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Sep 1, 2025
A Numbers Game | September 1, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 1, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of the Numbers Game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
This right here, ladies and gentlemen, is my little buddy, Kelly Bidleman. How you doing, Kelly? Doing great. How you doing? What's your weight? 229. Put on a pound or two over the weekend. I- It happens, though...
0:28
I've decided, because you're gaining on me, to, uh, go into overdrive mode. Better get going, Alexander. Hey, catching me. Better get going. Good for you, man. What, what... 100 pounds would be what weight? 216. 216.
0:40
Let's go. Very exciting for you. Trying to, trying to get there b- before the end of the year. Okay.
0:44
I c- So I can, then I can say in two years, in a two-year time span, I lost 100 pounds I probably shouldn't ask this on air, but can I ask you a personal question? Yeah, I don't care.
0:54
Is, is it being done with a speed that will require you to then do something cosmetic afterwards? I don't know. I don't think so. Okay. But we'll see. Okay. Well, I hope you don't mind the question. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
1:04
I don't care. I was curious. Oh, it's been in my head the entire time, too.
1:07
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, I am, uh, thrilled to have this guy on the show, because we're gonna talk college football with him and pro football, but also because I have a documentary recommendation for him, and, uh, we sort of vibe on this.
1:18
It's Wes Reynolds, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @WesReynolds1. That's the number one. Good morning to you, sir. Happy Labor Day. Good morning, gentlemen.
1:28
Happy Labor Day. I, I, I wish it was a little bit happier, because I miss the Labor Day telethon. I was having that conversation last night.
1:36
Uh, we used to, of course, have the Jerry Lewis Labor Day Telethon, and after the game was over, it's like, "Eh, I kind of want something to put on as I fade into the Sunday night."
1:45
You know, was looking for some Jerry Lewis or some Tony Orlando, and that telethon is no more, unfortunately. Telethons. Are you familiar with telethons, Kelly? Oh, yeah. Sure. Sure, sure.
1:56
This was before your time, right? I don't know why... Uh, not that this is related- Yeah... but, like, y- you know that lounge act we're gonna go see in a couple weeks? Yes. Wes has got to come with us, right?
2:05
Oh, Wes, you gotta come. Yeah, Wes. You gotta come with us to Al Bernstein's lou- lounge act at The Tuscany. Oh, absolut- absolutely. I've always meant to kind of, to see Al, uh, do that. Yeah.
2:14
That, that's like old Vegas.
2:16
Like, that's what we lament in Vegas today, how it's, like, overpriced and, you know, tourism has been slightly down, and it's like I wanna get back to, like, the old Vegas, man, with the old lounge act and the old spirit of the town, and, uh, that'd be a perfect place to do it.
2:31
By the way, uh, this is a terrible memory, but my only memory of a telethon growing up was not the Labor Day telethon. It was a telethon in April, and I wanna say it was just a standard March of Dimes telethon.
2:42
But I remember it was April, because I happened to have it on the TV. This is 1984. Don't hold me to the year.
2:51
And Jim Berry, who was a local DC, uh, newsman, later became famous in Miami for being a local newsman, announced to all of us that Marvin Gaye had been shot by, shot and killed by his father- Ugh... during the telethon.
3:04
That's my only telethon memory back in the day. So anyway, sorry to bring it down. Well, that's a horrible memory [laughs] Gil. Yeah. I wish you had a better one. Well, you said telethon. That's the only thing I got.
3:13
All right, here's a docu- I know... here's the doc- I know. Some- Here, here's your documentary recommendation. Go ahead. It has nothing to do with sports, everybody. You ready for this?
3:19
Netflix, Unknown Number, The High School Catfish? Question mark. Unknown Number, The High School Catfish. I'll say nothing else. Just watch it. Fantastic. Incredible. Horrible.
3:37
All of it. Wes Reynolds, there's your documentary recommendation. All right, college football. I'm intrigued. Yes. I will have to look that up. I will say nothing else. I just, I... It's amazing.
3:46
Uh, okay, in all, in all horrible ways. We were talking earlier. FSU probably looked the best. LSU is up there. Um, obviously, there are candidates for that.
3:57
What was your biggest takeaway, either to the good or the bad, group them for us, in college football? Yeah.
4:05
In, in terms of the team that I was most impressed with, like where you say, "Okay, this team can go the distance," to me, it was LSU. I absolutely think it was LSU.
4:15
I thought at, of the major wins that you mentioned there, uh, leading in, Gil, I was most impressed with them. And I know the score. It's like, eh, it was only 17 to 10, like, oh, it wasn't a great game.
4:27
It was a great game for LSU's defense, and that's who it needed to be great for, because we know that they have an experienced quarterback in Garrett Newsome.
4:35
We know that the offense is gonna be very good, and the offensive line is gonna be very good, and they can run the ball.
4:41
We didn't know about the defense, because that's what's been lacking, I think, in Brian Kelly's tenure down there in Baton Rouge.
4:48
Now it looks like they have it, because that was a Clemson offense that a lot was expected out of these guys, with Cade Klubnik back for his third year at quarterback.
4:57
And LSU, I think, for the better part of the, of three to three and a half quarters really shut this team down. So that was impressive for LSU.
5:05
Like, they would be a team I would recommend if you wanna bet a future to, to win the whole thing, to win the national championship. I still think you're getting as high as 12 to 1 out there.
5:15
That would be one I would be willing to add. I, I was very impressed with what I saw from them.
5:19
All right, LSU with a 17 to 10 win versus Clemson at Clemson, uh, one of the marquee matchups that kind of lived up to the hype. Thought LSU should probably have won it by more on the scoreboard than they actually did.
5:30
So Wes jumping on them, adding them to his portfolio. Let me ask it a different way, 'cause I think for gambling purposes, this is the way to ask it.
5:38
Obviously, you know, impressions are going to be formed week one, and, you know, famously, it's overreaction week, right? When we go into week two.
5:48
The other way of looking at that is what's a way we can exploit what people think or what the market thinks they saw week one? I'll give an example.
5:57
Uh, some people might think, "Yeah, Ohio State, even in victory over Texas, were they really all that good?" I feel like they really are that good, and that Ryan Day almost was conservative on purpose, right?
6:09
He's like, "I'm gonna just, uh, J- I'm not gonna ask Julian Sayin to do anything. We're just gonna play this as conservative as possible, but really we're awesome Um, that's just one suggestion.
6:18
I don't know if you agree with that or not, but what would be the answer for you either to the good or bad on that? What's something we can exploit market-wise?
6:26
Yeah, I, I think it's a little, I think it's a little bit game by game. Uh, I, I, I don't think that, and you mentioned Ohio State, like no, they're not a fade, I think necessarily going forward.
6:37
They did get the win and I was even, what really kind of surprised me was that their defense was that good right away because that, that's why I was a little bit down on Ohio State and a little bit more up on Penn State, uh, in the Big 10 and, and still feel that way about Penn State.
6:51
I know they didn't cover against Nevada. Nevada got in the back door late. But with Ohio State, I was looking at that defensive line and I said, "Man, they've lost everybody."
7:00
And I know that they're reloading with four stars, but I, and they have a new defense, but, but they shut Texas down, uh, for the most part.
7:08
Texas was able to run the ball on them a little bit, but the secondary was that good, led by Caleb Downs for Ohio State.
7:15
Arch Manning had nowhere to throw the football, and Texas got no separation, uh, from their receiving core. So that was, that wa- it almost was like game over once Ohio State was able to stymie that passing game.
7:27
So, you know, when you look and you're doing all your research over the summer and you look at a team and you kind of try to pick them apart, okay, it's like, okay, this is a negative part or, or this is what they do well.
7:38
Sometimes you just gotta realize, man, talent's gonna win out, and that's what happened with Ohio State because I thought that they were gonna struggle a little bit early losing all that defensive line.
7:48
FSU, Kelly Biddle's FSU Seminoles really that good? Is Bama really that bad or some combination of the two?
7:56
Might be a combination of the two, and I, I had Florida State on Saturday and I was kinda like, I didn't feel good about it. Like, that was one I was like, "Eh, I'm ready to lose."
8:04
Uh, you know, maybe they're gonna hang in for a half and then just get blown out.
8:08
But this kid, Tommy Castellanos, who is essentially, I don't wanna say kicked off, that's probably not the right phrasing here, but w- they let him walk at BC basically as, as the quarterback when he lost his job, and he came in with some attitude, man.
8:22
He came in like, like, "We're gonna beat these guys," and, you know, was very confident, and they were. And they, and it was good to see Florida State play good football again the same weekend that Miami did.
8:34
I even commented on that on the, on the X machine last night. Like, when's the last time Florida State and Miami won a big game the same weekend- So true... in college football? 'Cause Gil, you and I- Yeah...
8:44
you and I grew up Florida State and Miami were like it, you know- Let's go... in the 1980s and into the 1990s. But- Wide left... I was very impressed with that FSU. Yes. Yeah. Yes, absolutely, that legendary rivalry.
8:55
Yeah. October 4th at the dope, let's go. Fighting Falicas. [laughs] It's all aboard. [laughs] We took one game. One game. It's all aboard. One game, that's all it took. It's all aboard. Uh, let's talk Heisman.
9:08
Obviously, we were talking about this earlier.
9:09
Arch goes from the short shot to 16 to one in one game, where his stats end up being sort of cosmetic by the flourish at the end, um, whatever stats he did have, 170 yards passing.
9:21
Of the players you saw at the current numbers, I was highlighting Dampier obviously a week after a summer where JVT hired, uh, was, was talking about him all summer long. I know you might have as well.
9:33
Um, who's the guy after one week where you're like, "Okay, I can see it now. This is who I'm betting"?
9:40
Uh, you know, probably, and he's a shorter price, he's not the shortest price, but probably Carson Beck at Miami, and then we've seen that dip to, uh, to 12 to one.
9:49
Uh, you know, Miami's got a good offensive line, and it looks like Miami has some dudes if the coach doesn't screw it up, which he tried to last night. Oh, he did. He tried to. Yeah.
9:59
You know, it was like, man, Mario Cristobal, you're really going for the jugular here, bud- [laughs]... playing for that field goal to go up 24 to 14.
10:06
It's like he wanted, somebody commented to me and I retweeted it, he wanted to kick that field goal on third down. Oh, geez. He totally wanted to. Wes. He didn't even wanna mess with the fourth down. Wes, it's so funny.
10:15
I texted right at that third down plunge right in the middle. I was like, "Marcus Freeman coulda laid minus 2500 that that was the play call right there." Completely true. Yeah, no, no, no question.
10:27
Uh, but a impressive win for Miami, and you know, the U looks like they got some dudes at the receiver position. A couple really great catches- Oof... by those guys.
10:36
So Carson Beck, uh, uh, gets, uh, gets, uh, taken down a little bit in terms of the price.
10:41
Uh, that was the one that really stood out to me because if you look at the top, Newsome, I think is always gonna be one of the top choices.
10:48
Uh, Jeremiah Smith from Ohio State, the receiver's always gonna be a top choice. Sellers got cut yesterday in terms of his price, but man, I wasn't that impressed with South Carolina.
10:59
I thought that they got some breaks in that game to get away from Virginia Tech, and the Hokies just couldn't stay out of their own way. Um, by the way, C.J. Daniels, early candidate for catch of the year.
11:10
You weren't kidding about that. Mm-hmm. Um, okay, and then do we have anything we're looking forward to, uh, a bit tonight between UNC and TCU? How are you playing this? Have not bet this.
11:21
Maybe would lean a little bit under in the first half. We have seen these games, these big standalone almost primetime games, slow starts offensively, uh, for these two teams.
11:30
That total's already been hit a bit, so you probably would wanna reduce your exposure. You're not getting the best number, but maybe under first half tonight with TCU and the Tar Heels. Under first half.
11:40
Again, a lot, a lot of folks with that handicap saying Belichick will put together a good defense, right? He's got a couple studs apparently on the defense. We shall see. More with Wes on the other side coming back.
11:50
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. We invite you to check out the sharp plays already there. They don't just follow the market, they help move it. That's what they say.
12:08
Powered by advanced AI, plugged into trusted insider sources, the sharp plays delivers the edge serious bettors use every day. Check 'em out. Uh, they deliver documented results, public logs, and transparent receipts.
12:19
Sharpplays.com, trusted by pros, watched by the books. Visit sharpplays.com and stay ahead of the line. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin, we get tweets at BeatingTheBook Always appreciate it from everybody.
12:32
Uh, Rich PSM: "Here's another way to play the Padres in September. Adjusted season wins 91 and a half over minus 130. Hey, I'm surrendering pre-flop under 86, but hopefully with your month thoughts this is a bailout."
12:43
Uh, Rob Graham: "Also, Kelly, your incredible weight loss has inspired me to get into more manageable weight, as I was tipping the scale at 165 pounds.
12:51
In a month I've dropped 27 pounds, so thank you for being my positive inspiration." 27 from 165 or 27 to 165? Wow. Yeah. Wow. Rob, go easy if you're- [laughs] Yeah.
13:04
That's a lot of weight I wanted to say, "Hey, good for you." Yeah. But yeah, it's, uh- Rob, you're scaring me. Yeah, you're scaring me too, Rob. Uh, Sam Fe- But hey, good for you. Yes.
13:10
Whatever, whatever's healthy for you. Sam Fichette: "Utah State was such a great handicap by the Dr. Bob last week. UTEP quarterback was truly garbage."
13:17
And then, uh, Michelin Man Boy: "Can't get enough of survivor talk, saying this is not too late to get involved in anti-survivor." Yes, that's also an, a different kind of contest as well.
13:26
"Picking a team to lose each week, have to be very spot-driven, finding good teams who are due for a letdown in a specific week."
13:33
And then Tony Farmer, our buddy at Tony's Market Tips, he says, "You're correct to say with survivor pools there's no prize to get knocked out in week nine instead of week three.
13:40
But with Circa, I think it's important to recognize that with the marketplace now there's a percentage of players who are only playing with the intent to sell before Thanksgiving." That's true, Tony, there is.
13:48
You're right. That's a whole little cottage industry of its own. Not the majority of players. Hey, it's great that it's an option. Yeah. It is great that it's an option. That's all I'll say. Yep.
13:57
I- is it my intention to get to a point where I can sell Gil? No. My intention is to win the whole damn thing. It's certainly not the point of a segment I wanna do, let's put it that way. W- w- will I- Yes...
14:07
heavily consider it if I get that far along? Oh, it's a consideration, for sure. Oh, there, there were times last year where I was like, "I'd be selling right now, I'd be selling right now."
14:14
May- not the whole thing, but, you know. Right. Up to 49%. Bro, if I, if I get far, you don't think I'll be like, you know, um, F- Fezzik, how much, how, how many percent- Mm... are you willing to take from me now?
14:26
Crack, how mu- what percentage are you taking from me now? Right? I would totally do that. All right, and, and it was the w- ugh, Survivor Sweat, was that the name of the website? Survivor Sweat, yeah.
14:34
Where you could buy, like, a percentage. Yeah. Right? It's all marketplace. So you could sell 1% here, 1% there. Yeah, man. 5%. Yeah, man.
14:40
Wes Reynolds kind enough to join us for segment, uh, number two here on a Numbers Game at VSiN. Uh, he joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
14:50
Week one, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, Wes, week one of the National Football League a little more than 72 hours away. Uh, do you have a play on Thursday- Yeah... or Friday night? Let's start there.
15:00
I am aware of it. I've got my 20 different channels that the National Football League- Ugh... is being televised this year. So I've got 'em, I've got 'em all lined up and where I need to go.
15:09
Uh, a couple plays I've made, and then I'm looking through it. Because week one to me, and I've... You know, you found that out in college football.
15:17
With these lines that are up forever, it is hard to find some advantages the closer you get to game day. It is very difficult.
15:26
So you're just kinda hoping to, like, get through, I think, week one with college football and with the NFL.
15:31
Because I like it when the lines come out on Sunday night or Monday morning, and then I can delve into them and I can play against the overreactions like we're doing with college football.
15:40
But for week one, so far, uh, I have a little Green Bay money line against the Lions.
15:45
I, I think the Lions, I'm, I'm just a little low on these guys this year, because I think that it's a big downgrade from Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator to John Morton, who has not been an offensive coordinator I think since, like, 2017, 2018.
15:59
So that's a long time. So I, I'm, I'm down on the Lions. I did play- It really is. It has nothing to do with the Micah trade, even though it did kinda move it a little bit.
16:08
Uh, Green Bay money line, and you could still lay under three if you don't wanna lay that money line, so that's one I've already got in pocket, as with Cleveland at plus six, it's five and a half right now, would still take it against the Cincinnati Bengals.
16:20
Just, those divisional home dogs on week one historically have done very well. That's such a great point about, about Morton with the Lions. Hasn't been a, hasn't been a coordinator, hasn't called plays since 2017.
16:34
Um, let's take the great Joe Jackson Gibbs, right, who won three Super Bowls and retired in 1992, and then came back, was it 11 years later I believe it was, in 2003 for Gibbs 2.0.
16:46
In those 11 years, he went from literally running an offense that was always ahead of everybody, right?
16:54
In, in whatever form, whatever player personnel he had, he always was able to X and O and adjust and just be ahead of the game.
17:02
In the 11 years he was gone, you know, the phrase that people like to use is the game passed him by. Yeah, the game just evolved, right? And so you couldn't apply early '90s, '80s concepts to football in the 2000s.
17:16
You just couldn't. It was like a totally different sport. So that's very interesting what you say about Morton, because it's not quite 11 years, but it's, it's up there. Eight years. Yeah, no, no question about it.
17:28
And, and I, I just think that th- when you have cohesiveness with these coordinators, and when you have success, it's always hard to keep these guys, no question about it, because they get head coaching jobs.
17:39
But when you have that cohesiveness and it gets disrupted, all of a sudden you think, "Okay, they're gonna perform to that same standard that they have the previous few years," and it just doesn't happen.
17:51
It just doesn't work that way in this league, because like you say, it's constantly evolving. Absolutely. Uh, okay. What, what else do you like here this weekend? Or what, what have you decided?
18:00
You're in both survivor and in, uh, and in millions? Yes. Okay. Have you s- have you decided on... H- I don't know, how many entries do you have in survivor? Ju- just, uh, one for me, and then one that I'm splitting.
18:14
Okay. And, and, and that's it. I, I don't, I don't get to go the max entries and, and, and go too deep with it, because I haven't obviously [laughs] had a lot of success in it, so.
18:23
Have y- have you decided what your survivor pick is, and have you decided what your five contest picks are gonna be? I have not decided, uh, uh, what my survivor pick i- is going to be as of yet.
18:37
Uh, so, uh, uh, still waiting on that. In terms of what I think my contest picks are going to be, I at least know a couple of them.
18:46
Uh, I'm probably gonna, I'm probably gonna use Green Bay against Detroit, and more than likely going to use, uh, Cleveland, uh, a- against Cincinnati. But it, it might be- Mm-hmm...
18:58
a struggle to find five because- It's a tough week... with what I think you have this... Yeah. Like, it's a really good teaser week.
19:04
If, if, if you love to play teasers, there's a lot of teaser games, uh, on, on this board this week. But man, it is hard to tr- find five, I think, in week number one. Cleveland.
19:15
Explai- uh, walk us through the Cleveland play. T- catching the points. Why are we confident about that? Yeah.
19:20
I, I'm just a little bit nervous about Cincinnati's defense, uh, on the road in week number one, and, and, and e- even, even against Cleveland, uh, with the, uh, the ageless wonder, Joe Flacco.
19:31
And just the home dogs, uh, in division have been very solid in week number one. Cincinnati did just get Hendrickson back, uh, and get him signed into the deal. But,
19:43
I, I think Cincinnati, new coordinator, 'cause Lou Anarumo, by the way, now in Indianapolis, he is the Colts' defensive coordinator. So that's just, that's one of those, like, road favorites in the division.
19:53
It's, it's like that seems like a big number. So, uh, I've already got Cleveland in pocket.
19:58
We'll see what the line is when the contest lines officially come out, because there are sometimes in these contests you have to use games that you wouldn't otherwise bet.
20:06
I know, uh, our friend Chris Simock, Las Vegas Chris, uh, you know, said that to me one time and I never forgot it. You gotta be willing to use contest games that you wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole betting-wise.
20:17
That is, that is why Chris, Las Vegas Chris, that is why Fezzik, right, that's why they're such good, consistent, uh, contest players because they are very mechanical about that.
20:27
If they're getting the best of it, they don't overthink it, they go with that. Um, does that work every single year? No.
20:34
Sometimes it doesn't randomly, but most years it will, it will have you competing if you adhere to that kind of thing.
20:41
Whereas the rest of us, Todd Wishnep does a great job of, uh, of saying this, where the rest of us are arrogant enough to think that we're smarter than the mar- [laughs] than the market. He's right. Right?
20:50
That's why being a robot sometimes, uh, is, is better than being an actual, uh, person who thinks you, you know something. Um, okay.
20:57
Give us the, in, in closing here, remind us the most out, of the most outlying Wes Reynolds opinion of the year, either for an award, for a division win, whatever it is, and the one thing that is being thrown around by a lot of people that you've heard anecdotally this summer that you just can't get behind.
21:17
Yeah. I, I guess one that maybe is a little bit outside the numbers, Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South. Uh, I, I think that this team offensively is going to be really good.
21:26
I think Trevor Lawrence finally has some good coaching with Liam Cohen, uh, around him. Defensively they're gonna give up some points. That secondary's not great, so that team's gonna be in a lot of shootouts.
21:36
But I like Jacksonville. I just think that you could poke holes in every other team in the AFC South. So I went with Jacksonville.
21:43
And then, uh, I guess, uh, in, in terms of, you know, thing, something that I really can't believe, uh, that to me in the NFL might be, you know, the Los Angeles Rams.
21:55
A lot of people really believe in this team, and I know they got a lot of talent, uh, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but I wonder if with that quarterback.
22:04
Sometimes Father Time's undefeated, and we heard that back injury happen, and you just hear all these different random injuries, and they pile up. So I'm a little concerned about the Rams there in the NFC West.
22:15
All right, Wes. Appreciate it as always. Enjoy your Labor Day, man.
22:18
Full day baseball, a little college football tonight with, uh, UNC, first look at that, and not to mention the back half of the round of 16 of the US Open, man. Thank you, Wes. You bet, guys. Thanks for having me.
22:30
Wes Reynolds, everybody. @wesreynolds1 on the old Twitter machine. We'll come back. Uh, we'll look at those US Open odds to win, uh, both the men's and the ladies' side here. Hit the club.
22:40
As we begin, actually, I'll recap or, or review my bets for today as well, the three matches I have. Ed Feng will join us to talk NFL, and more survivor talk. It's a numbers game at VSiN.
22:49
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23:47
Um, oh, Rob Graham, the guy that we said, he said it was 165 and he lost 27 pounds, he clarified. He goes, "Whoops, that should've said 265." Okay, that makes more sense. "Down to 238." There we go.
23:58
He goes, "I'm not trying to be anorexic." We were worried about you, Rob, for there for a second. Xavier82, "Good news and bad news, Gil."
24:06
Good news is they have the Guardians juiced under 13 and a half wins this month at DraftKings. That would get us under our, uh, season win total under. "Go away, Guardians," he says. I agree.
24:16
But he goes, "Bad news, the new tax law has started in Illinois." Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Why is Zendaya trending, Kelly? That's what I really wanna know. I don't know. We'll look it up. It's, it's Zendaya.
24:28
She probably just said- Probably said two words... anything. A- anything. Yeah, two, two words. Right. Anything. She, she didn't, like, end, end her survivor or anything. Oh, it's her birthday. Happy 29th.
24:36
I don't know what my... If I was living in Illinois, I don't know w- how I would know
24:43
'Cause there are books that are just, that, that are just taking a minimum bet Well, it's funny you say that 'cause Xavier82, at least for the DraftKings side of things,
24:54
and I hate talking about tax stuff 'cause it's so boring on the radio, but since you bring it up,
25:00
they say the, this is DraftKings talking now, "The pass-through tax on certain wagers will begin at 25 cents and will increase to 50 cents for certain wagers in excess of 20 million annual combined wagers placed on DraftKings online sports books in Illinois."
25:16
So as soon as they exceed 20 million combined wagers, which I'm sure they'll do in a minute and a half- Yeah... right, they'll increase to 50 cents for certain wagers.
25:25
They say, "We will not be passing through the per wager tax on parlay wagers with a stake of $10 or more." Oh, my God.
25:32
"Single bets with a stake of $50 or more, bets placed using a bonus bet token, or bets placed by customers that are at Silver- So, okay, so-...
25:38
Loyalty status," blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah So straight bets at $50 or more they're not taxing on? That's what, that's what it looks like. So Circa's at 10 for that.
25:45
That's from just, like, sh- you know, this is shop around, compare all these differences from each book. 'Cause that effectively, if you're getting taxed on a bet- Yeah...
25:52
it, it effectively changes what you're, what the juice is, right? With money, what you're paying to p- uh, make that bet.
25:58
So John Harris just texted in, or just tweeted in, "Logging into my FanDuel account in Illinois, and this popped up. Important update for Illinois customers.
26:07
All bets placed in Illinois will include a 50 cent per bet fee to offset a per bet tax imposed by the Illinois state government. Book's passing it along to the customer." Yep.
26:19
Hey, listen- But that's what they, it sounds like they're not really doing that, though, as long as you're ta- you're making a big enough bet. Well, the FanDuel one didn't really- Didn't matter. Yeah...
26:26
didn't really seem to matter. Um, I just will say this. Did, did you catch the, did you catch the, the line you read of the DraftKings language, by the way?
26:33
And that, Danny sent me this yesterday, too, of the, so they're not gonna tax parlays. That's right. Good. Let's encourage more parlay betting out there. Of course we do. Absolutely.
26:42
We'll encourage- Let's encourage that... we'll encourage bigger bets, and we'll encourage parlays And you also, new feature coming to DraftKings now, the introducing the ghost leg of parlay,
26:51
where, uh, if your NFL week one Sunday parlay misses by a single leg, we'll ghost it and pay it, you out in cash, Gil. So just another, another encouragement. Just go bet more parlays. Go bet more parlays. Yeah.
27:04
L- listen, the books are bad here, but it's, it does start with the government and people who don't know betting starting with all this stuff. Oh, totally. Yeah, 100%. So let's not put it all on the books here.
27:17
But yeah, the books are doing their part to pass the ball. I'm just saying- Yeah... they're encouraging you to make these bets for a reason. No, no, no, you're 100% right about that.
27:23
What I'm saying is it all starts with the nonsense ab- uh, from people who don't know anything about betting, and then the books do their books thing- Mm-hmm... which is always, right, i-i-in, in poor faith. Mm-hmm.
27:36
Let's put it that way, as you're saying. Uh, US- But, but as far as just, you know, a marketing team, this is what they're sitting around thinking about all day when they're- All day long...
27:42
when they're looking that half their money's coming from parlays, it's, "Well, how do we market to that?" Half? Yeah, well, it's 70%, whatever it is. I- it's insane.
27:51
If we knew the true numbers of what's on these parlays, you know. Um, Joseph McCormick, "I live in Missouri, but currently need to play in Illinois. December 1st can't get here quickly enough."
28:04
I guess that's when Missouri gets legal betting. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Congrats again to Circa for landing one of those. Yeah. Congratulations. That was big. Congratulations to, uh, to Derek and company for that.
28:18
Um, okay, US Open. By the way, my US Open plays today, 'cause I think one of them, has one of them started or one of them's about to start here? Well, while you check, why don't we hit the club?
28:26
Oh, let's go country clubbing. Let's do it. [upbeat music] What ambiguous cocktails everybody's drinking. What's the other one?
28:38
There's some, whoever my alcohol expert is in the back, someone needs to break that down for me. It doesn't look like a very well-attended club, does it? Well, there's a lot, lot more room than, uh- Excess?...
28:48
Excess on Saturday night, yeah. A lot more room to get to that bar. Is the music just horrific for you? It's awful. Yeah. Yes, it's awful. Ugh. Our, our older ears can't take it. I, it's, yes. It's, it's too loud.
28:59
It's nothing that I can get behind. This is how, this is how our parents felt when they heard hip hop for the first time. They're like, "Well, what is this?" Well, I don't really c- it's not even an age thing.
29:07
When I was 23 years old, being in the club, I was like, "Well, does it have to be this loud?" Oh, I was the same way. "Does it have to be this loud?" I was the same way.
29:13
If y- you're, if I'm telling the truth, there was always a little internal dialogue going the same exact thing, like, "Really? We doing this?"
29:19
Like, like I gotta yell to talk to the person who's six inches away from me, right? Like- How am I gonna talk to this girl right here now? I'm g- I'm gonna go up to Gil's ear and scream in it so he can hear me.
29:28
[laughs] Uh, tennis plays today. One of them is about to start here. On the men's side, uh, it's Holger Rune plus 192 against Lorenzo Musetti. It is Felix Auger-Aliassime plus 120 versus Andrey Rublev.
29:40
And on the ladies' side, Osaka and Gauff. I'm on Naomi Osaka plus 123. So Rune and Auger-Aliassime on the men's side, Osaka on the ladies' side. They are all dogs.
29:51
The one is that, the one that is about to start is the Auger-Aliassime, Rublev match, which should be a banger, as the kids say. I, I got two comments/questions. Actually, one's a comment, one's a question. Mm-hmm.
30:03
Comment, this might be, like, the one-year anniversary, 'cause I don't remember when, when exactly we did this, when Gil thought he would stump me with, with spelling FAA on air. Oh, that's right. Well done.
30:15
And I, I nailed it. You did nail it. Felika texted in and said it was the most shocking thing he had ever heard on, on, on our show. It was, like, plus 1,500. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.
30:24
Uh, that was just the comment I had, but it feels about a- around a year, right? Uh-huh. That's prob- that's probably when he was playing well. Okay, and then question. Coco, you're going against Coco.
30:32
I think there was a lot of vibes from you, Zach, Drew, kinda anti-Coco heading into this tournament, concerned about the serve right and form. Yep.
30:39
How do you f- have you learned anything about, uh, about her through the first few matches, either positively or negatively? Um- No, I think all that st- still holds.
30:49
Okay, okay I always wonder s- uh, I wonder with a lot of these how much you even learn in the first week with some of these top seeded players. Uh, yeah.
30:56
I mean, you certainly learn that Alexander Bublik is playing the best tennis of his life and could beat anybody on any given day. Obviously, he plays Sinner, so that could end as well.
31:05
But, like, the level of tennis of a guy like that, you could not have seen. Right. I mean, he, he was playing, don't get me wrong, he won a couple tournaments here.
31:15
So, and hard courts has always been his favorite surface, but he didn't win them on hards. So you're like, "Well, can he transfer that over to what is supposed to be his favorite?"
31:23
And he's just, it's the greatest tennis of his life. Some, in that case, yes. But like- But with some of the others, no, you're right. Like- Yeah, like the top seeds, right?
31:29
Like, have you learned anything about Iga in week one? No, I learned that she's, if she wobbles- Like, do you feel better or worse about your bet? I feel as- Or n- nothing has changed? As great. Yeah. Okay.
31:38
She wo- she was down 5-1 to Collins Kaya in the first set the other day. She rallied back and won it. She's, she's a lot steelier than she used to be. Um, Collins Kaya certainly helped with some double faults.
31:51
But no, uh, you know, the, the rest of them, they were where they ought to be.
31:55
Marketa Vondrousova, your girl, not only taking down the adorable one, Jasmine Paolini, as we called it here on Friday, but took down Rybakina yesterday. That was big. Vondrousova. That was big. Kelly's girl.
32:06
So- All right, here are updated futures. Uh, updated futures. Uh, this is, again, heading into the f- the back half of the round of 16 today. Sabalenka, the short shot. Iga, now the second shot.
32:16
Uh, people don't like the wobble of Iga, I guess. Sabalenka, plus 175. Iga, plus 230. Then everybody else. Coco's eight to one. Jessie Pegula's nine to one. Jessie Pegula, never respected in the market.
32:27
C- as consistent as anybody, uh, as anybody. Vondrousova, 10 to one. Osaka, 14 to one. Krejickova with that amazing win overcoming eight match points against her against Taylor Townsend yesterday at 19 to one.
32:40
And our girl, by the way, Karolina Muchova, who we have 14 to one to win the quarter. Yes, sir. Two more wins and we get that, and she has a very winnable match today. She's 35 to one to win it all.
32:50
I think these are all correctly priced. I can quibble with it. S- Sviatek should be shorter than Iga, excuse me, than Sabalenka. Uh, Pegula should be a little shorter than Coco maybe.
33:00
Osaka should be a little shorter than Vondrousova. But other than that, they're about right. Men's side, not gon- much is gonna change there either.
33:07
It's still Sinner and Alcaraz with Djokovic being the third shot, but Djokovic is way below. So it's Sinner minus 110. It's Carlitos plus 120. Then it's Djokovic at 13 to one and everybody longer.
33:19
Look at Bublik at 50 to one. Um, what did Drew say? He said it a- about Wimbledon, he said it about this tournament. The men's tournament starts week one Sunday of the NFL during the men's final. Sinner, Alcaraz.
33:33
Starts as your 4:00 PM Eastern games are kicking off. Let's go Iga today. Let's go Muchova today. Let's go all our picks today. We'll come back, more survivor talk and Ed Fang from The Power Rank on the other side.
33:43
Numbers game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Think you're better than the experts, Kelly Bedell? Think you're better? Yeah. Prove it. In the- Okay...
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34:33
What was the point you were making about, uh, Circa Millions off air? Well, this Thursday game's becoming interesting to me. Yeah, it is. 'Cause it is seven and a half.
34:42
There are some sevens out there, seven at South Point. Shout out South Point always with, uh, minus 110 going on that. Um, if it, if the contest line is seven, I have a feeling I'm putting mine in early.
34:55
'Cause I don't know that, I, th- this is a tough week. This is a tough week, week one. It's a great, great slate of games. Yeah.
35:01
I think it's tough to find five that I'm gonna for sure love, so it might start with Eagles on Thursday night. Philly will be one of your five? You'll put it in earlier sooner than later. If it's seven.
35:10
Yeah, if it's seven, I pro- I'm probably in. Yeah. I wonder where the, uh, where the Steve Fezziks and the Las Vegas Chris is, w- how they navigate that kind of thing.
35:19
Like, they have the, remember Steve Fezzik's thing is I'll wait till the, wait till the very end for perfect information, but if you have an opportunity like that as one of your picks, do you, do you put it in early?
35:28
I don't really necessarily look at it as an opportunity [laughs] more, more so that, than, uh, there's just not five others that I like better. Well, that's what I mean by the opportunity- [laughs] Yeah...
35:38
to fill one of the spots. Yeah, I will, uh- Yeah... I think if it's seven, I'm probably using that. Uh, should we talk some more Survivor? Sure. Yeah. Um,
35:48
by the way, Tony, Tony Market, Tony Farmer with the, uh, the, the, uh, comment ye- earlier about, you know, important to note that some people now just try to get as far as they can so that they can, you know, sell off, was Tony's exact comment.
36:03
Um, which is something to keep in mind for people, right? He's absolutely right about that, what he said.
36:09
Um, you know, important to recognize that with the marketplace now, there's a percentage of players, pardon me, who are only playing with the intent to sell before Thanksgiving. Yeah.
36:19
What percentage of players do you think are, are, are looking at it that way? Like, like, that they have zero-
36:28
Zero j- Zero percent, uh, uh, of their mindset is to go actually win this thing, that they wanna just get far enough along- Yes... to monetize it? Yeah. 7%. No, I think it's less.
36:41
But I think their mind, but I think it will go over 7% as they, see, this is the, and this is the point of what I was saying earlier.
36:47
Even if that is their intent, you need to keep in mind the things we're talking about or that when we're talking about. Because if your entry after week nine is Not very good, right?
37:00
Then you really can't sell it for what you would've otherwise if it is a very properly set up entry. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I mean- So-... we, we saw that play out last year.
37:07
Let's, these are some of the things that Tony had sent last time when I was off. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This is awesome. He did, he did a great, uh... Go check out his article. He did a great job of writing up week one stuff.
37:17
H- attacking week one, 'cause we- we've seen y- you know, the carnage, right? The quote unquote carnage- Yeah... uh, of week one here in recent years. The Bengals, perfect example.
37:25
So yeah, Tony came on with me and Matt just a couple weeks ago. Trends. Um, went through a bunch of these. Great. Trends for big favorites losing in survivor week one.
37:31
This is, uh, Tony Farmer from Tony's Market Tips, or @tonysmarkettips on Twitter. Uh, preseason matters. They all had starting quarter- So this is trends for big favorites losing in survivor week one. Yep.
37:43
Preseason matters. A- and he, he classified a big favorite as five and a half points or more. Okay. 'Cause all these have to be big favorites.
37:50
Ooh, I'm glad he used that number, because I have something coming up similar. Uh, he says they all had starting quarterbacks who threw 17 or fewer passes in the preseason.
37:58
These are trends for big favorites losing in survivor week one. They all had starting quarterbacks who threw 17 or fewer passes in the preseason. Seven of the nine teams
38:08
had starting quarterbacks, so the nine teams that lost as five and a half point favorites or bigger, had starting quarterbacks who threw fewer passes in the preseason than their counterparts by an average of 20.28 fewer pass attempts.
38:22
Four of the nine had starting quarterbacks with zero snaps in the preseason, and six of the nine, six of the nine had starting quarterbacks who had seven or fewer pass attempts. So preseason matters. Yep.
38:33
Ergo, the headline. Let's go to the next one here from Tony. Shout out to Tony Farmer, who always helps us with survivor during the week, or during the year, I should say. Big favorite results since 2020.
38:44
2020 was when circus survivor began. Big favorites favored by five or more points on the closing line. Big home favorites, nine and seven straight up. Big road favorites, six and five.
38:56
Divisional big favorites, four and six. Non-divisional big favorites, 11 and six. All right. Can I, uh... Do we have one more? Hold, hold that divisional thought in your head. Yep. Do we have one more of these?
39:06
We do, yep. All right. Survivor big favorites results. Big favorites favored by five or more points on the closing line. This is week one results. Last year, two and one. Two years ago, it was two and two.
39:19
2022, four and five. So you see, sort of middling results throughout the years. Nothing too definitive there. Let me, let me dispel the division. Do we have another graphic, or was that- No, that's it.
39:29
Let me, let me dispel the division thing. And b- again, shout out to Jason Lisk over at, uh, Pool Genius for doing such a great job of this. So what we will find during survivor also is during the season, right?
39:40
People take themselves off games because of certain things they talk about. And one of the big ones is, "Oh, it's a division game. I can't pl- I can't possibly play that." Right? Yep. Can't play it, division game.
39:52
I don't wanna get stuck with that. The truth is that when a division game is lined at five points or more- Also, it was five that he used for big favorite. What's that? Five, not five and a half. Five.
40:05
That was on the other graphic. [laughs] Five. Right. Five points. Right. Over the last 23 years, by the way, this is before this last season that, uh, Jason did the study. The 23 years,
40:16
sample size is over 1,000 games each. Division rivalry games have resulted in fewer upsets among likely survivor picks than non-division games have. So if it's a division game with a line of five or greater,
40:31
there is not only nothing to this, you're actually more likely to win in a division game. Let's just break it down as Jason Lisk did. Spread range five to six and a half point spread.
40:40
So this is a five and a ha- six and a half point spread in a division game. Division winners, right, division, uh, favorites end up winning.
40:48
Remember, this is a straight up percentage we're looking at for survivor purposes. They end up winning at a slightly higher rate than non-division in games that are lined at five to six and a half points. 69.6%
40:59
over those 23 years versus 68.7%.
41:03
Seven to eight and a half point favorites in division games, the favorite actually wins at a 77.4% clip in division games, as opposed to only, quote unquote, "73.5% in non-division games."
41:17
A spread range of nine to ten and a half, there the non-division does slightly tick better than the division games, 81.8% to 80.3%. 11 to 12 and a half, once again, division ga- uh, division, uh,
41:33
uh, games of 11 to 12 and a half point spreads, the winners in division games get through at a higher clip than in non-division games. Same for 13 to 14 and a half point spreads by wide margin, and 15 plus.
41:48
So in other words, your reticence to play division games, if the spread is, let's say, a pick 'em to four and a half, then you are correct in having that hesitation.
42:04
But if the spread is actually five or greater, and by the way, the total numbers are at the bottom, Kelly. So total games of spreads five or higher, division games, over 1,000 games, right? Mm-hmm.
42:19
Division rival games ha- rivalry games have resulted in fewer upsets among likely survivor picks than non-division games have. 77.5% division games to 75.5% of winners getting through
42:33
in games that are lined at five points or higher. So that is a myth, right? If a division, uh... Let's take the Cincinnati game. Now, it is a road favorite, right? So maybe it gives you a little reticence here.
42:47
Because when it does, I will say this, when it comes to, uh, to road teams, then it gets a little dicey-er. But still, keep that in mind, that generally speaking, that is a myth.
43:02
Don't, if, if a division ga- if a, if a home team is favored by seven in a division game, you shouldn't at all be, use that as a reason not to play it. Yeah, I like that.
43:12
It's good, it's good looking back at these numbers, 'cause it is something you're gonna hear a lot, um, you know, whe- whether it's betting or survivor, right? Yeah.
43:19
The only thing that remains nebulous in all survivor is the notion of multiple entries. Like, what's the, what's the optimal number of entries to play, and if you do have multiple entries,
43:28
how do you break them down, right? Do you shove? If you have four, should you play four different teams? 'Cause remember, each additional team becomes a, a, a bit worse of a trade-off, right?
43:42
By adding more teams to your f- your portfolio, you're decreasing your average number of expected survivor entries and decreasing the chance of getting all entries through in exchange for lowering the chance of total elimination.
43:54
And each additional team becomes a bit worse of a trade-off with the elimination rate changing less and the all survive rate changing as much or more. So it is a, it, it's, there's no pat answer for that question.
44:05
I will tell you that with my six, I will either go three and three or two, two and two. Like it. I don't know if I love it, but that's how I think I'm gonna play it. Yeah, I'll probably be splitting.
44:18
I don't think I'm going all in on Cardinals. Remember our boy Bobby- Yeah... who had six deep a few years ago. He was shoving all week, week after week. More survivor talk on the other side.
44:31
It's a numbers game at Vsiz, the sports betting network.
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