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Sep 12, 2025
A Numbers Game | September 12, 2025 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | September 12, 2025 | Hour 3
00:00
44:50
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. However you take it us in, we appreciate it. I am truly grateful.
0:21
Best listeners ever, any show, any format, history of radio. I'm convinced of it. It's Gil Alexander. Kelly Midland behind the glass. Uh, Kelly Midland, this is just a, he, uh, he...
0:31
I should have said this when he was here. Down to 222 pounds. He has lost, that means he has lost, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, 94 pounds. 94. He is six away. When he gets to 216, that will be 100 pounds.
0:48
So next time, uh, Kelly's in here, which will be later this hour, we will applaud him to his face. But, uh, 94 pounds down for Kelly Midland.
0:55
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, this is a man who has, uh, been in weight loss bets with Todd Wishnev before, famously a few years back. It's time for Fezzik Fridays.
1:06
[upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays. The only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest.
1:17
Has that ever come up on the show before? There was only, like, 20 people back then. Yeah. It's trivial. You, that's, [laughs] that's what people say to you. There's only 20 people.
1:23
It's, it's three guys in, three guys in, in some attic in a contest that does- [laughs]... it's meaningless. That's how you want it. Uh, before we get, 'cause we have so much to get to here.
1:31
You got college football plays. You got pro thoughts. We got survivor thoughts to get to. Um, betting shops doing fascinating things here all of a sudden.
1:40
I wanna just bring up one thing, 'cause I was talking to Felika and, uh, Notre Dame came up. Is it too early? You know, if they, if they go 0 and 2, is it, is it panic mode?
1:50
You texted something at that moment which I was, I was sort of smiling to myself because last year, game two famously, the Fighting Irish lose to Northern Illinois, and there were people, not me, right?
2:02
'Cause I, I was the one who was, who was fighting this, but there were people who were like, "Oh, they're done." They're at Squid Games. Eliminated. Yes. Notre Dame. And I'm like, "No, they're not."
2:10
Like, do you know anything about how this college football works? If they go 0 and 2, they're not eliminated, are they? It, n- not, they could lose th- this year they could lose 73 to nothing to Texas A&M. Oh, man.
2:19
And everyone's like, "They're done-zo. They're out." And then, but you know what? Then the leaves turn. Yeah.
2:24
And then we fast-forward into November, and then they, they beat up four cupcakes, and they beat a top, a, a top 20 team, and all of a sudden, you know, they start talking about whether they're gonna get a bye or not.
2:34
They're certainly [laughs] gonna be in the... They, they won't get a bye, but they'll be in the championship. Yeah. All right, you have a bunch of college football plays.
2:40
Would you like me to scream 'em out loud or you wanna scream 'em? Yeah, you, you can go ahead. All right. Um, Friday, tonight, Arizona, Kansas State under 54.5. Yes.
2:49
You know, the more I think about this, and this is the time of year, by the way, I turn the page. I kind of, week zero, one, two, I like playing unders.
2:55
Now I like playing overs usually, but this one kind of makes sense because you think to yourself, "Arizona, that's an over team," right? And then I got, I'm the great ag- aggregator- You are... if you will. You are.
3:04
So my guys say this total should be 52, but the, but it makes sense to me, like intuitively it feels like, oh, Arizona, that's a, that's a high-scoring team, and I could see why this number was sitting out there at 55, mid-50s.
3:17
So the more I think about it, the more I'm like, "That's, that's a good contrarian under." Okay. Kansas State, Arizona under tonight, college football.
3:25
Uh, with the Houston Cougars, you are laying the points and you are also sprinkling on the money line a little bit on the -180 price.
3:31
Yeah, so if you normally bet 220 to win 200 on something, a g- you know, risk 110, lay the four and risk 110 on the money line, so you could split it up that way.
3:39
Um, you know, Colorado's just one of those teams, and I know they've had some nice results, but basic strategy just screams at me, "Bet against this team," you know?
3:49
With all the distractions and, and not being buttoned up, bad game management decisions, and also the one thing that drives me crazy is it's one thing when a coach makes bad game decisions, and it's another thing when he's interviewed, a complete inability to ever recognize that maybe there's opportunity for improvement.
4:08
Mm-hmm. You know? And so they'll just keep making the same mistakes over and over, and we talk about this famously in the NFL, how we love coaches that do smart things because it's so rare. We'll get to that.
4:17
We'll get to that. That's- Um, speaking of the fact that you do like overs now, this, this week moving forward, uh, New Mexico, UCLA, you're going over 52.5 here. Are you also playing UCLA or just the over?
4:28
Yeah, I played U- UCLA -15 also. Okay. So f- so four plays, and obviously it's correlated, so you could, you could play UCLA parlay to the over. Um, but that's not an official play. [laughs] Just being, being clear.
4:39
I, I kind- Yes. Yeah, I've, I really like, um, this time of year also when there's big favorites and even more than the 15, I, I love, like, when there's a 38-point favorite and the total's 51.
4:50
I'm like, I never wanna lay the 38. I just wanna play over 51. Yeah. Because obviously the favorite can get there by themselves, but, you know, it seems impossible for some of these teams.
4:59
Like, they're not gonna be able to score. It's like, I assure you, they can score. You know, just, the punt return, you know, d- just pick sixes.
5:04
Weird things happen in football games over 60 minutes, and there's always the backdoor and the final, you know, possession against the backups.
5:11
Also mentioned, uh, earlier, we're talking about Clemson, Clemson having lost to LSU, and then they were down to Troy at, at halftime before they came back. You have played an adjusted win total on Clemson.
5:22
Yes, so Clemson opened nine and a half wins, all right? And it got bet up, so there was vig to the over, and now the total's nine and a half with vig, big vig to the under, -160. That seems like a big adjustment.
5:33
Instead of being -160 to the over, it's -160 to the under. But now think about it. Clemson's, uh, has already lost a game against LSU as a favorite.
5:42
So they were supposed to win that game maybe, like,.65, and they got zero wins out of it.
5:47
So they already dropped two-thirds of a win just from that game, and their power rating's down, like, seven points from the start of the year. They're only [laughs] laying, like, 2.9 against Georgia Tech.
5:58
They were laying nine to start the season. So they just lost, you know, uh,.25 wins in expectation in that game, and what's this? Florida State is on the schedule
6:08
I can only imagine what Clemson was in Games of the Year lines. Now the only question w- by the time they play is who's gonna be favored, right? I mean, crazy to think Clemson's gonna get to 10.
6:18
I love when you s- when you, uh, interrupt your own sentence by going, "Wait, what's this?" [laughs] It's very Batman Adam West. "What's this?" What's that? I, I stole it from my eight o' clubs friend, Leon.
6:27
He does this. "What? What's this?" Don't forget to look both ways, Robin, when you cross the street. Um, while we're giving out picks, 'cause I wanna get to some other stuff, but how about an NFL play? You have an under.
6:36
Yeah, you know, I was thinking Denver, Indy, just big picture. So Denver grinds out a win, right, last week against the Titans, and they turn the ball over four times. They're sloppy with the ball.
6:47
Nick's is sloppy, got a great defense. Why risk anything? Just turn over the defense. Be careful with the ball. So I see ultra conservatism from Denver. I see a whole lot of Jonathan Taylor for Indianapolis. It's at 43.
7:02
Let's go under. Okay. Stevie coming out firing with college football and an NFL play. And we get 43 and a half. There is a 43 and a half out there.
7:09
Yeah, under 43 and a half, Denver and Indianapolis, ah, this Sunday afternoon, one of the afternoon games at Lucas Oil Stadium. Uh, okay, so for those who don't know, you run a, a sports service.
7:20
Uh, you are giving out all kinds of plays, pre-flop, uh, sides, totals, halftime bets. You're giving out a bunch of stuff, but a l- some of it is live. That is fraught with peril, isn't it?
7:33
You know, I've thought about this, yeah, and the problem, I hear all the time, "Well, people can't get it," okay? Yeah.
7:37
Because you, you literally have to be sitting, you know, at your phone or at the computer, get the notification, and you've got one and a half minutes to bet. I give it out during TV timeouts, all right?
7:47
And the more I think about it, the more I'm like, it's actually much, much more a- available than most normal releases, and here's why. Hmm. Let's assume Dr. Bob is giving out, you know, his, uh, his releases, right?
8:00
Uh, season wins, all right? Sea- oh, they move too quick. You have three seconds- It's ridiculous... to get down. Yeah. Literally three seconds. Yeah. All right?
8:07
If you're fast, you, and you got the right book- Sometimes you don't even have that. Yeah, sometimes zero, sometimes you'll have up to 45 seconds, depending upon the book.
8:13
But once, as Springsteen said, you know, "Those lines are moving, boys, and they ain't coming back," all right? Hmm. You can, you, you, if, if you wake up, i- if you try to bet an hour later, you're donezo.
8:22
What, the, the thing about the live betting is that I'm not just picking off like, like a dumbo stale number. I'm saying I like Cleveland to beat Cincinnati, and it's like give out Cleveland in the second quarter.
8:32
You know what? If you miss it, if you don't get it right away, you got the whole rest of the game. You might get a better number. You might get a worse number, but you can bet it during the next TV timeout and et cetera.
8:42
The handicap is still valid, whereas if Right Angle Sports or Dr. Bob or someone else like that gives out a play, you're donezo. You cannot get the number 30 seconds later.
8:52
So I would argue the live bets are way more available than a lot of this other stuff. Yeah, but they move quick, too, in a different way, right?
8:59
'Cause action is happening, but you're right, if you get it at a stoppage- But it's unbiased. Right. It, it, it might move in your favor. That's right. It might move against you. That's right. That's absolutely right.
9:06
The, the Bob thing is literally like one of the pillars of offshore. If I try to bet that, um, it's not even three seconds. The, the juice is already so high on some of it, right, before- And-...
9:17
the number moves and- And I get so frustrated- Yeah... because, because people, like, they, they wanna yell at me. They're mad at me. They're, they're, like, disagreeing with me.
9:23
Everything I say is wrong, and it's like wh- what, what, what I don't understand is, like, like, we, uh, you know, I got friends that are professional gamblers. We all talk about this- Yeah...
9:31
and we all say- Yeah, we do... of course Right Angle Sports and Dr. Bob are not just better. They're way better than most good services, and the best evidence I can give is, you know, Circa, yeah, they buy Dr.
9:45
Bob's [laughs] yeah, plays. That's- Circa- That's right... buys Right Angle Sports plays.
9:49
I mean, the sportsbook with, that is paying people, you know, a, a lot of money to do this work w- i- is effectively employing- That's right... them as consultants.
9:58
Anybody in the employ of Circa who says that, who, who has said, "Why do, if you're so good at betting, why do you sell picks?" They're the biggest walking hypocrites 'cause they're the one buying the picks themselves.
10:08
Well, well- That's exactly right... and it just, it just makes- Yeah. I buy picks all the time. I mean- Yeah... the, the whole idea that someone would say, "Oh, I'm, like, I don't buy picks. I'm, I, I, I know it all.
10:17
I know, I know everything," is- Also, also the notion that if, you know, again, and, and we, we put Raz and, and Dr. Bob on a certain category unto themselves, right? They, they- Carl Zack, NBA guru. Carl Zack.
10:28
There are, there are exceptions to the rule. Yes. Yes. Most people, right, historically, who sell picks, right?
10:34
These guys are, these guys are built different, and, you know, also the notion of if they're so good, why do they sell picks? Do you, did you tell your stockbroker the same thing?
10:43
Like, it, who are you to tell other people what streams of, of revenue they should have, and also what their, what their risk aversion should be? If you're- Right?... imagine a mutual fund manager.
10:54
If, if you're so good, why would you need 10 analysts to help you? I mean, anyone that says, like, like, "Why would someone sell their picks?"
10:59
I, it, it, it's actually, I'll say it's like throwing great guys like Adam Burke, um, Steve Mackinnon, under the bus. Yeah. If these guys were so good, why would they have to be employed? Why wouldn't they just...
11:10
You know, I mean, they, and they do great work, and they give out more winners than losers. Yeah. And guess what?
11:14
You can m- because they can bet their stuff and make money, and they can make more money by providing consulting and, and working for companies and pr- providing that great info.
11:22
It's such a, it's such a lazy, ill-informed, um, way to look at things that paints everything with one broad brush, and it's just not. It's, it's just stupid. And, and so- Yeah... and, and for some people it is true.
11:33
Some people can't- Yeah... they can't win at all, and they sell their picks, and- That's right... and it, it, I 100% agree with that. Just don't broad-brush it. More with Fezzik on the other side.
11:41
A whole bunch of survivor talk we've gotta get into, and what's gotten into these books in Nevada? Ooh. Giving reduced juice, what's that all about? Next on The Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network.
11:50
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
12:06
The season may have started, but you can still jump into the VSIN Average Joe contest sponsored by Edge Boost. Each week you make seven picks, NFL or college, and the best score of the week wins $500.
12:18
If you have an Edge Boost account already, like last week's winner, then it's $1,000 every week. If that's not enough, there are quarterly prizes, too.
12:25
Airfare to Las Vegas and a free two-night stay at Circa Resort, and your chance to be on a VSIN show. How about that? Free to play. You can enter any time at vsin.com/joe. We get tweets and beat in the book.
12:38
Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Best listeners in the game. StringFellowHawk talking about the fight. He says, "I'm Canelo by decision at plus 125.
12:46
Crawford's fought once in two years and jumping up two weight classes. May add Canelo by late stoppage." Um, I thought that point by Al was great.
12:53
Like, if, uh, I always, I walk out of some of these boxing matches through the years, and what do I say to myself? Steve Fezzik, by the way, joining me, uh, once again here.
13:01
Um, I always say, I go, "Reminder to self, don't bet this sport ever again 'cause these decisions are nonsense." I didn't use the word nonsense, right? And Al pointed it out. He was like, "Here's the thing.
13:11
If you like Crawford by decision," which a lot of people do, and that's plus 210, Crawford's plus 155-ish to win the fight in any which way, um, plus 210 by decision. Just remember all those decisions that seem to...
13:24
I don't know why they go Canelo's way, but he seems to get the benefit of the doubt. Do you bet boxing at all? Uh, sure. I bet everything. Not much. I do have a question for you, and it's- Yes, sir...
13:33
we don't know what the judges' scorecards are until the whole match is over. How- I know where you're going...
13:38
how the, can they not say at the, at the end of one round, "Yeah, here's what the judges have scored," and put a scoreboard up there? Why don't we do that? Why don't we do that?
13:47
Maybe they feel, maybe they feel that the judges are being compromised by what the other judge is scoring and they, he sees the other scoring.
13:53
But the, but you could shield them from, you could put them, like, in little booths where they wouldn't... Everyone in the arena would know the score but them. Right.
13:59
You wouldn't want them to get a crowd reaction that would then influence them moving forward. Right. But you could, you could find a way to, like, just, like I said, just put them in an isolation booth.
14:09
This is a great innovation, right? I think this is, this has to be the... And the best we ever got with that was Jim Lampley going to Harold Lederman mid-fight, right? Mm-hmm. Where he would go, "I don't know, Jim.
14:20
I got this fight scored," you know. That, that's the only thing we would ever get mid-fight. Otherwise, we're all waiting. Like, w- it's 2025.
14:28
What other thing in life do we have to wait till the end to find out, "Oh my God, I can't wait to hear what these- Soccer and how much, how much time's left with the, with the, the extra time. Oh, the extra time. Yeah.
14:35
Can you imagine, "You know, Pedrosa thinks she's ahead in this tiebreaker- [laughs] "... but she's really not sure." [laughs] She's really not sure. Uh, this is from Matthew Mayberry: "What was Dr. Bob on this weekend?
14:45
I missed it." [laughs] He is on Tennessee plus the points. Tennessee plus the points against Georgia. And then Iowa Pete- By the way, Felika on the other side. Yes.
14:52
And when those two gentlemen are on the oppo side, probably best to just find a different game. Oppo. Oppo alert. Uh, Iowa Pete reacting to the, uh, Crack segment yesterday.
15:02
He said, "My wife and another woman had their cell phones stolen while playing slots last month at Bellagio. Security could not have cared less in this case. Wife's phone turned up in China a week later."
15:12
How good is Circa? True story. I was just, you know, depositing some money, and literally, nice gentleman. Um, he, he's c- coming from Circa Swim already. He's already clearly under the influence.
15:24
He has, like, a winning ticket that looks like it's been through a dryer. You know, it's all crumpled up, like somehow it's, it's survived his pocket from last night from partying.
15:32
And then I go to the other window that opens up and what is there that's been left on the counter? Of course, a cell phone- Yeah... from the previous customer. Uh, Disc Golfer.
15:40
[laughs] Disc Golfer: "Just a heads up, the VSIN live player still list hour three of the show as Money Moves." Oh, we can't have that. Ooh. Note to self. Note to everybody. RaiderNation75: "Wow, Kelly, 94 pounds.
15:50
Amazing. Like losing a second grader of 11.75 Shaq babies. Love the show today." Why? Thank you, RaiderNation75.
15:57
And Coach Harry Ellis: "My experience with buying picks started with a well-known tout who gave me both sides of an NBA game." Oh, this is the, this is the history of this industry.
16:06
"He gave me both sides of an NBA game, one on a voicemail and another on a phone call. However trustworthy they all might be, I'll never buy straight picks from anyone.
16:13
Uh, I do buy services like Phil Steele because I get 50 game write-ups and can make up my own mind." That's what Bob, by the way, does that lengthy analysis on everything, right? So it's what matters to you the most.
16:24
You know, here's the analysis, you decide kind of thing. Yeah, it's really nice to have a write-up. The problem with the write-up, a- and Dr.
16:30
Bob I think would b- be the first to admit it, is that you don't wanna do a write-up explaining just how overrated Jacksonville State is week two. [laughs] And then all of a sudden- Yeah... "Oh, what's this?"
16:40
[laughs] What's this? As soon as the numbers come out, people are betting against Jacksonville State each and every week, compromising the number. What's this? Will Batman survive? All right.
16:49
Let me ask you this about the, uh, this thing that's happening in Vegas all of a sudden kinda out of the blue. Uh, MGM, BetMGM all of a sudden dealing minus 102s on Thursday Night Football an hour before the game.
17:03
Ex- What's that about? It, so I, I, Crack alerted me to this. So it's minus 105, but then an hour before the game it goes to minus 102 in each direction. So it shows it was- Have they promoted this at all? No. No. Yeah.
17:15
Crack promoted it for them. Yeah. But it shows, in my eyes, how difficult it is to win, right? So think about this. Yeah. Minus 10- you, minus 110, you have to hit 52.4%.
17:25
So at minus 102, you probably, you have to hit, like, 50.4% [laughs] of the time in order to turn a profit, and yet is everybody driving to the MGM to bet their minus 102? Bro, I didn't know. Yeah.
17:38
I mean, by the way, we should give a shout-out. Westgate does minus 105. Boomers does minus 105 as well. Yes. Yes. The new, uh, Joe Asher spot. Uh-huh. Joe longing for my arrival, I'm sure.
17:48
They're, they're not taking big action at Boomers. Yeah. People are disappointed. [laughs] Yeah, sure. I'm sure they are. Okay. To, uh, let's go to Survivor.
17:57
So earlier in the week, Kelly and I, I think it was maybe, might have even been yesterday or the day before, I don't even know when, but earlier in the week at some point, uh, Kelly put up a bunch of, uh, he put up, like, six games in Survivor.
18:07
This is Tim Lawson inspired, Megapod historian, and the, the headline was...
18:11
'Cause we, I went through the four teams of the big spreads that I'm not gonna play, the four teams from which I'm considering of the big spreads, and then he put up six games of really small spreads this week, and he s- and the headline was, um-
18:24
... smart, I don't know, some- something to the effect of a contrarian play or too cute. And I said, "Not only is it too cute," [laughs] I said, "It's adorable."
18:31
[laughs] Like, I told, I said, "This is, you should never play this kind of stuff," right? 'Cause it's, it's way too cute. You not only believe this, but you've actually attached numbers to this as well. Yeah.
18:40
Re- yeah, so what, what's happened, and I get it, you, people wanna take the, a path of least resistance or a path where they can get a bigger payout. So they don't wanna just take the obvious play.
18:51
Last week, the obvious play was Denver, this week's Baltimore. And that all makes sense to be contrarian when everybody else is playing the basic play. But everyone isn't playing the basic play.
19:01
I, the, the Internet's chock full of, you know, "Hey, which underdog should I play in the survivor?" Well, here's the actual numbers. I, I told you the Broncos last week was only gonna be 30-some percent.
19:10
It was less than 40%. Yeah. So the, so the bottom line is, um, I, I've got two points I wanna make. So in order to sur- it's like a 20-team parlay. You gotta pick 20 winners. Yes. All right?
19:19
So the best you can really hope for is if you map out a good path, be like a l- just a smidgeon over 70% on each ep- each play. Now, some of your plays are gonna be 85% plays.
19:28
Some, some, some weeks you're gonna have to be stuck with, like, a 58% play. But we'll call it, on average, 70%. It turns out the odds of hitting a 20-team parlay at a little over 70% are approximately 1,000 in one.
19:40
All right? So you, so you'd have to play 1,000 times to win once. If you just dilute that down to where you're only playing 60% plays, or you're being cool, you know, you're taking- Mm-hmm...
19:50
a contrarian path, now your odds, you think, "Oh, maybe it's 3,000 or 4,000 to one," it goes to 27,000 to one. All right? It's 27 more times difficult. As opposed to 1,000 to one. Yes. 27,000.
20:01
And if you wanna just play pick 'ems, all right, be complete contrarians and just pick the winner of pick 'em games, it's a million to one. It will never happen. Yeah. You, you will not succeed. Now, I get it.
20:10
You're not just doing that every week. You're doing some of the weeks. But you do it enough weeks. Yeah. And you're just so up against it.
20:16
And what I would encourage everyone to do is, like, if you're in survivor and you get your $1,000 and you're playing this cutesy stuff where you're taking a two-point favorite, all right?
20:24
Take $100, all right, as a side pot, and start just putting that on the money line and investing that, all right?
20:30
And what you're gonna find is it's not gonna take very long, and obviously it could be a huge upset that will change this.
20:35
By the end of week five, you're gonna have, on your survivor, you're like, "Oh, my survivor's worth $2,600," but my- Here it, here it is right here, by the way. "Too cute or a good gamble?" They're all- Yeah... adorable.
20:45
They're all adorable. That's right. But, but my, my, my, my, my point, like, like it makes sense. Yeah. If you, if you played five close to pick 'em games- Yeah...
20:51
you're, you're gonna have [laughs] yeah, I mean, you're, you're gonna have $32,000, you know, of, i- is what your survivor should be worth.
20:57
And it's only gonna be worth, like, im- its implied value's gonna be worth 3,000, so you're not getting enough bang for your buck.
21:03
It is rarely wrong to play the biggest favorite, as long as, you know, be, you don't wanna blow your path like of Christmas- Yeah... and, and, and Thanksgiving. Right. Um,
21:14
now, if everybody did that, people like, "Yeah, well, Steve, if everybody did that, it would be wrong." I, like, I agree. But if everybody did it, then you could be contrarian.
21:21
But you don't, everyone else is being contrarian, more than half the people. So you would agree, so I just wanna, like, contextualize a little bit. So
21:28
that is not to say, though, that in weeks where there are, like, I don't know, five or six, six, seven-point favorites, the real optimal way to play that is find the one that is not the most picked, right?
21:42
And that's what the optimal, quote-unquote, "contrarian" way to go is. Exactly. Yes. You wanna be slightly contrarian.
21:50
It's fine to take a six-point favorite if it gets you down a, as, a separate and a better path than a six-point, eight-point favorite.
21:57
But in general, like this week, y- y- just, just, just take your little finger and put bubble in Baltimore and- [laughs]... and, and, and sur- survive and advance.
22:05
And, and again, but if, i- if it turns out 85% of the people take Baltimore, it's still correct, I believe, but they wo- it won't be 85% Baltimore.
22:13
It's like the thought exercise, though, that I did with p- with Parls, uh, Grover Cleveland, our producer, Parlay, um, who, you know, Thanksgiving famously I said to him, "Yeah, okay, let's say there was 100 people," this was the Raiders-Cowboys game, and the Cowboys were heavily favored.
22:26
And I said to him, I go, "Let's say you knew in advance that 99 people of the 100 were gonna be on the Cowboys. Wouldn't you take the Raiders?" And he- Absolutely...
22:35
and he couldn't, he s- he was like, he was like, "No, I can't do it." I was like, "Jeff, you're playing to win. How many times in your life will you get s- a chance to win six or seven million?
22:42
You have to play it at that point." Yeah. But we don't know those numbers in advance. Yes. Precisely. A- a- and the key is- Right...
22:47
there's gonna be 18 winners is the expect- expectation, so you're gonna win a million dollars. You'd win more if you just played all these, parlayed them in money lines if you go, if you go oppo or crazy. Come on.
23:02
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The NFL season is officially underway. Of course, the edge goes to those with the best data.
23:10
VSiN Pro delivering real-time DraftKings and Circa betting splits so you can see where the public and sharps are putting their money.
23:16
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23:25
Sign up now for just $9.99 or save 50% with an annual subscription. Visit vsin.com/subscribe today. That's VSIN.com/subscribe. We get tweets of Beating the Book.
23:35
I always, uh, not only appreciate the feedback, but also appreciate the feedback about previous shows from people who are just listening now or just commenting now.
23:42
Uh, this is from, uh, Fairway Fred, "With record entries this year, over 18,000, the survivor chop over/under this year," he says, "is 11 and a half people?" He says, question mark. 11 and a half people?
23:54
Be- pre-fun, we, we talked about this p- in, uh, production here, 18, but, but remember, I just w- I, I, I s- I said it's 1,000 to one odds basically if you hit 70.7%.
24:03
Now, people don't play optimally, so maybe a little under 18 and a half. We would've made 16 and a half, but everybody got through week one. 22 and a half is the over/under. Wanna go over or under? 22 and a half?
24:12
That's my number. All right. Minus 110 either direction. I'll go under. You'll go under? Yeah. Dinner. How about for, uh, Grandissimo? What do you think the number of weeks?
24:19
Um, well, we're gonna, we're gonna lose half of the, half of the field every two weeks, so we go from s- after two weeks, 33, 11, six, three. One, after 10 weeks. There's no more 10 weeks.
24:30
I'm gonna, I'm gonna say- 10 weeks... I'm gonna say two people go mano to mano, mano a mano for a few weeks, and then they decide to jump. All right. 10 weeks- Yeah... is when, is when it ends. Okay.
24:39
Brett Liedtka, uh, "Fez's spot on started it this year with my Survivor friends. Four of us put in, uh, money each, uh, X money, X dollars each, and one person chooses a NFL Moneyline play.
24:50
If it hits, we roll it to the next and we can pass the ticket, similar to a show pool and horse betting."
24:55
Gen X Millennial, "Tech question, if I rate, review, like your pod on Spotify, does it help to, or do I need to do it in Apple Pods?" That's a great question. I have no idea.
25:03
Uh, Apple would be the preference, I would suppose. Uh, but thank you for that, Gen X Millen- Millennial. Table Max, "I started, uh, six and one, tied for 10th in Average Joe.
25:13
Assuming I keep that pace and win, do I get to choose what segment I appear on? Max and Crack has a nice sound to it." [laughs] Oh, I didn't know you wanted to come on this show, Max. Thank you for, uh, choosing us.
25:22
Yeah, you get to pick your segment. I gotta give a shout-out to a guy who hates me. So, um, Average Joe contest, Wes- Weston Stratton won it two years ago, and he's been hypercritical of me.
25:31
And I said, "Oh, Weston, do you wanna go one-on-one in the Circa, you know, Invitational Contest? You know, I'll do it for, you know, 100, 500, 5,000 if you'd let me know." And he actually took me up on it. There you go.
25:41
$500. So what, you know what? Win or lose- 500? Yeah, we went 500. Oh, that's- And, and dinner at Barry's. But you know, it d- the money doesn't matter.
25:48
The point is, hey, here's a guy that, that, that, that isn't just- Oh... internet tough guy. Here's a guy that's like, he- The money doesn't matter? I would've liked to have seen a bit more than 500.
25:56
Well, I, I, I'm fine with it. The, the point, the point is, is that he was willing to do, to, to, to not, to put something up with what he was saying, so. John, but yeah, shout out to him.
26:05
John Balduzzi, "Only time I've ever had to trash dive," or as we like to refer to it, dumpster dive. "Bet Tim Bradley," this refers to a conversation we had earlier in the week, "Bet Tim Bradley to beat Pacquiao.
26:15
Watched Manny crush him with my own eyes. Didn't wait for the call so I could beat the cab line. Tossed the ticket out. There's cell phone footage of me going through an MGM trash can. Found it."
26:24
That was the, uh, controversial split decision in favor of Tim Bradley over Manny Pacquiao that he's referring to. You have a dumpster dive moment for us? Yeah, I'm living at the Meridian Apartments. It's the year 2001.
26:35
Uh, Matt Youmans was living there also, you know? And so w- what's this $50 free match play mailed to each and every person.
26:43
So I'm just like, I'm just going through garbage cans, picking up my, it's, it's, each coupon's worth 25 bucks. You win half the time. Yeah. So, like, there, I must have, like, gotten, like, a, it's a Frank B. move.
26:53
I must have gotten, like, 75 coupons, you know, just use a couple of them a day. Again, boys and girls, I said this earlier.
26:58
If you do, if you absolutely rip up your ticket, throw it away, and then you find out, "Oh, wait, I'm in, uh, we won," or, "I'm entitled to a refund," whatever, like, you prematurely got rid of it, um,
27:11
you can go, i- as long as you get to the window before someone else who finds it and cashes it, you can go to the window or the, the, and say, "Hey, I bet it here or over there at that window for this amount of money at this time."
27:25
They will usually hook you up as long as no one gets to your ticket before that and cashes it. Um, okay, a couple things.
27:30
One, I wanna harken back to the, uh, the, the reduced juice lines at places like MGM who are dealing minus 102. Um,
27:37
it, it, it sort of brings to mind this stuff that we were talking about alt win lines or alt win totals, but we all talk about, like, alternate lines, and people, people are seduced by the plus 220s.
27:49
If you're getting minus 102 now, you shouldn't even mess with those, right? Yeah, so think about this. Do you wanna try to win into a market that has, like, minus 102 in each direction? You have to hit 50.4% to win.
28:01
Or do you wanna move the point spread five points, and now you're looking at, like, minus 240, plus 200?
28:06
That, so there's 40 cents of big fat vig in that alternative total, and there's four cents of vig in the minus 102 in each direction. I don't know about you, Gill, but I like laying minus 102.
28:17
I, I like, like, two cents of vig, not 20 cents of vig. Yeah. Um, sounds, sounds more optimal is what it does. All right, let's go to last night's football game, Green Bay and Washington.
28:26
I talked about it earlier on the show.
28:28
Um, I thought the two biggest takeaways from the game is, one, there was the transitive property of math, where I'm like, "Oh, is Detroit not big enough of a favorite now against Chicago?
28:37
What about now, um, you know, Dallas? Are they not big enough of a favorite against the Giants?" Washington having beaten the Giants, Green Bay having beaten Detroit last week, and so there's that.
28:47
And the other thing, and I put this in the newsletter last night, which is also the biggest takeaway, and I know you agree with this, is, listen, I know the, this wasn't a w- a large spread game.
28:58
I know this one was only three and a half.
29:00
But the fact that Washington, after getting so dominated, had a chance for a backdoor cover in that game at three and a half ought to give you pause about any large spread in the NFL, and you're on board with it.
29:12
Yeah, you're always vulnerable. Uh, like, when you're laying, you know, nine and a half, you really gotta think to yourself, "I'm laying 16 in many ways," right?
29:21
Because if you're up 16, you know, you're so vulnerable to only winning by eight with that backdoor score.
29:28
And, and teams, ultimately they wanna win the game, so they play the prevent defense, and the other team matriculates down the field. Wouldn't have surprised us at all.
29:35
It would've surprised me if Washington had lost that game by two, but I'm actually, I kind of wouldn't have been surprised if, if, uh, it surprised me they didn't get a field goal on their final drive, right?
29:46
We, we expect a team down nine usually gets- Well-... in the field goal range and kicks a field goal. Let's get into that. Mm-hmm.
29:51
Okay, 'cause I know we, I, I mentioned that we had this, the, the group exchange, and I was talking about this on S- on Tuesday morning after the Bears and the Vikings, and I mentioned that when the Vi- when the, uh, Bears cut it to three, they had that 51-second drive that cut it from 27-17 to 27-24, and on our group chat, you were like, "Oh, mark up Ben Johnson as one of these coaches that w- that doesn't know that he's supposed to go from four to two, that he's supposed to go with a two-point conversion to cut it to two there."
30:20
I then said, "Uh, I think you're wrong. I agree with the 14 to eight to six. I'm not on board with the 10 to four to two," and then I gave my reasons, and you and Todd argued it for, like, two hours into the night.
30:31
Yesterday, Washington Um, cuts it to 11 and goes for two and cuts it to nine. You loved that. Yeah, a- a- and it's a real easy analysis because everyone knows that if you're down 14, you got...
30:43
You go down eight, you go for two, and the reason being is that you're gonna win 62.5% of the time because you gotta assume you're gonna get one more touchdown, all right?
30:52
So if y- if you make the two-point conversion the first time, you win. All right? You're gonna win by one.
30:56
And if you miss it, you still have a path to victory where you can get the two-point conversion the second time and then win in overtime, and the same math applies. You have to assume, "Hey, I still need two scores.
31:06
I need a touchdown, and I need a field goal," so the field goal is, um, we're, we're gonna get the field goal. So you just lay it out and say, "Okay, it's the same thing as, as the two touchdowns.
31:15
Down 14 to eight, you go for two." Yeah, the reason I disagree with you on the 10 to four to two, and by the way, this is time-sensitive as well at the end of the game.
31:22
The reason that I view the 10 to four to two differently is that that brings into play the difference between a touchdown and a field goal needed. Much more complicated.
31:31
And, and that calculus is much different than the others. Really needs to be a Monte Carlo simulation. Yeah. Just run it 50,000 times. Um, Minnesota returning the kickoff.
31:39
Remember, so, so that sequence that I'm talking about, so they go ahead and they kick the extra point to cut it to three. You're already upset about that. But then 2- Bad answers... 2:02 left in the game. 2:02 left.
31:50
You're north of the two-minute warning. Chicago took an ill-advised timeout. The, the first one was a, was an advised, if you will, timeout, was a proper one w- on the Cole Kmet catch where the ball got punched out.
32:01
I still don't have a proper explanation as to why that was not a fumble. Um, but the second one they used was a little s- uh, was a little dubious. So they end up with one timeout left, clock at 2:02, down three.
32:13
And instead of telling, you know, instead of going for an onside kick to get the possession right back or kicking the ball out of bounds because you have a kicker that is not known for his leg in Cairo Santos- Mm-hmm...
32:27
to get it out of the end zone, Chicago kicks it to the end zone, which is problem 101. Is, is, which is, which is a problem, but you love what Kevin O'Connell had going there.
32:37
So O'Connell had instructed his kick returner, "Look, you know, we need two seconds to run off this clock. You gotta return the kick.
32:42
I don't care how deep you are," and then the dude catches it eight yards deep, and you can see it. Oh, really deep in the end zone because his muscle memory says...
32:48
I- I'm sure he's been screamed at, and this already happened earlier in the game, "Do not run the ball out of the end zone," because you get it on the 35, and O'Connell's like, "Come on." Right. "Come on."
32:56
It, it's like that movie Capricorn One where the, the, the biplane, Telly Savalas' biplane's there, and the astronaut, he's like, he's like waving to the astronaut, "Come on. Come on." Yes. And he takes it out.
33:05
Just like that movie, Steve. [laughs] Just, just like that movie. 50 years ago. [laughs] Well, okay, but we actually saw the kick return. Name's Roland.
33:11
We all, we actually saw his eyes look at Kevin O'Connell, and Kevin O'Connell do that, but could the k- could I... 'Cause Todd brought this up. Isn't actually, shouldn't Kevin O'Connell have made that clear beforehand?
33:21
I think he did. Shouldn't it happen during the play? I, I, I think he did, and then I think he's just, uh, he wanted to reinforce it. Yeah. Wanted to reinforce. You're probably right. You're probably right. Um,
33:30
kick returner's name escapes me, but- But, but, but David Kaufman, like one guy, one old bettor used to tell me, "Oh, Steve, if you were on the sideline, you'd, you wouldn't be able to handle this." It's totally untrue.
33:38
Like Will Hill, you, me, Todd, we know immediately. Yeah. Immediately. Always, "Gotta call timeout here." Yep. Gotta just, we, we- Yep... it's so rare we ever make a mistake, unlike my estimate.
33:46
I get it right within a couple seconds how far you can run the clock down. Ty Chandler, the kickoff returner for the Vikings in that case. Thank you, Steve. Capricorn One cash is 1,000 to 1 reference. Steve Fezzik.
33:55
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:10
Back on A Numbers Game live at Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin back in his chair- That's right... in the studio. Let's give him his flowers. That's what the kids say now.
34:21
94 pounds down, Kelly Bidlin, six shy- How about-... of 100... I suggest everybody gets sick for a few days. It helps out. Really helps out, Gil. I thought I was gonna be able to, uh,
34:34
just sort of outpace you, that you would never be able to catch me, but you're gonna pass me now. And it, it, so here's what I'm gonna do. I'm gonna plant myself at 216. I'm gonna let you pass me at 216.
34:44
You wanna go past 100, or you just 100's the goal and that's it? That was the, that was where it w- people always ask me, like what the goal was when I started, and it was like, I, dude, there's not a number, man.
34:54
I'm just trying to lose weight. Like for me, that was kind of the attitude at first. And then, and then it hits a point where you're like, all right, what's the, what's the y- you know, first, first goal line?
35:03
What's the second goal, right? Where, where do you get to? And this was the, this is the first major one, and that was it. And then like, uh, like Steve was saying, I think it was off air.
35:10
I don't think it was on air, but yeah. I w- I wa- I wanna see that one on the scale instead of a two. All right, but don't go too far down 'cause then it's just gross.
35:18
What, you don't think I'd look good at like 135 pounds? Oh, horrible. [laughs] David Dorman tweets. He says, "On the Bears-Vikings last kickoff, why didn't Ben Johnson just kick the ball out of bounds on the sideline?"
35:27
That's what I said. Ball goes to the 40 and no time run off. He risked kicking it out of the end zone for five yards. Why? David, I said that, I said that.
35:34
My first option was the onside kick, then second option, you should have just kicked it out of bounds.
35:38
Um, James Fessler, I won't go through the details here from James Fessler, but he is challenging Fezzik the actuary on his Circa survivor numbers in terms of when these contests will end. He says Grandissimo week 12.
35:50
All right. Okay. We'll see. We'll see. Thank you, James Fessler. What did I... By the way, real quick, I wa- I just thank you for all the support and everything along the way- Bro... with the weight loss. Come on, man.
35:58
'Cause that is, y- you've been one of my biggest supporters and fans out there, and I appreciate that, and I never say that. I never say that. Yeah, sure, man.
36:03
You're always giving me my flowers on the air, and I never say thank you. Because you are, uh, we, we all want you to be around for a long time, so you know.
36:10
Good for you to, to get ahead of it at your, uh, at your tender young age. Just don't- Approaching that four zero pretty quick, man... just, just don't- Ain't so young anymore...
36:18
just don't go yo-yo like Luther, you know? Like Luther Vandross. That yo-yo we were talking about [laughs] off air. Yeah. Uh- What a great Curb episode.
36:25
[laughs] Let's, uh, let's rec- [laughs] let's recap all the best bets from today's show, uh, or previous that are still up there. Actually, let's talk about, uh, my first one.
36:34
Has the Commanders-Packers game started yet, Kelly? 'Cause that's my first one. Well- Commanders plus three and a half...
36:38
Danny, I did a great job of, uh, moving your, moving his Jayden Daniels bet off there too, because we put it on your futures graphics. Yes, yes I missed this bet apparently No, no, no, no, no.
36:47
This should still be on there. This is my-- This is absolutely be on there if you have a Thursday bet. Commanders I had last night plus three and a half. They had the ball with the backdoor chance. Nope.
36:56
Lions minus five. Couldn't believe that one on Guessing Lines on Monday. That is higher now. That's six, six and a half now. Steelers minus two and a half, I bought that down from the two and a half.
37:05
And then the Falcons, I couldn't believe that on Guessing Lines on Monday either. That actually was higher and now has crossed back past me. That is only three and a half now.
37:17
So again, shout out to Guessing Lines on Monday, the most authentic reaction to match-ups. Um, so those are my four. Commanders already is a loser, loo-ser. [laughs] Uh, Ace Ventura? Yes. "Loo who?" "Loo-ser." Loo-ser.
37:33
All right, here we go, Gil. Let's go. Jags, Bengals over 48 and a half points. We're getting points. Two... These were two teams on my list. That list didn't look so great week one.
37:41
Hopefully these offenses get some things together. Uh, over 48 and a half Jags and Bengals. Bills laid the six and a half. Circle went to five and a half this morning.
37:49
I said, "Ah, I'm gonna jump back in if you're gonna give me five and a half." So, uh, I'll, I'll be a big Bills fan again this week apparently.
37:55
Um, with you on the Lions, uh, I'm very interesting, interested to watch that game. I think the atmosphere's gonna be fun with Ben Johnson coming back to town. And I...
38:05
Look, I do have my concerns about the Lions going forward, but man, there's still just so much talent on that team, and I'm not a believer in the Chicago team right now.
38:15
So five and a half, I'm there with you on that one. Little bit of a funky teaser for me. Stanford Wong would not approve. Falcons, uh, when they were at four and a half, I did a six-point teaser with the Bucs.
38:24
So Falcons up to 10 and a half, Bucs up to eight and a half. And then Broncos, Colts, I am with Mr. Fezzik on under 43 and a half.
38:31
I wish I could, I could, I could bring Stanford Wong, real name John Ferguson, from behind the cur- from the curtain like, uh, Marsha McCluan in Annie Hall, and he'd be like, "I heard what you said about your teaser."
38:40
[laughs] "You know nothing of what you speak." Uh, Paul Carr's best bets. By the way, this is a tweet from Colin Murphy. "Great work closing in on 100 pounds. That is a heck of an accomplishment.
38:49
And for the record, I think you would make a fantastic horse jockey." [laughs] Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. There we go. I like that idea. Dude, I would pay big dollars to see that, you on top, [laughs] you on top of a horse.
38:59
I've, I've got- Paul Carr... it, it's for another show. I've got a whole, I've got a whole criminal mastermind scheme behind that one, Gil. Really? Yeah. Oh, okay. Paul Carr, uh, three picks in the Prem Saturday.
39:12
Arsenal win to nil versus Nottingham Forest plus 115. And then on Sunday, Liverpool laying the goal and a half at Burnley, and Man City, Man U over one and a half goals in the first half at plus money, plus 135.
39:26
Man City, Man U over one and a half goals in the first half. Chris Fallica, The Bear. Georgia minus three and a half at Tennessee. It's at four now. He still likes it. Memphis minus three and a half at Troy.
39:39
Delaware plus 10. He still likes the nine, although clearly not as much, at home, uh, in their game against Connecticut. And then the South Florida, Miami under. He got 57 and a half. He still likes the 55 and a half.
39:51
From Chris Fallica in College Football. Uh, by the way, two segments with Chris, much better than one in terms of just having some elbow room to talk about other stuff in college football. Yeah.
39:59
I, I never want anybody to feel rushed. Apparently he was feeling rushed. I always feel rushed with him. Dr. Bob, who has not lost a bet yet this year. He's oppo Fallica. He's on the Vols plus four and a half.
40:11
Still likes it at the four right now that you can find on mainstream. But he's on the Vols plus four and a half, his best bet of the week on the show. And then Steve Fezzik. How about Stevie Fezzik coming out firing?
40:21
Yeah. Uh, in the NFL he's got the Broncos, Colts under 43 and a half. That is widely available. In college football tonight, Arizona, Kansas State under 54 and a half.
40:32
Uh, Houston, he's, uh, minus four with Houston, but he also is sprinkling on the money line with the Cougars as well. Uh, and then the adjusted season win totals, Clemson Tigers under nine and a half wins.
40:44
He's laying some juice on that, minus 160. Those are all your bets from the show today. And, uh- See, it's not a sprinkle if it's that way though, right? You're almost playing the money line- Yeah...
40:54
and sprinkling the, and sprinkling the spread.
40:56
Well, as the person who had the podcast where sprinkle was probably emanated from, I know everybody uses it now and acts like it didn't come from that, uh, shout out to Vegas Runner and Ace, and then we would put the E40 drop in, you are correct.
41:07
It's usually we say that on a m- on a dog. But he is putting an extra bit on the money line, I should say. Uh, it's all brought to you by G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
41:15
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41:46
Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. That's vsin.com/gbank. Three minutes left in the week. Kelly, I would like to talk about Survivor. All right. What are you smiling at? I... Just Fezzik, man. What?
41:57
He's just, he's, he's texting me screenshots of whatever movie he was describing at the end there, and then- Capricorn whatever...
42:04
he, Capricorn 1, and telling me exactly where to go in the video to- I had to do a promo... check out the scene. I thought I had to do a promo afterwards, and he's going on and on about Capricorn 1.
42:11
[laughs] And I'm, like, just waiting him out. I'm like, "Mm-hmm. Yeah, yeah, sure. Sure." And that's what happened. Yeah, you lied to Steve. You lied to him. Oh, I turned out I didn't have to do it. You lied to him.
42:18
He goes, "I gotta do a promo. Get out here." I thought, I thought I did. I swear I thought I did. Um, okay. You have how many entries in Survivor again? I have dos. Dos. Dos. That's two, ladies and gentlemen- Yep...
42:28
for those not listening in Spanish. You are going to play what on those two? Um, pretty sure... So I, one will definitely be on the Cardinals. Uh, that was the one that I played Broncos last week, and then I will...
42:40
I, I gotta decide. I'm either going safe with, I'm either going safe with... The other one I'm either going safe with Baltimore That sounds dirty just to say. I'm going safe. Yeah. Um, sounds like that L word, you know?
42:52
Yes. Not like that. Yeah. Um, I'm considering between the Ravens and the Cowboys. I've got six. Again, record low, got eliminated from Survivor week one. Record low in the six-year history of Circa Survivor.
43:07
Only 3.06% of all entries out, so a little over 500 out of 18,178. Um, I have six. I'm going the four teams again, which we've talked about.
43:19
Some combination of Baltimore, Detroit, Dallas, and Arizona, and this gets to the point, this is the m- the conundrum of having multiple entries, is that, and I've always said there's a, there's a point of, of redundancy, right?
43:33
Like, if you have 100 entries, you're still playing them proportionally the same way. Mm-hmm. And yeah, you might go longer if you're losing because you have more to begin with.
43:44
But ultimately, I just think that it, th- it's tough to decide. It's tough to allocate, right, with these six. Do I wanna go... You know, 'cause last week I did four on the Broncos. Yeah. And then one and one.
43:56
Do I wanna go Baltimore on those four and have the other two be the friskier ones? I don't know. I also don't wanna- There's also a, just a, a human,
44:08
uh, the ability for your brain to, to sort of organize this as you go forward. You don't wanna have too much variation.
44:14
Oh, dude, this is, this is where, this is the biggest point we didn't bring up as much when we- Yes...
44:18
talked about, like, when, when you were a lot last year, like, "I don't know what the correct number of entries is," this point is now more important to me than anything. And there's no correct answer.
44:27
There's not a correct answer. I, so I, I don't know. There's, there is no correct answer, and I don't know how I'm gonna divvy it out, but it will be be- between those four teams.
44:35
Prop Points next with John Hanson, followed by Money Moves with Stormy and JBT, and then Mitch and Paul later with Follow the Money. Good luck with all your bets this weekend, college and pro and beyond.
44:44
It's VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat rock music]
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
