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Sep 1, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 1, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 1, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
47:00
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Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
0:15
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:21
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:27
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:37
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:44
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
0:53
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:02
Hour number two, the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 189. [laughs] Got it that time. Que pasa? Today's the first day on 189.
1:16
Uh, still to come this hour, Joe Peta will join us momentarily, talk prediction markets with us. Uh, a little later on, JVT, talk college football. Paul Spoor, baseball. We love an ornery Paul Spoor, don't we?
1:28
Oh, God, I love it. Paul Spoor angry at the world. I love it. 20- 2026 Paul Spoor has been the best on air Paul Spoor, uh, since I've joined the show. We get tweets reading the book. I love it.
1:38
Chris Heath, "Does Kelly have a second job and 17 kids like Will Hill? Why hasn't he signed up for the contest yet? Starting to give me anxiety." It's just right be- uh, like, 'cause, 'cause it's right behind us.
1:48
Great tweet, Chris. Excellent tweet. Okay, get off your high horse. You signed up two days ago. [laughs] It's- We're procrastinators... I sure did. Uh, it's, it's just, it's right behind us.
1:57
I- it'll take us, it will take me seven minutes one day after work. Eh. I just picture you as the guy at 10:00 AM on Sunday of, or the 10:00 AM of Sunday, opening Sunday. Wait, what is the cutoff?
2:08
Oh, maybe you should know. Maybe you should learn that before you- Like, is it, is it-... before you get all arrogant about it. Is it Wednesday? No, 'cause you gotta let the two games play out.
2:16
The, there's the- This is the Fezzik strategy. Yeah, this is the Fezzik strategy, right? But it might be, but it might be Saturday. Might be Saturday. Okay. Well, look, I predicted this.
2:23
Kenny Dillingham Sexual, that is your real name, "The Steelers are just not a bottom three AFC team, LOL." He's mocking me for that. Kelly had 'em bottom six, by the way.
2:33
[laughs] Then Jason Stark, "I'm gonna give you a pass today, Gil. I must admit, I'm quite concerned as well with the Steelers. Think McCarthy's a horrible choice for head coach."
2:43
So there's a Steelers fan, Kelly Dillingham Sexual, countering you.
2:46
Torch D, the one who put the satin in your panties, says, "Listening to Kelly talk about the Broncos versus the Texans removes all satin from my panties. I've been screaming this for two years.
2:55
The Texans are simply the poor man's Broncos." Followed by TDG, "The only pushback I'd have on your rankings is a Aaron Schatz philosophy that defense isn't as predictive year to year. See Broncos and Texans."
3:07
No, I, th- look, I think that's, that's well said. I- I love football. As soon as you even- Yeah... whisper one sentence, everybody jumps in, counter arguments.
3:16
Uh- And, and look, the other part of it, if you're talking something like win totals or something, right? Like, yeah, the T- the Texans play in an easier division, for sure. There's no doubt about that.
3:25
Like, I'm not saying end of the regular season, yeah, they could finish with a better record. Trust this team, though, as a stronger team entering the season.
3:32
Ladies and gentlemen, he's the author of the book Trading Bases. Uh, also the author of several other books, including Joe Peta's Tour Guide to the Masters 2019.
3:43
Uh, there's also the book that he wrote assessing financial m- uh, financial pl- uh, not really financial planners. Really portfolio managers, I should say.
3:53
Uh, it was the, uh, Money Ball for the Money Set was the name of that one. And of course, he's coming off a great talk at BetBash where he talked about the evolution of the baseball betting market.
4:04
It's the great Joe Peta, everybody. Joining us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @MagicRatSF, coming to us from San Francisco. Good morning, Joe. Good morning, Gil.
4:14
Good morning, Kelly. Uh, thanks for doing this. Appreciate it.
4:17
Um, well, I wanna get into some of the stuff you talked about at BetBash, 'cause you get a, you gave a great sort of dissertation, among other things, about, uh, creating synthetic CLV, which I wanna get into.
4:30
But first, let's just talk about sort of the latest news with prediction markets. We have a couple companies, Novig, ProfitX, the latest, that, uh, have been mandated to switch their pricing. Explain that to us. Yeah.
4:45
They must, uh, under CFTC regulations now, they must, uh, quote their contract prices, uh, in, uh, d- um, percentage terms, uh, as opposed to American odds, which f- as sports bettors we are all used to.
5:01
Um, that sort of aligns them with what Kalshi and Polymarket have done, sort of the leaders, uh, in the space. And, and, uh, the CFTC has mandated that. They had no choice.
5:11
For sports bettors that are certainly used to the language we normally speak, it's, it's a bit of a difficult, uh, switch.
5:18
Um, I will say that I think, uh, while Novig improved on Kalshi, uh, Profit has definitely improved on all of them and has the best setup for those of us who need that, you know, sort of Berlitz English to French, uh- [laughs]...
5:35
uh, translation. Um, it's easiest to do on Profit, and it still preserves all of the price points that we are used to, uh, as, you know, bettors using, uh, American odds.
5:49
Do you think, Joe, that that will, uh, ebb the tide of migration to prediction markets in any sort of significant way? Um, no.
6:02
Um, and I will tell you that when Novig announced first last week, there was all sorts of comments back to them, back to Jacob, their, their co-founder, and to the Novig account that, "I'm withdrawing my funds.
6:14
Never, uh, you know, never betting here again." And I was like, "Really? You'll, you'll, you'll, you'll eschew better pricing, you know, for [laughs] you know, for, I don't know, for a moral high ground?"
6:27
But I watch very closely. Now, the thing about being, um, reg- uh, regulated by the CFTC is you must report your results every day as a DCM. That's what these licenses are. It's a designated contract.
6:41
Uh, what the C, uh, what the M stands for is, is, uh, um, is evading me right now. But, um, might, might be marketplace. Anyway, they have to print every day what their activity is.
6:54
Well, I've watched Novig's activity since that, you know, since the backlash from their supposed, uh, customer base. It's only grown since then. No, no noticeable backlash that I could see, uh, change in their business.
7:07
So I, I, I think it's more inconvenient for Gil, for sure, um, but I don't think it ultimately changes the long run. I think that's, uh, that's probably a very fair answer to that.
7:17
I wanna, again, I wanna get into some of the nuts and bolts 'cause there's a lot of people listening who are like, "I, I, I only deal with traditional sports books, and I, I am interested in prediction markets."
7:26
And, and we'll get into sort of a prediction market 101 here with Joe. But I, I would be remiss if I didn't sort of address some stuff going on. It's, it's...
7:34
I don't know, I think it's sort of, uh, getting louder every day, the, the conflict between the regulated sports book operators and their qualms with prediction markets.
7:46
Um, why don't, if, if you could, ex- if you could sort of characterize what their, what their stated criticisms are, and address those, if you would. Yeah. I, I could, Gil, and we, we'd probably run through this segment.
7:59
I, I should give an overview first, which is to say that the, the, the recent criticism, the recent news has come from, from Derek at Circa, Derek Stevens, and Jeff Benson, Jeffrey Benson last night.
8:10
And, you know, my overview of both of them as professionals is that, you know, when Bugsy Siegel invented the, you know, the, the Vegas hotel casino strip, what, 80 years ago? So 75 years later it's a mature industry.
8:26
So do you know how hard it is to be additive to a mature industry? And somehow Derek Stevens did it. He is additive to Vegas, right? He completely revitalized downtown. Fremont Street might be a ghost town without him.
8:40
And my experience as an investor over 30 years on Wall Street, and, and trader, et cetera, is I've always thought to be good at retail or hospitality, it has to be in your bones, your DNA.
8:53
You cannot MBA your way to a successful hospitality or retail outlet.
8:58
By the same token, customer service is in your blood, too, and I don't think there's a better employee in Nevada than Jeffrey Benson to, uh, you know, to be the public face and the customer service face of the sports book industry, right?
9:13
So that, I, I hope that conveys my respect for them as professionals. That said, if you take Derek's...
9:20
If you strip out the vitriol and the name-calling, Derek's complaint basically is these prediction markets have figured out how to circumvent state licensing and federal excise taxes and all sorts of state transaction taxes, and as an incumbent he's furious.
9:42
I don't disagree with what he...
9:45
you know, that fact, but I will say, my friend, that's innovation, and it's innovation that you embrace in exactly the same form that has occurred in other innovative areas of both your business and your life.
10:01
And, you know, like, uh, Lyft and Uber, those business models, it... Look, they're just taxi cab dispatchers, right? They're Louie De Palma in corporate form.
10:12
But what they figured out was how to circumvent medallion cost, franchise fees, state and local transaction taxes, and obviously those are additive to the Circa business model. Like, look at the Taj Mahal.
10:27
Like, that is to make ride sharing as easy as possible, and yet those busin- Who were the complainers? The incumbent taxi drivers making the same argument that Derek does. Go back to Amazon.
10:39
Amazon, you know, their whole thing was arb-ing out the collection of state and local taxes. Who complained? Or sales taxes, rather. Who complained? You know, who were throwing toys out of their crib?
10:50
Walmart and Barnes & Noble making the exact same arguments. Heck, I think Circa accepts Bitcoin now for their, for their, uh, uh, contest fees.
10:59
Well, the whole origin story of Bitcoin is to circumvent government intervention. So the, these arguments fall very hollow to me.
11:09
They're just an incumbent complaining, and I think we should treat them the same way we treated the, the, you know, the arguments from other incumbents when they're being disrupted.
11:19
They love innovation when they're not being disrupted, and when they're being disrupted they suddenly love government intervention and taxes as long as it protects their moat.
11:30
And I will sort of add this, was my thought as you were talking, and I'm curious if, if you think this is fair.
11:36
Also, those very same people I'm guessing, I'm guessing that if we gave them truth serum and they were betting in jurisdictions of prediction markets
11:47
where you're getting much better pricing, I'm guessing they're betting with prediction markets, aren't they? Well, they all love sports betting just as I do and you do, and if I...
11:55
You know, when- I, I did what they did as a market maker on Wall Street. I was a bookie, right? That's all I was. That's why I live in the house I live in and, you know, et cetera.
12:04
But yes, it, it, that's what disappoints me about them embracing and, like, retweeting these complaints, because at their heart they're sports bettors, and if they were sports bettors they'd do the same thing we do, which is search out the best product.
12:17
Yeah. Okay, um, we'll get off this.
12:20
We'll get to a little prediction market 101 on the other side, and also, uh, Joe just did, gave a great talk at BetBash, and it, part of it, most of it, or like the crux of it, was about creating synthetic CLVs at prediction markets, and I want Joe to go through how he does that.
12:37
Uh, let's get into that next on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
12:49
But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
13:00
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
13:13
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
13:18
Make a smart buy on the off-road ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
13:25
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
13:31
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
13:38
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
13:47
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
13:54
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
14:03
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. If you missed our NFL Futures draft, we made it really easy to catch up.
14:21
Listen to this, Kelly. We took every pick from the show, put it into one free PDF. Nice. That's a file, by the way. I don't know if you know that.
14:27
[snorts] All you have to do is go to vsin.com/download and you can grab your copy of all 130 plays listed out in order. Plus, we included a breakdown of all the picks by category.
14:37
So if you wanna get up to speed, or you want a clean reference to come back to, go grab the free NFL Futures draft PDF at vsin.com/download. That's V-S-I-N.com/download. There you go. Keyshawn Johnson was there.
14:50
VSiN's own Nick Bakay and VSiN's own Keyshawn Johnson. That's awesome. Yeah, they were both there as well. You got, uh, you and Dave Ross are sharing the same shirt- Me and Dave?... for some reason. That's odd.
15:00
Well, he's, he's fashion icon, that Dave Ross. Biggest smile I've ever seen on Paul Howard's face. [laughs] He's very, he was very happy to be photographed there.
15:08
Uh, Joe Pease kind enough to, uh, join us for a second so that we talk prediction markets. Um, and by the way, I call... I went through ch- some of the books that Joe has written.
15:16
Um, really I buried the headline with Joe. He is a, he's the head of gaming at Cantor Fitzgerald as well. Oh, by the way, um, went to Stanford's Graduate School of Business.
15:26
I bring that last part up because, uh, you were saying, this is [laughs] he texted me yesterday, Stanford obviously hosting the University of Miami, and Joe texts me. What did you text me?
15:34
Who, guess who the halftime show [laughs] is, and the halftime show is who? It is Bay Area superstar recording artist E-40- [laughs] Yeah... which would seem very in, incongruent with a Stanford football game.
15:49
As I think I said to you, as incongru- incongruent as Anita Bryant playing at a Florida State Miami game. [laughs] That's right. 40 Fonzarelli doing the halftime. And Gil's missing all his favorites.
16:00
You missed E-40 earlier this summer. Oh, I'm, I'm, I'm going to San Francisco on Friday. Maybe I'll... Eh, I don't know if I can sell- Well, yeah, you're leaving Friday.
16:07
You're, y- you're gonna miss your boy, uh, Babyface. Oh, yes. Over at the Palms. No, I am. That's all, uh- Skipping out on him... uh, don't get me started. Don't get me started.
16:14
All right, Joe, uh, by the way, let me just, uh, compliment you on your sh- on your talk at BetBash. I was not present, but I was privileged enough to get a video of it. You, you seemed v- you didn't seem nervous at all.
16:26
Are you, are, uh, are you a public speaker? Like, are you super comfortable in those situations?
16:32
Post the book, my first book being published, when you have to go out and g- uh, go on, you know, the, the, the book tour circuit and then do endless radio hits and podcasts, I did get very comfortable speaking, which w- you know, was a benefit.
16:48
Um, so, uh, um, it's nice to hear you say that. I'm glad it came off that, comes off that way. Yeah. Um, because yeah, you do, uh, I have gotten good at even speaking without a script at all.
16:59
But, you know, I always say, like, radio hits are one thing, being on air is one thing. I used to do Summer Jams, right? We'd have 25,000 people. That's another thing, and you don't see faces, right? Yeah.
17:07
Just a sea of humanity. It's kind of easy. But when it's like 200 people or 150 people in a room or however many- It's different... that's different. Yeah.
17:15
That's hard to me, 'cause I'm like, "Oh, God, I'm being-" No- nobody- Yeah...
17:19
no- nobody has ever characterized that better than Jerry Seinfeld, who in his old, old stand-up act used to say that if you ask, you know, whenever they do surveys, "What's your biggest fear?"
17:30
The number two fear is fear of dying, and the number one fear is public speaking. Yeah. So as he says, that means you'd rather be in the box than giving the eulogy. [laughs] That's very true.
17:42
Okay, for those listening, Joe, who, uh- Yeah...
17:45
who are, you know, they're used to betting in sports books, they're used to using apps now as well, they hear about prediction markets, they hear about Polymarket, Kalshi, Novig, Profitex, they hear about all this stuff.
17:57
They're curious, but they haven't made the leap yet.
18:00
Can you give us the ele- may- maybe even beyond the elevator pitch, just sort of the, the The pitch that you would give to sort of explain as simply as possible to folks, here's why you ought to consider it and then make the conversion to doing it.
18:14
Yeah. The first step is just the most basic step is the spreads are smaller, right? There's always an implied cost and an explicit cost no matter where you trade.
18:23
On a sportsbook, there is no explicit cost, just the implied cost is the spread, or let's call it a 20 cent spread on a normal -110/-110 game. Um, on- when you pull up Kalshi or Polymarket, you know, or these other...
18:37
L- l- let's just stick to those before we get to the sports native ones. You will see, um, an ins- i- implicit spread of simply 1%. You know, a game might be a, a, a toss-up game will be listed as 50/51.
18:49
Now, there are explicit costs in there, um, and Kalshi is very good at hiding them, not making it, you know, difficult. It's difficult to unwind, but really it's a 12 cent line.
19:01
If you are a taker, if you just cross the spread and, and take the offer or hit the bid, i- it's essentially a 12 cent spread. So no better than say Circa for baseball, but obviously it would be better for football.
19:14
Now, at, at a Novig or Profit it gets even better.
19:18
For Novig, if we're just talking spread total money line, there are no explicit costs at all, and the only implicit cost is the spread, and you will see the spread, it's typically one cent or two cents, and now that they're in percent terms, they go to a half percent, right?
19:33
So instead of a 1% spread, you know, their tightest market will add to 100.5.
19:39
Um, at Profit there is a 2% explicit tax on winnings or fee on winnings, but they als- their implicit costs can get even tighter, because you can still, each one of their percentages go to two decimals so that it's set up so it's exactly -101, -102, et cetera.
19:56
So those same price points exist. So their tightest market is virtually locked because it would be 100 by -101 or 100 by +101.
20:07
So just simply from a user standpoint, smaller transaction fees, which as we like to say, can never turn a losing bet into a winning bet, but you will lose less or win more on every single bet. That's the simple pitch.
20:21
Now, it gets even better if you wanna be a little more sophisticated. I, if you have any questions, I can go to the next sort of- No, please... phase two- Go ahead... of usage. Yes, phase two. Okay.
20:31
So that is really to me the magic of prediction markets, or what a prediction market or exchange is.
20:38
It is a mechanism to transfer wealth from the impatient person to the patient person, and that is where you can essentially turn your recreational bets into mildly plus EV bets by being a maker, so that when you go on a Novig or a Profit and let's see, you see a, a game that's about to be on TV and it looks, you know, let's say it's listed at -102, uh, +102, right?
21:08
Or -102/-102. Instead of paying -102, just go in there and place an order at +101.
21:17
It will then show up as -101 on the other side, and I guarantee you, you are going to get matched on a popular game with a spread that tight. That's it. That's peer-to-peer, buddy. Now you...
21:31
[laughs] That, that is peer-to-peer, and you have the +101 or +102 or +103, whatever you're pa- whatever you're patient enough to put out there and wait. So it's not instantaneous, it's not a buy it now button,
21:44
but it really can turn your, you know, like I say, it can turn every recreational bet into a mildly plus EV bet.
21:53
That is the real utility of a, of an exchange, and you're taking advantage of the person who just wants to cross the spread and get it done and say, "Oh, -103 is better than, than -110, so I'll just pay it."
22:06
Well, if you're the +103, that's beautiful for you. We're all familiar with CLV, closing line value. Um,
22:14
Elihu Feustel, with his pen name Simon Noble at Pinnacle, used to talk about, "Hey, you know, bookmakers online can often predict who's gonna be successful, who's gonna be, uh, not successful based on the rate at which you beat closing line value."
22:27
People are familiar with that. You described at BetBash a way to sort of create it on prediction markets. Can you describe that for us? Sure.
22:36
And the topic sort of was how has baseball betting changed over 15 years, and one thing I know you and I have talked about off air is how
22:44
from betting overnight lines today versus 15 years ago, how much less CLV is possible to obtain. The overnight lines are much sharper than they used to be- Yes... 15 years ago, right?
22:56
They've modeled it just like the sharpest bettors used to.
23:00
So that type of CLV has shrunk, but what is available i- again, if you're patient and you're dealing in markets that aren't super crowded by, say, professional market makers, right?
23:13
But if you're doing strikeout props or touchdown props or home run props, one of the ways, what you can do is put out two offers at +106 on each side, and if you get taken on one side, and again, this is a few hours before the game, then try to buy it back at even money.
23:31
And if you do that, what I always say is if you s- if you have a $200 bet on one side that gets taken at +106, and then you get 100 of it back by being a maker at even money, your 100 left is now a +112 bet, right?
23:48
And if, that's CLV. If, right? [laughs] You've got, you know, you've got 100 at, if you had 200 at +106 and then 100 on the other side at even money, you now have a net 100 at +112.
24:00
Do that a few times on a market that's trading nicely like a Paul scheme strikeout market, where you're going to get interest on both sides, and you can start that game with like a net position at +125, +130, you know, on a pick a market.
24:14
That's CLV, right? It's a beautiful thing. It's a very beautiful thing.
24:19
Um, hope every, uh, maybe not the, you know, again, the s- the, that part at the end there, some people are gonna hear that and be like, "Oh, I'm totally doing that."
24:26
There's gonna be some others who are like, "Okay, let's go back to the 101 stuff." That stuff really resonates, I think, with people. Uh, well said, as articulated, none better does so than Joe Peta.
24:38
Always appreciate it, Joe. Thank you so much. Thanks, guys. Have a good one. Joe, Joe P- We all get smarter every time you're on, Joe. That's right. I know this for sure. We really do.
24:45
It's like Roxy used to say about Rufus. He goes, "Every time I talk to Rufus Peabody- Mm-hmm... he goes, "I get a little smarter." Same thing with Joe. Uh, @MagicRatSF, by the way, for Joe on Twitter.
24:55
I don't believe I mentioned that here in this segment. Uh, we'll come back. We'll take a look around the NFL. We also have Jonathan Vontobel joining us, Paul Spohrer.
25:03
It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Unmatched transparency with records updated daily. It's the sharp plays.
25:20
Check 'em out. AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, alerts directly from the pros. Scan the QR code for Mo. Sharpblaze.com. We got tweets at Beating The Book, best listeners in the game.
25:33
By the way, how's everybody enjoying SiriusXM channel 189? Does it feel like a new car? No? No? Nothing? I, I rushed, I rushed a couple segments ago to see what the old 189 was. Oh, we have tweets about it. Oh, we do.
25:45
Well- I'll let you, I'll let you r- read them then. Patrick Kelly, "Hey, what the hell? I fire up SiriusXM to listen to Gill and Kelly, and I'm hearing Texarkana traffic and weather." Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
25:55
I, see, see, that's what's gonna happen for our listeners, right? Yeah. I, I was hoping we were going to invade a, a different audience. Oh. But unfort- uh, unfortunately, this channel was just MLB play-by-play at night.
26:05
Oh, okay. You want- So, yeah... you want like to be completely different demographic, completely different topic. I wanted people losing their minds over hearing us, being, just being just angry as hell.
26:17
For those of you expecting to hear Rachmaninoff's Concerto Number Five, Opus 3- Exactly. [laughs] Welcome to a Numbers Game. [laughs] Now for something a little different.
26:28
Uh, Chris Heath, "I spent way too much time in settings on ProphetX trying to switch back to American odds yesterday. Wish I knew it was mandated." Yeah. By the way, Fezzik, can I just tell you?
26:37
This is just such a window into Fezzik. Fezzik is on the group chat. No, he sees No Vig's odds change. He's like, in typical Fezzik fashion, "Why would they be this dumb?" [laughs] "Why would they change it to this?
26:49
How could you be so stupid?" I'm like, "Steve, do you ever figure out that they might know more, knew, and that it was mandated?" Oh, never mind. You know, I, I didn't wanna interrupt Joe there, but
26:59
you know, we always laugh about the sports fan mode on Calci. Yeah. So, so you can have it as long as you have it as like a secondary setting, 'cause Calci still has it. American odds I'm talking about.
27:10
Oh, they have a, uh, the toggle still? Like, you can still do the toggle to, to sports fan mode. Hmm. Yeah. Interesting. I'm looking at it right now. Huh. Maybe you just alerted- Huh... the authorities. Huh.
27:22
Uh, JSA723, "I'm sorry, but are we sure Paula Badosa's still on the must-watch list?" Oh, you mean for that reason? What are you trying to say? What are you trying to say about her?
27:33
Uh, James Fessler, "I keep waiting for an El Oso or Estamos Seguros, but the Spanish simulcast is slacking. They also seem to be confusing your R&B references for musicals." I said que pasa earlier.
27:44
What's this Racines Musicales they got on there? Ja- Jason McKinney, "I'm on holiday in Galveston." [laughs] Is that where you went on a holiday? That's where, uh, Charles Barkley sends the really bad NBA playoff teams.
27:55
Yeah. Forget Cancun, send them to Galveston with all that dirty water. Galveston's gotta be a party, though. On holiday in Galveston listening to y'all and watching the tropical storm blowing. Oh man, be safe.
28:04
"I have noticed the show seems a little off. Are you missing a producer? Just kidding. Just wanted to give a shout-out and hear Gill say, 'Danny.'
28:11
Love of the show, and I can't wait to get back to Louisiana to make some month-long baseball bets." Jason, be careful out there, man. Tropical storm's no joke.
28:19
By the way, did you see the, this- Darnell's trying to get me in trouble. I'm fi- I'll repeat what I said off air. D- Higgins has leveled up big time. Are you kidding me?
28:25
He just sent the crew a picture of him, like, walking a dog this morning. He's g- moved to Montana, girl, job with an office. Girlfriend. Girlfriend. Yes. Do, uh, job with an office.
28:38
I don't know about you, I've never had an office in my entire career. No, I don't know what that is. Office, house, dog. [laughs] He's like a real human being. He's, it's like real human life. Oh, man. Kyle D.
28:48
@Dom_Corleone28, "I know the Browns quarterback situation is absolutely booty, but I'm getting more Vietnam flashbacks to my Packers pick last year when they tied against the Cowboys.
28:59
I can see the Browns D coming out of the gates ready to prove they don't need miles to win." Me too, Kyle D. Me too. It could be. I saw Cleve tw- uh, tweeting about, uh, the Jags yesterday.
29:10
I was wondering if he was listening to us or not. Uh, Cleve, let's get Cleve on this week, Thursday. That's a good call. Bang. Done. Cleve.
29:17
[laughs] I was wondering, it was one of those, it was one of those great tweets about the Jags- Yeah... and how there's a little too much love week one.
29:24
I was like, "I wonder if he just heard me talk about my three teasers where I tied the, uh, Jags into." You know what I have to do before his appearance on Thursday? Uh, play around with the survivor tool on his site.
29:36
It's great. It's fantastic. He's added some stuff there too. Yeah. If you wanna play, uh, the optimal way with survivor.
29:42
By the way, funniest part of the US Open yesterday, you see the video of Emma Navarro having just beaten- So funny... Louise Boyzon. [laughs] It's not even, it's not even funny.
29:51
It's- It, the, the angle is of Navarro having just shaken the hand of the umpire, turning back to the crowd to clap to the crowd, and in the background, Louise Boyzon just pulverizing her racket on the ground over and over.
30:06
But this is, okay, so is- It's, it's so great... isn't this, for a tennis bettor- Yeah... and a golf bettor. Yes, sir.
30:12
Isn't that exactly how you wa- if you're, especially if you're betting on the person, but just anybody you're rooting for. Is it, isn't how b- Bousso- Bousson? Boisson. Boisson. Yeah.
30:22
Apolog- apologies for my French accent. Boisson. Isn't that exactly how you want them to act? 'Cause she shook her hand, right? She did the full class act- Yeah... right after the match. Yeah.
30:33
Got out of the way and let her celebrate. Yeah, I know. But just is in the background, is going crazy. I mean, we've seen Daniil Medvedev do it even worse than that. Yeah, but that's what I- Yeah...
30:41
I, like, I want you to, I want you to act classy, right? Y- oh, when you, when, when that- Yeah... w- when Scottie Scheffler sinks that putt, go shake his hand. Yeah. And then you go find a private-ish area.
30:51
There's no privacy there. She got out of, she was trying to get out of the camera shot. The, the, it was just all about the camera shot. It was the perfect juxtaposition. It really was. It was the perfect angle, yeah.
30:59
'Cause Emma Navarro was, she had no idea what was happening behind her. She's like, "Oh, thank you, everybody." See, I, this, this is where- That's my, that's my Emma Navarro...
31:06
Jordan Spieth, Jordan Spieth, you could get me back on board if you just acted like, like go beat the crap out of a trash can after, after you act like a class act. Um,
31:14
odds really haven't changed much, US Open men's and women's, by the way. Uh, Aryna Sabalenka is your short shot at plus 320. Coco is four. Wow, Coco is shorter than Iga. What, what are we doing there? Uh, Iga's plus 550.
31:25
I'm surprised Iga's still plus 550. And then Jessie Pegula started the double-digit parade after that at 10 to one. Hasn't really changed much. Again, have Iga seven to one, Iga,
31:35
like she was double parked outside yesterday in her opening round match against Wang Xiyu. Um, can we just talk about this one football thing real quick here?
31:44
Yeah, I got a couple, I got a couple news items I wanna throw at you. I, we gotta start with the Atlanta Falcons. Yes. Do you, do you still, do you realize they are non-committal on starting quarterbacks still? Okay.
31:58
Do we believe that, or is this we- two weeks- That's a-... before the f- w- week one, we're keeping it quiet? Great question. I thought about that myself. Regardless of what the answer to that question is, it is still,
32:13
the, the only thing that you can glean from it is that Tua might have had one of the worst camps and preseasons ever then. Oh, totally.
32:22
I mean, it can- Because, uh, because there is no way he wouldn't be the starting quarterback if he showed anything. Be- uh, Michael Penix, by the way, for those who don't know, Michael Penix Jr.
32:31
was in fact cleared, right? He was in fact cleared- Mm-hmm... uh, recently to return to practice after recovering from his, uh, knee injury in 2025.
32:41
And you know, Tagovailoa at the best had an u- the best way you can characterize it is an up and down camp. That's being generous. Oh, I'm trying to pull up the Rapoport quote from last week.
32:50
But, but, but the whole time we were going through who's gonna start the first week, who's gonna take the first snap, those markets that were at random locations, it was like, like the only way to play this is to start Tua, right?
33:01
Mm-hmm. And then if the veteran messes up, then you can go to Michael Penix Jr. You can't do it the other way, 'cause then if Michael Penix Jr.
33:06
messes up, you might affect his confidence if you take him out of the game, so, or out of the starting lineup. So I'm, I, it's just a pretty amazing situation with Kevin Stefanski.
33:16
By the way, the only other two quarterbacks on their roster, they've kept four, Cooper Rush and Jack Strand on the roster as well. Jack Strand, you ask? I- Yes, uh, Minnesota State Moorhead Dragons.
33:28
It's beyond fascinating. I, I, I mean j- just to, to, I mean, the, the Rapoport quote from, like, last week of basically Tua's play has basically made it impossible [laughs] for them to start him. Yes.
33:43
Yeah, I mean, that, that, that was what he said a week ago. He gave them n- he's given them nothing. That's the only, that's the only thing you can glean from this. So whether Stefanski is doing it purposefully- Right...
33:52
or not is a separate question. It's almost like, it's almost incidental. I, I do think it's that. Yeah. I do think it's two things can be going on at once, right?
34:02
They might be trying to do gamesmanship, and I th- I think if Rapoport's reporting is true, I think there is probably tr- real debate there. And, and maybe look, maybe it do- it is what we thought all along.
34:11
It's Tua starts the season, but maybe that, maybe combined with Penix's health getting better, right? The leash is even shorter now than it was before.
34:20
By the way, they, I, Kalshi still has this up, limited volume, uh, that's been traded here, but it is, it is Tua minus 126 to start week one. [laughs] I mean, that's- Penix plus 105. I mean, flip a coin almost.
34:31
Right, flip a coin. So I, it's not like there's insider information that's out there right now. They're at the Steelers and they're home against the Panthers to start the season.
34:40
You, it's not the hardest hole of it, right? Man, you really don't wanna start O and two, but you could. Well, if you start O and two with those two games, oh boy. Oh boy. Could be a long season.
34:50
I'm just saying, if, if Tua had given them anything, it would've been very easy for Stefanski to just say, "Hey look, you know Penix, I get he's cleared, he's still coming back from injury. Why rush it?
34:59
Tua, we signed Tua for a reason. Everybody kind of knows we, that's the way we were going with this. Here you go." But at this point he's like, "I don't really know." [laughs] That's not good. Not good.
35:10
Do you have any strong feelings on the NFC South in general? Nope. 'Cause this would be, I, I haven't bet it. I think Will has, but I, it would still be Falcons at that long shot price or n- or, or nothing.
35:21
Like I, it is, if they get anything out of the quarterback position. And, and like I, you know, we've, we've rushed to kill these guys. We have seen glimpses of good play out of Tua Tagovailoa over his career. Yes. Yeah.
35:35
And then he got concussed 17 times. Uh, Michael Penix Jr. we're kind of still waiting to see. I don't think we've seen enough at all- No, no... to, to say he's a bust, right? Well, we don't know if he's good either.
35:46
We don't know. So, yeah, you get anything out of that, like I, the skill position's great. I think the defense is, I don't think it's terrible. Four to one, that's who I would be playing, but no bet.
35:55
17 concussions, not a, uh, researched number by Kelly Goodland. [laughs] No, not at all. Jonathan Von Tobel, college football, and more next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
36:05
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
36:20
All right, they've started tennis at the US Open. Last day of the first round Uh, we have one player in action right now. Elena Cornet is a big dog against Maddie Keys. They've just started, uh, with Keys serving.
36:32
So we got some tennis firing up. Deuce. How do, how do tickets work for the US Open? You have to buy by match or is it like sessions? Oh, don't ask me that. Okay. It's sessions.
36:41
I would assume you get more than a match, right? It's, it's sessions. Yeah, it's not match by match. It's sessions. And it is- But we, you were just commenting off air, plenty of seats available right now.
36:48
It is- That's why I was wondering... expensivo. Yeah, that, that, that part I've heard. Do you know how much, do you know how much money the US Open makes? You know how much money they net? Um, $1.7 million a year.
37:03
Are you joking? I have no, I have no idea what to guess a tr- tennis tournament brings in. Uh, no, this specific tennis tournament- Yeah...
37:12
generates roughly this is two weeks- And what, who do they generate money for, themselves? This is two weeks, this is two weeks, two weeks of tennis. They generate roughly between
37:21
560 to $620 million in annual operating revenue. I don't know what all that means though. Like that's just, that's just, is that... That's not just ticket costs, right? So what, I mean it's not just- The whole deal.
37:34
Merch, everything But that's just like tickets, merch, stuff that's done there on location? It's, it's the USTA's- Food...
37:42
uh, primary financial engine, single-handedly accounting for 90% of the USTA's total annual income. And that revenue breakdown is tickets are the most- Is like, is that TV rights?
37:52
Tickets are the most, broadcast rights second- Okay, all right... sponsorships third, corporate hospitality services fourth. I'm actually surprised tickets beats out TV money. Where does the money go?
38:01
Player compensation, infrinstruct- infrastructure renovations, grassroots tennis. They didn't mention charity? You always gotta mention charity. [laughs] Ladies and gentlemen, Jonathan Votobal joins us.
38:12
He is the co-host of Money Moves, which you can find on this network every Monday through Friday, 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific. He co-hosts it with Stormy Bonnetony.
38:22
JVT joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line. You can follow him on Twitter at MeJVT. What's happening, John? How you doing, man? Uh, pretty good. Pretty good. Uh, feeling pretty good.
38:32
Um, I'm hungry I guess, if you guys really care about how I'm feeling right now. Wow. So I'm looking forward to eating some breakfast in a little bit. What are you- But, uh, yeah, feeling good.
38:39
What do you think you're gonna get? Some protein, maybe? Yeah, actually it's boring. I eat the, yeah I eat the same thing every time. I did have a little, I had 170 grams of, um- Wow...
38:47
of Greek yogurt right before I came on here with a little bit of honey mixed in, two pieces of Dave's Killer bread, and then I will now go and make, uh, 12 tablespoons of egg whites with two whole eggs and, uh, slam that down.
38:57
Maybe put a little Parmesan cheese in there. See, he, he, he so wanted me to ask that question for that answer. Yes, he, yes he did. This, this is also where JVT's next level for me. Yeah.
39:04
Because, uh, I, I don't even think I told you this. A couple months ago I was like, "Yeah, all right. I'm gonna buckle down a little bit more here." Egg whites, buying egg whites. Made egg whites- Yep...
39:12
for the first time in like years, or tasted them for the first time. No, right in the trash, never again. N- there's certain things I'm drawing the line at. Kelly- It's egg whites... you as- I kinda dig egg whites...
39:22
you assume that I enjoy the taste. They, like, it is to the point now- Yeah, I can't do that... where I just shovel it- Life's too short, man... like I just shovel it down. I don't even taste it.
39:29
I just, it is fuel for the body. This is a car and that is the gasoline, and that is what, that's all it is, that's all it's there for. Good on you.
39:36
Hey, hey real quick before we get to college football, how's the Vsin Flag Football team coming along? Following up on it. Uh, well our quarterback moved to Montana. I don't know if you heard. [laughs] Oh, that's right.
39:44
Um, and there might be- Yeah... there might be a rift forming in the, in the studio actually. Um, so Fenhouse, one of our behind the scenes guys- Yes...
39:53
I will bring everything out front because if you tell me, then I'm just going to... It's content. Sorry, guys. Um, I guess Fenhouse was offended that he was not invited to the team, which I didn't know he wasn't invited.
40:02
[laughs] He was kind of offended when I- To the point where then- He got offended when I brought donuts for the crew the other day and I was like, "Hey, you want a donut?" He's like, "What does that mean?" Oh, man.
40:09
Well, okay, well d- d- I mean, that sounds like some deep-seated issues for Fenhouse there. Easily offended JVT.
40:13
[laughs] But I would say that I guess Fenhouse was so offended the other day that he then challenged Justin, our producer, to a race up the stairs behind the scenes. Oh my.
40:22
Uh, which then led to Justin beating him in said race and then subsequently sending a challenge to Justin saying, "My flag football team will beat your flag football team." Wow.
40:31
And I woke up to a text message from, about this at like, from like 10:00 at night and I'm like, "Guys, I'm 35 and I'm sleeping. Like, I don't got... Like can you solve these beefs somewhere else?
40:39
We're not gonna have like a flag football civil war [laughs] like in the Vsin studio." It's insane. Uh, also Danny's gone. I, I, I officially resigned. I've resigned from the team. That's it. Yeah. Yeah. Yes.
40:50
Kelly was one of our most ardent members. He was there every time. Yeah. Sad to see. [laughs] Let's get to real, let's get to real football. Uh, what did, what did- It is real football. What did you [laughs]...
41:00
You know Owen, uh, Owen Wright. Yeah. Uh, the little, my little guy, my little nephew. He refused to play flag football as a child. He's like, "It's fake football, Uncle Gil. I'm not playing."
41:08
I was like, "All right, cool." Um, okay. Did you learn anything from week zero? Let's start there. Um, I mean, I think that we learned that like, uh, we'll go through these quick.
41:18
Like Memphis, legitimate like group of six, uh, potential CFP contender if they get through the American.
41:23
I, I kind of figured that UNLV Memphis game was a CFP eliminator of sorts, so I don't think it was surprising to see that people are now kinda catching on to that.
41:31
Um, I think that we learned that North Carolina is a competent defensive team.
41:36
Uh, I, I, and this is why, 'cause I was on North Carolina in that game, Gil, and I think one of the things that I kept bringing up, go back to last year.
41:41
At, UNC found itself in some low scoring one score losses because it was just a good enough defensive team, and I think Belichick still has that fastball when it comes to improving a defensive unit, making them either competent or average or whatever term you want to use.
41:55
And I think that the defense line's pretty good, and I think UNC's gonna be one of those teams. And by the way, Bobby Petrino kind of still have his, has his fastball too. Yeah.
42:01
Like he can coach offense, and I think that this team's gonna be a little bit better than what perception is. I think Virginia's legitimately good, but I do have my questions about the sustainability of that beat down.
42:11
Guys, they threw the ball 11 times. They converted all four of their fourth downs, and they still like put the beat down on UN, or excuse me, on NC State.
42:19
I think they're good, but I still have my questions about Bo Pribyl and some of the games where that running game isn't going as well and he's gotta sit back and throw the ball, I don't know, 12 times instead of 11.
42:28
I think there might be a couple of games there this year that that's gonna happen.
42:31
So I don't think there were any like massive sweeping takeaways, uh, but I do think there's a couple things you can spin forward here for these next couple of weeks.
42:38
But I think UNC maybe being a bet on team for the most part, unless the market really adjusts its perception of that group, I think is one of those I'll carry with me for a while.
42:45
On- only thing that I have a, a slight disagreement on is, is maybe the North Carolina defense.
42:50
Because I do think like Jayden Craig was so inaccurate And missed so many huge plays, I thought, that would have been huge chunks of yardage, and our brain just kind of purges that. But we'll see.
43:02
Time will tell on all this stuff. Uh, you have a quartet of picks here, beginning with a, with a spectacular first half team total under. Explain.
43:12
Yeah, so, uh, NIU making the, uh, the transition over to the Mountain West, so this is where that comes from, right? I've got a, a depth of Mountain West knowledge from writing the guide.
43:20
But I, I think, uh, Northern Illinois's gonna be really, really bad. For those who don't know, in February, their head coach, Thomas Hammock, decided to leave to coach the running backs for the Seattle Seahawks.
43:30
So they have an interim coach right now. Uh, their former defensive coordinator, Rob Harley, is now o- taking over in the interim. There was a mass exodus of guys. Like, all of these dudes are gone.
43:39
And it's funny, you read little blog posts here and there, and you keep seeing these little smatterings of mentions of the time they went out to, uh, Notre Dame and pulled an upset.
43:46
This is not that same team in any way, shape, or form. I think this team's gonna be really, really bad, and I kinda think Harley's set up for failure for the most part.
43:53
It was one of the ways that I kinda set this thing up in the guide.
43:56
The defense is rebuilding, so I think when you go out to take on Iowa on, with a team that is largely built with JUCOs and transfers from, like, the FCS level, like, I think this is gonna be a very, very poor performance for Northern Illinois.
44:09
But instead of maybe getting burned by, like, what San, San Jose State did over the weekend, which is score a bunch of points in garbage time against USC's third-stringers, I'm just gonna go with the first half team total under two and a half.
44:19
I largely expect this Huskies offense to be one of the worst in the Mountain West, and so going out there, giving the full bore effort of the first- and second-stringers against Iowa, I think it's gonna be a pretty rough first half for this group.
44:30
I wouldn't say no to the six and a half for the game, but again, I don't wanna run the risk of garbage time Iowa letting the foot off the gas and give it up, like, some easy points or whatever it is.
44:38
But I do think they're gonna get stifled here. So that's the theory. We're gonna go with Northern Illinois first half team total under two and a half at plus 105. Wow. Love it. Uh, Hawaii loses Stanford.
44:48
Not only do they lose, they don't cover in the end on, uh, on the scoop and score. Yeah. And then your UNLV Rebels lose to Memphis. Hawaii's playing UNLV. What do you have here?
44:59
So I think this is gonna be a theme for me, unless I feel like the market's made a little bit of a change. I think the market's too high on UNLV. They were...
45:05
I, I grabbed six and a half at one point with UNLV against Memphis. They close as, like, four, four and a half, and they ultimately don't get there and lose outright. And then Gil, here we are.
45:13
The original number for this was UNLV minus one and a half. What did you see last week that makes you think, "You know what? This should be actually a key number here on the road against White"? Nada. Nada. It's a- Yeah.
45:23
Right, yeah. Yeah. It's a big rivalry spot for those who don't know. Uh, they play for the Golden Pineapple. I would also say, too, uh, remember, UNLV's starting center got rolled up on, and his ankle hurt.
45:33
As of now, I haven't seen what the MRIs are, but, uh, I don't think he is going to play this week. Their offensive line was abysmal. They couldn't run block. They couldn't pass block.
45:40
I just don't think that anything we saw from last week said, "You know what? We're gonna put up a three here."
45:45
You could hold out, wait for three and a half, but I think taking three is perfectly fine, and I don't think it's gonna get to that three and a half, so give me Hawaii at home.
45:51
Uh, last two, Central Michigan and New Mexico, UCLA, and Cal. Yeah. What do you have on these? Yeah, I'll do it real quick. Central Michigan, I just like the way they run their offense.
45:58
Got, like, some Army principles to it. They run the ball really, really well. I still have my questions about New Mexico, especially on defense. They did not do well in the role of favorites last year.
46:06
You've got a three-headed monster, I guess you wanna call it, at quarterback, because Jack Lane injured his elbow, and he's still not recovered. So you don't know who's gonna play there.
46:12
And then for Cal, I just like this Cal team. I think Jaren Cave Sangopolutele is gonna be the first overall pick when he comes out in the NFL draft.
46:19
I think that they've invested a lot in this team from an NIL perspective, and they're better than what they're given credit for. Give me Cal to win outright as a small dog at home. There it is.
46:27
Jonathan Von Tobel with flag football strife, navigating through that. You're right, our quarterback did leave for Montana. Yeah. And by our, I mean VSiN's quarterback, Danny Higgins. Thank you, Jon. Appreciate it.
46:37
We'll, uh, tune in f- with you and Stormy later today. Yep. Thank you, sir. See you in a little bit, guys. 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific for Money Moves with Stormy Bonatony and Jonathan Von Tobel.
46:48
Uh, still to come, oh, how about some division last place finishes in Major League Baseball? Why don't we take a gander at that? We'll do that next. Numbers game. VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
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