struggled in these top 10 match-ups before, but, but I, I think Ohio State might have a few, uh, warts on the interior, and we'll see if their defense is up to snuff, uh, uh, against a, a Texas team that I think is pretty good. 8:48 I, I wonder macro if there is worth a play here to take both Texas and Ohio State to maybe miss the playoff at a nice plus price, and the loser you're holding a good number. 9:01 Or maybe if there's a situation where maybe you take the loser of this game. You wait, you just take the loser of this game to make the playoff. Like it's a weird way to look at it. 9:11 Uh, it just depended because th- there's gonna be probably a little bit of movement I would think in those markets, uh, after this game. 9:17 Did you make any, you know, obviously cousin of, of any talk with, uh, Arch Manning. Did you make any Heisman bets this year? Do you have any? Yeah, I bet, I bet, um, [lip smacks] C. J. 9:28 Carr and Darrian Mensah before the year started. Um, I, I believe I got, um, [lip smacks] Carr at 10 to one and Mensah at like 16 to one. 9:39 And then last week, early in that first game, uh, against Stanford, I did wind up finally biting the bullet and, uh, I bet [lip smacks] Malachi Tony, I think it was 28 to one. Yeah. 9:52 But I was able to bet him out before there was a big move, uh, ju- just, just because. But, uh, yeah, that, that, that's the only Heisman exposure that I have. 9:59 'Cause you do wonder if, if, you know, how much of the Mensah vote will be- Yeah... peeled away by Tony- Mm-hmm... being such a big part of it. Exactly. Um, okay. Then the Arch Manning thing, last thing on him is 10:11 w- you know, what's... I- if, if he has any kind of awesome season, which look, o- one, one believes he very well could be based on last, uh, end of last year's performance, obviously how he starts this year. 10:23 Um, if he does anything, don't you... Uh, do you believe that it is very likely that he becomes the short shot, all things being equal with everybody else given the hype of him as a player? 10:35 And then if so, [laughs] does... Is it a lock that he absolutely gets drafted? Is there any chance if he has a great season that he sticks around? I think there is a chance. 10:46 I mean, certainly a non-zero chance that, that he sticks around i- in college and has one more year. 10:51 I mean, remember that, that the Manning family is very aware, uh, uh, of, of the, the NFL and the way things go down in that league, and trying to put themselves in a be- a good position to, uh, succeed. 11:02 If you remember how, uh, both Peyton stayed in college to avoid going to the Jets. [laughs] Hmm. Um, uh- Eli. Eli, the way that situation was handled as well. Yeah. So I, I think there's certainly a chance. 11:14 But, um, and yes, I do think that if Arch has a big season and Texas in that league winds up going to the SEC Championship game and potentially winning it, uh, I do think ultimately that he will be the short shot. 11:27 But, but I, I just wonder and worry, uh, that they may not have that year just because the schedule is so difficult that a couple of losses are ultimately going to find them. All right. 11:36 So Texas on the money line in the marquee match up this weekend, Texas and Ohio State. Texas, uh, forget about laying the points. Just take them on the money line. 11:43 Four more college football plays from Chris Fallica, the Bear, on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. 11:50 [upbeat music][upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Hey, if you're serious about betting, you need EdgeBoost, the financial platform built specifically for players. 12:19 It's a Visa debit card with no usage fees, no more declined deposits, no waiting on bank transfers. EdgeBoost gives you real-time access to your funds 24/7/365. That's every night, every weekend, every holiday. 12:31 Use it across all your favorite sports books, prediction markets, DFS platforms. Optimized for licensed US gaming, land-based and online. 12:37 Earn up to 0.5% cash back on eligible deposits, and daily deposit limits up to $5 million per transaction. Uh, transactions, I should say. Or, uh, per transaction, actually. Singular. 12:49 New users, sign up with promo code VSiN, make a minimum $100 deposit into your EdgeBoost account, and EdgeBoost will match your deposit up to $100. It's a smarter way to manage your gaming bankroll. 13:00 Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code VSiN to get started today. There you go. That was a flawless read. People have no idea what just went on there. It's just two gentlemen doing things up here on the desk. 13:13 Two, two classy, don't run up the score gentlemen. [laughs] To what had happened. Chris Fallica, on the other hand, totally different story. Chris, back with us. 13:21 Uh, Chris from Fox Sports courtesy of Progressive Gas Lounge. You can follow him on Twitter @ChrisFallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A if you're scoring at home. 13:28 Chris, uh, where are you this week, and where are you headed next week with big news? 13:33 I am in Ann Arbor right now for Michigan, Oklahoma, and, uh, this is one of those games where every instinct within your body tells you that the only side you can play is Michigan. 13:46 I just don't know if I can ultimately get there. And next week we are headed to London. Uh, big game kickoff. Do a pregame show from London prior to, uh, Arizona State at Kansas will be played at Wembley. 13:58 Uh, so it should be a, a fun week. 13:59 Get over there on Wednesday and we'll do a couple of things around town, and then the most exciting thing is heading to, to Bournemouth to catch up with my good friend, uh, Jim Fravollo, who is one of the chief executive officers at, uh, Bournemouth. 14:12 Used to be with the Vegas Golden Knights. Yeah. Went to Miami. College friend. Go watch Liverpool, Bournemouth on Sunday, so that, that, that'll be the cherry on top. 14:20 I, well, I know, I know, I just made a, uh, a pun and a, and a play on words and I didn't even know it with the, uh, the Cherries, as Bournemouth are called. 14:26 But yeah, I am in Ann Arbor this week and, uh, I, I just don't know how you can expect Bryce Underwood to be better. I mean, maybe it's just a deal where they just run, run him 20-something times tomorrow. 14:39 Old school football, rely on his athleticism to make some plays until, uh, they ultimately can figure some things out on the offensive line, uh, a- and in the running game itself, because boy, they looked lost on offense last week. 14:52 How about Mississippi State and Minnesota? You have a play in this one. I like Mississippi State. I like Mario Taylor, their quarterback, uh, quite a bit. Um, I... 15:03 This is kind of a, uh, a fulcrum t- type game for both teams to... Maybe this gets one of those teams to seven or eight wins, uh, depending on the result here. 15:12 But, but, but I think Mississippi State is better than a lot of people are leaning on it to be. And 15:17 I, I know we've had this conversation before about trends and history and situations, but I, I like kinda really drilling down some things. I'm a researcher at heart. 15:27 Uh, p- I lo- I love looking and diving in at, at notes and stats and numbers. 15:32 Like if you back, uh, since 2018, Minnesota, they've had 10 toss-up type games at home where the spread has been within three points either way. They've lost eight of them outright. 15:45 Now, there'll be some people obviously that say, "Okay, that means they're due to win a, a toss-up type game," but maybe that means that there's something that, that P.J. 15:52 Fleck and that Minnesota staff and the team makeup, uh, that ultimately they just don't get over the hump and win these types of games. 15:58 So, uh, uh, I think Mississippi State, Mississippi State's gonna put up some points tomorrow. I do, I do like them. I... It's very interesting that you say that, also, researcher at heart. 16:06 There, there is nothing I enjoy more than deep diving on subjects like this. As, as Numbers Game listeners probably, uh, have gleaned, I'm with you on that kind of thing. Yep. 16:15 Uh, Temple is a massive home dog against Penn State. You're going with the Owls here plus the points. Yeah. 16:23 I, I think, I think that, uh, Keeler, I, I think he's going to have this team, uh, in a much better position this year from when he took over last year. Uh, they, they attempted to improve, uh, building culture. 16:35 And look, that was a dominant win that Penn State had last week, uh, against Marshall. Ab- absolutely ran roughshod, uh, i- in that game with, with a big win. But, uh, there's some 24 and a halfs out there. 16:46 Uh, I grabbed 24 and a half with Temple. Um, [tsking] 16:49 and it's not gonna be like a home game or anything for Temple, but, but, but I think, I think their running game, uh, will be, will be good enough at least early on to maybe get some possessions and maybe score a touchdown or two early on. 17:00 All right. Let's shift to some totals here. Um, let's go to- Yeah... let's go to- Rarity for me. Yeah. Well, that is true, right? You're not really much of a total bettor, right? No. 17:10 Uh, no, I'm not because a lot of these college games can, can get a little wonky at times. But I, I, I think this is the type of board it is in college this week. I didn't find a lot that I like. 17:20 There's so many, like, weird just blowout type match-ups and lines where, uh, I just can't really find a, a, a game or two that I like. Uh, so I did land on a couple of totals. 17:33 I thought about maybe laying, uh, the, the 10 with FIU, but I think under 47 and a half is a little bit of a safer play. Uh, FIU's defense did really well last week, uh, slowing down USF. We talked about that. 17:47 I liked FIU when they got the cover. Maybe could've won the game outright if they didn't turn the ball over as many times as they did. 17:53 But, but I don't know if Buffalo's gonna be able to generate, uh, much offense, uh, down in, uh, west- western, uh, unincorporated Kendall Dade County. [laughs] Yeah. 18:04 Uh, south of Palmetto, west of the Palmetto there, Kelly. Yeah. I know you're, you're loving the south Florida geography right now. But, uh, yeah, they survived against Albany last week, 120-117. 18:14 I don't think they're gonna m- manage much offensively, so I played under, under the 47 and a half there was, was, was what I had played. Um, 47's still fine. 18:22 And then Duke, Illinois under 51 and a half was the other side, the other total that I played as well. Duke's offense was completely one-dimensional, uh, last week. Shepherd is a hell of a back, but 18:35 I don't think you're gonna get much in the terms of passing game from Eagle, their quarterback. Um, you, you... Duke really struggled against a Tulane team to move the ball that is not going to be very good this year. 18:45 And then Illinois w- was another team where you looked up in that, that game against UAB, and that was a game for quite some time. 18:52 Um, they had a third of their offense basically on two long scoring plays, had just 330 yards, I believe it was, uh, i- in the game. This feels, uh, maybe like a 24-21, uh, type game, something in that area. 19:08 This was a, a, a game that maybe aggravated me more than any other game imaginable last year. 19:14 Uh, having Duke as a short favorite, uh, against Illinois, turned the ball over a million times, uh, deserved to win the game, and then Illinois, uh, well, wound up winning. 19:23 So, uh, l- maybe I'll get a little bit of revenge on an ugly low-scoring game this year. Uh, let me ask a mega pot-ish question on college football this weekend. Mm-hmm. 19:32 A game that you want no part of that you've heard others betting. Let's say t- let's, let's reduce it to the top 25 games. 19:42 Um, Oregon, Oklahoma State, uh, because I can make a case either way, as you can in a lot of games. 19:48 But I think there's a school of thought that it's gonna be an early 9:00 AM local body clock for Oregon, and they've struggled i- in those games. Remember, uh, last year at Northwestern, they really struggled early on. 20:00 Uh, but last week they really struggled early on, uh, in that game against Boise, and I was dead wrong i- in my assessment of that game. Uh, Boise had a great chance to win that game. 20:11 So maybe you would think Oregon would come out, uh, a- and, and with a little bit more focus and a little bit more fire, and now being, uh, used to their new offensive coordinator and play well. 20:21 A- and, and on the flip, you had Oklahoma State, who was just terrible, uh, last week losing to Tulsa. Uh, maybe they take a little bit of a leap week one to week two as well. 20:32 It, it, it seems like a lot of people are on Oregon expecting the Ducks to, uh, to, to step back up and, and win easily in Stillwater. Uh, I could make an argument either way. I, I don't wanna be... 20:44 I don't wanna be involved and then hate myself for, for, for, for playing this when I could easily have seen the other side happening. A couple tweets. 20:51 Edward Lefevre, "Don't worry Gil, Miami will get theirs November 7th." He's talking about the Notre Dame game on November 7th. [laughs] Can't wait for that game. Cannot wait for November 7th. 21:00 Uh, and then Hoops by Hoots, "I bet Bear's take would be quite different if Notre Dame did what Miami did, LOL." They was running up the score. What do you think? 21:08 Well, Notre Dame did t- Notre Dame did what Mia- well, Notre Dame actually kind of did try and do a little bit of what Miami did late in that fourth quarter, throwing a touchdown pa- look, I, I don't get N- I don't have an issue w- with, with Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman doing what they did, uh, late in that game against Wisconsin, 'cause clearly that stuff is gonna matter, uh, at the end o- at the end of the year. 21:27 Now, Miami against FAMU, th- I mean, the game, the statistics don't really matter. It's irrelevant. 21:32 Like, when I, when I do a lot of statistical deep dives, I narrow it down and I eliminate these bye games and the, and the FCS opponents 'cause, I mean, a lot of it is stat padding if you're in there the whole game. 21:43 But at least for i- in Miami's sake, Mayne saying Malachi Thornton didn't step foot on the field- You know what? I will-... in, in the second... I'll, I'll back off the running up the score thing. 21:51 If Kurt Signetti starts passing the football up 50 against Howard, I'll back off of it. [laughs] But somehow I don't believe that's gonna happen. Uh, Bobby Getty's next. Yeah, w- w- w- go. 22:01 "The Bear is the only person I didn't get to meet at Bet Bash that I've never met before. Can you tell him to stay for more than seven minutes next time? Love was i- when he's on the show though. 22:09 Most different sports talked about in ANG history." That is very true. And all team sports. I will. I will next year, and I'm gonna give you one more play. I'm gonna give you a soccer play tomorrow. Oh. 22:19 Uh, I know it's a little, a little pricey. I just looked at it and in looking at, uh, Paul when he came on. Liverpool, Fulham, uh, both teams to score. It's around minus 170, but, uh, Fulham scores goals. 22:32 Liverpool coming off of a Champions League match the other day, uh, against Athleti. Still a little uncertain in the back line. Uh, a little pricey, but Liverpool, Fulham, both teams to score. Okay. 22:42 And Kansas State if p- next... Or excuse me, Kansas and Arizona State next week in London, just for those in, in 10 seconds who are wondering- Yes... why those two teams, the short answer is? 22:52 Uh, Big 10, Big 12 rather, likes to take chances, and good op- good for them for putting their team, teams in a, uh, position to get good exposure. Okay. There you go. Chris Felica. Dr. Bob, coming up. 23:04 [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Most people think sports betting is about picking winners. Ungamble built on a different idea. 23:18 Match betting and arbitrage is a tool that teaches you how to use sports book bonuses and promotional offers to capture value, whether or not your side covers. And Ungamble backs it up. 23:27 If you don't turn a profit on your bankroll in eight weeks, they refund your membership. To learn more, start with the free guide at ungamble.com/vsin. That's ungamble.com/vsin and use promo code VSIN for 10% off. 23:37 Bet sharp, look square. Always with the tweets, everybody. Best listeners in the game. Chris Heath, "Senior year living with my hippie aunt who refused to have the TV or take the paper. 23:48 I had no idea why everyone was weeping at school." Oh, geez. "My friend approached and said, 'We don't have to be here.' So we ditched the house and watched the news all day." 23:57 Um, Nick, Real Nick, "I was working at the local NBC affiliate on 9/11. It was the only day in my 25 years there we didn't air one newscast nor any local programming. 24:06 We all sat in the control room staring at the coverage on one screen, an NBC raw feed of the chaos in their studio." Crazy. Yeah. It's just, it's... We all remember. 24:16 It's like, it's like I guess our parents' generation all remember where they were when Kennedy got assassinated, when the announcements from Walter Cronkite and others. Mm-hmm. This was, this was this on a 24:26 equal scale for the, for the next generation. Um- Yep... 3,000 Americans died. I, the, my closest... This is just me. My, my closest sort of-... connection to it was I, uh, have a friend, 24:40 Jeff, who wor- who worked in the World Trade Center. He was, he worked in the first building to get hit, second to fall. Remember, the first building- Mm-hmm... was the second to fall. 24:54 He said his, his, uh, he took three years to tell me the story. He just couldn't talk about it for three years. 25:00 Uh, but when he finally did tell me the story, and we were in Vegas on a trip when he told me the story, he said that, that it was like two hands grabbed the building, right? Obviously, it would hit above him. 25:12 Two hands grabbed the building and, like, shook it, you would imagine. Like, it was like a brr. Mm-hmm. Is, is, is how he internally, they felt the, the plane hit the building. 25:21 And he said the initial reaction from his boss was, "Everybody just chill." That was the initial reaction. Yeah. 25:28 And then he said shortly thereafter, he looked around, and everybody started moving and calmly walking to the staircase. Mm-hmm. To the, to the stairwell at the World Trade Center. 25:38 And he said it was pretty calm walking down, and he was about 50, 60 floors up. It was pretty calm walking down until you got down to the, the very bottom, like the last section. 25:51 And I'm getting chills telling you this story. Yeah, no, it's- Because the s- the story he tells is then, then the doors to the lobby opened, 25:59 and a New York City firefighter looked him and everybody else down there dead in the eye and said, "Run, run as fast as you can. Do not look back." So Jeff 26:12 ran as fast as he could, took that direction, and I actually have a still shot of him. There was, there, from CNN, there's shots of people running- Yeah, yep... for, running as fast as they can. Seen a lot of those, yep. 26:24 I actually have a still shot of my friend Jeff running from the World Trade Center. Wow. And he said that when he finally stopped running, the entire back of his body was covered in complete ash. 26:38 And so it was just, the, the, I'll never forget him. First of all, he couldn't, and he couldn't tell me that story- Yeah... for three years. 26:45 But that, that notion of the, of New York City firefighter just looking them dead in the eye. Mm-hmm. And you know those moments in life where someone is dead serious. Do not ask questions, just do what they say. 26:55 And, uh, that was, that was his, his story. And thank God he's still with us. Thank God. Chills, man. He was one of the lucky ones. Chills. That's, yeah, one of the lucky ones. Yeah. 27:01 And I, it, I mean, how many stories did you hear like that that day, right? It was- Well-... a lot of that, right? Well- It calm, everybody calm, walking down. 27:09 And yeah, hit the, hit the lobby and oh, boy Impossible to believe that it's 25 years since then. Yeah. Um, well, Kelly, another awkward transition back to week one of the NFL. NFL Sunday, yep. 27:19 But we gotta get through these. Uh, we have one more early game, I believe, that we didn't get to, which was the Browns and the Jaguars, where the Jaguars are eight-and-a-half point favorites. 27:28 I actually took the Browns in millions plus the points. Yeah, we're, we're a little oppo here. I don't know if I'm gonna be laying full points and millions with them, but Jags in a couple teasers for me. 27:37 I think it's a great look this week. Uh, against the Browns, I know you're a little higher on them. I'm, I'm very interested to see what, uh, Deshaun Watson is gonna be able to actually provide out there. 27:46 [smacks lips] Um, I just feel like the Browns roster is good beyond quarterback. If they get anything from quarterback, I don't think it's outlandish for them to cover tho- the, to cover that number. 27:57 Uh, Jacksonville also in the question of which of the big favorites is the most likely to lose outright, in my opinion. There's only three choices. The Jags would get the nod from me. 28:04 Bills at Texans, this is the marquee matchup of Sunday. Apologies to last night's game and the night before in terms of marquee matchups. But for as far as Sunday's concerned, Bills, Texans. 28:13 Bill's one-point road favorites, 44-and-a-half. I did not touch this any which way. Yeah. Millions, survivor, anything. I think this is kinda, 28:22 I mean, thinking back, yeah, it's probably easier to say, I guess, after last night's result, but this was always kinda game of the week for me. This is a huge game. Yeah. 28:29 I, and two teams I'm very interested to see what they look like early on in the season. Uh, Texans was a teaser leg for me. Texans with the Jags when it was at one and a half, teased up. 28:39 I've been staring at this total for a couple weeks, too. Haven't got, haven't got, haven't bet it yet, Gil, but man, this would still be a heavy lean to the under. Heavy lean to the under there. 28:48 Um, by the way, all the ones that I play in millions, I actually make bets on, too. So, uh, I'm on the Browns, as I mentioned earlier. I'm on the Steelers. Uh, next, this is, now we go to the late games, I believe. 28:58 Yes, Miami at the Raiders. So now this was, this is a survivor consideration, but ever since the Bowers, the Brock Bowers news, I don't know if I'm doing it. Sadly, I played it on the mega pod, minus three and a half. 29:10 I didn't make a bet here. This didn't end up being a millions play for me. I'm, I'm not touching this game anymore, survivor or anything. 29:16 And you, and look, you could sit there and rightfully, rightfully so say Brock Bowers, sh- one player, and not a quarterback, should not affect your decision to this level. 29:26 But man, week one with a questionable Raiders roster already that doesn't have that much firepower, Gil. Yeah, him not playing is enough for me to be like, "Yeah, I'm good. I'm, I'm gonna skip this Raiders play." 29:36 I don't wanna donk off a survivor entry on the Raiders. I just would, I would hate myself for doing so. Now, they could roll. They definitely could. Mm-hmm. But we, uh, we want no part of that. Packers at Vikings. 29:46 It's kind of a slept-on game in terms of, uh, marquee matchups. 29:49 Vikings are one-and-a-half point home favorites against the Packers in what is largely considered to be top to bottom the most contested division in all the NFL, the NFC North. Vikings favored by one and a half. 29:59 Kyler Murray's deb- uh, debut as the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. Yeah, Green Bay, one of these kinda banged-up injured teams heading into the season here. Uh, not gonna have Josh Jacobs, right? 30:11 This is, I, look, I think this line's about right. I've considered Minnesota a couple times, Gil, but haven't, haven't bet it. Um, man, doesn't feel like a ton of people have bet this game, uh, this week, right? 30:23 Do you f- you feel like we've gotten a lot of that? I feel like no one has gravitated toward it. I've never, I have not heard- Yeah... any Green Bay, that's for sure. I've heard a couple Minnesotas, but no Green Bay. 30:31 Washington Taco Holders at the Philadelphia Eagles. This is up to five and a half now in favor of Philly, whose defense is spectacular. Mm-hmm. Um, man, I'd love to sit here and tell you that, that Washington's- 30:44 A team to play on here, I just can't get there. I just can't. I think the Laremy Tunsil injury's huge. I don't know about the defense. 30:51 I think the linebacking corps is gonna be good, but I don't know about the secondary with Washington. Defensive line, we'll see. Um, 44 is the total. Any thoughts? Any bets? Nothing for me here. Nothing for me either. 31:04 I'll lean to the under. I'm just checking some of these lines. Four and a half to five and a half, widely available, so kinda that dead man's land, right? But the, over at DraftKings, six. Full six on the Eagles. Jeez. 31:16 So worth noting. But I, yeah, it's, uh... I'm not messing around with it. I, I'm interested to see what the Eagles look like early in the season here. 31:22 I, it, I, I've been more of a Jalen Hurts defender, I feel like, these past couple years. I think the loss of A.J. Brown's gonna be big for this offense, though. Defense is good. I like that. Would lean under the game. 31:32 I don't know if this offense, how they're gonna look early on. Cardinals at Chargers. This will be the most single popular survivor play. How much of a percentage in circa survivor? Who knows. 30%? 33%? 31:44 That's what Cleve TA had it estimated at. Chargers are eight-and-a-half point favorites, total's 47 and a half. Yeah, eight and a half here at Circa. Uh, they're, they're the only eight and a half that I see. 31:53 Nine, nine and a halfs, there's still a 10 out there at Caesars, I believe. 31:58 Um, I, I'll tell you G- Gil, big favorite to lose outright, I still think the Cardinals got enough offensive firepower that if the Chargers mess around, like, could happen. 32:08 I'm not, I know there's been a lot of people that grabbed those 10 and a halves. I wasn't one of them. I won't be betting it, but I won't be shocked. How many of your three survivors are gonna be on the Chargers? 32:17 I don't, I don't know if I'm gonna have any. Really? I might save them for, I think I'm saving them for next week. Weren't you the guy that just said you're gonna play chalky? 32:23 I, listen, I said that- Oh, with the Jags ones... I said that a whole two days ago- [laughs]... when we lived in a completely different world. We were- No, the, the Jags are the only thing that- It's really true... 32:30 Gil, y- seriously. Yeah. I've changed my mind on survivor every day. For real. Jags is the only thing that's remained consistent. I will be using a fair amount of Jags. 32:38 Sunday Night Football, Cowboys finally now a three-point favorite, as we thought it would get to, uh, at the Giants at MetLife. Total's 48. Yeah, I laid two and a half the Cowboys, uh, earlier. 32:49 Obviously two and a half is not three, and I don't think that I'd be playing it at three with the Tyler Smith injury for the Cowboys on the offensive line. There's really... 32:57 W- the Giants, like one, it's their one strength, right? Is the pass rush, right [laughs]? And now you got injured offensive lineman on Dallas. I don't know. 33:05 I think Dallas goes in there and it's not a problem for them, but I'm a little worried about that injury. By the way, NFL schedulers, schedulers, how many times have the Cowboys and Giants played on opening Sunday night? 33:16 It's incredible. It's in- I know... it's gotta be the most consistently- It's, it's-... used matchup. Yeah. Oh, it definitely is. For week one. I don't even think we need to research that. No. It definitely is. 33:25 I'm a little tired of it. Feel free to change it up, NFL. Yeah. And then, and then like we said, like, I, we, did we say this on air or off air? I don't need the greatest game ever- No, I don't... to open up week one. 33:35 Like, we're desperate for NFL football. And Monday night, to wrap it up, Monday Night Football, Broncos at Chiefs. Broncos, two and a half point road dogs. Favorites. You're, you're on the Broncos. 33:46 Favorite side of the week for me, Gil. All right. Bronco, Broncos plus three, I did lay 120 on them. So I ended up Seahawks, Rams, Brownies, Lions, Steelers, and Millions. I'm deciding. 33:57 One, one oh and one out of the chute. Can you catch me? Coming back with Dr. Bob next. 34:03 [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 34:18 Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Hey-o. Atop the world's largest sportsbook. Look at that thing. 34:28 People still signi- signing up for, uh, Millions and, uh, Survivor back there today. Yes, they are. Proxies in full effect. I know Wishnev has an appointment at 9:00 AM. I was gonna say, I j- Yeah... 34:37 I'm, I'm looking at one Todd Wishnev right now- Yep... casually stroll up to the counter. Yeah, he's, he's involved. He's involved. He's going to find his proxy. Uh, we do, we do have 9/11 stories from everybody. 34:46 I wanna get through everybody's. Here's a few. Jared Still, "I was stationed in Japan at Yokota Air Force Base. 34:52 Just finished a movie, had the Today Show on before bed, saw the second plane hit the second tower, was recalled into the squadron within an hour." Crazy story overnight about Yokota, uh, Air Force Base. 35:02 Actually, at some point in the middle of the night, all of the base phones got jammed. Turned out there was an erroneous report on Fox News that Yokota Air Force Base specifically had been [laughs] hit in an attack. 35:11 Every family member Stateside was apparently trying to call us at the same time. Oh, wow. Fog of war. Um, geez. 35:18 JB, Beds JB, uh, "On a plane ready for takeoff to Pittsburgh, they held us up, then eventually got us off the plane. 35:25 When I called Mom, she was in, she was in a panic mode, having heard a plane went down outside Pittsburgh in my flight time." I can, I can imagine that. Yeah. 35:34 Uh, and Stringfellow Hawk, "I was downtown, I was in downtown Detroit taking the civil service exam to join the Michigan State Police from 8:00 to 11:00 AM that morning. 35:40 I was halfway home wondering why the hip hop station wasn't playing any music when they said the building collapsed. Didn't realize what happened until I got home and saw the news." I mean, some of the more eer... 35:50 Thank, thank you all for sharing your stories, by the way. The, some of the more eerie ones are folks who were supposed to have taken those, those flights. Oh, yeah. 35:58 And then for whatever circumstance, they didn't get on the flight. Yep. They were late, whatever. You just- Yeah, e- everybody's got a connection to this day. Yeah. 36:05 And, uh, and I feel like everybody has one of those stories, too. Uh- You know someone. Yeah. Um, n- no one will ever forget. No one will ever forget. 36:14 Uh, okay, this is always a treat, because ladies and gentlemen, uh, it's his triumphant return. 36:20 He has retired from doing college football, he's retired from doing college basketball, but he cannot be stopped on the National Football League, which he told me himself he has been super into since getting back into it. 36:30 It's Dr. Bob. Mm. The great Dr. Bob Stoll, who joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @DrBobSports, drbobsports.com. Good morning, Bob. Happy football, sir. How you doing? 36:43 I have a story from 9/11. I had a girlfriend. W- we dated for a little bit, but she was a friend, uh, late, years later when this happened. 36:50 Uh, she, she's from Hawaii and her best friend is from Hawaii, and her best friend went to Boston for a wedding, I think it was Boston, and she said, "Hey, can you..." And she made her switch her flight. 37:01 Was it the Boston to LA flight that went down? To San Francisco. Oh. Boston to San Francisco, I believe. Boston to San Francisco. So my friend was in San Francisco. She said, "Hey." 37:10 Her friend was supposed to go Boston to LA and back to Hawaii, and she, and my friend was living in San Francisco. She said, "Hey, I'd love to see you. 37:17 Can you switch your flight to, to Boston to San Francisco so we could spend a couple days together before you go back home to Hawaii?" And her friend was on that plane Boston to San Francisco. Oh. 37:30 Oh, the exact- Talk about, I mean- The exact opposite of what I was just- And my friend-... talking about. Geez... yeah, and my friend was a, my friend was a therapist, so sh- but she still had such a hard time. 37:38 And when she went back to Hawaii for the mem- you know, to, for the memorial, and to, you know, face the family, 'cause they knew, and they, they'd been childhood friends. Oh. 37:47 They've known my, you know, my friend forever. And she made, she wanted somebody to go with her, and I had time off, 'cause it was, you know, and, and I forget when the memorial was, but I had a little bit of time off. 37:57 I said, "Yeah, I can do it." So I went with her, and it was, it was brutal. I mean, the, the uncomfortableness, the... Some people were cold to her. Some people were like, "It's not your fault. 38:07 You, we know you loved her." I mean, talk, talk about guilt. It was horrible. How could people be cold to her, though? It's just such a bad reaction. Yeah, exactly. I, I was disappointed. Most people were, were okay. 38:16 It was just such heartbreak. It was ugh. Oof, that story- Anyway... that story stopped me in my tracks a little bit. 38:21 Um, well, certainly, uh, none of us could, uh, as I said before, none of us could ever forget where we were, what happened. Um- Yeah... and let, let us hope nothing like that ever happens again, needless to say. 38:33 Uh, you are here obviously to talk about football as, uh, you know, one, one of the great parts of this country is sports, and football specifically at the top of that mountain. And we're all so grateful to, to have it. 38:45 You have loved diving back into the NFL, right? This has been joyous for you. Yeah, I mean, I, when I was working with Tanner the last 10 years, he handled most of the NFL. 38:55 And for a while we were doing, like, stuff together and adjustment stuff, but my role in the NFL has been the, the, the technical analysis stuff and the situational stuff, which has worked really well, and he worked on keeping the model up to date and doing player adjustments and stuff like that. 39:10 Uh, and it was a great tandem as, of course, if I w- you know, was getting ready to cut back to be, to spend more time with my family. 39:17 I didn't wanna leave T- Tanner hanging, so last year at Bet Bash I introduced some, a bunch of people, and he had worked, he's worked with those guys now. Yeah. 39:24 Um, so, so he, you know, with, with Rufus and, and Mike, and those guys, um, so great, and it just allowed me to kinda cut back, and I'm diving back into the NFL full on, not just the technical analysis, but doing the modeling, doing the matchup stuff, and it's been really fun. 39:39 It's been really great. I dug up some really interesting stuff. We talked about Kansas City- Yes... you know, and the, and the offense and passing ‑‑ I don't know if you wanna dive into that a little bit, but- 39:48 Well, we-... there's been some interesting- We, we can... We only have five minutes, and I know how thorough you are, so you tell me if you wanna just give the pick and your, and background. What do you say? 39:56 Well, yeah, I released three plays, but two of them are out of range now, so I'm gonna talk about, let's talk about one really quick and see how much time we have- Please... 40:03 to dive back into this Kansas City team, which I think is so interesting. So I released Cleveland and Jacksonville under 40 and a half. There's still some 40 and a half. It's a lot of 40. 40:12 It might go back to 40 and a half, so if you're, if you have a 40, maybe wait for the 40 and a half. Basically, a lot of this is Jacksonville being just overrated. 40:21 They, they, you know, they only outgame- last year they were 13 and 4. They only outgamed their opposition 5.2 to 5.0. 5.2 yards per play on offense is not very good for a team that was scoring 27.9 points per game. 40:34 They were plus 13 in turnover margin. They led the NFL in points off turnovers, et cetera, et cetera. 40:41 So while 27.9 points per game put them near the top of the league in scoring average, they were just 12th in expected points added and 12th in success rate. Trevor Lawrence only averaged 6.3 yards per pass play. 40:55 6.1 is about the average in the league, uh, and he averaged 6.3 for the third consecutive season. He didn't get any better and only completed 61% of his passes. 41:05 Uh, they were just better in the red zone a- you know, better in turnovers, just stuff like that. You, you know, red zone efficiency tends to regress from season to season. 41:14 Uh, so I just don't think they're gonna score nearly as many points, uh, as they did, as they did last year. Uh, Cleveland, I mean, I... They still look like the worst offense in the league. They should be better with, 41:27 with, uh, with, with, with, with Deshaun Watson, even though he's been terrible in the, in the seasons he's actually played. I think he's played 19 games with the Browns. 41:36 Uh, he's only averaged 4.8 yards per pass play in the 19 starts he's had with the Browns. Um, so I mean, better than what they had as a, as a trio of quarterbacks last season, and he should be better than that. 41:47 I expect him to be better than that, and I think he's about three points per game better than the quarterback situation last year. But that still makes them really bad offensively. 41:56 Obviously, they lose Myles Garrett on defense, but, you know, uh, Jared Verse is, you know, had very similar pressure rates as Garrett. 42:04 I'm not saying he's Myles Garrett, but, you know, they're obviously not gonna have as many sacks, but I think that he can still put pressure on the quarterback. The secondary's good. 42:11 So Cleveland still has a good defense. New defensive coordinator worries me a little bit, but I think Cleveland's defense is still better than average. 42:17 Their offense is still maybe the worst in the league, and Jacksonville is not gonna be nearly as good offensively as they were last year. 42:23 And they had a solid defense last year and should still be pretty solid, uh, this season, despite losing Devin Lloyd. 42:29 That was a big loss at linebacker, but Travis Hunter only played seven games, and now he's dedicated to being a corner. I think he's a, he could be an elite corner. So I just see not a lot of scoring here. 42:39 Even though the weather's gonna be probably pretty good and everything else, I still come up with, you know, around 38 total points, and I have an under situation that applies to this game, a week one under situation. 42:48 So I play the under for half a unit at 40 or higher, and I think the line could go back to 40 and a half, 'cause I don't think it's going to 39 and a half. So if you have 40, wait to see if it goes back to 40 and a half. 42:58 But under 40 or, or more is the play for half a unit. All right. And Bob says applies to a situation. He doesn't always tell us the situations. He keeps those close to the vest. Right. 43:07 But it's also a technical analysis play for him as well. Right. So it's some value and it's, and a pattern. Yeah. Okay. 43:13 Uh, I'll tell you, I'll tell you what here, Bob, uh, 'cause I know you have a lot to say about the Chiefs. The Chiefs don't play till Monday night. 43:18 Is there any way you can come on Monday again and actually do the deep dive on the Chiefs? Maybe that's the more appropriate time, so that we don't truncate it here. Yeah, if you wanna... 43:26 Yeah, if you wanna do a little quick segment on, uh, on, on Monday, we can do that. Let's do that. Talk about the one game. All right. That works. All right. Bron- Broncos and Chiefs Monday night. Bob, thank you so much. 43:34 Great to have you back. All right. Good to talk to you. The great Dr. Bob Stull, everybody, @drbobsports, @d-r-bobsports. Predictive modeling pioneer. He doesn't like that term. He says it makes him feel old. Legend. 43:48 That's what he prefers. Legend Bob Stull. But he hates that we keep bringing that up. [laughs] But we found it so amusing. It's a great, it's a great moment in Numbers Game history, [laughs] sorry. 43:55 Do you like that little, uh, that little spin move I did on him from Monday night? That was good. Yeah. That was good. Yeah. Also good tease 'cause I have no... 44:00 I, obviously I'm involved in this game, but I have no idea where he's going with that. Oh, let me, let me just tell you this. He has, I'll just, I'll, I'll promote it by, by saying this. 44:09 He will have an opinion that will either, will either be corroborated in glorious fashion as the year goes on- Mm-hmm... or he's going to have egg on his face. Oh, interesting. Yeah. Now, okay, now I'm real excited. 44:23 He's real- he's really steps out on a limb- Okay... about, about the Chiefs. So just let- I like it... let, let that be the tease. Uh, Bron- Broncos are my favorite side of the week. Okay. 44:33 I'm a little, I'm a little nervous, a little nervous after hearing that. I'm not gonna tip you. I know. I'm not gonna tip you either way. I know. Uh, so Bob, back on Monday. 44:39 By the way, guessing lines, the first guessing lines of the season on Monday. We'll also have Adam Burke, and then we'll also have Dr. Bob on the show. Greg, this week. Greg. Bur- Burke usually. Greg Peterson. 44:49 How many times have you told me that off air? [laughs] Maybe four times. Maybe four. Hey. Steve Fezzik, Fezzik Friday's next on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
