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Sep 20, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 20, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 20, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:34
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:11
VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube, TV, however you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander on a football Friday. Coming up this hour, Steve Fezzik, uh, in studio.
0:22
By the way, Steve makes a great point before he even gets here, which is when we're going through those percentages of submitted survivor pools, that even though the Jets are 16 or 17% right now, that's the only one submitted before the Thursday game.
0:34
So as the other survivor entries come in before Sunday, of course, inevitably, that percentage will fall. So maybe my guess of around 10% was more accurate, so that's a good point. Uh, Fezzik will be here, Dr.
0:45
Bob in the cleanup spot. Dr. Bob, who, uh, famously said about him being in the cleanup spot, "That's great, Gil. Now everybody will have to anticipate me the most," or something like that. And Chris Fallica standing by.
0:55
A few tweets before we, uh, before we get to Chris. Uh, we had tweets at Beating The Book.
0:59
BeesBets, "What do you guys think about Shoemaker's decision," this is the Marlins manager, uh, Skip Schumaker, "during the game yesterday not to walk Shohei? Also, his comments during and after the game.
1:09
Stand-up dude for sure in my eyes." I agree, BeesBets. I mean, I thought that's the right... He's like he, uh, he wanted to respect the game, he said. He wasn't going to walk Shohei in a blowout game.
1:20
So I think it was absolutely the proper thing to do. I think it's only a discussion had he done the opposite, right? Had he just punted on going after Shohei in that moment. That would've been the awkward thing to do.
1:32
This is from TheRealJoby. "Uh, great talk about the new batch of commercials earlier today. Perhaps we can get a weekly segment with the legendary matriarch of the Jardian cinematic universe with her analysis."
1:41
Now, what kind of show would have the Jardians girl on? That's what I ask. What kind of show? And then finally, uh, this is Pick101323 who said, "Uh, please don't," [laughs] with Jason, I, I think I succeeded here.
1:52
He said, uh, you said, "Please don't bring up Skeens/Merrill. I don't wanna hear this guy cry." [laughs] Okay, well, I didn't, so I hope, I hope you enjoy this segment. Ladies and gentlemen, he is The Bear.
2:01
That's what he's known as, but his real given name by his mother and father is Chris Fallica. Christopher Fallica. He became The Bear as an adult. He now works at Fox Sports.
2:10
You can see him on big noon Saturdays at Fox Sports, he college football, and of course, he's got The Bear Bets pods, an empire, football and college football, which he does with, uh, Will Hill, Sammy P, and others.
2:20
Jeff Schwartz in there as well. It's Chris Fallica, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Chris, how you doing, man? I, we, we can thank Lee Corso for the, for the nickname. I, I appreciate it. I always
2:31
credit the, the, to Mr. Corso for, for giving me the nickname. You can't give yourself a nickname, so, uh, yeah.
2:36
Could you, uh- That was a Lee- Could you retell, could you retell that story real quick, how, what, how, what Corso said to you and why? So, so basically, uh, it, it was,
2:45
long, uh, the end of the story basically is Corso took a look at me in a hotel lobby.
2:50
Kirk and I were having, uh, brunch, uh, one morning, like gym shorts, T-shirt, and just kind of looking frazzled 'cause we'd just gotten up.
2:58
And, uh, Coach came in off from his morning walk and stopped at our table and looked at me, looked at Kirk, looked at the table, a- and looked at me, and, uh, just said, "Look at you, Fallica. You're like a big bear.
3:10
[laughs] All you do is eat, sleep," and I'm not gonna say that curse word again. Tried to trap me into saying a curse word two weeks in a row on this show. That's what I did. It's me trapping you, yeah.
3:18
Um, but I could, if, but, but if people know, like, you get this look in your eyes when the food is in front of you, so I t- [laughs] I totally get why he- Oh... he went with that.
3:25
Anyone who's been, anyone who's, who has seen Kirk and I out and about in the past, like, like know that, like, any dead space on the table where there's not, like, some type of appetizer or something is just wasted space.
3:35
Wasted space, yeah. That's how we roll. Listen, I, uh, I, I wasn't gonna bring this up, but, uh, I don't know if you know this, but the great Shohei Ohtani, uh, went 50/50 last night, and in fact, 51/51- He did...
3:45
with maybe the greatest single game performance in the history of baseball. Three home runs, 10 RBI, two stolen bases. Just the three homers and two stolen bases alone hadn't happened in more than a century.
3:57
Um, and last week you came on here and you famously tried to, [laughs] tried to stump for Francisco Lindor for MVP. I did. Will you now back down from this?
4:04
I, I, I, I stu- I stumped for Francisco Lindor so much he, he herniated a disc in his back and probably- Right...
4:10
got a, a, a Toradol and a horse tranquilizer dose about, uh, the size of a 12-ounce water bottle to try and play the last, uh, 10 days of the season.
4:18
Now, I, I haven't said all along, he's probably gonna win, but, but w- what this does now do, and, and, and if right, it's right.
4:25
Uh, he, every year he is healthy and plays a full season that he hits and pitches, he should be the MVP. Yep. And you cannot make the price, uh, l- short enough on him next year, not- And we're made up...
4:40
and pitch again. Everybody should bet him, uh, preseason to win MVP because that's the, uh, that, that, that's where, that's where we're gonna be.
4:46
But I, I wasn't sure if that tweet was headed towards me or Jason with the whole Skeens/Merrill- Oh, I don't know. I, I s-... uh, debate going back and forth...
4:54
I s- That, that is one, that is one where I put the, I put those numbers out there earli- about, like, the, the game winning kn- time, the ERA, and the WHIP and everything, a- and how, like, Skeens, his numbers are Cy Young level, not just Rookie of the Year.
5:06
And that, that was almost as a, much of a curse word as me suggesting that L- Lind- Lindor should pr- should get more votes for MVP than anything. Hey, uh, Chris, do me a favor.
5:15
Uh, your, your audio, surprise, little janky. Yeah. So we're gonna call you back. We'll, we'll take you- Don't belong to s- We'll take- Call me back... we'll take you off [laughs] for 10 seconds and we'll call you back.
5:24
In the meantime, guys, if we could show those, uh, those, uh, September stats for Major League Baseball and also MLB best record, that would be good.
5:31
September, again, where the Mets, for those who have a bet in this kind of market, the Mets are just rolling through it.
5:39
Uh, the New York Metropolitans 13 and four with a plus, uh, that's not updated, that's from yesterday, but 13 and four. Uh, there you go, plus 49 run differential, followed by the Guardians, 12 and six.
5:50
Uh, everybody has either nine or eight games left. Most have nine left. Tigers 11 and five, Phillies 11 and six, and then you see the Padres, Yankees, and Reds with 10.
5:58
Our pick of the, uh, Diamondbacks here, not on the screen. Uh, they're in 10th place right now at nine and eight, so they got work to do.
6:05
And then for- Then for MLB best record real quick, uh, Phillies and Dodgers now in a dead heat, ninety-one, sixty-- uh, ninety-one and sixty-two.
6:14
But the top six teams are only four games apart with the Padres in the sixth spot at eighty-seven and sixty-six, in case you're in that market. Falica's back. Here's Falica, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
6:24
All right, uh, let's get right into it. Yeah. Pro football, real quick, week three, what do you have? What do you like? Um, I, I was listening to you earlier, and I kind of discov- discovered the same thing.
6:36
Like, I didn't like a ton of sides this week, uh, at all. I played, um, uh, Jacksonville Buffalo over forty-five and a half. Uh, I think that Bill's defense obviously still has a ton of issues.
6:49
Uh, I'm gonna give the Jags offense one last chance to, to, to put up twenty-four, twenty-eight and something like this.
6:54
And it still, it still looks like the Bill's best player is Josh Allen running, uh, running around and creating. But over forty-five and a half seems like a, a number that they should be able to reach there.
7:04
I played under forty-six in Houston, Minnesota. I love both of these defenses. You know Brian Flores is gonna draw something up, uh, against C.J. Stroud.
7:13
And at the same time, the Texans defense plays, uh, kind of in the mold of their head coach, Brian Flores. So, uh, that's gonna be a test for Sam Darnold as well. So, uh, the two totals there.
7:23
Uh, the, the side that I like, I played Kansas City minus three and a half at Atlanta. Uh, that game Monday night was more about the Eagles losing than the Falcons winning.
7:33
Uh, I know the Fal-- the, uh, the Chiefs don't have Pacheco, but at the same time, I think in a primetime game like this, uh, they can rely on that pass rush to, uh, get to Cus-- That, that was the biggest issue Monday night is the Eagles pass rush was kind of non-existent.
7:45
If they can get, they get pass rush after Cousins, I think that will, that will help them. So those are the three things I played, uh, i-in the NFL.
7:52
And, and by, and by the way, can, can I add, uh, another candidate for you? Are, are we sure? Sure. Are we sure that the... Are we sure the Houston Texans are not the best team, uh, in the AFC and maybe all of the NFL?
8:03
Kelly is not. He is definitely not sure. He keeps saying it. He go-- He just hasn't br- He has-- doesn't have the willpower yet to make them number one in his power rankings, but he's sure thinking it. Sure thinking it.
8:15
Kansas City, by the way, three-point favorites now on the road- Okay... against the Falcons on Sunday Night Football. Three, and even three with just slightly, uh, extra juice on that.
8:24
All right, college football, the floor is your, th- uh, floor is yours. Three minutes of college football. What do you got? Yeah, uh, kind of, kind of, kind of the same thing.
8:31
My favorite play this week was, uh, Tennessee Oklahoma under fifty-seven and a half. Uh, I think everyone's gonna look at gaudy numbers put up against, uh, Chattanooga and Kent State by the Vols.
8:42
Uh, this is still a conference road game, and we saw last week how Georgia went on the road in conference play, uh, struggled against a Kentucky team that was embarrassed the week before.
8:53
Uh, Oklahoma is an offense that I think is, what, a hundred and sixteenth in the country in yards per play. Uh, they are going to struggle to move the ball against a really good Tennessee front.
9:03
Um, I, I, I think obviously if Tennessee gets a chance to run it up on Oklahoma, uh, they will because of the Josh Heupel history there.
9:11
But I, I, I don't, I don't see Tennessee having an easy time against Brent Venables' defense. The guy can still coach defense. So under fifty-seven and a half Tennessee Oklahoma.
9:20
Uh, under f- under nineteen and a half Michigan team total a-against USC, uh, with Alex Orji at quarterback. It, it's pretty obvious what Michigan's game plan's gonna be.
9:30
Just kinda run him around, control the clock, uh, time and possession, keep the USC offense off, off the field.
9:36
And gonna kind of be the same thing we saw against Texas, where they just fell behind so early that they really weren't able to stick in that game plan.
9:44
But under nineteen and a half, uh, Michigan team total against a, a much improved, uh, USC defense. I played Rice plus seven against Army in kind of a stink bomb game of the week. Rice has been really disappointing. Hmm.
9:57
Uh, EJ Warner's been a turnover machine. Uh, I think they-- if they c- can avoid some turnovers here, they can hang around, get a full touchdown against Army.
10:05
And then we're gonna welcome Louisville to the, uh, twenty twenty-four college football season. Uh, played over thirty-four and a half against Georgia, uh, team total against Georgia Tech.
10:14
I know the Irish have, uh, Notre Dame next week, and it could be a little bit of a, uh, a look ahead. But a hundred and eleven to fourteen, they beat an Austin Peay and Jacksonville State. Uh, they got a deep backfield.
10:26
Paxton Shuck, uh, the, the quarterback there, used to play at, at, uh, at Oregon.
10:31
And, and I think if you look at what the, the Georgia Tech defense allowed when they went on the road against Syracuse a couple of weeks back, thirty-one points could have been more, uh, five hundred and fifteen yards.
10:42
I think it was over six yards a play. So that Georgia Tech defense that we thought might have been so great against Florida State in the opener, uh, I think that was kind of a, uh,
10:50
a, a head fake there with now what we know about Florida State. So Louisville team total over thirty-four and a half. Welcome, Louisville. Welcome to college football.
10:56
Um, top five power ranked teams per the Bear on the way out are? In college football? Yes, sir. Ugh. I will say Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma. No, I'm sorry, Ohio State...
11:14
No, I, uh, Ohio State, Georgia. I'm not Oklahoma. Texas, Tennessee, Miami. I'm lo- I, I have a schedule looking in front of me. I'm, I'm, I'm losing my train of thought. Miami. Homer.
11:32
Have to be. Miami. What they've done so far, they've blown everybody else. I hear you. The U. T- uh, total, uh, student body, nineteen thousand plus we learned this week, Chris. Smaller than most people think.
11:43
Very, very, very small- Yeah... very small private school. Exactly. [laughs] Gotta run. Thank you, Chris. Fezzik on the other side on a Numbers Game.
11:58
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Got the secret barbecue place Take your betting to the next level by playing the ponies on First Bet. Not now, Steve, it's coming up.
12:06
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12:18
Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200. Head to firstbet.com today. Skill Alexander, Steve Fezzik s- [laughs] standing by. Couple tweets first, though.
12:31
Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the feedback. Uh, this is from Last Name Nash, "I'm sorry, but pickleball is for people who are too lazy to play a real court sport like tennis.
12:41
Willing to die on this hill with you, Gilly." Thank you, Last Name Nash. I feel very strongly about this subject, as they keep destroying tennis courts and putting in pickleball courts everywhere. Um, that was it?
12:53
Judd O'Connor, "Dr. Bob gave out, uh, Wazzu two weeks ago, praying for another easy winner this Saturday." I believe that Dr. Bob is undefeated on a numbers game this year.
13:03
Even Pitt came back with the, uh, miraculous Eli Holstein comeback, um, this past week.
13:09
So I think Bob is, at least on the show, I know he's not in, in real life, but on this show it's magic, and I don't think he's missed a play yet. We'll confirm that. So, uh, Wazzu was easy-peasy.
13:19
There's a, there's another tweet here that I wanna find here as I bring in, ladies and gentlemen, the great Steve Fezzik, the only, uh, back-to-back winner of the Hil- of the Hilton, pardon me, super contest back in the day.
13:29
Uh, it's still the 21st century when he won it. No, no jokes from everybody. I know some people are like, "Hey, wasn't that around the 20th cen-?" No, still this century.
13:36
Steve joins us now, not courtesy of the progressive guest line, but in studio. How you doing, man? So already one interruption. The great Todd Wischnev would be proud. [laughs] I got, we got a tweet.
13:46
You have to tell me if this is... I know we have a lot to talk about, but we got a tweet from Keith Kingston. Uh, and you have to tell me if this is true or not.
13:54
He says that the Stardust Invi- Stardust Invitational, early 2000s, Fezzik went in disguise? Is this a true story? True story. Wearing a Vikings jersey, who were at San Diego that week.
14:08
The Vikings were like 8 and 0, he says. San Diego was 0 and 8, catching five. Fezzik said, "You like the Vikings?" And then he rips off his shirt, throws it into the Stardust crowd watching, and says, "You can have 'em.
14:19
I'm going San Diego," gives his reasoning. San Diego not only covered, they won outright. Is that true? Yes. So you, that Stardust Invitation was a whole lot of fun. Mark Lawrence, uh, defeated me in one of the finals.
14:29
I was a two-time finalist, zero time champion. Oh. But, but it, this shows the vagaries of, of the industry. It's like 2004, all right? And I go 1-5 and 1, and I'm like immediately annihilated on, you know, social media.
14:44
But Ed Salmons, very sharp handicapper at the Westgate still- Mm-hmm... went 1 and 6. So I actually advance, survive and advance- [laughs]... the very next week. Yeah.
14:54
7 and 0, the only guy to do it other than Kevin O'Neill, who had done it before me. And so I never get to play that next week, if not for the Ed, the, the Ed Salmons collapse that week.
15:03
[laughs] Ed Salmons, we didn't even, we didn't mean to bring you up in that context- [laughs]... but there it is. Uh, Ed Salmons is very respected throughout the industry. Yes, absolutely. And so, yes.
15:11
By the way, uh, we have the, uh, the Matt Humans Invitational here, the Friday football, uh, invitational. You haven't been following the standings there at all, have you?
15:18
[laughs] I've been too busy to pay any attention. [laughs] So I think that's, that's available at VSiN if you wanna, you know, follow who might be ahead. Are you in first by any chance? Uh, coincidentally- [laughs]...
15:27
it's, well, we're only one- Not the-... one-eighth of the way in, but Not that you were aware. It, it, it's early though. It is. So. Oh, it's, it's hella early, as the kids say. Yes. Um, okay.
15:37
There's a couple other things. First of all, thank you for that note about the, uh, the Jets survivor thing. You're absolutely right.
15:42
If the percentage offshored as a gauge is 16% right now, that's obviously only the entries that have come in before Thursday, and as the rest of the balance of the entries, which is gonna be a majority of them come in before Sunday, that percentage is gonna reduce.
15:54
I w- I wanna bring this up with you, 'cause you famously said this week you think Survivor might not go the distance this year.
16:03
Yes, because basically my pricing is, is, is really simplistic, that I say every two weeks we lose half the field, okay? That's, it, it, if you have a, like a 70% chance of winning each and every week- Yeah...
16:14
obviously a 49% chance to win back-to-back weeks. So that would project that there would be maybe around five survivors, all right? However, I think that that is wildly optimistic. Hmm.
16:25
Given my power ratings, there's more parity in the NFL than there has ever been.
16:29
The best team in the NFL right now, K- Kansas City Chiefs, 49ers, so whoever you wanna put, they're like five points better than an average team.
16:38
Most years I have teams that are like seven or seven and a half points better, so there's no one who's really separated themselves, so it's gonna be very difficult to find 70% plays on average each and every week.
16:49
That, that's interesting. So this does not refute what you were saying. I put together this little thing. Derek, uh, I ran into Derek at the end, uh, of the show yesterday, and so this is just because this is the...
16:59
Through two weeks, it's the biggest percentage ever knocked out through, through, you know, in this early stage of the season.
17:05
But by number, right, because it's 14,266 entries, what you'll see in this, uh, in this graphic here is the percentages, the percentage of entries knocked out in each of the first two, uh, each of the first two weeks of the five years of Survivor.
17:19
And then to the right of that in parentheses are the number of entries that are left.
17:24
So even though, if you go to the bottom here, even though, uh, after week two, 72.8%, the record through two weeks of 2024 Circus Survivors are out, Circus Survivor entries are out, it still means that there are more entries singularly left, you know, after, um, excuse me, after, uh, r- at least right now, than there ever have been.
17:48
Now, we'll see if it gets below the 2917 from 2021 after week three, or the 2479 that were after week three, uh, that were left after week three last year.
17:58
But there's still, you know, and all of these previous ones have gotten to the end, right? They do, they never ended beforehand, um, in various forms. Sometimes it's five people, sometimes...
18:08
The, the first year it was like 35 people got to the end. Um, but I don't know. From a sheer entry standpoint-
18:15
I- if, if history is any indication, and I understand what you're saying 'cause that would be a difference, but if history's any indication, we probably do get to the end.
18:22
Yeah, and I still project we get to the end- Yeah... and we have a few winners. But just with five. W- yeah. Yeah.
18:26
And, and b- what's critical obviously is for me to be right that there's only gonna be a few winners, I'm gonna need one of the biggest favorites to go down. Yes. You know?
18:35
And, and that, th- that will wreak havoc later in the year, especially the Christmas and the, and the Thanksgiving weeks, that if you get, like, i- if Dallas loses to the Giants, whammo, there goes three-quarters- Right...
18:49
of the remainders. [laughs] Whammo. What game show was that? Whammo? [laughs] I think it was the, like, a Powerball. Oh, okay. I, I, I'm not sure. I thought it was some game show. Whammo.
18:57
Um, okay, like last week, so last week you came in here and you gave, that was before week two, you gave a pick for week three. Um, and you were, you were ahead of the line. Uh, remember the game?
19:08
It was Vikings- Vikings plus four... that's right... reduced vig. Yes.
19:11
So now the Vikings-Houston, everyone is debating, you know, "Wait a minute, Houston's, like, a one and a half, two-point favorite, you know, who do we like?" I, I, b- oh, do I have to pay you $40?
19:20
No, because I gave it out last week. That's right. There will be no fine, Will Hill. No fine. You just get, you just work on that Bet More Win More podcast of yours.
19:27
Um, so we got the [laughs] we got the plus four in pocket that we disclosed last week on Vikings. That's right. And now it's, but it's, now it's less than three. Okay, you have a similar thing for week four? Yes.
19:37
And so what's happening, the m- the scuttlebutt this week, a lot of people following Jordan Love, Green Bay, is he gonna play? Is he not gonna play? He's not playing. It's a fugazi- No... people. That's right.
19:47
We bet Tennessee, we're happy with Tennessee, that's a fine because the line's gone up. Okay, but I still would like Tennessee minus two and a half.
19:54
But the key here is that the fact that Love shows up at practice and is pretending to play makes it more likely he actually is gonna play.
20:02
Key division game next week, so forget week three, forget Green Bay week three, let's look to Green Bay week four, where we are gonna go against the Vikings.
20:10
Now we're gonna take the Packers, huge home field, at home minus two and a half, and bonus play, we're gonna play over 42 and a half. Oh. These are both available at DraftKings and at BetRivers as we speak right now.
20:22
I've already bet substantially on this myself. I bet it over at the Westgate.
20:26
Um, and I would be very, I'd be shocked if Love didn't play week four, so we're, uh, we're gonna get on this before the line goes up above three, and we're gonna lay two and a half and over 42 and a half.
20:37
That's the working assumption, that Jordan Love will be playing next week. And if Jordan Love doesn't play next week, then all this is- Then I have bad bets... terrible advice. But I believe- Yeah... 90% Love will play.
20:47
Okay. 90%. And yeah, it was, and it was never really gonna happen this week either. E- exactly.
20:51
Um- And, and I'm the guy that was screaming, p- well, literally I was doing a live show, and money started, I really think, like, a- and this happens to me in the NBA, where I'm not, like, living and breathing it, and I see, "Oh, LeBron James has been upgra- upgraded to, you know, to questionable," I'm like, "Oh, quick, bet the Lakers, bet the Lakers."
21:07
That's what happened with the odds screens, and I was like, "This is a fugazi. He's not playing," you know? Yeah.
21:12
And yet all these money, the B bettors are betting plus two and a half on, on Green Bay this week against Tennessee when they could be getting three at post. What are you, what is your Circa Millions record right now?
21:23
Um, I have five entries, and the best one's five, four, and one. I think the worst one is three and seven. Oh, a slow start for Fezz. Impossible to do well in Circa Millions.
21:33
I think the consensus is one and nine, so if you play good numbers, you are not gonna be doing well. Uh, by contrast, in the Westgate contest I've got a couple entries seven and three. Oh. Most of them six and four.
21:44
And, and, and why have I done better? Just because the way that they've shaded their numbers has been much more favorable to a guy like me that won't play a bad number in a contest.
21:53
And we said this last week, that your strategy of the way that you play, and again, for those who missed it, Steve is really looking to play the n- you're always looking to get the best of the number, not only in real life, but in these contests, and you play it in a way, uh, that has more often than not gotten you to be very competitive.
22:12
You want to, obviously. But last year you finished a dismal 24th, was it? 21st. 21st. Even worse, uh, last year. Faded miserably down- That's right... the stretch, picking 50% the final- Yeah... four weeks.
22:23
But it doesn't always work, right? There are some years where the best of it number-wise doesn't manifest. Absolutely, 100%. They have to do their job too.
22:32
So, uh, when we come back, more with Fezzik, um, including why he feels so strongly about the Chargers this week. Get his entire dissertation on this on the other side.
22:44
Steve Fezzik on A Numbers Game at Vici- Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSEN, the Sports Betting Network. Back on A Numbers Game on a football Friday, where sports betting lives.
22:59
Gil Alexander live from Circa Sports Resort Casino. It's a resort/casino. We get tweets at Beat of the Book, Xspurt, X_spurt. That guy says, "Mr. Fezzik looks harmless on video.
23:13
I sense that is possibly a mistaken- [laughs]... a mistaken first impression."
23:17
Here's the thing with Stevie, he is harmless, except if he senses a, uh, an edge he needs to exploit anywhere on planet Earth, he cannot physically restrain himself. Is that a good description of you?
23:27
And just to double down on that- Yes... if I feel I've been wronged- Oh, yeah... by a sportsbook- Then he's hell... they are in my crosshairs- Then he's hell...
23:35
and I will do anything imaginable to, to, like, get blood out of a turnip- He's a hellish-... to crush that book... hellish human being at that point. Yes.
23:43
3Jack H3131, "Gil, wait, you said Bob's not undefeated in real life? So it's the show being run in a parallel fake life universe?
23:51
Is that why Paul Spohrer went 57 and one, [laughs] 57 and one on the show, but hardly anyone knew it? Now I have to listen to Fezzik. Too much for a Friday." [laughs] Yes.
24:00
We had, we had, we had Spohrer on the other day, and Kelly and I were both, well, this was last week we had Spohrer on, and people were, like, tweeting, like, "Wow, Spohrer was 6 and 0 on the show."
24:08
And Kelly and I were like, "Were we here?" Like, "When did this happen?" But- I feel bad. All Spohrer does is win, but he gives out so many soccer plays.
24:14
I'm so lazy, I don't know what, you, you know, what league these teams play in, so I don't even bother betting them because it, I have to navigate through my [laughs] you know, I mean, I'm in the wrong league.
24:22
You mean, you mean Paul Carr. Wrong Paul you're talking about. Oh, even worse. You're talking about Baseball Spohrer. Even worse. Uh, David Newell, "If we're talking about who- [laughs]...
24:29
if we're talking about who was on Showha first, I pulled a Bird move and drafted him for a dollar with my last pick in my fantasy league when he was still in Japan."
24:37
That is a total Red Auerbach drafting Larry Bird maneuver a year in advance. Good job, David- Mm... Newell. You win.
24:44
Keno Walker, "Uh, since Kelly brought up the commercial conversation, the Bill 80 commercial has to be top 10. Love it." He's referring, uh, Keno is, to the Bill 80, uh, what's, what's Brent's words?
24:55
"Bill's late nights become your mornings," that kind of thing. Then and only then can the writing begin. [laughs] And where Kelly, Kelly overacts. He nods, like really, uh, it's a great commercial.
25:05
And finally, Doug Boyle, "Our survivor pool," which is run by one of your VSIN staff, is somebody here running a, uh, a rogue survivor pool? "Has already ended.
25:14
Started with 46, and after this past week it was down to two players who decided to cut the pot." Really? They cut a 46-player pot? "We already started Survivor 2 with 42 players. Crazy season." There you go. Okay.
25:26
Um, before we get to your, uh, your Chargers dissertation here, why you like them so much this week, and maybe, and by the way, maybe I don't know, maybe it's a teaser leg. Is it a teaser or a side?
25:34
It's, it's, it's the teaser leg. Okay. It's the teaser leg. We'll get to that. But you, uh, you, Steve makes outlandish comments.
25:39
He comes on the show and it's like he invented the question mark, to quote the old Austin Powers line.
25:43
Uh, but you, you take credit for saying pre-flop first, which I've been saying for years, but you're taking credit for you said it, pre-flop. I've been saying it for decades. Decades wins.
25:52
[laughs] I have not been saying it for decades. So pre-flop as a, as, uh, applied to sports betting, obviously it's a poker term. Um, but you, you want to now go on record and coin another phrase. Yeah.
26:03
So we're all familiar with CMOs, collateralized mortgage options. I don't think we all are, but some are, yes. Go see The Big Short, fantastic movie talking about that. Oh, great book, great movie.
26:13
So collater- CSOs, collateralized survivor options. Explain. So everyone who's still alive in Circus Survivor has right now a entry that's worth about $3,700, all right?
26:25
And so they, they quantify the value, and of course some are worth a little bit more or a little bit less depending upon whether you've got a good path or a bad path, et cetera.
26:33
But as we go deeper and deeper, they become worth 10,000, 50,000, and so we start swapping.
26:38
So one of the best ways to, um, uh, if you have a survivor and it's all your own, let's say Gilly has a survivor and I have a survivor, it's like, "I'll do a swap. I'll give you 10% of mine, you give me 10% of yours."
26:50
Mm-hmm. And then we start selling shares of them. These are CSO options, and then people sell options on the options. I get options, I sell them to Bill.
26:58
Bill Crack Man sells, sells them to me, and it's like this Big Short where all these different, like CMOs, CSOs are being traded back and forth and, and you lose, lose track of what the liabilities and the assets are.
27:08
What's the fine? If any, if I hear anybody else say collater- collateralized survivor options, which by the way, I don't know if that's gonna catch on, Stevie, to be honest with you, but if I do hear it, what's the fine?
27:17
So we're gonna stop with the fines and we're gonna go with royalties. [laughs] Oh, okay. I like it. So what we're looking for is royalties- Okay... moving forward. Smart.
27:25
All right, Chargers teaser leg, why do you love it so? All right. So it checks all the boxes.
27:30
So you've got the long teaser, that's where we take a plus two, plus or minus a half, so a plus one half, a plus two, a plus two and a half. We take a plus one half up to plus seven half. We already like that. All right?
27:41
By the way, you're gonna play a six-point teaser, you gotta be playing at minus 120. Can't be laying more than that in Vegas. The teasers are done-zo.
27:48
Every single book now charges more than minus 120, so you have to play it at places like DraftKings or BookMaker or a place like that, that still has the good pricing. Here's why I really like it.
27:57
I love the West Coast team that has the kumbaya trip back east. So the Niners famously have done this several times. They, one time they s- I think they spent a week at the Greenbrier in West Virginia. Yes, yes.
28:09
They spent a week in Ohio where they just pounded the two Ohio teams, and it just seems to make so much sense that to avoid all the distractions and just have that week.
28:18
Now you don't have the, the excessive travel, and everyone can focus in North Carolina and then go to Pittsburgh. So because of that, it's very rare that a team would lay an egg in that situation.
28:29
Further, I really like the low total, being right around 36, and so because of that, I expect a lower scoring game, and I love the way the Steelers are winning. Not with offense, run the ball, play really good defense.
28:41
They get a touchdown, that should be sufficient, not necessary to win the game. So bottom line is, I don't know who's gonna win this game.
28:48
I don't love the Chargers, but I love the final score in this game to be 20 to 17. Yeah. And who cares who wins? Let's tease the Chargers. Steelers 2 and 0 with one touchdown, to your point.
28:59
Um, okay, totally understand all of that, but you need a dance partner for a teaser leg. Who might that be with? Now there's the rub, isn't it now? Yes, yes. So [laughs] um- Yeah...
29:08
and you know, I'm gonna use the Bengals for my survivor, more than likely, my sole survivor. And- How many, how many did you start with? Seven. [laughs] So- Oh, man... maybe I'm not the guy to be asking about that. Yeah.
29:20
Um, so why not just shove all my chips in with the Bengals? Shove. But the, but the nice thing about that is because the Bengals game is Monday night, so you can earn off of it.
29:28
So you c- c- you can put the Bengals in at, at your second leg, and then right before kickoff, assuming the Chargers don't Charger me, but you know, when Chargers Charger, they oftentimes, I know they lost by 40 to the Raiders, but the Chargers used to lose a lot of close games, maybe not so much with Harbaugh, but as long as you get the first leg of the teaser in, now similar to these CSOs, we can just earn off of it because then we can play some Washington plus seven and a half, and we can go ahead and play a little money line with Washington and lock in a profit.
29:58
And w- in those situations where one teaser, one of the teaser legs is hit and you, and you then can make a decision, what percentage of time do you actually manipulate, would you say? It depends what my numbers say.
30:07
Yeah. So I actually only make the Bengals a seven-point favorite, but my gut says no way Burrow and company are going 0 and three. Mine too. They're going to find a way to win. Mine too.
30:16
Washington can't score touchdowns, and so because of that- [laughs]... um, I, it's a rare case where I like the Bengal teaser, but I actually would look towards Washington plus seven and a half or more.
30:27
Let me, uh, ax you this another way. What long teaser leg scares you this week? Oh, wow. Um, you know, I gotta be honest, all of the Wongs scare me, and here's why. Hmm. Back when...
30:40
So, and some people still, there are still minus one 10 pricing out there. Your edge is razor thin, minus 120. If you play every Wong teaser... And by the way,
30:48
I've been hearing more and more people misquoting Wong teaser. A s- a seven-point favorite is not a Wong teaser. It has to be a seven and a half point favorite. That's right.
30:56
A six and a half point favorite is absolutely not a Wong teaser, and a road favorite is not a Wong teaser ever. Ever. All right? Ever. It has to be a home favorite.
31:05
It has to be minus seven and a half to minus eight and a half. But because of the razor-thin edge that, that you have at minus 120, they all scare me, and frankly,
31:14
it was a huge part of my portfolio when I could lay minus 110 on teasers. Now it's a very minor part- Well-... of my portfolio because of that...
31:21
because, again, the, the higher the juice, the more your break-even percentage, the higher your break-even percentage is, so it just gets- You're actually laying-... more and more difficult. Yeah...
31:28
on each leg minus 280. So like, like, like, let's say you teased the Jets last night. Congratulations, you won, uh, but you actually lost, and here's why.
31:36
Because you, if you played a six-point teaser on the Jets minus 280, or minus 120, you really bet, if you bet $2,800 on the Jets, let's assume that was what your, your bet was, you just won $1,000.
31:48
And you're like, "Well, wait, Steve, I, I don't know if I won or lost. I, wait for my second leg." No, it really doesn't.
31:53
You really have collateralized a $1,000 win, and now you're risking 3,800 on the next leg on whoever you chose.
31:59
So my, where I'm going is you could have just played the money line at less than minus 280, an equivalent bet, Jets had to win- [laughs]... and made more money. I'm sorry. I didn't warn you there was gonna be math.
32:09
Danger- Sorry. Sorry... danger, Will Robinson, math. Uh, before you go, and we always love your appearances here, before you go, are you willing to share a side that you, uh, love above all this week?
32:18
You know, I went, just went through all my numbers, and there's only one that my numbers disagree with. So I like the Eagles. It's trending to three. Ooh. So obviously let's get three.
32:26
Might have to lay a dollar 20 and grade me plus three minus 120. This is the one game, look at the season wins for both these teams. I know A.J. Brown is injured, all right? Mm-hmm.
32:34
But Philly is one and one, New Orleans is two and O, and everyone's like, "Well, New Orleans is better than Philly," but the market doesn't believe that because the season win number, you can bet this today, Philly is 10.75, meaning 10 and a half, deuce to the over.
32:46
New Orleans is 10 and a half, deuce to the under. So the market is emphatically saying Philly is not just better, but they're significantly better than New Orleans.
32:55
Now, maybe without their number one wide receiver, maybe the teams are, are, are almost equal, but I, it would still point to Philly being the better team.
33:02
Catching three, I know it's a huge home field in New Orleans, and that's a concern, but catching three in a good bounce-back spot with everyone second guessing your coaching staff, I have to take Philly.
33:13
We'll, we'll work on your pronunciation of New Orleans, but other than that, I understand- [laughs]... everything you're saying. Well, so, so there it is.
33:19
So Philadelphia, the one side that you love, and really beyond that, you don't love anything. That's right. Yeah. I'm kind of the same way in terms of just the, the overall scope.
33:27
Steve Fezzik, everybody, @FezzikSports on Twitter. Try not to, uh, judge him for how he acts on Twitter. Thank you, sir, as always. That's Voldemort. That's Voldemort Fezzik.
33:36
[laughs] That's a different, that's a different person. Steve Fezzik on the show. Dr. Bob on the other side with his college football plays undefeated on the show next.
33:44
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, don't forget at the top of the hour right after our numbers game, money moves. [clears throat] Pardon me.
34:00
That's Money Moves with Patrick Maher today filling in for Stormy. Patrick and Mike Somich. Maher, Somich, good show. Noon Eastern, noon to 2:00, uh, Money Moves today. Again, Patrick Maher and Mike Somich.
34:13
Then stick around for Prop Points with John Hanson at 2:00 PM. He's on for an hour, and then Make It Rain with Adam Shine, 3:00 PM Eastern. That's before Follow the Money right here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:26
Hey, Gil Alexander, real quick, just a couple more, uh, tweets here before we get to Bobby. Uh, this is from ScreamingASmith @LanceManCrush.
34:33
He says, "Watching live right now while visiting my daughter and grandchild in Napoli, Italy." Ah, Naples. Napoli. "Love the show," in capitals. Thank you, and appreciate that you, uh, took us with you to Italy.
34:46
And then, uh, Spence says, "I'm tailing Steve's bets this week and will now refer to the home of the next Super Bowl as New Orleans." Yes. You don't have to pronounce it correct to, uh, tail his bets.
34:56
Uh, always a pleasure to have him on, and it's always a pleasure to have this gentleman on, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He is undefeated on this show this year.
35:05
He is, uh, a cool five and O on the show, but if you wanna go beyond just the five and O, he is 111, 79 and two all time on football plays here on A Numbers Game. It is the great Dr.
35:18
Bob, everybody, @DrBobSports.com and @DrBobSports on Twitter. How you doing, Bob? I'm doing good. You know, uh, the v- the, the, the Gil good luck factor is back. I had a losing week last week.
35:29
It was my first [laughs] losing week, and I was two and O on the games I gave on, on your show, so I, uh, the luck is back, and- It-... I'm happy to be on... it is magic. I appreciate it. We all appreciate it.
35:40
Before we get to your college football plays, and you have a couple coming up, uh, you are in two survivor pools, I believe, or you have two entries in one. I'm not sure. What did you end up- Yeah... picking this week?
35:50
Yeah, yeah, I used the Jets last night and won.
35:52
In that particular, uh, pool, I had New Orleans week one and Seattle week two, and in the other one I had Seattle week one and the Chargers last week, and in that one I was tossed up between Tampa Bay and Cleveland.
36:03
So far I've got Tampa Bay in. I could still change it actually, um, but I'm also considering Cleveland, so I think those would be the, my, my, my choices for Sunday.
36:11
I am torn between Cleveland and Cincinnati, and again I'll just, for the last time this week I'll, I'll tell you my thinking.
36:18
Cleveland is the right pick because it's probably the most natural place to play Cleveland- Right...
36:24
in the same way that New Orleans was the most natural, the most natural place to play New Orleans was against Carolina week one, but Cincinnati makes me feel more confident You, you like Cleveland better.
36:36
I could buy that. Oh, no, you, you said you could buy that. No, I could buy it. It's just that Ci- Cincinnati has a tendency to let up against bad teams. Oh. Especially...
36:43
Yeah, it's just they're, they're pretty good off a loss, though, and they did lose, but last week was a huge emotional game for them against Kansas City,
36:52
and, you know, they had an, eh, they have an extra day to kind of get their shit together. But Cincinnati's just one of those teams that just the better the opponent, the better they play.
37:01
Um, so it just made me a little bit wary, and there'll be other chances to play Cincinnati. So I think, you know, I think you're right that Cleveland is probably...
37:08
I'm gonna revisit it 'cause there's no other spot to really play Cleveland. Um, I'm gonna look between, between Cleveland and Tampa. All right. Two things, Bob. First of all- Uh-huh... not the Megapod, um, okay?
37:19
Secondly, uh, you [laughs] let's go to, let's go to college football. Ole Miss, uh, love when you have a Lane Kiffin bet because as we know, this man has no morals and no ethics when it comes to running up the score.
37:33
You are on Ole Miss laying a heavy amount of wood in this game? Yeah, I, I don't think I've lost Lane, big numbers with Lane Kiffin at Mississippi. [laughs] Uh, it's the Lane Kiffin, uh, trend.
37:45
Um, yeah, they're 3-0 against the number. They're beating teams by an average of 53 points. Nothing fluky about that.
37:52
They're averaging nearly 700 yards of offense a game, and the stats would project a 54-point scoring margin, so there's no fluky, nothing fluky about their 3-0 spread start.
38:03
Uh, Georgia Southern's 3-0 against the spread, but there's a major difference 'cause they should be probably 0-3 against the spread.
38:10
They've beaten teams by an average of 6.7 points, barely covered the spread in all three games they've played. But they were outgained by, uh, what? 100, um, nearly 200 yards against, uh,
38:24
for the season so far, 128 yards on average. They were destroyed by Boise State and managed to cover the spread in that one somehow. They were outgained against, um, Nevada and, and, and somehow managed to win that game.
38:40
They were outgained by nearly 200 yards in that game and somehow managed to win that game, and they shouldn't have covered the spread in their other game either.
38:47
They've, they've, uh, been lucky to cover the spread in all three of their games so far, and they're giving up, uh, their defense is horrible.
38:55
Um, they're giving up a ton of yards, 7.1 yards per play, to teams that would normally average 5.1 yards per play against an average team, and now they're facing maybe the best offense, one of the two or three best offenses in the nation.
39:08
I just think Mississippi could score on every single possession if they wanted to.
39:12
Georgia Southern is the worst defense they've faced other than the FCS team they played, and there's an argument that they're, that Georgia Southern's worse than that team.
39:22
Um, what I like here is that my pre, my preseason ratings, my priors would have favored Mississippi by 35.3 points, so I think the line at the very least is fair.
39:30
I think Mississippi is better than my prior, um, and it's 'cause their defense has been so much better, and I think Georgia Southern's been worse than my priors.
39:39
Um, and if you use this year's games only, it gets the Rebels by 51 points on the math, um, and I think the line should be around 44 points, um, right now.
39:49
Um, you got one team that's over, that's 3-0 and deserves it, one team that's 0-3 against the spread and doesn't deserve it, and Lane Kiffin, you know, just likes to run up the score.
39:57
He's 13 and five against the number laying 13 or more. Five and one against the number in non-conference games, favored by 30 or more, winning those games by an average of 53 points while laying an average of 39.
40:07
So he doesn't mind running it up, and I think the spread should be higher. So I think Mississippi minus 37 are better, but you can get 35 right now. Okay. Laying 35 is what I'm seeing. So, uh, what was the number again?
40:18
What are the parameters? What did you just say? Up to? Up to 37. Up to 37 on Ole Miss, uh, taking on Georgia Southern. Now, this one is much more tightly lined.
40:28
It's the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs by three over Tulsa, and you like the favorite here. Yeah, I had Louisiana Tech as a three-star win total bet before the season. I think I gave that one out on this show, actually.
40:40
Um, the big change at Louisiana Tech was getting a defensive coordinator named Jeremiah Johnson who came over from Northern Iowa.
40:46
His defenses at Northern Iowa have consistently been among the best at the FCS level and usually rate as better than an average FBS defense after adjusting for, for opponents.
40:56
Um, that three, three-three-five defensive scheme is really good at defending the run, and his teams have been better than an average FBS team defending the run in all 16 years he's been a defensive coordinator, including last year giving up just 4.0 yards per play at Northern Iowa to teams that would average 4.8 if they were facing an average FBS school.
41:16
Um, the, the thing that makes this interesting is J- is Johnson actually went to Kent State for a year.
41:20
He left Northern Iowa to go to Kent State, and Kent State's always been horrible in run defense, but the year he was there, they were actually better than average on a national scale, while Northern Iowa slipped to being more than one yard per play worse the year he was not there.
41:33
Kent State's coaching staff got fired. Johnson went back to Northern Iowa. Their defense improved by nearly a yard per play after he came back, and Kent State's defense went back to being horrible again.
41:43
This guy does make a difference. Now, this year he's at Louisiana Tech, and the run defense there is very good. They've just allowed 3.9 yards per rushing play in two games.
41:52
They held ACC team NC State to 4.4 yards per rushing play last week. Were in that game the entire way, ended up losing by 10, um, but they averaged 6.1 yards per play and only gave up 5.3 yards per play to the Wolfpack.
42:06
So they outplayed NC State last week, and I think they're still underrated. The one game that made me feel like, oh, they only beat Nicholls State by eight, but they dominated that game.
42:14
They averaged 5.3 yards per play and allowed just 3.2 yards per play. They were minus four in turnovers, which was the only reason that game against Nicholls State was close. That's the same Nicholls State team.
42:24
They outgained them by 2.1 yards per play. The next week, Nicholls State went to LSU, and LSU only outgained them by 0.9 yards per play, so they, they were relatively better against Nicholls than LSU was.
42:35
I just think this Louisiana Tech team is underrated. They've got a good quarterback. Tulsa cannot stop the pass.
42:40
They gave up 9.3 yards per pass play to Arkansas State and Oklahoma State, um, and, and but I don't think they'll be able to run the ball, but I think Louisiana Tech's coaching staff is like, "Fine, we'll just throw the ball," which they'll be able to do in this game.
42:52
Uh, my preseason ratings would have favored Louisiana Tech by eight, and I think it should be even more now. So, uh, minus three, I'll, I'll take that. Um, so Louisiana Tech minus the points against Tulsa. All right.
43:02
Uh, Ole Miss minus 35 in their game against Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech minus three against Tulsa. Bob, appreciate it. PG-13 next time, okay? Appreciate it. All right. My man. All right. Dr.
43:13
Bob, everybody, @DRBobSports. Note to self, have talk with all of our guests. This is get- it's become an epidemic with Velica and, uh, and Dr. Bob at back-to-back weeks.
43:24
Um, okay, those are your two college football plays from Bob. He is trying to go 7-0, 7-0 on the show in this young season in college football thus far. Uh, hope you got on the tennis play of Laura Siegemund.
43:37
She is up a set and a break over Rebecca Marija Šarova, so the tennis, uh, winners keep on coming in.
43:43
Again, subscribers, every sport, college football, pro football, but also other sports like tennis and golf and everything else, all of those picks from every host, guest, and every sport at vsin.com/picks for subscribers.
43:57
Check that out. And of course, the tennis play tonight is Diana Shnaider against Marta Kostyuk. That is the one remaining tennis play. I'll probably add some more tonight for subscribers as well.
44:09
Uh, we've done all we can do on a football Friday. Again, money moves coming up. Today it's the great Patrick Maher in for Stormy. Stormy's got her football assignment, so she's gotta travel.
44:19
It is Patrick and Mike Somich. Good show on the way right after the break right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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