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Sep 19, 2025
A Numbers Game | September 19, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 19, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:52
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Friday morning tune.
0:11
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com. Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's a football Friday. Yeah. Football. And football.
0:24
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside. Yes, and international football. Mm-hmm. That's right. Si. [laughs] That's right.
0:31
[laughs] Paul Carr will join us talk Premier League, but besides that, we'll do j- we'll do the domestic variety of football. Uh, college and pro with Chris Felica, college with Dr. Bob.
0:41
I don't know, maybe he has a pro pick. I have no idea. And then anything that's on the mind, football and beyond with Steve Fezzik for Fezzik Fridays, Inside Football Fridays. See how we do that? He does a lot.
0:51
Steve, thanks for all the production work you do for your own segments. Yeah. We can give him three hours. He's got, he's got- We can just take Fridays off... he's got an idea where he wants to go.
0:59
Usually we just sort of wing it. He has an idea. That's right. Yeah, he has an idea where he wants to go. Uh, and then Kelly and I will, uh, give our thoughts, our, uh- Mm...
1:06
knee-jerk responses both from a, or I should say in all kinds of ways, from an ATS, from a survivor standpoint, any which way on all these NFL games. Not the Wednesday whip-around, but a Friday look.
1:18
There's nothing better than a Friday morning talking football. Oh, it's so good. It's the perfect way- It's so good... to, like, go into the weekend. Gil, it's, it's...
1:26
I started narrowing down Millions stuff yesterday, too. I already, I submitted my Millions. Oh, did you play last night? I, I did not, but after the game, I'm like, "You know what? Let me just look at these."
1:38
And so without the Steve Fezzik perfect information on a Saturday afternoon, I just, I submitted. How dare you? Yeah. I better text him right now to bring that up as a talking point. Oh, he'll be very upset.
1:47
[laughs] He'll be very upset with me. No, it's, uh... Okay, so it was easier for me than I thought it was gonna be, I guess, which I, which I'm reading from you as well. But, like, I don't like any of them.
1:56
It was one of those, like, well, I guess this one. Well, I guess this one. Sure, this one. Well, I mean, th- three of mine, [clears throat] pardon me, three of mine are...
2:04
Well, two of, two of mine are guessing lines related, right? Yeah. 'Cause I'm still going ahead and buy it. So I got the, I got the best of the number on two of the three on Monday of the three games I, I isolated.
2:14
So two of those are involved. Um- I laid it with the Falcons too, but me and you are betting three on the Falcons and laying five-and-a-half in the contest. That's exactly right. So... And, and that's one of my Mega Pod.
2:25
Uh, I had the over in the game last night, which we'll get to here momentarily, and, and I'm taking the worst. Th- Got the best of it on the bet, right? Minus three on a game that's minus five-and-a-half.
2:35
What is now the worst of it in contest and Mega Pod, but still feel confident about the Falcons. So th- that's the thing, you have to constantly shift your mind. It's tough. Yeah.
2:42
And then there's survivor on top of that, so it's a whole thing. That's why we love it so. Yep. We love it so. You know who we don't love so? The Cleveland Guardians. Go away. Oh my gosh. Can't stand you people.
2:51
I almost- I forgot to text you yesterday. Oh. Skubal, how many times do I gotta see? Gil. How many times do I gotta see? He's just gotta pitch the whole game. What are we doing? Yeah.
3:00
But even when he- You know, I, I have an un-... it was one run, right? I have an alt season under on the, on the Guardians too, which, you know, again, [laughs] 87-and-a-half.
3:07
I didn't think I'd even have to worry about that one. Now I have to, like, even pay attention to that. Anyway, Guardians, by the way, best record in September, 13 and 4. To the game last night, National Football League.
3:16
Sorry, that came into my mind. Yeah. Um- I'm just watching... Buffalo beats Miami 31-21. They win, but don't cover in a game that was, uh, fairly entertaining. 14 to 7, Buffalo.
3:30
So Miami actually scored first on their first drive, and then Buffalo scored on both of their first two drives, got to the house on both of those as well. Um, it was a...
3:41
And, and you know, at this point, by the way, the f- the 14, the second Buffalo touchdown was a Josh Allen flip of the football, um, to Jackson Haase.
3:51
And then after a three-and-out for Miami, y- Allen is feeling so good about himself, he's flipping the ball all over the place.
3:57
He tried another pass, like, on, on the subsequent drive, and [laughs] it's just like- I, I texted you right then too. I was like, I was like, "I don't know about this whole, like, Josh Allen running tonight.
4:05
I'm betting, I'm betting live unders- Yeah... on the rushing." And I got burned on one run in the second half. Burned. Burned on one run.
4:10
So it's 14 to 7 for those who missed it, and then Matt Prater lines up, 'cause after a Miami three-and-out, so, so, you know, Dolphins do hold.
4:17
And Matt Prater's about to put the r- the Bills up 10 points, and he proceeds to have the worst field goal attempt of his career. I th- I thought this had to have been blocked, right? It wasn't just wide left.
4:29
It was [laughs] it was like- [laughs] Yeah... halfway between the goalpost and the stands. I don't know what that was, but- D- Gil texted that.
4:36
I responded with, "It, it might be the worst field goal attempt ever by any kicker." [laughs] So it's raid 14 to 7. We're in the second quarter.
4:42
And you know, buoyed by that miss, Miami then goes 16 plays, 71 yards, which included, Kelly, five third down conversions, three of which were to Tyreek for 19 on third and 12, for 13 on third and 10, for seven on third and 3, two of to Jaden, uh, Jaylen Waddle from three out.
5:03
14-14, eight seconds left in the half, and Miami's gotta be feeling good about themselves. By the way, then the, uh... I don't know if you saw this, 'cause I was, I was already turning to the WNBA game at that point.
5:13
Mm-hmm. But Josh Allen had a pretty, uh, shaky kneel-down. Did you see that? He, he s- the s- the ball snapped.
5:18
He kind of bobbled it, but his second knee touched the ground, not his first one, and then he flipped the ball to the ref. So, like, Miami was a little, was a little weirded out by that.
5:28
Oh, it was- But it, but it was in fact a kneel down. Okay. You, you didn't like it? You didn't think it was? I don't know that I ever saw anything that for sure I, I felt like it was a, a, a knee got down.
5:37
Second knee was down. But you're telling me second knee. Second knee. I never, I never looked at an angle where I saw a second knee.
5:41
So we're tied at 14, and again, like, you know, I had, I had Buffalo on two of my survivor entries. At no point was I feeling weirded out by this though at all. Buffalo comes out first, second half,
5:52
d- matriculate down the field, cook in from two. 21-14 Buffalo early third quarter. Then after, you know, a Miami three-and-out, Buffalo three-and-out, again, another Miami three-and-out-
6:01
Buffalo has to punt again, so the Miami defense is, like, showing up now. Miami, fourth and four at the Buffalo 36. Tua to Waddle for 15, then A-Chan for 14. Two plays later, Tua to Tyreek from five out.
6:12
It's 21-21, Kelly, with 12:18 left in the game. And, and for the first time, kinda like you were saying earlier, for, for the first time in the game, I'm like, "Oh, this is- Hmm.
6:21
"This might be tight here down the stretch." Honestly, I still wasn't there. Okay, [laughs] okay. Here's, here's where I did get there.
6:26
And then Miami forces a Buffalo punt again, and for these next 25 seconds, I was like, "Oh, boy. This could be something." But guess what? It was only 25 seconds, 'cause Zach, Zach Seiler roughs punter Cameron Johnston.
6:43
I mean, this is one of the two biggest plays of the game, 'cause you're about to get the ball back- Oh... with a chance to go ahead, and instead, you rough, not running into, by the way, you rough the punter.
6:54
So it's an automatic first down. Five plays later, Allen to Shakir from 15 out. 28-21 Buffalo, little more than halfway through the quarter. So Miami starts at their own 37.
7:02
They matriculate two more third-down conversions to Waddle this time along the way. It's first and 10 at the Buffalo 21 with 3:06 left, and you're down seven.
7:13
At this point, you're thinking, "Well, if they s- it probably not gonna work out time-wise, but if they were able to milk it, would they go for two for the win at the end?"
7:22
Well, then, how many people in the country go, "There he is." Yeah. There's Tua.
7:27
Tua stares down Jalen Waddle, who sits on the, on the pattern, which is exactly what the pattern was supposed to be, but Tua's just staring at him.
7:35
And, uh, Terrell Bernard just comes in and picks it and returns it 23 yards. I thought Bernard was a little wor- for those of us who had the over, thought Bernard kinda nonchalantly went out of bounds.
7:45
Turn it up field, baby. Nope, just kinda went out of bounds. Yeah, that's a good... I didn't really think about that. Yeah, I was like- Oh, but yeah... "What are you doing?" Yeah. So anyway, so at this point, it's 28-21.
7:52
Buffalo's in control, obviously. But for those of us who had the over at 50 and a half, it came down to the final sequence. Buffalo had a first and 10 at the Miami 35 at the two-minute warning.
8:03
So I needed three things to happen for the over. I needed Miami to get three stops. They only had one timeout at this point. I needed Buffalo to d- to then, three stops, obviously, without them getting the first down.
8:15
I needed them to, Buffalo to decide to kick the field goal, and then I needed Prater to make the field goal. Yep. Bing, bang, bong. Winner. Me, me and you both got so lucky on our bets yesterday.
8:26
Well, were we lucky, though? 'Cause that looked like it was over for a long time in that game. Yeah, until the third quarter hit and it was like, put the brakes on. Right, but I don't consider that a lucky win. Okay.
8:35
All right. Yeah. I mean, there's, believe me, there's far- There's a lot... far more fortunate wins. Okay, lucky, lucky finish to the [laughs] For sure. That's what I meant.
8:41
For sure a fortunate finish that, finish that it all went our way, but- I mean, I, I had the first half over. It was just as ridiculous, 'cause that Prater missed field goal, and I was like, "Oh, great.
8:49
I'm gonna need a touchdown by the Dolphins f- you know, before the end of the half to get it over." And of course, [laughs] they score with seconds on the clock.
8:56
Just to give you an idea of the thin line between wins and losses, right? So we get the thin line of a win there on the over. Um, and by the way, again, Miami does cover for Miami backers.
9:07
My guess on guessing lines was at this point, it should've been Buffalo minus 10. There's your margin. Um, but the thin line between winning bets and losing bets. Our buddy Will Hill.
9:17
Our buddy Will Hill had two prop bets. [snorts] Um, he had Malik Washington over 25 and a half receiving yards. Okay. And he had Tua Tagovailoa over 34 and a half pass attempts. He had both of these.
9:32
The final play of the game, Tua appears to pass the ball to Malik Washington to get 14 yards. Tua's sitting on 34 pass attempts. Remember, it's 34 and a half. Malik is sitting on just below 25 and a half.
9:48
It's a, it looks to be a 14-yard pass play, and the result of that oughta be that Will hits both of those props on the final play of the game. It was a play that had no consequence to the final score. Right.
10:00
But it was one of those... Remember the, uh, the Frank Wycheck Minne- uh, Miracle City... Was it the Miracle, the Music City Miracle play? Yeah, yeah. And remember how it was sort of an optical illusion?
10:12
Everybody in real time thought, well, this is before your time maybe, but everybody in real time thought- No, no... it was a forward pass- Yeah... but it in fact was a lateral across the field- Right... to Kevin Dyson.
10:21
This was kind of like that in a final play from scrimmage form, where Tua's hand actually was just inside the 38-yard line of Buffalo when he threw it, and Malik Washington actually caught it, like, at the 38-yard line.
10:37
So it was correctly ruled a lateral, and so no Tua- Brutal. That is brutal... final attempt. No Malik Washington.
10:45
Here's, by the way, here's, uh, Mike Renner, our old buddy from, uh, PFF, who's now married, by the, former, uh, Bachelorette contender, Mike Renner, right? Mm-hmm.
10:52
Um, the tragic thing for the Dolphins going forward is that Tua's cap number is higher than Josh Allen's in 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028.
11:00
And this brings up what I'd been talking about, which is I think Mike McDaniel probably saved his job by the competitive nature of that game last night. Maybe.
11:08
But I keep going to the Dolphins are gonna have to consider, right? If the losses pile up and this season is lost, they are going to have to consider what Denver did with Russell Wilson.
11:19
Remember when Sean Payton was just like, "This isn't my guy," and Denver took the largest two-year cap hit for any player ever when they decided to move on from Russell Wilson.
11:29
The Dolphins might have to do this with Tua, might have to do it with Tua. In a, uh, in a game that was filled with dinks last night- Mm-hmm...
11:35
which we'll get to on the other side as well, um, let's go around the league in addition to that.
11:41
Game by game, our thoughts, ATS, straight up, it's a Football Friday, week three of the NFL, on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
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12:42
Skill Alexander, "We get tweets at Beating the Book. Y'all are the best. Best listeners in the game." Jacco Bellis, "Happy Megapod Week 3."
12:48
Jacco was the, uh, guy from Wapisi Capital who, uh, who always is making the AI animation- Mm-hmm... for the Megapod. That, the purple Todd animation for Wishinep Wednesdays is from Jacco Bellis.
12:59
He made one of Drew Dincic yesterday on the, uh, Megapod. It's great. With a shot clock. [laughs] 'Cause Todd wanted- That's awesome... put him on a shot clock with his, with his picks.
13:07
[laughs] Todd, Todd has no issue going after the guests. He's... We invite these guests onto the Megapod. Todd's like, "You're gonna have to-" [laughs] Give you all that. Yeah...
13:14
"We're gonna have to give you a shot clock." [laughs] Um, [laughs] JasonH11. Gilly- I, I get berated the once a year I get invited on, I get berated for, uh, having to confirm what the pick selections are again.
13:25
It's like- So great... "How do you not know this?" Aaron Shots's greatest comment for the Megapod was, "I'm gonna have to get used to the, uh, the rhythm of this podcast." [laughs] The rhythm. The rhythm. The rhythm.
13:34
That's a kind word. Yeah. JasonH11, "Gilly, I wanna commend you on your patience with Todd's interruptions on the Megapod.
13:39
I was at a traffic light and scared the woman in the car next to me when I screamed, 'Shut the blank up, Todd!'" [laughs] Scott Barbreck @UrbanWarfare1, "Happy Friday, boys." Happy Friday to you, Scott.
13:50
"What do you think about a symmetry pick? Kershaw's last start tonight. His good friend Freddie Freeman goes deep to support him, and in the process goes over [laughs] his 21 and a half homer total.
13:58
And yes, I am holding that ticket." I totally guessed that you probably were holding that ticket with that tweet.
14:03
Um, yeah, Ker- Clayton Kershaw, by the way, I'm gonna have to do this, not on a football Friday, but I'll do this next week, 'cause Joe Peter ran the numbers on Clayton Kershaw.
14:12
Clayton Kershaw gets dinged because of his poor post-season, but this guy, like, when you isolate his road stats career, it is just off the charts unbelievable.
14:22
We'll, we'll, we'll mention that on Tuesday, uh, courtesy of Joe. And Chance Copper- Did, did you think the timing was weird at all? Oh, that he announced it now? Yeah. Well, I mean, he, he's...
14:32
I, I guess he's not on the post-season roster maybe, and so it's like, yeah, it's, maybe it's time. Okay. I don't know. I don't know what he was thinking. Y- yes, to answer your question. It's a little weird.
14:42
For the fans, it's, it was weird to hear. That's, that, that's all. Yeah, I thought- It's kinda like, "Oh, okay.
14:46
Well, Dodgers still have plenty of season left to go, but Kershaw's, uh, [laughs] Kershaw's thinking ahead." [laughs] Yeah. Chance Copper Pot, "I could talk about the Beastie Boys endlessly." We did yesterday.
14:55
Someone said it was pre-copyright for Paul's Boutique. Not exactly. I agree with you, Chance. I wasn't sure about that. He says, "Samples were far cheaper though. 250,000 for all on that album." That's it. Wow.
15:07
250K, produced by The Dust Brothers. They had 105 songs sampled on Paul's Boutique. It's a classic, no question. Brian Schaefer31, "They say betting is easy. I had a parlay.
15:17
Waddle 30 yards, Shakir 20 yards," both of those checks, "Kincaid 30 yards receiving," check, "Cook 50 yards," check. I guess that's rushing. And the final leg, "A-Chan to 30.
15:27
He ends up with 29, loses yards on a screen pass early in the final pass, wide open, and Tua goes to Washington." [sighs] Can we revisit that Will Hill thing again?
15:37
He had both of those, which would've cashed on the final play. Both failed. That's wild. That is wild. And because of like a- That's sick... like, less than a half yard backwards, none, doesn't work out.
15:46
Uh, Indiana Jet, who was one of the four choppers of Survivor two years ago, he says, "Two observations on the game.
15:50
One, broadcast ignored the fact that on the very first third down, Reek didn't seem to have possession before stepping out, and two, Prater miss reminded me [laughs] of when I bring my softball swing to the golf course."
15:59
Yes, about... What, what he's referring to on the first one is the very first third down conversion, or, or at least it was on the first drive, I think it was the first third down conversion.
16:08
There was a third and four to, to, to Tyreek Hill on the sidelines, and it appeared that Tyreek, I even had it in my notes, but I just decided to skip it here.
16:15
Tyreek bobbled the ball, and it was unclear if he had both feet down. And not only did the broadcast not really linger on it, Sean McDermott decided not to challenge it that early in the game.
16:26
So, so I believe as much of the br- much of a mention on the broadcast as you got was the last look at the highlight before they cut back to the Dolphins about to run another play. Yes.
16:34
And it was Herbie with a, "Oh, I don't know." Yeah. "Oh, wait, the play's going." That's right. But I also thought- That, that led to the Dolphins' first touchdown, by the way... so th- that was one, though, I also...
16:42
I was surprised there was nobody... Like, I don't feel too bad for the Dolphins when the Dolphins were so quick to go go run the next play, right? Like, you're... I, I don't know.
16:53
Like, that's a consider calling a timeout. Yeah. Like, McDaniel started yelling at the ref. Yeah. Like, there's gotta be someone upstairs yelling at you- That's right... to challenge it or whatever. Oh.
17:01
Yell at these guys. Right, right. Not y- yeah. Th- well, the Dolphins ran the next play because it got called complete. That's why the Dolphins ran the next play. Right, right, right, right, right. Yeah.
17:11
Sorry, the other side. Other side. Right. Yeah. Yeah. So, um, anyway, the, the last thing about... A couple things I wanna say.
17:16
The last thing I said about this was maybe the Dolphins considered doing with Tua what the Broncos did with Russell Wilson. Mm. I will say there's one, there's a couple major differences to that, right?
17:25
One, the Broncos had a, a robust quarterback draft class the next year, and they ended up with Bo Nix.
17:32
So if you identify someone in the next draft class as a q- as a quarterback you'd like to replace him, that's kind of part and parcel with doing that. I'm not sure if the Dolphins have.
17:41
And the other thing is, the Broncos had the Broncos defense. The Dolphins don't have anything near that, to say the least.
17:47
Can we throw up that Next Gen Stat last thing on this game last night before we, uh, go game by game? The other characteristic of this game last night, that it was a dink fest. Yeah.
17:55
Um, from Next Gen Stats, if you guys have that. Like, I knew it was, but, like, Tenny told me this this morning. [laughs] I was like, "I didn't know it was that bad." Yeah. Next Gen Stats.
18:04
Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa combined to average 1.5 air yards per completion, the lowest mark in a game in the Next Gen Stats era. That means since 2016.
18:14
Allen attempted only one pass over 10 air yards, while Tua completed as many passes behind the line of scrimmage as past it, 11 each. Powered by AWS Cloud. How about that? That's what the football game was last night.
18:27
You know what? So, so neither one of those is surprising to me, right? I, I, it's weird. I, and it's weird to see this in one game, but the Dolphins offense, they run so much of the motion stuff, right?
18:37
Like that's- Yeah... uh, that's that. And then the Bills, man, the Bills the past couple years have just turned into... I mean, there's a, a little bit you could say about this with the Chiefs too, right? We will take...
18:46
We, we trust our quarterbacks. We'll take whatever you're gonna give, give us, right? And there's so much running the ball. There's so much short stuff, uh, so much trust in those guys.
18:54
So I, it's a, it's, it's wild when you put it like this, but like I didn't... I went through that whole game not thinking it was like weird by either offense. I would agree with you. Yeah. I would agree with you.
19:04
I mean, I guess if, if someone asked me, "Hey, did you... " I would be like, "Oh, yeah, I guess you're right." But I... It didn't really occur to me. Um, Bill's defense a little shaky to you? Oh, for sure. Yeah.
19:13
That was... I, th- that was probably my biggest takeaway from that game- Yeah... last night was- That's, for me, even survivor... but- I, I used them in two.
19:19
I'm going to use them in some form next week and the week after, 'cause week five is, is difficult in survivor. But that was my big takeaway. I was like, "I'm not gonna have real trouble putting them in my rear view."
19:28
I'm also g- I'm also not gonna overreact though, because we knew, I, we knew the Bill's defense was not a top 10 defense- We knew... coming into the season. And then Ed Oliver- Injuries... and Milano out. Yeah.
19:39
Like we saw this last year when Milano was out, how much that affected that defense- Absolutely... immediately. Uh, so I'm, I'm... That's still my biggest takeaway, but I'm not trying to overreact too much.
19:48
But even in the preseason, we knew the secondary was shaky. Right. Right. Uh, let's go to Sunday. Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns. Green Bay down to a seven-and-a-half point favorite now at Cleveland.
19:56
What was my guess on guessing lines, Kelly? Seven and a half. There you go. It all comes back to guessing lines. Um, it is not a survivor play for me. It is not, because there's other places to use Green Bay.
20:11
I did not play this on the spread. Total's 41 and a half. You do have Green Bay in teasers left- Yeah... left and right.
20:16
But this is, like, this is the, you know, the difference we talked a little bit about yesterday, right? Contest brain and betting brain. Yeah. And it is...
20:22
Yeah, I've got the, I've got the Packers teased left and right, but this is... The excuse for not using the Packers now is because, yes, I agree with you. I think they're one of the better teams in the NFL.
20:30
There are plenty of other spots to use them down the road. I love them as a teaser leg this week. I have them tied in four different ways. Four. Four. Pa- so yeah, Packers, you better win on Sunday.
20:42
S- Sunday morning, Jets at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay down to a six-and-a-half point favorite.
20:48
Um, I am considering, as I mentioned in the survivor segment earlier this week, uh, with my remaining entries, my remaining entries will be divvied up somewhere between the Seahawks and the Bucs.
20:58
Uh, I will say this then on the Megapod, on the Beating the Book podcast Megapod yesterday with Drew Dincic as our guest, Will Hill, Todd Wishnim and, and I. Um, he is, he is not bullish on the Bucs in this game.
21:10
Let me just put it thas- that way. So, uh, I have cooled off as well. I think I'm going all Seahawks. The, the injuries that Tampa came out of that game with- Yeah...
21:20
they're gonna be out with, out of three starting offensive linemen in this game. I, I, I... They haven't even... I don't even think they've finished calling up guys from the practice squad yet.
21:29
Yo, like there's like eight offensive line on, uh, linemen on the roster right now going into this game. So they gotta figure that out. I, I, yeah, I think there's major concerns there with Tampa.
21:39
You got a, a Bucamis time earlier in the week. We already know they're thin at wide receiver. So I... Concerns enough for me- Yeah... that I think I'm go- I'm moving off that, uh, game for, uh, survivor. Yeah.
21:49
And maybe- And with that- And by the way, for those of us who had a couple entries on, uh, on the Bills, maybe that is the way to ple- play the rest of them.
21:55
Now that the Bills have won, you don't have to be so protective of the- Conservative, yeah... of, of changing. You know, making sure that there's, uh... W- you know, 'cause you're not...
22:04
Like p- if, if you shoved, if you had lost that last night and then you shoved, you could be out of survivor entirely, but you won it last night, so maybe you do shove on, on the Seahawks.
22:13
I added this as a contest play on this next one. I took the Rams plus the three and a half points. Have not bet it yet, but I'm considering doing so. Rams, 'cause I, I usually bet on...
22:21
I mean, w- in almost every case I will bet my, uh, contest plays. Yeah. But Rams plus three and a half at the Eagles. I took the Rams plus the points in millions. It is one of mine in millions as well.
22:33
I'm gonna guess it is one of the most selected million side. I think so. You, have you heard anybody on the Eagles this week? Nope. I've heard a lot of Rams love. I get it, though. I completely get it.
22:42
People love a hook. Yep. Rams, the team that had the best chance to beat the Eagles last year in the playoffs in the snow, had the ball with the chance to win it. Come back, we'll, uh, go through the rest of the games.
22:53
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23:39
Kelly and I, we were hearing funny noises in the ceiling, and so we look right into the lights. Now all I'm seeing is stars. It w- d- I ca- I don't even know how you did that read. [laughs] I'm like, "You hear that?
23:48
Something rattling around in that light." Yeah. We- Gil and I both look up at the same light. They're- Stare into the sun... you guys can't see it. They're about, uh- Yeah...
23:55
they're about four feet higher than where my hand is right now and brighter than the sun. Sorry. I'm, I'm, yeah, struggling to see right now. We, we stupid. Uh, Superjerk has t- has, uh, tweeted in.
24:07
He said, "You ha- you had to go bring up the Memphis nightmare." I think he means the Nashville nightmare, Music City Miracle. That's what I'm thinking he means. I think so.
24:14
He goes, "Thinking I'm the smartest guy in the world with the dog and the under in that one. Have a winning weekend, you bum." That's what he called me. [laughs] He called it Memphis, but he's calling me the bum.
24:22
Michael- Get it together, Superjerk. [laughs] Come on, Superjerk. That was not a val- that was not a valuable tweet. Uh, it's right. [laughs] Get it right. It's Nashville, not Memphis.
24:29
Michael Salvino, "I appreciate the quick and subtle old school hip-hop references. Good luck this weekend." You too, Michael. And, uh, again, I apologize to, uh, some who are like, "What, what's with this guy?"
24:37
It's sort of like y- y- this is the first ever HBO show... was a show in the '80s called Dream On. Mm. So before they went all dramatic from movies into, like, their own productions, there's a show called Dream On.
24:49
It was a guy, and basically he thought in movie clips. He had watched so many movies as a kid, that as an adult all he did was remember movies.
24:56
And so for me, it's sort of like the, the musical equivalent where I can't... Unless I say it, it gets stuck in my brain. Yeah, makes sense. Makes sense. Yeah.
25:03
I'm, I'm amused on my side by what doesn't get noticed, so I play a little game about that as well. You, you mean from me? Yeah, I got it. Not only from you. Yeah, everybody. From everybody. Yeah.
25:10
[laughs] Um, all right, uh, let's, let's keep going. Early Atlanta at Carolina, again on guessing lines. I can't say it enough. First reaction was I can't believe this is only three and a half. I bought it to three.
25:22
It's now five and a half in favor of the Falcons. And I ended up... This was one of my... I'll, I'll give- I said it earlier. This was one of my mega pod picks still at this number.
25:32
Because Carolina, think about Carolina. They got crushed by Jacksonville, and then they were getting crushed by Arizona till it felt like Arizona just sort of took the foot off the gas.
25:45
And then Carolina played really well, and again, got the onside kick, had a chance to win the game. But I'm not sure I can give Carolina full marks for that. And Atlanta probably should've beaten Tampa Bay.
25:55
Could've, anyway. Mm-hmm. And then they crushed Minnesota in a game that should've been even a bigger blowout than it was, quite frankly. Yeah.
26:02
And the big surprise for me with Atlanta is we knew about the skill position players on offense, right? But it's the defense that has surprised. Yeah. I'm, I'm, I, I'm still questioning that one. I'm still...
26:14
I wanna see if that... I, like, look, I think they, they could, they have a chance to look good [laughs] against the Panthers. Are they gonna look like that for the whole season?
26:20
Uh, uh, that's a big question for me still. I don't know if I'm fully believing it, but it's been impressive so far. Uh, gotta get the ball in the end zone, right? Uh, yeah, that- Yes, you do...
26:28
that is something- Yes, you do. You're right. That game could've, should've been a bigger win for the Falcons last Sunday night. Um, against this Panthers team, I expect that they do.
26:37
I have, uh, the, I have the Falcons as well on the side at three from open. And then I bet the over in that game as well, down to 43 and a half. Oh, okay. Yeah, expecting to see some points from these offenses. Uh, Mr.
26:48
Smarty Pants, me, with all these, uh, CLVs, uh, this week. Well, this one is the other way. So no, I was not good on this one. Tennessee, uh, plus three and a half. I already bet it.
26:58
It was one that I loved on guessing lines. Well, it's plus four now. I like it even more. And again, for me, this is just...
27:06
Uh, you mentioned yesterday, Kelly, that India- that Indianapolis, you know, pre-flop line before the season started, that T- Tennessee was actually the slight favorite here. Yeah, one and a half, if I remember. Yeah.
27:15
And, and for me it's just sort of like, okay, I mean, I know Daniel Jones is the toast of the NFL to, to some. Colts, um, listen, they, they crushed the Dolphins week one.
27:25
They get bailed out against the Broncos with the, uh, leverage call.
27:30
And then with Tennessee, listen, if, if Cal- if Brian Callahan knows how to challenge a play and knows that one elbow equals two feet, if, uh, if Cam Ward doesn't have balls dropped in the first game against Denver, that's probably a different outcome.
27:44
And then they were beating the Rams in the third quarter- Yeah... on Sunday. So you give me the points, and now it's four. I'll take them. That would be nothing for me on this game. And I did.
27:53
Lean to that side, though, too. I, that is... I, I think week, week three you run into the problems of the, the both overreaction and underreactions, Gil. And, but that...
28:02
I, I think it very important to look at opponents so far- Yes... and who you've played. Yes. And I agree with that completely on Tennessee. And this is why, and we'll get into this later. W- this is why, like,
28:12
it makes sense why dogs do so well in week three. Mm-hmm. We talk about it, you know, as the old Dr. Bob, uh, pre-season stuff. But w- we talk about it going into week two some, like, "Oh, teams that get crushed."
28:23
But really after two weeks everybody... You know, football's so... The recency bias is so massive, 'cause everybody watches football. So you look up, some teams are 0 and 2, some are 2 and 0, right?
28:34
People don't, they, they don't take the extra second- Yeah... to think about, "Hey, well, how did that happen?" Often that simple. A- and there's a reason why, you know, like, we question Drew all the time, right?
28:43
Like, at what point, NBA, NFL, whatever it is- Yes... at what point are you moving off your priors? Yes. There's a reason why they're still holding onto so much of it right now in the we- in week three.
28:52
And all of this stuff [laughs] with the NFL is small sample size. Right. Yeah. All of it's small sample. Raiders at Commanders. Northwest Stadium. I still have f- still have trouble looking at that. What? It's not FedEx?
29:02
It's not RFK? It's Northwest Stadium? Sure. Commanders, uh, still haven't announced officially if it's gonna be Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota,
29:10
but it looks like to me, if I'm reading the tea leaves, and that's fraught with peril, but I think it's Mariota. Because again, this is generational trauma for Washington, man.
29:19
It's like RGIII spraining his LCL against Baltimore in 2012, and then several weeks later he blows out his knee in the playoffs. I think if there's a- if he's not 100%, sit Jayden. But I will say this.
29:32
We talk about Kansas City being in a must-win situation at the Giants, not wanting to fall to 0 and 3. Kinda must-winish for Washington, 'cause it's tough after this. Yeah.
29:41
They gotta, they gotta figure out a way to win that game against the Raiders. Yeah. I don't have a play. Uh, nothing for me either.
29:45
I mean, look, I, I think I'll take the layup in millions if, if [laughs] Jayden gets ruled in, right? And that line jumps back to six and a half, seven. I'll probably take it, uh, and play it in millions.
29:55
But n- nothing for me either. I, it's still a lean to the Commanders regardless, though. Yeah. I, I think with that short week for the Raiders- Yeah... Mariota I trust as a backup. Like, extra rest for Washington.
30:05
Yeah, extra rest for... I mean, it is a- Short rest for the Raiders... it's the nightmare rest situation... East Coast early, you know, travel. Yeah, all of that. Yeah. It's all of it. It's the worst for the Raiders.
30:13
Steelers at Patriots. Steelers are one and a half point favorites. I want nothing to do with this game. Nothing. It would, it would be, I think I'm probably gonna play Patriots in millions.
30:23
It's Patriots or nothing here for me. I just don't know what you've seen. I mean, the Steelers defense has been bad these first couple weeks.
30:29
I, I don't really know how we get to them being the point and a half favorite on the road. I'm not saying this is way off and I've got a ton of confidence in, confidence in the Patriots.
30:37
I just don't know how the Steelers are a road favorite at this point. Bengals at Vikings. Browning, Wentz. Bengals, Vikings on CBS. Sunday morning. Bengals are plus three. This has stayed at three all week.
30:48
I have the plus three and a half. I bought it to plus three and a half during guessing lines on the Bengals. Um, that's my bet. Don't have it in millions because it's not with the hook, right? Mm.
30:59
Had to buy that for a bet, but it's not a millions play for me. That's kind of funny, 'cause I actually think it's still gonna end up as a millions play- Yeah... for me, and I haven't bet it actually. [laughs] Yeah.
31:07
Whatever the, you know, the FOMO, fear of missing out? W- there's a reverse of that with betting, right? Where, like, I stared at that number for days where it was like, "Okay, it's four, three and a half, three."
31:17
Never bet it, never bet it, and you're like, "Okay, well, now it's three. I don't wanna bet it." Texans-Jaguars. AFC South clash. Early season clash with the Jag-wires. Also the Jaguars.
31:29
Minus one and a half point favorites. You've got the Texans in teasers? No? Texans I- Yeah... I did include yesterday. Added another one with the Packers. Texans up to seven and a half with the Pack.
31:38
Uh, teased that side up, and then I will be play- I think I'll be playing Texans in millions as well. Man, Texans-Packers I think is my favorite, uh, teaser leg, though I have not bet that yet.
31:47
Uh, New Orleans Saints, afternoon game. Saints at the Seahawks. Seahawks now a seven-point favorite. No longer seven and a hook.
31:54
Seahawks seven-point favorite is a very popular, I think this will be the single most popular survivor play because there is no other natural spot to play Seattle later. No, no future value.
32:05
So this is the spot to play them. What could go wrong? What could go wrong, Gil? Uh, no bet for me. The, look, Seattle's got some injuries. They're wor- d- working through, too. This is not perfect, but I'm shoving, man.
32:16
Yeah. Survivor is all in on Seattle. Hope will... Give me some of that Cowboys luck from last week. I might too, but it is not the optimal way to play, 'cause I think most will be on it. Yeah.
32:25
Ch- Chargers minus two and a half hosting the Broncos. A early season AFC West battle. Um, I bet the Chargers, and the Chargers are one of my millions plays. Okay. Completely understand it. We're slightly oppo.
32:37
I teased up the Broncos, but there's still plenty of points that could land in between. All right. Also in the afternoon, Cowboys at the Bears. [laughs] What a barmer. Cowboys favored by one now at Soldier Field.
32:48
Yeah, this will be one of two games that make or break my week. Uh, that Packers, uh, side obviously has to get through, and then I am heavily invested in the over on this game, uh, at 48 and a half on the open.
32:59
But man, I, there's, 50 and a half, there's still only one way I could play it, and that's over. Both- Both... these defenses are terrible. First stop wins. Yeah [laughs], for real, for real.
33:06
50 and a half is the number there. Uh, Sunday Night Football. Oh, no, one more afternoon. Pardon me. Arizona at San Francisco. Two undefeateds in the NFC West, where it appears that Brock Purdy's going.
33:17
He has been- I don't... I don't trust Shanahan at all this time. I don't either. He's been practicing all week apparently. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. He's been out there for a couple practices, yes. Okay.
33:26
I don't know how much, though. That's always, like, the, they showed him off to the media portion, you know? Yeah. You don't know how much else he did. All right. We'll do the primetime games on the other side.
33:36
And Paul Carr for a little international football, otherwise known as football. Premier League play. We had no Champions League plays from him this week, though. Champions. What was that all about? Yeah. It's my fault.
33:47
I'm just a terrible producer and guest booker. Who's the number one champion? So. Coming back to Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:46
Bob, Paul Carr about to join us for, uh, for a little, uh, Premier League. Yep. Uh, last two games for the weekend before we get to Paulie. Uh, Chiefs at Giants Sunday night.
34:54
Chiefs a six-point favorite now, uh, at the New York Giants. Total's at 45. The proverbial must-win situation for the Kansas City/Omaha Chiefs, who do not want to fall to 0 and 3.
35:06
'Cause you fall to 0 and 3, you do not make the playoffs. Kinda how it works. Not touching. I got absolutely nothing. L- Not survivor, not nothing. Yeah. Lean to the under. If I, if I made you, I like...
35:19
I've had fun play- playing this game this week- Yeah... 'cause this, this game is brutally tough, I think. If I made you play a side, who'd you play? Giants +6. Me too. Me too. Monday night, Lions at Ravens.
35:28
Ravens are four and a half point favorites. This too was a millions play for me on the Ravines. Yeah, me too. Yeah, I, I, that's a bet for me, will be a millions play for me as well.
35:38
Um, Ravens, uh, I, I'm interested to see this game. I, I think the Lions are still gonna be one of the better teams in the NFC, but man, Ra- Ra- Ravens, th- that squad is so solid put together right now. Yeah.
35:50
Um, its number's come down, though. Number's come down.
35:52
So in addition to the, uh, guessing lines plays that I made, I added the Rams, I added the Chargers minus two and a half, Rams plus three and a half, Ravens minus four and a half as bets as well for all.
36:01
Uh, let's talk some Premier League, but before we do, he is a Miami Dolphins fan, so I'd be remiss if I didn't ask him about his team, which of course fell to 0 and 3 last night at Buffalo.
36:10
It's Paul Carr from True Media Networks. You can follow him on Twitter at, get this clever handle, Paul Carr, C-A-R-R. How you doing, Paul? Yeah, I came up with that one myself, Gil. Yeah. Well done. Well done.
36:22
Yeah, thank you. Thank you. I'm surprised you were the only one, actually. Uh- Um, what about- I- What about your Dolphins?... I wasn't originally, actually.
36:26
Somebody else had it, and he's quit Twitter, and I got it from him, and- Oh, nice... that was that thing. That, mine was the same way.
36:32
The Spanky story is still the best with that one, where he's like, "Uh, what's it worth it to you?" Oh, yeah. [laughs] He just let the guy talk first. He's like, "All right, I'll do it." Mine was like Paul's, though.
36:40
Yeah. Like, I don't know how in tw- you know, two, 2010 it w- Kelly Bidlin was taken, but somehow, like, Matt Brown figured out in 2018 it was back alive. Yeah. So, got it. Yeah. Uh, Paul, your Dolphins, 0 and 3.
36:51
[laughs] Though they c- but though they comported themselves kinda, kinda nicely last night. They did. How do you feel about it? Yeah
36:57
Uh, so okay, so the optimistic fan side of me says, "Hey, they looked like a real team last night. That's progress." And their upcoming schedule, like the next couple games, Jets and Panthers,
37:08
uh, and then Chargers, Browns, Falcons. It's like that's not, you know, four of those games are gonna be roughly toss-ups. So- Gotta, gotta win a couple of those, right? That's the problem. Yeah.
37:18
They almost have to go four and one. There's almost, there's pretty much no margin for error, 'cause their next three after that are Baltimore, Buffalo, Washington- Whoops... uh, before it gets a little easier.
37:26
So yeah, there's, there's just zero margin for error the rest of the way, which is not the thing you want to be saying after three games. Yeah.
37:34
Home Jets at Panthers, and then two weeks later at Browns, but everything else is Chargers at Falcons, Ravens, Bills. Commanders is in Spain. Right. And then a bye week, week 12. So yeah. Right. Yikes.
37:47
And the, and the end isn't terrible, but again, you- By then, yeah. Right. You lost a home game to New England, which is definitely should've been a win. You lost against... You got smoked by the Colts.
37:57
That, you know, was kind of a coin flip type of game. So there's just already no margin for error for a team that didn't have a lot to begin with from an on-the-field standpoint.
38:05
You know, if Tua gets hurt or if the defense can't do something, things like that. So there's just not much margin for error the rest of the season, and it's way too early to be saying that.
38:13
Did you w- did you want Mc- McDaniels to get fired? I mean, I don't really see, you know, what, what good would it do other than... I mean, yeah, what good would it do? I mean,
38:25
you're not gonna hire the guy who's going to take over next season in all likelihood. You're...
38:29
You, you hire a new guy, I don't think it'd make much difference as far as like are you tanking for a number one pick type of thing. I don't think that matters much. So
38:37
I, I'm not against it, but I don't see much reason to do it. There's just not a lot of upside.
38:41
I think there's more upside if you keep him and on the off chance they can make a run through a relatively soft schedule- Okay... than if you fire him and kinda start from scratch.
38:50
Uh, let's get to, uh, let's get to international football. Soccer, as we call it. Football. Uh, football, as they call it, uh, in other parts of the world. Um, first, Champions League this week.
39:02
Did you not make any plays in the Champions League? Oh, I went 6 and 0. You guys didn't get those picks? [laughs] No, we didn't. What happened? No, nothing? Uh, no. No. I had a few.
39:10
It's, the, the league phase is really weird.
39:12
It's the second year they've done it where it's just one giant table of 36 teams, and you're never quite sure how serious teams are gonna take it, especially early, when 24 of those 36 advance.
39:22
So I had a few plays, but I'm pretty cautious early on when the games mean a little bit less. All right. To the Premier League.
39:28
We do have plays in that as Paul Carr looks to move the chains once again with the weekend plays. One on Saturday. It is a total. Yeah, we're going to Liverpool-Everton. I'm taking the under two and a half.
39:39
I've probably done this half a dozen times on your show over the years in this matchup. Uh, it's a, traditionally, it's a, it's a rivalry game. This is like the Ravens-Steelers type. Ooh.
39:48
If I'm comparing it to an NFL rivalry, and those games always seem to be like 19-17. Uh, this is a, you know, a tight type of rivalry. Their stadiums are very close to each other in Liverpool.
39:59
And they played twice last year, 1-0. One game was actually 2-2, but the underlying numbers were far less than that. So Everton is just gonna keep it tight also.
40:08
That's what David Moyes, their manager, does, tries not to give up a lot of good chances. They're giving up the fourth worst shots in the league, so that's good from a defensive perspective. Liverpool's in first place.
40:18
They're unbeaten. They've won all their games, but they really haven't been that good.
40:22
They're kinda, they've stolen some points, and they're, they look good, but not, like, undefeated, run away with the league type of good. So I like under two and a half here. Everton keeps it close.
40:31
Liverpool's, Liverpool's attack has not been as good as their results would indicate. Yeah, Liverpool, the, uh, the only undefeated, undrawn team, if you will, in the Premier League.
40:40
Uh, Liverpool 12 points through four games, the max that you can get, uh, with a three-point lead over Arsenal and the rest of the field. By the way, Everton themselves in sixth currently- Yeah...
40:51
in the early stages of a 38-match Premier League season. Uh, to Sunday, where I believe it's our first ever appearance by Sunderland in a bet. Is that true? Ah, it might be. Yeah. Did I...? Really? I'm trying to think.
41:04
I don't think I had them. Wow. In a... Well, they've been out of the Premier League for a few years. Yeah. Uh, so I have Sunderland-Aston Villa, both teams to score no, minus 110.
41:14
Uh, so Gil, there are, in the top seven leagues in England, that's basically all the ones that are professional or close to it, there are 164 teams. There is one team that has not scored yet this season.
41:26
It is Aston Villa. Wow. And that's not good. N- no goals in four games. I'm told that's not good. It's not great. Yeah. I'm to- told it's not good, yeah. Yeah.
41:34
Sunderland has four goals, but they only average about eight shots a game, so they're not an attacking menace either.
41:39
So these are two of the bottom three teams in the league in expected goals, in shot quality, and, uh, again, Sunderland's taken the fewest shots in the league. So both of these teams trying to figure it out.
41:47
Sunderland trying just to stay in the league. They're off to a decent start, but the underlying numbers suggest that they're due for some regression already.
41:54
So I'm just, I haven't seen anything from either of these teams that suggests they're going to turn into any kind of attacking juggernaut. So both teams to score no, minus 110.
42:03
I don't know which one will scrape out a goal and win this one one-nil if anything, but I don't think both of them will get a goal.
42:09
By the way, for the American sports fan, and I'm, and I'm raising my hand, can you give me the seven leagues from Premier League on down? What are the other six? Uh- Ooh...
42:16
Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two, uh, National League, and then National League, I think it's North and South. Wow. I just wanna point out I could've gotten the top four.
42:27
You could've got the top four? Yeah, I could have. Yeah, yeah. I always- Could've jumped in... I always mess up the second one. Champ... What's it called? The Champ... Yeah, Championship. Championship. Championship.
42:34
Yeah, that's just the word. Not the Champions League, the Championship. The, just, just Championship. Yeah. It's a championship. Makes no sense. Right. Um- Yeah...
42:39
hey, Paul, real quick, what's the, what was the average amount of shots in a, uh, on goal from a side in a Premier League game? Uh, shots on goal. Let me see. I might have that up here, right, actually. Do, do, do, doo.
42:50
I know you mentioned they, the, uh- You're looking at, like, in the 12 to 15 range- Okay... somewhere in there for an average team. What- So if you're looking at, yeah, you're at 50% or less.
42:57
What about the, the worst offensive teams? How many shots on goal do they get off in, in a full soccer match? Yeah. So I'm looking, like, so far this season. So Burnley has the fewest.
43:06
They have 30 in four games, so you're looking at seven and a half a game. So that's usually about where you're gonna end up. [laughs] That's where the American sports fan sensibility just goes crazy. It's like, "Really?
43:15
The seven and a half a game?" For a full soccer game, that's all they're, that's all they're getting on goal. Um- Right. All right. That, that's just shots period. Yeah, it's just shots period. Don't have to be on goal.
43:23
Yeah. Oh, shots. Not even on goal. Uh, Sunderland- Right. Yeah... Aston Villa, both teams to score no, meaning he believes there will be a shutout or a nil-nil tie. That's how you win that one.
43:34
And then finally, Arsenal and Man City, I guess, the game of the week. Yeah, big one. Yeah. Yeah, this is a big one. I think Arsenal's looked the best of any team so far this year. They're in second with nine points.
43:44
Their defense has pretty much picked up where it left off the last year or two, the best in the league.
43:49
Given up the, what, second fewest expected goals, lowest shot quality so far, and Arsenal's played City well the last couple seasons.
43:55
Uh, 2-2 draw last year even though Arsenal was down a man, and then Arsenal won 5-1 in the other one. Uh, that was one of those games where everything goes in. They scored on five, uh, five goals on 12 shots.
44:06
Uh, but Man City, I picked them to win the title. Uh, their defense has not gotten any better.
44:10
It's still kind of a mess, so I think Arsenal's gonna be able to pick it apart, uh, get a goal or two, and then do what they do and defend and not give up a lot to City, who's also battering, battling injuries.
44:20
So I like Arsenal just to win this one outright, minus 110 at home. Yeah, Man City two and two to start the season. Uh, a three-pack of plays for Paul Carr.
44:29
And again, uh, Beastin subscribers will have that all at the Beastin Picks page for you as well. Paul, thank you. Um, I hope the Dolphins' season gets better, man. That's all I can say. Me too.
44:39
Gotta beat the Jets next week. Got it. Beat the Jets. The proverbial must-win situation. Paul Carr from True Media Networks, everybody, right here on A Numbers Game.
44:45
Chris Felica on the other side, all his bets, horse racing included, next on A Numbers Game.
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