Search
Login
Sign Up
Sep 20, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 20, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 20, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:47
1×
Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It is a football Friday, where sports betting lives. Glad to have you. It's Gil Alexander.
0:21
It's Kelly Biddle, everybody, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. What's happening, man? Not much, not much. Loaded show as always on Fridays here. Loaded. Let me just give you the second hour first.
0:31
Chris Fallica, Steve Fezzik, Dr. Bob. Bam. Yeah, that's not bad. That's only one hour of the show. Paul Carr with his Premier League picks, always moving the chains forward with his bets. Jason Weingart will join us.
0:42
We'll do, uh, are we sure in the NFL? Talk about our bets as well. Um, and obviously we wanna talk Jets and Patriots.
0:50
But on a football Friday, we have to make an exception at the start of this show, 'cause we have to talk- Yeah... about what Shohei Ohtani did yesterday.
0:59
And I, I, I am, I am, if nothing else, a baseball nerd, so when these things happen, I just have to stop and, and talk about them.
1:05
Shohei Ohtani, of course everybody knows by now, unless you were trapped under a heavy object, 50-50, the first 50/50 player, 50 home runs, 50 stolen bases in the history of Major League Baseball.
1:16
He does so in even more dramatic fashion than the night that he got to 40/40. The night that he got to 40/40, he got to the 40th home run with a grand slam walk-off.
1:26
Last night, he arguably gets to 50/50 with, you ready for this? The greatest single performance perhaps- [laughs]... in the history of Major League Baseball. That is not an exaggeration. In one ballgame.
1:40
That is not an exaggeration. Uh, first of all, let me just say this. Three home runs and two stolen bases. Let's say you just landed on Shohei yesterday. Right. Yeah, yeah. And he had three- That's the big one, yeah...
1:49
yeah, and he had, and he had three homers and two stolen bases. That hasn't, that had not been done since, I think 1901, they said. The beginning of the 20th century. That's the first time that's happened since.
2:01
When I was a kid, like I remember there was a- So it's never been done, by Kelly Biddle rules. By, by your rules. Yes. By, yeah, yeah. What is the, where does life- Prohibition. Prohibition is the cutoff.
2:08
Prohibition is where life cuts off? Yeah, ex- exactly, yeah. I see. Stats can only be counted after Prohibition. So there's, there's, uh, there's, there's God, there's evolution, and then there's the Biddleism.
2:16
That's [laughs] right. It just starts after Prohibition. I see.
2:19
Um, so anyway, that alone, right, like when I was a kid, um, I remember there was a baseball card, some k- some, uh, Nate Colbert, who used to play for the Padres, he had five homers in a double header, and they made a dedicated baseball card just about that one game.
2:33
They would have made a dedicated baseball card just about the fact that he had three homers and two stolen bases. Mm-hmm. So Shohei ends up, forget about that, he ends up with 10 RBI in the Dodgers- [laughs]...
2:47
rout- 10 [laughs]... of the Marlins. 10 RBIs, six hits. Uh, six for six, I should say. Five extra base hit, uh, b- five extra base hits, including the three homers and the two stolen bases.
2:58
Only one player has ever done all of that, as you might imagine, in one baseball game, and that is the great Shohei Ohtani, who stole a base, stole, uh, the, his 50th base after a double to start off the festivities for him.
3:11
Had another double after that. Um, he also got his 51st stolen base uncontested on his next at bat when he had a single.
3:19
Um, and then his last three out b- his last three at bats were homer 49, two run shot; homer 50 oppo, two run shot; and then just for good measure, a 51st, Jack. He's now 51-51. Uh, 55-55 maybe by the end of the season?
3:35
Yeah, for real, man. I- It's just incredible. And the Dodgers, by the way, headed to the postseason, of course. Do you think, uh- Shohei's first ever... just two things quick.
3:42
I don't know what it is about Shohei, but like every time he comes up in one of these at bats that we're all like sitting there, right, where you're like, "This could be history."
3:49
And it's just, he has the same facial expression. [laughs] It's just like, "I'm gonna go, I'm just gonna go out here and hit this home run." Um, it, it, it's ju- it's just wild, man.
3:58
And the fact that this guy's just gonna be pitching next year. Well, this is, and this is the final point I wanted to make.
4:03
Like let's- Like, i- i- the discussion of is he the greatest player of all time, and you know how, how I feel about Barry Lamar Bonds, but you can't even have the discussion. Shohei's a- You can't...
4:11
Cy Young level pitcher. Yeah. It's not even the same thing. He does both things at an elite level, and I, I, I- Like Gil, y- y'all, y'all told me- It's just incredible... the guy was gonna pitch and hit.
4:22
Like wh- wh- I didn't, you didn't tell me he was gonna steal 50 bags in a season too. Like what the heck? Like it's incredible. It's, it's incredible. Absolutely incredible.
4:27
Do you think, uh, you always b- you always do a great job breaking down the, uh, the, the stats with like the multiple home run games and cycles and everything.
4:35
W- would you rather have one of those home runs taken back to have the cycle to just say like, "This was the greatest baseball performance ever"? Oh, that's a good question. That's a good question.
4:43
Like would I have traded the 51st- Yes... homer for a triple? Probably. Right. Yeah, probably. You stink, Shohei. [laughs] 'Cause it'd be like slam dunk the greatest game ever that nobody could ever top.
4:53
Uh, I don't know that we'll ever see this beaten. Yeah. I really, I really don't. And then you were laughing at me- This is a good month for certain Major League players. 10 RBI, three homers- Right [laughs]...
5:03
two stolen bases. Like that's a good month for a lot of players. We were la- we were laughing pre-show. The, I didn't see it till this morning, but how close the guy was to grabbing the 50th- Oh...
5:12
uh, home run, and then it falls down. For the rest of- You gotta lay out for it, buddy... for the rest of his life, he is going to have that question ba- rattling around inside his dome of, "Should I have laid out more?"
5:24
Yeah. Should, should I have fallen six feet to concrete, but caught the ball? [laughs] And if he's- [laughs]... and if he's super introspective, he's gonna be like, "What does this say about me- [laughs]...
5:33
that I didn't do it in that moment?" Uh, I'll just tell you, Gil. Yeah. I'm diving for the concrete to make that catch. You totally are. Oh, I'm going over that rail for that ball. The bloodied Kelly Biddle.
5:42
And of course I would not come away with it. I would just be, yes, bloodied on the concrete with like a broken arm. Kelly Bloodlin. Plus. Um, Shohei Ohtani, tip of the cap. What do you say? What do you say?
5:52
And he's headed to the postseason for the first time in his career. Of course, he didn't sniff it with the Angels, so, uh- I don't know that, uh, Felique is coming on later. I, of course, I'm going to ask him.
6:00
I'll be like, "You s- you still think Lindor [laughs] is gonna be MVP?" [laughs] I just think, I think I have to have that conversation with him. Um, but that's just incredible.
6:07
You have to lead off 'cause juxtaposed against that football game last night, that absolutely- Yeah... has to be your lead. Um, I was wrong about the Pats. I was right about the under.
6:16
That ended up being one of my Megapod best bets as well. Uh, the, the Jets beat the Patriots last night 24 to three in a game that might as well have been 48 to three.
6:27
Like, that was just such a stomping, and I don't know where Jets good, Pats bad begins and ends, but certainly Pats bad, right? [laughs] Yeah, yeah. Uh, they couldn't tackle. They looked tired.
6:39
Uh, Jacoby Brissett was 12 of 18 for 98 yards. Um, they were out-gain... This is, I'll, I'll just go to the team stats 'cause the, the individual stats don't do it justice. Jets had 27 first downs, the Pats had 11.
6:52
The Jets were 10 of 15 on third down. Uh, the Patriots were two of 11 on third, and total yards, 400 to 139. [laughs] Oh my God. 400 to 139.
7:04
By the way, the passing yards 267 to 61 when you factor in the stats, and then the time of possession, 40 minutes and four seconds to 1956. That was wild. You get the idea.
7:17
And if you can, if you could have endured the three-hour slurp of Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit on Aaron Rodgers, then you watched this entire game. That was a little much, by the way, the, the three-hour slurp.
7:27
[laughs] I was like, "Okay, enough." [laughs] All, all right, well- But now I, I hope we put the Achilles thing to bed, ladies and gentlemen, for both Cousins and Rodgers.
7:34
I, I hope we can do that now after their last performances. But this is... W- we mentioned, I'm glad we mentioned this, that two weeks ago, you know, we would have thought this outcome would have happened. Mm-hmm.
7:45
And so while I was able to get the under, easy-peasy, the notion that the Patriots could have covered here, apparently I let recency bias get the best of me, 'cause that, that's the Jets team that we expected.
7:57
Yeah, I mean, look, we'll talk about it for the, from a betting perspective, we'll talk about this for the next, you know, few weeks, but it is always the, hey, when do you come off your priors- Yeah... right?
8:05
And when do your priors still hold true? Like you said, we would have said this is [laughs] this score seem, sound, this box score seems ex- very likely a few weeks ago. So I, I'm kinda with you.
8:16
I don't really know how much you put in the, okay, Jets good versus Patriots bad, but it was one of... I, I, I mean, we did at least expect the Patriots to be bad this season. Yes.
8:24
I don't know that I was expecting within the first few weeks to see one of the best Aaron Rodgers games that I've seen in years. He was great. He was awesome. He was absolutely great.
8:31
Uh, he looked every bit as sharp as you could have possibly expected from. On the run, he looked sharp. I- Uh, made all the right decisions.
8:38
He, he seemed to know, of course, in Aaron Rodgers fashion, what was happening pre-snap. Um, but the Patriots just didn't look like they were ready to play football last night. [laughs] They really didn't.
8:46
Um, and I will say this, and we have no idea. Here's the thing. When Thursday Night Football happens, we don't know what percentage of players played the Jets in Survivor.
8:55
There's 3,800 left in Circus Survivor specifically. I'm going to guess, this is just a guess, I could be way off, but I'm gonna guess about 10% of the pool had the Jets. You think it's that high?
9:07
I think it's gonna be three or 400. Okay. I do. I, I think, I know a lot of people are like, "Well, it's Thursday, it's gonna mute it, you know, anyway naturally."
9:15
I, I do think that's the case, but I think about 300 probably took a shot on them.
9:19
Um, I've gotten a few tweets, tweets about it, and good on you guys for doing it, and now you get to sit back and watch everybody else endure. Yeah. This, the, that's the other thing about Survivor, too.
9:28
Sure, and I'll have this talk with Fezzik later, um, in that second hour, 'cause Fezzik's theory is this is not going to go the distance, and I had a conversation, brief conversation with Derek Stevens yesterday on my way out, and I disagree entirely.
9:42
'Cause just 'cause the, just 'cause the rate of, of carnage that has existed so far has been the case doesn't mean it's a predictor of future carnage. Mm-hmm. So this could be a week where everybody wins. We don't know.
9:54
Maybe the Bengals win, maybe the Browns win. Maybe everybody who's gonna be a top pick gets there. Yeah, I, I mean, at some point you know one of those weeks is coming. You know, you know what I mean? For- Yes...
10:04
whatever you wanna say about the- It always does. Yeah, for whatever you wanna say about the entire season, at, the, it's not going to be carnage after carnage- Nope... after carnage after carnage.
10:12
It doesn't, and you will see it in the percentage that, that while we're, while this year is the most carnage through two weeks, that a couple other seasons in the brief five-year history of Circus Survivor actually gains ground this coming week.
10:24
Hmm. So yeah, it's gonna be interesting. Uh, bottom line, the Jets are still the second short shot now to win the AFC East behind the Bills.
10:31
The Bills are still the short shot, but then there's the Jets, and then there's a big gap between the Bills and the Jets, and then the Dolphins, who are, uh, distant single digits, and the Patriots obviously in a world of em- of their own.
10:42
Um, do you think the Jets should be the short shot or you're a Bills guy, so you probably think the Bills should be. Yeah, I'll have to re- remove a question from, are we sure? Oh, sorry.
10:51
But no, no, no, no, no, you're okay. Um, no, no, no. This is- There I go killing other segments... no, I think this goes back to our priors, right? Like, you know, I, I, I will stick by what I said all summer.
10:59
I've never bet against the Bills as long as Josh Allen's there. Do I think the Jets are the best team in the AFC East though? Yeah, I do. And I, and I still think that. And we, and we thought that before the season.
11:06
Yeah. I still think that. Yeah. Um- Or maybe I still think. I think that again, once again after last night. [laughs] Yeah. Could, could the Jets be, you know, one and two and not two and one?
11:16
Absolutely, but they're not. They banked the two wins, and good on them. They're two and one with now extra rest headed into next season.
11:23
Uh, my biggest single takeaway from this segment, I always like to, like, review the segment before we go. Hmm. Uh, the world began at prohibition, everybody. That's right. [laughs] The world began at prohibition.
11:30
No sports stats did. [laughs] Shohei, man. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. Wow. What do you say? And I cannot wait for... By the way, the other thing's happened. The, uh, the Twins lost for our Tigers bet yesterday.
11:41
That's awesome. And, uh, Mets still two ahead of the Braves in our other make the playoffs, miss the playoffs bet. Th- so that's good. Premier League with Paul next.
11:49
[upbeat music]Sports Betting Network Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa.
12:07
It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlack. I should say, uh, Circa Resort and Casino. People are like, "What's Circa?" Circa Resort and Casino, majestic, beautiful, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. We call it majestic again?
12:18
Yeah. Oh, think we can. I always wonder when there's, like, the hotel resort cutoff. You know, when does a hotel become a resort? Oh, great question. You know? Great question. When do you include spa?
12:27
They- 'Cause, like, some of the places around town are like, "Hotel, casino, spa." I think they decided that right after Prohibition, I think, or after. Once again- Probably... it all starts there.
12:35
Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Russ916-77458, 'cause 457 was taken. [laughs] "My football week doesn't start until I've listened to the Megapod." Oh, thank you, sir. Praise for the Megapod again this week.
12:46
Uh, the Beating The Book podcast, the Megapod, every Thursday. This week's rotating guest with Will Hill, Todd Wishnev, and me, Adam Chernoff from Right Angle Sports, and of course The Simple Handicap. He was great.
12:58
This is from GillsGuys15284, "Mine starts during Guessing Lines." The other podcast that we, uh... Guessing Lines we actually do here on The Numbers Game, and then we actually repurpose it for the podcast.
13:08
Uh, the Megapod is a standalone on the Beating The Book feed. This- Have, have we discussed Gil- the GillsGuys apostrophes before? No, we have not. Oh. D- did poor, poor apostrophe game? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
13:18
GillsGuys. Ooh. We gotta clear that up, yeah. Uh, MrBombApple. Sounds like something in hip-hop.
13:23
"Chernoff ripping Peyton and then picking Denver/ humble bragging about his age, not, not being born when Peyton started coaching.
13:31
Uh, Hill with the subtle humor and digs throughout, Todd being classic Todd, and Gil berating him. Best football pod going. Now worried about my Cincy Survivor pick." Oh, yeah, I haven't, haven't decided either.
13:40
Um, so the Megapod, again, really appreciate everybody, uh, chiming in on that, a bunch on that. One more.
13:47
This is from James Hughes, "Listening to Gil trying to recap Sean Peyton's decisions at the end of last week's game, the thought that crossed my mind, that there are three things certain in life, death, taxes, and Todd continually interrupting Gil."
13:57
[laughs] I love it. That's ab- Yes, that is a regular. [laughs] That's, that's, that's outstanding, yes. He has a problem with that. Uh, he has other great strengths, though, but that's a problem.
14:05
Um, okay, let us go to the heartland, Topeka, Kansas, where courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, we'll talk some Premier League with Paul Carr, everybody, uh, the, of course, host of the Expected Value podcast.
14:17
Also works at True Media Networks, where he spreads the gospel of analytics throughout baseball and football worlds. How you doing, Paul? I'm good.
14:26
Gil, I think if, if you wanna be a resort, I think you have to have at least two swimming pools. Oh. Is that- Or one giant one maybe. That's, that's what I'm thinking I was, I was about to say, is that true?
14:35
Or, but you're totally making this up is what you're doing. I'm totally making this up. Oh, okay. [laughs] I was like- And maybe a golf course. I don't know. You might have to have a golf course. Golf course. Yeah, yeah.
14:43
Yeah. Two pools and a golf course equals resort. That sounds, that sounds like a good equation. If you have a golf course, you definitely become a resort. Oh, for sure. Yeah. Instant resort status. Instant resort status.
14:51
Yeah. I think so. I'm glad we solved that. Uh, Paul, uh, Champions League picks, how did they go? Went one and two for the week. We got a 90-minute, uh, loser yesterday when Athletico scored, so that stunk.
15:02
But, uh, one and two. Feel, like, feel good about the handicaps, just not the results. Not the results. Um, what are we on the season?
15:08
Uh, so we're seven and five in the Premier League, so up a couple units so far, uh, through four weeks of Premier League. Okay. Anything surprise before we get to your picks?
15:16
Anything in the early going of the Premier League that i- if, you know, obviously can't draw too many conclusions, but is there something you have noticed that you're keeping your eye on?
15:26
I, I would say Liverpool is better than I expected sooner.
15:28
Jürgen Klopp retired, uh, from Liverpool, and so they brought a new manager, and I thought Liverpool would be, you know, a top four contender, but they're pretty clearly the third-best team at worst in the league right now.
15:39
So that's a little bit surprising that they're, they look as good as they do already under a new manager and a slightly new system. All right. You have a couple tomorrow. Uh, one includes Liverpool, which is an under.
15:49
What's happening you with, to you with the unders, Paul? [laughs] What's going on with you? I'm not sure. Mi- midlife crisis. Yeah. I'm not sure what's going on. I don't know how comfortable I am with this.
15:56
Rooting against human achievement, not as fun. Yes. But here we are. Here we are. Liverpool, Bournemouth under three and a half goals. Yeah, we'll start there. Uh, this is kinda simple.
16:05
So n- I mean, none of Liverpool's four Premier League games this season have had more than three goals. None have had more than three expected goals, so it's not fluky. And this goes to the new manager.
16:14
Jürgen Klopp played kind of a breakneck pace that generated a lot of high-quality scoring chances, both for his team and the other team. So obviously, lots of goals would come from that.
16:23
Uh, and Arne Slot, the new manager, has slowed things down. Fewer possessions per game this season. They're not as direct, meaning they're not going straight to goal quite as quickly.
16:32
Uh, all the underlying numbers and ways of measuring that suggest Liverpool is slowing things down.
16:38
And so their games just aren't as crazy, and under three and a half is not as, uh, nuts or painful as it might have been last year.
16:44
Uh, Bournemouth, you know, they're off to a decent start, but Liverpool's gonna dictate this game, so I expect this, again, 2-1 type of game in favor of Liverpool or something, under three and a half at minus 120.
16:54
All right. And then you have a both teams to score, the old BTTS. Yes. Both teams to score no, by the way. Oh, okay. I put that up. Yeah. Yes.
17:03
So this is not both teams to score, or usually it's a both teams to score no on, on most of the books will list it that way. This is Leicester City and Everton tomorrow.
17:11
Uh, two of the bottom three teams in the league in expected goals. They're both in the bottom half in shot quality.
17:17
Between them, they've played eight games, and only once has a team had, one of them had more than 10 shots in a game this season. These are also two relegation-threatened teams.
17:26
Both will think they can scrape out a win and get three points from this one. So I think this will be relatively tight. Everton has some injuries up top, so they're a little slower than they would be even normally.
17:36
So I just think this is one of your old rock fights type of games, so both teams to score no, plus 125. Both teams to score, the answer is no. Leicester City and Everton. Uh, Paul got plus 125.
17:48
Always shop around for the best price there. Also on a Saturday, along with that Liverpool under. Sunday, you have another under. Oh my God, what's going on here? Oh, I, I don't know. I don't even know you anymore.
17:59
I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'll try to do better next week. No, I like it. I... This is, uh, one of the big games of the year. This is the two best teams.
18:05
This is Manchester City and Arsenal I kinda wish they were playing a little bit later in the season, you know, a month later once things are humming a little bit more, and not on a Sunday after a Champions League week.
18:16
But here we are. So I like under two and a half in this one at minus 120. We had under two and a half in Man City's Champions League game midweek, and that was nil-nil.
18:25
Uh, there were plenty of good chances there, so that one could've gone much differently. But the last three games between these teams have had a total of three goals.
18:33
They played three times last season, total of three goals. This is what Arsenal wants to do. You look at their Champions League game against Atalanta yesterday, nil-nil, 14 total shots, under two expected goals.
18:45
That's what manager Mikel Arteta and Arsenal want to do on the road. They also have midfield injuries, so they're emphasizing their defensive stability a little bit more.
18:53
Uh, Arsenal, this is what they, they could try to control games. They don't wanna give up much. They don't create a whole lot. They're okay with that, too, especially on the road in big games.
19:01
So if you told Arsenal this would be nil-nil, they would, like, take it and run and probably have a party about it right now.
19:07
So nil-nil, one-nil, one-one, those are obviously the score lines that work for you, and I think that's what we get. Under two and a half, minus 120 is my price. All right, three-pack from Paul.
19:16
Uh, Saturday again, Leicester City-Everton, both teams to score, no. In other words, not both teams, uh, will score. No, no on the both teams will score at plus 125. Liverpool-Bournemouth, under three and a half goals.
19:27
And then Sunday, the big one, Man City and Arsenal, under two and a half. Man City right now with 12 points in the early going of the Premier League, Arsenal with 10. One-two right now. Newcastle's in there as well.
19:40
Um, so that's the big one. Paul's going under there. Real quick, I know you used to work at ESPN, uh, in research, Paul, and Shohei did what Shohei did last night. [laughs] Yeah. Three homers, 10 RBI, 50/50, now 51/51.
19:54
Uh, what would that have been like for you had you been at work at ESPN last night? Yeah. So the 50/50 part obviously you know is coming. There's a pack, you're ready for that. Uh, otherwise, these are the...
20:05
There are games, baseball games, soccer games, any kinda game, where very little happens, and you really struggle to find anything that's notable from a stat perspective. Last night is the complete opposite of that.
20:16
So much happened that the big challenge is not finding information, but which, you know, of this pile of notes, what are the best ones, and how to get those across.
20:26
'Cause he did so many different things, and you can mix and match, you know, three home runs and two steals, or 10 RBI and two steal. You know- Right... you can mix and match this so many different ways.
20:35
And you probably saw, you know, different notes scrolling through Twitter. Second guy to do it, first guy to do it, first guy in 100 years, when you just tweak the notes slightly.
20:42
So the biggest challenge is what are the best things, and then just being clear because there are so many similar things that you're inevitably gonna get asked, "Why, what about, I saw this. I thought it was this.
20:53
What is going on?" So it's just clarity in communicating everything and picking what are actually the best notes out of this mountain of goodness that Shohei has given us. Can I ask a really silly question?
21:03
Forgive me if this is ignorant, but what does that- Yeah... how do you, and how do you determine that the last three home run, two stolen base game was in 1901?
21:11
Do you stick it in some database and it spits out something? Yeah. Is it a query? 'Cause I-I- Uh...
21:15
assume Howie Schwab, when he was around, was not standing there answering all of y- [laughs] all of your questions about everything. No. I, I would say it's a combination of three things.
21:23
One is there are public resources, like Baseball Reference, where you can do a lot of these lookups. There are internal proprietary databases that ESPN has and has developed.
21:32
Or, it's like for the World Cup, we developed a database of every World Cup goal, categorized every possible way you could do it, and could use that to find the last time someone, someone scored with his left foot in the third minute against Germany or whatever.
21:44
Um, and then there's some proprietary, uh, things like contracting with the Elias Sports Bureau, where ESPN can ask questions 'cause they, they're the official statistician. That's right.
21:52
So especially when you get way back and things are a little bit fuzzy, uh, then it's all right, you can ask them a direct question and they'll spit it back at you. So it's some combination of all those things. Love that.
22:03
All right, on your way out, 30 seconds, you're a Dolphins fan. What's gonna happen this week? Yeah. Skyler Thompson. I don't know. [laughs] I, I, I'm depressed. I, I didn't wanna talk about it. Oh.
22:13
Thanks for bringing that up. Yeah. You're very welcome. All right. I mean, I'm a little more optimistic that w- week to game plan, that he, that it won't be terrible. You know?
22:20
He w- hasn't been terrible when he's had time and to prep and start in the past. I'm not saying he's been good, but he hasn't been, you know- Yeah... god-awful or something.
22:28
Well, that was, that was about the response I thought I would get, Paul. I'm sorry. Yeah. I should've cut it off after the Elias Sports Bureau talk. Yeah, thanks. Thanks. Thanks for that. I'm gonna go cry now.
22:35
Oh, well- Also pretty sure we've asked Paul about Skyler Thompson now multiple times on this show. [laughs] Dolphins four and a half point dogs at Seattle.
22:43
Thank you, Paul, appreciate it, for the, uh, three-pack of picks, and of course the, uh, the insight on what goes on on a night like that from Shohei. Kelly and I on NFL Week 3, all our plays, and are we sure, next.
22:54
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Nobody knows football like VSiN, and for a limited time you can get your first month of VSiN Pro for just $9.99. Sign up now.
23:11
You gain instant access to our daily best bets, 19 hours of live programming, proven betting systems, and our exclusive betting splits. Start a monthly subscription today.
23:19
Get your first month for only $9.99, or bet smarter through the entire NFL season with our football special for just $175. Don't miss out on these limited time offers. Go to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up now.
23:31
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe, and become a better bettor. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook, best listeners in the game. Always appreciate the feedback.
23:44
Expert, Trust the Glove, "Uh, in order for a hotel to be classified as a resort, you need to replace the S with a Z. Instant resort." AI tells me, by the way- Did not know that... this is Google AI tells me- Yeah...
23:54
that, uh, just simply a hotel's considered a resort when it offers more than just a place to sleep and basic services. So, like, coffee becomes a resort? Pretty much, yeah. Stop it. Stop it. It's a boring answer, AI.
24:06
Get better, AI. SoCal Fantasy, "Megapod is a must-listen, but it would be better as a must-watch. Didn't it used to be on video as well? Can it be uploaded to YouTube?" We used to put out a clip of it.
24:16
And just as a promotional clip, I'm not sure we're doing that anymore, um, based on the way we're, we're actually doing the Megapod now. I'll, I'll, I'll- In differ-... inquire within about that.
24:25
Different technology this year. Yes. Yeah. Mm Different technology. JasonH118, another great Megapod. It, it is a bit concerning though when the best part is when Todd is fat-shaming Will Hill.
24:35
[laughs] Todd, Todd, who is north of three bills but has lost eight pounds, is now fat shaming others. It's something. JoeC714, "Kudos to Gil for calling out the greatness of Ohtani when he first came over.
24:47
First person that I know that went on record and said he'll possibly be one of the greatest when others were doubting him. #ANumbersGame." Thank you, Joe C.
24:55
Uh, Jason Weingarten also right there, he's coming up later on the show here. A disc golfer. I did not know this 'cause we were, you know, focused on the Jets-Patriots.
25:02
Ohtani, on his, on his second triple, actually got thrown ou- uh, s- second double, pardon me, actually got thrown out stretching it, trying to stretch it into a triple. That's awesome.
25:11
He would've, he would've hit for the cycle yesterday to go with everything else, LOL. I was not aware of that. That's awesome. I was not aware of that either. Thank you, Disc Golfer. Ohtani, you're awesome.
25:17
Way to c- way to try. Way to try for it. Way to try. Yeah, moment, he was in the moment. Yeah. He knew what history was looking for. Bainbridge Deweese, "That Jets game was awesome.
25:24
I kept hearing your voice, Gil, saying, 'You have to take advantage of these opportunities when they come,' as I bet the Jets in-game four times."
25:31
I thought you were gonna say you kept betting the under, but Jets bet, uh, in-game four times also. Russ Ambrose.
25:36
Okay, this is, this might be a good indicator of what I was speculating with how, what percentage of people took the Jets and Survivor. End- I'm a survivor. Thank you, guys. Appreciate, [laughs] appreciate that.
25:47
It's like a Pavlov dog thing now. [laughs] End of week Survivor distribution offshore, per Russell Ambrose. Bengals and the Bucs 18%. This is of, of entries that have been submitted already.
25:57
Bengals and Bucs each with 18%, the Jets with 17%. So that- Wow... that would indicate- Okay... more than I thought, right? That would be about, you know, in terms of circus survivor, 600 plus. Um, wow. Okay. Um,
26:14
biggest movers for the early week, Jets with more picks and Bengals, Bucs lower. I know that part, I mean- I'm a little surprised Seahawks aren't closer to that group up top.
26:23
So it looks like a lot of people just bet, uh, all of a sudden before game time, put in Jets picks. They like, they, they were- Yeah... contemplating and then they threw in the Jets.
26:30
Raiders, by the way, and Browns right after that. So those are the four top. Bengals, Bucs, Jets, Raiders, Browns. Five top survivor plays. That doesn't surprise me. That doesn't surprise me. Is that it, guys? That's it?
26:41
Okay. Um, all right. NFL, so what bets have you made? What's in pocket right now? Oh, boy. I got a lot. Let's review. Yeah, you wanna go over yours first? I'll go over mine first.
26:51
Uh, I have the Bengals and Vikings in a six-point teaser. That is my, uh, the teaser play that I made. Um, so again, taking the Bengals down through the seven and three, taking the Vikings up through the three and seven.
27:03
Um, Bengals taking on the, uh, Commodores on Monday night. Remember, two Monday night games this week. Two Monday night games. Oh, and like what, five late window games. Finally- Oh, it's a beautiful schedule...
27:13
this is the schedule, NFL. Please. Vikings hosting the Texans, by the way, in that, uh, leg of the teaser. I did take the Saints. On Guessing Lines I was right. I guessed Saints minus two and a half.
27:23
It ended up, it was Philly minus two and a half or whatever it was on Guessing Lines. This came to my guess, um, about 24 hours later. I still bet the Saints at minus two and a half, and I do have the Bengals.
27:33
I, I bet the, uh, I bought it down to seven on the Bengals minus 122 against the Washington Commodores on, uh, on Monday night, the second of the two Monday night games.
27:43
And last night I had both the Patriots loss and the under win in the Thursday night game. So two of mine are already in the rear view. Nice. Okay. I may add or I may not, I don't know. Like- Yeah. No...
27:52
the reason that I ended up with a total, like Megapod listeners will tell you, I rarely play totals in the three best bets, but I just didn't think there was enough good stuff- Oh...
28:01
in week three for me to not play that total last night. Okay. Interesting you bring that up because I, I haven't checked on this.
28:09
I'd be willing to bet though that I have, I have bet on more totals these first few weeks- Yeah... than I ha- uh, I have in the last four or five years. Something like that. I, I- Interesting...
28:17
don't really know that there's anything to it. I don't, you know. Um, okay. For mine this week, I'll start with the ones I hit on opening lines. Uh, Bucs six and a half, but that's right there still.
28:25
Um, I don't know if I'm feeling as confident about that as the week goes on, but, uh, Bo Nix, uh, hadn't really shown much, so I'm not, uh, not completely shying away from it either. Titans money line, um, I got 125.
28:37
Yes, it is a little higher now. Cardinals three and a half, that is not around anymore. Um, yeah, St- I know Fezzik bet these. This is a little bit of a tale of him.
28:45
Uh, uh, these top two totals, 49ers, Rams under 44, uh, just kind of as the injury information was coming out midweek on both of these teams. Thought that was a good under play.
28:54
Dolphins, Seahawks under 41 and a half as well. Seahawks defense has been looking great. Uh, Dolphins obviously gonna be rolling int- into Seattle with a backup quarterback. Um, Lions, Cardinals over 51.
29:06
Played the over in that game. I have a Cowboys, Niners teaser. So Cowboys up to seven and a half, Niners down to one and a half. Um, and then Ayuk over 63 and a half receiving yards.
29:17
That is a Matt Brown tail, uh, from the other day. And then I, I've got, uh, that, uh, these are a lot of bets for me, Gil. Yeah. More than I was expecting. None of them are overly heavy.
29:28
I've still got others I'm considering adding though. You, you ain't too br- you ain't too proud to tail is your thing. You're not too- Yeah, ex- oh- Yeah... and I always wanna give credit where- Yeah...
29:35
cred- credit's due. But the, I, like Eagle- Eagles, Saints threes are starting to pop. Yeah. I, I kinda told myself if they're three, if it hit three, I might need to get involved with Philly.
29:45
Um, I'm, I'm waiting for Steve Fezzik to come in here and convince me that the Chargers belong in a s- in a- Oh... teaser with the- He-... with the Bengals...
29:52
he will give a whole Chargers dissertation- 'Ca- 'cause I, I-... on a teaser. Yeah... I think I like that side, but oh man, do we know some sharp guys- [laughs]...
29:58
that are, like, in love with the Chargers this week- Oh, they love them... that I just, I can't fully get on board yet. Yeah.
30:04
Um, and then this Texans number keeps coming down, and like I, you can get Texans minus 130 on the money line right now, and I, I don't know, I might be involved in that side.
30:12
And you believe they're the greatest team in the NFL right now. I think they are the best team. Uh, real quick before we do are we sure in the NFL. Mm-hmm.
30:16
I just wanna say this because, uh, betting tennis, vsin.com/picks, every host, every guest, all sports, every pick is logged at vsin.com/picks. Um, and I have, I've been betting tennis for subscribers.
30:28
This is all for subscribers, so you guy- it pays to subscribe. The tennis plays are in Asia. Uh, the lady side is in Seoul, Korea and in Thailand.
30:36
Uh, we have three picks on the overnight, and it was supposed to all be played in the overnight, but all, everything got delayed. So one of 'em, we just hit one, Hartono beat Hontama. This is in Thailand.
30:46
You know Hartono and Hontama, of course. Uh, so we win as a, uh, as a slight, uh, we're a slight favorite or slight dog, I'd have to check at this point 'cause I get confused with all three of them. But it's up there.
30:55
And so Hartono's a winner. We have a, a second one coming up, which is Laura Siegemund, a German player who was a slight favorite when I bet it last night against Rebecca Marasarova.
31:05
So Siegemund is the play right now if you can still get in on that in Thailand. Uh, and then later tonight, that got pushed back 24 hours, Diana Shnaider is the third pick taking on the lovely Marta Kostyuk.
31:18
So Hartono a winner, Siegemund coming up in two minutes, or five minutes, whatever it is, you know how tennis goes, and then, uh, Shnaider tonight. Back to football. Are we sure? You ready? I see Shnaider plus 110.
31:30
I, I can't find the other tennis tournament. Must, it m- must be starting pretty soon here. Sorry I didn't get that in. Yeah, you're fine. Foot- football takes over. All right, are we sure? Are we sure? Are we sure? Yes.
31:40
Bryce Young will never start for the Panthers again. Uh, well, if Andy Dalton got hurt, he would. But if we're talking about beyond injury, by choice- Yeah. Yeah, I should've said that... uh- Barring an injury... uh, no.
31:55
No, unless they're so bad at the end of the year that he would, that he would get a mercy start. So I'm gonna say, by choice, no. Okay. By choice, no. I agree. I agr- Never for the Panthers... I agree with you. Yeah.
32:07
I'm actually kinda surprised how much talk I feel like I've heard of, like- Yeah... "Well, I, you know, give him, give him a few weeks, and yada, yada." I'm like, "Nah, I think he's done with that franchise." Yeah.
32:14
Unless, unless there's an injury, or unless there are some games at the end of the year where they are so far out of it- Yeah... it just doesn't matter.
32:20
And as correct as we were about Bryce Young, I still say Canales, for these two games early in the season, deserves, deserves some blame. Oh, totally. Like, play him in the preseason, for God's sake. Totally. Yeah.
32:29
Yeah, I, uh, your, your point on him in the preseason is- Yeah. I mean, we've talked about a lot of people in the preseason, but like, what, what world did we think that guy didn't need reps?
32:37
Uh, didn't get it at this time. Um, okay, are we sure the Saints are the best team in the NFC South? Uh, I am sure. Okay. I am sure they are the best team in the AFC South.
32:45
I th- well, I mean, the Falcons are still there. I, I think the Saints are. Uh, but I, but the question is are we sure? Right. No, I'm not sure. I'm not sure. Okay, I'm not sure. I'm not sure. Yes. Yeah.
32:55
I, I, you, you, uh- Yeah... I expected you to say, "Yes, I'm sure." Yeah. You, no, you backed off. No. You're right. It is- I'm not sure... are we sure? Yeah. I'm not sure. Yeah. I'm not sure. Okay.
33:04
Are we sure that the passing game struggles we've seen these first two weeks are gonna continue the whole season? No. It's a, it's a product of, uh, of teams not playing preseason, like, s- seriously.
33:13
They, they will get better. Okay. I agree. Yeah. Um, I think there's that. I think there's some defea- uh, defensive schemes. Are we sure the Ravens should be favored on the road this week? Um, no, not 100% sure.
33:24
I guess that Dallas would be favored on guessing lines. Hey, real, uh, last one real quick. Are we sure the 0 and 2 Bengals deserve to be the favorites in the AFC North?
33:33
Uh, no, we're not sure about that, even though we have bets on it. You and I have plus 175, but I go through that whole thing. Plus 175 doesn't mean that they are the, the favorites, but it's a good number.
33:43
I think it's the Ravens and the Bengals. I think it's a two-team talk, but I'm not sure they're above the Ravens. Ravens, I don't know if you know this, pretty good franchise.
33:51
Jason Weingarten next, right here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:07
Are you the type of player who's looking to get down $10,000 or more on an NFL line at the best price in the market? Or perhaps you're looking to get your in-game play instantly accepted?
34:16
Introducing SportTrade, the app that's gonna change sports betting. Minus 104 lines instead of the typical minus 110 instant in-game betting, and a concierge player service.
34:25
SportTrade is perfect for those who want a premium betting experience. SportTrade live in New Jersey, Colorado, and Iowa.
34:32
And we had some confusion on this yesterday, but Arizona will be live in a couple days per SportTrade. Also coming to Virginia early next month.
34:40
Download SportTrade, use code VSiN to earn 10% cashback on each wager in your first week. Terms apply. Gotta be 21 years or older to play.
34:46
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin.
34:53
Historian Kelly Bidlin, who has told us that the dawn of time began at prohibition- Can I-... early last century... can I do some quick commercial hot takes? Please. Okay.
35:02
Um, have you seen the Case Keenum backup commercial? No. Oh, it's fantastic. It's, uh, one of the most well-done commercials ever. The s- Case, Case Keenum has a commercial? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
35:12
Uh, the, so that's part of what makes it great, right? Yeah.
35:15
But it's the, the whole idea of it is the guy can't, like, back his truck in with a trailer into his driveway properly, so the wife call, like, taps Case Keenum to go, like, fill in for him. [laughs] Amazing.
35:26
It's amazing. Amazing. And Will Ferrell has a credit card commercial now that I can't tell if it's funny or not, or if my brain is just trained at this, at this point in time to laugh at anything Will Ferrell does.
35:37
You're, you're f- you're factory wired for Will Ferrell comedy. Exactly. Yeah. And then Jennifer Garner. These commercials gotta stop. Like, this is, Tom Hanks, like, the, the League of Their Own one is just awful.
35:47
Like, especially since she's supposed to be a trained actress. Like, I, it's really bad. Well, I th- If I was Tom Hanks, I'd be very upset about it...
35:53
oh, I thought you were referring to, uh, "You may know me from my other job." Well, that one's not great either. Yeah. Yeah, I don't, no. Okay. I'm glad we settled that. Yeah. Uh, JD Peterson.
36:01
We get tweets that beat to the book. JD Peterson, uh, love the show, Gil. He's talking about the mega pod here. He says, "Too much to ask to get a summary rundown of everyone's picks at the end? Thanks."
36:10
[laughs] I love when someone phrases- [laughs]... phrases a question, "Too much to ask?" Okay. Uh, yeah, I get the idea. I, uh, no, it's not too much to ask. Jed O'Connor, "Rogers didn't play football for a full year.
36:20
I can see him progressively get better as the year goes. Same as Kirk and rookies as the year unfolds. I believe this also holds true with lower talent quarterbacks, quarterbacks to get worse as the year progresses."
36:29
Well, as far as the Rogers and Kirk thing, that's what I've been saying all along. Um, you won't hear anybody talking about Achilles from now on with these two guys. Yeah. Like, nobody's gonna talk about it.
36:39
Uh, Bruce Dobekan. [laughs] Bruce. "Pickleball courts make the resort." [laughs] How dare you? Uh, of course Steve Fezzik has weighted. Uh, we get texts. He just texted me this. Oh, what'd he say?
36:51
If a hotel has a concierge, then it's a resort Oh, that's a good, that's a good one. Yeah, it's a good one. Yeah That's a good one. Uh, volatileacid.
36:56
By the way, the pickleball thing, pickleball has waged war on tennis and enough is enough. Tennis is gonna retaliate. It, it's kinda broken Gil and Matt Brown's friendship- I-... a little bit.
37:06
I think it's, it's hurt it a little bit. I love tennis. I love playing tennis. I love playing ping pong, or table tennis, whatever you wanna call it. But this thing in the middle called pickleball- [laughs]...
37:15
is mass hysteria. It's the most group think, everybody's decided this is a great thing. Oh, man. [laughs] It's not. It's terrible. I didn't, I didn't really think about it. You're right, it's exactly in the middle.
37:25
Tennis and ping pong. It's horrible, and then people are like, "All right, actually this is such great exercise." [laughs] Is it? Is it?
37:31
Uh, volatileacidit, uh, [laughs] I think I'm saying that right, loose ca- loose cannon. Wish I didn't know this, but a resort, uh, he Googled this, right?
37:39
On-site amenities, recreational activities, self-contained experience, vacation focused, and location, typically a scenic destination. Yeah, come on loose cannon.
37:45
This is like the same thing that popped up on Google- [laughs]... when I searched it.
37:49
Rick Olier, uh, "Ohtani's game was the most impressive athletic feat since Young Gil had 834 yards through the air, 271 on the ground, and 70 total touchdowns while playing Pop Warner in the DMV," he meant area, "circa 1984.
38:04
#letsride." How'd you know? You had the cameras rolling. Geez, that's amazing. I didn't really notice them at the time. Um, and I think that's it. Do we have one more? No, that's it, uh, on the tweets.
38:13
Thank you guys, appreciate that. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, is he, uh, ready to go? He is? Yeah, so we're, we're trying to determine. From under a cloud of smoke? Yes, no? I don't know. In Southern California?
38:22
Is he there? Courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Somebody help me out. Yeah, I, I think he's there. Jason Weingarten, we think. Maybe. Yes. Jason W- There There he is. How you doing, Jason? How's it going? What's up?
38:33
Uh, listen, someone gave me credit here kindly on Twitter for saying I was the first, Joe C did, gave me the credit for saying I was, he, I was the first person he heard bigging up Shohei back in the day.
38:44
I, I will then pass it to you, because I will give you credit as the guy who was the first to make bets on Shohei. Last night, is that the greatest single game you've ever witnessed by any player?
39:00
Well, I did not witness it, so it's not the single greatest game I've ever witnessed.
39:06
Um, but in terms of, of baseball history, it's hard to point to anything in, in my lifetime that I can say is impressive as what Ohtani did yesterday. I mean, he did, you know, what you do in video games, basically.
39:20
The only, the only sort of thing I'd point out is it's unfortunate he did it against such a, such a bad team that- Yeah... you know.
39:28
Like, that's the thing is, like, it, it is not, taking nothing away from Ohtani, are we really calling the greatest day beating up, you know, a glorified AAA team- [laughs]...
39:37
of jobbers at the end of the season that doesn't even wanna be out there? I mean, those guys on the, across from the Dodgers are just straight up losers. So, yeah. Yeah, it was, uh- Yeah... it was very sad.
39:46
I, I, I- Yeah... I mean, I saw it live. I don't, I'm sure everybody's seen the highlights by, uh, by now.
39:51
But him rounding third, uh, after the home run, uh, the 50th home run, and then you're like, "Yeah, let's check out the upper decks of Marlins b- uh, Stadium right now." Yeah. Nope, nobody there. Not a soul.
40:00
Any, anybody who's had the experience of playing Little League baseball and being on the bad or worst team in the league knows how the Marlins felt yesterday.
40:11
[laughs] Just having the stand out there while the best player on the other team's hitting home run after home run on you, running around the bases. I mean, it brings back Little League experience, uh, memories for me.
40:23
I don't know about you. Cut, cut to a sh- cut to a shot of a young Jason Weingarten in the outfield, like blowing on dandelions while the game is going on. [laughs] I, I'm so with Jason. Yes, I am so with Jason.
40:31
[laughs] This is when you're like nine and you're like, "Let's get this game over with already. Where's the pizza?" This is boring. Where's the Capri Sun?
40:37
[laughs] Um, any picks, any plays in baseball, or are you staying off baseball this time of year? I mean, even if I say I'm gonna stay off baseball, I can't do it, you know?
40:48
Like, I'm gonna end up betting a couple things every day.
40:51
Um, and you know, like I mentioned before, at this point I'm mostly just circling games that I think, you know, a, a team, you know, a playoff team versus a non-playoff team, I'm kinda looking at those.
41:03
Or, as opposed to, you know, trying to find two teams that have basically given up already and figure out who's gonna win that.
41:10
One thing I do like to point out around this time is, is yesterday, for example, uh, the, the Rangers were on the brink of elimination. If they lose this game, they're out of the playoffs.
41:21
A lot of times when I see stuff like that, I like to bet against those teams because I think they know that they're about to be eliminated, and they're kinda just like, "Hey, let's get it over with.
41:31
It's, you know, it's inevitable at this point." So, um, I do look for situations like that. Today I bet the Tigers. Tigers plus 148. They are- Let's go...
41:40
one of the, one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, and they're likely gonna, gonna stick around and make this last week pretty interesting.
41:47
So I got that, and then otherwise I'll probably look at a couple, uh, live spots.
41:53
And then I always have got my eye on the Mets at this point, and I'm, I'm kind of wondering if I'm just gonna end up betting the Mets every day the rest of the season and worry about my, uh, Braves yes, they'll make the playoffs, how I'm gonna deal with that.
42:05
Well, let me just ask you this, 'cause I have the Tigers to make at plus 47, uh, plus 450 from a few days ago. Yes. I have the Braves to miss at 8 to 1. Am I m- am I gonna win both of those, or am I gonna split?
42:18
Or am I gonna lose both? It, I think you split most like, most likely outcome, but both are live. There's so much calculus with the Braves- Yeah... and how the season ends. Um, they finish the season versus the Royals.
42:30
Are the Royals gonna be in the playoff before those final three games? Uh, it comes down a lot of stuff with strikeouts. Is Cole Reagan's gonna pitch on the last day of the season?
42:40
Is Chris Sale gonna potentially pitch on, on four days' rest on the last day of the season if, if the Braves are still alive and need, need a win?
42:47
There's, there's a lot of questions I have as we come down this final stretch. But that does, it, it ends up being one of the most fun things in baseball. Oh.
42:55
And always one of the most memorable is that last week, the, you know, the last day when, when teams are alive.
43:01
I remember there was one year the Royals, or not the Royals, the, the Rays were alive on the last day of the season and had to win. And, you know, it, it's crazy stuff.
43:09
It's, it's one of the more fun parts of baseball is when we get down to the last couple days. Still worried about the Mets.
43:14
Two game lead over the Braves, and the Mets have, uh, three left against the Phillies, three left against the Brewers, uh, and three left against those very same Braves.
43:22
Mets, by the way, 13 and 4 in the month of September. They lead the Guardians 12 and 6 this month. Tigers 11 and 5, Phillies 11 and 6 at the top of the September standings. Week three NFL, Jason, did you bet anything?
43:35
I bet the Packers again. I was super impressed with, uh, Matt Lafleur's, LaFle- LaFleur's game plan with Malik Willis. That was just, I wish more teams ran a, a 1960s running offense like that.
43:49
Um, so I took plus three minus 120. Think we see Jordan Love back sooner than later, but, uh, Malik Willis did a, uh, a decent job. So, uh, that's, that's my bet.
43:59
Otherwise, looks like it's gonna be a pretty light week in the NFL for me. I might take the Chargers, um, but I know there's some stuff with, uh, with Herbert, Herbert's ankle or whatever.
44:08
So, um, playing it kinda, kind of, uh, l- you know, I haven't, I haven't bet a b- a lot yet on that. Yeah.
44:15
That's the thing with the Ch- you were talking earlier, Kelly, about that w- like some sharp bettors, Chargers conviction. Mm-hmm. They sort of omit the Justin Herbert part of that, right?
44:23
I mean, I'm sure they're, I'm sure they haven't mentally, but it's just are we sure he's better than like 80% healthy? I- I don't know. No, we don't know. I don't know. Jason, appreciate- Doesn't sound like it.
44:31
Jason, appreciate it very much. Doesn't sound like it. Matt, thank you. Thank you for having me. Have a good week, and guys, I'll talk to you next week. You too.
44:37
Jason Weingarten at Spreadapedia, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Football Friday, Falica, Fezzik, Dr. Bob next on a Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
