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Sep 17, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network where sports betting lives. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
It is Kelly Bidlan, I believe you pronounce that that way. Kelly Bidley, as we like to call him. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter @kellybidley. Mm-hmm. E-Y on the Kelly.
0:29
Um, so much more than a producer, producer number nine. Um, still to come this hour, Paul Spohrer on Major League Baseball. We'll look at the, uh, September wins updated standings.
0:40
We'll look at the best record in baseball updated standings with Spohrer, get his opinion on the, uh, the Skenes/Merrill thing.
0:46
We, we ask this all the time because, again, the reason we do so, 'cause I know a lot of people are tired of that conversation, but there are literally l- uh, it's literally 12 games roughly left in the Major League Baseball season.
0:56
This is over on September 29th, so we're thir- uh, 12 days away from the regular season being over, and I think there's a bet on Skenes.
1:03
Now, we have apparently star- I don't know if we started this, but apparently we have guest-on-guest violence happening on Twitter right now between Falica and, and Weingarten on this subject. No. [laughs] No.
1:13
No, serious. I'm shocked. No, I know. It's crazy, isn't it? Um- With those two guys? No. [laughs] Listen, listen, Jason wants you to know that no matter what happens, he's gonna win money. I think he made that clear.
1:23
[laughs] Just wanna point that out. Uh, so we'll, uh- Oh, man... we'll talk to Spohrer about that. And Todd Wright will join us, uh, in about 15 minutes.
1:29
Todd Wright, who was the host of All Night with Todd Wright on ESPN Radio back in the day, uh, which was so groundbreaking at the time.
1:36
When I used to, uh, slow jam at KMEL, uh, Kelly, I used to roll back home at 2:00 A.M. through the streets of San Francisco, and I would stay in my car until 4:00 A.M. listening to Todd.
1:46
He was so good back in those days. Can't wait to have him on. Yeah, he- Yeah, he's gonna talk fantasy. He has a fantasy football podcast. He has a Survivor podcast. Yeah.
1:54
So we'll talk both with him, but I have a bunch of fantasy questions 'cause there's a, there, there are, has there ever been a year with more huge injuries to big players? Cooper Kupp and Nacua. It's wild.
2:03
Deebo now and, and CMC in San Francisco, A.J. Brown, obviously, in Philly. I mean, there's so many, uh, so many, you know, who do you pick up kind of questions.
2:13
And then there's broader ones as well, which we'll get to, which I know he, he enjoys talking about with fantasy. Th- those are, like, the bigger ones.
2:18
I, I know neither, neither one of y- neither you or I play season-long fantasy anymore. Not anymore. I, I loved it. I still love it.
2:24
It's just one of those, like, man, you've got, what you just mentioned, the injuries, right? Oh.
2:28
Like, on these Tuesdays, whenever that waiver wire opens up, whatever free agency opens up, like, you gotta be sitting there at your computer and ready to pounce, or else, like- Oh, yeah...
2:39
you're, you're a- you're, you're behind, and that's never a good feeling. I, I lo- I loved it, but at some point you have to shed some things in your life. Yeah.
2:47
But I'll, all my buddies, man, they are, they are locked in still. Yeah, absolutely. They are locked in, and so Todd Wright will help us with that. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, you know what that means.
2:55
It's time for NFL power rankings. [upbeat music] Plug it in. 107.7 The Bone. It is 107.7. Did I get that right finally? I don't know why you c- I, [laughs] it started with me going with- [laughs]...
3:12
uh, the one down in West Palm that I grew up on, 103.1 The Buzz. I have done more for The Bone than The Bone has done for themselves. But, yeah, but yeah, I think you were trying to remember the ones from D.C., right?
3:21
No, no, that's San Francisco. Oh, okay. D- D.C. was, uh, DC101. [laughs] That's the one that Howard Stern used to be on. Yeah, yeah, I was gonna, I was just gonna ask that. I was like, "Is that the Howard Stern one?"
3:30
DC101. A great call letter to those, or a great, great sort of moniker, that is. All right. Um, this was interesting. I don't know if you found it as interesting as I did. I did, yeah.
3:39
Because after week one you have your, you know, you have your pre-flop ones for the whole off-season. Then after week one, all right, just, you just don't wanna go crazy with it.
3:47
We, this has been fascinating because so many of these teams that I had the top lost, and so, again, this is, the purpose of power rankings ought to be, and some people do this mathematically.
3:58
For the purposes of this show, Kelly and I are just doing it sort of just in our head.
4:03
Um, this is about giving yourself guardrails and not trying to overreact too much to what we all have to prevent, which is recency bias, right?
4:13
You, you tend to value what you saw last more in, in our stupid, flawed human brains than you ought to. That will help you, these power rankings will help you sort of keep that in check. At least that's the point.
4:26
So Kelly, even though the 49ers lost to the Minnesota Vikings and now are injury-riddled, uh, with Deebo out, with CMC, with Christian McCaffrey out, I still have the 49ers as the most talented team in the NFL.
4:38
I kept them at one, and I kept the Chiefs at two, because, again, Patrick Mahomes, uh, hacks the entire system that is the NFL. So 49ers one, Chiefs two. And even though they lost to the Raiders,
4:50
the Ravens shoulda won that ballgame against the Raiders. They dominated on the field. I don't know, that's another game. Like, how did they lose that? How did you manage to lose it?
4:57
I still have the Ravens at number three. Now, what's even furthermore interesting, [laughs] I think, for myself in that is- I think, I think that's the, that's the only team...
5:06
This is all interest, a very interesting exercise this week because I think we each had those two, those three teams, one, two, three in some order, and it was, okay, well, what do you do? Two of the three lost, right?
5:17
And the Chiefs barely, barely got away. I, I moved Ravens down further, but, but yeah- Okay... interesting. But look, i- there's even more to this. The Lions lose, but the Lions s- like, outgained- Yeah, yeah...
5:29
the Bucs by a million. I have them going up to four. Yes, Lions fan, I, Lions fans, I have you at four. And then the Bengals, who lost to the Chiefs but shouldn't have. Yep. I don't think. I put them up to five.
5:43
Like, literally f- uh, literally four of those five teams lost in my top five. Well, and the Bengals, so the, the Bengals are the only one I'll, I'll say, like, you had to move them up, right?
5:53
Like, no matter where you had the Bengals in your power rankings at home- Yes... a week ago, even- That's right... whether it's, whether it was four or 14, right, Gil, you had to move them up even with a loss. Yeah.
6:05
And now I have two new entrants, two new entrants in my top 10, and they soar to six and seven, which are the Texans and the Saints respectively. They were just outside of my top 10 last week. They go to six and seven.
6:16
The, the Texans were 11 last week. Uh, Texas is just a good football team, and they deserve to be six. The Saints, who I'm a believer in, I know a lot of people are still skeptical- Hmm...
6:26
but Aaron, Aaron Schatz called this in the off-season. I have the Saints at seven. It's one thing to beat the Panthers with Bryce Young. It's another thing to beat the Cowboys- Yeah...
6:33
and that talented defense on their home field, uh, on that turf. So the Saints are seven.
6:38
Now, what happens is, what, what, uh, what goes down at eight, nine, and 10 for me, I drop the Cowboys, or as we wrote up on the screen here, the Cawoys, I drop them to eight. I know you love it when I call that out.
6:50
[laughs] You're a very big fan of that, I can tell. Um, the Cowboys are eight for me. The Eagles drop all the way to nine. So both of those teams for me dropped four spots respectively.
7:00
And the Jets, even though they won, drop one spot to 10, because I'm starting to worry that they're- Yeah... like, okay, get 'em...
7:09
I, as I said, if they get any modicum of quarterback play, and they're getting exactly a modicum, no more, no less, from, uh, from Aaron Rogers. So the Jets are 10 for me.
7:19
And so that's a, that's a top 10 which seems very strange when four of the top five and six of 10 lost the previous week. Yeah, it does. Wait, who am I missing now?
7:36
[laughs] Well, let's flash yours up on the screen. No, no, no. I'm trying- Yeah. I keep playing the game of, uh, what team, uh, 'cause I have the Bills in there. You probably have the Bills. You don't have the Bills.
7:44
I don't have the Bills in there. Bills are just on the outside. Yeah, but who did you have that I don't have? All right, anyways, uh, Cowboys go to number... Oh, you had Jets. That's who it was. Yeah.
7:52
Cowboys go down to 10 for me. Yeah. I'm gonna start at the bottom just because I have a little bit, uh, like you just, uh, left with. I- Jets are just on... I, I moved them out.
8:00
They are just on the outside looking in for me now. I think the Cowboys are still at 10. Still too much talent there for me.
8:06
I think this is a very interesting game coming up this week though, uh, with them playing the Ravens. Saints, I...
8:12
You know, it might only be two weeks, and I can say whatever I wanna say, but man, when you've got all these teams that we think are supposed to be good teams in the NFL stumbling, uh, stumbling over themselves, like the Saints are, I...
8:23
They've put, uh, put together two very impressive weeks. Yeah. And I can't really argue against. So they might- If you don't, if you don't have them in your top 10 at this point, you're probably- Yeah, I mean, look...
8:31
yeah. They're down, they're further down for me. Yeah. Do I, do I believe in them long term? I'm not sure. Yeah. But through two weeks it's very hard to completely ignore what that team has done.
8:40
So up to number nine for me. Like we talked about, Bengals, I think you have to move up. Just depends on how far you wanna move them up, where you had them a week ago. Uh, I have them at eight. Bills at seven.
8:50
Um, I still think that was an impressive win going into Miami and get- getting that done last Thursday. I moved them up to seven. When I, I... Like, you know I'm a big fan of the Bills.
8:58
I think there are serious question marks about this team, and getting off to a 2-0 start with wins over the Cardinals and Dolphins, very impressive. Could easily make an argument to have them higher.
9:06
Uh, Ravens I dropped. I dropped to six. I, I think there are concerns for me with this team right now. Um, how they're utilizing Derrick Henry out of the back field. Offensive line question marks.
9:17
Defense isn't quite as good as last year. Um, I, ma- I, just, I think a couple odd games so far. Like you said, should've won. Why didn't they win that game? Like, there is just...
9:26
Lamar Jackson at the end of these games I don't trust. I, I have more questions right now with the Ravens than I thought I was gonna have. So down to six they go for me. The Lions at five.
9:36
I think as I'm looking at this right now, I'd like to reverse Eagles and Lions. I'd like to have Lions ahead of Eagles. I, I still believe, though, the Eagles are that good of a team.
9:44
I think they're right there in the NFC race. Um, that was a really ugly performance last night. I don't think I'd drop them out of my top five, but it'd be Lions, Eagles, four, five for me.
9:53
Texans fly up to number three, and the question I keep having every week I fill this out, Gil- [laughs]...
9:59
is are the Texans the best team in football, and I'm just scared to go there, uh, th- this quick, 'cause I think they are that good offensively and defensively with some of the pieces that they brought in this off-season.
10:10
I mean, how s- some of these younger guys continue to develop. Nico Collins obviously we talked about a lot yesterday. Uh, 49ers two for me, Chiefs one. I, I didn't...
10:17
You know, losses by the Niners, I'm kind of still with you. Uh, the injuries are racking up. That's not good for them.
10:22
But the way that we pr- approach these power rankings, we kind of always have a case of, you know, is it now or is it looking far ahead in the future? That roster's still far too talented. So Chiefs one, 49ers two.
10:32
So a few things here. One, so our biggest disagreement is on the Bills and the Jets. I have the Jets at 10, you have the Bills at seven. Yeah. I have the Bills out. You have the Jets out.
10:40
Um- Jets are 11 for me [laughs] as we say, like, every week though. Yeah. Like I literally- But, uh- I had the Cowboys at 11 initially. I had to move them back.
10:46
I think, I think the other thing is when you talk about top 10 you have to ask yourself who would you put in otherwise. And there's honestly not that many other candidates. Like the league kind of- That's a good call...
10:57
the league kind of falls off a cliff shortly after the top 10, where you can't justify anybody.
11:03
And then the, the one thing you brought up that I, that I, you know, we didn't really seize on when we were going on the Nick Sirianni rant early is the Eagles don't look good to me, period. Like their best play...
11:14
You know how I say the Bills best play is Josh Allen tucking it under? Yeah. The Eagles best play, without A.J. Brown anyway, is Hurts running. Uh, yeah.
11:21
And I just f- I just feel like they have no pressure on defense on the opposing quarterback. They just don't look that great to me. I hear you. I, I think I'm a bigger fan of A.J. Brown than about anybody on the planet.
11:34
I think that is- Yeah... a different team when that guy is out of the lineup. Yeah. That's why I br- I bring him up. Packers, Falcons, Steelers is what the odds tell us we're missing. Packers, Falcons, Steelers? Mm-hmm.
11:44
Yeah. We're not missing any of those. Sorry. We're not. Todd Wright, Fantasy, next. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Back on A Numbers Game, live at Circa. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin on a, uh, Tuesday morning. Still with a Nick Sirianni fallout. Let's, let's do a little change of pace.
12:10
We haven't had this gentleman on in a long time. Yeah. And that is our oversight, not his. Uh, I always introduce him by saying, and I mean this, uh, he is the greatest sports talk radio host there ever was.
12:20
I will not be debated on this subject. Uh, when he used to host All Night with Todd Wright back in the, uh, the halcyon days of ESPN Radio. He now has a couple podcasts. One is the Todd Wright Fantasy Football Podcast.
12:31
The other is his Survivor podcast, which we'll get into in this segment as well. Uh, he won fantasy leagues, I know, uh, 2021, 2023. He also is a commissioner of fantasy leagues, which he rules with an iron fist.
12:43
Ladies and gentlemen, it's the great Todd Wright courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Todd? Thank you for the praise, Gil, and thank you for the iron fist reference. [laughs] I really appreciate that.
12:53
It's you and Khrushchev. You guys have a monopoly on it, the both of you. [laughs] Thank you. Yes. [laughs] You're very, very, very welcome. Uh, let's, let's start with... Uh, c- can I start with, uh, just sort of the...
13:05
Let's do the, the, the basic first, which is all of these injuries. I don't wanna be prisoner of the moment. Has there ever been a year with more injuries to big-time players this early?
13:17
And then specifically, what do you do about Deebo and CMC in San Francisco? What do you do about A.J. Brown in Philadelphia? What do you do about the Nacua cup injuries in Los Angeles?
13:29
There probably has been a bigger year, but we're living in the moment. We wanna make it feel worse than it actually is, and we actually have to do something about it.
13:39
So like you brought up how Survivor, and I know we're gonna talk about that, there was, a, a, two years ago, it was as bad or worse based on some of the data.
13:50
So my first reaction is, as I talked to you guys in the last 24 hours, this was why your draft had so many rounds.
13:59
Your replacement for, say, a Cooper Kupp should be someone you already had on your team that you drafted two, three, four weeks ago and didn't cut for some reactive reason, uh, after week one.
14:14
I'll give you just one example, 'cause I was very invested in Kupp this year. Loved the results week one.
14:21
Now I'm scrambling, but I just slide Jamison Williams into his spot for week three because I drafted Jamison Williams in a mid to late round to take that risk.
14:34
Um, keep this in mind, Gil and Kelly, on fantasy football, like we saw last night. Loved all the Sirianni talk, by the way, so far today. [laughs] We saw last night the Eagles don't have presumably a next man up for A.J.
14:47
Brown, right? For those that rushed to pick up Dotson, what'd you get? The great thing about fantasy football is the Eagles had one group of players to pick from last night.
14:58
As a fantasy owner, you have 32 to pick from to replace A.J. Brown. So you have a bigger group to try to find that player if you didn't already draft him.
15:11
Yeah, Kelly put together a nice little, uh, list of players, quarterback, wide receiver, running back, and tight end for those watching. Uh, all these players perhaps available. Yes. [laughs] Perhaps. Yeah.
15:22
[laughs] I was, I was, I was amused by that, Todd, when, when some of these fantasy services are like, "Available in 75% of leagues." It's like, what?
15:29
What league would have these guys available in that, uh, in that high of a percentage? Let me, let me ask you some, uh, some macro stuff. One is, um, tight ends.
15:39
Tight ends with, with just complete lack of production in the first couple weeks of fantasy football. What do you, what do you do about that? Targets are way down.
15:48
It's kind of, kind of inexplicable, but you had a tight end philosophy I remember a couple years ago already. Well, this is my iron fist- Yeah... which many people have disagreed with.
15:58
I eliminated the mandatory tight end in all my leagues 10 years ago because I didn't feel there were enough worthy people on a week-to-week basis to play that position to justify it.
16:11
And honestly, Gil, and I'm sure you and Kelly feel this way, there are certain questions you get from great listeners on a regular basis, and you just roll your eyes, not because of the listeners, but because of the question.
16:23
So the questions that I have eliminated over the last 10 years once we get to bye weeks is, "Hey, what do I do at the tight end position?"
16:32
And my first response is, "Well, if you had eliminated the mandatory tight end, we wouldn't be wasting our time on this."
16:38
Because annually, there's only a handful of tight ends that put up the equivalent of wide receiver one, wide receiver two, wide receiver three numbers, and tight ends, including Travis Kelce, off to a very slow start this year.
16:51
And even an Isaiah Likely, who many jumped on on week two waivers trying to get the bump off week one, didn't see it in week two.
17:00
If you had to break down by percentage fantasy football success, draft, um, waiver wire, trades, give me the pie chart of that. Uh, w- okay, so my, my fantasy title last year,
17:16
uh, I think I won it with how I drafted in the first six rounds. Like, Aiyuk was a sixth-round pick.
17:22
McCaffrey at number one overall when most didn't want the, the spot or took Justin Jefferson, and there were good picks in between. But I picked up Kyren Williams twice on waivers 'cause he got...
17:34
I, I let him go and then got him again after a, a week in advance from him coming back being hurt. Picked up Stafford and Love for the postseason run when I needed a quarterback after mine went down in Joe Burrow.
17:47
So I'll say it's, it's 60% of your draft, mostly at the top of the board.
17:53
It's 20% to 30% in how you work waivers, in finding players to help you on either an every so often week or finding a consistent starter on waivers like many found years ago when Alvin Kamara was a rookie, or last year with Kyren Williams when we knew he was going to get that workload.
18:13
And honestly, Gil 10 to 20% is just luck. That's it. Because that factors in, obviously, to picking against the line, picking totals, picking futures. You have to factor that in here in fantasy as well.
18:27
All right, I'll, I'll ask you this last fantasy question on the way out 'cause I wanna talk Survivor, but I've asked you this before, but, but [laughs] I want a refresher.
18:33
If someone sends you an offensive trade offer in fantasy, do you, A, ignore it- [laughs]...
18:41
A, ignore it, B, uh, berate him publicly in the chat room of, of said fantasy league, or three, send him back an equally offensive trade offer?
18:54
It's three, and you know with the value of nine seasons of my fantasy football podcast, which amazingly, Gil, I've done as many seasons of this fantasy podcast as ABC ordered for The Love Boat- [laughs]...
19:06
and NBC ordered of Seinfeld. [laughs] So I feel, I feel- Just as good as Seinfeld... very validated. Yeah. Uh, I feel very validated that I've gotten as many seasons as Captain Stubing and Kramer.
19:17
[laughs] So I do three, and then I use the bad trade as material on the podcast to shame the person that proposed the bad trade to one of my listeners. I like it.
19:30
By the way, I had no idea The Love Boat was only on for nine seasons. It feels like it was on for 15. [laughs] Yeah. I, I was so that guy, by the way. Would always make the bad trade, guys.
19:38
It was all the appearances of Charo that threw you off, Gil. [laughs] That's what it was. Charo and Dennis Cole. They showed up every- Yeah... three weeks for some reason. All right, uh, Survivor.
19:47
I know you have some, you obviously have the fantasy football podcast. You also have the Survivor podcast, um, available where all podcasts are distributed. You have thoughts about week three. Who are you considering?
20:00
I even asked you. Yes. I said, this is real time stuff for your listeners.
20:05
I said to you after I recorded the podcast yesterday, and I use a lot of what you and Kelly talk about on A Numbers Game on the podcast, and I said, "Gil, top five Survivor plays early look this week."
20:17
And I ran down Jets, Bucs, Bills, anti-Miami play, anti-Carolina play. And you said, "Oh, I think the Bengals are going to be top three." So back at you. I mean, Gil, where's the, where's the numbers?
20:31
I have them right here. 4,895 people in the circuit pool are saying to you, are you crazy thinking the Bengals are going to win- [laughs]... even if it's against Washington?
20:42
Do you really feel that they will be that high of a play after what they've done the first two weeks and just how toxic things look with, with Jamar Chase, with T. Higgins, the, the bad penalty on the fourth and 16?
20:55
We know the Bengals are better than, than a zero and two team, but do you really want to put your investment in them this week? I don't have them as a top five play, but- Really?... do you think they're a top three?
21:06
I think they're a top three. I said earlier, I th- I've got, now that, now that the Pan- Panthers have made the shift at quarterback- Right...
21:13
I feel like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who would've played obviously the Panthers twice, once at home later, I think they come back into play this week. I think the Browns- Yeah...
21:22
are a play, and I do think the B- [laughs] the Bengals, the part of that calculus- I know what Todd's talking about, though. Yeah...
21:28
but, but, but the part of the calculus that you left out is that I am a self-hating Washington- [laughs]... Commodes fan. Yeah, you are. So obvious- so obviously, I think the Bengals are a top three pick, yeah.
21:37
Yeah, Kelly seems to be with me that, uh, there's, it's like in fantasy, where from a previous year, if you have a player that let you down, there's scar tissue that lingers into future years.
21:48
And when we see what the Bengals did in week one, even just talking Survivor two weeks later, we're unwilling to go back to that.
21:57
So that's my emotion after the Bengals knocked me out, as it's your emotion against Washington. Although I am a big believer in Jayden Daniels, especially from a fantasy standpoint, and he has treated me well.
22:10
One more thing on Andy Dalton going in.
22:13
Back to fantasy, I see Adam Thielen available in 75% of Yahoo leagues, and with Andy Dalton out there, that's some value on the waiver wire, just as Carolina suddenly might not be an anti-play in Survivor. I like it.
22:27
Good call. Yeah. When, when, when last seen, Adam Thielen was wide open and not getting a pass from Bryce Young, that's for sure. Com- combined age of those two, roughly 87 years old. [laughs] That's right.
22:37
Todd, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Love you guys. Thank you for having me on. The great Todd Wright, love you back, man. Uh, right here on A Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:46
Paul Spohrer on baseball next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Nobody knows football like VSiN, and for a limited time, you can get your first month of VSiN Pro for just $9.99. Sign up now.
23:00
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23:12
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23:23
Go to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up now. That's vsin.com/subscribe and become a better bettor. Live from Circa, I'm Radio's Gil Alexander. I love when people say that. [laughs] I'm Radio's Gil Alexander.
23:41
This is, uh, Radio's Kelly Biblin. Y- you're doing a lot of moving and shuffling over there. We're gonna have to take things away from you. Well, 'cause I'll tell you- You got water, you got papers.
23:48
Now he feels the need to grab them now that they're in front of him I can't, I can't. Leave my toys alone. [laughs] Uh, this is, uh, we get tweets, we get texts. Can I read texts? Sure. Who's texting?
23:57
Uh, I love when, when- Who's telling us we're doing our job wrong today? No, no, no one's telling us we're doing it wrong. [laughs] No, what I love is this, I'm super humbled by everybody chiming in.
24:04
Fezzik, of course, live texts the show all the time.
24:06
He says, uh, "Over under Survivor winners," listen to this, his prediction for Circa, now that there are once again out of 14,000- Out of 14,266 entries, uh, there are only remaining 3,877.
24:24
It's just incredible. Again, 72.82% gone. He says, "Over-under survivor winners right now, I would say only two at the end of the season." Only two winners, he predicts. Hmm. I was gonna bring that up with you yesterday.
24:38
He says, "And it could be decided before week 20," which gets back to our conversation about should you care about- Yeah... your Christmas plays? Yeah. Well, uh, this is from, this is from, what's it?
24:49
I mean, but, like, like, like y- there's a difference between caring and not caring, and being aware. Like, you have to be aware of how few teams play on Christmas. Yes, you do.
24:58
Like, you can't just say, "I don't care"- No, you can't... but, like, without having the back of your mind- No... which teams play. I don't, I don't think he's saying that. I'm just saying he, it's a possibility. Yeah.
25:06
Uh, I think getting back to our conversation yesterday about kickers, and this unbelievable stat that not our Jeff Schwartz, but a listener, Jeff Schwartz, uh, tweeted us, which is, besides the Justin Tucker 0 for 2 from 50 and beyond- My mind is blown still...
25:19
which is blow- Yeah... which is just mind-blowing Yeah... that the rest of the NFL kickers aggregate 35 of 37, besides that 0 for 2. So if you throw in the 0 for 2, 35 for 39 from behind, from 50 plus yards.
25:33
And, uh, I was saying yester- uh, I don't know if I was saying this yesterday, I was saying on Twitter yesterday to somebody, in 1982, when Mark Moseley of the Washington Redskins won the NFL MVP, he had, he hit a, he, he converted a then mind-blowing, if we may use that expression again, 23 consecutive field goal attempts.
25:54
I think it was carried over from the previous season. So he didn't miss, but 23 in a row was considered just unbelievable, give this man the MVP. Ask me how many he, uh, made from 50 plus. How many, Gil?
26:05
That would be zero. [laughs] And my mishpucha, Chrissy Andrews, who runs the South Point Sports Book, he texts in, Jan Stenerud, the first kicker in the Hall of Fame, 77 of 150 from 40 to 49, 17 of 64- Wow...
26:22
beyond 50. 17 of 64. [laughs] I mean, it's like we have reached the future when it comes to this. Like, if you had told folks back then, "Here's what's gonna happen in the year 2024.
26:33
These are all gonna be chip shots," we'd have, eh, people would've been like, "You're crazy." Well, I mean, like- We're still humans. We can't be that much better...
26:39
like my original quote about quarterbacks, uh, Gil, "There are, there are more professional astronauts than there are kickers in the National Football League." Yeah. It's a very specialized job. Yeah.
26:49
Matt Brown definitely didn't say that before me. No. [laughs] Totally not. Oh, by the way, he texted in, too. Matt Brown live texted. He's, he's all over the fact.
26:56
He's like, he can't understand people who don't get that they should not have kicked the field goal. He's all about that strategy. He's like- What, does he still text you? We haven't talked about it in, like, an hour.
27:04
Well, no, he's- [laughs]... texted earlier, and he says, and he also says, "I don't care if the Eagles win every game the rest of the season by three touchdowns."
27:11
He says, "Last night should automatically void any Sirianni Coach of the Year tickets." Who's your favorite pro astronaut, Kelly, just out of curiosity? [laughs] That's a great call. I'm just curious.
27:19
[laughs] Uh, Paul Sporer joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line to talk some baseball with us from Austin, Texas. What's happening, Paulie? Hey, gentlemen. How's it going? Very good.
27:29
Paul Sporer, of course, from FanGraphs.
27:30
You have worn that Detroit Tigers hat now consistently, and I am looking at the standings, sir, and the Detroit Tigers, am I reading this right, are one and a half games out of the final playoff spot in the American League- That is-...
27:43
behind the Twins. Let's go. Absolutely right. Playing some amazing electric baseball right now. I tell you, there's nothing better than firing up the Tigers game.
27:53
It's competitive in September on a dog walk, on a brisk September night in, in Austin, Texas. It, it was amazing yesterday.
28:01
I mean, the one bad pitch by Reese Olson happened to be just the worst curve ball I've ever seen, hung to Bobby Witt, the last person that you can hang it to. Four-nothing.
28:10
I'm thinking, "Well, that's probably gonna be it." They come all the way back. They win it. Incredible. Twins lose at the same time that Matt Vierling hits the go-ahead, uh, run in, too. Clase was closing down the Twins.
28:22
So yeah, absolutely electric. I don't wanna spend the whole time on the Tigers, but I'm geeked. It's a lot of fun. Yeah, I like [laughs] I like how you said, "I don't wanna spend the whole time on the Tigers."
28:29
Uh, you kind of do, though. Um- Kind of. Yeah. I could. Yeah. I could. [laughs] We could. I could. [laughs] We're just gonna choose not to.
28:34
By the way, if I, again, for, for people who, who care about such things with, with so few games left, if you do look at strength of schedule between the Tigers and the Twins, um, Tigers have the third to easiest remaining schedule of 457- Right...
28:49
aggregate opponents win percentage down the stretch, and the Twinkies are, where are the Twinkies? They are more towards the middle, 501. So Tigers advantage there.
29:00
If the Tigers did get to postseason, last thing about your team, are they built for a win, a, a series win in the postseason or two? They could win a short series, I think, once you get in.
29:10
Um, you know, they have an ace with Skubal. Reese Olson, by the way, like I said, looked good outside of that pitch. He'll get another tune-up this weekend. So you'd have a really interesting one-two punch.
29:19
Brandt Hurter's been really intriguing. By the way, that strength of schedule thing is a little misleading, though- Yeah... because it ju- it has a White Sox series on it, and they bring it way down.
29:27
They go to Baltimore this week. They finish up in KC. Tampa Bay is gonna give you a fight.
29:32
You know, if they make this, they're gonna have to go through a gauntlet, but the last three are against the White Sox, so if you need, like, three to get in,
29:40
at least you can feel good about a potential sweep against the White Sox of all teams. Yeah, two more against the Royals, three more against the Orioles, as Paul points out. Uh, can we flash up, guys?
29:48
Sorry to put you on the spot here. The September most wins market, uh, real quick, 'cause the Tigers, I believe, are, are towards the top in that. But we have a log jam at the top. Mets and Phillies both at 10 and 4.
29:59
Mm-hmm. Remember at Circa, if you bet this, the tiebreaker is fewest wins, followed by best run differential. So right now the Mets win on run differential at plus 26. Guardians right there.
30:09
Guardians doing their thing, which they used to do in March- Guardians, baby... April, and, uh, May. They're at 10 and 5. Then it's the Padres at 9 and 4, and then your Tigres.
30:17
At nine and five with a plus 22, and they were competitive in this last month as well. So the Tigers, the sneaky freaky brothers sneaking in from the rear, as the great LL Cool J used to say. They are. It's amazing.
30:27
And, and the postseason as wide open as you ever remember it to be, right? Absolutely. And, you know, we saw it last year, and look at, you know.
30:35
And I, and to the credit of, like, the baseball community, I don't think too many people, folk- too many folks are surprised that Texas isn't that good this year, because it would've made s- it wouldn't have made sense to be super surprised that they're not that good, given how much we were like, "Wow, they made the World Series."
30:48
Yeah. That's nuts, them and Arizona. And Arizona almost fell off, too. They rebounded in the second half. But I'm not surprised that Texas fell back.
30:55
And by the way, I think they come back into the playoffs again next year. There's just, you know, kind of living in that middle right now.
31:01
As bad as it was for Jerry Dipoto to say it, it is actually a viable strategy, um, to kind of try to live where your projections are in the high 80s of your win total, and then let variance take care of the rest on a given season.
31:14
Again, the way he voiced it was, was kind of ugly and, and, and not the best, but it is a winning strategy. Some DFS for us today, for DFS players. Got a lot of interesting pitchers today that you can go toward.
31:26
You can always go to the, toward the high end, Snell, Wheeler. Uh, Luis Hill has looked great. Looked like maybe the IL stint was just a two-week rest off for him, 'cause he's come back looking good.
31:35
He goes out to Seattle. Cole Ragans against my Tigers. Again, the scrappy offense, quality ball the way they're playing right now, but I don't run away from the Tigers offense necessarily.
31:44
Then if you are looking to stack, we got a game in Brewers, and they, we have the best offense in baseball out in Brewers with those Arizona Diamondbacks. Um, also look at your Rockies.
31:52
Jordan Montgomery just hasn't been good this year. He's never really found his footing. Darren M- McCon, I do not know how to say this guy's name. I'm so sorry.
32:01
He's pitching for the, uh, Miami Marlins today against the Dodgers. If I don't know how to say his name, it's gonna be tough- [laughs]... for him to really pop off. I'm, I'm just saying. So yeah.
32:10
That, that checks out, yeah. That checks out. Uh, okay, you know how I'm gonna end this. I have to do this. Uh, AL Rookie of the Year, NL Rookie of the Year. I wanna get the Paul Spoor vote, uh, the weekly check on this.
32:21
Let's do AL Rookie of the Year. Is, do you, does, who gets your vote? Luis Hill, Austin Wells, Colton Cowser of the Orioles. So I'm, I, I'm on Hill. Again, like I was just saying, he came back after the two weeks off.
32:33
I thought he might be done, and they would shelve him as a starter the rest of the way, maybe give him one to three inning stints, make up sure he's tuned up for the playoffs or something. No.
32:41
Again, it looks like it was a rest. He's back on track. Another gem tonight I think would be helpful. His teammate Wells is right there. Cowser's been playing all year.
32:49
I do think it is a three, three-man race, but I'm gonna lean Hill. Hill plus 110. Um, Wells plus 160. Cowser has fallen off, uh, plus 230. He has not been getting it done lately. Those are the numbers at DraftKings.
33:02
And then National League Rookie of the Year. All right, here it is. Less than two weeks. I'm still on Merrill. You're still on Merrill? I, I'm still on Merrill. He's been there all year. Again, that's not against Skeens.
33:10
It's not his fault. If he'd have been there all year, he'd probably be running away with it, 'cause he'd be putting up a full season of what we've seen.
33:16
But the simple fact is Merrill's been there since mid-March when they were in Korea doing it, switching positions, being a massively impactful player. It's a tough race.
33:26
I don't envy those voters, but Merrill's my number one. But let's just say Skeens was available at plus 310 right now. What would you do? I'm okay getting a ticket on it. Okay. I don't think he's out of this.
33:36
That's- I really am. Okay. I am playing both sides a little bit, so I come out ahead no matter what if, uh, my, my boy Skeens- He's playing both sides. Yeah, I'm just playing both sides.
33:44
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget, after a numbers game, top of the hour, Money Moves with Stormy Bonitoni.
34:00
Stormy's guest today, once again, the great Jeff Schwartz. How about that?
34:04
Stormy and Jeff on Money Moves for a couple hours, then Prop Points with John Hanson, followed by Make It Rain with Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00 PM Eastern. That's, uh, VSiN's schedule.
34:14
Again, Stormy and Jeff right after Kelly and I have, uh, decided to evacuate the studio. Decided. [laughs] It is- It's a, it's a decision. It's a decision. Yeah. It is quite the, uh, uh... This is like a pit...
34:29
What is it? Pit lane, White? Is that what we call it? Oh, pit r- pit the... Oh, I see what you're saying. The pit crew, right? Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
34:34
It is like, uh, it's like changing tires in here real quick, getting us out and getting her in and settled and everything. Yeah. Well, at least it looks- We're not used to it.
34:41
That we, we, we had, for as much as we, we might have complained about past setups, uh, we had all the time in the world to get in and out of the D, that's for sure. [laughs] Well, we sure did. That we did.
34:51
Um, most of the, uh, the Twitter feedback is all, you know, is on Survivor. It's, it's...
34:55
The most amazing thing is we can talk about, you know, Sirianni, we can talk about a, any number of subjects, but daily, if you did the pie chart of, of the percentage of
35:06
Survivor-focused tweets, it's gotta be about 40% every day, no matter what we're talking about. Mm-hmm. And, and it's different opinions, right? Uh, uh, as far as the Bengals, Rich PSM says, "Bengals survivor.
35:18
Remember they crushed the Rams on Monday night without a win last year. They look much better versus Kansas City. Gotta be desperate. By the way, I too enjoyed Mr. Wright.
35:24
Maybe a long, late drive home after failed dates back in the day for All Night with Todd Wright."
35:30
[laughs] So he, he, um, Rich PSM believes that Cincinnati is a viable pick, whereas Chris Hartman says, "Gil, 78% of all Survivor knockouts have come at the hands of the AFC North.
35:38
Difficult to jump on Cleveland or Cincy this week." So both sides of that as well, and everybody's got, uh, got their takes on it.
35:46
So week three for those who are still alive in not only Circuit Survivor, but your Survivor pool, good luck to you here heading into what is never easy in the National Football League.
35:56
All you have to do is hit a 20-team money line parlay in Circa. That's all you have to do- It's not that hard... to win, to get to the f- promised land. It's not e- come on, 20. That, that one guy, uh- 20-teamer...
36:06
the one guy at Hard Rock, uh, hit, uh, hit all 16, uh, in week one. That's easy. Oh. Yeah. Sure. It's like 25 bucks into whatever, hundreds of thousands. [laughs] Should've bet more. Yeah, should've bet more.
36:17
There you go, Will. Um, okay, before we get to the segment that everybody loves, which is Kelly Bidlin's... college football guessing line segment for the week. Um,
36:28
I just wanna, I m- I mentioned this earlier, so I wanna pay off the tease. I bet a Heisman Trophy player. I, I bet a, I bet a, I bet a guy to win the Heisman Trophy at 1,000 to 1 yesterday here at Circa.
36:38
Any guesses as to who that was? [laughs] Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I'm asking you. [laughs] Yeah, yeah, no. Uh, let me just tell you, uh, uh, it was a- Not Jackson Dart... it was 1,000 to 1 when I bet- Not Cam Ward. It is, okay.
36:51
[laughs] I moved it, I apparently moved it from 1,000 to 1 to 80 to 1. Wow, bro. Let me just tell you how this went down. I tried to put a, uh, certain amount of money on it, and they made me wait for a good
37:05
seven to 10 minutes. Ooh, a real long wait for you. It was an eternity. It was at least five minutes. Uh- You did this here? Here, right after the show. After, after s- actually after I talked to you, I went to my car.
37:16
I'm like, "Oh, wait." You double backed? I was double back, that's right. Wow. So they- That's how much he likes it... they didn't allow me- He was all the way to the car...
37:23
by the way, they're probably saving me money, right? It's 1,000 to 1, it's not, probably not gonna win. Anyway, the player is Eli Holstein, Pitt Panthers.
37:31
1,000 to 1, I thought was a number that I had to d- to, I had to take a, a shot at. Uh, Eli Holstein, who by the- Quarterback?... who by the way, yes, he's a quarterback, Kelly.
37:40
[laughs] S- he play, he was at Alabama, he transferred. Um- Oh, okay... and by the way, has not declared whether he's in the tribe or not. I'm just assuming. Um, which is not- [laughs] Half the reason for the bet...
37:53
which is not really why I made the bet, I should point out. That's not why I made the bet. But, uh, Eli Holstein, uh, he's thrown for 300 yards in each of the Panthers first three games.
38:01
He has engineered two straight comebacks. Once again, the one, uh, a couple of weeks ago against the Bearcats in Cincinnati, and then this past week against a down two scores late against West Virginia.
38:12
How did he do this? But Eli Holstein brings the, uh, Panthers back to victory, 38-34 over West Virginia in, uh, in that rivalry. So the thinking here is obviously 300 a game, that's great, the comeback, spectacular.
38:26
Um, but Pitt's schedule is not the worst in the world. Like it's kinda manageable, and if Pitt can, uh, get themselves into an ACC title game, it's not the most outlandish thing in the world.
38:39
Anyway, that's the bet, 1,000 to 1 on Eli Holstein. Would I bet it at 80 to 1? Uh, probably not. You know what's the saddest part is I actually- Yeah...
38:47
I actually watched a very, very good chunk of that West Virginia Pitt game. Oh, it was fantastic. And I was not kidding when I just asked you about quarterback. I assumed he was, but yeah, I'd, I, I ne- You, wait...
38:57
like I watched that game- So you watched the game... didn't, didn't pick up on the fact, yes, that, that, that was the kid's name. I, I called it before. I'm like, "Eli Holstein about to win this game," and he did.
39:06
Uh, so that was the bet in college football.
39:07
And now, ladies and gentlemen, because I do an NFL guessing lines that Kelly has to endure for two hours, ladies and gentlemen, Kelly Bidlin and college football guessing lines. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah.
39:19
I was just trying to figure out how week one went. Yeah, apparently tracked that information right now, should've done that earlier. Week two, though, here we go. Week two of college football guessing lines.
39:28
Can I give a background on this once again- Please do... for those who are just tuning in for the first time? Yeah.
39:31
This, uh, this segment is borne out of the fact that, uh, when we were at the South Point, uh, Kelly was rushing in between segments to get a segment together, and quickly he was like, "Hey, uh, Gil, what was the, what was the line in that one college football game?"
39:41
And I go, "14." And there was this awkward pregnant pause. Uh, punching something into a graphic, I think, yeah. Awkward pregnant pause, and then Kelly says to me, "Plus or minus?"
39:49
And at that point I realized that while Kelly loves his NBA, loves his golf, bets 'em great, loves his football, eh, college football not so much. I love college football.
39:59
I just, uh, God bless everybody out there that tries to handicap it every single year with all these players moving all over the place. All right, you ready? Like your guy. By the way- Eli... Eli Holstein.
40:08
[laughs] Do, do you know how you did l- in the first week? No? You were just saying you don't- No, I was, I was trying to track it down real quick. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
40:13
We gotta k- we gotta keep his r- well, I don't know what we're- Yeah, I was gonna... I don't know what we're keeping because you're not making, you're just guessing a line.
40:17
Well, it's always kind of more like, uh, you know, who was further off, Kelly or the book. All right. Right? You ready? So it's that, yeah. NC State at Clemson, speaking of the ACC. Okay, big ACC game here I think.
40:29
Uh, Clemson was, uh, you know, highly touted pre-season, so was NC State a little bit. Clemson averaging over 34 points a game. You got NC State 0 and 3, uh, ATS so far. 3 and 16 straight up going back to their last 19.
40:44
You got McCall is doubtful. I, I, I believe that's true.
40:48
That's what I read yesterday at least, that Grayson McCall is doubtful, which sounds massive, 'cause he was actually a name that I know that plays quarterback in college football. Mm-hmm.
40:56
Uh, I'm gonna go Clemson laying 27 here. It's gotta be something big. I just don't know if I'm big enough or too big here. 27 from Kelly Bidlin on Clemson, and the answer is- Actual retail price...
41:09
[laughs] 20 and a half. [laughs] I'm like 27? Easy, buddy. 20 and a half, uh, is the price. So you, you sir, see tremendous value on the wolf pack- Yeah... of NC State is what you're saying. Yeah, absolutely.
41:22
Also, that graphic disagrees with what I just said about NC State, but okay. Does it? Oh, okay. Yeah. Maybe it- Wait, does that say 0 and 3 ATS? It does. We got cameras everywhere. It does. It does.
41:31
Okay, no, that's why I said that. That's why I said. Yeah, everybody- I thought I said one and three...
41:33
everybody should know, the biggest, the biggest cultural difference for us between the D and, and Circa you would think is the noise that's around us now in an antiseptic studio. We're just adjusting to the studio.
41:44
[laughs] It's just that everything is an obstructed view in here. We all bought obstructed view seats. Uh, okay, number two. You, you- I don't, I don't know how these guys do it at night...
41:52
you, you didn't do so good on that one. Yeah, okay, number two. Oh, by the way, the, we had, we have the, uh, the TVs for everything else up here. Speaking of Florida State. Okay.
41:59
We often at the D, 'cause I would look past you and the screens would be there, and ESPN would, you know, they'd, they'd fill their talk shows with the most ridiculous topic bars, right?
42:08
And the topics that they would discuss for entire segments. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This- We would often chuckle about it, not mention them on air often, but... this morning's might have taken the cake.
42:16
[laughs]Can 0 and 3 Florida State still make the playoff? [laughs] And they spent 15 minutes on that. Come on, man. Speaking of, speaking of FSU- Oh, man...
42:25
speaking of FSU, Kelly, an FSU grad, allegedly- Oh, it's brutal... allegedly. Cal at Florida State, 3 and 0 against 0 and 3. Hey, I graduated. My mother has that diploma in a safe somewhere.
42:38
It is not coming out of that safe, uh, because yeah, she, she, she likes, uh, she likes to hold onto that thing. Took five years, okay? It's not like I, I flew through there. Florida State- [laughs]...
42:47
15.3 points per game. Not a doctor also. Yeah. Uh, 0 and 3 ATS. Uh, I wanted to look this one up. You know the ATS plus/minus, right? How much- Oh, yes... above or, above or below? Yes. I like that.
42:57
They are minus 19.8, so they are falling below the spread [laughs] below the, uh, coverage by almost 20 points per game. That is impressive. Cal rolling, 131 to 10, uh, against San Diego State.
43:11
21-14 over Auburn, SEC win. I'm gonna take that as pretty impressive. Florida State's looked like absolute garbage. I'm assuming they were big favorites preseason this game. It's gotta be Cal favorite now.
43:22
I'm going Cal laying three in this matchup at Florida State at the Doak. Cal lay- walking in, laying three points. At the Doak. Dr. Bob's Cal Bears against Kelly Bidlin's FSU Seminoles. The actual, uh, spread is,
43:35
is Florida State minus two. [laughs] Sorry. Still favored. Wrong, wrong team favored is what you're saying. Can't, can't bet on that team, man. Uh- You cannot bet on that team right now...
43:43
speaking of wrong team favored, you see how I guessed the Saints were two and a half point favorite yesterday- Yeah... and the Eagles were favorites, and now it's the Saints- Yeah... minus two and a half.
43:50
It's like I can guess. To your right. It's like I can guess well. It moves to your exact point. Yep. Uh, and the last one here, Kelly, uh, so far not so good, by the way. Uh, last one, UCLA at LSU.
44:00
Okay, I got absolutely no idea here. I think what really threw me off was we were just talking about Wes Reynolds going over to this game, UCLA stomping Indiana last week.
44:08
So, uh, I'm going LSU laying 17, as I'm running out of time. I've got more written down, but LSU laying 17, actual retail price 24 and a half. Yeah. You were, uh, you weren't great there. Not, not so great there. Really?
44:20
Yeah. I feel like that's average for me. High expectations. Not so great. By the way, Indiana crushed UCLA, not the way you said it. You said UCLA crushed them. Sorry, UCLA got stomped by Indiana.
44:30
[laughs] We've done all we can do. [laughs] Stormy is next.
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