Search
Login
Sign Up
Sep 12, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 12, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 12, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:30
1×
Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Gay Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, live from Circa. It's a Numbers Game where sports betting lives. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. What's happening?
0:23
Not much, buddy. How you doing? I'm doing very well. Um, you know. Rocking out to some Billie Eilish? Uh, no. It was a, it was a, it was 24 hours of, uh, listening to Maze featuring Frankie Beverly as a tribute. Okay.
0:34
Uh, Matt Brown and I went to, uh, the, uh, the ATP Challenger tour here in Vegas. Oh, you guys did. Yes.
0:39
I didn't e- I didn't even think to follow up with either one of you about it because as soon as we left it here yesterday- Yeah... in fact, I was embarrassed when we were on air not knowing about the fires.
0:48
Oh my gosh, that was as bad of air quality in Las Vegas as I've ever seen. By afternoon it had kinda cleared up. Um- Yeah, it did, but yeah, later in the afternoon. Yeah.
0:56
It was, uh, you know, the players qualifying for the main tour and, uh, there was a little live betting clinic happening up in the stands. Nice. Nice. It was fantastic. On the show today, Zach Cohen joins us.
1:05
It's Zach and Crack Thursday. Zach Cohen joins us to talk, uh, National Football League and college football. He's got some plays. Uh, and then, uh, the Crack part of it is Bill Krackomberger.
1:13
Bill's a little under the weather today, so he was like, "Hey, do you mind if I do it from, from home?" And I was like, "Well, Bill, you know, y- if you're under the weather, you don't have to come at all."
1:23
You're allowed to take a week off. Yeah. You're allowed to take a week off because they're paying you- Despite how much we pay you. Despite how much we're paying you, you, you're allowed to take a week off.
1:30
And he was like, "No, no, no. No, no, no. I just wanna do a couple things." [laughs] And we're like, "Okay, you can come on." Uh, and then UFC 306 with Jordan Sherwood, nice card. Yeah. Uh- At the Sphere.
1:39
At the Sphere, that's right. Uh, featuring, uh, Sean Sugar O'Mal- or Sugar Sean O'Malley I should say, who's a slight favorite. Mm-hmm. Slight favorite in his, uh, bantamweight main event, uh, match against, um, Rob
1:52
Font. So we'll get into that, plus other bouts as well there. Um, World Series exact as, you know, a little less crack, a little more of you and me, so we'll do some World Series exacts- Mm-hmm... a little later on.
2:02
I wanna start, of course, with Thursday Night Football, the Dolphins and the Bills. Um, when we did this on Monday, I guessed, you know, guesses go, I guessed that the Dolphins would be four-point favorites.
2:14
I had them above a three-point favorite. You told me it was a one-point favorite. Mm-hmm. And I'm like, "Okay, maybe you don't like my four, but at least three. Why is it less than three?"
2:24
It has come my way, but not quite to the three. Uh, Dolphins minus two and a half in their Thursday night tilt tonight against the, uh, division rival Buffalo Bills. Both teams one and O.
2:34
Both teams one and O after comebacks, the Bills coming back from a, uh, 17 to three deficit against the Arizona Cardinals, and the Dolphins in a very quick span, a 14-point swing if you will, as the Jaguars were headed into the end zone, a fumble, and then the very next play, uh, it was two out of Tyreek for 80.
2:54
I still don't know how Tyreek got around the corner on that play. And that changed- That's incredible. Gosh... that changed that game around. Yeah.
2:59
Uh, Jason Sanders missed a 42-yarder way wide, and then he eventually kicked the game-winner for the Dolphins, uh, as they came back to beat the Jaguars. So two one and O teams in the AFC East.
3:08
Obviously, the Jets are O and one. The Patriots also one [laughs] and O in the, uh, in the AFC East.
3:14
So, uh, tonight, I mean, the main things I think you have to sort of keep in mind, last year, by the way, if you wanted to know, well, what happened, Bills, if you, just as a reminder, Bills beat the Dolphins both times last year, 48 to 20, 21 to 14.
3:26
Josh Allen, in all of his 13 career games against the Dolphins, you know what he's done in all 13 games? Scored a touchdown? Wanna shout out Sean Korner over at Action for this. Uh, two touchdowns in all 13.
3:39
At least two touchdowns in all 13 of his games against the Dolphins in his career. Yeah, if you wanna get trendy, it works both ways with these cornerbacks, right? Josh Allen's had a lot of success- Yeah...
3:49
against the Dolphins. Tua not so much against the Bills. Uh, Tyreek, speaking of that, about Tua, Tyreek Hill, uh, his receiving lines in his five games as a Dolphin against the Bills, seven for 69, no touchdowns.
4:03
Seven for 82 and one touchdown. Three for 58, no touchdowns. Uh, he did have a nine for 69 and one touchdown, and then two for 33 and no touchdowns.
4:13
So at no point did he have more than 82 yards receiving in any of these games against the Buffalo Bills. So that's something to keep in mind if you believe in, um, these kinds of trends.
4:24
And I will say that, uh, you know, again, Mostert ruled out- Mm-hmm... for tonight's game. A-Chain expected to be a game time decision. I think he's a go, but we'll see. I...
4:33
Yeah, game time decision, I think you're right. Yeah. I think, I think at this time yesterday it was looking a little bit more doubtful.
4:39
I think he showed a little bit more in practice yesterday than people were expecting. Um, so yeah, those two to look out for on the Dolphins side for sure. Jo- uh, the Bills, uh, have injuries of their own.
4:49
Tyron Johnson, the cornerback, uh, one of their starting cornerbacks will be out for the game. Dwayne Smoot, one of their pass rushers, uh, out for the game as well, so injuries early on both sides.
4:57
Uh, we could see a little Jeff Wilson, maybe some Jalen Wright, the rook, at running back, uh, for the Dolphins tonight if in fact A-Chain is limited in any way. Mostert, again, as I said, already out.
5:07
Um, I think what all that lets me think from a Dolphins perspective is, by the way, the weather has been an issue. Folks are like, "Well, is it gonna rain?" It is a, it is a small chance.
5:16
There's about a 20% chance of rain around kickoff.
5:19
It's supposed to taper off, so rain shouldn't be, at least as you look at the forecast, you know how forecasts go, at least as you look at it right now, shouldn't be a huge deal.
5:27
And the wind is only in single digits in terms of miles per hour, so the wind should not be an issue. So I, I put that all, that, I put all of that in the wash. Pardon me. Yeah. Normal South Florida day. You're t- Yes...
5:36
you're telling me it might rain late afternoon, early evening- That's exactly right... in South Florida? No way. That's exactly right.
5:41
Um, and so I, I do think, you know, probably, uh, if you, if you're leaning one way or the other on Tua props, the over sounds like it to me.
5:50
Uh, because if anything, a slick field, this is the, this is the other thing I'm, I'm hearing.
5:53
Oh, a slick field, that'll hurt the, the passing game of the Dolphins and help the, the running game or Josh Allen on, on his feet. I don't know, man.
6:01
When it, when it's slick on the field and you got Tyreek out there and Jaylen Waddle, um, I don't know. I- I- the offensive player knows where he's going, the defense doesn't.
6:08
Yeah, you get hips turning on the quarterbacks, yeah, and they can easily be stumbling around. We- we'll- look, think about what we saw in Brazil last week- Yeah... with the field conditions.
6:15
Given the running back picture, I, I would lean Tua over props. Anyway, I like the Dolphins here tonight. I can't put it in as a Circa Millions play because- Yeah, yeah...
6:21
I wanna wait till, uh, Saturday to do so for, uh, the most perfect information I can have for the rest of the card. But, uh, Dolphins lean for me as, as long as it's under three, and that's where it is right now.
6:32
Dolphins minus two and a half. I wanna say this. We had Cleve TA on yesterday. Mm-hmm. And I was already lamenting how many favorites I like this week, and this is awful in any week to only like favorites.
6:43
But in week two, he didn't get a chance to say this on the show yesterday, but week two is the worst time- [laughs]... historically to like favorites because you're basically playing into an overreaction kind of. Yeah.
6:55
At least it feels that way. Uh, Cleve, um, wanted to, wanted to mention this.
6:59
Last 10 years in week two in the National Football League, favorites cover just 42.9% of the time, by far the worst of any week in the first month of the season. The other weeks, by the way, 46.5% in aggregate.
7:16
So again, week two covers only... Uh, excuse me, favorites only cover 42.9% of the time. That explains why the overreactions in week two are so severe.
7:24
And if you wanna do a little more data mining, Kelly, but if you isolate just favorites under a touchdown, like these Dolphins tonight, those favorites under a touchdown only cover 37% of the time. Wow.
7:37
The lowest of any week of the season. Uh, 33% the last five years, for what it's worth. [laughs] So you could keep, like, sort of- Yeah, yeah...
7:46
narrowing this down and it gets uglier and uglier for favorites in week two. Yeah, this, uh, yeah, there's a lot of favorites, uh, uh, that'll be on watch this week. I'm with you.
7:54
I'm kinda, I kinda lean, it feels like, towards every favorite. I, I do lean Buffalo in this one, I guess, tonight. I, I think if you are looking for a teaser partner, it's not a bad one- Oh, that's a good one...
8:04
with it up at two and a half. Yeah. Um, I don't think that's a bad way to approach it. I do think, I was gonna ask you, w- with these two teams, I think there's a lot that we learned about a lot of teams in week one.
8:14
Do you feel like you took anything away from either of these two teams from week one? No, I sort of feel about them as I did before, which is I'm down on Buffalo compared to most.
8:23
Uh, they had to come back from a 17 to three. I know people are, like, all focused on the comeback. Yeah. You're still down 17 to three- Yep... against the Cardinals, and the Cardinals had the ball on their racket.
8:31
People tend to forget- Yep... this little point. The Cardinals could have won that game. They had the ball on the last drive. So it wasn't like the Bills won this going away. Cardinals covered, after all.
8:40
And that was a weird drive. Marvin Harrison Jr. was wide open in the end zone. Kyler just didn't see him. That's the only reason the Bills perhaps come away with the win. Should be five and oh in millions.
8:50
And then the, and I'll just counter what I'm saying, because I said the Dolphins minus four when I guessed this, but I'll counter my point, which is about the Dolphins, which is I've said famously about them and the Cowboys, they're bullies, right?
9:00
Yeah, yeah. They tend to beat up on the teams that are clearly worse than them talent-wise, but when someone their own size picks on them, not so big. Yeah, I, I'm with you.
9:08
I think if anything, week one, it just kinda seemed to confirm what, what my thoughts were about both of these teams like you're talking about.
9:14
I think Miami, seeing them struggle with Jacksonville a little bit, not that big of a surprise based off of what we saw them do last year against bad opponents and against good opponents.
9:22
I think the one big thing with Buffalo, um, is just really seeing how that offense is planning on operating, right? They have a good, they have a good offensive line. They trust that running game.
9:33
I think for everybody that thinks that Buffalo is this big explosive team, that's true, and we saw that kind of in the comeback, right?
9:39
But they love to be able to take this slow, run the ball, work the clock, keep that de- uh, keep that off- other offense on the other, other sideline.
9:48
So I think that's kind of an interesting thing to monitor with Buffalo, and we all kind of suspected it heading into the season. It really did play out week one against Arizona.
9:56
So I think that's gonna be interesting to watch tonight. That's why you've seen this total come down, in my opinion, and get open 51 and a half. We're down to 48 and a half. A couple 48s on the board even.
10:05
48 right here at Circa. Um, so something interesting to monitor. That's where, that's where I think Buffalo and a teaser could make sense, 'cause that scoring is expected to be a little bit lower.
10:13
Have you become acclimated to the NFL, uh, sort of the rhythm, the meter of the, of the schedule, where it's like, "Oh, it's Thursday Night Football tonight"? I have not. Like, it kinda surprised- No... me already.
10:21
Yeah, yeah, no, I hear you. [laughs] I'm like, "Oh, that's right, Thursday Night Football." Um, by the way, Halftimes with Wishnev probably not gonna start tonight.
10:28
He was flying back to, uh, to Pittsburgh, so they will start next week, appro- for those who are wondering about Halftimes with Todd Wishnev. What are you doing, just Monday and Thursday, not Sunday night?
10:36
Monday and Thursdays- Okay... Twitter spaces, yeah. We're hoping to do that, but we, you know, with Todd, you never know if we can work it out. Who's setting this up? That would be me. Oh, man. Technological whiz.
10:47
Can we get a, can we get a show just of that? [laughs] Like, can, can I send, like, Wyatt Tomchek out with a cell phone? Yeah. Oh, by the way- [laughs]...
10:54
after the show today also, just speaking about football, uh, if you don't get your football fix here, uh, we are recording, oh, the week two Megapod today. Of course, Todd Wishnev, Will Hill, and myself.
11:04
Todd and Will, obviously, the regulars on the Megapod. That's on the Beating the Book podcast feed. Today's guest, last week was Steve Fezzik. Today, Joe Peta. Ooh, there we go.
11:14
Joe Peta, Wall Street veteran who, uh, wrote the books Trading Bases, also wrote the 2019 Masters Tour Guide, but, uh, has, uh, flirted with some good results in these contests.
11:23
He's obsessed with Survivor, obsessed with Millions. Um, so he's on the show today. Joe Peta [laughs] gonna meet Todd for the first time. Oh, my God. So that's always fun. I didn't even think about that, yeah.
11:33
[laughs] Uh, doesn't always go well. You know what I mean, Jeff Schwartz? [laughs] Point that out. Uh, we'll come back. Zach Cohen on the NFL and college football, that's on the other side.
11:43
And boy, oh, boy, we gotta get some of these results in baseball. This one particular result in baseball last night. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:50
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa. Un partido de numeros for those listening in Spanish.
12:06
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, on the desk.
12:11
Zach Cohen standing by to talk some, uh, football NFL, the Bills and Dolphins tonight, of course, Thursday Night Football, and college football as well. Uh, first I w- just wanted to mention, uh, baseball yesterday.
12:20
Yeah. Shohei in the Dodgers 10 to eight win over the Cubs, which was a come from ahead then win again kinda game, where they were up huge, seven-three, the Mets tied them, and then the, uh, Dodgers ended up winning it.
12:31
Shohei Ohtani, 47th homer, 48th stolen base. So 47, 48 on the quest for fiddy-fiddy. I missed the stolen base. So he got that later in the game? Uh, I don't know the sequence.
12:44
I believe, I believe it was after the home run. I believe- Yeah... I believe so, yes. Uh, so the Dodgers end up winning. The up, the up the really, you know, big- He gonna hit 50/50? He's gonna hit 50/50.
12:53
Oh, there's no question he's hitting 50/50. Right. I mean, I shouldn't say that 'cause once you get to 49, maybe you start to tighten up, I don't know. I, the, I c- I started thinking- Yeah...
12:59
about that stuff last night, yeah. But I don't know, these guys, these, these guys w- are not like you and I. Maybe they are.
13:03
Also, like, like if it's final games of the season, how much are you pushing Shohei Ohtani to run on the base paths, like just- Well, he- he'll get the stolen bases real quick so they'll have to worry about that.
13:13
Yeah, yeah. Okay. Yeah. Um, the other, the, the big outcome for us, at least for our Atlanta Braves, at least I have an Atlanta Braves- Mm-hmm... bet to miss the playoffs, uh, you and I have it.
13:22
We had a VSiN-wide contest. I don't know if anybody still talks about these. Yeah, I don't know either. [laughs] But, but because we could win it, we're gonna talk about it. Um, the contest was- Yeah...
13:31
every VSiN show had to put in a baseball futures bet, and you were allowed to change it if you didn't like it. So I was on vacation, Kelly goes ahead and says, uh, "Braves to win the division."
13:39
He didn't consult with me, so I came back and I'm like, "We're doing the opposite. We're switching it to Braves to miss the playoffs." It's eight to one. Braves lose yesterday, Mets win.
13:49
Mets have a one-game lead, 16 games left for both of these two teams. Um, and the Mets won it in dramatic fashion.
13:57
This is, um, this- you gotta feel bad for this, for this guy on the Blue Jays, the, the, the, uh, the pitcher on the Blue Jays, um, who now is... This is two starts. We're talking about Bowden Francis.
14:10
Yeah, Bowden Francis. What a name. Bowden Francis, two starts now in his last four where he has taken a no-hitter into the ninth inning. It was against the Angels a few starts ago.
14:19
And, uh, Taylor Ward hits a lead-off solo jack against him to break up the no-hitter, um- Great hair... three starts ago. What's that? Great hair. Yeah. Taylor Ward. Oh, Taylor Ward? Yeah. Great hair?
14:29
Oh, wasn't, didn't know that. Yeah. Uh, and then last night, uh, the Blue Jays are, that was a three to, that was a three to nothing game, so the, the Blue Jays were able to, uh, hold on there.
14:36
But last night, Blue Jays up one to nothing against the Mets in the ninth. Francisco Lindor steps up, lead off Jimmy Jack to tie it up, and then the Mets just blow 'em out after that.
14:45
So two starts in four that this guy has taken a no-hitter, um, Bowden Francis, into the ninth inning. It reminds me of when I was a kid, there was a, uh, Blue Jays pitcher by the name of Dave Stieb.
14:57
Dave Stieb was one of these guys in an era when everybody, well, not everybody, but when the great pitchers did win 20 games 'cause they went all the time. Stieb had multiple seasons where he won like 17 and 18.
15:06
And he had two no-hitters. The last two starts of the season in 1988, he went eight and two-thirds consecutively with a no-hitter, and he got broken up on the last out of both of them. That's awful. That's just awful.
15:19
And he finally threw a no-hitter two years later, but it was, it was this m- amazing moment. But this is who, uh, it was this, this kid reminds me of, Bowden Francis. Who was it? Dylan Cease, right?
15:27
Did- didn't he go through that too? Didn't he have one broke, um- Some near ones, and then he finally got one. Yeah, yeah, and then finally got one, yeah.
15:32
Well, Mets take a one-game lead over the Braves for our purposes for the third and final, uh, wild card spot, the- We're coming for that prize. We don't know what it is- We're, yes... where, where it's at.
15:41
We were not told what the- [laughs]... what the prize was. But we're, we're finding you, Dan Miller. [laughs] Money line Dan Miller, what are you giving us if we win?
15:49
Um, okay, let's talk some, uh, college football and some pro football. Zach Cohen joins us now. Um, of course, the glue, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
15:58
Betting On X is where you can find him on Twitter. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, Zach? Not much. How you guys doing? Doing very well.
16:06
Uh, let's start with Thursday Night Football. That seems like the appropriate place to start. You like the Dolphins. You and me, we're the only two apparently. Yeah.
16:14
I jumped on the Dolphins minus 120 on the money line on Tuesday. I've been writing up the Thursday Night Football game every Tuesday morning, so I've been getting early lines on that.
16:22
If you do wanna check the website, there's going to be some stuff up there that you probably won't be able to get later in the week. Uh, one of those was Jeff Wilson, anytime touchdown score plus 240.
16:31
That's now down to about even money.
16:32
You know, I had a, a pretty good feeling that we wouldn't see at least one of those two Dolphins backs with it being a short week, and I don't think there's gonna be any, you know, hurt, harm done to the running game in Miami.
16:42
I think that obviously with, you know, the 49ers offensive system now being in Miami, I think that you can trust pretty much any running back that you throw back there.
16:50
Jeff Wilson's a guy that has had a good nose for the end zone, you know, his entire career, so I think that he'll be fine in this game if he ends up being, you know, the workhorse, and I do think he'll find the end zone in this one.
16:59
By the way, that was a facetious joke on my part because obviously the line has come our way to the Dolphins, uh, if not to three, but at least- Yeah... from one to two and a half.
17:06
So Zach and I clearly aren't the only two that have the Dolphins, but in our little sphere of, of everybody being too close to the sun, I feel like you and I are the only people that have the Dolphins, and that the too cool for school crowd all has the Bills.
17:18
I don't feel like I've heard that much about the, uh- Either way... from people this week. Yeah, yeah. I think Drew, like, I don't even know if Drew's on the Bills. I know he said he was leaning that way.
17:26
Um, but yeah, I, I don't feel like I've heard that many people betting the Snapchat tonight. Well, I do. I do. Um- I do, I, I, I do like the minus two and a half. I'll throw that out there.
17:35
You know, if you can't get that money line, it's not out there anymore, so I understand that. So I do like minus two and a half on Miami.
17:41
I know that this has been a pretty lopsided head-to-head, you know, in favor of Buffalo over the last couple years, but I don't think that this Buffalo defense is the same as we've seen in recent years, and I don't think that the, you know, receiver group is going to be able to con- you know, create consistent separation against a good group of Dolphins corners.
17:56
So I think that, that, you know, that's gonna be a struggle on both, uh, sides of the ball. Is there anything else in week w- uh, week two in the NFL that you like, Zach? I have a slight lean on the Eagles.
18:07
Uh, i- it's a lot of points now, but I just thought that, you know, Cousins looked really bad in week one.
18:12
I know that that's something that- You know, you don't wanna overreact too much to one game, but it's a movement for a guy that had, you know, a torn Achilles in the off-season.
18:19
So I think that they're gonna have a really hard time against Philadelphia, who I really like this season. I know that they are coming off of that Brazil game, but had a few extra days, uh, to make up for it.
18:29
So I, I think that the Eagles are gonna win pretty easily. All right, what about college football? What'd you land on here? And I know you wrote this up at vsin.com as well. Yep.
18:38
Uh, my favorite play this week is Indiana minus three against UCLA.
18:41
That's another one where, you know, UCLA comes into this game with an extra week of rest because they have not played since facing Hawaii in that first game.
18:48
But they looked terrible in that game, and it was really what was expected after what we had heard in the off-season. I know a lot of people at this company, uh, myself included, very down on UCLA.
18:58
I thought that the running back situation was a nightmare.
19:00
You know, outside of Ethan Garbers, they rushed for under 20 yards amongst all their running backs against a really bad Hawaii defense, and I just don't think that that passing game is going to be able to get anything going.
19:10
Indiana, obviously not a good team in the past, but Cignetti is kind of like a poor man's Kalen DeBoer, that he has won everywhere that he has been. He brought over a ton of talented transfers to Bloomington.
19:21
Uh, the early results, obviously some bad competition, but Indiana's blown out both of their previous two opponents. Uh, last week it was Florida International.
19:29
Uh, and I just kinda think that this team is much better than UCLA, a much better coach. So I know that they're going on the road, but I don't really think that the Bruins are gonna have a home field advantage.
19:38
I, I don't think the three points is enough here. Okay. Oh, Big Ten game. Big Ten game. Thank, thank you, sir. Yeah, no problem. Appreciate that. Just wanna let, make sure you were on board.
19:45
By the way, speaking of that, we should probably mention, you know, I know you're joking 'cause you're reading some conference stuff. [laughs] Yeah, right, yeah, but there's actually news? Yeah. Yeah.
19:50
Uh, Mountain West, uh, announcing, or not the Mountain West announcing, but four schools announcing that they will depart the Mountain West to join the Pac-12.
19:58
Uh, the Pac-12 board of directors, uh, unanimously approving applications from Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, and Fresno State as the, uh, conference realignment continues, uh, in college football.
20:11
So there you go. Pac-12 lives. It's the Pac-6 now. Who are they turning down? I like the idea of them approving teams, right? [laughs] Does that mean they're turning down some schools? Like, uh... Tufts University.
20:21
Right? [laughs] Yeah, yeah, yeah. They're turning down Tufts. Yeah, not gonna work. [laughs] Uh, Zach, anything else college football? Yeah, I like, uh, former Pac-12 team Oregon against new Pac-6 team, uh, Oregon State.
20:31
It's a minus 16 and a half. Uh, I know that Oregon's looked pretty bad to start this season, but I don't think they look as bad as, you know, the numbers suggest.
20:38
I think that it's still a team that is, you know, moving up the field rather easily o- on offense.
20:42
I know that I had this kind of similar handicap last week with Boise State, but Boise State is a team that a lot of people expect to make the college football playoff. They're more talented than Oregon State.
20:52
So I do think that the Ducks are gonna win this game pretty easily. Uh, they've been really good as road favorites under Dan Lanning. Uh, also covered when they played against Oregon State last year.
21:01
That was when Oregon State was coached by Jonathan Smith, who I think is one of the top 10 coaches in all of college football.
21:06
It was also when Oregon State had a lot of, you know, Pac-12 talent that had not yet departed in the transfer portal. So I do think this is going to be a game that Oregon kinda gets back on track.
21:16
Uh, I, I think that the offense is going to be a little bit too much for Oregon State to keep up with, especially with, you know, their lack of a passing game.
21:22
And I do think that the Oregon defense is going to look a lot better this week. All right. Zach, you jumping back into tennis next week? Is that how this works for you? I've still been on tennis.
21:30
I have not looked at anything for today, but yeah, I've been, uh, I've been betting challengers. I've been betting, you know, these smaller tournaments in Guadalajara.
21:36
[laughs] I had Olivia Gadicke yesterday to, uh- Oh, did you? Really?... to cover against... I had her to cover against Collins- Oh, okay... and she won outright. But yeah. Yeah, she won.
21:43
Beat Danielle freaking Collins, uh, is a big dog.
21:46
Uh, I was just mentioning earlier that, uh, we were at the AT- ATP Challenger here in Las Vegas, and, um, there is nothing like being on site and having books, you know, having the number, and it is really a race- Yeah...
21:59
to get you where it is. But you can also- Sure. It's not only a race, you can also see what's happening in a way when you're watching it live. Um, and you get, obviously you get the, uh, the head start on them.
22:08
But they're pretty quick. They're pretty quick. Like, you have to be super quick, but it- In these days, yeah. Yeah, but it was awesome. There was a, uh, Learner Tien match out there, which was a, uh, a middling fest.
22:17
And then, uh, prior to that, uh, Denis Kudla was in action, so some players that we recognize from the main tour out here at the Challenger. Zach, thank you. Good luck with all, all your bets, man. No problem.
22:27
I was, I was wondering how they're gonna handle that heat even though they knew Fessy could do it. It was, it was more windy than it was heat- Yeah. Oh... than it was hot. Yeah, that was the problem was the wind.
22:36
Um- Smoke. All right, Zach, enjoy, man. Thank you. Zach Cohen, everybody. Thanks, guys. Our, uh, our senior editor at VSiN. @bettingonx again is where you can find him, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
22:46
UFC 306 with Jordan Sherwood. Gotta ask him about the Bears too. Next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
With the National Football League underway, there's never been a better time to become a VSiN Pro subscriber.
23:00
Make this football season your best ever with full VSiN Pro access to our daily best bets, betting splits, betting systems, and 24/7 video access.
23:07
Grab our football season special and get full VSiN Pro access from now through the Super Bowl for just 175 United States dollars.
23:15
Or start a monthly subscription for just $9.99 and see why VSiN Pro is your ticket to a winning season. Don't wait. Head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up and start betting smarter today. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
23:28
He joins us to talk UFC 306, but I gotta ask him about his beloved Chicago Bears and what he thinks about them after week one, and Kaleb Williams, 93 yards passing.
23:38
It's Jordan Sherwood, everybody, uh, courtesy of the [laughs] uh, Progressive guest line. Jordan, of course, co-host of the Unnamed MMA Podcast at ESPN Chicago, @woodonESPN1000 for those checking him out on Twitter.
23:50
What's happening, Jordan? Yeah, yeah, it wasn't a good performance [laughs] by, uh, Kaleb Williams and the offense.
23:56
And you know, I was there, Gil, and look, we were riding high as Bears fans, feeling pretty good about ourselves. Uh, and then it was the same old story.
24:03
Down 17-nothing at the half, not feeling great, but miraculously the defense, special teams pulled it out. Uh, hoping for some better things. I think, again, we gotta look back and say, "Hey, he's a rookie.
24:13
He's gonna make mistakes." Uh, not gonna find guys down the field, but a little bit disappointing.
24:18
We thought we were gonna have an offensive [laughs] juggernaut on our hands, uh, with the Bears and what we saw in pre-season. Maybe it'll take till, till week two to get them rolling.
24:24
I like how Jordan says this with his White Sox apparel on. [laughs] It's like, oh yeah- White Sox apparel... this sounds great. White Sox sign, yeah.
24:30
[laughs] It's like, how quickly will- how quickly will Bears fans go to, "Oh my God, he's terrible"? Already? Next week? They've b- they've already, they've already done it. Yeah. Yeah.
24:39
There's definitely a few fans that have already been calling into ESPN, uh, Chicago and, and having those claims because, look, there's high expectations, but you gotta take a step back and realize, th- the Bears fans have never had a quarterback, ever, that had any...
24:51
Like, Caleb Williams taking the snap on Sunday, he's automatically in the top five of Bears all-time quarterbacks just by taking the one snap. [laughs] Of course. Those are lofty expectations. Yes. Yeah.
25:02
[laughs] Sorry, Caleb. [laughs] All right, UFC 306, Jordan. Uh, UFC saluting Mexican fight heritage at Noche UFC 306 to be exact. And the, uh, the main event, Sugar Sean O'Malley against Merab Dvalishvili.
25:17
Uh, with Sugar Sean, he is a, uh, he's a minus 140 favorite now as I'm looking across the board. Obviously few cents either way. Uh, at one time considered maybe the best pound for pound. Um, how do you view this here?
25:31
Because obviously Dvalishvili's gonna try to put him in a straitjacket in this one. Yeah, yeah. Well, the first and foremost I think it's, it's important to look at and see what the opening lines were.
25:40
Merab Dvalishvili was the favorite, heavy favorite. You know, he was probably around that dollar 40 price when the fight was announced. Uh, money poured in on Sean O'Malley. It's the Sugar Show, he's a popular fighter.
25:52
I expect money to continue, uh, to trickle in o- on Sean O'Malley as we get closer to Saturday night. But I'll say this, it's a difficult matchup for Sean O'Malley to defend his championship.
26:01
Merab Dvalishvili, he's known as The Machine, and look, he sets takedown records when he's inside the octagon, just in constant pursuit and looking for the takedown. And he's gonna, you know, have to step through fire.
26:12
Sean O'Malley is a sniper. He is an outstanding striker. We saw that on display when he became the champion.
26:18
He knocked out Merab's buddy, his training partner, Aljamain Sterling, to win the championship, and many people believe that that's gonna be the same.
26:26
There's also concern about Merab 'cause he showcased a cut that he suffered a couple of weeks ago in training, but I'm not on that side.
26:33
I think Sean O'Malley has, has struggled with grapplers, and Merab's probably the best that he's ever seen, just in constant pursuit of takedowns.
26:43
And there's also concern about Sean O'Malley's, uh, cardio holding up for five rounds with the, the, the pace that Merab Dvalishvili has. So I was on Merab when he was the favorite at a dollar 20.
26:55
I'm certainly gonna be on, uh, Merab as, as he is, uh, now the, uh, the underdog in this fight. He's just gonna have to avoid that, that sniper, uh, O'Malley coming in.
27:05
A- and I think Dvalishvili can get his hand raised on Saturday night. Yeah, y- yeah, you are. You're gonna be on him as a dog if you were on him as a slight favorite for sure.
27:12
Uh, Sugar Sean O'Malley, 18 and 1, uh, lifetime, and Dvalishvili's 17 and four. Jordan going with the dog there. What about the- And no, no reason to rush a bet, right, Jordan? Like you're talking about.
27:22
I mean, this is gonna be- Yeah... all O'Malley coming in, uh, money coming in late, right? Yeah, absolutely.
27:28
O'Malley's gonna continue to flood in, so I would actually recommend waiting on Merab u- un- until as we get closer to fight night. And look, Sean O'Malley is talented.
27:36
I, I, I wouldn't be surprised if O'Malley sleeps him in the first round. That's how good Sean O'Malley is.
27:41
But you have to remember, O'Malley, e- even though he's got that knockout power, has really not been a knockout artist. He's a guy that's going three rounds to decision, going five rounds to decision.
27:50
Outside of the Aljamain Sterling knockout, he hasn't been really knocking out his opponents. You seen these, uh, these conspiracy theories that are going around in, uh, in UFC Twitter- No...
27:59
where it's like, uh, O'Malley, so this is, this is, again, this is Noche UFC 306, right?
28:04
He had a, a Mexican girlfriend they cheated on or something like that, so everybody's like, "There's no way he's gonna- they're gonna let him win," and this, you know, it's like that, that kind of thing.
28:12
Do you pay attention to any of that nonsense? Eh, no, not, not, not, not at all.
28:17
And I also am, am really, uh, steadfast on I understand it's UFC Noche, I understand it's Mexican Independence Day, but I, I don't think that there's gonna be that, that impact on the Mexican, that Lat- those Latin American fighters, uh, that are competing on Saturday night, like it would be if it was in Mexico City, like it would be or like for the Brazilian fighters when they go to Brazil.
28:36
Yeah. I, I, I've heard about the, the Noche setup at the Spear. Uh, it's gonna be a different atmosphere.
28:41
So I, I'm not of the bu- belief that fighters outside of, for pride fighting on UFC Noche are gonna be motivated by the crowd because I think it's gonna be a partisan crowd.
28:51
Okay, let's go to the co-main, women flyweight. Uh, Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso is a, you know, right around the same favorite price as O'Malley is in the main. She's right at minus 140.
29:03
We're showing minus 135, but as I'm looking right around minus 140.
29:07
Shevchenko, once, speaking of greatest pound for pound, um, I know Amanda Nunes existed, but Shevchenko was considered by some to be, uh, a great fighter and right in that class in terms of great pound for pound.
29:18
She's 36 now, though. How do you see this? Yeah, and that's, that's a little bit of a concern, slowing down at, at, at 36 years of age. And, and a lot of familiarity for these two ladies.
29:27
They've, uh, been in the octagon now for nine rounds against each other. One was a draw.
29:31
The other one, Valentina Shevchenko was winning handily, makes a mistake, and Grasso takes advantage and, and, and submits her and gets the win.
29:39
Um, look, u- until I see Valentina Shevchenko get dominated and lose and really fall off, I understand she was stopped in that first, uh, that first encounter, but, but was winning that fight, and, and arguably won the second fight when they drew.
29:54
So until she gets dominated and loses, I think at plus money, Valentina Shevchenko is, is someone you also have to take a look at.
30:03
It's no discredit to Alexa Grasso, she'll be the faster fighter, probably have a little bit of advantage on the feet in that regard, but I, I still like Valentina Shevchenko, uh, at, even at her age, and, and, and rumors about her If kind of thinking about her post-fight career, uh, being the dog, uh, until she loses.
30:21
So I'm, I, I, I'm... Dogs are barking on Saturday night in my, in my belief, remember Rob and also with Valentina Shevchenko. All right, well let's go to another dog, Brian Ortega. You wanna take him as well?
30:31
Yeah, I, I just feel like again, you know, Brian Ortega, the only times that he has lost have been to the dominating champions that we've seen in the featherweight, the division.
30:39
I think there's a little bit of a concern because these two guys were supposed to fight six weeks ago. Ortega couldn't make the 145 pound limit.
30:45
Uh, he tried to agree to a 155 pound limit, but then was pulled from the fight. But what do we know about Diego Lopez? You know, he has dominated guys that he's supposed to dominate.
30:53
He looked impressive six weeks ago against, uh, uh, you know, a, a taking a, a fight basically on three hours notice, uh, against Dan Ige, who was on his couch, but then chose to take the fight.
31:05
But, but how good is Diego Lopez? Uh, we, I don't think we know that 'cause he hasn't fought the upper echelon at 145. My only concern is how healthy is Brian Ortega, and he's already talked about moving up to 155.
31:17
So actually this is a fight that I'm not gonna recommend betting live. I think Diego Lopez could certainly go in there, he's well-rounded, talented enough to get Brian Ortega out of there.
31:24
But if it goes into the second round, that becomes a little bit of a dicey situation for me. So, uh, Brian Ortega has had miraculous comebacks before.
31:31
He's a great submission artist, so I almost would recommend waiting, uh, and then betting this fight live, uh, even if, uh, uh, Lopez is winning that first round and, and grabbing Ortega as a, as a bigger dog.
31:41
Okay, I like that. So Valishvili as a dog, Shevchenko as a dog, Ortega as a dog, but also a live betting recommendation on Brian Ortega against Diego Lopez. Uh, you are not averse to, uh, leaning to the favorite side.
31:53
We don't often go to the early prelims, but Raul Rosas Jr. is a massive, and I'm talking about a prohibitive, -850 favorite over, uh, Kilang Aori. You have a, uh, creative way to bet this, though.
32:06
Yeah, I mean, look, uh, you're not gonna lay $8, uh, on this. Even throw them into a parlay, forget it. But the UFC, there's a reason why this guy's opening up the, the card. Uh, he's, you know, 19 years of age.
32:17
Uh, he's already hinted that he wants to retire by 25.
32:20
Um, the, the UFC expects this guy to go out and get this fight card started off in a spectacular fashion, uh, and win this fight and win it pretty decisively and handily.
32:29
So I think Raul Rosas, uh, to win inside the distance and likely submit, uh, Kilang, I- i- is the route to take.
32:36
He's not gon- Rosas is not gonna wanna mess around on the feet, but he has the advantage utilizing the grapple and us- utilizing the takedowns and getting this fight to the ground.
32:44
So you, you jump that price down from $8 to $1.50 for him to win by sub. I think that's where you find the value in Rosas Jr. who's gonna, who will be motivated fighting, uh, to open up the card at the spear on UFC Noce.
32:57
All right, Valishvili, Shevchenko, Ortega, and then Rosas Jr., um, at -150 on the prop bet. All right, um, listen, uh, the White Sox are 33 and 114.
33:09
They just gotta win eight more to break the all-time futility record, and I'm sure nothing will go wrong with the Bears and Caleb Williams, Jordan. It should, it should all be okay for you.
33:16
[laughs] Well, yeah, it's gonna be celebrating for sure. [laughs] I think there were more f- there were more f- there were less fans at the game yesterday than wins, so there were 32 fans at the game- Oh, man...
33:25
for the White Sox. I believe it, too. I'm sure they announced far more than that, though. Thank you, Jordan. Appreciate it. All right, fellas. Thank you.
33:31
Jo- Jordan Sherwood, everybody, uh, once again, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Um, and, uh, check out Jordan, if you would, please, on the Twitter machine, of course, at, uh, Wood on ESPN 1000.
33:42
NFL power rankings on the other side. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:50
Are you the type of player who's looking to get down $10,000 or more on an NFL line at the best price in the market? Or maybe you're looking to get your in-game play instantly accepted. We got the answer for you.
34:00
Sport Trade, the app that's gonna change sports betting forever. -104 lines instead of the typical -110, instant in-game betting, and a concierge player service.
34:11
Sport Trade, perfect for those who want a premium betting experience. Sport Trade live in New Jersey, Colorado, and Iowa, and coming to Arizona and Virginia this fall.
34:18
Download Sport Trade, use code VSin to earn 10% cash back on each wager in your first week. Terms apply. Gotta be 21 years or older to play.
34:26
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. And Kelly, we will have Alex Kane on the show tomorrow- Right...
34:34
from Sport Trade, the CEO, uh, coming back on the show, I should say. He's been on before. And on our, uh, football Fridays tomorrow, Chris Velika, Dr. Bob, Steve Fezzik. Does it get better than that? Jam packed, yeah.
34:47
Big s- big show tomorrow. It's like those, uh, Old Milwaukee beer commercials. They used to say, uh, "It don't get no better than this." I haven't, I haven't had an Old Milwaukee in a minute.
34:56
Old Mil- In, in a minute, as they say I, uh, haven't had one in two minutes. [laughs] We get tweets that beat in the book. This is from, uh, ScottyB726, best listeners to the game.
35:06
Uh, he says, "I promise if you mention it, I missed it, but, um, looking at my survivor and thinking about it the way you outline, I'd be willing to bet you're taking the Chargers on at least one."
35:15
I like when people predict what I'm taking on Survivor. [laughs] I don't... S- Scotty, I don't think I can do it. I can't do it. I really don't. It's the only thing I've decided. I don't think I can.
35:24
It's the only thing I've actually decided this week about Survivor. I'm not doing that. Chargers on the road against the Panthers. They're big favorites. I don't think I could do it.
35:31
This is from Mi- Mike United, MikeUnitedRGR8. Uh, and he sent this to a bunch of us. He says, "Here in Colorado, we have a team to be a wild card and then win the Super Bowl prop." How about that?
35:44
Uh, so he has, uh, a few that he personally liked. The Bills at 50 to 1. This is, again, to be wildcard and to win the Super Bowl.
35:51
Bills 50 to 1, Eagles 60 to 1, assuming, uh, he's thinks the Cowboys are gonna beat them in the, uh, NFC East. And then the Texans at 60 to 1, just in case the Jags or somebody else like the Colts takes them down.
36:02
He says Allen and Stroud are two of the best A- uh, the two best AFC quarterbacks besides Mahomes, and Eagles can travel and win. I like it. A great market. I, I don't know if we have it here in town.
36:11
Uh, we talked about it quick over the summer. Yeah. Maybe you were, uh, maybe you were out when we did. I- it was, it was long back. I remember pointing out the Bills, though, as one I like.
36:21
I mean, I think all three of those are good calls. Me too.
36:24
Almost any of these d- divisions where, okay, if you're high on the team, but maybe even if you're just a little uncertain on how the division's gonna play out, right?
36:32
Like, that's not, 50, 60 to 1, those are not bad numbers. I like any market that requires two, two different levels of thinking, right?
36:39
Not good enough to win your division, but then has the ability to win, sort of like we do in baseball, uh, when those markets exist. Here's another one. Uh, this is from, I think we have one more here. No? Should I read?
36:49
Okay. Yep. I'll read. Uh, th- this is from Mike Stacks. Uh, "In past years, I'd normally look for big spreads to help me choose my survivor teams.
36:57
This year, I just can't pull the trigger on those top favs, and inside my head I keep saying, 'Take teams with no future value.' Survivor is in my head 24/7, and it's only week two."
37:05
Mike Stacks, join the club on that, for sure. Uh, this is from Mr. Masterline. He says, "Yankees win it in 11 on 9/11, and the Mets won it from behind in the ninth, where they sent 11 batters to the plate. Just saying."
37:18
On the, uh, on the day that was 23 years after 9/11 itself. Uh, he's just pointing that out about the Yankees and the Mets. Uh, Loser Larry says, "Hey, Gil, there's a really good documentary on YouTube about Dave Stieb."
37:30
I had mentioned Dave Stieb earlier, um, the former Blue Jays pitcher who, you know, had, had, had near misses, really near misses, couple in a row where he went eight and two-thirds and missed a no-hitter.
37:42
But apparently there's a documentary on him called Who's Dave Stieb? So I'm looking- [laughs] Yeah. Oh, no, it's not called Who's Dave Stieb.
37:49
It's called Meet Dave, Captain A, of the Story of Dave Stieb, and then it, in the subtitle it says, "Who's Dave Stieb?" So- That's great... Meet Dave, Captain A, of the Story of Dave Stieb. Looking forward to that.
37:57
Thank you, uh, Loser Larry. Jesse Welch, "There's always an uneasy feeling for me when I'm oppo you on a game, Gil, but we'll see what happens tonight. Go Bills." I suppose I should be flattered by that. Thank you.
38:08
Um, and Brian M says, "Having listened [laughs] to the show for a while now and following the tennis picks, I keep thinking, uh, Nikoloz Basilashvili is switching from ATP to UFC-" [laughs] "...
38:19
hearing about the main event. Also hearing Brian Ortega's giving out awards props in a live dog Saturday." [laughs] Yeah.
38:26
You gotta, gotta watch out around the visa offices with Brian Ortega and Matt Brown meeting in the octagon. That's, uh, yeah.
38:31
That's our own Brian Ortega, who, uh, when we asked him yesterday, uh, who, who's the leader for the Oscars, one of the, one of the films he said was Dune 2. Dune 2. That's who, that's who he likes.
38:41
The great, uh, the great Zen movie. Good flick. It was a good flick. You saw it? Yeah. I did, actually. Okay. Saw, saw both the Dunes. It was good. Both the Dunes? Both the Dunes. Dune 1, Dune 2?
38:49
No, like, like, he did one of those, right. I, I, I, I don't know why I watched the first one, but I was watching it, and I was like, "Well, this is pretty good," right?
38:56
And then, but then you're like, "All right," I'm like two hours into this thing, "When does this wrap up?" And then you, and then it finishes, and you're like, "Wait, did you really just leave it on, like, a cliffhanger?
39:04
Like, I gotta come back for the second one?" All right. And that's what they did. Biggest, biggest complaint I have about movies today, everything doesn't have to be three hours. Okay.
39:13
Oh, I, I'll, uh, I thought you were going a different direction. No. Everything doesn't need to be a remake or, like, redo something. Oh, yeah.
39:19
We've officially run out of music, and we've officially- We've run out of ideas [laughs]... and we've officially run out of ideas, apparently. Um, last two.
39:25
Judd O' Connor, th- uh, talking about the trend I was talking about earlier with week two situations. Um, and he says, "33% under a touchdown?"
39:34
Specifically what he was talking about, um, was that, uh, in the last, let's see, the last 10 years, we were talking about favorites cover in week two just 42.9% of the time, but if you go down further, if they are favorites under a touchdown, they only cover 37% of the time.
39:49
Last five years, 33% of the time. And to that, he said, "Sounds like a good progression to the mean. Let's go chalk." Frats from Judd O' Connor. And the world be free say, "Sweating any MLB futures?" Yeah, man.
40:00
Braves to miss the playoffs, one of them, and of course, uh, the Diamondbacks every which way. All right. Time, ladies and gentlemen, for our NFL power rankings. Plug it in. [upbeat jingle] We spare no expense.
40:17
[laughs] That's r- that's right. Spare no expense with our graphics. All right, uh, here they are after week one, and again, if you're asking, "Hey, uh, what's with the power rankings? Why you gotta do this?"
40:25
Uh, again, it's guardrails. It's just to keep us honest that we don't overreact from one week to the next.
40:30
So in other words, I don't wanna, like, go crazy and drop somebody I had at number three out to number 15 and then all of a sudden think to myself, "Oh, they stink."
40:38
It's a good way to say, "Okay, yeah, I should probably only drop them down this much because they're still good, and that'll fight against recency bias." So here are my NFL power rankings after week one.
40:46
Niners are number one. They were number one most of my year last year, too. Two, the Chiefs. I don't know if you know this, but they have a, uh, quarterback by the name of Patrick Mahomes. Are you familiar with that?
40:55
Yeah, you know, uh, yes. Y- you know what I realized, though? We never actually did full preseason power rankings. We did AFC and NFC- That's right... and we did the quarterbacks. We never did the full NFL.
41:04
We never, we never put them together. So it actually was kind of interesting to see how ours collided together with the AFC, NFC. I got the Ravens number three. No shame in losing to the Chiefs.
41:15
Ravens, I'm still very high on. That feels to me like I'm on an island with that, too, in our little too close to the sun sphere that we exist in. Everybody's down on the Ravens. I'm not.
41:24
I don't think, I don't think they're as good as they are last year. All right. Cowboys are four. I know. I hate them from birth. They're four. I, I'm shocked, uh, by this.
41:32
I, I think that's the, the only one on your list I'm a little surprised by. And they- Ju- just it's Gil Alexander having the Cowboys this high...
41:38
I'm a very objective guy when it comes to this, and Lions fans, I don't hate you anymore. You're number five. How about that? Eagles are six. Rams, even in defeat, are seven, but they're banged up.
41:48
Now, here's, here are the ones that people will be like, "How could you put the Bengals eight and the Jets nine?" Well, they lost one game. Yeah. Um, the Bengals are eight and the Jets are nine until further notice.
41:58
And then I do have the Seahawks at 10. Okay. I like it. All right. What do you got? I like it. I was trying to figure out who, who, who do I have in that you don't. A couple teams. Oh, the Texans you don't have on yours.
42:07
Oh, the Texans are there. That's who it is. Okay. Yeah. Um, all right. Mine, I got Chiefs one. Um, I think they are one for me until, uh, I don't, I don't know what happens. They might be one the whole season.
42:17
Even, even if they lose, like, four games in a row, Gil, they might still be number one for me. 'Cause [laughs] after what we saw last year with this Chiefs team.
42:24
Like, okay, we, we doubted them all last year and they just went, went and won a Super Bowl. So as long as they're in the playoff picture, they might be number one for me.
42:31
Um, 49ers, we had this conversation we did, when we did the NFC. I thought 49ers, Eagles, Lions were all very close together.
42:39
I think one of the big takeaways I had from week one is that, yes, 49ers made a statement, at least to me, that they are still the clear-cut number one team in the NFC and the team to beat.
42:48
So I went Niners and then Eagles, Lions. I went all three of those NFC teams right in a row.
42:53
I do think they are a cut above, uh, kinda the next crop of teams, which I think goes back to the AFC, where you have a logjam of teams. I've got Ravens there, five.
43:03
I think I'm real close, though, to saying in a couple weeks that the Tech- Texans are the second-best team in the AFC. I, I think we're getting to that point. It's not as much of a knock on the Ravens.
43:12
I do think they've taken a step back. I think that offensive line does have some issues. But man, I think C.J.
43:17
Stroud and this Texans team, I, I think, I don't think we're expecting any setbacks year two, and I think we're gonna see a special team, uh, down there in Houston this year. So I have them six.
43:26
Agree with what you said about Jets and Bengals, right? It's one loss. Let's not overreact. We talked about it all, uh, all off-season, this Jets team.
43:34
Hey, if we think this offense, you can just get mediocre, average quarterback play out of Aaron Rodgers, they should be right there with how good of pieces they have on the defensive side.
43:42
I don't think anything's changed with that. So I've got them number seven. I got Superman, uh, Josh Allen, and the Bills number eight. Uh, Bengals number nine, although, eh, this is a big week for the Bengals, right?
43:53
Like, they gotta... They don't have to win this game, but man, I think they gotta show some life a little bit, right?
43:58
Um, and then I got Cowboys 10, whi- which I guess I'm surprised there's that big of a gap, uh, uh, between where you had Cowboys and I do.
44:05
But I don't even see that as that insulting 'cause it's, it, there's a lot of good teams in the NFL right now. And I had Texans 11, just to let you know. Yeah. Um- I don't know how many great teams there are in the NFL.
44:14
Yeah. There's a lot of good teams. Yeah. I think that's true. But I don't know. I think, I think the Chiefs... I, I, let's put it this way.
44:21
I think the Niners are great, and I think the Chiefs will always be great as long as they have the, uh, the hack, the NFL hack that is, the hack code that is Patrick Mahomes.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
