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Sep 24, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 24, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 24, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. For all those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
There's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midlin who joins us as well.
0:23
Always alongside, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Uh, Kelly, good morning, sir. How are you? I'm doing okay, buddy. How you, how are you? [laughs] Doing fine. Doing great.
0:33
Hey, uh, well, Kelly, well, by the way, on the show today, we should probably mention, Drew Dincic is gonna join us. Drew was off last week, uh, you know, traveling the Greek islands or something like that.
0:42
Uh, we'll get Drew back. Will Hill will be here later to, uh, give us all his bets, and then Paul Spohrer, Major League Baseball.
0:47
We gotta talk final stretch of the Major League Baseball season, which is getting tighter and tighter, uh, in terms of the, uh, final wildcard positions in both the American League and the National League now.
0:58
Uh, we'll get into all that, but we must start, uh, not only with the two games last night in the NFL, both Monday night games, but we have to start with Circus Survivor.
1:06
Um, sadly, this is what happens every year, at least once. Hit it. I'm a survivor. [record scratches] There you go. I'm out. I'm out. Well done, by the way, Darnell. Yeah. Um- Darnell, real- really DJing back there.
1:18
I- I didn't even edit any of that together. [laughs] I just gave him a couple d- uh, different clips. I just wanna say this, 'cause people were nice last night on Twitter.
1:25
They're like, "Oh, sorry you're out of Survivor." I am, I am not special. Um, first of all, if you're gonna lose Survivor, you wanna do it one of two ways. One, you didn't even consider another option that would've won.
1:36
Right. [laughs] Yeah. And that, and that is me. I- there was nothing I considered that actually won this week, so I would've been out every which way. And two, uh, the team you grew up loving ends up putting you out.
1:45
They were fantastic, and you have a Rookie of the Year bet on the quarterback, Jayden Daniels. So all that is good, but I just wanna point out these Circus Survivor stats.
1:53
Uh, there's a few things I wanna bring attention to. One, which is not pictured on the screen as we, as we throw up this graphic, but Kelly, just this week alone, 83...
2:02
So I'm talking about heading into week three, and then what resulted after week three. This is not on the, on the screen.
2:09
83.44% of entries were knocked out just this week alone, of what existed before week three and what has resulted after week three. 83.44% of the remaining entries were out in this week alone.
2:21
But as far as the week th- uh, the three-week arc of Circus Survivor, I wanna call your attention to a few numbers there on the screen. One, 95.5% are out after three weeks.
2:36
That means out of 14,266 entries that began this, only 642 are left. [laughs] 95.5% are gone. You see the comparisons from the previous four years of Circus Survivor.
2:49
Kelly, there never has been and there never will be another season where 95.5% are gone after three weeks. It's insane. It's unbelievable.
3:00
By the way, the Cincinnati Bengals, the biggest culprit of all this, they alone have knocked out almost 6,000 total entries- [laughs] That's incredible... just by themselves.
3:09
New England week one, and now Washington week three. 988, by the way, against Washington.
3:14
If we can throw that graphic up one more time, because there is one other number I wanna call attention to, which is the, uh, not, not that one, guys, the, uh, the old circle one.
3:21
The, in the first year of Circus Survivor, the pandemic year, only 1,390 entered. 675 were left after week three. Guess how many, again, 642
3:34
left, meaning are still alive, this year when there were 14,000-plus entries. [laughs] That's crazy.
3:40
So there are fewer entries left after week three this year with over 10 times, oh, no, it's like 11 times the number of entries. It's incredible. It's absolute carnage. And as for the games last...
3:53
And by the way, congratulations to all that are still alive, with 642 entries, uh, if you're part of that. Yeah. Um, good on you. Most of that's from betting, from, uh, picking the Jets on Thursday night.
4:02
So good on you, and this should be fantastic. Who knows if this kind of carnage will continue, or if now we'll get into a streak where barely anything happens. I'll tell- But it's just been incredible...
4:10
one of the other crazy parts of that, of that graphic, just watching how, how, really in front of your eyes, how, uh, how much this contest continues to grow every year. Well- It's incredible...
4:19
you know, someone asked, I don't know if it was on Twitter or someone asked me on text yesterday, "Do you think the record carnage will make the contest now go in the other direction, that people will be dissuaded from playing it?"
4:32
Great question. And- I don't think so... it's a great question, and my answer was, "Not a chance in hell." [laughs] Yeah. Um- Yeah... it, it is just going to grow and grow and grow.
4:40
By the way, the intrinsic value of each of those remaining 642 entries is- Oh, don't say it, Gil... boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, $22,221.18 after three weeks. Oh, man.
4:57
As far as the games last night, uh, Buffalo Bills fans, man, you got me last night. You look great. Uh, I, it, it's gonna be interesting to ask the question about the four teams last night, like what's the biggest story?
5:08
But Buffalo just absolutely destroys the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game that was over, I don't know, almost around the time that the Washington-Cincinnati game started. 47 to 10.
5:21
Josh Allen is now number one in total QBR. He's number one in passer rating. He's number one in EPA per play for quarterbacks. He's number one everywhere. He's your MVP through three weeks.
5:33
Uh, four touchdowns for Josh Allen yesterday, and the Jaguars now, uh, 0 and 3 on the season. We have three 0 and 3 teams, right?
5:43
Jacksonville, Tennessee, and the Cincinnati Bengals, as, as they prevent Tennessee from winning that market. Trevor Lawrence now 0 and 8 in his last eight starts as the Jaguars quarterback. Jeez.
5:56
This was a guy, when I used to ask him, right on the lead-up to the draft and right after the draft when he was drafted, "Is he generational?" Before I could even finish the sentence, "Yes," I was told. No, he's not.
6:08
Um, he just isn't. And so the bigger question is Bills great, Jacksonville bad? Bills will definitely be in my top 10, uh, power rankings this week, I'll tell you that much. Um, so good on them.
6:19
And then- It's definitely a bit of both, too. It's definitely a bit of both. Like, I mean, like, it, uh, it almost always is. Yeah.
6:23
But I think, like, clearly in that game, like yeah, it, Buffalo's even better than I thought they were gonna be. And, uh, nobody loves Josh Allen more than me. Yeah.
6:30
Listen, Bills Mafia, if you hate on me anymore, that means you hate Jesse Pagula, so stop.
6:33
[laughs] Now, as far as the other game, uh, the, the one that knocked out so many of us in Survivor, Washington, Cincinnati, the first game since 1940 with no turnovers and no punts. That's wild. Skins win 38-33.
6:50
Jayden Daniels, 21 of 23 for 254. 12 carries, 39 yards, three total touchdowns. It's the highest percentage, highest completion percentage, minimum 20 attempts, for a rookie in NFL history.
7:04
The second-high, by the way, that's the, uh, that's the 21 of 23, right, which is, uh, above 91%.
7:11
It's the second-highest completion rate through three games in NFL history for any quarterback, minimum 50 attempts, at 80.3%.
7:21
Only Drew Brees at 80.6% completion rate in 2018 was, has been better than Jayden Daniels' completion rate the first three weeks of the season. But it's so much more than the completion rate.
7:32
And for those of us who are, who grew up on this franchise, this is the, the most exciting we've been, the most excited we've been since RG III.
7:39
Um, the great rookie season of RG III, obviously injuries took care of that for Washington fans. But, you know, the Bengals went up, just like your Brownies in Survivor went up 7-0, Bengals go up 7-0, and then
7:53
fourth and two, this was the, you know, three fourth down conversions, three of three for Washington and Jayden Daniels last night.
7:59
The fourth and two on that, uh, first drive of the game where he went to McCaffrey, Luke McCaffrey, for 30. That led to a, uh, game-tying score.
8:08
Later, uh, when it was 14 to 10, he has been introduced to the incomparable Terry McLaurin, ladies and gentlemen. McLaurin for 55, what a pass. That set up Daniels in from four himself. That gave Washington a 21-10 lead.
8:23
Um, and then later there was a fourth down conversion on a field goal drive, uh, where Daniels did it with his legs.
8:28
But the biggest of all, of course, the third and final of the fourth down conversions, fourth and four, Washington's up 31 to 26 late in this ballgame.
8:37
Um, fourth and four at the Cincinnati 39 with just four minutes, 25 seconds left to go in this ballgame.
8:44
Daniels to Zach Ertz for nine, and then three plays later at the Cincinnati 27, Daniels, with his face about to get destroyed, throws it up to Terry McLaurin, the incomparable Terry McLaurin.
8:56
If you've listened to this show for, uh, all the years that McLaurin has been a Washington Redskin, you know that, uh, this guy is, this guy's my favorite Skin since RG III. He is...
9:06
I will take him over every wide receiver, period, what he brings to a franchise.
9:11
Uh, touchdown on a pass that we, we have the, uh, by the way, this is [laughs] Bill Barnwell saying, "This is where Terry McLaurin was when Jayden Daniels threw that ball. What a game." There's a graphic. Look at this.
9:23
Uh, you, it's, if it's too small on your screen, this is where Jayden Daniels let go of the football. McLaurin is just getting past the 20-yard line.
9:32
Uh, Next Gen Stats had the success rate, the, the success probability of that play being just over 10%. An unbelievable pass, an unbelievable catch as McLaurin gets the knee down. Um, and
9:48
Cincinnati did have a touchdown after that to make it a, uh, five-point margin, and the, uh, they had to declare, they did declare the onside kick. That did not work. And Washington wins it.
9:57
But my goodness, hope springs eternal now for the co-leaders in the NFC East, the Washington Commodores. So we have now, in those four games last night, what's the biggest story, Kelly?
10:09
Is it the ama- the, uh, you know, the Washington hope with Jayden Daniels? Is it Buffalo just being that good with the, you know, the presu- after three weeks, the presumptive MVP anyway in Josh Allen?
10:21
Um, or is it the futility of the Jaguars and the Bengals, the Bengals who you and I had both winning the division? Yep. And I don't know what's the biggest story of those four. Yeah.
10:31
W- w- I also saw, also saw the way, uh, th- Cincinnati with the best, uh, offensive game of the season last night. [laughs] Yes, yes. Uh, analytically, statistically.
10:41
Um, so yeah, it's, uh, I, I mean, it's got, it's gotta be Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. Uh, specifically Jayden Daniels, I, I think, is the story of those four.
10:50
I have been, I have been saying all three of these weeks, what was my comment about him? He's so comfortable, almost too comfortable, I said, right? Mm.
10:58
And he does l- he does lull you into this sense of is, is he almost, is he, so easy for him, like this can't be a good thing, right? He was great at ASU. He was obviously great at LSU.
11:10
Uh, he has been great through three weeks. It's early, but Jayden Daniels now your short shot to win- It's-... Offensive Rookie of the Year at plus 150. Yeah. A- and I think rightfully so.
11:17
Him plus 150, Nabers plus 250, Harrison plus 350, I think those all make sense right there. I, it's- But he's a quarterback, so it should be- Right... yeah, it should be a bigger gap than that. Yeah, absol- I agree.
11:27
Um, the, I mean, I think the other thing to keep in mind is wild with some of these results is look at some of the defenses that the Bills and Commanders have played against. Like, it's pretty bad.
11:36
The Washington Commanders, the last two games under Jayden Daniels, no, no punts. None. Haven't you trusted him? They've never been stopped. Not a single turnover for Daniels yet this year.
11:48
Coming back with Drew Dincic next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game. Un partido de numeros for those listening in Spanish.
12:04
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell from Circa. Let's get to your tweets. What do y'all have to say? Always appreciate the tweets. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Uh, best listeners in the game.
12:14
Uh, Drew Dincic standing by, by the way. StatMuse, uh, Josh Allen at halftime was 22 of 28 for 247, four touchdowns in 18 minutes. Not bad. Not too bad.
12:24
By the way, there was a point in that game where early where it was, it was 14 to nothing, and the, uh, Jags had one yard.
12:29
Sports odds history, the largest NFL favorite of the week has lost outright in each of the first three weeks. There it is, Cincinnati, the culprit in weeks one and three.
12:37
Obviously Baltimore getting a lot of people in survivor in week two. 2001 was the last time the largest favorite of the week lost outright in three straight weeks within the same season. How about that?
12:46
Thank you Blake from Sports Odds History, or as we like to call him, Blockay. Blockay. This is from Circa themselves. These are the stats that I was pointing out earlier.
12:54
Guys, let's go to the, uh, tweets that I had, uh, prior to, if you could. Um, but there's Circa Sports. Okay, there they go, and those are, uh, those are some of the tweets we got. Let me read a few more.
13:04
These are, uh, this is from [laughs] it's, it's from Kevin Ryan.
13:09
Uh, "Gil, is it time to start the conversation that it looks like now two years in a row the better quarterback was picked in the number two position rather than the number one?" Um, let's see.
13:18
Brian M., "Oh, yes, the Evan McPherson field goal miss," he said with regards to the Washington-Cincinnati game. "Missed field goals should count as turnovers.
13:25
It's basically the quarterback taking a knee on fourth down for a seven to eight-yard loss."
13:29
Um, Bentley, "Can't wait for this year's Circa Survivor documentary showing the formation of a class action lawsuit against the Bengals, and Larry Matthews Jr., a numbers game just in time to distract me from reviewing a 784-page contract at work."
13:43
Oh, glad we could help. And then, uh, LosVegas514, we got a lot of these. "Hi, I'm Jayden Daniels, the new rookie quarterback. Hi, I'm Terry McLaurin. I'm a really good wide receiver if you throw me the ball."
13:52
Gil, they finally were introduced to one another. Yes, they were. Absolutely. Yeah, I think we, I think there was a lot- Yeah... of us thinking about you last night in the, those situations.
13:59
We're like, "Hey, there they are." There he is, the incomparable- There they are... Terry McLaurin. I wonder if he introduces himself that way as the incomparable Terry McLaurin.
14:05
MoneylineMarv, "I expect a full homer breakdown of the game last night." How, how did I do, by the way, MoneylineMarv? How'd I do?
14:10
Um, and then MikeStacks, "Oh, being in Survivor with a partner sounds like a great idea until you can't agree. Final analysis, stay solo. Do your own picks and avoid headaches. Cheers to all, and to all a good night."
14:21
I guess he, uh, lost in Survivor, and he didn't agree with his partner's pick, it sounds like. Yeah, I guess. I guess so. Yeah. Uh, and then RayPierce. Let me just read this one. "I think I have 2024 pegged, Gil.
14:30
All kinds of random goofy results will happen all year, then the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl." Yep, sounds about right. [laughs] Yeah. Sounds about right, RayPierce. We'll read some more, uh, coming up.
14:38
Drew Dincic joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, and let me just say this. Um, he's glowing.
14:44
He is radiant, but I'll use the word radiating to describe Drew Dincic on your television screen right now, fresh from the Greek Isles.
14:51
@whale_capper, uh, co-host of both the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast from NBC Sports. Drewski, how you doing, man? Oh, I'm doing tremendously well. Uh, typically after, uh, a vacation, um, I'm, I'm, I'm recharged.
15:04
I'm ready to take on, uh, take on work, take on handicapping, like let's go.
15:09
Um, but, uh, I don't think I've ever been, um, more depressed [laughs] returning to life in California like, like, uh, oh man, like how come I can't just wake up and look at the, uh, the beautiful, uh, cerulean blue sea every morning?
15:21
Like this is, uh, uh, you know, uh, very, very, very tough to kind of return to what is a, a very blessed life that I lead and, uh, and you know, have nothing but fond stories and things to say about, uh, our hospitality that we had in Greece.
15:35
Uh, had just an incredible time in the islands there and, um, actually got to watch a lot of football. Uh, the timing worked out well to- Really?... uh, to catch a lot of the good stuff, so, um, yeah.
15:44
Yeah, I'm, I'm ready for, I'm ready for, uh, uh, you know, real life to start again, but I gotta tell you, this is, this is about as depressed as I've ever, ever been post-vacation.
15:53
[laughs] A lot, lot of sympathy I'm sure coming your way, Drew. Yeah. Lot of people coming, yeah. Feeling real bad for you. Tough, tough, tough life this guy has. Yeah.
16:01
Uh, let me ask you the question I asked, uh, sort of, I asked it of Kelly.
16:04
I kind of was asking it out loud to everybody last segment, which is, uh, from the two games last night, the positive of the Bills just steamrolling the Jags and Washington with Jayden Daniels going to two and one, uh, with an outright win over the Bengals as seven-and-a-half point dogs versus also the futility stories of the Jags and the Bengals both falling to 0 and 3 and the Jags a, 0 and 8 now in the, in Trevor Lawrence's last eight started games.
16:29
What's the biggest story of that bunch? Uh, the biggest takeaways I thought were the kind of the s- crystallization at the top of the market for MVP and OROY, uh, with the Bills and, uh, Daniels. Yeah.
16:42
Um, the negatives, uh, you know, you can point to a lot of negatives, and I don't know. There, God, there are a lot of takeaways, like, um...
16:49
And actually, like thank goodness Monday Night Football had all of this stuff to talk about because, uh, the Sunday action was not great. Yes, true that.
16:56
Um, but the, um, the, but yeah, there are some phenomenal storylines that came out of those last night's games, and I think, um, you know, the fact that Kliff Kingsbury and, and Daniels and McLaurin are already at this stage in, in, uh, week three is, is pretty awesomely positive.
17:10
But I will say that that was sort of the ideal opponent for them, uh, which is a, a Bengals team that not only had huge limitations coming into this game but then had additional injuries to where the rushing attack like took all of the pressure off of the passing attack, which really allowed them to take some of those deep shots.
17:25
Um, there was hardly any pass rush.
17:27
Um, and I, maybe the kind of the unheralded, um, positive for the Commanders is I had this offensive line pegged as a bottom five unit coming into the season, and they're playing like a top five unit.
17:38
Um, some of it may be opponent-based, but, uh, you know, just in general the fact that they were able to hold off the Giants last week to the tune of kind of getting a win, uh, against an elite D line and then, you know, last night basically just absolutely dominating, I think that's worth paying attention to.
17:52
And, you know, really the surprise success stories that you look at across the NFL all kind of have that similar through line where, you know, Steelers' offensive line has been amazing.
18:02
Uh, the Saints' offensive line was expected to be bottom five. They've been solid. You know, and I, and so like- Mm-hmm...
18:07
you know, kind of that aspect of play being able to help sustain offense which, you know, is hard to come by in today's NFL for whatever reason, um, you know, has been a huge story.
18:16
And, you know- I had high confidence in the Bills last night.
18:19
I, you know, two, two wins for me with the Bills in the over in this, in the night cap and, and I still feel like I left money on the table because they were both such rock and sure winners, both b- basically home by halftime.
18:28
And, uh, but the Bill's like, yeah, Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level, but boy, oh, boy, is his offensive line absolutely kicking butt.
18:35
Like, they are giving him all the time in the world to make the right decision, and if you give Josh Allen time in the wor- you know, to, to scramble if, if, uh, you know, read one and two aren't open, and you allow him to make plays out of structure on top of what is already, you know, a top two quarterback, uh, clearly top two quarterback in the NFL, then, you know, he's gonna look like this.
18:53
And the fact that he's got seven touchdowns and no interceptions, maybe his MVP price is a little bit inflated, uh, 'cause presumably the interce- if the interceptions aren't going to completely, you know, just evaporate from his game.
19:05
Um, and he'll have, you know, that people will kind of use that as a knock if he does have a couple of loose, uh, loose performances.
19:11
But, um, what he's able to do both on the ground and through the air is pretty amazing, and I think Bill's being sort of your number one power rated team as long as they're this healthy offensively, and really key on the offensive line.
19:22
As long as this offensive line stays healthy and Josh Allen, uh, doesn't injure his throwing shoulder or throwing hand, um, yeah, the, uh, Bills are gonna be a, a healthy, uh, favorite to win the AFC in my opinion, for, uh, for the t- you know, foreseeable future.
19:35
So, um, yeah, big, big takeaways for me were the more of the positives.
19:39
Um, on the negative side of the ball, uh, we are approaching what my- is one of my favorite [laughs] narratives, uh, as sort of an armchair commentator on the NFL, uh, which is, uh, we could have a leave him on the tarback situation with the, uh, Jags heading to London in a few weeks.
19:56
That's right. Uh, and Dougie P just on this- Ooh... insane losing tear 'cause I, I...
20:00
You know, you look at their schedule, you look at how poorly Trevor Lawrence is performing, you look at how just chaotic and undisciplined and poorly coached the offensive looks to be at this point, and, uh, you wonder if they, uh, if they sustain two losses to two bad teams in London, uh, if that, uh, ultimately is the, uh, time that they elect to pull the trigger and, uh, bring in somebody else, because it doesn't really feel like he, uh, has kind of established the winning culture that they were expecting him, uh, to do in Jacksonville.
20:27
A bunch of the, uh, Doug Peterson won't get out of, uh, halftime to the, uh, to the team plane texts were being flown around yesterday, were being sent around yesterday. Uh, by the way, Josh Allen, two to one to win MVP.
20:37
Patrick Mahomes, three to one. Everybody else is double digits and beyond. And I wanna ask... Oh, I'm sorry, Kelly. Go ahead. Doug Peterson plus 150 to be the first coach head, uh, first head coach fired.
20:46
There, there you go. [laughs] Plus 150 to be the first head coach fired. Uh, how about this from last night? Washington seven to one to win the NFC East. I just have to ask. Mm. Seven to one to win the NFC East.
20:56
They're tied with the Eagles at two, two and one, uh, just after three games.
21:00
And because of the Bengals' loss, let me ask you this, the unthinkable, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the second short shot to win the AFC North- Mm... at two to one.
21:12
Would you bet either the Commodores or the Steelers in their respective divisions? Oof.
21:18
Uh, oh, I have some [laughs] I have some positive stuff for the Commodores, uh, in general, uh, preseason that I was ready to sell to anyone at a discount who was willing to take it.
21:30
Um, and so I'm not, I, I'm not, uh, really thinking that highly this, at this point, even though they do, you know, obviously have, um, you know, two hard-fought wins in the bank.
21:41
Again, you know, one of them against a team that they were expected to sh- clearly lose to. But, um, the Commodores de- Commanders, [laughs] their defense is still pr- quite poor. Quite poor, yes.
21:50
Uh, their pass defense especially. Yeah. And, you know, so, and I, I'm, I'm guessing that Jaylen Daniels is gonna have the ups and downs that every rookie quarterback does.
21:58
Uh, and in a game where things aren't going well for him and, you know, there, you know, the, there's, there's, um, there's less, um, support from, uh, you know, a running game that can't be stopped, then, uh, you know, he's g- they're gonna have a, a tougher time winning.
22:11
But boy, oh boy, do the, both the Eagles and the Cowboys look fatally flawed.
22:15
Um, and, uh, Eagles already with huge health questions, and Cowboys just look like they can't really figure out how to win under McCarthy at this point. So, um, yeah, I don't hate the Commanders. The Steelers,
22:27
I think the plan with the Steelers is wait until their schedule gets tougher and then, uh, and then take some- Yeah... take some, uh, some of the deeper, some of the big, bigger prices in that market.
22:36
The gauntlet is still coming for the Steelers, but had to ask. Uh, Drew Dincic- Yeah... on week four in the National Football League.
22:43
Looking forward, that's on the other side right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
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23:02
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23:33
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Gil Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book.
23:40
Show would be nothing without you, the greatest listeners in the game, and I mean it. Always appreciate the feedback. Remember, funny is always good. Good, bad, doesn't matter.
23:48
You can murder us if you want, as long as you're funny. Uh, RB Tref, just followed VSiN. "Survivor, if nothing else, helped me understand women a little." [laughs] Okay. "I, I don't want solutions.
23:57
Don't mansplain it to me. I just wanna feel heard and move on from it. That's it. And a spa day sounds nice, and I wouldn't say no to ice cream, a lot of ice cream." He's very upset [laughs] that he's out of Survivor.
24:08
By the way, the reason we talk about Survivor too is I said this in the, uh, Quest for 9.2 Million documentary.
24:12
I'm like, "None of us owes a GD thing, none of us," and it has never been more applicable than it is this year.
24:18
Jesse Welch, "Hey Gil, hypothetically, if Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers were both to maintain the production that they both just put up in their last game, can Daniels and the Washington market beat out the New York bias to win Offensive Rookie of the Year?"
24:30
Well, yes, because Daniels is a starting quarterback for an NFL team, and if this was to continue, he would have zero turnovers in the entire-
24:38
season national football league It's more like can neighbors beat out the, uh, the quarterback bias that you get in this league. Yeah.
24:43
Uh, Jayden Daniels has no turnovers, and again, Washington has not punted since week one. It can't be stopped. Uh, Jason McKinney, "I blame Kelly." Oh, we got a lot of these. Yeah, we did.
24:53
"I blame Kelly- It's my fault... for our elimination from Survivor since he played the Survivor song prematurely." But you're not to blame for that, right? Oh, I, yes, I am. Oh, you are? You're taking the blame?
25:02
I am blaming, yeah. All right. It's Kelly Billings then. Kelly Billings' fault, all of it. Uh, this is from, uh, Sam. Oh, this is great. Listen to this one.
25:09
"Following up on this after tonight," he goes, "I'm in a Survivor pool of close to 100 people. It officially ended tonight. Who won?
25:16
Well, our organizer made the rule that if you didn't make a pick by 1:00 PM Eastern on Sunday, you were defaulted to the shortest favorite on the board." So listen to that.
25:26
So he goes, "The person who won the pool never made an actual pick." [laughs] "Auto-picked each week. Vikings week one, Cardinals week two, Ravens week three, all the shortest favorites each week.
25:38
My initial reaction," he says, "is what a terrible rule by the organizer. It should be the biggest underdog. Uh, es- essentially," he says, "penalizing for not picking. Well, here's the wildest part of it.
25:50
Uh, if that was the case, the individual still would have won the pool.
25:53
That would've looked like the Pats beating the Bengals week one, the Raiders beating the Ravens week two, and now the Commanders beating the Bengals week three. Unreal."
26:00
And again, that tells you why, why do we bet baseball and tennis and other things? Because this league is meshugana, I believe is the technical term. Just absolutely crazy. Uh, it's Sly Brite, [laughs] officially active.
26:13
Jameson Williams, Jayden Reed officially inactive. Jordan Love, Kenneth Walker, Jake Ferguson, Josh Downs, Marshon Lattimore, DJ Reed. There you go, DJ Sly Brite. Uh, okay, let's get back to Drew Dinsick.
26:22
Only r- one more.
26:23
Uh, Sly Brite saying, "The ultimate definition of mixed emotions was me, uh, last night because I did have Cincinnati in Survivor, but then my team, Washington, and the fact that I have Jayden Daniels Offensive Rookie of the Year at 7-1."
26:33
Mm-hmm. Both of those looking real good. Drew Dinsick now from the, uh, Progressive guest line once again at, uh, whale_capper.
26:40
NBC Sports Bet the Edge with, uh, Jay Croucher, and of course, Dinsick classic, The Deep Dive with Andy Molator. Uh, week four, what are you betting so far? What have you bet?
26:50
Oh, well, f- first, uh, to reply with one, the one tweet that I thought was interesting about neighbors v. Daniels. If Daniels continues the production we saw last night, he's gonna be in the MVP discussion.
26:59
That's right. Uh- That's exactly right... and you can pretty much, you can pretty much write the, you know, O- OROY would be, like, minus 10,000. Yeah.
27:05
Um, and, uh, you know, I, I don't know that it's possible, but, uh, I do get a-- I do have to say that, again, like, the offensive line is performing a lot better than we expected, and Kliff Kingsbury seems to at least kind of pivot it away from the horizontal passing game, which was the one thing that I had reservations about that experiment working at all.
27:22
So we'll see. Um, week four looks tough, [laughs] honestly. Uh, you know, it, you know, the, there was, uh, probably, like, 10 sides and totals that stood out for me week three, like, on the open.
27:33
Um, and I d- just kinda s- you know, let that ride, uh, for the week.
27:37
But, uh, I only see four things that really stand out right now, uh, until we get some of the injury reports, um, you know, a little bit more clarity on what's going on.
27:44
The injury reports that matter the most are pretty clearly San Francisco and, uh, the, uh, LA Chargers.
27:49
Um, I can't believe the Chargers lost basically every first, every i- every important player, uh, in that game against Pittsburgh.
27:55
Uh, the Mike Tomlin voodoo is so strong, um, makes me wanna look at that, uh, Coach of the Year price a little bit more carefully.
28:01
Um- You think, you think that's the way to bet the Steelers, Mike Tomlin, Coach of the Year? Oh, without question. Yeah. You j- yeah. He, he finally got votes for the first time last year, Gil. And, uh- [laughs]...
28:10
if, you know, this is the tea- this was the year that, that there was the least amount of support and belief that this team was gonna do anything. Right. There was no preseason hype. Raising my hand right here.
28:18
And I bet them the fewest wins, and I think they probably already have enough wins not to lose that bet, or not to w- you know, not to, not to, uh, ultimately win that market.
28:26
So, um, yeah, it is, uh, yeah, and I presumably, like, the way Fields played was good enough in today's NFL to continue to win games when your defense is the best, and so I, yeah, I'm, I'm done kind of doubting them for the time being until their schedule, until they play, like, a real opponent.
28:42
We'll see. Um, speaking of playing a real- O'Connell- Yeah... McDonald, and Harbaugh still shorter shots than Mike Tomlin, who's still 10 to 1. Harbaugh's insane.
28:49
Uh, the, the Harbaugh and Kevin O'C- I, I, I get the Kevin O'Connell thing, but I really have a tough time even if the Vikings kind of do get there, if, if he's gonna be the kind of major...
29:01
If he's gonna earn the credit, right? 'Cause so much of it should go to Brian Flores and the defense, right? Hmm. [laughs] Uh, and, you know, and you...
29:09
Yeah, it's, it's, it's one thing to resurrect Sam Darnold's career, but he was still a top two pick, and you have Justin Jefferson, who's a top one non-quarterback in the NFL.
29:18
[laughs] So Kevin O'Connell to me I think is gonna have a little bit tough time kinda getting the credit pie to where he deserves to be, plus 350.
29:26
Um, McDonald and the Seahawks to me, and I was kinda gonna go there first with week four, they are kind of... And I, I, again, like, I'm heavy McDonald in this market. I think I bet- Me too...
29:35
30 to 1, 25 to 1, every- everything I could find when I was in Vegas out there for BetPesh. And, um, I am very, very, very nervous that the Seahawks are sort of the undefeated fraud, uh, in the mix here. Me too.
29:48
Me too, yep. Um, boy, like, you look at the quality of quarterback that they've played so far. Congratulations, you got Bo Nix in his first start.
29:55
Congratulations, you got Jacoby Brissett behind an offensive line that can't do anything. Congratulations, uh, you get to play against Skylar Thompson, and I forget even who relieved Skylar- And, and really-...
30:04
Thompson after the cut... and really couldn't put the Dolphins away till the very end really. No. Yeah. They really couldn't. And they couldn't put the Pa- the Patriots took them to overtime. Mm-hmm.
30:12
Patriots are terrible. Um, so yeah, that was... The, the, the there, there are, there is ma- massive fraud watch, uh, for this, uh, Seattle team, and most of it's on the offense for me. Uh, the defense looks decent.
30:23
Um, and the defense, again, kinda gets a little fortunate this week going up against the Lions team that I'm expecting to be without Frank Rag- Ragnow. Um, I think that, uh, that sets up well for...
30:32
You know, Lions really just haven't showed us any type of chemistry whatsoever offensively to this point in the season. It may come later, but it's not here now. And then you take your center out of the mix, that's huge.
30:42
Um, the offensive line in general has not done a good job pass protecting, and so I think Seattle can, um, give the, uh...
30:47
Anyhow, just again, like I, I will never forget Mc- what Mike McDonald did to Jared Goff, uh, again, uh, you know, in Baltimore last year.
30:54
That was just an absolute masterclass of how to frustrate a quarterback who really relies heavily on the offensive coordinator to set the table for him.
31:00
So, um, to me that looks like a, a nice matchup for Seattle defense.
31:04
Uh, and then the Seattle offense I have huge questions about going up against the Lions defense that can pass rush with an offensive line in Seattle that I have, again, huge questions about on the road, noisy arena.
31:13
So Under 46 is the clear obvious standout for me there. I know that it's come down from the opener 48. Uh, I bet it at 47 actually, but I think, still think 46 is too high.
31:24
This one should be cl- closer to 44, in my opinion.
31:27
Uh, and in general like this, that could, that ultimately could just be a battle of attrition where, you know, best special teams field goal unit, uh, tend, you know, ends up being the, the deciding factor in that Monday Night Football game.
31:38
So, um, lot of thoughts on Seattle. I hope they keep winning.
31:41
I hope McDonald stays in the mix for Coach of the Year, but boy, oh, boy, did I need to see more, uh, out of that team overall against, you know, against real competition, and this is your first real test.
31:49
So, uh, fi- fired up for that game. Um, the other one that stood out to me side-wise, uh, f- I'm gonna be the donkey that, uh, goes to the well and takes the Bills' money [laughs] on Bills plus money this week.
32:01
Um, I'm not seeing it with the Ravens. I know that the, like, the ultimate final score against the Cowboys was not indicative of what a, you know, just an absolute class, you know, put on display that was by the Ravens.
32:12
But, um, last year's Ravens don't lose, you know, you know, don't, uh, give up that lead. They, you know, bury the Cowboys 40 to three.
32:19
Um, and there are problems with this Ravens defense, dis- you know, the special teams, the, the, the penalties.
32:26
Like, a lot of things about what the Ravens are doing right now look, uh, pretty questionable to me, and everything that the Buffalo Bills do, you know, just speaks to them being an absolute truck.
32:35
I know it's a short week. I know that we've seen a lot of teams come off of really impressive prime time performances and then just absolutely lay eggs the following week.
32:43
Um, but, uh, the Bills to me should be, um, I, I pick 'em in this game, not plus 110 on the money line. So, uh, give me some plus money Bills.
32:51
Um, and then, uh, the other two sides that stood out to me are the Jets at minus seven. I played that at minus 110. I think you can still get that price around.
32:59
Um, nothing about, you know, the Jets having extra rest to prepare for Bo Nix spells success for the Broncos offense in this contest, and I think the Jets, uh, are kind of building a little bit of momentum here, uh, in general on offense.
33:10
So, uh, give me the Jets minus the seven. Uh, prefer minus 110, but, uh, don't mind, don't mind landing minus 115. And then, uh, lastly, I, I, I, I see no separation between the Saints and the Falcons.
33:23
Saints offensive line performing well enough to hold off the Falcons' meager pass rush. I think that, uh, Saints can win that game. Drew, no more vacations during football season, okay? I'm done. Okay.
33:33
[laughs] Well, actually, I'm going to wine country in a, in a week, but I'll still be on with you guys. Okay. [laughs] Thank you, Drew. Drew Dincic, everybody, uh, @whale_capper. We'll come back.
33:42
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34:30
Sign up for just $9.99 for your first month at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander. I'm just laughing 'cause this [laughs] some of the tweets are so great.
34:44
Uh, we get tweets at Reading the Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback, truly grateful. Real Bozarth, Master of Puppets, he says, "Well, Survivor was fun." [laughs] "Had the, had the perfect road map [laughs]
34:55
until tonight." I love people who go out on Survivor. It doesn't matter if it's after week one. "Oh, I was set up so perfectly." And that was, uh, that was me on Sunday. [laughs] I was, I was set up so perfectly.
35:04
Cleveland or Cincinnati, I'm gonna pick the gre- better schedule here, Gil. It's like Chrissy's old story where this guy comes up to the desk back in the day at, uh, Cal, uh, Neva, and it's like, "Oh my God," the, the...
35:14
He had like an eight-leg parlay. He goes, "Oh my God, the Jaguars just cost me my parlay." It was like the first leg of it. [laughs] You know, whatever. When the Jaguars were the hit. That was always a great one too.
35:23
Uh, Mr. Bomb Apple. Mr. Bomb Apple. The Incomparable One, there you go, "Barry's the Bengals Survivor's picks.
35:29
Truly impressed by Daniels tonight," by The Incomparable, he's referring to the incomparable Terry McLaurin, of course.
35:34
Do, do you think Jayden Daniels on that throw was, was, was planning on throwing it out of the back of the end zone? No, I think he actually thought he was gonna con- Really? Oh, absolutely. Okay.
35:43
'Cause he's got the incomparable Terry McLaurin. Anything is possible. I mean, whoever, whoever hit him was in his face immediately. Oh, the fact that he- I think that was-... stood in there.
35:50
No, no, no, I completely believe he was throwing a touchdown pass.
35:53
I th- I took it as, like, 80% this is out of the back of the end zone, but I'm gonna leave a, I'm gonna leave a slight little sliver for my guy to maybe get it.
36:00
Next Gen Stats said it was a 10%-plus possibility that play worked. It's crazy. Rich PSM, uh, "Daniels easy Rookie of the Year at this point. Doesn't even look nervous, and they haven't stopped him once."
36:09
All those things we were talking about. "Game looks easy to him. Another number two pick away better than number one," he says. Uh, and then, uh, [laughs] we have some others. This is, yes, New York Mess 60.
36:19
This is talking about how he hasn't been introduced to McLaurin yet. "Mr. Daniels, Mr. McLaurin. Mr. McLaurin, Mr. Daniels. Nice to finally meet you." I like that.
36:26
Uh, and then, uh, on Dr- [laughs] on Drew's segment moments ago, these are great. Um, Nick, at the Real, at Real Nicks, he says, uh, "Congrats for booking the lost member of the Bee Gees on your show.
36:36
Who knew he was a betting expert?" [laughs] That's one. And then, uh, Manny Davison tweets, and he says, "Drew should start a podcast with Jesse Pagula called Our Depressing Lives." [laughs] So great.
36:51
Uh, this is- Oh, you gotta do it out on, like, an island resort. Yes. Our Depr- Oh, so, so sad that, yeah, that you're back home in Long Beach. [laughs] ScottyB726. Oh, this is a great point from ScottyB. Oh, man.
37:03
I wanna bring this up too because I, I sort of casually said this, and then as I said this, I'm like, "Yeah, I probably shouldn't say that anymore." And Scotty points it out.
37:10
He says, "Are we sure the back half of Pittsburgh's schedule is tough? Cincinnati and Cleveland might equal four wins." I don't know about four wins- Yeah... but your point is w- is well taken.
37:20
I think what we perceive to be a gauntlet Doesn't look as gauntlety, if I may say it that way, as it once did. So I shouldn't say that anymore about Pittsburgh.
37:30
Um, might not be that, that big of a hurdle Yeah, I think that was, that was part of the point of Drew looking at Tomlin, r- coach of the year, right? Uh- Liking that path... yeah.
37:38
Bill Walsh, not that Bill Walsh from the grave, but another Bill Walsh says, "Did not foresee Survivor having the same attrition rate as the perfect bracket contest after the Thursday afternoon session of games on day one of the tourney.
37:48
We have reached peak Plinko." That's right, copyrighted Numbers Game, absolutely. Uh, and then Johnny Vegas, "First year I was in Survivor, told myself I wasn't gonna play the top pick all year.
37:57
Didn't see Bengals, uh, being it this week and I'm gone. Woke up this morning a little sad to dreary, rainy weather. Will definitely play this contest the rest of my life. It's a rush." Absolutely. So many great tweets.
38:08
We'll get to more coming up. I mean, there, there's no way it's going down in popularity bec- just- No... simply because of how much we've talked about it already these first few weeks.
38:15
I said to Derek, I ran into Derek- Yeah... uh, and I, and I casually threw it. I go, "You do realize I was the only one talking about this the first year?"
38:20
[laughs] And he w- and he sort of, like, ignored me, and he just kept going. [laughs] I was like, "Okay."
38:24
Uh- I mean, you know, you know how many, how many shows outside of the VSIN network I've heard bring up Circa- Oh, they-... the Circa Survivor contest? They all talk about it now.
38:33
Like, everybody talks about it They all talk about it now, but I think it's a, I think it's a valid question. Somebody probably- Yeah, no, it-... it was right to ask it... no, it's a great question, yeah.
38:39
Um, let's look at a couple, let's look at a few awards, shall we? Do you wanna start with MLB or you wanna do a couple NFL? What would you like? Uh, let's go, uh, let's go MLB.
38:47
Let's, uh, 'cause I know you had, you had some thoughts on these. Let's, uh, hit those before we get, uh, 'cause we're gonna have Will in here next. Do I have thoughts? Maybe I have thoughts. Oh, okay.
38:54
Well, let's see what they are. [laughs] Whatever. Major League Baseball. Right now, uh- I usually have thoughts... NL, Skeens minus 145 at DraftKings. Okay, I am not involved in this.
39:01
Will, Will will have thoughts coming up as well, Will Hill with all his bets. Um, but I, I said this casually yesterday, 'cause it came up briefly at the end of Guessing Lines. I, you, you're handicapping voters here.
39:12
It's all you're doing.
39:13
Um, and again, the reason I took the Tigers to make the playoffs over betting Skeens at plus money last week is 'cause I'd rather have it resolved this week than have to wait till damn near Thanksgiving to find out, uh, who ends up being the NL Rookie of the Year.
39:27
If you're asking me what my hunch is, my hunch is, is that Paul Skeens is going to win the National League Rookie of the Year over Jackson Merrill. Skeens right now is minus 145. Merrill is plus 115.
39:40
I, I think if you're, I think if you're, if you're thinking about placing a bet right now, it's, it's a coin flip, right? I, my hunch is it's Skeens, but I have no idea.
39:51
Uh, because you could make a case for both of them, and I know people are passionately on the Skeens side, and people are passionately on the Merrill side, and they try to disparage the other side.
39:58
There's no disparaging one side over the oth- the, the other side- Yeah... on this.
40:02
You could make a case for both, but my hunch is, is that most of the voters are going to go with Skeens because you, it, just on the thought that you can't shut him out completely after what is near Cy Young-type numbers really in his rookie year.
40:18
As great as Jackson Merrill was, as dramatic as that one week, and I know I'm not trying to belittle him to one week, but that one week where he had those dramatic home runs, uh, late in games, that really catapulted him.
40:30
He's had a great season. I get it, but I think it's Skeens in the end. Could be wrong.
40:34
Now, now with us running out of runway, obviously these, these odds are, can j- can shift more dramatically right here with less games. What, what, what happened though in the past week?
40:43
Merrill just, uh, he get a little cold at the plate? No, Skeens, well, Skeens had a great last start again.
40:47
So it's, I, I mean, I just feel like if you throw Skeens' stats up on the screen, it's kinda hard to argue with it. Well, they're insane, yeah. Yeah, it's insane. It's like, "Wait, what are we even talking about?"
40:57
I, I thought it was funny when we, you remember when we first started talking about, or, or, um, I guess most recently when we started talking about Merrill really making this charge, it was kinda funny to me how, how far back he was dropping in the Cy Young market, because technically the two aren't related at all.
41:11
[laughs] No. One's a pitching market, one's a rookie market. And, and remember Merrill got to, like, minus 1,000 at one point- Yeah... in there. Yeah, we're all- Insane. All right, AL...
41:18
we're all stupid for not betting Skeens then. Luis Gil minus 225, Colton Cowser plus 235, Austin Wells plus 370. [sighs] Is this really a three-horse race?
41:28
I, I am amazed at how Luis Gil has been the pr- favorite, and not a negligible favorite in this market. Like, I really don't get it. Um, I think it's, I, I would actually bet Austin Wells.
41:42
Like, I would actually take a flyer on Austin Wells. I would not on Colton Cowser. I don't b- I, I think the New York bias will win out here.
41:49
Uh, it could be Gil, but Austin Wells at plus 370 strikes me as value when you're just, again, you're trying to w- you're trying to anticipate what voters are gonna do. I think that's a bet there.
41:58
If you, if you insisted on betting one of these, Wells plus 370 would be mine. Okay, I like it. All right, wanna switch to NFL? Yep. Rookie of the Year. Rookie of the Year.
42:07
Well, I think we've- [laughs] I think we've, I think we've covered this. Would you bet it right now, though? No. I know you've got a bet for preseason. No, I wouldn't bet it. I have it at seven to one.
42:14
I, but if you're t- if you're asking me would I bet Jayden Daniels now as the short shot at, what was he, like, less than two to one, right? Plus 150, yeah. Plus 150. No, I wouldn't.
42:22
It's only three games, and God help, you know, I, I hate to say it, I don't even wanna speak it, but you know what I'm gonna say, right? Yeah, yep.
42:27
There's a possibility guys don't get through a whole season, so, uh, that's obviously the big concern in Washington is please don't get hurt.
42:34
Um, but if, if you for- like, Nabers is plus 250, Marvin Harrison is plus 350, Caleb plus 650. I guess the question becomes, beyond those, is there something that is of interest?
42:47
And, you know, there's a lot of people who like Brock Bowers at 30 to 1. I don't.
42:51
But Bo Nix at 15 to 1, like, if you believed so much in Bo Nix, that would be the only other interesting one to me, but I'm not betting it, 'cause I don't, I don't have interest in Bo Nix.
43:00
Yeah, or if you somehow knew, like, I don't know, Drake Maye was gonna start this weekend or something- Right... and you wanted to take a 60 to 1 with the rest of the season left to play.
43:08
Like, I think, I think I could, I could ride with that. I, it's re- this market's really tough I think right now, because plus 150, I think Drew kinda brought it up, right?
43:17
He could be, I mean, two weeks from now, three weeks from now, yeah, he might be minus 300 or something like that. Yes. But at the same time, I'm not r- Yeah... it's too early in the season.
43:27
Too many things that can go wrong between now and the end of the season. I don't know if I wanna jump on a plus 150. He, he also brought up the notion of Jayden Daniels as a, as an MVP.
43:34
Jayden Daniels is, like, a bajillion to one as MVP. Um, this is like a, you know, when Skeens was the prohibitive Rookie of the Year back earlier- Yeah, Cy Young...
43:42
in the baseball season, and it was the question, oh, could he also win Cy Young? I think the same thing relates to Jayden Daniels here. As long as the Josh Allens of the world exist, v- he's not gonna win MVP- Yeah...
43:52
over Josh Allen m- most likely, so. It would have to be, like, a massive season. You, it, it would, he'd have to have zero turnovers like he has now.
44:01
They'd have to, like, never punt again, [laughs] which is what's happening now. But it's, you know, that's not, it's a, it's a 17-game season. It's not a three-game season. Trestman with the best job in football, Gil.
44:11
Well, he's just chilling on the sideline. He doesn't do a thing. Hey. He's just gonna sit here. Keep, keep getting those fourth downs, Jayden. [laughs] Uh, we'll come back. Will Hill with all his bets.
44:17
Baseball and football, the final week of the baseball season, and man, are these races for the final wild card close. Coming back. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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