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Sep 24, 2025
A Numbers Game | September 24, 2025 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | September 24, 2025 | Hour 3
00:00
44:50
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN.
0:11
The sports betting network VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Live from circuits, Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Mitchell. Hello, how we doing? My little buddy.
0:23
Down to 222? 222 and a half. 222 and a half. All right. I like how you, uh, you don't give yourself- No, no, no, no, no... even a half a pound. I'm gonna earn it when it gets there. 222 and a half. Okay, Gil?
0:33
It's gonna be earned. Which means you started at 316. We gotta get new imaging. Hey, VSiN management, we gotta get new imaging, 'cause Kelly's 94 pounds heavier on the imaging. Let's change it up.
0:47
I too am 11 pounds less than I was then. Come on, that's a combined 105. [laughs] It's a combined, that's a combined human being. Change. Change the imaging.
0:54
We get tweets of Beating the Book, Chance Copperpot, "You guys didn't hear? The kids are bringing CDs back, kind of like tapes had a bit of a resurgence a while back.
1:01
As far as VHS, I have kept some and I have a way to play them, but it's stuff you can't find streaming or otherwise." That's not actually true, is it? Like, JNCO jeans and CDs are coming back?
1:09
I don't, I didn't hear that. Really? Uh, maybe they are. Ronnie Roach on guessing lines, uh, with Gil, didn't, Gil didn't wanna say at, so instead said Vikings versus the Steelers.
1:19
DraftKings has no problem saying it, though, at the Steelers. Well, it is technically at the Steelers, right? It counts as a Steelers home game. They don't get a home game to replace this.
1:29
So not, not fun in that respect. Jason H11, "In golf, if you look good, you play good. You see the USA outfits? Woof," he says, "Europe in a landslide," he says. "LOL." You know what?
1:39
Jen- Jensen texted this over to me yesterday too. Breaking news, the Ryder Cup uniforms never look good. I think they, they really don't. Never. Like, never. They really don't.
1:47
Ne- it's not like there's one side looking better than the other, then none of them look good, ever. Turns out stars and stripes might not be the greatest fashion thing in the world. Ri- yeah. Yeah. Love the flag.
1:55
Love the flag. But that- Love the country. Fashion, I don't know... also, if you're gonna do it, go, like, full John Daly, right? Like, go- Yeah... like, stars, pants, and just, like, a stripe shirt.
2:04
Um, I think I may play plus 175 on Team Europe, and I know that, I know there's the to lift trophy market, which gives you the tie protection, but I ain't scared of no tie.
2:14
It- There's been two in the history of the Ryder Cup... it, it's really tough for that to tie. We're gonna, you gotta get to 14 and a half. 1414 would be the tie on that.
2:22
Uh, our next guest is providing, uh, us with a fantastic offer just because you're listening here to VSiN. Uh, Warren Sharp has an unbelievable deal for VSiN this week. Get all of his betting recommendations for just $1
2:35
this week. Whoa. That is one United States dollar. That's right, just $1. Go to sharp.football and use code VSiN. This week and this week only. Regularly $99, now just $1. That's a pretty good savings right there.
2:50
That's awesome. That is awesome. Sharp.football, and use code VSiN, and what do you know? We have Warren Sharp with us right here courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Warren? Good morning to you.
2:58
That's a hell of a deal. Yeah, we're just, uh, you know, letting people try it out, see what they think, uh. See w- see if they, see how we do for them this week.
3:09
Uh, we, we, we love the card this week, so we're interested in, uh, in seeing how people enjoy the service. Well, well said, and we just, you know, we just got a tweet about the, uh, the Vikings-Steelers Dublin game.
3:19
You have some thoughts on this one? I think it's gonna come down to pressure, uh, on, on both sides of the ball. You know, we've got a new quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings.
3:30
We'll see how Carson Wentz handles the Steelers' pressure, but they do blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
3:36
We know that Minnesota was not very good against the blitz with their rookie, well, second-year quarterback. Uh, we'll see if Carson Wentz can do a little bit better.
3:45
He was only blitzed twice last week, because the Cincinnati Bengals just simply don't blitz. They blitz at the lowest rate in the NFL. So we'll see if, uh, how he handles the Steelers blitz.
3:54
And then on the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers has massive splits with and without pressure. I've got some numbers here. When he's pressured, six of 22, that's 27%- Ooh... completions. Mm. 17% success.
4:07
31% of the times that he's blitzed, he either takes a sack or throws an interception. Those are horrific numbers. But when he's clean, 78% completions, and he's got plus.34 EPA per attempt.
4:20
So the Vikings bring a lot of pressure. We know Brian Flores is really good at bringing pl- uh, pressure. They blitz at a pretty high rate.
4:27
So this is on the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers to try to figure out a way to keep Aaron Rodgers clean and upright in the pocket.
4:36
Uh, one of the things that we know that they're going to do is throw the ball short, throw the ball quick. That's pretty much their MO, is just fire it out to the sidelines as quickly as possible.
4:44
At what point, Gil, do we see defenses just realize this is all this offense is going to do, is just get rid of the ball from Aaron Rodgers' hands as quickly as possible?
4:53
Their largest completion of the entire year was a dump-off pass to a running back who took it 60 yards, uh, in, in Jalen Warren.
5:00
So I think we're going to, hopefully the Minnesota Vikings figure it out and, and, and pressure him. So I don't know.
5:08
This game's going to be interesting, but I think it's definitely gonna be dictated by which quarterback handles the pressure the best. Aaron Rodgers, gonna be 42 years old in December. 42 years old in December.
5:18
That, again, at Dublin, uh, Ireland, 9:30 Eastern, uh, early Sunday morning, 6:30 AM Pacific for those waking up on the West Coast. Um, okay. Uh, Cousin Sal. You know Cousin Sal, Kelly? Mm-hmm. Cousin Sal. Yeah.
5:32
Uh, Bill Simmons guy, and, uh- Of course... cousin of Jimmy Kimmel. Cousin Sal has a nickname that he c- he's come up with for Drake May. Did you hear this? No. Drake Maybe.
5:41
[laughs] Which I think is a very apt nickname- That's amazing...
5:44
because we really don't know yet, maybe Warren has some insight on this, where we're getting with, with Drake May at this point in his young career, a year and change.
5:52
Patriots are five and a half point favorites at the Panthers. This is a line, Warren, that has not moved all week. It has sat right there at five and a half, total at 43 and a half. What have you seen with Drake May?
6:04
Well, I've seen a team that invested a lot in trying to help Drake May this past off-season. They've added to the offensive line. They brought in Stefon Diggs in the receiver room.
6:13
And then of course, the biggest piece was they brought in a new play caller in Josh McDaniels, who had a lot of success with the New England Patriots in years past.
6:22
But they have not helped Drake May at all with regards to the run game. The run game is not doing anything of value for the New England Patriots. In fact, it's costing them with the fumbleitis that they seem to have.
6:33
You know, they put in Treveyon Henderson. He can't pick up the pass protection right.
6:37
Then you put on Rhamondre Stevenson, and he's just fumbling the ball and taking points away from the team, and even Antonio Gibson had a fumble as well. So this team just cannot win with the running backs.
6:48
So I think they need to lean even further into the passing attack, and Drake May statistically has done really well passing the football. It might shock some people, uh, where he ranks in some of these key metrics.
6:59
Statistically, he's been a top seven passer in terms of his overall success rate. So, uh, he's been number two in completion rate. He's been number nine in EPA per attempt. The issue, though, is that
7:12
if they lean a little bit more into the passing game, they have to figure out a way to get the ball out of his hands quicker because while his pressure rate is down a little bit year over year from last year to this year, which it should be with an improved offensive line and with better receiving options and a better offensive coordinator from a scheme perspective, the issue is, is that he's holding onto the football a little bit too long.
7:36
He's taking too many sacks. Uh, he actually is second in the NFL with sacks taken, only behind Cam Ward. Um, so they've got to figure out a way. Sacks are drive killers. We all know that.
7:46
They've just got to figure out a way to get rid of the ball from Drake May's hands quicker. But overall, from a passing perspective, this team has actually exceeded my expectations with what Drake May could deliver.
7:56
It's just not showing up on the scoreboard. It really hasn't been anything flashy.
7:59
But if anybody out there watched that last week's game closely when the Patriots went up against the Pittsburgh Steelers, when they're handing the ball off, it's, it, it, it looks terrible.
8:08
But when Drake May's dropping back to pass, I like the creativity that Josh McDaniels is bringing to that offense. They're throwing the ball a lot to the tight ends.
8:15
They've got some creative concepts, and Drake May has been exceeding expectations.
8:20
It's just that, uh, they have to avoid those negative plays when he's dropping back to pass and, and help him get rid of the ball and be a little bit more decisive in the pocket with this new offense.
8:29
Yeah, and those two killer penalties, I mean, they had more than that.
8:33
Uh, it was a t- it was a turnover fest for New England against Pittsburgh, but two deep, and I'm talking about, like, on the doorstep, uh, in Pittsburgh territory. Uh, one was a, uh, Drake May pick.
8:44
One was a Rhamondre fumble. We were saying yesterday, Bill Belichick, wherever he is, he's rolling over in his grave thinking about a running back fumbling and still, and still being played, put out there.
8:53
Um, but it sounds like you're more, you're more on the Drake probably l- uh, list than the Drake maybe. That's s- that a good sort of characterization? I was...
9:01
Yeah, I mean, look, so many people were buying the Patriots futures all off-season, and the situation was good. They really did improve in a lot of different areas, but they were being favored in far too many games.
9:12
The market was, like, at the peak. We all knew this, uh, with the Patriots as we entered this season. The one reason I couldn't fire is not only did I not see value, I didn't know. I was Drake maybe entering this season.
9:26
I still think I'm mostly Drake maybe at this moment, but I do think that people don't realize how well he has been playing, and I think they could l- even lean, like I said, further into his good play to start this year and just, just pass the ball at a little bit of a higher rate.
9:43
They have to figure out how to be a little bit more aggressive.
9:45
But Mike Vrabel continues to criticize all aspects of this offense in all of his press conferences and whatnot, and, you know, the defense should be taking their blame as well on his side of the ball- Yeah...
9:56
because th- this is- Yeah... a problem for the entire unit. Yeah. I mean, that's one of the biggest things to me. I'm pr- I'm in the Drake probably camp. Yeah. You can put me Drake probably. I...
10:04
Warren, I feel like it's two straight off-seasons in a row, though, where we've o- we've overrated this Patriots defense coming into the year, and that was a lot of what swung numbers too far for me to get involved with anything New England.
10:15
So we were talking defenses earlier in the show, but Warren, w- who do you think is the worst defense in the NFL right now? Oh, the worst? Um, man, that's tough. We think it's the Cowboys, but- That's a tough question.
10:28
I think... I was gonna say the Cowboys, but I do think it's actually the Cincinnati Bengals in my perspective. That's right. That's a The one thing-... brought it up...
10:35
that Cincinnati does a good job of is preventing, like, the big, deep explosives, and this is where I think it's gonna be really interesting against Denver coming up here on Monday night.
10:43
Denver has struggled a lot with their early down offense. I think they're gonna have a lot of success in their early down offense against this Bengals unit 'cause the Bengals don't prioritize early down defense.
10:52
They just don't want you to score in, like, one or two plays, so they'll play a little softer. I think Denver really could come to life offensively here on early downs against this unit.
11:01
The Cincinnati defense is exactly why that question came up, so that's interesting that you say that. Uh, Warren, appreciate it once again.
11:08
Um, you can follow Warren on Twitter at Sharp Football, but at Sharp.Football, and if you use code Visa in there, you will get this week's package from Warren, all of his betting recommendations for just $1, usually $99.
11:23
How about $1? How does that, uh- That's a pretty good discount right there... how does that treat you? Warren, appreciate it very much. Thank you so much. Thanks, guys. Warren Sharp, everybody.
11:32
Again, Sharp Football is the Twitter, Sharp.Football for the deal for $1 if you put in code Visa. Yep. You have to put in code Visa. Uh, always nice to chat with Warren about, uh, the National Football League.
11:43
Always nice to chat with Todd Wishnev about the National Football League and beyond, all of his betting quirks and thoughts next on The Numbers Game right here at Visa.
12:04
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12:11
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12:22
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12:26
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12:37
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12:49
And really, uh, we'd like you to use the promo code ANG because apparently, uh, Jensen Lewis from, uh, By The Books- Mm...
12:55
which he does here with Captain America, Dave Ross, uh, he apparently really wants to win this thing, get the most, and they're on 75,000 different FanDuel affiliates. That's right. Yeah.
13:03
So they have this built-in advantage. So we'd like to be the, uh, the David to their Goliath and, uh, win. That's right. I believe David won that, didn't he? Yeah. Yeah. Yes, he did.
13:12
That would be, would be- So get out there and, and sign up all your friends. Remember, Christmas just around the corner. Hanukkah as well. Always a reason. And you know what?
13:20
Sometimes it's just nice to do something nice for somebody. There you go. We got tweets @bettingthebook, 3JackH3131, "Vinyl albums are back and pricier than ever. Just wait till 8-tracks return."
13:29
Yeah, but vinyl is awesome. The crackling, the sound of it. Yeah, I get that. Yeah. I get that one. CDs? CDs. Nah, stop it.
13:36
But, like, Chance Copperpot weighs in, and I mean, Chance lives in Seattle, so clearly he knows everything about music. Yeah, clearly. Bill Hooker, "Enjoy having you guys on for three hours.
13:45
Without the extra, I might not know things like Mike Tomlin's never had a losing season." Oh. So far so good for Tomlin, trying to get through another one. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, it is time.
13:54
I don't know if we have a musical intro for this. Nope, not yet. But we s- but we sure have a visual one. It's Wishnev Wednesdays. Check this out. Bam. Oh. Purple Todd. Look at that.
14:04
Thanks again to, uh, Wapizi Capital, our guy on, uh, on Twitter who, uh, AI'd this, ChatGPT'd this for us. Wishnev turning purple- And then the show cleaned it up, yeah... on the Megapod.
14:13
Here's Todd Wishnev courtesy of Progressive Guest Line from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, all gussied up. Look at you. How you doing, Toddy?
14:22
You might have seen the next color past purple, because there must be a color past purple.
14:28
This Saturday when, I don't know if anybody noticed this, they probably didn't 'cause it was way at the end of the University of Tennessee football game. Oh.
14:37
But I happen to have under 81 and a half in the Tennessee-UAB game. This was outrageous. I also had team total over for, uh- Yeah... Tennessee first half. But I also bet under 81 and a half, and the score was 56 to 17.
14:53
For those who are, do the advanced math, that's 73. UAB's driving, under a minute to play. You can't lose this bet. It is impossible, 'cause even if they get a touchdown, that's only 80.
15:05
Well, UAB goes in with 48 seconds to play in the ballgame. It's now 56-24. That's 80. That's under 81 and a half. It's a winner, folks. It's a winner.
15:15
Stevie Fezzik would've called it a winner 25 minutes earlier- [laughs]... but it's a winner. Now, now they kick the ball off, okay? And Tennessee hands the ball off like they're supposed to.
15:28
They're probably just supposed to take a knee at this point. They're up 56-24. They hand the ball off. That's fine. I don't begrudge them that. They hand the ball off. They go out to, like, the 44-yard line.
15:38
It's now, uh, somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 seconds left. You're not supposed to run any more plays. The play clock is running. You're up 56-24. The game is over. They run to the line, throw a
15:53
nine- a, I'm sorry, a four-one yard pass down to the 15-yard line of UAB, and now there's, like, under 15 seconds left, and I'm like, "Well, they're not gonna throw a, play, do another play." [laughs] Oh, yes they are.
16:06
Wait, here they come- [laughs]... running up to the line in hurry up and throw a ball into the end zone, thankfully incomplete, and then finally decide to take a knee after that with two seconds left.
16:20
I literally was going to... I, I, honestly, I may have flown down to Tennessee and done something terrible. Oh, don't say that. Because I have never in my life- [laughs] I've seen, by the way, I've seen it all.
16:32
I've seen teams, remember Luke Fickell running- Yes... the hurry up up 37-6, but sure, they're on that side of the field. It's still obnoxious.
16:41
It's still incredibly egregious, but at least they were on inside the 20 and they were like, "Oh, we wanna get a score for our guys." This started on their own 25 with 48 seconds left, and they're up 56-24.
16:54
There's absolutely no excuse for running hurry up at this point other than Mr. Heupel knows that the point spread was 38 and 39 the entire week. Yes, he does. Yep.
17:04
And it's 56 to 24, and he's doing this, but still, we've never seen this before. This is a whole nother level of evil. I'm sorry, folks. This is evil incarnate.
17:15
Yeah, it's, it's worse than anything Lane Kiffin, that we remember Lane Kiffin doing necessarily, and it, it is clear- Or James Franklin...
17:21
or James Franklin, but p- put Josh Heupel top of list of who knows the point spread when you're thinking about in-game bets with Tennessee, 'cause he clearly knew, and Todd was losing- Yeah...
17:31
his mind, losing his mind, and justifiably so. Uh, real quick, I, I love, uh, I love guest-on-guest crime here on the show. You and your, uh, your Megapod cohort, Will Hill, both on the show today.
17:42
Will Hill was talking about the, uh, the end of regulation in the Mercury-Lynx game last night.
17:49
Mercury famously coming back from a 20-point deficit to win in overtime, but they did so because they scored a ga- they had a game-tying three.
17:57
I believe it was Whitcomb who, who had the, uh, game-tying three with mere ticks of the clock left, and Will was saying, "Hey, man, we talk about it in the NBA where teams don't foul up three late.
18:07
We should also criticize teams in the WNBA that don't do it." And to that you say? Well, of course Will is correct.
18:15
They should do it, but they have not, and then [laughs] you have to- if you watch the WNBA, you realize they have not even mastered the regular foul game.
18:23
[laughs] They don't understand when they're down five with twenty-eight seconds left and the shot clock's at twenty-four that they have to foul very often.
18:33
So i- to get them to understand advanced levels of fouling, like foul when you're up three so the other team doesn't hit a three, of course it's correct, and Will's 100% right.
18:41
But let's start back a couple steps where they can't even get the last-minute fouling correct in a regular game when it's, you know, down six or down five or down four, and there's thirty seconds left with the shot clock at twenty-four.
18:53
They don't understand. They're, they're down two possessions.
18:55
Th- even with the fact that you can call a timeout and advance the ball in WNBA, they just have no idea, and they screw it up all the time in regular WNBA games. You just can't even believe what you're watching often.
19:07
You're like, you have the over, and there's like thirty-two seconds left. Oh, well, of course you're gonna get a foul, and then a basket, and a foul. No, not WNBA.
19:14
You never know what could happen in the WN- Uh, my favorite Wishnev thing is, uh, bets that you think about and you voice but then you don't follow up with an actual bet I believe are five bajillion, four hundred thousand and five in one lifetime because when you don't follow it up with an actual bet.
19:33
Um, but my second favorite thing is when you are on the right side of a bet, you've got a winner coming home, and then you're making the calculus of, "Now, should I try to middle this or not?"
19:45
Um, you often lament at you turning a one and oh into a one and one. Explain when you do that and when you shouldn't and all that.
19:54
So typically, my rule for if you're ahead, should you try for the middle is do you not like your bet anymore?
19:59
If you don't like your bet anymore and you like that other side bet that you're getting, then you should probably go for a middle. Now, do I always listen to myself? No.
20:09
And I think it also depends whether you're in the National Football League or in the college football. I'll give you a perfect example. Lions playing the Ravens this week. I had- or a couple days ago.
20:18
I had the Ravens money line when they were down seven. I took a minus one thirty. I took the Ravens, so I have the Ravens money line minus one thirty. Now, Baltimore goes ahead twenty-one fourteen.
20:30
So now R- Ravens are up fourteen. Because they were the favorite pregame, they're minus six and a half, but you can, you can buy up and get the seven on places that have the alternate lines in-game.
20:40
You could probably get the plus seven at, I don't know, minus one thirty-five or minus one four, whatever it might be. And at that point, I'm saying to myself, "Wait a second. The Ravens defense is horrendous."
20:50
And especially in the National Football League, maybe not so much in college, but especially in the National Football League, if you don't have good defense, cannot win by a margin 'cause you will always give up the backdoor touchdown.
21:01
At that point, I'm saying to myself, "I really should be on the Lions plus seven right here because there's just no way Baltimore's winning this game [laughs] by more than seven, if they win it at all."
21:11
So of course I, I dilly-dallied. "Should I do it? Should I..." Then finally it was tied, and I had a chance to get plus three. I went over to the machine, actually tried to get plus three. Couldn't get it.
21:20
Finally, I let it go and didn't get it, and of course we see what happens. Lions come back to win.
21:25
So that would've been a perfect example where [laughs] I, I could have turned a, what ended up being an oh-and-one into a one-and-one.
21:31
That's the other side of the middle coin, is what if you lose the original bet and you bought insurance because you were smart to realize, "Hey, [laughs] the Ravens aren't winning this game by more than seven.
21:41
Their defense is atrocious, and the Lions offense is actually pretty very good," right? So [laughs] how are the, how are the Ravens going to win this game by margin? It just cannot happen.
21:51
Even if the Ravens get ahead by fourteen, there's still gonna be the backdoor touchdown. So i- it's just like a situation where what are you doing sitting there dilly-dallying? Get your ass up and get the bet plus seven.
22:03
If you have to go to the kiosk and do it, just do it.
22:06
And real quick, if, if you can fit this in in forty seconds, uh, talk about fourth downs and how difficult it is for, for these teams to stop offenses and how you can exploit that betting.
22:16
Yeah, I mean, we talked about what happened when the Ravens didn't go for fourth down against the Bills that week and then when the Lions did go for it on fourth down this week.
22:24
I think people and coaches in general, they don't understand getting a stop is not the same as getting a stop in the middle of the game.
22:31
There's thirty-three percent more downs when the team has to go for it on fourth down, third down, and then an extra down. That's thirty-three percent more downs.
22:40
That is a much harder get a stop, and I think these teams don't realize it. You know, you saw what happened to the Arizona Cardinals- Todd-... third and nine. They missed. They, they dropped the ball. We got- Boom.
22:50
We gotta run, but bettors can exploit that with big plus money bets in those moments. Coming back. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:06
Don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros.
23:14
We invite you to check them out at sharpplays.com. Not the sharp plays, just sharpplays.com. We get tweets, Pete in the book, "Respect the process.
23:23
Gil, I don't think people understand how mentally hard it is to lose weight.
23:27
The mental game, uh, stay consistent, not settle for where you are, and then if you take a few days of getting back on track," uh, if you s- you, you, if you take a two, few days off I think he means, it's tough to get back on track.
23:38
Well done, Kelly my boy. Respect. Oh, thanks man. That means a lot. I've be- I've been juicing. I've had some help along the way, there's no doubt about that. Hmm. Okay. But, uh- Yeah. Still holds true, man,
23:50
especially the gym stuff. You get out of that process for a, for a week or something, that's tough to get back into. Oh, it's tough. It is a mental... It's, it's mentally taxing.
23:57
Johnny Ringo, "I think Todd just penned what should be their new slogan, the WNBA, you never know." It's kind of, uh, the cousin of Jeff Parley's College Football, it is what it is.
24:07
Col- [laughs] College Football, it is what it is. We also get texts, by the way. Meltzer like seltzer, "Hey, uh, Earth, Wind & Fire, uh, October tenth through the twenty-fifth at The Venetian."
24:17
Yeah, but you know, Maurice White has passed away, so it's just not the same. And then, uh, Stevie Fezzik Stevie Fezick, uh, live, live texting.
24:24
Oh, talking about the Michael Taylor checkup in center field yesterday for the White Sox against the Yankees. He says, "MLB Analytics drops the ball in such situations. A single count, a single count..."
24:35
See, w- with Ste- Steve doesn't text, he voices these, so you have to, like, you know, edit on the fly. He said, "A single counts the same as a triple. Your outfielders have to come in 10 feet, 10 feet.
24:45
White Sox situation last night." Yeah, I think he was in. He just decided, "I'm not gonna dive. Just not gonna dive for it." Um, so there's that as well.
24:54
If their play- playoff lives were on the line, he would've di- Yes... go for it. He would totally go for it.
25:00
By the way, I just wanna clarify something at the end, 'cause I ran Todd into the wall, so I apologize to, uh, Todd Wishnov, star of Wishnov Wednesdays.
25:06
Um, but, uh, what we're getting at also at the end is, you know, the end of that, uh, the Cardinals-Niners game, when the Cardinals were, like, third and nine on that final drive of theirs, and the Niners were poised to get the ball back if they make a stop.
25:19
Those moments in in-game, on the th- like, before the th- on the third and nine, you can almost get the Niners at, like, seven to one to win the- Mm.
25:26
Like, the, the drop-off from that one play to stopping, I don't wanna, like, exaggerate the drop-off- It's huge... but it is a market drop-off for that one play, obviously, for obvious reasons.
25:38
So the price before that play, you can't...
25:41
They, what he was trying to say, well, we, we didn't get around to it, or not that he was trying to say it, but we didn't get around to him saying is, he's, his point is you can't tell him that that's not a good number, 'cause it is so much higher, it feels like, than it should be with just one play to take care of.
25:55
So I, I agreed. The only th- I, and I don't remember the exact situation. Yeah. So w- was there a stoppage? The only, that's the only problem. Well, that's the problem. Right? That's the problem with all of this.
26:05
It's, if, if it is, if there's no stoppage on the field, you are usually behind the play. You're really gambling then. You're really gambling. That's all, that's all, that's all I would say. Yes. I would agree with that.
26:15
It's a good, that's a good counter to the counter. Um, should we do some, uh, some Win Total Wednesday? Yeah. Let's do it. Let's do it. Are the guys looking over or under?
26:27
It's another edition of Win Total Wednesday on The Numbers Game. [rock music] Well, you know, it's not always an over-under. It's not. It just has to be win totals of some kind. Just wins.
26:39
[laughs] Could be, could be wins in different markets, but we call it Win Total Wednesdays. Uh, this is NFL fewest regular season wins. By the way, whoever put up fewest instead of least, mazel tov to you.
26:51
That's the correct word. Fewest regular season wins. Um, it's interesting 'cause the Saints, the Saints are the short shot at plus 240, the Titans are three to one, and the Giants are four to one.
27:04
All those teams are O and three, as are the Dolphins, who are a lot more distant at 11 to one. I have a play on the Dolphins, right around that same number. It is that exact same number, I believe.
27:14
Uh, Jets, who are also O and three, are 12 to one. Dolphins play the Jets this week. Obviously, the team that loses that will drop in this. Um,
27:23
and then everybody else has themselves at least one win, except for the Texans, who are 25 to one. You get the O and three Texans at 25 to one. Does that interest you at all? No? Nothing? Nothing? Uh, no. No. No.
27:35
Yeah, not me either. But, like, I don't think it's a dead ticket. How about that? [laughs] I don't, I don't either. They could be in the race.
27:41
[laughs] I don't either, but if, but the question is, if you were to bet this now, who would you bet? I have- Panthers 20 to one. Panthers 20 to one? Yeah. I have a Panthers ticket, too, but at 11, at 12 to one.
27:53
That's where, 'cause I remember I was kinda beating myself up last week for not joining you on that. I thought it was a great bet by you last week. It's one game, man. One, one, one win. Yep.
28:02
Panthers rock it up to 20 to one. I just, like, look, they, we're still early enough in the season. We love this market. I love talking about this market all year long. We're still early enough in the season, though.
28:14
I think you need to just, just try, try to be identifying who's a bad team, who's a good team, and not getting too obsessed with what the schedule b- plays out with. Yeah. You know what I mean?
28:24
Like, we, when we start talking about this in week eight, week nine, you and I lean a lot on that, right? What does your remaining schedule look like? We can an- kinda analyze that a little bit better.
28:33
This is still early enough in the season. At 20 to one, I, I'm gonna go shop around and I pr- I might make this bet today.
28:39
I have, again, I have the Dolphins and Panthers in this market, but if y- here's the thing, though. W- what's the responsible thing to bet?
28:47
Uh, everything you said makes sense, and I, and again, I'm involved in this two different ways. But there's one team we're not mentioning that I think is still the best bet.
28:58
Panthers and Dolphins, I love the number, but the best bet to me is the Giants. The New York Football Giants, who are the third short shot here, and are four to one. Is that what they were? Yeah. Four to one?
29:07
Four to one. I know that's not a, as sexy a number as the other ones, but man. Like, you know in baseball, we always do, oh, remaining strength of schedule, aggregate opponent win percentage.
29:16
We don't usually do that in football, right? We just go through the schedule one game by one game.
29:20
If you do it with the Giants, though, right, it's the second-hardest schedule from this point forward in all of football based on three games win percentage.
29:29
So that's not really a, a truly good way of doing it, 'cause it's a small sample size. By the way, the Rams, by far the hardest of the remaining schedule. A lot of that has to do with the fact that their division, right?
29:39
Uh, their division opponents are seven and two combined. Mm-hmm. So it's not really the best way to do it.
29:44
But if you go through the Giants' schedule game by game, already O and three, and now rookie quarterback Jackson Dart at the helm starting this week as six-and-a-half-point home dogs against the Chargers.
29:55
I just wanna point out that
29:58
after the Saints game next week, it's Eagles at Broncos in elevation, at Eagles twice in a three-week span, Niners at home, then at Bears, home Packers, at Lions, [laughs] at Patriots, bye Commanders, Vikings, Raiders, Cowboys to, to close it out.
30:15
The point I wanna make is not only is the schedule brutal, but that the, quote-unquote, "easier games" are all on the road. Mm-hmm. At Saints- Yep... at Bears, at Patriots, at Raiders.
30:30
So, I mean, what's, what's the easiest game on this schedule? Not till like week 16 or 18- Yeah... when they have a home game against, you know, the Vikings and Cowboys respectively.
30:42
That's the quirk of the Giants' schedule. This is why it was the very first bet I made in the off-season, the under five and a half. And was there a moment late in the off-season where I was like, "Oh, I don't know"?
30:50
Yeah, but I n- I, not like I got off it.
30:53
I still thought it was a great bet, and I still think at four to one, them having the fewest wins, based on what I just said, when your easy games, the few easy games you have on paper, 'cause you know how this goes, right?
31:06
Who knows what we think is an easy game now versus five weeks from now, let alone 10 weeks from now. But the easier ones are all on the road, almost to a game.
31:17
Like, with, with only, like, one exception at the very end of the year. So the Giants at four to one with a rookie quarterback, to me, even though I have the Dolphins and Panthers because of the number,
31:27
I just think that's the best bet on the board. I, I don't, I, I can't really push back too much on that. I, uh, I'm just kinda laughing, looking at that schedule.
31:34
Me and you might be sweating out that win total at the end of the year. [laughs] I don't think we're gonna sweat it out at all. Yeah, hopefully not. Um- What, what did I say early in the season?
31:41
What, what did I say about the Giants? That if they don't win that, remember I said this, that if they don't win that game five game at New Orleans, do you remember me saying this? That it could be an epically- Mm-hmm...
31:50
long run of losses. Mm-hmm. And people sort of laughed at that when I said that, but I will stick by that. If they lose that game five at New Orleans, you could be looking at, that would be O and five.
32:02
It is not an issue to look at O and nine easily right after that. Oh, totally, 100%. If not more. I was really just talking about Raiders and Cowboys those last couple weeks. That might f- actually be beatable teams.
32:12
Yeah, but you gotta- I, I-... you gotta get to four before that to make that matter. R- right, you're right. Yeah. I, no, I agree with you though.
32:18
The, the, I think the biggest thing I wanted to bring up here, Saints and Titans, as bad as they might be, those divisions are just so awful, Gil. Yes. Like, I couldn't make one of those bets- That's right...
32:29
just because of that. That's exactly right. Like, they're, they're j- they could just stumble into a couple wins.
32:34
I know the Saints looked terrible last week, but i- i- we all thought they, I, like, I still think it's the worst roster in football.
32:40
Um, I think the Titans are maybe actually trying to push them here to show that off early in the season, [laughs] that they might not be too far behind.
32:47
But I still think those, those divisions are so bad that the, both those teams are gonna end up picking up one or two more wins than they should. Yeah.
32:55
Uh, I love that these markets are still up, and they're always up week after week at a, at a shop like DraftKings or FanDuel, which we had that kind of stuff up all the time. Yeah. We don't here in the state of Nevada.
33:05
[laughs] When this state gets legalized betting, boy oh boy. Who do you th- who do you think on this board, no chance? Uh, the, I think the Raiders is no chance.
33:16
I, I do think, like, the T- They'll eventually get it together a little bit. Yeah. Yeah. They'll win some games. I agree. I think the Texans is probably no chance. Agreed.
33:24
Um- Bears, Bengals may be a little too f- far to- Listen, Bears fans, I, I even think Caleb Williams will win some games. Like, I don't th- I don't think they're gonna have the worst.
33:33
I bring this up 'cause I, I brought it up that way 'cause, like, Jets, Browns. I don't really think the Jets and Browns are gonna end up in this conversation at the end here.
33:38
Browns shouldn't be in that conversation either. Yeah. And the Jets probably not either.
33:41
Yeah, but I, I, I do think the responsible bet here is the Giants at four to one, even though, again, full disclosure, I do have the Dolphins and the Panthers at nicer numbers. We'll recap all the bets on the other side.
33:53
It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:10
Back with A Numbers Game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. And when I say downtown, I mean majestic, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. Yeah. It don't get no better than this.
34:19
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin in the hizzy. We get tweets of beating the book. "Nathan Henry, Wishneb Wednesday for more than one segment. Keep up the great work." Yeah, I kinda ran him into the wall.
34:29
We need more than one segment with Todd. We need more, we needed more than one segment with a few of our guests today. Mm-hmm. Nick Whalen also- Mm-hmm... we needed more. Greg Peterson, we needed more.
34:39
Will Hill, we always need more. Well. You know? Yeah. Happens. Well, I guess, four, hour number four. [laughs] Right. Yes. [laughs] Hour number four, here we come. [laughs] Be careful, Gil. I just got a note.
34:50
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I just got a note in my ear from, uh, from the guys behind the glass. Remember we were getting to the show with us talking about how the whole crew could fight? [laughs] We might find out, Gil.
34:58
That's right. Kevin Ryan, "Gil is a holder on under 92 and a half wins on the Yankees. I may have nightmares about the wild pitch and non-effort on the fly ball last night.
35:06
Hope I'm wrong, but I got sick feeling in my gut." Yeah, man, I, I think the Yankees are gonna get there. I think they're gonna win the division, and I think Kelly Bidlin's wonderful minus two- Yeah, 220?
35:17
Two- July 4th or something like that... 220 ticket's gonna come home. 'Cause didn't they have like, didn't they have, like, an epically terrible July?
35:23
I made it, like, right at the begi- beginning of July, and it was like the month was horrible. Oh, you just reminded me. September wins, by the way, for those who, uh, bet this. Yeah, what do we got?
35:32
Uh, the Guardians are your leader, 'cause of course they are. Of course. Uh, Guardians have a two-win lead over the Mariners. Two-win lead over the Mariners. I'll get you the exact record here, uh, momentarily.
35:44
But the Guardians with a two-win lead over the Marin- There it is. 16 and five are the Guardians. 14 and five are the Mariners. Everybody else, so the Phillies are 13 and six, and then everybody else is kinda donezo.
35:55
It's really a three-team race at this point it feels like. Guardians, look at them. Still with a negative run differential. 13 games above 500. Bastards. Geez. [laughs] Every day I come in.
36:10
One was a rock solid- Wait, wait, wait, say that again. They still have a negative run differential. Despite up 46 this month alone? That is correct, sir. Man.
36:18
I think, I think they're minus six, if I'm not mistaken, uh, for the season. I'm just doing off the top of the dome here. Uh, we'll check that out. Uh, but yeah, 13 games above 500.
36:27
So in other words, if you do the Bill James You know, Pythagorean theorem, what they're, what they should be. Do you like to know what they should be?
36:37
I would imagine it would be like a game below 500 at this point, or two games below 500. Yeah. Their win expectancy would be, according to Bill James, 78 and 79. That's what they should be. 78 and 79. Makes sense.
36:50
Six, uh... Is it minus six? Uh, let me see. I don't know. I didn't pull it up, sir. Yes, it is minus six on the Cleveland Guardians. [laughs] It's amazing. Just absolutely amazing. Every- That's crazy...
37:01
just to give you a sense of other teams, Yankees plus 145, Red Sox plus 108, Jays plus 63. Yankees plus 145? Tigers plus, Tigers plus 70, Mariners plus 69,
37:13
Phillies plus 121, Mets plus 58, Brewers plus 173, Cubs plus 123, Dodgers plus 125, Padres plus 68. That's crazy. One of these things is not like the other- [laughs] That is crazy... boys and girls. Man. Wow.
37:27
Uh, this is also from, uh, Brian M. "They weren't on the list, but the Patriots may be worth a look for fewest wins." How about that? "May is tied for second-most sacks. He was top 20 last year in 13 games.
37:39
The run game has not been there. The D looks ugly." I don't hate that. Where is that number at? What was their number, fewest wins on the Pats? 70 to 1. 70 to 1. Let's re- I don't hate it.
37:50
I like Drake May, but I, the rest of that roster, uh, no clue. We gotta, we get, as, as much as we, uh, killed Caleb last year with the, uh, nothing special, right?
37:59
The, the Merrill Hodge thing, Drake maybe versus Drake probably, I think we'll have to lean into that, the Cousin Sal nickname. Yeah. Yeah.
38:06
Uh, let's recap all the best bets from today's show and this week, uh, in my case, uh, courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
38:13
Once again, the tennis plays because the tour is in Asia, because it's, uh, the women's tour is in Beijing.
38:20
Men also in Asia, but the women's 1000 is in Beijing, and we had a two and 0 last night, again, five in a row in tennis, up 20-plus units since the end of Wimbledon.
38:30
I won't, most, most likely I won't have them on the show because of the time zone difference, and I go to handicap at some point during the day for that night's matches.
38:39
So if you're a VSiN Pro subscriber, uh, VSiN Pro subscriber, that's how you will get those at vsin.com/picks. Uh, the football ones, though, again, these are all from Guessing Lines.
38:47
On Monday, Panthers plus five and a half at the New England Patriots.
38:51
Chargers minus five and a half, I'm a little a- ahead of that, a point better than what it is now, at the New York Giants, Jackson Dart starting, of course, for the Giants.
38:59
And then the Ravens minus two and a half, you can still get this, at the Kansas City Chiefs, the marquee matchup of the weekend in the National Football League.
39:07
In a weekend, you were saying this off air, not the sexiest matchups in the NFL this week. Is that what you were saying? Oh, no, I was talking about the next week. Oh, next week. Yeah, next week. Oh, [laughs] great.
39:16
Ne- next week is one of the worst, the worst slate of games I've- Really?... remember seeing in a long time. Yeah. It's a tough survivor week too. Would you like me to review names without- Yeah, please...
39:27
without lines for you? Please. Sure. Or I'll pull it up again. Yeah. Pull it up again. This'll be fun.
39:31
Next week in the next- Look ahead lines have come out, so I know I gotta make sure I don't say that part 'cause maybe Kelly's done that before on accident. Don't do that. Uh, how about Dolphins...
39:39
Uh, first of all, overseas, this is London net, right? Vikings, Browns. Mm-hmm. Meh. Uh, Dolphins at Panthers. Mm. Cowboys at the Jets. Ooh. Raiders at the Colts. Uh, Giants at the Saints. Oh, God.
39:56
I, I will bring this up because it's, uh, one of the bigger ones on the board. Texans at the Ravens 'cause the Texan- Texans ain't very good right now. Nope. Uh, Titans at Cardinals. [laughs] That's really bad, man.
40:08
[laughs] Uh, Patriots and Bills. I mean, that's just, I think one-sided. We say all this to say we're still very grateful football's here 'cause God help us in July. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. God help us in July.
40:19
Absolutely. Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, tho- I just ran off like five games though that I, just gross. I don't even wanna watch. What you got bets-wise? NFL, for me, we share Chargers and Ravens.
40:32
Uh, and then I took the seven and a half with the Titans, yay. Uh, laid three with the Eagles. [laughs] Laid three with the Eagles. Um, and then I am all over that Packers side.
40:42
That is, uh, that is what I'm probably gonna end up laying some alts with as well. I think that they end up smoking, uh, the Cowboys. Um, okay, Ryder Cup, I'll go into more detail on this tomorrow. Long shots up now.
40:54
Go check that out. Myself, Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, uh, YouTube and at wherever you get your podcasts. I did play the Europe side here behind me, plus 180.
41:04
I do think it's important to note though, Gil, this is, uh, we talk about this with some sporting events, this is all gonna be, this is gonna be all US money basically coming in at US sports books between- Just wait...
41:15
now and start. Yeah. If you're looking at Europe like I am, I don't really think there's any reason to rush.
41:20
We have seen this price mainly go, at most places, go from about plus 150 to plus 170 just in the pla- past week.
41:27
I only played plus 180 yesterday 'cause Circa's the only book on the planet that I saw with that good of a number. So I, I did jump in yesterday. And then I have two props that I have played so far.
41:37
Rory McIlroy, this is not sexy, it's not fun. Rory McIlroy even money to finish top three, uh, European point score. Yeah. All you gotta do is finish top three on the Euro side.
41:47
When you are looking at making some of these prop bets on some of the golfers a- before the Ryder Cup, there's, the most important question you gotta ask yourself, Gil, is how many sessions are they gonna play?
41:57
They can play anywhere from one, zero to five. Rory McIlroy's, Rory McIlroy, and I would think Scottie Scheffler, although he did not do it last time, they're about the only two that you can lock in for five sessions.
42:09
So gives yous, gives you the most opportunities to rack up points, went Rory there. Uh, and then the only one I made this morning, I played Matt Fitzpatrick over one and a half total points.
42:18
Fitzpatrick's been playing great end of la- uh, end of the PGA tour season. I think it carries over into the Ryder Cup.
42:24
Uh, it's great advice about, for those of us who are thinking about betting Team Europe, uh, to wait. It's only gonna get better. I'm gonna do that.
42:32
I'm, I'm gonna bet the, the whatever it is at, you know, when the- But you do it Friday morning, yeah The whole Ryder Cup begins on Friday, yeah, because it's +180 now.
42:40
And I, again, um, I understand there's the, the to-win market, and there's to-lift-the-cup market, and the to-lift-the-cup market gives you tie protection, but you don't get as much bang for your buck. But I am not...
42:51
You know, you mentioned there's only been two times that it's tied. Even if it's close, the chances of it ending up at 14-14 is very slim. So I will go for the big money on the +180. Will Hill was here earlier.
43:03
He's on the Mets today against the Cubs, +103, as the Mets drive towards the postseason. Guardians-Tigers, the big one in the AL Central. He's on the first five, under four and a half.
43:13
He's got José Ramírez walk first at-bat. It's seven to one. He hit this in double digits yesterday. Jacob deGrom going for the, uh, Rangers, under six and a half strikeouts.
43:23
And then college football, he's on Arkansas +4 points, and he's on the Oregon-Penn State under 10 and a half first quarter. The hook is important. Greg Peterson, baseball all day. Nationals-Braves over nine runs.
43:35
That's in the morning. Orioles moneyline and over in that ballgame, over eight and a half runs. Reds moneyline against the Pirates and under seven runs in that ballgame.
43:44
Guardians on the moneyline and over seven and a half runs in that ballgame with the Tigers. Cubs moneyline against the Mets. He's oppo Willy on that one.
43:52
Rangers run line, minus one and a half runs, +120, and over seven and a half runs in that ballgame. And the Giants against the Cardinals tonight at Oracle. Siyathat Najee, USA to win the Ryder Cup.
44:03
Scottie Scheffler, top US points scorer, three to one. Tommy Fleetwood, top European points scorer, six to one. Top US debutant, Cam Young, +220. Top Englishman, Tommy Fleetwood, +135.
44:14
It's all brought to you by GBank, the official bank of VSiN. And don't forget, with GBank, uh, they are always doing things with sports betting, built with sports bettors in mind.
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Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. Prop Points with John Hansen is next. Enjoy, from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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