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Sep 19, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 19, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 19, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. If you're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. A Numbers Game where sports betting lives. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midland, producer number nine.
0:23
Sir, how are you? I'm doing well. How are you? I'm doing very well. Hey, we're kind of matching today. I didn't plan on it. Is that, is that greenish? Is that a green hue to that? This is, this is called a light blue.
0:32
Oh. It's like a Carolina blue. Never mind then. We're not. What do you got there? I got green. Oh. I got green. All right. It's wonderful radio once again for the folks listening. [laughs] What did we do yesterday?
0:42
What did, what, I was like, "This is wonderful radio." Oh, microphone stands. Oh, yeah, microphone. That's right. Yeah, microphones. [laughs] Um, on the show today, unscripted with Crack Man, Bill Krackenberg.
0:50
You know how that goes. That's hour number two. It's actually Zach and Crack. Zach Cohen, VSiN senior editor, here to talk football with us, college and pro.
0:59
He, of course, all over vsin.com and on every show here on the network. And then the Larceny Bourbon Smooth Bet of the Week.
1:07
And Kelly and I were tossing around what the, uh, Larceny Bourbon Smooth Bet of the Week was gonna be, but we landed on something. How about that? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. We found a good one.
1:14
Um, the re- what we initially thought we were going to have, but, um, let's just say the bet has moved along since yesterday, was the, uh, Tigers bet that I made yesterday to make the playoffs.
1:25
Um, the Tigers went into yesterday a game and a half behind the Minnesota Twins for the final playoff position in the American League with, again, less than two weeks left in the Major League Baseball season.
1:35
Actually ends next Sunday, not this Sunday, but next Sunday. Uh, Tigers went ahead and beat the Royals once again, and the Twins lost in 10 to the Guardians.
1:45
They took a four to two lead in the top half of the frame, and then the Guardians did what the Guardians do and they, uh, clipped them.
1:51
And so now that bet that was plus 450 yesterday, this is not going to be our Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week. Right. Yeah.
1:58
But the, but the bet that was plus 450 yesterday is now plus 140 on the Detroit Tigers to make the playoffs. Again, for those who jumped on this, here's where we are with that.
2:08
They are now a half game behind the Twins for that position, one game back in the loss column. The Tigers are idle today. The Twins play the Guardians once again.
2:18
If the Twins lose, Twins and Tigers are tied, and we lose, we, now the Tigers are we, uh, we would lose the tiebreaker.
2:27
Again, t- uh, the Twins won the season series seven to six, and MLB tiebreakers are head-to-head at the start. So we'd lose the tiebreaker, but at that point, each team would have nine games left.
2:38
Again, no matter what happens today, each team has nine games left. If the Twins lose, they're tied, and all the Tigers would have to do is eclipse the Twins the rest of the way by one game.
2:49
Um, obviously, if the Twins win today, uh, the Tigers would have to eclipse them by two games in the final nine, but the positive side to that is the Tigers have the single easiest schedule remaining in baseball.
3:02
Those nine games are, uh, three against the White Sox, three against the Rays. This is in reverse order, actually chronologically, and they begin that at Baltimore for three.
3:12
And if you're ever gonna catch the Birds, this was, this would be the time to catch the Baltimore Orioles because the O's, just to give a sense of how we, in our mind's eye in baseball, how we can per- perceive a team versus another, the Baltimore Orioles now have the exact same record as do the New York Mets, just to give you an idea.
3:29
Wow. So like we, we s- we seem to think of Baltimore as exalted, obviously they're different leagues, and Mets not so much, but they actually have the same exact record now.
3:37
Um, by the way, National League story, uh, I have a seven and a half to one on the Braves to miss the playoffs. On this show, we have an eight to one in the VSiN-wide contest, um, of futures.
3:48
We have the Braves at eight to one to miss the playoffs. The Braves remain two games behind both the Diamondbacks and the Metropolitans for the final position in the National League playoff race.
3:58
Uh, also again, in that case, those, those three teams have 10 games left, to be exact. Uh, all three of those clubs won yesterday, so that's where that stands.
4:07
So we're almost home with that, but there, obviously there's still enough time to botch that one because the Mets have the hardest remaining schedule in all of baseball.
4:18
Uh, they are going to play three each against the Phillies, the Brewers, and those Braves.
4:24
So this, the National League thing, our National League bet is, is I think further away from cashing, even though we have the two-game bulge, as opposed to the Tigers one, um, which I think we have a better chance of g- of cashing.
4:37
Um, but I hope to, I hope to cash both of them, quite frankly. Here's the, here's the Mets to, will they make the playoffs? The Mets yes is minus 265. The no is plus 220. I would not tell anybody to bet that minus 265.
4:49
Um, I like our position on the Braves obviously, but I would not tell anybody jump in now. And here's the Tigers.
4:54
Tigers now down to plus 140, so that is not our, uh, Smooth Bet of the Week, but that's the update after one day on the plus 450. [laughs] Nice. Yeah, it's, uh, nice, uh- And that's why you get in-... CLV, if you will.
5:05
[laughs] That's why you get in when you get in, right? Yeah. You see where the schedule is and you see what could happen, and you try to get, uh, uh, ahead of the, uh, the move.
5:12
Uh, there is Thursday Night Football tonight, though. That's the main thing. Week three of the National Football League begins. Special Numbers Game investigation reveals it is the Patriots at the Jets.
5:21
Number is six now. It was six and a half. I got in at six and a half, Kelly, uh, with a little extra juice. I bought- Oh, did you? Okay... I bought the, yeah, I bought the half.
5:28
Um, so it's like minus 122 where I have it, uh, on the six and a half. Uh, this is a game where I expect, by the way, the total 38 and a half, and that to me more than anything, big spread, low total,
5:43
um, sort of dictates, when we did guessing lines on Monday, and usually the first reaction is the best one, and I thought there was value on the Patriots at six and a half. I just thought that, that line is too big.
5:53
I still feel that way. I think we will get an ugly football game tonight. Yeah.
5:58
Um, Sean Corner over at Action, who does such a great job previewing games with some interesting stats, um, using six or more offensive linemen The Patriots on an NFL high 26 plays this season and running the ball on 25 of those when they use six or more offensive linemen.
6:14
Uh, Jacoby Brissett, in tandem with that, has been under pressure on 44% of his dropbacks this year, the second highest rate in the league, while the Jets have generated the highest pressure, uh, of opposing quarterbacks at 44%.
6:29
So put all that in the mix, and it's like the Patriots know how to do one thing and one thing alone, and they probably should do that one thing with that Jets secondary being so good.
6:38
Uh, but to complicate matters, you have some injuries tonight. Patriots left tackle- Mm-hmm... Vaderian Lowe, left guard City Sow, they're, they're out.
6:45
And so Kayden Wallace and Michael Jordan, not the same Michael Jordan, by the way, if you're scoring at home, not that guy, uh, but a different Michael Jordan, they will fill in.
6:52
And then on the Jets side, edge rusher Jermaine Johnson, uh, popped his Achilles. Not a good injury, ladies and gentlemen, I can tell you.
6:59
Hassan Reddick would be a wonderful, uh, sort of replacement for that, but- [laughs] If he was in the building, yeah... he's, he's still holding out. Uh, he's neither in the room nor the building. [laughs] That's right.
7:09
Uh, so you have, uh, uh, Leki Fatu, uh, who's also on injured reserve. So CJ Mosley hasn't practiced this week. He's a game-time decision.
7:17
Anyway, so that adds a little complication to it, but I expect a very, like 38 and a half, most people are like, "Oh, it's gotta go over." I don't think so.
7:23
I think you're gonna get a, a garden variety, restaurant quality, just thinking about cliches- [laughs]... uh, horrible Thursday night watch.
7:32
Yeah, I- And I think under is the on- Like, I, I'm taking the points with the Patriots. If you took the under, I wouldn't hate you either. Yeah, I have. I have no bets yet, uh, in the account.
7:42
Under, if I had to go anywhere side or total, it would be under in this game, though. I, I think the... My, my initial reaction with it, too, when we were doing guest alliance was this feels like a lot.
7:51
Patriots look pretty good, uh, these first couple weeks, as you were kinda, um, pointing out. I mean, obviously you're catching six, you're up to six and a half. There are a couple six and a halves available.
8:00
Um, you know, you're catching that many points and the total is short, those points are worth even more, uh, than what they would be with a higher total. So totally get that.
8:08
Man, it just fe- it feels like the, this Jets team is gonna put it together one of these weeks. I don't know what it is. And then- Yeah... their, their defense has struggled a little bit.
8:16
Mosley being out would be huge, and it looks like if that is going to be the case. Um, so I don't really know what we get tonight except I agree with you. I think it is an ugly Thursday night game.
8:25
We've seen these first-year head coaches struggle mightily on Thursday nights on the short week turnarounds. Um, so that will be interesting to see with Mayo, uh, there in New England.
8:34
But, um, yeah, this is, this is one that I will not be getting involved in. [laughs] Also, I, I chime in on this again because I, I don't know if you guys know this, but I, I popped a couple Achilles in my day.
8:43
And, um- No... I just, I find, again, I w- I just wanna update how ridiculous I find people on this. All last year I said, "Rodgers cannot possibly come back."
8:52
And there were quack doctors on Twitter and then some losers, "Oh, but Rodgers could come back." Clearly you now get that he could never have, which I was, like, screaming about last year.
9:00
Uh, and then this year, the sort of narrative early has been, "Oh, Cousins, uh, you know, and Rodgers slow to come back with their Achilles injuries."
9:06
Well, after the, after Monday night, nobody's saying a damn word about Cousins anymore and his Achilles, right? Right. Yeah, yeah. And Rodgers, it, it w- listen, Rodgers, he popped his Achilles week one last year.
9:18
Uh, Cousins did week eight, I believe. But the difference is they're almost five years difference in age, and that is the biggest factor in recovery, no matter what. Um, 36 years old, Kirk Cousins.
9:31
Rodgers about to be 41. So it may take a little more time for Rodgers, but it may not. Like, he just has to get over the mental hurdle of it. Well, like, in quarterback years, 36 is old. 41 is ancient. Right. Yeah.
9:43
Like, I, I've kinda thought these first two weeks, too, of like how m- how, how many people are having this reaction when, like, in fact, maybe it's just a couple old quarterbacks that haven't played that much football in the past year.
9:52
That's right. And, and, you know, by the way, speaking of that, can we just also say this? Like, Dave Canales was asked, this is all just a parenthetical aside, he was asked about Bryce Young.
10:00
He was like, "Hey, could he still be a franchise quarterback?" He's like, "Absolutely." [laughs] And I'm thinking to myself like- Not bad... maybe you should've played him in preseason besides one drive. Yep.
10:09
Like, uh, you kinda have something to do with this. And I know he stunk last year, but he was, like, shot of all confidence this year.
10:14
Anyway, um, by the way, Rodgers also, um, his completion percentage about 9% lower than expected according to Quarter- uh, Action, and his average intended air yards is just 5.4 yards- Mm-hmm...
10:27
downfield, the third lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks. That also kinda lends to an under, uh, tonight. And then if you want, uh, if you tuned in for punt rate news, this is your spot.
10:38
Uh, New England, third biggest punt rate so far, third highest in the NFL. The Jets, seventh highest punt rate in the National Football League. And by the way, both punters really good, too.
10:47
So again, but just back to the Achilles thing, it's, it's, you know, if the Jets are to falter this year, it's not gonna be because of that. Like, he, it will be okay, and in no world could he have come back last year.
10:58
Yeah. Now, I, I'm interested to see what we get tonight, uh, especially out of this Patriots offense, if they can kinda keep this going, you know. I, I mean, they've looked better than I expected- Yeah...
11:06
the first couple weeks, and been relying heavily on the run game, obviously. Uh, does the Jets defense slow that down? I, I'm not sure.
11:13
I, like, my initial thought was team total under on the Patriots, but no, I actually think I just look full game under, uh, instead of that, 'cause I, I don't think that the Jets offense has looked all that explosive or impressive, like you just talked about.
11:24
Also, listener had a great point yesterday, which is, "Hey, are we, are the, we this quick to forget about our pre-flop thoughts?" Like, this would've- Yes...
11:30
if you had mapped out Survivor f- you know, before the season started, this might've been a spot. But after watching these t- two teams for two weeks, I'm not purging- Yeah, I know... what I've seen.
11:43
You, you've got Adam Turnbull on the pod later, right? I do, yes. I know him, Drew Dincic both like the Jets. Oh, interesting. Okay. Zach Cohen, we'll find out what he thinks next.
11:50
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12:08
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12:17
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12:28
Go to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe, and become a better bettor. Gil Alexander, Kelly Vidlin. It's The Numbers Game right here at VSiN. We're live from Circa.
12:40
Uh, we'll read tweets as we always do throughout the show, but I just wanna read this one that, that they, uh, flashed up on [laughs] on this, on the second screen here. The guys back, uh, behind the, uh, the wall here.
12:49
Thank you, guys, for this. This is from LosVegas514. He goes, "Yo, I was listening to a replay of a numbers game. Did I hear that a young Gil played for Maplewood Football in Bethesda? I played for the- [laughs]...
13:00
Rockville Razorbacks. That's awesome. Were you the kid that blocked me in the back? LOL. [laughs] #smallworld #bobwarner.
13:06
This comes up because, uh, with all the praise we got for the, uh, for the Sirianni, uh, explanation, one guy was like, "Oh, I bet you didn't even coach Bob Warner." [laughs] Whatever.
13:16
And so I mentioned, I mentioned Maplewood. I didn't play for Maplewood, but Owen did. Owen who- Oh, okay...
13:21
Owen Wright, who, uh, was on the Ravens practice squad last year and is now on IR for the Ravens, he played on Maplewood, so we would go to all his games and coach it up. So that was that.
13:31
Well, [laughs] that was what that was about. Always great- He blocked me in the back... always great when you do figure out- Yeah... you played high school football, like in the same area. Yeah.
13:37
So we're like, "What year? What year'd you play?" "Were you the guy who blocked me in the back?" [laughs] That's awesome, Los Vegas. DC- Oh, that's all I did... DC football. I like it.
13:43
That's all I did was block people in the back. Uh, Zach Cohen joins us now. He's a senior editor at VSiN, part of the glue that holds this operation together.
13:50
You can follow him on Twitter @BettingOnX, which of course I refuse to call it, still call it Twitter, courtesy of aggressive guest line. How you doing, Zach? I'm doing well. I don't call it X either, by the way.
14:01
It's just my name. Yeah. No, I hear you. It's a good, it's a good Twitter handle.
14:04
Um, before we talk football, um, it's, the tennis is no longer stateside, so you, you know, when it was the US Open I could come on the show and say, "Here are my picks." Uh, it's in Thailand, on the lady's side anyway.
14:16
It's in, in Thailand and in Seoul, Korea.
14:19
Um, so for v- for subscribers, vsin.com/picks, every host, every guest, all of their picks in every sport is at vsin.com/picks, and I'm, I'm betting that, I didn't bet last week, but I am betting those two tournaments.
14:31
Uh, split a couple $2 dogs last night. Yue Yuan lost to Raducanu, but Podoroska got it done as north of a $2 dog for us, uh, over Siniakova. Are you betting either of these tournaments?
14:45
I've been betting a little bit, not as much. I don't like to bet on things I'm not awake for. I know that- Yeah...
14:50
that's a little crazy, but like if I like, you know, an opportunity to jump in live and get out of a play or something, I will look for it. So I, I just don't like to wake up to, to bets.
14:59
It's, well, you know, winners, losers, I don't like to wake up to, to results. Yeah. Oh, I wake up to results all the time. [laughs] In more ways than one, Zach, but that's a different show.
15:06
[laughs] Um, all right, let's talk about tonight's game, Thursday Night Football. What do you think about the Patriots and the Jets? Jets favored by six.
15:15
Yeah, I, I still really like the under in this game, even though it's, you know, really low at 38 and a half. I'd just be really surprised if this game ends up being high scoring in any way, shape, or form.
15:24
I think the Patriots, we've seen through two games they really wanna run the football. They're fifth in the league in run frequency. Uh, the defense looks really solid.
15:32
For the Jets, you know, I, I don't think they look great on either side of the ball right now.
15:36
But I think one thing is clear is that they're not taking a lot of downfield shots with Aaron Rodgers right now, and they're also letting him play, you know, at his really slow pace offensively.
15:45
So I think this is gonna be a game that is really low in scoring. Uh, for player props, I also kinda leaned into that with Rhamondre Stevenson over his rushing attempts.
15:53
Uh, I got a really bad number at that, at seven- 17 and a half. You can get that at 15 and a half now.
15:59
I know that they have some injuries along that offensive line, but I still think they're gonna try to run the ball, uh, after seeing, you know, what the 49ers and Titans did to the Jets' defensive line in the rushing game.
16:08
Would you, uh, take a flyer and look at that first touchdown? Rhamondre is plus 550 here at Circa. Would you take a flyer on that? He's the short shot, by the way. Yeah. I, I don't mind that at all.
16:17
I mean, I'm not gonna be playing that myself, but I do think that he has as good a shot as anyone. Yeah. Um, it does feel like an ugly under kind of football game. Now watch it be, like, this high-scoring affair.
16:27
But it really does feel- [laughs]... like that, doesn't it? Yeah. A- and it's just, it, it's gonna be an interesting game in general. I know, I know that there's...
16:34
You, you can throw out the history between these teams because the Patriots for so long had Tom Brady and the Jets were terrible, but it will be interesting to see if the Jets can, you know, cover in this game and just kinda, you know, go two in a row against the Pats, you know, both straight up and against the spread for the first time in forever.
16:48
I'm so glad you brought that up, because I do see people writing about this, and they're like, "The Patriots are like 17 and one- Jets... in the last 18," or whatever the stat is. Oh, no.
16:57
And I'm just like- Trends, people... oh my God. Trends. Oh. There's, there's sometimes they can be explained. [laughs] Like, come on.
17:03
You, can you, can you take it one step further and maybe think as to why that might've been? Um, yeah. Tom Bell- uh, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are not walking through that door. Um, okay, let's go to college.
17:13
You write frequently about the Heisman. Can we start there? What are your current thoughts about the Heisman? If someone wanted to bet that right now, who should they bet? I would still take Dylan Gabriel.
17:22
It's available at, like, plus 900. That was my pick in the off season.
17:26
Uh, I don't really think we've seen anything from, from him numbers-wise that would suggest he's not going to be a factor in it towards the end of the year. I know that there were some ugly wins early in the season.
17:35
Uh, they didn't beat Idaho or Boise State the way that you probably would've wanted them to. But if you just look at his overall numbers this season, they're still pretty good.
17:43
Uh, he finally figured it out, too, against Oregon State in a blowout last week. And I still kinda think that if he plays well at home against, uh, Ohio State in October, he's gonna win this award.
17:53
So I, I still think that's a really good number on him. Uh, Cam Ward's deservedly the favorite right now based on what we've seen so far.
17:59
But I don't think that the implied probability's there for him at, like, plus 450 or plus 550. Asking for a friend, uh, what do you think about Eli Holstein's chances at Pitt?
18:10
Uh, uh, he's putting up some insane numbers, and they've won two games that they had no business winning. Yeah. But I just don't think that they're gonna go this season winning, you know, nine or more games.
18:18
I think he's gonna have to do that in order for them to win. So i- that's really what's gonna happen. I- it's not a bad play. Like, in terms of Flyers this year, uh, there's not that many, so I don't hate it that much.
18:27
I will say I'm a little higher on Ashton Jeanty than I probably should be, because I, you know, wrote in our off-season college football guide that you should really never touch a running back, but I also didn't expect someone to put up the numbers he did in week one, and then go into Oregon and put up the numbers he did in a close loss.
18:43
I think if Boise State ends up being the group of five representative, Jeanty is gonna be right there in the conversation. Yeah, Ashton Jeanty with a cool six touchdowns to start the season, uh, in Boise State's opener.
18:54
Uh, all right, college football this week. It's week three in the NFL, but it's week four, I guess, technically, in college football. What do you like? Uh, I really like Arkansas plus three and a half against Auburn.
19:05
I think that, that a lot of people are kinda jumping on Auburn now because, you know, Hank Brown played pretty well stepping in for Payton Thorne last week. But they're playing New Mexico.
19:13
That's the third-worst defense in all of college football. I think if Thorne played, he probably would've lit them up, too.
19:18
I still don't really trust this Auburn offense to, you know, generate big plays, especially against an Arkansas team that I think is capable of taking away the Tigers' running game, which was, you know, incredible last week.
19:29
It really made life easy on Brown. I also think, you know, Arkansas' offense has looked great under Bobby Petrino.
19:34
I think Taylen Green has come in and added, you know, a nice dual-threat capability at the quarterback position. Uh, Jaquinton Jackson from Utah has been electric out of the backfield.
19:43
I just kinda think that Arkansas might be the better team on both sides of the ball in this game, and I don't think the fact that this is being played in Auburn is gonna be enough for them to overcome that.
19:52
All right, let's have, let's have another one in college football besides Arkansas and Auburn. Yeah, uh, this is gonna be an ugly one, but kind of interesting.
19:58
I, I think the over in Florida and Mississippi State, which is now 57 and a half, is something that I'm going to play. And it's less of a bet, you know, on the two offenses and more of a bet against the defenses.
20:09
I think both of these teams really struggle to defend the pass, and I think that, you know, for as bad as things have been with the teams this year, I, I do kinda trust Florida to score points against Mississippi State, whether it's Graham Mertz or DJ Lagway under center.
20:22
I think they're gonna be able to get it done. Same thing goes for Mississippi State. I think Blake Shappen, uh, has looked pretty decent for them even though they've been losing games.
20:29
And Jeff Lebby, obviously one of the best offensive coaches in the nation. So I think this is gonna be a really high-scoring game, and I do think that Mississippi State's pretty live.
20:38
I was hoping to get seven on it, but yeah, I, I'll be having my eyes on that, because I do think we're on Billy Napier watch. I think if he loses this game, he's as good as gone. Yeah, that's the speculation.
20:47
Florida and Mississippi State total 57 and a half, by the way. Graham Mertz is seemingly in his seventh year of college football when you bring him up. Um, are you in survivor, Zach?
20:57
I'm in different survivor leagues, but I'm not in the Circa survivor. In your Circa, uh, excuse me, in your survivor, pardon me, in your survivor league, how many entries, uh, initially were there?
21:08
Oh, God, I have no idea, to be honest. I, I think it was, like, 2,000. Okay. That's what it usually is. Yeah, it's, no, we're not talking big money here. Well, still 2,000 means, you know, means something. Yeah.
21:17
You, like, play it differently than if it were 20, right? Um, who did you, who are you thinking about playing this week? Or have you landed on someone? I'm still, I'm still thinking of going with the Raiders.
21:26
I, I, I know that, you know, they, they've, we got Bryce Young out of there now, but I don't really think that's going to be enough for, you know, Carolina to just suddenly turn it around.
21:34
I think Las Vegas is pretty solid football team, playing at home. So i- in a tough week, I think that's where I'll go.
21:40
By the way, I just want to, uh, point out on, on Twitter I was, you know, updating stats on Circa, and I, I mistakenly said that the 74... Excuse me, let me get this right.
21:52
I mistakenly said that the 72.8% of entries that were out in this year's Circa survivor was just shy of the record from two years ago, but Circa corrected me. It was 67.2% through two weeks two years ago.
22:03
So this is the biggest carnage through two weeks in the five-year history, the short five-year history of Circa survivor. Wow, okay. Yeah. Hmm. 72.8% gone.
22:14
Um, by the way, the mark to beat after three weeks if you're scoring at home is 74.7%. So it wouldn't take much carnage here in week three to actually eclipse that. Zach, appreciate it as always, man. Thank you so much.
22:27
Thanks, guys. Zach Cohen. Betting_On_X is where you can find him on Twitter. VSiN senior editor. We will come back. Um, we will talk many things, many things indeed, including, of course, Bill Krackeberger joining us.
22:40
Um, will they make the playoffs in Major League Baseball? And next, the Larceny Bourbon smooth bet of the week. That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:52
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa. Gil Alexander, Kelly Dinning alongside. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the feedback.
23:03
Best listeners in the game. I mean that. I mean that sincere. This is from RobertSB01. RobertsB1. I don't know how he broke that down. Roberts boy. Roberts boy. Uh, whoa, whoa, whoa. Gil said he has popped an Achilles.
23:20
How has he never mentioned that before? What am I gonna learn next? Kelly's more than a producer? That was kind of a joke, Robert. That's why I said it that way. [laughs] Um, Jimmy Lopez Fal.
23:29
[laughs] Uh, "My favorite part of ANG is betting the weekly over under how many times Gil subtly mentions his own Achilles injury.
23:35
My least favorite part of ANG is every time I try to tag Kelly, it wants me to tag Kelly Blue Book instead. I'm not trying to sell a car." [laughs] Yes you are, Jimmy. I wanna buy your car. That's pretty funny.
23:45
[laughs] But do, do people not get that that's why I was making the joke about it? I love when people regurgitate the joke back to you as if- I, I think, I think, I think everybody got it, yeah.
23:51
[laughs] As if the joke is on you. Uh, this is from Philip Morris. "I can't," uh, let's see here.
23:57
He says, "Oh, I can't find it on DK or FanDuel, but Baltimore to not make the playoffs," oh, the Orioles to, to miss the playoffs, "Is a little interesting to me.
24:06
Unlikely, but they do have Detroit, the Yankees, and Minnesota as their last three. I guess they need to make it close before I see something like that." Philip, I, I get it. Uh, if that is your real name, Philip Morris.
24:15
Uh, I get it that i- i- it's cl- I mean, I actually saw that, too, and I'm like, "Could Baltimore miss this?" They gotta shape up.
24:22
But it's one of those things we were talking about it yesterday where it's sort of like, um, the season is just short enough where they might just stagger in or stumble in, whichever we decided yesterday.
24:32
But they are like, they are the poster child of, of these clubs that are just like, "Can the end of the season get here quick enough?" But I get it, it is kind of tempting.
24:39
Um, Johnny Vegas talked to Crackman yesterday, was still not feeling well. Hope he can make it. He will be here. He will be here.
24:45
Uh, Jeff at, uh, Golf Tacos, uh, glad you in- Oh, he says he can't wait for Todd to break down, this is on the Megapod, on the Beating the Book feed, the Megapod today, Todd Wishnev, Will Hill, and me, guest Adam Chernoff.
24:57
He says, "Can't wait for Todd to break down the chaotic parking situation. Dan there, uh, Dan there near Heinz Field Nat." [laughs] That'll do a good Pittsburgh accent. Good yinzer.
25:07
Epic battle of undefeated teams in Pitt this weekend. Man. Dan there, in Nat. Bentley, "Uh, I thought Besom went down during..." Oh, we already read that one. Uh, unless we read that one as well. Let's see. This is...
25:18
Oh, no, we didn't. Uh, Bentley, "I thought Besom went down during my commute yesterday, but now I realize I must have blacked out from rage over Kelly's The Wire blasphemy."
25:26
[laughs] "The only contrarian opinion acceptable is season two is top two." That's exactly right. Uh, NC- Wait, wait, what? What's the end? I don't understand. What, what's he saying at the end?
25:37
The only contrarian opinion acceptable is that season two is top two. Why is that? 'Cause most people think season two sucks? I thought season two was one of the worst. Okay. Okay. It was the docks.
25:47
That was the dock season. Okay. Yeah. 'Cause one and four were just epic. Um, this is from NC I-95 Gambler.
25:53
He says, "I'm in North Carolina and don't have Detroit to make the playoffs available, but I do have the Twins to miss at plus 240. Any thoughts?" Plus 240's kind of- Mm... kind of right there.
26:03
We're gonna discuss next segment. Uh- I'm gonna throw a lot of these at Gil. Oh, okay. I'm gonna throw a lot. Ru- Russell Ambrose, "Two survivors I'm in offshore pick distribution for tonight.
26:11
Pool one with 6,000 participants left, 12% are on the Jets in Survivor." And the one he has, pool two, with 9,000 participants left, 15% are on the Jets tonight. Wow.
26:22
So Survivor players who are still alive, we're rooting for the Pats.
26:25
Yeah, I mean, as much as, like, w- when I say lean Patriots, I, I guess this means I lean heavy enough, Gil, I r- or leaned heavy enough early in the week that I never even considered this game for Survivor.
26:36
Yeah, like- No... it wasn't even a thought. No, not for me. Um, and last one here before we get to, uh, to our segment here. Scott No- uh, Scott N-O-Y-F-B,
26:46
um, "Check out the bottom of the 10th inning with the Mariners game. Oh, LOL." Um, okay, so c- a few things. The Mariners and the Yankees yesterday was, it was one of these weird nights.
26:57
It was a full slate of baseball yesterday, but for whatever reason, and I, I think it might have been scheduled this way, but it was se- seemingly was really odd, every game was done except for the Yankees-Mariners.
27:07
So the Yankees-Mariners was the only game being played for, like, three hours- Mm... it felt like last night. Uh, so everybody, the eyes were kind of on it. The home plate umpire was atrocious.
27:17
Like, the strikeouts he was calling, the balls were, the baseballs were, like, two inches off the plate. He's like, "That's a strike. I gotta go. I gotta call a strike." [laughs] Like, there was s- it was so bad. Man.
27:26
Anyway, uh, what Scott is referring to here is the bottom of the 10th last night, obviously, uh, the Yankees had, uh, not obviously, but the Yankees had taken a one-run lead in the top half of the f- of the inning, and then the Mariners had runners at first and third with nobody out.
27:39
Obviously, the ghost runner started second. They got a single first and third. It was J-Rod, Julio Rodriguez, was on third base. Um, forgive me, I can't remember who was up at the plate, but
27:50
the, the bat came, as he struck out, the bat came flying out of his hand towards J-Rod at third. J-Rod, to get out of the way, sort of, you know, went s- really, went more steps than you'd want to in foul ground.
28:04
He's like, "Oh, my God, the bat, uh, uh, uh." No way. But the ball, but the ball still lived. I did not see this highlight, okay. So they go right to third base.
28:10
They tag him out, double play, and of course, the Yankees end up winning. Just un- unbelievable ba- ending to that ball game. Where'd he hit the ball? He didn't. It was a strikeout. Oh, that's what I thought you said.
28:20
But, but- Okay, okay, okay... but, but that one fly. Oh, okay, okay. Got it, yeah, yeah. So J-Rod on third base- So he had to jump off... just for self-preservation, jumps off, but he doesn't jump off like, "Oh, duck."
28:27
So catcher throws to third? He jumps off and, like, kind of nonchalance it into foul ground after he got away. Yeah, so then the catcher, very, very aware, goes to third, out number two. [laughs] And they get out of it.
28:38
I don't even know what to, like... I, I think it's hard to complain about something happening that's just, like, a, it's a, it's a freak thing to happen in baseball. It is a f- it is a freak thing.
28:48
You, you- Like, I'm not gonna blame the catcher. No. Like, he did the right thing there. It's a, it's a heads-up play. Yeah, heads-up play.
28:51
It's a heads-up play, but it is also one of those things you watch, you're like, "Shouldn't they probably call time at that?" You know, it's kind of like- Right, yeah, yeah...
28:57
against the spirit of it, but nope, live ball. Yankees win. Yankees clinch a playoff berth. Tell your teammate to hold onto that bat. With that, Yankees clinch a playoff berth.
29:06
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, it is time for the Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week. And [upbeat music] yeah, Smooth Bet of the Week presented by Larceny Wheated Bourbon. Lock in a win and seize the night. Bardstown, Kentucky.
29:22
46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely. Kelly, I know that when you're drinking, you drink wisely and you think wisely in tandem. That's right. Uh, Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week this week, Cincinnati Bengals.
29:33
Um, I actually, am I allowed to say this? I actually bought it down to the seven, minus 122 on the Bengals. They're seven-and-a-half point favorites, reduced juice.
29:41
Um, the Bengals, they're not going 0-3 against this outfit at Paycor Stadium. They're just not. I am a Washington Taco Holders fan. Um, I love Jayden Daniels, but for as great as he's been, it's all been with his feet.
29:58
Uh, this is, this is an offense that has been consistent from 20, uh, from inside the 20s, uh, from 20 to 20. I- they just have not figured out how to get the ball in the end zone yet.
30:08
Um, they are giving up on defense, more importantly, 6.2 yards per play- Yep... are the Washington Commodores.
30:16
And Joe Burrow and the Bengals, after probably, uh, n- after the near miss against the Chiefs, a game they probably should have won, uh, had every opportunity to win, they are not going to let the Commanders beat them.
30:28
I think they blow them out here. I laid the seven. The Bengals are the Smooth Bet of the Week. Yeah, I, I think that Jayden Daniels, uh, I, like-I don't think he's looked terrible so far- No, not at all...
30:37
by any means, but he, i- it's a rookie quarterback, and what happens with rookie quarterbacks that get drafted high, Gil, they're usually on pretty bad teams, [laughs] and that's what the, the Commanders look like right now out of the gates.
30:47
We'll see how the rest of the season goes, see how Jayden Daniels, uh, d- continues to develop. But I think this is the time of year you want to attack the rookie quarterbacks early in the year.
30:56
The teams are still coming, coming together. They're still coming together. And like you said, the Bengals, they looked a whole lot more like the Bengals, uh, themselves in Kansas City last week.
31:04
I think you give them a, uh, easy defensive opponent like this this week, everything starts to click offensively for Cincinnati. I expect them to win quite easily as well this week.
31:13
At seven and a half, they are also my favorite teaser leg- Mm-hmm... of the week as well. I paired them with the Minnesota Vikings. Um, a lot of people love the Chargers as a teaser leg- Yep... to pair with this.
31:23
You gotta look for a dance partner, obviously, with the teaser leg. But the Bengals straight, and I bought it down to seven, just to be clear, is the larceny smooth bet of the week.
31:32
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31:37
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31:46
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31:53
A numbers game brought to you by Larceny Bourbon, Bardstown, Kentucky, 46% alcohol by volume. Think wisely, drink wisely. Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin.
32:01
By the way, other bets that you've made in the National Football League this week are? You know what? I've got a fair amount this week, actually, which kinda surprises me.
32:09
I, I will say, though, not- nothing, nothing massive like, uh [laughs] like last week [laughs] where I felt like I had a couple big bets, Ravens, Texans, a bunch of stuff tied into that.
32:18
I kinda, eh, went, went both ways. Texans was w- luckily grabbed a couple five and a halves on those, so I kinda split. D- you were on six, right? It's so funny how numbers work. With that Texans game last week- Yeah...
32:29
you had six. Yeah. I had six and a halves and five and a halves, so it's like, [laughs] you lose, lose one, win some. Um, okay, s- what I got so far, uh, Bucs laying six and a half, I played that on the opener.
32:42
Titans money line I played on the opener. Uh, you believe in any of the Jordan Love news? See, he practiced yesterday. Yeah. I don't, I don't, I don't think he's co- I don't think he's gonna be back this week.
32:52
That would stun me, but- I, I, I'm just happy to see Tua was placed on IR myself. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. And it's, uh, I guess I'm a little concerned, but I don't really expect him to be played. Yeah.
33:00
Uh, Cardinals, I g- I took three and a half on the opener, played over 51 in that game. Cowboys, Niners teaser for me, and then I am under 44 on 49ers Rams, under 41 and a half Dolphins Seahawks.
33:12
And added last night, tip of the cap to Matt Brown, Brandon Aiyuk over 63 and a half receiving yards. I have the Bengals, again minus seven, bought that down. Uh, the Bengals Vikings, 6.2 leg teaser, as I mentioned.
33:25
I do have the Pa- Patriots tonight. The Patriots tonight, as I mentioned earlier, plus six and a half. And the other one is, I wasn't quick enough to get to it, but I was right about the line move in the Saints game.
33:34
I am on the Saints minus two and a half against the Eagles. Sadly, I was in a cocoon and couldn't bet it with them as a dog. We'll come back, MLB questions abound. We'll go through them next.
33:44
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34:43
Gil Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Again, uh, you can say mean things, as long as it's funny. Uh, Ryan Hyatt, uh, shadow producer of Prime Time Action back in the day.
34:54
Mm-hmm. "I'm sorry, but until Kelly Bidlin has popped two Achilles tendons, we don't wanna hear any injury- [laughs]... any injury analysis. Leave that to medical expert and youth sports legend Gil."
35:05
[laughs] Again, I didn't play for Maplewood. [laughs] I was just coaching them up. Oh, man. Uh, this is from Lehman Forrest: "My kid's in Bethesda at NIH on a fellowship.
35:14
Visit oft- uh, visit often and absolutely love all things about that area. Sports betting THC." Believe that's a weed reference, Kelly. "They have it all down perfectly. Great restaurants also." I wouldn't know.
35:26
Never touched the stuff. No. Eh, you're not that kinda guy. Chris Lee Miller: "Uh, hey, Crack." This is for Crack when he comes in.
35:32
[laughs] "Wanted to let you know that I really look forward to your appearance every Thursday on Gil's show. Gil and Kelly awesome show." Hey, there's no apostrophes here. There's no possessives. [laughs] Right.
35:41
Uh, let me repeat that. "I look forward to your appearance every Thursday on Gil's show. Gil and Kelly awesome show. Listen every day during the week. I'm a better bettor for it." Thank you, Chris Lee Miller.
35:50
That was very nice of you. God, yes. That's very nice of you. I like that you go three names as well, uh, Chris Lee Miller. Uh, Scott New York Mets 16. Yes, Scott, you are absolutely right.
35:59
Uh, he says, "Who was that alert catcher that threw out J. Rod at third? Was it our 100 to one Rookie of the Year, Austin Wells?" [laughs] Yes, it was. Yeah. That's awesome. Yes, it was.
36:09
That honestly is an interesting play. Like, I've never e- that's the thing about baseball. You, if you watch it enough, you're like, "I can't possibly see anything I've never seen before." Right, until you do, right?
36:17
[laughs] And then that happens. As well. Um- Fall officially starts Sunday. I just looked that up. I- Or w- I don't know why I wanted to Google that... are we falling back with the clock? Oh, no, no, no.
36:26
Zach C- Zach Cohen and I had this conversation yesterday, actually. Oh. 'Cause I was, uh, you know, booked up early, and he's like, "I don't know if I can do that early, uh, once the clocks change."
36:33
And I was like, "When is that? Like, next week?" Oh, yeah. I looked it up. November 3rd. Ooh, that's late Yeah. Yeah, that's what I thought too, right? 'Cause he scared me when he said that.
36:42
I was like, "Oh boy, does this mean they're changing like next week or something?" No, November 3rd. November 3rd. Thank you, Kelly. That's, uh, something I need to know. That's actionable information is what that is.
36:51
I hate it here when it's after that 'cause then it's so dark in the morning. I know. Oh, yeah. Depressing. Uh, TJ Deets, "As a proud Yinzer from Da Burgh, I'm very impressed with your attempt at Pittsburghese," Gil.
37:02
Thank you. [laughs] Pittsburghhese. Uh, if you wanna hear, you wanna hear authentic Pittsburghese- [laughs]... Todd, uh, Todd Wishnev on the Megapod pretty much every week has a Pittsburghese rant. Yep.
37:12
And it is, "Da town. We're going downtown- [laughs]... to steal this game." So great. Uh, and then Charles in Connecticut, "I'm a, I'm in a small survivor with 66 entries. Only three left."
37:22
Had to make two picks, though, in week two. That sort of explains it. "Where, where can I hear that other show about your results when you wake up in the morning?" I dunno, we're still working out the, the details.
37:31
[laughs] The contract details for that one, Charles. Um. Oh, ref- uh, and Refine Jay, Refine IJ, is it? Oh, Refine U, pardon me, Refine U, the Lobos are coming. He said, "Sport trade is now live in Arizona."
37:43
We have an update. Nice. Sport trade is live in Arizona if we're to believe Refine U. Thank you, Refine U. You've gotta at least check it out. Yeah. Like, that is, at least check it out.
37:51
Like, when we're talking minus 104, that goes such a long way. You need to check it out. And whatever, if it's not something for you, then fine.
37:57
But you gotta w- if you're, if you're doing this every day or regularly, you gotta at least try it. Yeah.
38:02
I gotta get the, I gotta get the Prophet boys on here, though, 'cause they're, they're doing a sweepstakes thing, and I'm talking about you, Texas and California. Ooh. Like, you're involved in this, too. Florida?
38:11
So we gotta get, we gotta get the Prophet guys. Yeah? Florida, too? Nice. Uh, Florida, too. I mean, I guess- I'll check on Florida...
38:16
I guess I'm assuming if California and Texas are, they were Well, it's 40, it's 40 states deep on Prophet. Okay. So that's, it's a whole, that opens up a whole nother thing. Um, always appreciate the tweets.
38:25
Kelly, we, uh, we have a little, uh, little segment here you've, you've put together. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So w- MLB season coming down to the wire. Yes, sir.
38:31
I just wanted to run through kinda every team, team by team with you and where we think they stand right now, whether they're gonna make the playoffs or not. We've been getting a lot of tweets about it.
38:38
You just made a bet on the Tigers, so- I did... I grabbed a few teams and just said let's, uh, let's hit one by one, see what Gil thinks. Did you just wink at me? Uh, no, I did like a little bit of this. Oh, okay.
38:47
Little bit of this. Just curious. I felt Kelly winked at me. This. It's like, "This segment's great." Let me wink at him. [laughs] All right. All right, I'm starting with your Detroit Tigers.
38:54
[laughs] How about a current number, Gil Alexander? Would you bet the Detroit Tigers to make the playoffs? No, I w- I mean, I wouldn't bet at plus 140 even though I think they're going to make the playoffs.
39:03
Again, this is, this sort of head- makes, you know, new bettors' heads explode. Mm-hmm. What do you mean? You just bet them at plus 450. You think they're gonna make the playoffs. You bet 'em a day ago.
39:10
And if you think them, if you think they're gonna make it, why wouldn't you bet at plus 140? Uh, because what... How can I put this?
39:17
This is if you ran the rest of the season 100 times or 1,000 times or 10,000 times, if you did a simulation, uh, plus 450 would represent plus EV, plus expected value.
39:28
Um, so in other words, the rate at which they would get to the playoffs makes that a good bet. Um, but at plus 140, the bet is not a good bet even though it might cash anyway.
39:40
Uh, the way I like to, to say it is, you know, in a, in a baseball game, if there's a plus 150 dog and someone asks you, again, I've said this a number of times, "Oh, so you think that team that you're betting on at plus 150 is gonna win?"
39:51
And my answer is, "Uh, not exactly," but I think they're a better, but I think they're a great bet at plus 150, right? Because I have them as, say, plus 120, let's say. Isn't it a- So- Isn't it amazing that- Yeah...
40:03
the, like, w- with the, the person that's never placed a bet before, the point spread is by far the tougher thing to explain, but then anybody who has just bet a little bit, money line differentials are way tougher to explain to people.
40:16
My brother, my older brother, is a doctor. If I try, and he, and he's watched football his entire life. It's the only sport he likes is the NFL.
40:25
If I try to begin to explain a point spread to him, let's say it's a minus seven, "So see, Ron, if, if they're above minus seven, you gotta, you have to win by more than seven to cash." [laughs] He's like, "I can't."
40:36
[laughs] His brain just shuts off. I'm like, "Aren't you, didn't, aren't you, like, a medical school graduate?" Ah.
40:43
I, I feel like the most common one I get is when you're, when, actually when you're explaining the dog, and they're like, "Well, okay, got it, got it." Oh, the dog gets- "But what, what happens if they win?" Oh.
40:50
Then you're like, "You, you're good." You're still, you're still good if they win. You're, you're, you're good. Yeah. [laughs] So I don't have to lose by less than seven? No, that's correct. Right.
40:56
[laughs] You get all that. You can win, too. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, so no, I wouldn't bet the Tigers now. Yesterday was the time to get in on them.
41:03
And yesterday when I gave them- Weren't you betting them at 4 to 1, right? Yesterday when I, yesterday when I gave it out at plus 450- Yeah. Wow... it was still available widely at plus 380. That was the time to get in.
41:10
Okay. The Minnesota Twins, we hit on this a little bit earlier. Yeah. Yes, they'll make it at minus 270. No, they will not at plus 220. Well, so the question becomes would I bet them at no plus 220?
41:20
Probably not, 'cause again, it's like, it was sort of like that, um, you know, what were we talking about?
41:27
The National League Rookie of the Year, and s- when Skeens was available at plus 310, but by the time you- Right... and I got off air here it was like plus 205. Yeah. It's like, eh, it's not worth it. Yeah, interesting.
41:36
So I, I don't think the Twins at plus 220 is the way to go either. Like, I think, again, yesterday was the time to get in. Uh, just betting aside, most, m- uh, likely in, though, to Minnesota Twins for you?
41:50
Likely, say again? They're likely in, will make- No, I believe that the Tigers- Oh, okay... will, will pass them. Okay. Interesting. All right. I do, I do believe that.
41:55
And today's ballgame between the Twins and the Guardians is as important as any. Okay, and then we final one in the American League, the Seattle Mariners. 20 to 1 to make it. [laughs] They- No minus 8,000.
42:06
I mean, they're 20 to 1 for a reason. Yeah. They're three games out.
42:09
They're three games behind the Twins, and we're talking three games with, you know, again, either depending on the club, nine or 10 games left in the Major League Baseball season.
42:19
And in the case of the Mariners and the Twins, uh, the, the Mariners have e- uh, 10 games left, and the Twinkies also have 10 games left.
42:29
So you're trying to, you're trying to g- you know, you have to make up that in such a short amount of time. That's why they're 20 to 1. I would not bet that.
42:37
And by the way, schedule-wise, um, both r- you know, Minnesota's record, uh, Minnesota's schedule, pardon me, is slightly easier than the Mariners' remaining schedule. Okay.
42:45
Yeah, and this is always, like, the biggest part of that, right? Like, it doesn't even, it, no matter how much you like the Mariners or their remaining schedule, the other, other teams have to lose, too.
42:53
Like, that's a part of it at this point in the season. All right, National League time. The New York Mets, will they make the playoffs? Yes, minus 265. No, plus 220. Well, I wouldn't bet it now.
43:02
We, I, again, we, I have the Braves at plus s- uh, excuse me, plus 750 to miss, and we have it on the show at eight to one to miss. So the question becomes, oh, would you bet the Mets at minus 265? Yes.
43:14
No, I wouldn't because their schedule, again, as we talked about, it's three Philly, three Atlanta, uh, and then three Milwaukee. They've got the toughest remaining schedule. Wow.
43:25
By the, by the way, it's four Philly, pardon me, three Milwaukee, and three Atlanta. So I wouldn't bet the yes at minus 265 even though I think they're going to get there. Gotcha. It's too, it's too rich.
43:35
It's too, it's too steep of a price. I might be circling back to a question on this one, but we're gonna move forward to the Diamondbacks because I think this is where their schedule's reflected, right?
43:43
Aren't they tied in the standings? D-backs are, are, are st- are tied with the Mets- Right... but they're two games up on the, uh, the Braves as well. Right.
43:50
So you have minus 400 here to make the playoffs, plus 320 not to make the playoffs. D-backs are getting in. Yeah. I think they're getting in. Okay. Yeah.
43:58
So now we go to the Atlanta Braves where it is minus 110 on both sides. Yeah, I mean, and that's because of the Mets' schedule and the fact that they, and the fact that they play each other three times, right?
44:11
Um, there's no bet for me here. I would, I would not hate you either way there. If you think the Braves are gonna make the playoffs, would you rather bet the Mets no at plus two, over two to one?
44:25
Yes, even though you have two shots at it- You have two, yeah... with the Diamondbacks and Mets, but yes, I would still go that way because of the head-to-head. We'll come back.
44:31
Crack unscripted exclusively on The Numbers Game right here at ESPN.
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