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Sep 26, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 26, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 26, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Midlin, producer number nine.
0:22
So much more than a producer. So much more. Yeah, that's right. Practicing our Espanol before the show. Yes, you were. It's very important. We, we have to do that.
0:29
Would you like, would you like to tell people what you learned? Los Gigantes verse Los Vaqueros tonight. [laughs] There- On Thursday Night Football... there it is, guys.
0:37
[laughs] On Thursday Night Football, uh, for those in s- for those, uh, listening in Spanish, there you go. That's what we're doing today. We're gonna talk, uh, Thursday Night Football here momentarily.
0:45
We have to talk about these absolutely unbelievable developments on the National League side of things in this wildcard race in baseball. Uh, Zach and Crack today, though. That's the main thing.
0:55
Zach Cohen talking football with us, VSiN senior editor, both pro and college ball, and then of course unscripted with the Crack man, Bill Krackenberger. Hope his leg is doing better- Yeah...
1:06
after his, uh, fall into the pool. Yeah, that was scary. Do we have footage of the fall with the, with the hat, with the Kangol floating? [laughs] I no- no, I don't, I don't think he wants that footage released.
1:14
[laughs] Oh. All right. Um, you know, he's okay now, so we can kind of, uh, have some levity about it. Yeah.
1:19
We have to start with baseball, 'cause this was, beyond the, uh, the UNLV NIL caper yesterday, this to me was the biggest story in sort of American sports yesterday, which is, first of all, let's just talk about our bets through the prism of our bets, right?
1:31
National League, Tigers, everybody in the N- in the, uh, American League wildcard race won yesterday, so that means both the Tigers and Royals won. The Twins, who are chasing them, won.
1:40
Even the Mariners, who are a half game even further back, uh, they won as well.
1:45
So the T- the Twins, excuse me, pardon me, the Tigers and the Royals, which we have the Tigers plus 450 to make the postseason here, uh, two game lead over the Minnesota Twins, two and a half over Seattle, headed into the last four games of the season.
2:00
So it ain't done yet, but it's looking good. By the way, uh, Detroit now to make the playoffs, minus 2,000. Whoa. After we got them at plus 450 last week. By the way, this is a great point about late-season baseball.
2:11
It's a great point about late season every sport, but late-season baseball especially. You can jump in and make great bets late, and I'm talking about hella late.
2:19
That was for the Bay Area folks out there so they could understand. Hella late on these. So- Yeah, you'd, you'd like to say the same things, or I'd like to say the same things- Yeah...
2:26
about, like, NBA and stuff, but it doesn't even fully compare. It's not. It really doesn't. It really doesn't. Yeah.
2:30
And, and by the way, this is exactly what Major League Baseball wanted by adding a third wildcard, so we should take advantage of it as bettors.
2:37
Uh, National League is where it has gotten super fascinating, and by fascinating I mean what the hell did R- what the hell is Rob Manfred and the commissioner's office doing? So
2:48
yesterday, w- and Jason and I, when w- Jason was on yesterday, we sort of speculated about this in real time. Sure. Yeah, yeah. We're like, "Okay, Hurricane Helene is coming. They've known it's been coming.
2:59
Why didn't they move one of," Atlanta had beaten The Mets in the first of a three-game set, "on Wednesday?" W- excuse me, "on Tuesday?
3:07
Why didn't they, they move up game two to earlier yesterday knowing this hurricane was coming?"
3:14
And so what ends up happening is they postpone yesterday's game number two of the three-game set and today's game number three.
3:20
And again, we always, the disclaimer, I hope everybody that is going to be affected in those regions of the country, uh, the main thing is please stay safe, 'cause this is a, uh, category four that is, that when it hit land, uh, here.
3:33
And so it's going to be absolutely, uh, well, they're calling it a catastrophic hurricane. That's what it's, it's up to a four? That's, that's, well, that's what they say when it lands- Uh-... it's gonna be that.
3:41
So anyway, uh, please obviously take precautions and listen to all of, uh, all of the officials', uh, safety advice on that.
3:48
From a betting standpoint, which is what we do here, Arizona gets a win over the Giants last night.
3:53
Now, we have Arizona in a World Series, uh, in more than one, as we'll find out here later on the show, uh, but Arizona in, in World Series matchups.
4:00
So Arizona t- a- and The Mets, The Mets and the Braves now idle both yesterday and today.
4:06
So Arizona, with three games left, has a one-game lead over Atlanta, and The Mets, with five games left, have a one-game lead over Atlanta. Now, Atlanta has the tiebreakers over both The Mets and the Diamondbacks.
4:18
But here's the dealiosus, and this is the problem with all of this now. This becomes
4:25
just, just incredible to think of, that the Braves and The Mets are most likely, there is a scenario where they wouldn't have to play it, but most likely they're going to play a double header in Atlanta on Monday.
4:38
This creates a scenario now where the Braves might have to play five games in three days. If the Kansas City game on Friday is a washout, then the Braves will have to play a double header against the Royals on Saturday.
4:51
They'll play a game against the Royals on Sunday, and then come back for what will be a playoff-determining double header against The Mets on Monday.
4:58
Further complicating that for the Braves is they have to decide when to pitch Sale and Freed, their two aces.
5:06
If they decide to pitch them early, that's one thing, but you may wanna decide, "Hey, we wanna pitch them against The Mets," 'cause those might end up being the most important games.
5:14
But if you do that, then you have a messed up playoff rotation if you're fortunate enough to advance. So there's that calculus for the Braves as well.
5:23
From The Mets' standpoint, by the way, it's not just a Braves conundrum.
5:27
From The Mets' standpoint, they have problems too, because they play Sunday in Milwaukee, the final game of a three-game set against the Brewers, then the double header in Atlanta on Monday.
5:38
Then if they advance, they might have to very well go to San Diego on Tuesday- Geez... to start, [laughs] start the playoffs if they get in, and that would be four games in 56 hours in three time zones.
5:53
So Major League Baseball, I don't know if this hurricane snuck up on you. At a minimum, you should have played that Atlanta Mets game earlier yesterday to get that one in.
6:03
Let's- Instead, it just completely like, "Uh-oh, there's a hurricane?"
6:06
And so now you have really put those two franchises, the Braves and the Mets, behind the eight ball in so many different ways, and this becomes so and so are the Diamondbacks.
6:14
[laughs] It's always been on the Diamondbacks racket to get into the postseason. They have a three-game set against the Padres.
6:19
That's interesting, too, 'cause if the Padres lose tonight to the Dodgers, the Padres, in essence, won't have anything to play for against the Diamondbacks, which is not 100% true, because there could be a home field thing consideration between a four and five seed, uh, best of three series.
6:35
So, but the division would go out the window, and they wouldn't have that to play for.
6:38
So this is, it's fascinating some so, in so many ways, but it's like adv- it's completely advantage Diamondbacks for one of those two final s- spots, and then the Braves and the Mets, good luck. Good luck.
6:50
Man, that is, that is wild. And we have the Mets to miss. I have it plus 750 personally, but on this show we have it eight to one, the Braves to miss the playoff. So that doesn't hurt us in any way. No, it doesn't.
7:01
Yeah, you are right, though. This scheduling is a nightmare. I, I mean, we talk about it with, like, every sport, but this is- It's incredible... I, I mean, this is just kind of inexcusable. It's, it is malpractice.
7:10
I mean, you guys bro- you and Jason were talking about it- Yeah... right on the show yesterday. Yep.
7:14
And I, I, d- I mean, the fact that, yeah, the fact that you could have squeezed one in yesterday, it's one thing to play, 'cause if the, what, if they had gotten one in yesterday, then what?
7:23
They might have to play Monday, right? But it would just be one game instead of a doubleheader situation.
7:28
There is a scenario where they wouldn't have to play the doubleheader if the s- if the Braves got swept, for instance, by Kansas City, and the Mets went two and one, and the Diamondbacks went one and two.
7:38
Like, there's a scenario where it wouldn't have to be played. Okay. And the Braves would have to be eliminated, but it's a r- it's a really remote scenario. Yeah, it is. Yeah. I- it's not how, like, any team- No...
7:46
should be heading into a, into a playoff game. Brutal. Absolutely brutal. All right, Thursday Night Football tonight, Dallas at the Giants. Dallas favored by six now, headed into this, uh, tilt at MetLife.
7:56
Does anybody use the word tilt anymore? Uh, uh, I think a few people. Okay. Mm. You know what the weirdest thing is? Do you see this stat from, uh, Ed Werder?
8:02
The Cowboys have never played an away game with just three days between matchups. They have never played a road game with this little rest.
8:12
Every other team in the NFL has played at least six road games with limited rest. So the Cowboys experiencing something for the first time. [laughs] That is insane. Um, the- The NFL schedule making- Well-...
8:22
and how much they love the Cowboys. Part, well, part of that is, remember, you used to only be able to, th- they l- they capture Thursday games at 1:00. Mm-hmm.
8:30
And since the Cowboys already had the built-in home game on Thursday on Thanksgiving, they never had to do this. By the way, the Li- Oh, right. Yeah...
8:39
the Lions' first time, the Lions are in a similar situation, their first time having to play a road Thursday game on short rest was last year. So the Cowboys are just mimicking what happened to the Lions last year.
8:48
So that's why we are where we are. Uh, I don't know how you feel about this game. I don't, I don't, uh, you know, this is too many points now for me. The, the total's interesting, 45 and a half.
8:57
I kind of liken this to last week's game between the Jets and the Patriots, which was a dead under also. This kind of feels that way, too.
9:05
Cowboys coming off those, uh, terrible losses to the Saints and Ravens, although they made it cosmetically close against the Ravens, but part of that was recovering an onside kick.
9:13
Giants coming off their first win, uh, beating the Cleveland Browns last week. Dak, uh, and Sean Kerner over at Action does a great job with the Thursday night games, says Dak ranks first in EPA per drop back.
9:23
That's expected, uh, points added per drop back at home, uh, while 10th on the road. Last year, he was 30th on the road. So there's a bit of a strange home-road split with Dak when it comes to that.
9:35
The problem with the Cowboys, uh, n- you know, no Tyron Smith now at left tackle this year, um, after so many years, 13 seasons, five-time Pro Bowler.
9:44
Um, but it took him nine games, just to give you a contrast, it took him nine games to allow eight pressures last season. Nine games for eight pressures. Tyler Guyton, who's replaced him, he's already allowed that many.
9:54
Yeah, this is, uh, I, I mean, I think that's where this game kind of starts and ends, is gonna be in the trenches again.
9:59
I think if you watched any of that Cleveland-New York game last week, you saw how impressive that front four was for the Giants, uh, and, and how much the Browns' offensive line struggled.
10:08
Now, I do think the Cowboys are in a little bit better position, even though, like you said, they, they are not, not like they are in the best offensive line situation this year of any team out there.
10:18
But I think they're gonna be a little better off than Cleveland was last week, just because the injuries that Cleveland had across that line. Um, a couple- Mm...
10:25
injuries in the secondary for, for, uh, New York that I know a lot of people are keying on. Adoree Jackson gonna be out for this game. Uh, so I think that makes it interesting.
10:33
I actually, I don't know what the Giants are gonna do. I expect to see points from Dallas, though. Well, here's, you know, finishing the thought there. Guyton's gonna go against Brian Burns tonight, right?
10:42
Burns has already generated 15 pressures. That's ninth in the league. Lamb has an ankle injury, CD, that he's dealing with.
10:49
Um, I think the big thing also is, and this is, again, our eyes miss this kind of thing, Dallas has allowed opponents to score on 90% of red zone trips. So again, trying to but- Is that good? [laughs]...
10:59
trying to buttress the under here. That kind of thing, though, is, is not a sustainable stat either way, right? That regresses to the mean. So Dallas ought to give up fewer points when an opponent gets into the red zone.
11:13
Yeah. So they're not as bad as they have been. Like, even what was the best team in football, uh, the best defense in football last year, the Browns, were terrible in the red zone.
11:22
They gave up, uh,.71%, excuse me, touchdown percentage 71% of the time. That was the highest. Dallas is at a 90% clip.
11:30
So all of that kind of leads to an under for me tonight, um, 'cause I don't think the Giants are a team to exploit much on the offensive side of the ball either. So under is the play for me at 45 and a half.
11:42
Yeah, sub six, I'd lean Cowboys, but not much here for me. Zach Cohen's thoughts on this and college football as well next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:57
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Sports, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin here on The Numbers Game.
12:08
Uh, we get tweets that feed to the book. Let's Ron Burgundy through a couple tweets, shall we? This is, uh, J. Weiss, New York City, who calls himself International Jesse. You should call yourself International Kelly.
12:17
[laughs] I like that. Cosmopolitan Kelly over here on my left. Yeah, you can't be, but you can't be, and you can't throw NYC on the end- [laughs]... and then be international. That's true.
12:26
Uh, he said, "The Braves had options to make this easier. If this benefits," in quotes, "the Mets, they deserve it.
12:30
Of course, either team playing a double header to get in and then theoretically flying to San Diego to start a playoff series on Tuesday, that's something MLB should be ashamed of. Gross negligence."
12:39
That's exactly right, International Jesse. Yeah. That, i- it's just, it's absolute malpractice.
12:44
I, I, I had said, you know, maybe they could have gotten ahead of the, the hurricane also and played a game, 'cause both teams were idle this past Monday.
12:52
But someone on Twitter, I think correctly, sort of pushed back and was like, "Well, it wasn't 100% known that it was gonna turn into a hurricane then." Yeah. But at a minimum, pushing the game up earlier yesterday.
13:02
There's no excuse for that. This is from Brian Shaver, he says, "Gil, why didn't they play a double header today at a neutral site? Come on, MLB."
13:09
I mean, I'm sh- listen, I was about to say, I was just about to say- I mean-...
13:13
I'm sure they thought of every contingency, but even as it's coming out of my mouth, I'm like, "Maybe they didn't think of any contingencies." I have no idea with these guys.
13:21
Um, and this was not, uh, that one you don't have to put up 'cause that's not about us. Um, yeah, that's, that's another one. That's, I don't think that's for our show. Okay.
13:29
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he comes to us, um, every Thursday as part of the Zack and Crack duo. It's Zack Cohen, everybody. You can follow him on Twitter at BettingonX.
13:37
VSiN senior editor, talking all kinds of sports with us. How you doing, Zack? I'm doing well. How about you guys? I'm doing well. Let, let me start before we get to football, college and pro.
13:46
Are you playing anything in tennis in Beijing or Tokyo? Yeah. I started to put some more picks back up.
13:53
I, I took it slow for, you know, a week or two there, but I am starting to put, you know, probably three to five plays in, in there overnight. Uh, currently right now I have Alexander Bublik against Fabio, uh, Cobolli.
14:04
Not sure what the score is there, but I took Bublik at plus money, ended up being, like, -118 or something like that. So got good closing line value, which means nothing for me in tennis.
14:13
[laughs] Uh, it means nothing for any of us in tennis. The, the interesting thing about this, I'm curious if you feel about this, 'cause again, this is for vsin.com, uh, vsin.com/picks, pros, uh, for VSiN subscribers.
14:25
Every host, every guest, every sport, all of our picks there are at vsin.com/picks, so it pays to subscribe on these. Um, I am one and two this week in tennis, uh, on vsin.com/picks. But I'm the same as you.
14:37
Are you finding that when it comes to the Asian part of this tour now, after the Slams are played, before the ATP and WTA finals, that the timing is weird?
14:47
So we're used to, if it's stateside, we get it, we're here, it's our normal sort of body clock. When it's in, I don't know, Australia or other pla- when it's in Europe, we're kind of used to when those are being played.
14:57
These are at this weird- Yeah... time where it's not overnight, it's not during the day, it's, like, 11:00 PM-ish our time. So I forget they're even played when they're played.
15:07
Are you, are you experiencing that a little bit?
15:09
Yeah, I think I mentioned it last week, like, I hate these tournaments because I feel like I'm waking up to all my results, and I really do not like sleeping through matches [laughs] that I'm, that I'm betting on.
15:18
So i- it is a weird thing to, you know, to kind of deal with on the West Coast. You know, I think you're right. It's starting at a, like, 10:00 PM, 11:00 PM. We're not getting to watch most of these matches.
15:26
We usually get, you know, to do that. So i- it's weird as a tennis handicapper to kind of deal with this portion of the season. Yeah. Zack's got his one match go, uh, match going right now.
15:35
Next match up, uh, 8:00 tonight Pacific Time. Yeah. [laughs] It is what it is. And with, and with football and with baseball, we're not thinking about our, our tennis bets necessarily. Yeah.
15:44
All right, let's talk about football. Let's, let's start with college. Well, do you have anything on tonight's game in, in pro? Let's start there, actually. Dallas and the Giants, anything? I do.
15:52
I'm, I'm playing the Giants. I, I got, I had a really bad number on this 'cause I jumped on it Tuesday morning when I write that column up at vsin.com. I put, you know, Giants plus four and a half.
16:01
I also sprinkled the money line at plus 195. You can get that at better numbers right now if you wanna grab the plus six and plus 210. Uh, I would ex- advise doing it still.
16:10
I, I think that there's some uncertainty with the Giants', you know, injury report right now, but it's nothing that I think is going to be too damning to them in this matchup, where I just kinda think that Dallas has been bullied in the trenches on both sides of the ball this season.
16:23
They're not running very well. They can't stop the run.
16:25
I think that makes it really hard, you know, to blow out any opponent, but especially, you know, a division opponent, and one that I believe is playing, you know, some really solid football right now.
16:34
I think the Giants should be, you know, two and one with a win over a Commanders team that we saw get away from them because of the Graham Gano situation.
16:42
But how good would that look r- right now if we just saw them beat up on the Bengals on Monday Night Football if the Giants were two and one with a win over Washington, which it kind of feels like they have.
16:51
So I think that this Giants offense has looked pretty solid. You know, Malik Nabers has kind of opened up the passing game again.
16:56
I think that Devin Singletary's gonna get going against this, you know, kind of porous Cowboys defensive line, and I just kind of trust the Giants defense to do enough to hang on against that, uh, passing game with Dak Prescott.
17:07
Yeah, Dallas has, uh, given up, they're dead last in EPA per rush attempt allowed. Yeah. Uh, dead last.
17:14
Of course, they have played the great running attacks of the Saints and the Ravens, so we'll see if the Giants, as you say, uh, can sort of follow suit on that.
17:20
But just the, the environment also lending to an under tonight. And again, it's the short turnaround. The Thursday night games tend to be sloppy, uh, over the years.
17:28
Games averaging 2.7 fewer points per game through three games than last year, just league-wide scoring environment. So it's funny, with all the fourth down conversions and all that, it's, scoring continues to regress.
17:43
Um, 45 and a half the total on tonight's game. So not the best of it with the Giants, but you're on the Giants nonetheless. Uh- Yeah... ATS and sprinkling on the money line. Uh, anything on Sunday stick out to you?
17:55
I have the Packers, uh, sorry, the Vikings against the Packers. Uh, I'm taking the money line with the Vikings.
18:01
Uh, I just kinda think that Green Bay's quarterback situation, that's going to hart- hurt against, you know, a defense that we've seen this year is second best in the league, uh, in EPA per play...
18:10
Sorry, scoring defense. Number one in DVOA. Uh, top 10 in both, you know, EPA per play allowed against the pass and the run. Brian Flores has just been unbelievable this season. I've mentioned it on a few shows.
18:20
You saw Brock Purdy go up to them after the 49ers lost to the Vikings and said, "Your scheme is crazy, man." Like, he, he had him really confused.
18:27
Uh, Flores is dialed in with that team, and I kinda just think that, you know, it's, whether it's Jordan Love out there at less than 100% playing with a knee brace and, you know, having compromised mobility, or it's Malik Willis, who is not much of a passer, I think it's really tough to expect the Packers to win in this spot.
18:42
I really like, you know, Matt LaFleur, obviously, but I just think this is a really tough spot against a Minnesota team that's just clicking on both sides of the ball right now. All right, let's go to college.
18:51
Notre Dame and Louisville. Notre Dame has, uh, two wins since their debacle against Northern Illinois a few weeks ago. Uh, the Irish favored by about six and a half here against Louisville. What do you got?
19:02
Yeah, I would buy this up to seven or seven and a half, but I really do like Louisville in this game. I just kinda think that this offense has looked great under Jeff Brohm.
19:09
Again, you know, whether it's, you know, Tyler Shuck in there as a transfer, who's, you know, 25 years old. He's playing some unbelievable football at the quarterback position right now.
19:18
They're 12th in EPA per play on offense, but they're also 29th in EPA per play on defense, and they are very good against the run, which is why I think it's really going to be crucial against this Notre Dame team, because Riley Leonard has started to figure things out a little bit over the last few weeks, but it's mostly been with the use of his legs.
19:35
You know, his numbers as a passer are down to career lows, honestly, at this point right now.
19:40
So I really don't think you can trust him to consistently beat the Cardinals over the top, which is why I think that getting seven or seven and a half would be a really smart move in this game.
19:49
I think it's going to be a little bit, you know, lower in scoring, and I would just wanna have the points. I also kinda think the Cardinals can win this game, uh, you know, outright.
19:57
I think that they might be a better team than Notre Dame. All right, how about Utah/Arizona? Arizona's coming off a bye. Utah staving off a, uh, comeback from Oklahoma State to, uh, beat the Cowboys last week.
20:08
Utah favored by double digits here. Yeah, I think Utah's gonna roll in this game. I just think that Arizona's rushing defense, uh, they're 84th in EPA per play against the run this year.
20:19
They are not going to be able to stop Micah Bernard, who has just been running wild over the last few weeks.
20:23
I think that we've kinda seen with this Utes team that there are a few different identities that they can lean into, whether it's going to be Cam Rising out there being able to throw over the top a little bit, or if it's Isaac Wilson, they will just lean on Bernard in that running game.
20:35
Wilson has shown that he can make, you know, enough throws for this offense to continue to kinda hum, and I think that Utah's defense, uh, is just stellar against the pass.
20:43
So I'm not really worried about what they're going to look like against Fifita and McMillan.
20:47
I know that Arizona is coming off a bye week, but I think I'll take one week of, uh, Kyle Whittingham over two weeks of Brent Brennan. I think that Utah is an absolute wagon this season.
20:57
Uh, I think they're gonna win the Big 12, and once we get Cam Rising back in there, I think that Utah's going to be unbelievable.
21:02
All right, taking Louisville plus the points, even bought it up to seven against the Irish. Uh, laying the wood with the Utes against Arizona, and you have one more, Zach.
21:11
Yeah, I have Rutgers, uh, tomorrow night against Washington, which is just a game that I, I think it's a little bit lines wrong. I, I don't know what it is here.
21:19
I think that Washington's advanced stats profile looks a little bit better than what you've seen out of their traditional stats this year, but Rutgers is 11 and two straight up, and nine and four against the spread.
21:29
As a home favorite under Greg Schiano, uh, they have the number one offensive line according to PFF this season. I think this is a really tough game to expect Washington to win.
21:38
Rutgers usually, you know, gets off to these hot starts in September and cools down later on. I'm not even sure we're gonna see that out of this team.
21:44
I think that they're getting some solid play out of Ethan Kalikmanis at quarterback, you know, putting up career numbers after coming over from, you know, a kind of a lackluster career at Minnesota.
21:53
He's playing well as their quarterback, and I just think that this running game is going to be able to get going against Washington, and I don't really trust the Huskies offense as currently constructed to score a lot of points against the Scarlet Knights.
22:06
I do think Jedd Fisch will figure that out at Washington on offense. Like, he's just such a good coach.
22:10
I think that what we're seeing out of Arizona, you know, so far this season has a lot to do with him leaving and just kinda losing his mind there, but I do think that they will get it figured out eventually.
22:19
Just this is a tough game for them to win. Isn't Lombardi, uh, consulting for, uh, UDub? Is it- Uh, I don't know. I don't know if that's official or not, or I- Is it unofficial?... I don't know what that situation is.
22:27
Okay. I was, I was- Classic Big Ten grudge- So Zach-... grudge match... what's that? A classic Big Ten grudge match here, Ed. [laughs] That's right. Absolutely.
22:35
Um, I, I wanted to start something where I was like, "Oh, you're fading Lombardi. Is that what you're doing?" I didn't mean that. [laughs] Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. @BettingOnX for Zach, by the way.
22:44
All his great stuff there on Twitter. Uh, Shot or No Shot, Kelly's spitballing a new segment next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:39
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Scale Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin live from Circa here on a Numbers Game.
23:47
Uh, before we get to your, uh, your new, uh, segment that you're spitballing here called Shot or No Shot, I like your creativity. Thank you, man. I think it's just gonna be for this week, but yeah.
23:56
[laughs] I li- I, I like when you spitball things live on air. [laughs] Uh, can we have a, uh, can we have a brief sports talk radio discussion? Yeah, let's do it, yeah.
24:03
All right, Derrick Rose Hall of Famer or not, Derrick Rose retiring I'm gonna go with yes. A- a- a- through my two minutes of research of, of, of who's made it in and who hasn't.
24:14
Gil- Gil- Gil brought this up during the break. [laughs] You remember talking about this? I'm like, "Yeah, as long as you don't ask me if he's gonna be in the Hall of Fame or not."
24:19
I think, I think he's very bor- And my reply is, "What else would I ask you?" [laughs] What else would you ask me? Yeah. I think he's very borderline. I think you can argue this either way.
24:27
I think me just very quickly looking up the fact that, like, no MVP has not be- made it into the Hall of Fame pretty much, like, that's a big deal.
24:35
21 points a game, 6.8 assists per game, three time All-Star, All-NBA first team, Rookie of the Year, youngest MVP in NBA history. Yeah. I think, I think he's probably in. I think he's probably in. Great career.
24:49
I mean, like, just from a basketball standpoint, great career. We are always gonna wonder how much better it could've been with a guy that w- had to battle through so many injuries, so many bad injuries.
24:58
So that's what this comes down to, right? Because before he blew out his knee, he was, as a Chicago Bull, the, the three years before he blew out his knee, 20.8 points a game, 25...
25:08
So it was 28- 20.8 and, uh, and six assists. Then in 2010, 2011, 25 points per game, 7.7 assists per game. Yep.
25:17
And then in 2011, uh, 2011-12, 21.8 points a game and 7.9 assists, and that's when he blew out his knee in the playoffs. Yep.
25:26
So it comes down to the NBA MVP award voter, does that person value what a guy could have been- Hall of Fame voter... Hall of Fame, what did I say? MVP. MVP voter. I'm sorry. Hall of Fame voter, pardon me.
25:40
Does, does this person who we know, right, we know what he probably would have been if not for the injuries, does that override, "Hey, but he had the injuries, and here, here's the numbers, and it's not as impressive as these other people"?
25:54
Like, I think that's what it comes down to, right? Yeah. I, that's a b- I, that is And so which NBA, so which N- which NBA Hall of Fame voter wins out? How, who do you believe there's more of?
26:04
I would hope the, I would hope the, uh, the type that's with me on he did, he did enough in the- Yeah... in a short amount of time- I think so, too... that i- i- he did enough, I think, to, to earn his way in there.
26:16
And then you could also say, and also, y- you can't tell me he wasn't gonna put, put together way better years than he did. I, man, he ended up playing in the NBA for a long time. I know.
26:25
I mean, you're talking about four amazing seasons, like you just went through. I just pulled this up. Yeah. So I mean, four amazing seasons, and then it's w- like, what, 11?
26:34
11 of basically mediocre seasons after that, and he still played, uh, you know, at least sparingly in all of those. I, I think he's in. I mean, I think he's...
26:43
I think it's also the, when we think of the era that he played in as well, right?
26:47
Where, where, where it really was the transition of we had the super teams start to form, start to st- uh, start to see more of the three ball coming into play, right?
26:56
And those offenses really kinda stretching the floor more. And you have guys like him and Dwyane Wade, and look, uh, Dwyane Wade, on, on, I mean, he's in for sure.
27:04
Um, but, like, you still had guys like th- like, uh, like those that were guards that were able to score and facilitate and not shoot the three ball that well, and it was kind of the last, the last type of guards in my opinion that we're really gonna see like that, that were gonna be able to play at that high of a level.
27:23
I think he's in. I think he's in. That's my hunch. That's my hunch. That's your sports talk radio Hall of Fame, uh, we just adjudicated, uh, Derrick Rose's Hall of Fame candidacy. That's right.
27:32
In fact, in fact, if he's not, it's kind of an injustice. Yeah, it is. But you feel bad for the guy.
27:35
Well, well, it's, it's one of those, it, it's what, it does become one of those things to me, then, of we're punishing guys for getting, for getting hurt. Yep.
27:42
And I don't, I don't, it's, some of that's fair and some of it's unfair. Yep. Derrick Rose, uh, retiring at the age of 35, having played, what is that? That's, uh, that's almost two decades- Yeah... in the NBA.
27:55
Not quite, but almost two decades. All right. Shot or no shot. As we definitely transition away from sports talk radio, right? [laughs] Absolutely. That's right. That's right.
28:05
This doesn't sound very betting-oriented either. Shot or no shot. Yeah. Do we have a, we don't have a sexy intro for this? No? Okay. No, we don't. No, we don't have that. All right. All right. Um, okay.
28:12
So we're just gonna go over, like, thr- we're gonna go over the 3-0 teams and the 0-3 teams. Yeah. I'm just g- I'm just gonna throw it at you, Gil. Well, this is at least somewhat betting-related. Yeah.
28:19
Do they have a shot or no shot? Yeah. And you can take that however you want. A shot at making the playoffs, going over their win total, a shot at winning the Super Bowl, however you wanna f- frame that.
28:29
So thr- [laughs] It's very open-ended. I- i- right, well, it is. Okay. 'Cause, uh, you know, it, uh- Okay... shot or no shot, what exactly does that mean?
28:34
We'll start with the 0-3 teams since I've got these, uh, queued up here. Bengals, Jaguars, Titans, shot or no shot- Uh... at doing anything this year? B- yeah.
28:44
B- um, you know, when you start 0 and 3, it's very difficult historically to make the playoffs.
28:49
I will give the Bengals a glimmer because Joe Burrow does exist there, but it is only a glimmer at this point, and this from a guy, including yourself, right, both of us have the Bengals- Yeah...
29:01
uh, to win that division. So I'll give the Bengals a shot at a post-season berth. I will give the Jaguars and Titans increasingly lower and lower shot.
29:10
Like, the Jaguars have none, no shot to me, and the Titans have not even, what's less than no shot. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. Bl- absolutely no shot. Yeah. [laughs] Um, Bengals,
29:24
yes, oh, oh, they're still only plus 115 to make the playoffs. Minus 1- Yeah... minus 149 to. Yeah. I'm with you. I think that, that- Still have market respect...
29:31
I think that team got a shot in whatever sense you wanna say. Uh, y- they've got a shot. We just put 'em, we just saw 'em put up the most efficient offensive game so far- Yeah...
29:39
this season, Monday night against the Commanders. I think what you saw at least offensively in that game you've gotta be encouraged by for Cincinnati.
29:46
Uh, the defense, though, is definitely an issue, and I'm, I, I'm with you on Jaguars and Titans.
29:52
I don't think that, I, I, they're- As big, as big a surprise as the 0-3 start is for the Bengals, the Jaguars' futility- Yeah, right...
30:00
even if, even if you were not a Jaguars fan or a backer, the f- the futility of this team and Trevor Lawrence continuing to lose football games is just the, is, is a huge story.
30:11
'Cause again, he's got the huge contract, and for what at this point?
30:15
For the Jaguars Yeah, I, this is, I was gonna say, I, I don't know if I'd be absolutely stunned if by the end of the season the Jaguars don't have a worse record than the Tennessee Titans.
30:24
I, I, I think the, I think we might see that team completely come undone this year. These are the three teams vying for last winless. That's right. Next. All right, flip it over to 3-0 teams.
30:34
We've got five candidates here. Vikings, Steelers, Bills, Seahawks, Chiefs. If you're watching at home, sorry I screwed up the graphic. Shot or no shot for the 3-0s? Shot or no shot for the 3-0s.
30:45
Again, Vikings, Steelers- Yeah... Bills, Seahawks, Chiefs. Uh, well, they've all got a shot. Yes. If you just, you know- Yeah, but what, what's a shot?... use it loosely. Shot at, uh, winning a Super Bowl?
30:55
But- Who's got a, who's got a Super Bowl shot? I mean, if I'm ranking them, you know I have the Steelers last in terms of where they'll end up here, but 3-0 is 3-0.
31:01
You bank the wins, so you have a, a far better shot than you would've, uh, me talking about them three weeks ago, that's for sure. A little egg on my face, uh, in the early going here.
31:12
Um, but yeah, they all have absolutely a shot. I think Minnesota, w- was it Minnesota? I think Seattle is the most e- All right, I'm gonna go Buffalo, Kansas City.
31:19
We can kind of put them- Buffalo, Kansas City, put them on the side... in a different category, right? Even, yeah, absolutely. So Seattle, Minnesota, Pittsburgh.
31:25
Minnesota the most impressive of those three, Seattle the most shaky of the 3-0s. 'Cause again, they, they, you know, they could easily have a worse record than that.
31:36
Um, even this last win against the Dolphins was kind of like, really? Couldn't put this team away. Uh, so I worry about Seattle a little bit, and I'm, uh, one who has coach of the year tickets.
31:45
Um, even Pittsburgh's 3-0 with that defense is still more solid than Seattle's at this point, but they all have a shot, to use your loose term- Yeah... to make the postseason.
31:54
The, um, I believe in the Seahawks more than the Steelers, but- I do, too, but I'm just saying the first three games, not so much.
32:01
The, the, i- the, it's, it's one of those interesting comparisons, I think, because you have the, I, I think overall higher ceiling for Seattle, but there's inconsistency questions, there's offensive line questions that I think are major, right?
32:14
Pittsburgh's just kind of Pittsburgh, right? We know exactly what they are. M- It's a great defense.
32:18
Can the offense do, be good enough to My whole thing on Seattle all off season, I said this at least five times, was Mike McDonald's defense, they will warm to it as the season goes on.
32:27
I think they've warmed to it quicker- Yeah... than I would even imagine. Completely agree. Yeah. Completely agree on the defensive side of the ball.
32:32
And you've got the Seahawks minus 150 right now to make the playoffs, Steelers minus 160. This actually keeps getting bet all week.
32:39
I think there was a lot of us that woke up [laughs] Monday morning, including myself, I was like, "The Steelers only minus 125 to make the playoffs, being a 3-0 team?" You know what I mean?
32:48
Like, obviously we've seen them disrespected in the betting market, 'cause we've been a part of it. Yeah. But man, that was a l- that was a short number for a 3-0 team.
32:56
Uh, again, banking wins does not mean that you're awesome- Right... necessarily. Yeah, yeah.
33:00
And they're, and they're all, like with, if their offense continued to be completely sort of this moribund offense, you wouldn't be surprised in the least bit. I wouldn't be surprised if it got worse. Yeah.
33:09
Um, they, Vikings minus 180 to make the playoffs, they're- All right. Was that-... they are the highest... was that shot or no shot? Was that That's shot or no shot. Brought to you by, insert sponsor here. Alcoa.
33:21
Uh, yeah, we're spitballing that one. Eh. What are we gonna do? Is that different? That's different from our, from our Friday staple, which is are we sure? Yeah. I like are we sure better. Eh. Eh. W- w- well.
33:31
This was just a one-off. Okay, it's okay. The 3-0 and the 1-0 I, I'm just saying, just a talking number what we talk off air, on air. [laughs] People should know how we sort of bandy these things about.
33:39
All right, we'll come back. Uh, I have added World Series match-ups. That is next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
Once again, a special numbers game investigation reveals that the N- NHL season begins October 4th. We're, it's almost here now. What's that? Boop, boop, boop, boop, boop. What's that? That's, uh, eight days.
34:06
Dir- director Reggie was, uh, doing one of the pre-season games last night. Was he? I was like, "What? Pre-season starts?" [laughs] Felika was betting on a pre-season hockey game. NHL season almost here.
34:15
We got the VSiN NHL betting guide. It's out now. Adam Burke doing big things on this. Strategies for betting the NHL, including previews of all 32 teams, Stanley Cup odds and predictions, and of course, best bets.
34:26
Start your VSiN Pro subscription today for as little as 9.99 to reserve your copy of the guide, plus get instant access to our daily best bets, top-rated betting systems, 24/7 video access, and exclusive betting splits to show you where the money and bets are moving for every game.
34:38
Don't miss our must-have NHL betting guide, packed with key insights and data for both avid hockey bettors and those new to the sport. Sign up for just 9.99 for your first month at vsin.com/subscribe.
34:48
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Why do I spell the VSiN but not the subscribe, then, when I do the spelling part at the end? [laughs] Just waste- Yeah, yeah, yeah... t- people's time and spell subscribe?
35:00
[laughs] I guess, yeah. Uh, we get tweets @beatingthebook, always appreciate the feedback. Uh, best listeners to the game.
35:05
Sam Ginsburg from Pittsburgh, PA said, "You guys missed a great opportunity with a shot or no shot segment. Kelly's first question should have been shot or no shot Rose to make the NBA Hall of Fame."
35:16
We are complete idiots, Sam. G- great note, Sam. We are. Send it to my boss. Yep. Sam- Great note... Sam, thanks for producing the show. [laughs] Uh, Steve the Proxy. Oh, we love Steve.
35:24
"For years I thought it was just God that hated the Mets. Turns out Rob Manfraud hates the Mets, too. If only there was a living, breathing commissioner."
35:32
Uh, that's, uh, Tony Kornheiser's line about Commissioner Rob Manfred and other commissioners. But yes, that is absolutely true, Steve. Uh, Trip Tepper. It's about Derrick Rose.
35:40
It's funny, w- we didn't think Derrick Rose was a big deal, but people are, are chiming in. Uh, Trip Tepper says no on Derrick Rose Hall of Fame. "You can tell the history of the NBA," he says, "without mentioning Rose.
35:50
His MVP award was during peak LeBron and should be in LeBron's trophy case. It's on par with that nonsense MVP they gave Karl Malone in the '96, '97 season."
36:00
Okay, so but isn't the p- the pushback there is that someone else won an MVP during the era of LeBron James. Yeah.
36:07
Like, if we think LeBron is that good, he was that good that year to win an MVP award over LeBron James Or is Tripp saying they can give LeBron the MVP every year though- Well, so-...
36:17
at that time, and they were just giving him a... You know, don't, don't get upset. Wow, you got very angry there. Oh, my God. [laughs] Maybe Tripp is saying they just gave him a sort of a charity MVP.
36:26
I don't think it was that, no. Yeah. I think, I think that was a earned MVP award, he was that good. Cheap Prop Bets says the other thing.
36:32
He says, "Rose will make the Hall of Fame because everyone makes the Hall of Fame in the NBA." [laughs] "Easiest Hall of Fame to make out of the major US sports." Uh- That's very true.
36:40
That wa- this was really only the, the only reason I didn't want to, I didn't want you to bring it up immediately without me looking into it, because every one of these Hall of Fames is different from that standpoint.
36:49
Yeah. 'Cause he, he is right. Th- this is the easiest one to get into. Well, that's how I brought it up, just to fluster you. Uh, Brosek1870 says, "MLB absolutely wants a Monday win and in scenario.
37:01
That's why they started the one-game wild card to start. As much as they say they don't, it puts the spotlight on the MLB and they must want it."
37:08
Brosek, I think you're giving Rob Manfred and the commissioner's office way too much credit. But I think in, on the- Hmm. Yeah... on the, on the one hand, it, you're certainly right that it's awesome.
37:18
I can't wait for that.
37:20
Like, I can't wait for Monday to sit there all day and watch the Braves play the Mets in a double header, but I don't think they would have wanted this scenario in the least bit, for all the travel reasons we talked about, all the pitching calculus now that the Br- that the Braves have to make.
37:34
The Braves playing five in three days, the Mets potentially with that back and forth travel, also the Braves potentially with that back and forth travel into a wild card game one. Yeah, not, not ideal.
37:45
Um, so, uh, this one also I wanna read. This is from Larry Fresh. Uh, Larry Fresh tweeting in. Let me, uh, get that. He says, uh, "Tu español fue excelente." I think "fue" means was. Yeah.
37:58
So I think he's actually knocking me. Tu E- he says, "Tu español fue excelente. Gil, great job teaching. You ever want a job teaching Spanish, let me know, I can hook you up." No, your Spanish was excellent.
38:08
I can hook you up. What's that? Your Spanish was excellent. Oh, was. I thought he meant it like in it's no longer excellent. Hmm. Oh, no, you're right. Was meaning last time. Yeah, at the, at the beginning of the show.
38:16
Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah, okay. I got you. I got your back, buddy. Okay. Thank you, buddy. Um, okay.
38:20
This is, so I have, at, along the lines of what we were talking about in the first segment, which is like, okay, you can jump in and bet the Tigers plus 450 last week, last week, second to last week of the Major League Baseball season, and now they're minus 2,000.
38:33
Like, you can make those kinds of bets in baseball. I think it's just awesome. Uh, in the same vein, sports books offer World Series exactas, and for my liking, more specifically, World Series match-ups.
38:46
Now, the only book in town, Kelly, that has offered the match-up specifically is BetMGM. So shout out to BetMGM for this. They have it up every day, every possible combo you can think of.
38:57
And somewhat famously on this show, a couple months ago, not a couple months, maybe about one and one and a half months, I'd have to check the exact date, I bet the Diamondbacks to face the Royals in the World Series at 400 to 1.
39:08
That's why I'm super incentivized for both those teams to get into the playoff tournament. I have started to add others, and I kind of, to be honest with you, I wanna have as many of these- I like it... as possible.
39:19
I like it. Because again, this is not something you have to wait forever to cash, much like with the Tigers to get in the playoffs, literally 10 days, right? This is not even.
39:29
You don't even have to wait till the World S- for the World Series to get played out. So this will be in your account if you win, um, sometime in this month of October coming up.
39:38
Um, I added the Diamondbacks to take on the Guardians at 66 to 1, and then what I consider the most chalky of the bunch, I added Guardians versus Phillies at 16 to 1.
39:50
I think I'm going to add at least one, if not two more before this postseason begins next week. But good on BetMGM for throwing these up.
39:59
Now, the reason that I am such an advocate of this stuff is, especially this year in baseball, where, and I always joke, I'm like, "Watch, the Yankees will play the Dodgers and all this will be moot," but if there was every year, there were every year where it is complete free-for-all, it is this year in Major League Baseball.
40:15
The format to begin with makes it a free-for-all. Best of three followed by best of five, uh, until you get to the championship series, which are best of sevens.
40:23
So Billy Beane, who famously said about all of his analytics in Oakland, "My shiz doesn't work in the postseason," what he's referring to is... He didn't exactly say that.
40:33
[laughs] What he's, what he's- It'd be awesome if he did, though [laughs] What, what he's referring to is, is that the, he can, he can properly plan for 162 games.
40:43
His analytics, his sabermetrics, and that approach is going to manifest over time. Yeah. But in any small sample size, just anything could happen. Just throw it up in the air.
40:54
And so because of that, it, your, it's kind of your obligation to take shots at this kind of thing.
41:01
You may lose them all, but at 400 to 1 and 66 to 1, uh, you know, obviously I had one exception in there, which is just barely value, which is the Guardians-Phillies, 'cause I did wanna have sort of a safety net.
41:14
But I think having, uh, you know, liberally taking shots at this, and by the way, again, not an exacta, just a match-up in the World Series. I think you owe it to yourself to have a bunch of these.
41:25
Yeah, I'm looking at the... Yeah, we bring this up with draft kings all the time.
41:28
I don't, I don't get when they, I feel like they post this market sometimes, and other times they just have the straight forecast, but they also, or, but they also have the, the AL and NL exactas up too, so it's, that's kinda cool.
41:39
So I gue- I guess you could look- Oh, for the championship series? Yeah, for the championship series. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you. Okay.
41:43
Um, the, uh, but you know, if you do just look, like I'm looking right now, like Diamondbacks, Mets, Braves, 'cause nobody's in yet, right, from those three. So it's, I mean, you're looking at the exactas.
41:55
The, those teams start at 50 to 1. Well- You know what I mean?
41:59
That's, it- Well, the Tigers, these past two weeks, 'cause again, they were on the outside looking in, and now they're on the inside looking out, the, you could get, you, you still get these World Series match-ups involving a team like the Tigers at these massive numbers.
42:11
What a great bet- Same thing... to have going in the month of October- Yeah...
42:15
while we're watching football It, it's such a, um, it's a fun bet and it's a, I would say again, in a free-for-all where there is no Goliath in baseball. E- every team has its flaws. You owe it to yourself to have these.
42:30
Yeah, so I'm looking at, like, same thing, right? That is, uh, Dodgers to beat Tigers is 50 to 1. Yeah. Like, [laughs] that's where it starts. Well, that, that's an- That is the shortest one... and that's an exacta.
42:38
That's an exacta. Right. That is an exact, but that is the shortest of where that starts. Yeah.
42:41
See, I, I, the reason I hate the exactas too, is I don't wanna go that far and then lose it on a who beats who kind of thing. Right, and figure out how you're hedging- You know?... and everything.
42:48
Yeah, all that good stuff. Um, before we, uh, get to crack, any Presidents Cup thoughts? Yeah, I do. Sir? Um, I do have a, a bet today, and then a couple bets for the actual event.
43:00
Um, I did, I, I laid the points, laid three in the hook, uh, wi- with, uh, with, uh, Team USA, Gil. So I know where- Are you into this? You gonna be watching this? I'll be watching it.
43:08
I mean, this is not a heavily bet event for me. I mean, you, you always have to question.
43:13
You have guys like Adam Scott who were just playing last week in Europe, who's been playing a bu- fair amount through, through the fall and through the end of the PGA Tour season.
43:21
Then when we got some of these guys, okay, you think about Scheffler and Schauffele, Morikawa, and some of the top names on the USA side. Yeah, we saw them in the Tour Championship. We haven't seen them since.
43:29
There's some of these guys that we haven't even seen since before then, and we now have this kind of clearer off-season in golf.
43:37
And I just, there's more motivation questions than ever of where these guys' heads are at, where their games are at. Um, you know, Patrick Cantlay is playing in this. He likes to get paid for things.
43:47
Nobody's getting paid for this either. [laughs] Right, right. So I, like, I don't- there is, I think there are motivation questions, so I have a few bets. Nothing, nothing crazy big.
43:54
I would recommend, uh, taking this a little lighter, uh, than you would a normal golf tournament.
43:59
And much like Sia said yesterday, me, I think me and him are a, a little bit different from a lot, a lot of golf bettors, where I like betting stroke play eve- events. I like the, a regular PGA Tour event.
44:09
So I laid the three and a half points with USA. I did bet Xander Schauffele top overall point scorer.
44:14
Think he's gonna see a lot of action for the US, and then one matchup for today in four ball matchup, uh, bet Morikawa and Thiga over Adam Scott, uh, and Lee. Tennis is similar this time of year.
44:26
It's, it's sort of like, why are we playing these, these, these events? It's very odd. Yeah. Uh, Bill Krackenberg, Unscripted with the Crack- Backer... on the Numbers Game and VSiN, the sports betting network
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