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Sep 2, 2024
A Numbers Game | September 2, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | September 2, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Every ticket is in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
It's producer number nine, so much more than a producer, Kelly Bidlin, to my left.
0:23
Um, still to come this hour, still to come this hour, Mike Savitch will join us, uh, give all his bets that he's, uh, working on these days, not working on, but has, uh, across multiple sports. We look forward to that.
0:36
Uh, we gotta update these monthly baseball things too.
0:38
It's, it's, you know, we, we talk about them in the moment, but we never go back and look, oh, who won that month again, that kind of thing, and, and again, who we, uh, who we have here in August.
0:46
Um, the tweets are fascinating. First of all, John Massey, "Cubs season win total, it's alive?" Question mark. Yes, and I'm glad you brought this up 'cause this brings up a, a good point, I think.
0:58
Um, I made two season win total plays before the season started in baseball. One was the Padres over 80 and a half, gave my reasons why ad nauseam. Also, my number two was the Cubs season win total over 84 and a half.
1:11
It is now on pace to win as well. We'll see if it does. Cubs have been on fire, obviously. Um, they had the, I wanna say, the third-best record in the month of, third or fourth-best record in the month of, uh, August.
1:23
September, obviously, is where we are now, pardon me.
1:25
Um, I just wanna make a point about Major League Baseball season win totals, because with all the new-fangled bets that are now available across the sports betting world, the legal sports betting world, people obviously love their same game parlays.
1:39
We don't really advocate those, but that's just an example of what's available. Folks cross sport parlaying futures.
1:46
You can do all these different things, but old school baseball pre-flop season win totals is still something that is, it's not sexy, it takes six months to cash.
1:58
It's just the oldest school, the opposite of, you know, instant gratification kind of bet.
2:04
But in terms of the success rate, I believe you can have as good a success rate doing those as you can any other sports betting vehicle, and I mean that because one of the biggest things, you have 162 points of data, right?
2:17
So if your- Mm-hmm... handicap is good, you can overcome negative variance. You can overcome a bad stretch of three weeks for your team if you have an over.
2:26
Whereas in football, Kelly, if it's the NFL, right, it's a 17-game schedule, if you have a bad three-week stretch, you're probably toast, and in college football, even worse, right? It's even shorter.
2:36
So I just, it's, it's a, you know, it's, it gives me entree to just make that point about season wins.
2:41
It's probably the least sexy thing in sports betting, but like we say about Paul Carr with his Premier League picks, it moves the chains forward, uh, more often than not. Mm-hmm.
2:51
Um, this is from Spud Webb, not that Spud Webb, but a different Spud Webb. He says, "Get back on your side of the set. This new look doesn't look lucky," he said. [laughs] Lucky.
3:00
So you see the tennis picks are gonna go down the tubes now, is what he's saying. I, I'm shocked by this reaction. I, I did not anticipate- Yeah, yeah...
3:05
of all the things I did not anticipate that people would be tripping out about this.
3:08
Uh, especially since, like, I mean, I, I guess it's tough to tell what our exact setup over at The D was when you're watching at home, but I mean, it's really like if I was sitting at this corner, and then Gil was over in his current spot.
3:19
Las Vegas 514, "Yo, ne- no need to worry. Jayden will be fine." Why are we worried? It's just Vegas. [laughs] And then P- My, my first thought when I saw him- Yeah...
3:28
there was like, "Oh, man, I should've gotten the win last night." Well, this is where I feel like I'm 1,000 years old, right?
3:33
'Cause the football that I grew up on, there is no chance a rookie quarterback who has not played a game yet, seven days before the season starts, seven? Seven. Yeah.
3:46
Will, would be allowed to be in, you know, Las Vegas watching his alma mater. Well, yeah, I, I'd hate to connect these stories together- Yeah... but I think it's the same situation of why Ricky Pearsall was, was out.
3:57
Oh, man. It's now part of the NFLPA that they need four consecutive days off, I guess, during training camp at some point, so that's why, and it's, uh, yeah, you gotta worry what's gonna happen.
4:10
So I was in San Francisco this weekend, and I live about one and a half miles away from Union Square in San Francisco. Really?
4:15
Oh, yeah, San Francisco's this very, I mean, San Francisco, the city itself, is only seven by seven miles. Yeah, it is a- So everything is kind of close to everything.
4:22
But I, I live a, a mile and a half away, and, and they s- you know, middle of the day, broad daylight as people- In broad daylight... kept tweeting us.
4:27
In broad daylight, in the middle of Union Square, which is the shopping center, literally, of San Francisco, and I hate to say it, man, I wasn't, like, surprised in the least bit.
4:39
Like, that's how, San Fran- you used to be able to, like- Oh... walk in, in Union Square, no problem, nothing, and now, man, head on a swivel.
4:47
I- And Ricky Pearsall apparently was wearing a Rolex, I guess, and you don't do that. Yeah, that was, uh, I, I'll tell you- Not, and by the way, I, I'm totally not blaming him.
4:55
I'm just saying it's just a- [laughs] Yeah... it's just a- Gil says it's his fault... this is, this [laughs] See? There we go.
5:02
No, I'm not saying, I'm just saying it is, it is just such a, by the way, for those who missed it, San Francisco rookie wide receiver, Ricky Pearsall, shot, um- What, on Saturday?
5:12
Was it Saturday or, yeah, it was Saturday. Walks out of the hospital yesterday. My big thought with that, Gil, was, "Oh my gosh, I would've been in the hospital for about 13 months."
5:19
Well, they had the footage of him at, right after getting shot, being gingerly walked to the ambulance. I, like, through and through in the chest. Like, what are we talking about here? Hope he's okay.
5:31
Hope he's okay, and all indications are he will be okay. Yeah. Um, NFL futures we did not get to. Um, these are mine, and we have added the Mike McDonald Coach of the Year, thank you, sir, at the bottom there, 13 to one.
5:43
I didn't want it to get any lower. Bengals to win the AFC North was the very first play that we made. You made it, I made it, plus 175. Do I love it? Am I super confident about it? The answer is, eh, probably not.
5:54
[laughs] But plus 175 is good enough. We love the number. What's that? I said we love the number. We love the number. Yeah. That's right. We're still gonna get a little CLV, so can't hate that.
6:01
Steelers under eight wins, Steelers under seven and a half wins, both alternate, seven and a half wins being the more, uh- Sort of fundamental alternate number at plus 155.
6:11
For all the reasons we've stated ad nauseam, I do believe the Mike Tomlin streak of 17 consecutive, uh, seasons without a losing record comes to a halt.
6:22
I, I wrote in the, uh, in the updated betting guide, I mean 17 is one thing, but 18 would be crazy, right? 18 in a row. I just feel like it's... W- Russell Wilson is bad at football at this point.
6:34
Justin Fields, when we last saw him in the preseason, missing open guys. And when I say missing, just not even seeing open guys- Yeah... downfield. Vintage Justin Fields, if you will.
6:42
Uh, and then there's the fact that- No Jalen Warren early. Like you're- No Jalen-...
6:45
Najee Harris, who you know I was super high on, but- And it, it's just, it's also this, that his streak has taken on this mythical status of, and, and we don't then have the second thought of, "Well, how did they get this streak?"
6:55
And there's so much luck involved in that. Um, also they faced a bevy of backup quarterbacks last year- Mm-hmm... to get there.
7:02
Uh, their record in one-score games over the last three years has been unbelievably fortunate. And I know some people hear that and they're like, "Well, it's Mike Tomlin." Yeah, at some point that's not sustainable.
7:12
I'm sorry, it's just not. By the way, I was, I was having this conversation, uh, with someone last week about this. Do, uh, do you notice, I th- I think we, we ma- we made a change. Like the show made a change.
7:23
And we, you know we do, we do every once in a while with betting odds and stuff like this, but we called out everybody last year for it being like the lead line in every story.
7:31
Like, "Mike Tomlin's never had a losing season." Oh, yeah. Right. Became a running joke. We, we started that joke. Yeah. What's the... Yeah, yeah. Yeah. It became a running joke.
7:38
I haven't seen or heard nearly as many people- [laughs]... this off-season bring that up. Nearly as many. Uh, but- It's still alive, but- It's still alive as well. Puka Nacua, Offensive Player of the Year, 32-1.
7:48
Again, uh, I don't know if you know this, but Matt Stafford, Sean McVay, and Cooper Kupp, they all live in the same neighborhood in Los Angeles. So you bet the other guy. So I said, "That's it."
8:00
[laughs] No more of this, 'cause last year they just kept trying to feed an injured Cooper Kupp. I believe, uh, Kelly, I might have used the word, uh, his boyfriend, Cooper Kupp.
8:08
Um, they do a podcast together, Stafford and Kupp. This is the year they figure it out. Puka 32-1. Puka almost setting...
8:15
Not, not, not almost, setting rookie records last year and still not getting the Rookie of the Year because C.J. Stroud was C.J. Stroud. Uh, Jayden Daniels is my Offensive Rookie of the Year play. It's 7-1.
8:24
There was a stray remaining 7-1 over there at the D. Here at the Circus Sports Empire, I grabbed that a couple weeks ago. And Mike McDonald, Coach of the Year for the Seahawks.
8:32
I do feel that Mike McDonald's defensive approach, which is gonna be seen now by, you know, used by five or six different NFL teams, perhaps the Seahawks are the sixth of them, uh, it will get implemented.
8:43
It will take some time, but I do think in the end he will be the Coach of the Year. And, uh, according to Cleave's sort of guardrails, he fits the parameters- Yeah... of being a Coach of the Year candidate.
8:52
By the way- By the way, this is a noteworthy list because there have been things I have talked about in the off-season that I have actually not actually taken the time to go down there and make the bet yet.
9:02
So the Jets last undefeated. This is why you gotta have a, a bets to make list going. [laughs] That's your favorite one. That you can double-check. Come on, man. How did you forget?
9:08
Jets last undefeated and Patriots last winless.
9:11
I, while I'm making tennis bets every day, I, I'm so focused on that that inevitably there's a couple NFL bets that I actually haven't had in pocket yet, so I will make those this week, I promise.
9:19
Yeah, I think I've bet everything Patriots. [laughs] Most regular season losses under their win total, last winless team.
9:26
I think, I do think the, uh, the few, you know, fewest regular se- or most regular season losses and then the win total are kind of interesting, because it would suck to win one of those [laughs] and not the other.
9:36
'Cause if you have one team that, you know- Yeah... goes low, right? Um, so yeah, I'll start with the top of my list here. Bengals, we talked about, win AFC North. I only have two division bets.
9:45
Uh, Bengals in the North, Falcons in the NFC South at minus 130. Those are the only two. I will be looking Eagles, uh, in-season. I do have a note written down for that in-season to look at them.
9:58
Uh, but nothing pr- uh, nothing preseason here for me. Seahawks to make the playoffs, to make the playoffs also as a wild card team. Shop around, those numbers were wildly different. I was able to get plus 350 on that.
10:09
Jaguars to miss the playoffs. Uh-oh, someone's got to in the AFC. It's gonna be packed in the AFC East and the AFC North. Uh, win totals for me, Bears under nine, uh, under nine and a half, j- uh, paying 165.
10:22
So that is the alt high on the Bears to nine and a half, but bet it under. That is my biggest bet wi- uh, win total-wise. I mean, laying minus 16- uh, 65, so no big surprise there.
10:32
Steelers, I just did the under eight and a half, uh, but I will be looking to jump back in on this one at some point during the season. Uh, Giants under five and a half. That is the alt low under, plus 220.
10:43
Bear, uh, Bears, already said that one. Patriots, not currently listed, but I do have the under four and a half along with those other bets for them.
10:51
And then I got a lot of player futures, but we'll go over some of those tomorrow as we talk more- Is, is this more-... some players... Oh, wow, you do. You have a, you have a bunch. Mm.
10:57
Is, is this more preseason, season-long NFL bets than you typically have? Did you intend to have this many, or were you hoping to have less? Okay, great question.
11:07
No, I think I've accepted the fact that [laughs] when we spend an entire summer talking to smart people and talking to each other about these different type of bets and talk ourselves into bets, I'm okay with the list I have.
11:20
Honest, I, I think honestly last year I probably had even more than this. Yeah. I'm okay with this. I just don't sink a ton of money into the futures markets, like any of these.
11:28
I, I will have more money in play on week one than I will on mo- uh, most of these futures bets. I feel like this off-season lasted 1,000 days. So to, to not have any bets would be, like, ridiculous, right? Right.
11:41
You couldn't, couldn't mute it. It just forever, and so it, it, you know, inevitably you're gonna have, uh, many bets. We'll look at those MLB monthlies on the other side. Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
11:51
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12:04
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12:44
You gotta be 21 years or older to play, and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, live from Circa, people.
12:55
Circa, the main house. I didn't get to be here for the last read. Yeah. Like, the, the exchanges are so good. Like, I, there is... I- if we had access to them- Oh...
13:04
a- and Alex Cannon will probably have on later, later this week on the show and talk about this a bit more, but, like, this is, if you have access to them, they're almost the first place you should be checking.
13:12
I mean, why pay minus 110 when you could pay minus 106? Um, earmuffs, Derek Stevens, earmuffs. If it was, if there was an exchange here in Nevada, I would probably do it exclusively.
13:22
I, I mean, I, I think you still gotta have multiple places to shop, especially there's not always y- you know, if you're a bigger bettor, you can't always get as much down in the exchanges.
13:29
But I think for anybody, they should at least be checking it first. For sure. For sure. It, it, yeah, and there's all kinds of things happening, too.
13:37
There's now, there's sweepstakes betting, so Texas and California's in play. It's like the world is becoming a, uh, a bigger place.
13:45
By the way, I should point out, every day Kelly Bidlin, uh, puts together a beautiful rundown for me.
13:49
I, uh, I largely, what do you say, ignore, um, you know, some of your comments that I just notice, like, during the show. Hey, well, you give it, you give it a solid skim, okay?
13:58
[laughs] I, I don't know what comment you just picked up on. I, I talked about him earlier in the, in the, the show, in the first segment, but you go, Ar- you say, "Arizona wide receiver Tedarrell McMillan looks okay."
14:07
[laughs] Yeah, I'll say, he does. That is, he's, you put these little messages in there. There's little Easter eggs in there for you, Gil- Yeah, little Easter eggs... every once in a while, yeah.
14:16
Um- I swear, I had that game on, like, a t- second TV, was barely watching. I'm like, "This guy just caught another ball."
14:22
Oh, one thing that is annoying about Tedarrell McMillan, if you're watching an Arizona game, the announcers refuse to call him Tedarrell McMillan. They only refer to him as T-Mac the entire game.
14:33
Yeah, I just went with McMillan the whole time, so yeah. But it, T-Mac. T-Mac. [laughs] So you could go, if you didn't know what his name was, you could go Quarters. Right. Not, just call him his name.
14:42
Where's Tracy McGrady at? [laughs] That's right. Tracy McGrady's like, "Hey, that's, that's mine. I'm still here. Still alive." Yeah.
14:49
Uh, by the way, the, the tweets just keep coming in from folks, and I, we, we do appreciate it at Beating The Book.
14:54
Um, CB Moore, and I love that we're also, we, we've been around together so long there that our listeners feel this c- this great talking this way. He goes, "Holy blank, we're three days away from the Megapod," he says.
15:05
Um- Uh-oh... actually- Yeah... CB, if I may call you CB, uh, if we can get the, if I can figure out how to use our new-fangled link that we're using tomorrow, we might have the Megapod tomorrow for week one.
15:18
It'll usually be on Thursdays, but for week one, we try to do it a little earlier. So it could be tomorrow. What are you laughing at? The, the new-fangled link. It's literally a link, I believe, that Gil's been sent.
15:28
He just has to click on it and pull it up. It's not the link I'm worried about. [laughs] It's my setup I'm worried about. Yeah. Now, that's much more of a concern. Yeah. Yeah. Ken- Sorry...
15:35
you might, he might need some help Sorry about that. Ken, you're- He might need to get a new golf- Ken, you're invited to the apartment. [laughs] Uh, Hank's best friend, "I don't know what the problem is.
15:41
I'm watching you in the mirror." [laughs] He gets, then that way you see what I'm saying. Oh, shit, there you go. Yeah. And he says, "And I get European odds."
15:49
Um, Birdie Bets, "Gil sitting on the left side is frying your brain. Fading that Pittsburgh defense week one. Get back to that right side and get the mind clear again.
15:58
LOL, nice to see you and Kelly together in the same place. Great show." Thank you. As mu- as much as I am all in favor of our win total bets, I won't be shocked at all if we lose that week one bet.
16:08
Like, I, I don't think there's any way Pittsburgh's- No...
16:10
blowing them out, but if you had told me that Atlanta, uh, Atlanta's defense is not great, and that they s- their offense stumbles a bit out of the gates, and that the Steelers win 20 to 17- Yeah...
16:20
no, I won't be shocked by that.
16:21
All, listen, all you have to know, and this come, this might have come up already when I'm filming for the, the new Circa Survivor docuseries for- Oh man, he's really repeating the same things then.
16:31
[laughs] Well, no, 'cause I said to them, "Hey, could you be in our documentary again this year?" I said, "I, I said everything I had to say." Darn, now record this in case he needs to, uh, run it back later, okay?
16:39
Uh, [laughs] so, but one of the things that they asked me, where they're like, well, not, not that they asked me, but this came up, is in Circa Survivor, every year, this is not like an anomalous thing, every year within three weeks,
16:52
70-plus percent of the entries are already out. So- This time, yep... what does that, well, what does that tell you?
16:58
What that tells you is we have months to talk about the NFL, and 70% of the things we say might not be right. Right. Right? We just don't know.
17:07
I also think they'll, like, okay, so that is me, but I also go out of the gates ultra-aggressive. Like, I'm talking about tal- using the Commanders week one. Or not the Commanders, the Buccaneers week one. Mm-hmm.
17:18
'Cause I don't really want a piece of the Buccaneers down the stretch ever again. Well, that's why the Saints are in play for me, right? Yeah. By the way, does your head feel- Saints fan... does your head feel naked?
17:27
Do you feel like a wind on your head that you didn't before? It's, it's glorious. It's glorious. Fantastic. Poor Gil, though. He's like, he's at least three feet closer to me, so he- Oh...
17:34
wh- when I get fired up, oh boy. It's not pretty. His ears are gonna go soon. Not pretty. Uh, here's the review.
17:39
We have been doing this all year long, and we like to think, um, we're joking about this, but kinda not, that this has spurred more interest in baseball itself, baseball betting for sure, but maybe baseball itself for God's sakes- Yeah...
17:53
for those who are involved in this, in the sport of baseball than anything, which is the monthly most wins, um, ever-...
17:59
bets, the most l- the most wins markets, if you will, month by month, which again, good on William Hill Caesars, good on Circa, and for at least the first month of March/April, there's a few games in March, uh, DraftKings.
18:12
And then apparently DraftKings just retired from it after the first month. I don't know why they decided to do that. But, uh, William Hill Caesars and Circa has done it the whole way through.
18:19
Going back to March, April, that was our Guardians. There it is. Let's, uh, can we flash these up on the screen? Do we wanna do that? Yeah. This is- We'll roll through each one I guess here. Okay.
18:26
This was the one that we were one out away from hitting 65-1 on the Guardians. One out away, and the Guardians ended up finished third. So the Phillies were the winners ultimately. We don't even talk about that.
18:37
[laughs] The loss on the Guardians in March, April hurt more than the win- I know, yeah... in June. But anyway, so that's the Phillies won March, April. Um, 20 and 11 was their record. They outdistanced the Braves.
18:49
Remember, the Braves were great, uh, to open the season. The Guardians right there, one out away. Uh, in the month of May, we had the Guardians again at 16 to 1.
18:57
They finished in third again, but this one wasn't quite as dramatic a flameout. They didn't get to the last day. They got to the second to last. The Yankees edged the Phillies in the month of May.
19:07
Folks may or may not remember that. So again, it was the, it was the Phillies winning in March, April. It was the Yankees winning in May. And then when you go to June, this is the one we hit.
19:18
We hit the Astros in dramatic fashion at 17 and 8, uh, overcoming the Orioles and the Mets. So that's the one we won at both 25 to 1 and 17 to 1. So Phillies March, April, Yankees May.
19:30
Remember the Yankees, we thought at that point they were invincible. The Astros won June, and then you go to July. Astros with the tiebreaker. Love it. In July, it was the Diamondbacks winning at Circa.
19:41
They deadheated with the Mets at William Hill Caesars. Remember, there's different rules when it comes to a tie in the win column. Uh, we extended it nine clubs here because I had the Royals.
19:51
They finished ninth at 13 and 10. So that was the first time we weren't in it till really the very end. And then August, we, this was our worst month, August.
20:00
Even though the Mets end up finishing 10th or 11th in there somewhere- Had a, had a winning record... we were never in it. 11th, I did cut a team out to make it fit. Yeah, I think they were 11th.
20:09
We were never really in it. The Dodgers in dramatic fashion, in case you missed this over the weekend, they take the month of August. The Diamondbacks had it on their racket- Wow... and they just gacked it.
20:21
Uh, Dodgers 19 and 8, they win Circa outright if you had them. Short odds, but still they get it done. 'Cause first tiebreaker's losses. The first tiebreaker- Right, not run difference... at Circa is fewest losses.
20:34
The second is best run differential. Brewers would've beaten them on the run differential, but the, uh, fewest losses is the first tiebreaker. So Dodgers win it outright at Circa.
20:42
They deadheat with the Brewers in August. Why do we go through all that? Just to let you know a different team has won this every single month. Who won it in July again? Did I miss that?
20:52
Did I already forget who won it in July? I already forgot who won it in July. Uh, I already forgot, yeah. Um- Thank you, Diamondbacks... oh, the Diamondbacks. Yeah. Yeah, they were back-to-back. Thank you, Brett.
20:57
The Diamondbacks, of course. They were, were almost back-to-back and almost back-to-back to back.
21:00
So they were almost back-to-back, just like the Phillies were almost back-to-back March, April, and, and May, but it didn't happen, just like the Guardians were, were almost back-to-back but didn't win either of them.
21:09
So anyway, it's been a different winner every month, but I, uh, in case you missed it on Friday, I took the Diamondbacks 25 to 1 in the month of August.
21:17
Um, they get off to a nice start, an 11-run win over the Dodgers yesterday, which is second to the Cubs, who had a 13-run win. So, uh, off to a good start in the month of August.
21:26
But again, it gets back to my discussion that I had with Borchardt earlier, which is I, the strength of schedule thing, which is a hallmark, you know, number of games, strength of schedule, which is a hallmark of handicapping each of these, um, not so much for me, strength of schedule in the month of September because of all the moving parts and motivations, that kind of thing.
21:45
Um, as far as m- These are the odds for September. These are the odds that we have. Yeah, grab that real quick there. The Dodgers were the short shot, thank you, Kelly, at five to one. Phillies were seven to one.
21:51
Yankees eight to one. Orioles eight to one. Braves nine to one. A lot of that has to do with not only the, you know, strength of each ball club, but their strength of schedule, and I just don't buy into it as much.
22:01
I couldn't believe the D-backs were 25 to 1, and apparently I, uh, I might have moved that to 16 to 1 with my bet perhaps. So 16 to 1 is where they close. So whatever you have, good luck.
22:11
Final month of the season to do this. But this market, we talked to, you know, the old school pre-flop MLB season win totals being this tried and true great thing.
22:19
This has overcome everything in terms of baseball bets for the year. Nothing has been as great as this. It's been fun. I, I think for us- Yeah...
22:28
I think for, for people watching, um, now we just gotta get, I, we gotta get a little money involved for the players, you know? Make it something important like the in-season tournament in the NBA.
22:36
Oh, you wanna actually- That's what I want, yes... institute, make it a part of the system basically. Yes. Best record in Major League each month. Get a paycheck. Yeah, good luck with that.
22:44
Pete Butak, his thoughts on college football week one from College Football News. That's the Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:46
Cannot believe that it is here, and again, yes, uh, we'll get into the routine of things not only here. This is our last Monday before guessing lines begins. Bum, bum, bum. Yes. We always start- Let's go...
23:57
guessing lines between week, uh, before week two. Uh, it'll be Kelly and me. Um, Schmuckers can't, can't- We couldn't work it out with the mishpucha. Not the mishpucha's fault, not me, not our fault.
24:09
No one's fault specifically, just couldn't be worked out.
24:11
Uh, but guessing lines will begin week two, uh, this coming Monday, but that is preceded by the first mega pod, again, which should be out tomorrow because Kelly says I'm capable of hitting a link and making it happen.
24:22
[laughs] So, uh, we're good. Hey, I didn't re- I didn't know about your setup, okay? Yeah. Don't blame it on me. I forgot about that part. That is important. I did wanna make, uh, one more shout-out.
24:31
We had a, a great crew over at The D who's helped us, and they might be back. Crews are still a little bit up in the air right now.
24:36
Uh, but Matt, Larry, Sean McCo- the great, legendary Sean McCollum, uh, Chris Foster, excellent work over there.
24:42
But man, it is just funny how we, you circle back here and just some of the great people we get to work with again.
24:48
I got Isaiah Wrinkle right now back there TD'ing this morning, who was the great tr- technical, uh, technical director and graphics operator during our prime time action run.
24:58
You've got Brendan Mendez doing graphics back there. Brendan Mendez. Who used to do graphics for Gil- Wow... like six and a half years ago.
25:06
Awesome to have Brendan back on the team, and then Darnell on audio been killing it this morning. Uh, it also helps him in a little bit easier job when you don't have slot machines going off in the background.
25:14
Are Matt, Sean, and Larry still in the closet back there at The D? Well, we're, we're running shows out there. Yeah. Okay. They're, they're doing some work out right now. All right. Hey, guys. Sorry you're back there.
25:22
Yeah, well, they're, they're- I miss you... they're just hiding. They don't have to be bothered by anyone. They've got an industrial strength air conditioner back there for them. True dat. True dat.
25:29
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he comes to us as the emperor of CollegeFootballNews.com, a trove, a treasure trove of college football content. Uh, it's also courtesy of the progressive guest line.
25:39
You can follow him on Twitter at Pete Futak, F-U-T-A-K. It is Peter Futak, everybody. Hey, what's happening, man? We're men of a certain age. Uh, you mentioned the NFL.
25:50
I, I don't know, yesterday just all day felt like we should've been watching Giants-Eagles and then get the Pat Summerall read for Murder She Wrote.
25:58
[laughs] And then, you know, Lindell versus Wielander in the US Open final, and then I might start thinking about doing my homework.
26:05
I mean, it just, it, the, the, just Labor Day Sunday just, it, it should be NFL yesterday. I know it's a setup and I know we've got like six months of this, but just yesterday was like, "T- yeah, let's go already.
26:16
Come on. Get this thing moving."
26:18
You, you did something off air that I would like to out you on because it is like, you know, we wait all, all off season for football, both pro and college, and you're already complaining about the week two college slate.
26:28
[laughs] Already. Yeah, it sucks. It sucks. It's, it's a bad slate.
26:31
Well, well look, ye- last week, and I know y- you always dog me because I'm corrected by being a Power Five snob, well, last week I was an FBS snob, because you had one loss by the FBS versus the FCS, and they were killing these FCS teams.
26:47
So you had a whole slew of really bad games, and also really, really easible, easy winnable games betting-wise, because pretty much if you took all the FBS teams, you're all right.
26:59
Because over the, the long haul of it, they were just annihilating these FCS teams.
27:04
This week you just got bad, you have Texas and Michigan, which kind of makes everything all better, but you have a lot of other eh games outside of that because, uh, out of the 80 games we got this week, there's not a whole lot to lo- I mean, you can have like South Carolina, Kentucky as our prime time game on Saturday night.
27:20
It's a little, little lacking this week. That, Pedro, is why we do a little something we like to call bet on these, 'cause without that, I'm totally against it. Hey, everybody's just as good as Alabama money.
27:29
We're all good here. Money's money. Exactly. Um, I'll, let me ask you the, the, you know, the go-to question. What is your single biggest takeaway or takeaways from week number one? Uh, it continues.
27:40
I, uh, we're killing time. It's, it's Georgia and Ohio State. Just they're, they're gonna sl- by the way, I got the Ohio State final score exactly right. So they're, they're, they're just gonna kill everyone.
27:50
Georgia's gonna kill everyone. I mean, Clemson's good. You asked off air is it just Miami?
27:55
Well, you know, in the ACC, well maybe, but Clemson's still got a whole lot of very, very, very good players, and Georgia just, just stuffed them like Clemson wasn't going anywhere.
28:05
Clemson can still make the college football playoff. I mean, they still could be, uh, win the ACC or come in second and get into this thing. And again, Georgia just looks fantastic.
28:14
So, uh, it's a long college season now 'cause the national championship's not till January 20th, and there's a whole slew of things that can happen.
28:22
Uh, but the takeaway still remains the same, is that, you know, it's, I mean, I know everyone's gonna still like Texas and everything, but it is Georgia, it is Ohio State, and that's it.
28:30
But the other big takeaway is it, like USC's now a player again. You know, if you wanna look at, you know, Notre Dame's a player again.
28:37
Uh, Notre Dame's probably in it now after that win of Texas A&M, 'cause you look at their schedule, they're at more than two losses on there.
28:43
So, uh, all of a sudden we're talking on September 2nd and this thing's already starting to shape, take shape a little bit here.
28:49
I was gonna ask you what, what, what was more significant, maybe there's no way to answer the question, between Notre Dame's win and USC's win as it pertains to a college football playoff.
28:57
You could have at that, but I'm, I'm also curious about Miami and the ACC. It was not a great weekend for the ACC, but it certainly was at the top, if you will, for Miami and Cam Ward, who looked fantastic- True...
29:08
against Florida. Hard to tell what's, you know, where Miami good and Florida bad meets in that spectrum, in that continuum. Um, but what about that? What, what was the most significant win when you look at it? Hm.
29:20
Was it USC's? Was it Notre Dame's? Was it Miami's from a conference perspective and their case?
29:24
Uh, it was USC, because Notre Dame can, you look at the rest of their schedule, even if they lost to Texas A&M, they probably weren't losing again until, you know, they, they dealt with Florida State later and then USC at the end.
29:35
But USC winning this, 'cause again, think of it this way. This is where it goes to Michigan-Texas this weekend, where I do think the loser of this is probably gonna end up being out.
29:43
Because when you think of the college football playoff in general, it's three losses i, is not gonna get it done. You gotta go 10 and 2 at, at maybe 11 and 2. You gotta only have two losses there.
29:53
And USC, now you look at their schedule, they got a little bit of a defense there. There's not a lot there on that slate that they can't handle. They got Penn State. They do have Notre Dame.
30:03
So again, they might lose twice. They're not gonna lose three times if that defense is the real deal. That was the win that they had to get over.
30:09
And for LSU, they're kind of hosed now 'cause there's a whole lot of traffic in front of them. So, uh, for Notre Dame, though- Now they're, just lock them into the five seed.
30:16
And it's gonna take something catastrophic for them not to get there. Um, but going back to your Miami question real quick, missed that one.
30:23
I, I just kind of thought that Florida was gonna rise up at home and this was gonna be, "Oh, we're SEC," kind of thing. Nope, Miami looks fantastic.
30:30
And at the very least, you know, again, you win the ACC Championship, you're probably the three or four seed. And right now Miami, uh, Clemson, and that's pretty much it, 'cause the rest of the ACC kind of looked eh.
30:41
Uh, but let's see what Florida State does tonight against Boston College and go from there. All right, we talked about this earlier in the show, Heisman.
30:47
Since the year 2000, the only non-quarterbacks to win the Heisman Trophy, 2005 Reggie Bush, 2009 Mark Ingram from Alabama, 2014, uh, pardon me, 2015 Derek Henry from Alabama, and then 2020 Devonta Smith, um, from the Crimson Tide at wideout.
31:05
Those are the only four non-quarterbacks to win the Heisman Trophy. Uh, obviously McMillan for Arizona, Tedrow Mc- uh, Tedrow McMillan had just an unbelievable, uh, first game this season.
31:17
Yeah, I think he just scored again. God, that was great. [laughs] You know, and I was talking about him at 65 to 1. But obviously there was other examples, um, that happened in college football.
31:25
Jeremiah Smith for Ohio State looked fantastic. Ashton Gentry for Boise State did. Could this be a year, like do you think that...
31:34
And, and I, and I, I didn't even mention, which I did in the first segment, but I didn't mention Travis Hunter.
31:39
Yeah, he- The theory, the theory being, Pete, I'm sorry, the theory being Colorado's gotta get to a bowl, Arizona's gotta get to a playoff.
31:45
Like these teams have to do a certain, they have to get to a certain threshold for these guys to be considered. Do you, as someone with a Heisman vote, buy into that? Uh, considered, yes. Winning it, no.
31:55
And it, there's two different things here. 'Cause again, we can't make a Heisman winner necessarily. It's gotta be something, you know, bizarre. It, it's Jalen Milroe, and he, he showed it again.
32:05
Western Kentucky mi- it might win Conference USA title, and they might be just weird enough that they could get that, that number 12 seed, uh, in the college football playoff. And Alabama ripped through.
32:16
You asked about the, the big stories this weekend. Alabama's good too. They ripped through it like it wasn't even there.
32:21
In this offense, in this Kalen DeBoer offense, Jalen Milroe's stats are gonna be just unbelievably amazing, and he's gonna have the big games, and he's gonna have the big moments.
32:31
So just kind of look at this list here of, uh, Heisman guys you have on this list, and it could be Dillon Gabriel. I think Oregon's gonna lose a bunch of times. And Carson Beck, he's not gonna have the numbers.
32:40
Cam Ward's gonna be kind of fashionable maybe. Uh, on this list, Milroe, uh, a- after next week it might be Quinn Ewers, 'cause if he lights up the Michigan defense. Uh, but it's Jalen Milroe.
32:50
If you can get that 11 to 1 right now, that's gonna go u- up fast. Wow, Futak resolute on Milroe. You have been all off season though, I must give you that. I, I picked him last year. Yeah. I thought he should.
32:59
I mean, it had to be Deacon Daniels, but, you know, if you really broke it down, Milroe actually deserved it last year even though it was Daniels obviously. But this year it's all there for him.
33:08
FSU and BC tonight as we close out week one, how do you see this? Blowout? You, you hate it when I say this, but stay away. Uh, because we don't know, we don't know exactly if Florida State's gonna come back roaring.
33:17
I kind of just sheepishly like Boston College to cover, but not by a whole lot. Florida State could come out and say, "You know what?
33:23
That week one thing was just a, uh, just a bad day," and they just come out and roll tonight. So again, stay away, but kind of like Boston College a little bit. Peter Futak from College Football News.
33:32
Maybe if SAU- FSU can learn how to tackle, that'd be a start. That'd be nice. Oh, that'd be a start. Thank you, Pedro. Appreciate it. Later, guys.
33:38
Uh, coming back with Mike Somich, Somo Bombing, his picks, multiple sports, next right here on The Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Don't forget to check out our new website, vsin.com. I say new, but really it's been there the whole time. It's just a new look, new-ish look. Okay, it's been around a while.
34:04
Um, all kinds of sports, all kinds of bets from everybody. JBT on college football week two, uh, he's on there. And, uh, some Adam Burke week two thoughts in college football.
34:15
Tyler Shoemaker, week two in full effect on the website now that I, uh, check out the front page. And Zach Cohen with his US Open tennis picks.
34:22
Zach will be on the show, uh, to join me tomorrow, uh, join Kelly and me tomorrow with his US Open thoughts as the quarter finals commence tomorrow. All of that at vsin.com. Check it out.
34:34
Oh, and front and center of course, the new VSIN lineup announced as well. Bill Adee writing an article on our whole li- uh, lineup. After this show, by the way, Kelly, uh, Stormy with Money Moves.
34:44
Yeah, I, you know what, I'm, it, we did not talk about this enough today. Sorry, we got very excited about our, about our move to Circa. Yeah, God forgive us. Uh, but a incredible new lineup at VSIN.
34:55
Head over to vsin.com to check out the whole thing, uh, what we got going. But new morning show started off awesome this morning, was listening to a lot of that as I was prepping for, uh, our show.
35:04
And yeah, we got Money Moves coming up later, Follow the Money in the afternoon. So little bit of new, a little bit of old, but a great lineup set up, uh, to go here on VSIN.
35:11
It's not Money Moves, Kelly, it's Money Moves. Do you think they're familiar with the fact that's a Cardi B song when they name that show? Uh, I'm gonna go with partially yes. Hm. Okay. Partially yes.
35:22
I'll ask Stormy when she gets here. Money Moves. Stormy, and I think, uh, Jeff Schwartz is with her today- Yes... as well. Mm-hmm. And, uh- Uh, so look forward to that... our next guest will be with her quite often.
35:31
That is correct. Um, Mike Somich joins us. Somo Bombing, courtesy of the Progressive guest line @somo bomb18. How you doing, Mike? Doing good. Doing good. Looking forward to this new lineup.
35:42
Looking forward to jumping on Money Moves. I'll be with, uh, Stormy Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of this week before heading out to Vegas for week one of NFL.
35:49
And, uh, Matt and I are ready, uh, to, to run it back this season with Ready, Set, Bet. That's gonna be 4:00 to 7:00 Pacific, 7:00 to 10:00 Eastern on Saturday.
35:56
And that'll include the inaugural contest show as well this year. So we'll be back- Nice... doing the contest show with all the picks and all the survivor talk that you want.
36:03
Uh, it's gonna be from 9:00 to 10:00 Eastern on Saturday. Maybe you guys will be the narrators of the, uh, Circa Survivor docuseries once again. I was gonna say spoiler alert. [laughs] Get roped into it, man.
36:12
Just getting roped into that one. [laughs] Ready, Set, Bet, not a Cardi B song by the way. Not all the shows are named after Cardi B songs. [laughs] Yeah, we missed out on it. No.
36:19
Um, all right, let's start with, since you bring up football, why don't we start with week one in the National Football League, and, and let us know again, I think you have about four picks here. What did you land on?
36:29
Yeah, I've got four of them that, that, that are on here. I'm sure we'll add some more to the card as we go. Uh, I heard you guys talking about Cardinals-Bills. I agree with you.
36:36
I lean toward the Cardinals and the points here, but I actually like over the total more. I think this is going to be an explosive Cardinals offense.
36:42
Uh, when you get a healthy Kyler Murray here, you get the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., and I've got some real questions about the back end of this Bills secondary. Uh, the Milano injury, massive for them.
36:51
Uh, their, their difference in EPA when facing passing plays, huge with him on and off the field. He'll be out for the season. I think that's a big hit to this Bills team. And, uh, the Cardinals defense isn't very good.
37:00
That's gonna be their Achilles' heel this year. It's gonna be can they outscore teams? I think this is a good spot to take the over, so played over 48 in this spot.
37:07
And then my favorite bet of the week is another over here. We're gonna go over 41 and a half. Broncos-Seahawks.
37:13
Look, this is totaled like it's last year's teams, and I totally understand that, but you've got a new offensive coordinator in Grubb in there for Seattle. He was at Univ- University of Washington last year.
37:22
He plays significantly faster of a pace than what we saw from the Seahawks last year. He also likes to stretch the field.
37:28
I, I think you're gonna see much more three wide sets, much more shots down the field, which should help open up the Seattle offense.
37:33
And I think Mike McDonald's gonna have a phenomenal season for Seattle from a defensive perspective.
37:38
Just not sure it's gonna be week one that they're gonna be able to work in all of those new schemes from a defensive side. I think it's gonna take a little time to go, and I'm a little higher on Bo Nix than the market.
37:47
Have a Rookie of the Year ticket there. We talked about that a couple weeks ago. I think he has some success early in the Seattle defense struggles. So let's go over the 41 and a half.
37:54
You can get that in one spot, so make sure you shop there on that Denver-Seattle game. Uh, you're very high on the Browns, as I recall, but you see this Browns-Cowboys game going under. I have cooled on the Browns, Gil.
38:05
[laughs] Ooh. It's, it's been a rough preseason from a Browns perspective. One of my big parts of the handicap was that offensive line was really banged up last year. I thought they would be healthier.
38:14
And you just needed Deshaun Watson to be a middling quarterback for this team to have a very good shot at the division. Well, fast-forward to the end of the preseason, the offensive line banged up again.
38:22
Deshaun Watson, just who knows what you're gonna get from him. I've lost any real confidence in him being even middling at this point. I do like the under in this spot.
38:30
I think people forget how good this Cowboys defense was at times, specifically rushing the passer. Now with a banged up Browns offensive line week one, I think the Browns struggle to, or the Cowboys...
38:39
The Browns struggle to move the football, and I think this Co- this Browns defense could be top three, top five in the NFL as well.
38:44
Uh, it's found this total sitting at 42 and a half, so I'll, I will go, uh, under the Browns-Cowboys 42 and a half here. All right. One more NFL before we go to college. What do you got? This one is tough.
38:54
I, I'm gonna play the Raiders plus three and a half in the contest, for sure. I'm not sure if I'm gonna bet this, because I have Raiders win total season over, and Chargers win total season under.
39:04
So this is one of those unique week one situations where it's a high leverage game for a bet that, or two bets that I already have a unit on each.
39:10
The question for me is how much do I wanna put into that preseason idea that the Raiders are better than expected, the floor is higher for them, specifically with Minshew. I'm really down on this Chargers team.
39:19
They don't have any weapons on the outside. And the weakness for the Raiders is the secondary. Can the Chargers beat this Raiders secondary is the big question for me. I don't think they can.
39:28
I think the Raiders match up well against the run. They should also be able to pressure the passer in this spot here. So I like the Raiders plus the three and a half.
39:35
Again, still available three and a half in a couple places. I like the Raiders on the money line in this spot. I have not personally bet it yet, because I have those two win totals.
39:44
Uh, I will definitely be using Raiders in the contest, and I, I probably end up at the window on the money line, the Raiders here as well. All right. College football, week two, Texas and Michigan.
39:52
This is seven now in favor of the Longhorns. Um, I'm trying to sort of fight the feeling of laying the, the number here, uh, because it looks short to me. You actually got it at six.
40:05
Yeah, we talked about this yesterday, uh, on The Handle when JVT and I were hosting. 11:00 AM West Coast, all these lines came out, and I immediately bet this minus six with Texas for a couple reasons.
40:14
First off, there's no way this doesn't go through seven by the time we kick off here. You can still get some six and a halfs in the market.
40:19
I think this is gonna be seven and a half, eight for Texas by the time we kick off. If that's the case and you don't love the Texas side, you can buy back and get a s- pretty sweet middle here with Texas and Michigan.
40:28
I watched that Michigan offense. They were atrocious, like very, very bad yesterday. I, I...
40:33
Like, if you look at the drive charts, how they scored, they can't throw the football, and that's gonna be a huge problem for this Michigan offense against Texas, who, yes, Michigan's defense is good, but Texas is going to have some success offensively in this game.
40:45
I think Texas covers any number under seven, so six and a half, if you can find it, take it. I took the six. I do think we end up closing closer to seven and a half or eight here for Texas. I like a sweet middle, Mike.
40:54
I don't even know what that means, but I like one. [laughs] Uh, if we could set that up. Not gonna touch that. [laughs] No, don't.
40:59
Um, Colorado, I'm assuming you've seen all you need to see, that it is, you're gonna get Shedeur, you're gonna get Travis Hunter just being unbelievable on offense, but the defense is what it is, and so you're going over here with Colorado?
41:11
I thought this Colorado-Nebraska total should be in the low 60s, and we're sitting here at 57 and a half in a lot of places. I, I love the over here. Nebraska is not the Nebraska of yesteryear.
41:20
They can move the football. We saw them, their offense be explosive here in week one. Colorado is the same Colorado, right? They're not gonna play a lick of defense, and they're gonna move the football on offense.
41:29
The, both these teams also played a significantly faster pace than I think people realize. Uh, I'm shocked this isn't low 60s. So yeah, give me the Colorado-Nebraska over 57 and a half. All right. One more college?
41:40
Yeah, Oregon minus 18. I'm surprised this one's on my card, but this was a 24-point line against Boise State. What changed in weeks one that makes this a six-point move?
41:50
Are we downgrading Oregon six points for playing an Idaho team and that they didn't play great against, but are gonna be fired up week two against Boise State?
41:57
Are we upgrading Boise State, who barely covered the opening line and did not cover the closing line against Georgia Southern and, by the way, looked very porous on defense? Uh, I, yeah, give me Oregon minus the 18.
42:08
I think this is way too big of a move. All right. And baseball. Four weeks left in the season.
42:13
Before we get to your two plays, by the way, how are you feeling about your, uh, our, uh, our Intravision Futures competition show to show? You have the Royals to win.
42:23
You and Matt, I believe, have the Royals to win the AL Central. Did you keep that? We did. We kept it the whole way, and, uh, it's starting to pay off a little. Big game today. We got the Guardians today.
42:31
Need a Royals victory. Uh, this is a bet that I made preseason. Matt and I both have win total Royals over. That's already cashed.
42:37
This is a team that we were just higher on, and so we felt like it was a good sh- good way to take a small shot, not a massive one in the, in the, in the contest, but at least a small shot that we thought we could win.
42:46
So we've, we've held the Royals the whole way through. Yeah, we have the Braves to miss the playoffs, so this might be a mano a mano between us here down the stretch. Oh, let's go. Let's go. Let's go.
42:54
[laughs] All right, what two, what two did you play? A couple first fives today? Yeah, a couple first fives for me. First one, uh, Orioles team total over two and a half.
43:01
Uh, it's Chris Flexen day for the White Sox, and the, uh, the weather in Baltimore is quite nice. I'm shocked this isn't three and a half.
43:07
You can get two and a half, over two and a half minus 125 first five for the Royals, so absolutely love that one. And then at some point, the market needs to stop sleeping on Osvaldo Bido.
43:17
Uh, since he became an actual starter, he has a sub three ERA for the, uh, for the A's. The last five games, he's given up two earned or less and gone at least five innings in each of those starts.
43:27
He's not gonna go very deep. He's a guy who came in from the bullpen.
43:30
But if he keeps going five plus and he keeps giving up two or less and you keep getting plus money on him first five, I will keep running back to the bank here. So, uh, give me, give me the A's first five plus 125.
43:42
Uh, love the price as well. Stop sleeping on him, Gil. I don't know how many times I gotta say this. You, you keep having to say it. Osvaldo Bido, man. Um, by the way, you bring up the White Sox 'cause you're fading.
43:50
Uh, White Sox in August, 4 and 21 with a minus 58 run differential. [laughs] Now on the season, 31 and 107. 31 and 107. What, what are ticket prices like? Um- Not even their worst month, Gil. Not even their worst month.
44:07
[laughs] I think last week, last month was their worst, wasn't it? Yeah. Yeah. By the way- Yeah, they, uh, they didn't win a game, uh, after the All-Star break.
44:14
It was funny, the, the team, the countries that won gold medals versus the games won versus White Sox could have been a prop, and, uh, the countries won- [laughs]... would've won. Run differential currently minus 291.
44:24
I'm told that's not good. Thank you, Mike. Appreciate it. You got it, guys. Ready. Set. Bet. Uh, Money Moves is next. Stormy Bonna Toni right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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