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Sep 2, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 2, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | September 2, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:25
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:12
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, where sports betting lives. Live from Circa, we have walls. A Numbers Game 3.0, or at least. We're back in the studio, baby. Let's go, Gil. I'm excited to be here.
0:25
How you doing, man? You good? Great. Was up at 3:30 this morning, ready to go with our new, uh, new digs here, getting, making sure the whole crew's ready. Did you bring an apple for the first day of school?
0:34
No, I did not. Why did you check your stuff? I knew I forgot something. All right. Miles brought donuts, though. Oh, good. I, I- That's the same thing, right? I cannot partake... apples, donuts. I cannot partake.
0:42
Um, congratulations to, uh, Morning Line for their first show this morning. Yes. Uh, well done. We will, uh, talk college football this morning. We will talk, uh, obviously baseball with Mark Borcherd.
0:54
Mike Somich will, uh, join us to give us all his picks. Futac on the first weekend of college football. Kelly and I will, uh, review some of our NFL team futures.
1:04
I wanna get in first segment, though, with, uh, obviously the, uh, te- w- obviously the US Open and some never too early Heisman talk. Hmm. Yes. Never too early Heisman talk.
1:15
Um, first, let's talk tennis, 'cause it is as, as we tennis hardos like to say, it is the business end of the United States Open. Uh, second half of the round of 16 begins today.
1:27
Uh, we finally had a losing day yesterday, the dreaded O and one, where, uh- Oh, no... where Alexei Popyrin- What, what were you, five and O three days ago? Uh. Uh, yeah, that was a monster day.
1:37
[laughs] It was a rather large day. Um, followed up with a nice plus 199 dog on, uh, Friday. S- split washed on Saturday, and we went O and one yesterday.
1:46
A- Alexei Popyrin had three, count 'em, three set points in the second set on his racket. He gak'd it, and we knew the, the match was kind of over at that point. Tiafoe beats him.
1:55
Uh, today there are two plays in tennis, one of which is completely out of whack and unplayable. The other one is playable. Uh, Karolina Muchova, who is one of our two, uh, Q2 futures plays at 10 to one pre-flop.
2:10
She is now the favorite to win quarter number two. I put this at, I put this in at vsin.com/picks. Every host, every guest, every sport, uh, logs in their plays at vsin.com/picks. That is for survive.
2:24
That is for, uh, survivors. [laughs] That is for subscribers, and survivors too, by the way.
2:29
Um, it was minus 128 when I put it in on Saturday over Jasmine Paolini, who's trying to get to her third consecutive Grand Slam final. It is now minus 175. Whoa. So that's, you know, what is that, 40 ce- Significant.
2:43
[laughs] Yeah, 47 cents of CLV. I have to tell you this, though. When we get this kind of CLV, it hasn't really worked out that well, so hopefully this is the exception. Okay, that feels like a lot- Yeah...
2:52
compared to what we normally talk about- Well, we had one with-... when you say it. Is there a reason? We had one with Badosa a few, a couple weeks ago that was 52 cents. We had one with, uh, with, uh, Volynets- Okay...
3:01
which was 47 cents. They both lost, by the way. So, so not, uh, not Paolini injury related or anything like that? Um, no. Okay.
3:11
This is just the fact that I think besides, besides Aryna Sabalenka pulverizing the tennis ball, no one's playing better than Karolina Muchova. I, I mean, you've bet her, what, two or three times now at least?
3:20
I had her at Wimbledon to win her quarter. That didn't work out, but l- uh, she's got two more matches to get to the prize here for Q2. Um, so Muchova is unplayable, but Caroline Wozniacki is playable today.
3:32
Uh, I got her minus 113. That's at vsin.com/picks. This I put in yesterday over Beatriz Haddad Maia. That's at about, what is it we're looking at, minus 123 right now. Don't let it get out of the minus 120s.
3:45
Don't let it get higher than that if it happens to continue in that direction.
3:47
So, uh, Muchova no longer playable to the, against Paolini, which is a match that starts in about, well, 55 minutes, and then Wozniacki a little later today. That is a playable play against Beatriz Haddad Maia.
3:58
To, uh, sort of update the, uh, the futures that we have- Yeah... Muchova, 10 to one to win Q2, two matches away there. Paula Badosa, plus 550, one match away from winning her quarter, Q3.
4:11
She's gotta take down Emma Navarro. That's tomorrow. Uh, and then Iga Swiatek, four matches away, if you will, from winning the whole thing. So she's got a match today.
4:20
She's gotta advance to the, uh, quarterfinals as well. So second half of the round of 16 at the US Open today. The greatest show in sports, the greatest show in tennis for sure. I love it.
4:30
I li- we, we talk about it every time seemingly, but man, I wish we had just more U- US Korean Slams where you could actually watch this stuff, uh, later into the night and night.
4:38
Great weekend of sports with that combined with college football and everything like that. Football's back. Love it. Great tennis, great golf. Good weekend. Great golf. Should we have the golf discussion now or later?
4:47
Let's have it later. Yeah, yeah. Uh, let's talk about golf next segment, 'cause I have a big question for you. Okay. And the question basically is, let me tease the question. You ready for this?
4:54
"Did anybody know it was happening?" is the question. That'll be the- [laughs] We'll get Kelly's answer. NBC, thank the bettors out there, that's for sure. I just, I- Thank the bettors...
5:04
I just think it was one of these, uh, we'll get into it, but it's like, there's college football starting, right? A US Open for tennis hardos, but essentially you have this, well, I'll say it again.
5:13
Well, I don't wanna get into it. I wanna talk about the Heisman, the never too early discussion on the Heisman first. Yeah.
5:17
Uh, so you have great college football, and we'll, we'll talk about some of the games that went on, obviously. We'll, we'll give our thoughts on those.
5:23
But, um, Heis- the Heisman Trophy, since the year 2000, since the year 2000, you have had really only a handful, not even a handful, you've had four non-quarterbacks win the Heisman Trophy.
5:36
Four non-quarterbacks, uh, the most recent of which was Devonta Smith for Alabama in the pandemic year of 2020. So it's not something that occurs in the modern age of college football that frequently.
5:50
Once every five years if you're to take the sample size from the beginning of this century. And if you look at the Heisman odds board, you know, again, scattered
5:58
You know, sort of in there with nothing but quarterbacks, you will find, you know, the Travis Hunters of the world, right, at 25 to one. Travis Hunter from Colorado.
6:07
We spoke about Travis Hunter last week with Falica, which is to say that here's a guy who plays both sides of the football, which he did last year as well.
6:13
We had this discussion last year about Travis Hunter where it's like nobody's more dynamic in college football. Then he got hurt. Colorado wasn't any good.
6:20
And we sort of decided, you know, the quest- the question I asked Falica was, "Okay, what does Colorado have to be?" Right, yeah. Record-wise for Hunter?
6:27
Let's say, Hunter's not gonna play as many snaps as he did this past week against North Dakota State every week. Just all but two. What's that? Have played, played all but two. All but two. Yeah.
6:34
That's not gonna happen every week.
6:35
But even if he played a tremendous amount of stats and he was phenomenal, the conclusion was, and I sort of led the que- led the answer, which is Colorado has to get to a bowl, right, minimum, for that to even be a consideration.
6:45
Travis Hunter's not winning the Heisman if Colorado wins four games again.
6:49
So this weekend, just to throw it out there, if a non-quarterback could, could earn your bet here, and there was a few performances by non-quarterbacks that were great. Jeremiah Smith from Ohio State.
7:02
Do you have a Jeremiah Smith ticket or just Falica? Just Falica [laughs]. Okay. Six catches- But, but he's part of the all backup Ohio State backup, so [laughs] Yes, that's why I asked... tickets that we have, yeah.
7:12
Uh, six catches, 92 yards, two touchdowns. He was great, uh, Jeremiah Smith of, of Ohio State. Uh, Ashton Jeanty from Boise State, I'm not sure if everybody caught this. Monster, yep.
7:22
Six touchdowns, uh, 20 carries for 267 yards. I'll do the math for you, that's 13.35 yards a carry. Yeah, that's not bad. I, I, I- Six touchdowns...
7:30
I'm glad you said did you catch that, 'cause I missed that one completely. Yeah. The one we're getting to, though, no. Well, this is... So this is why I bring it up. So, um, Tedarrell McMillan.
7:42
Tedarrell McMillan from Arizona, uh, he ended last year... By the way, Arizona had one of these interesting years last year where they were never, you know, they were never involved in any national title hunt, of course.
7:54
Mm. But I say that sort of, like, casually, because if you look back at their, at their actual record, the losses were so narrow, right? They lost to w- uh, they lost to, at Mississippi State by a touchdown.
8:09
They lost to UW. Of course, UW ended up playing in the national championship game.
8:12
They lost to them by a touchdown, and they lost at, at USC in what, you know, third overtime, college football, quote, unquote, third overtime, right?
8:20
So those were their only three losses, and McMillan el- ended the year last year with just a, a flourish of stats.
8:28
Um, and he, it was one of these things that sort of went under the radar nationally, and I'll raise my hand. You know, I was part of that, where he ended the season, uh, at Colorado, nine catches for 107 and a touch.
8:39
Uh, Utah, home game, eight catches for 116 and a touchdown. At Arizona State, this was the big game, 11 for 266 and a touchdown, and then, uh, in the bowl game against Oklahoma, 10 for 160.
8:51
So he ends the season, and again, Arizona kind of not on the national scene, and then he shows up here, um, for game number one to, against New Mexico, mind you.
9:01
I get it, and we'll have a couple weeks here early where Arizona's gonna roll their opponent and the stats are gonna be, you know, cartoon-like. But he ends up with 10 catches for 304 yards and four touchdowns.
9:14
In the first half alone, he had seven for 248 and four touchdowns. That, of course, with two [laughs] with two quarters to go.
9:21
So the question becomes, right off the bat here after one week of college football, all right, does Tedarrell McMillan deserve a, a, you know, is, it, would you consider a bet on him at 65 to one to win the Heisman?
9:35
And then the same question applies to him as it did to Travis Hunter. Travis Hunter and Colorado was- Right... Colorado must get to a bowl game.
9:42
Arizona has to make the playoff for him to get considered, because all this is very subjective, right? Yeah. Why should Colorado only have to get to a bowl, but Arizona have to get to the playoff?
9:52
But I actually think that's it. Yeah. Well, I mean, I think it's, it's, it's exceeding on where you finished last year, right?
9:58
So it is, like, we talk about that often with the NFL awards and coach of the year, how much do you need to exceed what you did the s- the season before?
10:05
So it would be a massive leap for Colorado [laughs] just, just to get into a, into the playoff, right? But then you're talking about Arizona possibly winning that conference. I don't know, man.
10:16
I, I feel like all of these, all of these guys, whether we wanna talk, uh, Sanders, Hunter, uh, or the kid from, McMillan from the, uh, from Arizona, they all feel like long shots still. Like, I think they're fun.
10:26
I think they're fun early season hype- But, but at 65 to one, he, but he, I know- He was awesome. He was awesome... again, the competition is what it is, New Mexico, and it's only gonna step up in the Big 12.
10:35
Arizona a Big 12 team. This just in. Um, and you look at their schedule and you think, "Okay, what, can they actually have a record that would get them to a 12-team college football playoff?"
10:45
Uh, the, the potential hurdles at Kansas State in a couple weeks after they play Northern Arizona, at Utah couple weeks after that after a bye, uh, let's pencil in an L there.
10:57
Later they're at UCF, and later they're, I guess later they're last, second to last game of the year, they're at TCU. All of those are hurdles.
11:04
So it's gonna be very difficult for the Arizona Wildcats to get there, obviously, but dude, he looks like a man amongst boys.
11:13
So this was one of those games I had on TV, on second TV on mute, and I felt like every time I looked over there, he was making a catch. And like by, at halftime I was like, "I gotta pull up the box score."
11:23
And it was, yeah, wow, these are major numbers. And of course, it should be noted, he also has to beat out his quarterback to feed, to, to actually win this as well. [laughs] 65 to one?
11:32
I'm thinking about it, let's put it that way. Uh, a little more college football and Kelly's thoughts on the Tour Championship in golf next. Numbers Game, Visa, the sports betting network.
11:47
A Numbers Game on Visa, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circa. Circa, Kelly. Look at this place.
11:56
Look, we got the background now, like the Looks great The guys did all these years Where is everybody? They didn't come out here to see us? [laughs] I was a- Come on...
12:04
I was able to place a bet, uh, prior to 7:00 AM, which we couldn't do at the D- That's nice... which is nice That's nice, yeah 24 hours here at Circa. Uh, I will miss the D. Let me just shout out the folks at the D.
12:14
Oh, absolutely Uh, and specifically, this won't mean anything to anybody but me and Kelly, but Randy Rodriguez, uh- Randy and Marlon, thank you. [laughs] Randy and Marlon.
12:22
Marlon, who taught us, uh, who's from Hawaii, you don't, you don't say someone's from Hawaii as a Hawaiian. He, he was very sensitive to that. He says, "If you're from Nebraska, are you Nebraskan?"
12:31
So we're like, "All right, cool." That's why we had those conversations. And Randy Rodriguez, who's the greatest human on earth. Uh, Derek Stevens and Mike Palm should know that.
12:38
Wait, so someone from Nebraska is not a Nebraskan? No, they are, but like when you, when someone, like for instance, let's talk about Ted Aroa and McMillan. Ooh, good segue.
12:45
People will say, people will be like, "Hey, he's Hawaiian."
12:48
And Marlon, who is from Hawaii, would say, "Yeah, but you don't say when someone's from like Nebraska, you, you know, the first thing out of your mouth isn't, 'Oh, he's Nebraskan.'" He is- Ah...
12:56
but that's not the first thing out of your mouth. That's right. Fre- I, I mean, with Marlon, it's overall great guy, followed by anything else. [laughs] That's right. Um, we get tweets.
13:07
First, we get tweets at, uh, Circa. Let me see if I can, uh, figure out how to do this and then, does it work the same way in this studio? I think it does. Uh- By, by you reading them? Yes.
13:15
Yeah 'Cause Kelly's still figuring out graphics. Okay. Uh, this is- Baby steps here... this is from, I'm, I'm totally not Ron Burgundy-ing these, by the way, let me just point that out. Mm-hmm.
13:23
Uh, this is from the numbers guys. Oh, gr- this is a great question, and maybe I should have, uh, been smart enough to, to say this. Uh, he says, "At some point, could this pla- could this be a play on Jasmine Paolini?
13:35
Um, because the line has moved so very much, uh, against her." Oh, great question. It's a, it's a great question. And yes, the answer to your question is mechanically, technically, yes.
13:43
There's obviously a point where the value then shifts to Jasmine Paolini. Obviously, uh, in the case of those of us who got Mako- Muhova at the better number, uh, it doesn't apply to us.
13:53
Unless you wanted to do, you know, unless you, unless all of a sudden something changed and you thought something, uh, intrinsic in the match changed. But, um, I don't.
14:01
But yes, for those who have not gotten involved, um, there is a point. I just would not get in front of the Muhova train at this point.
14:08
Um, ScottyB726, "Biggest, uh, lineup improvement, Gil doesn't have to fling the cord off his left shoulder." Yes. [laughs] Thank you. Very right. And he was practicing for a, a shampoo commercial for a year, okay?
14:20
[laughs] Uh, that's right. And this is from, let's see, uh, oh. Brother Aaron. Za- Xavier82, "You boys look snazzy in that sexy studio of yours. Congratulations." It is a sexy studio.
14:31
Uh, and then this segues right into the golf thing. Jeff G points out, at Give Me The Hook, he said, "Tour championship date for 2025 is a week earlier next year, August 21st to 24th.
14:41
Remember it was pushed back a week this year due to the Olympics." You are correct, Jeff. Mm-hmm.
14:46
Um, but I still wanna, this, the point kind of still remains, Kelly, which is the tennis, I'll use my world, the tennis equivalent to this is the slams are played, and by the way, no sport is as, is as polite as tennis, where they wait for the NFL playoffs to, to happen, and then they have their first slam, and then the US Open Men's Final is the first Sunday of the NFL, and tennis just gets out of the way for football.
15:08
It's just coincidental. They didn't do it on purpose. But it's just perfect in terms of our betting calendar.
15:12
There is something later in the tennis calendar called the ATP and the WTA finals, which is for the men's tour and the women's tour. They take the eight biggest point winners and they have this great tournament.
15:23
And for the tennis hardos it's something, but it just doesn't capture- I was gonna say, why is that not a bigger thing? It, it doesn't capture the imagination of the casual. Okay. And so golf- Yeah...
15:31
and I just wanna ask you this, 'cause no one loves golf more than you. Mm-hmm. By the way, Kelly hosts a little podcast by the name of, uh, it's called Long Shots.
15:38
Right, and, and shout out to Jeff G for having me on his podcast last week as well. Oh, there you go. So, yeah.
15:43
So the Tour Championship, the FedEx Cup, uh, f- Scotty Scheffler won $25 million this weekend, and I don't get the impression,
15:53
I'll use my buddy Tommy in DC as like the representative of casual sports fan America, I don't believe he even knew it was happening. Uh, yeah. What can they do about this? I, this was a, a, you know, thing.
16:04
Good job, Scotty Scheffler. Uh, do, A, one, do I get to count it as an outright hit? I don't know that it does when you bet him at plus 135 with the [laughs] starting strokes to Scotty Scheffler. No.
16:14
So yeah, hey- Yeah... we end the season with a win, though. We made some money, not $25 million worth.
16:20
Um, but I, I look, and this has been a long, uh, i- long discussed topic since they, since they instituted this, uh, about five years ago. I, I don't have the perfect answer.
16:31
I think there's a lot of people out there that no matter what sport we talk about, playoffs and, and changes with, a lot of people like to complain without actually having a better solution in mind. Yeah.
16:40
And I think that's part of the problem right now with golf. There is no better solution, is there?
16:44
There, there is, there really isn't unless you want to, unless you wanna go along the lines of the argument of okay, you have a qualifying process for the playoffs. Pretty much every sport does. No.
16:54
If you're good enough to make the playoffs, then you've made the playoffs, and from there on, nobody else gets a leg up besides when we talk about like NFL, you get a bye, right?
17:04
These te- these sports where you get a bye. Other than that, everybody's on a level playing field, and it's whoever wins out from there on wins, wins the whole dang thing, right?
17:12
So it is a little weird to play two events, and then you get to the last one and Scotty Scheffler, the best golfer in the world, is getting a two-shot lead. Now, this year was also especially odd.
17:23
Remember we talked about before the first playoff event, uh, before the FedEx St. Jude, I'd me- I made a bet on Morikawa to win the whole dang thing, and it was a bad bet even though he did get kind of close yesterday.
17:34
He did flirt, he flirted. He was second. Um- He won with 72 holes, right? Didn't he? He w- uh, beli- no, I believe Scheffler still did. I gotta check that 'cause I, I knew I lost on b- all those.
17:44
Um, so the, the problem is, is that you get these guys coming in with the huge lead, and when I made that bet on Morikawa, I didn't take the time to fully add up what the, what the prize money was gonna be or prize points were gonna be for the first two events.
17:58
Yeah. Because even if you had won both of those, you were still gonna be behind most likely Scheffler and Schauffele going into the Tour Champion- Hmm... Championship.
18:07
So I think this year was just a, I mean- It was a great example of how awesome and amazing Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele were all season long to be able to put themselves in that one-two spot going into the Tour Championship I, I just think it's a question worth bringing up 'cause I l- I love golf, I know you love golf, and so they gotta do something about this to sort of raise the in...
18:27
Did you have any bets that, that won in this? Uh, I had Scheffler. I had Scheffler. Just Scheffler. Yeah, I had Scheffler. Okay. Um, Hideki n- uh, not getting a top five finish was big too.
18:35
That was one of the ones I was big on. E- everything else was a loss, but at least, at least, uh, at least a good winner to end the season. There you go. That's for sure.
18:41
There is, there is more golf and tennis after the Slams, it's just not the crux. Yeah, we'll get into the fall schedule. Yeah.
18:46
We'll be, we'll be do- long shots will be covered, all that stuff, but it's, it's kinda like soccer. We joke about ball cards. Yeah.
18:51
Like two weeks and then I think we got the Fort- the, the Fortnet or whatever back in Napa. So yeah. Um- It turns around quick...
18:58
still learning what to do with my arms here at this, uh, at this, uh, studio, but I'm super comfortable. Yeah, we got a lot to learn. I like it. Yeah, we got new earpieces in. Yeah, I dig it. Lights.
19:05
No, no more hair dent. It's awesome. Yeah, there's no music or slot machines. I don't know if I need to like watch out for anybody coming in the studio or not. College footb- oh, there, that's always a thing.
19:13
[laughs] College football week one is not done, by the way. I wanna get your thoughts on your alma mater, uh, alma mater FSU here momentarily. But, um, you know, what's, what are the big takeaways?
19:21
We'll get Futac in here later for the big takeaways, uh, so far in college football.
19:24
But of the marquee match-ups, Georgia, Clemson, um, Georgia is exactly who we thought they were, at least we can say that after the game, maybe not at halftime, but certainly, uh, Georgia is the behemoth that we thought them to be.
19:36
Clemson, by the way, um, no one should be surprised at this point.
19:39
Ever since Trevor Lawrence and, and those championship or those championship caliber teams, um, you know, graduated and got drafted, this has been going on for three years at Clemson, right?
19:49
So this is, this shouldn't be any surprise, and Dabo is obviously, uh, behind the times refusing the transfer portal. Did- So that, that game... I'm sorry, go ahead. Did you make any bets on that game? Like I know- No...
19:59
Felika had m- like, he was all over it with the unders and team total under on, on Clemson. I did not.
20:05
The, the biggest sort of laugh we got this weekend is that, uh, we were in-gaming, we're in-gaming bets all weekend, and To- Todd at one point had Ole Miss, um, I wanna say, I ca- something like minus 70- [laughs]...
20:16
minus 70 something- That's awesome... or something like that. And then Lane Kiffin is just ridiculous how he just- Yeah... "I'll show you Ferman." [laughs] Um, so that was, that was just kind of amusing.
20:25
He's always got a chip on his shoulder. Um, so I think that game is, you know, nothing really big.
20:29
The, the Notre Dame, Texas A&M outcome is probably, in terms of just like significance for a college football playoff, we all knew going into the season that if Notre Dame won this game, they're in coast mode. Yeah.
20:40
They're gonna be favored in every other... By the way, I don't know how good Notre Dame is. Yeah, me either. I, I don't know after that. Um- I, I wasn't very impressed with either side in that game, to be honest...
20:47
Notre Dame gets it done. They'll be favored in every game, and it's one of these, remember now with the 12 team playoff, Notre Dame can lose a game, maybe even two- Mm-hmm. Yeah...
20:57
and they're still in, and then they might get clocked, but that's, that's that.
21:00
And then USC, LSU, which I know our buddy Matt Brown was probably upset with the, uh, fi- LSU just, and Brian Kelly lost his mind- Yeah, a couple years ago...
21:07
after the game yesterday, but because they had it on their racket late and they just could not get it done, and they left the door open, and US- USC not only, uh, with the game-winning field goal, but they get the game-winning touchdown at the end to, uh, seal it and win outright against, uh, against LSU.
21:23
Um- If I've said anything on this show for years, Gil- Yeah... it is you cannot leave Miller Boss that much time left on the clock. I believe you've said that many times. Yeah. Yeah. Many times. Several times.
21:31
But, um, maybe the headline there is USC has a defense, so we'll see. Yeah. What about FSU and Boston College?
21:36
FSU, uh, obviously big favorite and coming off that Georgia Tech debacle in Dublin where they couldn't tackle anybody. Yeah, yeah. I mean, h- look, they got beat up in the trenches against Georgia Tech.
21:46
Like, that is a concern. It's a major concern.
21:49
I'd still think if I was looking at the side tonight, the only thing I'd be betting is Florida State just because of the massive line move that we've seen from that o- from that correction from the Georgia Tech loss.
21:58
So I, that would be the only way I'd go, Gil. I, you know, with being a Florida State grad, I'm just gonna, I'm just gonna be watching and hope they can get this thing back on track.
22:07
You might remember that wedding I was at in Miami just like a few weeks ago. I do. I do.
22:10
Part of the, part of the wedding gift I gave, uh, my buddy who was a FSU grad was an FSU National Championship ticket, so, uh, sorry. [laughs] That wasn't a gag wedding gift, I promise.
22:20
I thought, I, I just figured out you had betting ticket. I was like, "How'd you get tickets at the Florida State game?" Oh. I bet it out here. That's what I went out there for, man. Gotcha.
22:27
Um, we'll come back, a little baseball break with, uh, Mark Borchard from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. The Mets and the Braves getting close to the playoff spot.
22:37
It's next, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:21
Gotta be 21 years or older to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. It's Gil Alexander. Let me just say this about Sport Trade.
23:30
We've had the CEO, Alex Kane, on a Numbers Game before. Uh, super smart guy. We'll have him o- uh, we'll have him on again this week hopefully. Um, Sport Trade is going to change the game.
23:42
And again, now, it was one thing when they were just in New Jersey, but if they're gonna be five states deep, that is huge.
23:48
So, uh, if you are lucky enough to be in New Jersey, Colorado, Iowa, and coming soon Arizona and Virginia, good on you, and you should absolutely take advantage. If you're doing this right, you should absolutely do so.
24:00
We get tweets at Beating The Book. Mark Borchard standing by. Just wanna read some of these. Um, Mike Stacks, "Did they move you into Circuit because you gave away your sushi place to upper management?
24:08
I think all the shows you've done, you always sit on the right side for the viewing audience. It's throwing me off. LOL. Congrats on the move to VSiN Studio. You deserve it."
24:16
This is a theme of these tweets this morning, that I'm on this side and Kelly is on that side. Um, Kyle D., "Do y'all live in a suitcase with how often they have you moving locations? Congrats on the new digs.
24:27
However, I will miss the people watching in the background and Gil's nonstop wrestling match with his microphone cord." Oh, you noticed that. Uh, let's see. Uh, do, do, do. This is from, uh, Jeff Holdorf.
24:38
Um- Well, Miss Kelly's comments on the D's Patriots, "Con- congrats, guys, on the new digs." Thank you for that. Loser Larry says, "Switch spots. I like you on the right side when I watch TV, LOL."
24:50
Um, and then there's a few more of those. Here's one more. Michael Burns, "Can't comprehend Gil on the left and Kelly on the right. I'm flummoxed." I did not know this was gonna be a thing [laughs] a thing this morning.
25:02
Um, but apparently more than, uh, more than one of you, uh, think that, like, we have the proper sides of the bed, I guess, is the sort
26:50
of equivalent
29:38
if you're talking
30:57
The, the nature of that doesn't really manifest in the same way to me as it does the other five months. Do you view it that way at all? Um, it's a good theory. I don't know if you can...
31:10
For, the way I mo- I model it, like, game by game. I, I put it in a Monte Carlo simulation, so I've gotta come up with ratings for each team.
31:17
But it, it, it, it presents somewhat of a, a philosophical, uh, question in September, uh, as far as, like, you're rating a team like Pittsburgh, right?
31:28
Are they g- are they gonna use Steen as much as they would, say, in July? That's right. And so, so that's a really good... I, I believe in that philosophy.
31:36
It's just quantifying it, you'd have to go down the team, and you can certainly do it, uh, with your run rating going into the simulation, uh, whether it be defensively or offensively.
31:46
But the, it's, it's a really good, good idea, Gil. I like it. Well, it's just- Yeah... I, I guess just from a macro level, it's the point of also with a, you know, with an ever-increasing playoff format, right?
31:55
Like, if you're locked into the number, just let's say hypothetically, if you're locked into the number five wild card in the final week of the season, how does w- that club play that, right?
32:05
Uh, does a team like the Diamondbacks, who are chasing not only, uh, a wild card, they're in the wild card position, but they're obviously looking to secure that, but they're chasing the division as well.
32:16
They're chasing number one seed, right? They're chasing all these things. They will be highly motivated to go through it to every single game the rest of the way. So I think there's, there's just more factors.
32:25
There's a lot more in the mix in the month of September than just a cold, let's say we were in May, and we're just like, "Who's got the har- you know, who's got the toughest strength of schedule? Who's got the easiest?"
32:33
That kind of thing. So I just think it's something for folks to keep in mind when they're making their bets here down the stretch, that there's a little bit of a different alchemy. Last thing, we got 30 seconds.
32:42
We're, we're four weeks out of the postseason. Can't wait. You're still... Your, your numbers when you get to the postseason, what, what is it saying? Who, who's in the World Series per your numbers?
32:54
Well, I like the Dodgers, uh, just to kind of pull that out. To, to get there, to win the league championship series, I've got them at about 45%. Uh, they're just so deep, Gil.
33:06
And, and if you look at their bullpen, the way they've been able to use that bullpen. And of course, I'm, I'm banking that Yamamoto and Glasnow are gonna come back. So that's a big caveat, and that's a big question.
33:18
Mark, the answer is the Royals versus the Diamondbacks. I'm sorry. [laughs] Just, just for some of us who have those bets. Thank you, Mark. Always great to see you, man. Appreciate it. Thanks, Gil. Take it easy, man.
33:27
Mark Borchardt @basewinner. Kelly and I back with some NFL, all of our week one bets and futures as well, next.
33:33
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33:51
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34:18
Don't wait. Head to vsin.com/subscribe to take advantage of these offers and start betting smarter today. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bidlin live from Circa.
34:32
I don't even know what to do with ourselves. It's beautiful. There are walls. Oh, it's great. It's fantastic. It is great. Kelly, you were out for the last segment, and I read three different tweets from folks. Yeah.
34:43
And there's more now, 'cause now it's gaining steam. People are tripping over the fact that we're on different sides. [laughs] I, I, I'm trying to think of what the shot setup was.
34:54
I mean, we were on a split screen always because we were on, well, you know, opposite sides of the table, or what, perpendicular to each other at that table sort of. Yeah, it was a weird angle. Yeah, like a weird angle.
35:05
Yeah. But on screen it always would've been a split screen, where I still think I would've been on your, your right, and Gil on your left. Maybe I've got that wrong.
35:12
SquareBob2022, "You are supposed to be sitting on the other side of Kelly." It's getting more aggressive. [laughs] Tripp Tepper, "A fun solution for FedEx Cup final.
35:20
Top 32 compete in match play at East Lake, but candidly, the FedEx Cup playoff format, format might not be reparable." So I am not a fan of, uh, to, like, I love normal stroke play to bet on, but match play, I agree.
35:36
I do think if I was running things and for the playoffs, that would definitely be a part of it. Like, there is, you, you can get down to a final 32, a final 16 or whatever. Tournament.
35:45
And you play it like a bracket, right? Bracket. Yeah. Greg Lazowitz, "I'm sorry, Gil. I can hear you too clearly on the live stream. Can you tell, [laughs] can you tell Circa to turn up the, uh, slot machines?
35:56
Thank you." [laughs] And don't worry, there will be different things that people get here at Circa- Yeah... uh, that they didn't get at the D. And, like, Gil has made fun of me for years for typing very loudly.
36:06
Very loudly. Oh boy, this mic is very close to the laptop. [laughs] You're gonna get a lot of clicking and clacking in the background. Oh, and the Sigma Derby Horses have tweeted, "And why have you guys left us?
36:15
We are so lonely. Please come back." [laughs] #LetsRide. Don't worry, it's Labor Day. You'll have, you'll have some partygoers there. Appreciate all the, uh, the tweets. Uh, NFL week one now three days away.
36:27
Three days away. Remember we got the, uh, Chiefs and the Ravens, and then we got the game in Brazil between the Eagles and the Packers on Friday night. You prepared for Friday night NFL football? Yeah. Oh, yeah.
36:37
And then of course the rest of the games, not the rest of them, minus the Monday night, of course. What else am I doing on a Friday night?
36:42
By the way, that was the other thing we were talking about off air that we haven't talked about. Like, there is no Monday night doubleheader week one. Yeah. That makes me... I love them so much, Gil.
36:50
So a special numbers game investigation reveals that the Monday night doubleheader is when? Week- Week three... week three is the first.
36:57
'Cause I believe my first text to you was I, I was, uh, very angry over there not being in week one or week two, so we clearly must just not be doing it. Oh, God. I didn't bother to look at week three.
37:06
And then- Kelly was very upset about this. [laughs] Very upset about this. I love it.
37:08
It's one of the best things they've done to the NFL over the past, what, five years, adding the Monday night doubleheader at the beginning of the season. They should- For bettors, it's incredible...
37:15
they should, they should do it every week. They should, and I, I agree. They should do it every week. Every week. Um, 'cause that won't cause any scheduling problems at all. Um, okay.
37:22
And we'll, we'll just leave one on Thursday. We're not asking for two on Thursday. Week one bets that, that you have made.
37:28
I have bet every one of what I believe, and I'm just gonna telegraph the pass on the contest picks, 'cause I, I think you have to bet your pre-f- you, you know, your pre-flop convictions from the entire off-season.
37:39
And so I have, I've made bets in all five Circa Millions plays that I believe I will be submitting. Don't hold me to this, obviously.
37:48
Uh, you want perfect information, you wanna wait till Saturday, as late as you can, in case something terrible happens, let's say, in a practice with an injury or what have you.
37:57
Um, but the bets that I have made, the bets that are in pocket, and I think these will be my week one plays. Cardinals plus six, I already have this bet in.
38:05
Um, this is really related to my conviction that I don't, I'm not as high as the Buffalo Bills as some are this year.
38:12
I do think that the Stefon Diggs absence is bigger than most are sort of allowing it to be, uh, in their minds. Uh, he stretched the field at the very least, and allowed Josh Allen to go crazy to tight ends.
38:25
I'm not sure that's going to be the case now without somebody to spread the field on offense this year. So that is the one we share. Oh, no, no, we s- I see a second one you added that we share.
38:34
So, so Cardinals plus six. Anything six or more on the Cardinals, but I got the Cardinals plus six. And I do think w- the Cardinals are perhaps underrated conventional wisdom-wise- Yeah, I think they are...
38:45
heading into the season. I do, I g- That, that's a, uh, I mean, that's an offense that finished strong last year when Kyler Murray got back on the field.
38:51
I really don't think, expect to see much difference when you've got Marvin Harrison ba- on the team now. You got James Conner back. Like, that is a offense, I think as long as Kyler Murray's healthy, is a dangerous one.
39:02
Now, the defense is another story, but I, that's one you and I share, and I will likely be a contest, uh, contest pick for me too. I like it. Eagles minus two and a half.
39:11
Grabbed that in Brazil on Friday night against the Packers in the Eagles, quote-unquote, "home game." Um, I do think, uh, I'm a, I'm as big a Jordan Love guy as anybody.
39:21
Um, I was the one last off-season saying, "Hey, you hold the clipboard for as long as you have for years under the same offensive system, you sometimes turn out, most of the time turn out pretty good."
39:31
Um, but let's, uh, let's kinda, like, press the brakes a little bit on that. Eagles minus two and a half is still the play the first night of the season.
39:39
This one is, uh, it's still fascinating to me, because I think of all of our off-season discussion, I think I'm the bigger Eagles guy. Yeah. And for whatever reason, I just can't...
39:47
I definitely lean that way for this game, but I haven't made the bet. I just haven't made the bet. I don't, I, I'm, I'm holding back still. I mean, the issue with week one is nothing should surprise you. Correct. Right?
39:56
Yes. Yeah, and, and I think a lot of that goes back to the Packers, right? They ended the season with such a, on such a hot stretch with Jordan Love looking like one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
40:06
I think more of my question is, is, is that gonna completely carry over to this year or not? In week one, I, it might get a little dicey with that. This one I'm, uh, terrified of, as one should be. Me too.
40:16
[laughs] Because if this goes... Someone pointed this out on Twitter. I wish I could remember who. But s- someone said, "Everybody's gonna lose their minds when the Steelers blow out the Falcons," he said.
40:26
[laughs] And I think- They're not blowing them out... or let's say he said beat. Whatever the case- Yeah, yeah... the point remains, he's right.
40:31
Based on everything everybody has said the entire off-season, if the Steelers beat the Falcons, it's like, "Okay, we're back, NFL." I did lay the field goal, uh, with the Falcons. Yes.
40:41
Uh, the Falcons debut of Kirk Cousins, and when I mean debut, I mean really debut. We have not seen him in a Falcons uniform, uh, on the playing field. Coming off the Achilles rupture.
40:52
Um, given the three against the Russell Wilson-led Pittsburgh Steelers. So that is pick number three. I'm also kinda terrified and think I'm going to ba- uh, you know, have multiple survivor picks on the Saints.
41:04
I laid the four here before it got up higher against the Panthers. But again, would it, would it shock me if the Saints just laid an egg? Nothing sh- nothing would shock me, and nothing should shock you in week one.
41:19
So that's the fourth pick. And then the one that I probably like better than everybody, I grabbed the Jets plus four before it got any lower. Yeah. Good on you.
41:28
I just, the Trent Williams thing is getting dicier and dicier. He is adamant. Um, we've seen him be stubborn about playing.
41:37
In DC it was a, uh, it was a medical issue that he just, he na- he said, "I'm never playing for this team again." He never did. Now we have a, a guy who's unhappy in San Francisco.
41:47
He's not coming anywhere close to the playing field. This is not a Brandon Aiyuk situation where Brandon Aiyuk and the Niners, you kinda got the feeling were always gonna work it out.
41:55
I don't know if Trent Williams works it out in any kind of, you know, efficient time with the San Francisco 49ers. And I think the world of the Jets. They are stacked on each level of the defense.
42:06
They were great on defense when they had horrible quarterback play, so they had to be on the field more last year.
42:12
Now if Aaron Rodgers just gives them any modicum of quarterback play coming off his Achilles injury at age 40, I'll start...
42:18
And I love the Niners, but I'll take the Jets plus the points, thank you very much, and I think I'll add a, uh, money line play sprinkle as well. I, I like it.
42:25
That's another one I haven't, I haven't bet, haven't bet yet. I think its number's probably moved too far now that I probably stay off. That's a side I liked, though. I wish I would've bet it earlier.
42:35
Uh, as far as mine go, I feel like it was just a lot of grabbing numbers as, as we were, you know, talking games throughout the summer, especially the past few weeks, uh, as we were getting close to key number moves.
42:44
So Chiefs I laid two and a half with. That's pretty much out to three. I, I, I don't, I didn't really get that at two and a half, and there's still two and a halfs available on there.
42:52
I th- I still think, I think the Chiefs are a team that got better this off-season. I think the Ravens are a team that did get a little worse this o- uh, off-season.
42:59
We are going to be in Kansas City for this game, so laid two and a half with that one. I like that. Uh, Jags-Dolphins over 49. I think both these offenses, uh, could come out firing.
43:09
Questions on bo- on both defenses, especially Miami's to me. Um, Falcons two and a half. Uh, you know, same thing. We're on that together.
43:17
Um, wanted to try to grab at least a piece of that before it went to three, and I don't even know where we see that close at. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets to three and a half. Um, so two and a half there.
43:26
Uh, was able to get this teaser in. Yes, I'm laying -140, but Vikings up to seven and a half. We're now a one-point favorite pretty much everywhere. Bengals down to two and a half, um, when they were at nine.
43:38
So worth the six and a half there. I, I'm, I'm pretty dang confident in that one, but oh boy, teasers get dicey early in the NFL season when there's so much. La- like you said, Gil, we get a lot of surprises.
43:48
So teasers, parlays, I would always caution people a little bit with those. Uh, Cardinals, uh, I got six and a half. There are sixes out there. I would still bet it at six for sure. And then the Bucs, I laid three, Gil.
43:58
I laid three, and I think it might be my survivor play week one against the Commanders. Oh. Asked me if it, uh, bothered me that Jayden Daniels was at the LSU-USC game in Vegas yesterday. Oh, I thought this...
44:08
Oh, why didn't I text you? Did it bother you, Gil? Uh... Yeah, it bothered me a little bit. Little bit. I don't even like this. Little bit. Felt a little weird. Uh, we'll come back.
44:17
We'll look at every month, the most wins marketed baseball for the entire season, including the month of September of course. That's next.
A Numbers Game
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