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Sep 1, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 1, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 1, 2026 | Hour 1
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1:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
1:10
There's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin- Hello... in the hizzy.
1:21
Circa Sports Resort Casino, all that stuff. Yeah. Oh, oh, oh. Live on channel 189. My bad. Sirius channel 189 as of this morning. Yep. Thank you. Welcome. Thank you to Drew "Cornbread" Maxwell. Mm-hmm.
1:35
Are we calling him our new producer yet? Mm, eh. Let me tell, let me tell you why he's gonna work out.
1:40
Not only did he feed 189 into my ear, but he also had direct communication with me just prior to the show and om- and took you out of it. Oh, I am- Extra points... I, how OCD is Kelly Midlin? Yeah.
1:52
I will not stand for that, will not stand for that. That's Kelly screaming at him. J- Jar- Jared filled in a couple weeks ago when you were out. [laughs] Du- it was me and Dustin. I was losing my mind.
1:59
I'm like, "I don't know what's going on." You think the nickname Cornbread Maxwell's gonna stick? Oh, I think so. I think we were solidifying nicknames behind the glass. You, you nailed that one perfectly yesterday.
2:09
Yeah. Um, John Goulet, formerly with us- Mm-hmm... now, uh, owner of one of the, or part owner of a, of a proxy service, I believe, and then Vegas Live and all kinds of stuff. Um, he- Vegas Live Casino?
2:24
Is that what it's called now? Vegas Live Casino. What is it called? Casino Network. Oh, Casino Network. Yeah. I don't know what that is, but okay. He, uh, he texted me unsolicited.
2:30
He's like, "Hey," this, he's like, "I hear, I hear you're considering Drew for your next producer. He's fantastic. Love him." And then he did, at the end, he goes, "Just, just one thing.
2:39
He, uh, he likes baseball more than he likes football." John viewed that as like a, just a th- a note he had to throw in. Wow. That's okay. It's all right. That's okay. We're gonna allow that. We'll allow it.
2:48
Baseball's a great sport. I think you and I can handle football. The, have you not, have you not seen that room over at the Plaza? No.
2:54
They g- uh, I, I think that's where, uh, the, that Maxwell works out of and, uh, John Goulet handles. Yeah. No. They got, over at the Plaza here, they got a, a,
3:02
I don't even know how to describe it, a room, a separate room from the casino with a bunch of casino games with cameras set up- Hmm... so people can watch.
3:11
Like, you know how, like all the conversations Crack and I have, a- and you and have had about, like, people just going on YouTube to watch these slot machine guys are just out here shooting all the time?
3:20
This is like table games and more, and you can actually go onto the TV network and watch it. And do I seem like someone who would do that? I don't think so. No, not at all. No. No. But it's, it's fascinating to see.
3:29
Interesting. Okay, maybe I'll, maybe I'll visit once. Uh, on the show today, MLB September most wins. We will rehash that from yesterday. Yes, that's what we're doing? Mm-hmm. All right, in case you missed it.
3:38
One last chance. I'll, [laughs] yeah, the numbers have moved, I'm told, so we'll see. Uh, Joe Sheehan on baseball, uh, Paul Spohrer on baseball later today, a lot of baseball.
3:47
JVT, Jonathan Von Tobel, talking college football with us, and Joe Peta stops by to talk prediction markets with us. Joe Peta, author, um, works over there at Cantor. Overall great guy. Overall great guy. Thank you.
4:03
Kelly, Kelly sometimes puts that in the rundown, overall great guy. No, I like that note. Yeah. Um- Joe, Joe Peta, Tony Farmer, and I, uh, hung out watching Drew Dinsick's tennis, uh, uh, panel.
4:13
Oh, I've yet to watch that. How about that trio? I've yet to watch that video. Yeah. I've watched the Joe Peta bet batch video, but I have not watched the Drew Dinsick one yet. It was great. Yeah. It was great. Yeah.
4:21
I don't wanna, you know, I've already spoiled the ending for you, but hope that videographer got all that. Tony gonna be okay, by the way? I hope so. Okay. I think so. Uh, speaking of- 'Cause I saw him on Friday night.
4:31
Oh, yeah? Yeah, he was eating dinner. Yep. Oh, good. Uh, August wins, it's over. It was already over yesterday. We mentioned the Phillies had clinched it. Phillies win it going away. 21 and s- uh, 21 and 7.
4:42
Not quite the 21 and 4 Red Sox record from the previous month, but 21 and 7 is still a coast job by the Phillies. We have not had any drama in any of these months that I recall.
4:51
I think March, April was the closest to having drama. But they beat the Rays in the end by three wins, the Padres, Blue Jays, and Red Sox, Brewers, and Braves by four wins. Wasn't close in the end.
5:00
End up with the, uh, best run differential. They had it all covered. Philadelphia Phillies, congratulations.
5:06
Mark Borchardt, anybody else who had them pre-flop, I believe the number was 11 to 1 at William Hill Caesars, by the way. Do not know what it was at, at Circa, but I would imagine thereabouts.
5:17
I did hear on, uh, SportsCenter as they were, uh, going over the Phillies game last night, showing highlights.
5:23
I, I, just, it just, it hit my ear in, uh, in an interesting way when a- after, after the, uh, full breakdown and highlights of the game, uh, they decided to add in the script that, uh, for the Phil- if you're track- something like, "If you're tracking at home, Phillies, best record in the month of August," Oh...
5:37
"21 and 7." Did I do that? Well done, ESPN. Well, well done. Now let's work on the tennis coverage. That might've just been them being thorough, but- Yeah...
5:45
but, you know, we, we obviously talk about it every day, so I was like, "Yeah, that seems a little specific."
5:50
Baseball home stretch, um, yes, we'll get into September wins coming up, but yesterday was, uh, so Cubs played the Brewers, right?
5:57
Uh, Cubs come into the series way behind In the NL Central, but they play each other seven more times. They were eight games back starting last night, but they crushed the Brewers yesterday.
6:09
Um, hit nine homers, a Chicago Cubs franchise record, an NL record for most home runs in a month for the Cubs. 62 homers in the month of August for the Cubbies, and Alex Bregman- Wow... had another three homer game.
6:24
I would have no idea what to guess what the average number of home runs by a team in a month is, but that feels high. Well, it's super high.
6:34
I mean, if you think about it, it's you're averaging two point some homers a game. Okay. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. It is. That's super high. Every single time you go out there, that's what you, uh, that's what your average is.
6:44
Uh, Trevor Story, uh, for our Red Sox. Remember now, uh, just let people know, we have a couple teams coming up in the month of September. One of them's the Red Sox. I know. I usually just do one team.
6:54
This is the first time I've ever done two. The Red Sox are one of them, and one of their additions, right? Roman Anthony famously back in the lineup.
6:59
Trevor Story ends up getting a walk-off win for them yesterday against the Mariners. Um, so that's the injection into the offense they need from those two guys. Um,
7:11
but a lot, I mean, so, so much going on, and we will go.
7:14
We, we should do another heat check about awards because I think of the four biggies now, MVP in both leagues, Cy Young in both leagues, we have gone from two to three that are done. Mm-hmm.
7:26
I don't think, I only think there's drama in one, and we'll get the, we'll get the heat check on all those coming up as well. But the, uh, the drama there has sort of fallen by the wayside. Tennis yesterday. All right.
7:37
First two days of the US Open. By the way, the big upset yesterday, Arthur Fils, right after the show, goes down to Stefanos Tsitsipas. Nobody saw that coming. We did one, we did one head-to-head yesterday.
7:49
I got it wrong. Fils gets knocked out before... Oh, no, it wasn't Fils. It was Holger Rune. Yeah, yeah. Never mind. I didn't get that wrong.
7:55
Uh, but the first two days of, of US Open match play for me, the first day, 'cause we had two carryover matches from the first day, those end up splitting yesterday.
8:03
Remember how I told you we had two atrocities the first day, one where Renata Zarisu was two points away from winning, she lost, and then we had another player, uh, Vanda Winkle, she was up 6-2, 5-2 with a match point, and she lost that match.
8:15
Well, one of the holdovers, we were up 5-2 in the fourth, a game away from winning there too, and lost another one. It's a- Oh my God...
8:22
to, to find three matches in the first day, if you will, that end up that way basically turned like a five and one into a two and four. Well, let's not say five and one.
8:32
Let's say four and two, 'cause sometimes tennis happens. So, but, but really a winning day into a losing day. Yesterday I earned the one and three.
8:40
There was nothing, there was nothing bad beatish about the one and three. It was a one and three we did at, uh, Kevin, Kevin Duckworth. [laughs] That's what I was trying to say. [laughs] We did here James Duckworth.
8:48
Yeah, Duck- We end up losing a unit six yesterday. So not a, not a fun start the first two days. One day supremely unlucky and one day just yesterday didn't work out. Crap.
8:57
I thought you did better yesterday 'cause I saw that Duck, the Duckworth scored. Yeah. And I was like, "Eh," I was mad at myself for not betting it. It was like, "Duckworth." I was making all those Mighty Ducks jokes.
9:04
[laughs] I should've bet it. Today- Look at this... to get off the schneid. Woo. And it's not, it's not purposeful. It's just how the cookie crumbled- Yeah... with the numbers. I know. I know with you. Eight matches.
9:15
It's the final day of the first round. We're still in the first round of the US Open, which is just, again, this is tennis nirvana.
9:22
When, when's the last time you remember walking on this show and dropping eight tennis matches? I had an eight a co- I think I had a couple other days this year that were eight. Okay.
9:28
I don't think I've ever done more than eight. Two are on the men's side. Six are on the ladies' side.
9:32
If you feel like playing, and these will start, I would imagine, I haven't looked at the times necessarily that closely, but I would imagine a couple of these, if not few of these, start in about an hour.
9:41
Uh, on the men's side, Arthur, I believe you pronounce that Gaia, I'm not sure, Arthur Gaia, minus 125, oh, minus 121, pardon me, versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Uh, and Gael Monfils is- Gael...
9:53
yeah, plus 110 versus Daniel Adolfo Vallejo. Uh, Gael Monfils is going to have super-duper crowd support. This is his, perhaps his last U- not perhaps, it is his last US Open.
10:04
Um, I think he comes out, wins this match today. So those are the two on the men's si- uh, men's side, Gaia and Monfils. And then on the ladies' side, a six-pack. Gabriela Knutson plus 151 versus Evelys.
10:18
Evelys not playing really well these days. Um, I like, Knutson has great numbers on, uh, on the le- on the lower tours to take, uh, take her down.
10:28
Evelys, um, the, the more known quantity here for, you know, not only her tennis, but also her Instagram. Knutson plus 151 is the play there. Magdalena Frech plus 269 versus Danny's girl, Iva Jovic.
10:41
Yeah, she got, like, her, uh, what, what, what did she get, like, her diploma yesterday we saw live on air? She got her diploma from high school. That's, uh, letdown spot.
10:49
[laughs] Uh, uh, Tatjana Maria plus 142 versus the Hamburger, Jelena Ostapenko. We are fading the Burger. She has not played well of late. Our only hope here is if Maria gets out to a lead,
11:02
Ostapenko doesn't walk off the court. Elena Cornea, the big upset here, plus 225. I think Madison Keys is, is vulnerable. Cornea's hard court numbers are great.
11:11
And then two favorites, Maria Sakkari versus Robin Montgomery. I got her at minus 145. Again, these are for Vsion subscribers on the overnightvsion.com/picks. Uh, I was just down here at the circle window.
11:21
I think that's much higher than that now. I wouldn't play it higher than minus 150. And then the last one, Daria Vidmanova minus 105 versus Jessica Bouzas Moreno. Uh, Manero, pardon me. Um,
11:35
so here are, again, Gaia and Monfils on the men, men's side, and then dogs, Knutson, Frech, Maria, and Cornea on the ladies' side, with two favorites as well on the ladies' side, Sakkari and Vidmanova.
11:47
Eight plays for your tennis. I'm tailing you at least on a few of these. Okay. Kelly, you're, you're pretty good at, uh, cherry-picking too. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
11:55
Well, like, one I knew already 'cause I saw Zach had Gael. He had Gael. Oh, he did? Okay. So I'm gonna definitely play that one. There you go. And then I'll pick a couple other ones. There you go. I love the US Open.
12:04
It's fantastic. We've had this conversation before. Like, I like tennis. I love tennis. To have it on all day long.
12:08
I mean, it's a great sport, but just always in Europe or, uh, you know, somewhere overseas, it makes the time soar all day long, all night long. It's great, man. It's a beautiful thing.
12:16
They actually, uh- Ended at a, at a reasonable hour last night. Mm-hmm. Um, Big Foe earned a five set win. Naomi Osaka pushed to two tiebreakers, but a straight set win for her.
12:28
Pushed, but no cigar for the, uh, for the opponents. Yeah, the only upset yesterday, again, on the heels of the Djokovic upset on, uh, Sunday, Arthur Fils- Yeah... losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas.
12:39
Uh, finding the fountain of youth there for a second. Uh, should be fun. Those are all the tennis. We will rehash September most wins Major League Baseball next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:51
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14:08
I might have a, uh, microfracture on the ball of o- one of, on my right foot, and I have one of these doc- I love this doctor because he's over the top reactions to things.
14:18
So he like diagnoses, he just, he slides his chair back. He's like [sighs] 'cause he's a tennis player and he knows how much ten- people who play tennis love playing tennis. Yeah. So I, I was like, "What?"
14:30
He goes [sighs] I was like, "What? I don't know what I, what I have." He's like, "You might have to wear a boot for a while." I'm like, "Oh, God." Is this your, is this your, your, your, your mercury doctor?
14:40
Mercury doctor. [laughs] No, I, I- Okay... this is a general internist. Okay, good, good. Yes. Good, good, good. Mercury doctor.
14:46
He's, he's kept coming back with some wacky re- diagnosis' recently that, that- Elevated-... are concerning me... elevated levels of mercury in the blood.
14:53
That went away, and then it was elevated levels of arsenic in the blood. I went, "What's happening?" Yeah, I'm sorry, I shouldn't, I shouldn't even have asked that on air.
14:58
But the, uh, it, I was, I thought this was the same doctor. I'd be like, "This, this person's-" No... "really trying to squeeze some money out of you." I, I love this doctor.
15:04
He's, he- Es- especially with the reaction you just gave, like, "Oh, oh." It's, [laughs] I was like, "Oh no." "You got something in your foot. It's gonna cost a lot of money." What happened?
15:12
[laughs] I think you just may wear a boot for a while. Uh, Bullet Godfrey. Are- Sounds like a good tennis excuse, though, for, uh, any loss going forward... Oh, I'm totally playing Todd, and if I lose, that'll be it.
15:21
Yeah. Bullet Godfrey, are we dead in these two MLB season win totals, Cleveland under, Texas over? I don't know wh- I don't know that we're dead, but let's put it this way. Starting last year,
15:32
this has become a grind, and before last year, these were, like, the cushiest things going. But these aren't working out the same way they used to, at least last year and this year. Cleveland was the one last year.
15:43
Uh, Texas fighting to get above.500, Cleveland fighting for us to get under.500. How's my Orioles one looking? Not great, huh? What did you have? Uh. [laughs] Over? Yeah. [laughs] Oh, I don't know. 85 and a half.
15:56
Not so, not so good. That's- Let's see, needs- Not great, Bob... 17 more wins out of the Orioles. Not great, Bob. That's gonna be a struggle.
16:03
We, so no, it's, it's not dead, Bullet Godfrey, to, to answer your question, but they have been a grind all season long. And, uh, if you ask me would I take the split right now, I'd probably take the split. Mm.
16:14
Uh, Shrek McPhee, "It took one round for me to completely regret my FAA 29 to one and double down on Carlitos two to one, LOL. Egan Truck just getting warmed up. LFG." Yeah, I mean, we said this about Carlos, right?
16:26
The morning that Sinner pulled out, I was like, "Just, just run in and grab Carlos." It's only one match. It was against, uh, Rom- Roman Safiullin. Um, yeah. Yeah, just, you're, you...
16:39
I, my point was you're just gonna be really happy to have that ticket after a round or two. You're gonna be like, "Oh yeah, I'm glad I have this." He's the best player in the world.
16:44
The, the futures board, as I was resetting it this morning, did fe- did feel pretty reactionary, though, to a couple, just a couple wins and, and, and, and then some guys that struggled a little bit.
16:57
Like, I mean, Alcaraz c- from DraftKings, cut from plus 220 to plus 175, one match, right? Yep. Like, uh, f- I felt like a- Which is where I got it, yeah. That felt like a fair amount. And then, and then, and then FAA
17:10
wins, advances, right? Goes from, he was 18 to one yesterday on the futures board, drops back at, to 20. So a lack of confidence in the win? Um, I don't know if it was so much a lack of confidence in a win.
17:22
Remind, I gotta remind myself now which quarter he's in just to- And then Tiafoe was the same way... Well, Tiafoe- I mean, he was a five set, a five setter... it's the five setter part that is not a good thing, right?
17:31
Right. 'Cause you're logging time. Um, FAA is, is in the same quarter as Fritz. I always thought he should be a dog to Fritz. I know we ha- I know j- both Drew and Zach love FAA. I'm not quite as, uh, bullish.
17:45
But Carlitos looking, looking good is, is I think the biggest factor in all that. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Uh- Zverev 320 to th- uh, three to one. He plays today. Not a huge move there. He plays today.
17:54
Uh, Doug Tuttle, "Have you two done any analysis on these league leaders in September NFL bets? Caesars has it framed that way, and DraftKings has it listed leader through week three." Well, it's the same thing, right?
18:04
There's only three games in September. What's the ques- have we done any analysis? We did a little last week. Doug, I asked the same question, though, okay? Yeah. [laughs] It's a fair question.
18:13
Kelly, Kelly asked the exact same thing. [laughs] Uh, okay. Uh, let's talk about it from yesterday in case you missed it. September most wins in baseball.
18:20
Again, first thing I do is I look at total number of games in the month of September What we ended up having was five teams, uh, that are gonna play 25 games, 23 teams that are gonna play 24 games, so most of them at 24.
18:35
One team, the Diamondbacks, playing 23, the Nationals playing 22. That's the first thing you should know about just sort of handicapping this.
18:41
Here's the graphic briefly for those who wanna, uh, check that out in graphic form.
18:45
There you go, the five teams at top, and then all the way trickling down to the Diamondbacks and Nationals, who are just sort of, again, at s- William Hill Caesars, where it's a dead heat.
18:53
That's not a good thing, dead heat tiebreaker. At Circa, where there's tiebreakers, fewest losses if you tie for most wins, followed by best run differential.
19:01
It's not the worst thing in the world 'cause you could also sort of translate it as fewer chances to lose. But anyway, you should know that starting out.
19:08
What I then end up doing is I take the schedules of all the teams, I analyze those. What I'm looking at, though, is not just the records of teams.
19:15
What I'm really more concerned about in terms of identifying teams I wanna bet on and the schedule of teams that team might play or will play, I wanna know what their Pythagorean theorem record is, meaning runs produced, runs allowed, what the record ought to be win percentage-wise based on that, and then sequencing how they got to most runs produced and most run, and, uh, to, uh, runs produced and runs prevented, how they got there based on sequencing.
19:40
In other words, both offensively and defensively, it's one thing to know how many runs a team scored, how many they prevented. It's an entirely different thing to know how those runs were in fact produced or prevented.
19:51
In other words, the, the example I love to give, Kelly, four events can happen in a half an inning, r- let's say. Well, let's say seven events. Home run, three walks, three strikeouts.
20:01
If they happen in that order, you score one run. Mm-hmm. If you reverse that order, well, not, let's do it the other way. If you say, uh, three walks, a home run, and then the three strikeouts, you score four runs.
20:12
So based on it's the same number of events, the same exact number, the same exact things that happened, but just based on the order of events, you end up being fortunate over the course of a season or unfortunate offensively and defensively.
20:23
So you put all that in the, in the wash. I come up with three teams. Here is the third place team. I did not bet this. They ended up as my third consideration. It is the LA Dodgers.
20:33
The LA Dodgers are the short shot in all of this. So ultimately, the price was too low for me to play it. But if you're playing the Dodgers, I totally get it.
20:41
Uh, they were only, uh, four to one when I first looked at William Hill Caesars. They were plus 280 at Circa.
20:47
Listen, they're as good as they are advertised, or actual record versus, uh, the Pythagorean, the base runs over at FanGraphs. They play a really easy schedule. I think it's, what, the third easiest?
20:58
I wanna make sure I have that right, uh, left in, uh, Major League Baseball, but you get the idea. It's super easy. I just didn't like the number. I'm not playing it.
21:06
Um, the Dodgers themselves, they've gotta make a, they've gotta strive to get the one or two seed. Right now, they're on the inside looking out of that, um, so they are incentivized to get that bye.
21:18
They don't want, they have the fourth easiest remaining schedule based on opponent aggregate win percentage. They don't want to be the third seed or below.
21:24
They want to avoid at all costs by being the first and second seed, the best of three, 'cause even the mighty Dodgers can fail in a best of three. Mm-hmm. Okay. But the number was too low. I didn't play it.
21:36
Usually, I only play one team, but this month, I just would have so much self-loathing if the number two team hit that I decided I was gonna play 'em both.
21:46
And so the number two team for me, or 1B if you will, as it turns out, I played during the show yesterday, talked about it right before we did the segment. It's the Toronto Blue Jays.
21:55
Toronto Blue Jays were 28 to 1 on Sunday. I got 'em yesterday at plus 2325. I am told they're nine to one now. I would not play it at nine to one. Oh, wow. Yeah. I wouldn't do that.
22:07
But plus 2325 yesterday, I hope everybody did get in on that. The reason or the main reason, this is, this is a bit of a departure for me because this is a team that isn't quite as good as their actual record.
22:18
Yes, the schedule is super easy. Uh, Toronto has the third easiest remaining schedule based on aggregate win percentage of opponents.
22:25
The real sort of thing that put me over the top here with the Blue Jays is, yes, they will be in it the whole way through 'cause they are fighting for a wild card, right?
22:32
They're fighting for that number three wild card position, so they'll be incentivized to play throughout, and it times out beautifully for Dylan Cease.
22:39
Dylan Cease's first start this month is tomorrow, which means he gets a full five starts in in the month of September. So we'll get into El Saul Young later.
22:49
That's a big consideration, so the Blue Jays end up being a play for me at plus two 2325. Hope everybody got the best of, uh, the number yesterday.
22:56
And the number one team, it's going back to the team we won with in July. It's the Boston Red Sox. It was 28 to one at William Hill Caesars, which is dead heat shop. I don't love the dead heat part of this, Kelly.
23:06
But it was 17 to one at Circa. The 28 to one was startling to me. I couldn't believe that. So dead heat or not, I went to William Hill Caesars, played that on Sunday. Yep. Um, Red Sox have a middling schedule.
23:18
It's not like the easiest schedule in the world, but they, as I mentioned yesterday, they did get Roman Anthony back just now. They got Trevor Story back just now. Both of them may, made an impact in two games already.
23:28
And the story with Garrett Crochet is, Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox postseason, they are not gonna start him.
23:34
They are gonna put him in the bullpen, and they will bring him back just before, I don't know if it's a week before the end of the season or, or a week and a half, two weeks, sometime in the back end of September, they're gonna bring him back to get in actual game action from the bullpen.
23:47
What I love about the Sox, and I love this again moving forward into the, uh, postseason, maybe we'll do some, uh, World Series matchups later.
23:53
They are going to have that Kansas City Royals 2015 thing happening in whatever order with Crochet, Garrett Whitlock, and Aroldis Chapman. I love 'em in September too at 28 to 1. So Red Sox, Blue Jays, let us go.
24:11
Let's do it. Coming back, Joe Sheehan on Major League Baseball. Maybe he's got a September play. Next on a Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:27
Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin. Losing weight as we speak Good morning Hasn't stopped, has it? Just keep on losing. Yeah? Little bit. Not really.
24:40
I don't know. Okay. You're getting a little uncomfortable about me bringing it up anymore, aren't you? No, I just think it's fu- I can tell...
24:44
I just think it's funny 'cause I've lost like, I've only lost, like, 10 pounds in the past year- Oh... at this point. What's wrong with it? Just hitting the gym, bro. I'm toning out. That's what you're seeing.
24:51
[laughs] You're seeing these muscles starting to pop, baby, all right? That's what it is. You're massive. That's right. You're jacked. Oh, man. Baby. I gotta tell you, uh, in a segment we have free later. Yep.
25:03
Kinda wish you got more emails where I was CC'd on more emails that are sent to you so we could do a segment that's what's in Gil's inbox. Oh, I have no idea what's in it. Oh, you got some good ones this morning. Really?
25:12
That's a good one. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'll, I'll bring you up to speed later. Oh, okay. Sure. Anybody who emails me, I s- I super apologize, I never see them. Nah, he does not.
25:21
And I, I know you, it, it's, it's very nice of you to write, uh, emails, but I, I'm rarely in there. Mm-hmm. Yeah. [laughs] I just wanna point that out. Um, how about Colton Cowser, by the way?
25:32
Drew Maxwell telling us about this. Colton Cowser, the best, maybe the biggest thing, he saved the game with a, uh- That was awesome... home run robbing catch for the Birds yesterday against the Rockies.
25:43
I don't know who that is on the mound. Oh, what a catch. Joe Sheehan, Phillip Simpson coming up. And I love the pitch, the pitcher reactions whenever you get something like that are s- Oh... is the best part of it.
25:51
He's, he's, like, at least two feet over, like, when he catches that ball, at least two feet over the wall, and his back is sort of, like, just his, his spread eagle and the back hits the wall. That's a great catch.
26:03
In that situation, to w- to save a game. That's incredible. That's unbelievable. Wow. Keone Kela on the mound. Thank you, Andrew. There you go.
26:11
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he knows all about baseball, and he's got some September monthly plays as well, and neither of them are matching mine. It's Joe Sheehan, everybody, uh, the author of the Joe Sheehan Newsletter.
26:22
You can follow him on Twitter at joe_sheehan, of course, joesheehan.com. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Joe, good morning. Good morning.
26:30
You know, fellas, as you're talking about the Cowser catch, you know, I can see you from, from my angle here, and they were showing it, it's circa behind you. Oh, wow. Actually, as you were talking about it. Yeah.
26:40
It's, folks, if you get a chance, go online, check it out on TV. It's, and it's funny because we talk about WAR, right? And WAR is fractional and it's this really technical, there's a lot of ways to calculate it.
26:50
A play like that, you almost make the argument that, well, that should be worth one win. Sure. Because if he doesn't catch that, they lose. And if he did catch it, so they win. That's plus one WAR, right?
27:00
Winning Run Replacement. Uh, this is a very in the weeds baseball hard oak question. [laughs] But where are we in the uniformity of WAR these days?
27:07
So I remember w- FanGraphs and, and Baseball-Reference used to have a different, I don't know if they ever got together and standardized it, but I know it's, I see different tallies for different, for, for similar players.
27:18
Same players. They're, they're not. FanGraphs uses, uh, basically the biggest difference for me is that FanGraphs will use FIP for pitchers, which is kind of your theoretical ERA.
27:27
This is what your ERA should be based on strikeout, walk, and, uh, home run rate. Baseball Reference uses actual runs with an adjustment for the defense behind you. So they are calculated differently.
27:37
They also use different defensive inputs. Baseball Reference uses defensive run saved from Sports Info Solutions. Uh, FanGraphs uses the StatCast system over at MLB.
27:47
So you have different inputs, you will get the different answers. I try to use them both. Um, for awards, I prefer to use Baseball Reference though, because of the user's real runs as opposed to FIP.
27:59
Here's the thing though, guys. For awards, I'm using baseline numbers. Average, not average, OBP, slugging, offensive metrics like OPS Plus or weighted runs created plus. I'm looking at defense myself.
28:10
I've moved away from using WAR on an individual level, particularly when it comes to conversations about, you know, who's better.
28:17
I think we have better ways of getting at that question without just reducing it to one number. WAR is really good. I know this is a long answer. WAR is really good for doing studies.
28:26
If I want to look and say, what happens to 32 year olds over their, the next four years? WAR is an excellent tool for that.
28:33
So it is something that we still use, but if you actually want to do serious analysis, we have better tools for that now. I asked the right person. I was just gonna say, what a great answer. Just spectacular answer.
28:43
From Joe Sheehan for a question that we did not telegraph or tell him was coming at all. I do- Fantastic... WAR came up, I wanna know.
28:50
'Cause essen- because, you know, for, for, for people who are like, "Wait a minute, there's a stat and no one agrees on what the number is?" It's kind of like- Pretty crazy...
28:57
they gotta get together on this at some point. But, but that's a great explanation from, from Joe. Uh, okay, let's get to your September plays. You came up with two of yours.
29:09
Yeah, I wanna thank you for turning onto these mar- turning me onto these markets too. I'm really looking forward to digging in on them much deeper next year. Um, I've really enjoyed doing them a little bit this year.
29:17
Going into September, I've got two plays. One is towards the top of the board, and I think it's probably pretty, uh, pretty, uh, square, pretty obvious.
29:24
The Seattle Mariners, who w- took a horrifying loss last night, are at plus 550 to have the most wins in September. Now, they only have 24 games, which is second to a handful of teams that have 25.
29:35
But 17 of those are against the three worst teams in baseball: the Rockies, the Angels, and the, uh, the Athletics.
29:43
Five others are at home against the Rangers and Astros, who they really need to beat, and the other two are against the Red Sox at Fenway. It is one of the worst future schedules I have ever seen.
29:53
It is 50 points worse than the next projected schedule in September. Now look, they've been incredibly disappointing, but the baseline talent level is still there. They've called up Cade Anderson.
30:03
They've called up Lazaro Montes. Hey, look, and if they fire Dan Wilson, that's gonna be worth eight wins all by itself. So give me the Mariners at plus 50 as the sh- as one of the short shots.
30:12
And then the other one, you know... Oh, sorry, Gil, go ahead. No, I was gonna say, 420, you're right. Seattle with the easiest schedule by far the rest of the way.
30:20
420 aggregate win percentage [laughs] of opponents, largely fueled by the Rockies, the Angels, and the Athletics, as you point out. I, I, I only interrupt to say one thing.
30:28
I got a text last night in the group chat from Will Hill, [laughs] who just randomly, I guess he was betting on the Mariners.
30:34
He, it's some, I'll paraphrase 'cause no, I won't get this exactly, but the essence of it was Um, why do all these Mariners pitchers that are supposedly so great all suck?
30:43
Like, can somebody do [laughs] Can somebody recheck all the stats? It really is such a frustration for bettors, right?
30:48
It's like, all these guys are supposed to be great, and it just hasn't materialized, and we're almost completed with the season.
30:54
Yeah, George Kirby's been somebody I've been backing for years, and he's been a disappoint- a disappointment this year. Uh, Bryce Miller really fell apart in the second half.
31:01
It, it's definitely one of the big reasons that they've, uh, they've played so poorly.
31:05
Eduardo Bazardo, who was dominant for them out of the bullpen last year, hasn't been remotely the same guy this year, and they've been missing Matt Brash.
31:11
So the starting rotation hasn't carried the day, the bullpen has been thinned out by injury, and that's how you end up being one of the most disappointing teams in baseball. Okay.
31:19
And, uh, I'm assuming the second one is a much longer shot than that. I- it is. And I'm gonna kind of follow your co- coattails here. You were on the Tigers in August, and they lost 13 out of their last 16.
31:29
Yes, they did. Uh, including last night. They got, uh, they got run out of the gym last night by the Twins.
31:34
But this is still a team, and I'm gonna go back to a number I use a lot, which is third order record, calculated by Clay Davenport, which indicates how good are you beyond your record when you look at the underlying performance, how you perform at the plate, how you perform in the field, your pitching, how good are you.
31:48
And this is a 73 win team- Yeah... in a 63 win body. Yeah. And I j- that's the largest difference in baseball. And you know, that doesn't have to correct in September, but that's the way to bet.
31:58
They're one of the teams that has 25 games, they have the seventh easiest schedule in baseball coming in. And let's face it, guys, we've seen these kind of turnarounds in the AL Central the last few years.
32:08
The Tigers did it two years ago. The Guardians actually did it last year.
32:11
So i- if I'm gonna look for some chaos, if I'm gonna look for a team that might go ahead and go 15 and 3 over the next 18, I'm gonna go with the Tigers. So the numbers point me in that direction.
32:21
They're plus four- they're 40 to 1 at Caesars, and I think that's worth, uh, you know, a, a partial unit to go out and, uh, take a shot at that.
32:28
Interestingly, they were 60 to 1 in, uh, August, and now 40 to 1 here in September after just a horrible stretch. Yeah. Uh, but for all the reasons you state, maybe that is justified. Okay.
32:39
Uh, anything today, Joe, before you go? You know, the, uh, Nats should be getting James Wood back. Uh, they're playing the Braves tonight. They're going up against A.J. Smith-Shawver.
32:49
Wood had a rehab start Sunday, hit a home run in it, yesterday off. We'll see if they bring him back tonight.
32:54
If they do, it's three at bats in the first four innings against a pitcher in Shawver, Smith-Shawver, who has not really pitched that well in his last couple of starts. Uh, six walks, six strikeouts.
33:03
Remember, he's coming back from Tommy John surgery. So the Nats for the first five at plus money, I believe it was plus 20, 120 when I saw it today.
33:10
Nats' first five against Shawver, Smith-Shawver, getting Wood back, I like that play. Enjoy the Nats while you can.
33:16
They only have 22 games left, the f- by far the, uh, not by far, but singularly the lowest, uh, remaining total in all of baseball. Anything else today? I gave you one. Uh, oh, [laughs] sorry. I was trying to remember.
33:29
The Dodgers. Uh, Michael McGreevy goes for the Cardinals tonight. You know, he was a good story in the first half.
33:34
Kind of a pitch to contact guy, was getting a lot out of that in front of a really good Cardinals defense.
33:39
Well, the Cardinals defense has been chipped away by injuries, and that's shown up a little bit in McGreevy's numbers. He has an ERA of about six, a FIP of about five over his last eight starts.
33:48
In those last eight starts, Cardinals opponents have scored 56 runs, seven a game.
33:53
So he goes up against the Dodger team tonight, who definitely has been disappointing here in the second half, but I really like this matchup for the Dodgers to get the bats going.
34:00
Their team total's over four and a half minus 118.
34:02
You're paying a little bit of juice, but I really like them to get to McGreevy, who's not a strikeout guy at all and will give up power, especially to left-handed hitters. All right, 45 seconds.
34:11
Give me a Joe Sheehan four weeks out playoff outlying opinion. Team in, team out, team getting further than we think. However you wanna answer it.
34:21
You know, the Jays have been under 500 basically all year, and I wrote up the, wrote them, wrote them up yesterday. They're 14 and 8 in their last 22.
34:28
They, they made a trade, traded guys away at the deadline, but Brett Bateman has basically replaced Daulton Varsho in center and been good. José Soriano has replaced Kevin Gausman and been good.
34:37
Um, a n- unknown pitcher, Spencer Miles, has taken Jeff Hoffman's innings, and they've basically put it together. This is such an ugly mix of teams that a team under 500 still has a pretty good chance at the playoffs.
34:48
They go to Cleveland this week for three games. They can take two out of three. They have the tiebreaker over the Guardians and the, uh, almost at 500.
34:55
So I think Jays right now are probably the team outside the playoff mix that can get it. Music to my ears for someone who has the m- most wins in the month of September. Joe, always a pleasure. Thank you so much, sir.
35:07
Thanks, fellas. Joe Sheehan, everybody. @joe_sheehan. Joe Sheehan Newsletter, joesheehan.com. How about some AFC power rankings? This should be fun next.
35:16
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36:07
You still haven't signed up for, uh, Survivor Millions? No, I'm gonna, I'm gonna do it this week, though. Don't forget, man. It was, uh... I've, oh, I've started. I g- I've got the itch, bro. I'm ready to go.
36:17
I'm ready to go. I started placing bets over the weekend, put another one in yesterday. Yes, contests I will get in prob- by the end of this week. We got, uh, randomly two tweets about the Dolphins.
36:30
We haven't brought them up today. There's randomly two different tweets about the Dolphins. That's more, that's more Dolphins tweets com- than combined all summer.
36:37
This will segue perfectly into our f- [laughs] our what i- what could be a ridiculous stab At our first AFC power rankings. And I don't know that I can defend any... Well, I can defend, I'm not gonna defend any of it.
36:49
I'll just s- isolate a few teams. But here are the two random Dolphins tweets. No, let's really build it up. Let's argue at, uh, at, let's yell at each other like, uh- Okay... where we have the- Like we have-...
36:58
Titans at is just ridiculous... it's like we have solidified opinions. How dare you? Uh, Tim Bowers, "Gil, every time I hear about roster moves the Dolphins make, I can't help but apply a survivor lens to it.
37:08
I think a big part of survival b- will be knowing when to pick against the Dolphins. Thinking that the Raiders week one survivor pick keeps making more sense." Yeah.
37:16
We had Jason Lisk on last week talking about the, uh, the game theory of that. Dell Mind the Gap Radio, "Based on their final roster, the Fins are likely to start 1 and 0 and lose 16 straight.
37:28
My prediction as a diehard Fin supporter, favorite player, number 25, Tim Foley." There you go. I'm- Two, two, uh, tweets randomly about the putridity. Is that a word, putridity? Eh, let's go with it. Yeah.
37:43
Of the Miami Dolphins. I don't wanna say you got in my head, but, like, a little bit. What do you mean? Just the... No, the, that Raiders-Dolphins survivor selection week one.
37:51
Oh, it was Jason Lisk who brought it up first. No, I know. I didn't bring it up. No, I know, and I was kind of thinking about it. Yeah.
37:55
But no, you, you kind of made a comment w- I think yesterday was like, "Oh, yeah, you really gonna wanna live through that, did it?"
38:00
Yeah, no, I- It is right away, like, you wanna put, put a dime on the line with the Raiders? Like, you ready to go a battle with that right out of the gates? Exactly. Because l- literally, like, that, that is true.
38:08
I did say that yesterday. 'Cause there's, y- you could be two, two drives into this, you'll be like, "What have I done? What was th- what was this?"
38:14
It, it g- goes back to the classic Gil Alexander, the object of the game, though. Our object of the game is to win though. Is to win. But, like, for week one, would I rather kind of survive with an entry? Yeah, maybe.
38:24
First stab at a AFC power rankings. We, we were like, "Should we do one through 10?" And we were like, "Ah, let's do a ball." No, come on, man, you're out of rhythm. Let's plug it in and power it up. Oh, let's do it.
38:33
[upbeat music] TC 101. There you go. 107.1. The Fonz. Classic rock. Oh, birds. They- Do you, do you remember the gall of Rob Moreno? I do. Robert Boricua Moreno
38:52
claimed that those were not bird sounds. He edited it. Yeah. And then he finally admitted they were. Finally backed down. After Tom Check ran to have his back right away. Pants on fire.
39:03
And- I lo- I love why, but he, he will run to have someone's back against us quicker than anybody. He really is. I don't really know why that is. I don't know either. I don't know what we did to that guy.
39:10
Anyway, I got the Dolphins 16th. Sorry, Reza in San Francisco, who's a lifelong Dolphins fan, who thinks any comment negative outs the Dolphins is a personal attack at him. Dolphins 16th, Raiders 15th.
39:25
You have that as well? Yeah. Okay. I believe that exact order. Here's where I probably get a little controversial. I got the Steelers 14th. I just think this is the end of the road. I know we're not used to seeing this.
39:36
I know this is, like, this will jar some people. I know Jason Stark's gonna tweet us now immediately, "Another year where you're fading the Steelers." Okay, that's not me every year. I'm just saying.
39:46
I just think- [laughs]... finally the age, it's not a Tomlin thing. I think this is likely to have happened if Tomlin was the coach, but I think he got out right as the getting was good.
39:56
These players are just too, like, you have, Aaron Rodgers is going to be 43 in December. Why does anybody think he's any good? There was no signs of that.
40:04
FTN Almanac does a great job of sort of showing how inept Rodgers was even last year. They go into some deep stats. Um, Hayward is gonna be 37 on the defensive line.
40:16
I just feel like at some point it's going to catch up to you, and I think this is the year. I have the Steelers only better than the Raiders and Dolphins. Then 13, Titans, 12th, Colts.
40:28
I, I have a feeling Shane Steichen could be first coach fired. Really do. 11, Jets, 10, Browns. Now let me, th- I have the Browns at 10. People might say, "Oh, that's high for the Browns."
40:38
Besides quarterback, terrible phrase to start any NFL sentence with, besides quarterback, it's a pretty s- pretty solid team. If they can get any modicum of play from that position,
40:50
I don't, let's put it this way, I'm not telling, I'm not saying they're making the playoffs or anything, but I don't think they suck as hard as people think they do. Cleveland? Yeah. Oh, I think they suck. Okay.
40:59
I think they suck. Well, it's- I, like, I think the defense will be good. I think the defense will still be good, but I think the offense could be such a disaster that it doesn't matter. Anyway, I got them 10th. Okay.
41:09
All right. I mean, like, look, can I really argue? I have them lower. Am I really gonna sit here and, and argue that the Jets should be higher right now, or the Titans for sure? Nah, not gonna do that. Yeah. All right.
41:20
And then here's the top nine. These are all teams that different folks have making the playoffs. I ended up with the Jags at nine, the Patriots because of schedule primarily at eight,
41:31
and then the seven playoff teams ultimately, Chargers seven, Texans six. I probably should talk about that. We have got nothing but incoming positive Texans talk this summer. Yeah.
41:43
Positive to the point that people think they're making the Super Bowl, the best team. I don't get it. I really don't understand why we have segued immediately into, oh yeah, now all of a sudden I do believe that C.J.
41:54
Stroud will return to how he was two years ago or three years ago. Mm-hmm. And then, and the offensive line will support him. I'm not sure I can get there. Six. See, I have them making the playoffs.
42:02
I have them winning their division. Yes. But I'm just not ready to go crazy that they're gonna have the best record or one of the top five in the conference. Win total's nine and a half. I think that's kind of accurate.
42:12
Mm-hmm. Maybe if they go 10 and seven. We're both kind of right. Um, so I have them sixth. Uh, let's throw those back up there if we could, guys. Number five, I have the Broncos.
42:23
I'm probably a little higher on the Broncos than most. Maybe, I don't know, maybe I'm lower on the Broncos than many have them. I still think that defense is great.
42:30
I think they can coach, but I think they w- I think they don't win their division, though. I give Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs their one last rebound here to get to win their division. I have them fourth. Bills three.
42:42
I kind of hedge with that, 'cause just if something happens to Josh Allen, good God. Oh, for sure. And I got Ravens one, Bengals two. So Bengals two, Ravens are the top of the heap.
42:50
Okay, I dig it I love, I love the Jesse Minter hire. Do I, can I defend any of those- I love Minter too... to the death? Absolutely not. I love Minter, too.
42:58
That's just my- And I get, I get- That's how I'm starting the season...
43:00
I get it with what you're saying about the Bills, and that's, I usu- I'll put, I'll use the same sort of reasoning to put them number one, 'cause Josh Allen doesn't get hurt, you know? Yeah. He's the...
43:09
But, uh, I do have, I do have concerns on the defensive side of the ball. Yeah, I, I have the division bet on the Bills. There's nothing else that I've bet.
43:16
It's not like I've run to bet them to win the Super Bowl or anything. I did start with them number one. Gonna con- circle back. I didn't wanna cut you off, but circle back to that Texans conversation.
43:25
This is where my brain's been at for the past week, where we've been talking about all this Texans love, right?
43:30
Let's compare them to the Denver Broncos real quick and just play the old, the old game of check the boxes, right? I like this. I like this. Well done. The defenses are relatively similar, right?
43:42
I'm gonna put the Texans above the Broncos, but slightly. I think we're s- we're still talking about two top five defenses in the NFL. Very fair. Very fair. Okay?
43:50
The Denver Broncos have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Houston Texans, that has been a major red flag for, for how many years now? Mm-hmm. Three in a row? Four in a row? Whatever it's been.
44:03
Quarterback skill. Would you take Stroud or Nix? Uh- This isn't a leading question, 'cause I don't really care. I don't think there's a huge difference. Yeah. I don't, I don't know right now.
44:13
But I think I've still seen less of Nix, where I th- I, I b- I can hold out for a little bit more of an upside still. Agree. Agree. Stroud's gotta bounce back a little bit from what we saw.
44:23
And then, I, I, I think, I love Nico Collins. I think he's one of the best wide receivers in football.
44:28
But overall weapons for the team, like Jalen Waddell got added to this te- this is a Broncos team that I think there's some receivers on it that are, like, there's a lot to like there.
44:39
I, this has been a, a week-long conversation, or, in conversation in my head, Gil, of if we're so high on Houston, why isn't Denver right up there in the same sort of conversation?
44:49
So I'm gonna start the year Denver Broncos number two.
44:52
I'm start- With that high a floor of defense, I think the offense, if they can do anything, we are talking about one of probably, probably would be the best team in the AFC if, like, my Josh Allen love didn't get in the way.
45:02
Just being real about it, okay? So that's where I'm starting with the Broncos. I think I'm gonna end up with an AFC West division bet before the season starts.
45:09
I bet them yesterday, took three points for week one, uh, against the Chiefs. Already in on the Broncos week one. So I'm kinda high on the Broncos to start. Sounds like you are, too.
45:18
Broncos two, then I went Ravens, Bengals, three, four. Yeah, I think that's, this top five, though, is strong. Texans five. I'm very high on the Jacksonville Jaguars and how they finished last season.
45:29
I'm gonna go right back to it. I feel like they've been one of the least talked about teams this off season. Six for them, Chiefs seven, Chargers eight, Patriots nine. So we have the same top nine teams. Yes, we do.
45:39
And then how did I finish it out? Colts 10, Steelers 11, Jets 12, Titans 13, Browns 14, Raiders 15, and the Miami Dolphins number 16. All told, not that different. No.
45:51
Yeah, same nine teams at the top, just different order. When we come back, tweets on every side of all these telling us how ridiculous we are. Right. One after another. Plus, Joe Peed on prediction markets. Let's do it.
46:03
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