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Sep 1, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 1, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | September 1, 2026 | Hour 3
00:00
46:07
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Transcript
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0:53
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
1:02
Hour number three of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel. Ready for it? 189. Nailed it. Let's go. Let's go, Alexander.
1:14
That's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Um, start out with some tweets before we get to MLB division last place finish odds. Chance Copper Pot.
1:22
And people are not happy with you, Kelly, for a little something you, uh, aired out loud last segment. That's fine. Chance Copper Pot said, "Have you updated your app, Kelly? I do not have American odds on Cal Sheet.
1:31
I don't mind though. I just use a simple converter. I'm always com- uh, comparing expected outcome as a percentage anyway, so America odds, H-merican odds. Adapt, people."
1:40
Hey, another thing I didn't wanna cut off Joe to say. Yeah. VSIN.com, real easy converter to type in those percentages in there, and it gives you your American odds. Well done. Well done. Company man through and through.
1:51
Mariners Geek, "Gil jovially giving monthly MLB wins update like a guy who already took down an 80 to one month. Not sure why." Bobby Gettys. Thank you, Mariners Geek.
2:01
Bobby Gettys, "I had one foot out the door to go on a run, looked down at my phone to see Gil had eight tennis picks. I turned right around to do some line shopping.
2:08
Also, did you mention that girl who lost to Navarro yesterday? I love tennis tantrums." Yes, we did. Louise Boissoneault. Louise Boissoneault, smash it or rag it.
2:17
Buddhist Man, quote, "Cleve, let's get Cleve on this week. Thursday, bang, done," unquote. He sent out the bat signal for Cleve too. 11:00 AM Eastern, he'll be on. There you go. I've already locked it in. Jason McKinney.
2:30
Oh, he's, uh, up- updating Galveston. He says, "There are better beaches than Galveston, but it's only a four-hour drive rather than a seven-hour drive to Florida. I have as many kids as Will does," Will Hill.
2:38
You have 75 kids? "Plus a mother-in-law that travels with us. Since it's a short holiday, it was worth the trade-off, and I get to take my oldest boys to an Astros game and mark off a new ballpark for them.
2:48
Not much of a tropical storm as of yet. Don't mind the gray sand." All right. Nice. John A. Cornell Jr., "The last segment with Joe Peta was great.
2:56
I understand prediction markets better with his explaining of higher s- uh, excuse me, of tighter spreads, reminding me of decimals instead of fractions, and counter, uh, counterparty pricing basically using limit orders.
3:07
Well done and thank you." Big sh- big shout to, uh, Joe Peta. Always great. If we had Joe Peta on talking about any subject, it would be great. Uh, yes. Send Gil off air. It's the, i- anytime he wants to come on.
3:19
I, it's, it's- I just don't wanna bother him... No, it's that. Yeah. It's that. We kinda wait till, uh, we kinda hear from Joe. Willie B.
3:25
Betten, "Uh, we may not know who will be quarterback for my Dirty Birds, but we do know that there's at least one person hoping that it's Tua Tagovailoa. Tua Tagovailoa."
3:33
What he's doing here is acc- I believe he's accusing Tua. Oh, so no, he's, he's, uh, quote tweeting somebody who says, uh, "Tua forgot to switch to his burner account."
3:44
That's the, the, the charge is that Tua is, is tweeting in, in defense of Tua. Patrick Kelly, "Hey, what the hell? I fire up Sirius XM to listen to Rachmaninoff," [laughs]
3:54
"And now I'm hearing, now I'm hearing Gilly Kelly." Oh, man. Uh, "JBT talking egg dos and don'ts, and hell knows. Have a great day, gentlemen. Thank you for the great show as always. Five stars."
4:02
Thank you, Patrick Kelly. Purple Kevin 1111, "JBT's breakfast is quite different than mine. I have 1,020 grams of coffee, 18 grams of coffee mate, 16 grams of sugar, two grams of marijuana." [laughs] Oh, man. Oh, man.
4:16
It's a lot of coffee for me too. Yeah. And then an energy drink too. A pot of coffee and then the energy drink. Not me. I raw dog this show with water. Whoa. The, uh, hey, uh, we didn't talk about it yet. Tupac.
4:27
Finally got him, huh? Finally got him, 'cause he- Finally got him... 'cause he, 'cause he told everybody it was him. Dwayne Davis, guilty for, for, uh, engineering, being the architect of the Tupac murder, where
4:41
allegedly his nephew was the trigger man. So happened in 1996, right? Yes, it did. Finally concluded. Yeah, 30 years later. 30 years later. How many playoff wins in that time did the Cleveland Browns have? Oh, zero? One.
4:55
One. One win. I was thinking about the thing we said yesterday, Venus turning pro at 19- 1994. That's wild. I hadn't even moved to California yet. Like, I mean, just like a different lifetime. Yeah, Dwayne Davis, guilty.
5:08
Yeah, if you lived through the Tupac and Biggie murders, like you have no idea what a big deal that was. Oh, yeah, man. Especially at our age. The- Yeah... also, like, it's one of those Vegas things.
5:16
Like we, me and you have talked about the like, the, the Bru- Tupac and Bruno Mars. The things that, like, you've heard stories about that when you move to Vegas and start talking- Oh...
5:26
people, people live in Vegas are convinced they know exactly what happened. Yeah. I remember getting a call like 3:00 in the morning. "They got Biggie." Bruno Mars at the Hard Rock in the bathroom there. Eh.
5:41
They got him for something there as well. Uh, Buddhist Man, "Welcome to new channel 189, Sirius XM listeners.
5:46
If the first six minutes of the JBT segment doesn't keep you as a listener to a numbers game, then it just wasn't meant to be." [laughs] And finally, Mako, "What's your updated circuit contest entry predictions?"
5:57
Oh, you mean the number, the tally? Have you, do you follow this stuff back here? I need, I, why, why did I ever take my spyglass out of the bag? I don't know They're ahead of, they're ahead of pace on everything 3,700
6:11
and 16,000 for survivors. Is that right? That's right. 3,700 for million, 16,000 for survivors. Does that sound right? What, what's, what's Grandissimo? 38, I think. Okay. Oh, boy. Kelly- Just went to the eye doctor...
6:24
Kelly needs a prescription again, but. My time has, I don't know Yeah, they're ahead of pace on everything. I think we're getting over 25 million in Circus Survivor. I think we're getting over 25 million. I think so too.
6:33
Who knows? It might even soar over that for all we know. Um, but things are looking good with the contest. And, uh, one more episode of the Circus Survivor documentary tomorrow night.
6:43
We'll see if Kelly Bidlin is featured once again. I still haven't seen, uh, episode s- six where apparently you were dominant, you said. Yeah. I believe you said- It was too much Kelly... you ruled over the proceedings.
6:52
It was terrible. Yeah. It misquoted Gil Alexander somehow too. They did? I did. Oh, you did. Told you that already. That's right. That's right. I, I don't even wanna re-watch it. I don't want...
7:00
It's, it was so bad I don't wanna watch it a second time, but- As Gil says, and then Kelly just made up something. I was much better at the end. I was, I actually, I was very good at the end. Okay. We- Very good...
7:09
we were, we were thinking about doing World Series match-ups. Maybe we'll save those for another day. The reason that we, we pivoted is because no one lists them by odds. I didn't have time this morning.
7:18
Kelly didn't have time. I didn't have two hours to go through every combination possible. So now we're gonna do last place finishes by division. Let's look at the AL East. AL East, this is to finish last place.
7:29
I love the fact that Caesars has these out. Have... I was gonna say, uh, the, the, the- Never seen this... upside of me not getting to that- Yeah...
7:35
was stumbling upon this, 'cause I have not seen this market posted by any book ever. Way to go, Eric Biggio. In season la- to finish last- Yeah... in the division. So we got two for the AL and then three for the NL.
7:48
Okay. Um, for the American League East, the Orioles are the favorite to finish last at minus 130. The Jays are plus 125. A tie will pay you 6 to 1.
8:00
Right now the American League East standings have the Orioles at 69 and 69 in fourth place, and the Blue Jays at 68 and 70. But keep in mind, the Blue Jays have the easier schedule down the stretch, right?
8:10
As we talked about with the season wins, or excuse me, the monthly wins September, Blue Jays have the third easiest remaining schedule by aggregate win percentage of opponents.
8:17
Orioles have the ninth hardest remaining schedule, thus the Orioles being favored. I wouldn't bet this. Well, I, actually, I don't know. I mean, like if I- Blue Jays are nothing, right? If... No, no, no.
8:29
Orioles are nothing. Yeah. Okay. 'Cause I think, I think the Blue Jays are gonna soar. Remember, this is for last place. So Orioles are nothing. Right, right, right. Uh, AL West, Angels are the favorite, minus 110.
8:39
The Athletics are plus 150. The tie here is also 6 to 1. Those standings, those standings are- Exactly tied...
8:48
Athletics and Angels both have a 53 and 85 record, and in terms of the, uh, remaining schedule difficulty, Athletics 18th hardest, Angels 23rd hardest. In other words, Angels eighth easiest, Athletics, what's that?
9:05
13th easiest. So the Athletics actually have incrementally a tougher schedule. Interesting that the Angels are the favorite. I don't know. That to me says Athletics are nothing.
9:13
Angels, Angels two and eight in their last 10. A's four and six in their last 10. That seems mispriced, doesn't it?
9:18
Do you know, do you know what, have you looked at these I love checking in on run differentials every once in a while. That's an Athletics plus 150 bet. Yeah. Run differential's majorly bad.
9:26
You know who has the o- the worst? Uh, who is it this year? The A's. The A's. The A's have the worst. Yeah. 198. Minus 198. The A's minus 73.
9:38
Well, whenever I look at run differential I'm always talking about how the Tigers have the third best run differential in the American League, at least as of yesterday they did. Uh, they still do.
9:48
Yeah, it's inc- Third best... it's incredible, and they're not even close to being in the playoffs. It goes Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers. Um, did, why did we skip the, why don't they have the American League Central up?
9:58
I don't know. They just didn't? They just didn't. Okay. Um, American League Central not posted, but that would be a, that would be between the Twins, Tigers, and Royals, but specifically the Tigers and Royals.
10:07
Not sure why they don't have that up. Tigers have a one game lead over the Royals, but the Royals, in essence, would have a one game lead over the Tigers, if you will, for last place.
10:15
So maybe they'll post odds for those. Um, to the National League. National League East. Can I interest you in some National League East, Kelly Bidlin? That you can.
10:23
Uh, National League East is a, the, this i- this is the one that is actually the most... No, Rocky's still, so this is the second biggest margin. The Mets have a four-game lead, if you will,
10:35
lead in quotes, over the Nationals for the worst record. It's actually three games. But it's, uh, 62 and 76 for the Mets, 66 and 74 for the Nationals. The Mets are the minus 325 favorite. Hmm. Uh, I guess.
10:55
I don't really have a conviction there. Yeah, five to one's not, that's not good enough, right? Um, schedule, remaining schedule. Mets have the, Mets have the 10th hardest remaining schedule.
11:07
A little harder than Washington, but not by much. Uh, NL Central. Reds are the minus 200 favorite. In the NL Central, the Reds have a two-game lead, in quotes, over the Pirates. Wow.
11:19
And a three-game lead over the Cardinals. What a, it's amazing how bad it's gone for the Buccos in the second half of this season.
11:26
But the Reds with the two-game lead, and the reason that the Reds are minus 200, they have the hardest remaining schedule in the re- in, for the remainder, for the balance of the season.
11:35
Reds aggregate win percentage of opponents, 579 in the remaining 24 games. So to me that's Reds or nothing. And then the Rockies have the biggest lead of anybody. They have a five-game lead over the Giants.
11:46
By the way, shout out Adam Burke who hit the Giants as a big dog against the Braves yesterday on this show. The Burkester. The Burke Meister. Bringin' it home. But the Rockies are minus 1600.
11:57
That's, uh, that's aggressive. You know what? But the reason is 'cause the Giants have the seventh hardest remaining schedule. Slightly easier than the, slightly harder than the middling Rockies' remaining schedule.
12:09
So of all those, the one I like the best is the Athletics at plus 150 Here's my one good point from this Thank you, Kelly W- my one good point. Mm-hmm. You, you, you had a couple good points, guys. Thank you so much.
12:18
If you like the Giants here, just bet 'em to have the worst record in baseball at much longer odds. What's the odds on that? 75 to one. 75 to one? Yeah, 'cause you gotta beat out the Rockies anyways. Right.
12:31
But then in that one, you'd also have to beat out the Athletics and the Angels. Yeah, but there, there's some room there, right? Double games. But 75 to one is, is your point? Okay. I get it. Just pour a sprinkle at it.
12:40
I understand what you're saying. All right. Coming back on The Numbers Game, let's talk to Paul Spore next. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
12:49
But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
13:00
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13:08
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:23
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Hey-o. You can follow Kelly on Twitter at kbidlon. I'm at beatingthebook.
13:34
Uh, again, for those who missed it, I guess if you're listening on Sirius you know this, but elsewhere, uh, we are on Sirius XM channel 189 as of this morning, and, uh, folks are chiming in with everything.
13:46
Mike Recchia, "Renewed my subscription to Sirius XM today, and now I can listen to Gil and WFAN in one place." There you go. And then he's shouting at other people, trying to get them to get aboard. All right. Cool.
13:57
Appreciate that, Mike. Uh, thanks for, uh, for finding us at Sirius XM channel 189. Sorry to all the Rachmaninoff fans out there- Yes, we apologize... for our presence.
14:08
Paul Poore is now gonna check all of our work from previous segments. He joined us cour- he joins us, rather, courtesy of the progressive, progressive guest line.
14:14
At Spore is where you can follow him on Twitter, S-P-O-R-E-R. Mm-hmm. He's the host of the Sleeper and the Bust podcast, does all of his stuff over at FanGraphs.
14:21
Well, not all of his stuff, because he's also, I always want to point out, the content designer for Out of the Park Baseball. Paul joins us now from Austin, Texas. What's happening, Paulie? Not too much.
14:31
How you guys doing? Doing very well. Uh, real quick, couple things. We just went over, uh, last place finish odds in Major League Baseball. Uh, you may be able to see the National League- Ooh...
14:42
numbers on the screen next to you. Yeah, I can see them there. Those are all pretty prohibitive favorites. I'm not sure I- Right... necessarily gravitate towards those, but if we can flash the AL ones up for him, guys.
14:51
Uh, aren't the Athletics at plus 150 the correct bet in the AL West? Why are they dogs to the Angels? That, that, that's what I'm saying. [laughs] Like, that seems...
15:01
Boy, whenever we think it's, like, too obvious, then maybe it is, but I, I, I, I'm gonna stick with it. Yeah, they're terrible.
15:07
They've lost everybody worthwhile on that team sans Laurens Butler, and he can't do it alone. He really only does it at home, and even there they don't always win because their pitching is horrible. I, I'm with you.
15:20
I, I think that's an easy, that's an easy plus. I like it. The, there, the Angels have a modicum of competence that they've been showing, and they have a true ace in Reid Detmers. Uh, and A- Athletics don't have that.
15:31
It's not exactly, like, a small dog either, right? No. It's not like we're talking about plus 115 or something. [laughs] It's crazy to be a great bet to have the rest of the year. Yeah. Plus 150 on the Athletics.
15:40
Uh, okay, then there's the subject of September monthly wins. I had the Tigers in August. That did not go well, Paul. Um, not well at all. [sighs] Uh, we had Joe Sheehan on earlier. Full blown.
15:49
He's going with the Tigers, your Tigers, in September. He's also going with the Mariners. I went with two teams, though, as well. First time ever, I went with two. I went with the Red Sox at 28 to one.
15:59
Obviously, Roman Anthony- Nice... and Trevor Story back. Garrett Crochet coming back in the bullpen, which I wanna get your thoughts on. And the other one I went with is the Blue Jays, who are now down to 10 to one.
16:07
I got 'em at, uh, I got 'em at plus, uh, 23, 25, so o- over- Nice... 23 to one.
16:14
Blue Jays, I, I didn't really mention this, go, it's the same sort of concept as the Red Sox with the, with the back end of the bullpen, but the Blue Jays sneaky good with, uh, with, uh, Louie Varland and- Mm-hmm...
16:26
with Tyler Rogers. Do you sort of agree generally with both of those teams, Toronto and Boston? Yeah.
16:34
The, the Red Sox would be my top pick there, and I definitely see the, the vision with the, uh, with the Jays there, especially if their starters, you know, they got C, so, uh, bonafide ace.
16:44
But if their starters behind him can give five quality and just get it to the bullpen, 'cause you mentioned the two at the back end, Varland and Rogers, but don't sleep on, like, a Spencer Miles, Mason Fluharty, like some guys in the bridge there that are pretty good as well.
16:56
And of course, what if, I don't know, Vlad Jr. played, like, 50% of himself- [laughs]... instead of, like, 10% of himself? That's right. So there's always that sort of, uh, underlying potential with the offense as well.
17:07
So I like the Jays there too, but the Red Sox definitely my favorite in that group. Okay.
17:11
What of the, the, for those who are thinking about betting the Red Sox, even if they're not betting them for September, but for, for deeper futures- Mm-hmm...
17:18
to, uh, I don't know about winning the division, but let's say to win the pennant, if not the World Series.
17:23
The Red Sox plan, as I mentioned earlier on the show, and I think I mentioned this yesterday, for Garrett Crochet is, "Okay, he's coming back.
17:30
We're gonna try to bring him back a little before the playoffs, but not as a starter. We're gonna put him in the bullpen." So that's a bullpen that already has Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman at the back end.
17:40
[laughs] So we're talking, like, 2015 Kansas City Royals vibes at this point, aren't we? No, this is absolutely nasty.
17:47
I mentioned Eric Miller there in passing, who they got from Marcelo Mayers, which was a stunner of a trade, you know, given the prospect status that Mayers had. But not really as necessarily a diss to Miller.
17:56
Um, he's been a great middle reliever this year, uh, you know, kind of setting up at the back end. And he had a huge walk issue that he's really tamped down. It kind of started right before the trade.
18:06
He had a 16% walk rate with San Francisco. But his last month with them was pretty good, and now it's down to 7% with Boston. So Eric Miller's another piece there. That's three massive lefties.
18:17
So any lefties that they're gonna face in the American League are in deep, deep trouble. And of course, you got Whitlock for the right-handers there.
18:24
I really like that setup there because they've got their three playoff guys. You go Gray, Suarez, Tolley for your three playoff pitchers. That means you don't have to force Crochet back in there.
18:34
If this was a team like the Jays that really only has Cs that you trust, I think they'd be forcing Crochet back into the rotation a bit more.
18:40
But it's a bit of a luxury that Boston has here that they can put him in there, let him be a multi-inning guy. Imagine him coming out, too, if anybody has a tough start. [laughs] Man.
18:49
You know, let's say Tolley gets a little overamped and he, he's out after four. You can go two, three innings with, with Crochet, and you're not crushing the bullpen at that point, too. He can be a multi-inning guy.
18:59
This could be massive for them. We've seen these stoppers. I feel like stoppers are really the key to success, not even necessarily closers, but those middle guys that are really gonna come in and put out the fires.
19:09
If Crochet's that guy for them, you know I've liked this Boston team all year. Much, you know, m- the early part of the year I was kind of, uh, hiding from it because it was such a bad pick.
19:18
But now, the way things are positioned, I like them even more. I love, I love the crosh- Crochet deployment. You and I are aligned. Uh, obviously, uh, people know how I feel about the Red Sox. I am...
19:28
I have talked myself into some futures plays. I don't know how I'm gonna play them. Maybe win the pennant, maybe with a matchup with an NL team.
19:34
But that- Story and Anthony back, too Oh, and- Like, that's two real pieces... and in two days. Like, their first two games they have made an impact immediately- Yep... on that offense. And if they stay healthy, right?
19:44
The- and they gotta stay healthy. Both of them have had, obviously Story throughout his entire career. Anthony's a young guy, but he's had a lot of injury issues. They gotta stay healthy.
19:51
But if they do, that lineup is now super deep. And they did it without them, right? So even if they did lose one or both of them again, it's not like that's the end of the Story. But the fact... Uh, no pun intended.
20:01
But you're adding those two guys there. Again, it's just I, I hate gushing over them too much because, you know, you get too excited about a team and they, they fail you.
20:08
And they'll still have- But this Red Sox team is- Yeah. And they'll still have to play a best of three, which is always the kryptonite. Exactly. Right? Yep.
20:14
Um, what's the, what's an equivalent NL team that excites you heading into the postseason?
20:20
That's a really good question because while everything is, like, so set and, and it feels like, you know, there's not a whole lot of movement there, I still look at these teams and, you know, I'm kind of bought in on this notion.
20:30
And I, I think I mentioned this to you last week or the week before, that, uh, a, a YouTube creator called Foolish Bailey, uh, did a piece on why the Brewers don't succeed in the playoffs with their hitting. Oh.
20:40
And I found it compelling. Interesting. Basically, they wear down... Pardon me? No, I was saying interesting. I'm, I'm- Yeah.
20:45
They wear down bad pitching, but they're not that good against good pitching, and that's why Milwaukee doesn't really work there.
20:50
So as much as I wanna get excited about them for another amazing regular season, I have some pause.
20:56
This Philly team is the one that I would probably give the best Boston comps to, right down to the fact that, you know, they've got some really compelling pitching.
21:03
I think they have a, a deep enough bullpen to get to the eighth inning run constantly.
21:07
Uh, the offense, while it hasn't been great all year, and in fact they've kind of languished in the wOBA rankings, weighted on-base average, they're moving up finally because they have superstars on this team.
21:17
We, we know their superstars, Schwarber, Harper, Turner at the top there. Arraez has been a great pickup. But they also run deep with guys like Stott, Marsh, Realmuto at the back end there.
21:26
Justin Crawford as a nine hitter, very competent. So I like this Phillies team. I think they have the playoff starters that you need. Obviously, Sanchez, Wheeler is as good of a one-two as you can get.
21:35
But don't sleep on Luzardo. He's basically a co-ace there with, with, uh, you know, a trio of aces. And that's to say nothing of Nola, who's been pitching well.
21:43
I've, I've been very skeptical on Nola all year, but he is pitching legitimately well down the stretch here. And if he shows up for somebody that they can turn to in the playoffs, watch out for Philly, too.
21:52
I'm glad you brought up Arraez because, uh, Joe Pete and I were texting about this yesterday. He has made, and I knew it as a Giants fan, right, he was really good this year for the Giants. Yep.
22:02
He's just a professional hitter, right? He's a throwback. Yes. He has made such a difference in this Phillies lineup. It's just incredible how he has fit into this.
22:09
Uh, my last question here is of all the good teams in baseball, the one I feel like- Mm-hmm...
22:15
and this might be a me problem, so I don't wanna, like, project this on anybody else, but the one team that certainly on this show we have talked the l- this, the least about would be the Atlanta Braves.
22:25
We talk about all the- I was gonna say that's what it was gonna be. Yeah. We, we talk about all the other teams, but for some reason we neglect them. Why do we neglect them, and should we neglect them?
22:32
[sighs] I don't think we should, okay? So I, I, I will cop to the fact that when they gave up the lead there and Philly got really close, I was like, "I knew it. They're, they're fake. They're fraudulent.
22:42
They're paper tigers," because I've been surprised and impressed by them all year. I need to give them more due and start to be more impressed than surprised by Atlanta.
22:50
When they lost all the pitching that they did early in the year, I didn't really think they had much of a shot to do anything, let alone win the division and basically lead it guardrail to guardrail right now.
22:59
But they are really good. And they do have... You know, I keep mentioning the teams with a bonafide ace. I love when you got that ace you can turn to. Sale is, of course, that.
23:07
The problem I have once we turn to October, though, Gil, is the rest of the group. Yeah. They've been pitching well. Big shouts to Martín Pérez and what he's done this year.
23:15
You talk about a professional hitter with Luis Arraez, Martín Pérez's a professional pitcher. Gonna give you five strong very often. Not every time out, but very often.
23:23
The Tyler Mahle pickup has been excellent, and that's been a huge surprise for me. Me too. When they got him I thought little of it. I thought he'd munch up some innings and that's about it.
23:31
He's been legitimately awesome. So if those two, Pérez and Ma- Mahle, behind Sale can actually be something, I'll have a little bit more confidence in them.
23:41
Their X factor for me as, as far as, like, a stopper is Didier Fuentes, the young rookie coming out of the bullpen. So I've been skeptical on them. I like Philly more, but I gotta give Atlanta their due.
23:51
They're legit, and that lineup goes one to nine. Paul, I really appreciate it. You get my baseball juices flowing, man. M- makes me wanna go out there and bet some stuff. I really appreciate it. Thank you.
23:59
One more month. One more month. Until the playoffs. Take care, y'all. You too. Paul Sporer. And not even a month, right? Four weeks. Yeah. So close the season well before the month actually closes. We'll come back.
24:10
Some NFL season-long props next on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Football is back, and VSiN Pro gives you everything you need to bet smarter this season.
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24:56
That's $9.99. Or save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Uh, we are, uh, right now in a gut check, for those who are following the tennis.
25:11
We got one play in action. It is our plus 225 dog, Elena Cornea. Mm. She was down to Maddie Keys three-love. Oh, yeah. Got that one. Then she was, she fought back to three-three.
25:22
Then she was down five-three, another break. Fought back to five-five, and now she, uh, she, uh, she just staved off two set points for Keys.
25:31
It is 6-5 Keys, but we're at deuce, so Cornea trying to force a breaker here to decide the first set. How do you feel about a little fist pump after forcing deuce? Oh, I, I- We, we okay to do it then?
25:43
Uh, absolutely we are. Okay. Absolutely. You gotta be positive out there, Kelly Bidlin. Gotta be positive. Come on, Cornea. Especially in a massive first set against a Madison Keys. That's right. Uh- Ooh.
25:54
Keys, Keys just rifled a backhand- Ooh... by her, though. Anyway, here all the- Good shot... let's recap all the bets. Here are the eight tennis plays, including that Cornea one, which is third to last.
26:02
Uh, she's plus 225 versus Maddie Keys, but it is another set point here for Keys. Cornea, though, showing moxie, and that is why we played her, is a plus 225 dog.
26:11
Her hard court numbers do not in any way equate with that kind of a dog price. We'll see if she can gut this out at all. Uh, on the men's side today, these start a little later today. I guess it's raining in New York.
26:22
Is this what's happening? Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's why we only have a couple matches. It's very, very overcast, and they showed some rain earlier. Yeah.
26:28
Uh, Arthur, Arthur Geya is, uh, the first men's play, minus 121 versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Then Gael Monfils, which will be a night match at the US Open. It'll be a raucous crowd for Gael Monfils.
26:39
A slight dog to Daniel, uh, Adolfo Vallejo. Then six plays on the ladies' side. Gabriela Knutson plus 151 versus Ava Lisa, who is not playing good tennis right now. Magdalena Frech is the biggest dog of the day.
26:51
She's plus 269 versus Iva Jovic. Tatiana Maria plus 142 versus Jelena Ostapenko. Our girl Cornea, who just lost the first set, uh, plus 225 versus Maddie Keys.
27:02
Maria Sakkari later is the biggest favorite on the board for us today, minus 145 versus Robin Montgomery. And Daria Vidmanova minus 105 versus Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. So eight tennis plays.
27:13
Uh, we'll see if Cornea can't bounce back here against Vidman- It got faked out. Sorry. I, I kinda celebrated over here. I thought Madison Keys hit it into the net- Oh, no... but it was, it was after it went long. Yeah.
27:23
Yep. That's tennis. [sighs] That's tennis. Eight pack of plays, so that'll... I, I would say this'll, this'll take you through the whole day of, of, uh, you know- Right, yeah...
27:32
your existence with lots of tennis matches, but with the rain, I'm not sure how many of these get played now. Mm-hmm. So we'll see. Hey, upside, you might get a little, uh, extra bonus tennis bets, uh, tomorrow.
27:41
That's right. We could have double digits worth of tennis bets tomorrow if the rain persists in New York. Have you ever been to the N- to the U- US Open, ever? No. It's, uh- 'Cause it's the greatest thing ever...
27:50
definitely on my bucket list. Gotta go to Indian Wells, gotta go to a US Open. I, I think you and I have had this conversation before. I don't know, I can't remember on-air or off-air.
27:58
Uh, th- I would say three of the four Grand Slams are on my bucket list. Not the Australian Open. But, like, not the Australian, yeah. Yeah, I don't think, I'm not really Aus- Love you, Australia.
28:05
Sorry, I love you, Australia. Thanks for listening to the show. Mm-hmm. For real, 'cause we have, we have listeners. But yeah, probably- Just makes-... probably the one... more sense to get to the other three.
28:14
Well, the Rams and the Niners- I got a brother-in-law who's Australian, though. Who knows? Ram- Maybe I get invited for Christmas or something sometime...
28:19
Rams and Niners can tell you about their travel, uh, arrangements. We gotta reair part of that segment, or I'll retweet that segment about Rams and Niners travel.
28:28
We go through the whole history of teams that have traveled early to games in Europe versus teams that have traveled late, what their, what the straight up and against the spread numbers have been. I get it.
28:39
This isn't Europe, but I, I threw out the Brazil and, and, uh, Mexico games. Didn't want it to be in this hemisphere. But when you're doing time zone long distance travel, how teams,
28:51
in this case, with the Rams and the Niners, they have really historically entrenched themselves in their philosophy, and their philosophy is Niners travel early, Rams travel extremely late.
29:02
The Rams power through it like they're not even traveling. They're like, "We're not even gonna adjust to the time zone. We are just gonna get back to LA and act like it was just a dream."
29:13
Niners completely acclimate themselves to the time zone, and so they're going to, they're gonna be on Melbourne time, uh, whereas the Rams are just gonna show up when the game starts. Should be interesting.
29:24
Yeah, should be. Uh, highest scoring team, speaking of the Rams. Mm-hmm. Highest scoring team in the National Football League regular season this year. The Rams are the short shot, but not by much.
29:34
Plus 550 for the Los Angeles Rams, followed closely in succession by the Bills at six to one, the Lions at plus 650, the Cowboys at plus 750, and the Bengals at nine to one. Also, the Bears and Ravens at nine to one.
29:50
Well, you know where I'm going with this, right? Yeah, that's kinda why I put it in there. You and I both kinda have Bears related bets. Just to recap last season- Yeah... this is kinda interesting.
30:00
Rams were your highest scoring team last se- last season in total points, 518 total points. New England Patriots second, 490. This surprises me a little bit. Seattle Seahawks were third.
30:13
Everybody's sleeping on the Seahawks. They were third. I don't know if you guys know this, but they won the Super Bowl. I mean, fa- they were very good, but man, hey They were third, 483. Bills 481, tied with the Lions.
30:27
So those, that's your top five And the Lions finished in last place in their division. Mm-hmm. Highest, uh, point differential of any last place team, I think for two decades, if I'm not mistaken. So
30:41
for, for- I would, I wanted to go through that real quick, Gil, just 'cause I don't know about you, but I think there's a lot of people that would look at this, including myself- Yeah...
30:48
and go, "Okay, Cowboys, Bengals, Bears." Cowboys, Bengals, Bears is ex- well, I'd go Lions, Cowboys, Bengals, Bears. But yes, Cowboys, Bengals, Bears specifically.
30:56
Because we think of these teams as high-powered offenses- Mm-hmm... with bad defenses, which is just gonna give your offense even more time on the field. Cowboys defense should be a little improved this year.
31:07
Bengals- Bengals too... Bengals a l- Bengals as well. Bears not. Right. Right? Again, with all my Caleb Williams most passing yards in a season bet pointing out, FTN did a great job.
31:18
FTN, Aaron Schatz's FTN almanac did a great job of this. The Bears have just gotten the absolute best of it defensively for the last, not the last year, the last two years when it comes to fumble luck.
31:30
I think it was 10 of 14 fumbles they recovered last year. And the other thing that, you know, people can understand
31:37
turnover regression, but you might not understand first and second down defense versus third and fourth down defense. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. They were the proverbial, "We suck on first and second down.
31:45
We buck up on third and fourth down." It is far more predictive what you do- Yeah... on first and second down.
31:50
So the Bears, and then there's like the, the highest percentage of opposing offensive drives that ended in a turnover belong to the Bears defense. It's just not sustainable.
32:01
And then you have a coach in Ben Johnson who says, "Oh, we're trying to score the most points in the history of the NFL." Mm-hmm. And Caleb Williams, who ended up with 3,900 plus yards last year,
32:11
trying to get over the 4,000-yard hump. That's a big deal to that franchise. They have never, in the Chicago Bears history, they have never had a quarterback throw over 4,000 yards.
32:20
I know that sounds trivial, but to that franchise that's actually a thing. All of that in the mix, I like the Bears at nine to one, though if you told me, "Hey, I'm betting the Cowboys. Oh, guess what?
32:30
I'm betting Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase-" Yeah... I wouldn't scoff at you either. That's exactly where I would go. I mean, look, the Rams, Rams are absolutely deserved favorites. You rarely hear me say this.
32:44
The Buffalo Bills, I would... Uh, there are a lot of teams I would bet on this graphic before I would bet the Bills.
32:50
I, I, I think the, well, I think we're just gonna see this Buffalo team continue to turn into more of a run the ball, control the pace of the game. We've saw a lot of that last year, uh, out of them.
33:02
It's just what depends with them, I guess, is their defense. Major changes on the defensive side of the ball. If it's a disaster, Josh Allen might be forced, uh, to kinda get this offense u- up and running.
33:12
But man, I would still go, I would, I would go Cowboys, Bengals, Bears before I got to the Bills. I would go Lions before I got to the Bills. I think I'd go Ravens before I got to the Bills.
33:21
Also by instinct to say, "Hey, if something happens to Josh Allen, then it's all out the window for the Bills," you could actually apply that to all these teams, right? Stafford for the Rams. Uh, totally, yeah.
33:30
Um, Goff for the Lions. I know there's a lot of people who don't think Jared Goff is good, but actually with no pressure, he is. Dak with the Cowboys, Burrow with the Bengals, Caleb with the Bears.
33:39
It, it all applies to all those teams. If I said you must take a shot, a double-digit shot, who would it be? Seahawks? Ooh. It w- it would be for me. Ooh. I don't know.
33:48
Let me put- If you are forcing me to take a double digit- I think, I think I'm going further down the board than that. 40, I mean, look, if you have any belief in the 49ers, you're probably high on their offense.
33:57
I just don't know how with all the injuries and everything right now you could be. I s- I cannot get that Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel training camp footage outta my mind, how slow they were. Yeah, I know.
34:08
I also like, I don't know, but you- It's like, "I'm gonna cut. Watch this. I'm gonna do a down and out. Watch this cut. Oh, there goes my cut." I mean, the Patriots finished top five last year. They're 30 to one.
34:18
You add A.J. Brown, I know the schedule gets tougher this year. That's an interesting long shot. The Colts, the Colts finished, what was their sixth? Sixth, I think. No, no, no, eighth in total points last year.
34:33
We, we quickly forgot how amazing they were at the beginning of the season last year when- Tremendous start that season... it, it, just incredible start. Everything was healthy. Were they eight, what were they?
34:40
Eight and two, I believe were they? Something like that. I think it was, yeah, something like that. Yeah. Something like that. Like, okay, that's how good they were last year. They are very, they are way down this board.
34:49
40 to one? Like it, I think there's some teams you could make a case for. I mean, if the Commanders stay in games, they're scoring points. [laughs] I laugh as a Commanders fan. [laughs] That's my reaction to that.
35:03
Laremy Tunsil injury's so tough. Yeah. Just, just hurts so much. We'll recap all the bets next on A Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network.
35:10
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
35:27
Back on A Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, Downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidlin on this Tuesday morning. Uh, still to come, uh, this week, Cleve TA added to the show on Thursday. Boom.
35:38
Zach Crack Cleve. Friday- Heck of a show Thursday... The Leak and Fezzik, as per uzhe. Uh, we got Tweets Weened the book.
35:46
[laughs] Chan- Chance Copperpot adds, "Kelly, about your calcy, you must have an outdated version of the app." Y'all gotta stop talking about this out loud 'cause it's gonna disappear entirely. Talking about the US odds.
35:57
Well, couldn't use it in Tennessee either, so who knows? Maybe it's just me. Pat Monteforte or Monteforte, "I can listen to Joe Peeta all day. Thank you for a great segment, Joe." Absolutely, Pat. He's awesome.
36:07
Danny Higgins has chimed in on the Twitter. Who? Danny Higgins, producer number 10. Danny. Danny says, "Great show as always, fellas. One, surprise, surprise, Kelly has the Bills number one in the AFC."
36:20
[laughs] He's already taking shots at you. [laughs] Two- Oh... no mention of North Dakota State domination from JBT Three, Fenhouse waits till I leave to challenge me to a flag football game. Interesting.
36:32
And four, Otis is loving the show. Otis is his dog. Right. Why is Danny dunking on us? Like, he's- I don't know... the last one is the biggest dunk. [laughs] Da- Danny, we love you. Have a great time.
36:42
Girl, office, dog, house. That's right. What a level up. He's a hu- he's a human adult. Crazy. Spence at Spence CC, "Thank you Gil for bringing up the Braves.
36:51
Everyone should totally be talking about them more in my opinion." Yeah, I raise my hand. I, I'm guilty of it. That was a good call. Nobody ever talks about them on this show. Don't ever talk about them.
36:59
We never talk about the Braves. Who's your Bear 85? Bears, that's the tweet. Division NFC Super Bowl, Caleb MVP. He also adds some- Love it... he also adds the Bears have a starter cal- uh, oh, he's a real Bears guy.
37:10
He said, "Bears have a starter caliber backup. He's better than Gino and Cam Ward." Are you talking about, uh, secret Baigent man or about Case Keenum? Probably secret Baigent man. Yeah, good question.
37:20
I think, I, I think, uh, Baigent, yes. Ti- Tyson Baigent. Yeah. But, uh- Case Keenum is- Was he, was he on a squad last year? I don't remember him.
37:28
Dude, Case Keenum, the peak of Case Keenum's career was the Minnesota- the Minneapolis miracle year, 2017. Yep. Like, we're in 2026, we're still talking about Case Keenum. Good for, good for him.
37:42
I, I, he surprised me this preseason. Good for him. I don't, I don't remember him. Oh, that's everybody's reaction to Case Keenum this off- this preseason was, Case Keenum's on a roster?
37:49
Okay, so he must not have been last year. Let, let me check that out. And then Uncle Bush headed to the US Open for the second year running Friday night, Arthur Ashe Stadium based on Your Grace's recommendation.
37:58
Last year saw Novak versus Nori, hoping Carlitos falls our way this year. Uncle Bush, have a great time, man. What an event. Again, the tennis plays. We'll go through all the picks now.
38:07
I know I just gave the tennis plays. Two on the men's side, Arthur Geya and, uh, Gael Monfils. Geya versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Monfils is a slight dog against Daniel Adolfo Vallejo. Monfils is a night match.
38:18
Six on the ladies' side, Knudsen plus 151 versus Evalise. Magdalena Frech plus 269 versus Ibajovic. Tatjana Maria plus 142 versus the Hamburger, Jelena Ostapenko.
38:30
Alina Korneva's going right now plus 225 versus Madi Keys. They're on serve early in the second set. She's down a set. Tough first set, uh, 7.5.
38:37
Maria Sakkari later r- uh, versus Robin Montgomery is our biggest favorite at minus 145. I think she's out of range as the last price I saw was minus 160. Don't play that higher than minus 150.
38:47
And then Daria Vidmanova minus 105 versus Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. There's rain in New York, so I'm not sure how many of those get played. Also, for the month of September in baseball, most wins. September begins today.
38:59
This just in. That's right. Today is Tuesday. It is the 1st of September. There are 31 days in August. So that has ended, and we begin September now. How many days in September, Kelly? Oh, boy. Th- 30. Correct.
39:11
How many in October? 31. There you go with the- Halloween... s- That one helps. That one's easier. Quick, November? 30. Okay. Kelly lear- by the way, it was not a joke. Kelly learned this last week, the knuckle trick.
39:24
I feel like I mainly knew. Yeah. But y- the knuckle trick's good. Thank you. I did learn that last week. Thank you very much. Uh- I never got that rhyme. But, you know, where, 30 days, na na na, April, June and November.
39:36
[laughs] You never, like, heard that crap? I don't know. It's, I can't do it. Obviously I don't know it. That sounded like a Luke song from Miami. Ah, ah, get it, get it.
39:43
[laughs] Uh, Red Sox 28 to one, most wins in September. Blue Jays plus 23, 25 most wins in September. Yes, I bet two teams for the first time. Uh, and then, oh, Keys just broke her. Come on.
39:54
Caleb Williams passing yards leader for the m- for the year, 20 to one. Nick Benito, defensive player of the year, 14 to one. Those are, uh, the football season longs. You, sir.
40:03
Case Keenum was allegedly on the Bears last year. He hasn't played in a game since 2023 though. Would you like to guess career earnings for Case Keenum? Oh, career earnings? Yeah. He's been in the league forever.
40:16
He has been. Uh, $40 million. What a good guess. Usually, usually I throw these at you when- Yeah... I think it's a surprising amount. Yeah.
40:23
This is actually, like, pretty, like, pretty close to I would, what I would've guessed too, 57 million. Wow. So more than you guessed, but- Yeah... nothing crazy. Wow. Uh, I'm tailing you guys on Monfils. Thank you.
40:35
You and Zachary Cohen. Good for you. I got that one in, uh, so far. We'll see what else I land on later today. And then NFL did add another one yesterday, week one bets. Let's go. Jags, Jets, six-point teaser.
40:46
Jags, Texans, six-point teaser. Buccaneers, Bengals, under 51 and a half, and then the Broncos, give me three Monday night against the Chiefs. I'll give you three. LA minus 120. Okay. That's getting away.
40:59
That is mainly two and a half's out there now. JVT had a quartet of college football plays. Northern Illinois, first half team total under two and a half. I love that. That's amazing. Plus 105 at Iowa this week.
41:12
Yeah, you wanna be in the Mountain West Northern Illinois? You're out of the, uh, out of the MAC, and you get to play some real teams in other conferences.
41:19
It, it might be too early in the week, but don't, don't you think you could find a prop for there be a, to be a shutout in the first half? Probably. Shop around. Yeah. What's the best market, directionally speaking.
41:29
Mm-hmm. Uh, he is fading his own UNLV Rebels with Hawaii plus three, and then he's taking Central Michigan plus 10 and a half Chippewas, and then Cal Moneyline versus UCLA from JVT.
41:42
Uh, Joe Sheehan, two September most wins bets from him. We do not align. He's on the Mariners plus 550. Mariners do have the, uh, easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball.
41:52
He's got the Tigers in September at 40 to one, and then today in Major League Baseball he's got the Nationals first five Moneyline plus 120, and the Dodgers team total over four and a half at minus 118.
42:04
Shout out to Joe Sheehan for being on the show today. Always good stuff from Joe. All right, so you, uh, you have not signed up for the contest. Nope. You're going to. What, how many entries are you gonna have for each?
42:13
One- Three Survivor, one Millions. I will get to it sometime this week. Three Survivor, one Millions, no Grandi Simo for Kelly Bidlin. I'm gonna skip it this year. Yeah. Well... You know, last year was so-so.
42:24
So I'm, I'm gonna skip it, take, take a year off. Yeah. We just had Randy McKay. [laughs] We did just have Randy McKay, yeah. Sort of show up in studio. Uh, Randy McKay is going to be in Grandi Simo? Uh, yes Yes.
42:36
He was in it last year. Said he was about to walk up to the counter and drop 115K. Yeah. Were we supposed to talk about that? I don't know. Maybe It's sign up week. Actually, does anybody work anymore?
42:46
It was contest sign up weekend. Yeah. There a whole lot of people here signing up for contests still at 9:52 in the morning on a Tuesday.
42:55
Do you, do you feel with all, well, you know, it, it's been going on for some years, but do you feel like with folks having tons of entries, right?
43:03
You know those groups now that have tons of entries, all these poker players had, like, oh, triple digit worth of entries in Survivor.
43:08
Does it diminish your excitement at all in it knowing that, or is it like, "It doesn't matter. I'm still doing what I'm doing. The chips will fall where they may?" It's a good question. Um-
43:19
Because I think for me it's the latter... yeah, it's mainly still like, is it affecting me? Like, is it affecting me to a point where I'm not gonna play in it? No. That's what I mean. No- Clearly not...
43:28
but, like, it's a thing to be aware of. Sure. You know what I mean? That's why I bring it up. It's an interesting question. I, I'm w- I'm, I'm wondering how much it is affecting people.
43:36
I wonder how many people who were going to play are like, "Yeah, I heard that. I'm not doing it anymore." Prob- based on the numbers, probably not many.
43:43
I mean, look, I think I kinda made this decision last year that I was gonna stick to, like, three Survivors, and I don't think I'm gonna go much more than that i- in, in, uh, you know, in f- in future years.
43:52
But yeah, that might be enough to, like, make me wanna dial it back a little bit. Hmm. Okay. Any other contests around town or just the two Circa? No, I'm just gonna do the two Circa ones. Yeah.
44:02
I used to do Last Man Standing, but as I've, I've said many times, one year I just plumb forgot. Mm-hmm. Put in a hun- Not that they do a great job with that... put in 100 bucks and just forgot about it.
44:10
They do a gr- It, it's a great contest, too. But you, you gotta get over there in person each week, right? You have to go over to a Stations Casino in person. Which I don't, I mean, like, honestly, I'm pr- Yeah...
44:17
I'm in, I'm probably in a Stations Casino every week, but that part of it's tough. Yeah. The fact that you can just do it on the app on Circa's great. We do have a lot of people that, they come in town.
44:26
They were hanging out out of the studio after the show talking about they, they're going over to the Westgate to participate in some of their contests as well.
44:34
Yeah, Caesars' running things now, but it's still C- they're still doing the Super contests, right? Westgate as powered by Caesars. Yeah. And we have the Average Joe thing happening again, right? We do. Okay.
44:43
Yeah, we do. And that, if you win Average Joe, that gives you a entry into the Matt Youmans Invitational, the Friday night invitational. So the winner of last year's Average Joe is in that this year.
44:54
Former Florida State quarterback. Dan, really? Yeah, gotta pull, gotta pull up the name. It was- Chris, Chris Winky is in, in Matt Youmans' thing? [laughs] Chris Winky, what's he up to these days? I don't know.
45:04
He's, like, 45 years old at this point, isn't he? Uh, pro- probably older than that. Oh, probably older than that, yeah. I think he was playing when he was 45. Yeah. That's why I bring up his age.
45:13
Um, anyway, so that's, we're looking forward to that this year. Who's the defending champion in the Youmans Invitational? I don't, I don't know. Like, I wanna say Felika. I was gonna say, did Felika win it last year?
45:24
He's gonna kill us if he- Or he won it a few years ago... or won it a few years ago. Did he, did he compete or did he contend at last... I don't even know. Anyway- He definitely played it. He's in it, like, every year...
45:32
that's definitely a show to watch, uh, throughout the season. Clyde Walker- Clyde Walker... last year's Average Joe contest winner.
45:37
Youmans show Friday nights for, uh, football handicappers is a must-watch, must-listen show here during football season. Nick Bakay's got a show on VSAN this year. Chris Massaro won it last year.
45:46
Oh, Chris Massaro won it. Yes. Congratulations, Chris. Chris Massaro won it last year. That's right. Uh, Nick Bakay's got a show on.
45:52
Maybe we'll get Nick on the show to talk about his show Wednesday nights here at VSAN as well. Add him to the guest list. Prop Points is next. John Hanson, enjoy, from VSAN, the Sports Betting Network.
46:06
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