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Sep 1, 2025
A Numbers Game | September 1, 2025 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | September 1, 2025 | Hour 3
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number three of a numbers game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. And we're taking this in on this Labor Day. Thank you so much.
0:21
Happy Labor Day- Mm-hmm... as we honor and pay tribute to those that labor. [laughs] To those that work. [laughs] Thank you for working. Thank you for working. That's right.
0:31
Now, Labor Day is a federal holiday in the US celebrated on the first Monday of September to honor and recognize the American labor movement and the works and contribution of laborers to the development and achievements in the United States of America.
0:43
That, that is, that is the fanciest way of saying, "Thanks for having a job." I just read it right off the computer screen. That was, that was very fancy. Yeah, that's what it is.
0:51
Uh, still to come this hour, Adam Burke, where I spend 15 minutes telling the guardians to go away. That'll be fun. His thoughts on college football, week one in the NFL, um, and more Survivor talk.
1:01
By the way, let me just say this before we get to Ed Feng. Tony Farmer, and I, I love that Tony is, is, uh, he's f- he's fact-checking me on everything. Mm. He's making sure that I don't leave out anything.
1:09
I appreciate that. Tony Farmer at Tony's Market Tips, he was saying all Jason, uh, List's Survivor myth about division games versus non-division games is true, five points or greater.
1:18
He does point out, though, that in week one, divisional big favorites have been bad recently. He thinks that's highly relevant.
1:26
What I would say is, I just think we don't know anything in week one, so that's why that's happened. I think if you look at anything big, you know, big like that, we will find that week one,
1:36
we don't know a damn thing about anything. So yes, caution with everything, division or not, in week one is, is a very smart, uh, bit of sage advice. Ed Feng joins us now, everybody.
1:47
He is the, uh, proprietor over there at the powerrank.com. He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. He was in studio during Bet Bash. He now comes to us via video. How you doing, Ed? I'm doing great, Gil.
2:00
Thanks so much for having me on. Appreciate it, man. We were just talking about, uh, your family off air. Things are good in your neck of the woods up there in Ann Arbor? Things are great.
2:10
You know, I'm, uh, you know, it, it could be better working on a holiday like you guys are, but I'm blessed to be doing what I'm doing, and I'm gonna be grateful for it.
2:17
All right, so we have a, uh, we have a couple things here in the NFL we wanna get to. One, you have a, uh, you have a interception thought on Justin Herbert. Right.
2:28
So Justin Herbert, like, looks incredible at not throwing interceptions. Uh, not just last season, but over the last three seasons, uh, he's got a 1.4% interception rate.
2:38
I mean, that's significantly better than the NFL average of about 2.2%. And my metrics suggest that this is sustained luck. Uh, interception rate is not a really good way of projecting interceptions going forward.
2:53
And, um, so what I found is you actually have to look beyond just interceptions, so you look at passes defended as well. These are plays in which the defense gets a hand on the football.
3:03
And when you look at the sum of interceptions and, and passes defended, I call them bad balls, and this is how I predict interceptions going forward, you know, Justin Herbert is a lot closer to NFL average.
3:14
And Gil, what kind of interests me about, like, this interception work is, like,
3:20
th- there's oftentimes where we see quarterbacks that have a three-year stretch where the, you know, this bad ball rate doesn't seem like it's working, right? Right now, it doesn't seem like it's working.
3:30
If I would've told you to bet under on, on Justin Herbert interceptions last year, uh, that would've lost, partially because those four interceptions in the playoffs don't count.
3:39
Um, but it- my, my research suggests that, like, you know, Justin Herbert should throw a lot, should be more closer to NFL average, should throw at about, like, 2.2% this season.
3:50
And the way to bet that, I think, is, um, leader to, uh, it- an- NFL interception leader.
3:57
I think Justin Herbert should probably be about 20 to one because he's about NFL average, probably g- gonna throw a reasonable number of attempts. Uh, the Chargers did that last year.
4:08
Um, you can find this at, uh, 60 to one on FanDuel. You cannot get as good of a price at Circa, 'cause they certainly moved it. They have it, uh, closer at 30, 32 to one. And, um, yeah, so I really like this.
4:21
I really like a sprinkle on this long shot. Uh, I think things are gonna tend to regress. And I was actually looking at this in the opposite way for Matthew Stafford. His numbers said the opposite.
4:31
They said that he was really good at not putting the football in dangerous situations, but his interception rate was worse than NFL average for a good three-year period. And I watched a lot of games.
4:40
I was like, "Is there something about Stafford?" Like, is there something that he's doing that makes him more prone to interceptions? And, and I never really found anything, and then regression happened last year.
4:50
He had a really good interception rate, and won some unders on him as well. Um, so I think there's gonna be a lot of regression for Justin Herbert this season. Yeah, it's interesting.
4:59
Do you rely on, uh, Pro Football Focus turnover worthy plays at all? Do you, do you rely on that stat? Because I do think, and I, I don't r- I don't recall this offhand, but I do believe there was at least a year,
5:12
maybe it was last year or the year before, where, where Herbert was among the high ones in terms of turnover worthy, but it didn't result- Yeah... in turnovers.
5:20
Um, so okay, Justin Herbert, most interceptions, uh, take a look at that per, per Ed. You have a season win total you'd like to share as well. Yeah, for sure.
5:30
And, and before I give you the win total, uh, I actually did some analysis of, you know, kind of closing win totals since 2018, uh, from Sharp Sportsbooks.
5:40
Uh, so I got- gathered the data from Bookmaker for a while, uh, Circa the last couple years, and I just wanted to see if there were any, you know, general trends.
5:48
And it was kind of interesting to see that if you just bet the under on every single NFL win total, you would be up about 10 units over those last eight seasons.
5:57
So it does seem like the market tends to, to shade over a little bit.
6:02
I'm certainly not saying to go out and bet every single NFL win total Um, o-on the under, even though, you know, you're not gonna get rich by u- you know, getting up a unit a year.
6:12
But I do think it's something that can guide your analysis. Uh, this is something that was in, uh, the 2025 football preview series. This is a podcast series that I've been doing over at the Football Analytics Show.
6:23
And I, again, I do think it can guide your analysis, the, to, to, to, to look for unders and, and not necessarily overs. And, and the one I like is Tampa Bay. Uh, and a lot of the analysis has to do with Baker Mayfield.
6:38
You know, it doesn't matter if you look at success rate, if you look at yards per pass attempt, if you look at PFF grades in a clean pocket, it kinda shows the same picture.
6:47
Uh, we kinda have this idea that Baker's been good for two years at Tampa Bay. You know, two years ago they won that playoff game over Philadelphia, made the playoffs again last year.
6:56
Uh, but what all these passing metrics say is that, yes, he was great in 2024, uh, but he was pretty average in, in 2023.
7:03
So we have one good year of Baker, and then if you go look back, he, he obviously had his struggles the season before, uh, platooning, uh, bouncing between Carolina and the Los Angeles Rams.
7:15
Uh, you actually have to go all the way back to 2020 to find the last time that Baker Mayfield was even above average in, in these metrics that I've been talking about. I think last year was a little bit of an outlier.
7:25
This team has some other problems in that Tristan Wirfs, the offensive tackle, is hurt. Their wide receiving corps is aging as well.
7:32
And then on the defensive side of the ball, you know, their numbers weren't great last year, and they should actually probably be a little bit worse when, when the pass defense is...
7:40
You know, they ended up facing Tommy DeVito with the New York Giants. Uh, they got half a game with Desmond Ritter. They got to face Cooper Rush instead of Dak Prescott.
7:50
So I actually have Tampa Bay's pass defense, uh, you know, l-lower than, than NFL average. So I, I like Tampa Bay under nine and a half wins. I don't think Baker has the ta- same type of season.
8:02
And, you know, historical look at NFL totals suggests under is definitely the way to go.
8:07
Yeah, I, I wanna just sort of buttress what Ed was saying, because that, that is an interesting nugget, what you're saying is, you know, the, the general pool, the, the season win total pool is shaded to the over.
8:20
So if you add it up, I used to say this in baseball, right? Before the, before the Major League Baseball season is when I did my, uh, MLB manifesto, which was there are 2,430 Major League Baseball games.
8:32
I believe that's the correct... Yes, 2,430. Right. And if you added up the we- the season win totals for all 30 Major League clubs, per book, it was often somewhat a little higher than 2,430 games. Right.
8:45
Oftentimes it was dramatically higher than 2,430 games. You're saying the same thing for the NFL, and I, I don't- Yeah... I, uh, we're at risk for making a little too much of that.
8:55
I remember Roxy used to, Roxy Roxbury used to say that to me, "Uh, maybe you're making a little too much of that." But the way I used to put it then sort of is it, it is a good guardrail, like you're suggesting it is.
9:05
It just shouldn't... What, what it should tell you is that if your instinct is to, to make a spate of over bets, that's probably the wrong instinct. Right. Right? That's a fair way to say it. That's- Yeah.
9:15
Um- That's exactly right, Gil. Yeah. Right? When you do the analysis, you get maybe a win or two over the total amount number of wins should be every year. It's not, it's not outrageous, right?
9:25
It's not like 10 wins over or something. But you have to factor in the prices too, right? So the prices are probably favoring the over a little bit.
9:34
I would also like to mention that, like, it, it's, um, the, the under wins for both good teams, uh, you know, teams that have nine and a half wins like Tampa Bay, but also for teams with win totals of six and a half or less, uh, that's actually profitable as well.
9:50
I would have actually guessed the other. You know, NFL regression to the mean, you know, these bottom teams are gonna tend to get better. We're just underestimating them.
9:57
The historical analysis suggests that that's not true, and that, partially that has kind of kept me off, like, Cleveland over four and a half wins. I think that defense is pretty awesome.
10:09
Uh, you know, and that was my first thought with that team, no matter what happens on the, on the offensive side of the ball.
10:15
But I, I think what happens is, you know, like, they have a brutal first five games against really good competition.
10:22
Joe Flacco, maybe he's good, maybe he's not, but if you're one and four or oh and five, then you're gonna start one of those rookies for the rest of the season to see what you got.
10:31
Maybe that makes it hard to get over four and a half wins. Ed Fay, everybody. Ed, appreciate it, @ThePowerRank on Twitter, uh, thepowerrank.com. And you have a guide that you're s- What, what is, what's out now for you?
10:44
Yeah, so I have a podcast series. There are nine episodes. They're about 12 minutes each, uh, giving you insights like what it's like to bet every single NFL win total under, what it's like...
10:53
I also include what it's like to include, to bet every single college football win total under, and other topics as well. Uh, check that out wherever you get your podcasts on the Football Analytics Show.
11:04
Ed, appreciate it, man. Great seeing you. Take care. Thank you so much, Gil. Thanks, Kelly. Ed Fay, everybody, right here on The Numbers Game. Uh, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook.
11:11
Bobby Geddes, "You guys might need a new picture for the show. Who's that hefty guy next to Gil?" Yes, we need an update on those for sure now that Kelly's down 80 bills. And- Couple studios ago, too, but you know.
11:23
Couple studios ago. And Sam Gins- Maybe win a couple more... Sam Ginsburg, riffing off Tony, uh, Farmer's preseason thoughts on quarterbacks, he says, "Just looked at the preseason stats.
11:32
Amazing how many starters threw very few passes, including a lot of top guys. Herbert five, Love five, McCarthy seven, Purdy seven, Kyler Murray eight. Even Mahomes only threw 14." Interesting.
11:45
He also said, "Show's going on after noon. Did you guys get a third hour?" We did. Adam Burke next on The Numbers Game.
11:51
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Juice Reel, just in case anybody thought it was something else. Kelly, we can't have that. Yep. If you know what I mean. Yeah, no, yeah. Uh- You have to clarify whenever I say it [laughs] I sure do.
12:52
Just to let you know, Kelly said juice. Um, okay, let's bring this man in. He is, uh, coming to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line in his hometown of Cleveland, Ohio.
13:01
It's the great Adam Burke @skatingtripods on Twitter. He joins us now, uh, courtesy of the, uh, Alexander Graham Bell invention, the telephone. Mm. How you doing, Adam? I'm good.
13:11
I didn't know Alexander Graham Bell invented cell phones, but- [laughs]... you know, close enough. Yeah, well, you know, he, he had the precursor to it, let's put it that way.
13:19
Adam, I, I start every segment with you by just saying this once again for the umpteenth time. Go away, Guardians. Jesus, go away. [laughs] Is...
13:27
A, at one game above 500 with a, uh, with a run differential that is negative, right? Shouldn't be anywhere near this record, but yet here they are, and this is gonna be a, this is gonna be a tight one, isn't it, for us?
13:41
Yeah, I think so.
13:42
I actually, uh, I got to go to the game on Saturday night, so got to see them firsthand where, uh, you know, whether I watch them on TV or I watch them in person, they're still not a very good baseball team, but they find ways to win, you know?
13:53
I mean, they just kind of battle their way through stuff. I mean, their starting pitching's been really, really good for the most part this season.
13:58
Uh, and actually a pretty good start from Tanner Bibee yesterday, which is a good sign for them going forward. But, uh, yeah, I don't know, man. They just, uh, they're like herpes, they don't go away.
14:08
[laughs] Simplex one or simplex two, I feel, uh, compelled to ask. Uh, Cleveland Guardians 68 and 67 with a minus 55 run differential.
14:21
Uh, 27 games left, the most, uh, remaining games of any team in Major League Baseball. 27 games, 82 and a half is th- is the number that, uh, I need to get under here. Uh, okay, college football. Your...
14:34
Let's start with tonight's game. Do you have a play on UNC and TCU tonight? Yeah, so, you know, i- in my power ratings, I had a pretty big overlay on this game. I did take TCU.
14:46
I know we're out to three and a half now, pretty much market wide. It's not as good of a number as you could've gotten last week. Um, but I just, I don't know how this North Carolina thing is really gonna work out here.
14:56
I mean, certainly I would expect the defense to be pretty decent with, you know, Bill Belichick, the career that he's had, but I don't know how good this offense is gonna be. Uh, I do really like TCU's offense.
15:06
I think Josh Hoover is a really good quarterback. I think he's a guy that's gonna get a lot of draft buzz here as we go forward. Uh, and I just think this TCU team, I mean, a lot more continuity, right?
15:15
And I know Steve MacInnis wrote about that in his stability scores piece.
15:19
This is a really, really big stability scores mismatch for him, and that's been a system that's worked really, really well for him in the first, you know, three, four weeks of the season over the last several years.
15:29
So I think that's part of why I had TCU an eight-point favorite in this game. So I had to take it, and we'll see how this one plays out.
15:36
But, you know, it does seem like the market really siding with the Horned Frogs here.
15:39
Yeah, and with the total, uh, I'll tell you, like, Will's, Will Hill's take on it, I think, is one I'm, I'm hearing, which is obviously the total has dropped a bit. Um, so 54, not as good as what it was.
15:49
But the thought being, the general thought being everyone can see Bill Belichick putting together a good defense. In fact, probably can't see him not having a good defense. But what was Will's line about the offense?
16:00
Also can't see them having this fast break offense either. Do you kind of agree with that as a, as an overall assessment? Yeah, I definitely agree with that.
16:09
You know, I mean, when you talk about NFL coaches coming over and, you know, being part of college football, it's, it usually it's the other way around.
16:16
You know, you tend to get guys that kind of graduate and be position coaches or coordinators at the NFL level. But, you know what I mean, especially for a guy like Belichick, right? You know, a guy who...
16:25
You know, let's be honest, like Tom Brady was just a plug and play offense, right? It was the, the Ron Popeil rotisserie oven. Just set it and forget it and let Brady do his thing. In college, it's much more nuanced.
16:37
And, you know, I think if you're gonna run a pro style, slower tempo type of offense, want to run the football, want to do some of those different things, I don't know how that's gonna work at the collegiate level.
16:46
Especially when you talk about a program like North Carolina where they are athletic. Year in and year out, they're very, very athletic, but they're not really like a power type of running team.
16:55
I mean, you know, Marion Hampton was just really, really good out in space, and that's why he was so effective last year.
17:00
So I could absolutely see that and, and I do tend to agree with this total coming down here, uh, in this one.
17:05
Especially because, you know, and I wrote about this on my updated power ratings article for this week, we saw a lot of quarterbacks be the leading rusher for their teams in week one because these offensive lines just have not gelled whatsoever.
17:19
So you get quarterbacks that are just evading pressure and wind up kind of running around a little bit. You know, it takes time for all that stuff to happen. You don't get a ton of explosive plays that way.
17:28
I tend to agree with you under here as well. All right.
17:30
I, I, we probably know the answers to these questions, but I'm curious since you bring up your power rankings after week one, what was the most dramatic power ranking move upwards and downwards for you?
17:43
So the biggest one up, this will shock everybody, was Florida State. Yay! [laughs] I don't know if, I, I don't know if it's because Thomas Castellanos now goes by Tommy- [laughs] Yeah, yeah...
17:52
but, um, dude, dude played a hell of a game against the Crimson Tide here. And, you know, I mean, this, this is a very talented team. And, and Mike Norvell's been a good head coach pretty much everywhere he's been.
18:02
I don't know what happened last year.
18:03
I don't know if anyone really knows what happened last year, but they played up to their talent level here in this game against Alabama, and clearly Alabama was the biggest drop for me.
18:11
Uh, I gave them a six-point drop here. I like Kalen DeBoer a lot. I loved him at Washington. I thought he was a great hire for Alabama. I like Kane Womack, the defensive coordinator, a lot.
18:22
For some reason, this just isn't working.
18:23
And, you know, you watch the tape of that, and I know Dan Orlovsky tweeted about this, like, there's just a complete lack of effort from a lot of the guys on the field for the Crimson Tide. So this isn't schematic.
18:33
This is some sort of issue within the program, and those typically don't correct themselves very quickly. So Alabama was a six-point drop, and another big drop for me was actually Middle Tennessee.
18:43
I gave them a five-point drop. They lost by 20 at home to Austin Peay. That's not a good look for Derek Mason at the start of year two. I mean, do we think Ty Simpson is any good? Yeah, that's a fair question, too.
18:56
You know, I mean, obviously, you know... And that's the thing, too, right?
18:59
You, you get excited about all these guys that are high four-star or maybe five-star recruits and just kind of assume that they're gonna go out there and everything's gonna work out really, really well.
19:08
I mean, Malachi Nelson's the starting quarterback at UTEP, and he was a five-star guy. So, like, there are no guarantees whatsoever, and maybe Ty Simpson just isn't that good of a player. Maybe. I mean, we'll see, right?
19:19
I don't wanna overreact, but we'll see. I, I, I know, like, the Arch Manning, you know, one of the big lines of the Arch Manning pushback after this game was, "He couldn't even beat out yours," right?
19:28
Which is fair to say after this kind of thing, where it's like, okay, yeah, let's see it play out, because who knows? Maybe he's not as great as we... He, maybe he's not even close to as great as we think.
19:38
We shall see in time. Uh, to the NFL, Adam, week one upon us. We are finally at that moment. Um, give me the one game, the one bet that you feel the most confident in heading into week one.
19:55
Uh, the bet I feel the most confident in- See, al- I mean, I know-... already, already this is going bad. Ah, these don't sound very, don't sound, sound very sure. Yeah.
20:05
You know, look, I mean, the start of any season is, is obviously a little bit high variance, right? I mean, in baseball, underdogs are typically really good in the month of April.
20:12
We saw underdogs, you know, in week zero come out really well in the college football ranks. You know, these teams just aren't in full swing, right?
20:19
We're gonna see some offenses that we expect to be really good probably oughta sink a little bit in this one. Uh, I will say, God, I hate to do this to myself. Oh, boy. Browns plus five and a half. I mean- Oh...
20:32
you know, I, Joe Flacco knows how to run this offense. I have never seen Kevin Stefanski enjoy coaching more than when he had that run with Joe Flacco during the 2023 season.
20:42
Like, he just loved the fact that he had a guy who could take some shots down the field. Yeah, he was gonna be a YOLO quarterback and throw some interceptions, but I think he just like...
20:52
I, I think Stefanski just really likes having him. The defense is still solid up front. Uh, Cincinnati's offensive line looks bad. Their defense looks bad. Uh, Browns plus five and a half.
21:01
I, I guess I'll decide if I wanna go to the game if I'm still in town here, but, uh, yeah, I hate myself for that. [laughs] Like, doing Browns in week one is probably not a good idea.
21:09
Well, both you and Wes on the show today, a lot of Browns love. Both of you lo- both of you like the Browns plus the points. Let me ask you a megapod question to close.
21:18
Um, and this could be, this could have, like, 10 answers for all I know, but what is the game on the spread that you want no part of in this week's slate? Let's do the opposite of that. Half the schedule.
21:31
I mean, I, I [laughs] I think it's gonna be Detroit and Green Bay, right? I mean, I just, I really like Detroit. I like Dan Campbell. I think the coordinators are gonna be fine.
21:41
Green Bay, I mean, how good is Jordan Love? You know, I mean, Micah Parsons is obviously a difference maker on the defensive side. There's no doubt about that.
21:47
But, you know, how c- how good, how consistent is Jordan Love? Do we have kind of a, you know, a little bit of regression from the Lions with Jared Goff?
21:55
Uh, obviously, this game's outside, but the weather should be fine. I, that's the game that I just, I do not know what to do with.
22:01
A- and the total is a little bit too high to even consider teasing Detroit up, 'cause I don't even know if that's a good play either.
22:07
And big favorite most likely to lose outright is the Bengals, I guess, by what you said earlier? Yeah, I mean, I guess the Bengals make sense. I mean, I don't see New Orleans beating Arizona.
22:17
I, I don't see Tennessee beating Denver, but, you know, based on how survivor went for me last year in week one with having the Bengals, uh, I could definitely see Denver finding a way to screw this one up. Yeah.
22:28
Wasn't just you, Adam. Wasn't just you. It was a whole bunch of us. Adam Burke from Cleveland, @skatingtripods. Adam, our managing editor here at VSiN. Thank you as always, Adam. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.
22:39
Have a good one. Adam Burke, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Uh, more survivor talk. Survivor talk strewn all over the show today. It's a survivor Monday.
22:48
That and more on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Can I, can I just read one tweet before the promo? Sure.
22:59
Super Jerk has ti- has chimed in. Sure. "Thanks for working, you bums." [laughs] Thanks, Super Jerk. Appreciate the, uh, the love. Uh, don't forget about EdgeBoost. Yeah.
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23:31
That's edgeboost.bet. We got tweets besides the Super Jerk one. Mako, Shades of Mako, "The realization just set in that this is the final Monday before guessing lines." That is correct.
23:42
Starting next week, always before week two, 'cause obviously we've had the lines all summer for week one, guessing lines. Pumped. Let's go. Now, we got an extra hour.
23:52
Do we make guessing lines go the full three, or do I still confine it to two? Well, I, I, I think we are lucky enough now, Gil, that we, we have the option to let it spill over if need be without rushing. Yeah, boy.
24:03
Now, there's also gonna be the weeks where, remember later in the season, where there are all the byes and we're like, we used to be like, "Oh, we don't really need two hours here." [laughs] True dat.
24:11
True dat Scuba Scott: "I never thought on beating the book I would get a, uh..." What does this say? A Ron Pope reference?
24:19
"Well, as long as it slices and dices and even makes Julian fries, whatever they are, I'm all in." Believe that was, uh, Adam Berktrop- Oh... last, uh, last segment. Oh, okay. I missed it completely.
24:29
Uh, Michael Salvino, "Gil, a few weeks back you mentioned how good Piero's was. Went last night, outstanding." Yeah, Piero's. Did you, uh, you ask him which booth was the booth that was, uh, in the scene in Casino?
24:40
I have not been there in a while. Yeah. That was a great spot. Yeah. Let's see here. Uh, okay. Let me... W- wanna do a little more, this is last year, before we get into, uh, this prop.
24:51
Uh, we have this divis- uh, certain team versus the field per division. We'll do that here momentarily in the NFL. Just one more thing about Survivor.
24:57
This has nothing to do with strategy or anything, but just last year, this was, uh, interesting to me. Again, shout out to Jason Lisk and, uh, the folks over at Pool Genius. The biggest favorites that lost...
25:08
Remember last year, Kelly Bidlin. Can I call you Kelly Bidlin? You may. I like calling- calling you Kelly Bidlin. Use the last name. Five, you know, within five weeks, 98-plus percent of Survivor entries were gone.
25:20
Mm-hmm. So you think, oh, it must have been these massive favorites. Like remember that time, Gil, you lost on that 17-point favorite back in 2020 on the Rams?
25:27
Do you know that last year there was nothing quite like that? For as much, what's the word? Carnage. As there was. Here are the top five biggest favorites that lost last year. You won't remember most of these games.
25:40
Five. Actually, this is a tie. Actually, it's a three-way tie at three. These are all nine-point favorites. Remember week two? Everybody talks about the Bengals crushing Survivor players weeks one and three.
25:54
Week two, the Raiders against the Ravens. Remember, the Ravens were nine-point favorites, the Raiders beat them. Yeah. That was the biggest loser for folks week two last year. I, I, I, I had an entry in on that one.
26:04
Yeah, 31% of entries, I think last year. And I believe a whole lot of other money too. I don't know why, but that game is really co- really coming back to my brain right now, Gil.
26:13
[laughs] Also nine-point favorite, the final week of the year, Panthers-Falcons. Falcons favored by nine. Michael Penix, they lose. Wiped out a huge chunk of the few entries still standing.
26:25
That was, I think that was the first year ever in Survivor where folks lost the last week. Uh, also a nine-point favorite, this game I don't remember. Week four, Broncos beat the Jets 10 to nine as nine-point...
26:38
Well, no. Yeah, they were nine-point dogs. They beat the Jets 10 to nine. Remember, at that time- Oh, my gosh... at that time- [laughs]... we didn't know Denver's defense was really that good and we f- Yeah...
26:49
and this was prior to the Jets collapsing. Yeah, yeah. It is, it's comical to go back. It is comical. You, you can just hear these spreads on a game right now. [laughs] The Broncos were nine-point dogs to the Jets?
26:57
Yes, they were. Okay. Yeah, that's good. Uh, second-biggest favorite to lose last year, also week 18, Bears 10-point dogs at Green Bay. They won on a Rimmer last second field goal, 24 to 22 at Lambeau.
27:12
They hadn't won at Lambeau in years. And then the biggest spread, 10 and a half points.
27:16
That was the biggest spread, the biggest favorite to lose outright last year was only 10 and a half points, and you know which one that was? Highlighted in the Survivor, uh, documentary.
27:26
Terry McLaurin's mad dash for the DC Skins, only to be followed by a missed extra point, and then Dallas returning the, uh, the subsequent kickoff back to the house. Dallas was a 10-and-a-half-point dog.
27:37
They beat Skins 34 to 26 outright. Anyway, let's do this, these props. These are interesting. Yeah. Kelly Bidlin always scouring. You're a scourer. Always scouring, yeah. Your middle name, Kelly Scourin' Bidlin.
27:49
Whatever happened to Kelly Middlin' Bidlin? We gotta bring that back. Yeah, just ain't, ain't, ain't trying to middle as much these days. Yeah, you're not quite the middler. Yeah. Whatever happened to that last name?
27:56
You really should get back to it. NFL division's favorite versus the field. I like a bunch of these. I like, like, half of these. Really? Okay, good. You? I'm glad we did this then. Eh, like one or two. All right.
28:06
AFC West, Chiefs minus 1, 115 versus the field, priced at minus 105. Give me the Chiefs. I think all this Chargers and Broncos talk is adorable, but I don't think they're beating the Chiefs. I really don't.
28:18
By the way, this is just your, your, your regular Kelly reminder of, "Hey, if you're looking to make division bets- That's right...
28:24
sh- uh, you know, on a favorite shop between, like, a market like this and just the division markets," 'cause it's amazing how- 100%... numbers can be different. That's right, 100%.
28:32
By the way, again, I don't know if you know this, but this is a special numbers game investigation reveals that the Chiefs have won nine AFC West titles in a row. Yeah.
28:41
I mean, look, I'm a, I wouldn't be taking the field. I think earlier in the summer,
28:45
earlier in the summer when I was higher on the Chargers, this field price would have interested me more, but I, um, I wouldn't want to bet right now. AFC East, I like this too, although this is...
28:56
I shouldn't even say it out loud. Josh Allen injury is your, is your torpedoer here. But the Bills minus 330 versus the field in the AFC East. The field is plus 265. I still like the Bills.
29:09
Uh, I would not bet it, but I do like this, I mean, like, if J- w- a Josh Allen injury away, right? You've got the whole, all three teams at plus 265.
29:18
Tried watching the second episode of Hard Knocks with the Bills last night. Yeah. Fell asleep within six minutes. Wow. Dude, nobody's talking about it. Nobody. Nobody. There is zero buzz. It's incredible.
29:28
How that sh- how that version of the show has fallen, the, uh, preseason one. AFC North, I am... I like the Ravens. I do. I think the Bengals defense is too suspect. Yeah, me too.
29:40
And I'm higher on the Steelers than most, but I still like the Ravens at minus 170 versus the field. Yeah. Field at plus 140 in the AFC North. We talked about it last week.
29:47
I, look, it's not a bet I'm gonna have, but that is, that is maybe the division, one of the divisions I am most confident, if not the most confident in, where it's one, two, three, four. The exact order. Really? Yeah.
30:00
What's your one, two, three, four? Ravens. R- r- just how the odds think they w- Ravens, Bengals... Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Browns. I'm not sure. I am r- I feel like I'm much higher on the Steelers than most.
30:10
Uh- Yeah, you are. You are a little bit... AFC South, the field is actually the favorite against the Texans. Field is minus 125, Texans plus 105. I don't wanna touch that. Yeah, I mean, I have a Texans division bet...
30:21
can understand if you are, you know, if you're someone who's higher, we've heard, we've heard a few people talk about being high on the Titans, uh, uh, compared to market, right?
30:30
If you are high, high on Titans and high on Jags, I, I think that number makes sense. It's playable. NFC West, the field a minus 185 favorite versus the Niners at plus 155. Again, Kelly's point is the best. Shop around.
30:47
Maybe the Niners have a better price just in the division market itself. It's, it really, not only from book to book, but within the same book, it's ridiculous, right? Um, I still think the Niners win this division,
31:01
but man, the injury problems are just... Is Christian McCaffrey gonna be okay for a full year? Is Trent Williams at 37 years old gonna be okay for this, for a full year? I don't know.
31:13
NFC East, Eagles minus 145 versus the field at plus 120. I actually like the Eagles here. Yeah, me too. And I'm, I'm a c- I'm a Commanders guy. I think Jayden Daniels is the best quarterback in the NFC.
31:25
Apologies to Matt Stafford and Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff. I just do.
31:29
I think Washington is the team you don't wanna get, you don't wanna let them into the playoffs 'cause I think they can go far, but I don't think they're winning the division. Yeah. I don't.
31:36
The other thing with this market is you've gotta be, if you're gonna take the field, you, you've gotta be convinced that all, you know, that all three teams at least stand a chance, right?
31:47
'Cause otherwise it just makes more sense for you to likely to b- go make- That's right... just division bets on the other two teams.
31:53
Last two, NFC North field minus 230 versus the Lions plus 190, and this gets back to exactly what you were talking about. Th- this is why I bring it up, yeah.
32:01
Because you have a division where some folks think the Packers are live, but not only that, some people think the Vikings are live to win the division. I am not one of those, but to your point.
32:10
And then finally, the NFC South, Bucs are minus 120, the field is even money. So you like, you're higher on the Falcons. I'm higher on the Falcons. I would bet the Falcons straight- Yeah...
32:22
because I don't think New Orleans or Carolina will win this division. So that's, that's another one, though. Let's say you're one of these people we've heard all summer, right? You're a little higher on Carolina. Cool.
32:32
Go bet Atlanta and Carolina. C- what's the chances New Orleans is winning that? Yeah. That's the assessment you have to make with all of these tangential markets, right? Mm-hmm.
32:42
You have, is this the correct market for you to bet your conviction? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Yep. That's all there is to it. Kelly Bidlin scouring, ladies and gentlemen, scouring.
32:55
Do we have any, uh, w- w- There's, there's so many markets posted. It is, it is like, it's fun to do the thought process, though, of like, "Hey, what do, what do I like here?"
33:01
And then there's, "Is there a better way to bet it?" 'Cause that question almost every time- Yeah... can be answered with yes, it feels like whenever we talk [laughs] about these. Yeah.
33:09
Like, "Actually, this is good, but what you should do is go over to this market and bet this and this." That's right. And it's football, man. It's just so fun to talk about. Yeah. Period. Yeah.
33:17
Oh, I've m- football, I've missed you so. Thursday night, three days away. First love of my life, Kelly. I'll never forget the first time I saw a football game. I could think of nothing else. It's awesome, man.
33:28
It's awesome. I lost, I lost my appetite on Thanksgiving when the Cowboys beat the Redskins. I was a little kid. My mother was like, "Come eat." I was like, "I don't have an appetite."
33:35
[laughs] We get the Cowboys on Thursday, man. Yes. O- Ojai Alia Sim takes the first set from Rublev. Let's go. We'll recap all the bets next on The Numbers Game.
33:44
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Well, Kelly Bidlin, let's come to this on this Labor Day. What I mean by that is- [laughs]... it's the final segment of the third hour.
34:02
S- wanted to see where you were going with that. [laughs] You know, everybody, everybody who hangs out- Let's come to this. Where, where does it come to, Joe? [laughs] I don't know. I don't know.
34:09
No, you know, every, I, I just wanna l- you know what I wanna, I wanna send some love around, and the first bit of love is to you, Kelly Bidlin.
34:15
Everybody who comes here after the show, right, listeners, we're all kind enough, especially during signups, right? We always have people outside.
34:21
Um, and they're like, "Oh, I love the show," and it's, everybody's so nice and I- Can't wait to see what this week's like. Oh my God. It was g- it has been chaos here the past two weeks, guys.
34:28
Like I, I don't know if you know this. There was pe- there were people signing up left and right the, for the past two weeks right after the show. Well, what's the, what's the survivor number?
34:35
13,671, a quick glance tells me in survivor. We're gonna have thousands more between now and, and- Yep... game time. Yep.
34:44
Um, but when folks are, are kinda, and everybody's so kind, uh, Numbers Game listeners, best listeners in the game, and they, and they, uh, they always say, "Oh, really love the show," and they say such nice things.
34:53
And I, first sentence I always say to them, and I'm sincere, I said, "That guy right there makes it a blast." And I point to this man right here, everybody. Kelly Bidlin, he makes it a blast. Oh, thank you, man.
35:02
People behind- Appreciate you, man... the glass are the ones who make it happen, right? Wyatt. Y- yes. [laughs] And Savannah Banana and Darnell and Rob Moreno and- Lair Bear...
35:11
Lair Bear and Isaiah and- Isaiah filling in today. Yeah. All these folks, right?
35:15
Um, but you make it a blast every morning, and we, we also wanna, besides Kelly, we wanna send a shout-out, 'cause all this football stuff, for the whole summer, right, we've talked about football, and we have relied openly so here on the show on the work of, of so many, o- obviously the VSiN Pro Football Betting Guide, uh, resource number one.
35:32
But some of our guests here that we have regularly on the show, Cleave TA, all those f- s- division- Mm-hmm... previews relied heavily on, on his amazing work and his pro football preview.
35:43
Obviously, Aaron Shots with his, uh, Warren Sharp with the schedule stuff- Yep... early in the summer, and Warren will be a regular on the show once again this, uh, this fall. Looking forward to that.
35:53
Um, Cleave will be on the mega pod at some point, and, and on the show, so we're excited. Aaron Shots will do his quarterly updates here on The Numbers Game. Um, [clears throat] all that stuff. Who am I forgetting?
36:04
Well, I said the book on tape- Oh... version, the Deep Dive Podcast. The Deep Dive Podcast. Yes. Drew and Andy, yeah. Do a great j- They do a great- You, you are a huge fan of that. Well, I, it, it, they do a great...
36:13
I, I don't know that I've ever made, I, I would tell this to their faces. I don't think I've ever made it a summer before where I've gotten through every one of their team podcasts. Yeah.
36:21
I think I did this year because it was... It, it's, okay, you've got time at home, I can read through a guide, right? If I'm at the gym Or so- or in the car, I can throw on a pod so easy, right?
36:31
So I- so, so many hours spent in the gym listening to the Deep Dive podcast this summer, and those guys did a great job on every team. You want me to tell you the quick, tell the quick story I set you up there? Oh, yeah.
36:40
Yes. [laughs] So starting... We do, I'm sure, I, we've gotten the tweets. I know me and Gil will agree on a lot of things in the NFL.
36:48
I think that it is natural when you talk to someone as much as the two of us talk NFL in a year- Yeah...
36:53
and now we've been working together for over five years, that you start to see some teams and some players a certain way, uh, a- and agree on that. Drew and Andy, you can kinda get that vibe, too.
37:03
I, I'm listening to all the, all the teams and, you know, there's slight disagreements here on rating numbers, but nothing, like, too massive. Friday, I am dying laughing.
37:11
They have gotten through every team preview at this point, Gil. They're just doing a Micah Parsons reaction podcast. And Drew had, we had brought it up on Friday. Drew had sent us his numbers.
37:20
He had bumped up the Packers big time, and they're kinda talking about where their different power ratings are at.
37:25
And there's, like, kind of a sizeable difference between Drew and Andy's, uh, power, power rating on the Packers. So they're talking through, "Okay, well, where," you know, "where's this big difference coming from?"
37:34
They're ta... I'm dying laughing because they've got Nate Hobbs, cornerback number two- [laughs]... on the Packers rated so wildly differently- [laughs]... that it is swinging their numbers. And I, I'm...
37:46
Like, they are in full-blown argument mode of, like, "How do you possibly have him rated this high?" [laughs] "How do you have him ra- him rated this low?"
37:51
I'm just dying laughing 'cause it's by far the biggest disagreement they had all summer. So I s- I texted them. I was like, "Guys, it sounds like the NFC comes down to one thing."
38:00
[laughs] Co- you gotta go through Philly, and then you gotta go through Nate Hobbs. Nate Hobbs controlling it all. He controls the destiny of the NFC. Yeah. But you, you said it.
38:07
When you're, when you're dying for football information at all times of day, whenever you need it, a, a great resource as well. It's great. Yeah. I mean, look, it depends on what you bet.
38:16
You're far more active w- with, with tennis going every day throughout the summer, right?
38:20
Like, I've got, once the NBA ends, it's golf every week for me, but then I've got time to consume and get ready for NFL season, right?
38:27
That is where so much of my time g- is going in the, in the months of July and August.
38:32
Dude, last week we were going through division-by-division previews, and it was the first week of the US Open, and there's a million matches. Yeah, I am... Again, one of tennis' great tricks is the decency.
38:43
I love using that with tennis. The decency to get out of the way once the NFL starts. Yeah.
38:47
There's still tennis, but the Slams are done, and, and we go into, like, you know, indoor hard courts and that kinda thing, and then the, uh, the WTA and ATP Finals. Speaking of which, let's recap all the bets.
38:57
Uh, today o- uh, on the tennis courts at Flushing, Jaume Munar on the men's side, plus 192 versus Lorenzo Musetti. By the way, I don't know if it's Jaume Munar.
39:07
I think it's Jau- I mean, Spanish pronunciation, it's Jaume Munar. He is Spanish. Plus 192 versus Lorenzo Musetti. The Auger-Aliassime match has started. I have him at plus 120 versus Andrey Rublev.
39:18
Auger-Aliassime up a set in the early going there. And then the ladies' side. This is the, uh, the marquee matchup thus far of the US Open. I'm on Naomi Osaka, plus 123 versus Coco. Uh, Osaka has won two of these titles.
39:31
Coco has won one US Open. Something's gotta give. Those are the three tennis plays. And by the way, rem- oh, I'm sorry. How's Osaka look so far? Oh, she looks great. Feel like I haven't co- Okay. She looks great.
39:40
I think I'm gonna join you on that one. Also, her tennis game is good. [laughs] Uh, Iga Swiatek to win the US Open at plus 352, as she plays today.
39:48
Iga to win her half at minus 105, and Karolina Muchova, who's in action today, if Muchova wins today, and she's a, she's a pretty good favorite here, she will be one win away from cashing our Q3 at 14 to 1.
40:03
What could go wrong? By the way, I checked on some of those Iga future prices, and we had, we, we talked about some of the outrights earlier. I, I think they're still bettable. They're, they are still- Oh, yeah...
40:11
those numbers are still what we... I think we showed plus 230 o- on the outright sh- shop around for that. But the, the top half I saw plus 105 still this morning.
40:20
I mean, the reason they've remained steady is 'cause she dropped a set two matches ago, and she was down 5-1 in the first set the other day. So she hasn't been pristine, to say the least. Yeah. Okay, okay.
40:30
That makes sense. Um, okay, for me- What about you, Kelly Bidlin? I did add an NFL bet tomo- uh, this morning, actually. I'm just gonna call you Kelly Bidlin from now on. It's cool name. Oh.
40:39
You know how many people just call me Bidlin 'cause they just wanna say- Oh... they just wanna say the last name? I get it. What you got, Kelly? It's a cool last name. What you got, Kelly Bidlin?
40:44
Well, you remember on Friday I went over that graphic of the teams I could not possibly consider betting an under on? Oh, yes. Well, there are two teams that, that were on that graphic. So I, I'm gonna play it over. Oh.
40:54
I'll go to battle with it. Uh, Panthers and Jags over 46 and a half, which [laughs] I do, I do see there's under money coming in this morning. So guess what? You can get a 46 out there if you want right now.
41:05
Uh, over 46 and a half. I played Bucs money line last week, and then these ones were earlier in the summer. 49ers money line, and Cardinals laying four and a half on the road. Three, uh, three road favorites.
41:17
What could go wrong, Gil? What could go wrong? Uh, also had, uh, bets from Wes Reynolds. TCU and Carolina, he's on the first half under tonight. I think I will be on that as well with Wes.
41:28
Under 28, first half under TCU and Carolina tonight. Actually, I'm gonna put that in right now after we get off the show. Yeah, it does, does feel like a big number.
41:35
Uh, Packers money line, uh, against the Lions for Wes, and the Brownies plus the points versus the Bengals in week number one. He's also got the Jags to win the AFC South at plus 280.
41:47
And then Adam Burke, um, one he agree... Well, he agrees with the Browns, plus five and a half. So he likes the Brownies plus five and a half. His Brownies, he says, uh, well, you know, speaking of what could go wrong.
41:59
But he likes his Browns there plus the points against the Bengals. And then he, tonight he's on TCU laying the points versus Bill Belichick and Michael Lombardi's North Carolina Tar Heels.
42:09
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42:42
Uh, Chris Felica texting in, we get texts and tweets, agreeing with my, uh, sentiment or at least what I said when I asked Adam Burke, or maybe Ty Simpson is just not that good. Mm-hmm.
42:52
Felica texts in, he says, "Simpson in program four years, never came close to winning the job, never came close to the portal because there was n- zero interest, and that didn't send sirens off?"
43:05
I mean, hard to argue with all that. Yeah. We'll see. Good point. Uh, by the way, Will, uh, when I was on Should've Bet More with Will yesterday, Will said this, and I think he's, and I think he's right.
43:14
This game tonight, like after all the, I'll put marquee in quotes because Texas-Ohio State, I don't know if it lived up to the hype, right? I don't know if LSU-Clemson did.
43:22
I don't know if any of these games lived up to it. Miami-Notre Dame kind of did- No, that was fun... last night. Um, but I almo- he, he said it, I think I agree.
43:30
It's almost like the, the Carolina game tonight sort of flew under the radar a little. Um, I could not be more excited to watch this. Like, I'm so curious to see how this goes. Yeah, me too. Me too.
43:41
In, in, in not quite the s- Remember how like prime time in Colorado was kind of like a sidebar content thing in college football a couple of years ago? Yes. This feels like that in a different way. I completely agree.
43:51
It's that, it's that- Yeah... no, no, I think it's very similar, right? Yeah. You're, you're just, I mean, I don't... What are we really... We're, we're tuning in to watch a coach.
43:58
[laughs] What do I, I, what, what are we expecting to see? You know what I mean? I, I, we're just, uh, we would be shocked I think if we're seeing f- uh- [laughs]...
44:05
offense moving the ball up and down the field Some massive arguments with Bill Belichick and an 18-year-old. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, stay tuned, prop points, John Hanson coming up.
44:12
Uh, on today's show, Tom Brawley gives his best NFL futures and prop bets, followed by Money Moves, Money Moves with Stormy and JBT. And then stick around for Follow the Money with Mitch and Paulie.
44:23
It's VSiN, the sports betting network. Good luck with all your bets, baseball, football, tennis, and beyond. [upbeat music]
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